WEBVTT - Fed Looks at Possible U.S. Digital-Coin

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So Tim totally bummed me

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<v Speaker 1>out by talking about the latest variant. Thank you so much. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, Bush. Gotta brush up on your Greek alphabet,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, start practicing funny not funny whatever the

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<v Speaker 1>next letter is. Lot's going on, so let's get to it.

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<v Speaker 1>Um And just for those of you keeping track, as

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<v Speaker 1>we are always at bloom byg Global Cases, when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to COVID top three hundred sixty six point nine

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<v Speaker 1>million deaths past five point six million, and the vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>more than ten billion shots and ministered Tim around the world, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go to Dr Ian lust Bader, clinical professor of

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<v Speaker 1>Medicine at n y U Lane and the Medical Center.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us on the phone from New York City,

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<v Speaker 1>as he does on most Fridays. Dr Let's bet I

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<v Speaker 1>want to start with what Caroline I were talking about

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<v Speaker 1>just a couple of minutes ago. This omicron sub variant

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<v Speaker 1>be A dot two, appearing to be even more contagious

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<v Speaker 1>than the original fast spreading strain. That's according to UK

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<v Speaker 1>health authorities. We do know though, that vaccine booster shots

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<v Speaker 1>remain an effective shield. How are you reading into this? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about the possibility of more mutations and this

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<v Speaker 1>O macron variant definitely Happy Friday. By the way, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you is a is yay we got here, we

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<v Speaker 1>got here, we made It is definitely a split off

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<v Speaker 1>of the original O macron or maybe sort of coevolved

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<v Speaker 1>with it. The genetics are are slightly different than uh

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<v Speaker 1>some of the other mutations that we've seen. The good

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<v Speaker 1>news is it appears that people who have had O

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<v Speaker 1>macron will be resistant to the b A two variant.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh So that's good news. It also it does seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be maybe slightly more contagious, and we can talk

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<v Speaker 1>about what that means, but certainly not more lethal. So

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<v Speaker 1>overall this does appear as viruses overall tend to mutate,

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<v Speaker 1>tend to be a little more infectious, tend to be

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<v Speaker 1>a little less lethal because viruses are more successful if

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<v Speaker 1>they don't kill their host. So I don't think this

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<v Speaker 1>is a meaningfully worrisome development in a way, not completely surprising.

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<v Speaker 1>We're seeing some uh indications in California, Texas, Washington of

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<v Speaker 1>the B two strain, more common in Europe, in Denmark

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly in the United Kingdom. UH. And it may

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<v Speaker 1>replace just as O macron replaced delta. The B A

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<v Speaker 1>two strain may replace h O macron. But at this

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<v Speaker 1>point it is not killing more people. And basically the

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<v Speaker 1>same approach that we're using, whether it's a vaccines, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>masks are very reasonable. We have a medication ever sheld

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<v Speaker 1>for I mean to compromise patients, which is becoming somewhat

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<v Speaker 1>more available. It's two shots their monoclonal antibodies. So for

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<v Speaker 1>people who are really at risk, they should talk their

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<v Speaker 1>to their doctor about this because that is available for prevention,

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<v Speaker 1>not just treatment. How are you doing? You still sound

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<v Speaker 1>still just a cold or I'm I'd say I'm n

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<v Speaker 1>bettery voice still not a hundred percent. Uh, it's interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>We were not really seeing sort of long COVID symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>from omicron. But but who knows, you know, with UH

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<v Speaker 1>will have to track these things further out. I'm feeling fine.

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<v Speaker 1>What about you? How are you doing? I'm fine. I

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<v Speaker 1>never had any symptoms. Um, I had a million negative tests,

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<v Speaker 1>including my PCR test which I took on the same

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<v Speaker 1>day that I took a rapid that that rapid came

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<v Speaker 1>back positive. Maybe you had Who knows? Tim? And Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Lester thinks I know. I don't think I had it,

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<v Speaker 1>but I don't know, and I'm continue to get tests.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, now, i'd just be careful, so um, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't. I wouldn't worry at this point. I'm not right.

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta just live life. We all do, but just carefully. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think it's a given ian that we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to get a fourth vaccine dose booster at some point?

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<v Speaker 1>There aren't fering it into Israel And certainly for people

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<v Speaker 1>who are really at risk, the elderly having significant problems,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, no compromised, it probably is not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be harmful. It's very unclear. Four doses of alpha for

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<v Speaker 1>really O macron or b A two very unclear how

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<v Speaker 1>protective it will be and how long that protection will last.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you're at risk for ninety days, think about

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<v Speaker 1>things like eversheld, which is astras eneca, think about early

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<v Speaker 1>packs LVID. We do have that of available for people

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<v Speaker 1>who are at risk who do who test positive and

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<v Speaker 1>have mild to moderate symptoms. So there are various options available.

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<v Speaker 1>The fourth vaccine um I think is less well proven,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly than paxlovid, which lowers hospitalization and severe illness, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>so that is certainly very reassuring. Hey, I'm wondering dr

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<v Speaker 1>less better about masks because we did learn that in

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. They have removed it into our mask mandate

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<v Speaker 1>for offices and gems that still people have to prove

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<v Speaker 1>that they're up to date on vaccinations and boosters. That

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<v Speaker 1>starts February one. Uh, what do you think that's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>the spell for New York City, New York State, and

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<v Speaker 1>other areas of the country. So again, depending on the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of mask, how you wear it. Uh, there are

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<v Speaker 1>so many variables that it's very hard to really get

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<v Speaker 1>hard data, you know on this. I think certainly for

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<v Speaker 1>kids in school, we we do think maybe that's had

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<v Speaker 1>a negative impact on socialization and other areas. I think

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<v Speaker 1>if you're overall healthy and there's no mask mandate, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're insecure, certainly where it. If you're someone at risk,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're immuno compromised, if you're elderly, I would take

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<v Speaker 1>every measure possible to reduce risk, which would include wearing

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<v Speaker 1>a mask, even though we know they're not all right. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>take care. Always nice to check in with you and

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<v Speaker 1>stay well. Dr Ia las Beta, Clinical Professor of Medicine

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<v Speaker 1>at n y U Lango Medical Center. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So among the most read on

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Today. It is a Bloomberg exclusive exclusive. It's

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<v Speaker 1>about how Wall Street had a briefing from the Body

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<v Speaker 1>Administration on possible sanctions against Russia. Tim Yeah. The story

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<v Speaker 1>written by Jenny Stain, Catherine Dougherty, and Hannah Levitt. Hannah

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<v Speaker 1>joins us now. She's Finance reporter at Bloomberg News. She's

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City, Hannah, you and

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<v Speaker 1>our colleagues right that city Bank of America JP Morgan.

