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Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we like our games big

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Speaker 1: and our point spreads small.

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Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in the Chris Westling Podcast. How

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Speaker 2: do you back?

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Speaker 1: With Cynthia Freelan, the best numbers man or woman in

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Speaker 1: the business. We call this man versus machine. Cynthia, we've

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Speaker 1: been picking three games all season long.

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Speaker 2: You've only got seven games left of this entire season.

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Speaker 3: But they're big games.

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Speaker 2: They are oh there.

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Speaker 3: It's not like they're like seven, eh, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: like seven big one.

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Speaker 1: No, And that's why this is the best weekend because

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Speaker 1: you get four of those seven. You've been living with

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Speaker 1: those teams for so long, and you know I alluded

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Speaker 1: to it in the intro. There are a lot of

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Speaker 1: big point spreads this week, which I don't love.

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Speaker 2: You know, I a divisional round week. You want, you

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Speaker 2: want them.

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Speaker 1: To be closer on paper, but you never know what

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get. And that is especially true with our

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Speaker 1: picks lately. I went one and two last week, Cynthia,

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Speaker 1: and you went to in one.

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Speaker 3: So we went ahead. Good job by one, So I knew, Yes.

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Speaker 1: You got the Texans very right and I got the

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Speaker 1: Chargers very wrong. We were both in on the Eagles

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Speaker 1: and got that right, and the Bucks, I would mess

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Speaker 1: us up. If they're playing that game again this week,

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Speaker 1: I would make the same pick, but it ultimately didn't

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Speaker 1: work out so very close. We're both now over five hundred,

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Speaker 1: so you know you can't argue with that for the season.

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Speaker 1: But I'm annoyed because picking literally every single game, which

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Speaker 1: they keep track of on Game Deview, I'm twenty over

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Speaker 1: picking every game. I'm somehow better off there. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: change the setup this week. Every week we picked exactly

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Speaker 1: three games. We're still gonna do that, but since there's

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Speaker 1: only four, we're gonna go through all four and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna each have one stay away, so we each pick

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Speaker 1: one stay Away.

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Speaker 2: Let's start.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna just go in chronological order, so let's start

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Speaker 1: with a Saturday afternoon game.

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Speaker 2: It's Texans Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: As we're recording this, the Chiefs are favored by eight

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: Which way are you leaning Chiefs?

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Speaker 3: With the Chiefs to win but Texans with the points? Okay,

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Speaker 3: that's what I think happens in this one. I think

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Speaker 3: it's like a nice just like before when they played

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Speaker 3: I don't know, not that long ago it was a

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Speaker 3: seven point win. I think that's about right where it

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Speaker 3: should be. I think it was twenty six to nineteen

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Speaker 3: last time that they played. I think that's I think

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Speaker 3: I have twenty twenty seven something like that. So I

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Speaker 3: think it's a Chiefs win. They're so healthy, that's my

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Speaker 3: number one thing with this team, Like no one's on

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Speaker 3: the injury report compared to other teams of the Lions,

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Speaker 3: I'm wearing the shirt. Yeah, so that drives a win

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Speaker 3: for me.

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't know what to think about the

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Speaker 1: rest versus the rust. This is kind of unprecedented, the

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Speaker 1: twenty five twenty four days thing, and yet ultimately I

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Speaker 1: think that's an advantage for the Chiefs, But I do

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Speaker 1: think it's an advantage of the Texans, who are heavy

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Speaker 1: underdogs here. Just played in Arrowhead and I think it

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Speaker 1: was one of the Chiefs' best offensive performances of the year.

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Speaker 1: And yet until that tanked out injury, they were going

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Speaker 1: toe to toe, and I think they have to have

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Speaker 1: some confidence.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I'm going Texans plus eight and a half for this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm even as the week is going on.

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Speaker 3: You're talking yourself into the Texans.

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Speaker 2: I am really talking myself? Oh, I like it.

