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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Karl

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Speaker 1: Wayan works with us. He writes for High Frequency Economics,

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Speaker 1: and I's written a separate note on China for a

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Speaker 1: good number of years as well. I think Lisa's point

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Speaker 1: is a foundational Monday conversation, which is, does a guy

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Speaker 1: like you look at economic growth dynamics or do you

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Speaker 1: look separately at inflation dynamics when you link the central

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Speaker 1: bank into all this, well, I think at the moment

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Speaker 1: the Central Bank is focused on the financial system and

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Speaker 1: on the economy. There's no doubt about it. And that's

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Speaker 1: what FED chair Powell told us on on Friday in

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Speaker 1: a statement that was remarkably similar to Alan Greenspan statement

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Speaker 1: in seven when the stock market took a huge tumble downward,

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Speaker 1: you know, saying signaling to everybody. You know, we're here

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Speaker 1: for the economy, We're here for the financial system. We

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Speaker 1: see what's going on, and we'll do what's appropriate. The

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index made by Michael Rosenberg and his

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Speaker 1: team is the legendary Michael Rosenberg is really really important.

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Speaker 1: Two weeks after it came out, the I m F

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Speaker 1: picked it up and it's a drama chart right now,

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Speaker 1: like everything else, moving from optimism down to one point

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Speaker 1: five standard deviations, it's nowhere near where we were in oh,

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Speaker 1: seven oh eight. What strikes me is just how quickly

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Speaker 1: the story has changed. A couple of weeks ago, if

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Speaker 1: you ask people about the March FED meeting, they might

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Speaker 1: say that's a little bit too early. A couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks later and we sit here this Monday morning, you

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Speaker 1: ask him about the March eighteenth meeting, and some people

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Speaker 1: say that's too late. They've got to work before. What's

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Speaker 1: your base case not on what they should shouldn't do,

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Speaker 1: but when they what they will won't do well. I

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Speaker 1: think what they will do is they will address liquidity

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Speaker 1: needs immediately as they come up. If again, if we

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Speaker 1: flash back seven, the FED suspended all thoughts of it's

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Speaker 1: Fed funds raged during the days immediately after the stock

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Speaker 1: market crash. They just said, whatever you need, will give

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Speaker 1: it to you. We'll figure out a price later, and

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Speaker 1: we're just gonna put the money on the table for

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Speaker 1: the financial system to take it. That's the kind of

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Speaker 1: action that I think is immediately required, even without a

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Speaker 1: rate change. The point is that the money is there,

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Speaker 1: and the money is cheap, and the money is without conditions.

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Speaker 1: Let me interrupt, just published moments ago from Statigous Research,

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Speaker 1: Donald russ Miller China GDP could be negative five Q

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Speaker 1: one is another expert framing China. Just just to drop

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Speaker 1: in on that one. You know, the p M I

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Speaker 1: certainly indicates trouble in China, and as Lisa pointed out,

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Speaker 1: we expected that bad number or a bad number like that.

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Speaker 1: But that p M I only has a correlation of

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Speaker 1: about point three between starting to present, so it may

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Speaker 1: very well overstate or not give us a clear picture

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Speaker 1: on how bad it is and its whole history. It

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Speaker 1: has a correlation of point seven. But since it's done

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Speaker 1: a lousy job predicting the correlation, I wasn't I want

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Speaker 1: to go to the idea of what kind of monetary

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Speaker 1: policy response really will help the matter. At this point,

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Speaker 1: you said provide liquidity to the financial system back in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, where many people are drawing comparisons,

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Speaker 1: it was a financial system driven problem, liquidity problem. We

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Speaker 1: are seeing a very different reality, this time an economic issue,

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Speaker 1: and the banks seemed to be in very solid shape,

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Speaker 1: plenty of reserves. What do you say to people who

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Speaker 1: argue that if you drop rates to zero here that

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Speaker 1: could arguably hurt the financial system more than help going forward. Oh,

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Speaker 1: I agree with you, Lisa. You know, I think that

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Speaker 1: from the actual nuts and bolts of making the economy

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Speaker 1: go all right, the interest rate is irrelevant right now, right,

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Speaker 1: This is all about liquidity, all right, This is all

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Speaker 1: about save the banks, save the economy, save the financial systems,

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Speaker 1: save the economy. But the banks aren't about to go under.