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<v Speaker 1>They're among the firms that are involved in discussions the

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<v Speaker 1>US and allies are hoping to prevent a Russian invasion

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine. What did you learn and and and really

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<v Speaker 1>take us into it. Hey, you guys, thank you for

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<v Speaker 1>having me today. Happy Friday. Um. So what we're what

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<v Speaker 1>we heard and what we reported is that, um, the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden administration held discussions were really consulting uh, these big

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<v Speaker 1>banks to make sure that you know, any any sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't um disrupt the global financial system. And so what

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking at here is Russia is really integrated into

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<v Speaker 1>the global financial system. UM. So it's less you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how will study group be impacted or how will there

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<v Speaker 1>be more going to be impacted or something like that,

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<v Speaker 1>and really more so, uh making sure that the government

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<v Speaker 1>understands the full range of consequences for you know, any

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<v Speaker 1>actions or set of actions that they may take. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's interesting too because I think you think about

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<v Speaker 1>the global banks and I do wonder about the relationship

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<v Speaker 1>they have with maybe some of the different markets. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>what is kind of the ties between Russia and the

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<v Speaker 1>US Banking Committee industry. Yeah, that's a great question. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>so like, of the three biggest US banks, City Group

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<v Speaker 1>is the only one that even breaks out it's exposure

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<v Speaker 1>um to Russia. And you know, those those assets are

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<v Speaker 1>really just I think it was point three percent of

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<v Speaker 1>its total assets. So it's not you know, you're not

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<v Speaker 1>talking some kind of like outsized exposure on behalf of

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<v Speaker 1>the US banks here, um. But that's not really the issue.

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<v Speaker 1>It's more, you know, the the interconnectiveness of of the

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<v Speaker 1>financial system as a whole, and when you're looking at

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<v Speaker 1>things like you know, the Swift payment system, which is

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<v Speaker 1>considered the nuclear option here, but if you cut off

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<v Speaker 1>Russia from something like that, it's how does that impact,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the way business gets done in the way

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<v Speaker 1>that thinks facilitate that globally. That's a really good point,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when we you know, you think about how all

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<v Speaker 1>the conversations we've had about the global supply chain, and

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<v Speaker 1>there's a global financial supply chain in terms of how

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<v Speaker 1>things work around the world. The other thing I think

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<v Speaker 1>about is I wonder how the banks are thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>Europe's relationship with Russia, whether it's an economic impact of

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<v Speaker 1>things to to break down. You know that is Europe

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<v Speaker 1>obviously more directly impacted in the United States in that form. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>well definitely. And you know all of these big banks

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<v Speaker 1>have global exposure, and when you're looking at I mean

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<v Speaker 1>I think I was just reading that. I think when uh,

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<v Speaker 1>when Western nations threatened Russia's access to swift back in,

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<v Speaker 1>one of their finance ministers said it could produce Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>GDP by like five percent in a year. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when when you think about these consequences, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>not just in Russia, but then still over effects to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, those countries that are closer geographically like you

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<v Speaker 1>just mentioned. Um, then you're looking at that question of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, global growth and how that impacts the banks.

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<v Speaker 1>And also you know when you think about your talking

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<v Speaker 1>about volatility of the markets, which this week has been

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<v Speaker 1>you know, crazy as it is, but then you think about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if if there's all this uncertainty around that,

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<v Speaker 1>will people be on the sidelines and all of those occasions. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's the traditional big banks, right, and then there's

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<v Speaker 1>also like a master card. I know you guys cite

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<v Speaker 1>the CEO in your story. I mean they talk about

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<v Speaker 1>it being a substantial and strategically important market for them.

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<v Speaker 1>Mm hmm, yeah. I mean that that really goes back

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<v Speaker 1>to the whole the payments thing, in the payment system

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<v Speaker 1>of the whole. So what do what do banks and

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<v Speaker 1>financial institutions do now now that they've been briefed? How

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<v Speaker 1>do they how do they prepare for such a situation.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know that it's it's a back and forth.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not um. You know, I think that the the

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<v Speaker 1>administration my senses, wants to learn from the banks as

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<v Speaker 1>well and the people whose job it is at the

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<v Speaker 1>banks to understand the potential outcomes. So you know, there's

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<v Speaker 1>there's some back and forth there. But you know, at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, banks have had to deal

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<v Speaker 1>with sanctions before UM and that's really the point of

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<v Speaker 1>these conversations is for them too, you know, be able

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<v Speaker 1>to determine they had forward as well as the administration.

