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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as block book college football world standard.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he stumble the football, the lateral turn,

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Speaker 1: the counter on the inside. Don't you believe I'm not

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Speaker 1: tap them up the.

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Speaker 3: Field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the side of the dog any fun. It's

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Speaker 1: the side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 3: Week eleven college football betting preview. I'm stuck in with me,

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Speaker 3: as always is Colin Wilson. It's done with maction and

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Speaker 3: we're on to the weekend. What's going on?

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Speaker 1: Oh? Albert Emmanuel Junior? How is this guy not? This

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Speaker 1: first string quarterback? Over?

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Speaker 2: Daniel Richardson for Central Michigan absolutely owned maction last night

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Speaker 2: was the highlight that second half from Central Michigan. I

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Speaker 2: hope at four and six they make it to a bull.

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Speaker 2: That kid is electric. I can't figure out how he

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Speaker 2: wasn't first string quarterback?

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Speaker 1: Stuff? You go be kidding me?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: This is peak maction it is peak faction.

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Speaker 3: True freshman ran for two ninety three.

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Speaker 1: They did.

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Speaker 3: They just wanted to save him, didn't want to burn

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Speaker 3: his red shirt. So yeah, they wanted to keep him

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Speaker 3: with five or fewer games. He's kid out of Texas.

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Speaker 3: He was electric. Yeah, just came up shy of the

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Speaker 3: record which was set the quarterback rushing recorhich set by

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Speaker 3: Jordan Lynch about ten years ago for Niu who ran

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Speaker 3: for three twelve and then a couple of weeks later

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Speaker 3: three sixteen against Western Michigan. And by the way, his

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Speaker 3: little brother ran in the way touchdown against Western Michigan

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Speaker 3: four Northern Illinois. So everything comes full circle in maction.

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Speaker 1: MAT's max for sionify right.

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Speaker 3: But we're on the weekend. We got a hell of

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Speaker 3: a slate. We're getting down the crunch time. Let's get

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Speaker 3: right into it. We're gonna go Friday night lights. We

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Speaker 3: will get into four Marquee games. We'll do a rundown.

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Speaker 3: I have plenty of trash. Con will do a quick

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Speaker 3: rapid fire for a couple of games he likes. Then,

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Speaker 3: of course we will go three and out off of

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Speaker 3: our favorite bets, favorite underdog's favorite favorites. So let's get

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Speaker 3: right into it. Friday night lights.

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Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

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Speaker 3: Hey, let's go play some football. ECU, who's on a roll,

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Speaker 3: trying to just dispatch all of the future Big twelve members.

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Speaker 3: They did it, They're gonna try to do it again

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Speaker 3: in the Queen City against Cincinnati. They're five five and

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Speaker 3: a half one underdogs. You also have USC laying thirty

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Speaker 3: four against Colorado and then Fresno State UNLV both quarterbacks back.

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Speaker 3: You have Jay canderback for Fresno State, Doug brumfield back

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Speaker 3: for UNLV. Fresno's laying nine and a half. There see

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Speaker 3: anything here? Which game do you want to attack? Fort or?

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Speaker 1: It was the game I'm a little bit in, you know,

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Speaker 1: a little bit I hesitant to lay a bet? Is

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Speaker 1: the USC game?

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Speaker 2: I mean Colorado has given up at least forty two

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Speaker 2: points in four of the last five games, and USC

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Speaker 2: has scored forty and four of their last five games.

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Speaker 2: So you would think that fifty birder that's USC's team

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Speaker 2: total would be good.

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Speaker 1: Here because Colorado has after that.

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Speaker 2: Little Mike Sandford boom that they got after he took

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Speaker 2: over his interim it's been back to trash. So USC

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Speaker 2: should be the side, but it's overlooked a UCLA. So

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Speaker 2: that one's got me off. The Fresno State UNLV under

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Speaker 2: is very that. You know, that's something I'm going to play.

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Speaker 2: Doug Brumfield returned. He was horrible fumble two I n

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Speaker 2: t s UNLV's outside the top one hundred and havoc

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Speaker 2: a lot and that's just the big deal with the

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Speaker 2: running rebels, like they can't sustain drives because they're always

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Speaker 2: turning the ball over. And Fresno's a top twenty five

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Speaker 2: team in defensive Havoc. Jay Hayner's full speed again seven

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Speaker 2: tds two I in t's So I think Fresno is

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Speaker 2: going to do all the scoring U and LV just

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Speaker 2: has no route to get points on the board. But

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Speaker 2: is this a good time to buy Sincy? I mean,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of ECU love out there. They've won

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Speaker 2: five straight. You know, since he's going home, they haven't

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Speaker 2: covered I don't think since he hasn't covered a game

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Speaker 2: since September, it's been a long time. They had a

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Speaker 2: push in there in October, but they haven't really covered anything.

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Speaker 2: But they're really good at Nippert they've won thirty one

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Speaker 2: straight and there's some big advantages here. ECU has no

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Speaker 2: pass rush. Their coverage rank is ninety fifth. Ben Bryan

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Speaker 2: hasn't thrown an interception since Week six against South Florida.

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Speaker 2: And I know what Holt Naylor's is doing, and we

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Speaker 2: don't like to fade Holton Naylor's. But this number, to

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Speaker 2: me is depressed because on a neutral field, what should

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Speaker 2: this be two and a half.

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Speaker 1: I don't think these teams are that close.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not a fan of the Sincy team. But

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Speaker 3: from a market perspective, if you're buying ECU now, you're

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Speaker 3: buying them at the top of their market value, and

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Speaker 3: there's probab the value on Sinci here. Similarly, it's like

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Speaker 3: this is a classic Bi loo cell Hi. I mean,

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Speaker 3: since he hasn't covered in forever, they've looked bad ECUs

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Speaker 3: on a roll, they did get a much need to buy.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I do think that there's a bit of

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Speaker 3: value in Cincinnati. Not a team I'm rushing the bet

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Speaker 3: as a favor, but I do think that they're the

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Speaker 3: side I want to back. USC. I'm but I'm just

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Speaker 3: I'm fearful of well can Colorado like run it a

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Speaker 3: little bit, and is that they're gonna be their game

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Speaker 3: plan because they're okay at running it every once in

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Speaker 3: a while. Anyone could run it on USC. So does

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Speaker 3: Colorado just try to run it and make this as

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Speaker 3: a respectful possible or are they gonna try to win?

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Speaker 3: So like, if they're down twenty one, are they gonna

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Speaker 3: try to throw? If they do, they're done, They're done.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna get bown out. And then what I can't

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Speaker 3: figure out is I'm gonna go back and actually look

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Speaker 3: at this. I'll talk about it on Green Dot Daily

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Speaker 3: tomorrow morning, our daily live show at newon Eastern. I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna look to see what Lincoln Riley is historically done

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Speaker 3: in this spot because the USC does have an outside

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Speaker 3: shot at the College Wall playoff. Does number one? Does

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Speaker 3: this even matter this game? But does style points do matter?

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Speaker 3: We've talked with this with Brevic Gurfy. This game no one.

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Speaker 3: No one watches USC when they play these bad games.

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Speaker 3: But this is on Friday night at nine thirty on

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Speaker 3: FS one, So does USC want to come out and

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Speaker 3: make a statement? And then just because if you win

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Speaker 3: a game like this like sixty eight nothing, then you

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Speaker 3: know people in the committee go, WHOA right? Or does

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Speaker 3: USC say let's stay healthy, let's not show as much

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Speaker 3: and let's get ready for UCLA. I don't know the answer,

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna work.

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Speaker 2: A yeah, because Jordan Datis and Mario Williams are still

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Speaker 2: like game time decisions.

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Speaker 1: They're still working. They're close to returning was the term

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Speaker 1: that was used.

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Speaker 2: So you're right, do you save the health or do

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Speaker 2: you go for the primetime spotlight out there against a

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Speaker 2: team that is dead last and offensive finishing drives in Colorado,

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Speaker 2: they might not get a point of them.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting. I mean, USC's defense is so bad that

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Speaker 3: it's hard to lay a big number like this. They

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Speaker 3: haven't covered any of these big numbers all year because

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Speaker 3: they just can't get enough stops. What Colorado's offense is

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Speaker 3: bottom of the barrel. Fresno UNLV, I actually might disagree

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Speaker 3: with you, but I have to just because my thinking

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Speaker 3: on the surfaces. Fresno's defense hasn't been great this year.

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Speaker 3: UNLV's defense is really really bad. And are both offenses

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Speaker 3: underrated because they now got their quarterback back. We saw Hayner,

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Speaker 3: you know, that crazy comeback against San Diego State. He

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Speaker 3: looks like he's back to full strike. I think it

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Speaker 3: does come down. The bronkit was that, like Russ last game,

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Speaker 3: will he be better this game?

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: That was my initial thinking on the surface, but not

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Speaker 3: the sexiest Friday Night slate.

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Speaker 2: Here coms the Rebel Roller, a giant slot machine used

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Speaker 2: in the wake of any UNLV score or turnover forced.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to Saturday, where we do have plenty

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Speaker 3: of marquee games. We're gonna go through four, so let's

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Speaker 3: get to the marquee games of the day.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 3: Let's check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up

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Speaker 3: betting for Week eleven. Yeah, let's kick things off with

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Speaker 3: a three thirty CBS game. Really an intriguing game. Alabama

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Speaker 3: at Ole miss Ole miss at eleven and a half

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Speaker 3: point home underdog coming off of a much needed buy.

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Speaker 3: We talked about their stretch of games and how they

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Speaker 3: needed some rest over under sixty five. This is a

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Speaker 3: three thirty CBS game. When I look into this game, look,

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Speaker 3: I mean Alabama. Yeah, A couple trends that are interesting there.

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Speaker 3: Down two and six against the spread over the past

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Speaker 3: two seasons and true road games, all is double digit favorites.

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Speaker 3: All six losses were decided by three points of fewer,

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Speaker 3: so either lost outright or barely won, and Saban I

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Speaker 3: went back and looked. After a straight up loss in

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Speaker 3: the regular season at Alabama, four and ten against the spread.

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Speaker 3: The next game, if you remove Mississippi State, who always

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Speaker 3: beats by fifty, he's zero to eight against the spread

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Speaker 3: after a straight up loss, which I did not expect.

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Speaker 3: I expected to see like twelve and two the three

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Speaker 3: previous meetings between Saban and Kiffin. Saban won last year

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Speaker 3: forty two to twenty one as a fifteen point favorite,

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Speaker 3: same exact scenarios. This year, Ole miss was coming off

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Speaker 3: of bye, Albama was not. Albama was up twenty eight

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Speaker 3: nothing at the half. In twenty twenty, Album won sixty

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Speaker 3: three to forty eight but didn't cover. And then back

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and nine, when Kiffin was head coach

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Speaker 3: at Tennessee at Battle won twelve to ten at home.

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Speaker 3: What an ugly game. Kiffin is also only six and

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Speaker 3: ten against the spread with nine or more days of preparation,

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Speaker 3: which surprised me. I thought he would be better in

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Speaker 3: that aspect, and it is worth noting that Kiffin is

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Speaker 3: the most profitable first half coach over the past twenty

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Speaker 3: five years and the least profitable second half coach. So

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Speaker 3: when I look at this game, Bama definitely has issues

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Speaker 3: at receiv corner. Their run defense hasn't been as great,

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Speaker 3: their offensive line has been a little eh. And I

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Speaker 3: don't know if Bryce Young is fully healthy. Right, he

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Speaker 3: hasn't been practicing he until recently, and he's been on

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Speaker 3: a pitch count, and last week his balls just didn't

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Speaker 3: look clean, like he wasn't throwing tight spirals. He threw

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Speaker 3: a couple of ducks. And you know, Saban is mentioned

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Speaker 3: and he never mentions injury. So I just don't know

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Speaker 3: if he's fully healthy. But I'm also just not sure

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Speaker 3: that Bama catches line up here and run it right

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Speaker 3: down ole missus throat. This seems like a Bama spot,

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Speaker 3: But I don't I just don't know if I can

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Speaker 3: trust them. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Well, now you're talking me into the under because I've got,

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Speaker 2: you know, problems on the other side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Because this number is outrageous. It should be seven, Like

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Speaker 2: I've checked all the other power ratings up against ours.

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Speaker 2: This number should not be the double digits. But are

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Speaker 2: we going to back Bama on the road again. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's just not been a good wager. I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's ever cashed. You think of Arkansas, you think of Tennessee,

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Speaker 2: you think of you think of Texas, right, and then

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Speaker 2: you go to Old Miss's strength of schedule and you

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Speaker 2: know they're they're outside the top forty.

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Speaker 1: It has not been tough for them at all. And

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Speaker 1: Old Miss is a and this is I said when

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Speaker 1: we started the season, I said, this is not the

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Speaker 1: team that.

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Speaker 2: Lane Kiffen wants. It's not the makeup of what he

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Speaker 2: wants to run. Old Miss is a run first team,

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Speaker 2: a run second team, a run third team. They have

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Speaker 2: a sixty four percent rushing rate and they're very successful

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Speaker 2: with it. But that makes them one dimensional, which means

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Speaker 2: Alabama can load the box and they shut down rushing attacks.

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Speaker 2: And when I say that, I mean true rushing attacks. Right,

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Speaker 2: You're going to turn around, hand the ball off. That's

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Speaker 2: what they shut down. Now, the teams that have torn

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Speaker 2: Alabama up on the ground had dual threat quarterbacks. That

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Speaker 2: was Jayden Daniels, Hendon Hooker, and kJ Jefferson. They all

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Speaker 2: made the BAMA defense pay on the ground. So you

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Speaker 2: have to ask yourself, is Jackson dargan to be able

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Speaker 2: to do the same thing he was shut down against LSU,

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Speaker 2: Vandy and Kentucky. Other games he had over one hundred

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Speaker 2: yards on scrambles and designed runs. So you know, the

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Speaker 2: question is I think the critical point is this is

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Speaker 2: Bama's defense going to be able to start Jackson stop

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Speaker 2: Jackson Dart and his inside zone read, outside zone read

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Speaker 2: whatever he decides to play keeper. You know, I mean

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Speaker 2: the Bama defensive line is stopping the rush at the

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Speaker 2: point of attack and behind the line of scrimmage. They

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Speaker 2: have a great stuff rate, So I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: with us having problems with the offenses, I'm now kind

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Speaker 2: of turned onto the under.