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Speaker 1: They're not, but people think that they are. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: the idea of providing confidence that people who thinks that

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Speaker 1: this morning, who thinks the banks are going onto this morning? Well,

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Speaker 1: people are concerned about financial conditions. They're concerned about the

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Speaker 1: crash and the stock market. People are waking up to

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Speaker 1: warging calls that they didn't have a week. I haven't

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Speaker 1: heard anyone to side the banks are going Gunda. Well

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Speaker 1: that's true, but the job of the Fed is to

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Speaker 1: stabilize the financial system, whether it's banks going under, our

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Speaker 1: banks getting in trouble, or companies getting in trouble all right,

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Speaker 1: or investors getting in trouble and bringing down parts of

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Speaker 1: the banking system. Just remember, Jonathan, that if we go

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Speaker 1: back to two thousand and eight, we all saw the

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Speaker 1: big crash in the housing market coming, but nobody thought

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Speaker 1: through the financial implications. And as Lisa says, when something breaks,

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Speaker 1: something gets this far away from normal, things tend to break.

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Speaker 1: I think you said that before, and I agree with that, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I did. I just want to be clear, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think you're fair mongering, just in case some of

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Speaker 1: our listeners hear words like people think. But it raises

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Speaker 1: a really interesting question, john because so many of the

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Speaker 1: assets and the lending function has shifted from big banks

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Speaker 1: to some of these investors that are getting margin calls.

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Speaker 1: So my question is the banks are fine, They have

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Speaker 1: more reserves than they know what to do with. The

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Speaker 1: question is what about everyone else? And what can the

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Speaker 1: FED really do in a systematic way to address potential

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Speaker 1: issues that they may be feeling. And let's just take

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Speaker 1: this back to China, which is the starting point for

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Speaker 1: all of this. Alright, households in China haven't been getting

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Speaker 1: paychecks now for three or four weeks. Businesses haven't been

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Speaker 1: taken in revenues. If businesses of customers of banks fell,

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Speaker 1: as Lisa points out, then the banks will have trouble.

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Speaker 1: And if banks in China have trouble, how does that

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Speaker 1: affect our financial system? We don't know because we've never

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Speaker 1: seen this before. These are valily points. So it raises

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Speaker 1: the question what can you do outside of monetary policy.

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Speaker 1: So Italy, the likes of the Italians over the weekend

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Speaker 1: doing some things with tax credits to have those companies

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Speaker 1: that are suffering otherwise viable businesses that are just going

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Speaker 1: through some pain. Right now, What can Congress do if

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Speaker 1: this gets worse in America? Well, right now, I don't

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Speaker 1: think this Congress can do anything, to be honest with

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Speaker 1: that's a political question, I think, rather than an economic question.

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't really see the two houses of

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Speaker 1: Congress coming together before election to get together on on

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Speaker 1: anything um. And that's just the political judgment on my part.

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Speaker 1: What should they do? Again? The government should be this

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Speaker 1: is a supply shock, so the government should be looking

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Speaker 1: at ways to encourage companies to diversify supply chains, to

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Speaker 1: get substitute supply chains, to bridge companies through gaps in

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Speaker 1: production when they can't get apart to make the assembly

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Speaker 1: line go. And I think that's where they can step in.

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Speaker 1: You have so much experience and when things unravel for

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Speaker 1: e M, should we have our radar up and that

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Speaker 1: the challenge won't be a major country or a major

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Speaker 1: central bank, and that the challenge will be a given

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Speaker 1: nation will unravel. Well, I just look at commodity producers,

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Speaker 1: whether they're advanced economies like Canada and Australia, which, by

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Speaker 1: the way, both of which are likely to cut rates

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Speaker 1: this week for macro economic reasons associated with the same shock.

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Speaker 1: All right, but commodity prices are down by double digits.

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Speaker 1: Oil prices. You've talked about this a lot on the air.

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Speaker 1: Oil prices Brent at fifty dollars in battle. These are

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Speaker 1: the kinds of things that break emerging market economies. This

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Speaker 1: has been wonderful, Carl Weinberg, Thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us with high frequency economics. UH really can't say

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Speaker 1: enough about the research linking and fixed in come across

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Speaker 1: all of those. We're just got Terry Haynes of PEGIA

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Speaker 1: Policy We've got a huge feedback when he's on because

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Speaker 1: he's very direct about the political realities. As a link

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Speaker 1: into Washington, Terry, I want to go to the terrific

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Speaker 1: work redone by Pew Research over the weekend on the

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Speaker 1: Latino vote and the idea that even in a state

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Speaker 1: like Indiana, the Latino vote is tangible and health care

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Speaker 1: is the number one issue. Is Bernie Sanders a one

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Speaker 1: policy candidate? Is it simply his assent is about health care? Uh? No,

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Speaker 1: I think that's uh, that's not quite it. That plays

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Speaker 1: into it, Tom, But his ascent has to do with

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Speaker 1: the I think a very simple fact, which is that

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Speaker 1: of Democratic primary voters, the most motivated people out there.