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Speaker 1: I know they haven't lost the arrowhead since Christmas of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, and yet I do think the Texans

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Speaker 1: are the best defense in the AFC. And it's versus

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Speaker 1: an offense that was playing its best late in the

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Speaker 1: season and figured some things out, but overall struggled, and

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Speaker 1: so I think that's a lower scoring game. I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: that the Texans offense can join the party. We've had

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Speaker 1: problems with them all year and I think CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 1: is capable of doing that. That that I think the

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Speaker 1: monkey'll be a little off their back. They'll feel good

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Speaker 1: they got a playoff win. They're coming into it. They've

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Speaker 1: been you know, they're rested from resting Week eighteen, but

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Speaker 1: then they're coming in.

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Speaker 2: I don't know I'm convincing. I like it.

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Speaker 3: Whatever, talk yourself into it. I like it.

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Speaker 2: And you did.

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Speaker 3: You didn't even bring Upkamori and Derek Singley Junior has

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Speaker 3: number one and number two like in terms of when

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Speaker 3: they've been targeted and tight coverage. Best corners in the league.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and the Chiefs have been great going over the

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Speaker 1: middle of the field, and you could do that with

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Speaker 1: with Kelsey certainly, and Noah great. But the Texans have

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Speaker 1: been very good defending those plays even though they're short

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Speaker 1: a few players Jillen Petrie, justin Reid, you know, but

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Speaker 1: they've they've played well despite those injuries. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go to Lions and Commanders. All start off here because

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Speaker 1: I know you know you're feeling a certain way about

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Speaker 1: this team.

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Speaker 2: You know, game just a little nervous.

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Speaker 1: If there's ever a playoff, every playoff game you should

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Speaker 1: be nervous for.

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Speaker 2: It's a Divisional round game.

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Speaker 1: Of course, it's going to be hard, but there's a

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Speaker 1: reason the Lions are favored by eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: This is my favorite pick of the entire week, is

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Speaker 1: the Lions covering that big spread. Here's why. When they

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Speaker 1: play the Commander's defense, it's the biggest mismatch on Divisional

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Speaker 1: round weekend. Last week, I saw Baker Mayfield with a

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Speaker 1: lot of time. I trust Jared Goff even more with

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Speaker 1: a lot of time. I think that offensive line give

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Speaker 1: some time. But even more important, this Commander's team is

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Speaker 1: the worst team according to Next Gen stats against runs

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Speaker 1: under center in terms of success rate, in terms of

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Speaker 1: giving up explosive runs. They're second worst. What are the

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Speaker 1: Lions major in? That's what they major in. It's a

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Speaker 1: light defense too. I often see Jeremy Chin or Mike Sandristo,

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Speaker 1: they're in the box as kind of a third linebacker.

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Speaker 1: And I just think the Lions are too strong, too

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Speaker 1: good offensively not to put up thirty five points in

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Speaker 1: this game. And I think that's enough to cover the

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Speaker 1: spread that they score between thirty five and forty. Jayden

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Speaker 1: has a fine game, and it's somewhere like thirty eight

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Speaker 1: to twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Let's go Lions.

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Speaker 3: Let's just go through it. I mean, I actually have

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Speaker 3: a closer game. It is my most confident on the

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Speaker 3: week in terms of who wins, which is not a

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Speaker 3: great place to be for me. Mentally, I like a hedge.

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Speaker 3: I'm a banker. I come from not wanting to lose.

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Speaker 3: Like this is listen, it's this is.

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Speaker 2: You're not a banker.

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Speaker 3: You're here, I know you are. I'm a refou banker.

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Speaker 2: Broadcast eh, who's been getting the.

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Speaker 3: Questionable But but ultimately, I mean, look, I agree with

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Speaker 3: you on all of those points. The under center runs

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Speaker 3: also the O line for to me, O lines are

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Speaker 3: really really predictive in the postseason, even more so than

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Speaker 3: the regular season. And I just think that the Lion's

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Speaker 3: O line, which is knock on wood, like one of

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Speaker 3: the areas where they're not as banged up. Taylor Decker

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Speaker 3: should play not as banged up, and I'm worried about

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Speaker 3: Kevin Zeitler not playing. I'm concerned about that. However, in

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Speaker 3: this matchup, this is not the heaviest pressure team in

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Speaker 3: the Commanders. They have been bringing some pressure, but not

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Speaker 3: like some of these other teams in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, calm down about it, feel.