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Speaker 1: In this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually was looking at the under. Two sixty

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Speaker 3: five is kind of key. So if you can get

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Speaker 3: above that, I think under his potentially to look like

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Speaker 3: I don't want to lay eleven and a half of Alabama.

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Speaker 3: You know, it feels like an Alabama spot and I

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Speaker 3: don't think that Old miss is capable of Like they

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Speaker 3: don't have a great downfield vertical passing attack, they don't

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Speaker 3: have a great defense that's going to generate a lot

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Speaker 3: of pressure, like they just I don't see ole Miss

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Speaker 3: pose And I'm just not a buyer of ole Miss.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you've seen what they did this year,

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Speaker 3: they haven't had a great schedule. So but I'm so

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Speaker 3: I'm not rushing to bat back ole Miss here. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: maybe under is the look. It is a very odd

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Speaker 3: game because I just can't get a handle of on

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Speaker 3: this Alabama team. And I do think ole Miss is

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Speaker 3: kind of fraudulent. I think you're paying a premium here

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Speaker 3: for Alabama off the loss, and it looks like that's

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Speaker 3: always been the case, which is why they're four and

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Speaker 3: ten against the spread after a loss. All right, let's

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Speaker 3: move on to A. And by the way, Alabama can

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Speaker 3: still win the SEC West. LSU just needs to either

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Speaker 3: beat Arkansas or Texas A and M and have ole

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Speaker 3: Miss lose one game. Sof Alabama beats ole Miss and

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Speaker 3: LSU beats ARKTSA almost talk about coming up, LSU would

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Speaker 3: clinch the division. If ole Miss wins out and LSU

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Speaker 3: loses both, then ole Miss would win. If Alabama beats

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Speaker 3: all Miss and ls who loses to Arkansas Alabama would

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Speaker 3: win the division if LSU loses to Texas A and M.

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Speaker 3: So at the end of the season, Saban and Alabama

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Speaker 3: will be rooting for Jimbo in Texas A and M,

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Speaker 3: which is pretty funny. All right, let's let's move on

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Speaker 3: to a game with major college football playoff implications. Maybe

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Speaker 3: we'll battle in this game TCU at Texas Texas seven

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Speaker 3: point home favorite over under sixty five. This game's at

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Speaker 3: seven thirty pm on ABC TCU. As most of you,

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Speaker 3: I'm assuming no, it's number four in the latest college

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Speaker 3: Football Playoff ranking. I don't think that really matters. I

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Speaker 3: think if they were gonna win out, regardless if there

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Speaker 3: were four or five or six, they were going to

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Speaker 3: the College Football Playoff. But I think they go down

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Speaker 3: here we talk about injuries, fatigue. TCU has to fall

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Speaker 3: into that kind of This is the eighth straight game

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Speaker 3: they're playing. They played SMU, Oklahoma, Kansas, Oak State, Kansas State,

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Speaker 3: West Virginia, Texas Tech. And what are all those scenes

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Speaker 3: have in common? Number one? A lot of them have

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Speaker 3: horrific defenses. Number two, most of them had hurt quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: You had Gabriel get hurt for Oklahoma. Then you play

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Speaker 3: the backup most of the game. Daniels get hurt, Jason

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Speaker 3: Bean comes in, Spencer Sanders clearly hurt. In the second half,

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Speaker 3: two quarterbacks get hurt for Kansas State, and then Texas Tech.

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Speaker 3: My guy Barry Morton gets hurt, and Tyler Schuck, who's

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Speaker 3: still hurt and shaking off Frost and colle he's just

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Speaker 3: not right, comes in. He was horrendous. He also had

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Speaker 3: a horrific face mask call want Texas Tech in that

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Speaker 3: game that really swung a lot of the momentum. But

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Speaker 3: that's five quarterbacks that they face that have been hurt.

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Speaker 3: So and if you look at their defensive numbers, they're

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Speaker 3: not great. But I'm extrap lad lading out what their

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Speaker 3: defensive numbers would look like if they did face healthy

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks the entire season. And it's even worse, so were

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Speaker 3: you and I might disagrees. I have TCU down with

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Speaker 3: like USC and Ole Miss. They are like around the

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Speaker 3: you know, fourteen to sixteen range elite offenses, really good offenses,

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Speaker 3: bad bad defenses, so like below not right below national average,

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Speaker 3: but horrific power five wise national average when you adjust

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Speaker 3: for schedule, and like you're good this This game sets

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Speaker 3: up for just I don't I think Texas to go off.

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Speaker 3: I don't see how tc is gonna get many stops.

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Speaker 3: You could go bijon, you can go explosive passes, and

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Speaker 3: on the other side of the ball you have Texas's rundy,

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Speaker 3: which is elite, top five in the country. Now the

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Speaker 3: secondary as holes, but Clinton Johnston is banged up, maybe

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Speaker 3: the best receiver in college football. And Gary Patterson, assistant

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Speaker 3: on Texas, knows Max Duggan probably about as well as

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Speaker 3: anybody in the country. Texas. Actually, I think if you

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Speaker 3: play off this season one hundred times, I think Texas

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Speaker 3: comes into this game undefeated more times than TCU. I actually,

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Speaker 3: you know, and I'm extremely high on Texas, probably lower

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Speaker 3: than most on TCU. They beat me every week, but

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Speaker 3: I grated as a win, not that that means anything,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, I have Texas in this game as a

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Speaker 3: double digit favor hihlated, I think they roll. Are you

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Speaker 3: gonna disagree and tell me your tc boys are gonna

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Speaker 3: win again?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, I thought you and I were going

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Speaker 2: to battle on this one, but we're not. I make

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Speaker 2: the raw number Texas minus five. So I thought this

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Speaker 2: game is way too inflated. But when you look at

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Speaker 2: certain things that are in the stats and outside of

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Speaker 2: the stats, I can't make a case for TCU at all. Now,

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Speaker 2: first off, talking about the luck factor going into these

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Speaker 2: two teams, if you look at second order win total

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Speaker 2: right now, just on these two teams in their seasons,

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Speaker 2: TCU's win loss record should be a game and a

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Speaker 2: half less on the win side than it is now,

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Speaker 2: and Texas should be a game and a half higher

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Speaker 2: than what they are right now. So that shows you,

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Speaker 2: you know, exactly how the win loss column doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: anything in this and Texas absolutely should be favored in

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Speaker 2: this game.

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Speaker 3: And that doesn't even account for injuries to quarterbacks. I

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Speaker 3: mean Texas also like dead injuries against Alabama to both

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks and lost by one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean there's a reason TCU is in the top

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Speaker 2: four of the College Football Playoff and their futures numbers

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Speaker 2: like sixty.

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Speaker 1: To eighty to one.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's just like you know, we all know,

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Speaker 2: but the injuries dug In and Quentin Johnson, they just

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Speaker 2: take away the explosiveness and that's what TCU just really

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Speaker 2: runs on. I mean, they just have that for dinner

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Speaker 2: every Saturday. They're twenty six and expected points on the

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Speaker 2: ground fourth and through the air. And if you take

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Speaker 2: away these two explosive components from this TCU team, what

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Speaker 2: do they have left? Because it's not a sustained success

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Speaker 2: rate drive that gets them into scoring position. It's there's

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Speaker 2: never a thirteen play drive the TCU runs. It's always

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Speaker 2: explosive plays. And then if you go to the other

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, TCU does not produce pressure on quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: And where that's important is that Quinny were struggles with pressure.

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Speaker 2: He has a drop of twenty two percent and is

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Speaker 2: adjusted a completion rate, only had one big time throw

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Speaker 2: this season win. He has pressure on him, and only

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Speaker 2: one player on TCU's defense has produced double digits and

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Speaker 2: quarterback hurries. When you go to the Texas defense, they

378
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Speaker 2: have six players that have produced double digits and quarterback hurry.

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Speaker 2: So yours is not going to be pressure, which means

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Speaker 2: he's going to have a great day. And I think

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Speaker 2: something that you can't pull out of a stat sheet,

382
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Speaker 2: something you can't really quantify, is that Texas has been

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Speaker 2: more physical in the trench against every single team that

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Speaker 2: they've played, and that kind of shows up pass rush

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Speaker 2: of ninth.

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Speaker 1: That's not good for a limited Max Duggin, you know,

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Speaker 1: dealing with that half injury. You think about it.

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Speaker 2: Last week, the highest number of pressures Max Duggin has

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Speaker 2: seen all year was last week against Texas Tech. He

390
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: saw seventeen. Maybe that's a mobility issue, maybe he can't

391
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Speaker 2: get outside the tackles, or maybe it's the fact that

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Speaker 2: the offensive line just.

393
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Speaker 1: Allows too many people to get through.

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Speaker 2: So you know, this is setting up to be really

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Speaker 2: bad day for Max Duggan and for Quentin Johnson. No

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00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 2: explosiveness and a defense that just can't support you their

397
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 2: bottom ten and defensive finishing drive. So every Texas drive

398
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 2: that gets past the four yard line is going to

399
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 2: end up in a touchdown. So I think the proper

400
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 2: plays in here. I'm not that comfortable with a seven

401
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: and a half that I see on the board. I mean,

402
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 2: if TCU is fully healthy and they're really going at it,

403
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: the back door is always going to be there. The

404
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:18,159
Speaker 2: Texas deck team total over is short.

405
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Speaker 3: Me.

406
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,479
Speaker 2: This is a game where Texas could do almost all

407
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Speaker 2: the scoring if these injuries really play out and the

408
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 2: way Texas is playing defense right now, TCU team total

409
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 2: under has got some has some on it, but from a.

410
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Speaker 1: Moneyline perspective, stuck.

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Speaker 2: And this is what I'm gonna say, because I think

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Speaker 2: I'm going to put this through on the app and

413
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 2: I'm going to play it pretty hard. I can't see

414
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Speaker 2: any scenario that Texas loses this game minus two fifty.

415
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 2: It's worth it to just lay it, put it on there,

416
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 2: because everything inside and outside the spreadsheet says that this

417
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 2: is going to be a romp. I think that money

418
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 2: line is super short and it's worth a play.

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Speaker 3: I like seven earlier this week. I think that you'll

420
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Speaker 3: still you know, maybe come come game time. I do

421
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Speaker 3: think that there's going to be as we get closer,

422
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: bigger money that continues to come on Texas. You can

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Speaker 3: still find seven's out there as we're recording, and I

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Speaker 3: would lay like late seven year. I think this just

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Speaker 3: sets up. This is like one of the luckiest Power

426
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Speaker 3: five teams versus one of the unluckiest, and it just

427
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 3: sets up with all the matchup advantages, it just feels

428
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 3: like it's gonna be a game where the Texas finally

429
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 3: gets every bounce and TCU doesn't. And by the way,

430
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 3: if another quarterback gets hurt going up against TCU. Hudson

431
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 3: Card's numbers are arguably better like when yours this year,

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Speaker 3: So Texas will.

433
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 2: Be he will be pressured either. He won't be pressured either.

434
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 2: He'll be That's when Hudson Card makes me Yeah, we'll

435
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 2: be fine on that front. So yeah, I think this

436
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 2: is hook them, hook them, hook them. And by the way,

437
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 2: my if you followed me on my Texas Big Twelve future,

438
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: if they win out, they are going to the Big

439
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 2: Twelve Championship because basically what will happen is they have

440
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 2: the tyberger for Kansas State if they win this game,

441
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 2: and then they'll eventually play Baylor and assume if Baylor

442
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: wins this week and TCU, all TCU will have to do,

443
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 2: even if they lose the bailor all tc used to

444
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: do is beat Iowa State.

445
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 3: Tc just just win one game and they're in the

446
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 3: Big Twelve Championship, most likely the second spot, assuming no upsets.

447
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 3: There are the other scenarios with Kansas State, but assuming

448
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 3: no oposits, it'll come down to TCU playing the winner

449
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 3: of Texas Baylor if this plays out how I think

450
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: it does, right, Yeah, all right, yeah, hook them. Let's

451
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 3: move on to another game with college football playoff implications.

452
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 3: Let's go out West, Let's go to Eugene. Washington at Oregon.

453
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: Oregon is a thirteen and a half point favorite over

454
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: under seventy two and a half. This Oregon, I think

455
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 3: if they went out and they win the Pactual Championship,

456
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 3: they're gonna have a strong case to go to the

457
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 3: College Football Playoff, especially if other teams fall. So Oregon

458
00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 3: is very motivated to keep winning. Naturally, my instinct tells

459
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 3: me that this is probably the peak of the Oregon market.

460
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 3: I mean, they've covered like five or six in a row.

461
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 3: Everyone is showing them so much love, saying they could

462
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: win it all. But like you know, you look in

463
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 3: the month of October, they beat cal Arizona Stanford in

464
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 3: a then they beat UCLA. Ucla didn't punt and they

465
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 3: won forty five to thirty. So I do think that

466
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 3: this is like their offense is performing at a peak,

467
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 3: peak level etlaite, Like, I don't think their offense can

468
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 3: get any better. I think that this is the peak

469
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: of the market. So when I look at this game,

470
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 3: I don't see how Washington gets many stops right, Like,

471
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 3: there's just no You can't break this game down and

472
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 3: say this is how they're gonna get stops. Bow Knicks

473
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 3: could misread the defense once or twice bow nixt season,

474
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: then full effects and throw a pick. There could be

475
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 3: obviously like a big sack negative play. But Washington's defense

476
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: is terrible. You look at adjusted EPA per play of

477
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 3: power five defenses, Washington is bottom five. They don't really

478
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: do anything well. But on the other side of the ball,

479
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 3: this is what people aren't talking about enough. Oregon's defense

480
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: is almost as bad. Their bottom ten power five adjusted

481
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 3: EPA per play. And like all the teams that I

482
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 3: mentioned that they played like they just kept on playing

483
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 3: Colorado too, but like Stafford put up four touchdowns, Arizona

484
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 3: put up twenty two, like they played Yu we got

485
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 3: all their receivers. Washington State put up forty plus. You

486
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: know UCLA didn't punt Oregon's defense. And then if you

487
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 3: break it down like you look, okay, why did Stafford

488
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 3: run the ball thirty four times? Did why did BYU

489
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 3: run it twenty five times? Well, all the receivers wrong,

490
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 3: But these teams are running it against some Oregons run

491
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 3: defense is pretty good. They're fairly respectable, but their past

492
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: defense numbers are horrific. They can't force any incompletions and

493
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 3: they get no pressure on the quarterback. They are one

494
00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty in passing down sack rate. So you

495
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 3: know what does Washington do very well? They don't really

496
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 3: run the ball, they don't play defense. They can pass

497
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 3: the ball. One of the best passing offenses in the country,

498
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 3: and they throw it a lot, like all they do

499
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 3: is throw it. It's like an ab They throw it

500
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 3: at like an air raid rate. That's great here, that's

501
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 3: what you want to do. You want to throw it

502
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 3: every down on Oregon. So and Penix is not going

503
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 3: to be under pressure. So this is a to me.

