1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,319 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 3 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 1: roun Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 5 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 2: Good to see you. 6 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power. 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we have news the 8 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 3: President leaving the bubble today on his way to Florida 9 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 3: to raise money and making news, saying that he holds 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 3: Iran responsible in the recent deadly attack on US troops 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 3: in Jordan. Of course, people for the last forty eight 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 3: hours have been asking what will the response be. He says, 13 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 3: Iran is responsible quote in the sense they're supplying the 14 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 3: weapons unquote. To sort of unpack what he may have 15 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 3: meant by that, we're parsing words at this point. Before 16 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 3: we talk to Michael Knights, we bring in Jordan Fabian 17 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 3: from Bloomberg's White House Team. Jordan, it's good to see you. 18 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 3: Every word matters in a tense situation like this. Much 19 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 3: has been said about the options facing the president. He 20 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 3: also went so far as to indicate as Bloomberg is 21 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 3: now reporting that he's made up his mind. 22 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: Do we have any sense of what it is? 23 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 4: Well, Joe, it appears there's going to be some retaliation militarily, 24 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 4: whether that is against Iran itself or a proxy group, 25 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 4: whether they're targeting personnel or weapons, as Joe Biden mentioned 26 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 4: in that gaggle, remains to be seen. And these are 27 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 4: the tough questions that he has to make in deciding 28 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 4: how the US will respond, because of course there are 29 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 4: major consequences whatever way he decides. 30 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: I wonder if he intended to say that. Maybe that 31 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 3: was all by design, but it sure seemed like the 32 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 3: administration spent the weekend and Monday going out of its 33 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 3: way to say, we do not want a wider war Jordan. 34 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 3: We're not seeking war or a military conflict with Iran. 35 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 3: But when you say something like that in the driveway 36 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: makes you wonder. 37 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 4: Right, So that would suggest, I mean, and he did 38 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: repeat that too, then he does not want a wider war. 39 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 4: Or this morning right after he said that he holds 40 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 4: Iran responsible, so that would point to something more limited, 41 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 4: something more like a check the box strike like they've 42 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 4: done against the Huthis over their shipping attacks. But there's 43 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 4: a domestic audience as well. Republicans some Democrats want to 44 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 4: see a very forceful response because three Americans died in 45 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 4: that attack in Jordan. So will that satisfy the domestic 46 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:28,079 Speaker 4: audience As he heads into a. 47 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 3: Reelection, that becomes the question, of course the language we're 48 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 3: hearing from Republicans and even some Democrats. But look at 49 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 3: the Armed Services Chair in the House, Mike Rogers. Biden's 50 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 3: fear of escalation has morphed into a doctrine of appeasement. 51 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 3: That is not a narrative that the president can withstand 52 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 3: on the campaign trail. 53 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 4: No, his foreign policy has really come under attack. There's 54 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 4: a sense that Republicans are trying to put out there 55 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 4: that the world is on fire under Joe Biden's watch, 56 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 4: pointing to the Israel Hamas War, the warren Ukraine, and 57 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 4: now these attacks on Americans. So he needs to show strength, 58 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 4: and that's why he might need to do something a 59 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 4: little more than just a token response here. 60 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 3: I'm sure you can speak to the line he's trying 61 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 3: to walk here, though, he's got progressives on the left 62 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 3: who are ready to bail on him because they think 63 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 3: he's being too supportive of Israel, and he's got critics 64 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 3: on the right, like I'm saying here, and even on 65 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 3: both sides of the Aisle who think he needs to 66 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 3: do more when it comes to Iran. It is kind 67 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 3: of the definition of a no win. 68 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: It is. 69 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 4: But I will point out Shoe that that is how 70 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 4: he won in twenty twenty was kind of pushing away 71 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 4: the extremes in both parties and presenting himself as this 72 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 4: reasonable candidate. So if he is in that position where 73 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 4: the right and the left are angry at each other, 74 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 4: he can kind of try to thread the needle that way. 75 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 4: But at the same time, look, the polls show that 76 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 4: voters are deeply skeptical of his leadership on the world stage. 77 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 4: So he needs to, you know, at least would like 78 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 4: to have the Israel Hamas war wind out, these hostilities 79 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 4: against American forces, stop. 80 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 3: Spending time with Jordan. Fabian Bloomberg, White House correspondent. As 81 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: President Biden heads out of town, he's on his way 82 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 3: to Florida. As I mentioned, fundraisers in Jupiter and Miami, 83 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 3: tickets going for as much as two hundred and fifty 84 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Jordan, will he get an earfull on any 85 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 3: of these issues at some of these. He's been interrupted 86 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 3: at so many events recently. I wonder if this is 87 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 3: part of a fundraiser or a choreograph fundraiser that's happening 88 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 3: outside of town. 89 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 4: A lot of propouse city and protesters have disrupted him. 90 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 4: As you mentioned, Joe, it happens a little less at 91 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 4: the fundraisers. Those are a little tougher to get into 92 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 4: the crowds. There aren't necessarily sharing the same views as 93 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 4: those supporters. You can actually might get an earful from 94 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 4: the other side of the sort of the republican arguments 95 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 4: that he made, which is, you know, he needs to 96 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 4: do more to support Israel. He shouldn't be questioning the 97 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 4: Israeli government at a time of war, so you might 98 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:58,239 Speaker 4: hear from the other side. 99 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 2: At this event in South Florida. 