WEBVTT - Overconfidence: Hubris and Nemesis

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<v Speaker 1>In tedious exile. Now too long detained Dadalus languished for

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<v Speaker 1>his native land. The sea foreclosed his flight. Yet thus

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<v Speaker 1>he said, though earth and water, in subjection laid o

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<v Speaker 1>cruel minos thy dominion be, will go through air, for

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<v Speaker 1>sure the air is free. Then to new arts his

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<v Speaker 1>cunning thought applies, and to improve the work of nature,

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<v Speaker 1>tries a row of quills in gradual order, placed rise

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<v Speaker 1>by degrees in length from first to last, as on

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<v Speaker 1>a cliff. The ascending thicket grows or different reeds the

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<v Speaker 1>rural pipe compose. Along the middle runs a twine of flax.

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<v Speaker 1>The bottom stems are join'd by pliant wax, thus well compact.

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<v Speaker 1>A hollow bending brings the fine composure into real wings.

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<v Speaker 1>His boy, young Icarus, that near him, stood unthinking of

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<v Speaker 1>his fate, with smiles, pursued the floating feathers which the

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<v Speaker 1>moving air bore loosely from the ground and wasted here

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<v Speaker 1>and there. Or with the wax impertinently played, and with

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<v Speaker 1>his childish tricks, the great design delayed. The final master stroke.

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<v Speaker 1>At last imposed, and now the neat machine completely closed.

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<v Speaker 1>Fitting his pinions. On a flight, he tries and hung

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<v Speaker 1>self balanced and the beaten skies. Then thus instructs his child,

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<v Speaker 1>My boy, take care to win your course along the

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<v Speaker 1>middle air. If low the surge is wet your flagging plumes.

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<v Speaker 1>If high the sun the melting wax consumed, steer between both,

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<v Speaker 1>nor to the northern skies, nor south orion. Turn your

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<v Speaker 1>giddy eyes, but follow me. Let me before you lay

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<v Speaker 1>rules for the flight, and mock the pathless way. Then,

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<v Speaker 1>teaching with a fond concern his son, he took the

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<v Speaker 1>untried wings and fixed them on, but fixed with trembling hands,

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<v Speaker 1>and as he speaks, the tears rolled gently down his

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<v Speaker 1>age cheeks. Then kissed and in his arms embraced him fast,

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<v Speaker 1>but knew not this embrace must be the last. And

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<v Speaker 1>mounting upward as he wings his flight back on his charge,

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<v Speaker 1>he turns an aching sight as parent birds when their

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<v Speaker 1>first callow care leave the high ness to tempt the

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<v Speaker 1>liquid air, then cheers him on and oft with fatal art,

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<v Speaker 1>reminds the stripling to perform his part. These as the

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<v Speaker 1>angler at the silent brook, or mountain shepherd leaning on

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<v Speaker 1>his crook, or gaping plowman from the veil descries, they

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<v Speaker 1>stare and view them with religious eyes and straight conclude

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<v Speaker 1>them gods, since none but they, through their own azure skies,

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<v Speaker 1>could find a way. Now delos Paros on the left

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<v Speaker 1>are Scene and Samos, favored by Jove's haughty queen. Upon

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<v Speaker 1>the right the isle of Lebenthos, named and fair Calumny

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<v Speaker 1>for its honey famed. When now the boy whose childish

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<v Speaker 1>thoughts aspire to lofty your raims and make him ramble higher,

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<v Speaker 1>grown wild and wanton, more emboldened, flies far from his guide,

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<v Speaker 1>and soars among the skies. The softening wax that felt

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<v Speaker 1>a nearer son dissolved a pace and soon began to run.

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<v Speaker 1>The youth in vain, His melting pinions shakes, his feathers

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<v Speaker 1>gone no longer air. He takes oh Father, Father, as

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<v Speaker 1>he strove to cry down to the sea. He tumbled

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<v Speaker 1>from on high and found his fate, yet still subsists

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<v Speaker 1>by fame among those waters that retain his name. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to Stuff to Blow your Mind? A production of I

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<v Speaker 1>Heart Radios How Stuff Works? Hey, are you welcome to

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<v Speaker 1>stuff to blow your Mind? My name is Robert Lamb

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm Joe McCormick. And that was, of course from

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<v Speaker 1>Ovid's metamorphoses the Garthen Dryden translation the story of Daedalus

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<v Speaker 1>and Icarus one of our favorites that uh, actually i'd

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<v Speaker 1>say is a sort of recurring theme on invention as well. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it was one of our I believe we wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>originally call the show Datalists in fact, uh, and it

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<v Speaker 1>was decided that that was to obscure. The business masters

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<v Speaker 1>were like, people will not know what that is. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I enjoyed reading through this, uh, this excerpt

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<v Speaker 1>from from ovid here because even though we have talked

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<v Speaker 1>at length about Datalus and nicaras before and or at

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<v Speaker 1>least in passing, you know, bringing up to sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the metaphor and the invention and talked about we've talked

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<v Speaker 1>about data lists, other uh inventions and myth as well.

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<v Speaker 1>But this, this reading, I think is is rather nice

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<v Speaker 1>because it also captures the humanity of the characters and

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly as a father, you know, I can certainly

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<v Speaker 1>relate to some of these feelings as he's trying to

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<v Speaker 1>prepare his boy for the challenges ahead. There's real passion,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's passion in the different concerns of the father

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<v Speaker 1>and the son. The father wants freedom, wants escape, and

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<v Speaker 1>he wants safety, and the sun wants fun. It's basically

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<v Speaker 1>um Cat Stephen's song father and Son, but in in

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<v Speaker 1>in mythic form. Now, there are a lot of themes

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<v Speaker 1>you could get into when discussing the story of Icarus

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<v Speaker 1>and Deadla. So one of the main themes, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>that people draw out of this story is the theme

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<v Speaker 1>of over confidence and over confidence leading to disaster, right, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>and so that is going to be our main focus

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<v Speaker 1>for these episodes. But we're pretty excited about it. We

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<v Speaker 1>did no research and and we think we can we

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<v Speaker 1>can probably get four or five episodes out of this.

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<v Speaker 1>So we can just wing it, you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>winging it. Yes, yes, that is what it is. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that is. I wonder if that's where the phrase

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<v Speaker 1>comes from. You're just winging it like chorus. I don't know. Okay, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if you got lost in the English couplets there of

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<v Speaker 1>Garth and Dryden and so forth, Robert, could you just

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<v Speaker 1>give a brief summary of what actually happens in the

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<v Speaker 1>myth of Vicarus and Dedalus. Yeah, yeah, I'm just breaking

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<v Speaker 1>it down to the major plot points. Year. Um, these

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<v Speaker 1>these are artificial wings crafted by the master engineer Datalus,

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<v Speaker 1>and then he, uh, he helps his son Icarus put

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<v Speaker 1>them on. They're using these to escape from Minos. He

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<v Speaker 1>who is the master of the Maze and the master

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<v Speaker 1>of the minotaur um and uh so you know, he

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<v Speaker 1>puts these these amazing wings on him. But then Icarus

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<v Speaker 1>flies too close to the sun. The rays melt the

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<v Speaker 1>wax and he falls to his death. And he's been

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<v Speaker 1>specifically warned, yeah, don't fly too close to the sun.

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<v Speaker 1>It's gonna melt the wax. You're gonna plummet and fall.

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<v Speaker 1>But he still flies too high. He flies beyond the

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<v Speaker 1>the his ability, flies beyond the engineering constraints of the wings,

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<v Speaker 1>and perishes for it. I love the word choice in

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<v Speaker 1>the poem in the English version. He wants to ramble higher.

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<v Speaker 1>He's he's having fun. He's out there. He's like, it'll

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<v Speaker 1>be fine. Yeah. And I think one of the key

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<v Speaker 1>things to keep in mind about this myth, if we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at it and focusing on over confidence, is that

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<v Speaker 1>Datalus is a master at createing these wings, and Hi

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<v Speaker 1>Charas is no slouch at flying with them, obviously, so

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a you know, an Emperor's new clothes scenario

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<v Speaker 1>where one is confident, you know, with without any underlying skill,

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<v Speaker 1>Like there's plenty of skill to go around here, but

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<v Speaker 1>the ideas that charas As sends just a little too high.

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<v Speaker 1>He he goes to that place that he has worn

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<v Speaker 1>two road to to avoid, and that is his downfall.

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<v Speaker 1>Even though there is a real basis for confidence, the

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<v Speaker 1>confidence in the brain exceeds the confidence warranted by circumstances.

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<v Speaker 1>But then that becomes the whole focus of the myth. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>nobody stops to admire, like, hey, datal Is really built

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<v Speaker 1>some amazing wings and Icarus was really great at flying them.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we just focus on the fact that he dies

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<v Speaker 1>and falls into the ocean. And this very idea of

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<v Speaker 1>like overconfidence that you know that that meets a tragic

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<v Speaker 1>end is such a powerful and common theme of myths

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<v Speaker 1>and drama throughout history. Yeah, myths and drama and of

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<v Speaker 1>course human histories, which of course involve both myth making

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<v Speaker 1>and uh and dramatic storytelling telling. But there's just so

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<v Speaker 1>much of it. It's such a frequent trope that on

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<v Speaker 1>one hand, it's easy to just not think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>like this is just what happens in our stories. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we either can't get enough of tales of

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<v Speaker 1>hubrists and uh and over confidence, or it's just such

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<v Speaker 1>a common feature of human enterprise and ambition that is

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<v Speaker 1>just a necessary plot point in almost any tale worth telling. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's not a coincidence that so many figures

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<v Speaker 1>from history display hubris and overconfidence, because I think overconfidence

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<v Speaker 1>is the kind of trait that, in a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>cases specifically is what gets you into the history books

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<v Speaker 1>and uh. And from a historical point of view, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, granted, is not always a simple matter, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, when you encounter the all too frequent tales

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<v Speaker 1>of an overconfident but a net ruler, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>consider that, you know, uh, these you know, history is

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<v Speaker 1>told by the victors, and this is likely the story

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<v Speaker 1>about about about a deposed ruler. But sure enough, you

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<v Speaker 1>look at any um you know history of kings and emperors,

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<v Speaker 1>you will inevitably find multiple examples of someone who has

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<v Speaker 1>pointed out for their overconfidence like this, this ruler became

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<v Speaker 1>too overconfident and that was their downfall. And of course

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<v Speaker 1>the world of mythic expression is just full of wonderful

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<v Speaker 1>examples to chew on. One that certainly comes to mind

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<v Speaker 1>in Judaeo Christian traditions and especially in Milton's literary treatment

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<v Speaker 1>of the character, is that of Satan, like the classic

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<v Speaker 1>character who who you know, was prideful enough to rebel

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<v Speaker 1>against the all powerful creator God and uh and then

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<v Speaker 1>falls for it. And that is actually a concept from

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<v Speaker 1>the Bible itself, from from the tanaka. I mean, in

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<v Speaker 1>Proverbs sixteen eighteen, you get pride go with before destruction,

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<v Speaker 1>the haughty spirit before a fall. Yeah. Uh. And then

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<v Speaker 1>of course we already talked about about Icarus. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>You'll find plenty of examples of God's smiting immortal underlings

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<v Speaker 1>or mere mortals for find them, and often their central

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<v Speaker 1>crime is basically they that they dared to think themselves

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<v Speaker 1>greater than they are. They overstepped their status in place

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<v Speaker 1>in the grand hierarchy. In fact, in addition to Icarus,

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<v Speaker 1>I think at least two tales are worth pointing out.