504
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: If it gets to fourteen, I'm waiting for the fourteen

505
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 3: because even if Oregon is like blowing this opening gets

506
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 3: a couples up back door wide open in this game.

507
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 3: And I just think that there's a chance that, you know, Washington,

508
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 3: maybe they get stopped once or tway and this game

509
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 3: just goes from seven to fourteen seven, Like Washington's offense

510
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: should have a ton of success here. For what it's worth.

511
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 3: Since two thousand and four, Oregon has dominated the series

512
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 3: fourteen and two straight up. Over that stretch, the Ducks

513
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 3: have gone twelve to zero to one against the spread

514
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 3: as a favor, which I thought was pretty wild. But yeah,

515
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 3: I think Washington's offense can keep up here just by

516
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 3: throwing it, which is all they do. I'm waiting to

517
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 3: get a fourteen. I think I'll have to grab it.

518
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: You agree or disagree?

519
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 2: Well, first off, this game is an over game, and

520
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: I'm saying that it's seventy two and a half. You know,

521
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 2: I'm saying that I'm feeling pretty confident in it.

522
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: It feels like UCLI Oregon all over it.

523
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm yeah, I'll get to that. But I

524
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: project this game at eleven and a half. There's value

525
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: on the Washington side. But of course you want that

526
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 2: fourteen to get that three score backdoor cover thing in there.

527
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: So I would happily wait for that or get it.

528
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: Live, because you know, with the way that these teams

529
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 2: are gonna throw downfield, you're gonna get some crazy live

530
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 2: number swings possibly, so listen.

531
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 3: I also I also think that before you go, I

532
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 3: think that is more important in this game. It's also

533
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 3: got a great live trading game because I don't think

534
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: Washington is gonna settle for field goals. You can't really

535
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: in this game. So like fourteen is so key because

536
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: like there's just gonna be they have to score touchdowns,

537
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 3: and I de Bor is a smart guy. I think

538
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 3: he knows that. So like falling thirteen is I think

539
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 3: way way less of a chance here given how I

540
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 3: think this plays out. So, yeah, the fourteen is massive.

541
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: It won't go there. I think it might. There's a

542
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 3: ton of public support there are. There's some sharp support

543
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 3: for Oregon too. I think it'll get there. You gotta

544
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: be quick, but the alerts on the action that we

545
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 3: got get them because I think it'll get scooped up

546
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: right away.

547
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and though I'll pivot over to the over, there's

548
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 2: a couple of things that you don't go around saying

549
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 2: I want over seventy two and a half. But there's

550
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 2: a few things in here that people should know. Both

551
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 2: of these offenses are top five in offensive finishing drives

552
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 2: that goes up against two defenses are outside the top

553
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 2: one hundred and defensive finishing drives, so a lot of touchdowns,

554
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: not field goals, and both offenses are top five and

555
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: havoc allowed.

556
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: What that means is is that Pennix and bone Knicks

557
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: are not going to be kicking the ball around.

558
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 2: There won't be interceptions, there won't be fumbles, and they

559
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 2: won't allow teams to play in their backfield. And both

560
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 2: offenses are national leaders in third down conversion percentage, and

561
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 2: these defenses are one hundred and twenty fourth and one

562
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: hundred twenty six and third down defense. So there's not

563
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 2: going to be who's getting a stop here? I mean

564
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: each team is going to have long drives that result

565
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 2: in points. Oregon's number one and success rated standard downs,

566
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 2: Washington is number one in success straight in passing downs.

567
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: So both these teams top eight and red zone TZ percentage.

568
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 2: I mean, it goes on and so you start to

569
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 2: feel like this is UCLA organ which we took an

570
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: over on a little ballsy and the number in the

571
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 2: seventy second over on it landed seventy five cash for everybody.

572
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 2: When you go and look at that, there was one punt,

573
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 2: four field goals, and there were points just left on

574
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 2: the table from those drives. Other than that, every single

575
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: offensive drive was productive. And there aren't a lot of

576
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: key numbers in the seventies, but seventy three is one

577
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: that hits one point five percent of college football game.

578
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: It's the biggest number in the seventies range, although it

579
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: doesn't happen that often. So there was buyback in this

580
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: market on seventy three, So over seventy two and a

581
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: half is the borderline where I would stop hitting the over.

582
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: But there's I mean, who's getting to stop here. No

583
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: one's getting a third down stop. And if there's a

584
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 2: field goal in this game, it be like seeing sasquatch.

585
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: I mean, you're just not going to see a lot

586
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: of field goals here. So that's how I'm gonna play it. Accordingly,

587
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: I don't see many teams getting the stop. Washington's offensive

588
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 2: numbers is obviously a little depressed because of the weather

589
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: last week. Oregon's defensive numbers.

590
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 3: Even maybe should be a little worse that they played

591
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 3: byu with any of the receivers. But these teams that

592
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: are trying to run it against Oregon are doing them

593
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 3: so much favor because the run defense is decent. Washington

594
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: won't do that, which is why I think that they'll

595
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 3: have no problem moving Wall. They just could come out

596
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 3: and throw it a million times, and that's okay, that's

597
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: what you want to do against Oregon. You don't need

598
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 3: to establish the run or do anything. So yeah, I agree,

599
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: it's over and uh it's Washington. I'm waiting on that fourteen.

600
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 3: If I don't get it, you know, if it stays

601
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: where it is now, I might buy it. I would

602
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 3: never hardly ever buy a fourteen, but in this game

603
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: I would. I would buy it up to like if

604
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 3: I could get like a minus one to eighteen, I think,

605
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 3: because I think it's that important in this game where

606
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: there should just be traded touchdowns. How one of these

607
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 3: teams could get a stop. Oytherway' is fumbles. The Oregon

608
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 3: has has recovered every one of their fumbles this year. Washington,

609
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 3: I think it is fumbled eight times. They've recovered seven

610
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 3: of the eight. So whose fumble luck is going to

611
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 3: run out? Because that literally could decide to cover. Is

612
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 3: just you fumble it the other team recovers, that's their

613
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 3: stop and then they score a touchdown. So keep an

614
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 3: eye on the loose rock, all right before we continue.

615
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: As a reminder, the Big Bets on Campus podcast is

616
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,200
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00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,120
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646
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 3: final marquee game. We're gonna go to the American for

647
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: a ranked matchup between UCF and two Lane. The Green

648
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 3: Wave are hosting UCF here this game. Let's see UCF.

649
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 3: The two ends down one and a half point favorite

650
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 3: over under fifty four. This game is at three thirty

651
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 3: Eastern on ESPN two. Just an enormous game for many reasons,

652
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 3: Bowl implications, Conference implications, just a massive game. I think

653
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 3: what we agreed on Texas, Washington, Alabama, olemess we both

654
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 3: are kind of madly the under I know we're going

655
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: to disagree in this game. So I'll let you go

656
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 3: first make your case. I think you have the total

657
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 3: in the side here.

658
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: I took Central Holida on the money line, so you know,

659
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,719
Speaker 2: I'll talk about that. But both of these teams love

660
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: to run the ball. I wrote this up on Action Networks,

661
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: so go check that out. You can see everything from

662
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: the from the total in the side here. But you know,

663
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 2: one of these teams has been better offensively. And let

664
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 2: me restate that these teams are heavy in the rush.

665
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 2: Both rush over fifty nine percent of the time. But

666
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 2: one of these teams is better at it offensively and

667
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: defending it defensively.

668
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: And UCF is top defense in the nation. When it

669
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: comes to the red zone, they allow just sixty one

670
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: percent of their attempts to be a score. Only Georgia

671
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: has forced a higher rate of field goals.

672
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 2: I mean, Central Florida has been fantastic when opponents get

673
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: into scoring position, and the Greenway defense has been excellent

674
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: limiting and explosive plays. Tulane has allowed just nine plays

675
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 2: from scrimmage this year to exceed thirty yards, So Tulsa

676
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: is two lane is seventh in coverage. But does that

677
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 2: matter if John Reese plum Lee returns over Mikey Keane,

678
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 2: because that becomes even even more heavy rush offense, and

679
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: they're not going to be a lot of throwing it

680
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: around against a really good secondary from Tulane. Where you

681
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 2: can beat them is on the ground, and Tulane has

682
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: been locked down on defense on opponents that fall behind schedule.

683
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: They're really good in passing downs on defense, but that's

684
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,719
Speaker 2: not really how UCF runs their twelfth and success rate

685
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 2: in standard downs thanks to the running game of RJ.

686
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 2: Harvey and Isaiah Bowser, And those are the two names

687
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 2: that I think are leading you as to get the

688
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 2: win here outright as an underdog. You know, it's just

689
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 2: one of those things where Central Florida is better in

690
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 2: the trench on both sides of the ball, and Tulane

691
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 2: has some defensive numbers that suggests that they can be

692
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 2: you know, they can get torn up on the ground.

693
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 2: They'll be great in coverage, but I don't if Mikey.

694
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 1: Keane is throwing.

695
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 2: He was serviceable, you know, didn't I think he had

696
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: what three touchdowns, didn't have an interception. But that's not

697
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 2: gonna be what Central Florida wants to do if Mikey

698
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 2: keenes and they're only going to throw on third downs.

699
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 2: So Central Florida is better in the trench on both

700
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 2: sides of the ball. That's why I'm backing them on

701
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 2: the money line.

702
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love Tulane here. All I do is cover,

703
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 3: and they all good enough. Respect I think they are

704
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 3: the number one. I think the most profitable team to

705
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 3: back this year against the spread, and for what it's worth,

706
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 3: since Willie Fritz arrived at tou Lane in twenty sixteen,

707
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 3: Tulane is the most profitable team to back at home.

708
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: They're twenty six and eleven against the spread, over seventy

709
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,720
Speaker 3: percent in the friendly confidence, covering by over five points

710
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: per game. But when I look at this, I love

711
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 3: love first of all. If you look at UCF, they

712
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 3: had no business winning that game against Memphis last week.

713
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: A couple of special teams bunders Ryan Silverfield going forward

714
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 3: on fourth and sixteen after a horseshit targeting call by

715
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 3: the Way, which flipped that whole game on its head.

716
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 3: Memphis also one zero of two on fourth downs. They

717
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 3: out gained UCF, but just every little break went UCF's way.

718
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 3: And by the way, I like the opponents are six

719
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 3: of twenty one on fourth down against UCF this year.

720
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 3: And you know they're holding opponents to sixty one percent

721
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 3: of scores in the red zone, which you mentioned. You

722
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 3: could look at it the other way is that there

723
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 3: could be some regression there.

724
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 1: But I love this.

725
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 3: I just love this two lane defense. Their cordin air

726
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 3: Anthon isn't for a big time promotion here shortly, but yes,

727
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 3: their trench isn't great, but they play this three man

728
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 3: tight front where they just kind of take up their

729
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: two ends play inside of the tackles, and then their

730
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: nose tackle plays on top of the center and they

731
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,240
Speaker 3: kind of just take up space to try to occupy

732
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 3: bockers and they don't get a great push. That's why

733
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 3: I think their lineyards are off, but their linebackers fill

734
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 3: gaps unbelievably well. I mean, they have the I think

735
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,919
Speaker 3: the best linebacker group in all of group of five.

736
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 3: So I do think YOUCF can have some success running,

737
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 3: but too late is going to get enough stots of

738
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 3: their linebackers and secondary and the other side of the ball.

739
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: Tou lane's biggest weakness on offense. You know, they have

740
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 3: Taj Spears, an excellent running back, Pratt very experienced quarterback.

741
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: He can run it himself a little bit. Their biggest

742
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 3: problem is their offensive line can't pass block. That's not

743
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 3: an issue here because UCF doesn't get any pressure. Two

744
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 3: Lane's offensive line one hundreds and sacrate UCF defense ninety

745
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,879
Speaker 3: fifth and sacrate Pratt also to throw over the middle

746
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 3: of the field. Well, you have one of the uses

747
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 3: best defenders, Jean Baptist, who might not play. Both of

748
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 3: the two other safeties are also questionable, So I think

749
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 3: they can attack there. But Pratt's gonna have time, and

750
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 3: when he has time with a clean pocket, he is

751
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 3: significantly better than when he's under pressure. So yeah, I

752
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 3: think this UCF defense is vulnerable in the secondary. That's

753
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: where you attack them, That's where ECU attack them. And

754
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 3: I think that Tulane can attack them if they have time,

755
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 3: which they should hear. So yeah, I think Tulane at

756
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: home with this defense is gonna set the tone. I'm

757
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 3: excited for everyone to watch them. I can see how

758
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 3: you can make the case for UCF's rush offense, but

759
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: I'm siding with the Green Wave. Let's go Tulane. I

760
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 3: can't wait for this game. I'm actually really excited to

761
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,240
Speaker 3: watch him. All right, let's move on to the rundown.

762
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: What do we got here? Five games? Go through them quickly.

763
00:37:55,800 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 3: Louisville at Clemson Clemson seven point favorite. Here is this

764
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 3: a letdown for Clemson? Like, oh man, we're done, our

765
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 3: season's over. Do they rally here? They've already clinched the

766
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: coastal For what it's worth, I'm just not a fan

767
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 3: of Clemson anywhere I look. The receivers aren't good. They

768
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 3: have one reliable offensive lineman at their left tackle and McFadden.

769
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 3: Their defense is now one hundred and twentieth, an opportunity

770
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 3: rate sixty fourth and sack grate. They're not going to

771
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 3: get pressure on Cunningham. Louisville has a chance to get

772
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 3: a ton of pressure. That's what they're doing. So I

773
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,879
Speaker 3: don't know. I'm leaning Louisville here. They're playing, they're playing.

