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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 4: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.

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Speaker 4: We have an amazing show today.

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Speaker 5: Don't wait for this Valentine's Day for everybody out there Wednesday,

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Speaker 5: February fourteenth.

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Speaker 6: That's Ryan doing a Saga impression, as producer Mac implored

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Speaker 7: In the stadium before we started.

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Speaker 4: So it'll be out today.

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Speaker 6: ran so much breaking news. The House voted actually to

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Speaker 6: impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro my Orchis last night with time

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Speaker 6: they got him, They got him. This time, we're going

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Speaker 6: to talk about that. We're going to talk about the

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Speaker 6: breaking news out of New York's third District where election

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Speaker 6: results are.

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Speaker 4: New George Santos.

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Speaker 7: The new George Santos isn't there. We will go to.

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Speaker 6: The up We'll start by going to the Upper Chamber

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Speaker 6: where the bill on Ukraine Israel AID is pending could

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Speaker 6: go over the House. We're not sure exactly how that's

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Speaker 6: going to work out, but we do have some breaking

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Speaker 6: updates on that story. We're going to talk about updates

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Speaker 6: out of Israel yesterday. We're going to talk about inflation

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Speaker 6: as well, and we have a very interesting guess.

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Speaker 4: Yes.

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Speaker 5: So we've been covering the drama in Pakistan a lot

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Speaker 5: on this show, as you guys know, the elections were

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Speaker 5: held last week and today we're going to be joined

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Speaker 5: by the former Chief of Staff to Imran Khan, whose

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Speaker 5: party resoundingly won those elections, but the United States and

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Speaker 5: cahoots with its generals over there, is busy trying to

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Speaker 5: trying to steal it. Shabbaz Gil is the kind of

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Speaker 5: chief representative for I Roan Khan's party here in the

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Speaker 5: United States. He's here on asylum because he was the

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Speaker 5: subjects of some absolutely brutal torture under the current regime.

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Speaker 4: We won't get into the.

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Speaker 5: Details of that, but we'll get into, you know, where

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Speaker 5: this heads from now. Because it is very clear that

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Speaker 5: I Ron Khan's party one a mandate to govern. It

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Speaker 5: is also equally clear that the military establishment there is

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Speaker 5: going to do everything they can to stop him from

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Speaker 5: being able to govern and keep him in jail.

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Speaker 7: I'm really looking forward to the interview. Yeah, very interesting stuff.

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Speaker 6: Let's start in the Senate though, where again it passed

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Speaker 6: that Ukraine Israel Aid bill.

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Speaker 4: If we get Taiwan.

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Speaker 5: It's really funny that we're spending eight billion dollars to

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Speaker 5: help facilitate a war with China over Taiwan.

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Speaker 7: Well also, and it just.

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Speaker 5: Kind of even in my own article on this the

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Speaker 5: internestip I put in parentheses, but it's eight billion dollars

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Speaker 5: just a meer sum for potentially conflict with China.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean kind of warrants.

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Speaker 5: I should have taken those parentheses out. So that's why

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Speaker 5: mentioning it here.

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Speaker 6: Ryan's editing himself on air. Well, let's go ahead and

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Speaker 6: put a one up on the screen. So Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 6: just yesterday urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to take up

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Speaker 6: that bill because obviously, after passing Senate you have to

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Speaker 6: go to the House. But McConnell of course said he

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Speaker 6: would not be quote so presumptuous as to tell him

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Speaker 6: how to do it. It's Ryan amazing because this means

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Speaker 6: that Mike Johnson, who just lost but Democrats actually gained

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Speaker 6: a seats, and he loses how many people that he

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Speaker 6: can have in his book down to now so he

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Speaker 6: can afford to lose two people on every vote, and

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Speaker 6: he lost three on the Mayorkas people which passed yesterday.

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Speaker 6: We'll get to that in just a moment, but this

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Speaker 6: is actually pretty amazing. You have now Mike Johnson, who

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Speaker 6: doesn't have the margins to pass this bill because there's

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Speaker 6: no border funding attached to it.

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Speaker 4: Congressman his own insistence, Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Well absolutely, But also the insistence of their voters. The

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Speaker 6: Republican voters do not want them to pass a bill.

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Speaker 6: And actually that's a problem with Democratic voters to increase,

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Speaker 6: which is that not just a to Ukraine but aid

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Speaker 6: to Israel feels to a lot of people like this

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Speaker 6: bigot has been turned on and it's sort of like

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Speaker 6: half the country things that we've sent in polling. The

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Speaker 6: numbers specifically are different in every poll obviously, but polling

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Speaker 6: broadly funds that people around half the country things we

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Speaker 6: spent too much money or sent too much money to

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Speaker 6: Ukraine already.

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Speaker 7: So Democrats are just plowing through with aid to Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: But I think can we even have if we can

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Speaker 6: put a two up on the screen here you can

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Speaker 6: see this is the quote from Reuters. After months of

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Speaker 6: negotiations and political infighting, the lawmakers approved the measure in

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Speaker 6: a seventy to twenty nine vote that comfortably exceeded the

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Speaker 6: chambers sixty vote threshold for passage and sent the legislation

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Speaker 6: onto the House. Twenty two Republicans joined most Democrats to.

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Speaker 7: Support the bill.

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Speaker 6: Now you're not going to get that level of support

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Speaker 6: on the House side. It tore Republicans in the Senate

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Speaker 6: side apart. Ryan, it's remarkable the what's the best way

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Speaker 6: to put it, the explosion of a lot of these

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Speaker 6: tensions that have been simmering under the surface. So, for example,

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Speaker 6: some ten Senate Republicans we don't actually even know who,

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Speaker 6: because it was a secret vote, voted against McConnell for

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Speaker 6: Minority leader last time around. And this exploded those tensions

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Speaker 6: to the surface in a way that I think has

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Speaker 6: been a threat that McConnell hasn't seen in a very

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Speaker 6: very long time.

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Speaker 7: If ever, probably.

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Speaker 6: The backlash to McConnell and the Senate side was huge,

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Speaker 6: not enough to tank.

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Speaker 7: The bill, but enough that it's the House.

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Speaker 6: Republicans are going to follow along with those Senate Republicans

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Speaker 6: that were extremely frustrated by McConnell.

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Speaker 4: Ye, And briefly, let's talk about a little bit. What's

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Speaker 4: in this bill.

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Speaker 5: SO eight put up a three here. SOBS is a

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Speaker 5: ninety five billion dollar aid package. Sixty billion dollars of

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Speaker 5: it is set aside for the Ukraine War effort, fourteen

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Speaker 5: point one billion dollars to Israel, eight billion dollars to Taiwan,

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Speaker 5: four hundred million for other stuff. Now within that is

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Speaker 5: roughly ten billion dollars in humanitarian aid which is dispersed

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Speaker 5: between the West Bank, Gaza, Ukraine also and also Sudan.

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Speaker 4: You had some Democrats who.

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Speaker 5: Were opposed to the Israel war money but supported the

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Speaker 5: Ukraine money.

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Speaker 4: So, like Chris van Holland, who Crystal.

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Speaker 5: Talked about yesterday, he also cited the aid that was

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Speaker 5: that was in there. So this is one of those

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Speaker 5: packages where they put lots of things together and that way,

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Speaker 5: if a member of Congress opposes, like one of the three,

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Speaker 5: they end up voting for it. And that's how you

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Speaker 5: can get through things that most people are against. However,

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Speaker 5: the Ukraine aid is interesting because if you did put

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Speaker 5: it up as a standalone, it would pass. Who was

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Speaker 5: one of the House republicans said that just quite simply,

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Speaker 5: or said this whole package would pass. Actually if you

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Speaker 5: just get it onto the House floor.

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Speaker 4: There's much more resistance.

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Speaker 5: Among Republicans at this point to that ukraineate war money

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Speaker 5: than Democrats.

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Speaker 4: It's been quite a kind of a stea change.

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Speaker 5: You would not have expected that, say, ten fifteen years ago.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, and it was a smart move constituent wise,

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Speaker 6: actually for Republicans in Washington to say, to demand you know, say, wait, listen,

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Speaker 6: we have a majority in the House, and you know

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Speaker 6: Democrats don't have all that big of a majority in

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Speaker 6: the Senate. But with a majority in the House, we

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Speaker 6: should actually be throwing our weight around a little bit.

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Speaker 6: And that's where they got the idea, say, if you

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Speaker 6: are going to continue funding the Ukrainian military effort humanitarian

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Speaker 6: aid to Ukraine, then.

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Speaker 7: You're going to attached to it border security.

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Speaker 6: And what it meant by that was not you know,

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Speaker 6: millions and millions of dollars to customs and border patrol protection.

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Speaker 7: It was to actually reform the system.

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Speaker 6: And James Langford basically the bipartisan quote unquote deal that

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Speaker 6: has been talked about over and over again was brokeer

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Speaker 6: basically by James Langford and Mitch McConnell and didn't even

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Speaker 6: have support. Those are like the two people in the

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Speaker 6: Senate who supported it. Other Senate Republicans in leadership couldn't

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Speaker 6: even get behind the deal that these two members worked

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Speaker 6: out with Chuck Schumer essentially, so that it's kind of

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Speaker 6: like the way the media is covering it. I saw

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Speaker 6: you just now as I was reading some of the

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Speaker 6: coverage that the far right tanked the border deal, But

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Speaker 6: really was the establishment right that tanked the border deal

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Speaker 6: by knowingly brokering that was going absolutely nowhere, that was

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Speaker 6: going to be done on arrival because it was so

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Speaker 6: opposite to what was being demanded by mainstream conservatives, knowing

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Speaker 6: that they were going to have to go defend it

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Speaker 6: in their district where people are demanding something completely different.

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Speaker 7: Ryans.

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Speaker 6: So the discharge petition is now what is being talked about,

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Speaker 6: which would allow Democrats, if they could get enough votes,

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Speaker 6: to circumvent Republican leadership and get the bill to the

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Speaker 6: floor for a vote, because when you have a majority

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Speaker 6: in the House, even if it's a slim majority, you

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Speaker 6: control the votes. And if Mike Johnson doesn't even want

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Speaker 6: to bring this bill to a floor for the vote,

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Speaker 6: which he doesn't, and it could actually be a problem.

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Speaker 6: I'm curious for your take on this with Justice Dems

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Speaker 6: squad members who don't want to get behind this either.

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Speaker 6: In Dems actually the sort of coalition of the political establishment.

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Speaker 7: They need Justice Dems to get a built like.

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Speaker 5: This, or they need a handful of Republicans right, because

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Speaker 5: if they lose some Democrats on the left, they need

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Speaker 5: to pick up some Republicans, so which they could I mean,

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Speaker 5: obviously rashieta tale, but alhon Omar like they're not voting for,

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Speaker 5: and a lot of decent number of other demos. Well,

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Speaker 5: we should start a whipcount to see aren't you know,

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Speaker 5: aren't ready to support this fourteen billion dollars for Israel

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Speaker 5: while and this is the this is very important context

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Speaker 5: that we'll get to late later in the show. While

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Speaker 5: Israel is planning an invasion of Rafa, which is an

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Speaker 5: enclave of somewhere between one point three one point five

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Speaker 5: million hudding and starving people. The population of Rafa before

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Speaker 5: the war was something like three thousand, four hundred thousand.

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Speaker 5: Now it's quintupled because Israel has over the last four

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Speaker 5: months repeatedly told people you have to leave this area

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Speaker 5: for your safety, and so they've moved them all down

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Speaker 5: to Rafa, and now they're saying that, well, actually we

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Speaker 5: have to bomb and invade Rafa as well. The US

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Speaker 5: has called the State's Apartment has called it a potential

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Speaker 5: disaster if it happens. Even John Kirby said it would

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Speaker 5: be a disaster if it happened. But the latest reporting

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Speaker 5: is that we're not doing anything.

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Speaker 4: To stop it.

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Speaker 5: So at the same time you're going to then give

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Speaker 5: them fourteen billion dollars, You're going to have a lot of.

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Speaker 4: A handful of Democrats on the left.

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Speaker 5: We're going to say no, we're not doing that right now,

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Speaker 5: which to your point right means you're going to need

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Speaker 5: Republicans then to join with Democrats to implement this discharge petition.

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Speaker 5: Two and eighteen is the number that I think it's

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Speaker 5: never been done successfully. There have been threats of a

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Speaker 5: discharge petition in the past, but I don't think there's

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Speaker 5: ever been when it's actually been implemented.

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Speaker 4: If the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 5: Ever does successfully do a discharge petition, it will be

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Speaker 5: two fund wars shot the exception on the Republican side

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Speaker 5: that proves the rule actually is sort of not even

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Speaker 5: Republican anymore.

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Speaker 4: Mitt Romney, we can.

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Speaker 5: Play his his assessment of the vote this week.

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Speaker 8: The vote we will soon take to provide military weapons

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Speaker 8: for Ukraine is the most important vote we will ever

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Speaker 8: take as United States senators.

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Speaker 7: Oh, it just makes me gag to listen to that.

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Speaker 7: It's unbelievably stupid.

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Speaker 5: It's it's a really instructive window into how he sees it. Right,

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Speaker 5: it's true wild like that he sees this as the

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Speaker 5: there's something about this war in Ukraine that the mitt

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Speaker 5: Romneys of the world have decided represents a kind.

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Speaker 7: Of it's the Cold War.

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Speaker 4: To Chris van Holland called it a hinge moment in history.

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Speaker 5: Yes, it's very These are not stupid people, but it's

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Speaker 5: very hard to understand what on earth they mean by

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Speaker 5: this as a hinge point.

