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Speaker 2: I was looking at NBA futures this morning. The Golden
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Speaker 2: not here at the volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody, hope all
Speaker 2: of you guys are having a great week. Good to
Speaker 2: be back after getting out of town for a little
Speaker 2: bit yesterday to do some skiing up in northern Arizona.
Speaker 2: We have a very special show today. We have Matt Modai,
Speaker 2: who does NBA live streams for betting pros. He's gonna
Speaker 2: come on the show. We're gonna talk about his top
Speaker 2: three NBA Finals bets as well as his favorite MVP bet.
Speaker 2: He's also a diehard Sixers fan. Tough time to be
Speaker 2: a Sixers fan. So we're gonna we're gonna get into
Speaker 2: the weed on the weeds on the Sixers and let
Speaker 2: him vet for a little bit. Matt. First of all,
Speaker 2: let's get started with this. We're gonna do a countdown style. Okay,
Speaker 2: we're gonna go from three to one. Who is your
Speaker 2: third favorite title bet at this point in the season?
Speaker 3: Sure, my third favorite title bet? Drum roll please, I'm
Speaker 3: gonna go with the Los Angeles Clippers obviously they have
Speaker 3: First of all, I guess I should go with the odds.
Speaker 3: So right now they're tied with the Nuggets for the
Speaker 3: second best odds to win the title, which I think
Speaker 3: is kind of crazy that they're tied with then gets
Speaker 3: in the first place. But we'll get there at plus
Speaker 3: four seventy five odds. So what I like to do
Speaker 3: with because I always think about something in terms of
Speaker 3: like the best value bets from a win from a percentage,
Speaker 3: in terms of what's the win percentage of the bet
Speaker 3: in terms of the odds, and what's the win percentage
Speaker 3: of what I actually think of this play and for context,
Speaker 3: win or the odds a plus four to seventy five
Speaker 3: has a win percentage of like seventeen eighteen percent, basically
Speaker 3: telling you, Okay, we think there's like a twenty percent
Speaker 3: roughly chance that the Clippers are going to win the finals,
Speaker 3: which I think I can get there. I mean, like,
Speaker 3: obviously they have the obvious qualify of the have to
Speaker 3: stay healthy. That's they're the biggest question mark for them
Speaker 3: of any other team. But hey, they've been healthy this year.
Speaker 3: I know Paul George has been out for the past
Speaker 3: couple games, nothing crazy, and both him or him, Kawhi
Speaker 3: and James Harden, they're all on pace.
Speaker 1: They played the most games they played in years.
Speaker 3: They've kind of lost contention to be the one seed,
Speaker 3: but regular season that stuff happens, and not necessarily scared
Speaker 3: off from that. And I just love what I've been
Speaker 3: seeing from Kawhi Leonard. Like he's never been a huge
Speaker 3: regular season guy. I mean, he played what like ffty
Speaker 3: two games when the Raptors won the finals back in
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, but he's been phenomenally NBA dot Com and
Speaker 3: I'm not exactly sure how they come up to these
Speaker 3: stats but they list him as like the best ISO
Speaker 3: score in the NBA, and we've all seen him turn
Speaker 3: into the terminator, absolute just game wrecker in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: Even the two games you played against the Suns last year,
Speaker 3: he was amazing. And I just think that the Clippers
Speaker 3: have everything they need to win, and I like it
Speaker 3: from an odds perspective, So tell me where I'm wrong
Speaker 3: about the Clippers.
Speaker 2: I'm super high on the Clippers too. They're going through
Speaker 2: a little bit of a downstretch right now, which like
Speaker 2: is a typical thing for a veteran team, but honestly,
Speaker 2: was kind of crazy that they were as locked in
Speaker 2: as they were for so long right after the trade,
Speaker 2: and like they've kind of gone back and forth between
Speaker 2: wins and losses for a little while. Their defense has
Speaker 2: gone down a big level as of late, but I
Speaker 2: think that's just typical regular season malays. When you kick
Speaker 2: everyone's ass for a few months, eventually it's just kind
Speaker 2: of human nature to let up for a little bit.
