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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree A five dollars? This is a regal

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Speaker 2: lesson happy tackled kite. You're saying that humans need fantasy

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Speaker 2: to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be human.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, that's good.

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Speaker 3: I suppose it's the.

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Speaker 2: Best relentless refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, babe.

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Speaker 2: Let's there. What's up everybody?

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Speaker 4: And Welcome to the Super Bowl fifty six Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 4: Props Podcast, presented by Prize Picks. I am your host,

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Speaker 4: Chris Raybond, joined as always by my dude, Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 2: Sean, how are you feeling?

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Speaker 3: Feeling pretty good? Feeling pretty good, looking forward to just

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl week. Hopefully we can get together and party

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Speaker 3: at some point. I feel like we've just been recording

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Speaker 3: pods of working and stuff, but definitely excited for the

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Speaker 3: super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Man, I got pretty pretty with the week after.

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Speaker 4: You're here too, and it was much less painful because

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Speaker 4: I'm still recovering.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Yeah, we didn't.

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Speaker 4: So ever, since I ripped that money shirt, I've won

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Speaker 4: all of my spreads in totals. Oh yeah, so we're

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Speaker 4: going to throw it out, but I actually I found

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Speaker 4: out it was still sitting here in the hamper, ripped.

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Speaker 4: And I won those two bets last week. So I'm

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Speaker 4: keeping it as good luck for the Super.

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Speaker 3: Bowl, not recording that whole moment, because you know, there's

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Speaker 3: all those reaction videos for you know, everybody thinking the

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Speaker 3: Bills one of the chiefs flaws, and I think we

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Speaker 3: had the best one, you know, after Gabe Davis scored

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Speaker 3: that touchdown, you ripping your shirt off was probably the

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Speaker 3: best one, but it wasn't on tape.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe I'll upload a picture of the riped shirt

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Speaker 4: at some point and we'll see.

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Speaker 2: We'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, we have our We're gonna do our top

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Speaker 4: three props each for the Super Bowl on prize picks,

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Speaker 4: and we'll also do our lead entries, so you get

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Speaker 4: you'll still get your ten props, five from each of

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Speaker 4: us for Super Bowl fifty six.

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Speaker 2: Let's jump right into it, Sean, where you're going with

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Speaker 2: your first So.

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Speaker 3: I'm going with Joe Burrow over two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 3: five and a half passing yards. You know, I realize

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Speaker 3: this is a tough matchup against the Rams defense. I realized.

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Speaker 3: You know, this is Burrow's first Super Bowl, but he's

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Speaker 3: proven that he can handle the pressure. And you know

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Speaker 3: he might face a ton of pressure against this Rams

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Speaker 3: defensive line, but as we've said on previous pods, you

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Speaker 3: know that might only help him going over his passing total.

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Speaker 3: You know, if he gets sacked, it's only going to

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Speaker 3: back him up. It's only going to force them to

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Speaker 3: throw more. So I'm not too worried about that here.

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Speaker 3: And you know this, this could be a trailing game

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Speaker 3: script where you know, he's he's gone over this number

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Speaker 3: and four of their six losses, so I'm not worried.

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Speaker 3: If it's a trailing game script, that'll only help. So

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna lean on Joe Burrow this week,

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Speaker 3: especially after last week. You know they they ran mixing

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Speaker 3: a ton on first and second down. It didn't really work.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna put the game Burrow's hands here,

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Speaker 3: and I'm projecting this closer to to eighty two and

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Speaker 3: a half to love the value we're getting here on

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow over two hundred and sixty five and a

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Speaker 3: half passing yards.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think I think Burrow is going

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Speaker 4: to go over this either way, I do think they're

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Speaker 4: going to continue to run the ball on early downs

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Speaker 4: just because you have that rams front right right like so.

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Speaker 2: But the thing is, we saw Burrow in the game.

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Speaker 2: He got sacked what was it nine times? Still proof

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Speaker 2: of a cool like three fifteen or something like it

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Speaker 2: was the three sixteen.