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<v Speaker 1>But these are by far not the only stories of

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<v Speaker 1>God's punishing mortals and immortals for overstepping their boundaries. One

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<v Speaker 1>of my favorites is the Web of Arachne. So this

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<v Speaker 1>is this is a wonderful tale in which you have

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<v Speaker 1>the mortal Arachne, who challenges Athena, goddess of wisdom and crafts,

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<v Speaker 1>to a weaving contest, which, of course is always a

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<v Speaker 1>terrible thing to do. Never challenge a god to a

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<v Speaker 1>contest unless it's a fiddle contest, and that god is

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<v Speaker 1>the devil and you're down in Georgia, right, and then yes,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you can pull it off in the in that

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<v Speaker 1>in in that specific scenario. Um but but but in

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<v Speaker 1>this scenario, you know, you're not dealing with the devil,

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<v Speaker 1>You're dealing with the goddess Athena. And so Athena, as

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<v Speaker 1>one i'd expect, crafts a perfect tapestry, resplendent and depictions

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<v Speaker 1>of the gods punishing mortals for their hubrists and Arachne

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<v Speaker 1>it creates unequally awesome tapestry. But hers depicts all the

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<v Speaker 1>various ways that the gods have manipulated and tormented mortals. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>so she's getting a little fresh. Yeah. Well, they're both

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<v Speaker 1>putting a lot of, uh, you know, a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>emotion into their their work here there, But they're both

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<v Speaker 1>kind of taunting the other with their subject matter. The

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<v Speaker 1>problem is Arachne is immortal, and Athena is a god.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh And of course the Greek gods are not known

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<v Speaker 1>for their reasonable demeanor, right they don't, and so Athena

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't play fair. Instead, she becomes enraged, She destroys Arachne's work,

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<v Speaker 1>beats her, and leaves her to suicidal shame. And after

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<v Speaker 1>she has died, Arachne becomes the spiders of Earth. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of the origin story for spiders and and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth biological ideological myth. Right, it tells why spiders weave. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>But but one of the interesting wrinkles in all of

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<v Speaker 1>this is that both tapestries are accurate from their creator's

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<v Speaker 1>points of view, that the ending to this story is

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<v Speaker 1>either yet another example of the god's cruelty or another

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<v Speaker 1>example of mortals being rightfully punished for their pride. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And again, much like the chorus scenario, Arachne is highly skilled,

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<v Speaker 1>like she crafts of a work that rivals or even equals,

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<v Speaker 1>or perhaps even surpasses the work of the goddess. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>So she may not have overstepped her ability, but she

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<v Speaker 1>certainly oversteps her place. Right, it's a different kind of pride.

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<v Speaker 1>She wasn't overconfident and how good of a weaver she is.

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<v Speaker 1>She was overconfident in what she could get away with

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<v Speaker 1>saying yeah. And then of course another example, in one

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<v Speaker 1>that we come back to again and again on the show,

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<v Speaker 1>is that of Prometheus. Uh. Prometheus, the Titan, having stolen

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<v Speaker 1>from the gods the coreld a fire, defied them in

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<v Speaker 1>giving this secret to the mortals. Uh. He has then

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.840
<v Speaker 1>punished for all eternity for this sin. Yeah. Another one

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:10.679
<v Speaker 1>that comes to my mind is the myth of Feton,

0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 1>the son of the god Helio. So remember he wants

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:16.719
<v Speaker 1>to pilot the chariot. He's like, I want to get

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 1>in the chariot, but uh, he's warned it would not

0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:21.199
<v Speaker 1>be a good idea. And he's like, no, no, I

0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:24.320
<v Speaker 1>can handle it. I can Yeah, I can drive. And

0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.520
<v Speaker 1>he gets in there and the horses I don't remember

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.559
<v Speaker 1>exactly what happens, like the horses don't recognize him or something.

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.800
<v Speaker 1>They go nuts and the chariot crashes into the earth

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.640
<v Speaker 1>or something or there there's general disaster. Right. Yeah, that's

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.480
<v Speaker 1>a good one. And then there there are various other

0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.280
<v Speaker 1>tales as well that that we could we could we

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 1>could focus on because again it's just a recurring theme

0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 1>in Greek mythology. But but also you know other belief

0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 1>systems as well, like, for instance, just briefly, there's a

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.319
<v Speaker 1>a fun Chinese example of pride and punishment in which

0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:00.200
<v Speaker 1>the Yellow Emperor makes use of of ying long the

0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:04.280
<v Speaker 1>responding dragon to execute the God of war to you

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 1>after we dared to raise arms against the Yellow Emperor.

0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 1>So there that would be a tale of the god

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>of war being overconfident in his ability to overthrow the king. Yeah,

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:15.680
<v Speaker 1>so many times you do see a more of a

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.679
<v Speaker 1>militant example of this, you know, the idea that, oh,

0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 1>you think you can defeat the god, but you cannot,

0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 1>and you're punished for that um either and then other

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:27.760
<v Speaker 1>times it's a contest or something to that effect. One

0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:31.200
<v Speaker 1>thing that I love in the Greek conception of of

0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 1>hubris is that there was a goddess that existed purely

0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 1>to splatter people who displayed arrogance and over confidence. And

0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.720
<v Speaker 1>this was the goddess Nemesis, who I really think we

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.520
<v Speaker 1>we I wish we had a Nemesis today. Uh So

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 1>I found I was looking around for stuff about Nemesis,

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.120
<v Speaker 1>and I found this amazing thing that was a a

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.720
<v Speaker 1>hymn to the goddess Nemesis, composed by somebody from ancient

0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:59.360
<v Speaker 1>Greece named Mesomades. And this is a translation by somebody

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.880
<v Speaker 1>named yelled. Uh. So I've got to read this. This,

0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 1>this boiled my brain. Winged Nemesis, turner of the scales

0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.520
<v Speaker 1>of life, blue eyed goddess, daughter of Justice, who, with

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 1>your unbending bridle, dominate the vain arrogance of men and

0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:20.680
<v Speaker 1>loathing man's fatal vanity, obliterate black envy. Beneath your wheel,

0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.200
<v Speaker 1>unstable and leaving no imprint, The fate of men is

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.160
<v Speaker 1>tossed you, who come unnoticed in an instant to subdue

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 1>the insolent head. You measure life with your hand, and

0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 1>with frowning brows hold the yolke. Hail, blessed, immortal Goddess.

0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:40.760
<v Speaker 1>Winged Nemesis, turning the scales of life, imperishable and Holy

0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:46.440
<v Speaker 1>Goddess Nemesis, victory of unfurled wings, powerful, infallible, who shares

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:50.280
<v Speaker 1>the altar with justice, and furious at human pride, casts

0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a man into the abyss of Tartarus. Yeah. When I

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>read that at home the other day, I like literally

0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 1>exclaimed out loud um While I'm not usually a big

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.360
<v Speaker 1>like cast people into Tartarus kind of guy. You know,

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.240
<v Speaker 1>I don't love like eternal torment and hell and all that.

0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 1>I do kind of wish for a nemesis sometimes to

0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:12.520
<v Speaker 1>like fly in, scoop up the fatally vein and arrogant

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:16.720
<v Speaker 1>leaders who you know, inflict their over confidence on everybody else,

0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 1>and kind of just toss him under the wheel. Yeah,

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 1>I too love this concept of a nemesis. Uh. It's

0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.320
<v Speaker 1>also a frequent subject of paintings. You'll see a lot

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.240
<v Speaker 1>of you know, European paintings of a nemesis that really

0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:34.360
<v Speaker 1>uh to take advantage of these angelic properties that are

0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:39.000
<v Speaker 1>described here, this winged uh female form that is beautiful

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 1>and terrifying, an embodiment of something kind of like karma,

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, divine retribution, the goddess that comes to avenge

0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.720
<v Speaker 1>against you when you become too prideful. Though I do

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.240
<v Speaker 1>think it's actually more complicated than we usually think of

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:54.440
<v Speaker 1>hubris in the modern sense, right, because like the way

0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>we use hubris, it really does just generally mean like pride, arrogance,

0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.440
<v Speaker 1>and overconfidence. But I think you were looking into something

0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.399
<v Speaker 1>about how the ancient Greeks had a more complicated and

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:08.560
<v Speaker 1>specific yeah, define it gets it gets interesting. I was

0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 1>looking at at the Oxford Classical Dictionary, and as in

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 1>our Fisher pointed out, it was really more of intentionally

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:23.120
<v Speaker 1>dishonoring behavior. And the author points to Aristotle is providing

0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>a solid understanding of Greek hubrists. So Aristotle contends that

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:31.000
<v Speaker 1>hubris was quote doing and saying things at which the

0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 1>victim incurs shame, not in order that one may achieve

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.560
<v Speaker 1>anything other than what he's done, but simply to get

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.560
<v Speaker 1>pleasure from it. For those who act in return for

0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:44.720
<v Speaker 1>something do not commit hubris, they avenge themselves. The cause

0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 1>of the pleasure for those committing hubrists is that by

0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 1>harming people, they think themselves superior. That is why the

0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>young and the rich of humoristic as they think they

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.800
<v Speaker 1>are superior when they commit hubris. This is so it's

0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:01.679
<v Speaker 1>just sadism. Yeah, basically, it's just like being mean for

0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:05.760
<v Speaker 1>mean sake and being like hurting people in a dishonorable way.

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:10.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think specifically because it makes you feel superior, right, Yeah,

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:12.760
<v Speaker 1>And and it is also worth noting that like this

0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 1>is apparently really key to the system of honor and

0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:19.120
<v Speaker 1>dishonor that which really important to Greek society. That's right,

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.120
<v Speaker 1>I think. I mean one thing that's kind of hard

0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>to understand is like when you read ancient Greek literature,

0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:26.640
<v Speaker 1>you might notice that they seem to have a different

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.200
<v Speaker 1>idea of morality than we usually do, like for them

0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.160
<v Speaker 1>that they're concepts of morals often have more to do

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 1>with with things that are considered honorable versus things that

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:40.840
<v Speaker 1>are considered say, uh, for the good of others. Uh.

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:42.840
<v Speaker 1>And you know, it's almost what you were just reading

0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.480
<v Speaker 1>reminds me of the classical Greek theory of humor, which

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.040
<v Speaker 1>we talked about in our Plato sex Macina episode. So

0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.240
<v Speaker 1>that Plato and Aristotle basically said, this is hard to

0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 1>imagine because it sounds so so hateful, But you know,

0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.399
<v Speaker 1>these ancient Greek philosophers are like, things are funny because

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:01.800
<v Speaker 1>they make you realize you're superior to other people. Uh So.

0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:06.480
<v Speaker 1>Plato in his Philibus dialogue is discussing the nature of pleasure,

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.119
<v Speaker 1>and he says, you know, there are different kinds of pleasures.

0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:12.600
<v Speaker 1>He's talking about why pleasures of the mind are better

0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.240
<v Speaker 1>than pleasures of the flesh, of the of the body.

