WEBVTT - Sri-Kumar: Real growth cannot come from monetary policy alone

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Europe and attachment to Europe looks

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<v Speaker 1>worse and worse every single day. There's a security issue

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<v Speaker 1>that the Brits field. I don't think the business cycle

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<v Speaker 1>dynamics that we've seen since World War Two changed. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was the same and they're gonna start to

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<v Speaker 1>manifest themselves. Many in markets on looking at tenure rates

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<v Speaker 1>at a seventy five and are concluding, Wow, if rates

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<v Speaker 1>on SOLU, that must mean that the U s economy

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<v Speaker 1>is unhealthy. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics,

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<v Speaker 1>finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning. It is

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<v Speaker 1>seven am on Wall Street noon in London, where the

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit debate is in full cry, and one pm in

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<v Speaker 1>liver Clause in Germany, where the folks that buyer are

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<v Speaker 1>sitting by the phone waiting for a response to their

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<v Speaker 1>sixty two billion dollar offer for months. Santo and Michael

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<v Speaker 1>McKee along with Tom Keane. We'll look at those stories

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<v Speaker 1>and more here today on Surveillance. The UK government out

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<v Speaker 1>a short time ago with a forecast that a vote

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<v Speaker 1>to leave the EU would cause a year long recession,

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<v Speaker 1>sparking a decline in the pound and costing hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of jobs. The foot see doesn't like that. Down

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one points right now, three tenths of eight percent,

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<v Speaker 1>and your pound is trading at sixty seven, down a

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<v Speaker 1>quarter of a percent this morning. Buio shares this morning,

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<v Speaker 1>well you would as you would expect, their lower three

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<v Speaker 1>point four percent. But what's interesting is Monsanto shares. They're

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<v Speaker 1>up eight point eight percent to hundred and ten forty eight.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's a hundred and twenty two dollar share offer.

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<v Speaker 1>So Tom, there's clearly something that investors aren't liking about this.

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<v Speaker 1>And in the column in the morning, Yeah, the docks

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<v Speaker 1>in Germany reflecting the decline in bioshares, down seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>points right now three quarters of a percent. Stocks in

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<v Speaker 1>Europe overall are lower by about two points half a

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<v Speaker 1>percent on the day. UH in the US futures not

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<v Speaker 1>getting a big boost from Monsanto at the moment when

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<v Speaker 1>SMP features are off four points two tenths, Dow features

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<v Speaker 1>down twenty nine two tenths, and it's a one tenth

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<v Speaker 1>decline for nazdac Imani features. They are off five points

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<v Speaker 1>right now. The fat, remember the fat three fed speakers today,

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<v Speaker 1>Jim bowed out already nothing new from him. But bonds

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment are mixed, the curve flattening some. The

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<v Speaker 1>tenure NOE yield falls the basis point to one pot

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<v Speaker 1>two percent, at the five year at one point three six,

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<v Speaker 1>and the two year rises. Uh just a touch eight

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<v Speaker 1>eight basis points for your two year. No yeld G

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<v Speaker 1>seven ministers meeting over the weekend. No coordinated plan on growth,

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<v Speaker 1>the usual. We'll cooperate on currencies. The dollar at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment is we'll call it basically unchanged at three sixty two,

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<v Speaker 1>after rising a little bit when the Fed suggested they

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<v Speaker 1>will raise rates in June. It has sort of flattened out.

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<v Speaker 1>The Euro trading at one twelve oh six. The end

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<v Speaker 1>got stronger today one on nine forty five interview with

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<v Speaker 1>Rohiko crew on CNBC overnight. Uh So it appears Tom

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<v Speaker 1>the status quo ante weekend for investors. Not a whole

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<v Speaker 1>lot has changed in the I was just commodities a

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<v Speaker 1>little saggy, and we've seen that in the tape in

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<v Speaker 1>the last number of minutes watching Luney on that LUNI

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<v Speaker 1>sixty weaker Canada this morning. Where's the ruble haven't. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>weaker dollar ruble as well, just as a proxy watching

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<v Speaker 1>German rates as well. They were lower rates earlier, but

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<v Speaker 1>still lower rates. This morning on the two in the

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<v Speaker 1>Comar with us Street Camar of Comar Global, Street Comar