Speaker 2: They kind of fall into this category of NBA teams
Speaker 2: that typically doesn't do super well in the postseason, in
Speaker 2: the sense that they're very perimeter orient with a bunch
Speaker 2: of guys that kind of like play both sides of
Speaker 2: the ball, but on the perimeters. I think teams like
Speaker 2: Boston team, teams like Oklahoma City, teams like the New
Speaker 2: Orleans Pelicans, or they have all these rangy wings that
Speaker 2: can guard and can score on the other end of
Speaker 2: the floor. The difference between the Clippers and most of
Speaker 2: those other teams except for Boston obviously is amazing. But
Speaker 2: the difference between the Clippers and teams like the Pelicans
Speaker 2: and the Thunder is they have the real interior physical
Speaker 2: imposition element, which I think is super important. Like why
Speaker 2: is like the one guy who's really a perimeter skill
Speaker 2: player who seems to go up a massive level when
Speaker 2: he gets to the postseason because he's so much stronger
Speaker 2: than everybody and he can get to his spots and
Speaker 2: then if he can. Zubach just gives you that interior
Speaker 2: kind of physicality, a guy that can bang bodies with
Speaker 2: Nikola Jokic, but not only that will give issues to
Speaker 2: other bigger centers in the league, like he historically has
Speaker 2: given Anthony Davis issues on the offensive glass. He's a
Speaker 2: guy that could bury and give issues to Chet Holmgren,
Speaker 2: like even like a Rudy Gobert, so like they're they
Speaker 2: they bring a good combination of like real two way
Speaker 2: perimeter talent while also having that interior size. I also
Speaker 2: like that James Harden has slotted into a role where
Speaker 2: he can have a bad night and it's not the
Speaker 2: end of the world. I liked what you said about
Speaker 2: the seeding. I agree, particularly in the Western Conference. I
Speaker 2: just don't necessarily think it matters all that much because, like,
Speaker 2: no matter where you are, you're gonna have a tough
Speaker 2: go of things. I was looking at it earlier, it's like,
Speaker 2: if you're the one seed, it's like you're probably gonna
Speaker 2: face the Lakers or the Warriors. That's not a fun
Speaker 2: first round series. It's like, then you're gonna face potentially
Speaker 2: like Denver Phoenix in the in the second round, and
Speaker 2: then you're gonna turn around and play in Oklahoma City
Speaker 2: or the Clippers, and then you're gonna turn around and
Speaker 2: play a team out of the Eastern Conference. So to me,
Speaker 2: specifically in the West, seeding doesn't matter as much as
Speaker 2: long as you have that home court in that in
Speaker 2: that first round series. I think that's something that matters
Speaker 2: quite a bit. But I think I think they're built
Speaker 2: for a postseason run, and honestly, I do view them
Speaker 2: as a value bet as well. You're you're not getting
Speaker 2: a better combination of talent in experience with a top
Speaker 2: end superstar the way you get with Kawhi. We had
Speaker 2: Sam Vassini on the show the other day and he
Speaker 2: said that he would take Kawhi as the second best
Speaker 2: playoff player when healthy in the league. Right now, I'm
Speaker 2: not sure if i'd have him quite that high, but
Speaker 2: he's in that conversation. And really, like you mentioned the Phoenix,
Speaker 2: you mentioned the series against Phoenix last year, Like he
Speaker 2: was a total ass kicker while he was out there,
Speaker 2: he's amazing. He just heat, his body didn't hold up.
Speaker 2: And that same health qualifier really applies to every single
Speaker 2: one of those teams. Is there a specific matchup with
Speaker 2: the Clippers that scares you, though.
Speaker 3: Honestly it's the Nuggets. Part of me is just because,
Speaker 3: like we all watched the bubble because there's nothing else
Speaker 3: to watch in the two man game with Jamal Murray
Speaker 3: and Jokic just put them in a complete blender. I
Speaker 3: do think they they've come out of that a little bit.
Speaker 3: Like the following playoff run. They made it to the
Speaker 3: Western Conference Finals and they won the last two games
Speaker 3: against Utah and Paul George was incredible. He like the
Speaker 3: pandemic p jokes all went away. So like if the Nuggets,
Speaker 3: and I'm not predicting this, but if they somehow get
Speaker 3: bounced in the first two rounds, that would be the
Speaker 3: biggest worry for me for the Clippers would be the Nuggets.
Speaker 3: I think the Timberwolves. I don't trust their their late
Speaker 3: game offense, and I think we'll have to see what
Speaker 3: it's like because this is the best perimeter defense that
Speaker 3: Rudy Goberts had when he was on the Jazz. He
Speaker 3: had to do everything. He was like the entire defense.
Speaker 3: And then the Thunder. I was listening to that podcast
Speaker 3: you did with the Sini. They're a little bit too
Speaker 3: young and a little bit too slight, like the third
Speaker 3: worst rebounding team in the league. I think that's that's
Speaker 3: going to come back. And then the Suns. I just
Speaker 3: don't trust the depth. It's like, is Bradley Beal going
Speaker 3: to play in the playoffs? And then what do you
Speaker 3: have outside of them? Like Rayson Allen has been incredible,
Speaker 3: But if you're telling me that he's their fifth most
Speaker 3: important player, like that concerns me. And then Nurk it
Speaker 3: is the healthiest he's been in years. So really it's
Speaker 3: the Nuggets. And that's not a hot take because they
Speaker 3: just won the title last year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually I think the Clippers are just a
Speaker 2: way better version of the Suns. That's why I'm not
Speaker 2: particularly worried about Phoenix Denver. It's interesting because I agree
Speaker 2: there would be they would be the team that you
Speaker 2: would be worried about. And by the way, every team
Speaker 2: in the league should be worried about Denver. They're the
Speaker 2: best specifically, though, there's a couple of different things that
Speaker 2: I like about that matchup for the Clippers at least
Speaker 2: to give them a shot, And it's one Zubats just
Speaker 2: having another big body to throw at Jokic, but also
Speaker 2: they kind of have the like the Nuggets have defenders
Speaker 2: that are good in help situations but aren't good on
Speaker 2: the ball, and so against teams that are more like
Speaker 2: top heavy with superstars and then like role players down
Speaker 2: the roster, they can really load up on stars and
Speaker 2: have really good help and recover schemes. The Clippers have
Speaker 2: the unique ability to kind of spread you out and
Speaker 2: you run out of bodies, like who is gonna guard?
Speaker 2: Like who is Jamal Murray gonna guard in that matchup?
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like, there's going to be
Speaker 2: opportunities to find matchups there that they can take advantage of.
Speaker 2: I give the Clippers a legitimate puncher's chance to beat Denver,
Speaker 2: although I would pick Denver. All right, drum roll again.
Speaker 2: Here for your number two favorite championship bet.
Speaker 1: Okay, So this one I cheated a little bit. Technically.
Speaker 3: It's not to win the title, but it's to come
Speaker 3: out of the East, okay. And it's not And it's
Speaker 3: not the Celtics. I don't know if this coounts, but
Speaker 3: it's not the Celtics. And before I give you the team,
Speaker 3: I kind of just want to want to get your
Speaker 3: thoughts on kind of my logic here. So right now,
Speaker 3: the Celtics are plus one fifteen to win the East.
