WEBVTT - Consumer Sentiment Data, Trump Tariffs

0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.560
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.479
<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.840
<v Speaker 1>Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:23.040
<v Speaker 1>us live on YouTube.

0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:26.440
<v Speaker 2>The University of Michigan sentiment data came out today weaker

0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.280
<v Speaker 2>than expected. Sixty four point seven was a headline number.

0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.200
<v Speaker 2>The consensus was sixty seven point eight last month sixty

0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:34.000
<v Speaker 2>seven point It's a little bit weaker there. Let's break

0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:38.200
<v Speaker 2>it down. Johanne Schue joins US Surveys of Consumers Director

0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:41.600
<v Speaker 2>at the University of Michigan. Joanne, what did the number

0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:42.880
<v Speaker 2>numbers tell you today?

0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:49.200
<v Speaker 3>Essentially, consumers are feeling less optimistic about the future inflation. Sorry,

0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:52.800
<v Speaker 3>consumer sentiment declined over the course of the month of February,

0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:56.760
<v Speaker 3>and consumers do see that things the outlook is looking

0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.000
<v Speaker 3>a bit weaker than it was about a month ago.

0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.320
<v Speaker 3>The main reason for this is that they're becoming much

0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.920
<v Speaker 3>more concerned that inflation is going to come surging back

0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:09.199
<v Speaker 3>in the future. Inflation expectations really got quite a bit worse,

0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:10.720
<v Speaker 3>both in the short term as long as the long

0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:11.919
<v Speaker 3>as well as the long term.

0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:16.200
<v Speaker 4>So all five components of the index deteriorated, including a

0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:20.120
<v Speaker 4>decline in buying conditions for big ticket items. How do

0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.280
<v Speaker 4>you interpret, You know, what kind of macro signal you

0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:24.640
<v Speaker 4>get out of something like that.

0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:29.840
<v Speaker 3>Consumers are seeing signs of weakening throughout the economy. We

0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:33.000
<v Speaker 3>see it again in terms of buying conditions for durables.

0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.520
<v Speaker 3>So that's mainly because people are really worried that it

0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:38.720
<v Speaker 3>might be too late to avoid tariff related price hikes

0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:41.800
<v Speaker 3>in the very near future. But consumers are also expecting

0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.920
<v Speaker 3>unemployment rates to get worse over the next year, so

0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:48.960
<v Speaker 3>they're seeing weaknesses, potential weaknesses and business conditions in their

0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:54.680
<v Speaker 3>personal finances as well as in inflation and big buying

0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:56.080
<v Speaker 3>conditions for big ticket items.

0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.960
<v Speaker 2>Our moves of this magnitude again sixty four point seven

0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.040
<v Speaker 2>and was the actual sixty seven point eight was kind

0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.280
<v Speaker 2>of last month. It was also the consensus for this month.

0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:07.760
<v Speaker 2>Our misses of this magnitude are they common in your

0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:08.519
<v Speaker 2>survey work.

0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:12.160
<v Speaker 3>What's a little bit unusual is that we're seeing declines

0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:15.639
<v Speaker 3>across the board usually the five index components. Some are

0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:19.079
<v Speaker 3>moving up, some might go sideways, and some might move down,

0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.880
<v Speaker 3>but this time we're seeing all five index components all

0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.480
<v Speaker 3>moving down at the same time, both inflation expectations figures

0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:29.920
<v Speaker 3>moving getting worse at the same time, as well as

0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:34.840
<v Speaker 3>unemployment expectations. This not necessarily saying people think things are

0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.080
<v Speaker 3>getting a lot worse, but they're seeing concerning signs across

0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:38.679
<v Speaker 3>the economy.

0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.320
<v Speaker 2>Interesting and again, the Universe emission five to ten year

0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.840
<v Speaker 2>inflation a look. The consensus was three point three percent

0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:47.600
<v Speaker 2>was the outlook. It came into three point five percent,

0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:49.600
<v Speaker 2>So Joan was mentioning a little bit higher there.

0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:50.120
<v Speaker 5>A little bit.