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<v Speaker 1>Global and Economics, one of our most popular guests. A

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<v Speaker 1>lot of our audience agrees with your caution, not skepticism,

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<v Speaker 1>but caution about American economic growth. What do the growth

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<v Speaker 1>optimists have now? Is it too much of an appreciation

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<v Speaker 1>of what the consumers doing or is it other dynamics.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the optimists had expected that once the financial

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<v Speaker 1>crisis was over, Tom, that the recovery would be swift,

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<v Speaker 1>because that's the history that we have had, especially after

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<v Speaker 1>the serious one recession that did not happen. The second

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<v Speaker 1>reason for the optimism was that the FED was giving

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<v Speaker 1>you a tailwind in terms of quantitative easing and zero

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates, and the tailwind helped the stock market, but

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<v Speaker 1>it didn't help the economy. So I think those were

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<v Speaker 1>the two major issues, the two major problems, and real

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<v Speaker 1>growth cannot be got from monetary policy alone. I like

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<v Speaker 1>to say that if you were a plumber when the

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<v Speaker 1>month when the FED had an eight hundred billion balance sheet,

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<v Speaker 1>now that it has four point five trillion, you have

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<v Speaker 1>not become a nuclear physicist. You're still a plumber. And

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<v Speaker 1>in order to change that, you need the change of

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<v Speaker 1>the structure. You need education, you need vocational training, and

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<v Speaker 1>monetary policy in the United States as well as in

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<v Speaker 1>Japan and in the euro Zone gave you the illusion

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<v Speaker 1>that you didn't have to make any other changes. Last week,

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<v Speaker 1>Michael and I are recovering stam Fisher's comments at Columbia

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<v Speaker 1>an Honor of Michael Woodford to the models, to the

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<v Speaker 1>economic models of Michael Woodford, are they of benefit? Now?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean? Do they? Do? They essentially work? I think

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<v Speaker 1>the economic models simply don't work. If you go by again,

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Woodford is a is a brilliant theorist, and he

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<v Speaker 1>has all obviously worked very closely with Ben Bernanki at

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<v Speaker 1>Princeton before he came to my alma mater, Columbia University.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you looked to the environment in which the

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Woodford policies are working, the Ben Bernankee policies are working,

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<v Speaker 1>you are looking at a soggy monetary policy under very

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<v Speaker 1>low interest rates. And I think that is essentially what

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<v Speaker 1>all these monitors face, that they are in a world

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<v Speaker 1>which is essentially hostile to their measures. What's the current

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<v Speaker 1>low interest rate, the current level of interest rates? What

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<v Speaker 1>is that accomplishing? I'm sorry, what does it cost? What

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<v Speaker 1>is it accomplishing? Uh? What it accomplishes this market distortion.

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<v Speaker 1>It forces you to stretch for yield, and people who

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<v Speaker 1>should not be taking too much of risk, such as

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<v Speaker 1>people with low income, people who are retired, people who

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<v Speaker 1>don't have other financial backing, are all forced to go

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<v Speaker 1>in for higher level of yield. And you see again

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the rash of mergers and acquisitions, the

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<v Speaker 1>rash of foreign expansions, all of the low interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>are making you behave in a way you wouldn't have

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<v Speaker 1>done had the interest rates been more normal to begin with, Michael,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that's I think the crucial problem that

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<v Speaker 1>you have both with consumers save us, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>with businesses the way. Are you so negative on the

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<v Speaker 1>FED raising rates? I mean, shouldn't shouldn't it be what

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing. I'm not negative on the racing rates at all.

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<v Speaker 1>I said they should have raised two years ago. But

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<v Speaker 1>what I'm negative about is that pretending that they would

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<v Speaker 1>raise in December and that would have no impact on

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<v Speaker 1>the markets, or that they have a chance to raise

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates on June fifteenth, eight days before the Brexit vote,

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<v Speaker 1>and expect that it's not going to have much of

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<v Speaker 1>an impact on the markets. That is where I think

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<v Speaker 1>the FED is wrong. That's where I think the FED

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<v Speaker 1>is a prisoner of its own policies. I'm not saying

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<v Speaker 1>that the fend shouldn't raise it, but why don't you

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<v Speaker 1>raise it? Get ready for a big market correction and

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<v Speaker 1>then go your way up and then keep normalizing grates.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you assume the curved flattening that we've seen is

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<v Speaker 1>not a signal of recession. We're now we're near the

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<v Speaker 1>two year being saying yelled as a tenure. But the vectors.

