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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud read.

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Speaker 2: Enough there for running a gay.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious text.

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Speaker 4: Protution, Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort

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Speaker 4: four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind, buddy, And that's why you see your

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Speaker 1: beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to of the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drilled pibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth.

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Speaker 3: Pick that happens? Yogo benito, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome

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Speaker 3: to Wondergo, the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Michael Lee buff and joining me as

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Speaker 3: a always Anthony Dbundo and bj Cunningham. And today we're

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Speaker 3: actually going to start with derk Classicer, the showdown between

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Speaker 3: Brusia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, and then

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Speaker 3: we'll get into the EPL, give out some of our

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Speaker 3: favorite bets around Europe as well as our favorite underdogs

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Speaker 3: in Europe and our favorite bets from the EPL for

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Speaker 3: the weekend. But like I said, there's only one place

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Speaker 3: to start this week, and it's at the west Fallen

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Speaker 3: Stadium Brusia Dortmund plus two to seventy home underdogs against

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Speaker 3: league leaders Bayern Munich, who are minus one twenty on

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Speaker 3: the road. The draw is plus three forty Bayern Munich

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Speaker 3: first and expected goals four, third in expected goals against

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Speaker 3: and the best expected goal differential across of all of

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Speaker 3: Europe's Big five leagues. They only are up one point

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Speaker 3: on Dortmund in the Bundesliga. This is going to be

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Speaker 3: This is the match of the weekend, no questions about.

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Speaker 3: It should be a good one, should be wide open.

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Speaker 3: But it is a derby and you just throw everything

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Speaker 3: out the window when that happens, right, Anthony.

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Speaker 4: Well, I actually I wanted to do the Union Eastern

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Speaker 4: Conference final game first, as I am all aboard the

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Speaker 4: bandwagon of my union. We will be taking down Michael's

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Speaker 4: NYCFC on Sunday at three pm.

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Speaker 2: That's going to be a great match.

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Speaker 4: But we are European focused, so in Germany, the other

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Speaker 4: game of the weekend is Byern and Dortmund, and let's

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Speaker 4: be honest here, the table says that they're only about

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Speaker 4: one point apart, but the reality is that they're much

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Speaker 4: much further apart than that. Dortmund's about a goal and

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Speaker 4: a half expected worse per game than Byron, and it's

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Speaker 4: a little sad how much better Byron is than the

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Speaker 4: rest of the Bundesliga. But the main improvement for Byern

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Speaker 4: this year has been defensively. You know, they were middling

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Speaker 4: for large portions of the season, conceding a ton of

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Speaker 4: chances from direct attacks, very vulnerable on the counter. Hansi

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Speaker 4: Flick really didn't figure out how to solve their issues

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Speaker 4: and it's really what got them knocked out of the

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Speaker 4: Champions League against PSG. Well, it appears they've sorted out

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Speaker 4: at least whatever somewhat issue they had there in the

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Speaker 4: sense that the defense has been way better this year.

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Speaker 4: They are pretty much first in free metric we look

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Speaker 4: at in terms of field tilt, to ball control to

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Speaker 4: preventing opponents into your own box. They're number one in that,

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Speaker 4: number one and getting into opponents' boxes. These two teams

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Speaker 4: actually did play in the Super Cup early in the season.

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Speaker 4: It was a very open game, but again Byron outclassed them,

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Speaker 4: and I'm expecting the same here. BJ shows a little

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Speaker 4: value on Byron, which you know, means something is wrong,

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Speaker 4: But I also show some value on Byron too.

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Speaker 2: I've got the minus one twenty one. I like them here.

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Speaker 4: No fans going to be in attendance, which takes some

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Speaker 4: of the sting out of it, but also hurts the

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Speaker 4: home field advantage that Dortmund may or may not have had.

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Speaker 4: That's pretty much gone without the fans, and so I

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Speaker 4: think Byron roles here. Don't even hate chasing an altline

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Speaker 4: minus one and a half. It's a little square, but

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Speaker 4: I think they're the much better team. And anytime somebody

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Speaker 4: comes close to challenging Byron for the title, they're usually

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a paper tiger, and in this

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Speaker 4: case Dortmund is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very rare that you get the opportunity to

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Speaker 3: bet on Byron Munich on the show. But I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: I think it's Byron or nothing at this price, I

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Speaker 3: think this number would likely climb up to But I

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Speaker 3: like them. I don't mind like laying minus one thirty

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Speaker 3: five with them up to that number. I think that

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Speaker 3: they just this is a nightmare matchup for Dortmund, who

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Speaker 3: have had defensive issues. Don't want to do that against

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Speaker 3: Byron Munich. BJ is it three for three on Byron.

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Speaker 1: Here, yeah, it's three for three. Let's go back to

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Speaker 1: that Super Cup match and really what happened and how

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Speaker 1: Byron Mick was able to break Dortmand down. So what

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Speaker 1: happened is is what Byron likes to do is like

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Speaker 1: to create overloads on either left or the right. Well,

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Speaker 1: what happened is Genarby went more central, which allowed Davies

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Speaker 1: to swing in on the left and he used his

95
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Speaker 1: pace and he just shredded Dortman. Because Bellingham had to

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Speaker 1: choose who he was going to go to and who

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Speaker 1: was going to defend, he usually defended gen Arby. Davies

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Speaker 1: used his pace, get by the left back through and

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Speaker 1: two crosses to Lewandowski. That's how they scored two of

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Speaker 1: their goals. Belliam's out for this one, So I don't

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Speaker 1: really know what Dortman's going to do in the midfield

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Speaker 1: or how they're going to stop Byron's attack going forward.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a nightmare type of matchup. I think,

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Speaker 1: like you said, this is Byron or nothing. They have

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Speaker 1: close to a plus twenty three expected Golden French holl

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Speaker 1: through thirteen matches been sitting at around plus seven so

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Speaker 1: even though they're one point behind, there's a major, major

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Speaker 1: gap in these teams performances. I have Byron projected at

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Speaker 1: minus one thirty, so if you can find a minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen or better, I'll make it three for three

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Speaker 1: on the league leaders.

