1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,600
Speaker 1: What two three breaks and.

2
00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:11,039
Speaker 2: In the middle of the feeling time, hello's football.

3
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:17,400
Speaker 1: Down in the one yard line? About that?

4
00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:20,040
Speaker 3: That is the ultimate kabash.

5
00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:28,200
Speaker 1: And we are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to another

6
00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,920
Speaker 1: episode of the Action Network NFL Podcast. I am Matthew Friedman,

7
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,559
Speaker 1: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs. We are just

8
00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,920
Speaker 1: over a week away from the twenty nineteen NFL Draft,

9
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 1: when lots of rookies will be added, some veterans will

10
00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,600
Speaker 1: be traded in the complexion of the NFL will change

11
00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:45,760
Speaker 1: just a little bit, just as it does each year.

12
00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,040
Speaker 1: So before all that happens, there's still some time to

13
00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,080
Speaker 1: get some action down on NFL season win totals in futures.

14
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,320
Speaker 1: In Joining me to talk about those and their favorite

15
00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:59,600
Speaker 1: bets are my long lost brothers in Football Debauchery s

16
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,520
Speaker 1: owner and Chris raybon Sean is the Action Network Director

17
00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,720
Speaker 1: of Predictive Analytics and one of the top end season

18
00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,600
Speaker 1: Fantasy pros rankers for the past half decade, and Chris

19
00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:09,920
Speaker 1: is a senior editor and analyst at the Action Network

20
00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,000
Speaker 1: and a co host of All Take That Bets on

21
00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 1: ESPN Plus. You can follow them in the Action Network

22
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,880
Speaker 1: app at the Underscore Odds Maker and Chris Raybon use

23
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:19,880
Speaker 1: the app to get real time odds and track your

24
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 1: bets for free. Sean, let's start with you. How are

25
00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,800
Speaker 1: you doing? What have you been doing? More importantly since

26
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:28,400
Speaker 1: you were last on the pod. It's like you went

27
00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:32,920
Speaker 1: into some self some sort of self imposed Luke Skywalker

28
00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,800
Speaker 1: pod exile, Like, is what's been up with you?

29
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,559
Speaker 3: Yeah? So I've been pretty much in Excel the entire time,

30
00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:46,319
Speaker 3: doing some stuff for us on March Madness, help set

31
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:52,320
Speaker 3: up our MLB models, doing some Masters modeling, so getting

32
00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,840
Speaker 3: as much non NFL stuff while I can, and you know,

33
00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 3: doing things like going to the gym, getting back into shape.

34
00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,360
Speaker 3: It's so funny, how like, you know, football players are

35
00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,520
Speaker 3: in shape during the football season and they kind of

36
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 3: let it go in the off season. Fans football experts

37
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,480
Speaker 3: are the exact opposite. So I'm trying to get rid

38
00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,760
Speaker 3: of some of those LB's that I put on during

39
00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,400
Speaker 3: the football season. So, you know, spending some time outside

40
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:19,360
Speaker 3: of or off my computer, I should say, so, just

41
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,400
Speaker 3: living it up, but looking forward to talking to football day.

42
00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:23,080
Speaker 3: It's been a while.

43
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:28,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. In shape always a relative term, by the way. Okay, Ravon,

44
00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,720
Speaker 1: how have you been You've been cranking out a lot

45
00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,359
Speaker 1: of basketball pieces each week. That's great. What I really

46
00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:35,200
Speaker 1: want to know is how many times since the Super

47
00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,639
Speaker 1: Bowl have you been back to the New York Office.

48
00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,239
Speaker 4: Actually I hit the over on that pretty quickly after

49
00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:42,760
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. I think I've been back like six

50
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,320
Speaker 4: seven times. My over under was four and a half.

51
00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,840
Speaker 4: So I'm feeling good, but just.

52
00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:48,640
Speaker 1: Just crushing the over.

53
00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: You big.

54
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,799
Speaker 4: I haven't been in a while though, so I kind

55
00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,200
Speaker 4: of crushed it and then, you know, just let it go.

56
00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:55,760
Speaker 4: But I've been I've been traveling with it. I was

57
00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:57,880
Speaker 4: actually in Boston and I saw like the most awesome

58
00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,680
Speaker 4: frozen pond and I thought of you guys, yeah hit

59
00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:02,760
Speaker 4: up Colorado.

60
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:03,840
Speaker 2: Got to see a Rockies game.

61
00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 4: So yeah, I've been kind of doing what Shawn's doing

62
00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,080
Speaker 4: a little though, you know, just kind of modeling some

63
00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,520
Speaker 4: other sports, especially especially the NBA.

64
00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 2: I'm really kind of knee deep into that.

65
00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,200
Speaker 4: And I think our app, with kind of the functionality

66
00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,280
Speaker 4: of getting that the props in there, the player props,

67
00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,440
Speaker 4: has really kind of got me addicted to to using

68
00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:19,760
Speaker 4: the app.

69
00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:21,720
Speaker 2: So I encourage you guys to check it out.

70
00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 4: And I can't wait for football when we start putting

71
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,000
Speaker 4: NFL props in there.

72
00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,520
Speaker 3: Did you see Alex Collins and Kenyon Drake in the

73
00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:29,840
Speaker 3: frozen pan bay chance for the.

74
00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:32,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think their bodies are just kind

75
00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 2: of fulling.

76
00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, the fulls very Game of Thrones. By the way,

77
00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 1: it would be the time of the HBO season to

78
00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,480
Speaker 1: have a body just stuck in a frozen pond and

79
00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,680
Speaker 1: these blue eyes just start looking at you. Okay, gentlemen,

80
00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:51,840
Speaker 1: it is wonderful to have you back on the show.

81
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,000
Speaker 1: Your return is so special, so momentous, that I didn't

82
00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,960
Speaker 1: want to diminish it by commercializing it at all. With

83
00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,240
Speaker 1: an ad read, I was like, listen, no, I will

84
00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,280
Speaker 1: not desecrate the sanctity of this reunion by talking about

85
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:08,920
Speaker 1: erectile dysfunction or hoodies or investing apps. So that's where

86
00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 1: we are. It is nice to have you back on

87
00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,400
Speaker 1: the show. Fellas. Let's jump into it. Let's start with

88
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:18,080
Speaker 1: a conversation about the season long win totals. They were

89
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 1: released a couple of weeks ago. I would like to

90
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,520
Speaker 1: get your sense of how you go about projecting win

91
00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:29,080
Speaker 1: totals and Sean, let's start with you. Where do you start, Like,

92
00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,880
Speaker 1: what information do you find relevant from previous seasons. Do

93
00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,159
Speaker 1: you tend to bet overs or unders? Just kind of

94
00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:36,720
Speaker 1: walk me through some of your process.

95
00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,400
Speaker 3: So what I did was I dusted off my team

96
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:45,600
Speaker 3: rating sheet from last year, so I'm not starting from scratch.

97
00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,760
Speaker 3: I have all my you know, modeling from last year,

98
00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,360
Speaker 3: so I'm essentially resetting that to this year, paying attention

99
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,280
Speaker 3: to off season moves, coaching changes, things like that, and

100
00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,920
Speaker 3: just you know, it's mid April, so I'm just getting

101
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,560
Speaker 3: rough estimates right now, and then from there we have

102
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,440
Speaker 3: the schedule information. We don't know, you know, the exact

103
00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,160
Speaker 3: order yet, but I you know, I have the exact

104
00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:12,000
Speaker 3: schedule mapped out. I factored in these London games, in

105
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,159
Speaker 3: the Mexico City game, so taking away home field advantage

106
00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,880
Speaker 3: for neutral games like that. So just mapping out as

107
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,520
Speaker 3: best I can with the information we have, and then

108
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,960
Speaker 3: from there, you know, generating what my projected wind total is.

109
00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,840
Speaker 3: So that's how I'm going about it right now. And

110
00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:33,120
Speaker 3: I mean I don't really try to tackle unders or overs,

111
00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:37,919
Speaker 3: but my five picks they are all unders. And you know,

112
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,240
Speaker 3: if I mapped out what the sports books are projecting

113
00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,280
Speaker 3: for each team, and they average out to be about

114
00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,520
Speaker 3: eight point one wins, which is a little high, and

115
00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:49,520
Speaker 3: I'm closer to seven point nine because I'm factoring in

116
00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,240
Speaker 3: ties as well. So I think I found, you know,

117
00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,240
Speaker 3: some incant season in the market where there might be

118
00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:57,960
Speaker 3: slightly more value in the unders due to that. But

119
00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 3: you know, in general, I'm just looking for the most

120
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,480
Speaker 3: and it just so happens to be on unders. Like

121
00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:03,359
Speaker 3: if you could discuss in.

122
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,880
Speaker 1: A bit, yeah, Ravon, what about you? It sounds like

123
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,799
Speaker 1: like Sean uses more of a top down approach, although

124
00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,600
Speaker 1: I might be mischaracterizing it, but how do you approach

125
00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 1: win totals and creating your projections?