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Speaker 3: He had headset problems. There was a whole drive where

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Speaker 3: he couldn't even hear the play call. He was gone

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Speaker 3: the line of scrimmage. There's five seconds left on the

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Speaker 3: play clock, and he was able to hit Higgins for

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Speaker 3: a twenty hour past or something. The guy just has

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Speaker 3: ice in his veins. I keep telling people Joe Burrow

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Speaker 3: is pretty good, but yeah, I think he's gonna prove

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Speaker 3: it here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I like that this number is and this number is

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Speaker 4: a little lower than you'll see at some of the

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Speaker 4: other markets. It's usually in the two seventies. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: take advantage on prize picks. For my first, I'm going

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Speaker 4: with Cooper Cup over eight receptions, And if you look

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Speaker 4: back at his season this year, he's been over eight

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Speaker 4: in eleven games. He's had exactly eight in one games,

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Speaker 4: and then he's been under eight in eight games, so

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Speaker 4: he has much better than I think a fifty to

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Speaker 4: fifty chance of going over this number. It's a huge number,

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Speaker 4: but you look at the last two postseason games, He's

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Speaker 4: had nine and eleven gone over in two out of

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Speaker 4: three in the postseason. So I think you're getting a

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Speaker 4: great value here for Cooper Cup. And you know, we

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Speaker 4: wipe him in a lot of different ways in this game.

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Speaker 4: But you know, looking at how the Bengals defended the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs in the second half, they dropped eight in the

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Speaker 4: coverage a lot.

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Speaker 2: Now do they do that again if they have to, maybe.

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Speaker 4: They go to it, But the fact that that's kind

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Speaker 4: of the Bengals ace in the hole. I think Cupp

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Speaker 4: is that one guy that you know, if you give

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Speaker 4: Stafford enough time, you're only rushing three. Even if there's

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Speaker 4: eight guys back there, Cooper Cup's going to be the

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Speaker 4: guy to get open. So even if the Bengals played

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Speaker 4: that really tough defense and step up in the second

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Speaker 4: half like they did, I still think Cupp has a

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Speaker 4: great chance to clear this number.

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Speaker 2: So Cup over eight perception.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this this might be a hot take, but Cooper

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Speaker 3: Cup is pretty good at football. That that goes with

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Speaker 3: my Joe Burrows pretty good at football hot take as well.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm surprised, especially with my over twenty eight

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Speaker 3: and a half, you know, his longest play going over

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Speaker 3: twenty eight and a half yards. I'm surprised we're getting

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Speaker 3: such good value on Cooper Cup overs. Like I thought

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Speaker 3: that we're gonna have to go in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: you know, attacking his unders. But thankfully we get to

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Speaker 3: bet get you know, with the grain with Cooper Cup

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Speaker 3: and bet on his overs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, prize because it's a little different because you

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Speaker 4: have to kind of you know, you're combining your entries,

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Speaker 4: so you have to have at least two, So, you know,

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Speaker 4: I think you're getting a little bit of better odds

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Speaker 4: because to kind of even it out for the fact

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Speaker 4: that you have to essentially parlay you know, combined to

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Speaker 4: it more.

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Speaker 3: And it correlates with almost any game script. You know,

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Speaker 3: even if the Rams, you know, win by twenty or

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Speaker 3: more or lose by twenty more. Cooper Cups overs correlate

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Speaker 3: with pretty much everything.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if Cooper Cup's in the game, it's going to

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Speaker 4: be producing is essentially what it is.

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Speaker 2: I will you go with which a second.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to t Higgins over five receptions, So I'm

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Speaker 3: projecting this, you know, colacher go to five and a

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Speaker 3: half and like I always say, every half reception in

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Speaker 3: this range is massive. So I love the fact that

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Speaker 3: we're getting over five. And like you just mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 3: we're we're sort of you know, parlaying them correlating. So

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Speaker 3: love pairing this up with Joe Burrow over two hundred

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Speaker 3: and five and a half passing yards. But you know,

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Speaker 3: T Higgins, he's gotten over this in eight fifteen games.