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Speaker 4: And the one thing, you know, Joshua Kimmich is out and

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Speaker 4: he definitely hurts this Byron midfield. But like Meja mentioned,

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Speaker 4: Bellingham has been kind of carrying the Dortman midfield, which

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Speaker 4: has otherwise been struggling. They have had issues at fullback

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Speaker 4: for years and it's been well documented. It's a major

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Speaker 4: reason why they've struggled against Bayern specifically. It's just not

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Speaker 4: a good matchup for Dortmund here. I know Marco Rose

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Speaker 4: has had success with Bladbach against Byron in the past.

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Speaker 2: But this is a very different situation.

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Speaker 4: He doesn't really have the personnel to match up here

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Speaker 4: and really affect Dortman.

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Speaker 2: Now Holland is supposed to be back.

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Speaker 4: Obviously helps the attack and I think they'll score, but

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Speaker 4: I just don't think they'll keep up right.

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Speaker 1: And both these teams press really really high, So Dorman's

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Speaker 1: going to leave a ton of space behind for you know,

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Speaker 1: all those attacking players from Byron to get behind them.

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Speaker 1: So it's a really nightmare matchup and that's why you

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Speaker 1: see Dorman's you know, thirteenth and big scoring chances allowed

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Speaker 1: this year. So yeah, it's a bad match for Dorman,

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Speaker 1: especially with no fans in the crowd. So yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: fying or nothing.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the Premier League now,

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Speaker 3: full transparency. We are recording this on Wednesday night to

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Speaker 3: get it out on Thursday morning, as we usually do.

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Speaker 3: So there are a couple matches that haven't been played,

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Speaker 3: but we will do our best to handicap each match

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Speaker 3: with the information that we have. So let's start seven

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Speaker 3: thirty am. Kicked off west Ham. They're plus three ninety

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Speaker 3: at home against Chelsea who come back that minus one

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Speaker 3: thirty five the draw plus two ninety one. Thing I

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Speaker 3: was interested to see with this price was we saw

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Speaker 3: west Ham play Liverpool at home just about a month ago,

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Speaker 3: west Ham closing around plus three thirty three. I think

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Speaker 3: Liverpool right now, oh shade better than Chelsea are. I

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Speaker 3: think they're close, but Liverpool's a little bit better. So

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Speaker 3: the fact that you're getting you're seeing west Ham at

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Speaker 3: three ninety compared to three thirty three maybe tells you

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Speaker 3: this number could come down. But I still like west Ham.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a good number. I still believe in

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Speaker 3: this team. I was on them today. What do they do?

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Speaker 3: They go out one nil and then and they have

154
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Speaker 3: a bar goal ruled out and then give up a

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Speaker 3: eighty ninth minute equalizer to Brighton. Pain but I'll go back.

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Speaker 3: I can't quit him. I can't quit David Moyes. He's

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Speaker 3: done a really good job against big clubs this season,

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Speaker 3: so I don't think Chelsea's gonna be able to just

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Speaker 3: run this team off the pitch. So give me west

160
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Speaker 3: Ham on the money line. Hopefully it stays up to high,

161
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Speaker 3: but I would probably bet it as quickly as possible

162
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Speaker 3: because I don't think it's going to last New Year.

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Speaker 3: Four to one here, BJ, what do you see in

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Speaker 3: this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I like the total in this one over two and

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Speaker 1: a half goals of plus f one oh five. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: it was kind of another concerning performance from west Ham again.

169
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Speaker 1: They went up in the second minute off the corner

170
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Speaker 1: and then Brighton kind of dominated for large stretches of

171
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Speaker 1: the first half in most of the second half until

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Speaker 1: they finally got the goal. So if Chelsea's going to

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Speaker 1: be able to dominate all that possession and dominate that

174
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Speaker 1: going forward and basically pin west Ham in which they

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Speaker 1: sat very very deep in that second half, that's probable

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Speaker 1: someome because Chelsea's a much better finishing team than Brighton is.

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Speaker 1: So we've seen it time and time again, and Anthony

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Speaker 1: has been harping on it, I think like three podcasts

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Speaker 1: in a row. But Chelsea is not the type of

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Speaker 1: team that they were last year where they just want

181
00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 1: to win one nothing. When they're up, they want to

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Speaker 1: get more and more goals. So if they score first

183
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,520
Speaker 1: in this one, it's going to open the match right up.

184
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Speaker 1: Because Chelsea when they're leading by one goal or more

185
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Speaker 1: are averaging two point five three expected goals per ninety minutes,

186
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Speaker 1: and eight of their twelve matches when they've scored first

187
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Speaker 1: has gone over two and a half goals. So I

188
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Speaker 1: have two point seventy to one goals projected for this one.

189
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Speaker 1: So I like over two and a half goals at

190
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Speaker 1: plus one on five.

191
00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,840
Speaker 3: Anthony, you have been a skeptical I guess of west

192
00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,360
Speaker 3: Ham over the past few weeks, but you're gonna change

193
00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:31,520
Speaker 3: your tune a little bit here, aren't you.

194
00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:33,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, it wasn't paying for all of us. When that

195
00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,200
Speaker 4: Neil mal Pay bicycle kick went in. I know BJ

196
00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:37,839
Speaker 4: and I had the other side there, so we will

197
00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:39,600
Speaker 4: take that one. I think it was deserved when you

198
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,520
Speaker 4: look at the quality of the chances. The var was

199
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,320
Speaker 4: really fluky. There was like a foul, then there was

200
00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,360
Speaker 4: like an off side. It was very strange. Took like

201
00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,360
Speaker 4: five minutes, not in this period of the game. But

202
00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:52,040
Speaker 4: the Seagulls are due some fortunate bounces after last year

203
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,439
Speaker 4: and the first part of this year, so we'll take

204
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Speaker 4: that one. Now that being said, I do like west

205
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Speaker 4: Ham here Chelsea's performance today. I watched the whole game,

206
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 4: felt a little lucky to get out two and three

207
00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:01,200
Speaker 4: quarters goals in.