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Speaker 1: People will talk about democratic politics like you talk about

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Speaker 1: the New York Rangers are people who are progressive. And

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Speaker 1: Sanders has been out there for four years plus and

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Speaker 1: he's got he's got money, he's got an organization, and

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Speaker 1: he's got a lot of amitment. And that's uh, that's

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Speaker 1: been enough to buoy him and balast him through these

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Speaker 1: early primaries, and that will continue. I think healthcare is

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Speaker 1: a part of that. So yes, absolutely, Terry. Let's fold

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Speaker 1: the stories of the moment into the political story, Showery,

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Speaker 1: what was seeing of the economy and the epicenter of that,

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Speaker 1: the scare around the coronavirus. This is from Goldman. If

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Speaker 1: the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth, it may

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Speaker 1: increase the likelihood of democratic victory in the election in

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Speaker 1: contrast with the prevailing market narrative head to head poles.

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Speaker 1: So Senator Sanders would be competitive against President Trump in

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Speaker 1: the general election. Does that resonate with you, Terry, or

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Speaker 1: do you push back? I'll be respecting my golden and friends.

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Speaker 1: I will push back. Uh. I think they're onto something.

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Speaker 1: There's certainly, but there's just greatly more uncertainty. Like my

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Speaker 1: old Fred ed him in the require as I mentioned

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Speaker 1: over the weekend. But I don't think that redounds automatically

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Speaker 1: the Sanders benefit. What you have in a Sanders Trump

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Speaker 1: general election fundamentally is Trump pounding away at the economy

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Speaker 1: but also pounding away at the ways that Sanders would

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Speaker 1: want to change the economy and a very blunderbus fashion

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Speaker 1: and uh, and Sanders you know doesn't really want to

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Speaker 1: counter that. He wants to double down on it. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, it strikes me as a Johnson versus Goldwater

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Speaker 1: sort of election, even with the coronavirus, Terry, to build

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Speaker 1: on what john was talking about, let's take a step

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Speaker 1: back and not just put Sanders versus President Trump, but

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Speaker 1: in general, does the spread of the coronavirus and questions

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Speaker 1: about the response put President Trump in a weaker or

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Speaker 1: a stronger position to win reelection? Uh? You know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure about taking a position right now. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to demur a little bit. Uh. We're not quite We're

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Speaker 1: not quite at the point where we know that it's

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Speaker 1: either they're on top of it and in front of

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Speaker 1: it or whether this is uh apologies to push forty three,

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Speaker 1: the kind of the great job brownie moment where they're

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Speaker 1: about to get overwhelmed, uh and inundated. Uh you know,

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Speaker 1: And and that's the fault on which the that answer

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Speaker 1: really depends. So far right now, they seem to be

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Speaker 1: doing okay. Terry. I'm depressed because you and I are

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Speaker 1: the only ones in this studio, in the control room

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Speaker 1: or listening worldwide who know what Johnson Goldwater was. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's very depressive, But come on, there was that ad

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Speaker 1: about Barry Goldwater the atomic bomb television ad in a

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Speaker 1: U H two O went down in flames. Great it's

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Speaker 1: changed now we're so much more sophisticated and so much

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Speaker 1: more visible. Can the Democrats, whoever wins, put together a

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Speaker 1: cogent ad message so they can defend and not be

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Speaker 1: the very goldwater of two thousand twenty? Oh sure, But

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Speaker 1: it depends a great deal on who that nominee is.

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Speaker 1: You know, if I've been telling people for nine months

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Speaker 1: to a year that I think that if the if

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Speaker 1: the nominee is Biden, I think, uh, the Biden can

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Speaker 1: beat Trump. I think Democrats generally can be competitive. The

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Speaker 1: big problem for problems with Sanders one is that uh

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Speaker 1: he other than his own followers, he depressed his turnouts.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people will just swing voters turn away

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Speaker 1: from Sanders. Now that was certainly problem really is that

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Speaker 1: you have down ballot problems where the prospect of losing

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Speaker 1: significantly in the Senate and the House are also very real.