100 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 3: We heard from the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken talking 101 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 3: about a possible response, and again, while Bloomberg is reporting 102 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 3: that the president has made up his mind, we don't 103 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 3: know what that decision is. The line from the secretary 104 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 3: a response could quote be multi leveled, come in stages, 105 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 3: and be sustained over time, as opposed to Jordan's some 106 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 3: shockun awe bombing campaign that happens later on tonight. This 107 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 3: may not feel like the response that some people get. 108 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 3: This could come to the Secretary's point in stages. 109 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 4: That's right, and I would look to the response against 110 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 4: the who Thi's as a possible model, which is there 111 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 4: have been multiple air strikes. They are trying to target 112 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 4: their weapons depots so that they don't have the capacity 113 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 4: to keep hitting shipping channels. You could see something like 114 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 4: that against possible areas where Iran strones are being stored. 115 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 3: Sure the reporting today, by the way, that this may 116 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,799 Speaker 3: have been prompted. This attack may have been allowed because 117 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 3: of confusion. They thought an American drone was coming back 118 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 3: to base, but apparently it was the one from this 119 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 3: Iranian proxy. If we had any confirmation on that. 120 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 4: Not that I've seen, Joe, but obviously that would be 121 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 4: a concerning intelligence failure. If true, it's a whole new 122 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 4: fog of war on the age of drones. It's remarkable, Jordan, 123 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 4: thank you for coming in. We rely on Jordan Fabian 124 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 4: on this program so often. Bloomberg White House correspondent with 125 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 4: the line from the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue here 126 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 4: as we add Michael Knights to the conversation. I've been 127 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 4: looking forward to this the Washington Institute, Jill and Jay Bernstein, 128 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 4: fellow specializing in the military and a real expert here 129 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 4: on the region and the players. Michael, it's great to 130 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 4: have you back on Bloomberg. We're talking so loosely about 131 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 4: Iranian proxies. I wonder if we can be more specific 132 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 4: before I ask you questions about what's coming next. The 133 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 4: Whuthis have been on the front page. Obviously, people are 134 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 4: familiar with Hesbollah and Hamas. Are these the three primary 135 00:06:58,200 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 4: groups we're talking about or are there more? 136 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 5: Well? In some ways, the mass is a bit of 137 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 5: a newcomer, you know, because they're a Palestinian movement from 138 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 5: Sunni Islamic community, whereas most of Iran's proxies come from 139 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 5: the Shi'a Islamic community, and they would include Lebanie says Bulla, 140 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 5: the first and earliest the Iraqi Shia militias who fought 141 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 5: on Iran's side during the Iran Iraq War for those 142 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 5: listeners who can remember the eighties. And then finally the 143 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 5: newest member of that access of resistance, the Huthis down 144 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 5: in Yemen, who kind of form a southern hbulla like 145 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 5: the southern pincer of a kind of a crab claw 146 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 5: that the Iranians have got around Israel and the Eastern 147 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 5: Mediterranean and the Red Sea. 148 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 3: So what do you make then, of what we're hearing 149 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 3: from the White House, the President telling reporters that Iran 150 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 3: is responsible for supplying the weapons in this attack that 151 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 3: took place in Jordan, and that he's made up his mind. 152 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 3: Do you have a sense, based on what you've seen 153 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 3: already from the Bidendministration what might be about to happen. 154 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 5: I think what's about to happen is that we're probably 155 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 5: going to strike inside Iran for the first time since 156 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 5: the nineteen eighty hostage rescue. 157 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 2: I'll come. 158 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 5: And that's, you know, the reason being that essentially we've 159 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 5: run out of options, We've run out of runs on 160 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 5: the escalation ladder. We're trying to convince the Iranians and 161 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 5: their proxies to stop mounting attacks that could kill us 162 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 5: in Iraq and Syria and to stop attacking global shipping 163 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 5: in the Red Sea through the Hoothies, and they're simply 164 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 5: not responding. So that tells us that you can't just 165 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,959 Speaker 5: keep attacking the tentacles of the octopus. You've got to 166 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 5: attack the head of the octopus the way the Israelis 167 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 5: describe Iran's network, and I think that's coming next. 168 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 2: How do you do that and not prompt a wider war? 169 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 3: The Biden administration has been so careful to try to 170 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 3: not escalate things. Wouldn't that define escalation? 171 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 5: Well, it does. But this is what happens when you 172 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 5: run out of road in your existing escalation management strategies. 173 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 5: I mean, essentially Iran and Iran and the US have 174 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 5: both been what we call escalating to de escalate, and 175 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 5: both of their strategies have not been working. So essentially, 176 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 5: you know, we've got two failed de escalation strategies hitting 177 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 5: head on, like two trains hitting each other. And for 178 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 5: US now Iran, doing something in Iran is the next step. 179 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 5: But of course, if you did something very lightweight in Iran, 180 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 5: if you just pecked away at a particular base in 181 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 5: the middle of nowhere, revolutionary God training base, if you 182 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 5: went for some radars on the coast, what you're doing 183 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 5: there is that you are breaking the seal on the 184 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 5: Iranian homeland. You're saying, we're ready to do this from 185 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 5: now on. We haven't done it for the first forty 186 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,560 Speaker 5: plus years of the Islamic Revolution's life in Iran, but 187 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 5: we're doing it now, and we are only going to 188 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 5: do it a little bit at the start. But next 189 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 5: time it might be worse. That could have the shock 190 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 5: effect required to make the Iranians back down their proxies, 191 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 5: or it might require something even stronger. 