WEBVTT - Week 10 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks

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<v Speaker 1>This episode is brought to you by Love Hurts. Keith

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<v Speaker 1>week Kwan has had quite a career, from childhood roles

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<v Speaker 1>in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The

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<v Speaker 1>Goonies to a recent Academy Award win for Everything Everywhere,

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<v Speaker 1>All at Once. But now Keith finally stars as a

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<v Speaker 1>leading man in the film Love Hurts. Love Hurts is

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<v Speaker 1>the perfect date night movie with its mix of over

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<v Speaker 1>the top action comedy and a ton of heart. Love

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<v Speaker 1>Hurts Only at theaters February seventh.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome in episode ninety four, What's Right with Nick Wright,

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<v Speaker 2>our Week ten NFL gambling show, and a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>things going on right now. One is this is going

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<v Speaker 2>to be at this show today is going to be

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<v Speaker 2>a test of Demanse's ability to lock in and focus,

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<v Speaker 2>because he is livid right now Cuz after I gave

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<v Speaker 2>him a hard time a few weeks ago about not

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<v Speaker 2>having his AirPods, he double checked to make sure he

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<v Speaker 2>had them on the ride to the studio, and now

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<v Speaker 2>fears he left them in the ride to the studio.

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<v Speaker 2>And there is nothing in the world that frustrates my

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<v Speaker 2>son more than that type of mistake. He is right

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<v Speaker 2>now on a if he walked out of this studio

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<v Speaker 2>and got hit by a car, he would not be

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<v Speaker 2>as frustrated as he is this very moment. And then

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<v Speaker 2>you add to it the layer of and then we'll

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the good things going on. You add to

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<v Speaker 2>the layer of Demonse learned a new gambling lesson last week,

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<v Speaker 2>which it didn't end up even costing him his bets

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<v Speaker 2>because after hitting a five team parlay two weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 2>last week flew a little too close to the sun.

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<v Speaker 2>Tried some six and seven teamers didn't work, But the

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<v Speaker 2>first leg to lose of any of those was the Oh,

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<v Speaker 2>let me just throw row the Bill's money line on there.

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<v Speaker 2>If this thing's gonna pay ten dollars to win three ten,

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<v Speaker 2>why not make it ten to win three forty free money.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not like the Bills can lose the old huge

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<v Speaker 2>favorite add them on the money line. We ca call

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<v Speaker 2>that the cousin sALS special. It's what my cousin Sala

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<v Speaker 2>is known for. So we dealt with that gambling loss.

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<v Speaker 2>He's now figuring out it does this uber driver have

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<v Speaker 2>my AirPods or is it somewhere in this here. So

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<v Speaker 2>there's a lot going on so you know the yin

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<v Speaker 2>and the yang, if you will, A little rough ninety

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<v Speaker 2>six hours for the wonderful demons. I, on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 2>am flying higher than a kite. Last week show the

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<v Speaker 2>record three one and one after we were in the

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<v Speaker 2>depths back to back winning weeks, we are now six

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<v Speaker 2>three and one the last two weeks. Really should be

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<v Speaker 2>seven to in one the last two weeks, but I

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<v Speaker 2>got talked out of a good Bengals pick and instead

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<v Speaker 2>got a bad Vikings pick, or the other way around.

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<v Speaker 2>Whatever it was two weeks ago. Last week, the Colts

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<v Speaker 2>plus five and a half against the Patriots. You know

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<v Speaker 2>what I'm gonna say, I wasn't on the wrong side

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<v Speaker 2>of that. Let me now. They got annihilated and then

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<v Speaker 2>they fired their coach and the iied Jeff Saturday, and

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<v Speaker 2>the whole thing's an embarrassment. My argument there was, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't see how the Patriots can crack seventeen points. The

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<v Speaker 2>Patriots kicked four field goals and scored two touchdowns. Here's

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<v Speaker 2>how they scored their touchdowns, a pick six and a

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<v Speaker 2>blocked punt that was returned to the two yard line.

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<v Speaker 2>Their offense did nothing. Atlanta plus three against the Chargers.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a push that it was stolen from me, the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that the Chargers pushed that when Atlanta had the

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<v Speaker 2>ball running up field after a Charger fumbled and then

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<v Speaker 2>the guy just fundled. Yeah, the ball out of his

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<v Speaker 2>own hands. Seattle plus two, never a doubt. Baltimore minus

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half, Never a doubt. And for the

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<v Speaker 2>second straight week, our lock of the week on national

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<v Speaker 2>television comes down to the wire and we cover by

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<v Speaker 2>a half point. Oh my goodness, Green Bay plus ten

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<v Speaker 2>and a half, followed by Tampa minus two and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're feeling great. We go four and one this week,

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<v Speaker 2>and we are above five hundred for the season, but

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<v Speaker 2>we would be at five hundred by and let you

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<v Speaker 2>guys make me switch my pick a week ago. But it

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't matter. We are feeling great. We love this slate,

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<v Speaker 2>love the slate, and as promised, we're hitting our stride

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<v Speaker 2>for the stretch run of the year. The goal is

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<v Speaker 2>on the season to be at fifty eight percent. That

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<v Speaker 2>would be highly profitable, and then the goal is in

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<v Speaker 2>the playoffs to be great, So to be at fifty

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<v Speaker 2>eight percent. Let me do some very quick math here

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<v Speaker 2>before we get to today's picks. So we're doing five

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<v Speaker 2>a week. Five times eighteen is ninety, so zero point

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<v Speaker 2>five eight times ninety we would need fifty two wins.

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<v Speaker 2>We would need to go fifty two and thirty eight

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<v Speaker 2>on the season. We are right now twenty one, twenty

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<v Speaker 2>three and one on the season, so we've got to go.

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<v Speaker 2>It's gonna be hard. We gotta go essentially thirty. Oh boy,

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<v Speaker 2>that's good, we gotta go. Let's just try to go

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<v Speaker 2>thirty and fifteen, thirty and fifteen the rest of the way.

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<v Speaker 2>Six has sixty seven percent. We can do it four

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<v Speaker 2>and one weeks, three and two weeks, maybe mix in

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<v Speaker 2>a five and oh week. I feel this week right

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<v Speaker 2>here doesn't feel like a five and oh week, but

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<v Speaker 2>it sure as hell feels like a four and one week.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's show this. Let's show our first pick. Tennessee minus

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half at home against Denver. Now, there

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<v Speaker 2>is some questions about Ryan Tannahill's health. We are recording

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<v Speaker 2>this on Thursday. We don't yet have the Thursday injury report. However,

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<v Speaker 2>here is what is going into my pick here. Ryan

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<v Speaker 2>Tannehill briefly kind of warmed up against the Chiefs game

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<v Speaker 2>against the Chiefs in that game. That's a good sign.

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<v Speaker 2>He was not a did not participate in practice. He

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<v Speaker 2>was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>trending in the right direction. So if Tannehill, I believe

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<v Speaker 2>is likely to play, even if it's limited, what on

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<v Speaker 2>earth would make anyone think the Titans should not be

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<v Speaker 2>at least four point favorites against Denver. Denver's been awful.