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<v Speaker 1>And real quickly just got about twenty five seconds. Who's

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<v Speaker 1>more worried the bide administration about spillover or banks more

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<v Speaker 1>worried about spillover. That's a good question, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>do that that's a great question to be continued. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>great reporting and it's a Bloomberg exclusive and it is

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<v Speaker 1>among the most read on the Bloomberg and what's been

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<v Speaker 1>a crazy cra cray week kind of love it. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>so much, Finance Report ut Bloomberg News on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in New York City. You know what I love about

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<v Speaker 1>what she said to is just it's a reminder when

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<v Speaker 1>we have spoken so much about the connect connectivity between

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<v Speaker 1>supply chains, but the financial supply chain is so connected. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not something that you can really visualize, but

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<v Speaker 1>it absolutely is. I mean, think about the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>all these companies and their earnings are talking about cross

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<v Speaker 1>border transactions and we take it for granted, right that

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<v Speaker 1>this stuff just works so seamlessly, and that's not always

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<v Speaker 1>the case. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:37.079
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:39.840
<v Speaker 1>In the new issue Bloomberg Business Week gets out and

0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:42.439
<v Speaker 1>in it you'll find a story about one crypto company,

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<v Speaker 1>it's founder and why regulators are keeping an eye on it.

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<v Speaker 1>The story by Zeke Fox, financial investigations reporter at Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us now to talk about his story. It's

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.679
<v Speaker 1>about Celsius also joining us as Joel Webber, editor at

0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:56.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us on the access line

0:11:57.080 --> 0:12:00.680
<v Speaker 1>from Brooklyn. Celsius is eighteen percent yields on crypto. They're

0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:05.400
<v Speaker 1>tempting and they're drawing scrutiny, Joelso, is is Celsius a bank?

0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:09.239
<v Speaker 1>It takes your crypto? It's not regulated as a bank.

0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>What is Celsius sounds great? And yields um definitely catch attention.

0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:20.320
<v Speaker 1>And for for a long time it's been people who

0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.960
<v Speaker 1>are willing to lend crypto to Celsius and get those

0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 1>returns um and increasingly it's making uh some regulators take

0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 1>notice too. Uh, Zeke, how do you get a team

0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:39.240
<v Speaker 1>percent yields? So the pitch is really compelling. It's the

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:43.720
<v Speaker 1>celsius Is founder Alex Muschinsky. He says, Listen, it's not

0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.480
<v Speaker 1>hard to get a team percent yields. It's actually the

0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.120
<v Speaker 1>big banks are robbing you. They take your deposits, they

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>go out and invest them. They make lots of money

0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:57.000
<v Speaker 1>and they but they don't give you the profits. Meanwhile,

0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:01.040
<v Speaker 1>if you send your crypto to celsie Is, it'll go

0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:05.080
<v Speaker 1>out and invest it and it'll pay you five percent

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:11.559
<v Speaker 1>eight percent even depending on which crypto you send them.

0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Well okay, so so what do they then do with

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:19.640
<v Speaker 1>your crypto? Yeah, I mean that is the question. Celsius

0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>says that they have these profitable ways of using the crypto,

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:27.680
<v Speaker 1>the main one being that they can take the coins

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.880
<v Speaker 1>that you sent to Celsius and lend them to big

0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 1>traders like hedge funds, who will use them to make

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:40.560
<v Speaker 1>really profitable bets. And these traders they have trouble borrowing

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 1>money elsewhere, so they're willing to pay a lot to

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:47.640
<v Speaker 1>celsie it and Celsius can keep like a little sliver

0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.320
<v Speaker 1>for itself and pay out the rest to the depositors.

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 1>So it sounds like so it sounds like a win

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:58.880
<v Speaker 1>win pretty much. I mean, the when I heard the

0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 1>pitch the it, I mean, that was my question, Like

0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.800
<v Speaker 1>what's the catch? Because in general, if someone is paying

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.840
<v Speaker 1>you a high interest rate, it's because you know they're

0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:10.559
<v Speaker 1>taking some sort of risk with your with your money.

0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 1>And that's what I set out to investigate, because while

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>Celsius says it's really transparent, it doesn't give out any

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:21.360
<v Speaker 1>sort of financial statement that shows exactly what it's doing

0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.520
<v Speaker 1>with all the money that it's collecting, and it's not

0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.120
<v Speaker 1>regulated like a bank. Even though the basic proposition is

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 1>pretty similar to a bank, it's not really regulated at all.

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:37.479
<v Speaker 1>Um But in recent months a bunch of state securities

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:42.000
<v Speaker 1>regulators have started looking into Celsius, and so has the

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 1>Securities and Exchange Commission, which is saying that maybe by

0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 1>doing what it does, it's breaking the law and offering

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:56.120
<v Speaker 1>people what are essentially investment products that the SEC should

0:14:56.160 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 1>be overseeing. So if if that were to happen, if

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 1>the SEC then does have to oversee these products, does

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.320
<v Speaker 1>that somehow ruin Celsius's business model or could they change

0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 1>their business models so they adhere to regulatory Uh well,

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>I guess it here to regulations. You know, it's a

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:18.680
<v Speaker 1>good question. I mean, they've been growing so fast. They

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 1>got up to billion in assets last year, more than quadrupled.

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't see why it couldn't go on with regulation.

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>But the regulators would want to know exactly what they're

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:34.080
<v Speaker 1>doing with all the money, and they might have to

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.280
<v Speaker 1>disclose it to users. Um So, I spoke with a

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:43.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of former employees of Celsius, and what I found

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:47.800
<v Speaker 1>was that the company is definitely taking some risks with

0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 1>this with this money. So if there was more transparency,

0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 1>it's unclear how the users would react. So so as

0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.680
<v Speaker 1>he talked to us more about Mashinsky because he's got

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:04.960
<v Speaker 1>u sort of an online you know, you mentioned those assets.

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>How many people are watching him and tuning into his

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:13.960
<v Speaker 1>programming where he where he's you know, basically pitches his services. Yeah,

0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:15.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean he's the founder and he's like the number

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.840
<v Speaker 1>one pitchman for the company. He's at every cryptoconference, he

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 1>live streams every week. And I mean, just one example

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 1>of something he said is the beauty of Celsius. Of

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.600
<v Speaker 1>what Celsius managed to do is that we deliver yield.

