1
00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 1: War in the Ukraine and the Middle East, inflation spikes

2
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:11,280
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty and twenty one. What is the financial

3
00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:15,240
Speaker 1: impact of global conflict and rising prices?

4
00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,799
Speaker 2: The answer might surprise you.

5
00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:28,840
Speaker 1: And I'm I'm Barry Ridults, and on today's edition of

6
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,840
Speaker 1: At the Money, we're going to discuss whether war and

7
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:37,560
Speaker 1: inflation somehow adds up to higher portfolio prices. To help

8
00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:39,400
Speaker 1: us unpack all of this and what it means for

9
00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,400
Speaker 1: your investments, let's bring in Jeff Hirsh. Not only is

10
00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,839
Speaker 1: he the editor in chief of this stock Trader's Almanac,

11
00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:50,519
Speaker 1: he is the author of the twenty eleven book super Boom,

12
00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:53,680
Speaker 1: Why the Dow Jones will hit thirty eight eight twenty

13
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 1: and How you Can Profit from It. Full disclosure, I

14
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,880
Speaker 1: was privileged to write the forward to that book, and

15
00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 1: I have been delighted to see it more or less

16
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,200
Speaker 1: come true. So let's start with your dad, Yale Hirsh,

17
00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,480
Speaker 1: who founded the stock traders Amanac sixty years ago. In

18
00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy six, he predicted a fifteen year super boom,

19
00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,920
Speaker 1: a five hundred percent move in the stock market. At

20
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,520
Speaker 1: the time, it wasn't especially well received. In fact, it

21
00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:28,119
Speaker 1: was fairly widely mocked. But not only did he turn

22
00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,720
Speaker 1: out to be right. By two thousand, the move was

23
00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:37,640
Speaker 1: one thousand percent. Explain your dad's thinking about how war

24
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,600
Speaker 1: plus inflation equals a stock bull market.

25
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,640
Speaker 3: Well, I was a wee lad back then, but I

26
00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,119
Speaker 3: remember the T shirts that now thirty four to twenty

27
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,800
Speaker 3: T shirts. I still have a box of mediums in

28
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,400
Speaker 3: the past, but my kids can wear it, but not me.

29
00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,920
Speaker 3: So coming off the the you know, generational low in

30
00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,000
Speaker 3: nineteen seventy four that everyone knows, which.

31
00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 1: Was seventy three to seventy four band market was as

32
00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:04,520
Speaker 1: vicious as the financial.

33
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,960
Speaker 3: As seven awight, as vicious, and perhaps more so because

34
00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:09,359
Speaker 3: it was a little bit fresher.

35
00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:09,600
Speaker 1: It was.

36
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:10,240
Speaker 4: It was a little bit.

37
00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,120
Speaker 1: It was also in the middle of a long bear

38
00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,560
Speaker 1: market as opposed to coming off of market highs.

39
00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,400
Speaker 3: True, we had been coming down for a few years,

40
00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,960
Speaker 3: but in sixty six or sixty eight, depending upon where

41
00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,560
Speaker 3: you went to. Yeah, yeah, But what he observed looking

42
00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,320
Speaker 3: at at history long history, being a student of the

43
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 3: four year cycle for year president election cycle and the

44
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,720
Speaker 3: decentil patterns, and having you know, written the almanac for

45
00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 3: several years, and just being an avid researcher. He's discovered

46
00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:46,040
Speaker 3: that after war and you know, we're in the Vietnam War.

47
00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 4: We were just coming out.

48
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,040
Speaker 3: We had the April seventy five coming out of you know, Saigon,

49
00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,679
Speaker 3: that horrific you know, steamed with the helicopters over the

50
00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,880
Speaker 3: end of remembers, and we had, you know, the oil

51
00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:59,600
Speaker 3: embargo which you and I probably both remember, the odd

52
00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,720
Speaker 3: and even, And what he observed was that after these

53
00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:07,639
Speaker 3: previous big you know, international conflagrations war World War One

54
00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,880
Speaker 3: and World War Two, that after this this war period,

55
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,320
Speaker 3: there was inflation stimulated by government spending, and then after

56
00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 3: the inflation leveled off, the market went into this rally

57
00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,880
Speaker 3: of five hundred percent or more following war excision.