208
00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:01,760
Speaker 2: They were bad.

209
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:06,480
Speaker 4: Watford looked extremely dangerous on the counter attack. Emmanuel Dennis

210
00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,720
Speaker 4: and Smile Tsar played really well. They actually won the

211
00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,720
Speaker 4: expected goals battle, and really it was to Chelsea midfield.

212
00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,560
Speaker 4: The engine room of this team that has dominated so

213
00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,280
Speaker 4: many teams over the last month or two just did

214
00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,400
Speaker 4: not do that at all, and they kind of snuck

215
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,640
Speaker 4: out a result late to their credit.

216
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:24,960
Speaker 2: You know, those kind of results are going to happen.

217
00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:26,920
Speaker 4: You're not always going to play your best, but west

218
00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,920
Speaker 4: Ham is a significant step up in quality of counterattacking opponent.

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Speaker 4: And I think west Ham here, like you know, we

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Speaker 4: mentioned we all liked west Ham plus a half when

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Speaker 4: they played Liverpool. I think it's another situation where you're

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Speaker 4: getting a slightly over valued favorite who's been on an

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Speaker 4: unbelievable winning run and you know, is playing like a

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Speaker 4: dominant top three team. And maybe we don't know how

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Speaker 4: good this top three really is, how much better they

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Speaker 4: really are from the rest of the league. But I'm

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Speaker 4: going to bet that Chelsea of the three is the

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Speaker 4: most vulnerable to these kind of low event games where

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Speaker 4: they're going to have to grind it out. And without

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Speaker 4: Angolo Kante, who doesn't look like it's going to play,

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Speaker 4: Reees James appears he's going to miss this game. Ben Chilwell,

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Speaker 4: they're getting into some of the reserve guys in their

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Speaker 4: main engine room and ball progression areas out wide and

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Speaker 4: in the middle of the park. I don't think it's

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Speaker 4: going to be too easy for them to break down

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Speaker 4: west Ham on the road. So I'm going to take

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Speaker 4: the Hammers. Come on you Irons at home. Plus a

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Speaker 4: half plus one twenty. Maybe a little sprinkle on the

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Speaker 4: money line too, but I think they're more likely to

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Speaker 4: take a point here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty bubbles floating everywhere. One thing that's interesting about

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Speaker 3: Chelsea Reece James coming into this match week and the

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Speaker 3: midweek was their leading scorer with five goals. I know

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Speaker 3: Lukako has been out and obviously uh Werner so, but

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Speaker 3: it's just something to keep an eye on.

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Speaker 2: They played better without Lukaku.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I know. I mean the opponents weren't as good,

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Speaker 4: but you know there's something to be said for that.

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Speaker 3: It is interesting, but I would still take them back

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Speaker 3: at everyting. All right, let's move on to one of

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Speaker 3: the teams challenging Chelsea. Chelsea right now, I should say

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Speaker 3: they're top of the table thirty three points City at

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Speaker 3: thirty two and at Liverpool, who we'll talk about next

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Speaker 3: at thirty one. They're traveling to the Black count to

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Speaker 3: take on Wolverhampton, who are six to one at home

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Speaker 3: against the Reds. Liverpool minus two twenty the drug coming

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Speaker 3: back plus three eighty. This is a ten am kickoff

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Speaker 3: on Saturday. I'm going to back Wolves like we do

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Speaker 3: this every week with Liverpool right, like the numbers out

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Speaker 3: of out of whack because they're an outlier. You're gonna

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Speaker 3: have a lot of trouble getting to this number if

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Speaker 3: you're someone who is handicapping these games. But I think

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Speaker 3: Wolves does match up okay against this team, right like

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Speaker 3: top four defense in shots allowed per ninety not penalty

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Speaker 3: expected goals for ninety and big scoring chances allowed per ninety.

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Speaker 3: So whatever, I'll take my beating with Liverpool, my weekly beating,

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Speaker 3: and right now, since they're playing midweek matches twice a week,

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Speaker 3: beating with Liverpool and I'm going to back Wolves on

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Speaker 3: the money line. BJ Please don't let me go through

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Speaker 3: this alone.

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Speaker 1: No, I'm coming with you Wolves plus one and plus

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Speaker 1: one team.

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Speaker 3: This is.

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Speaker 1: I can't tell you how much I love this matchup

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Speaker 1: for Wolves. And I mean Liverpool is overvalued here and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be overvalid against some of these smaller sides.

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Speaker 1: But Wolves is the type of team that can give

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Speaker 1: Liverpool some trouble. So first, if you're going to be Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: you got to have a good defensive structure and Lodge

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Speaker 1: has those three four to three right now because they're

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Speaker 1: only allowing one point zero two expect the goals per

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Speaker 1: ninety minute. Wolves is a very interesting team in the

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Speaker 1: fact that they do not press high, but once team

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Speaker 1: crosses the halfway line, they hunt in packs and they're

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Speaker 1: very cohesive in they're pressing, which makes it very difficult

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Speaker 1: for opponents to play through them. Because if we're Liverpool

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Speaker 1: does have a weakness offensively, it's the fact that they're

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Speaker 1: not that great versus pressure. And if you see saw

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Speaker 1: games like against Brentford and against Brighton where Liverpool kind

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Speaker 1: of struggle against teams that are going to press them

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Speaker 1: quite a bit. Wolves is the type of team that

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Speaker 1: can take advantage of that because Liverpool's thirteenth and pressure

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Speaker 1: success right allowed. Now, Liverpool may play a lot of

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Speaker 1: long balls up to Money and Sala because you know,

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Speaker 1: Virgil van Dyke is very good at playing those long

296
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Speaker 1: balls through the press, but Wolves is very good at

297
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Speaker 1: preventing entries into the box only eleven point eighty five

298
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Speaker 1: per ninety minutes, which is the eighth best mark in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League. And finally, like you mentioned, Michael, Wolves

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Speaker 1: does not allow opponents to create a lot of high

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Speaker 1: quality chances. Even though they're allowing quite a few shots,

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Speaker 1: they're very very few chances have come through them this season,

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Speaker 1: and Liverpool, on the flip side, they've conceded thirteen big

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Speaker 1: scoring chances, should be able to create maybe a few.