774
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 3: These are two teams having in different directions. What are

775
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 3: your thoughts here?

776
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't made a bet on it, but I'm

777
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 2: looking for a more depressed number on Clemson before I

778
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 2: fire on the Tigers.

779
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: There's just I thought there.

780
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 3: Would be huge back on your DJU bullshit.

781
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm back on my DJU bullshit. And there's

782
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 2: just not a lot of huge advantages here in the

783
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 2: rushing metrics. To say, the elite Cunningham to har Jordan

784
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: and ty On Evans are just going to run wild

785
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 2: on this Clemson front seven, which is what you have

786
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 2: to do to make Clemson look pedestrian, right, And the

787
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 2: success rate from the rushing perspective doesn't say Louisville is

788
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: going to be able to pull that off. And plus

789
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: malite Cunningham has a dinged hand. We don't know what

790
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 2: the status of that is, if he's going to lay

791
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 2: off being a.

792
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: Ball carrier here.

793
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: But Louisville on the defensive side continues to be a

794
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,959
Speaker 2: very poor tackling team. They're outside the top one hundred

795
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 2: and limiting pass explosiveness also, so you know DJU and

796
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 2: Will Shipley, they've created fifty nine missed tackles this season

797
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 2: on the ground. That's going to be available here with

798
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 2: this poor tackling from the Cardinals, and also the penalties

799
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 2: got Centerfield's team just can't get away from the flags

800
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty, first in the nation at penalties,

801
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 2: and you know, Clinton is the side for me here.

802
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of selling of Clemson stock

803
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: in the market.

804
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: May have gone a little bit too far, but I

805
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 2: just don't see rushing advantages for Louisville in this game

806
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 2: per their success rate.

807
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't buy this clumb I would not like

808
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 3: points this Clemson team under any circumstance. I think that

809
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: Louis's gonna be able to get a ton of pressure

810
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 3: on Dju. He's been good against the Blitz, but that's

811
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 3: when the Blitz doesn't get home under pressure is ninety

812
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 3: six and adjusted completion percentage Louisville top ten across the

813
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: board in sacrate. Montgomery sonogo, I'm dual a dab all

814
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 3: their depth guys. They get pressure every single time, and

815
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 3: they blew up Wake for his entire game plan by

816
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 3: getting pressure. I don't know. I I think this is

817
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 3: Louisville or nothing. But from a stock perspective, yeah, you're

818
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 3: probably not buying You're probably buying Clemson at the right time.

819
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: If you still believe in the Tigers, I personally do not.

820
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: All right, let's stay in the ACC U n C

821
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 3: at Wake. Wake is a three and a half point

822
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,879
Speaker 3: home favorite. UNC just needs one more win to clinch

823
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 3: the Coastal, which means we will get UNC versus Clemson

824
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 3: in the a CEC Championship game. UNC has Wake NC

825
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 3: State and then they get Georgia Tech at home, so

826
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: you could pretty much pencil them in to the a

827
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 3: SEC Championship. Uh, Wake. You know the thing I worry

828
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 3: about here is I want to sell you UNC, but

829
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 3: I do not want to say. I don't want to

830
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 3: sell them as a dog. With Drake May, who I

831
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 3: think will be if he was going in the draft

832
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: this year. I think he should be the number one pick.

833
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be the best pro of any

834
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 3: quarterback in college bet for right now. You look at

835
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 3: his pressure numbers, he is unbelievable. He doesn't have a

836
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 3: great offensive line. UNC's defense stinks across the board, horrendous, awful.

837
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 3: But Wake far as defense, which is improved in Brad Lambert,

838
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 3: is mainly improved against the run. It's still very vulnerable

839
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 3: against the pass, which is what matters against UNC. By

840
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 3: the way. UNC's awful defense also doesn't have no Tailor,

841
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 3: one of their best edge rushers now he's out for

842
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,959
Speaker 3: the year. UNC has won the past two games fifty

843
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 3: eight to fifty five and fifty nine to fifty three

844
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 3: the past two seasons. The reason why this total is

845
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,280
Speaker 3: I think the highest of the season in college football.

846
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 3: The problem if I lay it with three and a

847
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 3: half with Wake is like, what if there could be

848
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 3: up ten late? Then the UNC is gonna just lose

849
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 3: by They're gonna get in the back door. So if

850
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: you like Wake, that's what I would be petrified of.

851
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 3: I don't want I want to fade Drake May here

852
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 3: and what should be a complete shootout, great live trading game.

853
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

854
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take Wake in this game.

855
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 2: And I don't know if I'm going to fire if

856
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:11,919
Speaker 2: it gets down to three, or if I'm gonna play

857
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 2: it live. But Wake is going to be the side

858
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: here for me. The worst unit in this game is

859
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 2: the UNC defense. They can't generate havoc. They're near dead

860
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 2: last against the rush, their bottom fifteen in defensive finishing

861
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 2: drives like Wake should have every advantage here. With Sam

862
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: Hartman getting scores up and their twenty first on offensive

863
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 2: finishing drive and what it means there's gonna be a

864
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 2: lot of touchdowns here. They're not going to settle for

865
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 2: field goals. And the Wake Forest defense is improved with

866
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 2: Brad Lambert. You mentioned mostly against the rush, but especially

867
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 2: from havoc perspective, and that's bad for North Carolina because

868
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 2: they're outside the top fifty.

869
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 1: And taking care of the ball.

870
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 2: It's kind of correlated the offensive line giving up forty

871
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 2: nine tackles for loss this season. So expect Wake Forest

872
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 2: to be playing in the backfield a lot and Wake's

873
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 2: going to keep moving the chains. You know, North Carolina

874
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: their defense is one hundred and sixth and the third

875
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 2: down defense they can't stop anybody, and they're one hundred

876
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,399
Speaker 2: and twenty eighth the standard down success rate, which means

877
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 2: Wake Ors is going to snap the ball in fir

878
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:02,919
Speaker 2: first down and get another first down.

879
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: So I just don't see. I know UNC can go

880
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: nuts on offense, but.

881
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 2: Wake's playing a lot better defense, uh, And I know

882
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 2: that their pass defense is not that great. But at

883
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 2: the same time, there's gonna be a spot where UNC

884
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: is gonna have to run the ball or do something

885
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: on the ground, and Wake's gonna be able to get

886
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 2: some havoc on Drake May. So you know, Wake has decided.

887
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 2: For me, it's just a you know, am I gonna

888
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 2: play live? Or am I gonna buy the three and

889
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 2: a half. But it's definitely Deebon Deacons here for me.

890
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 3: I don't mind the Wakes side, but I would I

891
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 3: just wouldn't lay three and a half. So like, maybe

892
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: if if money line are three, because you're you're up

893
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 3: ten at any point in that game, you'll never feel comfortable.

894
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 3: And how many times have we seen Wake in a

895
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 3: shootout and that ends like forty eight, forty five, fifty one,

896
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 3: forty eight. So maybe it's a money line piece. Maybe

897
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 3: it's a money line play round robin piece. Maybe you

898
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 3: wait for the three. I think there might be maybe

899
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 3: some UNC money could potentially come in, but and I

900
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 3: also don't it's probably square as hell. I don't mind

901
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 3: the over like I don't see UNC getting any stops Wake.

902
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: Forest also has some turnover regression on offense coming. They've

903
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 3: been unlucky in that department the past few weeks. UNC,

904
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,240
Speaker 3: I mean, Drake May has been great under pressure. UNC

905
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 3: will keep chucking until the end. They're gonna put put

906
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:18,760
Speaker 3: up their points. I mean both these games have combined

907
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 3: for one hundred and twelve and one hundred and thirteen

908
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 3: the past two years. It's over nothing. I would not

909
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: play an under with anybody's money in this game. All right,

910
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 3: let's move on to your hogs. LSU at Arkansas. LSU,

911
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 3: like I said before, can cluch a Division with a

912
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 3: win and Obama win. This is all Hogs for me.

913
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 3: All I wanted was three. This is the spot of

914
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 3: the year, coming off the Liberty loss they and LSU

915
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 3: is coming off the emotional win over Alabama in overtime.

916
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 3: Although I just don't think that Bryce Young was right

917
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:51,359
Speaker 3: for that game, just that horrendous spot. If you're into

918
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 3: that stuff, and I do think it matters with college kids,

919
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 3: I think this is one of the best spots of

920
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 3: the year. You're also selling high on LSU. I mean

921
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 3: I've been back in LSU of they've been cashing. This

922
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 3: is the peak of the market for LSU. Remember four

923
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 3: weeks ago, this is a team that got dominated at Auburn.

924
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 3: They pulled out the win, but they got statistically dominated.

925
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 3: Now they've been proved of the course of the season.

926
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 3: But a look what it's worth. Sandy covers is twelve

927
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 3: and six against the spread as an underdog, including eight

928
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 3: and three against the spread against top twenty teams, including

929
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 3: a perfect six and h if you exclude Alabama and Georgia.

930
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 3: But their offensive line here for Arkansas one of the

931
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 3: best in the country. I think it controlled a lot

932
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 3: of scrimmage. I think Arkansas can run the ball, and

933
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:40,359
Speaker 3: I alas use defense has been vulnerable against the run,

934
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 3: and I just Jefferson's numbers under pressure have been He's

935
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 3: been the highest rated quarterback in the country under pressure.

936
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 3: This is just all spot for me, and I do

937
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 3: think that there's some match of ventite for Arkansas. Their

938
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: defense is bad, but in a spot like this, that's

939
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 3: where you see the jump like you can't execute because

940
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 3: you care, but you're tackling your energy and look, Slusher

941
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 3: is going to be out. But he hasn't been that

942
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 3: great since he came back and moved this strong safety.

943
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 3: This is this is Arkansas for me.

944
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 1: I hope you agree. No whoo pig suy absolute dumpster fined,

945
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: dumpster fine. I don't know how we win a game

946
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: the rest of the year. Just blow the program up.

947
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 3: Give us a death.

948
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 1: Sentence Collins talking razorback football. Not even close. Wow. And

949
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 1: you know plot twist.

950
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: Actually, lcu's offensive line is playing way better than Arkansas's

951
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 2: offensive line. I win did some research and bet labs

952
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 2: on Brian Kelly, Like when does when he wins games

953
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 2: as an underdog, what does he do the following week?

954
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 2: In his career, He's eighteen twelve and one against the spread,

955
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 2: and you can shoot holes in those spots. But I

956
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 2: mean he's already done it twice this season where he

957
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 2: showed up off of an underdog victory and then covered

958
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 2: the next week. That goes back to the type of

959
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 2: coach that he is, Like, I mean, great coaches don't

960
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 2: allow their teams to have hangovers or letdowns or overlooks

961
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,839
Speaker 2: or an anything like that. And Brian Kelly should win

962
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,400
Speaker 2: Coach of the Year considering this team had the highest

963
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 2: a number of snaps come in of any other culture

964
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 2: ball team from the transfer portal. So it's really just

965
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 2: been a masterful job trying to get this to work.

966
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,439
Speaker 2: You gotta get some credit defensive corner or Matt House

967
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 2: coming in. He was a linebacker coach for the Chiefs.

968
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 2: They have a very complex multi personnel scheme that's top

969
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 2: twenty and passing success rate in finishing drives, and freshman

970
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 2: linebacker Harold Perkins is like he's must see TV now.

971
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 2: He is just going crazy on defensive plays. The Hogs

972
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 2: were dreadful on offense against Liberty. kJ Jefferson wasn't injured.

973
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,919
Speaker 2: He was called banged up, just really sore. Piven says,

974
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 2: it's not going to be a factor this week, but

975
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what I believe anymore. And Raheem Sanders'

976
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 2: yards is running. The ball is just diminishing week over week.

977
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 2: There is nothing behind him. Dominic Johnson is out for

978
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 2: the season. AJ Green didn't pan out. We had a

979
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 2: stable of four running backs last year. Now it's just

980
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 2: Raheem and his numbers per game are going down by

981
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:59,720
Speaker 2: the week. And listen, the defense loses Miles Slusher. Slusher

982
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 2: was a big part of this defense because he could

983
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:03,240
Speaker 2: line up at corner, he could line up a safety,

984
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 2: you can play the slot. He got involved with a

985
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 2: little bit of an incident with a crowd, got suspended

986
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: for this game. Put his hands on a cop.

987
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: Not not a good thing.

988
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,879
Speaker 2: So he'll be out for this game. And that brings

989
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 2: up Quincy McAdoo. As you know, he's gonna have to

990
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 2: start lining up everywhere, so it's very new for him.

991
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 1: But listen to Arkansas.

992
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 2: I was one hundred and fifteenth and rushing success rate

993
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 2: on defense, and like I said, that LSU offensive line

994
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 2: right now, they are absolutely dominating. They're the number one

995
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 2: unit in the nation. And offensive stuff rate that is tremendous.

996
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 2: I could believe when I saw it in the sheet.

997
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 2: Arkansas's now bottom ten defense and passing down success rate

998
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 2: and third downs and that translation is that Jayden Daniels

999
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 2: zone read will never be stopped. It will never be stopped.

1000
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 2: There could be some sleepiness. This is the old SEC

1001
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 2: Jefferson Pilot time slot eleven AM local kick. I did

1002
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 2: take a first half under, but LS minus three is

1003
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 2: still on the borders. You and I are recording this,

1004
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 2: I make it four and a half, so I buy

1005
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 2: it it four two just for a lot less. But

1006
00:48:58,239 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 2: I can't make a case on either side of the

1007
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 2: ball for Arkansas. They are not playing well. The coaching

1008
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,399
Speaker 2: staff does not look happy with each other. They don't

1009
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 2: look happy with the decisions on the field. They're not

1010
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 2: happy with the execution and it's getting worse. And now

1011
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 2: we got players putting their hands on cops at two

1012
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 2: o'clock in the morning just off Dixon Street. Things are

1013
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 2: not going well at Arkansas whatsoever for the first time.

1014
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 3: In a long time this year, which makes me happy.

1015
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 3: Which makes you overy this game. You haven't had a

1016
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 3: great feel in your Hogs. Sometimes you get in a

1017
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 3: rhythm with the team. You haven't gotten in rhythm with

1018
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 3: them all year. So for my bank roll, I hope

1019
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 3: that you're off again. I think Arkansas win's this game

1020
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:34,799
Speaker 3: out right. Woo pig suey.