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Speaker 3: Good, people like act like you've been there before, like

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Speaker 3: we were here last year. But other than that, never okay,

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Speaker 3: Mars never been here before.

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Speaker 1: Marshaun Lattimore is not really getting it done so far

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Speaker 1: for the Commanders, So I think you have some I

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Speaker 1: just like.

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Speaker 3: That I'm around Saint Brown was like Diami Brown was

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Speaker 3: drafted ahead of me, and I'm ooh, I like that

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Speaker 3: locker room motivation.

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Speaker 1: That's another fun one. And I just think I talked

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Speaker 1: about it a little in the previous show. There are two

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Speaker 1: teams at different points in their builds. This is a

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Speaker 1: really mature Lions team, and I feel like the Commanders

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Speaker 1: kind of won their Super Bowl last season.

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Speaker 2: Now, if you.

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Speaker 1: Told me there's four minutes left in the game and

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Speaker 1: the Lions are only up six and Jayden Daniels have

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Speaker 1: the ball at that point, it all goes out.

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Speaker 2: The window and I'm not only are they not going

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Speaker 2: to cover it? To me, I'm not feeling.

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Speaker 1: Great because that that young man is magical and he

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Speaker 1: has something really special. But you mentioned like pass rush.

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Speaker 1: You know that the Lions, I think they can maybe

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Speaker 1: get home a little bit. Some weaknesses on that Washington

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Speaker 1: O Lion at left tackle Brandon Coleman. I've seen in

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Speaker 1: Week eighteen the Cowboys kind of attacked Nick Alley Gretty

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Speaker 1: their guard. So some spots where maybe the Lions can

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Speaker 1: blitz and get home like they did against the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: Let's move on to the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: Yes, let's move on in the Rams game.

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Speaker 1: I think the two Sunday games are better ultimately on paper.

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Speaker 1: Surprising what a big line this was when I first

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Speaker 1: saw it early in the week. It's actually come down slightly,

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Speaker 1: but not much. It's Eagles minus six right now over

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Speaker 1: the Rams. Which way are you leaning? And to review,

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Speaker 1: neither of us did a stay away in the first

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Speaker 1: two games, that's right, and both of us went Texans

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Speaker 1: and went why this is.

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Speaker 3: My stay away okay from in terms of the I mean,

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Speaker 3: I know the next game is like the better one.

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Speaker 3: It's mostly a pick'em, but that means that whoever I

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Speaker 3: picked a win than is kind of in the right.

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Speaker 2: Ok Right.

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Speaker 3: So anyways, so this is my stay away from the line,

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Speaker 3: not from the winner. I think the Eagles win this one,

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Speaker 3: but I wouldn't be I would be equally unsurprised if

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Speaker 3: it was by one point or if it was by ten.

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Speaker 3: You know, we saw them. They had a pretty massive

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Speaker 3: win when they were out here in Los Angeles. But

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Speaker 3: I still think there's something special about getting all the

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Speaker 3: pieces on this Rams offense together. There's some stat you know,

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Speaker 3: since the beginning of last season, like a third of

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Speaker 3: the snaps is a total amount that they've played together.

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Speaker 3: They being Matthew, Stafford, Kyra and Williams, Cooper Cup and

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Speaker 3: of course Puka Nukua. So there, I think there's something there.

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Speaker 3: But it's going to be cold, it's going to be

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Speaker 3: I mean it's outside, obviously, it's going to be angry.

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Speaker 3: We know Philadelphia is not the you go in It's

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Speaker 3: not the warm and friendly Sean Fines. It's an angry situation.

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Speaker 3: And I think that the secondary of the Rams is more, way, way,

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Speaker 3: way more vulnerable than we saw from Minnesota. Minnesota. There's

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Speaker 3: no time for Sam Darnold to.

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Speaker 1: Pass right when you have one quarterback that you trust

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Speaker 1: a lot more than the other. And I trust Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford more in this game than Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: It's tough to give away six points.