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Speaker 1: So I only have Liverpool spread projected at minus point nine,

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Speaker 1: so I love Wolves plus one at plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 4: The thing here is Wolves have not played the three

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Speaker 4: best teams in the league and that is my biggest

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Speaker 4: concern with them here. We have tried, We have been,

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Speaker 4: you know, looking at these Wolves numbers and saying, man, like,

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Speaker 4: you know, these defensive numbers are really impressive, like fourth

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Speaker 4: best against x G, fourth fewest shots, second fewest big

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Speaker 4: scoring chances.

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Speaker 2: But when you haven't.

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Speaker 4: Played City, you haven't played Chelsea, and you haven't played Liverpool, Okay,

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Speaker 4: maybe you're just inflated out of being playing the three

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Speaker 4: juggernauts that everybody else played that we're comparing you against.

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Speaker 4: And that's my biggest concern here. I do not trust

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Speaker 4: this Wolves defense. I understand the matchup issues that they

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Speaker 4: can present.

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Speaker 2: On the counter. Liverpool is open. I mean Everton showed

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Speaker 2: it today. The way they're playing.

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Speaker 4: They're not nearly as defensively solid as they've been in

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Speaker 4: that title winning campaign as they were they look a

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Speaker 4: lot more like last year's defense, which was conceding high

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Speaker 4: quality chances. I think Wolves have a good shot to

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Speaker 4: get on the board here. I haven't decided if I'm going

328
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Speaker 4: to pull the trigger the both teams to score yet,

329
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Speaker 4: but of the entire board this week, I usually have one.

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Speaker 4: This is the one that sticks out to me is

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Speaker 4: the potential Boat team to score. It's minus one twenty

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Speaker 4: right now at DraftKings. I think that's probably where I'll

333
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,720
Speaker 4: end up if I end up playing this match, because

334
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Speaker 4: I really think this Wolves defense might crumble once it

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Speaker 4: finally gets tested by an elite opposition.

336
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Speaker 3: From the Black Country down to the South Coast. For Darby.

337
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,280
Speaker 3: Between Southampton who are plus one forty five at home

338
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,080
Speaker 3: taking on Brighton plus one ninety five the draw plus

339
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Speaker 3: two thirty five. This is I think a strength on

340
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Speaker 3: strength matchup and a weakness on weakness matchup, right like

341
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,960
Speaker 3: the Brighton defense taking on a decent Saints offense and

342
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Speaker 3: then a Brighton offense that has struggled a little bit

343
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Speaker 3: this season. They are so deliberate it takes them twenty

344
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Speaker 3: passes to break any line. So that offense taking on

345
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Speaker 3: a Southampton defense that is there for the taking. It's

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Speaker 3: a low total all the ingredients for me to play

347
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Speaker 3: a draw. I like the draw. Plus two thirty five

348
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Speaker 3: I think is a good number here because I think

349
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Speaker 3: this game is going to be a snoozer, and that's

350
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Speaker 3: the type of match you want to bet a draw. Anthony,

351
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Speaker 3: what about you?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, my projections make these teams just about

353
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Speaker 4: debt even. I have Brighton as a tiny, tiny favorite,

354
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Speaker 4: and so I'm going to take the draw note bet

355
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Speaker 4: line at plus one point fifteen. I'll be going more

356
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Speaker 4: into this on the Action Network app, the award winning

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Speaker 4: Action Network app, and Action Network dot Com. I'll be

358
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Speaker 4: ready to preview for this game. But pretty much this

359
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,760
Speaker 4: is just a numbers play here. Southampton had a solid

360
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 4: performance against Lester, but one that did not particularly impress me.

361
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Speaker 4: The goals came off of set pieces, and weren't you know,

362
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Speaker 4: when you watch the game back, like, they weren't exactly

363
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Speaker 4: taking advantage of Lester in areas where I thought they

364
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 4: would be able to. I actually almost played Southampton didn't

365
00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 4: but ultimately, when you know, it came down to the

366
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Speaker 4: very end of the game.

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Speaker 2: This attack.

368
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Speaker 4: They're almost too frenetic in the sense that they pressed

369
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Speaker 4: so much and pressed so much that they're like stunned

370
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Speaker 4: when they finally get a good chance. And they have

371
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Speaker 4: been awful in front of goal, and I know that

372
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Speaker 4: typically regresses, but we're dealing with the team in Brighton

373
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Speaker 4: who also has been struggling in front of goal here.

374
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Speaker 4: But I think Brighton's ability to slow this game down

375
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Speaker 4: and kind of control the pace here gives them an

376
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Speaker 4: edge against Southampton, who, like Michael mentioned, does have some

377
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Speaker 4: defensive weaknesses that I think can be exploited. And Tarik

378
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 4: Lampty is back healthy and playing really well for Brighton,

379
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,400
Speaker 4: creating a lot of chances, had the assist today for

380
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Speaker 4: the goal. So I think the Seagulls are a live

381
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Speaker 4: dog here yet again.

382
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Speaker 3: And now to the bottom of the table Newcastle. They're

383
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Speaker 3: plus one thirty home favorites against Burnley who were plus

384
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Speaker 3: two ten the draw plus two to forty five. Newcastle

385
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,760
Speaker 3: there zero wins, seven losses, seven draws for seven points.