126
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:19,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I pretty much do the same thing.

127
00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,160
Speaker 4: I start with, you know, some similar kind of ratings

128
00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:29,080
Speaker 4: that essentially are what a team's projected winning percentage would

129
00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,479
Speaker 4: be against like a league average schedule, and then I

130
00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:33,640
Speaker 4: kind of from there, I kind of you know, map

131
00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,280
Speaker 4: out the schedule and then you can kind of get

132
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,600
Speaker 4: a projected win probability for each game. So that's one

133
00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,479
Speaker 4: way I go about it at this point in the season, though,

134
00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:43,880
Speaker 4: and for people listening that you know, don't want to

135
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,920
Speaker 4: necessarily kind of do something as complicated as that, but

136
00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,720
Speaker 4: still are interested in betting win totals, I would say,

137
00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,480
Speaker 4: you know, I'm just kind of looking at like kind

138
00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:55,480
Speaker 4: of group of teams into you know, four or five tiers,

139
00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,400
Speaker 4: you know, terrible, below average, average, above average, and great,

140
00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,720
Speaker 4: and then from there it's just a matter of kind

141
00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:03,840
Speaker 4: of you know, looking at win totals and saying, Okay,

142
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,240
Speaker 4: you know, this is a team that I think is average,

143
00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,440
Speaker 4: but their win total is six, and so you know,

144
00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 4: I might I might want to look at the over there,

145
00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,880
Speaker 4: and I also look at the pythagorin wins from last year.

146
00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,280
Speaker 4: You know, there's there's been you know, studies shown that

147
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,800
Speaker 4: you know, teams that outperform their their win total tend

148
00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:21,680
Speaker 4: to regress and vice versus.

149
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,600
Speaker 2: So those are just some things that that.

150
00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:25,920
Speaker 4: I'm looking at, and also draft capital. You know, I

151
00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,200
Speaker 4: also agree with Sean about the unders. I think in

152
00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,440
Speaker 4: general you're looking to bet unders. I'm all really across

153
00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,520
Speaker 4: the betting market. I mean, that's true for props, that's true.

154
00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,760
Speaker 4: For for game totals, that's true. You know, like underdogs

155
00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,400
Speaker 4: tend to be more profitable than favorites. I'm same thing

156
00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,720
Speaker 4: for totals. But I will say that at this time

157
00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:42,720
Speaker 4: of year, I'm a little. I'm looking for overs a

158
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,360
Speaker 4: little more because what happens is, say a team with

159
00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,760
Speaker 4: a lot of draft capital in a position to really

160
00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,040
Speaker 4: kind of improve their roster after the draft, that win

161
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,400
Speaker 4: total might jump a half win or even a whole win.

162
00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,000
Speaker 4: So if I'm looking to bet any overs, I'm trying

163
00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,960
Speaker 4: to get on them a little earlier, whereas the under

164
00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,120
Speaker 4: the usually not as many better they're going to be

165
00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,280
Speaker 4: betting those, so the lines aren't necessarily going to be

166
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,040
Speaker 4: to bet down or change too much.

167
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 1: That's interesting, Chris. I want to ask you a follow

168
00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 1: up question on that. This might be getting a little

169
00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,040
Speaker 1: too in the weeds, But do you take into account

170
00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 1: a little bit when thinking about draft capital and maybe

171
00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,280
Speaker 1: the ability of the general manager to use that draft

172
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,160
Speaker 1: capital wisely? Like, do you take that into account? So

173
00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 1: if it's one team that has draft capital versus another

174
00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:29,440
Speaker 1: team that has draft capital, and one has just a

175
00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,839
Speaker 1: general manager who historically hasn't been able to do well

176
00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:37,240
Speaker 1: in the draft, hasn't done well in kind of creating

177
00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,160
Speaker 1: players who fit his scheme, you know, like, do you

178
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,240
Speaker 1: do you take that into accounts?

179
00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,440
Speaker 2: Absolutely? Although I will say that it's kind.

180
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,960
Speaker 4: Of been shown as well that the draft is largely

181
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,280
Speaker 4: a crapshoot, and the best way to kind of crush

182
00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,199
Speaker 4: the draft is to have draft capital. So it's usually

183
00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,160
Speaker 4: going to line up anyway. Like, if I don't like

184
00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 4: a team and I don't like where they're positioned before

185
00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,000
Speaker 4: the draft, I probably it's probably because they don't have

186
00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,960
Speaker 4: such a great general manager in the first place, and

187
00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 4: so I probably won't be that that bullish on them

188
00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,839
Speaker 4: in the first place. But definitely, I definitely do take

189
00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,120
Speaker 4: that into consideration, and we could talk about that with

190
00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 4: some of the individual teams that that will run through

191
00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:16,880
Speaker 4: it a way or in the show.

192
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting. All right, Well, let's let's start talking

193
00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 1: about it. And I think what we should do is

194
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,320
Speaker 1: we'll each kind of break down a little bit our

195
00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:29,680
Speaker 1: top five favorite win total bets for twenty nineteen and

196
00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,480
Speaker 1: what kind of alternate, so we kind of keep it

197
00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:38,440
Speaker 1: non monotonous. Sean, Let's start with you give us your

198
00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:40,080
Speaker 1: your favorite win.

199
00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 3: Total my favorite Okay.

200
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,120
Speaker 1: Well, do you think that's the way we should say

201
00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:46,880
Speaker 1: with the least interesting?

202
00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:52,400
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, okay, So but before I get into it, though,

203
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,560
Speaker 3: I do want to point out that, you know, when

204
00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,400
Speaker 3: we talked about these you know, the number of win

205
00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,560
Speaker 3: totals mean something, but also the price and just a

206
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:06,520
Speaker 3: quick reference, I consider half a win worth about minus

207
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,400
Speaker 3: one thirty five on the money line, and a full

208
00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,079
Speaker 3: win would be about minus one eighty. So when you're referencing,

209
00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,319
Speaker 3: you know, under six and a half and it's minus

210
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,480
Speaker 3: one thirty, that's kind of or one minus one thirty five.

211
00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,160
Speaker 3: I'm considering that about a half under. So having said that,

212
00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,199
Speaker 3: and also, you know, shot for the best line. You

213
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,440
Speaker 3: don't want to just get stuck getting the one number

214
00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:30,760
Speaker 3: that you're looking at. You kind of want to shop

215
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,960
Speaker 3: around if you can. Having said that, my first bet

216
00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:39,080
Speaker 3: is Lions under seven at minus one fifteen. You know,

217
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,480
Speaker 3: this is mostly just getting a good number. I don't

218
00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,000
Speaker 3: really have too much of a strong opinion about the Lions.

219
00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:48,240
Speaker 3: This is gonna be Patricia's second season after disappointing six

220
00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,240
Speaker 3: and ten season last year. He's bringing some of his

221
00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:56,199
Speaker 3: former pats Ammondola, Justin Coleman, Troy Flowers. They also brought

222
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 3: in CJ. Anderson, which I thought was a pretty good move,

223
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,240
Speaker 3: even though he probably won't be as good as he

224
00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,240
Speaker 3: was on the Rams, but I'd like some of the

225
00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:07,319
Speaker 3: moves they made, but the NFC North is you know, stacked.

226
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,440
Speaker 3: I can share them tied for the toughest division with

227
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,120
Speaker 3: the AFC South as far as being competitive, so you know,

228
00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,800
Speaker 3: the Lions have a tough draw with you know, the Packers, Bears,

229
00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,040
Speaker 3: and Vikings all being potential Super Bowl contenders this year,

230
00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 3: and their schedule itself is pretty bizarre. I have them

231
00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,400
Speaker 3: as being slight favorites to A pick them in two

232
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:31,800
Speaker 3: road games and only favorites twice at home, so my

233
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,360
Speaker 3: projection for them is closer to six point two. So

234
00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,600
Speaker 3: I think getting seven is a great number to get

235
00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,280
Speaker 3: because you know it's harder to see them winning eight

236
00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,120
Speaker 3: games or more. So I think, you know, six or

237
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,840
Speaker 3: less as likely, and you know if they get seven

238
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:47,280
Speaker 3: it's a push. So I think this is a pretty

239
00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 3: safe bet Lions under seven.

240
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,040
Speaker 1: Okay and sewn. Just to make sure this is the

241
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,000
Speaker 1: one that is your most favorite or your fifth most favorite,

242
00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:02,120
Speaker 1: fifth most favorite? Yes, okay, correct? All right, Raybond, let's

243
00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,000
Speaker 1: get your number five bets for twenty nineteen.

244
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,760
Speaker 4: Okay, so my number five, I thought we're going to

245
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 4: go and reversal in the other order, but my number

246
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:15,240
Speaker 4: five is the Tennessee Titans under eight and a half wins.