0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:18.800
<v Speaker 1>And he's talking about laughing at people, and he says,

0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:20.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the main things that's great about

0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:22.680
<v Speaker 1>laughing at people is that you can laugh at people

0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:26.160
<v Speaker 1>who don't recognize their own misfortune. So there are people

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:28.919
<v Speaker 1>who are stupid but they think they're smart, or there

0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:31.560
<v Speaker 1>are people who are ugly but they think they're handsome,

0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.760
<v Speaker 1>and that's really funny, right, Yeah, But in in in

0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:38.040
<v Speaker 1>this it gets more specifically into the use of violence.

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.640
<v Speaker 1>Um and Hubrews was taken very seriously in Athens, as

0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:44.760
<v Speaker 1>there was a law of hubris. In this context, I've

0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:47.480
<v Speaker 1>seen it define more specifically and in this kind of

0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:50.600
<v Speaker 1>this is basically what Aristotle said, But an even shorter

0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:53.879
<v Speaker 1>version would be the intentional use of violence to humiliate

0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:57.280
<v Speaker 1>or degrade again, kind of a sadism, things like I'm

0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.360
<v Speaker 1>better than you and I'll show you by hurting you.

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.000
<v Speaker 1>And and in Athens, unlike murder charges which could only

0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 1>be brought forth by the family of the victim, charges

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:09.760
<v Speaker 1>of hubrists, like charges of treason or in pity, could

0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 1>be leveled by anyone at anyone. So it's we're talking

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:17.000
<v Speaker 1>about shameful conduct that ultimately threatens the shame on or

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:20.600
<v Speaker 1>building blocks of society itself. You know, I do see

0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 1>a connection, even though that this is different than what

0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:25.560
<v Speaker 1>we usually think of as hubrist. I see what's going

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:29.840
<v Speaker 1>on here, like I see the conceptual link, the link

0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:33.440
<v Speaker 1>between pride, arrogance, over confidence on one hand, and sadism

0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:37.080
<v Speaker 1>on the other. I mean, it's sadism almost seems to

0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 1>kind of imply and assumed pride and arrogance and over confidence.

0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:45.520
<v Speaker 1>It assumes a world view without stating it that one is,

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.199
<v Speaker 1>you know, better, more deserving than other people, and that

0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:51.720
<v Speaker 1>their faiths are subordinate to your own. Yeah, that it is.

0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:53.639
<v Speaker 1>It is weird to think of this from like a

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:57.040
<v Speaker 1>modern standard, because you know, I can think of numerous

0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:01.640
<v Speaker 1>examples of individuals, especially like popular celebrity type individuals, where

0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:03.280
<v Speaker 1>you think of them and you think, oh, well, that

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>person is clearly guilty of hubrists, and yet by the

0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:10.200
<v Speaker 1>great definition, I don't know if they actually used violence

0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:13.440
<v Speaker 1>against someone. Like one of the examples, a political example

0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:16.760
<v Speaker 1>that was brought up was like if if one politician

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 1>struck another during a speech, like that's but I don't know.

0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:23.240
<v Speaker 1>In ancient Greece, maybe that was that was an easier

0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:24.960
<v Speaker 1>thing to occur in Certainly there are examples of things

0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:28.879
<v Speaker 1>like that occurring in American political history, but uh, I

0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:32.680
<v Speaker 1>mean not recently so, but well no, but I mean

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.320
<v Speaker 1>I think, yes, you're not coming to physical violence, but

0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:38.440
<v Speaker 1>I could say that that's an extension of the impulse

0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:41.320
<v Speaker 1>you see in just sort of like bullying and blatant

0:21:41.320 --> 0:21:45.000
<v Speaker 1>disrespect and all that, where you're you are assuming a

0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:48.600
<v Speaker 1>position of superiority that denies that you would even have

0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:52.359
<v Speaker 1>to to speak on another person's terms. Yeah, so I

0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:54.680
<v Speaker 1>think we see plenty of examples of things that are

0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:58.360
<v Speaker 1>certainly in the spirit of of Greek hubrists, but not

0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:02.800
<v Speaker 1>the definition of actual physical violence. They fall short of that,

0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:05.360
<v Speaker 1>but perhaps not by much. All Right, on that note,

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:07.199
<v Speaker 1>we're going to take our first break, but when we

0:22:07.280 --> 0:22:09.919
<v Speaker 1>come back, we will will get further into this question

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:12.400
<v Speaker 1>of over confidence, and we'll start we'll start looking at

0:22:12.400 --> 0:22:17.680
<v Speaker 1>it beyond mythology and history and more at our actual

0:22:17.960 --> 0:22:24.200
<v Speaker 1>daily lives, in our actual inner world. Thank thank Alright,

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:27.000
<v Speaker 1>we're back. Okay, So we all think we know what

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:29.840
<v Speaker 1>over confidences we know when we see it. It's a

0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:33.880
<v Speaker 1>common enough character flaw that there are millennia old strains

0:22:33.960 --> 0:22:37.720
<v Speaker 1>of drama and comedy that basically just exists to punish

0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:41.960
<v Speaker 1>it over and over again for our amusement and entertainment. Yeah,

0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:43.639
<v Speaker 1>and of course we always have to remember with tales

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:45.840
<v Speaker 1>like that, this is not just about the subject of

0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:47.679
<v Speaker 1>the tale, but it's about the consumer of the tale.

0:22:47.720 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, a lot of times we're we're taking in

0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:54.080
<v Speaker 1>these tales of hubrists not only to relish in the

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:58.720
<v Speaker 1>downfall of these various villains in our lives and in

0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 1>our histories and in our world, but also is is

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:08.240
<v Speaker 1>cautionary tales, you know, like again warnings not to ascend

0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:11.640
<v Speaker 1>too high towards the sun, that sort of thing. Right. Uh.

0:23:11.680 --> 0:23:14.960
<v Speaker 1>So we know overconfidence means, of course having too much confidence,

0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:16.639
<v Speaker 1>but you gotta go one level down from that to

0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 1>understand the idea, try to define confidence. And when you

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:22.520
<v Speaker 1>do that, I think you do run into problems because

0:23:22.560 --> 0:23:25.760
<v Speaker 1>you discover confidence can mean a number of sort of

0:23:25.800 --> 0:23:29.159
<v Speaker 1>different things that are related but separate. So I was

0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:32.040
<v Speaker 1>looking at a few just dictionary definitions to help get these,

0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:34.600
<v Speaker 1>uh in order, and I think the Miriam Webster ones

0:23:34.640 --> 0:23:37.359
<v Speaker 1>capture it pretty well. So one is a feeling or

0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 1>consciousness of one's powers or of reliance on one's circumstances,

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:44.439
<v Speaker 1>So applied to the self, that's basically the statement I

0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:47.880
<v Speaker 1>can do this, and that confidence could be well founded

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:50.719
<v Speaker 1>or not well founded. Um. The next one would be

0:23:51.080 --> 0:23:53.760
<v Speaker 1>faith or belief that one will act in a right,

0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:57.400
<v Speaker 1>proper or effective way. That one's a little more complicated,

0:23:57.480 --> 0:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>so that that's not just I can do it, but

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:03.560
<v Speaker 1>I will do the right thing. Like an example of

0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:05.040
<v Speaker 1>this that I run into every now and then its

0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:07.359
<v Speaker 1>discussions of what will happen if I win the lottery.

0:24:07.600 --> 0:24:10.240
<v Speaker 1>You will not be able to handle all that money

0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 1>coming into your life and you're not prepared for what

0:24:12.840 --> 0:24:15.479
<v Speaker 1>it's going to do to your your your social world.

0:24:15.960 --> 0:24:18.200
<v Speaker 1>But then you think, I don't know. I think I

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 1>can handle it, though I think I'm the exception. I

0:24:20.600 --> 0:24:22.720
<v Speaker 1>think I'd be able to put that money to good use,

0:24:22.720 --> 0:24:24.919
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think wealth will change me at all. Right,

0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:28.560
<v Speaker 1>You're like, I'll give it all to charity. Sure, Yeah.

0:24:28.560 --> 0:24:30.760
<v Speaker 1>And then there there, of course, is the third one,

0:24:30.800 --> 0:24:33.480
<v Speaker 1>which is the quality or state of being certain. And

0:24:33.520 --> 0:24:35.359
<v Speaker 1>this is sort of different from the others, but I

0:24:35.359 --> 0:24:40.960
<v Speaker 1>guess it's related. It's like trusting yourself to discern things correctly.

0:24:41.040 --> 0:24:43.399
<v Speaker 1>It's I know what's correct, I know what's right, my

0:24:43.520 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 1>beliefs are solid. And of course this division can present

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:50.080
<v Speaker 1>a problem for researchers. You have to study different types

0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:54.320
<v Speaker 1>of overconfidence differently to really understand the spectrum of ways

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:56.359
<v Speaker 1>that it affects human life. And we'll come back to

0:24:56.440 --> 0:24:58.760
<v Speaker 1>that with especially one of the studies that we look

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:01.200
<v Speaker 1>at in this pair of episodes, Because if we were

0:25:01.200 --> 0:25:04.199
<v Speaker 1>just to divide confidence up into these three categories, like

0:25:04.520 --> 0:25:07.560
<v Speaker 1>as above, you can easily have people all over the spectrum.

0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:10.960
<v Speaker 1>Someone could be completely overconfident in their ability to do

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:14.960
<v Speaker 1>something and then also be have a very reasonable expectation of,

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:16.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, whether or not they do the right thing.

0:25:16.800 --> 0:25:19.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, they might say, who, I don't know if

0:25:19.119 --> 0:25:21.919
<v Speaker 1>I can if I can actually make it across this

0:25:22.000 --> 0:25:25.600
<v Speaker 1>tight rope. But when I when I, when I fall off,

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:29.159
<v Speaker 1>I'm definitely going to soil my breeches, you know. And

0:25:29.200 --> 0:25:31.679
<v Speaker 1>I think there is ah there's evidence that there's a

0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:36.199
<v Speaker 1>pretty big difference in how confidence in your abilities and

0:25:36.240 --> 0:25:40.280
<v Speaker 1>performance manifests versus how confidence in your the correctness of

0:25:40.280 --> 0:25:44.240
<v Speaker 1>your beliefs manifests um. But if we zoom in on

0:25:44.320 --> 0:25:47.560
<v Speaker 1>specific types of overconfidence, we can find some of the

0:25:47.600 --> 0:25:51.240
<v Speaker 1>best supported effects in all of psychology really. And so

0:25:51.359 --> 0:25:54.160
<v Speaker 1>one very recent paper that we wanted to look at

0:25:54.520 --> 0:25:58.920
<v Speaker 1>was published just this year in Psychological Bulletin by Ethan Zell,

0:25:59.400 --> 0:26:03.800
<v Speaker 1>Jason E. Strickhauser, Constantine set Akidas, and Mark d Alika.

0:26:03.960 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 1>And it's called the Better than Average Effect in Comparative

0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:11.200
<v Speaker 1>Self Evaluation, A Comprehensive Review and meta analysis. Uh. And

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:15.560
<v Speaker 1>so this was a huge survey of existing published research

0:26:15.640 --> 0:26:19.080
<v Speaker 1>on something called the better than average effect, which is

0:26:19.200 --> 0:26:23.960
<v Speaker 1>the tendency for people to perceive their abilities, attributes, and

0:26:24.040 --> 0:26:29.840
<v Speaker 1>personality traits as superior compared to their average peer. So

0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:34.160
<v Speaker 1>what would that actually mean. Here's an example. Almost everybody

0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:37.200
<v Speaker 1>thinks that they are a much better than average driver.