0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:53.520
<v Speaker 2>Concerning joeyan Shoe Surveys of Consumers, Director at the University

0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:55.440
<v Speaker 2>of Michigan. They don't just make good football players and

0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.840
<v Speaker 2>make some pretty good economists out there in Michigan.

0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.280
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:07.480
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Colarcklay and Android

0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.800
<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.960
<v Speaker 1>you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:17.120
<v Speaker 2>Looking for some trends in the marketplace today, you know,

0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.480
<v Speaker 2>just kind of a risk off kind of day. The

0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:22.720
<v Speaker 2>United Healthcare News weighing on the DAL certainly, but people

0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.520
<v Speaker 2>trying to get a sense of economic data and earnings

0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:27.440
<v Speaker 2>growth and all that good stuff. Looks like the Fed's

0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.360
<v Speaker 2>going to be more less on the sidelines for most

0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.800
<v Speaker 2>of this year. Katiekiminski joins us. She's a chief research

0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:37.880
<v Speaker 2>strategist Alpha Simplex Group up there in Boston, Mass Area.

0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.600
<v Speaker 2>Lots of MIT stuff going on in her resume. I

0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:42.120
<v Speaker 2>don't know what's going on there. It's a lot of math,

0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.560
<v Speaker 2>I think, Katie, thanks so much for joining us here.

0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:48.880
<v Speaker 2>How are you guys thinking about these markets today? Where

0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.920
<v Speaker 2>are you guys seeing interest, opportunity value?

0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:55.520
<v Speaker 6>Well, to be honest, it's been a little bit of

0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:59.560
<v Speaker 6>a reversal the last two days. We've generally been following

0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:04.640
<v Speaker 6>that US exceptionalism theme across multiple asset classes, and you know,

0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.760
<v Speaker 6>it seems to be stumbling a little bit, and you know,

0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:09.800
<v Speaker 6>the market is definitely a little concerned.

0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:12.960
<v Speaker 7>Today really doesn't seem to be any different from that.

0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.560
<v Speaker 6>So we'll have to see what that means, I guess

0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:17.080
<v Speaker 6>in the next few weeks.

0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:21.240
<v Speaker 4>How are you thinking about correlations between stocks and bonds

0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:22.880
<v Speaker 4>right now? I know we said it was a risk

0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:26.160
<v Speaker 4>off day, but I mean today we're seeing I guess

0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:30.120
<v Speaker 4>people piling into treasuries exiting stocks. I guess that could

0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.839
<v Speaker 4>make sense with the risk theme, but we haven't seen

0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.960
<v Speaker 4>that correlation kind of play out every single day over

0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:36.680
<v Speaker 4>the last few months.

0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.640
<v Speaker 6>That's that's a really good point because we actually have

0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:45.520
<v Speaker 6>seen on aggregate positive stock bond correlation often more recently.

0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.080
<v Speaker 6>And what that means is that the market is trying

0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:52.280
<v Speaker 6>to figure out how much is inflation important, because that's

0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:56.800
<v Speaker 6>what we've anytime the market's concerned about inflation, the correlation

0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:59.680
<v Speaker 6>being stocks and bonds changes quite a bit. But today

0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:02.560
<v Speaker 6>just seems to be a classic risk off type of

0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:07.080
<v Speaker 6>day where you know, people are nervous, consumer confidences down,

0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:10.760
<v Speaker 6>long term inflation expectations are up.

0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:12.760
<v Speaker 7>So I think people are just a little nervous about

0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:13.240
<v Speaker 7>what all this.

0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:15.080
<v Speaker 5>Means, Katie.

0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:17.280
<v Speaker 2>One of the trades that's been pretty solid for a

0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:19.600
<v Speaker 2>lot of people for a long time has been just

0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:22.080
<v Speaker 2>buy the dollar. It was certainly part of, you know,

0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.640
<v Speaker 2>quote unquote the Trump trade. We've had a little bit

0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.839
<v Speaker 2>of a pullback in the dollar here. How do you

0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:30.360
<v Speaker 2>think about that long dollar trade here?

