WEBVTT - Prognosis Daily: What Went Wrong With Testing

0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson, a producer on the show.

0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:13.080
<v Speaker 1>We had planned to launch our new season, a deep

0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:17.240
<v Speaker 1>dive into the history of pandemics, in April, but then

0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:24.120
<v Speaker 1>the world changed. COVID nineteen has paralyzed countries, forced families

0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:28.000
<v Speaker 1>into their homes, and wiped out billions in the world's wealth,

0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:33.080
<v Speaker 1>and this is just the beginning. Extraordinary times like this

0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:37.320
<v Speaker 1>call for a few changes in programming, So Prognosis is

0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:39.880
<v Speaker 1>becoming a daily show for as long as it makes

0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:43.960
<v Speaker 1>sense to be one. Every weekday afternoon. We'll talk you

0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.159
<v Speaker 1>through the most important developments in the COVID nineteen outbreak.

0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:50.360
<v Speaker 1>I'll be hosting this daily edition with the help of

0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:56.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Jason Gale in Australia. Before we move on, one

0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.720
<v Speaker 1>more announcement. When you're done listening to the Daily Report today,

0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:03.920
<v Speaker 1>stick around for another special episode. It's an in depth

0:01:03.960 --> 0:01:07.440
<v Speaker 1>profile of the doctors and scientists who are leading the

0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:12.960
<v Speaker 1>fight to understand and beat global scourges like the new coronavirus.

0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:17.320
<v Speaker 1>If you're subscribed, that episode's in your feed right now.

0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:25.280
<v Speaker 1>Let's get started. It's day sixteen since the World Health

0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:30.200
<v Speaker 1>Organization declared COVID nineteen a global pandemic. As of the

0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:33.720
<v Speaker 1>latest reports, there are half a million known cases worldwide,

0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:39.039
<v Speaker 1>and the disease has killed over twenty two thousand. Today's

0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:44.800
<v Speaker 1>main story what went wrong with testing? But first, here's

0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:50.320
<v Speaker 1>the latest news. Spain reported a surge in cases, though

0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:54.680
<v Speaker 1>the country had fewer deaths than a day earlier. Infections

0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:58.080
<v Speaker 1>also climbed in the Lombardy region of Italy, the epicenter

0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:02.080
<v Speaker 1>of the crisis in Europe. Europe now accounts for seven

0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:06.080
<v Speaker 1>out of ten reported fatalities, the World Health Organization said.

0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.280
<v Speaker 1>In the US, the virus is causing a total economic

0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:14.400
<v Speaker 1>system shock that's showing up in new economic indicators. Three

0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:18.280
<v Speaker 1>point to eight million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last

0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:21.120
<v Speaker 1>week after much of the U s economy ground to

0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.680
<v Speaker 1>a halt. That's more than four times the highest number

0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:28.480
<v Speaker 1>ever recorded back in nineteen eighty two, according to Labor

0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:34.160
<v Speaker 1>Department data release today. To offset the pandemic's destructive effect

0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.799
<v Speaker 1>on workers and businesses, the Senate passed a historic two

0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:42.480
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollar rescue plan late last night. The package includes

0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:47.080
<v Speaker 1>expanded and extended unemployment benefits, loans, and assistance to large

0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:51.480
<v Speaker 1>and small businesses and billions for airlines, hotels, and the

0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.920
<v Speaker 1>retail industry. It is expected to pass the House easily

0:02:55.160 --> 0:03:00.240
<v Speaker 1>in a vote Friday morning. And finally, some encouraging minds

0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.280
<v Speaker 1>that we may soon be able to diagnose cases much faster.

0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Companies are rolling out COVID nineteen tests that can deliver

0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:11.320
<v Speaker 1>results in hours or even minutes. A new blood test

0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.960
<v Speaker 1>from medical supply firm Henry Shine takes nothing more than

0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:17.440
<v Speaker 1>a pin prick and can tell patients whether they are

0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:22.680
<v Speaker 1>infected in just fifteen minutes. Other companies like Robert Bosch

0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.400
<v Speaker 1>and The Logic Limited are also prototyping and developing quick

0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:30.160
<v Speaker 1>turnaround tests that diagnosed cases and a couple of hours

0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:33.840
<v Speaker 1>or a few minutes. Previously, it had taken days to

0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:39.000
<v Speaker 1>receive results. Even as companies race to invent smarter, faster

0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:41.920
<v Speaker 1>tests at the speed of the virus, the situation with

0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:46.120
<v Speaker 1>testing has varied widely around the world, which brings us

0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.920
<v Speaker 1>to our main story today, what went wrong with testing?