0:26:38.320 --> 0:26:42.840
<v Speaker 1>Good drivers correctly think this, bad drivers incorrectly think this.

0:26:43.359 --> 0:26:46.679
<v Speaker 1>Few people actually think I am a bad driver, or

0:26:46.720 --> 0:26:49.879
<v Speaker 1>even I am an average driver. But of course, if

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:51.840
<v Speaker 1>you just go by the median, which is how this

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:54.159
<v Speaker 1>question is phrased in the studies that look at it,

0:26:54.640 --> 0:26:57.879
<v Speaker 1>half of drivers are by definition worse than the media

0:26:57.960 --> 0:27:01.360
<v Speaker 1>at driving skill, and yet nine do something percent think

0:27:01.400 --> 0:27:03.919
<v Speaker 1>they're above the media. Oh that's a great stat I

0:27:03.960 --> 0:27:06.680
<v Speaker 1>wish we'd had that to bust out in our October

0:27:06.720 --> 0:27:11.800
<v Speaker 1>episode on driving and the Psychology of driving, because I'm

0:27:11.680 --> 0:27:14.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm reminded of one of the facts that the researchers

0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:17.679
<v Speaker 1>of one paper pointed out, and that was that, you

0:27:17.720 --> 0:27:21.480
<v Speaker 1>know it's driving. Is this cognitively demanding task, and yet

0:27:21.840 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 1>most of us are able to acquire what you could

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:28.439
<v Speaker 1>consider mastery of vehicle. Yeah, uh yeah, that's interesting, Like

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:31.720
<v Speaker 1>it's something that is inherently hard, but we do it

0:27:31.880 --> 0:27:35.119
<v Speaker 1>enough that it becomes easy within the context of human life,

0:27:35.160 --> 0:27:37.240
<v Speaker 1>and then we we think that we are truly better

0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:39.679
<v Speaker 1>than most everyone else at it. It's kind of like

0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:43.919
<v Speaker 1>how playing video games is actually inherently hard as a task,

0:27:44.000 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 1>but just if you do it enough for recreation, it's

0:27:47.119 --> 0:27:50.159
<v Speaker 1>it's second nature. It's totally easy. Yeah, but it does

0:27:50.240 --> 0:27:51.960
<v Speaker 1>make me think about, like, say, the people who don't

0:27:52.040 --> 0:27:56.880
<v Speaker 1>use turn signals, are they approaching it from the standpoint

0:27:56.920 --> 0:27:58.800
<v Speaker 1>of I am such a great driver, I do not

0:27:59.000 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 1>need to use turn signals, because they very likely are.

0:28:02.960 --> 0:28:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Because this strikes me as like a true a true

0:28:05.760 --> 0:28:09.879
<v Speaker 1>act of humorists that demands nemesis come forth and and

0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:13.040
<v Speaker 1>smite them in the highway before me, And I guess

0:28:13.040 --> 0:28:17.119
<v Speaker 1>sometimes that's exactly what happens. But the don't be that Nemesis.

0:28:17.240 --> 0:28:19.600
<v Speaker 1>You are not the god known Nemesis. Your road rage

0:28:19.640 --> 0:28:21.719
<v Speaker 1>doesn't solve the problem. And I think that is one

0:28:21.760 --> 0:28:24.679
<v Speaker 1>of the key aspects of a belief, and something like

0:28:24.760 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 1>Nemesis is ultimately to to keep people from acting out

0:28:28.680 --> 0:28:31.560
<v Speaker 1>as Nemesis themselves, you know, the idea there must be

0:28:31.640 --> 0:28:35.919
<v Speaker 1>some sort of divine retribution for you know, um, you know,

0:28:36.600 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 1>the individual who who engages in this kind of classical

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:44.680
<v Speaker 1>hubrists like. Therefore, it's not for me to intervene unless

0:28:44.720 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna you know, actually accused them of such in

0:28:47.560 --> 0:28:50.280
<v Speaker 1>a legal sense right now. Of course, the driving thing

0:28:50.360 --> 0:28:52.920
<v Speaker 1>is just one example, but it's a great example, and

0:28:52.960 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 1>there are tons of things like this that The better

0:28:56.080 --> 0:28:59.240
<v Speaker 1>than average effect says that, you know, for traits, for

0:28:59.360 --> 0:29:03.720
<v Speaker 1>ability is for attributes that are perceived as positive. Almost

0:29:03.760 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 1>all of us tend to think we're better than average

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:09.960
<v Speaker 1>on whatever that metric is. Uh, And and of course

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:11.959
<v Speaker 1>that can't be the case. You know, half of us

0:29:12.000 --> 0:29:14.000
<v Speaker 1>are going to be below average. A lot of us

0:29:14.000 --> 0:29:17.080
<v Speaker 1>are probably gonna be clustered somewhere around average, given what

0:29:17.120 --> 0:29:19.880
<v Speaker 1>the skill is or what the trade is. And so

0:29:19.920 --> 0:29:21.920
<v Speaker 1>the question this study was looking at was, Okay, how

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:24.600
<v Speaker 1>strong is this effect? How robust is it? You know?

0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:28.440
<v Speaker 1>So this review includes quote a comprehensive meta analysis of

0:29:28.560 --> 0:29:32.200
<v Speaker 1>better than average studies, including data from a hundred and

0:29:32.200 --> 0:29:35.640
<v Speaker 1>twenty four published articles, two independent samples, in more than

0:29:35.720 --> 0:29:40.240
<v Speaker 1>ninety thousand participants, and what it found is that, unlike

0:29:40.320 --> 0:29:43.280
<v Speaker 1>some classic effects in psychology, which in recent years have

0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:48.120
<v Speaker 1>been undermined by failed replications and fragility revealed by meta analysis,

0:29:48.440 --> 0:29:50.640
<v Speaker 1>the basic version of the better than average effect is

0:29:50.640 --> 0:29:54.600
<v Speaker 1>found to be extremely solid. It is super robust across studies,

0:29:55.000 --> 0:29:58.480
<v Speaker 1>and there's little evidence of publication bias. So the better

0:29:58.520 --> 0:30:01.680
<v Speaker 1>than average effect is deaf only a real fact about

0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:04.720
<v Speaker 1>human brains. But that doesn't mean it always works the

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:07.640
<v Speaker 1>same for all people. Are all types of evaluations. There

0:30:07.640 --> 0:30:11.680
<v Speaker 1>are tons of interesting little complications revealed here uh and

0:30:11.760 --> 0:30:13.479
<v Speaker 1>discussed in the review, and I think we can come

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:15.400
<v Speaker 1>back to them in a bit. So a minute ago,

0:30:15.480 --> 0:30:19.720
<v Speaker 1>we were talking about how overconfidence has actually different manifestations

0:30:19.760 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 1>that are not the same, and you might need to

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:24.520
<v Speaker 1>study them separately. UH, and I came across a couple

0:30:24.560 --> 0:30:28.600
<v Speaker 1>of interesting papers, both of which had the Berkeley professor

0:30:28.680 --> 0:30:31.320
<v Speaker 1>Don A. Moore as an author. One from two thousand

0:30:31.360 --> 0:30:33.480
<v Speaker 1>and eight with co author Paul J. Heally called The

0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:37.800
<v Speaker 1>Trouble with Overconfidence published in Psychological Review, and one from

0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 1>ten with Derek Shots called The Three Faces of Overconfidence

0:30:42.640 --> 0:30:46.280
<v Speaker 1>published in Social and Personality Psychology Compass. Now, both of

0:30:46.320 --> 0:30:49.840
<v Speaker 1>these papers explore the idea that there are actually three

0:30:50.040 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 1>importantly different kinds of overconfidence which are sometimes lumped together

0:30:55.000 --> 0:30:59.719
<v Speaker 1>in in people talking about the psychological overconfidence bias, and

0:31:00.000 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 1>they're pointing out that they need to be treated independently,

0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:05.640
<v Speaker 1>studied independently whenever possible. And I think this is a

0:31:05.680 --> 0:31:09.640
<v Speaker 1>really helpful place to further categorize types of overconfidence for

0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:12.400
<v Speaker 1>the rest of our discussion. So are you ready for

0:31:12.440 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 1>the three types? Let's jump in. Okay, So the three

0:31:15.240 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 1>types they highlight our overestimation, over placement, and over precision. Now,

0:31:22.200 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 1>overestimation is thinking that you're better than you are, and specifically,

0:31:27.280 --> 0:31:30.520
<v Speaker 1>this is an overconfidence in your own qualities in an

0:31:30.520 --> 0:31:33.520
<v Speaker 1>objective sense, just out there and you know, floating in

0:31:33.560 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 1>the void or compared to some objective measure. So if

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:39.080
<v Speaker 1>you think you have five hundred dollars in the bank,

0:31:39.200 --> 0:31:42.960
<v Speaker 1>but you really have three hundred. That's overestimation. If you

0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:46.400
<v Speaker 1>think you're taller than you are. If you think that

0:31:46.480 --> 0:31:49.560
<v Speaker 1>you never spell words wrong, but in reality you actually

0:31:49.560 --> 0:31:52.120
<v Speaker 1>do spell words wrong all the time. If you think

0:31:52.160 --> 0:31:54.440
<v Speaker 1>you can run a mile in six minutes, but actually

0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:57.440
<v Speaker 1>it will take you fourteen minutes. These are all cases

0:31:57.480 --> 0:32:01.000
<v Speaker 1>of overestimation. These are the sort of things at other

0:32:01.080 --> 0:32:04.800
<v Speaker 1>people or life itself will will call you on. Yeah.

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:08.280
<v Speaker 1>Typically uh. And then this one's interesting because it it's

0:32:08.400 --> 0:32:12.120
<v Speaker 1>it kind of has runs a spectrum from just pure

0:32:12.200 --> 0:32:14.800
<v Speaker 1>self delusion, like you could if you were just think

0:32:15.040 --> 0:32:16.720
<v Speaker 1>I have a million dollars and you do not have

0:32:16.760 --> 0:32:18.800
<v Speaker 1>a million dollars. That's right. I mean most of the

0:32:18.800 --> 0:32:21.400
<v Speaker 1>time people don't overestimate to that extent, but they might

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:23.800
<v Speaker 1>overestimate how much money they've got in the bank to

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:26.600
<v Speaker 1>a small extent, right, or you know, or or I'm

0:32:26.600 --> 0:32:31.640
<v Speaker 1>certainly thinking of smaller examples that that fit into my life,

0:32:31.680 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 1>like for instance, me overestimating, uh, the amount of time

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:37.520
<v Speaker 1>I have before I need to pick my son up

0:32:37.520 --> 0:32:41.120
<v Speaker 1>from school, or overestimating the amount of free time I'll

0:32:41.160 --> 0:32:43.600
<v Speaker 1>have to say, you know, watch a terrible B movie

0:32:43.680 --> 0:32:46.880
<v Speaker 1>during a work week. This is very perceptive of you, Robert,

0:32:46.880 --> 0:32:49.000
<v Speaker 1>because actually we'll come back to this later on, I

0:32:49.000 --> 0:32:52.280
<v Speaker 1>think probably in the second episode. That exact thing you mentioned.

