WEBVTT - Reflecting on Crypto's Wild Ride Since June

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily Bloomberg I Heard podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm Stacy Marie Ishmael, Managing editor of Crypto for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Mus It's Friday, October twenty one. This is episode one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred of the Bloomberg Crypto podcast. When we launched in June,

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin was trading around thirty dollars salsios in three hours.

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<v Speaker 1>Capital hadn't yet filed for bankruptcy. People knew where Do

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<v Speaker 1>Kwan was, Celebrities cared about n f T s. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a different time. When we launched, we knew what

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted to do. Every day we take a look

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<v Speaker 1>at all things digital assets, the merge, absolutely, algorithmic stable

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<v Speaker 1>coins of course, bitcoin mining, no doubt. And we talked

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<v Speaker 1>to reporters, editors, analysts, investors, industry experts, academics, policymakers, all

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<v Speaker 1>in service of helping you better understand how crypto is

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<v Speaker 1>shaping and being shaped by finance and culture. So for

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<v Speaker 1>this one episode, we're flipping the focus just a little.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna spend some time answering your questions and hearing

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Senior Executive Editor Chris Nigi, a k a.

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<v Speaker 1>My boss the creation of of the Wedger, of the

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<v Speaker 1>blockchain letger seems like probably a kind of immutable part

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<v Speaker 1>of the evolution of people kind. Chris, Welcome to the podcast. Chris.

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<v Speaker 1>You are here not just because you are my boss,

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<v Speaker 1>but that helps, though, but also because part of your

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<v Speaker 1>responsibility here at Bloomberg is understanding better than any of

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<v Speaker 1>us really, like why markets are doing whatever it is

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<v Speaker 1>that they're doing. What has it been like for you

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<v Speaker 1>having to do that for Crypto for the past year

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<v Speaker 1>or so, pretty crazy, I would say, to begin with.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's not like the rest of the world's

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<v Speaker 1>markets have been behaving particularly sanely. Let's just establish that

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<v Speaker 1>at the outset um, this has been as looney h

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<v Speaker 1>two and a half years as I've ever seen. But

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<v Speaker 1>I would say Crypto has just been sort of a

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<v Speaker 1>proxy for the emotions that are driving everything else. It's

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<v Speaker 1>been somewhat of a lesson in whichful thinking, which markets

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<v Speaker 1>frequently are needless to say, But I think the big

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<v Speaker 1>sort of kind of logic artifact of the last eight

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<v Speaker 1>months or whatever it's been has been the upending of

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<v Speaker 1>the big theory around which is that it was would

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<v Speaker 1>work as an inflation hedge. I don't think anyone really

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<v Speaker 1>knew whether that was going to pan out, coming in

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<v Speaker 1>and watching it turn out not to be true, and

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<v Speaker 1>for crypto to be quite pretty much everything else a

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<v Speaker 1>call option on the world's liquidity has been pretty instructive.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we can pretty safely say at this point

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<v Speaker 1>it's not working out as an inflation hedge, and it's uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's Corroatian to everything else wishful has has been. It's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a big feature, and from the perspective of people

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<v Speaker 1>who don't want it to be correlated, more bug than feature,

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<v Speaker 1>really right, It's like in the absence of having something

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<v Speaker 1>like Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, in the absence of

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<v Speaker 1>having wacky tokens in your portfolio that you should be

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<v Speaker 1>getting like some alpha out of because they don't move

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<v Speaker 1>like anything else. What makes these markets interesting, then, the

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<v Speaker 1>raw psychology of it all, I think is its main attraction.

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<v Speaker 1>It remains hard for me to see exactly what the

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<v Speaker 1>value proposition is here. I think that separate from the

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<v Speaker 1>from the question of whether or not it's a workable

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<v Speaker 1>sort of means of exchange, which I think is a

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<v Speaker 1>much more interesting topic for crypto in general. It's speculative

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<v Speaker 1>meaning has I mean it's always been pure. We just

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<v Speaker 1>that it's been how many people can we get enthusiastic

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<v Speaker 1>about it, just like many other things and beat it

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<v Speaker 1>if we real markets right now like technology, Cromly, Meme stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>but really the rest of the market. There's another aspect

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<v Speaker 1>of it that I find pretty interesting. You know, people

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<v Speaker 1>who have written bitcoin both up and down, and the

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<v Speaker 1>way that it works as sort of again in wishful

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<v Speaker 1>thinking aspect, the people who wrote it up are largely

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<v Speaker 1>the same people who wrote it down. Says so much

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<v Speaker 1>about what investing is. The ability to hang with something

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<v Speaker 1>that rose as much as bitcoin in the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>it's saladays one I am convinced and this is like

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<v Speaker 1>maybe my first rule of investing. It is the exact

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<v Speaker 1>same thing that causes you to hold it all the

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<v Speaker 1>way back to where it is now. Um. I have

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<v Speaker 1>relatives who have done this, who if you said a

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<v Speaker 1>single discouraging thing to them about bitcoined any Thanksgiving is