Speaker 3: That's a win percentage of you have to win basically
Speaker 3: above forty six percent of your bets at plus one fifteen.
Speaker 3: And I don't know, like, is there a fifty percent
Speaker 3: chance that the Celtics are coming out of the East? Probably,
Speaker 3: And maybe it's just like fatigue because they've been so
Speaker 3: good for so long that you just start to pick
Speaker 3: knits where maybe you shouldn't. But my issue has always
Speaker 3: been with the Celtics is they just don't get to
Speaker 3: the rim and unless you have elite jump shooting like
Speaker 3: the Warriors with Stephan Clay or elite mid range with
Speaker 3: Kevin Durant and Booker. Not that I'm saying they should
Speaker 3: be title favorites, but it's just it's hard for me
Speaker 3: to envision them winning four games in a seven game series,
Speaker 3: and in East that might not have the top heavy
Speaker 3: teams like the West, but it's much better than it
Speaker 3: was a last year. Like the Celtics attempt fewest shots
Speaker 3: in the restricted area, the second fewest in the paint,
Speaker 3: but not in the restricted area. They average the most
Speaker 3: above the break three pointers, the most pull up three
Speaker 3: pointers as well, And yeah, they look magnificent when shots
Speaker 3: are falling, but then you have like the first three
Speaker 3: games against the Heat where they can't make a shot
Speaker 3: and everything just looks stagnant and looks just like they
Speaker 3: don't have a professional like a Mike Conley to run
Speaker 3: normal offense. So before I gave you the team, I'm
Speaker 3: just curious about your thoughts on basically the field versus
Speaker 3: the Celtics.
Speaker 2: Well, really quickly before I go there, has that line
Speaker 2: moved much with the recent Bucks resurgence? Like, do you
Speaker 2: remember where that line was a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 3: I don't, so I just checked this yesterday as plus
Speaker 3: one fifteen. I actually think it's gotten more likely that this.
Speaker 3: I think the Celtics have become even bigger favorites because
Speaker 3: they won nine straight at this point, I think is
Speaker 3: what it is.
Speaker 2: You know, I picked we were I can't even remember
Speaker 2: what exactly I think it was with the Nerd Sash
Speaker 2: guys talking about whether or not we take the Celtics
Speaker 2: or the field in the Eastern Conference, and I went
Speaker 2: for the Celtics, and I honestly, I honestly feel like
Speaker 2: a little bit better than a fifty percent chance feels
Speaker 2: like the right number. So if it's plus one fifteen,
Speaker 2: that actually feels like pretty solid odds to me. The
Speaker 2: one thing that really worries me about Milwaukee in a
Speaker 2: series with Boston is I was literally watching this morning
Speaker 2: just with Tyres Maxie and Buddy Healed last night, like
Speaker 2: Derek White and Jalen Brown and Drew Holliday is just
Speaker 2: a torture chamber of perimeter defenders. It's crazy, and they
Speaker 2: can all switch and and they and they're physical, and
Speaker 2: like what I worry about is kind of like what
Speaker 2: happened with Dame when they when they kind of ran
Speaker 2: out of gas against the Pelicans a few years back,
Speaker 2: where it's like where it's like just a good, strong,
Speaker 2: physical perimeter defender can wear Dame out and make him inefficient.
Speaker 2: And he's already kind of having a pretty bad, you know,
Speaker 2: efficiency season by his standards. Anyway, now Milwaukee's defending a
Speaker 2: lot better, and they're starting to figure some stuff out
Speaker 2: in terms of their spacing and pick and roll. And
Speaker 2: I do think Milwaukee has a real shot to win,
Speaker 2: but I would probably give Boston a little better than
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance that they would win it.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I mean that that's fair.
Speaker 3: I think again, it's it's one of those things where
Speaker 3: you get, like I said, you get fatigue. But so
Speaker 3: my pick to come out of the East is actually
Speaker 3: the New York Knicks at plus eight point fifty. That's
Speaker 3: essentially the plus a fifty odds is essentially a win
Speaker 3: percentage of ten percent, and I went through it like, okay,
Speaker 3: if I'm not taking the Celtics and let's go through
Speaker 3: the field. The Calves I think are really good. I
Speaker 3: think they're a really solid regular season team. I'm not
Speaker 3: sure that they can they can win three series in
Speaker 3: the East, Like I'm maybe I'm too scarred from their
Speaker 3: series against the Knicks last year, but they just got
Speaker 3: bodied and I have a tough time seeing them win
Speaker 3: three straight. As a Sixers fan, I'm contractedly obligated to
Speaker 3: not think that Duck Rivers can coach a team into
Speaker 3: the finals. I mean, I'll never get out of my
Speaker 3: head that Hawk series. He played Dwight Howard, Bensimons and
Speaker 3: Bible all the same time in a game seven, must
Speaker 3: win game.
Speaker 1: It's just I can't get there.
Speaker 3: And you know, with the Sixers, first of all, I
Speaker 3: can't be a Homer and come in here and say
Speaker 3: I think the Sixers. But real reality is like I
Speaker 3: just have too much uncertainty around and beats knee and
Speaker 3: even if he comes back late March, which is what
Speaker 3: Woes reported, Like what in beat are we going to see?
Speaker 3: Is he gonna be the ass picker that he was
Speaker 3: at the beginning of the year. So that left me
Speaker 3: with the Knicks, and I don't I think they have
Speaker 3: everything they need, Like obviously, the one thing they need
Speaker 3: is health. The're missing three fits of their starting lineup.
Speaker 1: That's not great.
Speaker 3: But I think part of my logic for the Knicks
Speaker 3: is I think Jalen Brunson is like a legitimate superstar.