247
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,199
Speaker 2: That to me is just too high.

248
00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,320
Speaker 4: And I think part of that is coming from the

249
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,240
Speaker 4: fact that they have these three nine win seasons in

250
00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,160
Speaker 4: a row and kind of, you know, beat expectations, even

251
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:26,959
Speaker 4: though a lot of that was with you know, different

252
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:28,760
Speaker 4: coaching staffs and whatnot, and they're kind of getting this

253
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,600
Speaker 4: undue credit for that. I really don't think that this

254
00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,720
Speaker 4: team is anything is anything more than an average team.

255
00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:37,800
Speaker 2: I think they actually are a little bit below average.

256
00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:39,640
Speaker 4: I don't think that a lot of what they did

257
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,640
Speaker 4: last year, just kind of feeding the ball to Derrick

258
00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,199
Speaker 4: Henry eight thousand times per game, is really going to

259
00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,400
Speaker 4: be sustainable going forward. And I think eventually they are

260
00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 4: going to kind of come back down to earth. I really,

261
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,680
Speaker 4: you know, as I'm sure you know Friedman, I love

262
00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,760
Speaker 4: the the Hoaston Texans in that division.

263
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:56,560
Speaker 2: I think that Indianapolis.

264
00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,720
Speaker 4: Colts are much improved even from last year as well.

265
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,040
Speaker 4: And then the Jaguars could you know, they're kind of

266
00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:04,960
Speaker 4: a wild card, but they could easily, you know, the

267
00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,920
Speaker 4: Titans could essentially have the fourth word, the worst quarterback

268
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,199
Speaker 4: in that division. And I don't see why they're getting

269
00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,320
Speaker 4: any credit for me in an average above average team

270
00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:14,640
Speaker 4: right now.

271
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:16,640
Speaker 2: So that's my fifth favorite.

272
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,520
Speaker 1: I like that one. And what was the number you

273
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,199
Speaker 1: gave again? What for what?

274
00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:22,640
Speaker 2: H under?

275
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:22,800
Speaker 1: Eight?

276
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:24,320
Speaker 3: Under eight and a half? R?

277
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm seeing it eight and a half. I'm sure

278
00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:27,520
Speaker 4: I would. I would think that's going to go down

279
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:30,280
Speaker 4: and pretty quickly. At there's actually one book that I

280
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,439
Speaker 4: saw it not even listed right now, which which I

281
00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:33,920
Speaker 4: don't know exactly why that is, but.

282
00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:37,520
Speaker 3: I couldn't figured that out.

283
00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so yeah, the reason why I was, I'm

284
00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,720
Speaker 1: right there with you. That actually is my fifth favorite

285
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,080
Speaker 1: one too, for all of the reasons that you mentioned,

286
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:48,959
Speaker 1: the biggest being that I think they are in a

287
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,280
Speaker 1: tough division and they I do think that they have

288
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,640
Speaker 1: the worst quarterback in that division. I mean, I think

289
00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,520
Speaker 1: it's hard to expect the Jags to improve markedly, but

290
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,120
Speaker 1: I think it definitely is within the realm of possibility.

291
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,720
Speaker 1: And I'm really not all that impressed with what they've

292
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,000
Speaker 1: shown they being the Titans offensively, and I don't know

293
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 1: if the additions that they made to the team are

294
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:14,079
Speaker 1: really enough to make their offense much better. And they

295
00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,960
Speaker 1: are losing their two primary pass rushers, so you know,

296
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,120
Speaker 1: I think there are significant worries about them, and yeah,

297
00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 1: I don't have anything more to say, because you nailed it.

298
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,800
Speaker 1: I will go next with my fourth favorite, and that

299
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,720
Speaker 1: is the under for the Ravens at eight and a half.

300
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,360
Speaker 1: It's a similar situation where I think they are in

301
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 1: a division that is still pretty tough. I think they

302
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 1: overperformed for a significant portion of last year with the

303
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,800
Speaker 1: switch in the middle of the season to Lamar Jackson,

304
00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 1: where teams just kind of weren't sure how to gain

305
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,840
Speaker 1: plan for them. The Browns are improving. The Steelers, I

306
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 1: think are going to be good. I think the loss

307
00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 1: of Antonio Brown won't be as significant for their win

308
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:02,480
Speaker 1: total big surprise as you know people think, and I

309
00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,680
Speaker 1: mean the Bengals, it's hard to know what to expect

310
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 1: out of them, but I think they could still be

311
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,760
Speaker 1: a little bit better. And then you have the Ravens

312
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:15,280
Speaker 1: losing a significant number of defenders, and their defense has

313
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,840
Speaker 1: really been one of the things throughout the you know,

314
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,480
Speaker 1: the last decade that has kind of been been steady,

315
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 1: and with all of the turnover on that side of

316
00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:27,480
Speaker 1: the ball, I could see them regressing there a little bit.

317
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,640
Speaker 1: So I do like under eight and a half four

318
00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens. Raven Let's kick it back to you,

319
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 1: what is your fourth favorite?

320
00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:42,280
Speaker 4: For my fourth favorite, I am going with the Arizona Cardinals.

321
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 4: I've seen this listed at five over five in some

322
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,360
Speaker 4: spots and other spots at over five point five. I

323
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 4: obviously would much rather get it at five than five

324
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,000
Speaker 4: point five, but I just think that this is a

325
00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 4: team that could be in for a pretty decent turnaround,

326
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,800
Speaker 4: even if they're not like spectacular, like the way you know,

327
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,640
Speaker 4: the Bears were in Matt Naggie's first year or the

328
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 4: Rams were in Sean mcvay's first year. I just think

329
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,560
Speaker 4: that I do believe in Kingsbury. I think he is

330
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,320
Speaker 4: going to improve the offense and just improve the way

331
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 4: they do things.

332
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,160
Speaker 2: I still think they got some pieces.

333
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,200
Speaker 4: They still got David Johnson, who's a you know, kind

334
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,600
Speaker 4: of a boardline superstar. Thats being forgotten, and so you know,

335
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 4: they modest improvements to the O line, modest improvements, you know,

336
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,760
Speaker 4: to corner opposite opposite Patrick Peterson. And again, you know,

337
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 4: when you have a win total that's essentially the lowest

338
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,200
Speaker 4: in the league or one of the the two most

339
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,440
Speaker 4: in the league, you always have to think long and

340
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,440
Speaker 4: hard about the the under, you go in the opposite way.

341
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 4: So if it's like a really low one, you want

342
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 4: to think about the over. If it's a really high one,

343
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,400
Speaker 4: you want to think about the under because that's where

344
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 4: you're gonna find some value out of the time.

345
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 2: So I do like the.

346
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 4: Cardinals, you know, I do think they're in a bit

347
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,480
Speaker 4: of a you know, they are in a tough division,

348
00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,680
Speaker 4: but I think that's also creating value and I think

349
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 4: that people are going to be a little slow to adapt.

350
00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,080
Speaker 4: And they're another team that I think in the draft,

351
00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 4: you know, coming out of the draft, whatever they do,

352
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 4: whether where it's you know, take Kyler Murray, whether it's

353
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 4: kind of you know, use all of the you know

354
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,120
Speaker 4: that that pick and kind of flip it for even

355
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,159
Speaker 4: more capital, or if they flip Rosen for more capital

356
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 4: or players or whatever, I think that they're going to

357
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 4: come out of the draft looking a lot better than

358
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:15,920
Speaker 4: they did going in. They have the third most draft

359
00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,760
Speaker 4: capital according to Chase Stewart's you know numbers. So I

360
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 4: really like the Cardinals right now, especially at over five,

361
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 4: but I do it at over five and a half

362
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 4: as well.

363
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: Raveon I want to ask you a follow up question

364
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 1: on this, Would you feel different because I'm assuming that

365
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,399
Speaker 1: you are assuming that they are going to have Kyler

366
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,840
Speaker 1: Murray but maybe not. Would you feel differently knowing that

367
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 1: they don't spend the number one pick on Kyler Murray

368
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,760
Speaker 1: and they go with Josh Rosen instead, and like maybe

369
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,719
Speaker 1: they you know, they trade down, they get more draft capital,

370
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,960
Speaker 1: whatever it is. But since the quarterback position is so

371
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,440
Speaker 1: important in general, how would that impact the way you feel?

372
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I would probably feel a little bit better

373
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,639
Speaker 4: if they did take Murray, because I think in this

374
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,479
Speaker 4: era of the NFL, I think those are the kind

375
00:17:57,520 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 4: of picks you have to make, whether whatever you do

376
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 4: with whether you keep Rosen or not. But at the

377
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 4: same time, again, I think it's tough to kind of

378
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 4: analyze how a team is going to perform in the

379
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,679
Speaker 4: draft versus just looking at their draft capital and saying, okay,

380
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 4: like one way or another, the public perception of this team,

381
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 4: you know, is going to be higher coming out of

382
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 4: the draft just because they have the third most draft capital.