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<v Speaker 2>I know they're coming off a win in London and

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<v Speaker 2>then they got the buye. I get that. Tennessee. On

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<v Speaker 2>the other hand, Derrick Henry has been unstoppable. The biggest

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<v Speaker 2>mistake they made in that Chiefs game was not giving

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<v Speaker 2>him the ball. More Malik Willis will either have at

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<v Speaker 2>least some experience if he is starting, and they'll have

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<v Speaker 2>more experience figuring out what he can and can't do,

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<v Speaker 2>or more likely Ryan Tannehills there more importantly, you know

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<v Speaker 2>exactly what Denver is going to try to do offensively,

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<v Speaker 2>which is nothing, and then take some deep shots with Russ.

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<v Speaker 2>That Titans defense, what did it show against the Chiefs?

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<v Speaker 2>Gave up a ton of yards, but was really good

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<v Speaker 2>against the Chiefs. And if not for Patrick Mahomes and

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<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs got no huge plays and not for Patrick

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<v Speaker 2>Mahomes with his legs, the Chiefs lose that game. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>Russell Wilson won't run. Biggest plays of the game third

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<v Speaker 2>and seventeen. Mahomes scrambled third and nine at near the

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<v Speaker 2>in the red zone. Mahomes scrambled for a touchdown, two

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<v Speaker 2>point conversion. Mahomes scrambled for that. Russ is not doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>The Titans are a good team. They're at home. Denver's

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<v Speaker 2>a bad team. They're on the road. Were laying less

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<v Speaker 2>than a field goal. We love Tennessee minus two and

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<v Speaker 2>a half.

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<v Speaker 3>I think you and other people might be a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit too high on them because of how they held

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<v Speaker 3>up against the Chiefs.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's not just the Chiefs. It's that the previous

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<v Speaker 2>week against the Texans with no quarterback, with Malik Willis

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<v Speaker 2>making his first career start, they were up seventeen to three.

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<v Speaker 2>I know you're like, oh, that's the Texans. The Broncos

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<v Speaker 2>are not markedly better than the Texans the previous to

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<v Speaker 2>They're just not previous to that. They beat Indy by

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<v Speaker 2>two scores, they beat Washington, they beat Indy again, they

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<v Speaker 2>beat Vegas, now, they're not winning these games by big margins.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think they're a dominant team. And at three

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<v Speaker 2>and a half, I might have pause. Tennessee minus two

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<v Speaker 2>and a half. Tennessee wins by a field goal. We

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<v Speaker 2>love it. Next, right, Chicago minus two and a half

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<v Speaker 2>against Detroit. Okay, so let's talk about the line for

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<v Speaker 2>a moment, because right now we feel like they're a

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<v Speaker 2>touch over valued. Here's why we feel like they're a

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<v Speaker 2>touch overvalued. And is this the game? I hope we

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<v Speaker 2>have the graphics for it that I was supposed to

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<v Speaker 2>go to Chicago. There is Chicago minus two and a

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<v Speaker 2>half against Detroit. Detroit going into that Packer game, was

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<v Speaker 2>on pace to be the worst defense in the history

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<v Speaker 2>of the NFL. Points wise, give up more points than

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<v Speaker 2>any team ever in the history of the NFL. In

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<v Speaker 2>that Packer game, it's like, oh, the defense turned a corner,

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<v Speaker 2>did it? Aaron Rodgers at the one yard line through

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<v Speaker 2>the ball into a defensive lineman's helmet. Aaron Rodgers was

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<v Speaker 2>then again at the one yard line through an interception

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<v Speaker 2>on a pass to a left tackle. Aaron Rodgers was

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<v Speaker 2>then again inside the twenty five through an interception at

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<v Speaker 2>the goal line once again. They then at the end

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<v Speaker 2>of the game drove into the red zone and Rodgers

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<v Speaker 2>missed the pass. So while the Packers were not able

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<v Speaker 2>to do anything offensively from a points per ppecse, they

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<v Speaker 2>were able to move the football. And then you have Chicago.

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<v Speaker 2>Justin Fields now that he is being allowed to run,

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<v Speaker 2>is one of the most dynamic, threatening players in the

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<v Speaker 2>entire league. Now he has weaknesses and the Bears defense

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<v Speaker 2>they trade away Roquan Smith, they trade away, oh, the

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<v Speaker 2>Robert Quinn. So there are some issues with them defensively.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know that Detroit can take advantage of those

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<v Speaker 2>issues right now that offense has come back down to

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<v Speaker 2>earth Detroit. They You have two teams that feel very

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<v Speaker 2>differently about their losses last week. Chicago feels great about

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<v Speaker 2>its loss. Chicago feels like the refs screwed him at

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<v Speaker 2>the end. They hung thirty some points on Miami. They

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<v Speaker 2>finally have an identity on offense. And Detroit didn't lose

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<v Speaker 2>last week. I misspoke. Chicago feels about their loss motivated Detroit.

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<v Speaker 2>I wonder with that win against Green Bay, I don't want.

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<v Speaker 3>To say anything better than they are.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it may be a little satisfied. What I know

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<v Speaker 2>is this a at less than a field goal in

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<v Speaker 2>Soldier in Soldier Field, when Detroit's offense has been a

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<v Speaker 2>team that is only dominant when it's at home. I

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<v Speaker 2>really like Chicago. I like justin fields here Chicago minus

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half? All right, one more favorite. Then

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<v Speaker 2>we've got a couple underdog picks. So this to me

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<v Speaker 2>is a must bet. I understand the Raiders are an embarrassment.

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<v Speaker 2>I understand they have a worse time holding leads than

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<v Speaker 2>any team I can remember, and laying six points feels

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<v Speaker 2>like a lot. However, they are playing a team in

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<v Speaker 2>the Indianapolis Colts, that fired their play caller and then

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<v Speaker 2>had the worst offensive performance of any team in football

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<v Speaker 2>all year last week aginst the Patriots. They then fired

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<v Speaker 2>Frank Reich and hired a guy who's never been a

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<v Speaker 2>co at any level but high school out of the

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<v Speaker 2>ESPN studios in Jeff Saturday. If you are so, I expect,

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<v Speaker 2>and they promoted to play callers some thirty year old, right,

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<v Speaker 2>So I expect a number of things from the Colts.

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<v Speaker 2>One is for the offense. With Sam Ellinger, a sixth round,

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<v Speaker 2>second year player at quarterback, with nobody left on the

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<v Speaker 2>offensive staff coming off an impossibly bad performance, I expect

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<v Speaker 2>the offense to be disjointed, disorganized. That's from the offensive side,

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<v Speaker 2>from the team as a whole. I expect there to

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<v Speaker 2>be veterans in that locker room that feel insulted and

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<v Speaker 2>betrayed by the fact that this team has benched Matt Ryan. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>he wasn't playing well, but he gives you a better

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<v Speaker 2>chance to win. Sam Ellinger fired the coach and then

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<v Speaker 2>brought in this guy. And I think there are going

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<v Speaker 2>to be guys that have checked out on this season.