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Speaker 3: He had two pushes five receptions exactly, but he was

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Speaker 3: playing through an ankle injury earlier in the season, so

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Speaker 3: there were some games where he wasn't one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: plus you know, in you know, losing game scripts, trailing

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Speaker 3: game scripts. He only went under this once and six

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Speaker 3: Bengals losses. So in a game where you know, the

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Speaker 3: Bengals are plus four plus four and a half, it's

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Speaker 3: more likely that he sees a trailing game script. So

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Speaker 3: it makes me likely over even more. And as we said,

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Speaker 3: you know, Higgins tends to thrive against zone heavy defenses,

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Speaker 3: and Rams play zone at you know, a top three

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Speaker 3: rate the league, So this is a great matchup for Higgins.

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Speaker 3: Love over five and a half receptions, even though I'm

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Speaker 3: projecting it just a bit higher at five and a half,

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Speaker 3: it's just too much value to pass up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, T Higgins here, I mean, I think he's

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Speaker 4: the guy that we just love in this game. And

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Speaker 4: you know, I mean, worse comes the worst you should

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Speaker 4: get to push. If he gets exactly five, probably still

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Speaker 4: the most likely outcome. But yeah, I think it's definitely

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Speaker 4: skewed toward the over in this kind of game, and

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Speaker 4: there's gonna be a lot of attention on on Jamar

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Speaker 4: Chase as there should be, so yeah, T Higgins trying

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Speaker 4: to get exposure to him in a lot of different

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Speaker 4: ways this week. For my second I'll go with Joe

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Speaker 4: Mixon under five targets. So I know Mix has been

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Speaker 4: a little bit more involved in the past game as

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Speaker 4: of late, But again, I still think you have to

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Speaker 4: look at the season long numbers, and you also have

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Speaker 4: to keep in mind that I think a lot of

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Speaker 4: these numbers, these props are kind of from the point

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Speaker 4: of what the spread in total are, which is, you know,

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Speaker 4: four and a half point Rams, you know win, And

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Speaker 4: I don't know that the Rams should be favored by

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Speaker 4: quite that much so I think, you know, there could

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Speaker 4: be a little bit more of a positive game script

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Speaker 4: for mixed, and then we think which would benefit him

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Speaker 4: going under. But you look at mixing and the number

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Speaker 4: is five targets. He's only been over five in four games.

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Speaker 4: He's at exactly five and three games, and then he's

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Speaker 4: been under five and twelve games. So really you take

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Speaker 4: out the three games that he's had exactly five because

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Speaker 4: that's a push. So he's been over and four under

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Speaker 4: and twelve. That's a seventy five percent hit rate toward

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Speaker 4: the under. And I checked it in my model.

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Speaker 2: I have him for three point one catches for twenty four.

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Speaker 4: Yards three point five targets, so I have him like

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Speaker 4: over a full target under this number. I think at

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Speaker 4: like the most likely outcome should be four, Like I

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Speaker 4: don't think it's it's five with mixing, so and he

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Speaker 4: could catch all four of them, so it's like it

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Speaker 4: could be close to his receptions. But five targets is

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Speaker 4: a stretch seventy five percent hit rate on the season

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Speaker 4: in non pushes, So give me mixin under five targets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, first off, kudos to price Picks for even

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Speaker 3: offering like target market I've never been able to sort

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Speaker 3: of attack a target projection.

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Speaker 1: So it's awesome they're doing this. And I'm with you here.

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Speaker 1: I think five is a bit too hard. You went

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Speaker 1: through the numbers.

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Speaker 3: I think you know, even if he gets five, you're

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Speaker 3: going to get a push. I think it's way more

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Speaker 3: likely that he finishes with under five than he does over.

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Speaker 3: So I love the fact that you're going to push

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Speaker 3: at five. But you know, he there's a stretch there.

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Speaker 3: Week sixteen through week nineteen. You know he was running

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Speaker 3: a route on over sixty percent of burrows dropbacks, but

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Speaker 3: it's dipped down the past couple games closer to fifty percent.

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Speaker 3: They've been using p Ryan.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him, by the way, I have him

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Speaker 2: back up at that sixty percent.