0:32:52.360 --> 0:32:56.000
<v Speaker 1>The planning fallacy is one of the most common and

0:32:56.040 --> 0:33:01.120
<v Speaker 1>most robustly demonstrated types of overestimation. People regularly think that

0:33:01.200 --> 0:33:04.080
<v Speaker 1>they will have they will be able to accomplish more

0:33:04.240 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 1>in less time than they actually can. Yeah. Another example

0:33:08.560 --> 0:33:12.160
<v Speaker 1>would be, you know, when we pack books to bring on, say, vacations,

0:33:12.600 --> 0:33:15.880
<v Speaker 1>oftentimes you can be a little overconfident in either are

0:33:16.080 --> 0:33:18.680
<v Speaker 1>are are reading speed or the amount of time will

0:33:18.680 --> 0:33:21.440
<v Speaker 1>have to to to spend with those books. I know

0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:24.240
<v Speaker 1>that feeling. Yeah, when I'm when I'm traveling, I'm going

0:33:24.280 --> 0:33:26.680
<v Speaker 1>on an airplane or something, I bring like four books

0:33:26.720 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 1>with me and then I end up reading like three

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:31.800
<v Speaker 1>pages of one of them. All Right, So that's one

0:33:31.840 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 1>that we can I think we can all relate to

0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:36.520
<v Speaker 1>for sure. Okay, now the next one that's overestimation. The

0:33:36.560 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 1>next one is called overplacement, and this is similar but

0:33:40.680 --> 0:33:44.600
<v Speaker 1>a little bit different. Overplacement is the exaggerated belief that

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:48.840
<v Speaker 1>you are better than others. So it's similar to overestimation,

0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:53.200
<v Speaker 1>accept it involves judging yourself relative to other people instead

0:33:53.240 --> 0:33:55.520
<v Speaker 1>of just judging yourself, kind of floating in the void

0:33:55.600 --> 0:33:59.120
<v Speaker 1>or relative to some objective measure. So this would be like,

0:34:00.040 --> 0:34:03.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, Jeff thinks, okay, if we rated all the

0:34:03.120 --> 0:34:06.080
<v Speaker 1>guys in the office in in order of handsomeness, I

0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:08.360
<v Speaker 1>would be in first place, but in fact, if you

0:34:08.400 --> 0:34:11.080
<v Speaker 1>did that, he would be in sixth place. Uh, he's

0:34:11.120 --> 0:34:13.800
<v Speaker 1>rating himself relative to the other people in the office.

0:34:14.400 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 1>Or Jeff thinks he is smarter than all of his siblings,

0:34:17.200 --> 0:34:20.000
<v Speaker 1>but actually he is not. Or this is a very

0:34:20.040 --> 0:34:23.239
<v Speaker 1>common one. I think Jeff thinks he works harder than

0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:25.600
<v Speaker 1>other people in the country he lives in, but in

0:34:25.680 --> 0:34:28.839
<v Speaker 1>reality he works fewer than the average number of hours.

0:34:28.880 --> 0:34:32.399
<v Speaker 1>So to use a direct comparison to differentiate between the two,

0:34:32.480 --> 0:34:35.800
<v Speaker 1>overestimation would be thinking you're five nine when you're actually

0:34:35.880 --> 0:34:39.640
<v Speaker 1>five eight. Overplacement would be thinking you're taller than Doug,

0:34:39.719 --> 0:34:43.719
<v Speaker 1>when Doug is actually taller than you. So overplacement really

0:34:43.840 --> 0:34:48.640
<v Speaker 1>entails a broad spectrum of of potentially subjective measures. You

0:34:48.680 --> 0:34:51.080
<v Speaker 1>know who, because who's deciding who is the most handsome

0:34:51.080 --> 0:34:56.600
<v Speaker 1>at the office? Like what is the judging body for this? Subjectivity?

0:34:56.680 --> 0:34:58.920
<v Speaker 1>I think plays a very important role in what types

0:34:59.040 --> 0:35:02.440
<v Speaker 1>of over confidence were most susceptible to right, And we

0:35:02.680 --> 0:35:04.799
<v Speaker 1>can talk more about that as we go on. But yeah,

0:35:04.840 --> 0:35:06.919
<v Speaker 1>I think you're exactly right about that. Though you can

0:35:07.160 --> 0:35:10.560
<v Speaker 1>frame it in terms of objective measures like imagining who

0:35:10.680 --> 0:35:13.640
<v Speaker 1>your coworkers would rank or something like that, like you

0:35:13.680 --> 0:35:15.839
<v Speaker 1>could actually do it and you could guess about how

0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:19.239
<v Speaker 1>it would go. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I can. I can

0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:20.840
<v Speaker 1>see that. But it's still it's you know, you're getting

0:35:20.840 --> 0:35:23.520
<v Speaker 1>into questions of like, what are the criteria you know,

0:35:23.600 --> 0:35:26.600
<v Speaker 1>for for judging Jeff's appearance or Jeff's intelligence. That's one too,

0:35:26.680 --> 0:35:29.440
<v Speaker 1>even though we have we have various uh, you know,

0:35:29.560 --> 0:35:32.680
<v Speaker 1>tests and ways of measuring these things, but they're not

0:35:32.719 --> 0:35:35.239
<v Speaker 1>without controversy. They're not without some disagreement. And then we

0:35:35.280 --> 0:35:38.840
<v Speaker 1>get into different types of intelligence, you know. Um, and

0:35:39.040 --> 0:35:40.960
<v Speaker 1>as far as work goes, is it possible that Jeff

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:44.680
<v Speaker 1>works incredibly hard during an average number of hours? You know?

0:35:44.800 --> 0:35:48.160
<v Speaker 1>Or should we perhaps shame Jeff's workplace for encouraging an

0:35:48.200 --> 0:35:51.720
<v Speaker 1>oppressive work atmosphere where it's just about how many extra

0:35:51.800 --> 0:35:55.000
<v Speaker 1>hours you pour into the day and how attractive you are? Yeah,

0:35:55.120 --> 0:36:00.640
<v Speaker 1>and yeah, and uh, it's so you know, overplacement definitions

0:36:00.680 --> 0:36:04.600
<v Speaker 1>of overconfidence really can get into this ikey territory. I

0:36:04.640 --> 0:36:09.239
<v Speaker 1>feel like classism, racism, sexism, uh meritocracy and and other

0:36:09.280 --> 0:36:12.600
<v Speaker 1>systems that revolve around putting you in your place and

0:36:12.640 --> 0:36:14.680
<v Speaker 1>telling you exactly what you can be and what you

0:36:14.719 --> 0:36:17.840
<v Speaker 1>can accomplish. And it can it can actually itself be

0:36:17.880 --> 0:36:20.480
<v Speaker 1>a form of of sort of the very form of

0:36:20.520 --> 0:36:24.440
<v Speaker 1>hubrists that Nemesis would have punished. Yes, I think exactly right. Yeah,

0:36:24.600 --> 0:36:27.240
<v Speaker 1>that even that form of hubrists we were talking about earlier.

0:36:27.280 --> 0:36:30.200
<v Speaker 1>That's like the you know, the cruelty to other people

0:36:30.239 --> 0:36:34.319
<v Speaker 1>to show your superiority to them, that clearly assumes an

0:36:34.320 --> 0:36:38.200
<v Speaker 1>overplacement thing like you, you are just naturally assuming that

0:36:38.239 --> 0:36:41.399
<v Speaker 1>you are better and more worthy, more deserving of high

0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:44.680
<v Speaker 1>status and superiority than other people are. It's it's a

0:36:44.719 --> 0:36:47.880
<v Speaker 1>relative judgment between you and some other you know, the

0:36:47.960 --> 0:36:51.520
<v Speaker 1>victim of whatever cruelty you're showing. But again, the evidence

0:36:51.640 --> 0:36:53.680
<v Speaker 1>is that we do a lot of this kind of thing,

0:36:53.719 --> 0:36:56.359
<v Speaker 1>and lots of it are are obviously not evil and

0:36:56.400 --> 0:36:59.040
<v Speaker 1>cruel like that. A lot of it just might be like, oh, yeah,

0:36:59.040 --> 0:37:01.759
<v Speaker 1>I think I probably harder than than most of the

0:37:01.800 --> 0:37:05.360
<v Speaker 1>people at my workplace, But actually you don't Yeah, I

0:37:05.680 --> 0:37:07.920
<v Speaker 1>don't know, I just see I feel like there's a

0:37:07.920 --> 0:37:11.600
<v Speaker 1>tremendous potential for cruelty and this, of course, and and

0:37:11.640 --> 0:37:14.279
<v Speaker 1>to the to the extent that like even even more

0:37:14.320 --> 0:37:17.799
<v Speaker 1>moderate versions of it are kind of the you know,

0:37:17.840 --> 0:37:21.000
<v Speaker 1>at the tip of the talent on the overall beast.

0:37:21.080 --> 0:37:23.960
<v Speaker 1>You know. Well, I mean it's definitely the case with

0:37:23.960 --> 0:37:26.360
<v Speaker 1>with the driving example. You know, so the better than

0:37:26.440 --> 0:37:29.200
<v Speaker 1>average effect that I mentioned earlier that there's great, great

0:37:29.239 --> 0:37:32.000
<v Speaker 1>evidence for this would be an example of overplacement, right,

0:37:32.040 --> 0:37:36.080
<v Speaker 1>because you're comparing yourself to other people in general. You're saying, like, no,

0:37:36.200 --> 0:37:39.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm a better than average driver, but nineties something percent

0:37:39.320 --> 0:37:41.759
<v Speaker 1>of drivers think that. Yeah. Okay, well we can we

0:37:41.800 --> 0:37:43.759
<v Speaker 1>can come back to a discussion on this. But let's

0:37:43.760 --> 0:37:46.239
<v Speaker 1>get to the third one. Okay, the third one is

0:37:46.280 --> 0:37:48.600
<v Speaker 1>a little different than the other two. The third one

0:37:48.719 --> 0:37:52.040
<v Speaker 1>is over precision. And this is one of the definitions

0:37:52.080 --> 0:37:54.320
<v Speaker 1>that we talked about, you know, from the More Everyday

0:37:54.320 --> 0:37:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Dictionary understanding. Over precision is being too sure that you

0:37:58.000 --> 0:38:00.319
<v Speaker 1>know the truth. This is what we might also call

0:38:00.400 --> 0:38:04.520
<v Speaker 1>epistemic over confidence. It's being overly certain that your beliefs

0:38:04.600 --> 0:38:07.920
<v Speaker 1>are correct. So, uh, to go back to Jeff, Jeff

0:38:08.000 --> 0:38:11.000
<v Speaker 1>is a hundred percent sure that Vincent Price was in

0:38:11.080 --> 0:38:14.720
<v Speaker 1>Transformers Age of Extinction, Like, definitely, he was the voice

0:38:14.719 --> 0:38:16.960
<v Speaker 1>of one of the robots. He wasn't. But Jeff will

0:38:17.040 --> 0:38:19.040
<v Speaker 1>argue with you about this. He's like, no, I'm sure

0:38:19.040 --> 0:38:21.840
<v Speaker 1>I've looked it up before he was in there. I'm positive.

0:38:22.239 --> 0:38:24.719
<v Speaker 1>Or you ever done a trivia night, You've been on

0:38:24.760 --> 0:38:27.759
<v Speaker 1>the team with somebody like Jeff who's very confident about

0:38:27.760 --> 0:38:30.399
<v Speaker 1>all of his answers. You know, he's positive, write it down.