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 1>We pay it to the people who would never be

0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 1>able to do it themselves. We take it from the rich,

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.040
<v Speaker 1>and we beat the index. That's like going to the

0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.480
<v Speaker 1>Olympics and getting fifteen medals in fifteen different fields. After

0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 1>he said it, he dabbed and brushed off his shoulders. Um,

0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:46.760
<v Speaker 1>and he's, uh, he talks like this. It sounds like

0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.240
<v Speaker 1>he he makes Celsius sound like kind of like a

0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 1>multi level marketing type business opportunity more than like a

0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:58.600
<v Speaker 1>bank account. But he has all these fans like Celsius users.

0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.200
<v Speaker 1>He calls them selsie ms. He says, there's more than

0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.800
<v Speaker 1>a million of them. These users will right in and

0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>be like I put my life savings in Celsius, like

0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 1>I quit my job. I'm making so much money off Celsia. UM.

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>And it seems like Maschinsky really feeds off this energy.

0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.879
<v Speaker 1>And he's, uh, he's fifty six, which is old by

0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:23.200
<v Speaker 1>crypto standards, and he's he likes to say that he

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 1>calls Celsius money over i P, as if it was like, uh,

0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 1>the revolutionary technology voiceover i P that, like you said,

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.640
<v Speaker 1>phone calls over the Internet. And he likes to say

0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:38.280
<v Speaker 1>that he invented voiceover i P, which would make him

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:43.960
<v Speaker 1>like a really important inventor in the history of the internet. Um. However,

0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:46.639
<v Speaker 1>I looked into this. I talked with a bunch of

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:50.280
<v Speaker 1>people who worked on voiceover i P and they say

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 1>Maschinsky did not invent it. That he he did have

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.920
<v Speaker 1>an early voiceover i P company, but he didn't invent

0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:01.720
<v Speaker 1>the technology. Um as. And it makes you wonder write

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:03.840
<v Speaker 1>with someone else to kind of put that out there. Hey,

0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:08.560
<v Speaker 1>you did talk to, um those that were formally employed

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.119
<v Speaker 1>at that company. I mean, I guess it's a great

0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.400
<v Speaker 1>profile and a deep dive into maybe a company people

0:18:13.400 --> 0:18:17.119
<v Speaker 1>don't know about. What was your takeaway after your reporting

0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 1>and writing about this? To me, I think that, as

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:28.160
<v Speaker 1>a do professor told my co writer Joel Light, there's

0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:30.920
<v Speaker 1>no free lunch. If if Celsius is paying you a

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:33.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of money, they have to be taking some risk

0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:38.160
<v Speaker 1>with it to earn those returns. And maybe you trust

0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Celsius to take your crypto and invest it, but maybe

0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.720
<v Speaker 1>you want some more information about exactly what they're doing

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:48.919
<v Speaker 1>with with the money before you decide whether they're to

0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.119
<v Speaker 1>invest with them. I mean, I found that they had

0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:54.119
<v Speaker 1>given at least hundreds of millions of dollars to a

0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:57.680
<v Speaker 1>guy to invest in Defy, So they were like taking

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.440
<v Speaker 1>the user's deposits and sticking them on these de five platforms.

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 1>And the top money manager for DeFi left in a

0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:10.480
<v Speaker 1>dispute that wasn't disclosed, and they lost a bunch of

0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:15.199
<v Speaker 1>money in a hack. Right, So it seems like you know,

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:20.159
<v Speaker 1>you're definitely there's some risk involved. Just let the depositor

0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:23.560
<v Speaker 1>or I guess not depositor be aware as wide open. Hey,

0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:25.840
<v Speaker 1>we gotta run Seek, Thank you so much. Seek Fox.

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:29.000
<v Speaker 1>He's financial investigations reporter at Bloomberg News. Check out his story.

0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.639
<v Speaker 1>It's in the finance section of the new issue of

0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:35.159
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week magazine, on newsstands, on the Bloomberg and

0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:38.200
<v Speaker 1>online at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Joe Weber,

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:40.720
<v Speaker 1>have a great weekend, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. Catch Joeb,

0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:43.440
<v Speaker 1>Me and Tim. We're on the weekend show up Bloomberg

0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Business Week and catch out on Bloomberg Radio at eight

0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:51.480
<v Speaker 1>am come Saturday. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg

0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:55.200
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.200
<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We just talked about Goldman saying

0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 1>that investors should be skeptical of the narrative that rising

0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:04.679
<v Speaker 1>adoption of cryptocurrencies must translate into higher prices to we

0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:06.840
<v Speaker 1>have that going on, and it's kind of good to

0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 1>keep that in mind when we heard what was it

0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:12.119
<v Speaker 1>about a week ago the Fed taking a key step

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 1>in weighing the creation of its own digital currency UH,

0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:17.920
<v Speaker 1>a move that the FETE said could help ensure the

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:20.520
<v Speaker 1>U S dollars dominance as the central Bank rapples really

0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:24.399
<v Speaker 1>with the fast growing fast growing private crypto markets and

0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:26.639
<v Speaker 1>coins issued by other nations. Right, there's this whole thing

0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:29.359
<v Speaker 1>going on globally. Yeah, let's talk about it with Dorothy G.