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Speaker 6: And Mitch McConnell speaks in the sort of lofty rhetoric

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Speaker 6: about Ukraine as well, And obviously he's been the engine

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Speaker 6: for so much Republican support towards Ukrain thus far. And

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Speaker 6: this is a quote when they were talking about the

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Speaker 6: vote a couple of days back, he said to lament

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Speaker 6: the commitment that has underpinned the longest draft of great

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Speaker 6: power conflict in human history. This is idle work for

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Speaker 6: idle minds, and it has no place in the United

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Speaker 6: States Senate and this chamber. We must face the world

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Speaker 6: as it is. We must reject the dimmest and most

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Speaker 6: short sighted view of our obligations and grapple instead with

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Speaker 6: actual problems.

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Speaker 7: This is really his quote as they come in the

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Speaker 7: harsh light of day and today The questions facing.

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Speaker 6: This body are quite simple. Will we give those who

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Speaker 6: wish us more harm or harm more reason to question

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Speaker 6: our resolve? Or will we recommit to exercising American strength.

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Speaker 6: Will we give those who crave our leadership more reason

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Speaker 6: to wonder if it's in decline? Or will we invest

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Speaker 6: in the credibility that underpins our entire way of life?

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Speaker 6: I mean, give me a break, talk about that. And

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Speaker 6: this is where a lot of constituents would.

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Speaker 5: Say eighteen seventy eight or something and get yeah, and

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Speaker 5: Russians under the bed.

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Speaker 6: A great yes, exactly, and a great point that za

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Speaker 6: Jalani made about Mitch McConnell recent on twitters. This guy

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Speaker 6: represents one of the poorest states in the country. And

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Speaker 6: this is where if you see rhetoric like this that

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Speaker 6: Mitch McConnell gets so excited to express on the Senate floor,

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Speaker 6: you wonder why you don't hear him talking like this

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Speaker 6: about you know, for example, to a lot of his

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Speaker 6: constituents in Kentucky, they say, what about the border? Why

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Speaker 6: don't you talk like this about the border? Why don't

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Speaker 6: you talk like this about crime? Why don't you talk

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Speaker 6: like this about X, Y and Z? They cannot help themselves,

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Speaker 6: but wax poetic about Ukraine because in their mind it

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Speaker 6: is still like you said, Russians under the bed.

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Speaker 5: It is, you know, Mitch McConnell's role in you know,

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Speaker 5: because Mitch McConnell also was instrumental in getting through the

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Speaker 5: last aid package, yes, which which got through before you know,

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Speaker 5: Republicans took over that House of Representatives and he made

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Speaker 5: sure that there was enough money that would.

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Speaker 4: Get us to this point.

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Speaker 7: Right.

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Speaker 5: And for a lot of people who were watching, who

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Speaker 5: let's say there, I think I actually pretty much everybody

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Speaker 5: watching is sympathetic to the Ukrainian side, like the Ukrainians

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Speaker 5: were invaded, Yes, and it's horrifying to watch, but realistically,

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Speaker 5: the way that this war is going to end is

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Speaker 5: through some sort of negotiations. The more money that you

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Speaker 5: continue to throw at it, the more weapons you continue

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Speaker 5: to throw, it just delays the time when this can

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Speaker 5: actually get to a negotiated end.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 5: Vladimir Bun talked in his interview with Tucker Carlson, which

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Speaker 5: we're going to get to later, a lot about the

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Speaker 5: negotiations that were unfolding a year and a half ago

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Speaker 5: in Istanbul, which were scuttled by the West. And what

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Speaker 5: does Ukraine have the show for the last year and

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Speaker 5: a half of fighting compared to what was potentially on

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Speaker 5: the table in Istanbul Just hundreds of thousands of dead

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Speaker 5: and more territory loss. So if there was some idea

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Speaker 5: that Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer had that with enough money, yes,

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Speaker 5: they were going to push all of the Russians back

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Speaker 5: to of every inch of Ukrainian territory. I still wouldn't

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Speaker 5: want to see that many people die over over territory.

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Speaker 4: But okay, at least that's a strategy.

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Speaker 7: There's a strategy.

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Speaker 4: Least I understand you know what you're doing here.

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Speaker 5: But Diego Kotkin, who we've interviewed before, Russian socialist over

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Speaker 5: there commentator, the way he put it was, you know,

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Speaker 5: it either ends now in a negotiation because Ukraine runs

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Speaker 5: out of money, or it ends in two years because

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Speaker 5: Ukraine runs out of people.

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Speaker 7: Yes, well they've already run.

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Speaker 4: They're now drafting people up into their sixties and there's

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Speaker 4: so what's what do you do? Like, what's your long

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Speaker 4: term plan for two years from now?

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Speaker 6: According to Wall Street Journal, reports are actually like pressuring

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Speaker 6: people into conscription. They're conscription people in ways that seem

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Speaker 6: to be illegal.

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Speaker 5: They're trying to find people overseas and get them to

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Speaker 5: come back.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so yeah, no planet.

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Speaker 6: Senator around Paul, one of the voices in the Senate

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Speaker 6: that has always been a staunch opponent of Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 6: and the sort of war hungry political establishment. Here's what

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Speaker 6: he had to say. I believe this is a clip

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Speaker 6: from yesterday.

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Speaker 9: Support what he's doing here, and I'm very outspoken that

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Speaker 9: he's made a mistake. He's siding with Schumer and Biden.

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Speaker 9: But after the election he said there's a vote aftergot

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Speaker 9: which you foot bridge when we can I can say

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Speaker 9: right now, he doesn't represent me or conservatives in Kentucky

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Speaker 9: or conservatives across the United States. He's doing the bidding

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Speaker 9: of Schumer and Biden.

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Speaker 10: We're only here because of just one prick, and he

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Speaker 10: decides that the rest of all of our schedules in

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Speaker 10: our lives and holding up this bill to the getting

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Speaker 10: to the House for all of this aid. It's incredibly

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Speaker 10: frustrating and there's no work being done. It's just bad

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Speaker 10: performance art.

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Speaker 6: So that was also Senator John Fetterman reading off his

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Speaker 6: phone and calling Mitch McConnell a prick, which, by the way,

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Speaker 6: fact check, they're all, well, I.

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Speaker 5: Think he reads the questions off his phone. He reads

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Speaker 5: the right because he has he still has the auditory

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Speaker 5: processing issues, so that his phone translates the questions that

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Speaker 5: he hears into words and then and then he responds

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Speaker 5: with his.

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Speaker 7: Hawkish Colinmage McConnell A prick, was it?

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Speaker 4: I think it was called Rand paula prick there?

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Speaker 7: That was Rand Paul.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, because uh Paul for holding the bill.

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Speaker 7: Up, for holding the bill. Okay, that makes.

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Speaker 5: Me saying he just wants to be out of town

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Speaker 5: and be done with this. Okay, So but Paul's forcing

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Speaker 5: them to stick around.

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Speaker 6: Okay, thank you for the correction on that. And either way, though,

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Speaker 6: the fact.

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Speaker 4: Check is about McConnell too.

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Speaker 6: Let's they're all, if you're in the United States Senate

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Speaker 6: odds are good, then you have some prickishness in you.

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Speaker 6: So let's also go now to House Speaker Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 6: who was asked about the dispart just discharge petition maneuver

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Speaker 6: just yesterday by Chad Pergram.

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Speaker 1: Is there any.

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Speaker 2: Trans of the discharge petition?

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Speaker 11: Is that something you oppose.

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Speaker 2: I certainly oppose it, and I hope that it would

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Speaker 2: not be considered. How has to work its will on this.

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Speaker 2: There's a deliberty process and we're engaged in that, and

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Speaker 2: we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 4: But as I said many times, national security.

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Speaker 2: Begins with their own work and.

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Speaker 4: Across the building will determine that as soon as it has.

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Speaker 6: So no discharge position and no vote on the bill

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Speaker 6: on the House floor. Meanwhile, let's put a seven up

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Speaker 6: on the screen. This is one of my favorite tweets

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Speaker 6: in a long time. David from He says Putin's last

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Speaker 6: hope is speaker Mike Johnson, which is an echo of

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Speaker 6: the Ruthless follows the McConnell hacks over at the Ruthless

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Speaker 6: podcast saying that Mike Lee's only the only thing he

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Speaker 6: cares about is protecting Hamas when he opposed the spending

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Speaker 6: bill last week.

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Speaker 7: Just some real incredible takes.

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Speaker 5: Here, and the flaw here in the thinking again is

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Speaker 5: that if we pass this sixty billion dollars in aid

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Speaker 5: and all that those weapons and AMMO gets over to Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: that Ukraine is then going to launch a counter offensive

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Speaker 5: that is going to turn the war around and be

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Speaker 5: the undoing of Putin like That's the only way you

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Speaker 5: can understand the logic of a post like that. But

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Speaker 5: he does not explain why this sixty billion dollars in

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Speaker 5: weapons is going to lead to a successful counter offensive

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Speaker 5: that reclaims all this territory when the last sixty plus

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Speaker 5: billion dollars didn't do it, when they had hundreds of

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Speaker 5: thousands of younger people who were still alive.

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Speaker 6: Right right, yes, no, absolutely, I completely agree with that.

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Speaker 6: And just as a a sort of glimpse into the

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Speaker 6: pressure that Republicans are facing on this, we put eight

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Speaker 6: up on the screen.

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Speaker 7: This is the.

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Speaker 6: Comm strategy for Senate Republicans, and I'm sure we'll see

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Speaker 6: some of this from warhawks in general over the next.

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Speaker 7: Couple of days.

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Speaker 6: McConnell I read that quote earlier, calling people dim and

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Speaker 6: short sighted. Are in their perspectives, dim and short sighted

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Speaker 6: if they object to the bill. But Senator Tom tell Us,

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Speaker 6: very close with Mitch McConnell had just a hell of

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Speaker 6: a quote one for the books. He said, our base

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Speaker 6: cannot possibly know what's at stake at the level that

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Speaker 6: any well briefed US senator should know about what's at stake.

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Speaker 7: If putin wins.

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Speaker 6: So basically, you were too dumb and ill informed to

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Speaker 6: understand why we need to rubber stamp another sixty billion

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Speaker 6: dollars to Ukraine, which, by the way, as Ryan pointed out,

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Speaker 6: you could probably get it to pass if you attached

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Speaker 6: some border security that mainstream conservative Republican voters were happy with.

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Speaker 6: But why we should rabber stamp sixty billion dollars to

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Speaker 6: Ukraine without any of that.

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Speaker 7: You're simply too dumb and ill informed.

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Speaker 6: You can't possibly have the knowledge and understanding of the

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Speaker 6: United States Senator if.

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Speaker 7: You oppose this bill, hell of a way to.

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Speaker 5: Sell it, Ryan, Yeah, and from say, let's say, a

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Speaker 5: kind of liberal humanitarian global perspective. If you had the

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Speaker 5: Ukrainian population, you know, rushing to the front lines, yes,

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Speaker 5: and you know, urging the entire world to be you know,

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Speaker 5: to support their war effort and armed and to arm

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Speaker 5: them so that they could continue this fight, you know,

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Speaker 5: that would be one thing the Ukrainian population has made

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Speaker 5: very clear with their feet. Yes, now that that does

448
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 5: that doesn't take anything away from the Ukrainians who are

449
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 5: fighting bravely at the front lines, many of them forced

450
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 5: to do so, some of them by choice. But the

451
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 5: vast majority of people who have had the opportunity to

452
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 5: flee have gone to other countries because they don't want

453
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 5: to go to the front lines.

454
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 4: There are there are so few men left in Ukraine.

455
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 5: Like in the beginning, lots of families left Ukraine during

456
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 5: the invasion, but then a lot of the women came back,

457
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 5: but the men stayed abroad because they did not want

458
00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 5: to fight in this war, which I respect. But if

459
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 5: they don't want to fight in the war, why are

460
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 5: we trying to force them to?

461
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,120
Speaker 7: Yeah? Well again, Ryan spoken.

462
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 4: Like negotiations were on the table. This could be again.

463
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 6: Spoken like somebody sort of dim and short sighted and

464
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 6: who couldn't possibly understand you.

465
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 7: Have you been briefed in the US?

466
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 5: I guess I guess I haven't gotten the classified briefing

467
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,239
Speaker 5: about how important it is. But it's also something that

468
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 5: as a as an old man, like I'm in my

469
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,239
Speaker 5: fit mid forties now, and when you get in your

470
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 5: mid forties, you're like, all right, I'm done with the

471
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 5: time that I'm a fighting age military male that's over

472
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 5: in Ukraine. That is not the case, not at all.

473
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 5: You are dead set in the middle of that bell

474
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 5: curve when.

475
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 6: People report walking down the streets and just being conscripted

476
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 6: by force.

477
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 5: Yes, I know people who have friends over in Ukraine

478
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 5: who are have the men older than me getting dragged

479
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 5: to the front lines. It's like trying to imagine myself

480
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 5: at the front lines.

481
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, and barely get out of bed in the morning.

482
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 5: Reports I'm going to walk through a frozen trench, dodging shells,

483
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 5: trying to work a drone with my frozen fingers.

484
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 7: And there are.

485
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 6: Reports that based on your sort of wealth and social status,

486
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 6: you're able to escape conscription and.

487
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 4: Get the hell out of there.

488
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 6: So again, yeah, it's just why we're saying that this

489
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 6: is the most in the words oft Ronney, the most

490
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 6: important vote that you'll ever take.

491
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 7: Is idiotic.