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<v Speaker 2>The Raiders, on the other hand, Josh McDaniels does not

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<v Speaker 2>want to be one and done. And the Raiders also,

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<v Speaker 2>three times this year in losses, have been up seventeen points,

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<v Speaker 2>set up, been up three scores in games they have

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<v Speaker 2>ultimately lost. Now that's pathetic by them, but it also

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<v Speaker 2>means they can move the football their wins they have

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<v Speaker 2>so the Raiders this year. We're up seventeen on Arizona

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<v Speaker 2>and lost beat Denver by two scores. We're up seventeen

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<v Speaker 2>on Kansas City and lost beat Houston by three scorers.

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<v Speaker 2>We're up seventeen on Jacksonville, the prince that was promised.

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<v Speaker 2>You guys wouldn't let me bet him. I'm very upset

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 2>with you guys about that, and lost.

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.080
<v Speaker 3>I mean what I mean, then you end up still

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:47.640
<v Speaker 3>betting on them.

0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:49.880
<v Speaker 2>That was a couple of weeks ago. Two weeks ago,

0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:57.760
<v Speaker 2>and so the Raiders are gonna move the football the Colts.

0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 2>The question to me is very simple, go ahead.

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.520
<v Speaker 3>Are we sure that Jeff Saturday isn't a worst coach

0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:04.840
<v Speaker 3>than Josh McDaniels.

0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 2>Are we sure that he is a worst coach? Yes,

0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm sure just out of life Josh McDaniel's not good.

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 2>But out of principle, this is an opportunity. There are

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 2>certain opportunities come along. There are no sure things in gambling.

0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:24.960
<v Speaker 2>I understand that, But I don't know that the Cults

0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.359
<v Speaker 2>are going to be underdogs of less than a touchdown

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.920
<v Speaker 2>again the rest of the year. If they play Houston again,

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:37.760
<v Speaker 2>maybe sure. But the being able to bet against whatever

0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 2>the hell they're doing in Indie and not having to

0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:44.040
<v Speaker 2>lay a full touchdown is an opportunity we must take.

0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:49.120
<v Speaker 2>And the real question is do you think the Raiders

0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 2>are getting to seventeen? If the answer is yes, then

0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 2>they cover because the Cultu are not breaking ten. The

0:14:56.600 --> 0:15:00.160
<v Speaker 2>Cultu are not breaking ten. The Raiders, I believe, are

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.800
<v Speaker 2>going to blow them out. So I will lay the

0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.920
<v Speaker 2>full six points in Vegas with the Raiders.

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 3>What's up, Chef Saturday, We're in here. He'd be real

0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:08.800
<v Speaker 3>fire right now.

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:10.720
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, listen, he gives a good press conference. The

0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:14.280
<v Speaker 2>guy's a media professional. I can't well. We talked more

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.640
<v Speaker 2>on Thursday's pod about that higher so I don't want

0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.000
<v Speaker 2>to spend time on it here. But Vegas minus six,

0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 2>all right, now, a couple of dogs. The Chargers getting

0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 2>a full seven in San Francisco against the Niners. Now,

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:35.440
<v Speaker 2>the injury report discrepancies here is concerning. The Chargers are

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 2>super banged up. The Niners are getting healthy, however, and

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 2>the Chargers not being able to defend the run for

0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 2>a couple of years. The Niners are just gonna want

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 2>to run the football. I understand all of them. With

0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 2>that said, the Chargers are sneaky alive for the AFC West. Still,

0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.960
<v Speaker 2>they have five wins, the Chiefs have six. The Chargers

0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:00.160
<v Speaker 2>escaped with the victory last week. They're not going to

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.480
<v Speaker 2>roll over, and the Chargers know that in the AFC.

0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.680
<v Speaker 2>They're not gonna win the AFC West. So for the AFC,

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 2>what final the wild card spots? You're going to have

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 2>the Dolphins, the Jets, the Bengals, and the Chargers. Those

0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:20.680
<v Speaker 2>four teams fighting with only one spot available. Those four

0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 2>teams fighting, I'm sorry, with only three spots available. One

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:25.880
<v Speaker 2>of those teams is what I'm trying to say, is

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 2>not going to make It is a critically important game.

0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 2>I do not think they win out right, but I

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 2>do think that this is a game they could win

0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:37.680
<v Speaker 2>out right. They have the better quarterback by far, and

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.440
<v Speaker 2>I expect it to be close and worst case scenario

0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:46.720
<v Speaker 2>of the Niners being up big, the Chargers have the

0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.120
<v Speaker 2>firepower and the offense even with the injuries where they

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 2>can backdoor cover. Seven is too many points. This is

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.640
<v Speaker 2>not a game we're gonna tease. This is not this

0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.640
<v Speaker 2>is a stay away on the teaser stuff. But the

0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Charge getting a full seven in San Francisco, it's too

0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:11.200
<v Speaker 2>many points. It should be San Francisco minus six, san

0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.159
<v Speaker 2>Francisco minus five and a half, the full sevens two

0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:17.840
<v Speaker 2>attractives pass up. We're jumping on it. Speaking of too

0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:21.439
<v Speaker 2>many points, final game of the weekend that we're picking

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:29.119
<v Speaker 2>Washington plus eleven against Philly. Washington is frisky with Taylor Heinek.

0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 2>Philly has not been They've not trailed in the second

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 2>half this year. It's pretty amazing. This is a divisional game,

0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:42.800
<v Speaker 2>it's national television. These types of games are not blowouts.

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:47.120
<v Speaker 2>And Washington again, the full eleven is like the ten

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.800
<v Speaker 2>and a half with green Bay, where even a game

0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:53.160
<v Speaker 2>like green Bay Buffalo that is a blowout, you're still

0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 2>almost always just one touchdown drive away from covering. I

0:17:57.400 --> 0:18:01.800
<v Speaker 2>don't think Washington can win, but I also think Washington

0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:05.119
<v Speaker 2>is looking at it like we are absolutely alive for

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:08.200
<v Speaker 2>the playoffs. I don't view them as alive for the playoffs,

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:09.440
<v Speaker 2>but from a record.

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:13.600
<v Speaker 3>Perspective, undefeated team, well, they got nothing to lose.

0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:17.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean everyone is going to get Philly is gonna

0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:21.000
<v Speaker 2>get everyone's best shot. It's a divisional game. It's too

0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:24.960
<v Speaker 2>many points. It's the only significant favorite of the weekend.

0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:27.439
<v Speaker 2>That's the other part of this that to me is

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 2>just wild, is that there are now that and we'll

0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:33.360
<v Speaker 2>talk more about it later. Now that there's questions about

0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 2>Josh Allen's availability, Buffalo is not a big favorite. The

0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.880
<v Speaker 2>Chiefs are a near double digit favorite, and the only

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.639
<v Speaker 2>other big favorite is Philly. It's too many points for

0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 2>a divisional matchup for a team that's not a terrible team.

0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 2>Washington plus eleven. So our five picks this week where

0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:53.800
<v Speaker 2>he got two favorites of less than a field goal

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:57.000
<v Speaker 2>at home Tennessee minus two and a half in Chicago,

0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 2>minus two and a half against two awful teams Denver

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.520
<v Speaker 2>in Detroit. We have one favorite of nearly a touchdown

0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:06.960
<v Speaker 2>but less than a touchdown against a team that clearly

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:10.000
<v Speaker 2>wants to tank and is in total upheaval and Indy.