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Speaker 3: I don't think you're still getting Yeah, I have at

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Speaker 3: fifty five. Yeah, and yeah, I have his targets closer

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Speaker 3: to four and a half. Like he said, he's probably

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Speaker 3: going to catch all his targets, so it's pretty close

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Speaker 3: to his actual receptions. But yeah, five is just in

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Speaker 3: this range, all these half yards, these half targets, he's

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Speaker 3: half or seven, like it all matters. So just getting

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Speaker 3: five and the fact that you get a push. If

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Speaker 3: he does get that is huge. So I'm with here

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Speaker 3: on the under five targets as well, right.

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Speaker 2: Where you're going for your third and final pro.

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Speaker 1: So I love this one.

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Speaker 3: But it's Jamar Chase over three and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a sneaky one because his season long

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Speaker 3: data certainly doesn't support this. But this is a Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl and they've shown, you know, each playoff game they've

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Speaker 3: given Chase a rush attempt, and against the Raiders in

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Speaker 3: the wild card round they gave him three carries and

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Speaker 3: he translates to twenty three yards. So I think this

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Speaker 3: is a spot where if they're struggling to get him

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Speaker 3: the ball through the air, you know, if Ramsey's shadowing him,

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Speaker 3: which I don't think is really going to happen, or

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Speaker 3: you know, they's just double teaming him, they're going to

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Speaker 3: give him the ball. So I think just with one

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Speaker 3: rush attempt, I would say this is a pretty fair number.

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Speaker 3: But I'm projecting him right around one point four rush attempts.

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Speaker 3: I think it's likely we see him get you know,

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Speaker 3: two carries here, and if that's the case, he's going

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Speaker 3: to go over this. So I just love the fact

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Speaker 3: that we have an out where he could see more

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Speaker 3: than one rush attempt. So I think if this line

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Speaker 3: we're at four and a half, I might like the under.

253
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Speaker 3: I think, you know, four is probably the correct line here,

254
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:12,719
Speaker 3: but the fact that we're getting three and a half,

255
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Speaker 3: there's there's just too much value here not to take

256
00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:16,920
Speaker 3: the over. So I love Jamar Chase over three and

257
00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:17,800
Speaker 3: a half rushing yards.

258
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I had a feeling that this would be when

259
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Speaker 4: that there would be some value here because I noticed

260
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Speaker 4: early in the week some spots it was three and

261
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,000
Speaker 4: a half and then it jumped up four and a half.

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Speaker 2: We're still getting a three and a half here at

263
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Speaker 2: Prize Fixing.

264
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,199
Speaker 4: You mentioned it on one of our earlier pods, like

265
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Speaker 4: that yard makes so much difference between like the four

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Speaker 4: and a half and a three and a half.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, at three and a.

268
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Speaker 4: Half, I think it's it's an over because I actually

269
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,640
Speaker 4: haven't projected for a little over one carry because of

270
00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:47,360
Speaker 4: how much his rushing usage has improved or gone up.

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Speaker 4: I should say in the postseason, and it's the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 4: you know, I think that again, they've had two weeks.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna have two weeks to plan for this, I

274
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Speaker 4: think they'll find a way to get Chase the ball

275
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Speaker 4: because you do have to worry about Ramsey, you know,

276
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Speaker 4: even if he hasn't done it much this year, you

277
00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:02,760
Speaker 4: still have to worry about it. So I think they're

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Speaker 4: going to have those plays, like, Okay, if Chase is

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00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,079
Speaker 4: not like involved in the game, or even if he is,

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Speaker 4: like we need to we need to have a few

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Speaker 4: guaranteed touches for him, So I wouldn't be surprised if

282
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,880
Speaker 4: he gets multiple what happens again, all right? For my

283
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,280
Speaker 4: third and final prop, it kind of correlated to my

284
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,319
Speaker 4: second one, but I went mixing under target, so I'm

285
00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:23,679
Speaker 4: going with him over sixteen and a half rush attempts.