0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.719
<v Speaker 6>Well, the long dollar trade, you know, just had everything

0:05:34.800 --> 0:05:37.040
<v Speaker 6>going for it earlier this year, you know, you really

0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:40.480
<v Speaker 6>saw given the FED being on the sidelines, that means

0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.320
<v Speaker 6>that there's less pressure on the dollar. Uh, the idea

0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:46.000
<v Speaker 6>that the US was looking strong and that was making

0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:48.960
<v Speaker 6>the dollars strong as well. But as some of those

0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.280
<v Speaker 6>narratives have petered out a little bit or perhaps extended

0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:53.080
<v Speaker 6>quite a bit.

0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:56.280
<v Speaker 7>We've started to see some reversion in that theme.

0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.240
<v Speaker 6>This month, and so I think a lot of people

0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:01.760
<v Speaker 6>are starting to wonder, you know, could this theme come

0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.320
<v Speaker 6>back or is there just a lot of noise around

0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:07.240
<v Speaker 6>a lot of the geopolitical and also the changes in

0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:11.120
<v Speaker 6>the US administration that could sort of shift dynamics.

0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:15.640
<v Speaker 4>Actually have a colleague on the FX team you asked

0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:20.000
<v Speaker 4>me today, have you seen anyone turning bearish on the dollar?

0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:23.040
<v Speaker 4>So maybe I'll throw the question to Katie. Is it

0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.960
<v Speaker 4>time to turn bearish on the US dollar?

0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:28.599
<v Speaker 7>That is actually a good question.

0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.599
<v Speaker 6>I think people are asking that question, especially versus things

0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:36.400
<v Speaker 6>like the yen where there's a more clear narrative, you know,

0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.640
<v Speaker 6>where you know boj is doing something different. But I

0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.640
<v Speaker 6>think the question is just is this just a reversion

0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:47.920
<v Speaker 6>from the consistent theme or you know, have we kind

0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:49.200
<v Speaker 6>of shifted course?

0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:52.040
<v Speaker 7>And so far it doesn't look like it yet, but there.

0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:54.480
<v Speaker 6>Has been some indication that the dollar is backed up,

0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:55.799
<v Speaker 6>particularly this month.

0:06:56.520 --> 0:07:00.960
<v Speaker 2>Another trend that's been pretty pervasive has been gold here

0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:04.679
<v Speaker 2>and I you know, the Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Michael

0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:06.839
<v Speaker 2>mcglohan is said, for years and years and years in

0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.720
<v Speaker 2>terms of commodities by gold and short everything else.

0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:10.360
<v Speaker 5>What's that.

0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.720
<v Speaker 2>I guess the fundamentals for gold look really solid.

0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.400
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean, gold has been one of the tried

0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:21.840
<v Speaker 6>and true trades for trend in the last few months.

0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.280
<v Speaker 6>I mean, of course it reverted a little bit this week,

0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:27.560
<v Speaker 6>but there just seems to be a lot of structural

0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:31.000
<v Speaker 6>reasons why people want to hold gold. There's a lack

0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:33.840
<v Speaker 6>of supply of gold, people don't want to loan out gold,

0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:36.400
<v Speaker 6>so it just seems to be sort of that safe

0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:38.360
<v Speaker 6>haven that it, you know, especially in.

0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:41.240
<v Speaker 7>A world where there's you know, more of supply chain

0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:42.800
<v Speaker 7>and other you.

0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:46.560
<v Speaker 6>Know it issues globally across central banks. So I think,

0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:48.920
<v Speaker 6>you know, gold seems to be your sort of safe

0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:52.920
<v Speaker 6>haven asset and that doesn't seem to be stopping yet.

0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:58.680
<v Speaker 4>I have to ask a question about managed futures because

0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:03.680
<v Speaker 4>Katie wrote a book about managed futures And without getting

0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:06.680
<v Speaker 4>too technical here, I do write about ETFs and we

0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:11.600
<v Speaker 4>have seen this year Blackrock Invesco, and I also believe

0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:16.040
<v Speaker 4>Fidelity file for Managed Futures ETF.

0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:17.680
<v Speaker 7>What do you make of this?