492
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 6: It's idiotic, it's insulting, and they continue to sort of

493
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 6: just openly insault people who oppose it, which I don't

494
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 6: think is actually helping their cause. I don't think it's

495
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 6: going to help them pass anything through the House that

496
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 6: they so badly want to. The math doesn't look good

497
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 6: for them at all on this, But you know, they'll

498
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 6: pull out all of the stops to make sure it

499
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 6: gets funded.

500
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 7: So we'll see where it goes.

501
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 4: So there was We'll move on quickly.

502
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 5: Somebody had a in Pakistan, one of the winners, one

503
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 5: of the of the the recent election from Imran Khan's party,

504
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 5: said that what he was going to do when he

505
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 5: got into power was take all of the cops who'd

506
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 5: been raiding unarmed, just polling workers homes and engaging in

507
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 5: like a crackdown on the civilian population throughout these regions

508
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 5: of Pakistan, locking up old women. He's like, that's very

509
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 5: brave of you to, you know, smash down the door

510
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 5: of an old woman and throw her in prison.

511
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 4: For trying to vote.

512
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 5: I'm going to send you instead to fight terrorism of

513
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 5: in the west of the country. So all the cops

514
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 5: who are involved in this, guess what you're going over there.

515
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 5: So if people really, you know, I want to show

516
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 5: some bravery, there's there are opportunities for them to go

517
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 5: to the trenches. But if like Malcolm Nance, there you go, right,

518
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 5: didn't he go there for a little while?

519
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, yeah, now he's back. And if he's back, then.

520
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 7: What are we doing. It's the Malcolm Nance rule?

521
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 4: There you go.

522
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 6: So, speaking of the difficult math ahead, last night, the

523
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 6: House of Representatives voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Majorcus.

524
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 6: And it sounds like, you know, I'm almost sort of

525
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 6: numb to this. It doesn't sound like it's that big

526
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 6: of a deal. It actually is that big of a deal, Ryan,

527
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 6: because this is the first time that a cabinet secretary

528
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 6: had been impeached since the nineteenth century, since actually pretty

529
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 6: shortly after the Civil War.

530
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 7: This is not a normal thing.

531
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 6: Even though it feels like we've got there, how many

532
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 6: impeachments in the last five plus years or impeachment inquiries, two.

533
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 7: Impeachments of Trump.

534
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 6: You had the Biden impeachment inquiry opened, and now this

535
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 6: impeachment into all one hundred Mayorcus was successful. After last

536
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 6: week we talked to Representative Greg Kasar about this.

537
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 7: Al Green was wheeled in from.

538
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 6: The hospital to take a vote that tanked House Republicans' efforts.

539
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 6: They thought they had enough votes to impeach Mayorcus last week,

540
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 6: brought the vote to the floor and did not by

541
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 6: one vote. The special election in New York, which we'll

542
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 6: do a full block on later, affects these numbers. Because

543
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 6: last night the vote was two hundred and fourteen to

544
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 6: two hundred and.

545
00:26:55,560 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 5: Thirteen California Democrat had COVID yes, So that's what doomed

546
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 5: may Orcus apparently.

547
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 6: So, and they were constantly counting who would be able

548
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 6: to vote, like physically would be able to vote or not,

549
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 6: And that's what you know. That's how they ended up

550
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 6: bringing this to the floor last night. But they lost

551
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 6: three Republicans and now in the future, because there's a

552
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 6: new Democrat replacing George Santos, they can only lose to

553
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 6: Republicans on these votes. So the math for Republicans going forward,

554
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 6: just on this may Orcus question, where you had the

555
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 6: vast majority of their conference willing to go ahead and

556
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 6: take this vote, they had three people who weren't, and

557
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 6: that was just enough to tank it last week. One

558
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 6: person last week voted against it so they could bring

559
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 6: it to the floor again this week. But they squeaked

560
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 6: this out with a one vote margin.

561
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 4: And now it dies.

562
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 7: Yes, yeah, it's going to go to the Senate.

563
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 4: Nothing's happening in the Senate.

564
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 7: Yes, there's no way that this is going to make anything.

565
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 5: Well, they have do they have to have an actual

566
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 5: trial or can they just know they can just table it?

567
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 7: Can they We went through this with Trump.

568
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 4: They had a motion of the table.

569
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 6: Yes, I think they can just table that failed they

570
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 6: but so, but either way, they actually still have to

571
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 6: do that, which is an important enough vote for Senate

572
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 6: Republicans because there if you're voting on the motion table,

573
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 6: that's still going to be a question of how you

574
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 6: vote on that, which for Senate Republicans will be you know,

575
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 6: again interesting to see where they go and they can

576
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 6: have a fun question. Yeah, yeah, they and you know

577
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 6: they will have fun, that's for sure. We can put

578
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 6: up this next element on the screen. This is from Politico.

579
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 6: This is what the vote totals looked like. So yeah,

580
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 6: the first time that this happened, by the way, was

581
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 6: eighteen seventy six, so first time in nearly one hundred

582
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 6: and fifty years.

583
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 7: I don't know where.

584
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 6: They go from here, Ryan, in terms of future bills

585
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 6: that could possibly be passed if they have an agenda

586
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 6: that they're able to get through.

587
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 7: It looks like basically that's that on arrival.

588
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 5: That would have been Democrats, right, because then Democrats sweep

589
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 5: the mid terms of eighteen seventy four.

590
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 4: In eighteen seventy no, that was eighteen ninety two. Democrats

591
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 4: did not.

592
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 5: Democrats were not backing power to eighteen ninety two, eighteen

593
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,959
Speaker 5: seventy four, Republics were still riding high in reconstruction.

594
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 7: We have Rea Ryan Grim that would have been, that.

595
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 5: Would have been a Grant Cabinet secretary that they were

596
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 5: angry at.

597
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 6: In all seriousness, the you know, I don't think either

598
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 6: of us we will be differ.

599
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 5: Somebody tell us in the comments, was it radical Republicans

600
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 5: upset with some like Grant person not engaged, not like

601
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 5: pursuing reconstruction hard enough?

602
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 7: I think it was legitimately, Like, was it criminal? I

603
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 7: think it was.

604
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 4: It was one of those. Yeah, it was his big

605
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 4: corruption scandal.

606
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 6: One of the reasons people watch Counterpoints is to hear

607
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 6: us speculate blindly about historical events. So if that's what

608
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 6: you tune in, and I know it's a lot.

609
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 4: Of it PD, you can go find it.

610
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 7: You're welcome, Happy Valentine's Day.

611
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 6: But in all seriousness, I know we differ obviously on

612
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 6: the solutions, like Crystal and Sager do. But this is

613
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 6: no question humanitarian crisis at the border that Congress is

614
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 6: utterly incapable of landing on a solution to the executive

615
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 6: branch has been utterly incapable of landing on a solution

616
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 6: to I think you Remain in Mexico. Under Donald Trump,

617
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 6: which was an executive branch solution to the problem, was

618
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 6: hugely powerful. Biden has not implemented Remain in Mexico at

619
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 6: the levels A court basically forced him to reinforce Remain

620
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 6: in Mexico, and he's been enforcing at very low levels.

621
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 6: That said, reports in Mexican media suggest that a deal

622
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 6: that was struck from the Biden administration with AMLO in

623
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 6: late December and early January has actually stopped in the

624
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 6: last month a whole lot.

625
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 5: Because we accused him of being funded by terrorists and

626
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 5: give him a narco terrorists.

627
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 6: And agreed to give him a lot of money basically

628
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 6: too for border enforcement. So even like Labistia, the train

629
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 6: that was carrying so many migrants, they've been stopping that.

630
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 6: They've been stopping people at Tapachula, They've been stopping people

631
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 6: all over the country in Mexico enforcing.

632
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 7: Their own immigration laws.

633
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 6: Because it seems like we actually there's been no transparency

634
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,719
Speaker 6: on what really happened. It seems like though we offered

635
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 6: to give AMLO a whole lot of money in return

636
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 6: for this enforcement, which honestly is great news. I know

637
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 6: it's not great news for Republicans in a political year.

638
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 6: I think they have plenty to run on the border period.

639
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 6: I don't give a damn really about whatever they're saying

640
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 6: in terms of their electoral success. But it's great news

641
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 6: for people who are not going to be kidnapped and

642
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 6: raped and sexually abused. And will you know, reconsider whether

643
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 6: to take those trips if it's not a legitimate asylum claim. Again,

644
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 6: I know Ryan and I differ on the solution on

645
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 6: some of this, but you know this is there's no

646
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 6: question millions of people have flooded over the Biden administration.

647
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 6: It's understandable why my work is is up for impeachment

648
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 6: because it's it truly is a crisis.

649
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 7: In every single way.

650
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 6: And Ryan, you know, another thought I had yesterday is

651
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 6: we are debating border security and Ukraine aid and not

652
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 6: debating aid to all of these countries that get a

653
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 6: lot of aid from the United States, but are if

654
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 6: we're concerned about border security because so many people are

655
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 6: fleeing countries in South and Central America and coming up

656
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 6: to the United States. If it's a security question by Republicans'

657
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 6: own logic, you could could could secure the border with

658
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 6: some humanitarians.

659
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 5: Have any idea what you could do with ninety five

660
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 5: billion dollars in Venezuela, Honduras, Guatemala, Salvador, like all of

661
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 5: these countries that are that are, you know, sending migrants

662
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 5: absolutely up to our border. But no, we're gonna send it.

663
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 4: We're gonna send it elsewhere anyway.

664
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 6: It's just amazing that these two conversations are happening completely

665
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 6: separate arenas, like nobody even.

666
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 7: Thinks to put them together.

667
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, if it's about security because people are flooding to the.

668
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 5: United States, I'm glad that they don't because I've said before,

669
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 5: the second they do start putting them together, they'll realize

670
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 5: that Ukraine's manpower problem can be solved with the US

671
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,719
Speaker 5: migration crisis, and I don't want them to go anywhere

672
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 5: near that.

673
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 7: Well, it already happened with Cuban migrants.

674
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 4: Whatuld they do there?

675
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 7: They were going to fight for Russia.

676
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 4: Oh good look, Oh that's right they did.

677
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, yes, and Cuba said that they had nothing to

678
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 6: do with it and it's been stopped. But yes, the

679
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 6: less opportunity they have to put two and two together,

680
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 6: maybe the better for now, and.

681
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 5: So truce talks have collapsed between that were broken by Cutter,

682
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 5: between Israel and Hamas as Israel makes clear that even

683
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 5: in the face of global opposition, it intends to launch

684
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 5: its invasion of Rafa. This is a city of some

685
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 5: three hundred thousand people at the start of the war,

686
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 5: is now a city of some let's say, one point

687
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 5: three one point four million people. It's impossible to know precisely.

688
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 5: People are packed on top of each other in there

689
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 5: was it was said to be kind of one of

690
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 5: the last and only safe places in Gaza. Of course,

691
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 5: it has been hit by IDF air strikes since the

692
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 5: very beginning, sporadically, just recently more than one hundred people

693
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 5: were killed in air strikes there. From the podium, the

694
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 5: State Department has said it would be a disaster if

695
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 5: Israel went in. John Kirby has said it will be

696
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 5: a disaster. But at the same time, and you can

697
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 5: put up the first element here about the true sALS

698
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 5: ending inconclusively. But at the same time, the new reporting

699
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 5: is that the United States has not only gotten basically

700
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 5: no concessions from the Israelis, but Is and relatedly is

701
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 5: suggesting there will be no consequences if Israel completely rejects

702
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 5: our insistence that they not engage in this assault. And

703
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 5: so John Kirby was asked about what the US position

704
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 5: was on the Israeli assault Rafa.

705
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 12: Here he is, Oh, we never said that they can't

706
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 12: go into Rafa to remove from US as remains a

707
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 12: viable threat to the Israeli people, and Israelis and the

708
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 12: IDEF absolutely are going to continue operations against their leadership

709
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 12: and their infrastructure as they should. We don't want to

710
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 12: see another October seventh. What we said is we don't

711
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 12: believe that it's advisable to go in in a major

712
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 12: way in Rafa without a proper, executable, effective, and credible

713
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 12: plan for the safety of the more than a million

714
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 12: Palestinians that are taking refuge in Rafa. They've they've left

715
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 12: the north and they certainly went south out of con

716
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 12: units to try to get out of the fighting. So

717
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 12: Israel as an obligation to make sure that they can

718
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 12: protect them.

719
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 5: What's what's crazy is that, you know, John Curry was

720
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 5: recently given a promotion. He's now overseeing all comms for

721
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 5: basically the entire kind of I forget exactly his title,

722
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 5: but uh, it was it was a it was a

723
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 5: it was a signal that the White House is pleased

724
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 5: with how he's been doing at the podium.

725
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,439
Speaker 4: But but what he says from the podium.

726
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 5: About what Israel to do is as useful as what

727
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 5: I say from right here about what Israel ought to do.

728
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 5: He's like, Israel has obligations not to kill civilians, to

729
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 5: give them an opportunity to find me save passage.

730
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 4: I hope that they do this. I say the same thing.

731
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 5: Well, it's very useful, right, they're listening to neither of us.

732
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 5: But yet he is one of the most powerful people

733
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 5: in the world, representing the most powerful government in world history.

734
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 5: Yet he can't get even the most basic concessions from

735
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 5: a country of ten plus million people.

736
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 6: Well, Joe Biden, who like, actually, this is not a

737
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 6: cheap shot in a speech where he's trying to prove

738
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 6: how great and competent he is.

739
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 7: Confused.

740
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 6: The president of Mexico, the president of Egyptian is the

741
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,760
Speaker 6: one basically the commander in chief. He's the one, ultimately

742
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 6: at the end of the day, that's broker in these negotiations.

743
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 6: Obviously they've sent Burns from the CIA, and they have

744
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 6: other people who are doing the day to day negotiations,

745
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 6: but it's his decisions at the end of the day,

746
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 6: and he's not all there. So you have to also

747
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 6: wonder how much that's affecting the dialogue and the decisions

748
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 6: that are being made when you have negotiations like this happening.

749
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 6: Obviously they're happening between the US, Egypt, Israel and cutter

750
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 6: as you mentioned, But you know, Joe Biden's not there,

751
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 6: but he's ultimately the buck stops with him, and they

752
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 6: know they're negotiating on his behalf. But what does anyone

753
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 6: know about what he thinks should happen in those negotiations.

754
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 5: Everything we hear about the decision making in the White

755
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 5: House is that this is a very Biden driven policy. Yeah,

756
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 5: and you know, Biden is not senile like if he

757
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 5: mix us things up, He's he's not as sharp as

758
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 5: he used to be, but you know he's he is.

759
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 5: He still has his faculties in the sense that he

760
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 5: is a as he says, a committed Zionist, and he

761
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:49,439
Speaker 5: is a committed supporter of Israel, you know, basically unconditionally

762
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 5: to the end, and I think he's kind of the

763
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 5: last of this breed of of kind of liberal Democrats

764
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 5: who are going to feel this way. It's Vetterman erasure,

765
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 5: but sure if maybe Fetterman's a whole nother thing.

766
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 4: But if you had a Gavin Newsom, JB.

767
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 5: Pritzker or Whitmer as president right now, or even Kamala

768
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 5: Harris right now, I think there would be a more

769
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 5: balanced approach where from Biden, the signal down to his

770
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 5: people is that there is nothing that the US is

771
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 5: going to do to restrain Israel.

772
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,240
Speaker 7: But I think his sinility on talk.

773
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 6: But that's where I think his sinility is affecting this

774
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 6: because yes, it's sort of it's all downstream of that,

775
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 6: but nobody knows what implementing that looks like. When he's

776
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 6: saying other things too for public relations purposes, when you're

777
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 6: sending people to Dearborn to have these conversations, I mean,

778
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 6: it's just I don't know what's going on behind closed doors,

779
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 6: but it's I do think that what he actually wants

780
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 6: to happen for political purposes and what he wants to

781
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 6: happen for moral purposes, there's a lot of muddied water

782
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,479
Speaker 6: in between those things, which is leading to completely muddy.

783
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 5: Yes, I don't think we need sinility to explain it,

784
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 5: because the White House has true been clear that what

785
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 5: their strategy is. They called it the bear Hug. They

786
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 5: laid it out very clearly. We're going to be super

787
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 5: friendly to Israel in public. That's going to bias the

788
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 5: credibility with the Israeli leadership and with the Israeli public

789
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 5: to then be critical behind the scenes, and that is

790
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 5: going to give us the maximum amount of influence. Like

791
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 5: that was the strategy that they have laid out, and

792
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 5: we've seen them execute it.

793
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 4: Every day we.

794
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,720
Speaker 5: Get multiple articles from sources familiar saying that Joe Biden

795
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 5: called Yahu some other name.

796
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 4: Yes, it's a Dodo face or.

797
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 5: Like you know, a jerk, and all the different things.

798
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 5: He's very frustrated, increasingly frustrated. In fact, every single day

799
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 5: he gets increasingly frustrated, and so that allows news organizations

800
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 5: to continue saying that he's increasingly frustrated because he's more

801
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 5: frustrated than he was the day before. And so that's

802
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 5: not stanility. That's an expression of this bear hug strategy.

803
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 7: It's the White House is expression of the Parahud track.

804
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 5: Well, it's it's what it would look like if you

805
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 5: were going to do this. It also isn't working like

806
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,720
Speaker 5: it has been signaled to net Yahu.

807
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 4: That's what that's what we were going to do.

808
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 5: So he he hears it, and he just last week

809
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 5: went on ABC Sunday Morning and said, Okay, I appreciate

810
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 5: Biden's money, I appreciate what he has to say about this,

811
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 5: but we're going to do.

812
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 4: What we're going to do.

813
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, like he and and he and his party have

814
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 5: consistently said we're going to do what we're going to do.

815
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 4: And in the face of that, you can either.

816
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 5: Try a new strategy which uses actual leverage, which you

817
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 5: have the money, or you can just continue to get

818
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 5: increasingly frustrated and come up with new names that you're

819
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 5: going to lead to The New York Times that you

820
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 5: called net and Yahoo, and I wish you could pin

821
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 5: that on sinility. I think that that's it's just what

822
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 5: Biden wants to do and and he must be comfortable

823
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 5: with the outcome, otherwise he would do something different.

824
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 7: I agree with that completely.

825
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 6: I think the sinility leads to some bad I guess

826
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 6: like I think the sinility affects the strategy and the

827
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 6: expression of the strategy.

828
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,320
Speaker 7: But I think it makes a bad.

829
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 4: Strategy worse essentially, But I think is rigid.

830
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 5: I think his brain might be stuck in time, like

831
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 5: he might not be able to adapt to the new

832
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 5: political realities of twenty twenty four, possibly because he keeps

833
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 5: talking about Gold of my Air and like that. He

834
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 5: seems very rooted, like in that under that liberal Zionist

835
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 5: understanding of.

836
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 4: The project.

837
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:36,320
Speaker 7: Yes, in the sort of car era which.

838
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 4: Doesn't really exist anymore, and so there is no Gold

839
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 4: of my Air wing anymore.

840
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 6: To your point, the thing John Kirby just said, they're

841
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 6: about having an operation. You know, he's saying, we don't

842
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 6: want a large scale, something massive basically in RAFA, but

843
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 6: we also don't want another October seven. So that's actually

844
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 6: a pretty interesting quote. It's totally unsurprising, but it's actually

845
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 6: a pretty important glimpse into what the strategy is, or

846
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 6: distillation of what the strategy is, which is that to

847
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 6: prevent October seventh, to prevent another October seventh, these operations

848
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 6: have to continue. And obvitually they just rescued two hostages

849
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 6: from RAFA, So that's a powerful sort of bargaining chip

850
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 6: in their selling of their strategy. But if this is

851
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 6: preventing another October seventh, it goes back to this question.

852
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 6: Biden fundamentally believes they disagree on one state solution, two

853
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 6: state solution, but they fundamentally agree that they can eradicate Hamas.

854
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 6: And that is the evidence for that crumbles every single day, Right,

855
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 6: even if you're rescuing hostages.

856
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, and Hamas reported that in that operation, which involved

857
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 5: these devastating air strikes that killed more than one hundred civilians,

858
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 5: hamasa's telegram channel reported they also injured eight hostages.

859
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:54,919
Speaker 4: Three of them died from their injuries. And so that's

860
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 4: why you the hostage.

861
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:00,080
Speaker 5: The families of the hostages have been urging them to

862
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 5: accept a deal that involves exchanging hostages rather than barreling

863
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 5: guns blazing guns blazing into RAFA, because the chance that

864
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 5: you kill the hostages in the process of trying to

865
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 5: rescue them is very high.

866
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 6: And then having to wait on tenter hooks to find

867
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 6: out whether the Hamas propaganda that three hostages were killed

868
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 6: is true, right, it's just unimaginable, torturous, Uncertainly.

869
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 4: They don't say who for those families right.

870
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 5: So right, so now you know your you don't know

871
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 5: if your family member is still alive period. Now you

872
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 5: don't know if they lived this hell of four months

873
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 5: in captivity, that then they died in an aerial bombardment

874
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 5: by the IDF or not.

875
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, So let's put b three up on the screen.

876
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 6: This is tear Street Scoop is really Minister blocking Flower

877
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 6: bb promised Biden would be allowed into Gaza. That is

878
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 6: a picture of besilosmochurch and he is Israelly Minister in question.

879
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 7: Here Ryan tell us about what's happening with this.

880
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 5: So the US negotiated a deal whereby they would send

881
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 5: in an enormous amount of flour into.

882
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 4: Into Gaza.

883
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 5: That Matt Miller State Department yesterday said it would be

884
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 5: enough flour I think for like one point five million

885
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 5: Palestinians for five months. Now, how you turn that flour

886
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:24,800
Speaker 5: into bread or or anything else is an open question

887
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 5: for people in Gaza.

888
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 4: If you talk to.

889
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 5: Them, it's very difficult for them to find wood to

890
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 5: burn to cook. It's almost impossible to find you know,

891
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 5: electricity or you know a stove or like all the

892
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 5: bakeries have been destroyed, like so and also clean water

893
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 5: which you need for you know, flour as well.

894
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 4: All of that is is a challenge.

895
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 5: However, getting enormous amounts of flour into into Gaza would

896
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 5: be it would be a godsend for the starving people there.

897
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 5: Chris van Holland in his in his speech the other

898
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 5: day is said that on Sunday he for the first

899
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 5: time was hearing reports of people actually dying of starvation,

900
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,879
Speaker 5: which is which is a step beyond you know, being

901
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 5: on the brink of starvation and famine. He texted Cindy McCain,

902
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 5: who's the head of the World Food Program, and she said, yes,

903
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 5: I can confirm that like this is this is happening.

904
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 5: There's not enough food getting in. Famine is imminent. People

905
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 5: are people are actually dying at this point. So and

906
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 5: the people who are not dying are going to suffer,

907
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 5: particularly the children, lifelong kind of physical not just not

908
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 5: just the obvious trauma, but physical problems for the rest

909
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 5: of their life from from the lack of nutrition for

910
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 5: this extended period of time is going to retard their

911
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 5: their their physical, physical and emotional development. Lots of kids

912
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 5: in a way, yeah, hundreds of thousands of children because

913
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,879
Speaker 5: gods is two million, two million plus people and half

914
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 5: are children.

915
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 6: And in Rafa right now, which before was in Rafa, yeah,

916
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 6: had three hundred thousand people in off Now you're just

917
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 6: have multiplied that, you know, incalculably.

918
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 5: And so Smotrich, who's one of the hardest right members

919
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 5: of the Israeli cabinet, has the capacity to install this

920
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 5: from getting in. And so now the US is going

921
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 5: to have to put some pressure on him and have

922
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 5: stern conversations privately until he gets out of the way

923
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:25,280
Speaker 5: and lets it in. Not letting in flower to starving

924
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 5: people is a war crime, like this guy should be

925
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 5: in prison for the rest of his life for just

926
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 5: for this one act. Meanwhile, there there are now raves

927
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 5: being hosted, and we can we can put this up

928
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 5: here out outside of of Gaza. You've had for weeks now,

929
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 5: and we're if you're listening on the podcast, we're showing

930
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 5: this is an actual rave at pretty pathetic looking rave,

931
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 5: pretty pathetic looking rave, but a rave nonetheless by the border,

932
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 5: by the fence where AID trucks are trying to get

933
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 5: into Gaza there for weeks now is really civilians, clearly

934
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 5: with the cooperation of.

935
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,240
Speaker 4: The military like the military. This is deep into the desert.

936
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 5: The military could you block civilians from getting down here

937
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 5: if they wanted to? Have been protesting and blocking aid

938
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 5: from getting in. So it's not just the government that

939
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 5: is using all the tools at its disposal to prevent

940
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 5: humanitarian aid from getting into Gaza, but civilians themselves are

941
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 5: going down there and now they're dancing to electronic music

942
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 5: while while they're doing it. It's one of the more

943
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 5: obscene things I think I've ever seen. At the same time,

944
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 5: South Africa has gone back to the Hague and asked

945
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 5: for an emergency in junction to try to stop them

946
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 5: stop Israel from going into Rafa. It's not as if

947
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 5: they could even enforce that, if they could get it,

948
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,439
Speaker 5: if they could get it implemented. But every single day,

949
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 5: people like Smotrich are are producing more and more evidence

950
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 5: for the Hague.

951
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 7: So let's roll.

952
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 6: John Kirby being asked about some of the tactics of

953
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 6: the IDF and making a hell of a comparison, totally

954
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 6: unprompted by the ways be five.

955
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:13,799
Speaker 7: Yeah, let's will be five.

956
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,919
Speaker 12: We have seen them take actions, sometimes actions that even

957
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:20,879
Speaker 12: I'm not sure our own military would take in terms

958
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 12: of informing civilian populations ahead of operations where to go,

959
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 12: where not to go. They have taken steps. Now obviously

960
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 12: those steps, while noteworthy, haven't been enough to reduce the

961
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 12: civilian casualties, which is why the President spoke so forthrightly

962
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 12: about it yesterday and why we're going to continue to

963
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 12: do everything we can to press these railies to be

964
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 12: more careful spectfully.

965
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 11: He's been talking forcefully about it for a long time,

966
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 11: and these reelings are no have homored people into this

967
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 11: tiny corner in the south west, got tied up against

968
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:58,280
Speaker 11: the Egyptian border where people think they're remain catastrophe. Shouldn't

969
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 11: there be more forceful action than just work.

970
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 13: We are working very very closely with our Israeli counterparts.

971
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 13: We've made clear our concerns that we would not support

972
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 13: a Rafa operation that did not properly count account for

973
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,280
Speaker 13: the more than million refugees that are down in Rafa.

974
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 12: We've been very very clear and consistent about that.

975
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:20,440
Speaker 6: So Randa is that the first time we've heard that comparison.

976
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 6: But what was interesting that in that line is that

977
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 6: nobody was asking him to compare the UNS and the IDF.