0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.960
<v Speaker 1>Health officials around the world have urged countries to step

0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:58.320
<v Speaker 1>up testing for the new coronavirus. They say we need

0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:02.240
<v Speaker 1>widespread tests to help under stand and reduce the transmission

0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:06.280
<v Speaker 1>of the virus. But some nations, like the United States,

0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:10.360
<v Speaker 1>have been slow to respond. When is testing everyone the

0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.800
<v Speaker 1>right thing to do? And why have some countries sprung

0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:17.560
<v Speaker 1>into action with aggressive testing while others seem so unprepared

0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:21.120
<v Speaker 1>to get tests on on a massive scale. It turns

0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:24.920
<v Speaker 1>out that resources are only part of the answer. Senior

0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:33.320
<v Speaker 1>editor Jason Gale reports, Dr ted Ross I don't know

0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:38.200
<v Speaker 1>Gabriezos is the World Health Organizations Directed General. On March sixteenth,

0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:41.600
<v Speaker 1>the delivered a stock warning to countries battling the coronavirus.

0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:47.680
<v Speaker 1>You cannot fight a fire unfolded, and we cannot stop

0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:52.440
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic if we don't know who is infected. We

0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:59.200
<v Speaker 1>have a simple message for all countries, test Test Test.

0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:05.679
<v Speaker 1>Dr Tras was sending this message because not all countries

0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.760
<v Speaker 1>are testing for the virus on a massive scale. As

0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.360
<v Speaker 1>of last week, the US had carried out just over

0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.960
<v Speaker 1>ten tests per hundred thousand people in the population. The

0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:17.400
<v Speaker 1>testing rate in South Korea, on the other hand, is

0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:21.400
<v Speaker 1>more than sixty times higher. South Korea is often pointed

0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.880
<v Speaker 1>to as the biggest case for why widespread testing is

0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.760
<v Speaker 1>a success story. It was one of the first countries

0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.520
<v Speaker 1>outside of China to experience a large scale epidemic of

0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:36.320
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen. Last month, the disease rest veerying out of control,

0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:41.520
<v Speaker 1>with infections rising thirtyfold in just ten days. In response,

0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.760
<v Speaker 1>South Korea tested more than three hundred and twenty thousand

0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.440
<v Speaker 1>people in less than a month. It was a diagnostic

0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.599
<v Speaker 1>blitz creek, and it helped bring down the daily tally

0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:55.200
<v Speaker 1>of new infections to less than one hundred. That was

0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.279
<v Speaker 1>a big slowdown from just a few weeks earlier, when

0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:02.240
<v Speaker 1>new infections topped eight Here to day, South Korea shows

0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:05.560
<v Speaker 1>that scaling up testing and putting in place measures to

0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:12.599
<v Speaker 1>stop onward transmission can put the epidemic in reverse. But

0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:16.039
<v Speaker 1>lots of countries aren't doing the kind of widespread testing

0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:20.200
<v Speaker 1>south Korea has done. One reason we live an incredibly

0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.960
<v Speaker 1>short supply around the world. That's Dr Mike Catton. He's

0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:28.400
<v Speaker 1>the director of the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory in Melbourne.

0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.760
<v Speaker 1>He tested and diagnosed the first COVID nineteen case in Australia.

0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:38.520
<v Speaker 1>A coronavirus test requires certain chemicals or reagents to perform.

0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.720
<v Speaker 1>Mike says all of the testing around the world has

0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:45.839
<v Speaker 1>created intense demand for these chemicals and they're made in

0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:49.920
<v Speaker 1>Europe and in in Asia and America, which are both

0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:55.200
<v Speaker 1>heavily manufacturing capacity smashed, and their desperate to use those

0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.120
<v Speaker 1>very same reagents themselves. So there's a lot of competition

0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:02.320
<v Speaker 1>for our supply chains. Were all provably stockpiled, but we're

0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:08.240
<v Speaker 1>going through those tests. That an enormous right. Doctors want

0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.600
<v Speaker 1>more tests because it helps them tracks spread in communities.

0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:15.640
<v Speaker 1>It also allows hospital workers to identify patients for whom

0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:18.960
<v Speaker 1>they need to take extra precautions. In a city like

0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:21.760
<v Speaker 1>New York, which is more than a quarter of cases

0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:26.120
<v Speaker 1>in the United States, that spread is wide. Deborah Burke's,

0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:29.680
<v Speaker 1>the State Department doctor who is advising Vice President Mike Pants,

0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:33.000
<v Speaker 1>said this week that of tests in New York City

0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:37.160
<v Speaker 1>and surrounding areas are coming back positive. That compares with

0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.560
<v Speaker 1>less than eight and the rest of the country and

0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.360
<v Speaker 1>suggests a high prevalence of COVID nineteen. That makes it

0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:47.040
<v Speaker 1>even more important to find infected people. But that alone

0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.680
<v Speaker 1>isn't enough. So the first thing is you have to

0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:55.360
<v Speaker 1>have testing. But testing is only a good investment if

0:07:55.400 --> 0:08:00.480
<v Speaker 1>that leads to case isolation and to contact tracing. This

