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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing in Joe spect We're saying it's a catch touchtar.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big banksmall banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabak.

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Speaker 3: You want to pack.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 4: This is your NFL Week three Best Bets episode. I'm

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Speaker 4: your host, Brendan glas Sheen, today, joined by three Action

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Speaker 4: Network experts, will be going through their three favorite bets

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Speaker 4: for each of the games this coming weekend. We have

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Speaker 4: five and four in week two with each of the

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Speaker 4: guys riding packers minus nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: Thank you Aaron Rodgers and Company.

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Speaker 4: To close out last Sunday and seven through two weeks

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Speaker 4: not too shabby.

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Speaker 3: Today are three experts.

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Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson, he returns per usual, Luke Swayin otherwise known

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Speaker 4: as Vegas Refund, and Joe Gallant rejoins us. He was

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Speaker 4: with us in week one. Jill went two and one

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Speaker 4: in week one. Thank you, Matt Ryan catch Jill. Sunday

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Speaker 4: Mornings ten thirty Eastern for the Touchdown show on Action HQs, Twitter,

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Speaker 4: and the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, you

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Speaker 4: can use the very same Action Network app to follow

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Speaker 4: today's picks. Just use the apps follow feature and search

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Speaker 4: for Action Network NFL picks.

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Speaker 3: Just some quick nuggets guys, before we get started.

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Speaker 4: Now, we have a two week sample size weeks one, two,

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Speaker 4: and three. Underdogs doing pretty well. They're covering at a

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Speaker 4: fifty six percent rate. Something else too that I think

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Speaker 4: we've come to find out. It reflects Jill's interception points

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Speaker 4: throughout the course of the year. Guys not playing in

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Speaker 4: the preseason offensive guys not playing in the preseason has

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Speaker 4: had an effect. Offensive coaches are seventeen and twenty one

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Speaker 4: against the spread. Last year there were nineteen games over

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Speaker 4: five hundred, so still plenty to go in the season.

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Speaker 3: But offense is as far as.

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Speaker 4: Coaching personnel, they have some catching up to do. So

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Speaker 4: just some things to consider, and we don't do many

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Speaker 4: totals on this podcast so far, but unders hitting at

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Speaker 4: a high rate twenty two to ten through two weeks.

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Speaker 4: So first up, let's go around the horn like we

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Speaker 4: usually do. If you're new to the show, we start

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Speaker 4: with a one sentence summary for this coming slate. So

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Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson get us started. How about a one sentence

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Speaker 4: summary for week three?

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Speaker 5: It's kitchen sink week. Teams that are winless in Week

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Speaker 5: three since twenty ten are forty five twenty nine and

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Speaker 5: one against the spread, covering sixty one percent backs against

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Speaker 5: the wall. They gotta go hired.

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Speaker 3: Okay, how about you, Joe Glan interception week?

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Speaker 2: Mainly just because right now there are six players I'm

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Speaker 2: seeing from a variety of different books that are at

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Speaker 2: plus odds again to throw interceptions, and they're just piling

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Speaker 2: up right now. So like, for example, Aaron Rodgers should

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Speaker 2: probably be around two to one to throw an interception

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Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay last time he played against them. Three

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Speaker 2: picks in that game. Not exactly a Pethora of wide

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Speaker 2: receivers to throw too, So I'd be considering that once

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Speaker 2: you could find that that prop available.

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Speaker 3: Love it.

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Speaker 4: How you're sticking with the picks, enjoy it?

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Speaker 3: Luke Swayin, how about yourself? One? That's right? One sentence

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Speaker 3: summary for week three.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just gonna be a lot of Bilo spots

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Speaker 1: on teams going into the season that we were higher

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Speaker 1: on than we thought coming back home after a difficult

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Speaker 1: Week one and two.

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Speaker 4: First best bet of the day will come from Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder, we have not consulted. These guys have

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Speaker 4: not consulted with one another before starting this recording, so

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Speaker 4: we could have some overlap.