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<v Speaker 1>There gets a lot of concern from the gloom crew.

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<v Speaker 1>You're not gloomy, You've just been cautious. Does the two

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<v Speaker 1>stents spread signal economic slowdown or contraction? The two tents

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<v Speaker 1>spreads so far is signaling an economic slowdown? Could it continue?

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<v Speaker 1>And then talk to you about an actual recession. It

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<v Speaker 1>depends on what further movements you have. What I've been saying, Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>is that the tenure is going to go toward one percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Today we had the two years, the tenure tenure one

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<v Speaker 1>year is going close to one percent over the next

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<v Speaker 1>one point zero zero one point zero zero. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you do that, if you look at even the spread

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<v Speaker 1>between the four the federal funds rate and the ten year,

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<v Speaker 1>it is flattened enormously, even if the tenure, if the

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<v Speaker 1>federal funds rate were to increase, Mike, that's positively America.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you have blows through HSPCs one zero? Tell me why?

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<v Speaker 1>Because the two reasons. One, I don't think inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>picking up, Michael. Secondly, and I don't think I cannot

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<v Speaker 1>growth is going to pick up if you have very

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<v Speaker 1>slow economic growth and it starts to slow down even

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<v Speaker 1>further with the passage of time. Uh. They're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the nominal ten uere interest rate being a product of

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<v Speaker 1>both your expectation for real growth and your inflationary expectations.

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<v Speaker 1>Just don't add up to anything like even one point five.

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<v Speaker 1>That's that's my arithmetic. You were not impressed by the

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<v Speaker 1>API numbers this last week. I'm not impressed by the

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<v Speaker 1>CPI numbers. But the code inflation is still well below

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed's target. You have the euro Zone which is

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with deflation. The Japanese deflation is getting worse. The

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese wholesale price index has been negative about four years. Quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>you're part of your calculus as we import their deflationla exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>US is not an island. It can't have a high

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<v Speaker 1>inflation when the rest of the world is going down.

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<v Speaker 1>I just put this out on Twitter. We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>rip up the script here, folks, and come back and

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<v Speaker 1>really dig into this. With three COMAR, the idea of

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<v Speaker 1>moving from one point eight two HSBC with an outlier

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<v Speaker 1>call one point five for a major bank of three

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<v Speaker 1>COMAR blows way through that to a lower yield futures

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<v Speaker 1>negative three. This our surveillance is brought to you by

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<v Speaker 1>Mont Kisco Volvo visit Mount Kisco Volvo dot com. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>Michael bar with the latest news headline, Thank you very much.

0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:02.880
<v Speaker 1>President Obama has removed a fifty year old ban on

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<v Speaker 1>selling arms to Vietnam. The President is on a three

0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:09.559
<v Speaker 1>day visit to the country before heading to Japan. Officials

0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.680
<v Speaker 1>say two suicide bombers hit Yiman, southern port city of

0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:16.760
<v Speaker 1>Aiden today, killing at least forty five people. Security officials

0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:19.280
<v Speaker 1>say young men seeking to join the army were targeted

0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:22.640
<v Speaker 1>today at judge in Baltimore schedule to announce his verdict

0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.760
<v Speaker 1>in the trial of one of six city police officers

0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.720
<v Speaker 1>charged with the death of Freddie Gray. Prosecutors say officer

0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:34.000
<v Speaker 1>Edward Nero arrested Gray without probable cause and was negligent

0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:36.480
<v Speaker 1>when he did not buckle him into a seat belt

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<v Speaker 1>in the police van. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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<v Speaker 1>powered by our twenty four hundred journalists more than a

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0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Tom and Michael. Thanks so much. Shout out to the

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<v Speaker 1>Jack Brown Pediatric Cancer Charity of London and of New York.