978
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 4: It's the first time, we've heard it from Democrats.

979
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,879
Speaker 5: If you remember, Ted Cruz made that exact comparison when

980
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 5: we interviewed him and after and you may have, well, you.

981
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 6: Pushed him on it because he had said it earlier,

982
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 6: and you pushed him to sort of explain it.

983
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, and so you may have had the same experience.

984
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 5: But afterwards, I got a ton of messages, emails from

985
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 5: the current and former service members, American service members who

986
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:56,799
Speaker 5: were appalled to hear him say that, saying that, you know,

987
00:49:56,840 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 5: for instance, we'd have a high value target, let's say

988
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 5: in Baghdad in how somebody like an as of spades,

989
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 5: you know, somebody that they'd been gunning for, you know,

990
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 5: four months, and there was one potential civilian nearby, and

991
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 5: the whole thing would be called off. The idea that

992
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 5: Israel is doing that does not scan at all.

993
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 6: The New York Times did in depth comparison of the

994
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 6: US military and the IDFs operations. Now this was more

995
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 6: than a month ago at this point, so obviously some

996
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 6: of these numbers may have changed because the type of

997
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 6: war basically changed when the calendar year changed under pressure

998
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 6: from the US. We still don't actually know exactly how

999
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 6: all of that transpired.

1000
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,720
Speaker 7: But so maybe these ratios are different.

1001
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 6: But when the New York Times looked into it a

1002
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 6: little more than a month ago, the numbers did not

1003
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 6: suggest that John Kirby was right to make that comparison

1004
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 6: in terms of civilian casualties.

1005
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 5: You know, you know, the actual comparison that you can make.

1006
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 5: It was with Hamas on ten seven, which was a

1007
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 5: I think what two to one no civilian to military casualties,

1008
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 5: which we would all consider horrific, horrifying. Does John Kirby

1009
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 5: think that Hamas's proportionality on ten to seven was appropriate?

1010
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 5: I mean, that's insane, except that, like the numbers are

1011
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 5: roughly it's the same. The proportionality between the number of

1012
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 5: Hamas figures that Israel claims to have killed in the

1013
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 5: number of women and children that we know it has killed,

1014
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 5: versus on ten to seven, the number of soldiers and

1015
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 5: security forces Hamas killed versus the number of civilians who

1016
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 5: were killed.

1017
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 6: And obviously, Hamas argues that that was a defensive action,

1018
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 6: even though I think most of most observers in the

1019
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 6: West would say it was offensive, at least in terms

1020
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 6: of the question of the actual military operation. Hammas argues

1021
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 6: that it's resistance that it's defensive, I think.

1022
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:58,879
Speaker 5: But either way it's military versus civilian. It's like one

1023
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 5: for every two. And Kirby's suggesting that that's equivalent somehow

1024
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 5: to how the US would operate.

1025
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 6: Well, him offering the comparison of his insane like he

1026
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 6: didn't nobody was asking him, nobody was confronting him with

1027
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 6: numbers about the US.

1028
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 7: He just volunteered.

1029
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 5: You seeing the clip that he's just kind of things

1030
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 5: like and actually and he's been in comms. Never mind,

1031
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 5: I don't want to get into Kirby, but it's ridiculous,

1032
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 5: utterly like ridiculous nuns. And also he's forcing me to

1033
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 5: sit here and defend the US military, which.

1034
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 4: Probably you don't want to do.

1035
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:30,720
Speaker 5: That killed like four million people in the last twenty years.

1036
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 5: So like, it's not it's not as if we're we're like,

1037
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 5: you know, some angels out here. And the absolute scale

1038
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 5: and power.

1039
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 6: His administration, the way they got out of Afghanistan was

1040
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 6: a massive civilian casualty incident.

1041
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 5: The massive amount of power that we projected around the

1042
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 5: globe has meant that the scale of our slaughter has been,

1043
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 5: you know, significantly greater than what's happened in the last

1044
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 5: four months in Gaza, but by proportion and by the

1045
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 5: by execution, it's it's absolutely not even close. Like the

1046
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 5: US military has also setting aside the absolute collapse of discipline.

1047
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:14,520
Speaker 5: If if you pretend that what the Israeli soldiers are

1048
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 5: doing on TikTok is is undisciplined and is outside of

1049
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 5: the strategy, it might be. I think at this point

1050
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:22,959
Speaker 5: you have to say it's part of the strategy because

1051
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 5: they're so it's so rampant, and so many soldiers are

1052
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 5: allowed to just post their war crimes on uh, you know,

1053
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,360
Speaker 5: on TikTok you see that, like they were they raided

1054
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 5: a woman's house in the West Bank the other day,

1055
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 5: and we're holding up her lingerie and posting photos of

1056
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:44,720
Speaker 5: themselves with it. How Retz just did an article about

1057
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 5: how they're they're cooking with all of the like Palestinians

1058
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 5: like like spices and using their kitchens to like cook

1059
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 5: their meals. Anyway, Uh, it's it's bad stuff. And to

1060
00:53:56,040 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 5: compare that for John Kirby to like actively dent great

1061
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 5: the US military in service of what more than a

1062
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 5: dozen countries have already concluded as a genocide is just

1063
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:11,879
Speaker 5: beyond the pale, like I can't. I didn't think I'd

1064
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:12,480
Speaker 5: wind up here.

1065
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 6: It should be a bigger story from yesterday that he

1066
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 6: offered that up. So let's move up to New York,

1067
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 6: where a special election yesterday actually could tell us a lot,

1068
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 6: even though it's just one district.

1069
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 4: And is Georgets' seat.

1070
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 6: So this is George Santos's seat. They the results are in,

1071
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:33,720
Speaker 6: we can put this first element up on the screen.

1072
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,959
Speaker 6: And actually a former Congressman, Tom Swosey, won this race

1073
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 6: by eight points from what we have now with most

1074
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 6: of the votes actually being counted. If you're up in

1075
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 6: the New York area, as producer Griffin is, you got

1076
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 6: slacked with a snowstorm yesterday on election day, and Ryan,

1077
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 6: you actually have some thoughts on that they have affected

1078
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:56,880
Speaker 6: the voting. But Mazzi Pillop, who was the Republican running

1079
00:54:56,920 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 6: in this race, a.

1080
00:54:57,800 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 4: Lot of people are going to look back at a

1081
00:54:58,960 --> 00:54:59,920
Speaker 4: former soldier.

1082
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 7: He's a former IDF soldier exactly, yes, verse.

1083
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 5: A very very committed Israel supporter. So like it's not

1084
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 5: as if there was a divide between the two right.

1085
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:12,800
Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, Ethiopian who I think was able to flee

1086
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 6: to Israel as a refugee and then ultimately came over

1087
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 6: to the United States. This was the Democrats, it should

1088
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 6: be noted outspent Republicans like basically two to one. It

1089
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 6: was a fourteen million versus eighteen million overall in spending.

1090
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 6: A lot of the heavy issues here were abortion and immigration.

1091
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:35,920
Speaker 6: But Swosey supported the quote unquote bipartisan immigration deal that

1092
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 6: Chuck Schumer had brokeered with James Langford and Mitch McConnell,

1093
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 6: and there's some analysis that that allowed him to cover

1094
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 6: on the question of immigration. But either way, Ryan an

1095
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 6: eight point race here. Flipping now, Joe Biden won this

1096
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 6: district by eight points in twenty twenty. The reason that

1097
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 6: this district is interesting is because it's long sort of

1098
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 6: been a swing area. It's Nassau County, a little bit

1099
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 6: of Queen's actual in it, but it's been a.

1100
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 7: District that helps us sort of gauge the sort of barometer.

1101
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 6: It's a barometer of political sentiments in the suburbs. And

1102
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 6: it looks like Democrats used abortion, blunted the Republican tax

1103
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,280
Speaker 6: and immigration effectively and won this one pretty handily.

1104
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 5: And also the voting Republicans have put themselves at a

1105
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 5: structural disadvantage by refusing to vote by mail, which then

1106
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 5: puts themselves at the whims of the weather. And if

1107
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:34,239
Speaker 5: there's something crazy like a snowstorm on election day, you're

1108
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:35,720
Speaker 5: going to be in trouble.

1109
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:36,359
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1110
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 5: Like middle of the day, I posted that Republicans refusing

1111
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 5: to vote by mail is going to cost them this

1112
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 5: House seat. It wasn't a hard prediction to make because

1113
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 5: this is by the morning and there was so much

1114
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 5: snow that the polling locations were empty. We actually have

1115
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 5: a clip here from America's mayor outside of his own

1116
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 5: It looks like elementary school talking about the weather a

1117
00:56:59,080 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 5: little bit.

1118
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,240
Speaker 4: Let's roll some Eric Adams here.

1119
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 14: Outing queens p one my whole public school, checking out

1120
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 14: the roads, and clearly you see that DS and wise

1121
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 14: out flow on the streets doing what they're doing best.

1122
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 6: So, just as a visual if if you're listening to this,

1123
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 6: Eric Adams is wearing this seven hundred dollars friendy scarf

1124
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 6: that he wore to a briefing about I think it

1125
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 6: was about migrants last week, and the New York Post

1126
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 6: like Daily Mail wrote it up. And he is holding

1127
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 6: firm standing on his principle and refuses to give up

1128
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 6: the seven hundred dollars.

1129
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 4: Friend, he probably his favorite scarf.

1130
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 6: Well, if you spent seven hundred dollars on a scarf,

1131
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 6: I would.

1132
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,440
Speaker 4: Hope it's your that feels like, must be must be nice.

1133
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 7: Yes, must be nice. Hell of a flex there, Eric Adams.

1134
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 6: But righting, your point is one that a lot of

1135
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 6: people who are on the right are starting to internalize

1136
00:57:55,960 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 6: and realizing, especially that if you're sort of if the

1137
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 6: margins that you're trying to make up maybe with the

1138
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 6: white working class are not energized by a particular candidate,

1139
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 6: and are not energized to get out the vote when

1140
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,520
Speaker 6: there's a snowstorm. If you're not doing the mill in

1141
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 6: voting ahead, you are going to be screwed when there

1142
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 6: is a snowstorm. And you reminded us of this yesterday.

1143
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 6: You had a funny conversation about Reno. Yes, tell us

1144
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 6: because it's a perfect anecdote.

1145
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 5: Yes, during the twenty twenty election or twenty twenty two,

1146
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 5: I think it's twenty two, right, when there was a

1147
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 5: Nevada Senate race up, Yeah, yeah, Republican Senate strategist, I

1148
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 5: was talking to him in the morning and how you look,

1149
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 5: and he's like, we're looking great things.

1150
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 4: Things are looking good for us.

1151
00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:40,000
Speaker 5: As long as there's not a blizzard in Reno on

1152
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 5: election day, and sure enough, blizzard in Reno, Reno, Reno,

1153
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 5: turnout collapses. It also sets up Republicans to get screwed

1154
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 5: by their opponents. So in Arizona, remember there were some

1155
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 5: like Maricopa voting problems that slowed voting down for a

1156
00:58:57,680 --> 00:59:01,480
Speaker 5: couple of hours. Now, yeah, hey, you know sometimes you

1157
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 5: have problems. But think about it. If one party is

1158
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 5: voting ahead of time at a huge proportion, and the

1159
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 5: other party is waiting until election day to vote, but

1160
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 5: the party that does all of its early voting also

1161
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 5: controls all the cities and therefore controls the voting yes

1162
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:24,480
Speaker 5: in those cities. Not that they would do this, but

1163
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 5: it does allow them the opportunity to forget a printer cartridge,

1164
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 5: or if somebody forgot a password, and you know what,

1165
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 5: we got to reboot the computers. Real shame, Sorry about this.

1166
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 5: Voting is going to be a little bit of a

1167
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:41,480
Speaker 5: pain here at this center. You might have to vote

1168
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 5: provisionally over here. Don't worry, we'll take care of it.

1169
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 5: Not that anybody would do that, but it does set

1170
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:51,200
Speaker 5: you up for a situation where you're you're putting your

1171
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:54,280
Speaker 5: entire fate in the hands of the good Lord and

1172
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 5: his good weather, or the good Democrats and their willingness

1173
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 5: to run smooth elections for you because all of their

1174
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:06,439
Speaker 5: voters have already voted. It's the level of short term

1175
01:00:06,480 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 5: thinking is incredible, and it's happening at the same time

1176
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 5: that the realignment is making it so Republicans have a

1177
01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 5: lot more attenemant voters.

1178
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:22,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, if you're a suburban your suburban now sort of

1179
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 6: upper middle class, how are.

1180
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 4: Your polling places, you're a homeowner, or you get.

1181
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 7: Your ballot in the mail and you will return it early.

1182
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 5: You're going to vote, like you can put up all

1183
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 5: the voter suppression tools in front of that you have

1184
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 5: at your disposal, those people are going to vote. That

1185
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 5: was the theory for Republicans through the eighties and nineties

1186
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 5: and way before that too, that Democratic voters, if you

1187
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 5: put in universal voter suppression efforts like forcing people to

1188
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 5: jump through a bunch of different hoops, that Democratic voters

1189
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:55,440
Speaker 5: were poor, more working class, it was going to be

1190
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 5: harder for them to get through those hoops, and it

1191
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 5: would be an advantage to Republicans.

1192
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 4: That's now flipped.

1193
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 5: And if you put up hurdles for everybody, Democratic voters

1194
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 5: are now going to be able to get through those

1195
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 5: hoops more than the Republican voters who might jump through

1196
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 5: hoops and hoops on fire for Donald Trump, but other

1197
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:18,520
Speaker 5: than him. And I'm like it's snowing, I'm like showing

1198
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 5: up today.