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Speaker 3: We may not.

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Speaker 4: There could be some contradictions, there may not. So it's

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Speaker 4: every man for themselves here on this Best Bets episode. So,

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Speaker 4: without further ado, pick one Brandon Anderson for Week three?

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Speaker 2: What do you have?

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna start us out this week with the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Speaker 5: They are one of those kitchen sink teams zero and two,

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Speaker 5: just barely not off the Super Bowl loss, and suddenly

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Speaker 5: everyone's ready to jump off the bandwa again. For me,

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Speaker 5: that is the time to jump back on after Sunday,

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Speaker 5: We're getting big value here. Bengals are minus five at

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Speaker 5: the Jets. There's value on both sides here. The Jets

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Speaker 5: are a little overvalued. They have that big comeback against

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Speaker 5: the Browns late, so helping us forget just how rough

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Speaker 5: they've been so far. Last in the entire league in

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Speaker 5: defensive DVA through two weeks. The Bengals have the shot

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Speaker 5: loss of the Cowboys. We know teams come out hot

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Speaker 5: with their backup quarterback since Dandy dug a hole early

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Speaker 5: and almost got out of it but couldn't finish the job.

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Speaker 5: The Bengals are last in offensive DVA. That's not going

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Speaker 5: to last.

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Speaker 2: This is Joe.

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Speaker 5: Burrow jamar Chase T. Higgins. The best way to solve

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Speaker 5: struggles on offense, So play the worst defense in the league,

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Speaker 5: like the Jets have been so far. By the way

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Speaker 5: that bad Bengals O line, it's not going to be

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Speaker 5: quite as bad when they're not facing Micah Parsons and TJ. Watt.

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Speaker 5: The Jets are not quite the same sort of threat there. Actually,

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Speaker 5: the Jets O line might be a bigger problem here

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Speaker 5: with some of the injuries that they have, so I

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Speaker 5: think this line really should be above a touchdown. The

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Speaker 5: Bengals have covered when one sixteen of their last seventeen

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Speaker 5: wins so far, so Kitchen seeing spot sixty one percent

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Speaker 5: cover rate. Kitchen teams that made the playoffs are eleven

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Speaker 5: and six against the spread, covering by five point one

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Speaker 5: points a game. I'll take the Bengals as the favorite.

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Speaker 4: This own two star for the Bengals Super Bowl winner

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Speaker 4: or loser has not started going two since that Seahawks

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Speaker 4: team in fourteen fifteen, so it feels like a good

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Speaker 4: landing spot here for the Cincinnati Bengals. How about Luke

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Speaker 4: Vegas refund. What's your first pick for us for Week three?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the first one for me is going to

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Speaker 1: be the Commanders, which at the current moment is plus

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Speaker 1: six and a half. I would probably wait until Sunday

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Speaker 1: on this one. You might be able to get a seven,

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Speaker 1: which is a valuable key number obviously, where the look

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Speaker 1: ahead on this was Eagles minus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: and after the Commanders lost to the Lions on Sunday

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Speaker 1: and then the Eagles had probably one of the more

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Speaker 1: impressive performances on National TV on Monday, it's moved to

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Speaker 1: six and a half seven, which is just way too

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Speaker 1: big of.

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Speaker 5: A move for me.

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Speaker 1: Where the Eagles are coming off of not win on

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Speaker 1: a short week going to Washington. The Commander's defense has

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Speaker 1: been bad, but I do think it's due for some

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Speaker 1: positive regression. All they have to do is eliminate these

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Speaker 1: explosive plays that they keep allowing. Where the efficiency standpoint,

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Speaker 1: it's still tops in the league. Where their offensive showed

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Speaker 1: us that they can hang. It has been an explosive offense.

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Speaker 1: They have exceeded my expectations so far going the season

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Speaker 1: where the Eagles offense, obviously looking at Monday, is explosive.