192 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 3: What would be the Iranian response to an attack on 193 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 3: Tehran ran directly on Iranian soil. 194 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 5: If we hit something on Iranian soil, even if it 195 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 5: doesn't really hurt very much, they're going to have to 196 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 5: hit us back at one of our regional bases, probably 197 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 5: our Sad in Iraq, which is where they hit us 198 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 5: after we killed the castm. Solomoni, their senior general in 199 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 5: the region in January of twenty twenty. You know, they 200 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 5: hit us back in Alas Sad, and even though we 201 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 5: didn't suffer and he killed that day, you know, they 202 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 5: rung the bells pretty badly through traumatic brain injuries, you know, 203 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 5: well over one hundred troops. So they're going to do 204 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 5: something like that. If we hit them very hard in Iran, 205 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,239 Speaker 5: they might do something a bit more aggressive. 206 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 3: Even that's just official action from Iran and the Revolutionary Guard, 207 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 3: what would become of Iran's proxies, not to mention, just 208 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 3: lone wolf terrorists who would love a reason to strike 209 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 3: at the US. 210 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 5: It's interesting to note that when we hit Kassum Solomoni 211 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty under the Trump administration, which was about 212 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 5: the most painful thing we could have done to them, honestly, 213 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 5: they didn't get their proxies to hit us back. Immediately. 214 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 5: They basically said to all of those guys, hold, we'll 215 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 5: do it ourselves. This is our business, our avenge to 216 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 5: get and we can do it precisely in a way 217 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 5: that probably the Americans won't respond to. 218 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 6: And that was true. 219 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 5: Trump came out and said, fees fair, we hit them, 220 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 5: they hit us. Is over, and so it may well 221 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 5: be that that will be their response another time. The 222 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 5: problem for the Biden ministry is we want this cycle 223 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 5: to stop, and ideally we wanted to stop before the 224 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 5: Gaza war ends, which might happen in February or March, 225 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 5: or it might take a lot longer. And so we're 226 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 5: trying to work out what's the cold splash of water 227 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 5: to the face that's going to make the Iranians find 228 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 5: a safe, face saving way to just turn this off, 229 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 5: and we're not sure if it's going to work or 230 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 5: if it's going to make things work. 231 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 3: Wow, well, clearly the stakes could not be higher here. 232 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 3: You might have heard me reference Anthony Blincoln. He said 233 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 3: something else yesterday. I would argue, said the Secretary of State, 234 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,559 Speaker 3: We've not seen a situation as dangerous as the when 235 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 3: we are facing now across the region since at least 236 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 3: nineteen seventy three, and arguably even before that. 237 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 2: Would you agree with that statement? 238 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, I would agree. And you know, it's hard not 239 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 5: to look at a lot of the policies of the 240 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,719 Speaker 5: last ten years and you know, fifteen years and say 241 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 5: this was really a problem of our own making, honestly, 242 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 5: because we failed to stop these kind of threats before 243 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 5: they evolved to become so significant a networked. 244 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 3: Well, it makes you wonder what future policy is going 245 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 3: to mean with the two possible presidents. Let's say that 246 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 3: this is a Trump Biden campaign, what would this mean, Well, 247 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 3: the Trump administration less than a year from now. 248 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 5: Well, we know that Republicans are amongst the leading voices 249 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 5: who want to move to mainland Iran and begin to 250 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 5: affect the head of the octopus, not just the tentacles, 251 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 5: so we could say they're more likely to do that 252 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 5: in the future. I'll say one thing though, you know, 253 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 5: the last three years, if you look at the failure 254 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 5: to try and rebuild the nuclear deal and then you 255 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 5: look at the increasingly militarized competition with it between the 256 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 5: US and Iran since the goals of war began, there's 257 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 5: no putting Humpty Dumpty back together. It's very hard to 258 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 5: imagine any administration, Democrat or Republican having faith in the 259 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 5: idea of a significant de escalation with Iran. Instead, what 260 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 5: we're looking at is more of a containment strategy as 261 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 5: we had with let's say the Soviet Union open ended 262 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 5: or North Korea. It's an open ended, containment mechanic strategy 263 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 5: against a near nuclear adversary. 264 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 3: Think we'll see some action in the next twenty four hours. 265 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm surprised we haven't seen it already, But I 266 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 5: think that demonstrates the Biden administration is not willing to 267 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 5: just hit the targets it can fined, which is those 268 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 5: in Iran. It's looking to hit the targets it wants 269 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 5: to hit instead, which are probably some leaders who they're 270 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 5: waiting for them to pop up in Iraq or Syria 271 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 5: so they can take a whack at them there. 272 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 3: Think of that when you see the headlines. Michael, it's 273 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 3: good to see you, and I appreciate you're joining us. 274 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 3: Michael Knights with us from the Washington Institute for Near 275 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 3: East Policy. Getting things rolling here. 276 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken just 277 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rodoo 278 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 279 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 280 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 281 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 3: Welcome to Bloomberg Balance of Power, Kaylee. The President has 282 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 3: just touched down in Florida. There were some questions about 283 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 3: whether he should have stuck with the schedule today knowing 284 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 3: that there could be a response coming against Iran or 285 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 3: its proxies as soon as tonight. 