Speaker 3: And I believe that it was Vessini who was making
Speaker 3: that same point on your show when he came on.
Speaker 3: But he's awesome, Like his raw stats are good, twenty
Speaker 3: seven point seven points per game for over forty percent,
Speaker 3: shooting from deep, about seven assists per game. He's running
Speaker 3: the second most pick and roll possessions per game pretty efficiently,
Speaker 3: and you can't go under that screen like.
Speaker 1: You used to. Like he'll shoot, he'll shoot from deep.
Speaker 3: He's averaging about a four pull up three pointers per
Speaker 3: game off the pick and roll in and shooting like
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent. And then outside of Brunston, I just
Speaker 3: love their roster. I like they they have shooters now,
Speaker 3: like Og is a good spot up shooter. Boyon can
Speaker 3: get hot. Devincenzo's he's been chucking you like crazy recently,
Speaker 3: and then we'll have to see like Og and Randall
Speaker 3: should be back with enough time to be ramped up
Speaker 3: for the playoffs. We'll have to see with Mitchell Robinson,
Speaker 3: and I think that this year, more than any year,
Speaker 3: they can withstand Randall if he decides to just not
Speaker 3: play well in the playoffs. Like that series against the
Speaker 3: Hawks that Brunson wasn't even on team, Like, that's a
Speaker 3: different a different time. So I don't know, like for
Speaker 3: plus a fifty, like, I just think they have everything
Speaker 3: they need and I think they could beat the Celtics
Speaker 3: in a seven game series.
Speaker 1: But maybe maybe I'm crazy.
Speaker 2: Plus eight point fifty to win the East. I love
Speaker 2: that bet. The Knicks are a team that I'm super
Speaker 2: high on. I think they're literally constructed for the postseason
Speaker 2: exactly I am. I am like super super super high
Speaker 2: on Jalen brunts And I gotten a bunch of trump.
Speaker 2: I was actually thinking about this yesterday. I got in
Speaker 2: a bunch of trouble this summer for saying that I
Speaker 2: thought Jalen Brunson was better than John Morant right now,
Speaker 2: like that John Morant would probably eventually pass him, sure,
Speaker 2: but that he's better than John Murant right now is
Speaker 2: just like a playoff game manager who can really navigate
Speaker 2: the half court, slow down, physical environment, and everybody killed
Speaker 2: me for it. And I'm like, this dude's literally killing
Speaker 2: everybody this year.
Speaker 1: Like he's awesome.
Speaker 2: He's unquestionably been better than Dame this year. Yeah, Like
Speaker 2: that's not even up for debate. Like, like, Jalen Brunson
Speaker 2: is an incredible Dante. DiVincenzo has actually turned into one
Speaker 2: of the best three and D guards in the league
Speaker 2: this season, which is like a crazy value add for
Speaker 2: the Knicks. And then you have this incredibly physically imposing
Speaker 2: frontline with Og Andnobi and Julius Randall and Mitchell Robinson
Speaker 2: if he can come back. Mitchell Robinson is like a
Speaker 2: huge matchup problem for teams, especially on the offensive glass
Speaker 2: and just kind of in general around the rim. He's
Speaker 2: also having had before he got hurt, one of the
Speaker 2: better defensive seasons of his career. I also think teams
Speaker 2: are gonna run out of bodies in a lot of way.
Speaker 2: Like you can imagine an environment where you know you're
Speaker 2: gonna have to throw your biggest, strongest forward on Julius
Speaker 2: Randall and it's like who's guarding ogn Andob because he's
Speaker 2: a guy that can play that bully ball kind of
Speaker 2: back to the basket style and cause some problems in
Speaker 2: matchup situation. So I'm super high on the Knicks as
Speaker 2: a matter of fact, like the among those teams in
Speaker 2: the Eastern Conference, And Sam and I were actually talking
Speaker 2: about this when we did the show the other day.
Speaker 2: If they played the Bucks like tomorrow, I'm not sure
Speaker 2: that I wouldn't pick the Knicks. Now, we'll see when
Speaker 2: we get to April, because the Bucks have a lot
Speaker 2: of time to figure things out, and they are trending
Speaker 2: in the right direction in a lot of ways. But
Speaker 2: it's not impossible to imagine that the Knicks could beat
Speaker 2: a Bucks team in a second round series and then
Speaker 2: go to Boston and play a super physical brand of
Speaker 2: basketball and bait them into their worst tendencies of settling
Speaker 2: for bad jump shots and not attacking the basket, and
Speaker 2: all of a sudden they end up coming out of
Speaker 2: the conference. That is not infeasible. So it's like, like,
Speaker 2: to me, plus eight fifty is an incredible number to
Speaker 2: get the Nicks out. I love that bet. Yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 1: No, that's that's exactly my logic.
Speaker 3: Like, you know, I wouldn't like that at plus four hundred,
Speaker 3: I love I love them at plus eight fifty.
Speaker 2: What is your favorite title bet for this season?