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Speaker 1: Where I think this Commander's offense can hang with the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: We're at a divisional dog short week. I'll take the

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Speaker 1: Commanders plus six and a half.

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Speaker 4: Joe Gallant your first best bet for Week three.

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Speaker 2: All right, So I had to break the touchdown Cherry here.

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Speaker 2: I think this is what we needed here for the show.

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Speaker 2: But I am going to that Bengals Jets game that

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Speaker 2: Brandon referred to, but I'm actually going to be looking

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Speaker 2: at a Jets receiver to score this week again after

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Speaker 2: he had two in Week two. And that's Garrett Wilson

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Speaker 2: right now, sitting around plus two fifty at FanDuel. And

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Speaker 2: part of the reason why I'm really into Garrett Wilson

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Speaker 2: and his ascension into this offense is he has eight

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Speaker 2: red zone targets through two games three and week one

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Speaker 2: versus the Ravens, and I thought, you know, you look

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Speaker 2: at that eight number, you think, okay, he must have

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Speaker 2: got like all seven in week two. No, he actually

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Speaker 2: had three and Week one versus the Ravens five against

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Speaker 2: the Browns. Part of the reason why I think you're

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Speaker 2: getting a little bit more value on him is because

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Speaker 2: he only plays overall so far through two weeks sixty

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Speaker 2: one percent of the snaps, but in the red zone

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Speaker 2: that increases to the mid seventies. So if they get

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Speaker 2: to the red zone, I like his chances to score.

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Speaker 2: I know that a lot of fantasy analysts will you know,

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Speaker 2: tell you don't bail on Elijah Moore, and I agree

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Speaker 2: with them, but there is a chance that both of

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Speaker 2: them could score because really the Bengals they haven't been

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Speaker 2: very good at stopping the past, and that's facing guys

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Speaker 2: like Mitch Trubisky and the Lord and Savior Cooper Rush Like.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to be discouraged with Flacco throwing the ball,

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Speaker 2: even at his old age. I mean, one hundred and

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Speaker 2: three pass attempts in two games. Especially with the DVOA

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Speaker 2: being so low. With the Jets defense, They're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to throw the ball a lot, especially if their offensive

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Speaker 2: line is banged up, like Trubisky had thirty eight passes

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Speaker 2: in overtime against this Bengals team. Rusher Head around thirty one.

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Speaker 2: Another reason why I'm liking Wilson as well. He's tenth

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Speaker 2: in overall targets with twenty two. The reason why that's

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Speaker 2: important is if you look at the guys that are

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Speaker 2: ranked one through nine, that's like the Cooper Cups, Tyreek Hill,

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Speaker 2: Jalen Wattle, DeVante Adams, Jamar or Chase. All those guys

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Speaker 2: have plus twenty odds or lower to score in Week three.

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Speaker 2: So you're seeing Wilson's odds maybe as low as plus

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Speaker 2: one ninety at some books. So we're getting a little

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Speaker 2: bit of extra value here. I'm gonna try to make

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Speaker 2: sure and see if i can catch the tail end

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Speaker 2: of this comet known as Garrett Wilson.

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Speaker 4: Okay, moving on, let's go to best bet number two,

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Speaker 4: back to Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 5: I'm going back to another kitchen sink spot. I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: take the Carolina Panthers ZH and two at home catching

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Speaker 5: three points to the Saints. This is a great spot

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Speaker 5: for Carolina home team as a kitchen sink spot. So

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Speaker 5: oh and two team playing at home in a Vision

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Speaker 5: game fourteen to six and one against the spread, so

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Speaker 5: as a seventy percent cover rate, also a good trend

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Speaker 5: Panthers lost by less than seven last week. When we've

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Speaker 5: got a team that's oz and two that nearly won,

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Speaker 5: those teams are covering sixty four percent in the following week,

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Speaker 5: and when they're at home, they're actually winning eighteen and

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Speaker 5: twenty one straight up forty six percent ROI. So this

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Speaker 5: is a great spot for Carolina. I'm not even sure

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Speaker 5: that Carolina shouldn't be favored here the Panthers. So far,

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Speaker 5: if you look at DVOWA, Panthers are ahead of the

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Speaker 5: Saints on offense and defense and special teams. That's everything, guys.