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Speaker 1: That'll be a theme for Wednesday morning, no doubt about that.

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Speaker 1: Maybe we'll speak to you then, Terry Haynes. With Panjia policy.

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Speaker 1: Michael Schuel is just wonderful. Dr Schuel not only with

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Speaker 1: his expertise and accounting and finance, but also with market

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Speaker 1: field asset management. Thinking broadly about the market, Michael, can

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Speaker 1: you acquire shares this morning? I mean you can't. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you'll make money. Um, I mean I'm

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Speaker 1: joking apart. I you know, I do think that that

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Speaker 1: Friday's low is you know, at least we have support

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Speaker 1: to talk about, you know, and as that one hundred

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Speaker 1: bounced off the two hundred day and the SMP he

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Speaker 1: bounced in the seventies, So you know, I think that

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Speaker 1: that is support. And if that support holds, and I think, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that there are signs the you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe the worst of the first waves behind us. What

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Speaker 1: ratio is most important to you in deciding what to

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Speaker 1: buy within the equity markets? What's the character where you'll say,

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Speaker 1: you know, this looks like in a special value now. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think I these times look for things

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Speaker 1: that you would have expected to go down more and

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Speaker 1: haven't gone down. You know. I think China's local market

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Speaker 1: is of course a standout. I mean it's you know

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Speaker 1: that that is the country which has still been most

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Speaker 1: affected by this. And yet if you look at a

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Speaker 1: chart of the Shanghai A. It looks volatile, but it

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Speaker 1: looks normally volatile, and apart from that one day shocking decline,

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Speaker 1: the overall picture, you haven't you haven't broken that market yet,

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Speaker 1: you know, I would look at a sector domestically that, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, is a few steps away from the problem.

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Speaker 1: I think home building kind of stands out where where

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Speaker 1: we have a lot of very good internal housing data

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Speaker 1: that tells us for the end of last year beginning

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Speaker 1: of this year, it really was a strong period for

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Speaker 1: for the new home market. And you know, unless you

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Speaker 1: believe that we're heading for domestic recession in the United States,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a few steps away from the chaos.

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Speaker 1: It's a long way away from being an airline. Michael,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about developing a strategy to come back into

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Speaker 1: the market, the kind of things you need to look

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Speaker 1: for if you have a long time horizon at this point,

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Speaker 1: for our listeners listen to the program, what's your best

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Speaker 1: guide for them on deploying some capital into a market

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Speaker 1: as volatile as this one? But just picking your moments,

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Speaker 1: picking your spots. Yeah, I think you have to just

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Speaker 1: hold your nose and do it. I don't I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be obvious. You know, when this

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Speaker 1: is over, it will be obvious, but it will be

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Speaker 1: very difficult to get involved, you know, to get involved

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Speaker 1: at that point. I think what you're looking for now

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Speaker 1: are cyclical six portions of cyclicality that that aren't behaving

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Speaker 1: as badly as you might have expected. Again, the last

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Speaker 1: couple of days of last week we're interesting because it

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Speaker 1: was the defensive sectors really going, you know, really getting liquidated.

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Speaker 1: So I think that that's that's something we'd look for.

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Speaker 1: And you need you know, you ever need support to

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Speaker 1: hold or it needs to break, but bounce back extremely quickly.

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Speaker 1: Even one of those is fine. Michael, What would you

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Speaker 1: have to see to rethink your thesis that it would

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Speaker 1: be a good buying opportunity at some point? Um, You know,

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Speaker 1: but the disease itself is not particularly worry so it's

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Speaker 1: more of the the attempt to halt the disease. You know.

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Speaker 1: I think that that it certainly is possible that the

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Speaker 1: sort of coordinated action to contain the disease causes enough

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Speaker 1: distress economically and what I would call permanent distress. You know,

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Speaker 1: I don't you don't really worry about a corporation missing

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Speaker 1: its quarter as earnings or maybe even next quarters earnings.

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Speaker 1: As long as you can see what it's transient. I

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Speaker 1: think it's the number of companies that actually go bust.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the number of employees that are actually

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Speaker 1: fired and not refired. You know that that that really matter.