Speaker 3: It's the Denver Nuggets. I tried to be different, but
Speaker 3: I just think it's a Denver Nuggets. Like they're tied
Speaker 3: with the Clippers to have the second best odds to
Speaker 3: win the title, Like I think they should be the
Speaker 3: second best team behind the Celtics. They're plus four to
Speaker 3: seventy five. Like, like I said, that's a win percentage between
Speaker 3: seventeen and eighteen percent. I'll admit that they have a
Speaker 3: little bit of concerning offensive stats, like they need to be,
Speaker 3: if not number one, like top two offense in the
Speaker 3: NBA to win the title. Right now, they're twelve in
Speaker 3: net rating. Part of that, like Murray's missed some games,
Speaker 3: they're thirty and twelve with him in the lineup with
Speaker 3: an offensive net rating that would be equipment to the
Speaker 3: fourth best in the NBA. And that's not even talking
Speaker 3: about when Murray and Yokic share the floor, when they
Speaker 3: just break basketball together. And it kind of reminds me
Speaker 3: last year, like they were the one seed for so
Speaker 3: long in the regular season and had such a cushion
Speaker 3: that people kind of forget that post All Star break,
Speaker 3: the Nuggets didn't look phenomenal. And I looked this up
Speaker 3: because I wanted to make sure my memory was correct,
Speaker 3: Like they were after February fifteenth last year, they were
Speaker 3: thirteen and eleven with the net rating that's would put
Speaker 3: them at like seventeenth in the NBA. Then the playoffs
Speaker 3: started and they lost to combined four games, and like,
Speaker 3: I do think the West is better, So yeah, they
Speaker 3: probably won't make it to the finals by only losing
Speaker 3: three games. But kind of what I got to is, like, okay,
Speaker 3: how many playoff runs like what I have? The last
Speaker 3: two healthy playoff runs for Jamal Murray in Nikola Jokic,
Speaker 3: they won the title and then they beat the Clippers
Speaker 3: and they made it to the Western Conference finals, and
Speaker 3: they had two year break where Murray wasn't healthy. So
Speaker 3: I just think that they're undervalue because they're not quite
Speaker 3: having the regular season that they had last year and
Speaker 3: they're probably not going to be home court, but they
Speaker 3: proved that they can win on the road in the playoffs,
Speaker 3: so that part doesn't scare me. And kind of, like
Speaker 3: we said with the Clippers, like I don't really need
Speaker 3: them to be the one seed. So I just think that,
Speaker 3: like the Nugget, the Nuggets are the best bet to
Speaker 3: win the finals, especially at plus four seventy five.
Speaker 2: I'm actually all season long, I have been confounded at
Speaker 2: why Denver is so such a long shot in Vegas
Speaker 2: to win the title, Like it just doesn't make any
Speaker 2: sense to me, because I understand the optimism surrounding Boston.
Speaker 2: They have a super talented roster. They're kicking everybody's but
Speaker 2: in the regular season, but that was pretty much since
Speaker 2: email Udoka came on board and they made the Derek
Speaker 2: White trade, They've kicked everybody's but incessantly since then. That's
Speaker 2: never that's never not been the case, right, And so
Speaker 2: I struggle with it from the standpoint of like that
Speaker 2: Denver is such a textbook championship favorite because we've seen
Speaker 2: them do it before. They have the best player in
Speaker 2: the world, everybody on their team is back, and there's
Speaker 2: more continuity. And also like as you look around the board,
Speaker 2: like every team has these like glaring flaws, Like even
Speaker 2: with Boston, it's like, what are their last four losses?
Speaker 2: It's like, oh, Denver, Milwaukee, the Clippers, and the Lakers,
Speaker 2: all games where they settled for a bunch of jump
Speaker 2: shots and missed a bunch of shots. Now that's not
Speaker 2: to say Boston can't win. Like to me, Austin should
Speaker 2: only be slightly behind Denver like like, but to me,
Speaker 2: they should be behind Denver. And so I one hundred
Speaker 2: percent agree with you. I see them as a as
Speaker 2: a as a real value. Add I'm not as worried.
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not as worried about their about their
Speaker 2: offensive issues during the regular season, for starters like Jamal
Speaker 2: Murray has missed a healthy chunk of time that has
Speaker 2: kind of thrown a wrench in some of the data. Also,
Speaker 2: like there's been extended stretches of the year where they've
Speaker 2: defended harder in the regular season than they did last year. Ironically,
Speaker 2: that stretch last year that you're talking about post All
Speaker 2: Star Break that kind of got me off their scent
Speaker 2: because I was like thinking, Okay, this is a team
Speaker 2: that's a mediocre defense and an elite offense. They're gonna
Speaker 2: need to be sharp going into the postseason, like the
Speaker 2: need They're gonna need to be on top of their details.
Speaker 2: They're gonna need to be really on a string defensively,
Speaker 2: at least to get to the level they need to get,
Speaker 2: and then it ended up not even mattering when it
Speaker 2: when when we got to the postseason, and like, really
Speaker 2: it comes down to to just kind of put a
Speaker 2: bow on it. It comes down to just my core
Speaker 2: basketball philosophy, which is like playoff basketball is one with
Speaker 2: a physical interior style of play in a grind out,
Speaker 2: slow down half court environment. And there is literally not
Speaker 2: a team in the league that does that as well
Speaker 2: as Denver and I to me, I've said this on
Speaker 2: the show before, and I feel strongly about this. If
Speaker 2: they are healthy, meaning their core five guys are healthy,
Speaker 2: I would be surprised if they did not win the
Speaker 2: title because I don't, like legitimately, like if the Clippers
Speaker 2: upset them, I'd be like, wow, I did not see
Speaker 2: that coming. Like legitimately. It is something that I feel
Speaker 2: very strongly about. I think that we see the healthiest
Speaker 2: gap between the best player in the world and the
Speaker 2: second best player since Lebron around like twenty twelve, twenty thirteen,
Speaker 2: like he is head and shoulders above the field in
Speaker 2: my opinion, and getting them at what was the number one.
Speaker 1: More time for seventy five to win the title.
Speaker 2: Plus four plus forty four to seventy five is insane
Speaker 2: to me. I think that that's such a great bet.
Speaker 2: Who's your favorite MVP bet right now? So?
Speaker 3: I mean, Jokic is the favorite to win the MVP,
Speaker 3: and he should be the favorite to win the MVP.