0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.240
<v Speaker 2>And then we're grabbing the points with the Chargers plus

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 2>a full seven against I'm getting seven points and I

0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:20.160
<v Speaker 2>have the better quarterback. I like that. And then Washington,

0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:22.280
<v Speaker 2>it's just too many points. Way it should be a

0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:24.960
<v Speaker 2>nine and a half point line. It's an eleven point line.

0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:27.720
<v Speaker 2>Washington plus eleven. By the way, someone sent me the

0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:32.160
<v Speaker 2>clip the last time I did this about a nationally

0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:34.719
<v Speaker 2>televised game where a team was just getting too many points,

0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:39.360
<v Speaker 2>the Bills Packers game. Someone sent me the clip. I

0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:44.280
<v Speaker 2>nailed it to the number. Like I said, there's absolutely

0:19:44.280 --> 0:19:49.399
<v Speaker 2>a scenario where this thing ends twenty seven seventeen with

0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:52.680
<v Speaker 2>Green Bay back door covering, and it ended twenty seven

0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:57.640
<v Speaker 2>to seventeen. Now, those bets you haven't yet experienced, and

0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.600
<v Speaker 2>you're not gonna believe the odds on them because they're

0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:01.720
<v Speaker 2>almost impossible to win.

0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.159
<v Speaker 3>Oh, the guessing final score, the exact score.

0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:08.120
<v Speaker 2>Bets that pay like one hundred to one is two

0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:10.760
<v Speaker 2>hundred to one. Those seam right up your alley. So

0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 2>there's our five picks for the week. We got another

0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:15.600
<v Speaker 2>dozen games to go through. We'll put them in our

0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 2>four categories, Stay away, be careful, and perfectly priced. That's next,

0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 2>What's right.

0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.520
<v Speaker 4>This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the

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<v Speaker 2>All right, welcome back in What's right, Nick? Right, we

0:20:57.520 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 2>just gave you our five picks this week. Tennessee minus

0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:02.320
<v Speaker 2>too af, Chicago minus two and a half, Vegas minus six,

0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:06.600
<v Speaker 2>Chargers plus seven, and Washington plus eleven. There's you guys

0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:09.440
<v Speaker 2>will have already seen Thursday Night Football. I was kind

0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:12.320
<v Speaker 2>of upset last week because Thursday Night Football last week

0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:15.280
<v Speaker 2>I nailed. But we don't do those picks anymore because

0:21:15.320 --> 0:21:18.720
<v Speaker 2>people have already seen the game. But Thursday Night last week,

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 2>I said on the show, I just thought it was

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:24.160
<v Speaker 2>too many points with the Eagles against the Texans, and

0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:26.359
<v Speaker 2>I think it was ended up going off at thirteen

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.440
<v Speaker 2>and a half. The Texans lost by twelve. This week,

0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 2>the game that will have already been played is Atlanta

0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 2>laying two and a half at the Panthers. I would

0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:37.600
<v Speaker 2>like Atlanta here, but we're not. We're not doing anything

0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:39.840
<v Speaker 2>on that game, but just to get on the record,

0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:44.480
<v Speaker 2>I would like Atlanta here. All right, stay aways three

0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:49.560
<v Speaker 2>games Seattle and Tampa, Minnesota and Buffalo and Arizona and

0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:52.160
<v Speaker 2>the Rams, and I'll explain why those are our three

0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:56.760
<v Speaker 2>stay away games in order. Right now, Seattle is getting

0:21:57.040 --> 0:22:00.639
<v Speaker 2>two and a half points against Tampa in Germany. You

0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.680
<v Speaker 2>you want me to pick Seattle, correct Demanse? Yeah?

0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:04.960
<v Speaker 3>As always you like.

0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:09.439
<v Speaker 2>Seattle here, Yeah, I understand that. Why am I staying

0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 2>away from this game because of the flight? Because of

0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:18.359
<v Speaker 2>the flight? I know you're laughing. Okay. This is a

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:21.359
<v Speaker 2>good reminder for all our friends out there that bet

0:22:21.400 --> 0:22:26.159
<v Speaker 2>these games. You don't have to bet every game. Why

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:31.520
<v Speaker 2>would you want to bet the first game ever played

0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:36.440
<v Speaker 2>in Germany? We don't know what the impact. We literally

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:41.159
<v Speaker 2>have no proof of concept, no history to lean on, nothing.

0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:43.880
<v Speaker 3>So we're trusting Taylor Heineke in primetime, but not Seattle

0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:45.399
<v Speaker 3>Seahawks because of their long flight.

0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:52.840
<v Speaker 2>What I am saying is that there is so much unknowns.

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:56.760
<v Speaker 2>We have never seen an NFL team have to play

0:22:56.760 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 2>a game having traveled this far. It's the furthest any

0:23:01.000 --> 0:23:04.480
<v Speaker 2>team has traveled in the history of professional football to

0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:08.919
<v Speaker 2>play a football game, Seattle to Germany. Why would I

0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:11.679
<v Speaker 2>bet it? Now? You might say, well, in that case,

0:23:12.000 --> 0:23:14.399
<v Speaker 2>why aren't you just betting Tampa? Because I don't know.

0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:17.640
<v Speaker 2>Maybe it won't affect him at all. That is why

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:21.199
<v Speaker 2>we have the stay away category. Total unknown about the

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:24.360
<v Speaker 2>impact of the flight. We are staying away from it.

0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:29.160
<v Speaker 2>It also feels like they are daring you to pick Seattle.

0:23:29.720 --> 0:23:33.000
<v Speaker 2>That's almost why I put in the be careful category

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:37.560
<v Speaker 2>that Seattle is getting points against the Tampa team that's

0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:39.680
<v Speaker 2>looked like a mess all year. All right, next one,

0:23:40.000 --> 0:23:45.800
<v Speaker 2>Minnesota Buffalo. This game started Buffalo eight and a half, alright,

0:23:46.800 --> 0:23:50.240
<v Speaker 2>that in the look aheadline. It Then after the Bills

0:23:50.280 --> 0:23:52.119
<v Speaker 2>lost to the Jets, went to seven and a half.

0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:55.119
<v Speaker 2>Then Josh Allen's injury news came out. It dropped a

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:57.240
<v Speaker 2>four and a half. Now it's three and a half.

0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:06.159
<v Speaker 2>This if comes Sunday Josh Allen is ruled out, I

0:24:06.240 --> 0:24:10.560
<v Speaker 2>would obviously immediately bet Minnesota. I think it might move

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:12.560
<v Speaker 2>all the way to a pick them in that circumstance.

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:15.399
<v Speaker 2>But the Bills can't run the football, their defense is

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:19.000
<v Speaker 2>banged up. But because there is a real question about

0:24:19.000 --> 0:24:23.600
<v Speaker 2>the health of the Bill's most important offensive player by

0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:28.080
<v Speaker 2>a mile, you can't. I can't handicap this. If Josh

0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:32.720
<v Speaker 2>Allen plays Buffalo minus three and the line will move again.