58
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,079
Speaker 1: That's more than a rally, that's a full blown bull market,

59
00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:30,080
Speaker 1: five hundred secular. So I'm glad you use that term

60
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,440
Speaker 1: to different than a shorter term cyclical market within a

61
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:38,000
Speaker 1: longer term secular. So what were the numbers like after

62
00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 1: World War One and after World War Two?

63
00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 3: The numbers it was about just around five hundred and

64
00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,360
Speaker 3: seventeen five twenty one right in the just over five hundred.

65
00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 2: Percent both following both wars.

66
00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:55,080
Speaker 3: Following both wars unbeknownst to him, after the Vietnam War

67
00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:57,720
Speaker 3: and the inflation that came from you know that.

68
00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:01,200
Speaker 2: That vol fargo and all rest and all the rest.

69
00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,680
Speaker 3: It ended up being the better part of fifteen hundred

70
00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:05,720
Speaker 3: and two thousand percent going all the way up to

71
00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,600
Speaker 3: the top in neither ninety eight or two thousand if

72
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 3: you want to measure it to there. His forecast, his

73
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,560
Speaker 3: prediction was for dow thirty four to twenty by nineteen ninety.

74
00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,680
Speaker 2: That was five hundred percent from from the beguits.

75
00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:21,479
Speaker 3: From the inchry day low of the Dow on December sixth,

76
00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:27,280
Speaker 3: of memory serves, nineteen seventy four. And the Dow didn't

77
00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,119
Speaker 3: actually hit that number until it was July of nineteen

78
00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,280
Speaker 3: ninety two. But the SMP had the five hundred percent

79
00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,360
Speaker 3: move and like that it was May of ninety ten.

80
00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,880
Speaker 2: And that's really the more important July.

81
00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:38,640
Speaker 4: Nineteen ninety It did it in nineteen ninety.

82
00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,080
Speaker 3: So, you know, I remember when you and I were,

83
00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:44,640
Speaker 3: you know, talking about the forward, and I had showed

84
00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 3: you the old you know, newsletters that he that he

85
00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,320
Speaker 3: put up called smart money back then. And in January

86
00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,240
Speaker 3: seventy seven he put out a special report called invitation

87
00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,000
Speaker 3: to a super boom, which was you know, taking all

88
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:57,960
Speaker 3: of the research that had been done and the articles

89
00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,240
Speaker 3: that were written throughout seventy six and putting in together

90
00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,359
Speaker 3: a little package to you know, give to subscribers and

91
00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,719
Speaker 3: to promote what he was talking about there, and we

92
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 3: put those pictures in there. You know, he's got some

93
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,480
Speaker 3: hand drained lines on the old you know overhead projector

94
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:16,480
Speaker 3: you know, transparency. And then you know, as we were

95
00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:20,640
Speaker 3: going through the financial crisis seven o eight, also looking

96
00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,800
Speaker 3: back to the the two nine to eleven situation and

97
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,160
Speaker 3: then go into Afghanistan and all that stuff. Looking at that,

98
00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,120
Speaker 3: we were tracking this this you know, long secular bear

99
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:34,920
Speaker 3: market pattern, and you know, after the bottom in nine,

100
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,600
Speaker 3: you know, we're looking at things in early twenty ten,

101
00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:39,400
Speaker 3: we're saying this is setting up again.

102
00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,760
Speaker 1: Coming out of the financial crisis of fifty six percent

103
00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 1: peak to trough sell off. You're looking at what just

104
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,280
Speaker 1: took place. We've been in Afghanistan really soon after nine

105
00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,800
Speaker 1: to eleven, it's almost a decade. And then around the

106
00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,560
Speaker 1: same time, we've been in Iraq for about seven years.

107
00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,719
Speaker 1: We had a bout of inflation in seven eighth nine.

108
00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,720
Speaker 1: What are you thinking when you look out over the

109
00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:10,000
Speaker 1: next fifteen years. From the perspective of twenty ten, twenty eleven, we.

110
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,599
Speaker 3: Weren't looking out initially fifteen years. What we were witnessing.

111
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,080
Speaker 3: What we were observing was a similar chart pattern.

112
00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:17,760
Speaker 4: It was. It was chart pattern recognition.

113
00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:19,960
Speaker 3: Looking at the image that you know you've seen in

114
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,520
Speaker 3: the book of Yale's chart and seeing the same thing.