286 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, we don't actually know the timing. We don't even 287 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 7: know what that response ultimately will entail. We just know 288 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 7: that he has made a decision about what the response 289 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 7: will be. And actually Admiral John Kirby, the spokesperson for 290 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 7: the NSC was briefing reporters on the plane to Florida 291 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 7: and said it will be a tiered response. So this 292 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 7: isn't necessarily just something flies, you know, tonight or in 293 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 7: whatever day the administration chooses, but we could see multiple 294 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 7: steps to this retaliatory process. 295 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 2: There we say a laddered response. We spoke with Michael Knights. 296 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 3: A little bit earlier on Bloomberg Radio Kayley, and this 297 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 3: is someone who knows Iran's proxies as well as anyone. 298 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 3: He predicted here on Bloomberg Live that we're done with escalation, 299 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 3: there's nowhere further to escalate, and that the US he believes, 300 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 3: will strike Iran directly, and he thinks it could happen 301 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 3: as soon as tonight. That's a pretty incredible prediction to 302 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 3: consider what the response to that might be. And I 303 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 3: wonder if we might see the president where's the Oval 304 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 3: Office address at a moment. 305 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 7: Like this, Well, if we indeed see a strike like that, 306 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 7: then surely he would have to address it in some form. 307 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 7: It's interesting, though, that he would characterize that as not 308 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 7: an escalation when we haven't actually had that's a direct 309 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 7: strike on Iranian territory in decades so if we did 310 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 7: it this time around, that certainly would, at least from 311 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 7: a lot of the conversations I've had, bring this conflict 312 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 7: to a much different level than it is right now, 313 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 7: when basically the US to this point is only engaged 314 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 7: with Iranian proxies. 315 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 3: Sure, exactly, it would be remarkable, and to his point, 316 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 3: it would draw a response. I wonder Hugar Shamali's thoughts 317 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 3: on this, the former director for Syria and Lebanon at 318 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 3: the National Security Council, founder of Greenwich Media Strategiesguard. It's 319 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 3: good to see you, Thanks for coming back to talk 320 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: to us. What's your thought on this? What should be 321 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 3: the response from the administration? 322 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 8: Well, there are three levels of options that the administration 323 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 8: could pursue. And by the way, I'd add, when I 324 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 8: was at the White House, one of the things that 325 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 8: was very common is that the Defense Department lives to 326 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 8: do contingency planning, so they have plans for all sorts 327 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,479 Speaker 8: of scenarios of this kind, and they likely had something 328 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 8: in the can. They had options that were laid out 329 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 8: pros and cons of those options. And the thing that 330 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 8: the Biden administration has to achieve here is to send 331 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 8: a message to put an end to all this aggression 332 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 8: coming from these Iran back to militant groups, while not 333 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,959 Speaker 8: escalating things into a full scale war, and also protecting 334 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 8: the rest of our troops and US presence across the region. 335 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 8: We have twenty five hundred troops in Iraq, nine hundred 336 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 8: in Syria, and we have a number of bases across 337 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 8: the Gulf and elsewhere, and that is not including our 338 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 8: US embassies diplomatic personnel. So there's a lot here, a 339 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 8: lot of fine line he has to walk. Now in 340 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,199 Speaker 8: terms of the options, he could go very tough and 341 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 8: very tough. I would put that that would include any 342 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 8: kind of strike or action within Iran's borders. That would 343 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 8: be something like weapons depots, airports, perhaps leadership, the Islamic 344 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 8: Revolutionary Guard Corps, stations, things of this kind. Then you 345 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 8: have a second tier, if you will, something like Iranian 346 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 8: presence across the region instead of targeting Iran within the borders, 347 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 8: meaning sinking its worship in the Red Sea or other 348 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,679 Speaker 8: vessels in the Gulf, things of that kind. And then 349 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 8: at the lowest level, I would put a heightened attacks, 350 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 8: perhaps simultaneous attacks against those Iran backed militant groups in 351 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 8: Iraq and Syria. But the administration has really already done that. 352 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 8: And by the way, if they only do that, Iran 353 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 8: won't care about those kinds of strikes. So it needs 354 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 8: to be a level above Yeah. 355 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 7: Well yeah, at the end of the day, Higar, isn't 356 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 7: this what Iran will care about, because it's not just 357 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 7: about retaliating for the attacks we have already seen. Keeping 358 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 7: in mind that sure, this was the first deadly one 359 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 7: that occurred in Jordan a few days ago, but we've 360 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 7: seen more than one hundred and fifty against the US 361 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 7: troops in the region since October seventh. It's also trying 362 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 7: to deter make sure that future attacks don't happen at all. 363 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 7: How can you actually deter Iran and its proxies if 364 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 7: you don't go after Iran itself. 