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Speaker 1: I think markets can be patient with with you know,

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Speaker 1: a deep effect from you know that that comes and

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Speaker 1: goes over a period of weeks or months. But but

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Speaker 1: and I just start to see called the bankruptcy is

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Speaker 1: taught up. It's difficult. It's more difficult to come back

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Speaker 1: from that. Michael, Lisa has been talking about economic growth

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Speaker 1: all morning. We have a stunning headline out from our

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Speaker 1: Ira Jersey, who's running our fixed income shop, and this

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Speaker 1: is just a what if all treasury yields seen sub

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Speaker 1: one cent in a coronavirus recession? Now, first of all, folks,

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Speaker 1: you gotta get there. We're not there yet. We're clearly

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Speaker 1: not on one percent sub for all treasury yields. What

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Speaker 1: does that signal, Michael, to have all yields under one percent?

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Speaker 1: If we get there, I mean, we've never seen that

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Speaker 1: in our lifetimes. What does it signal? Well, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we haven't seen it in the US. We have seen

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Speaker 1: it obviously in other parts of the world. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I believe it's signals the that's for one market which

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Speaker 1: has made people money, and that that's so everybody's crowding.

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Speaker 1: I I but one thing I'm very resistant to is

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Speaker 1: the idea of the bond market is more intelligent vanov

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Speaker 1: Vanova portions of financial markets. It's just as prone to

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Speaker 1: the stress is caused by momentum and extreme moves as

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Speaker 1: other parts of the market. And you know what what

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Speaker 1: we are certainly witnessing is a is a frantic attempt

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Speaker 1: to try and discount you know, the the immediate moves

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Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve and and a reaction to you know,

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Speaker 1: multi standard deviation moves, moves that we saw, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know that we saw over the course of last week.

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Speaker 1: You know, you could go back to a year like

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Speaker 1: two thousand and nine, where of course treasury yields collapsed

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Speaker 1: to levels which we fought were unbelievable at the time.

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Speaker 1: They obviously obviously those levels are higher than where we

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Speaker 1: are today. You know, the recovery from two thousand and

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Speaker 1: nine was one of the ugliest multi month periods for

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Speaker 1: the bond market, nobody really cared because they were making

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Speaker 1: so much in other assets. But but the bond market,

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Speaker 1: you know, has historically overreacted to times like these and

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Speaker 1: then had to then have to paper price later on.

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Speaker 1: And Michael, this really implicit in that is the fact

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Speaker 1: that perhaps you believe that bonds are severely overbought right

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Speaker 1: now and could be due for a reversal with yields

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Speaker 1: rising much more. Is that correct? I mean, if it's

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Speaker 1: at the end of the world and we're not facing

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Speaker 1: a deep possession. But yes, I think that the treasury

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Speaker 1: yields where they are, you know, are likely to move

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Speaker 1: significantly higher over the period of over period of weeks

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Speaker 1: or months. But I but I understand how we get here.

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Speaker 1: You know, I understand that the Fed Reserve is under

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Speaker 1: pressure to act and my and might and you know

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Speaker 1: and might well act. And I understand that the long

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Speaker 1: end of the curve has been literally the only part

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Speaker 1: of people's portfolios which has been able to protect from

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Speaker 1: while they're being long So you know, there's some sense

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Speaker 1: to what happened. That doesn't mean that that we're in

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Speaker 1: and you know that we're in a new permanent state

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Speaker 1: of affairs where we're going to look at the tenure

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Speaker 1: at one and think it's normal. I think it's abnormal,

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Speaker 1: and I think we'll look back on it and wonder

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Speaker 1: how we actually got there. I look forward to that

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Speaker 1: conversation with you in the future. Michael always greting to

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Speaker 1: get your thoughts, Michael Shaw, wonderful, Michael Field, asset management.

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Speaker 1: Right now, what we've really tried to do is and

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Speaker 1: I sat down and we just said we've got to

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Speaker 1: get the best in medicine. We had Paul Kilman with

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Speaker 1: us earlier this morning from Imperial College, truly first rate,

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Speaker 1: world class in the genome the RNA of viruses. And

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Speaker 1: now we speak to a fabulous virologist, Jennifer Rohne out

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Speaker 1: of Oberlin and the acclaimed program at the University of

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Speaker 1: Washington and at u c L in London. She's done

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Speaker 1: important virus work and particularly across species including cats as well. Jennifer,

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Speaker 1: what does the media most get wrong about the fear