115
00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,120
Speaker 1: That's one hundred year chart that shows you war inflation

116
00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:26,800
Speaker 1: and several five hundred percent.

117
00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:28,800
Speaker 3: I think I think Josh called it, you know, the

118
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,200
Speaker 3: greatest chart you know he's ever seen, or ever was

119
00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 3: something like on Earth or something like that at one point.

120
00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,080
Speaker 3: But it's it's a log scale, so you can see,

121
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,000
Speaker 3: you know, the moves relative of the different time frames.

122
00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,359
Speaker 3: But looking at that, you could see it setting up

123
00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,120
Speaker 3: again coming off the the nine bottom. We just you know,

124
00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:49,080
Speaker 3: crunched numbers, did research, went back and you know, read

125
00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,320
Speaker 3: all the old stuff that he wrote, went through the

126
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 3: old almanacs, and we're like, this is happening again.

127
00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:55,800
Speaker 1: So let's let's take this apart and see if we

128
00:06:55,839 --> 00:07:00,400
Speaker 1: can rationalize why this might happen. In the past, governments

129
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,640
Speaker 1: have talked about the peace diven end when the Berlin

130
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,320
Speaker 1: Wall came down as an example. The shift of government

131
00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:11,360
Speaker 1: spending from the military and the Pentagon to civilian usage.

132
00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:13,720
Speaker 1: Is that part of the thinking behind this.

133
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,120
Speaker 3: It does play a part, you know in there, but

134
00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 3: the spending from the war, and I think this time

135
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 3: around the COVID spending is similar.

136
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,240
Speaker 4: It's government spending period.

137
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 3: It just puts a lot of money into the economy,

138
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:31,640
Speaker 3: enables a lot of development.

139
00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,440
Speaker 1: You're totally anticipating my next question, which which is how

140
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:41,440
Speaker 1: parallel is the war on COVID, the pandemic, lockdown, pent up, demand,

141
00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:46,160
Speaker 1: terrible sentiment, carestacked one was ten percent of GDP. We've

142
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,960
Speaker 1: spent four depending on whose numbers you rely on, four

143
00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,400
Speaker 1: or five, six trillion dollars inane and then we have

144
00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:56,560
Speaker 1: a giant nine to ten percent spike in inflation COVID

145
00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:57,400
Speaker 1: plus inflation.

146
00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,240
Speaker 2: How parallel is this to what so.

147
00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,440
Speaker 1: Following World War one, World War two, and Iraq in Afghanistan.

148
00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,560
Speaker 4: I think it's it's incredibly parallel.

149
00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 3: One of the things that that the current cycle didn't

150
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:14,640
Speaker 3: have from the previous cycles was the inflation we had very.

151
00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 1: Long, like a little bit during the very Lember, oil

152
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,120
Speaker 1: ran up to one hundred and fifty barrels and meat,

153
00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:23,680
Speaker 1: but it didn't milk got crazy expenses, but it didn't.

154
00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,640
Speaker 3: Come through to the you know, the regular CPI, you know,

155
00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:28,160
Speaker 3: minus food and energy.

156
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:32,800
Speaker 1: Because housing appeared to be disastrous, so that was why it.

157
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:35,840
Speaker 1: By the way, there's a crazy thing about owner's equivalent

158
00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,840
Speaker 1: rent that when real estate prices go up, depending on

159
00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:44,160
Speaker 1: the circumstances, sometimes OEER goes down dramatically, especially when rates

160
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 1: are low, and they'll give anybody a mortgage.

161
00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,800
Speaker 3: So CPI, which happened back in COVID. Who didn't refinance

162
00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:51,760
Speaker 3: the US government?

163
00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:53,720
Speaker 4: Right? We all the rest of us did.

164
00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:55,040
Speaker 2: That's exactly right.

165
00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:59,479
Speaker 1: So how much of this is sort of like a wartime?

166
00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,800
Speaker 1: You know, there was rationing, there's supply chain issues, there's

167
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,040
Speaker 1: a ton of pent up demands and a lot of

168
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,520
Speaker 1: negative sentiment, and then when.

169
00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:12,160
Speaker 2: The dam breaks, it seems like everybody goes crazy.

170
00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,280
Speaker 3: It's so parallel to me. I could not have imagined

171
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,920
Speaker 3: COVID back in twenty ten when I first made this forecast,

172
00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:24,040
Speaker 3: we were thinking only you know, large military involvement overseas.