286
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,439
Speaker 2: And again, this just comes back to the fact that

287
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Speaker 2: I think.

288
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Speaker 4: The spread is a little bit offlated at four and

289
00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,839
Speaker 4: a half, but I have mixing closer to eighteen and

290
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,520
Speaker 4: at half rush attempts. And he's been over this number

291
00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,200
Speaker 4: in twelve to nineteen games overall this season, including two

292
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Speaker 4: of three postseason games.

293
00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: And you look at the Rams, and you know last

294
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:45,080
Speaker 2: week against the.

295
00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,559
Speaker 4: Niners, Elijah Mitchell on we had eleven carries, So you

296
00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,920
Speaker 4: might say, okay, well that's not good for a guy

297
00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,000
Speaker 4: like Mixing, but remember Deebo Samuel also at seven Kyle

298
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:57,520
Speaker 4: Yustchek had one as well. And I think in this game,

299
00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,600
Speaker 4: you know, we've seen Chris Evans and samaj Ryan get

300
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,400
Speaker 4: three carries all posty, so I think this is a

301
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,959
Speaker 4: super Bowl. Wouldn't be surprised if Mixing gets every single

302
00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:10,120
Speaker 4: backfield carry as he should. So I think he even

303
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,800
Speaker 4: has a higher a little bit of a higher floor

304
00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:14,880
Speaker 4: than then the rest of the season when he's still

305
00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,400
Speaker 4: been over in twelve to nineteen. So give me Mixin

306
00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,199
Speaker 4: over sixteen and a half rush attempts.

307
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right in line with this.

308
00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,920
Speaker 3: I love the process too, where even if you use

309
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,400
Speaker 3: you know, the rams minus four, I'm projecting mix In

310
00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,760
Speaker 3: closer to eighteen rush attempts. But I'm projecting this game

311
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,960
Speaker 3: closer to minas three. So take either way, you're gonna

312
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,439
Speaker 3: get Mixing over. So I'm projecting mixed In closer to

313
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,240
Speaker 3: eighteen and a half. And yeah, they're probably not going

314
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,480
Speaker 3: to give sma J p Grand or Chris Evans a

315
00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,040
Speaker 3: carry if they can help it. If anybody else gets carry,

316
00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:47,640
Speaker 3: it's gonna be jamar K. So I think just the

317
00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,559
Speaker 3: fact that Mixing's you know, guaranteed to get you know,

318
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,280
Speaker 3: ninety percent of the rush attempt chare. I think this

319
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,680
Speaker 3: is a no brainer if if you do like the Bengals,

320
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:58,920
Speaker 3: if you think the you know, the the Rams are

321
00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:00,880
Speaker 3: going to blow him out like this as much. But

322
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,719
Speaker 3: I'm with you here thinking the Bengals are going to

323
00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,439
Speaker 3: cover the spread and love mixing over sixteen and a

324
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:06,000
Speaker 3: half carriers.

325
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,120
Speaker 2: And we have seen the Bengals kind of stick with it.

326
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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, even in the game against the Chiefs,

327
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,240
Speaker 4: you were kind of lamenting, like, hey, they did run

328
00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,559
Speaker 4: it a lot on early down. That's yeah, I think Als,

329
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:17,920
Speaker 4: But after that Titans game, you know, I think you're

330
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,480
Speaker 4: there's just gonna be a certain amount of early down running.

331
00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:22,120
Speaker 4: Like I think the Bengals will still probably come out

332
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:23,360
Speaker 4: in the first play of the game and pass. You know,

333
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,400
Speaker 4: we talked about that another Probably they've done that sixteen

334
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,080
Speaker 4: out of twenty times. But overall, I think they still

335
00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,320
Speaker 4: have to stick with the run game and you're getting, yeah,

336
00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,800
Speaker 4: you're getting some value here they if they do better

337
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 4: than the spread.

338
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, you just have to keep them honest.