0:20:29.520 --> 0:20:32.200
<v Speaker 1>O b. She's of council at Jones Day. She joins

0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:33.840
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New York City. Dorothy, how

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.960
<v Speaker 1>are you hi, Carol? Tim, thanks very much for having

0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 1>me on. Great to have you, Yeah, really great to

0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:40.840
<v Speaker 1>have you here. Let's talk about the FED considering a

0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:44.080
<v Speaker 1>central bank digital currency. UM, what are some I want

0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:46.040
<v Speaker 1>to start with the pros here, because this is something

0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:47.880
<v Speaker 1>that you look at closely. You have a good understanding

0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.440
<v Speaker 1>of this. Why would the central bank want to do this? Yeah, Tim,

0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:54.159
<v Speaker 1>it's a great question. And UM, so as you as

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:56.440
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, the FED has come out with this report,

0:20:56.960 --> 0:20:59.920
<v Speaker 1>uh last week, and it's going to be examining specific

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:03.040
<v Speaker 1>use cases and UM, you know, both the benefits and

0:21:03.080 --> 0:21:07.399
<v Speaker 1>the challenges of issuing a central bank digital currency. I

0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:10.199
<v Speaker 1>think that, um, the pros or the potential pros of

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:15.040
<v Speaker 1>CBDC central bank digital currency really depend on, uh, the

0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:18.520
<v Speaker 1>particular use case, UM, the way in which the CBDC

0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:22.879
<v Speaker 1>could be used in a given set of circumstances. So, UM,

0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:26.919
<v Speaker 1>some potential benefits could be uh the the greater efficiency

0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:31.960
<v Speaker 1>and in payment systems, more efficiencies and cross border payments, UM,

0:21:32.359 --> 0:21:36.160
<v Speaker 1>better tools to fight financial crime UM, and and also

0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:41.280
<v Speaker 1>the potential again for greater financial inclusion. Those are some

0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of the benefits or the potential pros of a CBDC.

0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:47.240
<v Speaker 1>I think, UM, you know what the FED is doing

0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 1>now is um examining these potential use cases and trying

0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:54.560
<v Speaker 1>to think through whether a CBDC is the right tool

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 1>um to realize some of those uh some of those issues.

0:21:58.040 --> 0:22:01.359
<v Speaker 1>So what would a cbd C do you to the

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:06.360
<v Speaker 1>average Joe and Jane on main street? Well, UM, again

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:08.879
<v Speaker 1>you know there there are a couple of different models

0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:12.320
<v Speaker 1>of a CBDC. So one is could be institutional only

0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 1>and so that would be for use um between you know,

0:22:15.680 --> 0:22:20.320
<v Speaker 1>payments between financial institutions. So um, not much impact to

0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:24.119
<v Speaker 1>the average consumer on the street there UM any efficiencies

0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:27.360
<v Speaker 1>there would be realized really between the institutions. Now, if

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:31.160
<v Speaker 1>there were a retail CBDC or one um uh in

0:22:31.200 --> 0:22:35.160
<v Speaker 1>which the public could participate, UM, you know that could

0:22:35.200 --> 0:22:38.840
<v Speaker 1>that could again have the potential for greater financial inclusions.

0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:43.919
<v Speaker 1>So for example, UM, people might be less uh likely

0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:47.280
<v Speaker 1>UM to go and cash their check with UM, you know,

0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:50.879
<v Speaker 1>and pay high fees uh um uh for paid a

0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:54.880
<v Speaker 1>lenders or other you know payment services UM. And the

0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:59.399
<v Speaker 1>potential for those kinds of um of benefits to the

0:22:59.400 --> 0:23:03.680
<v Speaker 1>consumer uh population, I think is one of the things

0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:07.720
<v Speaker 1>that the FED is looking at in thinking about CBDCs.

0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 1>I will say it's a very important time because as

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:13.600
<v Speaker 1>the FED has put out this report, they have put

0:23:13.640 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 1>out a call for input from the public, from UM,

0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:22.800
<v Speaker 1>elected officials, from other stakeholders UM. And so to the

0:23:22.840 --> 0:23:26.720
<v Speaker 1>extent that people have a view or an interest or

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:30.040
<v Speaker 1>a you know, a voice in this discussion, now is

0:23:30.080 --> 0:23:33.000
<v Speaker 1>the time to get involved. Now is the time to

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:36.080
<v Speaker 1>make your views known to the Federal Reserve. They've opened

0:23:36.119 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 1>this period for comment uh and so people with an

0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:43.000
<v Speaker 1>interest here should take advantage of that the comments or UM.

0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:44.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, the FED is going to be asking for

0:23:44.600 --> 0:23:47.600
<v Speaker 1>comments by may. Hey, Dorothy, I'm wondering because you you know,

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:49.840
<v Speaker 1>spend so much time in this space. Well, what do

0:23:49.840 --> 0:23:52.439
<v Speaker 1>you think the right move is from the FED? If

0:23:52.440 --> 0:23:55.280
<v Speaker 1>you were advising the fat Yeah, I think the Fed

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:59.080
<v Speaker 1>is doing exactly what it should do. It is um

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:01.560
<v Speaker 1>taking its time, you know, the FED is is certainly

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>not the first in this process. There are other countries

0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 1>and other central banks around the world who have been

0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:09.960
<v Speaker 1>looking at this, uh, the issue of central bank digital currency,

0:24:10.119 --> 0:24:13.320
<v Speaker 1>and are further along the road, uh, you know, than

0:24:13.400 --> 0:24:16.400
<v Speaker 1>than the US is. But I think the FED is

0:24:16.520 --> 0:24:22.920
<v Speaker 1>acting appropriately. They are being very deliberative, They're being very careful, um,

0:24:23.119 --> 0:24:26.760
<v Speaker 1>and trying to gain a broad consensus. Um. And you know,

0:24:26.920 --> 0:24:28.680
<v Speaker 1>the intent is not for the FED to sort of

0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:31.600
<v Speaker 1>act unilaterally here. And in fact, they've said that they

0:24:31.640 --> 0:24:35.640
<v Speaker 1>will not move forward without broad consensus and broad by

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 1>in from the public, elected officials and other stakeholders. And

0:24:39.680 --> 0:24:42.160
<v Speaker 1>so that's the right move I think. Um, you know,

0:24:42.359 --> 0:24:44.719
<v Speaker 1>they they as others have said, and I agree with,

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 1>they don't have to be the first, but they just

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.080
<v Speaker 1>don't want to be the last. Well. And that's the point, right,

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:54.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's no kind of ignoring or looking back.