0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:36.520
<v Speaker 2>But right now, if you knew what Josh Allen's playing

0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:39.119
<v Speaker 2>status is, you could get three points of value in

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:42.040
<v Speaker 2>either direction. If Josh Allen's playing, it should be bills

0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:44.159
<v Speaker 2>minus seven. If he's not playing, it should be a

0:24:44.160 --> 0:24:47.280
<v Speaker 2>pick him. We don't know, so we're staying away and

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:48.719
<v Speaker 2>the exact the go ahead.

0:24:48.760 --> 0:24:50.400
<v Speaker 3>So am I crazy for thinking the seven to one

0:24:50.440 --> 0:24:52.960
<v Speaker 3>Vikings aren't a bad pick even if Josh Allen does play.

0:24:53.280 --> 0:24:55.639
<v Speaker 2>Well, they are a bad pick at plus three and

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:58.560
<v Speaker 2>a half if Allan plays, because you could have gotten

0:24:58.600 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 2>it seven and a half on Monday morning, So you

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:05.399
<v Speaker 2>just you can't give up four points a line value.

0:25:05.600 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 2>The if you like the Vikings even if Allen plays,

0:25:10.240 --> 0:25:11.920
<v Speaker 2>then you wait until Sunday.

0:25:12.000 --> 0:25:13.720
<v Speaker 3>I lost the Jets with Josh.

0:25:13.880 --> 0:25:17.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I understand, But my point is this, if you

0:25:17.920 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 2>think the Vikings can cover even if Allen plays, then

0:25:20.920 --> 0:25:24.199
<v Speaker 2>wait till it's announced that he's playing and get the

0:25:24.280 --> 0:25:26.880
<v Speaker 2>extra points. Yeah, you know, or even if you want

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:29.000
<v Speaker 2>to beat him on the money line, get the extra value.

0:25:29.080 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 2>Like it's just too early and that by the will

0:25:32.240 --> 0:25:35.840
<v Speaker 2>be very quick. On Arizona, the Rams neither quarterback practice yesterday.

0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:40.560
<v Speaker 2>The stafford's in concussion protocol out of nowhere, so he's

0:25:40.600 --> 0:25:43.240
<v Speaker 2>probably not gonna play. They had to walk through yesterday.

0:25:43.240 --> 0:25:46.200
<v Speaker 2>In Arizona, Kyler was a non participant in the walk

0:25:46.280 --> 0:25:48.480
<v Speaker 2>through where they said he wouldn't have been a participant

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:50.560
<v Speaker 2>in practice. Now, didn't a new call of duty come out?

0:25:50.640 --> 0:25:50.720
<v Speaker 1>Yes?

0:25:50.800 --> 0:25:53.200
<v Speaker 3>Date, Yeah, there was an update.

0:25:53.400 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 2>This is we don't know who's playing quarterback for either team.

0:25:56.760 --> 0:25:59.000
<v Speaker 2>We're staying away. It's very simple. I'm not going to

0:25:59.040 --> 0:26:01.440
<v Speaker 2>spend time handicapping that we don't know I was playing quarterback,

0:26:01.480 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 2>all right, Be careful Jags at the Chiefs, Houston, at

0:26:06.800 --> 0:26:12.040
<v Speaker 2>the Giants in Cleveland, at Miami. So we're being careful

0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:15.240
<v Speaker 2>on Jags at Chiefs. What you look skeptical on?

0:26:15.480 --> 0:26:17.800
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's the Jags and the Chiefs. How do

0:26:17.840 --> 0:26:19.920
<v Speaker 3>you not bet a single side there? It's the prince

0:26:19.960 --> 0:26:21.800
<v Speaker 3>that was promising your boy, Patrick Mahomes.

0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so one of my flaws with gambling is I

0:26:26.600 --> 0:26:29.639
<v Speaker 2>won't bet against the Chiefs. I'll either bet on them

0:26:29.680 --> 0:26:34.840
<v Speaker 2>or stay away. Okay, obviously, you know the prince that

0:26:34.920 --> 0:26:37.679
<v Speaker 2>was promised ketchup. That'd be a double negative. That almost

0:26:37.720 --> 0:26:40.879
<v Speaker 2>ten points would be fun. You guys have banned me

0:26:40.920 --> 0:26:44.200
<v Speaker 2>from betting the Jaguars. However, here's why I'm saying, be careful.

0:26:45.280 --> 0:26:49.919
<v Speaker 2>Everybody thinks the Jags think the Chiefs are coming off

0:26:49.960 --> 0:26:52.600
<v Speaker 2>a game where Mahomes was great, but the offense wasn't explosive.

0:26:53.680 --> 0:26:57.280
<v Speaker 2>The whole world's gonna lay the nine and a half.

0:26:57.840 --> 0:27:02.040
<v Speaker 2>The Chiefs have not been a great team on spreads

0:27:02.080 --> 0:27:05.880
<v Speaker 2>more than a touchdown. They're great at covering medium spreads,

0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:09.680
<v Speaker 2>big spreads, they have not been great at that. They

0:27:09.760 --> 0:27:13.359
<v Speaker 2>their blowouts have come against teams they had, you know,

0:27:13.480 --> 0:27:18.640
<v Speaker 2>Arizona minus five, Tampa minus three. When they are expected

0:27:18.680 --> 0:27:21.840
<v Speaker 2>in Tennessee, they're by fourteen. Damnar lost the game. Yeah,

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:24.840
<v Speaker 2>So to me, it is a state. It is a

0:27:24.880 --> 0:27:27.320
<v Speaker 2>be careful because they're daring you to bet the Chiefs

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:29.119
<v Speaker 2>because you don't have to lay the full ten And

0:27:29.200 --> 0:27:35.639
<v Speaker 2>the next two are vintage be carefuls. Houston getting only

0:27:35.800 --> 0:27:40.080
<v Speaker 2>four and a half, the Giants having to lay even six,

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:44.560
<v Speaker 2>the Giants coming off a buye having to lay not

0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:47.400
<v Speaker 2>even six, a six and two team against a team

0:27:47.520 --> 0:27:49.960
<v Speaker 2>many people believe is the worst team in football. I

0:27:50.000 --> 0:27:53.840
<v Speaker 2>am telling you right now, everyone is gonna be on Houston.

0:27:53.840 --> 0:27:55.919
<v Speaker 3>Well, the Giants gonna start getting some respect. Man, This

0:27:56.119 --> 0:27:57.640
<v Speaker 3>is like one of the worst teams in the league

0:27:57.720 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 3>right now. And the yeah yeah, yeah yeah.