Speaker 3: There's only one other guy that I wanted to throw
Speaker 3: at you, and that's SGA. Right now, he's plus two
Speaker 3: to fifty and he has the second best odds to
Speaker 3: win plus two to fifty. That translates to win percentage
Speaker 3: of about twenty eight twenty nine percent. I don't know,
Speaker 3: is there is there a third of a chance that
Speaker 3: SGA wins the MVP? Like if the thunder who are hot,
Speaker 3: end the season with the one seed. Right now, they're
Speaker 3: tied with the Timberwolves, and I think they've won like
Speaker 3: what seven straight at this point something like that. Right now,
Speaker 3: they're like a half game behind the Timberwolves in terms
Speaker 3: of record against teams above five hundred. They have the
Speaker 3: second best net rating in the entire NBA, only behind
Speaker 3: the Celtics. Like, I don't know, is that crazy? I'm
Speaker 3: not going to say that I think SGA is gonna
Speaker 3: win the MVP or that that's even my favorite bet.
Speaker 3: It's just if I had to give you someone that's
Speaker 3: not Jokic.
Speaker 2: Honestly, the case for it would be what you were
Speaker 2: just saying about Jokics, like, what if what if they
Speaker 2: let their foot off the gas here down the stretch
Speaker 2: of the season, and if they what if they end
Speaker 2: up what if Denver ends up winning with like ending
Speaker 2: up at the war seed, and and what if from
Speaker 2: their you know, Yokic sits four or five games and
Speaker 2: you know, just kind of does what he did at
Speaker 2: the end of last season, which is basically punt the
Speaker 2: MVP to Joel Embiid. If he does something like that,
Speaker 2: If he does something like that, SGA just becomes the
Speaker 2: winner by default. And I think that's reflected in the odds.
Speaker 2: I that said, like, man, they look so sharp right now,
Speaker 2: Denver does coming out of the break so far like
Speaker 2: that would be that would be the one kind of
Speaker 2: a bit of reticence that I have. But yeah, I
Speaker 2: think I think I think that like SGA makes sense
Speaker 2: as a as like a long shot bet, simply because
Speaker 2: of the fact that we saw Denver do something very
Speaker 2: similar last year. Also, it's just crazy to think about
Speaker 2: I was like, this was literally what I got into
Speaker 2: all that trouble for yesterday. But like you could make
Speaker 2: a case he should have won last year. Yeah, No,
Speaker 2: I wasn't making that case. I thought Joel deserved it.
Speaker 2: But like, at a very minimum, he's going to be
Speaker 2: a three out of four m VP with the with
Speaker 2: the with the second place finish in a year where
Speaker 2: he literally punted the award, Like this is a run
Speaker 2: of dominance that we have not seen since Lebron in
Speaker 2: the in the early twenty twelves. And we should all
Speaker 2: be thankful that Jamal Murray and and then we're out
Speaker 2: it well, and it wasn't Jamal Murray was out and
Speaker 2: Michael Porter Junior was out as well, I think in
Speaker 2: two thousand, in twenty twenty two, if I remember correctly. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: so like that, Yeah, like we should all be thankful
Speaker 2: because it's very possible, especially in that twenty twenty one season,
Speaker 2: which was kind of wide open, and there were a
Speaker 2: bunch of like that weird Hawks team made it to
Speaker 2: the conference finals, and then that weird Clippers team without
Speaker 2: Kawhi made it to the conference finals. Like even that
Speaker 2: Suns team to me, didn't feel like a traditional championship contender,
Speaker 2: like that feels like a year Denver wins it if
Speaker 2: they're healthy too, So like, I think it's incredible what
Speaker 2: we're seeing from Jokic. All Right, so I turn on
Speaker 2: the game this morning, I'm watching Celtic Sixers and and
Speaker 2: I'm finding so there's some silver linings there. I've seen
Speaker 2: some stuff. We'll talk about it here in a second.
Speaker 2: But then I look, because I haven't followed the Sixers
Speaker 2: super closely since Embiid got hurt, just because it doesn't
Speaker 2: you're not gonna learn anything super interesting about them as
Speaker 2: a Sixers fan, Where are you at with this team? Man?
Speaker 2: How you doing? How you holding up?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I'm okay. I appreciate you asking.
Speaker 3: You know, it's kind of funny because when Embiid was
Speaker 3: on his run of dominance, I was like, you know,
Speaker 3: I think this is the best roster the Sixers I've had,
Speaker 3: specifically to compliment Joelle Embiid, like the Jimmy Butler roster
Speaker 3: was better last year. The roster was probably better, but
Speaker 3: they're more able to withstand an injury to embad because
Speaker 3: they could just you know, let hard and run the show.
Speaker 3: And then in bi it gets hurt, he misses a month,
Speaker 3: and I'm like, do they only have one other good
Speaker 3: player on that roster? It's like amazing how different their
Speaker 3: team looks. Like Max, He's awesome. I love Tyrese MAXI
Speaker 3: you know, is he ready to run the show in
Speaker 3: the playoffs? Maybe or maybe not. But where I'm at
Speaker 3: with the Sixers is like if they if they can't
Speaker 3: get to like if they can't get a top six seat,
Speaker 3: which right now they're currently the six seed or tied
Speaker 3: with the Heat in terms of record, but they're only
Speaker 3: a half game up on both the Magic and the Pacers.
Speaker 3: Even if Embiid comes back and at the end of
Speaker 3: March and he looks good, like I just have a
Speaker 3: hard time seeing them really making a run because you
Speaker 3: don't know how his knees gonna hold up, even if
Speaker 3: he comes back healthy. And man, the East is just
Speaker 3: so much better this year than it has been like
Speaker 3: every other you're the Sixers. I've lost in the second round.