0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:56.280
<v Speaker 1>You have to look forward at this point because other

0:24:56.560 --> 0:24:59.439
<v Speaker 1>nations are moving forward, and I think about something like China, right,

0:24:59.520 --> 0:25:02.879
<v Speaker 1>the US has to keep up. Well, that's right. China

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:07.480
<v Speaker 1>is a very interesting example. Um. They are well down

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:10.919
<v Speaker 1>the road to the digital lawn. Um. And you know,

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:14.400
<v Speaker 1>have a pilot and um uh and have been made

0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:18.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot of progress there. Another interesting example is Sweden.

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 1>UM and Sweden is interesting because the you know, the

0:25:21.160 --> 0:25:26.320
<v Speaker 1>percentage of transactions that actually use cash physical cash UM

0:25:26.440 --> 0:25:28.520
<v Speaker 1>is much lower than it has been in the past.

0:25:28.560 --> 0:25:31.480
<v Speaker 1>That's not UM. You know, there are the same parallels

0:25:31.520 --> 0:25:34.200
<v Speaker 1>with the decline and the use of cash. It doesn't

0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:37.720
<v Speaker 1>translate exactly here to the US. So different countries have

0:25:37.840 --> 0:25:41.280
<v Speaker 1>different motivations for looking at this, looking at the issue

0:25:41.320 --> 0:25:44.680
<v Speaker 1>of CBDCs and and what the potential benefits might be.

0:25:44.760 --> 0:25:47.479
<v Speaker 1>But but I do think the FED is UM is

0:25:47.520 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 1>taking the right course here in in being very deliberative

0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 1>UM and UM and really looking at all of the

0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:58.719
<v Speaker 1>issues for what could be a very significant impact and

0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:02.880
<v Speaker 1>change to our financial system and our financial infrastructure. All right, well,

0:26:03.119 --> 0:26:06.119
<v Speaker 1>great to get your inputting added to the narrative that

0:26:06.160 --> 0:26:08.840
<v Speaker 1>we've been having in the conversation. UM, Dorothy, thank you

0:26:08.920 --> 0:26:11.920
<v Speaker 1>so much. Dorothy go Ob, she's of counsel at Jones

0:26:12.000 --> 0:26:14.280
<v Speaker 1>Day on the phone in New York City. Interesting, really

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:16.199
<v Speaker 1>interesting stuff. Don't want to be the first, don't need

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:17.680
<v Speaker 1>to be the first, but don't want to be the last,

0:26:17.840 --> 0:26:20.280
<v Speaker 1>right exactly, all right, you're listening to Bloomberg Business. We

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:26.000
<v Speaker 1>kids Friday and this is Bloomberg. Yeah, but you let

0:26:26.000 --> 0:26:32.720
<v Speaker 1>me drive? No, no, no, who's right? Please, I'll do gravels.

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:41.439
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive. It's good question drive. This is

0:26:41.480 --> 0:26:48.400
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the Clobell on Bloomberg Radio. Just got

0:26:48.400 --> 0:26:51.200
<v Speaker 1>about ten minutes left in today's trading session, getting ready

0:26:51.240 --> 0:26:53.199
<v Speaker 1>to wrap up the trading day. We are seeing buying

0:26:53.320 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 1>into the clothes. We are at our best levels of

0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:59.120
<v Speaker 1>the session, more than two percent gain on the SMPS

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:02.440
<v Speaker 1>Charlie mentioned two seven percent higher on the NASDAC. Thank

0:27:02.480 --> 0:27:05.119
<v Speaker 1>you Apple, but also a lot of other names. And

0:27:05.160 --> 0:27:06.880
<v Speaker 1>the dad right now up about one and a half

0:27:06.880 --> 0:27:10.359
<v Speaker 1>percent him. So we're definitely seeing um bullishness into the

0:27:10.400 --> 0:27:12.399
<v Speaker 1>closing bell. He certainly think you Apple, and you're right

0:27:12.440 --> 0:27:14.199
<v Speaker 1>to say a lot of other names because of the

0:27:14.320 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 1>more than five stocks, because there are more than six

0:27:18.680 --> 0:27:20.680
<v Speaker 1>or high or only seventy seven lower right now. Quite

0:27:20.720 --> 0:27:22.400
<v Speaker 1>a change from what we saw earlier in the day.

0:27:22.480 --> 0:27:25.480
<v Speaker 1>That's an interesting tone, uh and sentiment going into the weekend.

0:27:25.560 --> 0:27:28.399
<v Speaker 1>So let's see what our next guest has to say.

0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:31.280
<v Speaker 1>Dave Donna Beatie, and he's chief investment Officer of CIBC

0:27:31.440 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Private Wealth Management. They've got about ninety six billion in

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:36.960
<v Speaker 1>assets under management. He joins us once again on the

0:27:37.000 --> 0:27:40.639
<v Speaker 1>phone from Baltimore. So, David, has been quite a week

0:27:40.880 --> 0:27:43.440
<v Speaker 1>in a year where we have kind of had quite

0:27:43.480 --> 0:27:47.480
<v Speaker 1>a week after week after week. To see potentially a

0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:51.119
<v Speaker 1>positive close on this Friday, in a week where we

0:27:51.160 --> 0:27:53.159
<v Speaker 1>had the FED meeting and a lot of volatility in

0:27:53.160 --> 0:27:55.919
<v Speaker 1>the markets and also some big earnings. How do you

0:27:55.960 --> 0:27:59.560
<v Speaker 1>read it? Well, I think it's it's certainly good to

0:27:59.560 --> 0:28:02.040
<v Speaker 1>see up a strong bid to close the week here

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:04.560
<v Speaker 1>as the the SMP kind of struggles to a draw

0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:07.600
<v Speaker 1>for the week. Uh yeah, I think certainly the uh

0:28:07.640 --> 0:28:10.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, Apple earnings reports, sort of the bellwall, whether

0:28:10.480 --> 0:28:13.679
<v Speaker 1>of bell Weather is reporting so strong helps and uh

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:16.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, perhaps some some short covernment going on. So

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:20.680
<v Speaker 1>but but still a tough start to the year. Okay. So,

0:28:20.680 --> 0:28:23.200
<v Speaker 1>so you're not saying necessarily that it's a bullish sign

0:28:23.240 --> 0:28:27.520
<v Speaker 1>that the sentiment is changing, No, I don't think yet.