386
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Speaker 3: Right above them at ten points is Norwich City they

387
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,000
Speaker 3: have two wins, for draws and eight losses, and then

388
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Speaker 3: Burnley is one win, seven draws, five losses at ten

389
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,800
Speaker 3: points as well, so another relegation six pointer back to

390
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 3: back once for Newcastle. They burned us with a penalty

391
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,400
Speaker 3: against Norch in a game where was it the ninth minute,

392
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Speaker 3: Newcastle was down to ten men and norg still couldn't

393
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 3: put it away. But the thing that really concerned me

394
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Speaker 3: about that match was you're at home and I know

395
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Speaker 3: you're down to ten men, but you're playing a team

396
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Speaker 3: that you are battlingnect with the relegation zone. And Newcastle

397
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 3: showed no ambition to win that game in the last

398
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,120
Speaker 3: twenty minutes after they tied it up, Norich boss the game.

399
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 3: I think the possession numbers will show that out. I

400
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,400
Speaker 3: just can't. You can't trust this Newcastle team. I do think,

401
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 3: like I've said a couple of weeks, for a couple

402
00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 3: of weeks now, this Burnley team is a bet on team.

403
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: They deserve better results than they've got. They are eighth

404
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 3: and big chances created. Newcastle's twentieth in that stat on defense,

405
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 3: So I think the matchup is pretty good for Burnley here.

406
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 3: I know Newcastle does a decent job defending crosses, but

407
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,640
Speaker 3: I still believe Burnley can get it done. Plus two

408
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,679
Speaker 3: ten to go against Newcastle. I think no matter who

409
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,360
Speaker 3: it is, whether it's an MLS team, you might want

410
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 3: to take a shot on that number. There dj anything

411
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:40,879
Speaker 3: you see in this one.

412
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Speaker 1: No, it surpassed me. But I thought was kind of

413
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,640
Speaker 1: interesting is that Newcastle I realized I got the red

414
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Speaker 1: card in the fourth minute if they came out in

415
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 1: a four to four two, which is not typical of

416
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: any how. So I think he kind of conceded to

417
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:52,800
Speaker 1: the fact that his team is so used to playing

418
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,679
Speaker 1: those type of defensive for for two type structures that

419
00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 1: he just kind of conceded and went with it. And

420
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Speaker 1: obviously they hadn't played very defensive after they got the

421
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 1: red card. The big thing here is, I know Newcastle's

422
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,160
Speaker 1: not very good defending crosses, but they're actually pretty good

423
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,400
Speaker 1: at just defending set pieces in corners, which is huge

424
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 1: against Burnley. So that gives me a little pause on

425
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 1: backing Burnley here. I do have a little bit of

426
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:16,440
Speaker 1: value projected on the over, but at the same time,

427
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 1: it's hard to take an over with two teams that

428
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 1: are going to set up in defensive four to four

429
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 1: to twos and haven't really been doing much creating going

430
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 1: forward offensively, even though both their defenses have been pretty bad.

431
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 1: So it's a pass for me potentially maybe looking at

432
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 1: the over if we can get a good plus money number.

433
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Speaker 1: Other than that, I'm staying away.

434
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Speaker 3: The team right above the relegation zone Watford. They are

435
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,159
Speaker 3: eleven to one home underdogs against City, who, like I

436
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 3: said earlier, is one point off Chelsea at the top.

437
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,879
Speaker 3: City's minus four to twenty five for this game on

438
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 3: the three way money line, the draws plus five fifty.

439
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 3: This is the twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday. How

440
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 3: about this for Watford's last six matches Liverpool, Everton, Southampton, Arsenal,

441
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,199
Speaker 3: man United, Leicester, Chelsea and now City and somehow this

442
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,919
Speaker 3: team is outside of the relegation zone even though they

443
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 3: were in the relegation zone when they started this run.

444
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 3: Claudia Rinieri's did a pretty good job here and they

445
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,399
Speaker 3: did give as Anthony saying earlier, they gave Chelsea a

446
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 3: bit of a fit today before succumbing to a pretty

447
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,719
Speaker 3: tight loss. I got nothing on this one. I'm not

448
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,439
Speaker 3: taking a chance. Maybe a City under but outside of that,

449
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 3: like this, this Watford team has shown a penchant for scoring,

450
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,880
Speaker 3: so I'm a little nervous about that. I just think

451
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 3: that this scream City to nothing domination, but one of

452
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 3: those matches that it could be five nothing pretty quickly

453
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 3: bj anything here.

454
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 1: I actually do like Manchester City minus two at plus

455
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 1: one twenty. You know, Watford did have a good performance

456
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 1: against Chelsea today, the only allowed point nine expected goals.

457
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,400
Speaker 1: But really what they did is they from the get

458
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 1: go they press and pressed and press and pressed them.

459
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 1: And Chelsea looks kind of shocked at the beginning to

460
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,199
Speaker 1: be like, oh my gosh, why are they playing us

461
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 1: up so high? You know, kind of kind of expect

462
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 1: these lower sides kind of sit back and allow them

463
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,959
Speaker 1: to dictate what's going on. Well, that's not really going

464
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 1: to work against Manchester City because they're the number one

465
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League against pressure. So if Watford

466
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 1: is going to be that creag and play that open

467
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 1: in their four to one, four to one structure, Manchester

468
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 1: City is gonna have so much room to operate beyond

469
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 1: that first line of four of midfielders. And also if

470
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 1: Manchester City scores first, and this one could be at

471
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 1: a hand very very fast, because when Watford goes down

472
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,360
Speaker 1: one goal this year, which has happened quite a bit,

473
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 1: they're allowing two point zero six expected goals per ninety minutes. Additionally,

474
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: Manchester City has absolutely dominated bottom half the table one

475
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 1: point seventy five expected goals four only point five to

476
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: six expected goals allowed per match, so I have City

477
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,959
Speaker 1: spread projectored at around minus one point nine, so I

478
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 1: like the minus two at plus one twenty one.

479
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 3: Other thing, I think Watford is an interesting team. We

480
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 3: said this last episode saying that they're actually more fun

481
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:43,919
Speaker 3: to watch than maybe they get credit for under Anyara.