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Speaker 5: So I think the Saints are living a little bit

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Speaker 5: off of some preseason expectations. So far, they haven't been

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Speaker 5: that great yet, and the Panthers may.

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Speaker 2: Be a little underrated.

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Speaker 5: They've been top six on both offense and defense on

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Speaker 5: early downs. This team might be decent and they're easy

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Speaker 5: just to overlook right now. Game has a low total

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Speaker 5: of forty and a half underdogs and low totals always

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Speaker 5: a positive trend, and Damos Winston as a favorite only

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Speaker 5: eight and nineteen and one against the spread only covers

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Speaker 5: thirty percent of the time. So this is a toss

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Speaker 5: up that maybe the Panthers are the better team. I

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Speaker 5: like Panthers plus three. I like the plus one thirty

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Speaker 5: nine money line til I'll play both of them.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: So you are saying the Panthers are going to end

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Speaker 4: their nine game losing streak against the spread.

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Speaker 5: I'm saying it, Well, let's go get some money.

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Speaker 4: Okay, love it very good. Also, Matt Rule, dude, if

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Speaker 4: you want to keep your job, like he's already been

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Speaker 4: connected to the Arizona state vacancy, even like Nebraska, like

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Speaker 4: this has been Matt Rule.

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Speaker 5: If you want to stay, this is kitchen sink and

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Speaker 5: bathroom sink and all the other sinks in Matt Rule's house.

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Speaker 2: It's now and everybody love it.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's go to Luke. What do you got for

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Speaker 3: his best bet? Number two?

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the Falcons plus one pick

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Speaker 1: them either or where. This really is just a fade

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Speaker 1: of the Seahawks again. I faded him last week. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna fait him again. Falcons are on the West coast again.

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Speaker 1: The last two defense fuckings have played or the Saints

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Speaker 1: in the Rams. So in terms of like quality of opponent,

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Speaker 1: this is a huge step down. Going to Seattle, where

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, they are the worst defense by far,

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Speaker 1: and the one strength of the Seahawks is going to

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Speaker 1: be the receivers, which if the Falcons have a strength

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Speaker 1: on defense, is going to be the corners. Mariotis played well,

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Speaker 1: hopefully we can get Kyle Pitts involved. Where the Falcons,

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Speaker 1: it's just a fade of the Seahawks.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the Falcons plus one ano. They're

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Speaker 5: one of those kitchen sing teams. We got three of

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Speaker 5: our five, now.

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Speaker 3: One will come through.

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Speaker 4: That is our hole here on this episode, as we

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Speaker 4: can tell already, Joe Gallant your second best bet.

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Speaker 2: Well, it sounds like Brandon and I are going to

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Speaker 2: be doubling down on the Panthers, but I'm going I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna be even more aggressive. I'm taking them Panthers money

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Speaker 2: line right now hovering around plus one thirty five to

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Speaker 2: plus one forty. So they crushed this team last year

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Speaker 2: as three point home dogs in Week two, and I

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Speaker 2: think it's telling that they hung the same line this

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Speaker 2: year despite the evidence that we've already seen. Now the

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Speaker 2: Panthers pretty scrappy through two games. They've lost both games

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Speaker 2: by combined five points. Like you could make up a

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Speaker 2: serious argument that they should be two and oero right

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Speaker 2: now and the Saints should be zero to two. The

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Speaker 2: Saints run defense, that was the strength of their defense,

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Speaker 2: hasn't really looked sharp yet, already given up forty more

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Speaker 2: yards per game this season fourteen total first downs from

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Speaker 2: the run. Just on that pace, that would rank near

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Speaker 2: close to the bottom five, bottom six of the NFL.