383
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,359
Speaker 2: And so if I think I think this team is

384
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 2: in for.

385
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 4: An improvement either way, and I'll give you a data

386
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 4: point to back that up, you know, going back, So

387
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 4: the Cardinals went three games a season ago, going back.

388
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,160
Speaker 2: Fifteen years, three win teams.

389
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,440
Speaker 4: Guess how many wins they average the next year six

390
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 4: six and a half, right, So, you know, just naturally

391
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,120
Speaker 4: because the NFL, you know, teams, the good teams are

392
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 4: getting hurt, and you know, there's all this regression to

393
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,399
Speaker 4: the mean, and it's really tough to stay good for

394
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 4: long periods of time. And it's it's not that easy

395
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 4: to stay bad for that long period of time, unless

396
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 4: maybe the Cleveland Browns in the last two decades before

397
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,640
Speaker 4: before now. But I think that that in itself kind

398
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 4: of winds winds a lot to the pick. And then

399
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 4: I really do like the direction to going. So this

400
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:07,719
Speaker 4: is one again with these overs. I'm looking to bed

401
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 4: at a little a little sooner.

402
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 1: All right, I am. I'm with you there. I think

403
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 1: I would take that over And it was on my

404
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 1: list for consideration for the top five. Sean, let's kick

405
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: it to you. What is your fourth favorite win total?

406
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 3: So my fourth favorite is Chargers under nine and a

407
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 3: half plus one twenty And it kills me because I

408
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 3: have them as a top five team. I think there's

409
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 3: so much talent on both sides of the ball. They

410
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 3: don't really have a weakness. And they get Hunter Henry

411
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 3: back this year. I think that's gonna be huge for them.

412
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 3: But I think with them it's it's always overlooked and

413
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 3: I can't emphasize it enough. They don't really have home

414
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 3: field advantage, you know, I constantly forget that. I live

415
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes away from their stadium. That's just how it

416
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,719
Speaker 3: is out here. So they you know, they play. They

417
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 3: have another season at Dignity Health Sports Park, which sets

418
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 3: thirty thousand people, and half the crowd is rooting for

419
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 3: the way team. It's it's pretty unfortunate, and you know,

420
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 3: I'm factoring that in to my team rating for their schedule.

421
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 3: They also lost one of their home games against the

422
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 3: Chiefs of All teams to the neutral site game at

423
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,400
Speaker 3: Mexico City. That dings them a little bit, so they

424
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:13,959
Speaker 3: you know, they have to win on the road. They

425
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 3: went eight and two on the road last year, only

426
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 3: four and three at home last year two and five

427
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,679
Speaker 3: against the spread. So I think it's just a factor

428
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,359
Speaker 3: that most people don't take an account. So I have

429
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,479
Speaker 3: them as a slight underdog and three games all season,

430
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,679
Speaker 3: like I said, they're a top five team for me,

431
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 3: but you know, they're only a five point or more

432
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 3: favorite in three games, so that leaves ten games where

433
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 3: I have them between a pick them and a four

434
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 3: point favorite. They're just gonna have to win a lot

435
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 3: of close games. And last year, you know, they fortunately

436
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 3: went four and one in games that were three points

437
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 3: or less, and the year before that they went one

438
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 3: and four, So I think they're gonna have a lot

439
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 3: of volatility. So I'm only gonna take the under nine

440
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 3: and a half here at plus one twenty. I just

441
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 3: you know, I have them around nine and a half,

442
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: just you know, I think it should be minus one

443
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 3: ten both ways on this. I'm just taking the value

444
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 3: on the price here, all.

445
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 1: Right, And what is your third favorite?

446
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 3: My third favorite is the Texans under eight and a

447
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 3: half at plus one hundred. Again, I'm not here to

448
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 3: bash the Texans. This has everything to do with their schedule.

449
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 3: I have them graded out as the toughest schedule next year,

450
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 3: so I think this line's a bit of a trap.

451
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 3: You know, they won eleven games last year. They're a

452
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 3: good team, but if they had the Patriots schedule, so

453
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 3: I just past it in the Patriots schedule, their team

454
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 3: total would jump up one point six, so I'd probably

455
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 3: set it closer to ten. So that just goes to

456
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 3: show how the schedule draw matters. They have to play

457
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 3: at the Chargers, at the Chiefs, at the Saints, and

458
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 3: they get the Patriots at home. The AFC South, like

459
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 3: I mentioned, is one of the toughest divisions, so they

460
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 3: have the Colts, Titans, Jaguars. You know, Nick Foles led

461
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 3: Jaguars team being the worst team in a division is

462
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 3: that's a tough division. So I actually have their win

463
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 3: total being closer to eight point two despite me actually

464
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 3: grading them out pretty high. So this is something that

465
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 3: you know, I think the edge at this time of

466
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: year is in just you know, using the schedule, and

467
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 3: I think that, you know, sportsbooks are kind of inflating

468
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 3: a little bit because I don't think enough people realize

469
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 3: how tough their schedule.

470
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: Is this year. Okay, so Raybon, let's get your third

471
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: favorite win total for twenty nineteen.

472
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 4: Third favorite, I'm going with you already know who my

473
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 4: beloved Houston Texans over eight and a half wins.

474
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 1: You know, perfect, this is perfect.

475
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 4: You know again, I think that when you have a

476
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 4: quarterback like Deshaun Watson, and when you have you know,

477
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 4: you just have a high upside core of talent, which

478
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 4: I think that the Texans do with DeAndre Hopkins and

479
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 4: some of the players they have on the defensive side

480
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 4: of the ball, even though they obviously still have some weaknesses,

481
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,919
Speaker 4: you know, on that team as well. I think that

482
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 4: you know this eight and a half, I still think

483
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 4: that they.

484
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 2: Should be able to get over that.

485
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 4: They've been over that all but one year under Bill O'Brien,

486
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 4: so they they've kind of had a high floor, except

487
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 4: for the one year when you know, injuries just really

488
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 4: kind of destroyed their whole season and they went four

489
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 4: and twelve, I believe, So I think there's.

490
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:12,719
Speaker 2: A little bit of value here.

491
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 4: And I still think that the Texans are significantly better

492
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 4: than teams like the Titans and Jaguars in that division.

493
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 4: So I think it's kind of you know, them and

494
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 4: the Colts on one side, and the Titans and Jags

495
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 4: on the other side.

496
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like the Texans to get at least ninemans.

497
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 4: I think they're above average team more so than than

498
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 4: an average one.

499
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 3: Look at the schedule right now, I want to see

500
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 3: your reaction looking at their schedule. Just look at the

501
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 3: game by game.

502
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 2: It's not easy.

503
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: It's not easy.

504
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: But that's the.

505
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 4: Thing, Like, I don't like, you got to give a

506
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 4: little weight to schedule now, But I think the Texans

507
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 4: can win against you know, teams that are better than them.

508
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 4: And I think because of Deshaun Watson, because of Hopkins,

509
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 4: you know, because of some of the players they have,

510
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 4: the difference makers they have on defense. I think they're

511
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 4: the type of team that steals wins against against teams

512
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 4: that you look at the schedule and are like, oh,

513
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 4: oh no, so I mean, but I mean, Freeman know

514
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 4: this already, so he you know, he knew I was

515
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: gonna bet the Textans regovers.

516
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: But I'm with you.

517
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 3: I don't really have that many bad things to say

518
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 3: about their their schedule, and they you know, they have

519
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 3: to improve the offensive line just you know, Deshaun Watson

520
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 3: has to stay healthy. Right, So yeah, I agree that,

521
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 3: you know, they won eleven games last year deservely, So

522
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 3: I just their schedule.

523
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 2: Not get it. I totally get it.

524
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 4: I think you know, last year that was one of

525
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 4: the main criticisms of the Texans was that, you know,

526
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 4: they they did play an easy schedule and they cruised

527
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 4: to eleven wins.

528
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 2: But if you do look back.

529
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 4: At you know, the last fifteen years, you know, eleven

530
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 4: win teams do still you know, they do decline about

531
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 4: seventy three percent of the time, but they still average

532
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 4: a nine point two wins the next year. So it's

533
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 4: not like one of those situations where you tend to

534
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 4: see like a huge decline like I think there's I

535
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,919
Speaker 4: think they could still kind of come back down to

536
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 4: earth and be an above average team, and they've been.

537
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 4: They've done so with you know, far worse rosters.

538
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 2: I think.

539
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 1: All right, well, leave it to to Chris to to

540
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: talk about the Houston Texans and how great they are.

541
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: I feel like it's in every podcast thing. Okay, my

542
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: third favorite win total. I'd like your guys feedback on this.