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Speaker 1: All the points you make are are really strong in

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Speaker 1: terms of you want to stay away and you don't

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Speaker 1: know how it's gonna turn out. And yet when I

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Speaker 1: thought about you got to pick three out of four

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Speaker 1: games here, yep, I actually do feel pretty good about

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Speaker 1: the Eagles good. I mean my model has seven points,

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Speaker 1: so sixes is a lot, and I don't love doing that,

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Speaker 1: but I am taking the Eagles to cover the six.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I got some grief from RAMS fans after our previous

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Speaker 1: Your daughter, she, I mean, she does not listen to

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Speaker 1: our previous show. She is a I'm gonna watch the

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Speaker 1: three hours of the game and be intense and be

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Speaker 1: clapping really loud, and then she's gonna unplug from all

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Speaker 1: coverage until the next game.

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Speaker 3: Is that's smart. That's a great way to she's so healthy,

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Speaker 3: great great way to healthy. Good job.

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Speaker 1: But some Rams fans weren't happy because we had on

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Speaker 1: bo Wolf who covers the Eagles, and it was an

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Speaker 1: Eagles leaning pod. And look, we cover the Rams as

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Speaker 1: much as any team around him and I especially in

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Speaker 1: this studio, and I felt like we covered them a

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Speaker 1: lot after the Monday night game. And ultimately, I do

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Speaker 1: think the Eagles are the more fascinating team here because

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Speaker 1: they've spent years building a roster this good, and they

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Speaker 1: could get upset. The Rams have that sort of magic.

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Speaker 1: They have the coach, they have the quarterback. It could happen.

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Speaker 1: But when I look at this matchup, I do think

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Speaker 1: the first meeting is really instructive. My number one question

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Speaker 1: is can these players hold up on a cold day

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Speaker 1: against this Eagle's O line? Just run after run after

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Speaker 1: run including line.

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Speaker 3: So I mean that's why I think Eagles win. But

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Speaker 3: like I said, I think the score can be all

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Speaker 3: over the place.

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Speaker 2: I tend to agree.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a high variance game and Rams fans

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Speaker 1: will be in my mention getting after me if they

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Speaker 1: do it.

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Speaker 2: But these are the players I'm thinking about.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the cornerbacks, where we'll see if Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 1: can actually deliver the ball. But that's a mismatch on

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Speaker 1: the outside for DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, who's back at

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Speaker 1: practice on Thursday. Dallascott at mispractice, but it was with

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Speaker 1: an illness, which generally you would think he'll be okay

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Speaker 1: by Sunday.

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Speaker 3: I actually think if you're even a little ill, you

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Speaker 3: should get the heck out of right. Stop infecting people.

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Speaker 3: People at our place should.

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Speaker 2: Do that too.

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Speaker 1: Locker room not the situation. You do not want to

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Speaker 1: entirely sick. No, but the Rams are going all the way.

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Speaker 1: They haven't been as great in general in the Stafford era.

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Speaker 3: Outside Arizona's more east of Los Angeles.

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Speaker 1: Wow, that's an indoor situation, and it's the defense. It's

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Speaker 1: these players. Christian rose Boom, Yep, Brayden Fisk much better

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Speaker 1: stopping the pass. Sometimes you can run on him a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Byron Young not not the biggest guy on

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Speaker 1: the edge.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Neville Gallimore is a guy who's playing a lot for them.

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Speaker 1: I think about that matchup and the Eagles just leaning

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Speaker 1: on them, and I can't get that game. I believe

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Speaker 1: it was Week twelve out on my head, so I

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Speaker 1: think offensively, that's the big mismatch Eagles run game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. On the other side, we'll see, we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Can Stafford still beat a great defense in the playoffs?

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Speaker 1: I think it's possible. But this is a great defense.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the last game here, this is.

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Speaker 3: It should be stay away, but I thought it'd be

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Speaker 3: more fun to not to pick it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm I'm just gonna explain why I'm staying away.

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Speaker 1: I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl before

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Speaker 1: the season. At this point, it just feels ridiculous to

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Speaker 1: go off that. That's cowardly. You just stay with it.