1021
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: Woo woo woo pig suey.

1022
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 3: All right, Kansas State dot Baylor. They gave me the

1023
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 3: big twelve Baylor two and a half point home favorite.

1024
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 3: Intriguing matchup here. I think it comes back to like

1025
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 3: Duke and Isoma for Kansas State generated enough pressure on

1026
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 3: Shape and to throw them off. He has a clean pocket.

1027
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 3: He's so much better. What do you see here?

1028
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: Over over?

1029
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 2: I want the over here, but I'm waiting on word

1030
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 2: for Elik Knowles and Cad Warner. Both have not practiced

1031
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: this week, but they were expec did back soon. And

1032
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 2: if you want to play the over. You're gonna have

1033
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 2: to have those guys back for Kansas State, but they

1034
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 2: love to run the ball a lot. Adrian Martinez induced

1035
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:09,399
Speaker 2: Vawner going up against a Baylor defense. It's eighty fourth

1036
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 2: and defensive stuff rate, so Martinez vonn are not going

1037
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 2: to be stopped behind the line of scrimmage or at

1038
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:16,879
Speaker 2: the point of attack. Kansas State is sixth in rush explosiveness.

1039
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 2: It's a serious issue for this Baylor defense, and Baylor's

1040
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 2: kind of been a sneaky overteam the entire season. On

1041
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 2: the flip side, Baylor runs sixty percent of the time

1042
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 2: with Richard Reese and Kansas State's one hundred and eleventh

1043
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 2: in defensive lineyards and one hundredth and suff right, so

1044
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 2: they can't stop the run either. Rushing attempts from the

1045
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 2: Bears are going to be just as successful than it

1046
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: is for the Wildcats here and ultimately, both these teams

1047
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 2: have heavy offensive finishing drive advantages that means more touchdowns

1048
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 2: than field goals. So I projected total fifty eight over

1049
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 2: fifty three and a half whatever up to fifty five.

1050
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 2: That's a good number, just kind of waiting on Knowles

1051
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 2: and kid Warner, even though they say they are going

1052
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 2: to play and even though that's not what Kansas State

1053
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 2: wants to do on offense, I've just kind of been

1054
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 2: hanging out on that. But I am going to take

1055
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 2: the over here. Believe already did.

1056
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:04,400
Speaker 3: Get ready for some Arkansas gifts for my hogs on Twitter.

1057
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 3: But noon on Saturday, are you're gonna be watching? You're

1058
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 3: in Lamba right now?

1059
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 1: Right?

1060
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm actually going to be in Chicago, and

1061
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 2: then after we do our live show, I'll be driving

1062
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 2: up and I'll be watching the game from Lambeau. I'll

1063
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 2: be in Curley's Bar. Yeah, Yeah, we'll go to stadium View.

1064
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 2: Stadium View is if you've ever been to Green Bay

1065
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,399
Speaker 2: I'll be there for Packers Cowboys this weekend. In case

1066
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 2: you guys want to track me down, I'll be in

1067
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:30,399
Speaker 2: there in stadium View a number of hours before the game,

1068
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 2: number of hours after the game. But one of the

1069
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,280
Speaker 2: few places I've been where it's not a hostile environment.

1070
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 2: Even when the Bears and Packers play, and I've been there,

1071
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,760
Speaker 2: it's like they all get along. It's just good, wholesome

1072
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 2: Midwest Wisconsin fun.

1073
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 3: Yeah. I'll bet I bet the Packers. So hopefully you

1074
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:48,720
Speaker 3: join me and I'll root me in. All right, let's

1075
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 3: move on to next game here, Georgia at Mississippi State.

1076
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 3: Mississippi State sixteen point home dog. Earlier in the year,

1077
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 3: I said, George is going down here, sticking to it

1078
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 3: is going down here. Now, George is better than I

1079
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 3: thought they were gonna be. But I'm sticking Why why

1080
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 3: do not stick with my call? Wow, you said Mississippi

1081
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 3: State was gonna be Georgia and you were wrong.

1082
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 1: Don't care?

1083
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I said they were gonna go down here.

1084
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 3: They're gonna go down here. Number one. It's such a

1085
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 3: bad spot, like they just had to prove it, Like,

1086
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 3: look at it, Look at me defending national champions back

1087
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 3: to boredom. Right, we talked about this last week. Why

1088
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 3: was Georgia so pedestrian looking at times? Well, they won

1089
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 3: the national championship last year. They know like their peak.

1090
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 3: Why were they messing around with Kent State? Why was

1091
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 3: Why would they almost lose out in Missouri board for board? Also,

1092
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 3: I think that this is a decent matchup for Mississippi

1093
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 3: State in a couple of different ways. First of all,

1094
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 3: it'll be the biggest test for Steps and Benn at

1095
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 3: this offense from a passing perspective all year. You look

1096
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:49,240
Speaker 3: at George's two biggest tests this year against Tennessee and Oregon,

1097
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 3: horrifying secondaries. Right, Mississippi State as a pro corner and

1098
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 3: pretty good pass defense. They're also really good in the

1099
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 3: red zone on both sides of the ball. Missispi State's

1100
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 3: number one, number one red zone offense as far as

1101
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 3: converting trips into touchdowns in college football. Georgia's number one defense.

1102
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:09,879
Speaker 3: It'll be interesting who can score in the red zone.

1103
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 3: Could decide this cover or this game. Missisp State's defense

1104
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 3: also been good in the red zone. But I think

1105
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 3: sets in. I think Will Rodgers can have success throwing

1106
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 3: here with the quick strike passing offense against the Georgia

1107
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 3: defense that likes to run man likes to get pressure.

1108
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,880
Speaker 3: Missisispi State's offensive line has been great, and they just

1109
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 3: get rid of the ball so quick. There's a reason

1110
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,400
Speaker 3: it's just not George. This isn't a great matchup for

1111
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 3: Georgia Schematically. There's a reason that in his second career start,

1112
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 3: Will Rodgers went to Athens two years ago and was

1113
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 3: forty one to fifty two for three hundred and forty yards.

1114
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,399
Speaker 3: One touchdown, no picks. There were twenty six point dogs.

1115
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 3: They lost by seven as a tie game in the

1116
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 3: fourth quarter. He will not be afraid. This will be

1117
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 3: a raucous environment.

1118
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 1: I like that.

1119
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 3: Mississipi State also plays a methodical pace unlike Tennessee. Limit

1120
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:02,360
Speaker 3: the number of possessions for a bigger dog. And for

1121
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 3: what it's worth, since two thousand and five, Leach is

1122
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 3: sixteen and seven against the spread as an underdog of

1123
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 3: more than fourteen points. He is the most profitable coach

1124
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 3: when catching over two touchdowns over the past twenty five years.

1125
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 3: That's over four hundred coaches. And if you exclude Alabama,

1126
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 3: who just destroys him every game, he's sixteen and four

1127
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 3: against the spread eighty percent when catching over two touchdowns.

1128
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 3: This is the spot the matchup Mississippi State for me.

1129
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean everything you say actually leads me into

1130
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:35,319
Speaker 2: a bet that I wanted to make the entire time,

1131
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 2: which is the under And to beat the air raid,

1132
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 2: you have to be good in standard downs and the

1133
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 2: Georgia defense is fifth and standard down success rate. And

1134
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 2: what we saw with him against Tennessee is that their

1135
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 2: safeties and corners moved up. They played man press coverage

1136
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 2: and they jammed that stacked wide receivers on the outside.

1137
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 2: Mississippi State, It's going to be the same thing there.

1138
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 2: I mean, the secondary is gonna come up. They're gonna

1139
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 2: jam targets for Will Rodgers at the line of scrimmage.

1140
00:54:58,040 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 2: It's going to be a problem for Misissippi State to

1141
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:01,760
Speaker 2: get some complete and their dink and dunk air raid offense.

1142
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:05,800
Speaker 2: And then you know, Missispi State they have issues on defense.

1143
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 2: They're not generating a pass rush, they're allowing too many explosives,

1144
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: their inefficiencies against the run. But then again, I like

1145
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 2: the under because Georgia may not be running that much.

1146
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 2: Because Kenny McIntosh might not be able to play. He

1147
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,040
Speaker 2: sat out in practices this week with a thigh bruise.

1148
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if he's going to play here, which

1149
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 2: I think kind of leads into an under here also,

1150
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 2: And you know, if George's bored and their defense is jamming,

1151
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 2: you know, targets of Will Rogers on the other side

1152
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 2: of the ball, and there's limited possessions in this game,

1153
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 2: this is an underplay for me all the way.

1154
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the way you beat missip State's run

1155
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 3: defense has been poor this year, so we'll see if

1156
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 3: Georgia comes out with a rush attack when their secondary

1157
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 3: has been very good and Missisppi State's is kind of

1158
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 3: like a bend, don't break defense. They've been really good

1159
00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 3: in the red zone, so we'll see if George's red

1160
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:57,800
Speaker 3: zone problems on offense sneak up here. But yeah, I

1161
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 3: don't mind the under in the spot for sure, But

1162
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 3: I mean if they come out and play man, it'll

1163
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 3: be if they don't, if they don't execute every single

1164
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 3: press correctly. Leech has so many man beaters, man beater

1165
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 3: routes in his arsenal, which is why you've seen teams

1166
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 3: just get destroyed when they try to play man. Georgia

1167
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 3: obviously very talented and could do that against a lot

1168
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 3: of teams. But you know that's why Rogers against the

1169
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 3: Man in twenty twenty was thirty two to forty one

1170
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:32,359
Speaker 3: for three forty just ball control, limit the possessions. So yeah,

1171
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 3: I don't mind the under. I think Missippi State keeps

1172
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 3: this close in all Honestly, Georgia probably will pull it out,

1173
00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 3: but I think Missippy State can give them a scare.

1174
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:42,359
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to your rapid fire. Let's

1175
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:45,359
Speaker 3: go through three games. Rapid fire get one minute each.

1176
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:50,280
Speaker 3: Missouri at Tennessee Tennessee twenty point favorite. Missouri's defense been nails,

1177
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 3: especially against the run. Little vulnerable gets the pass. Does

1178
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 3: Tennessee come out flat after that loss? Do they come

1179
00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 3: out angry? Do they come out and want to run

1180
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 3: it up? This miss defense compete? How does this playoff?

1181
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 1: Angry?

1182
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,239
Speaker 2: They come out angry? And the Tigers are terrible against

1183
00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 2: the explosive play. Specifically, they're one hundred and twenty fifth

1184
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 2: against rush explosiveness. So that points to Jalen Right and

1185
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 2: Jabari Small having big days. They have twenty one explosive

1186
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 2: runs on the season. And Hendon Hooker he's going to

1187
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 2: have you know, he's had fifteen exposive plays this season

1188
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 2: thanks to scrambling on the ground. So I think there's

1189
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 2: going to be a lot of that here. Missouri has

1190
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 2: been good, but if you look at their strength to

1191
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:29,400
Speaker 2: schedule and who they've gone up against the opposing offenses,

1192
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,560
Speaker 2: you know, you know, it doesn't scream that they've beaten

1193
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 2: the world here, but at the same time, you know

1194
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 2: Tennessee has all the motivation in the world to win

1195
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 2: points in the Harris Pool. Like we talked about on

1196
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 2: the VCS, the new BCS that you know, they've got

1197
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 2: to have style points here and I think they're going

1198
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 2: to try to get it.

1199
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 1: But the way to attack Missouri's on the ground.

1200
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 2: So I think if you can play, like, you know,

1201
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 2: any kind of props, I would look at Jalen Right

1202
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 2: and Jabari small rushing props on the over.

1203
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 1: But I do like Tennessee has scored a ton of

1204
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 1: points here.

1205
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 3: Southern miss that Coast Coastal is sitting pretty in the conference.

1206
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 3: But then Grayson McCall is done, probably for the year. Unbelievable.

1207
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at some of his numbers

1208
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 3: under pressure, you look at all quarterbacks under pressure, what

1209
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 3: he is doing from the justic completion percent, just his

1210
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 3: numbers are ridiculous. He's so good. He makes this offense go.

1211
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:24,440
Speaker 3: The defense has issues. This line has gone from like

1212
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 3: eight to nine on a five. I think you could

1213
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 3: argue that like McCall, Chris Reynolds with Charlotte, compared to

1214
00:58:31,640 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 3: their backups and what they mean to the offense, especially,

1215
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 3: McCall has been more consistent than Reynolds. We were each

1216
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 3: worth like ten points. Do you agree.

1217
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:43,200
Speaker 2: Bryce Carpenter is not a bad quarterback. I mean he's

1218
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:45,240
Speaker 2: played before at least yeah, yeah, and he's played a lot.

1219
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 2: He's got a lot of experience. The problem is is

1220
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 2: you just take for granted what Grayson McCall is when

1221
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 2: he runs zone read, when he runs the triple option

1222
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 2: in space, when he's in third downs. What Grayson McCall does,

1223
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 2: he makes it look fallless. He looks like an NFL quarterback.

1224
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: He's just he is that good at his job.

1225
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 2: And Bryce Carpenter is a is a run of the mill,

1226
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 2: above average quarterback in the Sun Belt, and he straight

1227
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:08,920
Speaker 2: You gotta remember.

1228
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 3: That Carpenter last year we did okay when he came in,

1229
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 3: but he was playing with a good cast like you've got,

1230
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 3: like Isaiah likely highly then they lost so much and

1231
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 3: Coastal Is still has one loss. Why. I think that's

1232
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 3: like where the gap is. It's all because McCall is

1233
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 3: just so good. So I think that with this depressed

1234
00:59:28,680 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 3: cast and just a way worse defense this year, you

1235
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 3: could see the effects here. But do you think that

1236
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 3: they overcome it and rally in one game? I No.

1237
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 1: I think Southern Miss has a great chance to upset here.

1238
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,919
Speaker 2: Their defense is yeah, their defense can absolutely give Bryce

1239
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,040
Speaker 2: Carpenter a ton of problems here, and they are one

1240
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 2: of the best teams when it comes to defensive finishing drive.

1241
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 2: So I think souther Miss can can win this game

1242
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 2: out right. The problem is the number just keeps getting

1243
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 2: so depressed there is not much value and anymore, it

1244
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 2: might as well just take a money line and play live.