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Speaker 2: And how did the Panthers beat the Saints last year?

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Speaker 2: What they did is they got a ton of first

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Speaker 2: downs from the past, specifically to Christian McCaffrey, who wasn't

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Speaker 2: in that matchup when they played near the end of

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Speaker 2: the season last year. Four passing first downs in last

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Speaker 2: year's matchup, Marcus Lattimore was playing in that game, and

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Speaker 2: the Panthers they just match up well with the Saints,

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Speaker 2: and specifically wide receiver Dj Moore, who has just torched

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Speaker 2: them in his career last five games. In this matchup,

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Speaker 2: thirty one catches four hundred and fifty two yards and

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Speaker 2: five touchdowns. You could probably get him around plus one

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Speaker 2: sixty to plus one seventy to score a touchdown as well. Now,

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Speaker 2: jamis in his career being a box player and moving

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Speaker 2: over to the Saints, familiar playing in Carolina, two and

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Speaker 2: three as a starter, playing in Carolina in his career,

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Speaker 2: and he's lost the last two Saints or last two

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Speaker 2: games in Carolina with both the Saints and the Bucks,

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Speaker 2: and got a little bit of a back injury, might

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Speaker 2: be a little bit reluctant to maybe want to throw.

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Speaker 2: If they put the position in him where he has

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Speaker 2: to throw the ball, you could see a lot more picks.

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Speaker 2: You could see the same old jamis. So I'm taking

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Speaker 2: Panthers money line to take down the Saints and get

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Speaker 2: their first win of the season.

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Speaker 4: How about best bet number three? As we move along,

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Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson, what do.

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Speaker 5: You got, I'm going with the Rams minus three and

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Speaker 5: a half in Arizona. No kitchen sync here. This one

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Speaker 5: is all about coaching for me. Anytime I can take

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Speaker 5: a chance to fade Cliff Kingsbury against what I consider

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Speaker 5: a great coach, I'm always taking that swing. Sean McVay

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Speaker 5: in his career five to one and one against the

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Speaker 5: spread versus Kingsbury six and one straight up. Those six

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Speaker 5: wins by fourteen point two points a game, every one

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Speaker 5: of them by Lisa touchdown, and even the two by

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Speaker 5: a touchdown. Those were backdoor touchdowns. They have never been

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Speaker 5: close in those wins, so this is a huge coaching mismatch.

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Speaker 5: McVeigh has Kingsbury's number, and we're getting some value again

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Speaker 5: on the number here. The Cardinals were awful for seven

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Speaker 5: quarters before Kyler Murray magic stole a win, and that's

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Speaker 5: our last taste there. The Rams were up twenty eight

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Speaker 5: three on Atlanta last week and then took their foot

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Speaker 5: off the gas. So if those games had ended after

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Speaker 5: three quarters, I think this line might have been close

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Speaker 5: to a touchdown. Instead, we got that extra a little

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Speaker 5: bit of data. We're still getting some value here. The

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Speaker 5: Cardinals have been bad on defense and their offensive line

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Speaker 5: isn't good. Well, we got Aaron Donald against a bad line.

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Speaker 5: We got Cooper Cup against a bad secondary. I love

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Speaker 5: the spot for the Rams minus three and a half.

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Speaker 3: Luke swayin last best bet.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the Broncos plus one and

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Speaker 1: a half on Sunday Night Football. The perception of the

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Speaker 1: Niners couldn't be high right now with Jimmy g which

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Speaker 1: I agree, they're definitely a better team with him, But

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Speaker 1: if you look back to Sunday's game like he played okay,

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Speaker 1: Like I wouldn't say he played like phenomenal against the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks defense. I just went over about how bad they are,

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Speaker 1: and then they're going to Denver in the elevation, which

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Speaker 1: is actually a thing early on in the season for

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Speaker 1: a team that the perception of them couldn't be lower

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Speaker 1: for their offense. Where between the twenties the Denver offense

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Speaker 1: has actually beneficient. It's when they get into the red

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Speaker 1: zone where I wouldn't say they're bad. In the red zone.