482
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 3: But also they're probably a little bit better than people realize.

483
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 3: Just when you think of Watford and what their expectations

484
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 3: were coming into the season, only a minus seven goal

485
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 3: differential on the season, and when you consider they lost

486
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 3: the Liverpool five nothing, it's pretty impressive. Just a team

487
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 3: to keep in your pocket, maybe another one that has

488
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: a few more big results. They already beat Man United obviously,

489
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 3: they beat Never did already and like I said, they

490
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 3: stuck with Chelsea. So just a team to maybe keep

491
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 3: in mind.

492
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm waiting on the official XG number for today

493
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 4: before I update this stat, but they were averaging, so

494
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 4: they're conceding one point eight eight expected goals. It's the

495
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 4: worst in the league for ninety minutes. But under Zisko,

496
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 4: the former manager, point eight to seven expected goals four

497
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 4: for ninety so they were about one underwater. But since

498
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 4: the run Yeri revolution, almost a full goal better per

499
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 4: ninety one point seventy three expected goals. And you mentioned

500
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 4: the teams they played. I mean they're playing better teams

501
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 4: and they're getting more chances, and so I think Ranieri

502
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 4: deserves a lot of credit for that. I think the

503
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 4: only way you look here is for the over because

504
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 4: I think Watford could score here. City, you know, is

505
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 4: not going to keep all these clean sheets, like goals

506
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 4: are going to come against them. I just don't trust

507
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 4: them to have this historic level performance. But in the

508
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 4: same way, cannot trust that Watford defense against City, who

509
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 4: could rip them apart and probably choose their score.

510
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's a conundrum there. All right, we'll flip

511
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 3: the page to leads are minus one oh five at

512
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 3: home against Brentford, who were plus two eighty five. The

513
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 3: draws plus two seventy. This is an interesting battle in

514
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 3: the middle of the table. I think the loser of

515
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 3: this match would kind of go back towards feeling a

516
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 3: little pressure of the relegation zone, and the winner obviously

517
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 3: gets a little bit more room to breathe. Leads over

518
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 3: the last seven matches are above the break even mark

519
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 3: in terms of expected goald differentially plus half a goal

520
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 3: with a two wins, three draws and two losses, so

521
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,479
Speaker 3: they've started to turn their season around a little bit.

522
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 3: It's still nothing right home about, but that number is

523
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 3: pretty similar for Watford, who have just not had the

524
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 3: type of results that Leads had. I lean towards Brentford here.

525
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 3: I'm not going to play it at the current number

526
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 3: one to see if I can get it better. I

527
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: would look towards something three to one or better, I think,

528
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 3: just with the way Leads is going. But we'll see

529
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 3: BJ What about you.

530
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm leaning towards Brentford as well. I think Leads

531
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 1: might just be a tad overvalid here have Obviously, it

532
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: was a very encouraging performance against Crystal Palace. They held

533
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: sixty one percent possession and there had a thirty six

534
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 1: percent successful pressure, which is about five percent above their

535
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 1: season average. So it looks like Bielsa's starting to get

536
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 1: his team playing like he wants him to. Now that

537
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: they're actually starting to get healthy as well, they will

538
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: have a really good advantage over Brentford in this one

539
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: because Brentford is eighteenth against pressure this season, so that's

540
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 1: a really nightmare matchup. With that being said, though, Brentford

541
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,400
Speaker 1: is an incredible counter pressing team, and we've talked about

542
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: in the past, Leeds is one of the three worst

543
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League against pressure. So even though

544
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: they'll be able to win the ball against Brentford in

545
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: the middle of the park, well they might just give

546
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: it right back to him and then give up, you know,

547
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: some potentially big scoring chances, which Brentford is very capable

548
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: of creating. So I'm waiting on a better number here.

549
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: I like Brentford plus half a goal, but I need

550
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: even money or better.

551
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 2: To bet it.

552
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 3: One of the teams that hasn't played yet by the

553
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 3: time we were recording this is Manchester United. They are

554
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 3: nearly minus two hundred favorites there minus one ninety five

555
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: against Crystal Palace, who are plus five point fifty on

556
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 3: the road. The draws plus three forty another nine am

557
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 3: kickoff on Sunday. Pallace has hit a little bit of

558
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: a rut. It's very depressing for me, but I'm I'm

559
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: still going to be backing this team. I think they

560
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: have the fourth best expected goald differential since October sixteenth,

561
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 3: which they've been a little bit unlucky in terms of

562
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 3: their results, including the loss their Villa was a little unlucky. Yeah,

563
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 3: they big get outplayed by leads. But the one goal

564
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: that they did could see was a penalty and what

565
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 3: ninety third minute. So I do think that this Palace

566
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 3: team will pay off over the long term. And also

567
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 3: don't trust this Manchester United team as far as I

568
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: can throw them, and I know that the wins of

569
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,199
Speaker 3: change are coming. Ralph Ragnick's waiting for his working papers

570
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 3: to come through. He's going to sort everything out. He's

571
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 3: going to magically fix this defense. I don't buy it yet,

572
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 3: so I'll take a shot on Palace, a small bet

573
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 3: on the money line. Bjy come join me on the Eagles.