1245
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 3: Round robin piece for me, Southern Miss. I was state

1246
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 3: at Oklahoma State. I was state fighting for a bowl.

1247
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State in free fall mode. You've already established their frauds.

1248
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,160
Speaker 3: Are you buying loan the mayor? Are you continuing to

1249
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 3: sell off?

1250
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:14,400
Speaker 2: Well, I mean the starter could be any of the

1251
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: three quarterbacks, right, I mean, we don't know who it is,

1252
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 2: and you can't trust much of the news out there,

1253
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 2: so you will see. I don't know why Spencer Sanders

1254
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:23,440
Speaker 2: will play, but it right now, it could.

1255
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 1: Be any of the three.

1256
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 2: Iowa State is now a heavy pass team in fifty

1257
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:29,680
Speaker 2: seven percent, and the Cyclones are top five in limiting

1258
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 2: explosive plays. And you know that's a primary way that

1259
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State generates points. So you know this again points

1260
01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:37,680
Speaker 2: to an under here. Iowa State's defense is going to

1261
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 2: have success against Oklahoma State, and if Okahama State cannot

1262
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 2: create explosive plays, it won't move the chains with their

1263
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 2: success rate numbers at all. So I like Iowa State

1264
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 2: here to win this game. I think we've seen a

1265
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:50,439
Speaker 2: little bit of the market, you know, move a little

1266
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 2: bit in the cyclones direction. But you know, if Spencer

1267
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 2: Sanders isn't playing. Even if he is, Iowa State is

1268
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 2: so great at limiting explosive plays, which is what the

1269
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 2: Cowboys live on on offense. So big plus here for

1270
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 2: Iowa State.

1271
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's I always stated or nothing, especially

1272
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 3: as Sanders is out. Oklahoma State's so beat up they

1273
01:01:09,080 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 3: might be emotionally drained, physically drained after this stretch, deflated.

1274
01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 3: And if it's either one of the backup quarterbacks, you

1275
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 3: don't want a backup quarterback going up against this Iowa

1276
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 3: State defense. It just screams mistakes. I think I was

1277
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:26,560
Speaker 3: thinking it's to win on the road and Yoklahoma State win.

1278
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 3: Total under is alive. Never thought I'd say that. All right,

1279
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 3: good stuff there by the way, just a quick reminder,

1280
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:37,240
Speaker 3: make sure you check out the group of five guys.

1281
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 3: Mike and Mike episode as already out comes out the

1282
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,320
Speaker 3: day before US. They do a great job, a lot

1283
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 3: less rambling than US, more digestible episode. They've been killing

1284
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:47,720
Speaker 3: it all year, so make sure you check them out

1285
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 3: on the same feed. Let's move on to some trash.

1286
01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 3: What's that smell? It stinks, but I mean just trash,

1287
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 3: sweet sweet trash. The trash is a gold mine, old mine.

1288
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:07,760
Speaker 3: Last week there was only two pieces of trash. People

1289
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 3: were upset, So there's I got more this week, So

1290
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 3: let's go through it. I'll give my quick speel on

1291
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:17,840
Speaker 3: five at five trash. You say yes or no? All right?

1292
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:20,920
Speaker 3: First one USF plus seventeen and a half against SMU.

1293
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 3: This is this They could lose by sixty. But this

1294
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:26,440
Speaker 3: is a new coach factor. I've been betting it all year.

1295
01:02:26,640 --> 01:02:30,280
Speaker 3: It's worked out well. Teams that fired their coach this

1296
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:32,439
Speaker 3: year are now thirteen and eleven against the spread after

1297
01:02:32,480 --> 01:02:34,360
Speaker 3: making the change. They were five and twenty one before.

1298
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:36,280
Speaker 3: That usually signified the bottom of the market. In the

1299
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 3: first game, he's seen a bunch of up sets, Lockerroo,

1300
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:42,120
Speaker 3: morale boost, you have some new looks. It's also a

1301
01:02:42,200 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 3: horrible spot for SMU. Score seventy seven against Houston. You

1302
01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 3: got two lane on deck. You're going to lowly USF

1303
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 3: and USS. You got to run the ball here. They

1304
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 3: have a really good rushing offense. SMU cannot stop the run,

1305
01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:57,440
Speaker 3: so you can run the ball, score a lot of points,

1306
01:02:57,560 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 3: keep SMU's offense off the field. USF has no past

1307
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:03,200
Speaker 3: d they don't expect to stop there. But USS peak

1308
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 3: has been good this year, Like they almost won at Florida.

1309
01:03:06,120 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 3: They almost want it Sincy. It's like they have the talent,

1310
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 3: but down to a backup quarterback. I don't think it's

1311
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 3: that big of a drop off. I think it's too

1312
01:03:12,840 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 3: many points. I'm taking USF. It's scary, but whatever, so

1313
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:17,280
Speaker 3: what I mean it's way too many points.

1314
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 1: The number should be twelve.

1315
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 2: And then you already locked into the key metric here,

1316
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: which is South Florida's top ten and rush explosiveness and

1317
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 2: SMU's bottom ten and defending rush explosiveness.

1318
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 1: And that's where South Florida is going to make their

1319
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:28,520
Speaker 1: points to get this cover.

1320
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 3: All right, one for one on agree and let's go

1321
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:37,440
Speaker 3: Vandy plus eighteen at Kentucky. Horrible spot for Entucky Georgia

1322
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 3: on deck. This is a team that Kentucky is just

1323
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 3: limited on offense. Still, they can't run it. They try

1324
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 3: to run it too much, which means they can't build

1325
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 3: margin against teams. This is you know, stoops to Zwer

1326
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:49,160
Speaker 3: and three against the spread and Lang more than seventeen.

1327
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 3: All three, by the way, came against Vandy conference dog

1328
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:55,920
Speaker 3: over seven points. With a low total forty under sixty

1329
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 3: percent over the last forty years. Makes sense. Limited possessions,

1330
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 3: I think it. K Tucky just wants to get out

1331
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:05,919
Speaker 3: here healthy for Georgia next week, Mike Wright will start

1332
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 3: a quarterback not as good as Swan. He's horrible under pressure, okay,

1333
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:12,280
Speaker 3: and can run a little bit when he's not. Kentucky's

1334
01:04:12,280 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 3: not getting any pressure. Twenty points here. I'm taking the

1335
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 3: eighteen in just a terrible spot. From Kentucky's sleepy spot

1336
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:19,080
Speaker 3: to it's at noon and Lexington. No one's gonna care

1337
01:04:19,160 --> 01:04:19,400
Speaker 3: give me.

1338
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 1: Vandy and Kentucky runs offense at thirty two seconds per play.

1339
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 1: They're super slow.

1340
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 2: You're trying to cover a number, and I power rated

1341
01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:27,320
Speaker 2: at seventeen, so I mean, I get what the number is.

1342
01:04:27,400 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 2: But at the same time, the Wildcats are super slow

1343
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,880
Speaker 2: on offense and you know, Vanderbilt is not going to

1344
01:04:32,920 --> 01:04:35,240
Speaker 2: score any point. Maybe it's another undergame here because Vanderbilt,

1345
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 2: no matter who they've got back back there at quarterback,

1346
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:40,280
Speaker 2: they're near dead last and protecting their quarterback from a

1347
01:04:40,320 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 2: pass blocking perspective. And even though Kentucky's not all world

1348
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:45,760
Speaker 2: of pass rush, there's still mid FBS they can give

1349
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 2: them some problems here.

1350
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 1: So I would be uncomfortable backing Vanderbilt.

1351
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 2: Just because they you know, they like to give the

1352
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 2: ball up and they like to do stupid things at

1353
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:56,920
Speaker 2: the end of games. But at the same time, I

1354
01:04:56,960 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 2: think the under has value here because of the slow

1355
01:04:58,760 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 2: pace of the Kentucky offense.

1356
01:05:00,840 --> 01:05:04,080
Speaker 3: Don't mind the under all right, Yukon plus fourteen and

1357
01:05:04,120 --> 01:05:08,320
Speaker 3: a half against Liberty, don't care this. Maybe this will

1358
01:05:08,360 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 3: be a public dog the market. Maybe the market's finally

1359
01:05:11,280 --> 01:05:14,080
Speaker 3: catching up. I don't think it has. The market refuses.

1360
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 3: I think that just it's the residual effect of how

1361
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 3: bad Yukon was that they just have so much value

1362
01:05:19,880 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 3: every week. I mean, they're covering by over a touchdown

1363
01:05:22,080 --> 01:05:24,520
Speaker 3: per game this year. They're eight and two against the spread,

1364
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 3: the highest cover margin in the country. This is a

1365
01:05:27,640 --> 01:05:31,240
Speaker 3: horrible spot. For liberty second road game after upsetting Arkansas.

1366
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 3: They have va tech on deck. This is a motivated

1367
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 3: Yukon team at home, playing in front of a crowd

1368
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 3: that will actually be lively for once they're playing for

1369
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 3: Boil eligibility. If they win this game, Liberty is already

1370
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:45,280
Speaker 3: demonstrated or play down the competition. They beat Gardner Web

1371
01:05:45,360 --> 01:05:48,520
Speaker 3: by one at home. They beat Akron by nine at home.

1372
01:05:49,480 --> 01:05:51,800
Speaker 3: They are four to zero against the spread as underdogs.

1373
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 3: One in four is a favorite. Zero and three against

1374
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:57,560
Speaker 3: the spread is a double digit favorite. No day day

1375
01:05:57,600 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 3: Hunter you average is six point six yards per carry,

1376
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:04,640
Speaker 3: his backups at four point one. Hugh Freeze also said

1377
01:06:04,640 --> 01:06:06,520
Speaker 3: that they're just banged up in general. They're going to

1378
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 3: be shorthanded here after, which makes sense Liberty playing an

1379
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 3: SEC team. Yukon also had an extra day of prep

1380
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 3: after playing UMass. Give me Jim Moore's bunch to cover again.

1381
01:06:16,400 --> 01:06:16,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1382
01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 2: I actually like Yukon on their team total over here

1383
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 2: because there are advantages here against this defense, and I

1384
01:06:21,200 --> 01:06:24,040
Speaker 2: saw it with Arkansas and Liberty. Is that Arkansas was

1385
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:27,840
Speaker 2: extremely explosive in standard downs, like when when kJ J

1386
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:29,640
Speaker 2: Evererson decided in the second half that he was healthy

1387
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:31,880
Speaker 2: enough to pass. They actually made They finally had some

1388
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 2: sort of offense in the second half, and that really

1389
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,160
Speaker 2: stands out. In the numbers of Liberty right now, their

1390
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:40,520
Speaker 2: defense and standard downs explosiveness, they're near dead last. They're

1391
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:42,800
Speaker 2: in the bottom ten, and that's something that Yukon can expose.

1392
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 2: Yukon twenty seventh and rush explosiveness forty first and pass explosiveness.

1393
01:06:47,320 --> 01:06:49,800
Speaker 2: Liberty is outside the top one hundred defending explosive play.

1394
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:52,080
Speaker 2: So Yukon's going to get their points and it's all

1395
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 2: going to be via the explosive play. Don't have to

1396
01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 2: worry about the Liberty defense and the fact they're really

1397
01:06:56,600 --> 01:06:57,920
Speaker 2: good in the red zone because there might not be

1398
01:06:58,000 --> 01:07:01,240
Speaker 2: that many red zone plays that actually, you know, get

1399
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 2: them these scores. So I like Yukon's team total over,

1400
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:06,960
Speaker 2: I think the number is right, although I love the

1401
01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:09,720
Speaker 2: Huskies here too. Definitely a more motivated team in this week,

1402
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 2: and data Hunter is a huge loss for this Liberty offense.

1403
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:14,280
Speaker 1: Most losive player in Peter fifth grading.

1404
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 3: Yep, quick one here in New Mexico. If you can

1405
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 3: get over three touchdowns. This team just foxed themselves every week.

1406
01:07:21,680 --> 01:07:25,040
Speaker 3: They just last week against Utah State, they like returned

1407
01:07:25,080 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 3: to kick out of the end zone, and you'll at

1408
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 3: the one. They gave up a fake field goal touchdown,

1409
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:30,959
Speaker 3: they muffed a punt, they gave up a fumble return

1410
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:33,280
Speaker 3: for a touchdown. They just find ways to give up

1411
01:07:33,320 --> 01:07:36,560
Speaker 3: points every game. By this total thirty seven and you're

1412
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:39,960
Speaker 3: catching over three touchdowns. Rocky Long knows the option, although

1413
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 3: they get blown out by air force a lot. He

1414
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:44,680
Speaker 3: used to coach a defensive coordinator for Oregon State when

1415
01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:47,320
Speaker 3: they ran the option back in the early nineties. When

1416
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:50,760
Speaker 3: you lay over two touchdowns with the Service Academy, forty percent.

1417
01:07:50,960 --> 01:07:55,440
Speaker 3: Last thirty years, layover twenty one thirty eight percent. New

1418
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:58,560
Speaker 3: Mexico has a new quarterback justin Holiday. They basically are

1419
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:01,080
Speaker 3: running a triple option from show. He tries to throw it.

1420
01:08:01,400 --> 01:08:04,120
Speaker 3: He like threw it eighteen times for thirty yards against Fresno.

1421
01:08:04,360 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 3: I think he threw it fifty for fifty yards last week.

1422
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,920
Speaker 3: It was there was a bunch of wins. I don't

1423
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 3: know how they moved the ball. This is like a

1424
01:08:11,360 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 3: Service Academy game. I might just bet the under. New

1425
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 3: Mexico will probably fuck this up somehow. But catching three

1426
01:08:17,880 --> 01:08:20,640
Speaker 3: touchdowns with a service against a service academy with a

1427
01:08:20,680 --> 01:08:24,000
Speaker 3: total thirty seven. It's tempting. This is undecided trash for me.

1428
01:08:24,680 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 2: Oh, this is a New Mexico team total under. I mean,

1429
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 2: this offense is dreadful. They are one hundred and thirtieth

1430
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 2: in havoc allowed. They cannot protect the ball. Only one

1431
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:35,719
Speaker 2: other team is worse than them as far as tackles

1432
01:08:35,760 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 2: for loss, as far as fumbles. The New Mexico's dead

1433
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:40,560
Speaker 2: last and passing success rates. So if they fail on

1434
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 2: first and second down, they got to throw on third down.