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Speaker 3: There are a lot of outlier type plays.

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Speaker 1: Like fumbles, penalties, guys stepping out of bounds that really

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Speaker 1: could have changed like how they've done inside the twenties.

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Speaker 1: So in terms of like positive regression, I totally see

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Speaker 1: it for the Broncos offense. And at the same time,

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Speaker 1: just people were too high on the Niners of Jimmy G.

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Speaker 1: I think it opened at Broncos minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half and now which Broncos plus one and a half,

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Speaker 1: which is ridiculous to me. I'll take an offense wanted

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Speaker 1: to prove something on Prime time with Russell Wilson against

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Speaker 1: a Jimmy G Niners team that I just think is

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Speaker 1: being overrated in a very showing amount of time.

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Speaker 4: As we sit here now and record this podcast, ninety

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Speaker 4: one percent of the money on this game is coming

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Speaker 4: in on San Francisco. Brandon, I'll go to you because

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Speaker 4: you use the term kitchen sink and you're hope this

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Speaker 4: kind of feels like a kitchen sink game for Denver too,

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Speaker 4: even though they're one in one.

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Speaker 2: It does.

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Speaker 5: It's a weird spotted. It feels like a kitchen sink

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Speaker 5: spot for Nathaniel Hackett in some way. Yeah, the man

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Speaker 5: is getting embarrassed on national television, just struggling to figure

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Speaker 5: out how do I call my timeouts? When do I

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Speaker 5: get the play call in? Are we punting? Are we

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Speaker 5: kicking the field goal? So for me, I'm staying away

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Speaker 5: from that one, just because I don't know if I

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Speaker 5: trust Hackett yet. He you know, they brought him over

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Speaker 5: from Green Bay. I wondered, were they just trying to

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Speaker 5: dangle a little carrot and bring Aaron Rodgers with him too?

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Speaker 5: And I wonder if anyone else in that locker room

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Speaker 5: might be wondering about that at this point. So Hackett,

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Speaker 5: it's a little to early, only two weeks in but

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Speaker 5: I think it's a hacke at kitchen scene spot. I

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Speaker 5: don't know if coaches can do kitchen sinks though, so

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Speaker 5: we will see how that one plays out national television.

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Speaker 5: If he gets another bad one, it could be a

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Speaker 5: big conversation.

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Speaker 1: Broncos offense has been poor, but I really do think

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Speaker 1: at the same time, the Broncos offense being poor has

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Speaker 1: overshadowed how good their defense has been last six quarters.

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Speaker 1: I think they've given up nine points and I know

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Speaker 1: it was against the Texans and the Seahawks, but at

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Speaker 1: the same time they might be uncertained and judy, which

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Speaker 1: could be the line of but like those two guys

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Speaker 1: potentially being out don't really change my mind. And hacking

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Speaker 1: on primetime TV might be poor, But can we talk

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Speaker 1: about Jimmy g on primetime mutch situations like.

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Speaker 2: It's not very good?

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Speaker 3: Fascinating game.

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Speaker 4: Fascinating game, And stay tuned for our Monday episode here

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Speaker 4: in the Action Network podcast because that will be the

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Speaker 4: game that we probably react to first when we go

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Speaker 4: live Sunday night for the Monday Moe a pod that

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Speaker 4: COEs live Joe Galant take us home your third best bet?

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Speaker 2: Sure, so this is Chiefs Colts natural kitchen sink game.