0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.960
<v Speaker 1>is doctor Analyze Wilder Smith. She's a professor of Emerging

0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:07.400
<v Speaker 1>infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.800
<v Speaker 1>In the absence of plentiful testing kids, there's been a

0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:14.560
<v Speaker 1>focus on only testing severe cases or people at risk

0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:19.560
<v Speaker 1>of developing serious complications. Analie says that's not sufficient to

0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:23.400
<v Speaker 1>turn the epidemic around. She says even people with mild

0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:27.840
<v Speaker 1>symptoms should get tested and then isolate themselves until the

0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:31.440
<v Speaker 1>result comes back negative. It's something she's trying to create

0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:35.080
<v Speaker 1>awareness about among the medical community in Switzerland, where she lives.

0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:40.040
<v Speaker 1>If you look at what China did, despite totally being

0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:46.360
<v Speaker 1>overwhelmed more than we are, they continued with isolation of

0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:52.160
<v Speaker 1>mild case cases whilst we stopped it. In total. In total,

0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:56.120
<v Speaker 1>there's no case. There's no isolation of milder cases in Singapore.

0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.480
<v Speaker 1>I visit a Singapore a week ago. Mild cases are

0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.600
<v Speaker 1>even in negative pressure rules and they dress up for

0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:05.559
<v Speaker 1>them like like like demola. So that's how serious Singapore

0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.920
<v Speaker 1>takes mild cases because it's about not the case, it's

0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:13.040
<v Speaker 1>about transmission. So you need to have the facilities in

0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:18.800
<v Speaker 1>place to do isolation of mild cases. It's no coincidence

0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.920
<v Speaker 1>China and Singapore took similar approaches to COVID nineteen. Analy

0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:26.880
<v Speaker 1>says she was working in Singapore seventeen years ago when

0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:30.640
<v Speaker 1>the city state experienced an outbreak of another coronavirus from China,

0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:36.599
<v Speaker 1>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS. The lessons from SARS

0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:40.160
<v Speaker 1>have put many Asian countries ahead of Europe, not just

0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:43.640
<v Speaker 1>in the speed of their response, but also their capacity

0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:50.360
<v Speaker 1>to deal with it. Europe mistake was that we pulled

0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:56.280
<v Speaker 1>from the experience of influenza Asius advantage was they pulled

0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:59.720
<v Speaker 1>from the experience of stars. The flu mindset of European

0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.000
<v Speaker 1>county trees meant they failed to heed the warning signs

0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:07.400
<v Speaker 1>coming from China as early as January. We failed to

0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:12.960
<v Speaker 1>stock up on testing, to stock up on face masks

0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:19.720
<v Speaker 1>and and and to prepare true contact tracing in Europe.

0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:33.840
<v Speaker 1>In Europe, we failed. So it seems the big difference

0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:37.480
<v Speaker 1>between the countries which got testing right and the ones

0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:42.000
<v Speaker 1>that didn't is the infrastructure they had in place. Asian

0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:44.480
<v Speaker 1>countries had a semblance of what they'd be dealing with.

0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:49.160
<v Speaker 1>All nations in the West were preparing for flu. Analy

0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:53.040
<v Speaker 1>says it's not too late to learn from Asia the

0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:57.280
<v Speaker 1>lockdowns imposed in many countries provide a window of opportunity

0:10:57.800 --> 0:11:02.040
<v Speaker 1>for health authorities to bolster capacity for not just detecting cases,

0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:13.280
<v Speaker 1>but also for early isolation regardless of severity. That was

0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:17.880
<v Speaker 1>Jason Gale in Melbourne. And that's it for the Prognosis

0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:21.600
<v Speaker 1>Daily Edition. For more on the coronavirus crisis from a

0:11:21.679 --> 0:11:25.280
<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot

0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:30.880
<v Speaker 1>com slash coronavirus and for more. Right now, there's another

0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:34.080
<v Speaker 1>fresh episode of Prognosis in Your Feet on the scientists

0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.600
<v Speaker 1>and doctors uncovering the lessons other pandemics can teach us

0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:42.000
<v Speaker 1>about COVID nineteen. If you appreciate the podcast, please take

0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.160
<v Speaker 1>a moment to rate us or leave a review on

0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:48.320
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts to help more listeners find our global reporting.

0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:53.240
<v Speaker 1>The Prognosis Daily Edition is hosted by me Laura Carlson.

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:57.640
<v Speaker 1>The show is produced by Me Topher Foreheads, Jordan Gaspore

0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:02.640
<v Speaker 1>and Magnus Hendrickson, reporting by Jason Gale. Our editors are

0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:07.680
<v Speaker 1>Francesca Levy and Rick Shine. Francesca Levy is Bloomberg's head

0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:18.120
<v Speaker 1>of Podcasts. M