339
00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,680
Speaker 3: You don't want you know, Donald Miller king off on

340
00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,960
Speaker 3: Burrows that they absolutely still have to run the ball

341
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 3: even if he's not being effected. That's why I think

342
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,720
Speaker 3: you're kind of with me and liking that the running

343
00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 3: backs to go under their rushing yard prop. Yeah, so

344
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,080
Speaker 3: this is better when when you're convinced the guys's gonna

345
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:51,400
Speaker 3: get volume, but you don't know if they're going to

346
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 3: be effective. That's that's typically Joe Mixon heading in this game.

347
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,320
Speaker 3: It's better just to attack their rushing attempt prop that

348
00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:01,000
Speaker 3: there's more control over you know that projection.

349
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a they're rushing yardage props. There's just not

350
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 2: as much value even on going under.

351
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:07,960
Speaker 4: Like I think they could both struggle, but you know,

352
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,880
Speaker 4: I also think this could just be a lower scoring

353
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 4: game where yeah, like you said, you have to keep

354
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,040
Speaker 4: you have to stick with running the ball.

355
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's why I'm going with the attempts.

356
00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:18,760
Speaker 4: Next up here in the Fantasy Flex is a segment

357
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 4: we call Elite Entries, where Sean and I dive into

358
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,160
Speaker 4: the Prize Picks app and compare our player projections.

359
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 2: To the props to build some entries. Sean, start us

360
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 2: off with your first Prize pick Leit entry for today.

361
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 3: So my first Elite entry is Cooper cup longest reception

362
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,200
Speaker 3: over twenty eight and a half yards. Actually it's as

363
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 3: long as play, so it could be a rush attempt,

364
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:42,760
Speaker 3: so that's a nice little out. But you know, this

365
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,840
Speaker 3: has been one of my favorite bets the past couple

366
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 3: of weeks. You know, I'm surprised we're getting value on

367
00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 3: at Cooper Cup over but I'm projecting him going over

368
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,560
Speaker 3: this sixty four percent of the time, and in fact,

369
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,480
Speaker 3: he's gone over this in seventy five percent of the

370
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 3: games this year.

371
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 1: So I love the value we're getting here.

372
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 3: And even though he's not really a deep threat, you

373
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 3: know he's gonna get eight to ten catches here, so

374
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 3: he has a lot of bites at the apple, and

375
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 3: he's so good after the catch. You know, he averages

376
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 3: six point four yard after the catch, so he can

377
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,240
Speaker 3: get it done in variety of ways. But you know

378
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 3: there's a reason why he's gone over this number quite

379
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,080
Speaker 3: a bit this year. It's because he's so good and

380
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 3: he gets the volume.

381
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 1: So love this. You know, we're getting over a sixty

382
00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,280
Speaker 1: hit rate on this. So Cooper Cup's.

383
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 2: Longest play over twenty eight and a half yards.

384
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,520
Speaker 1: Is one of my favorite plays for the Super Bowl.

385
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,400
Speaker 4: For my first I'm going Matthew Stafford under four and

386
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 4: a half rushing yards.

387
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of recency bias.

388
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 4: In this number because he's been over it in each

389
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,800
Speaker 4: of the three postseason games. But you look at the

390
00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 4: entire year, he's been at two yards or fewer in

391
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 4: thirteen of twenty games, or sixty five percent. Cincinnati allowed

392
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 4: the tenth fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season,

393
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 4: and over fifty percent of them came from just two quarterbacks,

394
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 4: so Mark jack ingestin field. So Matthew Stafford's median this

395
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:07,080
Speaker 4: year has been a happy yard rushing. So Stafford could

396
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,160
Speaker 4: get a scramble for five six seven yards. The rams

397
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,560
Speaker 4: are favored, so neil downs is still a possibility, a

398
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 4: very likely possibility for Stafford. So there's a lot of

399
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 4: ways for him to go under four and a half,

400
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,360
Speaker 4: which again he's done sixty five percent of the time.

401
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,679
Speaker 4: So that is my first prize pick Elite entry four

402
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,640
Speaker 4: today Stafford under four and a half rushing yards. Sel

403
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 4: where you going with your second prize pick Awit entry, So.

404
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 1: You know where I'm going with this.