543
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 1: I'm a little conflicted about it. Eagles over nine and

544
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 1: a half, and for me, there are a few factors,

545
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: one being that Carson Wentz presumably should be healthier, so

546
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 1: I think we will see a better version of him,

547
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 1: even if it's not like the full MVP caliber twenty

548
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: seventeen Carson Wentz. I think he will be better than

549
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: the twenty and eighteen version, and I think that will

550
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: be significant for them. And then more importantly, I think

551
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: we are going to see some pretty unimpressive play from

552
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: the Giants and the Redskins. Both of them I think

553
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: have pretty subpar quarterback situations, which I think are going

554
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 1: to be muddied even more by the fact that I

555
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: expect both of them, or at least one of them,

556
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 1: to draft a rookie quarterback. But I think both of

557
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: them could, and so I think we could see a

558
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 1: situation where we have near the second half of the season,

559
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: two teams in that division starting rookie quarterbacks kind of

560
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 1: just looking to get their guys some playing time, not

561
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: really looking to compete, and the Eagles could take advantage

562
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 1: of that by sneaking out a win or two that

563
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: they maybe otherwise wouldn't have gotten. So that's where I'm

564
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: at right now with them. I would have them closer,

565
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: I think to I mean, I think setting it at

566
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 1: ten and a half would be aggressive for them, but

567
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: it wouldn't surprise me if they got eleven wins this year.

568
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 1: So that's kind of where I'm at with them right now.

569
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: What do you guys think?

570
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like the over there a little bit,

571
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 3: not enough for me to clear the vig or anything,

572
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 3: but I could get on board with that. They have

573
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: the second or third easiest schedule. You know, the NFC

574
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: East is the division you want to be in right

575
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 3: now for them, and you know they added AF legend

576
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 3: Charles Johnson so and Greg Ward Junior, so you know

577
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 3: they have one of the best front offices. They took

578
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: advantage of that. They just have a complete roster. So

579
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 3: while I'm not betting on any overs yet, they're definitely

580
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 3: one of the teams I think would be a safer

581
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 3: bet for the over, especially at nine and a half.

582
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 3: I think that's that's a good pick on my end.

583
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, and then my second favorite, I'm coming at

584
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 1: you with another over, the Bills. And I'm almost embarrassed

585
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: that I'm saying this because I cannot be accused at

586
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: all of being a Josh Allen Truther. But I think

587
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 1: he will improve a little bit in his second season,

588
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 1: like I feel like he has to at some point.

589
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 1: This defense has still been pretty good, and they play

590
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 1: in a division that I think is absolutely horrible. They're

591
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 1: playing in a division with two teams that are being

592
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 1: gazed simultaneously. One you have the Dolphins, who have like

593
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 1: the aftermath of having been gazed for three seasons, and

594
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: then you have the Jets who are currently about to

595
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 1: be gazed. So it's the situation where I think that

596
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: the Bills will fall into some extra wins just because

597
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: you have the Dolphins tanking and you have the Jets,

598
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: I think, handcuffed by their coach and not yet ready

599
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: to take the next step forward. And then combine that

600
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: with maybe maybe the Patriots regressing just a little bit,

601
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: although I don't want to like project that too much

602
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: because I still think the Patriots are the team to

603
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: beat in that division and a very good team in general.

604
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: But I like the additions. That's the teammate in the

605
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: off season. I liked adding John Brown. I think that

606
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: was a good move. So I'm, you know, I'm expecting

607
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: more than what is the number right now is.

608
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 3: Six and a half?

609
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 1: Six and a half. Yeah, I think they'll get to seven.

610
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: So that that's where I am. What do you guys

611
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: think there?

612
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 4: I actually am a big fan of the Bills and

613
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 4: we're only doing top five here, so but the Bills

614
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 4: are kind of on my list. I'm gonna do I'm

615
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 4: doing two pieces, one on the overs I like and

616
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 4: one on the unders I like, and it'll probably be

617
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 4: out by the time you guys listen to this. But

618
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 4: the Bills are one of those teams that I do

619
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 4: like the over and I think that it's kind of

620
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: gonna gone a little bit unnoticed what they've done since

621
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: Sean mcgermott has gotten there. I mean, they essentially outperformed

622
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 4: the talent on their roster. You know, in back to

623
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 4: back years they had no business making the playoffs that

624
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 4: first year, even last year, you know, with the talent

625
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 4: they had, I think they they exceeded expectations. And I

626
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 4: think Josh Allen, as imperfect and flawed as he is

627
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 4: in this era of the NFL, kind of gives them

628
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 4: some upside, you know, in a sense that I could

629
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 4: see Josh Allen as like a poor man's Cam Newton,

630
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 4: because remember how inaccurate Cam Newton was for the early

631
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 4: part of his career. And we've already seen Josh Allen,

632
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 4: you know, the way he can run the ball and

633
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 4: the way he can throw get it downfield. The Bills

634
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 4: are kind of this little higher ceiling, lower floor team

635
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 4: than maybe most teams in the NFL. So I'm actually

636
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 4: a big fan of those because I think they I

637
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 4: think they've been doing a lot of things right, and

638
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 4: it's unfortunate for them that Buffalo is just, you know,

639
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: not a place where where NFL players want to play,

640
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 4: because I know you don't like Antonio Brown Friedman, but

641
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 4: I mean I think that would have been a obviously

642
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 4: a huge addition for them. So I think, you know,

643
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 4: they're on the right track, and I could definitely see

644
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 4: them exceeding expectations yet again.

645
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would have personally loved to have

646
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: seen Antonio Brown and in Buffalo. The idea of him

647
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 1: trying to catch passes from someone who is easily more

648
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: inaccurate than Ben Roethlisberger would have brought me great pleasure.

649
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 4: Oh my god, speaking of better like can I just

650
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 4: like I think we were talking about this last year.

651
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 4: It's kind of related, but we had a pod where

652
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 4: we were talking about like interception, I think, like futures

653
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 4: season futures, And so I bet the under on Ben

654
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 4: Roethlisberger's interception prop and he led the league in interceptions

655
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 4: and I still won that bet, which just tells you

656
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 4: how ridiculously high interception props are set like if like

657
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 4: you just got to bang the unders on every single

658
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 4: one of them almost because it's just it's just ridiculous.

659
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: Okay, let's kick it back to you, Raybon. Your second

660
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: favorite win total?

661
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: Oh, New Orleans Saints under ten and a half wins,

662
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 4: it's a it's at minus one ten. I think that

663
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 4: the Saints are in like like, so, first of all,

664
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 4: let me say this, when you see a win total

665
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 4: of ten and a half, like that better be I

666
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 4: think like a top a shoot in, like top two

667
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 4: three team in the NFL.

668
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 2: I don't think the Saints are that.

669
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 4: I think the public perception maybe that they are because

670
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 4: of you know, they were a play away from the

671
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 4: Super Bowl.

672
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,959
Speaker 2: And they got robbed and and whatnot.

673
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 4: But I think that over the second half of the

674
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 4: season we did see some some some troubling signs. They

675
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 4: kind of weren't able to really crush teams the way

676
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 4: they were over over that you know, early to mid

677
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 4: season stretch. I think they're a really fragile team at

678
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 4: this point. You know, Drew breeses he didn't look quite

679
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 4: right down the stretch last year. We don't know exactly,

680
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 4: you know, if he's going to begin declining or how

681
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 4: steeper or sudden it will be. You know, Michael Thomas

682
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: is kind of still the only thing that really got

683
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: I don't think I'm as convinced about, you know, guys

684
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 4: like tray Quon Smith, you know, after after kind of

685
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 4: seeing him his consistency last year.

686
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, Jared Cook.

687
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 4: We've seen how these kind of older free agent tight

688
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 4: ends tend to tend to do, and they go to

689
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 4: new teams, they don't necessarily always live up to the

690
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 4: to the hype, and then usually I would be a little,

691
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 4: you know, a little worried about betting on the on

692
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 4: the Saints under especially before the draft, because they usually

693
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 4: do find a couple of steals in the draft, you know,

694
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 4: I mean, look guy like Kamara, Michael Thomas and guys

695
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 4: like that. But they don't have many picks this year,

696
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 4: and they have actually one of the fewest draft capitals

697
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 4: among all the teams in the league, number thirty one

698
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 4: out of thirty two. So I don't think that this

699
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: year is necessarily going to be as fruitful for them

700
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 4: in the draft. And when you look at their roster,

701
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 4: there's it's still kind of it's still kind of top heavy,

702
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 4: and I think I think very fragile if something would

703
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 4: have happened to one of those top three key players

704
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 4: on their offense, and and and you know, losing mark

705
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 4: ingram Is still is still a downgrade as well in

706
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 4: my opinion. So I think that this went total is

707
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: too high. I think that they're still a good team.

708
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 4: But if I can and get them, you know, if

709
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 4: I can, if they can win ten games, and I

710
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 4: can still win that bet, I'll take it all day.

711
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 4: Because if you look at you know, thirteen win teams,

712
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 4: they're only averaging eight point eight wins the next season

713
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 4: going back fifteen years.

714
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, ravon a couple of points off of what you mentioned. One, Yeah,

715
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: the Saints definitely don't have draft capital, and it's because

716
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 1: for the past couple of drafts they've really leveraged themselves

717
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: to move up to try to get players that they

718
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: want to try to maximize their Super Bowl windows. So

719
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: it has left them exposed in the draft this year.

720
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 1: And then secondly, to your point of looking at the

721
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: under I think they're in a pretty tough division. You know,

722
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: it wouldn't be surprising to see the Falcons bounce back.

723
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 3: A little bit.

724
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: Also, if Cam Newton is healthy, He's a competitive guy.

725
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: You know, you can't take either of those games against

726
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: the Panthers, for granted, and then with Bruce Arians coming

727
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: in for the Buccaneers, I don't know if you could

728
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 1: say that either of those games is give me either.

729
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think a pretty tough division there, Sean,

730
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: Let's kick it to you to get your second favorite

731
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: win total.

732
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 3: So, speaking of the tough NFC South Division, my second

733
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 3: favorite is Falcons under nine at minus one twenty, mostly

734
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 3: because I think it's just a good number. They're coming

735
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: off a very disappointing seven to nine season, obviously, but

736
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 3: I think we could chuck a lot of that up

737
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 3: to you know, the cluster of injuries they had on

738
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 3: the defense very early in the season. So you know

739
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 3: when Deon Jones, Can and Neil and Riccarl Allen all

740
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 3: got hurt and like week two, I was tackoring that

741
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 3: in right away, and predictably, you know, they they tend

742
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: to struggle after that, so I think I expect them

743
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 3: to bounce back this year. But they do have the

744
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 3: fifth toughest schedule the Cormin model, so I only have

745
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 3: them favorite two times on the road and they're actually

746
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 3: a home dog twice, and the only game that they're

747
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 3: favored by six or more for me is at home

748
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 3: against Tampa Bay. So I think they have a really

749
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 3: tough schedule. So based on the schedule alone, I see

750
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 3: them being more as a five hundred team despite me

751
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: having them. You know, they're a top ten team for me.

752
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 3: So once again, I think this time of year, I'm

753
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 3: mostly exploiting you know, the strength of schedule metrics I have.

754
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 3: So I think they will bounce back and they should

755
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 3: be a nine to ten win team. But just you know,

756
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 3: I could see them winning eight very easily, So I

757
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 3: think getting that nine number to get the push at

758
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: nine wins is key. So I like the under there.

759
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting, probably have to shop around because I think

760
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 1: it's some books it's eight and a half, some at nine,

761
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: So shop around to find the best number there. All right, Sean,

762
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 1: hit us with it. What is your your favorites?

763
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 3: So my favorite it feels like a donkey bet because

764
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 3: it's it seems obvious. I want to hear what you

765
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 3: guys think. But Raiders under six and a half at

766
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: minus one twenty, I mean, can't get much worse than

767
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 3: last year for them going four and twelve, getting rid

768
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 3: of you know, Cooper and Mac. They do have good

769
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 3: draft capital, you know, the three first round picks this year,

770
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: so I think they might be in good shape long term.

771
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 3: But for this prop, we're focusing on this year, and

772
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 3: I just think the under six and a half is

773
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 3: a steal right now. Obviously Antonio Brown is going to

774
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 3: help someone on the field, but I think is off

775
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 3: the field and locker room issues could you know, not

776
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 3: be a good ship for them this year. I have

777
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: them having the third toughest schedule. I just don't think

778
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: they're equipped to handle adversity, so if they get off

779
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,399
Speaker 3: to slow start, it could spiral out of control again.

780
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: So you know, they also lost one of their home

781
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 3: games to the London Series against the Bears, so that

782
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 3: you know that docks off a little bit. In my model,

783
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 3: there are seven point underdog or worse in six games,

784
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 3: so I just think, you know, with the last season

785
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 3: Oakland and you know Ab, I I don't know if

786
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 3: he's gonna be a good ship for that locker room.

787
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 3: I could just see things spirally out of control. So

788
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 3: I don't see them winning seven games or more. That's

789
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 3: why I'm taking the under six and a half right now.

790
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 4: I was thinking about that one too, But I that's

791
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 4: one of them that I think actually might be better

792
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 4: off waiting till after the draft, just because they do

793
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 4: have so much draft capital, and like there's essentially like

794
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 4: they have a ridiculous amount of draft capital. I mean,

795
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 4: according to the Chase Stewart numbers, they're number two. The

796
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 4: Giants have a slightly more, But the Giants and Raiders

797
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 4: are kind of in a tier all by themselves. And

798
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: I don't I don't like they could like completely you know,

799
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 4: make boneheaded picks, and like, I just think the public

800
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 4: perception is still going to be that, oh my god,

801
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 4: this team got a lot better, or they could just

802
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 4: make some like another one of these like crazy moves

803
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 4: like that, these kind of a B moves that we don't.

804
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: Even necessarily see coming.

805
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 4: So that's one that I think might actually jump up

806
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 4: a half a pointer. You might get better half a win,

807
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 4: excuse me, where you might get better juice after the

808
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 4: drafts actually monitoring that one.

809
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 3: That's a great point. I love if they go up

810
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 3: to seven. But that's a great point. I was going

811
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 3: to talk about timing and with my Super Super Bowl

812
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 3: pick later. I was going to talk about the timing

813
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 3: of the draft too, but you're right, you know, anticipating,

814
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: you know they're gonna have three first round picks. You're

815
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 3: gonna hear about them a lot improving. So yes, I'm

816
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 3: hoping that, you know, it can go up because right

817
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 3: now I think six and a half is just a

818
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 3: shade too high. So I agree, I would love if

819
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:10,760
Speaker 3: it goes up to seven.

820
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, A great point by Raymond there, And connected to that, Sean,

821
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 1: in the deployment of that draft capital, how would you

822
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: view this line if they did draft a quarterback. Let's say,

823
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 1: like they package their picks, they move up and they

824
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,760
Speaker 1: get Kyler Murray, how would that change things?

825
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't I know, Rayvon's gonna kill me.

826
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 3: I don't think cars, you know, like the worst quarterback

827
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 3: in the league. But you know, when it comes to,

828
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 3: you know, affecting a point spread, you know, I think

829
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 3: that would help them, you know, in the next few

830
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 3: years obviously, but for this year, I wouldn't think it's

831
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 3: a major upgrade, especially having a deal with ab I

832
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,439
Speaker 3: think car might be best equipped to deal with him.

833
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 3: So I don't see that moving in the needle too

834
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 3: much for me one way or the other. I'm just

835
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 3: assuming they'll keep car keep all their picks where they

836
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 3: are are, and just improve defensively and whatnot. But you know,

837
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 3: like Raybond said, let's wait and see how the draft

838
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: impacts teams and then we can kind of take advantage

839
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 3: of that.

840
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Raymond, give us your favorite.

841
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 4: Okay, So again, you know, this is it's all about

842
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 4: timing because I usually do ten toward unders, but a

843
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,479
Speaker 4: lot of the overs I am gonna bet are gonna

844
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 4: be kind of now and this one isn't. It's it's

845
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 4: it's related to the draft, but it isn't necessarily because

846
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 4: they have great draft capital. I think they're gonna make,

847
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 4: you know, these great picks that are going to improve

848
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 4: the perception. I just think that once the draft ends

849
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 4: and everyone looks at every at all the teams throughout

850
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 4: the league and their rosters, they're gonna look at this

851
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 4: team and say, oh wait, hold on, this team is

852
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 4: one of the best teams in the league.

853
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 2: And to me, that's the Cleveland Browns.

854
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 4: I think that this team is going to be, no question,

855
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 4: in my mind, you know, an above average team, a

856
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 4: nine plus win team. So I love them right now

857
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 4: over nine wins, so you know, worse comes to worse.

858
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 2: I think you get to push at nine.

859
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 4: But you know, so I love it a lot more

860
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 4: than nine and a half, and I think it will

861
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 4: go up to that as more people start, you know,

862
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: betting win totals, and they're gonna be obviously chalk trendy pick.

863
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 4: But I mean, I think the roster stacked, and I

864
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 4: think the real key for me is Baker Mayfield. Over

865
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 4: the second half of last season, he was number two

866
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 4: in the league and yard per attempt right up there

867
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 4: with Patrick Mahomes. And you know, there's certain quarterbacks you

868
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 4: know that I think just kind of changed things in

869
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 4: you know, certain offenses that I can think just changed things.

870
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 4: And last year there was like a lot of concern

871
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 4: about the Chiefs and their defense.

872
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 2: And how that would hold up.

873
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 4: And I just think when you have, you know, what

874
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,359
Speaker 4: a top the lead offense that you're gonna outscore you know,

875
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 4: probably ten to eleven teams and win just based off that,

876
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 4: and then when you get to the playoffs, it's going

877
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 4: to kind of be a struggle and you might end

878
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 4: up getting knocked out.