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Speaker 1: And yet I do feel like the Ravens' very best

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Speaker 1: game is the best game in the NFL. Now, can

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Speaker 1: they play their best game four straight weeks? No, that's

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Speaker 1: not how football works normally. I think the Bills are

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Speaker 1: their baseline is a little higher. Maybe there's more variance

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Speaker 1: with the Ravens. Some of Lamar's playoff showings do affect

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Speaker 1: me a little bit, and so like my head leans

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Speaker 1: slightly Ravens. But I think the Bills having the home

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Speaker 1: game is enough for me that I feel good about

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Speaker 1: sticking with my preseason pick, and I do pick the Bills.

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Speaker 1: But ultimately, I just am saying to fans out there

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Speaker 1: who are thinking whether I bet this game or not,

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: This is as good as football gets. Yeah, And if

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Speaker 2: you're like me.

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Speaker 3: If you need something to make this more exciting.

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Speaker 1: Right, if you're like me and you just do on

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Speaker 1: the stress and you enjoy it way more when there's

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Speaker 1: sort of nothing on the line, just enjoy this game.

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Speaker 2: So that's what I'm gonna do. I'm staying away.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean look for this game for me.

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Speaker 3: The fact that the Bills are home underdogs, what I

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Speaker 3: don't understand that I agree.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bills should be about minus one and

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Speaker 1: a half probably just flip it right. I didn't even

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Speaker 1: mention the Ravens are favored by one half on the road.

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Speaker 3: So that's why I'm more comfortable. That's why I faded

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Speaker 3: the other game, because I don't know. I figured you

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Speaker 3: were going to fade this last one since we both

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Speaker 3: didn't take any game on Saturday. So whatever, I just

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Speaker 3: want to be a little different and more fun. But anyways,

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Speaker 3: the thing that's interesting for me in this one is

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Speaker 3: a Flowers availability. So far, as of recording this episode,

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Speaker 3: he has not been seen in the open portion of practice.

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Speaker 3: I love that, like very specific open whatever, but he

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Speaker 3: hasn't been seen. And the thing about Zay Flowers and

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Speaker 3: I'm going to say this, let's see if I let's say,

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Speaker 3: if I can say this as nice as possible to

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Speaker 3: B C Alump just like me. So he doesn't run

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Speaker 3: the most precise routes, and sometimes chaos is good like

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Speaker 3: in poker. Yeah, never want to be predictable. You know,

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Speaker 3: you don't want people to know your rules. You don't

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Speaker 3: want you people to know your well good news. I

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Speaker 3: don't even think Zay Flowers knows his predictability right, So

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Speaker 3: that actually against this past defense I think is an advantage.

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Speaker 3: And if he's not playing, Rashad Bateman is a much

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Speaker 3: more precise route runner. Now Christian Benford is very good

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Speaker 3: in that secondary, but I have some questions about the

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Speaker 3: rest of the secondary for the bills. And because of

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Speaker 3: those questions, you can get gut. However, if you're gonna

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Speaker 3: start following rules, like you know, running a precise route

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Speaker 3: and being great that heck, they can figure it out.

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Speaker 3: They can jump your route. They can learn a little

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Speaker 3: bit more, you have a better chance of it. But

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Speaker 3: if you're zig zagging all over the hey, you know

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Speaker 3: the that is interesting in my opinion. And the other

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Speaker 3: thing that I like. Your girl loves Jumbo and I

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Speaker 3: love how the Bills use Jumbo more than anyone else,

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Speaker 3: meaning they bring in the extra offensive lineman number seventy.

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Speaker 3: Alec Anderson's his name. If you want to become friends

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Speaker 3: with him on Facebook, I'm sure or whatever. I'm sure

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Speaker 3: he's not on you know, ex, Blue Sky or whatever,

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Speaker 3: because sometimes those guys don't have a ton of followers.

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Speaker 3: He probably could be your friend on those things. But anyways,

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Speaker 3: I think it's fun to watch them play in those

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Speaker 3: heavy personnel formations. And this is where Josh Allen has

358
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Speaker 3: to be the MVP because Lamar Jackson could rely on

359
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Speaker 3: Derek Henry. I remember that game thirty five to ten.