0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:22.200
<v Speaker 4>Is this like a really a vehicle that should be

0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:26.000
<v Speaker 4>in the ETF wrapper and you know, something that retail

0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:27.560
<v Speaker 4>should be looking into.

0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:32.720
<v Speaker 6>I would say absolutely yes, it's a very exciting and

0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:36.200
<v Speaker 6>you know, we wrote this really exciting paper recently about

0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:40.360
<v Speaker 6>this new fields or the managed futures ETF, the rise

0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.920
<v Speaker 6>of it. And what's exciting is since there were changes

0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:49.320
<v Speaker 6>in US transparency in the regulations for active ETFs, now

0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:53.559
<v Speaker 6>there's a lot more uh, you know, ability to incorporate

0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.720
<v Speaker 6>dynamic and active strategies in an ETF rapper, which allows

0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:02.079
<v Speaker 6>people to you know, invest in such strategies on an

0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:04.880
<v Speaker 6>inter day basis as opposed to sort of a typical

0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.920
<v Speaker 6>mutual fund structure. So I think you're going to see

0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:13.120
<v Speaker 6>a lot of opportunities for beta like products that give

0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:18.480
<v Speaker 6>investors access to a dynamic range of asset classes over time.

0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:22.040
<v Speaker 6>So it's an exciting field and something I'm super excited about.

0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:23.760
<v Speaker 7>So thanks for asking.

0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.960
<v Speaker 2>That's awesome. Who needs I mean ETFs for everything. Katie

0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:30.120
<v Speaker 2>Comminski ch you Research Strategists, Alpha Simplex group up there

0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:30.720
<v Speaker 2>in Cambridge.

0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Mess You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us

0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.080
<v Speaker 1>live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple clock Play

0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:42.040
<v Speaker 1>and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:45.360
<v Speaker 1>demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:46.240
<v Speaker 1>on YouTube.

0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:50.440
<v Speaker 2>Stock story of today, United Healthcare off about nine percent.

0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:50.640
<v Speaker 8>Here.

0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:54.720
<v Speaker 2>We've got some oversight potentially some people probing, some regulators

0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:57.080
<v Speaker 2>probing United Health. We want to get some of the

0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.760
<v Speaker 2>details there. We go to Glen Mooseef, Bloomberg Intelligence senior

0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:04.440
<v Speaker 2>Ecroyannel's covering some of these healthcare names here. Uh, Glenn

0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:06.880
<v Speaker 2>talks about you and h What's what is the news today?

0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:07.680
<v Speaker 2>Moving the stock?

0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.160
<v Speaker 5>So the news good morning. First of all, good afternoon.

0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.400
<v Speaker 5>The news basically that the Wolsetet Journal broke the story

0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:19.839
<v Speaker 5>that there is a Department of Justice investigation into Medicare

0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:26.880
<v Speaker 5>advantage up quoting from United Health group. Upcoting means that

0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:33.160
<v Speaker 5>doctors usually upcode the diagnosis, make diagnosis more acute, so

0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:36.920
<v Speaker 5>companies likedic like United for example, or any other Medicare

0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:41.520
<v Speaker 5>advantage plan get much higher payments from the government, and

0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:42.680
<v Speaker 5>that's the issue.

0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:46.440
<v Speaker 4>How do you anticipate United is going to respond to this?

0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:52.120
<v Speaker 5>So United issued a very short statement saying that Wolf

0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:59.720
<v Speaker 5>Street Journal has been sort of pursuing, you know, putting

0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:03.880
<v Speaker 5>in that gative spin on what United Health Group is

0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:09.240
<v Speaker 5>doing and completely unite the accusations. That being said, Department

0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:15.760
<v Speaker 5>of Justice is investigating and you'll see what common is

0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:16.240
<v Speaker 5>it for?

0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:19.679
<v Speaker 2>I mean, this goes to the heart of what an

0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:24.240
<v Speaker 2>insurance company does. Diagnosis, you know, submit, get payment. I

0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.920
<v Speaker 2>mean that's what they do. How common or uncommon is

0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:28.400
<v Speaker 2>it for the government to look into.