0:38:30.520 --> 0:38:33.520
<v Speaker 1>He keeps getting stuff wrong. I don't go to a

0:38:33.520 --> 0:38:35.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of trivia nights, but but I can imagine it.

0:38:36.040 --> 0:38:39.600
<v Speaker 1>I used to do trivia night. It's so it's it's

0:38:39.640 --> 0:38:42.040
<v Speaker 1>horrible to have somebody like that on your team who's

0:38:42.080 --> 0:38:45.600
<v Speaker 1>consistently that way. But I also recall the feeling of

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:48.640
<v Speaker 1>being like that on an individual question and then getting

0:38:48.640 --> 0:38:51.239
<v Speaker 1>it wrong, and like it hurts worse than anything. It's

0:38:51.239 --> 0:38:54.000
<v Speaker 1>the most embarrassing thing ever. Oh yeah, I guess I

0:38:54.040 --> 0:38:56.880
<v Speaker 1>do kind of remember some of that. I don't know.

0:38:56.920 --> 0:39:00.400
<v Speaker 1>I also value Jeff for just pushing the kind reversation

0:39:00.440 --> 0:39:02.799
<v Speaker 1>along and let's go, let's go ahead and select something

0:39:02.880 --> 0:39:05.000
<v Speaker 1>and move on. So we can we can be done

0:39:05.000 --> 0:39:07.000
<v Speaker 1>with this question, right if you don't care about the

0:39:07.000 --> 0:39:09.800
<v Speaker 1>trivia part. Yeah, well, I mean it's like the trivia

0:39:09.880 --> 0:39:12.359
<v Speaker 1>part is just a reason to be there in a bar, right,

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:14.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean depends on what the prize money is. The

0:39:14.400 --> 0:39:20.600
<v Speaker 1>prize money is generally like what you know. Yeah, Now,

0:39:20.600 --> 0:39:24.200
<v Speaker 1>of course we know that the over precision is hugely

0:39:24.280 --> 0:39:27.640
<v Speaker 1>relevant in in real world context and you know, in

0:39:27.960 --> 0:39:31.040
<v Speaker 1>all kinds of everyday stuff, conversations you have with your friends,

0:39:31.120 --> 0:39:34.160
<v Speaker 1>all the way up to business in politics. Yeah, yeah,

0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:37.240
<v Speaker 1>I was this is interesting, especially on the political um

0:39:37.480 --> 0:39:40.160
<v Speaker 1>uh question. I was looking at a two thousand eighteen

0:39:40.239 --> 0:39:43.520
<v Speaker 1>University of Notre Dame study on over confidence, and it

0:39:43.600 --> 0:39:47.239
<v Speaker 1>pointed out that in order to avoid the social punishment

0:39:47.280 --> 0:39:51.120
<v Speaker 1>of overconfidence, you know, essentially being being called on on

0:39:51.360 --> 0:39:55.920
<v Speaker 1>your your false uh you know, understanding of transformer movies

0:39:56.120 --> 0:39:58.480
<v Speaker 1>or you know, the future of the economy, whatever it

0:39:58.480 --> 0:40:01.319
<v Speaker 1>happens to be U. The authors argue that it helps

0:40:01.360 --> 0:40:06.160
<v Speaker 1>to engage in plausible deniability. So examples include claims that

0:40:06.239 --> 0:40:08.719
<v Speaker 1>cannot be proven wrong in the moment, though they may

0:40:08.800 --> 0:40:13.680
<v Speaker 1>be proven wrong later, or more importantly, using terminology that

0:40:13.840 --> 0:40:17.400
<v Speaker 1>is not subject to close scrutiny. So saying a particular

0:40:17.400 --> 0:40:20.080
<v Speaker 1>war will be a cake walks one example they bring

0:40:20.160 --> 0:40:22.520
<v Speaker 1>up because ultimately, like what's a cake walk? You know

0:40:22.560 --> 0:40:24.640
<v Speaker 1>you can you could make the argument that, Okay, one

0:40:24.680 --> 0:40:27.719
<v Speaker 1>person died, that's not a cake walk. One life is important,

0:40:27.960 --> 0:40:29.440
<v Speaker 1>or if you could bump that, you could you know,

0:40:29.600 --> 0:40:33.359
<v Speaker 1>it's totally in the either the holder. Another example would

0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:35.839
<v Speaker 1>be saying that something will be made great. What does

0:40:35.840 --> 0:40:38.080
<v Speaker 1>it mean to make it great? Like what is what

0:40:38.200 --> 0:40:40.360
<v Speaker 1>is great? Putt put a number value on great? But

0:40:40.400 --> 0:40:42.160
<v Speaker 1>you don't want to put a number value on it

0:40:42.200 --> 0:40:44.680
<v Speaker 1>because then you could be shown to be wrong. So like,

0:40:44.719 --> 0:40:48.040
<v Speaker 1>the more vague you are with your predictions, the harder

0:40:48.040 --> 0:40:50.080
<v Speaker 1>it is for somebody to later come along and show

0:40:50.120 --> 0:40:52.239
<v Speaker 1>that you were wrong. Right. And this is why the

0:40:53.080 --> 0:40:55.319
<v Speaker 1>I think the the trivia example is a is a

0:40:55.360 --> 0:40:58.080
<v Speaker 1>perfect example to to bring out because it is a

0:40:58.200 --> 0:41:02.600
<v Speaker 1>semi artificial situation in which you're really putting your knowledge

0:41:02.600 --> 0:41:05.000
<v Speaker 1>on the line and just you know, and and and

0:41:05.160 --> 0:41:07.760
<v Speaker 1>stating yes, this is what I believe, this is the fact,

0:41:08.080 --> 0:41:11.799
<v Speaker 1>and then you're you're gonna be immediately uh called on

0:41:11.880 --> 0:41:13.920
<v Speaker 1>it if you're wrong. Well, I think you know one

0:41:13.920 --> 0:41:16.239
<v Speaker 1>great example we're talking about politics. You talked about like

0:41:16.360 --> 0:41:18.880
<v Speaker 1>making an economy better in the future, Like you know,

0:41:18.960 --> 0:41:21.200
<v Speaker 1>politicians would always claim to be able to do, and

0:41:21.239 --> 0:41:23.880
<v Speaker 1>they've got different ways that they claim that will happen.

0:41:24.080 --> 0:41:26.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think what people just have to admit

0:41:26.280 --> 0:41:29.160
<v Speaker 1>in reality. So there's a huge amount of uncertainty in

0:41:29.160 --> 0:41:32.760
<v Speaker 1>in economics, in political economics, like you can't actually predict

0:41:33.000 --> 0:41:35.120
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen in the future economy. You can

0:41:35.160 --> 0:41:39.880
<v Speaker 1>make some very broad, vague generalizations, but you know, you're

0:41:39.920 --> 0:41:42.080
<v Speaker 1>not gonna know when the recession is going to happen.

0:41:42.120 --> 0:41:45.080
<v Speaker 1>You're not gonna know exactly what effect the new tax

0:41:45.160 --> 0:41:47.480
<v Speaker 1>or budget bill is going to have. You can generalize,

0:41:47.520 --> 0:41:48.960
<v Speaker 1>but you know it's hard to know for sure. There's

0:41:49.000 --> 0:41:51.480
<v Speaker 1>tons of uncertainty, right, But that's all. But at the

0:41:51.520 --> 0:41:55.160
<v Speaker 1>same time, it's a horrible campaign slogan, right, Yeah, we'll

0:41:55.200 --> 0:41:59.080
<v Speaker 1>do our best, but you know you can't be Yeah. Yeah,

0:41:59.120 --> 0:42:02.040
<v Speaker 1>so people are going to tenue to gravitate towards these statements,

0:42:02.120 --> 0:42:07.839
<v Speaker 1>especially these vague statements that protect the liar in question. Yeah.

0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:10.760
<v Speaker 1>So I mentioned these two papers that both had Donna

0:42:10.880 --> 0:42:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Moore is one of the authors, and they both of

0:42:13.600 --> 0:42:18.440
<v Speaker 1>them looked at what percentage of the existing papers in

0:42:18.480 --> 0:42:22.520
<v Speaker 1>the scientific literature on over confidence. We're looking at each

0:42:22.600 --> 0:42:25.160
<v Speaker 1>type of over confidence. And so the two thousand and

0:42:25.160 --> 0:42:28.040
<v Speaker 1>eight study found that forty six percent of papers were

0:42:28.040 --> 0:42:32.359
<v Speaker 1>looking at overestimation, uh, thirty two percent were overplacement, and

0:42:32.480 --> 0:42:36.120
<v Speaker 1>twenty two percent were over precision. And then they looked

0:42:36.120 --> 0:42:38.600
<v Speaker 1>at it again on papers that had come out since

0:42:38.760 --> 0:42:42.680
<v Speaker 1>that one in the paper, and they found that sixty

0:42:42.719 --> 0:42:47.440
<v Speaker 1>percent were overestimation overplacement and nineteen percent on over precision.

0:42:47.840 --> 0:42:49.560
<v Speaker 1>One of the main ones we're gonna keep looking at

0:42:49.600 --> 0:42:52.080
<v Speaker 1>in this episode series is about overplacement. It's about the

0:42:52.120 --> 0:42:54.480
<v Speaker 1>better and better than average effect. But I'm struck by

0:42:54.480 --> 0:42:57.040
<v Speaker 1>the fact that in both of these analyzes, the least

0:42:57.080 --> 0:42:59.960
<v Speaker 1>attention is going to over precision, which seems like perhaps

0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:04.000
<v Speaker 1>the most important of these effects to study. Yeah, I mean,

0:43:04.040 --> 0:43:07.120
<v Speaker 1>maybe it's one where we you know, you know certainly

0:43:07.160 --> 0:43:09.239
<v Speaker 1>that you know the study I mentioned is not is

0:43:09.280 --> 0:43:13.400
<v Speaker 1>not really presenting something that is not already intrinsically understood,

0:43:13.719 --> 0:43:18.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, lying and inflating estimation, basically playing the social game.

0:43:18.960 --> 0:43:21.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's what humans do. So maybe we're just

0:43:21.480 --> 0:43:26.440
<v Speaker 1>we have a built in a tendency to safeguard ourselves again,

0:43:26.440 --> 0:43:31.200
<v Speaker 1>except in semi artificial situations like tests and trivia nights.

0:43:31.560 --> 0:43:33.839
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's a big problem. This is, of course

0:43:33.840 --> 0:43:36.560
<v Speaker 1>a problem in all kinds of arenas of psychology research,

0:43:36.600 --> 0:43:40.040
<v Speaker 1>but it's definitely a big problem in studying over confidence because,

0:43:40.040 --> 0:43:42.080
<v Speaker 1>as several of the authors have been reading have pointed out,

0:43:42.080 --> 0:43:46.920
<v Speaker 1>it can be really hard to recreate the types of

0:43:47.040 --> 0:43:50.880
<v Speaker 1>overconfidence projection scenarios that occur in the real world in

0:43:50.920 --> 0:43:53.279
<v Speaker 1>the lab. All right, on that note, we're gonna take

0:43:53.320 --> 0:43:59.960
<v Speaker 1>one more break, but we'll be right back. Alright, we're back, Okay.