173
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,160
Speaker 3: It's going to take a lot of spending, and you know,

174
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,440
Speaker 3: when that's over, we'll get that relief rally. The other

175
00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,120
Speaker 3: thing that I add to the equation that you know,

176
00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:36,920
Speaker 3: I my father didn't articulate as clearly, but having you know,

177
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,880
Speaker 3: the benefit of hindsight standing on his shoulders, you know,

178
00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:44,320
Speaker 3: the equation the war plus inflation equals super boom or

179
00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,400
Speaker 3: bull market. As you you know you've put it, is

180
00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 3: technology and something I the phrase that I came up

181
00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:57,480
Speaker 3: with culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology, which you know, indoor plumbing,

182
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 3: the automobile, airc conditioning, air travel, the microprocessor, the internet,

183
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,840
Speaker 3: you know, all the global So it's not just biotechnology,

184
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 3: energy whatever, now AI and now AI and exactly, it's

185
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,920
Speaker 3: not just one thing. It's a it's a cocktail of

186
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,920
Speaker 3: different technologies that drive productivity and the next boom, the

187
00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,760
Speaker 3: next boom and new developments. And I think that's where

188
00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:25,840
Speaker 3: we're at right now. I'm so glad you said that.

189
00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,360
Speaker 3: Whenever I try and explain to people the difference between

190
00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:34,400
Speaker 3: a secular expansion, a secularble market, and a cyclical I

191
00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,480
Speaker 3: always go back to your dad's post World War two chart.

192
00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,720
Speaker 3: And I like to tell people, you know, when World

193
00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,920
Speaker 3: War Two ended, forty two million GI's return home. They

194
00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,120
Speaker 3: have the GI bill that puts them through college.

195
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:49,960
Speaker 4: That's where he got his degree. In the GENI bill.

196
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,720
Speaker 1: You have the expansion of suburb you're the rise of

197
00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,480
Speaker 1: the automative internet culture, the interstate highway system, interstate highway system,

198
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,640
Speaker 1: the rise of civilian air travel, the rise of the

199
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:08,280
Speaker 1: elect tronic industry which we don't think about anymore, television, radio, dishwashers,

200
00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,400
Speaker 1: washing machines that didn't exist before the war, and any

201
00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,600
Speaker 1: at least not any And you combine all those things,

202
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:19,400
Speaker 1: you have a twenty year economic expansion plus the baby

203
00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:20,559
Speaker 1: boom on top of it.

204
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:22,800
Speaker 2: What a great time to be an investor.

205
00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 4: And then after go ahead.

206
00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:25,599
Speaker 1: Now and then the last thing I was going to

207
00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:31,040
Speaker 1: say is today centiment is very negative. Social media is

208
00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:36,599
Speaker 1: a cancer. Social media is a cancer on us. What

209
00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:41,320
Speaker 1: regular media does a terrible job covering the economy.

210
00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,120
Speaker 4: That they are trying to compete with social to get

211
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:44,560
Speaker 4: And the question.

212
00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,439
Speaker 1: I always like to ask people whenever we see political

213
00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,840
Speaker 1: polling is who the hell is answering the landline at

214
00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:55,360
Speaker 1: home except cranky old grandpa who just watched Fox News?

215
00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 1: And is youll at the kids get off.

216
00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:57,800
Speaker 2: Who are voting for it?

217
00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,040
Speaker 4: They all talk goodbye?

218
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,920
Speaker 1: Like, I hate those that sort of stuff. But it

219
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:07,240
Speaker 1: leads to a fascinating question, which is people might be unhappy,

220
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,960
Speaker 1: but you have a massive technological boom, a ton of

221
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:16,959
Speaker 1: fiscal spending and an enormous amount of corporate productivity and

222
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:22,079
Speaker 1: very low debt. What's might we be looking at another

223
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,800
Speaker 1: super boom. We're in it, We're in it, We're already

224
00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:26,960
Speaker 1: in What inning is this?

225
00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:29,960
Speaker 3: You know what it's It's hard to tell. We're at

226
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,920
Speaker 3: least in the middle of it. We could be getting

227
00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,360
Speaker 3: towards the end of it, at least for this for

228
00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,000
Speaker 3: this cycle. You remember after the nifty to fifty in

229
00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:42,120
Speaker 3: the late sixties, right, there was this secular bear market

230
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:43,920
Speaker 3: ahead of the oil on bargo.