0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:33.080
<v Speaker 5>These type of investigations are very common? Common or relatively okay,

0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:38.840
<v Speaker 5>this is nothing new usually, so investigations key. The other

0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:42.000
<v Speaker 5>thing is investigations can take up to a few years.

0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:46.920
<v Speaker 5>Usually they have resolved in the settlement. Government is looking

0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:51.160
<v Speaker 5>to make some money and company just wants to put

0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:52.160
<v Speaker 5>it behind them.

0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.200
<v Speaker 2>And they said, what is the reputation of United Health

0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.720
<v Speaker 2>that they's such a monster company? What's the reputation industry

0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:00.559
<v Speaker 2>for this kind of stuff?

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:04.000
<v Speaker 5>Well, it's very difficult to say. Especially over the last

0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:08.480
<v Speaker 5>six plus month, you know, the company has been heavily

0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:14.320
<v Speaker 5>scrutinized after the murder of one of the executives. That

0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.280
<v Speaker 5>being said, you know, every company, as I always said,

0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.400
<v Speaker 5>is there to make Every business is there to make money.

0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:25.120
<v Speaker 5>So you know, unless they're doing something illegal, which I

0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.680
<v Speaker 5>you know, very difficult to prove. You know, I don't

0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:30.000
<v Speaker 5>think there is anything.

0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:32.800
<v Speaker 8>What do you make at the share price reaction?

0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 4>Is is it an overreaction to this news Because the

0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.880
<v Speaker 4>company's medicare advantage division it is kind of small compared

0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.199
<v Speaker 4>to the overall business, right.

0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:48.400
<v Speaker 5>Right, so, so relative to overall business, it's pretty small,

0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 5>but United is the largest Medicare advantage plan in the

0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:56.360
<v Speaker 5>United States. That's one thing. Another thing is a lot

0:12:56.400 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 5>of revenue comes from Medicare advantage for United It and

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:03.760
<v Speaker 5>the other thing that I think the reaction of the

0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 5>stock where it is, even though I do think that

0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:11.400
<v Speaker 5>it's probably an overreaction, which sort of you know, today's

0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.760
<v Speaker 5>use adds to what happened over the last six months

0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 5>with the company, you know, all the negative sentiment. But

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:23.199
<v Speaker 5>I also think that investors are thinking that today's announcement

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:30.240
<v Speaker 5>is sort of the Pambindi introducing herself and also partly

0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:36.760
<v Speaker 5>you know, the Trump administrations showing that federal agency are

0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 5>not the only target of you know, waste for the

0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 5>abuse those agenda.

0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 2>So you think there is a political aspect to this pot.

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 5>I mean, I can't say for sure, but you know,

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:50.319
<v Speaker 5>what's what's.

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.319
<v Speaker 2>The feeling about the managed care business in general? See

0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 2>the stocks haven't been great performers. Has the market feel

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:56.319
<v Speaker 2>about the managing care business?

0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 5>So, you know, first of all, United sets the tone

0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 5>for the whole industry, right, It's the biggest company and

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:06.560
<v Speaker 5>sort of manage care companies usually trade in tandem with

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 5>United sort of setting the tone and everyone else follows

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 5>as United sort of has these issues that they sort

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:20.480
<v Speaker 5>of try to navigate. You know, the whole industry is

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:25.360
<v Speaker 5>sort of under pressure right because of it. So I

0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 5>think over the last couple of years medical costs were

0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 5>going up. Everyone is expecting medical costs to continue to

0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 5>go up. My thesis that it's gonna they're gonna start

0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 5>to ease because three years after the post pandemic recovery began,

0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:45.680
<v Speaker 5>I think there are less people that will sort of

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.880
<v Speaker 5>seek here at the levels that they did after differing

0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:55.800
<v Speaker 5>seeing a doctor during the pandemic. So that could sort

0:14:55.840 --> 0:15:00.360
<v Speaker 5>of provide a tailviinon for United. Earnings from Hunt as

0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:02.280
<v Speaker 5>well as the only Indus ship. But we'll see how

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:03.600
<v Speaker 5>it plays out, all.