1435
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:44,160
Speaker 2: That's not going to go well either. I mean, this

1436
01:08:44,479 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 2: is a disgusting analytical statue that I'm looking at from

1437
01:08:47,840 --> 01:08:50,240
Speaker 2: an offensive perspective. I have no love for this New

1438
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 2: Mexico offense. Who screwed me about like what a half

1439
01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:55,840
Speaker 2: point last week against Utah State. So kind of a

1440
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:57,559
Speaker 2: hate bet, kind of a revenge bet. I'm taking New

1441
01:08:57,560 --> 01:08:58,720
Speaker 2: Mexico team total under here.

1442
01:08:58,960 --> 01:09:00,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, they should have beat Utah State like out right

1443
01:09:00,840 --> 01:09:02,360
Speaker 3: last week. I want to go under it, and I

1444
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:04,560
Speaker 3: want to go to Mexico. I'm just afraid that, like

1445
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:07,160
Speaker 3: the Mexico is going to give away like thirty points

1446
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:10,200
Speaker 3: in bullshit like I wish they were just k Nie

1447
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:12,599
Speaker 3: knee punt like that. They'll be given the best chance

1448
01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:14,920
Speaker 3: to win, although they probably get the punt blocked. All right,

1449
01:09:15,000 --> 01:09:17,719
Speaker 3: last one drum roll, Well, we got two more chances.

1450
01:09:17,800 --> 01:09:22,240
Speaker 3: Baby Club lit dependent on if Chase Cunningham is out.

1451
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 3: If Chase cunning Ham is out for Middle Tennessee, which

1452
01:09:25,439 --> 01:09:27,840
Speaker 3: runs like a new air raid, the only thing they

1453
01:09:27,880 --> 01:09:29,599
Speaker 3: can do is pass. They cannot run the ball. Their

1454
01:09:29,640 --> 01:09:32,679
Speaker 3: offensive line is horrible and they're back. They just can't

1455
01:09:32,760 --> 01:09:35,479
Speaker 3: run the ball at all. It's basically Chase cutting up

1456
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:39,000
Speaker 3: throwing it. Their quarterback, Nick the Tiato, who's like on

1457
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:40,840
Speaker 3: the Scout team last year, ended up being Bowl MVP

1458
01:09:41,040 --> 01:09:43,720
Speaker 3: when Solitos just decided not to show up. He was

1459
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:45,320
Speaker 3: awful last week and they played one of the worst

1460
01:09:45,360 --> 01:09:48,519
Speaker 3: defenses in the country in La tact. Probably the only

1461
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:52,679
Speaker 3: one worst is Charlotte than maybe Acron, but uh, Charlotte

1462
01:09:52,680 --> 01:09:57,599
Speaker 3: has We'll have the much better offense if the Tiato

1463
01:09:57,840 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 3: has to start. And I don't know how Middle Tennessee

1464
01:10:00,200 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 3: will really take advantage of Charles units. They're put up points.

1465
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:05,439
Speaker 3: Everyone will against Charlotte, but Charlotte should put up points

1466
01:10:05,479 --> 01:10:07,800
Speaker 3: here as well. Charles check on Hyde. You just hope

1467
01:10:07,800 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 3: you get the good Charlotte. But if Chase Cunning is

1468
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:12,599
Speaker 3: out too much value in Charlotte, we're We'll be back

1469
01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:14,719
Speaker 3: on Club Lit. Baby, keep an eye on the app.

1470
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:16,160
Speaker 3: We're not done with you yet.

1471
01:10:17,400 --> 01:10:20,760
Speaker 2: I don't know Militazy's defensive numbers are I mean their

1472
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:22,640
Speaker 2: top ten and tackling. That's gonna limit a lot of

1473
01:10:22,680 --> 01:10:26,799
Speaker 2: explosive plays. There's seventeenth in defensive havoc. That's that's problems

1474
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 2: for Renolds or anybody else on the Charlotte offense. I

1475
01:10:29,240 --> 01:10:31,040
Speaker 2: know Middle Tennessee might be out with their quarterback, and

1476
01:10:31,080 --> 01:10:33,320
Speaker 2: that's what I'm waiting on. But the defensive numbers tell

1477
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:34,920
Speaker 2: me that Charlotte's going to have some struggles here.

1478
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:39,080
Speaker 3: Club Lit. Maybe I'll be dancing alone in there, probably

1479
01:10:39,080 --> 01:10:41,439
Speaker 3: everyone is. It'll be one or two, one or two

1480
01:10:41,479 --> 01:10:44,880
Speaker 3: people I'll buy shots for that visit the club. But

1481
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:48,599
Speaker 3: the club is on its down. It did, but there's

1482
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,760
Speaker 3: like a backbar that's still that survived the fire that'll

1483
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:53,960
Speaker 3: be open this weekend. So let's see who joins me

1484
01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:58,599
Speaker 3: one minute. San Diego State, San Jose State. San Jose

1485
01:10:58,680 --> 01:11:00,719
Speaker 3: State's two and a half point favorite on the road

1486
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:02,840
Speaker 3: total you get thirty seconds ago.

1487
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:06,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, San Diego State is twenty first and rushing rushing

1488
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:09,000
Speaker 2: expected points. They're very explosive on the ground, especially with

1489
01:11:09,040 --> 01:11:09,799
Speaker 2: their new quarterback.

1490
01:11:10,120 --> 01:11:10,920
Speaker 1: San Jose State.

1491
01:11:11,040 --> 01:11:13,240
Speaker 2: That is the biggest problem with their defense right now

1492
01:11:13,360 --> 01:11:16,440
Speaker 2: is they are near dead last and defending rush explosiveness.

1493
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 2: So I expect San Diego State to move in chunks

1494
01:11:19,280 --> 01:11:20,479
Speaker 2: on the ground down the field.

1495
01:11:20,600 --> 01:11:22,120
Speaker 1: I like the over end this game.

1496
01:11:22,840 --> 01:11:25,479
Speaker 2: As techovers, I'm not going to depend on the San

1497
01:11:25,520 --> 01:11:28,000
Speaker 2: Diego State San Diego State defense to hold this down,

1498
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:30,880
Speaker 2: especially when they struggle in lineyards and pass success. Right,

1499
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:32,680
Speaker 2: So give me the over here, San Jose State, San

1500
01:11:32,720 --> 01:11:34,840
Speaker 2: Diego State. I have a couple of San Jose State

1501
01:11:34,920 --> 01:11:36,800
Speaker 2: futures I gotta get. They got to get some wins here,

1502
01:11:36,960 --> 01:11:38,040
Speaker 2: Like this is a big game for them.

1503
01:11:38,400 --> 01:11:40,799
Speaker 3: Well, they're gonna go over because they play someone shitty

1504
01:11:40,920 --> 01:11:43,400
Speaker 3: yeah next week. Yeah, I just hope books honor it

1505
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 3: because they missed. They didn't play a game. I don't

1506
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 3: know if they're gonna they better. I don't know if

1507
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:50,240
Speaker 3: they're going to make that up in the off week.

1508
01:11:50,280 --> 01:11:52,920
Speaker 3: We'll see, all right. One final game that I wanted

1509
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:55,120
Speaker 3: to talk about Auburn text A and M. I'm gonna

1510
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:56,800
Speaker 3: fade text A M till the Cals come home. We're

1511
01:11:56,840 --> 01:11:58,720
Speaker 3: doing it again this week. I think they might have quit.

1512
01:11:59,160 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 3: I don't know what their most innovation is here. Maybe

1513
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:04,080
Speaker 3: they'll get up to ruin LSU season. If LSU loses

1514
01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:06,720
Speaker 3: this weekend, you know, maybe maybe they want to get

1515
01:12:06,760 --> 01:12:08,240
Speaker 3: up to go to a bowl. But this is a

1516
01:12:08,280 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 3: team that wanted to go to the College World Playoff.

1517
01:12:09,960 --> 01:12:12,439
Speaker 3: They're not sitting at three and six. They've lost five

1518
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:14,960
Speaker 3: games in a row. I don't know where their heads

1519
01:12:15,000 --> 01:12:17,759
Speaker 3: at mentally. Their run defense is awful. That's what Alburn

1520
01:12:17,760 --> 01:12:20,120
Speaker 3: could do here. And whereas tex A M looks like

1521
01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:23,160
Speaker 3: a corpse to me, Auburn full of life last week

1522
01:12:23,439 --> 01:12:26,360
Speaker 3: under Cadillac Williams going nuts on the sideline. His players

1523
01:12:26,400 --> 01:12:28,240
Speaker 3: were feeding off of it. And by the way, they

1524
01:12:28,280 --> 01:12:31,719
Speaker 3: were on short preparation that week. Fire the staff Monday,

1525
01:12:31,880 --> 01:12:34,439
Speaker 3: get all new positions on Tuesday. They're looking at the

1526
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:37,840
Speaker 3: playbook during the game and trying to figure out what

1527
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:39,760
Speaker 3: the plays are because they weren't familiar with it. They're

1528
01:12:39,760 --> 01:12:41,200
Speaker 3: going to have a full week of preparation now you're

1529
01:12:41,200 --> 01:12:43,120
Speaker 3: going to see some new looks. Be a big crowd here.

1530
01:12:43,120 --> 01:12:45,160
Speaker 3: I think they're going to show up. Give me war Eagle.

1531
01:12:45,640 --> 01:12:47,200
Speaker 3: Let's move on. Before we get out of here, we

1532
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:49,599
Speaker 3: have one final leader business. Let's go three and out.

1533
01:12:51,720 --> 01:12:53,800
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1534
01:12:54,880 --> 01:12:57,720
Speaker 3: All right, first down favorite bet, I will kick things off.

1535
01:12:58,040 --> 01:13:01,120
Speaker 3: Give me the Navy. This is the ninety meeting. Historic

1536
01:13:01,680 --> 01:13:05,240
Speaker 3: rivalry dates back to nineteen twenty seven, been played every

1537
01:13:05,280 --> 01:13:09,200
Speaker 3: year except for the COVID year in Baltimore. Horrible spot

1538
01:13:09,320 --> 01:13:13,519
Speaker 3: for Notre Dame here after beating two ranked opponents, selling

1539
01:13:13,600 --> 01:13:16,439
Speaker 3: high on them, they've been awful as a favorite. It's

1540
01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:18,960
Speaker 3: a young, inexperienced team. They're gonna have ebbs and flows.

1541
01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:22,200
Speaker 3: The Navy matches up well though. But by the way,

1542
01:13:22,280 --> 01:13:24,880
Speaker 3: catching over two touchdowns with the Service Academy historically has

1543
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:27,559
Speaker 3: been a great bet. But these are two slow teams,

1544
01:13:28,080 --> 01:13:30,960
Speaker 3: two of the top fifteen teams in rush rate. Clock's

1545
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:33,559
Speaker 3: gonna be bleeding. Kind of like the under as well.

1546
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:36,240
Speaker 3: But what can Notre Dame do? They lean on their

1547
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 3: run game, They don't have great outside receivers. What does

1548
01:13:40,439 --> 01:13:45,280
Speaker 3: Navy do great run defense? They're top fifteen nationally lineyard stuff,

1549
01:13:45,360 --> 01:13:48,120
Speaker 3: right opportunity, right guards for rush ePaper rush rush success rate.

1550
01:13:49,280 --> 01:13:52,439
Speaker 3: One of the worst secondaries in the country. They can't

1551
01:13:52,439 --> 01:13:55,880
Speaker 3: really take advantage of that. So Navy can battle here.

1552
01:13:56,600 --> 01:13:58,640
Speaker 3: They can battle with their run defense and the other

1553
01:13:58,720 --> 01:14:01,680
Speaker 3: side of the ball. Maybe obviously he doesn't pass at all. Ever,

1554
01:14:02,120 --> 01:14:04,719
Speaker 3: and now they're down there, you know a back of quarterback.

1555
01:14:04,760 --> 01:14:07,280
Speaker 3: It doesn't pass at all. Better runner, They're just gonna

1556
01:14:07,320 --> 01:14:09,479
Speaker 3: run the ball million times here. Notre names run defense

1557
01:14:09,560 --> 01:14:12,439
Speaker 3: is worse than their past defense. Too many points for

1558
01:14:12,479 --> 01:14:16,000
Speaker 3: a Service Academy team in a bad spot for Notre Dame.

1559
01:14:16,479 --> 01:14:18,600
Speaker 3: Notre Dame oh and four against the spread as a

1560
01:14:18,640 --> 01:14:21,479
Speaker 3: double digit favorite this year they lost outright to Marshall

1561
01:14:21,479 --> 01:14:24,200
Speaker 3: and outright to Stanford. I wouldn't be shocked if navs

1562
01:14:24,240 --> 01:14:27,160
Speaker 3: in this game. Yeah, Service Academies forty twenty two and

1563
01:14:27,280 --> 01:14:30,120
Speaker 3: two sixty four and a half percent when catching more

1564
01:14:30,160 --> 01:14:32,400
Speaker 3: than two touchdowns since two thousand and five, covered by

1565
01:14:32,520 --> 01:14:34,800
Speaker 3: or five points a game, makes sense. Hard to cover

1566
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:38,040
Speaker 3: these big numbers you get Service Academy. I think there's

1567
01:14:38,080 --> 01:14:40,640
Speaker 3: the spot to back Navy. Where you going favorite? Bet?

1568
01:14:40,920 --> 01:14:42,519
Speaker 2: I'm going to go to Tennessee on the team total

1569
01:14:42,600 --> 01:14:44,280
Speaker 2: over thirty seven and a half. They have to make

1570
01:14:44,320 --> 01:14:44,920
Speaker 2: a statement here.

1571
01:14:44,960 --> 01:14:47,000
Speaker 1: They gotta keep in the good graces of the College

1572
01:14:47,000 --> 01:14:48,640
Speaker 1: Football Playoff Committee. A lot of that is.

1573
01:14:48,720 --> 01:14:50,519
Speaker 2: Narrative, but when you look at a Missouri strength to

1574
01:14:50,520 --> 01:14:53,120
Speaker 2: schedule fortieth in the nation, they just have built this

1575
01:14:53,240 --> 01:14:56,000
Speaker 2: defensive record on teams that are subpart of what Tennessee is.