574
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Eagles. Plus one, you know, like

575
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: you said right now, hasn't got his work permit yet,

576
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: so Michael Carrick will be in charge, which means Manchester

577
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: United will continue to probably have no structure when it

578
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 1: comes to depressing. It was easy for Character set up

579
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: very defensively against Chelsea because Chelsea was going to have

580
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: a lot of large share of the possession. You know,

581
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 1: Manchester United has been struggling defensively, so he said, you

582
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 1: know what, let's just set up like we have against

583
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 1: bigger sides, like only Gung Solciales down in years pass

584
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: against bigger sides and let's just try to hit on

585
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 1: the counter. It worked, you know, they drew one one,

586
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: which is a good result for them. But are they

587
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: really going to do that against Crystal Palace, who honestly

588
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 1: plays that exact same style where they love to sit

589
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: deep and then hit of teams on the counter. So

590
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: I don't really see how Manchester United can just sit

591
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: deep against a team like Crystal Palace. Chrystal Palace is

592
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: the second most pressures in the Premier League this season,

593
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 1: but a majority of them come once teams cross the

594
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: halfway points. So if Chris Palace is able to win

595
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: the ball in the middle of the park, which they

596
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 1: should be able to, they're going to just rip apart

597
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 1: Manchester United's defense, which has been terrible in transition. So

598
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 1: we'll see if Kerrot plays three in the midfield, if

599
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: he puts Mattich in there and you know, gives him

600
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: a little bit more structure, or if he decides to

601
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: go with this traditional four two three one, if he

602
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 1: goes to the four to two three one, that's that's

603
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: not good because at time and time again mctomanay and

604
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: Fred have shown that they don't really know what they're

605
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 1: doing that in transition everything is just so open between

606
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: them and the last line of defense. Michiean has along

607
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 1: as one point eight expected goals, so it shows in

608
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: the numbers. So I love Crystal Palace plus one at

609
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen.

610
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 3: Antony, anything you're seeing out of this game, or you know,

611
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 3: maybe Manchester United long term for people betting at home.

612
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would bank on a lot of defensive improvement immediately.

613
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 4: And Ragnick is notorious for his pressing, but more so

614
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 4: his defensive pressing in the sense that he, similar to

615
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 4: Ralph Hasenhudel, in some ways, has set up a system

616
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 4: that makes you effective at preventing opponents from playing through you.

617
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 4: And they're very good at Ragnik teams, most notably Leipzig.

618
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 4: They were very good at preventing teams from easy access

619
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 4: to their penalty area, which was probably the number one

620
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 4: thing United was struggling with at the very end of Ola.

621
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 4: Does it mean that there's going to be personnel issues

622
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 4: still that exists? Yes, but you can already see with

623
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 4: Fred and mcdonmoney. Are they great passing midfielders.

624
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: No?

625
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 4: But can they be good defensive midfielders who are asked

626
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 4: to run around a lot? I think they can be.

627
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 4: So I'm banking on some improvement here defensively from United.

628
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 4: As far as this game specifically goes, I'm going to

629
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 4: pass for now. I want to see how they look

630
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 4: against Arsenal. Again, We're recording this prior to that game,

631
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 4: so I'm gonna be very interested to see. Similar to

632
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 4: what BJ said in the sense that okay, United showed

633
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 4: they can defend in a low block and can see

634
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 4: a bunch of chances and kind of get let off

635
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 4: the hook a little bit. But can they now go

636
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 4: be the one asked to have the ball and break

637
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 4: down a team under Carrick? I think that remains to

638
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 4: be seen. Jane Sancho being in the team makes them better,

639
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 4: so that's encouraging. And so I'm kind of in a

640
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 4: wait and see mode on United, but I'm going to

641
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 4: be probably playing some begrudging United unders in the future

642
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 4: as I am banking on some defensive regression because they're

643
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 4: not talent wise the fourteenth best defense even if Ron

644
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 4: is out, even if you know they're they're shorthanded a

645
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 4: little bit. Also, I'd expect to see some Dean Henderson once.

646
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: Rynan gets in there.

647
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 4: I think dehyes Day is maybe numbered, which I think

648
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 4: could be an upgrade.

649
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 3: To We'll move on to another new manager. This guy's

650
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 3: been there for almost a month now. That's Antonio Conte.

651
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: He's been at Spurs, who are minus two sixty five

652
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 3: home favorites against North City seven to one on the

653
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: road the drus plus four twenty five. This is another

654
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 3: nine am kickoff on Sunday, Norwich City. I'm beaten in

655
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: four here they come climbing the table and what did

656
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: we say before Dean Smith got there? When they when

657
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: they announce his higher he did such a good job

658
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 3: of immediately turning that aston Villa defense around. He seems

659
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 3: to just have a way to get into a club,

660
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 3: completely organize them and make them tough to break down.

661
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: That's what he's done here in his four matches in charge.

662
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,959
Speaker 3: Under an expectacle point eighty six expectacles allowed per ninety

663
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: and that is, including the penalty that they gave up

664
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 3: against Newcastle. Pretty impressive. I think the under here is interesting,

665
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 3: but under two and a half is plus money plus

666
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 3: one twenty five and we know that the Spurs team

667
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 3: is really struggling to just be a cohesive offensive unit.

668
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 3: It'll take Conte some time. It's uh. He's said as much,

669
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 3: basically that maybe this season might be too soon to

670
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: even expect it. So I'm gonna look towards the under here.

671
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: I was looking at the job, but I do think

672
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 3: that Spurs has the opportunity here to maybe win, you know,

673
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: one nil or two nil, just on their talent. Anthony,

674
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: what do you want to say about your Tottenham hot

675
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 3: spare this week?

676
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 4: Well, you know, I've now had two listeners who have said,

677
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 4: you know, why does BJ Cunningham hate Tottenham so much?

678
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 4: You know, what have they ever done to him? One

679
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 4: said that, you know, we got to get him turned

680
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 4: around and convert him. So I'm guessing this person was

681
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 4: a Tottenham fan. So I'm wondering if BJ is going

682
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 4: to be fading Tottenham again. Same thing in the United situation.

683
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 4: It's hard enough when we don't know what happened in

684
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 4: the game. But it gets even harder when there's a

685
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 4: manager change and we are desperately wanting data to see

686
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 4: how is this team playing.

687
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 2: Are they getting better, are they playing worse?

688
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 4: Are the changes happening that we'd expect to see with

689
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 4: a content or a ragnet team.

690
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 2: So for now I'm going to pass here.

691
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 4: Don't be surprised if you know there's a Norche plus

692
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 4: one and a half floating around come Sunday that I'm

693
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 4: on it. But for now this is a pass.

694
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 2: Wait and see how they look against Brentford.

