WEBVTT - FINAL NFL Week 11 Bets: Seahawks-Rams, Bucs-Bills, Lions-Eagles, Ravens-Browns, Cowboys-Raiders and more 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.640 Welcome to Sharpers Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We 0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:07.640 are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.719 show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise 0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:13.039 guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman, I am joined 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:16.480 as always buy my co host, my companion, my bff, 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:24.160 professional better Simon Hunter HEADO Solomon, Chad. 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:24.680 Are we doing? 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.920 We got a glorious morning in which we get to 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:34.320 watch football all freaking day. This is the strip down 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.360 in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper's Square. We're gonna 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:42.320 make some picks. We're gonna nail down the final five 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:46.600 that we love based on the latest news and information 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.680 and how lines have been moving. Some quirkiness happen on 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:50.800 out there. Are you ready, brother? 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:52.560 I am ready, all right. 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:58.240 First game up Cincinnati at Pittsburgh five at hard Rock 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.440 Bat five and a half. Everywhere else. I bet into 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.560 it at five and a half. I'm a little surprised 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:09.080 it hasn't moved to five everywhere else because it looks 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:13.080 like the money is coming in on Cincinnati. I still 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:15.399 really like it at five and a half. 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:17.720 Are you with me? 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:19.920 I'm with you. 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:21.520 I'm a little weary of it, but I'm going to 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.080 join you. I just I never understood this number all week. 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.280 Like I always said, the books aren't giving us extra 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:29.240 free points, but feels like in this game they are. 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:32.520 So yeah, it's really a bet on Joe Flacco on 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:35.800 this offense and just how they match up and. 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:36.080 We're both the same boat. 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:39.039 We just we do not trust this defense where where 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.200 they're going to burn us here, but the hope is 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:43.679 Flacco will always have us an opportunity to get this 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:44.280 back door. 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:47.680 So once again this number. I don't know what the 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:48.360 books you're doing. 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:50.920 Here, but they really believe in this Pittsburgh side. I 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:54.160 just can't get to the fact they'll overrated this Pittsburgh defenses. 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.320 Yeah, I mean, we just have not seen any evidence 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.600 from either defense this year that they can stop anybody. 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.760 And this isn't even about Aaron Rodgers against the Chargers 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:07.640 last week, because those are always going to happen and 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:09.920 then there will be bounced back games and if you're 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.040 ever going to get healthy and look right again, it's 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:15.040 against the Cincinnati Bengals defense. To me, I am one 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:19.640 hundred percent betting against the Steelers defense and betting on 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:24.480 T Higgins. Jamaar Chase being able to find ways to 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:30.359 get downfield against a really, really really bad Steelers defensive backfield. 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:34.240 Right now, Cincinnati Bengals plus five and a half if 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:36.080 you can find it, which you should be able to. 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:41.440 We're on the Bengals. Houston at Tennessee. We had said 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:44.000 earlier in the week, get Houston. Right now the line 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:46.720 is five and a half. We had said, get Houston 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:49.720 once it gets under seven. I got a bad number. 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.160 I bet Houston minus six and a half, even though 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.600 I knew Davis Mills was going to be playing. I'm 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:56.919 a little surprised that went further, from six and a 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.000 half to five and a half. Does this give you 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:01.240 pause with the Texans. 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:04.120 I mean, the biggest part gives you pause. I'm sure 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:05.000 it gives you pause as well. 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:09.200 It's been never ending amount of money right now coming 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:13.120 in on this Houston side, and the number has dropped, 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:14.880 like Chad just said, from seven and a half it's 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.200 open to now five and a half, which we always 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:21.160 say is such a key number. So the books are 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:24.600 kind of telling us they think Tennessee has a way 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:26.480 bigger chance to win this game than I gave them 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:27.240 any type. 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:28.920 Of credit for. I just I still don't get how 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:29.639 they're gonna. 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.800 Move and score against this defense, and how they're going 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.520 to stop what he marks and their run game of Houston. 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:37.920 So I always say there's certain games I'm just missing 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:39.960 and I'm overreading, and there's things I'm not looking at 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:41.480 right and this must be one of those games. 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:42.280 But I'm with you, like. 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:46.800 I'm betting Houston taking a position on Houston. Just a 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:49.320 little nervous that there's something here I'm missing because clearly 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:51.920 the books and professionals have taken a stand on this 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:52.800 Tennessee team here. 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:57.000 Yeah, I don't get it either. What about this offense 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:58.600 all of a sudden it makes them think they're going 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:00.880 to be able to move the ball down I just 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:04.000 keep thinking about that Chargers game two weeks ago when 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:09.000 they covered the game. But that's because they got a 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.520 pick six in the first quarter and then a punt 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:16.000 return in the first quarter, and the Chargers had every 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:19.360 chance to still cover that minus nine and a half 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:23.480 and they gave up the back door field goal at 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:27.360 the end. This is a bad offense. It cannot move 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.479 the ball, and it's going against probably the most elite 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:34.040 defense right now, the most complete defense in the NFL 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:36.680 with pascertain out for the Broncos. 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.040 So it's really really hard. 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:43.960 I know it's Davis Mills, but even Davis Mills against 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:48.880 this defense has a better chance to me than cam 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:52.800 Ward against the Texans defense. So yeah, we're still on 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:55.400 the Houston Texans, and I guess we like it even 0:04:55.440 --> 0:05:02.760 more now at five and a half, tricky Simon Tampa 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.760 Bay Buccaneers, who we have been trying to figure out 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:09.279 all week. Why aren't we going all in on the 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:12.719 Tampa Bay Buccaneers? And then in the past twenty four hours, 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:16.560 this line has moved from five and a half to 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:21.080 six And that makes me glad that, like I haven't 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:25.320 bet the Buccaneers. You noted on the show on Thursday, 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.840 Baker Mayfield not really running the ball as much the 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:31.720 past few weeks, and that is to the detriment of 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:34.720 that offense and his playmaking ability. I noted that without 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:37.040 Bucket Irving, they have just been a different team and 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:40.440 it impacts Baker's ability to use play action. Why do 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:42.040 we think this line is moving from five and a 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:43.719 half to six in the past twenty four hours? 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.520 Is this public? Is this the wise guys? What's your take? 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.400 I think the public and the wise guys have been 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:54.120 betting Buffalo for the most part, and you know this 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:56.400 is really about the number. Right at five and a half, 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:59.359 that's definitely a Bill's number. And you've seen the resistance 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.120 of the six. We did our show, I believe it 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.080 was Thursday's show where the number had hit six at 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:05.760 the rand of our showed a couple of books and 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.200 then literally by the time we posted all them, we're 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:09.159 back to five and a half. 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.760 So there has been resistance all week to the six. 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:13.880 But like you said, he woke up today and a 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:15.960 ton of books are showing six something even six and 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:16.840 a half, So. 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:18.960 I don't know. 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:21.800 I guess the proser it's finally coming on the bills, 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:23.400 And like I told you, there's I feel like we 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:25.640 have a lot of missing information right now in Baker 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:27.159 and the Bucks and what kind of. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:30.720 Injury he abstained, and I don't know what to do 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:31.400 with this one. Chad. 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:34.680 It's another game where I was, like you, very confident 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:38.480 Sunday on the Bucks, and every show we've done it's 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:39.200 gotten less. 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:41.839 I ended up not taking a position. 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:43.440 I did take a position all on them, but nin 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:45.080 as big as I thought when I really started diving 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:47.960 to the Baker stuff, and I haven't bet a dollar 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:50.800 more in this game. I honestly thought today i'd flipped 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:53.080 and maybe get to the bills, and I'm still not there. 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:55.120 I still just want to bet on Baker, especially now 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:57.440 that's at six. So maybe not a game we'll play 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:00.200 in the contest where personally I will be on the bucks. 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:04.120 I have not been a dollar on this game, like 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.279 I want to be on the box. Maybe I'll just wait, 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:07.760 you know, I'll wait and see if it gets to 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:09.960 six and a half. But like with the way the 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:13.480 money is moving, it may get there. But I've been 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.320 I've been hesitating all week and I feel like if 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:18.440 there's something holding me back, there's no reason for me 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.400 to pull the trigger because I get antsy. On Sunday 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:25.600 Seattle at the Los Angeles Rams. The Los Angeles Rams 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:29.480 are three point favorites. This was our Brass Balls Better 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:33.320 the Week presented by Hard Reck Bet. We're both on 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:38.400 the Rams here. Here's what's making me nervous, and it's 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:40.280 got nothing to do with anything we talked about on 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:44.200 the field. It's only because Matthew Stafford is just getting 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:45.680 glaized this week, like. 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:47.720 Every single day. 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:51.480 There's something new about how Matthew Stafford is playing at 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.720 an MVP level, how he's getting all the accolades and 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:57.600 attention that he should have been getting for years. 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:01.040 So much media love. I feel like we've been chased. 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:05.960 It could be it's our biggest public player of the week, 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:09.080 but I think you stick to what we love. We 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:11.800 love this matchup for them. This is a great matchup 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:14.960 with US offense. Defensively, It's interesting how Sam Darnall reacts 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.200 to a really tough defensive front, and you know, a 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.160 defense that can be passed on if San Darnold has 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.920 the games he's been having. Yeah, chat, we might get 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:26.160 burned here, but one we're getting a great number, still 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:27.600 getting the three at hard Rock, and a lot of 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:29.440 books have moved to three and a half, and us 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:31.800 personally for our contest it's two and a half. 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:33.959 So I don't know how we can avoid it. It's 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:34.720 great numbers. 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:37.520 We love the matchup, and the only neg thing I 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:39.880 can think of is just feels like it's very public, 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:42.120 Like the public is all over the rams but sort 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:45.600 of the pros. But I really thought the Seattle Seahawks 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:47.840 would be the public darling of the week, but it 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.680 looks like it's gonna be Detroit taking that dog that 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:51.760 the public really loves. 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:52.800 So it's it's. 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:56.880 Interesting watching the line movement. Like we talked, there's a show. 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.400 It was three at hard Rock. Three and a half, 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:02.440 got touched up a bunch of books, including hard Rock, 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:05.040 and they immediately got bet down. So we talk all 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:07.480 the time. There's some really sharp groups that use hard rock. 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:09.880 They clearly are taking a stand at Seahawks at three 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.200 and a half. They feel like that's too much. We 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:14.920 love them at three even better. We get a two 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:16.400 and a half in our contest, So I just I 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:17.400 don't know how we avoid this one. 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:18.640 I really love this number. 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:24.200 All right, Los Angeles Rams, we're on them at three, 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:29.120 Baltimore at Cleveland, this was Chat's choice. At eight and 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.760 a half, it's at eight at hard Rock. Still a 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:34.640 lot of seven and a half's out there, which is 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.920 surprising to me. I thought by now we'd start seeing 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.360 a lot more money coming in on the Ravens and 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.319 pushing this number back up to eight and a half. 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:47.000 I've loved it all week, haven't found a reason not 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:51.839 to love it. It's the right spot. We've talked about 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:55.200 the Browns at home. Just a reminder since the beginning 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:58.040 of last season, where there's been a tremendous split for 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:00.640 the Browns at home and the Browns away twenty points 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.319 at home, twenty points per game at home, thirty points 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:06.040 per game on the road. They give up about thirty 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.720 percent fewer rushing yards at home than they do on 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:11.600 the road, about ten percent fewer passing yards at home 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:13.720 than they do on the road. It's just a different 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:17.480 defense at home. And this is a big number. So 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:21.400 you know, I'm still for better for worse. I'm still 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:24.640 all in on the Cleveland Browns. 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:27.520 Yeah, and Cleveland, though there's a lot of dogs this 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:29.800 week that Cleveland feels like it's the same one where 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:32.880 we see, just like you people, we see a thousand 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:34.640 different ways me and check and easily get burned on 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:38.080 this bet. And of course that's life when you're betting 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:40.040 really bad quarterbacks with bad teams. 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:41.680 But like we say at the time, we're just trying 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:42.360 to play the number. 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:45.120 Situationally, doesn't feel like it's a great spot for the Ravens. 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:47.800 On the flip side, for the Browns, they've been on 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.520 an absolute role of being just terrible on the road. 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:52.920 Now they're finally back home in a great match for them. 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.760 So it's it's really about the number. If this was 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.319 down to six and a half, seven, maybe we could 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.120 talk ourselves out of this, But like Chad said, it's 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:03.200 up to eight and now hard Rock, you know we're 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.080 suckers for anything over seven and a half, especially with 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:09.280 the hook. I wish I could still use the stat 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:11.439 which we had been using all year, which is basically 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:16.000 home dogs greater than seven points through the first nine weeks, 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:20.320 it's like eighty percent clip they hit at But unfortunately 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.880 chatted his week eleven, that stat no longer matters, so. 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:26.960 I can't use it. But the thought process doesn't change here. 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.400 Right, It's an undervalued home dog going against an overrated 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:31.679 team on the road. 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:34.040 Usually these spots really work out for us. Right. 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:38.120 The biggest worry here is who is healthy for Cleveland 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.160 in that running backfield. Who's gonna be carrying the ball here, 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:43.080 because we're not gonna win this on the quarterbacks arm. 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.040 We're gonna need a really staunch run game against a 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.319 Ravens defense as suspect against their run. So love this 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.600 match up for them, lamar I said, I was never 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:53.200 gonna trust their coach. I was gonna wait to what 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:56.000 the B writers said about him. Apparently he was fully 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.120 go in practice, it was just a rest Dagg giving 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.280 him some days off because he took so many hits 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.200 I guess in that Vikings game. So nothing to worry 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:05.040 about if you if you are back in the Ravens 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:06.600 and worried about the more. But on the flip side, 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.920 for us, I still think he's not moving quite like 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:11.920 he was before the injury. Like you didn't going back 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.600 and watching that Vikings game, you never feel like he 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:16.240 fully went full speed because he just does. 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:17.679 Not trust that hamstring. 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.319 So in this type of matchup against Miles Garrett and 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:22.520 that defensive front, I just I love it for us 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:25.240 in so many different ways. So yeah, it's there's an 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:26.760 eight out there, like chets at a hard rock. I 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:28.319 don't won't be scared off if you go get to 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:30.240 seven and a half. I don't see his landen on eight. 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:32.240 I think seven and a half is plenty of points 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:32.920 in this matchup. 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:38.400 All right, we're in on the Cleveland Browns. I love him. 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:39.840 We get funky like that. 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.360 Detroit at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a two and a half 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:48.320 point favorite. This Simon is our Rock and a hard 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:51.480 Place Bet of the Week presented. 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:54.400 By hard Rock Bet Rock. 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:03.040 Look, you just talked Detroit is becoming the public dog 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.160 for the week. It's probably what's been tamping down this 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:08.959 number and keeping it at two and a half at 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:13.480 hard Rock. It's starting to move to three in some 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.720 other places. That tells me that the professionals are finally 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:21.600 coming in full force on Philadelphia here. Lots of reasons 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:26.359 to like the Eagles, lots of reasons to like the Lions. 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.080 I'm going to go with what we've been talking about 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.719 all week. I know people are saying there's stories every 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:38.680 day that there are problems with this Eagles offense. To me, 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.080 they are different than the problems last year. The problems 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.920 last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence. Jalen 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:47.080 Hurst does not seem to be lacking confidence this year. 0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:49.960 Jalen Hurts seems to be playing a very conservative type 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.960 of football where he is doing what he needs to 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:54.559 do to get his team in a position to win. 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:57.640 That puts them in a position to win a close 0:13:57.679 --> 0:13:59.760 game against a very good team by a field goal. 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.000 The flip side, the Lions have. 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:06.680 So many injuries again on defense that it's going to 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.880 be hard for them to execute as they normally would 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:14.120 against still a very very good Eagles offense. 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.479 So we're on the Eagles. 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.600 Yeah, and this should be a gut right spot for 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.040 this Eagles offense. I just talked about their whole secondary 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.680 feels like it's out for Detroit and now you have 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:28.560 backups in one on ones against aj Guy iView as 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:30.360 a top five receiver and Demonte Smith. 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:32.520 The iView is a top ten, top fifteen receivers. 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.640 So if Hurts can't get it right here with the OC, 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.920 this is this is gonna eventually. I'm gonna say it's 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.280 going to start becoming a problem because it's it's November 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:43.880 at this point, Like it doesn't matter in September, October. 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.440 You're working through stuff. It's getting a little late here. 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.800 And I know I gave him the dry air excuse. 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:50.600 Last week in the cold. 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:51.840 Yeah that was crazy. 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:53.040 It's true though. 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.040 Again it's if you played sports, you know it's hard 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:56.920 to grip a ball in dry, cold air like that. 0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:00.240 And I feel the same here where it's like it's 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:03.480 nice weather here in Jersey, it's gonna be football weather. 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:04.840 I don't know if it's not gonna be in the 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:06.920 twenties or in the teams like it was in Green Bay. 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.160 So I don't know if Hert's going to have that excuse. 