Speaker 1: This episode is brought to you by Love Hurts. Keith
Speaker 1: week Kwan has had quite a career, from childhood roles
Speaker 1: in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The
Speaker 1: Goonies to a recent Academy Award win for Everything Everywhere,
Speaker 1: All at Once. But now Keith finally stars as a
Speaker 1: leading man in the film Love Hurts. Love Hurts is
Speaker 1: the perfect date night movie with its mix of over
Speaker 1: the top action comedy and a ton of heart. Love
Speaker 1: Hurts Only at theaters February seventh.
Speaker 2: Welcome in episode ninety four, What's Right with Nick Wright,
Speaker 2: our Week ten NFL gambling show, and a lot of
Speaker 2: things going on right now. One is this is going
Speaker 2: to be at this show today is going to be
Speaker 2: a test of Demanse's ability to lock in and focus,
Speaker 2: because he is livid right now Cuz after I gave
Speaker 2: him a hard time a few weeks ago about not
Speaker 2: having his AirPods, he double checked to make sure he
Speaker 2: had them on the ride to the studio, and now
Speaker 2: fears he left them in the ride to the studio.
Speaker 2: And there is nothing in the world that frustrates my
Speaker 2: son more than that type of mistake. He is right
Speaker 2: now on a if he walked out of this studio
Speaker 2: and got hit by a car, he would not be
Speaker 2: as frustrated as he is this very moment. And then
Speaker 2: you add to it the layer of and then we'll
Speaker 2: talk about the good things going on. You add to
Speaker 2: the layer of Demonse learned a new gambling lesson last week,
Speaker 2: which it didn't end up even costing him his bets
Speaker 2: because after hitting a five team parlay two weeks ago,
Speaker 2: last week flew a little too close to the sun.
Speaker 2: Tried some six and seven teamers didn't work, But the
Speaker 2: first leg to lose of any of those was the Oh,
Speaker 2: let me just throw row the Bill's money line on there.
Speaker 2: If this thing's gonna pay ten dollars to win three ten,
Speaker 2: why not make it ten to win three forty free money.
Speaker 2: It's not like the Bills can lose the old huge
Speaker 2: favorite add them on the money line. We ca call
Speaker 2: that the cousin sALS special. It's what my cousin Sala
Speaker 2: is known for. So we dealt with that gambling loss.
Speaker 2: He's now figuring out it does this uber driver have
Speaker 2: my AirPods or is it somewhere in this here. So
Speaker 2: there's a lot going on so you know the yin
Speaker 2: and the yang, if you will, A little rough ninety
Speaker 2: six hours for the wonderful demons. I, on the other hand,
Speaker 2: am flying higher than a kite. Last week show the
Speaker 2: record three one and one after we were in the
Speaker 2: depths back to back winning weeks, we are now six
Speaker 2: three and one the last two weeks. Really should be
Speaker 2: seven to in one the last two weeks, but I
Speaker 2: got talked out of a good Bengals pick and instead
Speaker 2: got a bad Vikings pick, or the other way around.
Speaker 2: Whatever it was two weeks ago. Last week, the Colts
Speaker 2: plus five and a half against the Patriots. You know
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna say, I wasn't on the wrong side
Speaker 2: of that. Let me now. They got annihilated and then
Speaker 2: they fired their coach and the iied Jeff Saturday, and
Speaker 2: the whole thing's an embarrassment. My argument there was, I
Speaker 2: don't see how the Patriots can crack seventeen points. The
Speaker 2: Patriots kicked four field goals and scored two touchdowns. Here's
Speaker 2: how they scored their touchdowns, a pick six and a
Speaker 2: blocked punt that was returned to the two yard line.
Speaker 2: Their offense did nothing. Atlanta plus three against the Chargers.
Speaker 2: That's a push that it was stolen from me, the
Speaker 2: fact that the Chargers pushed that when Atlanta had the
Speaker 2: ball running up field after a Charger fumbled and then
Speaker 2: the guy just fundled. Yeah, the ball out of his
Speaker 2: own hands. Seattle plus two, never a doubt. Baltimore minus
Speaker 2: two and a half, Never a doubt. And for the
Speaker 2: second straight week, our lock of the week on national
Speaker 2: television comes down to the wire and we cover by
Speaker 2: a half point. Oh my goodness, Green Bay plus ten
Speaker 2: and a half, followed by Tampa minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: So we're feeling great. We go four and one this week,
Speaker 2: and we are above five hundred for the season, but
Speaker 2: we would be at five hundred by and let you
Speaker 2: guys make me switch my pick a week ago. But it
Speaker 2: doesn't matter. We are feeling great. We love this slate,
Speaker 2: love the slate, and as promised, we're hitting our stride
Speaker 2: for the stretch run of the year. The goal is
Speaker 2: on the season to be at fifty eight percent. That
Speaker 2: would be highly profitable, and then the goal is in
Speaker 2: the playoffs to be great, So to be at fifty
Speaker 2: eight percent. Let me do some very quick math here
Speaker 2: before we get to today's picks. So we're doing five
Speaker 2: a week. Five times eighteen is ninety, so zero point
Speaker 2: five eight times ninety we would need fifty two wins.