0:28:02.400 --> 0:28:06.320
<v Speaker 2>So here's the thing, You're fine. Uh. I think the

0:28:06.359 --> 0:28:09.959
<v Speaker 2>Giants are a good team with a bad quarterback, But

0:28:10.040 --> 0:28:14.880
<v Speaker 2>this I would feel better about betting the Giants. Sounds dumb,

0:28:14.920 --> 0:28:17.440
<v Speaker 2>but this is why we created Be Careful. I would

0:28:17.440 --> 0:28:22.000
<v Speaker 2>feel better about betting the Giants minus six than minus

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:24.520
<v Speaker 2>four and a half. Minus four and a half seems

0:28:24.560 --> 0:28:29.960
<v Speaker 2>like such a trap. It feels like Vegas is begging

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:33.520
<v Speaker 2>you to bet the Giants. The exact same thing with

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:39.160
<v Speaker 2>this next game, Cleveland at Miami. So Miami's undefeated with Tua,

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 2>the offense scores thirty points at will. Cleveland's offense, aside

0:28:45.120 --> 0:28:49.920
<v Speaker 2>from Nick Chubb, can do nothing. It's in Miami and

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 2>it's only three and a half. Do you is there

0:28:53.120 --> 0:28:57.840
<v Speaker 2>gonna be any what percent of the gambling public is

0:28:57.840 --> 0:29:00.600
<v Speaker 2>gonna be on the Giants and gonna be on Miami

0:29:00.880 --> 0:29:05.600
<v Speaker 2>seventy five percent? Eighty percent? Anyone feel great about betting

0:29:05.680 --> 0:29:10.239
<v Speaker 2>Jacoby Brissett versus that offense and you're only getting three

0:29:10.280 --> 0:29:12.600
<v Speaker 2>and a half points. The answer is no. So all

0:29:12.680 --> 0:29:17.000
<v Speaker 2>three of those games, particularly the Giants in Miami, Vegas

0:29:17.080 --> 0:29:22.240
<v Speaker 2>is daring you or begging you to bet the favor.

0:29:23.120 --> 0:29:26.960
<v Speaker 2>That's why we created Be carefuls and again, we would

0:29:27.000 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 2>have a better record this year if the be careful category.

0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:33.880
<v Speaker 2>We simply had the courage to take the other side,

0:29:34.000 --> 0:29:36.840
<v Speaker 2>to take Cleveland plus three and a half, to take

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:39.240
<v Speaker 2>Houston plus four and a half. We don't have that

0:29:39.320 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 2>much courage. But I know a trap line when I

0:29:42.320 --> 0:29:45.520
<v Speaker 2>see one. Everyone felt like it should have been Giants

0:29:45.520 --> 0:29:48.240
<v Speaker 2>minus six, and that it should be Miami minus seven.

0:29:48.520 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 2>The fact that it's Giants minus four and a half

0:29:50.760 --> 0:29:54.240
<v Speaker 2>Miami minus three and a half, to me, it's not value.

0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 2>It's a trap. We're staying away. And then the last

0:29:57.200 --> 0:30:00.400
<v Speaker 2>two perfectly priced. One I don't care about it, and

0:30:00.440 --> 0:30:03.000
<v Speaker 2>the others actually pretty interesting, but I think they priced

0:30:03.000 --> 0:30:05.280
<v Speaker 2>it just right. New Orleans at Pittsburgh's the one I

0:30:05.320 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 2>don't care about at all, Pittsburgh getting a point and

0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:10.120
<v Speaker 2>a half. We'll see if what TJ. Watt's status is.

0:30:10.280 --> 0:30:13.400
<v Speaker 2>New Orleans stinks both these offensive stink is gonna be

0:30:13.400 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 2>a terrible No one's gonna watch this game. I don't

0:30:15.600 --> 0:30:16.800
<v Speaker 2>want to spend any more time on it. I don't

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 2>even know it's perfectly priced. I just know I didn't

0:30:18.640 --> 0:30:20.520
<v Speaker 2>want to spend the time handicapping it. I'm out on

0:30:20.560 --> 0:30:22.840
<v Speaker 2>that game. No interest in watching it or gambling on.

0:30:23.560 --> 0:30:24.959
<v Speaker 2>Is there anything you want to say?

0:30:24.960 --> 0:30:27.240
<v Speaker 3>Mike Tomlin has covered eighty three percent of his games

0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:31.040
<v Speaker 3>as a home underdog. Andy Dalton is the road dog favorite.

0:30:31.080 --> 0:30:34.200
<v Speaker 2>Pittsburgh is off the by. You're missing on this one,

0:30:35.040 --> 0:30:37.040
<v Speaker 2>all right? This is the second time you've given me

0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:41.280
<v Speaker 2>Mike Tomlin news that I didn't know about. Yeah, that

0:30:41.480 --> 0:30:44.560
<v Speaker 2>is fascinating. He's covered eighty three percent of his name

0:30:44.800 --> 0:30:48.840
<v Speaker 2>great coach dog, eighty three percent of big number. I

0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:49.479
<v Speaker 2>might you know what?

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:50.920
<v Speaker 3>I think that also happens to be the best in

0:30:51.000 --> 0:30:52.680
<v Speaker 3>NFL history.

0:30:52.840 --> 0:30:55.960
<v Speaker 2>Wow, I might be missing on this one. I maybe

0:30:55.960 --> 0:30:58.960
<v Speaker 2>should include Pittsburgh. You know what I told you. I

0:30:59.000 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 2>didn't want to handicap it. I didn't investigate it. I

0:31:01.240 --> 0:31:03.040
<v Speaker 2>just threw them perfectly priced because I wanted to move

0:31:03.040 --> 0:31:04.960
<v Speaker 2>on from it, and I wanted to talk Dallas green Bay.

0:31:05.000 --> 0:31:08.880
<v Speaker 2>But that's a fun fact. So Dallas at green Bay.

0:31:08.920 --> 0:31:11.280
<v Speaker 2>The reason I think this is perfectly priced is you

0:31:11.440 --> 0:31:16.400
<v Speaker 2>can't make Green Bay a full touchdown underdog at home

0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:19.960
<v Speaker 2>when they are desperate. With that said, I don't see

0:31:19.960 --> 0:31:21.440
<v Speaker 2>how Green Bay is going to be able to move

0:31:21.440 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 2>the football against that Dallas defense. So I feel like

0:31:24.760 --> 0:31:27.360
<v Speaker 2>four would be too little. I feel like seven would

0:31:27.400 --> 0:31:30.040
<v Speaker 2>be too much. Five or six is just right. I

0:31:30.040 --> 0:31:34.760
<v Speaker 2>think they vegas. I expect this to be a twenty

0:31:34.880 --> 0:31:40.200
<v Speaker 2>one seventeen, twenty one fourteen type of game that Dallas

0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:43.960
<v Speaker 2>wins twenty four to seventeen, twenty four to twenty right

0:31:44.040 --> 0:31:46.800
<v Speaker 2>in there in that you know, four, five, six, seven

0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:48.760
<v Speaker 2>point range. So I think five is the right number.

0:31:48.840 --> 0:31:52.160
<v Speaker 3>So you see Rodgers losing six in a row evening.

0:31:51.840 --> 0:31:54.719
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, I think the Packers stink, and I think Rogers

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:57.440
<v Speaker 2>might be cooked. We talked about that on Thursday show.

0:31:57.680 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 2>So there it is. So we've got our three category

0:32:00.360 --> 0:32:03.920
<v Speaker 2>stay away from Seattle, Tampa, Minnesota, Buffalo and Arizona and

0:32:03.960 --> 0:32:06.880
<v Speaker 2>the Rams be careful laying the nine and a half

0:32:06.960 --> 0:32:08.680
<v Speaker 2>with the Chiefs, the four and a half with the Giants,

0:32:08.720 --> 0:32:12.200
<v Speaker 2>with the three and a half with Miami, and perfectly priced.