0:28:27.600 --> 0:28:30.640
<v Speaker 1>I think we're at a back and forth market here.

0:28:30.680 --> 0:28:34.360
<v Speaker 1>We've had a uh you know, a pretty meaningful pullback,

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:37.400
<v Speaker 1>which you know, I think makes some sense if if

0:28:37.440 --> 0:28:40.680
<v Speaker 1>you look at the drivers of the great bull market

0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:44.320
<v Speaker 1>rather than we had in one when the market more

0:28:44.360 --> 0:28:48.240
<v Speaker 1>than doubled. We had these, you know, three incredibly strong

0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:52.920
<v Speaker 1>tail winds monetary policy, fiscal policy, and a huge earnings recovery.

0:28:53.520 --> 0:28:55.680
<v Speaker 1>And you know those tail winds are evaporating right that

0:28:55.800 --> 0:28:58.320
<v Speaker 1>the FETE is marching toward rate hikes. There's not gonna

0:28:58.360 --> 0:29:01.280
<v Speaker 1>be any more fiscal relief pack of just coming. And

0:29:01.840 --> 0:29:03.960
<v Speaker 1>earnings are coming in fine here on the fourth quote

0:29:03.960 --> 0:29:05.680
<v Speaker 1>of reports, but we know they've been slow this year.

0:29:05.720 --> 0:29:08.320
<v Speaker 1>So those tail ones just on the strong, and we

0:29:08.440 --> 0:29:11.400
<v Speaker 1>started from a level of fairly high evaluation, so a

0:29:11.400 --> 0:29:14.400
<v Speaker 1>bit of a pullback is not terribly surprising. You sell

0:29:14.440 --> 0:29:16.440
<v Speaker 1>like somebody who's seen a fair amount of market cycles,

0:29:16.720 --> 0:29:19.880
<v Speaker 1>and understand, the market goes up in the moody and right,

0:29:20.280 --> 0:29:22.400
<v Speaker 1>and the market goes down. And we all love to

0:29:22.400 --> 0:29:24.160
<v Speaker 1>who have seen a fair amount of market cycles like

0:29:24.200 --> 0:29:27.600
<v Speaker 1>to make comparisons to other moments of either volatility or

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:32.440
<v Speaker 1>instability or big selling or big buying. Um, how, I

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:35.240
<v Speaker 1>don't know, how do you kind of put this market

0:29:35.240 --> 0:29:37.920
<v Speaker 1>cycle in perspective to some of the other past market

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:41.360
<v Speaker 1>cycles that we've seen. Are we still in this market cycle?

0:29:41.440 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 1>I know we've had technically corrections. But how do you

0:29:43.880 --> 0:29:46.719
<v Speaker 1>see it? I think I think what you look for

0:29:46.800 --> 0:29:50.920
<v Speaker 1>in terms of cycle comparisons is because it's very relevant

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:54.480
<v Speaker 1>to where we're headed. How do markets behave when the

0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:58.240
<v Speaker 1>FED pivots from very easy to less easy? Right when

0:29:58.240 --> 0:30:00.720
<v Speaker 1>when I go from a period of very low interest

0:30:00.800 --> 0:30:03.400
<v Speaker 1>rates to saying we actually need to start to tighten.

0:30:03.560 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>And um, we learned a couple of things from from history. First,

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:10.680
<v Speaker 1>markets are more volatile in general, both stock and bond markets,

0:30:10.680 --> 0:30:14.440
<v Speaker 1>and we certainly are seeing that already. Um. You know,

0:30:14.480 --> 0:30:17.120
<v Speaker 1>the record for the equity market, though, is that it

0:30:17.240 --> 0:30:22.280
<v Speaker 1>does reasonably well during the early phase of FED rap tightening.

0:30:22.360 --> 0:30:25.160
<v Speaker 1>You heard the old adage it's not the first FED

0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:27.760
<v Speaker 1>hike to worry about it, it's the last one. A

0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:30.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of truths to that, and the numbers bear it out.

0:30:30.240 --> 0:30:33.520
<v Speaker 1>So the FED doing an interest rate hike or even

0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:36.840
<v Speaker 1>a few this year does not mean that we're headed

0:30:36.920 --> 0:30:38.760
<v Speaker 1>for a bear market in the short term. We actually

0:30:38.760 --> 0:30:42.200
<v Speaker 1>think the bull market U gets knocked around a lot

0:30:42.240 --> 0:30:45.200
<v Speaker 1>this year, but but but survives mainly because we're going

0:30:45.240 --> 0:30:49.240
<v Speaker 1>to continue to have economic growth and decennings growth. But um,

0:30:49.280 --> 0:30:51.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, corrections are just going to be a part

0:30:51.680 --> 0:30:53.600
<v Speaker 1>of the landscape, which they of course, who are not

0:30:53.880 --> 0:30:56.680
<v Speaker 1>last year Dave, How do we know when we hit

0:30:56.720 --> 0:30:59.600
<v Speaker 1>the bottom in one of these corrections, if the sell

0:30:59.640 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 1>off can and use after this week you be honestly,

0:31:04.680 --> 0:31:07.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the truth is, you never know when they

0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:09.600
<v Speaker 1>when the absolute bottom is. I think what you have

0:31:09.680 --> 0:31:13.320
<v Speaker 1>to do is, as a stock picker, um is, have

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:16.320
<v Speaker 1>you have your candidate lists companies you'd love to own

0:31:16.400 --> 0:31:19.120
<v Speaker 1>for the next the next three to five years, uh

0:31:19.320 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 1>and and the price at which it makes sense to