231
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,280
Speaker 2: I use sixty six to eighty two is my phrase,

232
00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:47,360
Speaker 2: as my range.

233
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,960
Speaker 1: Some people look at sixty eight works, but it's like

234
00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:51,760
Speaker 1: fifteen plus minus years.

235
00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 4: Which is hissing.

236
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,880
Speaker 3: The ultimate low was seventy four, right, But everyone says

237
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:56,880
Speaker 3: that on nine was the beginning of the.

238
00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,520
Speaker 2: Of the It's absolutely nottely.

239
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,360
Speaker 4: I think twenty sixteen was that little bear mark.

240
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,320
Speaker 1: Twenty thirteen we said a new high in the SMP

241
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:04,439
Speaker 1: going back to a one. That's the start of the

242
00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:05,520
Speaker 1: new bull market for me.

243
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,640
Speaker 3: Or somewhere in the thirteen to sixteen period where we

244
00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,920
Speaker 3: had that little tiny mini bear market from fifteen to

245
00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:13,679
Speaker 3: February twenty sixteen.

246
00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:18,719
Speaker 1: Net barely down eighteen nineteen seventy eighteen, nineteen point nine.

247
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,439
Speaker 1: Either way, it's such a normal pullback.

248
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,120
Speaker 2: The twenty percent number is meaningless.

249
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:27,000
Speaker 1: But I'm starting to think where we're like fifth inning,

250
00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 1: sixth dinning.

251
00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:29,200
Speaker 4: Maybe even a little bit further up there.

252
00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 3: I think by the time we get into twenty five

253
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,880
Speaker 3: twenty six, we could start looking at, uh, you know,

254
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:37,559
Speaker 3: another stock pickers sideways trading market for for many years

255
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,600
Speaker 3: to come, or at least you know, a handful. The

256
00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,400
Speaker 3: thing with these cycles, you know, people have what you said,

257
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:44,240
Speaker 3: sixty six to eighty two. People want to look at

258
00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,960
Speaker 3: this eighteen year cycle, seventeen and a half recycle.

259
00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:47,720
Speaker 4: It's more.

260
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:50,200
Speaker 3: And the thing that we pointed out on this chart

261
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,960
Speaker 3: is that it's impacted by events like the bull market

262
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,560
Speaker 3: after World War Two was short. It was it was

263
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,440
Speaker 3: eight years, the Roaring twenties, Okay, then you had you know,

264
00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,400
Speaker 3: the World War one, sorry correction, thank you, world War one,

265
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:05,199
Speaker 3: and then the depression and the whole secular bear market

266
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,080
Speaker 3: before you know, we're worked. It was twenty five years. Okay,

267
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,880
Speaker 3: So these things aren't necessarily the same timeframe. We could

268
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,120
Speaker 3: have a secular bear market, you know, after this we

269
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:16,880
Speaker 3: get them the super boom level or a little bit

270
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:18,800
Speaker 3: past it, you know. For it could be a few years.

271
00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,120
Speaker 3: It could be five, six, seven, eight, It could be

272
00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 3: you know, fifteen twenty. We have to see what I

273
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 3: think it will be. On the shorter end of things.

274
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,360
Speaker 3: I think all these cycles have compressed with the productivity,

275
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,880
Speaker 3: and we're going to get more compression with AI and

276
00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,960
Speaker 3: all the technology. So I don't think it's going to

277
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 3: be a super long depression, despite some of the real

278
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:39,840
Speaker 3: you know, pollyannas out there.

279
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:46,280
Speaker 1: So to wrap up, there's an incalculable and terrible cost

280
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,119
Speaker 1: of war in lost lives and physical and emotional injuries.

281
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:55,239
Speaker 1: Global conflicts and war just exert a horrific cost on society.

282
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 1: Analysts who've studied this have found that the joys of

283
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 1: peace when war ends go beyond the relief of ending

284
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:08,400
Speaker 1: human suffering. Peace often leads to strong economic growth and

285
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 1: large subsequent gains in stock markets. I'm Barry Results, and

286
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:28,560
Speaker 1: you've been listening to Bloomberg's At the Money