0:32:12.520 --> 0:32:16.160
<v Speaker 2>Maybe I missed on Pittsburgh. It sounds like Demanse and

0:32:16.200 --> 0:32:19.640
<v Speaker 2>our producers had some good Pittsburgh numbers and Dallas Green Bay.

0:32:19.920 --> 0:32:22.120
<v Speaker 2>Everyone's gonna watch it. You don't need to gamble on it.

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:25.080
<v Speaker 2>All right. We are red hot on these locks. I

0:32:25.120 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 2>can't remember the last time we didn't get a lock right,

0:32:28.360 --> 0:32:31.880
<v Speaker 2>We'll give you our lock. We'll see Demanse unfortunately not

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 2>red hot on his picks. We'll see if he has picks.

0:32:34.400 --> 0:32:39.280
<v Speaker 2>We'll update you on the half a million dollar Survivor

0:32:39.320 --> 0:32:42.760
<v Speaker 2>pool I'm in because we have a call it interesting update.

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:45.640
<v Speaker 2>We'll do all that. All that's as we wrap up

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:48.400
<v Speaker 2>episode ninety four of the Week ten Gambling Show on

0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:57.280
<v Speaker 2>What's Right? All right? Final segment, quick segment here recapping

0:32:57.320 --> 0:32:58.840
<v Speaker 2>our picks and giving you a lock of the week

0:32:58.880 --> 0:33:02.840
<v Speaker 2>and update on Survivor. So our picks this week Tennessee

0:33:02.880 --> 0:33:06.160
<v Speaker 2>minus two and a half, Chicago minus two and a half,

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:10.479
<v Speaker 2>Vegas minus six, Chargers plus seven, Washington plus eleven. Now,

0:33:10.520 --> 0:33:12.680
<v Speaker 2>I know what the right move is gonna be. I

0:33:12.800 --> 0:33:14.360
<v Speaker 2>know what our lock of the week is gonna be.

0:33:14.440 --> 0:33:17.960
<v Speaker 2>But of those demands, do you have one that jumps

0:33:17.960 --> 0:33:20.400
<v Speaker 2>out to you? Is there one that you think should

0:33:20.400 --> 0:33:23.920
<v Speaker 2>be the right move of our five picks this week?

0:33:24.760 --> 0:33:26.680
<v Speaker 2>You steered me right a couple of weeks ago. So

0:33:26.760 --> 0:33:29.240
<v Speaker 2>I'll listen to you. I know what I'm going with. Actually,

0:33:29.320 --> 0:33:31.160
<v Speaker 2>I won't be listening to you. I just want to

0:33:31.200 --> 0:33:34.320
<v Speaker 2>see if one of them jumps out to you. Is

0:33:34.360 --> 0:33:38.720
<v Speaker 2>there one I need an answer? Chicago. That's what I

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:42.480
<v Speaker 2>was going with. Oh, Demonse's really sad about his AirPods

0:33:42.560 --> 0:33:46.920
<v Speaker 2>right now. He's very disappointed. He's gonna rally Chicago minus

0:33:46.920 --> 0:33:49.440
<v Speaker 2>two and a half against Detroit. That was gonna be

0:33:49.480 --> 0:33:52.400
<v Speaker 2>the right move. That is the right move. You know what,

0:33:52.520 --> 0:33:55.800
<v Speaker 2>I can't believe we're locking up Chicago. But the other

0:33:55.880 --> 0:34:00.320
<v Speaker 2>thing that Justin Field's emergence has done, it is a

0:34:00.320 --> 0:34:04.800
<v Speaker 2>little mayhem with my planned out Survivor picks. Because my

0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:07.720
<v Speaker 2>plan was to fade Chicago as much as possible. You

0:34:07.920 --> 0:34:11.440
<v Speaker 2>have to switch that in Survivor to fading Indy as

0:34:11.480 --> 0:34:16.960
<v Speaker 2>much as possible. Amazingly, However, I don't have the Raiders

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:20.759
<v Speaker 2>available this week because the Raiders, even though they only

0:34:20.760 --> 0:34:23.279
<v Speaker 2>have two wins and I'm still alive in Survivor, I

0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:29.520
<v Speaker 2>already used them. So Indy, they do play Philadelphia next week.

0:34:30.200 --> 0:34:33.919
<v Speaker 2>That feels like pretty good Survivor pick if you still

0:34:33.920 --> 0:34:36.840
<v Speaker 2>have Philly available. They played Dallas in a few weeks,

0:34:37.000 --> 0:34:40.440
<v Speaker 2>and Indy's gonna be an absolute mess. Speaking of Survivor,

0:34:42.440 --> 0:34:45.880
<v Speaker 2>it's now down to one hundred and twelve people. It

0:34:45.920 --> 0:34:52.360
<v Speaker 2>would have been down to eighty exactly if the Chiefs

0:34:52.360 --> 0:34:56.279
<v Speaker 2>had lost, I did not have the Chiefs. If you

0:34:56.320 --> 0:34:59.560
<v Speaker 2>want to know how narrow deep my Chiefs loyalty goes,

0:35:00.160 --> 0:35:03.720
<v Speaker 2>it's half a million dollars to win this Survivor pool,

0:35:04.520 --> 0:35:07.920
<v Speaker 2>I would have knocked out thirty percent of the field

0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:11.280
<v Speaker 2>down to eighty people. Now you're talking with a real chance,

0:35:12.400 --> 0:35:14.040
<v Speaker 2>and I was still pulling for the Chiefs with all

0:35:14.080 --> 0:35:16.359
<v Speaker 2>my heart. I'll win Survivor without it. I don't need

0:35:16.400 --> 0:35:19.759
<v Speaker 2>those thirty two knockout. This week's an interesting survivor week

0:35:19.760 --> 0:35:23.120
<v Speaker 2>in the pool I'm in, though only twelve people have

0:35:23.239 --> 0:35:27.280
<v Speaker 2>Philadelphia available, so one hundred people and only like forty

0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:30.160
<v Speaker 2>of the Chiefs available, so half the pool is going

0:35:30.239 --> 0:35:36.000
<v Speaker 2>to have to go with non Chiefs, non Eagles. I

0:35:36.040 --> 0:35:40.040
<v Speaker 2>think a lot of people were planning on or are

0:35:40.120 --> 0:35:42.920
<v Speaker 2>planning on, going with the giants. I think it's an

0:35:42.960 --> 0:35:45.800
<v Speaker 2>interesting survivor week. And in a few weeks in my pool,

0:35:46.000 --> 0:35:48.719
<v Speaker 2>you have back to back double pick weeks. So I

0:35:48.760 --> 0:35:52.480
<v Speaker 2>think I'm not saying who I'm going with because people

0:35:52.560 --> 0:35:57.399
<v Speaker 2>watch and they're trying to win my money. But I'm

0:35:57.400 --> 0:36:00.040
<v Speaker 2>feeling good. I think by I think next week and

0:36:00.160 --> 0:36:02.680
<v Speaker 2>we talk, there's going to potentially be less than seventy

0:36:02.719 --> 0:36:07.279
<v Speaker 2>people left in this Survivor pool. Exotics this week don't

0:36:07.320 --> 0:36:10.480
<v Speaker 2>have one. My apologies, I went through it. There's no

0:36:10.560 --> 0:36:14.359
<v Speaker 2>great teaser. There is one teaser leg that I love,

0:36:14.760 --> 0:36:17.160
<v Speaker 2>but I can't find anyone to pair it with. The

0:36:17.200 --> 0:36:20.400
<v Speaker 2>teaser leg that I love is Tease, a seven point

0:36:20.400 --> 0:36:24.120
<v Speaker 2>teaser on the Chiefs, teasing the Chiefs down to minus

0:36:24.120 --> 0:36:26.520
<v Speaker 2>two and a half just to win by at least

0:36:26.520 --> 0:36:29.000
<v Speaker 2>a field goal. But what are we pairing it with?

0:36:29.480 --> 0:36:32.360
<v Speaker 2>I kind of would like to pair it with Houston,

0:36:32.640 --> 0:36:34.880
<v Speaker 2>but there's no value there going from five and a

0:36:34.880 --> 0:36:38.640
<v Speaker 2>half Philly twelve and a half the a Philly if

0:36:38.640 --> 0:36:41.839
<v Speaker 2>it were ten or less, yes, but if you're gonna

0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:43.960
<v Speaker 2>do a seven point teaser on a favorite, you want

0:36:43.960 --> 0:36:46.359
<v Speaker 2>to be able to get it through at least through

0:36:46.400 --> 0:36:49.320
<v Speaker 2>the four and really through the three. And Philly is

0:36:49.320 --> 0:36:51.880
<v Speaker 2>an eleven point favorite, so just get you to So

0:36:52.239 --> 0:36:57.319
<v Speaker 2>there's no great The most the teaser legs that would

0:36:57.320 --> 0:36:59.800
<v Speaker 2>make the most sense would be teasing Denver from to

0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.759
<v Speaker 2>and a half up to eight and a half or

0:37:02.840 --> 0:37:06.680
<v Speaker 2>nine and a half green Bay Green Bay. I again,

0:37:07.360 --> 0:37:10.640
<v Speaker 2>five point teams. You don't really you're not gonna get

0:37:10.640 --> 0:37:13.640
<v Speaker 2>as much value there, and I do think this scenario

0:37:13.640 --> 0:37:17.160
<v Speaker 2>where green Bay gets gets blown out. So no teaser

0:37:17.200 --> 0:37:20.839
<v Speaker 2>for us this week. To give you my apologies, I'd

0:37:20.840 --> 0:37:24.439
<v Speaker 2>love you if I could demanday. Last week went two

0:37:24.480 --> 0:37:27.680
<v Speaker 2>and three. Unfortunately he's gonna rally back this week. I

0:37:27.719 --> 0:37:29.840
<v Speaker 2>don't even know. Do you have picks you want to

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:31.760
<v Speaker 2>give out or staying away from it? Just the offer?

0:37:31.840 --> 0:37:33.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'm saving myself the embarrassment.

0:37:33.480 --> 0:37:35.600
<v Speaker 2>Okay, listen, it happens. Two and three is not terrible.

0:37:35.640 --> 0:37:37.560
<v Speaker 2>I had four straight weeks to two and three. I

0:37:37.800 --> 0:37:39.400
<v Speaker 2>get paid a lot of money for this. It's no

0:37:39.520 --> 0:37:43.520
<v Speaker 2>problem either The seventeen teaser or parlay was a little ambitious.

0:37:43.760 --> 0:37:46.080
<v Speaker 2>I gotta be honest with it was a touch ambitious.

0:37:46.120 --> 0:37:48.520
<v Speaker 2>All right? What's the offer? All right?

0:37:48.640 --> 0:37:52.520
<v Speaker 3>The offer this week is called daz on gembat okay

0:37:52.600 --> 0:37:54.000
<v Speaker 3>means the offer in German.

0:37:54.239 --> 0:37:58.880
<v Speaker 2>Oh oh, how about that? Look at that picture? Yeah German?

0:37:58.920 --> 0:38:01.120
<v Speaker 2>Pretzel a German? I love it? All right, go ahead

0:38:01.280 --> 0:38:01.960
<v Speaker 2>my profile pic.

0:38:02.040 --> 0:38:05.160
<v Speaker 3>Sure we are parlaying Seattle plus two and a half

0:38:05.160 --> 0:38:05.720
<v Speaker 3>in Germany.

0:38:06.360 --> 0:38:09.560
<v Speaker 2>Franz Wagner. Wagner is how you pronounce it, Wagner?

0:38:10.280 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 3>Yes, to win the most improved player in Germany to

0:38:13.239 --> 0:38:15.960
<v Speaker 3>win the World Cup. The odds come out to plus

0:38:16.040 --> 0:38:18.200
<v Speaker 3>two hundred and five thousand, four hundred and thirty five.

0:38:19.600 --> 0:38:23.320
<v Speaker 2>And then they're saying off winder shine, which I assume

0:38:23.360 --> 0:38:29.080
<v Speaker 2>means good luck. I'm not certain off winter shine. I'm

0:38:29.080 --> 0:38:31.920
<v Speaker 2>not taking that off. No, I'm not betting on Franz

0:38:31.960 --> 0:38:34.520
<v Speaker 2>Wagner win most improved player. I'm not betting on Germany

0:38:34.520 --> 0:38:36.759
<v Speaker 2>to win the World Cup. And I'm not tying up

0:38:36.880 --> 0:38:42.120
<v Speaker 2>money until May when they will announce most of the player.

0:38:42.520 --> 0:38:46.640
<v Speaker 2>I'm not giving giving a betting service, my money interest

0:38:46.719 --> 0:38:50.239
<v Speaker 2>free for them to hold. So see it. One leg

0:38:50.280 --> 0:38:52.920
<v Speaker 2>of it is going to be done this weekend. It wins,

0:38:53.080 --> 0:38:54.680
<v Speaker 2>we don't know if we've won the bet. I do

0:38:54.760 --> 0:38:59.400
<v Speaker 2>appreciate the thrill. You know what, are the most improved player?

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:00.920
<v Speaker 2>You know what I'm I'm not spending time on this.

0:39:01.000 --> 0:39:02.920
<v Speaker 2>Germany's on my pick to win the World Cup. I

0:39:02.920 --> 0:39:05.960
<v Speaker 2>don't like rooting for Germany. I every year in the

0:39:05.960 --> 0:39:08.120
<v Speaker 2>World Cup I root for Brazil because I don't think

0:39:08.320 --> 0:39:10.080
<v Speaker 2>they are the favorites. I don't think they're gonna win

0:39:10.120 --> 0:39:13.040
<v Speaker 2>this year. They just play such a fun style of football.

0:39:12.840 --> 0:39:15.400
<v Speaker 2>We'll talk more World Cup on the actual gambling on

0:39:15.440 --> 0:39:20.360
<v Speaker 2>the actual show. Next week. That's Today's Gambling Show, episode

0:39:20.480 --> 0:39:23.359
<v Speaker 2>ninety four. Good luck this weekend. Hope you win your

0:39:23.360 --> 0:39:28.880
<v Speaker 2>butt bets. Talk to you on Monday. What's right that's not?

0:39:29.080 --> 0:39:39.920
<v Speaker 3>Germany