879
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 2: In the first round or whatnot.

880
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 4: But I think this Browns team is already the best

881
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 4: team in their division. I think they're one of the

882
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,240
Speaker 4: best teams in the AFC, right there with the Chiefs

883
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 4: and the and the Patriots. And I think they I

884
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 4: think they probably get double digit win So I'm loving

885
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 4: the Browns now before it gets even chalkier.

886
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. I think we're going to be

887
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 1: Browns fans this year and maybe maybe for a few

888
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: of the coming seasons. I think we're going to be

889
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 1: very interested in them. Oh yeah, all right, my favorite.

890
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: Let me know if I'm wrong with this Dolphins under five.

891
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: I just don't see it. This team is such a

892
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 1: train wreck. Ryan Fitzpatrick is their starting their starting quarterback, Like,

893
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: and they're saying that with a straight face, but like

894
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: with the knowledge that they know that everyone else knows

895
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,959
Speaker 1: that they are tanking this year. They're not really even

896
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 1: trying to hide it. Who is their their best player? Like,

897
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 1: who is the best player on their team? Like Kenyan

898
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 1: Drake Maybe yes, yes, he's in the final year of

899
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: his contract, Like it wouldn't be a surprise if they

900
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 1: traded him at mid season. Albert Wilson is probably their

901
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 1: best wide receiver. Maybe but he's injured. He's I mean, yeah,

902
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 1: Jackie Grant, but he's also injured. Devonte Parker, like the

903
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: ghost of Devonte Parker is how still on that team.

904
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: I mean, there's just there's very little to be excited

905
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 1: about with what this team is doing, especially because they

906
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: are I mean, I would say, like intentionally, like bold

907
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: basically planning to tank. So I don't know, I want

908
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 1: to be pretty invested in going against this team as

909
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 1: much as I can in the win totals. And then

910
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 1: also I think just throughout the season, what are your

911
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: thoughts on Dolphins under five?

912
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're onto something, and you know they won seven

913
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: games last year, so you know, books can bank on

914
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 3: some overaction here. And like you said, I think they're

915
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 3: only going to make moves to get worse this year

916
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: and you know better in the future. So you know,

917
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 3: just having that that's that's more of a game theory play.

918
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 3: I think having that on your side helps Ryan Fitzpatrick

919
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 3: might make them, you know, more exciting fantasy team. But

920
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 3: they're they're clearly expecting to lose in a ton of

921
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 3: games this year, So I get behind that. What line

922
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:02,479
Speaker 3: do you see for five? What's because I think some

923
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:06,240
Speaker 3: sites are moving the juice like closer, like minus one fifty.

924
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 1: So yeah, I so I grabbed it at minus one twenty.

925
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 3: Perfect. Yeah. I was gonna say once it gets to

926
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 3: like minus one forty, I would say that sounds about right.

927
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 3: But if you can get it anywhere north of that,

928
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 3: I can get on board with that.

929
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: Yeah. Okay, let's skip some of these questions that I

930
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: haven't hear in the outline and let's get straight to

931
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: the good stuff. Let's get to the Super Bowl picks, Raybond,

932
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: Let's let's kick it to you.

933
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 2: Sure, so you know super Bowl? I think you have to.

934
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 4: So I did an article a couple of months ago

935
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 4: and essentially just created kind of a quick, little simple

936
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 4: model kind of eliminating the teams that didn't have a

937
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 4: chance of making a Super Bowl, essentially just using DVOA.

938
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 4: So essentially, if a team wasn't above a certain baseline

939
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 4: and at least one facet you know, offense, defense, special teams,

940
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 4: There's never been a Super Bowl winner that you know

941
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 4: didn't have you know, kind of you know, a top third,

942
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 4: top four worth of the league in at least one facet.

943
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 2: So with that says it's just really hard to improve

944
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 2: that drastically in one year. A lot of times it

945
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:07,839
Speaker 2: takes too.

946
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 4: I mean you look at a team like the Rams,

947
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 4: who you know, in that first year they still kind

948
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 4: of they got they struggled in the playoffs, and then

949
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 4: the second year they kind of make it in and

950
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 4: so or when the Chiefs kind of got you know,

951
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 4: shut down last year.

952
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 2: So this my super Bowl pick is Kansas City this year.

953
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 4: I think that like everyone kind of talks about the

954
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 4: Saints and how they should have been in the Super Bowl,

955
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 4: but you could say the same thing about the Chiefs.

956
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 4: And I mean, if I think Patrick Mahomes on this

957
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 4: offense is special, I think if you're if you're betting

958
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 4: on them to win a Super Bowl, you know, these

959
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 4: windows close quicker than we think. And I think this

960
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 4: is their time. I think the fact that they have this,

961
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 4: you know, Tyreek Hills, you know, we don't know, he

962
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 4: tends to get himself into into trouble. We don't know

963
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 4: how long he's gonna end up being on that on

964
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,399
Speaker 4: that roster. You know, Sammy Watkins, we don't know how

965
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 4: long he can he can stay healthy. So I think,

966
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 4: you know, even a guy like Travis Kelce you know,

967
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 4: the tight ends not always the longest shelf life, so

968
00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 4: I think this is their time. I think they're going

969
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 4: to be aggressive. I Patrick Mahomes is special. So the

970
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 4: Chiefs are definitely my Super Bowl pick. I think they

971
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,359
Speaker 4: should have been in. It sucks that we didn't get

972
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,399
Speaker 4: a rematch of a Chief rand. I'm sure that would

973
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 4: have been more exciting than Rams Pats.

974
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rayveond, I like it, and they are one of

975
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,839
Speaker 1: the teams in which I have invested a Super Bowl

976
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 1: ticket corner. Let's kick it to you.

977
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 3: So my pick is the Saints, and you know, I

978
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 3: agree with Raybond earlier. I'm not really hammering their over

979
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,439
Speaker 3: ten and a half. I think they are a little

980
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: bit of a fragile team, but I think the upside

981
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 3: is there, and right now I have them as tied

982
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: for the top team in my model, my power ratings.

983
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 3: And again, you know their draft. They don't have much

984
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,399
Speaker 3: draft capital, so I would wait to bet until after

985
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 3: the draft, and they could potentially drift to ten to

986
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 3: one or eleven to one odds I've seen some places,

987
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 3: so I'm going to hold off until after the draft.

988
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 3: I think that will be the right time to take them.

989
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 3: They're a load on both sides of the ball, and

990
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 3: they've also suffered just brutal playoff losses back to back years,

991
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 3: so you know, I think the perception all of them

992
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 3: would be different if those plays went another way and

993
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 3: it wasn't really their fault. So I just think you

994
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 3: just grew great value on them. At double digit odds,

995
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: I would have them as a slight favorites, honestly, And

996
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 3: the NFC is tough. We've always said, you know, the

997
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 3: NFC is the toughest division, but you know, when you

998
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 3: look at the playoff teams, both divisions are pretty much even.

999
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 3: It's just the AFC has more bad bad teams, So

1000
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 3: I think it's pretty equal that way. And you know,

1001
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: with the AFC the Browns becoming a good playoff team,

1002
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 3: I think the AFC has pretty much evened up. So

1003
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 3: I'm not knocking the Sinks just because they're the NFC.

1004
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 3: So I have them as a slight favorite. I think

1005
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 3: they should be closer to six to one to seven

1006
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 3: to one odds if I have a true odds model

1007
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 3: that I'll create probably in the middle of the summer,

1008
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 3: but right now, just going off field, and I think

1009
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 3: ten to one is a little bit too.

1010
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 1: High, all right. The team I'm going with, and this

1011
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 1: is probably cheating a little bit, I'm going with Cleveland.

1012
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 1: And the reason why I'm going with the Browns is

1013
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 1: because you can't find them at a book out there

1014
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 1: close to plus three thousand, which I think is an

1015
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: egregious price and is sort of like that that's basically

1016
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 1: where they were before the Odell Beckham trade. There's just

1017
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,720
Speaker 1: so much value on them right now at that price,

1018
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: where you know, most other books they are around fourteen

1019
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 1: hundred something like that. But I mean, I think they

1020
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 1: have a legit chance of winning the Super Bowl. And Rayvon,

1021
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 1: I know they weren't one of the eleven teams in

1022
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: your article, but I think there's reason to believe that

1023
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 1: there are extenuating circumstances to take into account. One, obviously,

1024
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 1: the Odell Beckham junior trade to just looking backward at

1025
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 1: the numbers from last season, the fact that they changed

1026
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 1: coaches in the middle of the season, and so I

1027
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: think the numbers that we would see in the second

1028
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 1: half of the season are more representative of what we

1029
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 1: should expect to see this year. So I think it's

1030
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 1: a good situation all the way. Around for them, and

1031
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,479
Speaker 1: I don't know, I just there's something about this team

1032
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 1: like I hate to like sort of buy in to,

1033
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: like I don't know, like the mythology of you know,

1034
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 1: like Baker Mayfield as a quarterback, and like I don't know,

1035
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 1: the remnants of Sashy Brown and like there's just there's

1036
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 1: so much with this team that I like at that price. Again,

1037
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: this is strictly at that price, but at that price,

1038
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 1: I think it's it's too much value to pass up.

1039
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, thirty to one sounds like like a sports book promotion,

1040
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 3: like a like a sign up bonus, like, hey, you

1041
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 3: can get the Browns thirty to one.

1042
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 1: If you depos know it's it's like it's a legit book.

1043
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 1: It's it's legit, and it's it's not it's not quite

1044
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 1: thirty to thirty to one. It's it's twenty nine and

1045
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:42,839
Speaker 1: some change to one. Yeah. So anyway, that's that's where

1046
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,800
Speaker 1: I am. So anyway, final thoughts either of you guys

1047
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 1: on on the Super Bowl super Bowl picks and maybe

1048
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: there are any other teams that have your eye.

1049
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 4: I mean I just want to like, like you don't

1050
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 4: even have to convince Pee. I don't think you should

1051
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 4: have to convince people about the brown or even like

1052
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 4: have to justified. I mean, this is this is what

1053
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 4: they're gonna put on the field on offenses, Like this

1054
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 4: year is like what Patrick Mahomes was going into last year.

1055
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 4: It's like if you were sharp, you kind of sell

1056
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 4: it coming, you know, like this is the like this

1057
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:18,919
Speaker 4: is going to be a jugger not you know, and

1058
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 4: we're going to be talking about this team, you know,

1059
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 4: unless they stuff for like a really unfortunate string of injuries,

1060
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 4: you know, we're gonna be talking about this team is

1061
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 4: one of the top two three offenses in the league.

1062
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,359
Speaker 4: And so yeah, I would I would definitely grab that.

1063
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 4: Now I'm on board, and I think, yeah, I actually

1064
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 4: wrote about it in my in my Odell Beckham Abe

1065
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,800
Speaker 4: diva article about you know, if there is one team

1066
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,400
Speaker 4: that's kind of an outlie, because remember with that model,

1067
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 4: the one caveat is that we only have so many

1068
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 4: Super Bowls, so there's only so many years. It's a

1069
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,399
Speaker 4: small sample of data, so you always have to keep

1070
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 4: that in mind. And I do think that if there's

1071
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 4: going to get an outlier, it's going to be the Browns.

1072
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 4: And and you know, they have a not only do

1073
00:49:57,120 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 4: they have that offense with all the elite the quarterback

1074
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,399
Speaker 4: who put up you know, the big numbers without much

1075
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 4: at receiver or Newly as much as he's gonna have

1076
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 4: this year at receiver, but you have, you know, a

1077
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:09,319
Speaker 4: top five talent at cornerback in Denzel Ward.

1078
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 2: You have a top five talent you know, Pass Rusher

1079
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 2: and Myles Garrett.

1080
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 4: So you have so you have so much talent just

1081
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:17,319
Speaker 4: all around at these key at these key spots that

1082
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 4: I think it's foolish not to just jump on now,

1083
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 4: like regardless if it's if it's a chalky picker right now,

1084
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 4: like sometimes the chalk is is chop.

1085
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 2: For a reason because it's right.

1086
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, So let me just ask you. I mean, the

1087
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 3: hype is going to catch up to them at some point,

1088
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 3: and just hypothetically, what line would you guys begin to

1089
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 3: consider betting the under.

1090
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 1: On the wind total?

1091
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:38,879
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1092
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 1: On the wind total yeah, ten, I mean where it's

1093
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,160
Speaker 1: nine right now, right yeah?

1094
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, but heavy juice on the over, right, I mean

1095
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 3: it's pretty much nine and a half or like just

1096
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 3: a shade under that seems like the markets.

1097
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would consider betting the under at ten.

1098
00:50:58,120 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 2: I might even go a half like I might.

1099
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 4: Can I would consider still betting the over at ten

1100
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 4: if it wasn't like juiced up, you know what I mean, Like, yeahs.

1101
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 3: Over one ten, you would still be considering that.

1102
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it like I think the Browns again,

1103
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 4: I think that number like I don't like. I think

1104
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 4: the Browns defense has the potential to be better than

1105
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 4: a team like the Chiefs defense was last year.

1106
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 2: And I think their offense has the potential to be

1107
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 2: not quite as it actually no, forget that.

1108
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 4: Yes, I think the Browns offense those have the potential

1109
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 4: to be is explosive as the Chiefs because if you

1110
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 4: look at the numbers, Baker Mayfield was putting up those

1111
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 4: numbers without Odell Beckham, you know, and throwing the you know,

1112
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 4: Ratley and Higgins and all these guys.

1113
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 3: So they'll even have cream hunt for the second hilt too.

1114
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 1: So here's the one thing I want. I want to

1115
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 1: push back just a little bit, even though now I'm

1116
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,359
Speaker 1: the one who is like I would take but I mean,

1117
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 1: I think it's we should not expect them to to

1118
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 1: have within their range of outcomes a fifty touchdown season

1119
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: through the air, Like you know what I mean? Like

1120
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: why not.

1121
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 3: Their defense might be good enough, they don't they don't

1122
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 3: have to throw that like.

1123
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 1: Like that is just like that's an like that's an

1124
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: outlier to the outlier type of season. And I think

1125
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,360
Speaker 1: they could still be a very good offense without having

1126
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 1: that type of production, you know what I mean, Like

1127
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 1: on on a per play basis, they can maybe still

1128
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 1: be just as good without needing to score that many points.

1129
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 1: But like I'm I'm still with you in thinking that

1130
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 1: they could be like a top two offense in the league,

1131
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 1: and especially because I think Todd Mounkin is like the

1132
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 1: secret weapon here coming from Tampa Bay. Like last year,

1133
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's offense was so good and people kind of

1134
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 1: didn't appreciate how good it was. Part of it was

1135
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: that they just they couldn't score touchdowns, but they were

1136
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 1: really aggressive and moving the ball down the field. And

1137
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: I think that style of play suits Baker Mayfield perfectly.

1138
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,439
Speaker 1: So him coming in as the offensive coordinator, I think

1139
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 1: really gives some extra juice to this offense that I

1140
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,280
Speaker 1: was already going to be very excited about.

1141
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:07,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I agree with you.

1142
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 4: I mean I don't think like we should go out

1143
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 4: here and like like you never want to project outliers.

1144
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 4: But I mean from the from the perspective of you know,

1145
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 4: when you're betting NFL in general, playing fantasy as well,

1146
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 4: all that stuff.

1147
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 2: You know, it's it's such.

1148
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 4: A hard it's a hard sport to predict, and there's

1149
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 4: always there, like there's never gonna be the same way,

1150
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 4: Like you're never really going to project the team for

1151
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,399
Speaker 4: as few wins as the Dolphins will probably get.

1152
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 2: So even though you hate.

1153
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 4: Betting unders on the lowest win total in the league,

1154
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 4: it's probably still the right play, like predicting, like at

1155
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 4: least identifying potential situations where there could be an outlier

1156
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 4: could have sent you know, it could win your fantasy league.

1157
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 2: It could it could let you hit on the right future.

1158
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, if there is a situation

1159
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 4: where you do feel strongly, I definitely think you do

1160
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 4: want to invest in that, and especially before you know

1161
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 4: it blows up.

1162
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 2: Because the Browns are going to blow up.

1163
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 4: I mean I could see their win total jumping, you

1164
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 4: know to that point that we discussed we might besit

1165
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 4: be under on. So like if you feel the way

1166
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 4: I feel about the Browns, I would get on them. Now,

1167
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 4: this is like this is why I felt about my

1168
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 4: homes last year, Like it's just it's just one of

1169
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 4: those things where it just seems like and less again,

1170
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 4: unless they get injured, I don't see how they're not

1171
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:13,239
Speaker 4: just a juggernaut.

1172
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 1: Yes, the Browns team of destiny, all right. I believe

1173
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: the plan with the upcoming draft is for us to

1174
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: update our fantasy rankings our top one fifty. Maybe we

1175
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 1: will expand that to top two hundred. We will do

1176
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:29,320
Speaker 1: that shortly after the draft. Raybon will start putting together

1177
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 1: I'm assuming some strategy based fantasy pieces. Sean will start

1178
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:36,439
Speaker 1: creating season long projections at some point, and I will

1179
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:40,239
Speaker 1: continue to bet every NFL prop I can find till then.

1180
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 1: That is going to do it. For this episode of

1181
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 1: the Action Network NFL Podcast for Shawn Corner and Chris Raybon,

1182
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,040
Speaker 1: I'm Atthew Friedman, Matt F The Oracle. See Again next

1183
00:54:48,040 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 1: episode