365 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 8: Well yes, I mean you make a point at the 366 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 8: end that's very valid. You have to go after Iran 367 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 8: in some way, shape or form, whether it's related to 368 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 8: its leadership or to its money, and I mean, these 369 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,160 Speaker 8: are the things they care about the most, and also 370 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 8: its reputation, how it looks, how it looks publicly. They 371 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 8: need to see a message that indicates to them that 372 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 8: the US is not afraid. These dictators and thugs don't 373 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 8: understand the language of democracies. It's not the same. So 374 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 8: we shouldn't in my opinion, we shouldn't be afraid to 375 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 8: strike Iran, but we shouldn't be afraid or Iranian targets 376 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 8: in the region because that's the only thing they understand 377 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 8: in order for them to the United States seriously to 378 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 8: know that if they dare respond to that, that the 379 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 8: US has no fear in escalating further. And so those 380 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 8: are the kinds of targets that you could see. They 381 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 8: could also pursue other announcements like saying that the nuclear 382 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,479 Speaker 8: deals off the table, for example, but they are going 383 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 8: to have to hit Iran. One last point I would 384 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 8: say on this is that while Iran may not be 385 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 8: behind every single execution of these attacks from these Iran 386 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 8: backed groups, these iron backed groups across the region wouldn't 387 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 8: exist if it weren't for them. They fund them, arm them, 388 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 8: train them, they give them technical assistance and intelligence. And 389 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 8: also on the flip side, Iran has that building to 390 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 8: tell them to cut it out. So that's why the 391 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 8: message has to be at Iran. 392 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 3: Okay, So how about with all of that said Haigar, 393 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 3: how about all of the above. What odds would you 394 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 3: put on in all of the above response to make 395 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 3: a point from this administration. 396 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 8: If I had to place it, bet, I would say 397 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 8: that their response would probably fall somewhere in the second tier. 398 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 8: But you know it could listen, it could it could 399 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,400 Speaker 8: go either way. Second tier meaning and certainly an Iranian target, 400 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 8: an Iranian high profile target. There are Iranian leaders of 401 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 8: the IRDBC who are based in the Middle East. They 402 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 8: have vessels and diplomatic embassies, and they have IRGC offices 403 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 8: and and bases inside the Middle East. Those are not 404 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 8: the same as Iran back to middleitant groups across the 405 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 8: Middle East. So that's where I would expect an action 406 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 8: to take place. And as Secretary of Blincoln has said, 407 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 8: we expect this to be long term. And as you said, 408 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 8: it'll be tears, that's normal. It's not going to be 409 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 8: just tonight or tomorrow, whenever this happens this week. There 410 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 8: will be multiple, multiple steps. And the point the reason 411 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 8: the administration's conveying that message is to say it's not 412 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 8: just going to be this. There is more to come, 413 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 8: and we're going to keep you on your toes wondering 414 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:49,679 Speaker 8: what will be the next step. 415 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 7: And of course this is a decision that the President 416 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 7: is making or already has made, we're just waiting to 417 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 7: see execute it on But can the US really make 418 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 7: this kind of call in iolation when a lot of 419 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 7: the strikes that has been carrying out against Iranian proxies 420 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 7: have been done in concert with the United Kingdom. Obviously, 421 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 7: there's the wider maritime task force in the Red Sea, 422 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 7: and the consideration as well of Arab allies like Saudi Arabia, 423 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 7: who have been very reluctant to further provoke Iran proxies 424 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 7: like the Houthis in particular because of the attacks they 425 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 7: have seen from those groups. How does the US need 426 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 7: to think about the wider picture here in the other 427 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 7: countries at play? 428 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 8: Will I find the Middle Eastern leaders, all of them, 429 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 8: including the Saudis, have been very weak, in my opinion, 430 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 8: in pushing back on how Iran has messaged their views 431 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 8: since October seven, how the Houthis have been behaving. The 432 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 8: Houthis in particular, the Saudis themselves waged a nine year 433 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 8: brutal war against the Huthis, so for them to say 434 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 8: for them to come off as weak as they've been, 435 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 8: I find to be quite a disappointment. And listen, they 436 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 8: have their own interests. Of course, they're trying to manage 437 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 8: their own public opinion while still while still advancing their 438 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 8: national security and economic interests. I can see where they're 439 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 8: coming from. But the US, when it comes to a 440 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 8: situation like this, this is an instance of self defense 441 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 8: and the way the US views it and the White 442 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 8: House views it, and this is by the way, why 443 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 8: the US doesn't why the White House won't need congressional 444 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 8: approval either, is because not only was this an act 445 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 8: of self defense, but whatever the response is is specifically 446 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 8: meant to eliminate the threat posed to US presence in 447 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 8: the region. Which is why President Biden can take this 448 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 8: decision as commander in chief without consulting Congress, maybe consulting, 449 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 8: but not waiting for congressional approval. And also he is 450 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 8: not likely to consult other Arab allies because it could leak. 451 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 8: And I am sure you've seen the administration has been 452 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 8: deliberately very vague on who even conducted the drone attack 453 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 8: in Jordan, which Iran backed group? Where was it? But 454 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 8: we don't know if it was Iraq or Syria, and 455 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 8: that's by design because they don't want anybody to be 456 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 8: on guard. They don't want that militant group to have 457 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 8: their missile missile defenses up or anything of that kind. 458 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,400 Speaker 8: It's the element of surprise is critical. And so if 459 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 8: they consult anybody, it would I would assume it would 460 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 8: only be the UK or anything anybody in what's called 461 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 8: the Five Eyes, which is the group of five English 462 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 8: speaking countries who are who share intelligence. 463 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 3: You talk about the modeling that you would have been 464 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 3: doing at the National Security Council in your time working 465 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:27,400 Speaker 3: for the Obama administration reguards what extent is proportionality modeled. 466 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 3: We keep hearing that, you know, we can't do this forever, 467 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 3: responding to every drone attack with a million dollar cruise missile. 468 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 3: How do we how do we manage this new age 469 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 3: of warfare? 470 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, the proportionality is an important one because 471 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 8: and it's very important to the United States, the U S. Government. 472 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 8: We assess proportionality very carefully and and that comes for 473 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 8: any any war. And I believe, by the way, for example, 474 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 8: proportionality has to do with deeming how big a threat, 475 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 8: how large is the threat, how significant is it to 476 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 8: the national security of the United States. It's foreign policy, 477 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 8: it's economy. And when something is deemed a significant threat, 478 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 8: then that's what determines whether or not you go after 479 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 8: that threat, what the collateral damage might be, and how 480 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 8: you go after that threat. And there are threats that 481 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 8: sometimes the US doesn't go after because perhaps the collateral 482 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 8: damage is too big for a threat that is not 483 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 8: actually that significant. Something like this is very significant, right, 484 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 8: killing US soldiers, something that results in killing US soldiers 485 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 8: is significant. Now. I've heard some say that there have 486 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 8: been one hundred and sixty five attacks since October seven 487 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 8: from these are Ron backed groups, and that this was 488 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 8: one hundred and sixty fourth and that they just got 489 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,159 Speaker 8: lucky on their end. And I don't mean to use 490 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 8: the term lucky on us. It's actually it's devastating, but 491 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 8: on their end. And that might be the case, but regardless, 492 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 8: it's a red line. We knew that with this situation 493 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 8: and help precarious, it would be that this could be 494 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,880 Speaker 8: there's a risk of something like this happening. And so 495 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,919 Speaker 8: when it comes to proportionality and you have US soldiers 496 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 8: who've been killed and you're facing that threat, the proportionality 497 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 8: is going to be assessed. There is no threat, they're 498 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 8: not going to go after. The only thing that they're 499 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 8: going to make sure of is that there isn't a massive, 500 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 8: massive civilian death. 501 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 7: Well, speaking of civilian casualties, Hagar, that of course is 502 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 7: very much in focus when it comes to the root 503 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 7: cause of a lot of this escalation and the way 504 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 7: we have seen things intensify in the Middle East, which 505 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 7: is the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, and we 506 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 7: know that happening in Paris in recent days. Conversations still 507 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 7: ongoing are talks to try to reach a ceasefire agreement 508 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 7: in exchange for the release of hostages that are still 509 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 7: being called held in Gaza, stopping hostilities for at least 510 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 7: some period of time, especially considering the Huthis say that 511 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,920 Speaker 7: they are acting in support of Hamas of Iranian proxies. 512 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 7: If we could see an agreement like that, could that 513 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 7: help ease not just what's happening between Israel and Humas, 514 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 7: but what is happening more whyly in the region. 515 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 8: I'm so glad you asked this question, because I think 516 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 8: there's a lot of misunderstanding about the connection between the 517 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,360 Speaker 8: aggression pursued by these Iran backed Milton groups and what's 518 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:17,119 Speaker 8: happening in Israel Gaza. So obviously what happened, what's happening 519 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 8: in Israel Gaza, and what's happened since then and since 520 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 8: October seven, has resulted in a massive increase in these 521 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 8: attacks that we're seeing from these Iran backed groups. Militants 522 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:33,439 Speaker 8: behootis all of them, but their claim that they're doing 523 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 8: it to fight for the Palestinian mission or cause, or 524 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 8: that they're doing it to protest against the war and 525 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:44,360 Speaker 8: to protect Palestinians is a lie. The reason they do 526 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,919 Speaker 8: this is in part because whenever any time there's instability 527 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 8: in the region wherever, whatever it might be, they use 528 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 8: it as an opportunity to create more trouble. And the 529 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 8: reason they do that is not only because they're troublemakers 530 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 8: and they like to do that, but because it's how 531 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 8: they gain legitimacy and variety, and reeling in a big 532 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 8: fish like goading the United States into a war for 533 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 8: them is massive. It would allow them to fundraise further, 534 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 8: to recruit further, to get more notoriety publicly, to be 535 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 8: back on the map, to have a ron look at 536 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 8: them like the Darling you know, and so that is 537 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,160 Speaker 8: why they pursue this type of behavior, and it's why 538 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,400 Speaker 8: they don't really care about going the United States into 539 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 8: a war because they have nothing to lose. They don't 540 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 8: it's not about whether or not they'd win, they'd obviously lose. 541 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 8: It's about putting them on the map. And so when 542 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 8: you have if you have an agreement in Paris, and 543 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 8: by the way, I'm hopeful that they'll get to some 544 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 8: kind of agreement, though I don't expect it to result 545 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 8: in a permanencyas fire. I would expect these attacks to 546 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 8: continue without a strong response from the United States. Like 547 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 8: if that response is not strong enough, then I would 548 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 8: see these kind of you know, low level attacks continuing. 549 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 8: And that's likely because there won't be a permanent ceasefire. 550 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 8: But even if you had a permanent ceasefire, we've seen 551 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 8: these attacks for the last few years. It's just been 552 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 8: at a lower level. They just always heighten when there's 553 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 8: something that goes wrong, when it talks between the US 554 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 8: and Iran fall or when things happen in Syria. I mean, 555 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 8: they always they. 556 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,960 Speaker 7: Go up and down, all right, Hagar Shimali, thank you 557 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 7: so much as always for joining us. We always appreciate 558 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 7: your insight on these topics. Thank you for your time. 559 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 7: And Joe, it's important to hear from the likes of Hagars. 560 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 7: I've heard recently in just the last twenty four hours 561 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 7: or so, this idea that the Huthis may cool things 562 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 7: off if there is indeed a ceasefire with Hamas. But 563 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 7: maybe the line is not actually that direct, and these 564 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 7: proxies have other incentives here. 565 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 2: That's right. 566 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 3: You wonder about the political incentive here domestically as well. 567 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 3: President Biden being criticized by both sides of the island. 568 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 3: He needs to flex to show to Hagar's point that 569 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 3: the administration is not afraid. 570 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, a lot of people trying to paint his administration 571 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 7: as weak on Iran. So it'll be interesting to see 572 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 7: how this moves forward. 573 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 2: Yet, that's for sure. We'll have a lot more ahead 574 00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg. 575 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 576 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on AMO car Play 577 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 1: and then Broudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 578 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. I'll watch us live 579 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 580 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,880 Speaker 3: As we consider the news today on the campaign trail, 581 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 3: Kaylee lines, this is a big one for Nicki Haley. 582 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 2: This is the big meeting with. 583 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 3: The whales, the big donors, yep, who will likely give 584 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 3: her a chance to continue campaigning here in the weeks ahead, 585 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 3: knowing that money is so important to staying alive. But 586 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 3: I'll tell you what, the folks at IPSOS, the polling firm, 587 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 3: are already moving on to the general election. 588 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 2: Sounding like a lot of Americans. 589 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 7: Right now, Yeah, just not Nicki Haley. She's talking about 590 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 7: the establishment who wants to call this thing done and 591 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 7: dusted already. She is not willing to do that. We'll 592 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 7: see if these donors, big names well known to our 593 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 7: television and radio audiences, Stan Druck and Miller, Kenlyn gone right, 594 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 7: all these kind of wall streets, if they continue to 595 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 7: keep financially backing her as long as they want, real 596 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,480 Speaker 7: reason why she can't stay in the race. But to 597 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 7: your point, Joe, it's looking like it may it could 598 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 7: be good money going after bad at this point if 599 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 7: she can't start winning states, picking up more delegates, and 600 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 7: actually pose a real challenge to Trump to secure the nomination. 601 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 3: Reinforces this idea that it's not about winning a bunch 602 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 3: of early states. It's about collecting delegates just enough to 603 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 3: hang on and maybe be there. 604 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 2: If something should happen to Donald Trump. 605 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 3: But at IPSOS, they're running numbers today on the general 606 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 3: election campaign, and you know, we have to talk to 607 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 3: Cliff Young when they come out with something that's making news. Here, 608 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 3: Public Affairs President at IPSOS US Cliff, it's good to 609 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 3: see you. Welcome. The headline says it all here. The 610 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four US presidential election outcome is highly uncertain. 611 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 3: It takes a lot to cast out this far. We're 612 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 3: told not to pay too much attention to hypothetical national polls, 613 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 3: So what do you get in that here? 614 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 6: So basically we're not just looking at polls. 615 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 9: This is a look at a series of models that 616 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 9: we use at episodes, both in the United States and 617 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,720 Speaker 9: around the world. This is our first cut at the 618 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 9: election from a forecasting perspective. Obviously things can change, But 619 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,120 Speaker 9: when we say it's highly uncertain, we're not talking about 620 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 9: distance from the election and perl distance how far out 621 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 9: it is, because it's always uncertain. What we're really talking 622 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,240 Speaker 9: about is we have an uncertain economy that will really 623 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 9: define the election for Biden or for Trump. And what 624 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 9: we do more specifically is sort of detail those sorts 625 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 9: of things that any sort of analyst should be looking 626 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 9: at as the election season unfolds. 627 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 8: Well. 628 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 7: On the subject of the economy, you point out how 629 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 7: public opinion is typically a lagging indicator on the economy. 630 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 7: That's something we talk about a lot here at Bloomberg 631 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 7: TV and radio. This idea that the economic data is 632 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 7: looking pretty good, inflation's coming down, the labor market is 633 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 7: still in there, and yet President Biden has really poor 634 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 7: approval numbers on his handling of the economy. When does 635 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 7: that lag actually kick in and potentially start helping him more. 636 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, that's a great question, and I would say that 637 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 9: with if it were related to unemployment, we would have 638 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 9: a better idea. It's about three to five months. With inflation, 639 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 9: we've had so little experience with inflation the United States, 640 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 9: we're not quite sure what the lag is. What I 641 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 9: would say is the killer quarter. The quarter you should 642 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,320 Speaker 9: look at is the second quarter. If the numbers have 643 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 9: not caught up by then, for Biden from an economic perspective, 644 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 9: he should have problems looking forward. So at ipsis we're 645 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,520 Speaker 9: really looking at that second second quarter. Our expectation is 646 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 9: that things will improve. We don't know how much they 647 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,680 Speaker 9: will them. 648 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 3: You refer to temporal fuzziness that your models suffer from. 649 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 3: I guess like all of us at this point here, Cliff, 650 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,040 Speaker 3: you mentioned the economy its ability to change, creating a 651 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 3: real fluid situation for us as we head into this 652 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 3: election cycle, this election year. You also refer to the 653 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 3: potential for black swan events, and we certainly saw that 654 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 3: in the last election. That would have been something impossible 655 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 3: to poll around, and that's what we became what became 656 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 3: known as COVID nineteen. 657 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, exactly, black swan events. We can set those aside 658 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 9: because we just don't know right. We'll know it when 659 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,800 Speaker 9: they're here, but we don't have them at this point, 660 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 9: and so let's set them aside. What we're really looking 661 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 9: at is the effect of the economy on the main 662 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 9: issue today. The main issue is the economy, and Trump 663 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 9: by far outpaces Biden on that issue. That's Biden's achilles heel, 664 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 9: the economy. But with an improving economy, our expectation is 665 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 9: that we'll have other issues come to the four Immigration, crime, 666 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 9: saving democracy. We're not quite sure which ones, and so 667 00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 9: we'll be tracking them very consistently over time and ipsos. 668 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,720 Speaker 9: But that's the key issue, or the key analytical point 669 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:08,760 Speaker 9: all of us should be looking at. 670 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:10,360 Speaker 6: What is the main issue? 671 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 9: What is that thing that Americans are really worried about 672 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 9: because they'll vote on that issue from November. 673 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 8: Well, on the. 674 00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 7: Subject of these issues, and you actually have a great 675 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 7: chart kind of laying out the different models you are 676 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 7: looking at in which ones favor the incumbent president Biden 677 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 7: or Trump. And one of them is the idea that 678 00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 7: if the economy and the inflation is the main problem, 679 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,719 Speaker 7: that is strong Trump in terms of modeling. Yet, we 680 00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,799 Speaker 7: have been having a lot of conversations in recent weeks 681 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,319 Speaker 7: and we saw this in New Hampshire and Iowa that 682 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,760 Speaker 7: perhaps even more so than the economy, it's the border 683 00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:45,799 Speaker 7: that is weighing on the minds of voters. Are you 684 00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,439 Speaker 7: seeing that reflected in your pulling? And how would that 685 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 7: change perhaps the Leeds Trump versus Leans Biden. 686 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:58,319 Speaker 9: Yeah, so the economy obviously favors Trump. Immigration favors Trump 687 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 9: as well. Right now now at this point, immigration is 688 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 9: a Republican issue. It's something that mobilizes the Republican base, 689 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,480 Speaker 9: though Democrats are worried about it, it's a Republican issue. 690 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 9: If it becomes the primary issue after the economy, Biden 691 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 9: will have problems because Trump dominates that issue. 692 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,520 Speaker 3: Boy, what can we expect from IPSOS on this? Now 693 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,799 Speaker 3: that you've schooled us a bit here. 694 00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 2: On the method? How often are you going to update 695 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:32,799 Speaker 2: these going through the year. 696 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:38,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, we're not gonna the models will be updating about 697 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,480 Speaker 9: every two months or so. 698 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 6: We don't want to, you know, overdo it. 699 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 9: But what we will be updating much more consistently are 700 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 9: those main issues, the evolution of what people are worried about, because. 701 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 6: In our mind, that will define the election. 702 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,200 Speaker 9: Will it be a Biden issue, an issue that favors Biden, 703 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 9: will be a tr Trump issue, one that favors him. 704 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,720 Speaker 9: We don't know still, and so we'll be very closely 705 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:10,000 Speaker 9: following those specific questions over time. 706 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,959 Speaker 7: And just finally, Cliff, because you are just talking about 707 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 7: Biden and Trump, is Nicki Haley not even really a 708 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 7: factor you need to be considering anymore? 709 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,400 Speaker 9: Well, I would say the following. Trump dominates the Republican base. 710 00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 9: He is their champion. It's more than you know relative 711 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 9: to Nikki Haley. It's it's more than than the majority. 712 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,920 Speaker 9: That's not to say she doesn't have some chance. I mean, 713 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 9: we have to be honest with ourselves. Something could happen, 714 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 9: but I think it's highly unlikely that she's able to 715 00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 9: sort of. 716 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 6: Turn the tide. 717 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,640 Speaker 9: I mean, ultimately, if you just look at the polls today, 718 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,719 Speaker 9: every single national pole on the primaries has Trump in 719 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 9: the lead, and most of the polls at the state level. 720 00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,239 Speaker 9: Once again, things can change. It's possible. We should never 721 00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 9: count anyone out, but I think it's highly unlikely that 722 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 9: she'll be the nominique. 723 00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 7: All Right, Cliff Young joining us from IPSOS, thank you 724 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 7: so much for your time. We always appreciate it. And Joe, 725 00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,719 Speaker 7: of course, Bloomberg will have a poll of our own, 726 00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,239 Speaker 7: the poll of swing states that we've been running consistently 727 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,280 Speaker 7: for the last few months. The latest comes out tomorrow. 728 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:23,040 Speaker 3: It's also not been good news for Joe Biden, specifically 729 00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:25,680 Speaker 3: in the states that we'll decide the next election. Kaylee's 730 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,359 Speaker 3: thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 731 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,320 Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 732 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,000 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 733 00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,320 Speaker 3: US Live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 734 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 3: at bloomberg dot com.