WEBVTT - Our Vaccine Expectations Are Unrealistic

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty six since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's main story in the desire to return to our

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<v Speaker 1>normal lives. Many looked at the development of a COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen vaccine as a magic bullet. But a successful vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>may not be the panacea many are hoping for. But first,

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<v Speaker 1>here's what happened in Virus News today. Spain, the country

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<v Speaker 1>with the most cases in Europe, is closing nightclubs and

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<v Speaker 1>asking local authorities to enforce a law that bands drinking

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<v Speaker 1>in the streets. The country also prohibited smoking if people

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<v Speaker 1>can't maintain a distance of at least two meters that

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<v Speaker 1>it's meant to prevent clusters of smokers outside night spots

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<v Speaker 1>and restaurants. More than a third of Americans say they

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<v Speaker 1>won't get vaccinated when a COVID nineteen vaccine becomes available.

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<v Speaker 1>According to an NPR PBS News Our Merist poll of

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<v Speaker 1>around twelve hundred adults, about thirty five percent of people

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<v Speaker 1>won't line up for the shot when it's ready. The

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<v Speaker 1>resistance to the vaccine is split by party and education.

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<v Speaker 1>With Democrats and college educated people more likely to say

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<v Speaker 1>they will get inoculated. Vietnam may order up to one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty million doses of Russia's coronavirus vaccine, according

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<v Speaker 1>to a local newspaper citing the country's acting health minister.

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<v Speaker 1>Vietnam reported eighteen new infections on Friday, including seventeen locally

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<v Speaker 1>transmitted cases and one imported. According to the Health ministry,

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<v Speaker 1>Russia has rushed its vaccine plan despite international criticism, and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll start mass inoculation this month before clinical testing is completed.

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<v Speaker 1>On Thursday, the Philippines said it would join the final

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<v Speaker 1>phase of clinical trials for the vaccine starting October, and

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<v Speaker 1>President Rodrigo du Terte expects to be inoculated by May.

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<v Speaker 1>And now for today's main story. In the fight against

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen So many are pinning their hopes on a vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>but how long will it take. Russia's super fast tracked

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen one is technically the first in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>but the first vaccine may not be the best one,

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<v Speaker 1>and even with other vaccine trials underway around the globe,

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<v Speaker 1>it would be wrong to think we can resume normal

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<v Speaker 1>life as soon as we have one. I spoke to

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg healthcare reporter Michelle fake Cortez, who explains why Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>approach to vaccine development is so different and why the

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<v Speaker 1>world may be expecting way too much from an inoculation.

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<v Speaker 1>What is actually the realistic timetable of us having a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine from where we are right now, in the weeks

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<v Speaker 1>or months ahead when you think about it, the most

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<v Speaker 1>advanced trials are going to enroll thirty THOU people. Maderna

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the ones who's in the very forefront

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<v Speaker 1>of this effort right now. As of the first week

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<v Speaker 1>of August, they had enrolled about six percent of the

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<v Speaker 1>thirty THOU patients that they're planning on enrolling. That means

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<v Speaker 1>more than of those thirty patients still need to be

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<v Speaker 1>found entered into the clinical trial and get their first injection.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing to keep in mind is that everybody needs

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<v Speaker 1>two injections of most of these vaccines, and they have

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<v Speaker 1>to come a month apart. So if we spend the

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<v Speaker 1>month of August enrolling patients in this trial, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we spend the month of September giving everyone the second injection,

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<v Speaker 1>then perhaps we'll spend the month of October seeing whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not the vaccine is offering any protection, and the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that we're seeing some decreasing numbers of infections actually

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<v Speaker 1>works against us in this particular context, because in order

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<v Speaker 1>to show that a vaccine works, the people who have

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<v Speaker 1>been vaccinated have to naturally come into contact with the pathogen.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not doing challenge trials where people are being exposed

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<v Speaker 1>intentionally to coronavirus, so you have to encounter it in

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<v Speaker 1>your natural life. If you're being very careful, which hopefully

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<v Speaker 1>everyone is, you're wearing a mask, your social distancing chances

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<v Speaker 1>are you're not going to be exposed to it that much,

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<v Speaker 1>so they need to give you a little bit more

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<v Speaker 1>time in order to have that exposure. If we don't

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<v Speaker 1>get those numbers, then it's going to be hard to

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<v Speaker 1>show whether or not the vaccine works and how effective

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<v Speaker 1>it is in the context of people who have been exposed.