405
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 3: My favorite punter prop and this is the only game

406
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 3: all season we get punter props. Is Kevin Huber longest

407
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,880
Speaker 3: gross punt over fifty two and a half yards. There's

408
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,919
Speaker 3: nothing gross about this, you know. I have a sixty

409
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,760
Speaker 3: two hit rate according to my sims on this prop,

410
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,119
Speaker 3: and he's got over this sixty five percent of the

411
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 3: time this year. So in a game where the market shows,

412
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:53,960
Speaker 3: you know, his over runners three and a half punts,

413
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,200
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna get one where he's gonna launch it.

414
00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 3: And one of my favorite things about this prop is

415
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 3: it correlates really with everything. So I'm going to have

416
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 3: this in quite a few bills on price picks. You know,

417
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 3: I would set this line closer to fifty four and

418
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,400
Speaker 3: a half fifty five and a half, and every single

419
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 3: yard matters, so love getting it fifty two and a half.

420
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:13,920
Speaker 1: I would take it up.

421
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 3: To fifty three and a half before stopping, So get

422
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 3: it fifty two and a half while you can't.

423
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 1: All right.

424
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 4: For my second prize pickleweed entry, I'm going with Cooper

425
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 4: Cup over one hundred and one and a half receiving yards.

426
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 4: This correlates well with your longest play over twenty eight

427
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 4: and a half because that'll probably come through the air.

428
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 4: But Cooper Cup has had one hundred and eight or

429
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 4: more receiving yards and thirteen of his twenty games sixty

430
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 4: five percent, including two of three postseason games, the last two,

431
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 4: by the way, which he had one hundred and forty

432
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 4: two and one hundred and eighty three. But more importantly

433
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 4: is just the season long numbers, you know, one hundred

434
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 4: and eight plus and thirteen of twenty. I have him

435
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 4: around one hundred and ten, So I think there's still

436
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,399
Speaker 4: a few yards on this of value on this. And

437
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 4: it also kind of correlates with Stafford under rushing as well,

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00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 4: because I think he's going to be able to stand

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00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:06,639
Speaker 4: in the pocket and Kuff is going to be that

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00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 4: guy that he's going to have to rely on as usual.

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00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 4: So love Cooper Cup over one hundred and one and

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00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 4: a half receiving yards.

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00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 1: That is going to do it.

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00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 4: For our prize pick a weight entry for today, Dreikott

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00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,640
Speaker 4: Sean is going with Cooper Cup longest reception over twenty

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00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 4: eight and a half yards and Kevin Youber longest punt

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00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 4: over fifty two and a half yards. I'm going Matthew

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00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 4: Stafford under four and a half rushing yards in Cooper

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00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 4: Cup over one hundred one and a half receiving yards.

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00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 4: As a reminder, price pick markets do move, so you

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00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 4: want to get on it fast in order to lock

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00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 4: in the best numbers. If you have not created a

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Speaker 4: prize pix account yet, check out the link in our

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Speaker 4: episode description and they'll match your first deposit up to

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Speaker 4: com and use a promo code Action ten. That's act

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00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 4: Ion one zero. All right, Now back to the show

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00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 4: that is going to do it For our Super Bowl

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00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 4: fifty six Props episode to recap, Shawn's going with Joe

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00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 4: Burrow over two hundred and sixty five and a half

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00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 4: passing yards, t Higgins over five receptions, and Jamar Chase

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00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 4: over three and a half rushing yards. I'm going with

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00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:19,120
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup over eight receptions, Joe Mixon under five targets,

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00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 4: and Mixing over sixteen and a half rushing attempts.

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Speaker 2: That is going to do it for the show. Be

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00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 2: sure to leive us a five star rating and review.

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00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,479
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for all

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Speaker 4: of our Super Bowl fifty six betting content and fantasy

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Speaker 4: six DFS, content, tools, models, and of course you can

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Speaker 4: follow Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker and

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00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 4: me at bris Raybond. You can also find us at

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00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 4: those same handles in the free award winning Action Network

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00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 4: app Enjoy the Super Bowl and let's get this money