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<v Speaker 1>where these things typically happen, you would you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>would be basically depending on the specific road punched out

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<v Speaker 1>of the room. And this lesson the fact that the

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<v Speaker 1>same talents to make you a star investor in the

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<v Speaker 1>way up are the ones that kill you on the

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<v Speaker 1>way down. I just think is arguably the most interesting

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<v Speaker 1>sort of immutable fact of markets. You said a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of things there that kind of anticipated some questions that

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<v Speaker 1>we got one of them very directly, right, So, Philip

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<v Speaker 1>Route in do crypto markets reflect the same kind of

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<v Speaker 1>trading psychology as other markets? What I'm hearing from you

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<v Speaker 1>is like, there's definitely a psychology, but it's not the

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<v Speaker 1>one you might necessary only expect. I was talking to

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<v Speaker 1>one of the producers on the show, Sharon earlier, about

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that you know, people buy high and sell

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<v Speaker 1>low in crypto, which is very confusing. But it's that

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<v Speaker 1>same energy that you're describing. Yeah, no, no question. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just as millions of people have said, it's just

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of reinvention of of facts of investing and

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<v Speaker 1>finance that have been been with us forever. Something's hype

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<v Speaker 1>catches on and that's what draws people to it. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>it's particularly pronounced in bitcoin because or crypto in general.

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<v Speaker 1>Because I failed to sort of understand what exactly the

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<v Speaker 1>argument is that should give it sort of speculative value.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm aware of some of the argument some of the

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<v Speaker 1>qualities that made gold into a lasting store of value.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact that it doesn't rust was a big one

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<v Speaker 1>of them. Was by far the closest I ever came

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<v Speaker 1>to understand. And why this stuff should work is a

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<v Speaker 1>long term store value. It's it's immutability, it's finiteness. That

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<v Speaker 1>is something that kind of gives it a kind of

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<v Speaker 1>intrinsic difference from everything else. But still, there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of scarce things in the world, and it's been difficult

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<v Speaker 1>for me to quite differentiate Bitcoin from from a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of those that don't have any value, don't fluctuate, go

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<v Speaker 1>up and down like crazy. So again it's just been

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<v Speaker 1>a pure hype machine. It's, uh, you know what else

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<v Speaker 1>can we say? I I it gives me no great

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<v Speaker 1>pleasure to make that case. But that's what happened over

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<v Speaker 1>the last three years with meme stocks, with all these

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<v Speaker 1>things that I feel like people largely knew better about

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<v Speaker 1>and decided to take a punt on anyway, And I

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<v Speaker 1>guess this is what happens. Well. Charlie who asked the

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<v Speaker 1>question why does a crypto like bitcoin have any value? Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the answer is maybe you know, I think it's it

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<v Speaker 1>has value that not to get to sort of either

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<v Speaker 1>heady or existential, but some some days I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>it has value because people decided has value. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about crypto that to me has always behave less

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<v Speaker 1>like a predictable financial assets and more like, as you

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<v Speaker 1>said earlier, a barometer of sentiments than anything else. That's true,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean a lot of the stuff that gets rayed

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<v Speaker 1>around it as UH sort of initial conception, digital unit

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<v Speaker 1>of exchange, a thing for remittances, just blockchain sort of

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<v Speaker 1>database ledger technology. In general, I think it's really subverted

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<v Speaker 1>by the obsession with its UH. It's up and downs

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<v Speaker 1>causes a lot of waste to occur around around the asset.

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<v Speaker 1>It's very difficult to obviously make any of these means

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<v Speaker 1>of exchange systems work with the thing fluctuating like crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>Another thing is that a ton of bad money is

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<v Speaker 1>thrown at bad ideas result of it. I think this

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<v Speaker 1>is a big problem right now. Your your average sort

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<v Speaker 1>of cryptos startup is some number go up, number go

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<v Speaker 1>down thing in essence, and it's diverting money from things

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<v Speaker 1>that actually could work. When thinks, I mean, maybe that's

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<v Speaker 1>how how things like this always work. Undoubtedly, it is

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<v Speaker 1>to some degree that you're going to have a long

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<v Speaker 1>period of wasteful spending that absolutely happened during the Internet bubble,

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<v Speaker 1>and then good things when people not coincidentally, when the

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<v Speaker 1>price finally collapsed and the obsession went away, that's when

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the serious commerce started to be built. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>You are perhaps inadvertently echoing the idea of many adventure

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<v Speaker 1>capitalists right now that this is the time to build right,

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<v Speaker 1>the notion that the speculative accesses are being run out

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<v Speaker 1>of the market, the irresponsible players are having to be

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<v Speaker 1>more responsible ergo, we should see some actual use cases

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<v Speaker 1>arriving sometime imminently. Yeah, and the psycho is not in

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<v Speaker 1>any way different from the way nineties. I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>another big distraction was just the number of Charlotte's involved

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<v Speaker 1>in it. A lot of clear grifters that were sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the face of bitcoin for a long time. It's

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<v Speaker 1>good that they that they get moved out. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>they're never going away completely, but that doesn't help the case,

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<v Speaker 1>and it makes it very easy to throw mud at it.