0:44:00.000 --> 0:44:02.319
<v Speaker 1>So I wanted to go back to that paper that

0:44:02.400 --> 0:44:04.359
<v Speaker 1>I mentioned earlier in the episode, the one that just

0:44:04.400 --> 0:44:08.080
<v Speaker 1>came out this year in Psychological Bulletin, the the comprehensive

0:44:08.120 --> 0:44:11.360
<v Speaker 1>review and meta analysis of the existing research on the

0:44:11.440 --> 0:44:15.240
<v Speaker 1>better than average effect, the thing where people just tend

0:44:15.280 --> 0:44:17.799
<v Speaker 1>to think that, you know, they evaluate themselves as better

0:44:17.880 --> 0:44:21.080
<v Speaker 1>than average on all different kinds of qualities. So the

0:44:21.120 --> 0:44:24.440
<v Speaker 1>researchers themselves in this paper from and again that was

0:44:24.560 --> 0:44:28.439
<v Speaker 1>zel at all. Uh. They define it thus, Lee, They say,

0:44:28.640 --> 0:44:31.640
<v Speaker 1>b t a E is the proclivity to rate one's

0:44:31.680 --> 0:44:36.399
<v Speaker 1>current abilities attributes or personality traits more favorably than those

0:44:36.480 --> 0:44:39.560
<v Speaker 1>of the average peer. Now, there's a ton of stuff

0:44:39.600 --> 0:44:41.840
<v Speaker 1>in this paper, but I wanted to talk just briefly

0:44:41.880 --> 0:44:44.120
<v Speaker 1>about a few of its major findings. Of Course, as

0:44:44.120 --> 0:44:49.040
<v Speaker 1>we mentioned earlier, the paper found robust, highly replicable evidence

0:44:49.120 --> 0:44:51.920
<v Speaker 1>for the better than average effects. They did find different

0:44:51.920 --> 0:44:56.520
<v Speaker 1>effect sizes given different scenarios, but generally the effect is there.

0:44:56.600 --> 0:44:58.879
<v Speaker 1>It is really how our brains tend to work most

0:44:58.880 --> 0:45:01.480
<v Speaker 1>of the time. So one thing that I thought was

0:45:01.640 --> 0:45:04.120
<v Speaker 1>very interesting, and I think this ties into some of

0:45:04.160 --> 0:45:08.239
<v Speaker 1>the vagueness that you were just talking about, Robert, abilities

0:45:08.400 --> 0:45:12.440
<v Speaker 1>versus traits. The researchers here found that the better than

0:45:12.480 --> 0:45:17.360
<v Speaker 1>average effect is significantly stronger for personality traits than it

0:45:17.480 --> 0:45:21.200
<v Speaker 1>is for abilities. So, for example, people on average are

0:45:21.239 --> 0:45:25.560
<v Speaker 1>more likely to overplace themselves for semi fixed personal traits

0:45:25.640 --> 0:45:30.920
<v Speaker 1>like intelligence, honesty, or attractiveness, or sense of humor than

0:45:30.960 --> 0:45:35.319
<v Speaker 1>they are to overplace themselves on specific abilities like how

0:45:35.360 --> 0:45:37.520
<v Speaker 1>well will I do on this math test? You know,

0:45:37.760 --> 0:45:40.120
<v Speaker 1>though they show the better than average effect for both.

0:45:40.239 --> 0:45:43.719
<v Speaker 1>The effect is stronger for traits than it is for abilities.

0:45:43.960 --> 0:45:48.000
<v Speaker 1>Does that make sense? Yes? Yeah, and again yeah again.

0:45:48.000 --> 0:45:50.960
<v Speaker 1>It comes back to something that is easily proven, easily

0:45:50.960 --> 0:45:52.680
<v Speaker 1>put into the put to the test, like say your

0:45:52.719 --> 0:45:56.920
<v Speaker 1>ability shooting what free throws in basketball? Uh, you know,

0:45:57.080 --> 0:46:00.120
<v Speaker 1>versus something that is far more subjective. Yeah, And the

0:46:00.120 --> 0:46:03.080
<v Speaker 1>authors they agree they think this is quote likely because

0:46:03.160 --> 0:46:07.719
<v Speaker 1>personality traits are more abstract and less subject to external

0:46:07.840 --> 0:46:11.399
<v Speaker 1>verification than abilities. And I think that's not just like

0:46:11.480 --> 0:46:14.359
<v Speaker 1>in the moment you're making the prediction about yourself, you know,

0:46:14.680 --> 0:46:18.080
<v Speaker 1>not just because you fear embarrassment. I think your estimation

0:46:18.160 --> 0:46:22.480
<v Speaker 1>of your own abilities is probably generally more truly accurate

0:46:22.880 --> 0:46:25.600
<v Speaker 1>because you have more chances in your life to have

0:46:25.800 --> 0:46:30.360
<v Speaker 1>your your self impressions adjusted by meeting obstacles and you know,

0:46:30.440 --> 0:46:34.680
<v Speaker 1>being regulated by them. You actually very rarely run into

0:46:34.680 --> 0:46:36.960
<v Speaker 1>scenarios in your life where somebody can say you're not

0:46:37.040 --> 0:46:39.000
<v Speaker 1>as smart as you think you are, or if they

0:46:39.040 --> 0:46:41.319
<v Speaker 1>can say that you know you just like it's easy

0:46:41.400 --> 0:46:43.680
<v Speaker 1>to dismiss. Yeah, I guess I get the sense that

0:46:43.880 --> 0:46:46.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, certainly as you as you age, there's more

0:46:46.040 --> 0:46:50.080
<v Speaker 1>of an erosion of those those tendencies as opposed to

0:46:50.160 --> 0:46:53.600
<v Speaker 1>just you know, you know, you know, a sharp impact

0:46:53.640 --> 0:46:55.880
<v Speaker 1>on them. Well, that's another funny thing there is a

0:46:56.000 --> 0:46:58.880
<v Speaker 1>role of age in this. The meta analysis revealed that

0:46:58.960 --> 0:47:03.279
<v Speaker 1>the better than average fact was negatively correlated across lifespan.

0:47:03.440 --> 0:47:06.920
<v Speaker 1>So on average, the younger you are, the more likely

0:47:06.960 --> 0:47:10.160
<v Speaker 1>you are to overplace yourself relative to pears. Younger people

0:47:11.120 --> 0:47:13.880
<v Speaker 1>show more better than average effect than older people. Just

0:47:14.120 --> 0:47:16.880
<v Speaker 1>like Aristotle told us again, he pointed out that the

0:47:16.960 --> 0:47:19.600
<v Speaker 1>young and the rich are the ones most likely to

0:47:19.600 --> 0:47:22.880
<v Speaker 1>suffer from hubris. That's funny. I wonder what exactly explains that.

0:47:22.960 --> 0:47:26.040
<v Speaker 1>Could it be that throughout life you're literally just getting

0:47:26.040 --> 0:47:29.680
<v Speaker 1>more information, like you're learning more about your own limitations,

0:47:29.719 --> 0:47:33.440
<v Speaker 1>and that tempers your over overplacement about your own abilities.

0:47:33.560 --> 0:47:35.719
<v Speaker 1>Could be I mean, I mean again, we're kind of

0:47:35.760 --> 0:47:39.640
<v Speaker 1>getting into two tropes here that to varying degrees, uh,

0:47:39.760 --> 0:47:43.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, can be applied to to actual real life individuals.

0:47:43.040 --> 0:47:46.040
<v Speaker 1>But there is that idea of the of of the

0:47:46.040 --> 0:47:49.120
<v Speaker 1>the the prideful, rich individual as being kind of like

0:47:49.160 --> 0:47:53.200
<v Speaker 1>a man baby that that has never never had to

0:47:53.239 --> 0:47:55.759
<v Speaker 1>really be proven wrong, that has just been surrounded by

0:47:55.840 --> 0:47:58.640
<v Speaker 1>yes men for example, that sort of thing. Yeah, but

0:47:58.760 --> 0:48:00.480
<v Speaker 1>I I also do want to it. I mean, we

0:48:00.520 --> 0:48:03.320
<v Speaker 1>don't really know. It's possible that it doesn't have anything

0:48:03.360 --> 0:48:05.440
<v Speaker 1>to do with getting extra information. It could just be

0:48:05.520 --> 0:48:08.279
<v Speaker 1>psychological facts about the young versus the old. Well, I

0:48:08.320 --> 0:48:10.880
<v Speaker 1>mean it could. It could tie into just the basic

0:48:11.480 --> 0:48:14.959
<v Speaker 1>the difference different psychology of of a young person who

0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:18.239
<v Speaker 1>is who is like an arrow leaving the bow, you know,

0:48:18.360 --> 0:48:20.640
<v Speaker 1>Like the whole idea is that, Yeah, when you're young,

0:48:20.680 --> 0:48:22.800
<v Speaker 1>you're bold, you want to break away from your family

0:48:22.920 --> 0:48:26.800
<v Speaker 1>because that's ultimately how you're going. You're you're just obeying

0:48:26.800 --> 0:48:29.640
<v Speaker 1>the genetic mission of the organism. That's true. It could

0:48:29.760 --> 0:48:32.560
<v Speaker 1>It could be that there are stronger pressures in favor

0:48:32.600 --> 0:48:36.160
<v Speaker 1>of inflated confidence in a younger brain. Here is another

0:48:36.200 --> 0:48:40.719
<v Speaker 1>interesting one, negative better than average effect versus positive better

0:48:40.760 --> 0:48:44.400
<v Speaker 1>than average effect the author's right quote. When examining thirty

0:48:44.400 --> 0:48:47.920
<v Speaker 1>six matched comparisons in which other variables were held constant,

0:48:47.920 --> 0:48:51.319
<v Speaker 1>the better than average effect was larger for positive dimensions

0:48:51.400 --> 0:48:55.160
<v Speaker 1>the negative dimensions, which suggests that the motive to self

0:48:55.400 --> 0:48:59.800
<v Speaker 1>enhance or exaggerate one's positive qualities may be more pronounced

0:48:59.800 --> 0:49:04.640
<v Speaker 1>than a motive to self protect or minimize one's negative qualities. Okay,

0:49:04.680 --> 0:49:06.960
<v Speaker 1>so if I give you a chance to rate yourself

0:49:07.239 --> 0:49:09.319
<v Speaker 1>compared to others, I say, you know, how would you

0:49:09.400 --> 0:49:13.560
<v Speaker 1>rate yourself in terms of your honesty? Versus I say,

0:49:13.600 --> 0:49:17.359
<v Speaker 1>how would you rate yourself in terms of deceptiveness? That's

0:49:17.400 --> 0:49:19.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of asking the same question. It seems the better

0:49:19.680 --> 0:49:22.520
<v Speaker 1>than average effect manifests in both like that you're more

0:49:22.560 --> 0:49:27.680
<v Speaker 1>likely to overestimate your honesty underestimate your deceptive nous. But

0:49:27.760 --> 0:49:31.799
<v Speaker 1>the effect is stronger for exaggerating the good trait than

0:49:31.840 --> 0:49:35.200
<v Speaker 1>it is for minimizing the negative trait. I wonder why

0:49:35.239 --> 0:49:38.000
<v Speaker 1>that is. Yeah, I mean, I guess it. You know,

0:49:38.160 --> 0:49:39.839
<v Speaker 1>in a broad sense, it just kind of comes back

0:49:39.840 --> 0:49:43.239
<v Speaker 1>to playing the social game, right of just of presenting

0:49:43.239 --> 0:49:46.560
<v Speaker 1>yourself to your fellow humans. I wonder if it plays

0:49:46.600 --> 0:49:49.680
<v Speaker 1>into our our sense of like having a rich personality,

0:49:49.680 --> 0:49:54.400
<v Speaker 1>that we would imagine ourselves as having strong positive qualities

0:49:54.440 --> 0:49:57.359
<v Speaker 1>and allowing some negative qualities as opposed to you know,

0:49:57.480 --> 0:50:00.680
<v Speaker 1>just uh, not really getting to adventurous with wrong positive

0:50:00.719 --> 0:50:06.040
<v Speaker 1>qualities but denying negative qualities. Yeah, perhaps so. The study

0:50:06.080 --> 0:50:09.000
<v Speaker 1>also they looked at gender. They found no gender association.