Speaker 2: We would need to go fifty two and thirty eight
Speaker 2: on the season. We are right now twenty one, twenty
Speaker 2: three and one on the season, so we've got to go.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be hard. We gotta go essentially thirty. Oh boy,
Speaker 2: that's good, we gotta go. Let's just try to go
Speaker 2: thirty and fifteen, thirty and fifteen the rest of the way.
Speaker 2: Six has sixty seven percent. We can do it four
Speaker 2: and one weeks, three and two weeks, maybe mix in
Speaker 2: a five and oh week. I feel this week right
Speaker 2: here doesn't feel like a five and oh week, but
Speaker 2: it sure as hell feels like a four and one week.
Speaker 2: Let's show this. Let's show our first pick. Tennessee minus
Speaker 2: two and a half at home against Denver. Now, there
Speaker 2: is some questions about Ryan Tannahill's health. We are recording
Speaker 2: this on Thursday. We don't yet have the Thursday injury report. However,
Speaker 2: here is what is going into my pick here. Ryan
Speaker 2: Tannehill briefly kind of warmed up against the Chiefs game
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs in that game. That's a good sign.
Speaker 2: He was not a did not participate in practice. He
Speaker 2: was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. So it's
Speaker 2: trending in the right direction. So if Tannehill, I believe
Speaker 2: is likely to play, even if it's limited, what on
Speaker 2: earth would make anyone think the Titans should not be
Speaker 2: at least four point favorites against Denver. Denver's been awful.
Speaker 2: I know they're coming off a win in London and
Speaker 2: then they got the buye. I get that. Tennessee. On
Speaker 2: the other hand, Derrick Henry has been unstoppable. The biggest
Speaker 2: mistake they made in that Chiefs game was not giving
Speaker 2: him the ball. More Malik Willis will either have at
Speaker 2: least some experience if he is starting, and they'll have
Speaker 2: more experience figuring out what he can and can't do,
Speaker 2: or more likely Ryan Tannehills there more importantly, you know
Speaker 2: exactly what Denver is going to try to do offensively,
Speaker 2: which is nothing, and then take some deep shots with Russ.
Speaker 2: That Titans defense, what did it show against the Chiefs?
Speaker 2: Gave up a ton of yards, but was really good
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs. And if not for Patrick Mahomes and
Speaker 2: the Chiefs got no huge plays and not for Patrick
Speaker 2: Mahomes with his legs, the Chiefs lose that game. Well,
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson won't run. Biggest plays of the game third
Speaker 2: and seventeen. Mahomes scrambled third and nine at near the
Speaker 2: in the red zone. Mahomes scrambled for a touchdown, two
Speaker 2: point conversion. Mahomes scrambled for that. Russ is not doing that.
Speaker 2: The Titans are a good team. They're at home. Denver's
Speaker 2: a bad team. They're on the road. Were laying less
Speaker 2: than a field goal. We love Tennessee minus two and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 3: I think you and other people might be a little
Speaker 3: bit too high on them because of how they held
Speaker 3: up against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: But it's not just the Chiefs. It's that the previous
Speaker 2: week against the Texans with no quarterback, with Malik Willis
Speaker 2: making his first career start, they were up seventeen to three.
Speaker 2: I know you're like, oh, that's the Texans. The Broncos
Speaker 2: are not markedly better than the Texans the previous to
Speaker 2: They're just not previous to that. They beat Indy by
Speaker 2: two scores, they beat Washington, they beat Indy again, they
Speaker 2: beat Vegas, now, they're not winning these games by big margins.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're a dominant team. And at three
Speaker 2: and a half, I might have pause. Tennessee minus two
Speaker 2: and a half. Tennessee wins by a field goal. We
Speaker 2: love it. Next, right, Chicago minus two and a half
Speaker 2: against Detroit. Okay, so let's talk about the line for
Speaker 2: a moment, because right now we feel like they're a
Speaker 2: touch over valued. Here's why we feel like they're a
Speaker 2: touch overvalued. And is this the game? I hope we
Speaker 2: have the graphics for it that I was supposed to
Speaker 2: go to Chicago. There is Chicago minus two and a
Speaker 2: half against Detroit. Detroit going into that Packer game, was
Speaker 2: on pace to be the worst defense in the history
Speaker 2: of the NFL. Points wise, give up more points than
Speaker 2: any team ever in the history of the NFL. In
Speaker 2: that Packer game, it's like, oh, the defense turned a corner,
Speaker 2: did it? Aaron Rodgers at the one yard line through
Speaker 2: the ball into a defensive lineman's helmet. Aaron Rodgers was
Speaker 2: then again at the one yard line through an interception
Speaker 2: on a pass to a left tackle. Aaron Rodgers was
Speaker 2: then again inside the twenty five through an interception at
Speaker 2: the goal line once again. They then at the end
Speaker 2: of the game drove into the red zone and Rodgers
Speaker 2: missed the pass. So while the Packers were not able
Speaker 2: to do anything offensively from a points per ppecse, they
Speaker 2: were able to move the football. And then you have Chicago.
Speaker 2: Justin Fields now that he is being allowed to run,
Speaker 2: is one of the most dynamic, threatening players in the
Speaker 2: entire league. Now he has weaknesses and the Bears defense
Speaker 2: they trade away Roquan Smith, they trade away, oh, the
Speaker 2: Robert Quinn. So there are some issues with them defensively.