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<v Speaker 1>So that would be happening over the month of October.

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<v Speaker 1>Then we're looking at November for analyzing these data, and

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<v Speaker 1>so perhaps by late November early December we might be

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<v Speaker 1>seeing some of the results. But that's just for the

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<v Speaker 1>Maderna trial that has already started. The other trials aren't

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<v Speaker 1>even supposed to start until later in August or September

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<v Speaker 1>and even October. From the news that we've had out

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<v Speaker 1>of Russia that they have approved, you know, a vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>test and they actually think that they have a viable vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>are we aware of exactly what steps they have moved forward?

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<v Speaker 1>A little bit more quickly then than what we would

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<v Speaker 1>see in the States. Russia has actually been very open

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<v Speaker 1>about what they're doing, which is a little bit surpris

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<v Speaker 1>rising to me in the U. S. We've heard all

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<v Speaker 1>these announcements from the government that they're buying vaccine doses,

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<v Speaker 1>and not only are they buying them, they're actually manufacturing

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<v Speaker 1>them and their stockpiling them in warehouses, and they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to wait until the clinical trial results come in and

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<v Speaker 1>show whether they're beneficial or not, and if they work,

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<v Speaker 1>we will have this huge dose build up that we

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<v Speaker 1>can start rolling out to our citizens. In Russia, they're

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<v Speaker 1>taking the opposite approach these vaccines. As I said earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>thirty people are being enrolled in these trials in Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>They're saying, what are you more afraid of? Are you

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<v Speaker 1>more afraid of the coronavirus? Are you more afraid of

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine. If people are willing to roll the dice

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<v Speaker 1>on this, why don't we just let our entire citizenship

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<v Speaker 1>decide for themselves if they wanted or not. So they've

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<v Speaker 1>been very open that they haven't even started their phase

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<v Speaker 1>three clinical trials. They have results on a few hundred people,

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<v Speaker 1>just like the other trials that show that there have

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<v Speaker 1>been no devastating side effects, no anaphylactic show, no one

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<v Speaker 1>dying because they were using this coronavirus vaccine. And in

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<v Speaker 1>Russia they're just going to let people make that own decision.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a right to try situation. If you want to

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<v Speaker 1>get the vaccine, you can get it, and they have

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<v Speaker 1>approved it. And so now they're claiming to have generated

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<v Speaker 1>the first formally approved coronavirus vaccine. But the bottom line

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<v Speaker 1>is is that's not an effective vaccine. They have not

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<v Speaker 1>approved a vaccine that's proven to be effective. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be who's first. It's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>which one works the best, and we just don't know that.

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<v Speaker 1>In the US, we're going to be behind if the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines all work, because we're going to have waited for

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<v Speaker 1>the results. In Russia, they're going to be first, but

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<v Speaker 1>they might not ever know whether they're vaccines work or

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<v Speaker 1>not because the benefit that comes might not be entirely

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<v Speaker 1>and immediately apparent. It depends on how much exposure you

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<v Speaker 1>have to the virus. And if you're not tracking these

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<v Speaker 1>people and monitoring how many people do get infected and

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<v Speaker 1>how many don't, they'll never know how well and whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's working. So I'm just wondering along those lines, are

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<v Speaker 1>there other potential health risks to exposing a population to

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<v Speaker 1>this vaccine that hasn't had this extent of trials as

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in the US. In addition to side effects

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<v Speaker 1>like muscle pain, weakness, fever, that sort of thing, there

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<v Speaker 1>is a really very frightening complication that can come from vaccination,

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<v Speaker 1>which we've seen with other types of immunizations, including for

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<v Speaker 1>DANAE and other things. And what happens there is the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine primes your immune system. It tells the immune system

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<v Speaker 1>what to look for that another pathogen, a bad virus

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<v Speaker 1>could be coming after it, and it allows the immune

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<v Speaker 1>system to start to start bulking up to take on

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<v Speaker 1>that fight. But there are cases where priming the immune

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<v Speaker 1>system actually leads to a worse infection. In the end,

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<v Speaker 1>So those people who have been vaccinated and then see

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<v Speaker 1>the virus again naturally from the community actually have a

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<v Speaker 1>worse case. They're more likely to get sick, they get