0:50:09.040 --> 0:50:11.640
<v Speaker 1>Men and women were equally likely to engage in the

0:50:11.680 --> 0:50:14.759
<v Speaker 1>better than average effect. They looked at culture, and through

0:50:15.000 --> 0:50:19.000
<v Speaker 1>some types of analysis, they didn't find much difference between cultures.

0:50:19.040 --> 0:50:21.720
<v Speaker 1>But they said, to quote, an analysis of eleven matched

0:50:21.760 --> 0:50:24.920
<v Speaker 1>comparisons yielded a significantly larger b T a E in

0:50:24.960 --> 0:50:28.880
<v Speaker 1>the case of European Americans than East Asians. It's possible

0:50:28.920 --> 0:50:31.560
<v Speaker 1>that the better than average effect was larger among European

0:50:31.600 --> 0:50:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Americans because the dimensions were of greater cultural importance to them.

0:50:35.560 --> 0:50:38.440
<v Speaker 1>So like the specific traits being measured in that test

0:50:38.960 --> 0:50:42.319
<v Speaker 1>might have been phrases or traits that were considered more

0:50:42.360 --> 0:50:46.759
<v Speaker 1>important in European American culture as possible um But then

0:50:46.840 --> 0:50:50.080
<v Speaker 1>they also say, indeed, the three studies that considered dimension

0:50:50.160 --> 0:50:54.040
<v Speaker 1>importance found that European Americans exhibited a larger better than

0:50:54.080 --> 0:50:57.880
<v Speaker 1>average effect on individualistic traits, but there was no difference

0:50:57.920 --> 0:51:02.600
<v Speaker 1>between cultural groups on collectivists traits. Moreover, although the better

0:51:02.600 --> 0:51:05.720
<v Speaker 1>than average effect varied by culture, it was generally robust

0:51:05.760 --> 0:51:09.040
<v Speaker 1>in both European Americans and East Asians, which supports the

0:51:09.040 --> 0:51:13.080
<v Speaker 1>position that self enhancement is universal. You know, did these

0:51:13.120 --> 0:51:16.520
<v Speaker 1>foundings do remind me of our previous discussions on how

0:51:17.680 --> 0:51:21.600
<v Speaker 1>the how, how how the East and West differ to

0:51:21.680 --> 0:51:24.600
<v Speaker 1>certain degrees in how we view you know, the nature

0:51:24.640 --> 0:51:27.640
<v Speaker 1>of character, whether it is something that emerges internally or

0:51:27.719 --> 0:51:31.200
<v Speaker 1>it is subject to the in the forces of environment

0:51:31.280 --> 0:51:34.920
<v Speaker 1>and culture. Yes, uh yeah, the the the greater emphasis

0:51:34.960 --> 0:51:38.640
<v Speaker 1>on context, and this also seems to tie into Actually,

0:51:38.680 --> 0:51:41.560
<v Speaker 1>I think this was the context in which that discussion happened,

0:51:41.880 --> 0:51:45.200
<v Speaker 1>was when we were talking about fundamental attribution error. Uh

0:51:45.239 --> 0:51:48.400
<v Speaker 1>and the fact that it seemed like by some measures,

0:51:48.520 --> 0:51:52.239
<v Speaker 1>East Asian cultures were less prone to the fundamental attribution

0:51:52.320 --> 0:51:55.680
<v Speaker 1>error than like European Americans were, right, yeah, though they

0:51:55.680 --> 0:51:57.960
<v Speaker 1>were still prone to it. It just basically the numbers

0:51:57.960 --> 0:51:59.840
<v Speaker 1>were a little different between East and West, and that

0:52:00.000 --> 0:52:02.160
<v Speaker 1>seems to be the case here too, Like both are

0:52:02.200 --> 0:52:04.319
<v Speaker 1>prone to the better than average effect, but by some

0:52:04.400 --> 0:52:08.880
<v Speaker 1>measures it's a little stronger among European Americans, especially on

0:52:09.000 --> 0:52:12.800
<v Speaker 1>individualistic traits. Here's one more that I thought was interesting.

0:52:13.239 --> 0:52:16.919
<v Speaker 1>They found that there was a medium sized positive association

0:52:17.000 --> 0:52:20.520
<v Speaker 1>between the better than average effect and both self esteem

0:52:20.840 --> 0:52:25.920
<v Speaker 1>and life satisfaction quote. As anticipated, Therefore, the tendency to

0:52:25.960 --> 0:52:29.480
<v Speaker 1>perceive oneself as above average was associated with greater self

0:52:29.600 --> 0:52:33.360
<v Speaker 1>esteem and happiness. However, the moderate size of these associations

0:52:33.360 --> 0:52:36.200
<v Speaker 1>indicates that the better than average effect is not redundant

0:52:36.239 --> 0:52:39.239
<v Speaker 1>with self esteem and happiness, so they're saying, it's it's

0:52:39.239 --> 0:52:41.640
<v Speaker 1>clearly not the case that just like self esteem and

0:52:41.680 --> 0:52:44.400
<v Speaker 1>happiness are the better than average effects, that it's not

0:52:44.440 --> 0:52:47.759
<v Speaker 1>just a one for one thing, but there is a correlation. Yeah,

0:52:47.800 --> 0:52:50.760
<v Speaker 1>I imagine that that some listeners might might have already

0:52:50.800 --> 0:52:53.560
<v Speaker 1>been been thinking on this a little bit, because we

0:52:53.640 --> 0:52:55.759
<v Speaker 1>spent a fair amount of of time here in this

0:52:55.840 --> 0:52:59.320
<v Speaker 1>episode sort of driving home the fact that you're probably

0:52:59.320 --> 0:53:01.600
<v Speaker 1>not as good as you think you are. Well, you

0:53:01.680 --> 0:53:05.000
<v Speaker 1>might be about some things, about some things, but uh,

0:53:05.040 --> 0:53:07.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, the the ultimate message is kind of depressing.

0:53:08.320 --> 0:53:11.200
<v Speaker 1>You know. It's kind of like, oh, well, I I

0:53:11.239 --> 0:53:13.440
<v Speaker 1>thought I was an honest person, but I don't know.

0:53:13.520 --> 0:53:15.879
<v Speaker 1>Joe said, I'm not, so I didn't say, I guess

0:53:15.920 --> 0:53:20.560
<v Speaker 1>I should feel bad about myself. Come on, But that

0:53:20.680 --> 0:53:22.719
<v Speaker 1>is not the message of this episode. No. I think

0:53:22.760 --> 0:53:26.400
<v Speaker 1>it's still like it's to to be wary about positive

0:53:26.440 --> 0:53:29.200
<v Speaker 1>self impressions. It's not that you know you are actually

0:53:29.280 --> 0:53:32.520
<v Speaker 1>really bad. It's that our brains on average, have a

0:53:32.560 --> 0:53:35.960
<v Speaker 1>tendency to inflate positive self impressions, especially when it comes

0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:39.239
<v Speaker 1>to things like personality traits. It's worth being aware of

0:53:39.280 --> 0:53:42.080
<v Speaker 1>that fact about ourselves and as it applies to others. Obviously,

0:53:42.080 --> 0:53:43.960
<v Speaker 1>it's not something that applies just to you. This is

0:53:43.960 --> 0:53:47.000
<v Speaker 1>something that appears to apply to human beings, right, Yeah,

0:53:47.000 --> 0:53:48.719
<v Speaker 1>so I guess one way to look at it would be, say,

0:53:48.760 --> 0:53:52.400
<v Speaker 1>on the subject of generosity, like if it's not to say, Okay,

0:53:52.600 --> 0:53:54.400
<v Speaker 1>Joe said, I'm not as generous as I as I

0:53:54.400 --> 0:53:56.520
<v Speaker 1>think I am, and I should feel depressed over this,

0:53:56.600 --> 0:53:59.280
<v Speaker 1>But more we should realize that, Okay, if we value

0:53:59.320 --> 0:54:04.120
<v Speaker 1>our generosity, d that's that's great. We may very well

0:54:04.160 --> 0:54:08.720
<v Speaker 1>be overestimating our generosity and therefore that's just a reason

0:54:08.760 --> 0:54:12.759
<v Speaker 1>to lean into the thing you value. Yeah. Another way

0:54:12.760 --> 0:54:16.160
<v Speaker 1>to do it is to is to make yourself perception

0:54:16.239 --> 0:54:21.959
<v Speaker 1>of your positive traits uh dependent on real world performance. Uh. So,

0:54:22.080 --> 0:54:24.840
<v Speaker 1>for example, if you want to think I'm a generous person,

0:54:24.920 --> 0:54:28.480
<v Speaker 1>don't just trust your gut about these free floating positive qualities.

0:54:28.760 --> 0:54:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Prove it to yourself, right, you have to do things

0:54:31.600 --> 0:54:34.320
<v Speaker 1>that make it true. Yeah, what would a generous person

0:54:34.360 --> 0:54:37.600
<v Speaker 1>do in this scenario? And then do it? Yeah? All right, Well,

0:54:37.600 --> 0:54:40.160
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna go ahead and cut this episode off here,

0:54:40.400 --> 0:54:42.680
<v Speaker 1>but we will be back in the next episode to

0:54:42.719 --> 0:54:46.120
<v Speaker 1>continue discussions of over confidence. Uh. You know what, it

0:54:46.120 --> 0:54:49.200
<v Speaker 1>means from psychological standpoint, will also get into a little

0:54:49.200 --> 0:54:53.160
<v Speaker 1>bit into the business scenario here, which is which I

0:54:53.360 --> 0:54:55.520
<v Speaker 1>have to say, is a lot more interesting than it sounds. Well,

0:54:55.600 --> 0:54:59.960
<v Speaker 1>you're you saying there's over confidence in business. No even

0:55:00.000 --> 0:55:02.879
<v Speaker 1>not believe it or not there is so well, we'll

0:55:02.920 --> 0:55:06.600
<v Speaker 1>discuss that as well in the next episode. In the meantime,

0:55:06.640 --> 0:55:08.560
<v Speaker 1>if you want to check out other episodes of Stuff

0:55:08.560 --> 0:55:10.360
<v Speaker 1>to Blow your Mind, such as you know some of

0:55:10.400 --> 0:55:13.440
<v Speaker 1>these episodes we've been referring back to here, or if

0:55:13.480 --> 0:55:15.920
<v Speaker 1>you want to check out Invention, our other show, you

0:55:15.920 --> 0:55:18.920
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