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<v Speaker 1>And believe me, I love the throwing of mud at it.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, but all of these distractions were

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<v Speaker 1>not a great thing for the overall prop it's just

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<v Speaker 1>made it so assailable. Coming up, you'll hear more from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Senior executive editor Chris nag and we'll be answering

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<v Speaker 1>direct questions from our listeners. We'll be right back. It's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of weird when institutional investors or representatives of institutional

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<v Speaker 1>investors are like, I would like more volatility, please, because

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<v Speaker 1>my job is not fun enough. But I'm getting vibe,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, And having been covering this and some of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that we've talked about is that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people are in this because they felt like it

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<v Speaker 1>would be fun. And the existence of the Charlottean's, the grifters,

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<v Speaker 1>the bad money being thrown after bad ideas was like

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of acceptable externality as long as there was

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<v Speaker 1>a good time to be had. But now there are

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<v Speaker 1>new policies and everyone is sad, but the grifters are

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<v Speaker 1>still there. I am sure that the untold stories of

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<v Speaker 1>sort of speculative fortunes that were made off this thing

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<v Speaker 1>through that. I mean, you know, f t X is

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<v Speaker 1>reasonably forthright about some of their capers in the in

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<v Speaker 1>the space you can only imagine given heads fun wherewithal

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<v Speaker 1>and the intelligence being poured into the trading side of it,

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<v Speaker 1>the stories that see, the uncovered stories that exist around

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<v Speaker 1>just gigantic fortunes being made. The fact that that may

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<v Speaker 1>have been coming to an end. People are lamenting that. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know the welcome again just scuation you had, you

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<v Speaker 1>had a window to get that done. I suspect a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of really smart people did get that done, are

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<v Speaker 1>sitting on island somewhere, and again, these things have life cycles.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you are one of the persons sitting on

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<v Speaker 1>a yacht or on an island who made a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of money doing shenanigans and would like to tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about it, all of the reporters of Bloomberg have signal,

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<v Speaker 1>feel free to let us know we're having to chat

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<v Speaker 1>at any time. One of the big picture questions that

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<v Speaker 1>we got and I feel like you are uncommonly qualified

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<v Speaker 1>to think about this, given the remit of your universe

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<v Speaker 1>is from Johannes Where do you think crypto will be

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred years from now? I struggle with the like

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<v Speaker 1>the baseline question of like, what do you think is

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen tomorrow? So a hundred years from now

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<v Speaker 1>feels hilariously far away. But are there any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>big ends that you're seeing that you think either crypto

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<v Speaker 1>is like going to benefit from or is it just

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<v Speaker 1>going to be nuclear war and none of this is

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<v Speaker 1>gonna matter anyway? Well, that'll probably be true. But leaving

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<v Speaker 1>that out, I do feel like the whole concept of

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<v Speaker 1>trustlessness is kind of inescapable evolution of basically everything. I think,

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<v Speaker 1>just sort of the distributed nous of online life and

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<v Speaker 1>the way that trend is going, the way you know,

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<v Speaker 1>everything is becoming basically unverifiable that you look at in

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<v Speaker 1>the world, deep fakes, Twitter, like everything that goes on

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<v Speaker 1>is totally depersonalized increasingly and impossible to trust. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that that aspect of it is probably right at some level,

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<v Speaker 1>Like the creation of of the ledger, of the blockchain

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<v Speaker 1>ledger seems like probably a kind of immutable part of

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<v Speaker 1>the evolution of of people kind basically. So, in a

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<v Speaker 1>very odd sense, I suspect that the discoveries in the

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<v Speaker 1>area of sort of restlessness is it's what it's big

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<v Speaker 1>discovery is going to end up being. And if everything

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<v Speaker 1>gets tokenized and I have an app where every single

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<v Speaker 1>possible financial gesture. I could possibly make scandaled through the

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<v Speaker 1>same channel someday. I wonder if that will be me,

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<v Speaker 1>But I do feel like the arrow of financial revolution

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of heads in that direction at some level. Well

0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.680
<v Speaker 1>t I L. You are a gigantic hobsy in so

0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 1>no amazing Well, thank you so much, Chris, A pleasure

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:44.720
<v Speaker 1>to have you on the podcast. Same, thank you, Thanks

0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:47.800
<v Speaker 1>again to everyone who's amissed questions, and thank you Chris Nig.

0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 1>You can find Chris ns with a at Chris nig

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<v Speaker 1>One that c h R I s n A g

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<v Speaker 1>I one on the next episode of Bloomberg Crypto. September

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<v Speaker 1>might have a reputation for being cruel to the bitcoin faithful,

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 1>but are they also in for a ska in October.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily podcast from Bloomberg and

0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.240
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0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.200
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0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:35.280
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0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:39.120
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0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.920
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0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.240
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0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:51.000
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0:15:51.880 --> 0:16:01.360
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0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Staring at a Fund in a d