0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 2>Right, Glenn, thanks so much for journey. US really appreciate it.

0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:08.560
<v Speaker 2>Glenn Losev. He's a senior equianols Bloomberg Intelligence, following US

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:12.680
<v Speaker 2>managed care companies, United Healthcare the big mover in the market.

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US live

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.240
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto

0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 1>get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube.

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.840
<v Speaker 2>Speaking of tariffs, let's get the latest here, because it

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.400
<v Speaker 2>is a fluid situation. We know that tariffs are an

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 2>economic policy that President Trump likes to employ in various ways.

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 2>And the current joins us Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter and

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:45.000
<v Speaker 2>to kind of where are we here on the tariffs?

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:46.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think people are trying to get a

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:51.880
<v Speaker 2>sense of what tariff discussion is real, what tariff discussion

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 2>is maybe just a negotiating point with other countries. How's

0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.720
<v Speaker 2>the thinking around tariff's.

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:02.800
<v Speaker 8>Evolving well and moving fast. If you consider the action

0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.040
<v Speaker 8>so far, there has been a ten percent tariff put

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:08.280
<v Speaker 8>on all goods from China. That's actually happening. It's real,

0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 8>and it's it's new because it's covering all of the

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 8>goods from China, not just targeted. Then, of course, we

0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 8>have various executive orders that have been signed asking the

0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:20.760
<v Speaker 8>Trade Represents, the Office and Cumberence Apartment, excuse me to

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 8>go out and analyze how the US to doing business

0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.240
<v Speaker 8>with the rest of the world. They're going to come

0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:28.440
<v Speaker 8>back with a lot of reports by April one, and

0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 8>this in the meantime, we will see new tariffs going

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 8>steel around the middle of March. I think it is so. Yes,

0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.320
<v Speaker 8>there is obviously some rehetoric and a lot of headlines,

0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 8>but at the same time, there is also concrete action

0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 8>that's happening, and we're seeing companies respond, we're seeing consumers respond.

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.600
<v Speaker 8>You just had joined talking there about the impact and

0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.400
<v Speaker 8>consumer sentiment, and we're speaking to companies who make similar

0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 8>points as well, and.

0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 4>That you have a wonderful piece of reporting out on

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:58.520
<v Speaker 4>the terminal today all about small businesses and how they're

0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:02.080
<v Speaker 4>reacting to the prospect of tariffs and the tariffs that

0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:03.040
<v Speaker 4>are already in place.

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 7>Tell us about what you're reporting.

0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.960
<v Speaker 8>Showed, sure, well, So the thinking when it comes to

0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.879
<v Speaker 8>tariff is that big multinational companies are better resourced, they

0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:15.200
<v Speaker 8>can shift supply chains, they can adapt, they can maybe

0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:19.160
<v Speaker 8>absorb somebody hit into their margins. But the real pain

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:23.000
<v Speaker 8>comes to those small business operators, those small manufacturing in

0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:26.240
<v Speaker 8>US who rely on saying import the components from China

0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:28.160
<v Speaker 8>and the rest of the world. And we found out

0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:29.680
<v Speaker 8>we spoke to a lot of these people. They make

0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:33.840
<v Speaker 8>all kinds of products, whether from lighting to fasteners, two

0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:37.560
<v Speaker 8>tonke toys, and all of them made the same point

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.840
<v Speaker 8>that if tariffs on the goods they're bringing in at

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:44.520
<v Speaker 8>port go up, then their margins are at a point

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.080
<v Speaker 8>or squeeze, the point where they can't absorb that and

0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.920
<v Speaker 8>they're going to have to pass those costs on their consumers.

0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:51.959
<v Speaker 8>So it's a small business people warning about the hit

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:54.840
<v Speaker 8>to their companies, hit their investment plans, and the fact

0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:56.240
<v Speaker 8>that they have the pac these costs along.

0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:00.439
<v Speaker 2>What's the feeling and about reciprocal tariffs if if in

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:04.560
<v Speaker 2>fact the US does move forward on tariffs against certain countries,

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:08.120
<v Speaker 2>is he just the expectation that almost a knee jerk

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 2>reaction to those countries will react and put tariffs on

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:12.520
<v Speaker 2>our goods as well.