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Speaker 2: And part of the reason I was initially looking at

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Speaker 2: the spread because I said on the look Ahead Pod,

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Speaker 2: I thought the spread was only gonna go up, and

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Speaker 2: instead we're seeing reverse line movement right now, despite the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs taking majority of bets in hand, at least by

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Speaker 2: what sportsbooks are reporting. But I think again, part of

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Speaker 2: the kitchen sink angle, or maybe the Blagio Fountain, whatever

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Speaker 2: water analogy you want to use, it's coming for the

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Speaker 2: Colts because they got to bring it every offensive trick

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Speaker 2: in the book. If they're gonna want to stay with

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs, you know you're gonna see flee, flickors, play action, rpo, trick,

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Speaker 2: plays on special teams. Frank right, the playbook is wide open, man,

399
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Speaker 2: because you can't settle for field goals against this team.

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Speaker 2: So I like the over fifty and a half in

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00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 2: this game, especially after only scoring twenty points combined through

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Speaker 2: two games. Now, despite this week two just debacle by

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00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 2: the Colts, they still rank near the top of the

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00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,440
Speaker 2: league for rushing, first down and rushing yards, So I

405
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,360
Speaker 2: think you're gonna see like that twenty to twenty five

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00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 2: carry range for Jonathan Taylor. That's gonna just from a

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00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 2: projection standpoint, that's going to probably a point to at

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Speaker 2: least fourteen to seventeen points for the Colts in that spot.

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Speaker 2: But the Chiefs passing offense, and this has been the

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Speaker 2: Colts issue since the start of last year, and you're

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Speaker 2: seeing it through the first two weeks of the season.

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Speaker 2: They're allowing too many passing touchdowns and they were doing

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Speaker 2: it to Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. Like, imagine, now,

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen when you have Patrick Mahomes from

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00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 2: that offense coming through. They're really not getting that much

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00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,399
Speaker 2: pressure from their defensive line, which was their bread and butter,

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00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 2: only three sacks through two games against those deep against

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Speaker 2: those offenses, where they were third in the NFL last

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00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 2: year in that stat And then from some trend standpoints,

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Speaker 2: if you're just looking at that angle for this total

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Speaker 2: and fourteen games last year involving the Chiefs when the

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Speaker 2: total was fifty or more, the over was nine and

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00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 2: five average combined score of fifty four points seven points

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00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,479
Speaker 2: per game, and even the games that went under, they

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00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: had totals like some of those totals in those games

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Speaker 2: last year closed up like fifty nine and like fifty five,

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Speaker 2: they still got to around fifty one to fifty two points,

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Speaker 2: but they showed up as an under on the overall record.

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Speaker 2: And then of course the last five Chiefs road games,

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Speaker 2: those have all gone over over is eight and two

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Speaker 2: in the last ten Chiefs games overall. So for me,

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Speaker 2: I just know that the Colts are gonna want to

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Speaker 2: do everything they can to put up at least twenty

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Speaker 2: five to thirty points. I'm just not sure if it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be enough to outscore this Chiefs offense. So instead

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Speaker 2: of trying to play the all which team is gonna

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00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,199
Speaker 2: show up here on Sunday, I think we just expect

438
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,479
Speaker 2: a lot of points over fifty and a half is

439
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 2: one of my favorite bets this weekend for Chiefs Colts.

440
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 4: Okay, before we wrap the show, we're gonna take a

441
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 4: very quick look at next week's lines for NFL Week

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00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,639
Speaker 4: four and see if we like any numbers now before

443
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 4: they adjust for Sunday's action. Brandon one of your specialities here,

444
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 4: what do you like for week four? And by the way,

445
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 4: he nailed the Chiefs minus two and a half against

446
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 4: the Chargers a week ago on that and uh, you're

447
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 4: also we'll see how it goes this week with Cincinnati.

448
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 4: You were hopped on that one at four and a half.

449
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 4: That's moved to six on FanDuel Sportsbook. What do you

450
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 4: got for us for Week four?