1199
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,880
Speaker 6: Just from a conservative perspective, this was a raging debate.

1200
01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:24,959
Speaker 6: It still is a debate, but it was a raging

1201
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 6: debate for a while as to whether you just adapt

1202
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 6: vote by mail or you basically try to convince your

1203
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:37,040
Speaker 6: candidates to have plans that would totally tighten up elections.

1204
01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 6: And personally, I detest mail in voting. I think it's

1205
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 6: very I think it's an insecure voting method and it's

1206
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 6: easily manipulated. That said, if you are not coupling all

1207
01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 6: of this with some strategy to actually limit mail in

1208
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 6: voting and make it so that people have to go

1209
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 6: to the polls on election day, I'm like one of

1210
01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 6: the people that leaves.

1211
01:02:00,280 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 7: It should just be a day.

1212
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:03,400
Speaker 6: You should give people off, you should make it a

1213
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 6: holiday and vote that day. Unless you're you know, in

1214
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 6: the military or disabled, or have some like obvious mitigating circumstance.

1215
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:12,240
Speaker 7: I think that's the best way to do it.

1216
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:17,000
Speaker 6: But but if that's not happening, which is just hard

1217
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:19,440
Speaker 6: to see how that's happening, we're like, we're not moving

1218
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 6: towards that on a policy level. And Republicans, I think

1219
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 6: to some extent, are going to put their heads and

1220
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 6: be baring their heads in the sand. If they think

1221
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 6: that's coming and that's doable on any type of mass scale,

1222
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:31,640
Speaker 6: then you're really going to be screwed when this type

1223
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 6: of thing happens. Now, ryan to be fair, the Sposey

1224
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:37,400
Speaker 6: would have won won this race, no storm or not.

1225
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:39,160
Speaker 5: It looks like it does look like that because the

1226
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:42,480
Speaker 5: polls had him up by a cup between one and three,

1227
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:46,360
Speaker 5: and I think the eight point when you could maybe

1228
01:02:46,400 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 5: contribute half that to poor Republican turnout on election day.

1229
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:51,440
Speaker 5: People can sort through the numbers more. But yes, it

1230
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 5: does look like regardless, he would have won. But when

1231
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 5: control of the House is hinges on a couple of seats,

1232
01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 5: and you always have dozens of seats that hinge on

1233
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 5: just a couple thousand votes, then.

1234
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 4: It will it will end up mattering.

1235
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 6: Pillip is actually, by the way, still a registered Democrat.

1236
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 6: And so when you want to get high Republican turnout

1237
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 6: and enthusiasm for somebody who's being pushed on why she

1238
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 6: hasn't changed her registration from being a Democrat. She got

1239
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 6: questions from local journalists about this. That's going to be

1240
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 6: very difficult.

1241
01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 7: She said.

1242
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 6: The Democratic Party left her, which can be a persuasive

1243
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 6: and convincing message if you had.

1244
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 4: Changed your voter registration.

1245
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 6: May so, I think there's going to be a lot

1246
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:35,120
Speaker 6: of speculation just that she was really not a good candidate.

1247
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:37,000
Speaker 6: She didn't seem to want to campaign. A lot of

1248
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,560
Speaker 6: people said she was kind of Mia from the campaign trail.

1249
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 6: They were relying very heavily on surrogates. One of the

1250
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:46,439
Speaker 6: interesting things is that Santos got money and acclaim when

1251
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 6: he was running for the checking off a lot of

1252
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 6: the identity politics boxes. This is suburban area, so he's

1253
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 6: a gay minority Republican and was able to sort of

1254
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:00,200
Speaker 6: be Mago without being Mago.

1255
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 4: Money just by swiping people's credit.

1256
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 6: Well he did that too, but money from like the

1257
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 6: Republican Party.

1258
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 7: They were like.

1259
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 6: Excited about him and pill Up by the way I

1260
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 6: think probably excited Republicans for similar reasons, which is fascinating

1261
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 6: because it shows just the utter stupidity of Republicans who think,

1262
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:20,560
Speaker 6: you know, if we can just check off the identity

1263
01:04:20,560 --> 01:04:23,120
Speaker 6: politics boxes, we'll convince everybody that we're cool.

1264
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 7: Like, yeah, you guys are doing it.

1265
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:27,840
Speaker 5: One funny point on her voter registration. You know how

1266
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 5: everybody always says I didn't leave my party. My party

1267
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 5: left me. She literally didn't leave her party.

1268
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 7: She didn't.

1269
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:36,480
Speaker 4: She meant that literally, like I didn't leave my party.

1270
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 4: So right before we were well they're all still registered

1271
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:40,400
Speaker 4: Democrats too, She's like, well, I thought they left.

1272
01:04:40,600 --> 01:04:41,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, I thought they were gone.

1273
01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:46,000
Speaker 6: So let's actually roll this clip of protesters at Swazi's

1274
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 6: election victory party, basically.

1275
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 4: Where Democrats go.

1276
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:53,320
Speaker 6: Notice his protesting, yeah, robotic, Like he actually looks like

1277
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 6: an animatronic guy at Disney World when they're protesting, and

1278
01:04:56,240 --> 01:04:59,600
Speaker 6: he just keeps fist pumping. So take a close look

1279
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 6: at that, and I'm going to ask grand his thoughts

1280
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 6: on how Swazi will govern.

1281
01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 5: Okay, the very end, you step protests just like thrown

1282
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:28,000
Speaker 5: off the stage.

1283
01:05:29,120 --> 01:05:31,560
Speaker 4: So I turned from a normal protest to hope that

1284
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 4: person's okay pretty quickly.

1285
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 6: Yes, And you made the point that Swazi, first of all,

1286
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 6: he did her attack to the center on immigration, and

1287
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 6: you made the point about not a lot of daylight

1288
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:45,080
Speaker 6: between him and pill Up on Israel.

1289
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 5: Like and everything else, Like he's a very kind of

1290
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 5: center right standard like he's not even actually today's standard

1291
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 5: Democrat is more like a center left one where he's

1292
01:05:55,880 --> 01:05:58,840
Speaker 5: more of an old school kind of blue dog center right,

1293
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 5: suburban suburban democrat. In his in his victory speech, he

1294
01:06:03,320 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 5: kind of went after the squad a little bit and

1295
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:10,600
Speaker 5: also said he's going to make sure that your state

1296
01:06:10,600 --> 01:06:13,320
Speaker 5: and local taxes can be deducted from her like that.

1297
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 5: That was in his victory speech, and I got a

1298
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:17,400
Speaker 5: big cheer also.

1299
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 7: That does always does it for those blue dog down.

1300
01:06:19,560 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, these are so if you make a bunch of

1301
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:26,880
Speaker 5: money in Long Island, what he's basically telling you is

1302
01:06:26,880 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 5: that you're going to get a nice tax break.

1303
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 7: Sounds good.

1304
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:32,160
Speaker 4: Sounds good for those people in Long Island and make

1305
01:06:32,200 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 4: a lot of money.

1306
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 6: And Republicans were hoping definitely that the sort of general

1307
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:42,400
Speaker 6: Biden malaise would bring Swazi down. And if that's the case,

1308
01:06:42,400 --> 01:06:44,680
Speaker 6: if that brought Swazi down. He's still won by eight points.

1309
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:46,520
Speaker 4: That's not the district where it's going to bring him down.

1310
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:53,320
Speaker 6: So actually, on that point, let's talk about new inflation numbers.

1311
01:06:53,360 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 6: Because Paul Kregman is out with a column that says

1312
01:06:56,600 --> 01:06:58,800
Speaker 6: Biden should be running on the election. This is a

1313
01:06:58,840 --> 01:07:02,320
Speaker 6: repeat of what New York Times columnists. And he's won

1314
01:07:02,480 --> 01:07:03,680
Speaker 6: a Pulitzer, hasn't he?

1315
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:07,880
Speaker 4: Krugman a Nobut Pulitzy definitely want a Nobel.

1316
01:07:07,680 --> 01:07:10,760
Speaker 6: Bro He want a Nobel Prize as well, one of them.

1317
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 6: But yes, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman has repeatedly

1318
01:07:14,840 --> 01:07:16,840
Speaker 6: in the pages of the New York Times been telling

1319
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 6: people that the economy they sense as bad is actually fine,

1320
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 6: and from his vantage point in Manhattan, they're wrong about

1321
01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:26,680
Speaker 6: how they feel in the economy, and right, I think

1322
01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 6: some of these inflation numbers we can put this first

1323
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:31,000
Speaker 6: element up on the screen.

1324
01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:32,320
Speaker 7: I think some of these.

1325
01:07:32,160 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 6: Inflation numbers explain why both Biden and Krugman are having

1326
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:39,520
Speaker 6: a hard time making that case. When we got the

1327
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 6: January inflation data, consumer prices rose three point one percent

1328
01:07:43,560 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 6: in January twenty twenty four from a year before. According

1329
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:49,920
Speaker 6: to the Wall Street Journal. They rose the fastest for

1330
01:07:50,000 --> 01:07:54,120
Speaker 6: frozen non carbonated juices and drinks. That's a very specific

1331
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:57,080
Speaker 6: place where inflection saw. It was a change from twenty

1332
01:07:57,120 --> 01:07:59,200
Speaker 6: nine percent of twenty nine percent from prices a year ago.

1333
01:07:59,240 --> 01:08:02,440
Speaker 6: This month had the largest drop. They fell from twenty

1334
01:08:02,520 --> 01:08:09,440
Speaker 6: eight point six percent. Let's roll this clip. Let's roll

1335
01:08:09,480 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 6: this clip on inflation. This was actually posted by the RNC,

1336
01:08:15,040 --> 01:08:16,439
Speaker 6: and you can sort of see why they might have

1337
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:16,960
Speaker 6: posted it.

1338
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:17,600
Speaker 7: Let's roll it.

1339
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 15: Headline number expected to be up two tenths of a percent,

1340
01:08:21,520 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 15: is up three tens of percent. That's the hottest SINCEEP

1341
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:26,719
Speaker 15: of twenty three, when it was up.

1342
01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:27,799
Speaker 4: Four tenths of percent.

1343
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:31,439
Speaker 15: Strip out food and energy even hotter, up four tenths

1344
01:08:31,479 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 15: of a percent. Also one tenth hotter than expected, up

1345
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 15: four tens of percent. Well, you equal that going to

1346
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:41,200
Speaker 15: May of last year. You surpassed it going to April

1347
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 15: of last year when it was up point five. The

1348
01:08:43,960 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 15: year over year numbers also hotter three point one. On

1349
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:52,080
Speaker 15: headline year over year, we're expecting two point nine, but

1350
01:08:52,400 --> 01:08:55,879
Speaker 15: did make progress versus the rear view mirror, which stands

1351
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:57,320
Speaker 15: at three point four.

1352
01:08:57,640 --> 01:08:59,720
Speaker 7: Now, if you consider three point.

1353
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 15: One we've already been there. We were there in November

1354
01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:05,759
Speaker 15: of last year, and we were at three point oh

1355
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:10,400
Speaker 15: in June of last year. Finally, CPI year over year core.

1356
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:13,639
Speaker 15: I think one of the ones I'm paying most attention

1357
01:09:13,800 --> 01:09:18,160
Speaker 15: to three point nine percent exactly is the recent month

1358
01:09:18,200 --> 01:09:21,680
Speaker 15: December three point nine, two tenths hotter than expected.

1359
01:09:22,600 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 6: So let's also run this clip of Jillian Michaels on

1360
01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 6: Bill Maher. She actually specifically mentions the price of eggs, which,

1361
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:30,800
Speaker 6: as we saw, just had the biggest job. But she

1362
01:09:31,000 --> 01:09:32,720
Speaker 6: sort of went to totel with Bill Maher on his

1363
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:33,960
Speaker 6: show about inflation.

1364
01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 7: Let's roll that up.

1365
01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:37,320
Speaker 1: But this is an amazing to you, Like it was

1366
01:09:37,360 --> 01:09:40,800
Speaker 1: in the paper today about this country came out of

1367
01:09:40,840 --> 01:09:44,360
Speaker 1: the pandemic way better than we just fucked. We won

1368
01:09:44,400 --> 01:09:48,599
Speaker 1: the pandemic economically, I mean, America, I don't feel that way.

1369
01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:51,639
Speaker 7: Explain it to me. I feel like inflation's insane number.

1370
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 1: Every inflation is not insane, bil I hope there's numbers.

1371
01:09:57,600 --> 01:09:59,200
Speaker 1: I understand things.

1372
01:09:59,160 --> 01:10:05,000
Speaker 7: But it has tripled here. Look, I get that.

1373
01:10:05,120 --> 01:10:15,400
Speaker 1: People buy some fucking eggs, feelings, and then there's the numbers. Ok,

1374
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:18,280
Speaker 1: then the numbers, well, the numbers have come down a

1375
01:10:18,280 --> 01:10:22,400
Speaker 1: lot in the last six months. Of course they were.

1376
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:26,720
Speaker 1: It was inevitable when we gave six trillion dollars so

1377
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:29,040
Speaker 1: that everybody could hide under the bed from the forever

1378
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:31,120
Speaker 1: flu that was never going to end.

1379
01:10:31,160 --> 01:10:33,600
Speaker 7: Well, it was taken by the richest people ever, and

1380
01:10:33,920 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 7: it was.

1381
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:36,880
Speaker 1: A lot of it was stolen. It was it was

1382
01:10:37,000 --> 01:10:39,519
Speaker 1: we agree on that too. It was like it was

1383
01:10:39,560 --> 01:10:42,160
Speaker 1: there some response needed. Of course, you don't want the

1384
01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:46,760
Speaker 1: hospitals overrun, but it was just a massive overreaction and

1385
01:10:46,800 --> 01:10:48,479
Speaker 1: that did cause some of the inflation.

1386
01:10:49,200 --> 01:10:50,639
Speaker 6: What do you make of that, Ryan, because I think

1387
01:10:50,640 --> 01:10:52,160
Speaker 6: when you look at the inflation numbers, and you and

1388
01:10:52,200 --> 01:10:55,000
Speaker 6: I were talking a little bit about this, Uh, they

1389
01:10:55,080 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 6: have gone down, but they've gone down from such a

1390
01:10:58,120 --> 01:11:01,280
Speaker 6: high that they're still high. So saying that they've gone

1391
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:04,639
Speaker 6: down is not enough to say. And also, by the way,

1392
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:09,799
Speaker 6: if you're experiencing like, for example, vehicle insurance, car insurance

1393
01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:13,040
Speaker 6: is one of those things that is like extremely high

1394
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:15,960
Speaker 6: right now, so for different people experience.

1395
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:22,799
Speaker 5: Because of carjackings and breakings exactly. Also actually significantly because

1396
01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 5: of severe weather like storms, and this is so a

1397
01:11:28,320 --> 01:11:30,280
Speaker 5: significant This is I'm glad you brought this up. A

1398
01:11:30,280 --> 01:11:34,040
Speaker 5: significant driver of the overall inflation number, believe it or not,

1399
01:11:34,920 --> 01:11:40,040
Speaker 5: is the price of car insurance, and a significant driver

1400
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:43,000
Speaker 5: the price of car insurance is not just the theft,

1401
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:50,560
Speaker 5: but more more precisely the number of storms, floods, hurricanes,

1402
01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:55,080
Speaker 5: just damage being done by extreme weather events to cars.

1403
01:11:56,160 --> 01:12:00,320
Speaker 5: And so it's it's a way that kind of climate

1404
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:03,600
Speaker 5: change is creeping into our kind of just our just

1405
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:07,000
Speaker 5: general life in a way beyond kind of the obvious

1406
01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 5: of like oh wow, it's a whole lot warmer, and

1407
01:12:10,439 --> 01:12:12,320
Speaker 5: and like there's droughts everywhere.

1408
01:12:12,400 --> 01:12:15,240
Speaker 6: If you don't find yourself buying car insurance, then you know,

1409
01:12:15,360 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 6: especially if you're really urban and you don't have a car,

1410
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 6: youly in public transportation, then this is a part of

1411
01:12:20,479 --> 01:12:22,280
Speaker 6: inflation that you're just not experiencing.

1412
01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:25,599
Speaker 7: It's totally out of your mind, out side, out of mind.

1413
01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:27,680
Speaker 5: You can and for everybody else who is experiencing it,

1414
01:12:27,720 --> 01:12:29,760
Speaker 5: you see it, you see your numbers go up.

1415
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:31,479
Speaker 4: But the way you feel is you.

1416
01:12:31,439 --> 01:12:33,720
Speaker 5: Just have less money in your bank account because you

1417
01:12:33,760 --> 01:12:35,880
Speaker 5: know you're probably doing automatic withdrawal.

1418
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:37,800
Speaker 4: It's like, wait, why do I what's going on here?

1419
01:12:37,800 --> 01:12:40,639
Speaker 5: And so it's just a it just contributes to this

1420
01:12:40,840 --> 01:12:44,720
Speaker 5: kind of overall sense that you're running faster and like

1421
01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:47,360
Speaker 5: in a dream and just not being able to move as.

1422
01:12:47,040 --> 01:12:50,559
Speaker 6: Quickly, And depending on where you are, gas prices for example,

1423
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:52,519
Speaker 6: are really really bad or okay.

1424
01:12:53,320 --> 01:12:54,880
Speaker 7: So there are a lot of different.

1425
01:12:54,600 --> 01:12:57,920
Speaker 6: Parts of the economy that if you're experiencing this different person, well,

1426
01:12:57,960 --> 01:12:59,879
Speaker 6: you can look at, you know, maybe the overall basket

1427
01:13:00,240 --> 01:13:02,920
Speaker 6: down over the last couple of years. You can see

1428
01:13:02,960 --> 01:13:04,960
Speaker 6: where a lot of Americans don't feel good about it.

1429
01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:07,599
Speaker 6: And yes, to the point that we were talking about earlier,

1430
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 6: it was so bad that dropping from it being so

1431
01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:13,120
Speaker 6: bad to just being bad is not.

1432
01:13:13,080 --> 01:13:14,320
Speaker 7: A great line for Biden to run on.

1433
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:17,960
Speaker 5: I think you've got some precise numbers there, But since

1434
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:19,880
Speaker 5: Biden was sworn in, and I think this is the

1435
01:13:19,960 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 5: key thing that people like Krugman need to keep in mind,

1436
01:13:23,840 --> 01:13:26,920
Speaker 5: Inflation has run it roughly since I think seventeen is

1437
01:13:27,200 --> 01:13:30,439
Speaker 5: seventeen percent. Things are seventeen percent more expensive now than

1438
01:13:30,479 --> 01:13:33,400
Speaker 5: they were when Biden was sworn in, and hourly wages

1439
01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:37,360
Speaker 5: are up like thirteen or fourteen percent, which means that

1440
01:13:37,439 --> 01:13:40,280
Speaker 5: your purchasing power is down, like your standard of living

1441
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:40,599
Speaker 5: is down.

1442
01:13:40,680 --> 01:13:42,599
Speaker 4: You're poorer than you were when.

1443
01:13:42,520 --> 01:13:46,400
Speaker 5: He was torn in Yes, and people don't people watch

1444
01:13:46,520 --> 01:13:49,400
Speaker 5: gas prices moving day to day. But I think the

1445
01:13:49,439 --> 01:13:52,520
Speaker 5: way that they understand prices is on a longer timeline,

1446
01:13:52,720 --> 01:13:55,679
Speaker 5: thinking back a couple of years. And you also remember

1447
01:13:55,920 --> 01:13:58,960
Speaker 5: kind of the best moments more than you remember and

1448
01:13:59,000 --> 01:14:00,760
Speaker 5: you remember the worst moment, but you don't remember the

1449
01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:03,120
Speaker 5: ones in between as much. So it's easy to think

1450
01:14:03,200 --> 01:14:07,760
Speaker 5: like there was that brutal period of inflation and things

1451
01:14:07,760 --> 01:14:10,880
Speaker 5: have not really come down. And yes, wages are up

1452
01:14:10,880 --> 01:14:12,960
Speaker 5: for a lot of people, but wage gains are not

1453
01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:16,439
Speaker 5: distributed evenly. Wage gains are distributed to people who switch jobs.

1454
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 5: You get some you know, you know, some colas at

1455
01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:21,800
Speaker 5: the end of the year if you stay in your job,

1456
01:14:21,840 --> 01:14:24,880
Speaker 5: but oftentimes you have to switch jobs to get that raise.

1457
01:14:25,280 --> 01:14:28,519
Speaker 5: And so when we say that you know, hourly wages

1458
01:14:28,520 --> 01:14:31,800
Speaker 5: are up thirteen percent, it doesn't mean everybody's wages are

1459
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:38,439
Speaker 5: up thirteen percent. Psychologically, also, people understand price increases as

1460
01:14:38,680 --> 01:14:42,920
Speaker 5: not their fault, somebody else's fault, actually the president's fault,

1461
01:14:43,240 --> 01:14:45,360
Speaker 5: Like that's that's his problem, that's his fault.

1462
01:14:45,400 --> 01:14:47,360
Speaker 4: Why I'm paying more for these things?

1463
01:14:47,760 --> 01:14:51,800
Speaker 5: If your wages go up unless you're an effective communicator

1464
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:55,439
Speaker 5: like an FDR or somebody, and you're seeing like a

1465
01:14:55,479 --> 01:14:58,880
Speaker 5: mass kind of labor movement. Most people are going to say,

1466
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 5: my wages are up because I'm a good worker and

1467
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:04,120
Speaker 5: because I deserve those wages. And you are a good worker,

1468
01:15:04,120 --> 01:15:06,639
Speaker 5: and you do deserve those wages. But your wages are

1469
01:15:06,640 --> 01:15:10,879
Speaker 5: also up because of macroeconomic policies that have given workers

1470
01:15:11,280 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 5: more power. But so that's why I think the economy

1471
01:15:14,439 --> 01:15:17,320
Speaker 5: is so tough in this moment, because people are not

1472
01:15:17,320 --> 01:15:21,439
Speaker 5: going to give credit for their wages to bidens.

1473
01:15:21,760 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 4: They feel like they did that.

1474
01:15:23,000 --> 01:15:25,080
Speaker 5: But they are going to blame Biden for the fact

1475
01:15:25,080 --> 01:15:27,120
Speaker 5: that things are more expensive. And then you layer on

1476
01:15:27,160 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 5: top of that the most important thing, which is housing.

1477
01:15:30,120 --> 01:15:33,960
Speaker 5: Housing is now so expensive and gobbling up everybody's income

1478
01:15:34,320 --> 01:15:37,200
Speaker 5: that if that, even if your wages are up in

1479
01:15:37,240 --> 01:15:42,280
Speaker 5: this core inflation minus shelter is coming down, you're still

1480
01:15:42,320 --> 01:15:43,160
Speaker 5: suffering from that.

1481
01:15:43,400 --> 01:15:45,640
Speaker 7: And if you're already own your house, then you're not

1482
01:15:45,680 --> 01:15:46,240
Speaker 7: experiencing that.

1483
01:15:46,400 --> 01:15:51,400
Speaker 5: But three percent unemployment and wages growing faster than inflation,

1484
01:15:51,439 --> 01:15:54,639
Speaker 5: which we have now is good and I think people

1485
01:15:54,640 --> 01:15:57,880
Speaker 5: should not forget that. And also to defend Bill Maher's

1486
01:15:57,880 --> 01:16:01,200
Speaker 5: point there, compared to the rest of the world, if

1487
01:16:01,200 --> 01:16:03,680
Speaker 5: he's going to say we won the pandemic, we're doing

1488
01:16:03,760 --> 01:16:06,439
Speaker 5: better than anywhere else in the world. Everywhere else in

1489
01:16:06,479 --> 01:16:12,719
Speaker 5: the world has worse unemployment and higher inflation, So that

1490
01:16:12,720 --> 01:16:14,480
Speaker 5: that does deserve to be underlined.

1491
01:16:14,600 --> 01:16:18,280
Speaker 6: So one of the things Biden started early in his administration,

1492
01:16:18,600 --> 01:16:20,880
Speaker 6: first of all comparing himself to FDR and having John

1493
01:16:20,960 --> 01:16:23,360
Speaker 6: Meacham tell him, you know, how comfortable he was the

1494
01:16:23,439 --> 01:16:26,360
Speaker 6: FDR in the Oval Office, but also talking about how

1495
01:16:26,360 --> 01:16:28,360
Speaker 6: he was going to tackle corporate greed because corporate greed

1496
01:16:28,400 --> 01:16:31,080
Speaker 6: was a huge driver of inflation. That talk is basically

1497
01:16:31,120 --> 01:16:33,080
Speaker 6: absent from the White House right now. It seems like

1498
01:16:33,120 --> 01:16:37,280
Speaker 6: they've decided on the strategy to just ignore consumer prices

1499
01:16:37,360 --> 01:16:40,679
Speaker 6: and wage growth and not talk about it. You see

1500
01:16:40,680 --> 01:16:43,520
Speaker 6: them every few weeks like try to trot out Bidenomics,

1501
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:47,679
Speaker 6: but they've largely kind of given it up, and they

1502
01:16:47,800 --> 01:16:50,599
Speaker 6: talked in these sort of broad sweeping terms about how

1503
01:16:50,680 --> 01:16:51,960
Speaker 6: Americans are all better off.

1504
01:16:52,120 --> 01:16:53,320
Speaker 7: But it seems like their.

1505
01:16:53,200 --> 01:16:56,479
Speaker 6: New strategy is just to ignore inflation altogether rather than

1506
01:16:56,880 --> 01:16:59,400
Speaker 6: pinning it on corporate greed. Because Biden came in office

1507
01:16:59,439 --> 01:17:02,559
Speaker 6: pledging to hackle corporate greed and pledging to make uh.

1508
01:17:02,680 --> 01:17:04,519
Speaker 7: You know, by some estimates it's more.

1509
01:17:04,400 --> 01:17:07,360
Speaker 6: Than it accounts for more than half of inflation, and

1510
01:17:07,600 --> 01:17:10,040
Speaker 6: people can dispute that, but it accounts for a significant

1511
01:17:10,040 --> 01:17:12,799
Speaker 6: trunk of inflation, the corporate price bouging.

1512
01:17:12,920 --> 01:17:15,559
Speaker 7: Essentially, he said he was going to He said he

1513
01:17:15,640 --> 01:17:16,479
Speaker 7: was going to tackle it.

1514
01:17:16,560 --> 01:17:18,200
Speaker 4: And that's probably the FTC.

1515
01:17:18,360 --> 01:17:21,559
Speaker 5: Leana Khan and the FTC and the anti trust folks

1516
01:17:21,560 --> 01:17:24,080
Speaker 5: at the d J are suing everybody all over the

1517
01:17:24,080 --> 01:17:27,240
Speaker 5: place and winning some serious cases. But yeah, it's not

1518
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:30,719
Speaker 5: it hasn't. It hasn't been rhetorically uh, front, front and center.