Speaker 3: They've waltzed out of their first round opponent, like they
Speaker 3: beat the Heat pre Jimmy Butler. They beat the Raptors
Speaker 3: post Kawhi a couple of years ago, and last year
Speaker 3: they beat the Nets team that was wouldn't have been
Speaker 3: the sixth seed if they didn't have a great first
Speaker 3: half with Durant and Kyrie. So where I'm at with
Speaker 3: the Sixers is I wear Eagles hats and I wear
Speaker 3: Phillies hats, and I don't wear Sixers hats.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, the case for the Sixers to win the title
Speaker 2: is MB goes into the postseason and just kills everybody. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And it's hard to imagine that happening this season under
Speaker 2: the circumstances. I mean, he is a rhythm player. Conditioning
Speaker 2: is a very important part of his success, and it's
Speaker 2: difficult to imagine him just like stepping back out onto
Speaker 2: the court in late March and then like being like, Okay,
Speaker 2: let's start from the eight seed and let's see if
Speaker 2: we can do this thing. Like it just seems it
Speaker 2: just feels like a long shot. There are encouraging things
Speaker 2: like I am such a huge Tyrese Maxi fan. I
Speaker 2: remember when I ran into him in Vegas at Summer
Speaker 2: League a couple of years ago, and he came out
Speaker 2: of the locker room just like or he came out
Speaker 2: of the rec center there at UNLV just like completely
Speaker 2: drenching sweat after workout, and I'm like, dude, it's July,
Speaker 2: and like everyone else is here just like relaxing and
Speaker 2: having a great time, and you're in the gym just
Speaker 2: like kicking your ass, getting ready, you know, for next season.
Speaker 2: And I love his combination of downhill speed and pull
Speaker 2: up shooting. I thought last night he was cooking everybody
Speaker 2: on the Celtics. He's cooking Tatum, He's getting like cooking
Speaker 2: Derek White, He's cooking Drew Holliday. He's getting better at
Speaker 2: his kickout reads. He's got a two point five assistant
Speaker 2: turnover ratio. Ever since Joel Embiid went out, He's maintained
Speaker 2: his efficiency for the most part. He's been at twenty
Speaker 2: seven points per game at fifty seven percent through shooting
Speaker 2: since Embid went out, which is really solid, especially when
Speaker 2: the entire scheme is devoted towards trying to slow you down.
Speaker 2: He can turn the corner on the best perimeter defenders
Speaker 2: in the league. Absolutely loved that guy, and honestly, like,
Speaker 2: I do think he's good enough to be a good
Speaker 2: legit number two next to Joel Embiid. I also like,
Speaker 2: I really like this Ricky Council, the fourth guy.
Speaker 1: He's awesome.
Speaker 2: Like I was, I've watched like the handful of Sixers
Speaker 2: games I've watched in the last couple of months. I've
Speaker 2: been like, I keep like I remember the first time,
Speaker 2: I was like, who is that? And then like I'm
Speaker 2: watching him last night, I'm like, here's Ricky Council again.
Speaker 2: He's got like he plays with a lot of motor.
Speaker 2: He's a good athlete. He rebounds really well. He can
Speaker 2: put the ball on the floor and like make plays
Speaker 2: off the bounce. I was pulling the stats earlier. His
Speaker 2: per thirty six numbers this year twenty four points per
Speaker 2: game in eight rebounds or twenty four points per thirty
Speaker 2: six eight rebounds per thirty six on sixty two percent
Speaker 2: true shooting. So he's he's producing like a twenty four
Speaker 2: and eight guy efficiently in the small spurts that he's
Speaker 2: out there on the floor. I really like that. I
Speaker 2: have won grite. I really don't understand why Buddy Healed
Speaker 2: is starting for them, and here's the case. I understand,
Speaker 2: Like Tyres Maxy's competing on defense. He had some really
Speaker 2: good possesions against Jalleen Brown last night, like Jaymon Brown
Speaker 2: was trying to pick on him and he was just
Speaker 2: just holding his ground picked him clean twice. You're an
Speaker 2: offensive foul. But like he does have some limitations on that,
Speaker 2: and he's just a little small and he almost like
Speaker 2: he almost like plays too hard for his own good
Speaker 2: on defense. Like he sometimes he like overreacts and jumps
Speaker 2: and gets out of position, which can which can hurt
Speaker 2: him sometimes. But like, I really do think you need
Speaker 2: someone of the d Anthony Melton ilk at the two,
Speaker 2: a guy that's like a more defensive minded perimeter uh
Speaker 2: like kind of like guy that you can throw on
Speaker 2: the other team's best guard. And like Buddy Healed to
Speaker 2: me as a guy that's like he's your textbook like
Speaker 2: high volume three point shooter that's pretty efficient and you
Speaker 2: could run things like ghost screen actions and stuff to
Speaker 2: get the defense in rotation. It's a good start. And
Speaker 2: I like him as a bench weapon and in general
Speaker 2: I like him as a talent add to the team.
Speaker 2: But to me, like having another skill guard next to
Speaker 2: Tyrese Maxi is setting yourself up for failure on the
Speaker 2: defensive end of the floor. Also, historically, Buddy Heel tends
Speaker 2: to kind of run into efficiency issues when he gets
Speaker 2: into really physical defensive environments, which again happened against Boston
Speaker 2: last night other than the first two shots he hit.