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:15.440
<v Speaker 8>I think that's the reaction function for training partners. We've

0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:19.399
<v Speaker 8>already had China respond. China's put tariffs on US agricultural

0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 8>equipment going to China, for example, and have put some

0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:27.080
<v Speaker 8>many trust investigations on US companies. The EU Trade Commissioner

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:28.680
<v Speaker 8>was in DC this week and I went along to

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:30.600
<v Speaker 8>his events, and he was making the point that he

0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 8>came here to talk deals. They're happy to buy alng

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 8>buyside beans, ready to bring down tariffs on US cars.

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.359
<v Speaker 8>But he also made it clear of that isn't enough,

0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:43.640
<v Speaker 8>and tariffs go ahead on European goods, well, you're will

0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 8>respond to. They have their list, he said, and their

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.280
<v Speaker 8>lists agrievances, and they're ready to go. So this is

0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 8>a big danger that people make the point about. Yes,

0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.959
<v Speaker 8>headlines are on tariffs. Maybe its leverage, maybe reaches some

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 8>kind of a deal, but if tariff's go in and

0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.080
<v Speaker 8>you get this tit for that spiral of a trade war,

0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 8>then ultimately it will weigh on business confidence and sentiment.

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.359
<v Speaker 4>What are you seeing so far about just the extent

0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:10.840
<v Speaker 4>of all of the talk of tariffs actually affecting inflation

0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:14.080
<v Speaker 4>Because you see headlines every day that you know, analysts

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.240
<v Speaker 4>are saying that the tariffs are going to increase inflation,

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.360
<v Speaker 4>And what is your reporting showing about just how business

0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 4>is preparing for the prospect of tariffs. How does that

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:25.760
<v Speaker 4>actually affect inflation.

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.160
<v Speaker 8>Well, we're still early, right, the inflation story is still

0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 8>very much kind of about stubborn services inflation, I think,

0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:34.360
<v Speaker 8>more so than goods prices. But we're rather delicate point

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:36.680
<v Speaker 8>in the inflation story when hang on a second, wasn't

0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:38.040
<v Speaker 8>it meant to be all about this inflation and it

0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:39.880
<v Speaker 8>looks like that might be a little bit rocky. Now

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:41.879
<v Speaker 8>throw on top of that the point that maybe there

0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:45.200
<v Speaker 8>will be these tariffs going on, typical consumer goods coming

0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.840
<v Speaker 8>to the country. Well, then the thinking among economists and businesses.

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:51.000
<v Speaker 8>As I saying, business are warning you'll have to pass on.

0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 8>Economists say price.

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 2>So we'll go up.

0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:55.200
<v Speaker 8>We'll have to go up near term. That's where it

0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:58.400
<v Speaker 8>becomes more pointy. I mean, okay, near term prices go up.

0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:00.600
<v Speaker 8>But what's the second round effect. Is is it one

0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:03.920
<v Speaker 8>off inflation impact that kind of policemakers owners look through,

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:08.120
<v Speaker 8>or does it set and chain longer term higher inflation expectations?

0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 8>Maybe that's the hint coming out of the Michigan survey today,

0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.760
<v Speaker 8>for example, that's where the big economic crunch does come.

0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.560
<v Speaker 8>But right here, right now, of course, companies and consumers warning.

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:19.439
<v Speaker 8>What it means for prices, what it means for inflation

0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:21.840
<v Speaker 8>a longer term, what it means for confidence.

0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Very good, Endercurrent, Thank you so much for joining us

0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:28.120
<v Speaker 2>at an acurrent global economy reporter Bloomberg News. Joining us

0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:30.440
<v Speaker 2>from Washington, DC via.

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:36.199
<v Speaker 1>Zoom This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:40.360
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:43.840
<v Speaker 1>ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:47.800
<v Speaker 1>iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:51.119
<v Speaker 1>can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:53.280
<v Speaker 1>always on the Bloomberg terminal