1519
01:17:30,760 --> 01:17:33,680
Speaker 5: But it is one of the strongest parts I think

1520
01:17:33,720 --> 01:17:37,320
Speaker 5: of the the of the Biden administration that you know,

1521
01:17:37,360 --> 01:17:39,960
Speaker 5: Trump is really happy to see these numbers because I

1522
01:17:39,960 --> 01:17:42,920
Speaker 5: think Trump's huge fear is that between now and the

1523
01:17:42,920 --> 01:17:46,320
Speaker 5: election there will be an interest rate cut, which which

1524
01:17:46,360 --> 01:17:49,800
Speaker 5: would then you know, you know, spur another stock market boom,

1525
01:17:49,880 --> 01:17:53,080
Speaker 5: which people will say, well, you know, only half the

1526
01:17:53,080 --> 01:17:58,160
Speaker 5: country has hold stocks. But it also does produce vibes,

1527
01:17:58,360 --> 01:18:01,800
Speaker 5: infects the mood. Yeah, and also it will it will

1528
01:18:02,040 --> 01:18:06,880
Speaker 5: it would push down interest rates on mortgages and so

1529
01:18:07,400 --> 01:18:10,000
Speaker 5: people then would be able to start to say, you know,

1530
01:18:10,040 --> 01:18:12,000
Speaker 5: right now, people are just locked in, like people who

1531
01:18:12,479 --> 01:18:14,519
Speaker 5: people who own a home are locked in with with

1532
01:18:14,600 --> 01:18:18,479
Speaker 5: their like awesome little three percent interest rates that they

1533
01:18:18,560 --> 01:18:22,880
Speaker 5: that they refinance during during the pandemic, and if you

1534
01:18:23,000 --> 01:18:25,719
Speaker 5: don't have a home, you're staring at, you know, something

1535
01:18:25,840 --> 01:18:28,080
Speaker 5: like seven or eight percent interest rates on a on

1536
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:32,040
Speaker 5: a mortgage, which means that the kind of house you

1537
01:18:32,040 --> 01:18:36,360
Speaker 5: can afford is doesn't meet what you need. And so

1538
01:18:36,439 --> 01:18:39,160
Speaker 5: everybody's locked out. It's like a game of musical chairs

1539
01:18:39,200 --> 01:18:42,360
Speaker 5: that music just stopped. When interest rates come back down,

1540
01:18:42,640 --> 01:18:44,680
Speaker 5: that's the music coming back on you. And you're going

1541
01:18:44,760 --> 01:18:49,280
Speaker 5: to see kind of a lot of wealth flow into

1542
01:18:49,320 --> 01:18:51,599
Speaker 5: the economy because finally people will be able to sell

1543
01:18:51,600 --> 01:18:54,760
Speaker 5: their houses and you know, there's a lot of pent

1544
01:18:54,840 --> 01:18:57,560
Speaker 5: up demand for people to move, and people will be

1545
01:18:57,600 --> 01:19:00,000
Speaker 5: able to buy houses. Finally if you get interest rates

1546
01:19:00,000 --> 01:19:01,920
Speaker 5: mortgage let's you say you get mortgage rates back down

1547
01:19:01,920 --> 01:19:04,960
Speaker 5: to like stay five percent or something. This eight percent stuff.

1548
01:19:05,200 --> 01:19:08,280
Speaker 5: You know people say in the eighties it was you

1549
01:19:08,560 --> 01:19:11,120
Speaker 5: got up to sixteen twenty percent, which is insane, but

1550
01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:15,400
Speaker 5: also houses cost like twenty thousand dollars when it houses

1551
01:19:15,439 --> 01:19:19,439
Speaker 5: like five hundred thousand dollars. That is a whole different

1552
01:19:19,439 --> 01:19:20,200
Speaker 5: can of worms.

1553
01:19:20,400 --> 01:19:22,240
Speaker 6: All right, Ryan, we have a really interesting guest that

1554
01:19:22,280 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 6: you brought in. I'm excited to get to Shaba's gill

1555
01:19:24,920 --> 01:19:27,320
Speaker 6: right after this. Well, that does it for today's edition

1556
01:19:27,400 --> 01:19:30,639
Speaker 6: of Counterpoints, Ryan, Shabbaz is a very busy man.

1557
01:19:30,840 --> 01:19:32,920
Speaker 7: As people may have heard.

1558
01:19:32,840 --> 01:19:34,760
Speaker 4: We said we had Shabaz Gil. It was a lie.

1559
01:19:34,840 --> 01:19:37,200
Speaker 4: We did not have did not have Shabaz Gil.

1560
01:19:37,240 --> 01:19:40,400
Speaker 5: Although he although he was booked, he's in the US

1561
01:19:40,560 --> 01:19:42,080
Speaker 5: operating on Pakistan time.

1562
01:19:43,439 --> 01:19:46,840
Speaker 4: I suspect he might not be awake. Yeah, but we will.

1563
01:19:46,880 --> 01:19:48,080
Speaker 4: We will rebook him again.

1564
01:19:48,360 --> 01:19:51,960
Speaker 5: Shabbaz Is was I Ron Khan's chief of staff while

1565
01:19:51,960 --> 01:19:53,800
Speaker 5: I Ron Khan was Prime Minister, and he's now kind

1566
01:19:53,800 --> 01:19:56,360
Speaker 5: of his American representative.

1567
01:19:56,400 --> 01:19:56,840
Speaker 4: These are.

1568
01:19:58,920 --> 01:20:03,799
Speaker 5: In tense days for anybody involved in Pakistani politics, for sure,

1569
01:20:05,120 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 5: because right now also, and maybe we can add this

1570
01:20:09,080 --> 01:20:15,080
Speaker 5: in posts, but Korean Jean Pierre was asked about the

1571
01:20:15,680 --> 01:20:21,560
Speaker 5: Pakistan elections recently and what she said actually maybe unintentionally

1572
01:20:21,640 --> 01:20:25,599
Speaker 5: mirrors what Imran Khan's party has been saying lately. She says,

1573
01:20:25,640 --> 01:20:30,200
Speaker 5: we need to respect the will of the election, respect

1574
01:20:30,200 --> 01:20:31,000
Speaker 5: the will of the people.

1575
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:32,880
Speaker 4: In the election and a lot of the state departments.

1576
01:20:32,960 --> 01:20:35,400
Speaker 5: Thing that members of Congress have been saying that the

1577
01:20:35,439 --> 01:20:37,960
Speaker 5: phrase PTI in Ron Khan's party has been using is

1578
01:20:38,080 --> 01:20:41,200
Speaker 5: respect the mandate. I don't even know if they know

1579
01:20:41,320 --> 01:20:44,479
Speaker 5: that they're almost mirroring the messaging from Imran Khan's party,

1580
01:20:44,960 --> 01:20:47,880
Speaker 5: because what Imran Khan means by respect the mandate is

1581
01:20:47,920 --> 01:20:52,760
Speaker 5: that they can prove with documentation given to them by

1582
01:20:52,880 --> 01:20:56,320
Speaker 5: polling locations, that they won one hundred and eighty seats

1583
01:20:56,320 --> 01:20:59,960
Speaker 5: in the National Assembly, which is a majority and means

1584
01:21:00,080 --> 01:21:04,080
Speaker 5: they can form a government. The military establishment there has

1585
01:21:05,080 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 5: gutted that and changed the numbers and is claiming that

1586
01:21:08,240 --> 01:21:11,120
Speaker 5: they have something like a ninety seat victory, which is

1587
01:21:11,160 --> 01:21:15,599
Speaker 5: still more than anybody else, including Nawaz Sharif's party, who

1588
01:21:15,600 --> 01:21:20,240
Speaker 5: is the military backed candidate Connis saying respect the mandate

1589
01:21:20,320 --> 01:21:21,639
Speaker 5: give us one hundred and eighty seats.

1590
01:21:21,760 --> 01:21:23,559
Speaker 6: Is it fair to say he's also the US backed

1591
01:21:23,600 --> 01:21:24,880
Speaker 6: candidate Nuwaj Sharif.

1592
01:21:25,080 --> 01:21:29,439
Speaker 5: Absolutely yes, the US and military back candidates Nawaj Shreef.

1593
01:21:29,640 --> 01:21:34,080
Speaker 5: Here's what's hilarious. The documents also show that Nowaz Sharif

1594
01:21:34,320 --> 01:21:39,559
Speaker 5: himself lost his own race in the National Assembly by

1595
01:21:39,600 --> 01:21:42,599
Speaker 5: something like fifty thousand votes to a woman who's in.

1596
01:21:42,520 --> 01:21:43,599
Speaker 4: Prison right now.

1597
01:21:44,320 --> 01:21:46,920
Speaker 5: But they changed all the numbers so that he can win,

1598
01:21:46,960 --> 01:21:50,240
Speaker 5: because actually, if he loses, he can't become prime minister

1599
01:21:50,439 --> 01:21:52,920
Speaker 5: because you have to be in the National Assembly to

1600
01:21:53,000 --> 01:21:55,360
Speaker 5: become prime minister. Now, there could be some workarounds because

1601
01:21:55,360 --> 01:21:57,840
Speaker 5: there are some set aside seats for people who win,

1602
01:21:57,920 --> 01:22:00,479
Speaker 5: so they could give him one of the set aside seats,

1603
01:22:00,800 --> 01:22:03,880
Speaker 5: but it would be an absolute complete humiliation for him

1604
01:22:03,880 --> 01:22:06,280
Speaker 5: to lose his own race. It's like when the when

1605
01:22:06,320 --> 01:22:09,000
Speaker 5: the Democratic Speaker of the House lost in like the

1606
01:22:09,080 --> 01:22:12,880
Speaker 5: nineteen eighties, lost his race, but he didn't lose it

1607
01:22:13,040 --> 01:22:14,759
Speaker 5: in the nineteen eighties to a woman in prison.

1608
01:22:15,280 --> 01:22:19,679
Speaker 4: That his own kind of force is imprisoned and her.

1609
01:22:20,360 --> 01:22:25,680
Speaker 5: Defeat of him from prison is symbolic of the refusal

1610
01:22:25,720 --> 01:22:29,479
Speaker 5: of Pakistani people to be intimidated by this, the intense

1611
01:22:29,520 --> 01:22:33,240
Speaker 5: amount of violence and suppression dealt out by the US

1612
01:22:33,280 --> 01:22:34,000
Speaker 5: backed military.

1613
01:22:34,040 --> 01:22:36,640
Speaker 6: There just a hell of a week in Pakistan. Your

1614
01:22:36,640 --> 01:22:38,679
Speaker 6: coverage of it has been fascinating to watch.

1615
01:22:38,800 --> 01:22:42,240
Speaker 4: And we'll get we'll get Shabaz on some other time.

1616
01:22:42,400 --> 01:22:44,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, we forgive him, and it's calmer for all of

1617
01:22:44,920 --> 01:22:47,160
Speaker 5: the interviews that I have missed over the years.

1618
01:22:47,760 --> 01:22:49,960
Speaker 4: Like you people being like, hey you doing this, I'm like,

1619
01:22:50,160 --> 01:22:54,000
Speaker 4: did I agree to that? Sorry?

1620
01:22:54,080 --> 01:22:54,559
Speaker 7: Amazing?

1621
01:22:54,800 --> 01:22:56,920
Speaker 6: Well, we'll be back with more kind of points next week.

1622
01:22:56,920 --> 01:22:58,719
Speaker 6: And once again, remember if you go to Breaking points

1623
01:22:58,760 --> 01:23:00,840
Speaker 6: dot com right now, there's a special twenty five percent

1624
01:23:00,840 --> 01:23:03,800
Speaker 6: off you get to see those RFK Junior focus group

1625
01:23:03,840 --> 01:23:08,080
Speaker 6: interviews early, amazing interviews. I'm so glad that Crystal and

1626
01:23:08,120 --> 01:23:10,200
Speaker 6: Sagar and Maca Griffin have set those up. They're very,

1627
01:23:10,280 --> 01:23:12,400
Speaker 6: very helpful, so you get them early and you get

1628
01:23:12,400 --> 01:23:14,960
Speaker 6: the full counterpoint showed. You're inbox if you subscribe to premium,

1629
01:23:14,960 --> 01:23:17,799
Speaker 6: which is now twenty five percent off at Breakingpoints dot com.

1630
01:23:17,880 --> 01:23:19,479
Speaker 6: We'll be back next Monday, Wednesday.

1631
01:23:19,520 --> 01:23:20,320
Speaker 4: That's also a lie.

1632
01:23:20,360 --> 01:23:22,720
Speaker 5: I'll be back on Monday, that's right with Sager, and

1633
01:23:22,760 --> 01:23:25,519
Speaker 5: then I'm going to Mexico. Don't worry about it, Cristal

1634
01:23:25,560 --> 01:23:28,000
Speaker 5: will be here. Be a ladies show on Wednesday.

1635
01:23:28,120 --> 01:23:28,320
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1636
01:23:28,360 --> 01:23:29,639
Speaker 6: It will be a lot of fun. Not as fun

1637
01:23:29,680 --> 01:23:32,719
Speaker 6: as you'll be having in Mexico at your fish concert,

1638
01:23:32,720 --> 01:23:34,080
Speaker 6: but fun. Nonetheless, it'll be.

1639
01:23:34,040 --> 01:23:36,280
Speaker 4: A good time down there. I'll be thinking of you.

1640
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:36,920
Speaker 4: See you later.