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Speaker 3: We all remember Derek Henry ran roughshot over them. We

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Speaker 3: got it. They're not going to give him light boxes

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Speaker 3: or even neutral boxes as often in this one. They

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Speaker 3: gave it to three times in that game. Why, I

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Speaker 3: don't know. They're gonna go heavier to stop Derek Henry

365
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Speaker 3: and force Lamar Jackson to pass on them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the biggest advantage for the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Got into it with Brian Baldinger your your friend love

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Speaker 1: Baldy on our preview show, and I do think the

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Speaker 1: size in the consistency with which they can run the

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Speaker 1: ball is the biggest problem for Buffalo, who's a little

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Speaker 1: bit smaller of a defense.

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Speaker 2: I yeah, I will look into becoming friends.

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Speaker 3: You should with Alec if anyone could be you.

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Speaker 1: He seems kind of nasty though he's won. If when

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Speaker 1: you flip like he's playing past the whistle. You know

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Speaker 1: how they say, played to the whistle, He's playing a

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Speaker 1: little past the whistle.

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Speaker 3: That's at Baldy.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's what you want in your sixth offensive lineman.

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Speaker 3: That's kind of how I act too. Yes, you know

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Speaker 3: you do, I asked, I was. I got to see

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Speaker 3: one of my friends, Matthias q Nuka. He was in

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Speaker 3: town last week. Colleen and I were hung out with it,

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Speaker 3: which was very funny because the size discrepancy was hysterical. Anyways,

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Speaker 3: I got Matthias to agree that that I'm giving big,

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Speaker 3: mean defensive back energy. I'm undersized. We got it mean

387
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Speaker 3: defensive back. Yes, I'm playing through the whistle. Man. I'm

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Speaker 3: Kirby Joseph, I'm Brian Branch let's go.

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Speaker 2: I'm more Chauncey Gardner Johnson.

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Speaker 3: Oh, you are definitely little crap.

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Speaker 1: Talkuthy annoying, maybe inconsistent too, But no, no.

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Speaker 3: No, his teammates love him. The other team doesn't like

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Speaker 3: him so much. But his teammates love him.

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Speaker 2: And it is tricky.

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Speaker 1: And we're taping this Thursday afternoon and Zay Flowers hasn't practice.

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Speaker 1: You're right, that's a huge I mean, just think about

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Speaker 1: last year's AFC Championship game if he had just held

398
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,399
Speaker 1: on to the ball there. His big plays were the

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Speaker 1: reason that they were coming back in that game. And

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Speaker 1: he does something that the rest of the team just

401
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Speaker 1: can't do. I love that, that chaos theory that you're bringing.

402
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,320
Speaker 1: He's a little bit of like the learn how to play.

403
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,199
Speaker 1: He's like the basic guy at the poker table that

404
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 1: actually messes with the experts and.

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Speaker 3: Everyone gets really mad because he doesn't follow the rules.

406
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Speaker 3: You can't do that.

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Speaker 1: So look, you are taking the bills. I'm on your

408
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,399
Speaker 1: side with that one too. I have the Bills winning,

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Speaker 1: but I.

410
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Speaker 3: Am everything this week unless you take the Texans.

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Speaker 1: We'll see We'll see the Rams Eagles. I have the

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Speaker 1: Eagles covering the six points. You're staying away. Oh, you

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Speaker 1: basically agree with me.

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Speaker 2: There, I agree with you.

415
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Speaker 3: I just to be different somewhere.

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Speaker 1: We're both taking the Lions and Texans chief We're probably

417
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Speaker 1: just stepping into it both taking the Texans on the

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Speaker 1: Divisional round weekend against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: What could go wrong? Let's get out of here.

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Speaker 1: We only have two more of these the rest of

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Speaker 1: the season, but we will be back.

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Speaker 3: What are you gonna do with all your extra time?

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but we don't have it yet because

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Speaker 1: we're actually going to be back on Saturday night recapping

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Speaker 1: h those two Divisional Round games. Jordan Rodrigue of the

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00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: Athletic will be joining me for that show.

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Speaker 2: And yes, when we're playing games.

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Speaker 1: That are gonna be remembered like for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the time, when Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are like

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Speaker 1: creating six unfortunate months of legacy talk, you know football

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Speaker 1: is back back Saturday