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:13.280 And the flip side the lines offensively, I just think 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:15.440 that offensive line I still have so many questions about 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:17.960 them and the injuries they've had this season. This is 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:19.880 gonna be a real test for them against this Eagles 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.920 defensive front that was just flying last week? Is that 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:25.360 going to carry throughout the season? Look we've seen with 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.240 Fangs defense. Once they get rolling, once the guys are 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:32.000 comfortable in the defense like last year, they become unstoppable. 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.600 And that's why he is such an at importan piece 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:36.560 that Eagles team, that being a defensive coordinator. 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:38.400 So love this matchup. 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.200 Like we talked the pros, the ones that I can 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.240 talk to there on the Lions, this is to them 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.760 a Lion spot right. All the trends, all the numbers 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.800 point to it. Eagle is super dysfunctional right now. While 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:50.560 on the flip side, it feels the lines are rolling. 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.280 But I still think people are viewing this Lion's team 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.440 as if it is a Ben Johnson run team. Offensively, 0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.040 and then their defense does have healthy guys right now. 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.400 I just they just don't feel like the same team 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.120 that people are building up to be right now Detroit. 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:05.600 So again, no destruction with Detroit. I just don't think 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:07.640 they are a top two, top three team the NFC, 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.160 which this is what people are acting like they are 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:12.160 right now, and they can't believe they're a two and 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:14.600 a half point dog against this Eagles team. So it's 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:17.000 not shocking to see the public love for them so much. 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:19.560 But like Chad said, I am shocked this number hasn't 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.040 it three. Maybe it will by kickoff, but I just 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:24.720 think there's so much public love for the lines. Even 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:26.160 when people hear this, I believe you'll still gob to 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:26.960 get the two and a half. 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.520 By the way, I don't think the Eagles are dysfunctional. 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:32.880 I think this is exactly functional. 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.200 For the Eagles. This is just how they operate. Dallas 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:37.600 at Las Vegas. 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.040 This is a Monday night game. It was three and 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.080 a half. This was Simon says, it's moved down to three. 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.360 I think you were a little nervous about it on Thursday. 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.840 You're probably feeling better about it today. But the question 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:54.880 is when we get to the other side of the break. 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:57.560 Will this be one of our final five? 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:01.080 If you have something you like better, you can throw 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:02.200 it in. I mean, I'm with you. 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:04.399 It's not great having two Mondays in a row in 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:07.359 our contest. It's it's always weird going to sleep and 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:09.520 waking up and having another sweat for the show on 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.040 the Monday. But just about the number, I love the 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:15.640 number here happiest year. It came down because I couldn't understand, 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:18.679 I gain why the public re betting the Cowboys. I 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:22.080 did not know why professionals were acting like two guys 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.480 coming off injury reserved and joining the Cowboys defense was 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:25.879 going to save this team in such. 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:26.440 A big upgrade. 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:28.320 So I was just worried there was something I was missing, 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:31.440 And luckily, like Jeed said, the number has come down. 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.479 Don't buy here though, if you're buying the Raiders, there 0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:37.480 are so many three and a halfs. Don't don't just 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:39.240 take the plus three, get the hook. 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:40.520 Get we need the hook. 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:43.440 With Genus Smith, So chop around five to three and 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.040 a half. But yeah, there's a couple of games this 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:49.280 week that could have gone either way. Luckily I didn't 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.760 give out the wrong one right The Broncos. They're up 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:53.560 to four and a half now, like that was a 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:54.960 game I was wavering on JK. 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:55.960 Dobbins on IR. 0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:59.120 There's some other issues going on there, so it's been moving. Yeah. 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:01.080 And just again I feel like I dodge a bullet 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.240 there going the Raiders over that, because it's like, man, 0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:05.359 if we're sitting here right now in the Raiders for 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.240 plus four and a half, I would have felt like 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:09.800 an idiot given him out on Tuesday. So luckily we've 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:12.239 given out the best of the number. Hopefully people got it. 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:16.040 And matchup wise, we know Dallas is going to get Theirs. 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:19.119 I just I think Chip Kelly, this Raiders offense, this 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.920 is the exact spot you bounce back after extended rest 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:24.639 of that Denvery team against a future Dallas team that 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:28.399 just cannot stop the run, can stay out passes up 0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:30.120