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Speaker 1: out there, the masks, the droplets in the air, What

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Speaker 1: do we most get wrong? I guess the masks seem

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Speaker 1: very comforting and we see a lot of them being

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Speaker 1: worn here in London, especially on public transport, and they

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Speaker 1: will indeed block the larger droplets of a sneezer or cough,

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Speaker 1: but they really aren't great protection overall. Viruses can get

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Speaker 1: through these masks. They can get into your eyes. And

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Speaker 1: a lot of people fit with their masks. They don't

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Speaker 1: use them properly. They're not they don't fit properly, and

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Speaker 1: it gives you a false sense of security in a way,

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Speaker 1: and what you really need to be doing is washing

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Speaker 1: your hands and not touching your face so much. Dr Rohn.

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Speaker 1: From an economic point of view, there's a huge fear

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Speaker 1: that the fear of coronavirus will keep people home and

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Speaker 1: bring commerce and all things trade to a halt. From

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Speaker 1: a medical perspective, what's the big fear here? It's a

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Speaker 1: really difficult one. I mean, what China did with their

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Speaker 1: lockdown was undoubtedly quite effective. I mean, it's still escaped,

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Speaker 1: but it kept it under control. And you could argue

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Speaker 1: that closing schools and stopping travel will help. But personally,

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Speaker 1: I think that the cat is a bit out of

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Speaker 1: the bag now. This thing is spreading and I don't

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Speaker 1: know how much intervention would be sensible at this point. Jennifer,

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Speaker 1: have you seen enough community transmission or at least evidence

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Speaker 1: of community transmission in the United States now to say

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Speaker 1: that any kind of travel curves would be ineffective. Well, well,

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Speaker 1: what's been happening in the Pacific Northwest has been quite interesting.

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Speaker 1: You know. It looks as if it's been spreading in

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Speaker 1: this suburb of Seattle for for perhaps weeks, and I

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Speaker 1: think as more and more people are tested, we will

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Speaker 1: we will under cover more evidence of person to person spread.

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Speaker 1: People have not had contact with anyone who's traveled to

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Speaker 1: any of these hotspot countries. Why has testing for this

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Speaker 1: particular virus been so difficult, Well, there's been a few

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Speaker 1: problems with the one that the CDC was producing. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a brand new virus. Usually test kits

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Speaker 1: are highly tested over a number of months. Just had

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Speaker 1: to be rushed out quite quickly. I think basically it

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Speaker 1: could be the fact that people just feel they can't

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Speaker 1: afford the testing in countries where there isn't a national

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Speaker 1: health service here in London, here in the UK, people

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Speaker 1: will get tested. In the United States, I think it

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Speaker 1: might be more difficult. Dr Rohn, what is the mortality

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Speaker 1: rate at this point that the virus has been shown

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Speaker 1: to have. It's it is fluctuating as more and more

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Speaker 1: data come in. It's anywhere between point one percent and

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Speaker 1: about two percent. And I know this isn't a very

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Speaker 1: reassuring thing to hear, but it is a movie target

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Speaker 1: at the moment. Even if it is point one percent,

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Speaker 1: the lowest of the estimates, that's still more than seasonal flu.

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Speaker 1: So we don't know the exact numb as yet because

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Speaker 1: we don't know the exact numbers of people who are

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Speaker 1: infected and don't have symptoms. How many cases do you

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Speaker 1: need or deaths do you need to get a better

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Speaker 1: handle on what the virulency is. Are you like days

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Speaker 1: away from getting a better knowledge of Lesa's good question,

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Speaker 1: or is it weeks away? I think we're looking at weeks.

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Speaker 1: The other thing about mortality rate to take into account

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Speaker 1: is it depends on your health structure, your health care infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: So if you're you're in a hospital it's overwhelmed, for example,

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Speaker 1: and who by your death rate might be higher than

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Speaker 1: if you're a lovely sort of intensive care in a

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Speaker 1: in a place like London where there's only a few

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Speaker 1: patients and everyone's getting the best possible care, So that

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Speaker 1: mortality rate is not fixed in Stone. It really depends

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Speaker 1: on how the health care system responds, so we don't

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Speaker 1: know how many people are infected and you probably will

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Speaker 1: take weeks, if not months, to sort off these numbers.

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Speaker 1: Dr Ron, thank you so much for being with Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance a number of times to this crisis. Dr Own

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Speaker 1: at UCL in London. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio