1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 2 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: It is Thursday. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer 3 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,959 Speaker 1: of the Action Network. This is the day where me 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: and my companion, my compadre might BFF, Simon Hunter Professional 5 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: better go through the games that we pinpointed on Tuesday 6 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 1: from the NFL slate. When we narrowed it down and 7 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: we start to really hone in on what the five 8 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 1: games we love for NFL Week four are going to be. 9 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: We are thinking about how lines have moved, We are 10 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 1: thinking about the what the market is telling us. We 11 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: are thinking about injuries. We are reevaluating if anything has 12 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: made us change our mind. We are going to get 13 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: to all of that. We're going to get to survivor picks. 14 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: We're going to get to money line parlays. Reminder, I 15 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: will record my podcast with Colin cowherd uh later today. 16 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: He will give me his picks. I will give him 17 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: my reaction based on what Simon and I are discussing. 18 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 1: Another reminder, convince me Sunday mornings at Action Network HQ, 19 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: the fastest growing NFL pregame show in the world. You're 20 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: not gonna get fluff. You're not gonna get Hall of 21 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: famers talking about what they think about games and how 22 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: they felt. And you're not gonna get fluffy features. You're 23 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: gonna get me Simon, Chris Raybon, Sean Kerner talking about 24 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: the size that totals the props that we love. That's it. 25 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: It's stuff that moves the needle for you. Before we 26 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: get to the podcast, one more thing I want to say. 27 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: We are getting a lot of new listeners, and as 28 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: I've said the past few weeks, when the show starts. 29 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: Action Network we launched in January of eighteen. We are 30 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: a company completely focused on providing sports betting news, information analysis. 31 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: We have an app that goes deep with research and data. 32 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: You can track your picks, you can follow games in 33 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: real time, see how your bets are doing. We're getting 34 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: a lot of new listeners, like I said, and a 35 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: lot of people who are just discovering betting right and 36 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: so Simon and I we love the questions. We're getting 37 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: so many questions about what about this phrase? How do 38 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: I bet on this game? What is the model for 39 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: something like this? I'm new to betting. We try to 40 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: answer as many as we can. We are getting flooded 41 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: and Like I said, we freaking love it. Keep them coming. 42 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 1: We're going to keep answering as much as we can. 43 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: If you are new to betting, Action Network dot Com, 44 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: go to our how to bet page. There will be 45 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: a link in the episode description of this podcast. Matt Mitchell, 46 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 1: the producer, is going to put it in there. Go 47 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: to Action network dot Com. All the resources you need, 48 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: everything about educating you to to bet make smart decisions 49 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: is at Action network dot Com. Check it out. We're 50 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: also going to try to layer in some betting one 51 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: O one stuff that isn't too obtrusive, because this is 52 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: still a relatively hardcore betting pod cast, probably the best 53 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: betting podcast, smartest betting podcast, most influential betting podcast in 54 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: the known sports world. It's a lot to get through. Simon. 55 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: Let's say, your brother, you're such a professional chat especially 56 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: this week where you are rooting for a team that's 57 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: three quarterbacks. Uh Man, constant pro. You are consonant. That's 58 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: what I try to do. We're gonna get to that game. 59 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 1: I know we're gonna talk about the Bears and the lies. 60 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: The Bears at minus two and a half, that's going 61 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: to be ugly. One of the things. That's really fascinating, 62 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: Simon is you are a professional better You lived in 63 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: Vegas forever. When benning became legal, you moved to Jersey. Um, 64 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: you are connected at world. Your professional betting colleagues love 65 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: to call you after the Tuesday podcast and say, I 66 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: agree with you on this take. I don't agree with 67 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: you on this take. You're crazy. Sometimes it gets in 68 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: your head and makes you rethink things, and then you 69 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: influences what we do on Thursday. And then on Sunday 70 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: we got a new segment. I want to know sharp 71 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: calls it's Simon Hunter has gotten since Tuesday. Hello, who's there? 72 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 1: I'm talking. Usually these people call him up and they'll say, hey, 73 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: you're really missing here big on certain games. It's a 74 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: lot of agreement this week. I think a lot of 75 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: the guys love our picks this week. They love the Vikings. Um. 76 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: I had multiple guys reach out to me about that. 77 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: They love the Vikings, they love that number. And I 78 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 1: had a bunch of people reach out about the Jets. 79 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: The Jets might be the sharp trap of the week. 80 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: I think everyone's coming in on them so heavy, just 81 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: because the news has come out now that Julio and 82 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: a j Brown might not be playing because they both 83 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: have hamstring injuries, which again that greatly greatly benefits the 84 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: Jets team that now they don't only have to focus 85 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: on Derrick Henry. So like I think last week, the 86 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: most hate I got was just about our Buffalo pick. 87 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 1: A lot of professionals felt very strong and taking that 88 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,239 Speaker 1: seven and a half, the eight and a half number 89 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: with Washington, and I just couldn't do it. We luckily 90 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: stayed away altogether from that game, and I turned out 91 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: I was right. But what about Seattle? So that was 92 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,479 Speaker 1: my only hate. I really got pushed back from other professionals. 93 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: I think they're just really down the Seahawks. They think 94 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: this team is major, major issues where I just don't 95 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 1: see it that way. I think they you know, they 96 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: laid an egg against Tennessee, letting them come back when 97 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 1: they're up fifteen and the fourth quarter at home, and 98 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: then Minnesota was a scheduled loss. We talked about that. 99 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: There was no no world Zimmer is gonna lose three 100 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: straight games in his first game at home. So I 101 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: love the Seahawks. I love the Seahawks plus three, I'm 102 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 1: on their money line as well. It just have some pause, people, 103 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: This is gonna be probably one of the chalkiest dogs 104 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: of the week. Them and the Lines are the two 105 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: biggest chalky dogs. The Seahawks are of the bets on 106 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: Seattle right now. By the Way, Lions, some of the 107 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: tickets to on the Seahawks money line so chee as 108 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: they say in the Great Lakes, Oh geez, Like that's 109 00:05:58,120 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: what the Eagles were on Monday Night there, I think 110 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: the eighty five or eighty cent percent of the money 111 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: line bets, and we saw what happened there. Last week 112 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: was a really chalky week, Like we talked about that already. 113 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: A lot of the parlays, a lot of the teasers, 114 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: everything kind of hit. So I'm expecting a really, really weird, 115 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: wacky week. This stuck homing a week even though my 116 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 1: favorite teaser, I mean, it's the chalkiest teaser I'll do 117 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: all year, the Chiefs and the Buccaneers, but I just 118 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: can't see either of these teams losing their games. So 119 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: I've had a couple of people hit me up, not 120 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: my professionals, with people on Twitter saying all my friends 121 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: are betting the same thing. Even though I don't listen 122 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: to the show. Or whatever they're saying, and I just 123 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: said to them, I'm with them. It's it's chalky. But 124 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: in what world does Brady lose this game against the 125 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: Buccaneers And in what world does Andy Reid lose to 126 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: his formal team and lose three in a row. I 127 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,160 Speaker 1: just it's kind of like a perfect storm. These things 128 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: set up so nicely, where if the Chiefs were at 129 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: home against the Eagles, this line would probably be ten 130 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: or eleven. If the Buccaneers were home against the Patriots, 131 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: this line will probably be again tenor eleven. But it's 132 00:06:57,960 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: not they're at there on the roads. You're getting a 133 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: really discount on these lines. So I'm I'm all in 134 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: on these Chalky all these Chalky teasers. This week chat, Well, 135 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna get to some money line parlays as well. 136 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: Probably one of those pairings will be the Jets and 137 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: the Vikings. There are some pretty wicked money lines to 138 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: look at, and we're gonna get to it. I just 139 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: got a little distracted, I gotta say, because my fucking 140 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: kid is a month into college, as you know, at Drexel. 141 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: My wife and I texted him two days ago and said, hey, 142 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: let's jump on the phone. It's been a few days 143 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: since we spoke, didn't respond for forty eight hours. My 144 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: wife is like, what the funk is up with this kid? 145 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: We know he's alive, and because we're tracking him, I'm like, 146 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: where are you apps in you know, and our phones. 147 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: He just texted us and said I may be free 148 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: on Sunday. A child right, Just the other day he 149 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: came to the world and you you will wait. But 150 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: they were claims to catch and bills to pay. He 151 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: learned to well. It was the way, and he was 152 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: talking for a new and as it grew he'd say, 153 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be like you then, you know what, I'm 154 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: gonna be like you and the cats. What the funk, dude, 155 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: you're telling me you can't find time for five days 156 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: to talk to your parents. You know, a little taste 157 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: of freedom. Now they're a big time. This experimentum going 158 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: to college, of letting these children leave has gone completely 159 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: off the rails. I can't fucking believe this. My wife 160 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: was like so exciting, literally already gave it a heart emoji, like, 161 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: all right, we'll talk to you Sunday. And I didn't 162 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: want to respond while you and I are talking because 163 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: I want to concentrate on what you're saying. What I 164 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: want to say is, are you kidding me? Sunday? You'll 165 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: call us right now? Yeah, that's that's an unreal response. 166 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, these fucking kids. All right, let's get to it. 167 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 1: We got a whole bunch of games that we squared 168 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: that we were gonna want to carry over from the weekend. 169 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: Some of them from from from Tuesday. Some of them 170 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: still look really good. Some of them are looking better 171 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: than I thought they did before. Let's start with the 172 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,599 Speaker 1: Giants plus seven and a half versus the Saints. You 173 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 1: and I immediately pinpointed this game. On Tuesday. Stuckey and 174 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 1: Chris Raybun and the Action Network podcast UH went through 175 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 1: this game. They loved this game as well, and actually 176 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:27,599 Speaker 1: they loved it for a lot of the reasons that 177 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: you often love it, which was less about the system 178 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: plays that sometimes people look at and say, all right, 179 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: this team is so and so against the spread the 180 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: last eighteen years, but really about what they're seeing on 181 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: the field, specifically about the Saints. I am more convinced 182 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: ever that the Giants are the right side at plus 183 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: seven and a half. It's and that's the scary part. 184 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:52,719 Speaker 1: A lot of books have dropped down to seven. We 185 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: we want that seven and a half. We we need 186 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: that hook there. Um, it's an interesting game. A lot 187 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:00,719 Speaker 1: of people who also reach out to me about this 188 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: game about should we do this for our survivor pick 189 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 1: and just get the Saints out of the way. Um 190 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: that yeah, that's how I found I felt a little 191 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,319 Speaker 1: scared of this one. Um, I don't know if I 192 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: would do the Saints, just in the fact that Winston 193 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: is begging, begging to have him meltdown games. So a 194 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: little scary with this Giant defense, a couple of injuries 195 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: to that side of the ball. But we talked about it. Um, 196 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: the Giants just match up well with the Saints team. 197 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: Danny dimes, he just plays better on the road indoors 198 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: with Kwan. This is just a good matchup for this 199 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: Giants team. So if it's seven and a half is 200 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: our best five, I would take it, But at seven 201 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: it likely wouldn't make the cut for me. What about 202 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: seven just as a bet? Yeah, yeah, I would bet 203 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: at seven, even though again you've missed the best of number. 204 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 1: This thing open at nine and a half. Now it's 205 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: all the way down to seven the professionals coming. Have 206 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: you on it, because I'm not sure what the splits 207 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: are in action, but I saw yesterday I think it 208 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 1: was seventy seven per cent to the ticket split, so 209 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: or maybe that was the money split. So but definitely, 210 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: the Saints are a very public team, and the lines 211 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: moved against it. Where the money is coming in on 212 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: the Saints and the tickets are coming on the Saints 213 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: and the line's going against it, always scary if you're 214 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: a Saints backer. So that's giving me a little bit 215 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: more confidence with the Giants, knowing that a lot of 216 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: sharp money is coming in on the Giants. Yeah, it's 217 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: fifty pc. I'm glad you brought it up. Good good connection. 218 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: Way to way to pin the bets on the Saints. 219 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: Seventy percent of the money on the Giants. So it 220 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: is definitely a pros Joe's game. What's fascinating to me is, 221 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 1: you know, the Saints they beat up on the Packers. 222 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: We didn't really know what that was going to be. 223 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: That could have been an anomaly whatever, you know, and 224 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: then their game against New England was not impressive. Jamis 225 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: had a heave home blind. I'm going to throw it up, 226 00:11:57,280 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 1: got lucky touchdown, they got a pick six, Um, they 227 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: were outgained. This is a team that I think is 228 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: in trouble and not not in trouble. That's that's overstating it. 229 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: But it is a team that I think is as 230 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 1: good as their record reflects and his public perception reflects. 231 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: So yes, I agree with you. The Giants or will 232 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 1: continue to be one of the teams we look at. Um, 233 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:26,319 Speaker 1: I think they're going to have to end up being 234 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 1: in a money line parlay with somebody. Um, that's why 235 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: I wouldn't take the Saints in his Survivor I got, 236 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 1: I got a pretty good beat, and who I want 237 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:38,959 Speaker 1: our survivor team to be. Yeah, okay, we can talk 238 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: about that at the end. All right, here's an ugly 239 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:47,319 Speaker 1: one and you just mentioned it. Eagles plus seven and 240 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,599 Speaker 1: a half against the Chiefs. The Chiefs like, let me 241 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 1: just let me just set it up, let me set 242 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 1: it up. Okay, you talk a little bit about the 243 00:12:55,040 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: Chiefs and the teaser potential. They continue to not cover, 244 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: they continue to be overvalued, they continue to be a 245 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: team that is going to get public money. More so 246 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: this week when you're talking about an Eagles team that 247 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:18,839 Speaker 1: just got decimated by the Cowboys on Monday night. But 248 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: I don't want to take the Eagles here. I get it, 249 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: But as anyone listen to this, you have to take 250 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: if you have seven a half and your pickpools or whatever, 251 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 1: you have to take the Eagles. This is everything about 252 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: This is why we fade the Chiefs. They always get 253 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: back door. This is a typical backdoor game. They don't 254 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: have their run game to melt the clock away. Mahomes 255 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: is gonna be taking deep shots all night. So again, 256 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: if if this game is you know the Chiefs are 257 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: up twenty four to ten or one to ten, I 258 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: honestly will feel comfortable when her It has the ball. 259 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: I thinking I'll be able to get a back door. 260 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,679 Speaker 1: But well, this in our contest, maybe maybe we'll take 261 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: the week off because, like you just said, holy hell, 262 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: are the Chiefs overdue to cover a game one and 263 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: eleven eight? Yes, their last twelve they are so overdue. 264 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: So I've made all my money on fading them, especially 265 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: early on the season. I'm cool with taking a week 266 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:09,959 Speaker 1: off in our contest and not going against them. So 267 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: I will be on the Eagles, but I will not 268 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,199 Speaker 1: be Uh, I will not be putting this in our contest. 269 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: It's an interesting question about when when do the the 270 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: sort of patterns start to be things that you fade 271 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: versus things that you bank on. Last this year, I 272 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 1: read this. Brandon Anderson, one of the writers at Action, 273 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: does an amazing story every week. I love it to 274 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: become invalid, like I must read for me. It's sort 275 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: of his leans or bets for every single game. Sometimes 276 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: it's a pass, sometimes it's a it's a bet. Sometimes 277 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: it's a wait until the number moves, which the market 278 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: is showing it may. He made a note at the 279 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: top of the columns week that, uh, sure underdogs are 280 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: eleven of three or more so three or less are 281 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: eleven and five against the spread this year, and they've 282 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: one outright in all eleven games. So like the Chiefs 283 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: not covering. Ever, like short underdogs continuing to cover and win, 284 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: when do we start fading patterns like that? M I 285 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: mean I I again, that's because the line movement like 286 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: UM last week and we're on the Saints. The Saints 287 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: got beat down from three and a half to two 288 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: and a half, so they fit that description. UM. The 289 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: Vikings fit that description. Last week the Rams do. So yeah, 290 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: it's it's all dependent on the game. Um, for this game, 291 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: I wouldn't put too much into that. Again, we're gonna 292 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: talk about coming up. That's more of like the Tennessee 293 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: Jets thing where I'm looking at where this line's moved 294 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: so much that this team is so overvalued. Um, you're 295 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: getting good value on the Jets. Where the Eagles, this 296 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: line feels fair. Syrianny might be an awful head coach 297 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: and Jalen Hurts might be a bad quarterback, so the 298 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: movement on this line feels very fair to this Eagles team, 299 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: where this is a must win, a must win for 300 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: a Chiefs team that I've been to three straight or 301 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: two straight Super Bowl. So it's Um, it's not so 302 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: much I'm fading the trend like I am betting the Eagles, 303 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: But like we talked about, I have a lot of 304 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: money invest in the Chiefs and the money line and teasers, 305 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: so I'm I'm a big believer that Chiefs gotta win 306 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 1: this this Sunday, all Right, Panthers plus four and a 307 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: half against the Cowboys. This was our Simon says, bet 308 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: like the Bengals the week before on Tuesday, you. Simon 309 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: says this, which means that we must bet it. I 310 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 1: did bet it at four and a half. I also 311 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: bet a little bit of a taste half a unit 312 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: on the Panther's money line. Um, the Panthers secondary is decimated, 313 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey isn't playing on the field. That makes me nervous. 314 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: As a system M I feel great about it. I 315 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: think I think I looked it up in bet Labs, 316 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 1: which is like the superpowered database that Action Network has 317 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 1: that has data points for millions and millions of betting 318 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 1: data points going back to two thousand and three, underdogs 319 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: and underdogs against the team that just played in Monday 320 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: Night Football. We at clip since two thousand three. So 321 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: like the precedent and the side feel right for Caroline. 322 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 1: I'm a little worried about our pick though. Yeah. Um again, 323 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: Chad to talk about bet Labs, that's one of my 324 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: favorite like companies that Action bought and own and give 325 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: out data from. So it's worth if you buy the 326 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: subscription to Action Network, you get bet Labs, which again 327 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: I think it's worth the money. It's it's just such 328 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: a useful tool, especially if you're into trends. UM I 329 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 1: love it. This one is interesting. Where we talked about 330 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 1: four and a half, I'm seeing it down to three 331 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 1: and a half of a lot of books. Um, I 332 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: know it's still plus four fandel, which is a great, 333 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: great value to pro pro game. You you you fade 334 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 1: the Cowboys off a big primetime win, a prime time blowout, 335 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: which is even more. Um, I mean just look at 336 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: the splits here. I think it's about seventy. The money 337 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: is on right now on the We're sorry tickets is 338 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. It's just gonna be a public game. 339 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: The public is gonna be feeling good. They want a 340 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: lot of money on the Cowboys. Last week, We're gonna 341 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 1: come and heavy on them again, Carolina, Like you just said, 342 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 1: they have a lot of injuries. Um, they actually just 343 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: made a trade for a cornerback from the Jaguar. So 344 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: you know, I uh, I just love this number and 345 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 1: I love the under in this game because it just 346 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: feels like both these defenses are a little underrated. And 347 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 1: again I think Doc is playing great, playing out of 348 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: his mind. That old line does have some major issues. 349 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: And when we saw that sack in the end zone 350 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 1: last week, um, they obviously bounced back from because Eagles 351 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 1: really clear your pressure the rest of the game. But 352 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 1: that's Carolina d line, and you know secondary is much 353 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: better than the Eagles. So I just think this is 354 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 1: a great value and bounce back spot for anyone that 355 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: wants to favor the Cowboys because Cowboys are good, but 356 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: against a team right now that's undefeated, this just feels 357 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: like a lot of points for the Cowboys to be 358 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: favored by. So we'll take that hook with the three 359 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: and a half four. Yeah, I think that the other 360 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: things that go in the Panther's favorite they're very well coached. 361 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: They are a better coach team than the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy, 362 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,479 Speaker 1: you can put this team, give make this an eleven 363 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 1: twelve win team this year. You're still not going to 364 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: convince me. He's a very good coach. Um. And you 365 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: said it about the Panthers defense. A couple of things 366 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: that I looked up myself because Thursday mornings are my 367 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: big pod prep day. Carolina Panthers fewest rushing yards per 368 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: carry allowed, fourth fewest passing your it's pretem allowed. What 369 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 1: that tells me is that they are putting teams in 370 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:11,400 Speaker 1: second and long, third and long scenarios, which keeps them 371 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: in games, gets them possessions, ah and puts them in 372 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: sort of an advantageous positions. Now they and they play 373 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: a unique style of defense where the guy brought the 374 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 1: college scheme up to the NFL that's not really used 375 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: by many DC coordinators and it's pretty much like a 376 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: a wide three front, but it's not. And it's just 377 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: one of these where they they kind of maga, looks 378 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: like there's big holes are run through and then they 379 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 1: just eat it up with their fast linebackers. So I 380 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: think it'll be a long day for the running backs 381 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: of the Cowboys. I think we love the Panthers and 382 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 1: the Giants right now. Yeah, I mean it's it's it's 383 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: a hypercentage. I'm at both their money lines and a 384 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: round robin. Yeah, all right, the Vikings on Tuesday. This 385 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 1: is a big move on Tuesday. This game was a 386 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 1: two and a half. You mentioned off the top, a 387 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: lot of wise guys calling you right now about this game. 388 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: The line has moved. Uh, let's see maybe a point. 389 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 1: Maybe it's gone down in one and a half in 390 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: some places. Um, why do people like the Vikings so 391 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: much here? I think a lot of people just think 392 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: the Bears are overvalued. I mean, not the Bears. The 393 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: Cleveland's are revalued now that they beat the Bears in 394 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: Houston and back to back weeks at home. And the 395 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: Vikings have just had a really tough schedule to start 396 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: the year. I mean, they literally played in Cincinnati, and 397 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,199 Speaker 1: you know, we can say what we want about that game. 398 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: They didn't really wake up till the fourth quarter, and 399 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: they came away back to force overtime, lost on the 400 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: last play on a missfield goal against the Cardinals, and 401 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: they came home they just beat up, you know, the Seahawks, 402 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: And you know, I I do like this Cleveland team 403 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 1: for sure. We talked about how we we really thought 404 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: their defense has improved, but man, when they played Houston, 405 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: Houston was running the ball all over Cleveland. I mean 406 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 1: they were literally dominated on Houston. So we gotta even 407 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: better run skiing team here in Minnesota with better talent. 408 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: I believe Dalvin cooked me back for this game as well. 409 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: Cleveland's now out their top cornerback and they're playing against 410 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: Adam Feeland and Jefferson. I told people on Tuesday, you 411 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 1: put Vikings in every teaser and you're gonna have a 412 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 1: bet the snumber. So this is a one of the 413 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: few I guarantee will be one of our five. Well, well, 414 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: we're guaranteed right now three games or guaranteeing the Giants, 415 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 1: the Panthers, and the Vikings. Well, the Giants on guarantee 416 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I don't know if it 417 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: is yet, but at seven I wouldn't wouldn't lock that 418 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: one in. Alright, all right, all right, by the way, 419 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: on the other communication happening right now, um, my wife 420 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: is just completely uh gone mush on my kid. She 421 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: just asked him if he was happy, if he was 422 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,239 Speaker 1: still happy. He said yea. She said, does that mean 423 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: you don't want to come home and snuggle us? He 424 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 1: just wrote back, I don't think so. So she's giving 425 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 1: up all authority and all power in this negotiation. And 426 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to come in after this podcast and 427 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: like laid down the law and be like fuck her. 428 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 1: We're talking in five minutes. The mother's love man, that 429 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: the bird has left the nest, that's what she She 430 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: just can't help herself. Jesus Christ. I'm losing all control 431 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 1: over here. And now a word from our friends at 432 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: FanDuel after twenty years on the same sideline. Tom Brady 433 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: and Bill Belichick meet this weekend as opponents. 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Visit one eight hundred gambler 459 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: dot nets in West Virginia, or call one eight hundred 460 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: next step or text next step to five three three 461 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 1: four two in Arizona. Let's get back to it. Can 462 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: we talk about the Chicago Bears. Things have gone off 463 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: the rails. They're like they have really number one Number one. 464 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: The team has bought a plot of land in the 465 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: town of Arlington Heights, not too far from where I 466 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: grew up. I grew up in Highland Park. Arlington Heights 467 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,239 Speaker 1: is west of Highland Park. UH in college, A lot 468 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: of my buddies grew up in Arlington Heights. Lived with 469 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: a buddy from Arlington Heights that's in the suburbs. It's 470 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 1: not downtown Soldier Field. The Bears been planned there since 471 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 1: n They've always been in downtown team the picturesque views 472 00:25:54,920 --> 00:26:00,360 Speaker 1: television skyline behind Soldier Field. It's amazing. The team a move. 473 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 1: The team has a coach that everyone seems to have 474 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 1: lost faith in. The meme that I have gotten seventy 475 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: five times from my buddy Matt to my kid in 476 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 1: the middle of high school. By the way he's sending 477 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 1: me meme, So what does that tell you about how 478 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 1: much he's paying attention in school? But whatever, sending me 479 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 1: a meme that basically says Mitch Chubisky should be in 480 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame because of how well he did 481 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 1: with his team in spite of that, Naggy. And yet 482 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 1: I know we're gonna want to bet in the Bears 483 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: at minus two and a half this week. I am, 484 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: but because everything you just talked about, I've actually pulled 485 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: back a little where I'm not I was gonna bet 486 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 1: a lot, especially the way this line was moving down 487 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 1: from three to minus two and a half. They might 488 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 1: be the most dramatic, drama filled team right now in 489 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 1: the NFL. Um Naggy kind of was weird. At the 490 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: press conference, wouldn't say if he gave up um coaching 491 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 1: duties to like his offensive coordinator. He wouldn't name a quarterback, 492 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: even though Fields has a cast or a brace on 493 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: his stand like on his hand or his thumb. And 494 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,639 Speaker 1: Andy Dalton he just came back to practice. So it 495 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 1: seems like, um, it might end up being Nick Foles 496 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,400 Speaker 1: against behind that old line. It's a little terrifying. UM, 497 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,719 Speaker 1: I don't know what to do, Chad. I felt really 498 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: confident about this team on Tuesday because it was gonna 499 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: get a really nice number with this defense at home. 500 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 1: But this team might already lost faith in their head 501 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: coach and uh that that's a scary position of being 502 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 1: where Detroit. There's a few teams that try harder that no, 503 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 1: they're not good, and that's what's so scary about this matchup. 504 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 1: It's UM, I thought this was gonna be a really 505 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 1: nice spot for Chicago, especially after the way Detroit just lost. 506 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: But it's giving me pause now. So I am on 507 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 1: the Bears, but this will not be one of our five. 508 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: There's no no chances will be one of our Now, 509 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,119 Speaker 1: I agree with you. This Detroit team look and we 510 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday. We made a lot of 511 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: fun of Dan Campbell for the budding of the knee caps. 512 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,159 Speaker 1: So this team, Detroit, We're gonna kick you in the 513 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 1: teeth and when you punch this, we're gonna smile at you. 514 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: And when you knock us down, we're gonna get up, 515 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,400 Speaker 1: and on the way up, we're gonna buy the knee 516 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 1: cap off. All right, We're gonna your other need cop 517 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: before long. Were they're going to be the last one standing. 518 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: We made a lot of fun of Jared Goff for 519 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 1: saying why not us? The truth is this team plays 520 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 1: like they believe and it's hard to knock that they're 521 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 1: really a a bad half against the Niners and a 522 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:26,719 Speaker 1: bad half against the Packers. That's what people were potentially 523 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 1: remembering when they were against them against the Ravens last week. 524 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: I wasn't. Somebody else was, Um, it's hard to knock 525 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 1: this team right now, which might be exactly why you 526 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 1: bit the Bears. Basically, it's like this will never even 527 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 1: more love from for the lines in the public eye 528 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: than right now. So I think that's why I would 529 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 1: have to pass on this game entirely. Yeah, Um, all right, 530 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: then we got to talk about this is the game 531 00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: that's lighting everybody up. The Jets plus seven plus seven 532 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: and a half against the Titans. A lot of reasons 533 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 1: to like the Jets. There are public perception reasons to 534 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: like the Jets. There are on field injury reasons to 535 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: like the Jets. There is over inflation. Um, give me 536 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 1: whatever you want, but I'm telling you right now, I've 537 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: already bet the Jets. I've already bet the Jets on 538 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 1: the money line. I've already got a Jets Panthers money 539 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: line parlay going. I'll be a nice pay day, fatheads. Yeah, 540 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: people got a little weird or a little testy about 541 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: last week. I was joking around people. If I tell 542 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 1: you a better game, there is always a reason. I'm 543 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: not just saying it to say, uh we we like 544 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 1: this matchup for plenty of reasons. But the biggest one 545 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: is what happened last year. The Browns came to play. 546 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,239 Speaker 1: The Jets were even worse and worst coach last year, 547 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 1: and they had no wide receivers. And we're looking at 548 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: the same exact position he with Tennessee. Tennessee is gonna 549 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 1: be without a j Brown and they're gonna be without 550 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 1: Julio their top two receivers. Again, I like Derrick Henry obviously, 551 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 1: this guy is by far the best running back in football. 552 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 1: But now it's given the Jets and edge where it's okay, okay, 553 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 1: now we just had to take away the run and 554 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 1: we'll just let Tannehill beat us with all these backups. 555 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,800 Speaker 1: And I don't know if you watched Tanno this year. 556 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: He doesn't look good, he doesn't look right, and uh, 557 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: this is too many points for a team. Again, it 558 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: was what the look at was three and a half, 559 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: I believe, and now it's all it was on all 560 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 1: of the seven and a half. The Jets are bad, 561 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: um and I know they just lost their safety to 562 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 1: another major, major injury. But at the same time, this 563 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 1: Jets team has a lot of good their Their defense 564 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 1: is actually better than people think it is. Zack Wilson 565 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: has been playing sloppy and made mistakes, but he's not 566 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 1: gonna keep laying this bad and he can't. Honestly, he 567 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 1: cannot stay this bad. He has to improve. So just 568 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 1: based off all of this with the Tennessee's horrible defense, 569 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 1: this is by far the easiest defensive Jets have played 570 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: this season. We have to take the Jets here. We 571 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,040 Speaker 1: had to take a seven and a half every on 572 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 1: You take this number, um, such a trap game for 573 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: Tennessee to uh. It's It's rare when you get a 574 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: team that just beats their their division rival so big, 575 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 1: like they did last week where they knew they kind 576 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 1: of got away with one of the colts there last week. 577 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: Now they're feeling really good all week traveling up to 578 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 1: New York playing a team. I don't think they're gonna 579 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: take serious in the Jets because they have got awful 580 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 1: and we're getting a great number. Um, unless we have 581 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 1: a meltdown like we did last week with the Jaguars. 582 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,080 Speaker 1: You take this number every time and you're gonna cover 583 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 1: most of the time. So like you just said, I 584 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: will be betting the Jets, I'll be taking the Jets 585 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: money line. Nothing's changed. If anything, I'm upset. I thought 586 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: I wasn't got the eight for us, but the pros 587 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 1: have coming now. I hit it down to seven. So 588 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: still would take the seven people. But if you can 589 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: find a book with seven and a half, you take 590 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,560 Speaker 1: that seven and a half. This is essentially a buying 591 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 1: at the bottom of the market opportunity That's that's what 592 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 1: we're doing. The very bottom, the very bottom until the 593 00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 1: Jets get blown out this week and next week will 594 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 1: be the very very bottom for the New York Jets. 595 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,719 Speaker 1: But it's like them, the Eagles and the Patriots are 596 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: They're all these teams that are gonna be getting you know, 597 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 1: no money bet on them this week. The bookmakers know 598 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 1: at least one of these guys are gonna win out 599 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 1: right like this, just this is how the NFL works. 600 00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: Something weird is gonna happen again, nothing makes sense in 601 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 1: the sport, Like we talk all the time. My favorite 602 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,920 Speaker 1: stat last year was the Colts that week won against 603 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 1: the Jaguars. They never punted and they had zero turnovers 604 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: and they still lost the game against the Jaguars. So 605 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 1: it's like weird chips just gonna happen. It's just that's 606 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 1: how football is. And that's what we're banking on here 607 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,720 Speaker 1: where too much, too much value is being blown up 608 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 1: on a team to move at four points where the 609 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,480 Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans shouldn't have moved that line four points off 610 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 1: there win last week. So that's why we we do 611 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: a value big job. It's it makes you feel a 612 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 1: little less guilty when you feel like an idiot bet 613 00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,000 Speaker 1: on the Jaguars last week. That's how I feel with 614 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 1: the Justice week. It's a professional line. You have to 615 00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: bet this number every time. By the way, team getting 616 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 1: the most money by far the bucks. They're like of 617 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,160 Speaker 1: the tickets right now coming in on the bus of 618 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 1: the money. Which is why that's an interesting game because 619 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,720 Speaker 1: it opened at five and we're skipping ahead. We're not 620 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: gonna we're not gonna have this game in our contest 621 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 1: and we're not going to bet it. We're not gonna 622 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,959 Speaker 1: include it. It's only moved up to seven. Like, can 623 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 1: you explain a little bit about why you think with 624 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:33,160 Speaker 1: everything that's happening, all these sentiments on the bus, like 625 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 1: the lines only moved about a point and a half 626 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 1: and someone got fired for that for that line we 627 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 1: hung at five and a half. That was an awful, 628 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: awful line to hang because even the professionals hammered that 629 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,360 Speaker 1: line Sunday night, Like I told you, I threw that 630 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: in all my teasers, um them and the chiefs. That 631 00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: was just a bad number. So seven, I told people, 632 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 1: I I'm going to take the pictures at the seven, 633 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: seven and a half, whatever number they end up that 634 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: I will be taking that Sunday night. Um, because just 635 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 1: the simple factor Bucks secondary just isn't good enough to 636 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: really close these games out. I know they did with Atlanta. 637 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 1: Those are two picks six. Is that really ended that game? Um? 638 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 1: I just think the Buccaneers were the way they're constructed 639 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 1: right now, You're always gonna have a little bit of 640 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 1: hope for a backdoor team, but we're they're like you 641 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 1: just said, there's no chance for putting this in. Um, 642 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: this is just a professional game where if I had 643 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:26,960 Speaker 1: this line at six and a half, I have to 644 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: bet it now that it's at seven. So not uh, 645 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:36,120 Speaker 1: not one of my five best. But it's uh, it 646 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,279 Speaker 1: feels like a gift, I should say, from the from 647 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 1: the sports books, and it's rare they give gifts. Usually 648 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 1: a gift ends up being a trap. But no one, 649 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think any fan in the world 650 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,839 Speaker 1: can see Brady losing this game, especially the talent discrepancy 651 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,320 Speaker 1: where Bell Belichick you can say all we want that 652 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,960 Speaker 1: this guy is such a great coach. He hasn't really 653 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 1: done much since Tommy's left, and this year people are 654 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 1: really hyping up this Patriots team taking their over win 655 00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 1: tolls and all this other stuff. This just looks like 656 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,400 Speaker 1: a team that doesn't really have that much talent. So 657 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 1: for me, it feels pretty comfortable having the Buccaneers and 658 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 1: a lot of money line parlays and teasers, where normally 659 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:09,799 Speaker 1: I'd be scared of this kind of game where it's 660 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 1: like this is a major trap. But Brady breaks all 661 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: the rules, and we've talked about that all the time. 662 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,520 Speaker 1: This man always breaks these rules. So I feel a 663 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 1: little piece of mind. You're taking the Buccaneers money law. 664 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,759 Speaker 1: What do you mean someone got fired for hanging a 665 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 1: five and a half a bookmaker some somewhere somewhere in 666 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 1: the mountains of Switzerland where I think that I got 667 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: got fired because that was a bad line? Five and 668 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 1: a half? Like, how did they not know the public 669 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,759 Speaker 1: was gonna hammer this line? So that was a bad 670 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,680 Speaker 1: number to hang? All right? Another game we wrote down 671 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:48,320 Speaker 1: Steelers Packers, Steelers is big dogs. Rob Ron Mike what 672 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:53,800 Speaker 1: Rober Mike ra Ra Mike Tomlin spot win the game? 673 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: When this cruel bodies right here today, game to day? 674 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,279 Speaker 1: How do we not go every Listen, listen, I know 675 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,359 Speaker 1: you laugh at the systems, but I'm telling you right now, 676 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,919 Speaker 1: I did listen to Stucky and Raybon in the Action 677 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:15,160 Speaker 1: Network podcast this morning, and I knew I listened specifically 678 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 1: for this game because of I knew this game was 679 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 1: on our list. Let me give you some stats that 680 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,040 Speaker 1: they rattled off. So I'm blatantly stealing here, but it's 681 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 1: a raw Rod Mike moment. I don't want to hear 682 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,520 Speaker 1: about the labor page man deliver the damn baby. Since 683 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:36,239 Speaker 1: two thousand three, as a road dog against winnings team 684 00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,320 Speaker 1: winning teams, no coach has covered more than Mike Tomlin 685 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 1: as a road dog period. He's one outright at a 686 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,680 Speaker 1: sixty clip. As a road dog against opponents with the 687 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,840 Speaker 1: same record or better, he covers it an eight percent 688 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 1: clip plus. You say yourself, this game should be like 689 00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:02,200 Speaker 1: four and a half. So how are we not loving 690 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:06,920 Speaker 1: the Steelers this week? I know, honestly, it's only because 691 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 1: we have other ugly dogs that we like better. But again, 692 00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,279 Speaker 1: this is a pro game. People like Chad. Just read 693 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 1: you all those stats. You bet This is why you 694 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,800 Speaker 1: always bet it. You have to go. You have to 695 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 1: think long term investment, and that's what this is. Let's 696 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:23,160 Speaker 1: a long term investment. But Roethlisberg is terrible, their defense 697 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,959 Speaker 1: is banged up, and Rodgers playing out of his mind. 698 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,839 Speaker 1: Uh again, they're not going to cover the spread. It's 699 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 1: just doesn't make sense. That's why I love betting football, 700 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 1: Like I can see these lines like you just you 701 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,400 Speaker 1: just talked about it. It's the minute I saw this line, 702 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:38,919 Speaker 1: I knew I was gonna go on Pittsburgh just because 703 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 1: it was inflated so much. Those those statue just read 704 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,400 Speaker 1: makes me feel so much more comfortable. Where it's like 705 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 1: Tomlin loves these positions, he loves getting the guys up 706 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,239 Speaker 1: for these kind of games. So I like it way 707 00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,759 Speaker 1: better at seven. That's the reason we probably wouldn't end 708 00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 1: up with it are five because it's down to six 709 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,279 Speaker 1: and a half, which six and a half is still 710 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,600 Speaker 1: like key number. Um this sextra points weird numbers two 711 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,319 Speaker 1: because teams usually go for two out more often than 712 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,600 Speaker 1: you used to do. So we we liked the six 713 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 1: and a half, but it's our best five. I don't know, 714 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,800 Speaker 1: it's it's it's a little scary where it's like, Okay, 715 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 1: come Sunday, I know, I mean, you're gonna be all right, 716 00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:13,120 Speaker 1: what are we doing? Steelers are the Jets, and we're 717 00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,200 Speaker 1: going to pick one of these ugly dogs, So it's 718 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,480 Speaker 1: it usually gives me more comfort taking the home dog 719 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 1: in this kind of situation. Me too, Me too. And 720 00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,959 Speaker 1: I know on Sunday, consciously, I'm going to be thinking 721 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 1: what are the games we're missing? What are the games 722 00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,760 Speaker 1: we're missing? I'm gonna forget about it, and then Sunday, 723 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 1: at about three thirty, I will text you and I 724 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,719 Speaker 1: will say, how the fuck did we not put this 725 00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,120 Speaker 1: in the five? We liked it on Tuesday, we talked 726 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 1: about it on Thursday, and Sunday morning we race through it. 727 00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,400 Speaker 1: After we do convince me, I will call you. We 728 00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,920 Speaker 1: will go through our five, and we will forget a 729 00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,440 Speaker 1: game that we loved. I don't know how we do 730 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,839 Speaker 1: this every single fucking week. We do this. All right, 731 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,000 Speaker 1: We're still going to be on the Steelers as a bet. 732 00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna take a little bit of Steelers money line. 733 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,160 Speaker 1: They will probably be in the money line parlay. No, 734 00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 1: I'm not. I would not recommend that. You're not. You're 735 00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 1: giving me a look, I'm taking it out. It's not 736 00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,759 Speaker 1: gonna happen. It's a cover game. This I just don't 737 00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 1: see a situation where they can win this one. Rob 738 00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,560 Speaker 1: rob Mike. It's rob Ron Mike. That's how they're gonna win, 739 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,800 Speaker 1: because rob Ron Mike doesn't more than anybody else in 740 00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,680 Speaker 1: the history of football. Uh, are we still thinking about 741 00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 1: the Broncos that line? That line um has moved. We 742 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:29,400 Speaker 1: thought that line. Uh, you can get either team depending 743 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 1: on the book, as an underdog right now. So what 744 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 1: are we thinking? Big balls better the week, Chad, Big 745 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:44,719 Speaker 1: balls better the week? Yeah, apparently the public does not 746 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,279 Speaker 1: care that Lamar might be kind of hurt and the 747 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 1: Ravens are missing a ton of key positions because they're 748 00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:51,880 Speaker 1: coming in heavy on them. We're kind of on an 749 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,480 Speaker 1: island here. This is when the other games. A lot 750 00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 1: of professionals reached out to me about they love We 751 00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,719 Speaker 1: all love Denver. We all love them a mile high 752 00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,000 Speaker 1: the same reason last week we talked about it. I 753 00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,640 Speaker 1: I like Denver even though they're minus ten. It's just 754 00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:05,839 Speaker 1: amouth high effect. They always play better at home. That's 755 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,560 Speaker 1: just a big advantage where you get one big play 756 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 1: from the other team and they're sucking oxygen on the sideline. 757 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,520 Speaker 1: So we love Denver. This is just a great matchup 758 00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,440 Speaker 1: for them. Their their D line is a perfect D 759 00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 1: line to take down Lamar and his running style. Um, 760 00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:21,640 Speaker 1: maybe the only guy on that D line he can 761 00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 1: outrun his von Miller, but probably not bond Miller still 762 00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:28,120 Speaker 1: got it. So I just like the matchup in you know, 763 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 1: like Chad said, we were hoping to get Denver as 764 00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,239 Speaker 1: a dog here. I don't think it's gonna move that 765 00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 1: way for us, but I think too many professionals are 766 00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,600 Speaker 1: coming in on Denver. But well, we'll take the number. 767 00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 1: I just want to have them in teasers because I 768 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,600 Speaker 1: don't really like crossing the zero. Sometimes I will, but 769 00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,640 Speaker 1: in this situation, I feel like you either just take 770 00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,680 Speaker 1: them the one straight up or you stay away. Alright, 771 00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:49,960 Speaker 1: last game we had circled. I'm excited that we're on 772 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:54,400 Speaker 1: the same page on that one, Raiders and Chargers. So 773 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,840 Speaker 1: this game is is sort of waffling. Three three and 774 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,680 Speaker 1: a half, three three and a half. Even at three 775 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,319 Speaker 1: and a half, I know it's a divisional game. Two 776 00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:06,400 Speaker 1: good teams. Three is the right side. It could be 777 00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,840 Speaker 1: a field goal game. The Chargers just feel like a 778 00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,440 Speaker 1: much better team to me. I continue to think that 779 00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:16,120 Speaker 1: the Raiders are inflated, that they're not as good as 780 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,200 Speaker 1: they've played. They've had a couple of good breaks. Um, 781 00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,000 Speaker 1: I'm just I'm just not in on the Raiders. I'm 782 00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,960 Speaker 1: just not in. It's mainly Derek cart playing out of 783 00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,920 Speaker 1: his mind right Like this guy is just on another 784 00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,000 Speaker 1: level right now. So I'm right there with you. My 785 00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:36,960 Speaker 1: favorite matchup last week was Darwin James versus Kelsey. Kelsey 786 00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:38,960 Speaker 1: kind of kind of dominated him, you guess. So we 787 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:40,680 Speaker 1: end up winning the Chargers. So I think we have 788 00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,719 Speaker 1: the same thing here where I gave out earlier year. 789 00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:45,520 Speaker 1: I gave him my favorite Rookie of the Year because 790 00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 1: it's not Samuel Jr. I think it was four to 791 00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,560 Speaker 1: one to win Rookie of the Year. He's now down 792 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,840 Speaker 1: to ten to one. He's got two picks. Um, he 793 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,920 Speaker 1: intercepted Dak and he intercepted my homes. I love him 794 00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:59,279 Speaker 1: too as the Carver corner. So a lot of signs 795 00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,040 Speaker 1: just point to the Argers be able to shut down 796 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:06,680 Speaker 1: not car completely, but enough where you know, this line 797 00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:08,560 Speaker 1: at minus three and a half was a little scary 798 00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,439 Speaker 1: ticket charges. Now it's down to three. Like Chad just said, 799 00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,880 Speaker 1: I love the Chargers Vegas. I don't know what the 800 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,719 Speaker 1: exact money is gonna be in the actual city of Vegas, 801 00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,560 Speaker 1: but I guarantee it's gonna sevent of the money is 802 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:20,839 Speaker 1: gonna be on the Raiders. It's gonna be a little 803 00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,759 Speaker 1: different across the country, but man, is this this That 804 00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,719 Speaker 1: city really embraced that team. So I think we're gonna 805 00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,759 Speaker 1: learn pretty quick here. We like to take Vegas at 806 00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:30,120 Speaker 1: home and we have to kind of fade them on 807 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,120 Speaker 1: the road where I know people are gonna go back 808 00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 1: to that Pittsburgh game that was just such a letdown 809 00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,040 Speaker 1: game by Pittsburgh after being Buffalo, Like we kind of 810 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,960 Speaker 1: know now what Pittsburgh NNA is, where you know you 811 00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,120 Speaker 1: can say what you want about this Oakland team. I 812 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,360 Speaker 1: don't know they're They're still major holes and major weaknesses 813 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,400 Speaker 1: on this team. So I like, in this matchup of 814 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,040 Speaker 1: divisional game, you take the Chargers here at home against 815 00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,840 Speaker 1: the team and you know their car that's just playing 816 00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,360 Speaker 1: a way above what they really are. I'd like how 817 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,840 Speaker 1: you to continue to call them wind. I can't help it. 818 00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:03,319 Speaker 1: In the fame of the Charger, I call it Sandy 819 00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,520 Speaker 1: Got Chargers all the time too. I'm sorry, buddy, I'm 820 00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,719 Speaker 1: just an old soul I will say I love the 821 00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,960 Speaker 1: Raiders helmets. I just love him. Yeah. My my favorite 822 00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,000 Speaker 1: clips is on the NFL films. They're talking about the 823 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:17,600 Speaker 1: autumn winds and that's just the Oakland Rador helmet comes 824 00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,919 Speaker 1: on the screen. It's just so good. The autumn wind 825 00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:25,320 Speaker 1: is a radar pillaging just for fun. He'll knock you 826 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:29,759 Speaker 1: around and upside down and laugh when he's conquered. And one. 827 00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:32,600 Speaker 1: All right, these are the teams that we're thinking about 828 00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:38,880 Speaker 1: right now. I think we feel pretty good about him. Panthers, Vikings, Jets. 829 00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,200 Speaker 1: Then on the fence right now, depending on the numbers, 830 00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:49,000 Speaker 1: we can get Giants, Steelers, Denver Chargers. So right now 831 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,480 Speaker 1: we're gonna choose five from We're gonna choose two from 832 00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,879 Speaker 1: those remaining four Giants Steelers, Denver Chargers. Are we feeling 833 00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,200 Speaker 1: good about that? And we're probably gonna Denver because that's 834 00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,160 Speaker 1: my big ball is better week, most likely better the 835 00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:06,279 Speaker 1: week running. We're on nice little heated with the big 836 00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,239 Speaker 1: balls better the week, so we went so basically we've 837 00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:12,480 Speaker 1: chosen four in the Panthers, Bikes Jets in Denver. I 838 00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,280 Speaker 1: like that we might have a little bit of a favorite. 839 00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:16,880 Speaker 1: I'm kind of falling in love with the charters too, 840 00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:22,880 Speaker 1: But we're owing one on Monday nights though. It's true, 841 00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,400 Speaker 1: it's true, that's true, all right. If we're doing a 842 00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,759 Speaker 1: money line parlay, which teams are we putting in our 843 00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,840 Speaker 1: money line parlay? And I noted I already have the 844 00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:36,160 Speaker 1: Jets and the Panthers in a money line parlay. If 845 00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,400 Speaker 1: we're adding it for a round robin, who are we 846 00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:43,040 Speaker 1: putting in there? Yep, like Panthers, like Minnesota. I have 847 00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:45,880 Speaker 1: a couple with the Giants in there. I have a 848 00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,680 Speaker 1: decent amount with the Jets in there. I don't know 849 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:50,560 Speaker 1: why I'm so all in on the Jets, but I am. 850 00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:52,759 Speaker 1: I'm not I was gonna put the lines in there. 851 00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:56,680 Speaker 1: I just can't do it as I know that they 852 00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:58,759 Speaker 1: probably that's a good that's a good number. Like you 853 00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,920 Speaker 1: just talked to the short hone. There's short road. Dogs 854 00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:04,560 Speaker 1: have been winning outright, so that that's non beare fans 855 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,360 Speaker 1: out there this this is a good one to put in. 856 00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,360 Speaker 1: Maybe it's a fifth leg, all right. We got our 857 00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:10,839 Speaker 1: big balls, we got our final five, kind of, we've 858 00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:16,400 Speaker 1: got our moneyline. Probably it's the Survivor Pool pick of 859 00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:28,520 Speaker 1: the Week. Bengals done. Get your pick in now. If 860 00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:33,360 Speaker 1: someone doesn't hear this until tomorrow or Saturday, what's their backup? 861 00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,680 Speaker 1: I know, I know where guy read he likes the 862 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,000 Speaker 1: Saints as a sneaky play. But mean you talked about 863 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,880 Speaker 1: we like the Giants as an underdog winner. So if 864 00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:44,919 Speaker 1: you're boring and you just want to play extra safe 865 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:48,239 Speaker 1: like I usually do, I have a couple, Um, you know, 866 00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:49,520 Speaker 1: a couple of people reach out to me. They just 867 00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,200 Speaker 1: like Buffalo. Yeah, yeah, No one's gonna stop you there. 868 00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:54,239 Speaker 1: That's that's an easy safe play. I just rather save 869 00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,640 Speaker 1: Buffalo because they play the Jets twice. So, um, we're 870 00:45:57,680 --> 00:45:59,919 Speaker 1: doing a little risky here taking the Thursday Night team 871 00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,560 Speaker 1: Like Bengos just look like world beaters. Jaguars a complete 872 00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:06,000 Speaker 1: train wreck. The Jaguars be able to backdoor this game, 873 00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,080 Speaker 1: but I just can't see them winning it. So I'm 874 00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:09,799 Speaker 1: with it. Well, I'm gonna put the Bengos in first 875 00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:14,839 Speaker 1: survivor pick me too. This has been the favorites from 876 00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:19,440 Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network for my bff, Simon Hunter. I 877 00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,200 Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Catch us talking about all the games, 878 00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,239 Speaker 1: all the sides, all the props, all the totals on 879 00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:29,200 Speaker 1: Sunday morning. Convince Me at Action Network HQ eleven am 880 00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,880 Speaker 1: Eastern The best betting pregame show in the history of 881 00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,680 Speaker 1: the world. Everything you need, nothing you don't. It's like 882 00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:40,720 Speaker 1: a good diet. Download us from Apple, podcast, Spotify, wherever 883 00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,640 Speaker 1: you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, love us, give 884 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:45,800 Speaker 1: us five stars. We'll send you some swag if we 885 00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,640 Speaker 1: choose a good one. Make it funny. We don't even 886 00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,600 Speaker 1: care if you hate on us until Tuesday. I love you.