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<v Speaker 1>This morning, police officers from England. Police officers from America

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<v Speaker 1>will pull Jet Blue airplanes at JFK in support of

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<v Speaker 1>pdotic cancer research. Good morning, Bloomberg TV. By your try

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<v Speaker 1>see a headline right now crossing the Bloomberg Tribute and

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<v Speaker 1>Publishing is rejecting the Gannet bid offering and it offers

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.400
<v Speaker 1>mutual talks. Will have more in that story as it

0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:02.720
<v Speaker 1>crosses the Bloomberg. But again that cross seconds ago. Government

0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.800
<v Speaker 1>bonds meanwhile rising the yen strengthening as investors way the

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 1>time we get the federal reserves, next increase in interest

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 1>rates and the outlook for inflation. Commodities sliding led by metals,

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>will stalks in eure up to flim. We checked the

0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 1>markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.520
<v Speaker 1>SNP EVENI futures down three points down, EVENI futures down

0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty three nasadac Emity futures down to dacks. In Germany's

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.560
<v Speaker 1>down eight tenths per cent. Pen your treasury up five

0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds, the yield one point eight two percent. NIMEX

0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.400
<v Speaker 1>screwed oil down one point two percent or sixty cents

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.480
<v Speaker 1>to forty two A barrel call. Make school down three

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:37.840
<v Speaker 1>tenths per cent or three dollars eighty cents at twelve

0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 1>forty nine ten announced the euro a dollar twelve twelve

0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:43.319
<v Speaker 1>the end one oh nine point three nine. That's a

0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Charine, thanks so much.

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.120
<v Speaker 1>Buyer Beyer. However, you want to look at it on

0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.880
<v Speaker 1>Monsanto breaking down not through this morning weakness, but in

0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 1>Germany trading three percent down, down a good fifteen percent

0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:02.000
<v Speaker 1>from the peak of May twelve. So there's the shareholders voting.

0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 1>Michael McKee, we have sophisticated listeners worldwide. One of them

0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:10.080
<v Speaker 1>works for Wells Fargo and takes issue. He goes twenty

0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>basis points higher in yield versus three comar looking for

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.439
<v Speaker 1>the yield to go a d basis points lower. Well,

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.520
<v Speaker 1>there's not a lot of people calling for a one

0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:25.080
<v Speaker 1>per cent tenure yield, so she is is occupying any

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:29.640
<v Speaker 1>space of his own almost there. Um, your view does

0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.440
<v Speaker 1>get a little bit of support this morning tree from

0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.320
<v Speaker 1>the New York Fed. They've just put out their most

0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 1>recent in time. You're gonna like this because I know

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>you love d s g E. They they have run

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 1>the numbers, and their latest DSGE forecast is that she's

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:51.520
<v Speaker 1>wrong on growth but right on prices. They see growth

0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.240
<v Speaker 1>picking up throughout the rest of the year. But they

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 1>think the recent rise in inflation is temporary. Um. So uh,

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>for whatever faith you put in models, you have some

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:07.360
<v Speaker 1>support for either side of the equation. Um, how much

0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 1>faith do you have sure in the accuracy of bond

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:16.240
<v Speaker 1>prices or the the our square of bond prices to economy?

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>Right now, given the fact that everybody in the world

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:23.720
<v Speaker 1>puts is putting their money into the United States, which

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 1>is driving down bond yields, the fat is still buying

0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 1>tenure notes as part of its reinvestment plan. So is

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 1>there a real price on bonds at this point? How

0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 1>do you separate it out and say the economy is

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.960
<v Speaker 1>going to lead us to this? Very good questions, Mike.

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>I think when you're looking at the correlation between the

0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:48.600
<v Speaker 1>tenure yield and economic growth, think about it more like

0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:53.360
<v Speaker 1>a multiple regression. In other words, the yield depends not

0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>only on the growth rate, but also measures of liquidity,

0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.600
<v Speaker 1>measures of fought in confidence or lack of confit ins

0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.720
<v Speaker 1>in their own countries. So if you put those three

0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:07.560
<v Speaker 1>variables together, I think you're our squared would be significantly

0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>higher than if you just considered economic growth. Here and

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 1>regarding going toward one percent for the ten year yield,

0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 1>I was alone a couple of years ago when I

0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:21.440
<v Speaker 1>didn't agree that the ten year was going to go

0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:23.640
<v Speaker 1>to three percent three and a half percent, which was

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.560
<v Speaker 1>universally believed, and I said it was going down to

0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:31.640
<v Speaker 1>two percent, which seemed heretical at that time. Now it

0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.480
<v Speaker 1>has gone to one eighty, and I think you will

0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:37.720
<v Speaker 1>see that going below one fifty because nothing much has

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 1>changed since then. And again, going back to your own points,

0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:45.520
<v Speaker 1>the world is even more worried about leaving the money there.