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:23.880
<v Speaker 1>own them. And you know, one of the things that

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:27.800
<v Speaker 1>happens when you get these market pullbacks is stocks you

0:31:27.800 --> 0:31:29.680
<v Speaker 1>didn't think you'd able to be able to buy at

0:31:29.680 --> 0:31:32.080
<v Speaker 1>the right price suddenly you can. So I think it

0:31:32.120 --> 0:31:36.160
<v Speaker 1>makes sense for investors to be to be opportunistic. M

0:31:37.080 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>And I guess I would say if if sentiment gets

0:31:39.800 --> 0:31:43.680
<v Speaker 1>too barish literally where people are starting to price in

0:31:43.880 --> 0:31:46.480
<v Speaker 1>a bear market, that isn't a buying opporgin because I

0:31:47.240 --> 0:31:50.320
<v Speaker 1>don't think that's how things are going to transpire. Yeah,

0:31:50.320 --> 0:31:52.840
<v Speaker 1>it does feel like to some extent market cycles, I

0:31:52.880 --> 0:31:55.040
<v Speaker 1>don't know, especially when they dip back, that we we

0:31:55.760 --> 0:31:58.280
<v Speaker 1>recover much more quickly. I don't know. Maybe I'm maybe

0:31:58.320 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm just reading wrongly into some thing. But how do

0:32:00.920 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>you see it if we do ultimately to a recession.

0:32:03.400 --> 0:32:06.240
<v Speaker 1>We're watching Germany right Europe watching it, uh, in terms

0:32:06.240 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 1>of kind of getting very close to that point. Um,

0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:12.680
<v Speaker 1>do you think it is something that is protracted or

0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:17.560
<v Speaker 1>who knows? One of the reasons why it seems like

0:32:18.400 --> 0:32:21.120
<v Speaker 1>we recover more quickly off of rough periods or bear

0:32:21.200 --> 0:32:24.680
<v Speaker 1>markets is that um. While the FED may not admit it,

0:32:24.760 --> 0:32:29.240
<v Speaker 1>they are more responsive to market conditions and market behavior um.

0:32:29.360 --> 0:32:32.400
<v Speaker 1>And and so we've tended to see the FED come

0:32:32.480 --> 0:32:36.280
<v Speaker 1>in more, more quickly and more dramatically to try and

0:32:36.440 --> 0:32:40.920
<v Speaker 1>provide liquidity to markets, and which begins the healing process.

0:32:40.960 --> 0:32:43.880
<v Speaker 1>And we're sort of headed towards the the other end

0:32:43.880 --> 0:32:46.640
<v Speaker 1>of the telescope there. Now the FED feels there's too

0:32:46.680 --> 0:32:49.920
<v Speaker 1>much liquidity in the system, and inflation numbers bear that out.

0:32:50.680 --> 0:32:53.840
<v Speaker 1>This year, you know, the way in which they withdraw

0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:57.440
<v Speaker 1>that liquidity UM is going to be key to the

0:32:57.480 --> 0:33:00.400
<v Speaker 1>market being able to continue to to put through. Like

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:03.480
<v Speaker 1>I said, it's going to lead to volatility. Inflation is

0:33:03.480 --> 0:33:07.800
<v Speaker 1>not going away, UM. But we're starting this FED tightening

0:33:07.840 --> 0:33:11.000
<v Speaker 1>cycle from deeply negative real interest rate. So there's a

0:33:11.000 --> 0:33:14.920
<v Speaker 1>way to go before policy is actually restrictive on credit.

0:33:14.960 --> 0:33:16.920
<v Speaker 1>And well when do you know when that is? And

0:33:16.920 --> 0:33:19.040
<v Speaker 1>again that's another timing question. But you know, you did

0:33:19.240 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 1>tell our producers that the first FED hike is not

0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:23.600
<v Speaker 1>a problem for equities. It's the last one that's that's

0:33:23.600 --> 0:33:26.120
<v Speaker 1>the trouble. So just in thirty seconds when what do

0:33:26.120 --> 0:33:30.000
<v Speaker 1>you mean by that? Well, just that at some point,

0:33:30.040 --> 0:33:33.800
<v Speaker 1>as the Fed continues to tighten um, they reach a

0:33:33.840 --> 0:33:38.200
<v Speaker 1>tipping point where they begin to uh, you know, lead

0:33:38.240 --> 0:33:41.040
<v Speaker 1>to money being costly, that the price of money goes

0:33:41.120 --> 0:33:44.320
<v Speaker 1>up UM and begins to restrict the flow of credit.

0:33:44.400 --> 0:33:46.600
<v Speaker 1>And that's you know, the old saying that the um

0:33:46.760 --> 0:33:49.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, bull markets aren't killed by time they're they're

0:33:49.920 --> 0:33:53.160
<v Speaker 1>murdered by the Fed. Um. Again, we're a long way

0:33:53.200 --> 0:33:56.440
<v Speaker 1>away from that, but we have to watch the pace

0:33:56.520 --> 0:33:59.000
<v Speaker 1>of FED activity. It's not an exact science. The FED

0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:00.760
<v Speaker 1>will tell you that as well. Their do it, and

0:34:00.800 --> 0:34:02.560
<v Speaker 1>it takes a while for to kick in and and

0:34:02.600 --> 0:34:06.120
<v Speaker 1>it's very easy to uh potentially overdo it. Hey, Dave,

0:34:06.160 --> 0:34:08.480
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Nice to get your thoughts Dave.

0:34:08.520 --> 0:34:11.200
<v Speaker 1>Donna Beady and he's chief investment officer at CIBC Private

0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:14.720
<v Speaker 1>Wealth Management on the phone from Baltimore. Thanks for listening

0:34:14.719 --> 0:34:18.200
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:34:18.280 --> 0:34:20.480
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:34:20.480 --> 0:34:23.040
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0:34:23.160 --> 0:34:25.879
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