Speaker 2: I don't know that Detroit can take advantage of those
Speaker 2: issues right now that offense has come back down to
Speaker 2: earth Detroit. They You have two teams that feel very
Speaker 2: differently about their losses last week. Chicago feels great about
Speaker 2: its loss. Chicago feels like the refs screwed him at
Speaker 2: the end. They hung thirty some points on Miami. They
Speaker 2: finally have an identity on offense. And Detroit didn't lose
Speaker 2: last week. I misspoke. Chicago feels about their loss motivated Detroit.
Speaker 2: I wonder with that win against Green Bay, I don't want.
Speaker 3: To say anything better than they are.
Speaker 2: Well, it may be a little satisfied. What I know
Speaker 2: is this a at less than a field goal in
Speaker 2: Soldier in Soldier Field, when Detroit's offense has been a
Speaker 2: team that is only dominant when it's at home. I
Speaker 2: really like Chicago. I like justin fields here Chicago minus
Speaker 2: two and a half? All right, one more favorite. Then
Speaker 2: we've got a couple underdog picks. So this to me
Speaker 2: is a must bet. I understand the Raiders are an embarrassment.
Speaker 2: I understand they have a worse time holding leads than
Speaker 2: any team I can remember, and laying six points feels
Speaker 2: like a lot. However, they are playing a team in
Speaker 2: the Indianapolis Colts, that fired their play caller and then
Speaker 2: had the worst offensive performance of any team in football
Speaker 2: all year last week aginst the Patriots. They then fired
Speaker 2: Frank Reich and hired a guy who's never been a
Speaker 2: co at any level but high school out of the
Speaker 2: ESPN studios in Jeff Saturday. If you are so, I expect,
Speaker 2: and they promoted to play callers some thirty year old, right,
Speaker 2: So I expect a number of things from the Colts.
Speaker 2: One is for the offense. With Sam Ellinger, a sixth round,
Speaker 2: second year player at quarterback, with nobody left on the
Speaker 2: offensive staff coming off an impossibly bad performance, I expect
Speaker 2: the offense to be disjointed, disorganized. That's from the offensive side,
Speaker 2: from the team as a whole. I expect there to
Speaker 2: be veterans in that locker room that feel insulted and
Speaker 2: betrayed by the fact that this team has benched Matt Ryan. Now,
Speaker 2: he wasn't playing well, but he gives you a better
Speaker 2: chance to win. Sam Ellinger fired the coach and then
Speaker 2: brought in this guy. And I think there are going
Speaker 2: to be guys that have checked out on this season.
Speaker 2: The Raiders, on the other hand, Josh McDaniels does not
Speaker 2: want to be one and done. And the Raiders also,
Speaker 2: three times this year in losses, have been up seventeen points,
Speaker 2: set up, been up three scores in games they have
Speaker 2: ultimately lost. Now that's pathetic by them, but it also
Speaker 2: means they can move the football their wins they have
Speaker 2: so the Raiders this year. We're up seventeen on Arizona
Speaker 2: and lost beat Denver by two scores. We're up seventeen
Speaker 2: on Kansas City and lost beat Houston by three scorers.
Speaker 2: We're up seventeen on Jacksonville, the prince that was promised.
Speaker 2: You guys wouldn't let me bet him. I'm very upset
Speaker 2: with you guys about that, and lost.
Speaker 3: I mean what I mean, then you end up still
Speaker 3: betting on them.
Speaker 2: That was a couple of weeks ago. Two weeks ago,
Speaker 2: and so the Raiders are gonna move the football the Colts.
Speaker 2: The question to me is very simple, go ahead.
Speaker 3: Are we sure that Jeff Saturday isn't a worst coach
Speaker 3: than Josh McDaniels.
Speaker 2: Are we sure that he is a worst coach? Yes,
Speaker 2: I'm sure just out of life Josh McDaniel's not good.
Speaker 2: But out of principle, this is an opportunity. There are
Speaker 2: certain opportunities come along. There are no sure things in gambling.
Speaker 2: I understand that, But I don't know that the Cults
Speaker 2: are going to be underdogs of less than a touchdown
Speaker 2: again the rest of the year. If they play Houston again,
Speaker 2: maybe sure. But the being able to bet against whatever
Speaker 2: the hell they're doing in Indie and not having to
Speaker 2: lay a full touchdown is an opportunity we must take.
Speaker 2: And the real question is do you think the Raiders
Speaker 2: are getting to seventeen? If the answer is yes, then
Speaker 2: they cover because the Cultu are not breaking ten. The
Speaker 2: Cultu are not breaking ten. The Raiders, I believe, are
Speaker 2: going to blow them out. So I will lay the
Speaker 2: full six points in Vegas with the Raiders.
Speaker 3: What's up, Chef Saturday, We're in here. He'd be real
Speaker 3: fire right now.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, listen, he gives a good press conference. The
Speaker 2: guy's a media professional. I can't well. We talked more
Speaker 2: on Thursday's pod about that higher so I don't want
Speaker 2: to spend time on it here. But Vegas minus six,
Speaker 2: all right, now, a couple of dogs. The Chargers getting
Speaker 2: a full seven in San Francisco against the Niners. Now,
Speaker 2: the injury report discrepancies here is concerning. The Chargers are
Speaker 2: super banged up. The Niners are getting healthy, however, and
Speaker 2: the Chargers not being able to defend the run for
Speaker 2: a couple of years. The Niners are just gonna want
Speaker 2: to run the football. I understand all of them. With
Speaker 2: that said, the Chargers are sneaky alive for the AFC West. Still,
Speaker 2: they have five wins, the Chiefs have six. The Chargers
Speaker 2: escaped with the victory last week. They're not going to
Speaker 2: roll over, and the Chargers know that in the AFC.
Speaker 2: They're not gonna win the AFC West. So for the AFC,
Speaker 2: what final the wild card spots? You're going to have
Speaker 2: the Dolphins, the Jets, the Bengals, and the Chargers. Those
Speaker 2: four teams fighting with only one spot available. Those four
Speaker 2: teams fighting, I'm sorry, with only three spots available. One
Speaker 2: of those teams is what I'm trying to say, is
Speaker 2: not going to make It is a critically important game.
Speaker 2: I do not think they win out right, but I
Speaker 2: do think that this is a game they could win
Speaker 2: out right. They have the better quarterback by far, and
Speaker 2: I expect it to be close and worst case scenario
Speaker 2: of the Niners being up big, the Chargers have the
Speaker 2: firepower and the offense even with the injuries where they
Speaker 2: can backdoor cover. Seven is too many points. This is
Speaker 2: not a game we're gonna tease. This is not this
Speaker 2: is a stay away on the teaser stuff. But the
Speaker 2: Charge getting a full seven in San Francisco, it's too
Speaker 2: many points. It should be San Francisco minus six, san
Speaker 2: Francisco minus five and a half, the full sevens two
Speaker 2: attractives pass up. We're jumping on it. Speaking of too
Speaker 2: many points, final game of the weekend that we're picking
Speaker 2: Washington plus eleven against Philly. Washington is frisky with Taylor Heinek.
Speaker 2: Philly has not been They've not trailed in the second
Speaker 2: half this year. It's pretty amazing. This is a divisional game,
Speaker 2: it's national television. These types of games are not blowouts.
Speaker 2: And Washington again, the full eleven is like the ten
Speaker 2: and a half with green Bay, where even a game
Speaker 2: like green Bay Buffalo that is a blowout, you're still
Speaker 2: almost always just one touchdown drive away from covering. I
Speaker 2: don't think Washington can win, but I also think Washington
Speaker 2: is looking at it like we are absolutely alive for
Speaker 2: the playoffs. I don't view them as alive for the playoffs,
Speaker 2: but from a record.
Speaker 3: Perspective, undefeated team, well, they got nothing to lose.
Speaker 2: I mean everyone is going to get Philly is gonna
Speaker 2: get everyone's best shot. It's a divisional game. It's too
Speaker 2: many points. It's the only significant favorite of the weekend.
Speaker 2: That's the other part of this that to me is
Speaker 2: just wild, is that there are now that and we'll
Speaker 2: talk more about it later. Now that there's questions about
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's availability, Buffalo is not a big favorite. The
Speaker 2: Chiefs are a near double digit favorite, and the only
Speaker 2: other big favorite is Philly. It's too many points for
Speaker 2: a divisional matchup for a team that's not a terrible team.
Speaker 2: Washington plus eleven. So our five picks this week where
Speaker 2: he got two favorites of less than a field goal
Speaker 2: at home Tennessee minus two and a half in Chicago,
Speaker 2: minus two and a half against two awful teams Denver
Speaker 2: in Detroit. We have one favorite of nearly a touchdown
Speaker 2: but less than a touchdown against a team that clearly
Speaker 2: wants to tank and is in total upheaval and Indy.
Speaker 2: And then we're grabbing the points with the Chargers plus
Speaker 2: a full seven against I'm getting seven points and I
Speaker 2: have the better quarterback. I like that. And then Washington,
Speaker 2: it's just too many points. Way it should be a
Speaker 2: nine and a half point line. It's an eleven point line.
Speaker 2: Washington plus eleven. By the way, someone sent me the
Speaker 2: clip the last time I did this about a nationally
Speaker 2: televised game where a team was just getting too many points,
Speaker 2: the Bills Packers game. Someone sent me the clip. I
Speaker 2: nailed it to the number. Like I said, there's absolutely
Speaker 2: a scenario where this thing ends twenty seven seventeen with
Speaker 2: Green Bay back door covering, and it ended twenty seven
Speaker 2: to seventeen. Now, those bets you haven't yet experienced, and
Speaker 2: you're not gonna believe the odds on them because they're
Speaker 2: almost impossible to win.
Speaker 3: Oh, the guessing final score, the exact score.
Speaker 2: Bets that pay like one hundred to one is two
Speaker 2: hundred to one. Those seam right up your alley. So
Speaker 2: there's our five picks for the week. We got another
Speaker 2: dozen games to go through. We'll put them in our
Speaker 2: four categories, Stay away, be careful, and perfectly priced. That's next,
Speaker 2: What's right.
Speaker 4: This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the
Speaker 4: inspiring true story about Anthony Roblast, who defined every expectation
Speaker 4: to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new
Speaker 4: original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg.
Speaker 4: Evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and
Speaker 4: thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast
Speaker 4: including Jerrel Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Panya, and
Speaker 4: Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.
Speaker 2: All right, welcome back in What's right, Nick? Right, we
Speaker 2: just gave you our five picks this week. Tennessee minus
Speaker 2: too af, Chicago minus two and a half, Vegas minus six,
Speaker 2: Chargers plus seven, and Washington plus eleven. There's you guys
Speaker 2: will have already seen Thursday Night Football. I was kind
Speaker 2: of upset last week because Thursday Night Football last week
Speaker 2: I nailed. But we don't do those picks anymore because
Speaker 2: people have already seen the game. But Thursday Night last week,
Speaker 2: I said on the show, I just thought it was
Speaker 2: too many points with the Eagles against the Texans, and
Speaker 2: I think it was ended up going off at thirteen
Speaker 2: and a half. The Texans lost by twelve. This week,
Speaker 2: the game that will have already been played is Atlanta
Speaker 2: laying two and a half at the Panthers. I would
Speaker 2: like Atlanta here, but we're not. We're not doing anything
Speaker 2: on that game, but just to get on the record,
Speaker 2: I would like Atlanta here. All right, stay aways three
Speaker 2: games Seattle and Tampa, Minnesota and Buffalo and Arizona and
Speaker 2: the Rams, and I'll explain why those are our three
Speaker 2: stay away games in order. Right now, Seattle is getting
Speaker 2: two and a half points against Tampa in Germany. You
Speaker 2: you want me to pick Seattle, correct Demanse? Yeah?
Speaker 3: As always you like.
Speaker 2: Seattle here, Yeah, I understand that. Why am I staying
Speaker 2: away from this game because of the flight? Because of
Speaker 2: the flight? I know you're laughing. Okay. This is a
Speaker 2: good reminder for all our friends out there that bet
Speaker 2: these games. You don't have to bet every game. Why
Speaker 2: would you want to bet the first game ever played
Speaker 2: in Germany? We don't know what the impact. We literally
Speaker 2: have no proof of concept, no history to lean on, nothing.
Speaker 3: So we're trusting Taylor Heineke in primetime, but not Seattle
Speaker 3: Seahawks because of their long flight.
Speaker 2: What I am saying is that there is so much unknowns.
Speaker 2: We have never seen an NFL team have to play
Speaker 2: a game having traveled this far. It's the furthest any
Speaker 2: team has traveled in the history of professional football to
Speaker 2: play a football game, Seattle to Germany. Why would I
Speaker 2: bet it? Now? You might say, well, in that case,
Speaker 2: why aren't you just betting Tampa? Because I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maybe it won't affect him at all. That is why
Speaker 2: we have the stay away category. Total unknown about the
Speaker 2: impact of the flight. We are staying away from it.
Speaker 2: It also feels like they are daring you to pick Seattle.
Speaker 2: That's almost why I put in the be careful category
Speaker 2: that Seattle is getting points against the Tampa team that's
Speaker 2: looked like a mess all year. All right, next one,
Speaker 2: Minnesota Buffalo. This game started Buffalo eight and a half, alright,
Speaker 2: that in the look aheadline. It Then after the Bills
Speaker 2: lost to the Jets, went to seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Then Josh Allen's injury news came out. It dropped a
Speaker 2: four and a half. Now it's three and a half.
Speaker 2: This if comes Sunday Josh Allen is ruled out, I
Speaker 2: would obviously immediately bet Minnesota. I think it might move
Speaker 2: all the way to a pick them in that circumstance.
Speaker 2: But the Bills can't run the football, their defense is
Speaker 2: banged up. But because there is a real question about
Speaker 2: the health of the Bill's most important offensive player by
Speaker 2: a mile, you can't. I can't handicap this. If Josh
Speaker 2: Allen plays Buffalo minus three and the line will move again.
Speaker 2: But right now, if you knew what Josh Allen's playing
Speaker 2: status is, you could get three points of value in
Speaker 2: either direction. If Josh Allen's playing, it should be bills
Speaker 2: minus seven. If he's not playing, it should be a
Speaker 2: pick him. We don't know, so we're staying away and
Speaker 2: the exact the go ahead.
Speaker 3: So am I crazy for thinking the seven to one
Speaker 3: Vikings aren't a bad pick even if Josh Allen does play.
Speaker 2: Well, they are a bad pick at plus three and
Speaker 2: a half if Allan plays, because you could have gotten
Speaker 2: it seven and a half on Monday morning, So you
Speaker 2: just you can't give up four points a line value.
Speaker 2: The if you like the Vikings even if Allen plays,
Speaker 2: then you wait until Sunday.
Speaker 3: I lost the Jets with Josh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I understand, But my point is this, if you
Speaker 2: think the Vikings can cover even if Allen plays, then
Speaker 2: wait till it's announced that he's playing and get the
Speaker 2: extra points. Yeah, you know, or even if you want
Speaker 2: to beat him on the money line, get the extra value.
Speaker 2: Like it's just too early and that by the will
Speaker 2: be very quick. On Arizona, the Rams neither quarterback practice yesterday.
Speaker 2: The stafford's in concussion protocol out of nowhere, so he's
Speaker 2: probably not gonna play. They had to walk through yesterday.
Speaker 2: In Arizona, Kyler was a non participant in the walk
Speaker 2: through where they said he wouldn't have been a participant
Speaker 2: in practice. Now, didn't a new call of duty come out?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 3: Date, Yeah, there was an update.
Speaker 2: This is we don't know who's playing quarterback for either team.
Speaker 2: We're staying away. It's very simple. I'm not going to
Speaker 2: spend time handicapping that we don't know I was playing quarterback,
Speaker 2: all right, Be careful Jags at the Chiefs, Houston, at
Speaker 2: the Giants in Cleveland, at Miami. So we're being careful
Speaker 2: on Jags at Chiefs. What you look skeptical on?
Speaker 3: I mean, it's the Jags and the Chiefs. How do
Speaker 3: you not bet a single side there? It's the prince
Speaker 3: that was promising your boy, Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 2: Okay, so one of my flaws with gambling is I
Speaker 2: won't bet against the Chiefs. I'll either bet on them
Speaker 2: or stay away. Okay, obviously, you know the prince that
Speaker 2: was promised ketchup. That'd be a double negative. That almost
Speaker 2: ten points would be fun. You guys have banned me
Speaker 2: from betting the Jaguars. However, here's why I'm saying, be careful.
Speaker 2: Everybody thinks the Jags think the Chiefs are coming off
Speaker 2: a game where Mahomes was great, but the offense wasn't explosive.
Speaker 2: The whole world's gonna lay the nine and a half.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs have not been a great team on spreads
Speaker 2: more than a touchdown. They're great at covering medium spreads,
Speaker 2: big spreads, they have not been great at that. They
Speaker 2: their blowouts have come against teams they had, you know,
Speaker 2: Arizona minus five, Tampa minus three. When they are expected
Speaker 2: in Tennessee, they're by fourteen. Damnar lost the game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: So to me, it is a state. It is a
Speaker 2: be careful because they're daring you to bet the Chiefs
Speaker 2: because you don't have to lay the full ten And
Speaker 2: the next two are vintage be carefuls. Houston getting only
Speaker 2: four and a half, the Giants having to lay even six,
Speaker 2: the Giants coming off a buye having to lay not
Speaker 2: even six, a six and two team against a team
Speaker 2: many people believe is the worst team in football. I
Speaker 2: am telling you right now, everyone is gonna be on Houston.
Speaker 3: Well, the Giants gonna start getting some respect. Man, This
Speaker 3: is like one of the worst teams in the league
Speaker 3: right now. And the yeah yeah, yeah yeah.
Speaker 2: So here's the thing, You're fine. Uh. I think the
Speaker 2: Giants are a good team with a bad quarterback, But
Speaker 2: this I would feel better about betting the Giants. Sounds dumb,
Speaker 2: but this is why we created Be Careful. I would
Speaker 2: feel better about betting the Giants minus six than minus
Speaker 2: four and a half. Minus four and a half seems
Speaker 2: like such a trap. It feels like Vegas is begging
Speaker 2: you to bet the Giants. The exact same thing with
Speaker 2: this next game, Cleveland at Miami. So Miami's undefeated with Tua,
Speaker 2: the offense scores thirty points at will. Cleveland's offense, aside
Speaker 2: from Nick Chubb, can do nothing. It's in Miami and
Speaker 2: it's only three and a half. Do you is there
Speaker 2: gonna be any what percent of the gambling public is
Speaker 2: gonna be on the Giants and gonna be on Miami
Speaker 2: seventy five percent? Eighty percent? Anyone feel great about betting
Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett versus that offense and you're only getting three
Speaker 2: and a half points. The answer is no. So all
Speaker 2: three of those games, particularly the Giants in Miami, Vegas
Speaker 2: is daring you or begging you to bet the favor.
Speaker 2: That's why we created Be carefuls and again, we would
Speaker 2: have a better record this year if the be careful category.
Speaker 2: We simply had the courage to take the other side,
Speaker 2: to take Cleveland plus three and a half, to take
Speaker 2: Houston plus four and a half. We don't have that
Speaker 2: much courage. But I know a trap line when I
Speaker 2: see one. Everyone felt like it should have been Giants
Speaker 2: minus six, and that it should be Miami minus seven.
Speaker 2: The fact that it's Giants minus four and a half
Speaker 2: Miami minus three and a half, to me, it's not value.
Speaker 2: It's a trap. We're staying away. And then the last
Speaker 2: two perfectly priced. One I don't care about it, and
Speaker 2: the others actually pretty interesting, but I think they priced
Speaker 2: it just right. New Orleans at Pittsburgh's the one I
Speaker 2: don't care about at all, Pittsburgh getting a point and
Speaker 2: a half. We'll see if what TJ. Watt's status is.
Speaker 2: New Orleans stinks both these offensive stink is gonna be
Speaker 2: a terrible No one's gonna watch this game. I don't
Speaker 2: want to spend any more time on it. I don't
Speaker 2: even know it's perfectly priced. I just know I didn't
Speaker 2: want to spend the time handicapping it. I'm out on
Speaker 2: that game. No interest in watching it or gambling on.
Speaker 2: Is there anything you want to say?
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin has covered eighty three percent of his games
Speaker 3: as a home underdog. Andy Dalton is the road dog favorite.
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is off the by. You're missing on this one,
Speaker 2: all right? This is the second time you've given me
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin news that I didn't know about. Yeah, that
Speaker 2: is fascinating. He's covered eighty three percent of his name
Speaker 2: great coach dog, eighty three percent of big number. I
Speaker 2: might you know what?
Speaker 3: I think that also happens to be the best in
Speaker 3: NFL history.
Speaker 2: Wow, I might be missing on this one. I maybe
Speaker 2: should include Pittsburgh. You know what I told you. I
Speaker 2: didn't want to handicap it. I didn't investigate it. I
Speaker 2: just threw them perfectly priced because I wanted to move
Speaker 2: on from it, and I wanted to talk Dallas green Bay.
Speaker 2: But that's a fun fact. So Dallas at green Bay.
Speaker 2: The reason I think this is perfectly priced is you
Speaker 2: can't make Green Bay a full touchdown underdog at home
Speaker 2: when they are desperate. With that said, I don't see
Speaker 2: how Green Bay is going to be able to move
Speaker 2: the football against that Dallas defense. So I feel like
Speaker 2: four would be too little. I feel like seven would
Speaker 2: be too much. Five or six is just right. I
Speaker 2: think they vegas. I expect this to be a twenty
Speaker 2: one seventeen, twenty one fourteen type of game that Dallas
Speaker 2: wins twenty four to seventeen, twenty four to twenty right
Speaker 2: in there in that you know, four, five, six, seven
Speaker 2: point range. So I think five is the right number.
Speaker 3: So you see Rodgers losing six in a row evening.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I think the Packers stink, and I think Rogers
Speaker 2: might be cooked. We talked about that on Thursday show.
Speaker 2: So there it is. So we've got our three category
Speaker 2: stay away from Seattle, Tampa, Minnesota, Buffalo and Arizona and
Speaker 2: the Rams be careful laying the nine and a half
Speaker 2: with the Chiefs, the four and a half with the Giants,
Speaker 2: with the three and a half with Miami, and perfectly priced.
Speaker 2: Maybe I missed on Pittsburgh. It sounds like Demanse and
Speaker 2: our producers had some good Pittsburgh numbers and Dallas Green Bay.
Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna watch it. You don't need to gamble on it.
Speaker 2: All right. We are red hot on these locks. I
Speaker 2: can't remember the last time we didn't get a lock right,
Speaker 2: We'll give you our lock. We'll see Demanse unfortunately not
Speaker 2: red hot on his picks. We'll see if he has picks.
Speaker 2: We'll update you on the half a million dollar Survivor
Speaker 2: pool I'm in because we have a call it interesting update.
Speaker 2: We'll do all that. All that's as we wrap up
Speaker 2: episode ninety four of the Week ten Gambling Show on
Speaker 2: What's Right? All right? Final segment, quick segment here recapping
Speaker 2: our picks and giving you a lock of the week
Speaker 2: and update on Survivor. So our picks this week Tennessee
Speaker 2: minus two and a half, Chicago minus two and a half,
Speaker 2: Vegas minus six, Chargers plus seven, Washington plus eleven. Now,
Speaker 2: I know what the right move is gonna be. I
Speaker 2: know what our lock of the week is gonna be.
Speaker 2: But of those demands, do you have one that jumps
Speaker 2: out to you? Is there one that you think should
Speaker 2: be the right move of our five picks this week?
Speaker 2: You steered me right a couple of weeks ago. So
Speaker 2: I'll listen to you. I know what I'm going with. Actually,
Speaker 2: I won't be listening to you. I just want to
Speaker 2: see if one of them jumps out to you. Is
Speaker 2: there one I need an answer? Chicago. That's what I
Speaker 2: was going with. Oh, Demonse's really sad about his AirPods
Speaker 2: right now. He's very disappointed. He's gonna rally Chicago minus
Speaker 2: two and a half against Detroit. That was gonna be
Speaker 2: the right move. That is the right move. You know what,
Speaker 2: I can't believe we're locking up Chicago. But the other
Speaker 2: thing that Justin Field's emergence has done, it is a
Speaker 2: little mayhem with my planned out Survivor picks. Because my
Speaker 2: plan was to fade Chicago as much as possible. You
Speaker 2: have to switch that in Survivor to fading Indy as
Speaker 2: much as possible. Amazingly, However, I don't have the Raiders
Speaker 2: available this week because the Raiders, even though they only
Speaker 2: have two wins and I'm still alive in Survivor, I
Speaker 2: already used them. So Indy, they do play Philadelphia next week.
Speaker 2: That feels like pretty good Survivor pick if you still
Speaker 2: have Philly available. They played Dallas in a few weeks,
Speaker 2: and Indy's gonna be an absolute mess. Speaking of Survivor,
Speaker 2: it's now down to one hundred and twelve people. It
Speaker 2: would have been down to eighty exactly if the Chiefs
Speaker 2: had lost, I did not have the Chiefs. If you
Speaker 2: want to know how narrow deep my Chiefs loyalty goes,
Speaker 2: it's half a million dollars to win this Survivor pool,
Speaker 2: I would have knocked out thirty percent of the field
Speaker 2: down to eighty people. Now you're talking with a real chance,
Speaker 2: and I was still pulling for the Chiefs with all
Speaker 2: my heart. I'll win Survivor without it. I don't need
Speaker 2: those thirty two knockout. This week's an interesting survivor week
Speaker 2: in the pool I'm in, though only twelve people have
Speaker 2: Philadelphia available, so one hundred people and only like forty
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs available, so half the pool is going
Speaker 2: to have to go with non Chiefs, non Eagles. I
Speaker 2: think a lot of people were planning on or are
Speaker 2: planning on, going with the giants. I think it's an
Speaker 2: interesting survivor week. And in a few weeks in my pool,
Speaker 2: you have back to back double pick weeks. So I
Speaker 2: think I'm not saying who I'm going with because people
Speaker 2: watch and they're trying to win my money. But I'm
Speaker 2: feeling good. I think by I think next week and
Speaker 2: we talk, there's going to potentially be less than seventy
Speaker 2: people left in this Survivor pool. Exotics this week don't
Speaker 2: have one. My apologies, I went through it. There's no
Speaker 2: great teaser. There is one teaser leg that I love,
Speaker 2: but I can't find anyone to pair it with. The
Speaker 2: teaser leg that I love is Tease, a seven point
Speaker 2: teaser on the Chiefs, teasing the Chiefs down to minus
Speaker 2: two and a half just to win by at least
Speaker 2: a field goal. But what are we pairing it with?
Speaker 2: I kind of would like to pair it with Houston,
Speaker 2: but there's no value there going from five and a
Speaker 2: half Philly twelve and a half the a Philly if
Speaker 2: it were ten or less, yes, but if you're gonna
Speaker 2: do a seven point teaser on a favorite, you want
Speaker 2: to be able to get it through at least through
Speaker 2: the four and really through the three. And Philly is
Speaker 2: an eleven point favorite, so just get you to So
Speaker 2: there's no great The most the teaser legs that would
Speaker 2: make the most sense would be teasing Denver from to
Speaker 2: and a half up to eight and a half or
Speaker 2: nine and a half green Bay Green Bay. I again,
Speaker 2: five point teams. You don't really you're not gonna get
Speaker 2: as much value there, and I do think this scenario
Speaker 2: where green Bay gets gets blown out. So no teaser
Speaker 2: for us this week. To give you my apologies, I'd
Speaker 2: love you if I could demanday. Last week went two
Speaker 2: and three. Unfortunately he's gonna rally back this week. I
Speaker 2: don't even know. Do you have picks you want to
Speaker 2: give out or staying away from it? Just the offer?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm saving myself the embarrassment.
Speaker 2: Okay, listen, it happens. Two and three is not terrible.
Speaker 2: I had four straight weeks to two and three. I
Speaker 2: get paid a lot of money for this. It's no
Speaker 2: problem either The seventeen teaser or parlay was a little ambitious.
Speaker 2: I gotta be honest with it was a touch ambitious.
Speaker 2: All right? What's the offer? All right?
Speaker 3: The offer this week is called daz on gembat okay
Speaker 3: means the offer in German.
Speaker 2: Oh oh, how about that? Look at that picture? Yeah German?
Speaker 2: Pretzel a German? I love it? All right, go ahead
Speaker 2: my profile pic.
Speaker 3: Sure we are parlaying Seattle plus two and a half
Speaker 3: in Germany.
Speaker 2: Franz Wagner. Wagner is how you pronounce it, Wagner?
Speaker 3: Yes, to win the most improved player in Germany to
Speaker 3: win the World Cup. The odds come out to plus
Speaker 3: two hundred and five thousand, four hundred and thirty five.
Speaker 2: And then they're saying off winder shine, which I assume
Speaker 2: means good luck. I'm not certain off winter shine. I'm
Speaker 2: not taking that off. No, I'm not betting on Franz
Speaker 2: Wagner win most improved player. I'm not betting on Germany
Speaker 2: to win the World Cup. And I'm not tying up
Speaker 2: money until May when they will announce most of the player.
Speaker 2: I'm not giving giving a betting service, my money interest
Speaker 2: free for them to hold. So see it. One leg
Speaker 2: of it is going to be done this weekend. It wins,
Speaker 2: we don't know if we've won the bet. I do
Speaker 2: appreciate the thrill. You know what, are the most improved player?
Speaker 2: You know what I'm I'm not spending time on this.
Speaker 2: Germany's on my pick to win the World Cup. I
Speaker 2: don't like rooting for Germany. I every year in the
Speaker 2: World Cup I root for Brazil because I don't think
Speaker 2: they are the favorites. I don't think they're gonna win
Speaker 2: this year. They just play such a fun style of football.
Speaker 2: We'll talk more World Cup on the actual gambling on
Speaker 2: the actual show. Next week. That's Today's Gambling Show, episode
Speaker 2: ninety four. Good luck this weekend. Hope you win your
Speaker 2: butt bets. Talk to you on Monday. What's right that's not?
Speaker 3: Germany