451
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 5: We're going to London. We get our first London game

452
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,640
Speaker 5: of the year next Sunday, So Sunday morning, wake up

453
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 5: early for Vikings Saints. Probably a good one. Actually, we

454
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 5: don't get too many good ones in London.

455
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 2: So we talked.

456
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 5: Jill and I both said earlier we like the Saints

457
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 5: to lose this week, even as favorites. So if the

458
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 5: Saints lose to the Panthers, that kitchen sink spot for them.

459
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 5: Don't forget Jamis has the injury he's struggling through, Alvin

460
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 5: Kamara is still hurt, that O line is struggling, The

461
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 5: Saints could look bad. Meanwhile, the Vikings are a classic

462
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 5: BILO spot right now, and you can't necessarily bilo against

463
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 5: the Lions. You'll see we none of us took that game,

464
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 5: but the Vikings are big favorites against the Lions, and.

465
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 2: They looked great after Week one.

466
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 5: Everyone's jumped off the bandwagon after the Monday night game.

467
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 5: But if the Vikings beat the Lions, as the books

468
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 5: expect them to, suddenly Minnesota looks good again. The Saints

469
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 5: maybe look a little worse. We have a neutral field.

470
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 5: This is not a New Orleans home game here, This

471
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,719
Speaker 5: is Vikings by one. I think we easily could get

472
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 5: to something past the key number there. So you want

473
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 5: to jump on this now at basically a money line pick,

474
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 5: Then here's a wild stat that I found. We know

475
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 5: that in London. London is the home away from home

476
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 5: for our lovely Jacksonville Jaguars. Right, that's where Jacksonville loves

477
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 5: to play take away Jacksonville games. We've got ten other

478
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,959
Speaker 5: games on those Sunday morning spots. Favorites are seven to

479
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 5: three against the spread by seven point one points a game,

480
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 5: and favorites are undefeated. In those London games. They are

481
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 5: nine to zero and one straight up. The Vikings are

482
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 5: the favorite. They will probably be more of a favorite

483
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 5: after the games on Sunday. Get that pick in before

484
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 5: the games.

485
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 3: And should that play out?

486
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 4: Right now on the FanDuel sportsbook, Vikings are minus one

487
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 4: to eighteen on the money line, Saints at plus one hundred.

488
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 4: You'd have to think that climbs into the one thirty

489
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 4: maybe even the one forty range if those results that

490
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 4: Brandon just let out come to fruition.

491
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 3: Okay, so let's recap our best bets. Each of you

492
00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 3: have three. Brandon Anderson, you fir.

493
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 5: I got Bengals to cover on the road as big favorites,

494
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 5: Panthers plus three at home two kitchen sink spots, and

495
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 5: then Rams minus three and a half.

496
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 1: Vegas refund, Luke Swayin, I got Commanders plus six and

497
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 1: a half. I got the Falcons plus one and the

498
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: Broncos on Sunday night at plus one and a half.

499
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 3: And Jill Gallant, I.

500
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 2: Got Garrett Wilson with the New York Jets to continue

501
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 2: his rise to startup score a touchdown against the Bengals

502
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 2: at plus two fifty plus two to sixty. I'm gonna

503
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 2: be taking the over fifty and a half between the

504
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Colts, and finally Panthers money line versus

505
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 2: the Saints.

506
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 4: All right, gents, that's gonna do it for this Action

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00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 4: Network podcast episode our NFL Week three best bets. My

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00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 4: thanks to Brandon Anderson, Jill Gallant, and Luke Swayne Vegas

509
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 4: refund for joining us today. I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen.

510
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 3: Best of what with all of your bets this weekend.

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Speaker 4: We will see you again Monday morning, right after Denver

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00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 4: and San Francisco duel. We'll get you set for the

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Speaker 4: following week with our recap show right here on the

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Speaker 4: Action Network podcast