Speaker 2: So like, I just wonder, like, how do you feel
Speaker 2: about the Buddy Heald move? Do you think it like
Speaker 2: makes sense for them? And do you agree with the
Speaker 2: way that they're using him so far?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it makes sense when e beats healthy
Speaker 3: because they his gravity is going to be so helpful
Speaker 3: for EMBIID and EMBIID in the PANCA clean up a
Speaker 3: lot of issues they would have defensively. But yeah, I
Speaker 3: kind of agree that it would make more sense to
Speaker 3: start d Anthony Melton, like the fan. Elton also missed
Speaker 3: a ton of time when the Sixers are losing a
Speaker 3: bunch of games. He missed I don't know, it's six weeks,
Speaker 3: whatever it was. And I loved Anthony Melton, like I think,
Speaker 3: like as long as I've been a Sixers fan, like,
Speaker 3: and then in the EMBID era, they haven't had a
Speaker 3: guy who can both shoot and play defense. It's been
Speaker 3: either or it's been JJ Reddick, it's been Seth Curry
Speaker 3: or last year they had PJ.
Speaker 1: Tucker.
Speaker 3: They can at least do both and it's a it's
Speaker 3: a revelation to watch. I also think, I mean, I
Speaker 3: hadn't watched a ton of Buddy Heal, but privately, coming
Speaker 3: on the sixers, he's got limitless range.
Speaker 1: I thought he would have a quicker trigger. I doesn't.
Speaker 3: He doesn't quite shoot as as just unconscious as you
Speaker 3: would hope for. He's a little bit of a better
Speaker 3: playmaker than I was expecting. Like he's done a pretty
Speaker 3: good job with the cyst. But yeah, I mean, I
Speaker 3: think the problem is he makes a lot more sense
Speaker 3: with Embeed in the lineup because, like I said, that
Speaker 3: gravity is just so helpful, and their two man game
Speaker 3: could end up being pretty good, like probably not as
Speaker 3: good as him and JJ Reddick because that was really good,
Speaker 3: and even Seth Curry was really good for the one
Speaker 3: year they had him and his two man.
Speaker 1: Game with Maxie's awesome.
Speaker 3: But but yeah, I kind of I kind of agree
Speaker 3: a Maxi Buddy Heald backcourt without having like with with
Speaker 3: Beeball Paul as the as the rim protector, it's just
Speaker 3: not gonna it's just not gonna get it done.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I that that's I totally understand it within
Speaker 2: the context of the embiid move, I thought the same thing.
Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, this is jj reddick Seth Curry basically
Speaker 2: is like essentially going away from the high pick and roll,
Speaker 2: you know, pocket passes to the foul line for embat
Speaker 2: and back to some of like just the dribble handoff
Speaker 2: stuff that he did so much with those guys. And
Speaker 2: I do really like that. But again, like to me,
Speaker 2: it's matchup based and it makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 2: It's almost like a staggering kind of thing with Maxi
Speaker 2: as a way to keep running offense. So like you
Speaker 2: can have Maxi led units because Maxie's demonstrating he can
Speaker 2: score and run an offense without em beat out there,
Speaker 2: Like that's how damn good he is, and so you
Speaker 2: can kind of construct lineups accordingly and make it work.
Speaker 2: To me, like d Anthony Melton is literally like a
Speaker 2: slightly lesser version of Condavious Callwell Pope. Like he's a
Speaker 2: good big athlete at that position who can guard the
Speaker 2: difference between him and KCP is KCP is more of
Speaker 2: like an off the catch off, the dribble handoff kind
Speaker 2: of guy. D Anthony Melton actually has some off the
Speaker 2: dribble pop like he can really put the ball on
Speaker 2: the floor. But to me, like that's the mold is.
Speaker 2: You look at it in the same way that you
Speaker 2: can have Murray and KCP, and it works because KCP
Speaker 2: can guard Steph Curry, ACP can do take on these
Speaker 2: higher leverage defensive assignments. You look at it as Tyres
Speaker 2: Maxine and the Anthony Meltain and then if the matchup
Speaker 2: makes sense, if they're a team that doesn't attack, like
Speaker 2: for instance, if you're playing Boston, then yeah, like maybe
Speaker 2: Buddyheal makes more sense because they're going to be initiating
Speaker 2: more offense through Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum, and it's
Speaker 2: more on you know, Tobias Harrison, Kelly eu Bray to
Speaker 2: guard on the perimeter. You know, Like I like him there,
Speaker 2: I just don't necessarily agree with the way that they've
Speaker 2: used him so far. All right, Matt, why don't you
Speaker 2: tell us about where we can find your work?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Sure, So, as you mentioned, I do MBA betting live
Speaker 3: streams for betting pros on directly on the YouTube channel
Speaker 3: every Monday Wednesday Friday at eleven am. Anything else you
Speaker 3: can find on my Twitter slash x handle. I don't
Speaker 3: know what we're even calling it these days at Jedi
Speaker 3: in my last name MODEI j E d I m
Speaker 3: O d I and to have some sort of Star
Speaker 3: Wars stuff in there. But yeah, I appreciate having me
Speaker 3: and that's where you can find me.
Speaker 2: Hell yeah, dude. All right, I have one last question
Speaker 2: for you, mister Star Wars fan. Have you read the
Speaker 2: Throng books? No?
Speaker 1: I haven't.
Speaker 3: I have not read any of the books, so maybe
Speaker 3: I'm a poser, but I've not read any of the book.
Speaker 2: I'm disappointed, Matt. I'm disappointed. Hey, Hey, this was a
Speaker 2: lot of fun. I really appreciate you coming on the show.
Speaker 2: Everybody go check out Matt and his work on YouTube.
Speaker 2: As always, we appreciate you guys for supporting us. We'll
Speaker 2: see you guys later tonight for the live stream after
Speaker 2: Clippers Lakers.
Speaker 3: The volume