1576
01:14:56,680 --> 01:14:59,400
Speaker 2: And there is a couple of specific areas where Missouri

1577
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:01,800
Speaker 2: is ball and that is in standard downs, they give

1578
01:15:01,880 --> 01:15:03,840
Speaker 2: up a ton of explosive plays one hundred and twenty

1579
01:15:03,880 --> 01:15:06,880
Speaker 2: seventh in the nation, meaning when teams open up the

1580
01:15:07,040 --> 01:15:09,400
Speaker 2: pass and first and second down, they're able to take

1581
01:15:09,439 --> 01:15:11,840
Speaker 2: advantage of the Missouri defense who may be creeping into

1582
01:15:11,880 --> 01:15:13,960
Speaker 2: the box and trying to stop the rush. But there

1583
01:15:14,040 --> 01:15:17,760
Speaker 2: are heavy rush advantages here for Tennessee. Also, the reason

1584
01:15:17,840 --> 01:15:20,679
Speaker 2: why Georgia was able to stop Tennessee from doing anything

1585
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,000
Speaker 2: is because they had corners and safeties that were able

1586
01:15:23,040 --> 01:15:25,479
Speaker 2: to get up on the line and jam the wide

1587
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:29,280
Speaker 2: receivers Jalen Hyatt specifically, and get them off of their routes.

1588
01:15:29,560 --> 01:15:32,600
Speaker 2: When you can disrupt the routes of Tennessee, then you

1589
01:15:32,680 --> 01:15:35,439
Speaker 2: can stop that offense. But Missouri does not have corners

1590
01:15:35,479 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 2: in safeties at Georgia's level, it's going to be able

1591
01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:40,400
Speaker 2: to do that style points here, whatever you want to

1592
01:15:40,439 --> 01:15:43,240
Speaker 2: call it. There is a schematic advantagers, there's a technical

1593
01:15:43,320 --> 01:15:45,400
Speaker 2: advantage here, and I think Tennessee is going to be

1594
01:15:45,439 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 2: out to score as many points as they possibly can.

1595
01:15:47,479 --> 01:15:49,880
Speaker 2: I can't think for one reason why they would lay

1596
01:15:49,920 --> 01:15:51,519
Speaker 2: off a possession at the end of the game and

1597
01:15:51,600 --> 01:15:53,560
Speaker 2: not want to score more points. So I'm going to

1598
01:15:53,600 --> 01:15:55,599
Speaker 2: take Tennessee team total over thirty seven and a half.

1599
01:15:56,240 --> 01:15:58,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, and yeah, Missouri also can't. There's no reason Tennessee

1600
01:15:58,760 --> 01:16:00,799
Speaker 3: will lay off. Missouri cant s gener the same pressure

1601
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:04,439
Speaker 3: in the pocket as Georgia. Ken Hooker was under fire

1602
01:16:04,479 --> 01:16:07,000
Speaker 3: all game, missed those couple deep shots, only had a

1603
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:09,479
Speaker 3: couple missed him because he was just so battered and

1604
01:16:09,680 --> 01:16:12,680
Speaker 3: bruised and footwork was off. He hasn't missed them all year.

1605
01:16:13,520 --> 01:16:17,320
Speaker 3: Don't think we'll miss them this week. All right, let's

1606
01:16:17,320 --> 01:16:20,479
Speaker 3: move on to second down or favorite overdog. You're still

1607
01:16:20,520 --> 01:16:22,920
Speaker 3: in your drought. We're gonna go back to you going second.

1608
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:25,000
Speaker 3: I've been carrying the weight here like you carried the

1609
01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:29,080
Speaker 3: weight for underdogs early in the season. I'll keep it simple.

1610
01:16:29,160 --> 01:16:31,680
Speaker 3: Texas hook him. Talked about it earlier. This is the

1611
01:16:31,760 --> 01:16:35,479
Speaker 3: game tc gets exposed. All the bounces finally go Texas's way.

1612
01:16:35,479 --> 01:16:36,800
Speaker 3: But they should move the ball whether they want to

1613
01:16:36,840 --> 01:16:38,479
Speaker 3: do it on the ground, Jon Robinson through the air.

1614
01:16:39,040 --> 01:16:42,080
Speaker 3: Texas's run defense is elite. Even if their quarterback gets

1615
01:16:42,160 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 3: hurt like happens every week at TCU, they have a

1616
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:48,160
Speaker 3: great backup. Quentin Johnson banged up, Gary Patterson knows Max

1617
01:16:48,240 --> 01:16:52,280
Speaker 3: Duggan very well. This is Texas all the way. Hook them.

1618
01:16:52,680 --> 01:16:53,160
Speaker 3: Where you going?

1619
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:55,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna pivot off to Michigan State is my

1620
01:16:55,920 --> 01:16:59,080
Speaker 1: favorite overdog. The Rutgers has been bad. They've been horrific

1621
01:16:59,160 --> 01:16:59,519
Speaker 1: on the road.

1622
01:16:59,560 --> 01:17:02,280
Speaker 2: They've covered just one game in the last five when

1623
01:17:02,280 --> 01:17:03,720
Speaker 2: they've been away from Pitskatawani.

1624
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:06,240
Speaker 1: Rutgers doesn't have many advantages in this game.

1625
01:17:06,320 --> 01:17:08,799
Speaker 2: Dead last and rush explosiveness there one hundred and thirtieth

1626
01:17:09,280 --> 01:17:12,719
Speaker 2: and passing down success rate eighty eighth and defensive finishing drives.

1627
01:17:12,720 --> 01:17:16,080
Speaker 2: There's just holes all over this resume, and all of

1628
01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:18,519
Speaker 2: these are reasons that are rejuvenated. Michigan State is going

1629
01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:20,320
Speaker 2: to cover this game. Is there can still make a

1630
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:24,000
Speaker 2: Bowl game. And when Peyton Thorn and Jayden Reid are healthy,

1631
01:17:24,120 --> 01:17:26,759
Speaker 2: that is a dynamic connection that's just kind of been missing.

1632
01:17:27,200 --> 01:17:29,960
Speaker 2: Michigan State has not lost the cover since October eighth

1633
01:17:30,160 --> 01:17:32,680
Speaker 2: against Ohio State. They put up three hund eight one

1634
01:17:32,760 --> 01:17:35,599
Speaker 2: yards against Wisconsin. Again, that was Thorn and Jayden Reid.

1635
01:17:36,200 --> 01:17:38,240
Speaker 2: It's just been instant points from them when they are healthy.

1636
01:17:38,600 --> 01:17:40,320
Speaker 2: Eight players have been suspended off.

1637
01:17:40,240 --> 01:17:40,960
Speaker 1: This Michigan State.

1638
01:17:41,000 --> 01:17:42,639
Speaker 2: I think that's why the number came off the board.

1639
01:17:42,920 --> 01:17:44,560
Speaker 2: A few of them are defensive names in there, but

1640
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 2: none of those names are going to give Rutgers any

1641
01:17:47,400 --> 01:17:51,640
Speaker 2: points because Rutgers Ruggers severely struggles with scoring points here.

1642
01:17:51,720 --> 01:17:53,639
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take Michigan States all the points.

1643
01:17:53,640 --> 01:17:55,479
Speaker 2: I think the narrative about these eight players being kicked

1644
01:17:55,479 --> 01:17:57,479
Speaker 2: out is just overdrawn completely.

1645
01:17:57,800 --> 01:17:59,920
Speaker 3: Don't disagree. But where did you say Rutgers is from?

1646
01:18:00,360 --> 01:18:03,479
Speaker 1: Did I say Piscattawani? Well?

1647
01:18:05,439 --> 01:18:08,960
Speaker 3: Sorry, sorry, I thought this Scattawani was like I'm about

1648
01:18:08,960 --> 01:18:11,720
Speaker 3: to landa Wisconsin sounds like a Wisconsin town name.

1649
01:18:11,800 --> 01:18:13,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I got Wisconsin on the brain here.

1650
01:18:14,479 --> 01:18:16,960
Speaker 3: All right, we got one final winter business and that's

1651
01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:25,120
Speaker 3: our underdog moneyline parlay, our favorite money line underdogs turning

1652
01:18:25,280 --> 01:18:27,920
Speaker 3: good weekends into great weekends.

1653
01:18:28,600 --> 01:18:31,080
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay.

1654
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:37,240
Speaker 3: Big Sue Arkansas is getting it done. Spot of the year.

1655
01:18:38,080 --> 01:18:42,360
Speaker 3: It's time to sell LSU. Sammy Covers is back. I

1656
01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:44,639
Speaker 3: can't wait to battle. Let's go Hogs. Where are you going?

1657
01:18:45,200 --> 01:18:47,519
Speaker 2: Oh boy, yes, I'm gonna be involved this all right.

1658
01:18:47,520 --> 01:18:50,519
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Syracuse on the money line here. I

1659
01:18:50,640 --> 01:18:52,800
Speaker 2: love Syracuse in the spot. I project the game lower

1660
01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:54,639
Speaker 2: than what the market has right now, and the market

1661
01:18:54,720 --> 01:18:57,439
Speaker 2: is where it's hat because of Garrett Schrader, an injury

1662
01:18:57,720 --> 01:19:00,920
Speaker 2: that was described as the team is insative to what

1663
01:19:01,160 --> 01:19:04,600
Speaker 2: his injury is. I'm not sure if that means he

1664
01:19:04,680 --> 01:19:06,200
Speaker 2: took a shot in the groin. I'm not sure if

1665
01:19:06,200 --> 01:19:08,120
Speaker 2: he got his balls busted, I'm not sure. But when

1666
01:19:08,160 --> 01:19:11,120
Speaker 2: the team is sensitive to what his injury is, you know,

1667
01:19:11,240 --> 01:19:12,760
Speaker 2: it's really hard to read if he's going to be

1668
01:19:12,800 --> 01:19:14,400
Speaker 2: in there or not. But assuming that he plays, a

1669
01:19:14,520 --> 01:19:17,240
Speaker 2: number is way too high. The Orange do not allow

1670
01:19:17,320 --> 01:19:20,759
Speaker 2: explosive plays whatsoever. Their top twenty versus ground and pass attacks,

1671
01:19:20,800 --> 01:19:22,599
Speaker 2: and that's a big advantage against Florida State.

1672
01:19:22,960 --> 01:19:24,759
Speaker 1: Florida State may dominate the line.

1673
01:19:24,600 --> 01:19:27,560
Speaker 2: Of scrimmage, but Syracuse doesn't allow explosive so it's not

1674
01:19:28,080 --> 01:19:30,920
Speaker 2: like the You know, the Seminoles have a big ways

1675
01:19:30,960 --> 01:19:33,479
Speaker 2: to go, and then Syracuse is six and defensive finishing drives.

1676
01:19:33,479 --> 01:19:36,599
Speaker 2: Whether Strader plays or not, this defense has been fantastic

1677
01:19:36,640 --> 01:19:40,360
Speaker 2: for the Orange all season. You know, backup quarterback Carlos

1678
01:19:40,400 --> 01:19:43,360
Speaker 2: del Rio Wilson is He's got seventy dropbacks on the season,

1679
01:19:43,400 --> 01:19:45,600
Speaker 2: so hopefully the drop to him isn't that much. But

1680
01:19:45,680 --> 01:19:48,880
Speaker 2: whether Schrader plays or not, Sean Tucker is leading a

1681
01:19:48,960 --> 01:19:51,800
Speaker 2: rush attack that just moves the chains every weekend when

1682
01:19:51,880 --> 01:19:54,920
Speaker 2: he's healthy, and he's healthy right now. Tucker was shut

1683
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:57,120
Speaker 2: down against Pitt last week. But there's a big difference

1684
01:19:57,160 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 2: in Pitt's rush defensive numbers against Florida State. It's numbers

1685
01:20:01,439 --> 01:20:04,600
Speaker 2: on defense is stopping the rush. Florida State's defensive lineyards

1686
01:20:04,600 --> 01:20:07,519
Speaker 2: and stuff rates are outside the top ninety. So Syracuse

1687
01:20:07,640 --> 01:20:09,160
Speaker 2: is going to have a ton of success on the

1688
01:20:09,200 --> 01:20:11,400
Speaker 2: ground no matter who the quarterback is. And I like

1689
01:20:11,439 --> 01:20:13,200
Speaker 2: them to win out right here up in the I

1690
01:20:13,200 --> 01:20:15,040
Speaker 2: think we can't call it the Carrier Dome anymore. So

1691
01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:18,840
Speaker 2: up in the dome, so give me the orange at home.

1692
01:20:18,880 --> 01:20:20,360
Speaker 1: Alright, it does.

1693
01:20:20,320 --> 01:20:23,479
Speaker 3: Feel like maybe it's the time the rebuy Sarahcuse after

1694
01:20:23,560 --> 01:20:25,720
Speaker 3: that did get a bit inflated, so hopefully they can

1695
01:20:26,200 --> 01:20:28,040
Speaker 3: bring it home for us. All right, that'll do it

1696
01:20:28,520 --> 01:20:31,080
Speaker 3: for us. Thanks to Colin as always for joining me.

1697
01:20:31,800 --> 01:20:34,439
Speaker 3: Enjoy your trip to Lambeau. Thanks to all of you

1698
01:20:34,560 --> 01:20:37,320
Speaker 3: for listening. Thanks to our audio and video teams on

1699
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:39,840
Speaker 3: the back end. Don't get enough credit. Make sure you

1700
01:20:39,840 --> 01:20:42,840
Speaker 3: subscribe on subscribe, subscribe, leave review. We also don't forget

1701
01:20:42,880 --> 01:20:44,840
Speaker 3: about the voicemail cash give away every week nine to

1702
01:20:44,920 --> 01:20:48,799
Speaker 3: five nine Bad Beat of our recap episode on Monday

1703
01:20:48,880 --> 01:20:51,920
Speaker 3: morning at ten thirty am Eastern Big Bets on Campus Live.

1704
01:20:52,280 --> 01:20:54,599
Speaker 3: We'll sweet out the link myself, Colin and Brett McMurphy.

1705
01:20:54,880 --> 01:20:57,400
Speaker 3: Thanks again to our sponsor bet MGM. That'll do it

1706
01:20:57,439 --> 01:21:00,200
Speaker 3: for us to try to find some last minute winners up.

1707
01:21:00,280 --> 01:21:01,599
Speaker 3: Let catch you all later for stures.

1708
01:21:02,200 --> 01:21:10,720
Speaker 1: Peace out, h