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<v Speaker 1>more severely ill, and they have an increased risk of

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<v Speaker 1>dying because of the implication of the vaccine. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>thing that in the United States and in most of

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<v Speaker 1>the western world, that public health officials want to be

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<v Speaker 1>sure that they're not going to actually take people who

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<v Speaker 1>are completely healthy and who might not ever be exposed

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<v Speaker 1>to coronavirus and actually make those people worse. Looking ahead

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<v Speaker 1>for the United States, and let's say that a successful

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine candidate is determined by stay at the end, and

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<v Speaker 1>we start distributing that vaccine in early what does this

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<v Speaker 1>actually mean in terms of lockdowns, quarantines, our ability to

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<v Speaker 1>travel or go out to bars. What actually will the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine help us to regain in terms of wanting to

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<v Speaker 1>return to our normal lives. People really do have a

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<v Speaker 1>misperception of what this vaccine is going to mean. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's really to the detriment of all of

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<v Speaker 1>us and perhaps a shortcoming of the scientific media and

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<v Speaker 1>public health officials that we're not doing a better job

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<v Speaker 1>of communicating this to the public, and we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>have the same problem that we did when it came

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<v Speaker 1>to the summer and they need to reopen our economies.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody thought we're going to lock down for a few weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>for a few months, and then we're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>back to normal, and when that didn't happen, people were

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<v Speaker 1>flaw mixed, and it created so much stress intention in

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<v Speaker 1>the entire world, and we're setting ourselves up for another

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<v Speaker 1>situation exactly like that. A vaccine is not a panacea

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<v Speaker 1>in this case. It's not even going to be close

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<v Speaker 1>to a panacea or a magic bullet. People might think

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<v Speaker 1>of a vaccine a way that you think of it

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<v Speaker 1>as a as an immunization for measles. If you get

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated against the measles, you almost definitely are not going

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<v Speaker 1>to get measles. Chances are because everyone else is also

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinated and we have herd immunity. Measles doesn't spread very much,

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<v Speaker 1>so you would probably never even come into contact with it,

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<v Speaker 1>and if you did, that vaccine would protect you so

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to worry about it. That's not the

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<v Speaker 1>case with coronavirus. We have heard from Dr Fauci and

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<v Speaker 1>others that they're hoping that we're going to get to

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<v Speaker 1>be about sevent effective with the first coronavirus vaccines, and

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, if it only protects only half of the

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<v Speaker 1>people who get it, they're going to consider that effective.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what's going to be needed in order to get

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine approved. But what that means is that one

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<v Speaker 1>of every two people who are vaccinated might not get

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<v Speaker 1>any protection from the vaccine. So if you go out,

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<v Speaker 1>it might protect you or it might not, and you

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<v Speaker 1>will have no idea which camp you're going to fall into.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not like it's going to be a magic

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<v Speaker 1>bullet that once you're vaccinated you can go out into

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<v Speaker 1>the public. Again, the other thing to keep in mind

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<v Speaker 1>is going back to that issue of herd immunity. We

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<v Speaker 1>know that between sixty and of the population needs to

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<v Speaker 1>have some type of immunity against coronavirus in order to

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<v Speaker 1>stop it from spreading. The ways that we get immunity

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<v Speaker 1>are from people who have already had it and recovered

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<v Speaker 1>and from people who are vaccinated against it. But again,

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<v Speaker 1>if only of people get any kind of immunity, even

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<v Speaker 1>if you've vaccinated a hundred percent of the population. If

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<v Speaker 1>it's only effective, you're still not at herd immunity, and

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<v Speaker 1>then you're going to have to wait until the number

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<v Speaker 1>of people who have been infected catches up and get

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<v Speaker 1>you to that higher level. And that's also supposing that

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred percent of people get vaccinated, which we all know,

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<v Speaker 1>sadly in our current environment that that's not going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>That was Michelle Fake Cortez and that's it for our

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<v Speaker 1>show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com

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<v Speaker 1>slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave

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<v Speaker 1>us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the best way to help more listeners find our

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<v Speaker 1>global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by tophra

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<v Speaker 1>Forehaz Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's

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<v Speaker 1>main story was reported by Michelle Fake Cortes. Original music

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<v Speaker 1>by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine.

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<v Speaker 1>Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Thanks for listening.

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<v Speaker 1>Two