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 1>The rest of the world, one to nine year German

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:54.240
<v Speaker 1>yields are negative or close to being negative. Why is

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.120
<v Speaker 1>the United States alone at one eighty two? It is

0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 1>just way too high to survive and I at that level,

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.560
<v Speaker 1>And that's one more reason why I see you going down.

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.199
<v Speaker 1>So if you want to boost your our squared you

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:09.359
<v Speaker 1>need much more explanatory powered on the right hand side

0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.400
<v Speaker 1>of the equation. Tom, we didn't get John Tucker's permission

0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 1>to do a math Monday, but I think we've gone

0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>down that. No, but it is high squared Tuesday tomorrow,

0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:21.119
<v Speaker 1>which will be permanently Well, come on, if you if

0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:24.480
<v Speaker 1>you keep it up, Tucker, we're doing crotosis three. If

0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 1>I look to your point in any kind of moving

0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 1>average of the ten year yield, it is out of

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.359
<v Speaker 1>a great moderation. Are we still in the great moderation?

0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, eighty years of just forty years rather of disinflation.

0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 1>You know I'm starting in roughly, And are we still

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.399
<v Speaker 1>within that trend? I think we are, Tom, And the

0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 1>reason we are continuing is because again we did not

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:52.359
<v Speaker 1>take the plunge. And Mike asked earlier why shouldn't the

0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:56.639
<v Speaker 1>Fed hike interest rates if they had not had seven

0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.520
<v Speaker 1>eight years of quee and zero interest rates, and if

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.400
<v Speaker 1>we had artent interest rates going up, let's say by

0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 1>two and quantitative easing had completely come to an end,

0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:10.800
<v Speaker 1>the stock market would have taken a connection, but you

0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:14.919
<v Speaker 1>would not given reading over the weekend on this equal

0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.919
<v Speaker 1>the basic idea here, we're trying to have a painless

0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:22.879
<v Speaker 1>clearing of market econ the Friedrich Kayak painless clearing of

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 1>the markets. Do you see that within your call of

0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:28.720
<v Speaker 1>a software economy or are there going to be a

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 1>lot of volatility and jump conditions, brutal moves. It's most

0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:35.080
<v Speaker 1>would put it is more the latter. I think you're

0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:37.320
<v Speaker 1>going to have a lot of volatility in terms of

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:41.440
<v Speaker 1>how the market moves. The softness of the economy doesn't

0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>mean you also have everything working well with you. Because

0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:49.400
<v Speaker 1>you have given or you have sacrificed economic growth. Therefore

0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 1>you're due to get other benefits. You have continued with

0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.280
<v Speaker 1>this inflation of the policies for the last seven or

0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 1>eight years, you have to pay the piper, and that

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:01.960
<v Speaker 1>mean at some point in time you have to have

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.359
<v Speaker 1>a massive connection. Shoot Camar thank you so much so

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.040
<v Speaker 1>when you'll put this chart out on Bloomberg Radio plus,

0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.920
<v Speaker 1>the one year moving average of the ten year yield

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 1>is two point zero seven and it has just rolled over,

0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.400
<v Speaker 1>ever so slightly, but a little bit of a rollover

0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:24.719
<v Speaker 1>in a more smooth approximation of the ten year ye

0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:28.000
<v Speaker 1>Michael John, Sylvia, it was far Ago saying, you know,

0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:34.680
<v Speaker 1>within the good debate of economics, Mars too cautious. He's

0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:40.359
<v Speaker 1>looking for two yield higher you okay, over there. I

0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:44.199
<v Speaker 1>stayed up to watch Game of Thrones, So watch the

0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:49.679
<v Speaker 1>hockey game exactly. You know. It was a game of Thrones,

0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:53.760
<v Speaker 1>hold or hold or was playing for the Tampa Bay

0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 1>Lightning something like that. Futures negative to town futures negative

0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 1>nineteen the yield street comers yield one point eight two.

0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:07.639
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