695
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 4: Follow us in the app we'll have our picks in

696
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 4: more analysis as far as this matchup goes. I didn't

697
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 4: think Norge were good at all against Newcastle. They got

698
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 4: I mean, how much of that game can you even

699
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 4: really take defensively when they were down to nine men

700
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 4: or ten men, but then they also concede a penalty.

701
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 4: There's just a lot of randomness in that number. I

702
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 4: thought Allen's maximum found a lot of space in that

703
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 4: Norwich midfield, even with them being down a man, which

704
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 4: is a little concerning playing against Tottenham who has guys

705
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 4: who are We're pretty good in space.

706
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: But overall probably going to stay away here.

707
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 4: Bj will you be fading Tottenham this week or the

708
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 4: first non fade of the season.

709
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: I would like to wait and see what happens against

710
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: Brentford because if Brentford, you know, we're all on Brentford

711
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: tomorrow at least in some capacity. If that bet cashes,

712
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,959
Speaker 1: which we all hope it does, then I will probably

713
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: playing Norwich. But at the same time, obviously I know

714
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 1: Dean Smith has been able to reorganize this defense and

715
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: they played a little bit better, But at the same time,

716
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: their defensive numbers before him were really, really, really bad.

717
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: And Tottenham does have attacking talent. I wull admit it.

718
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 1: They do have attacking talent that can get through the

719
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: Norwich defense just like that. So it's a pass for

720
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: me right now. I do have a little bit of

721
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: value on Norwich. You know, those numbers will improve if

722
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: Tottenham plays bad on Thursday. But man, I know, indeed

723
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: Smith has done a great job with the defense so far,

724
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: but I just can't get past those numbers that they

725
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: had under the previous manager. So it's passed for me

726
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 1: right now. But I'll enjoy watching Tottenam lose. That's fine

727
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: with things.

728
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the reason I like the unders.

729
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 3: You'd have to expect Tottenham to be the one to

730
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: carry the water to get it over to three goals,

731
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 3: and I don't trust them to do that. Another Sunday

732
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 3: morning kickoff, this one eleven thirty am Aston Villa plus

733
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 3: one fifty home favorites against Leicester City plus one eighty

734
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 3: the draws plus two forty five. Two teams I can't

735
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 3: figure out, So I'm just going to move this one

736
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 3: over to you, Anthony.

737
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love aston Villa here at home.

738
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 4: I think these two teams based on their expected goals numbers,

739
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 4: you know, they suggest that Lester is the better team.

740
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 4: Hence the reason that it's a pick them at aston

741
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 4: Villa when you look at recent form, and I tend

742
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 4: to find recent form to be a little bit biased,

743
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 4: and you know, you can kind of it's kind of

744
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 4: pundit talk like, oh, they've played well recently, But in

745
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 4: this case, with aston Villa having a new manager and

746
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 4: improving them defensively, I think it actually applies when you

747
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 4: look at aston Villa today. They lost two one to City,

748
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 4: but I actually thought they played really well defensively. They

749
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 4: held City to one expected goal a little over one

750
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 4: expected goal The one goal was like a twenty five

751
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 4: yard shot. Emmy Martinez was late to see it. It got

752
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 4: in on the near post. You expect Martinez to be better.

753
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 4: He's been quite poor this year at shot stopping. It's

754
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 4: a major reason they're running well under their expected goals.

755
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 4: Defensively and going forward, they created almost a full expected

756
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 4: goal and did score. So you're starting to see some

757
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 4: improvement with the strike group, and the attackers have had

758
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 4: their issues, but there's still enough talent here. The one

759
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 4: thing that I'm concerned about in this game is that

760
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 4: Lester is very good on the counter. Now, under the

761
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 4: Dean Smith era, i'd be pretty concerned. I'd be more

762
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 4: concerned about that because they really, towards the end of

763
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 4: his reign struggled against teams who were hitting them quickly

764
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,040
Speaker 4: on the break. But at least look from what I

765
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 4: saw today and from what I watched when they played

766
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 4: Brighton that they looked much more compact at the back,

767
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 4: and I think they'll be able to frustrate Lesser, who

768
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: again does not have good ball progression numbers. They're very

769
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 4: reliant on counter attacks to score. They're very reliant on

770
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 4: kind of magicking up goals that have not really great moves,

771
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 4: and so I think Villa at home here is a

772
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 4: great spot to back Gerard's boys at a good number

773
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 4: where they're barely favored.

774
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 3: I'm gonna paint a picture for you from this afternoon.

775
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: I'm sitting on my couch. I'm feeling better about Everdent

776
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 3: because it's two to one. They as soon as Liverpool

777
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 3: went up to nail that Everdence started to play better.

778
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 3: It looked like maybe rap It beneath has figured out

779
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 3: that trying to press Liverpool outpress them was not a

780
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: good idea. Sitting on the couch thinking this team's going

781
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 3: to get back into it. They have a direct kick

782
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 3: deep in Liverpool territory than a corner kick, and I'm up.

783
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 3: I'm on the edge of my seat. My wife comes

784
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 3: home from work and she sees Mohammed Sala just pick

785
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 3: a ball off of Seamus Coleman's foot and score, and

786
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 3: she just goes, why do you even watch this team like?

787
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 3: They just make you miserable? And she's right, And that

788
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 3: is how I'll segue into Everton, who are home underdogs

789
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: plus two twenty five against Arsenal plus one fifteen on

790
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 3: the road. The Jaws plus two fifty five. I'm gonna

791
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 3: do it again. The definition of a saturity, according to

792
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 3: Albert Einstein, is doing the same thing over and over again,

793
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 3: expecting different results. And that is me backing Everytton whoever

794
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 3: won since September, since September when they beat nord City. Beautiful, beautiful, beautiful,

795
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 3: misery here, but the numbers too high. This is a

796
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 3: opportunity to bilow on a team that's getting healthier and

797
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 3: did show some signs when when Damari Gray and Andres

798
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 3: Townsend are in their right roles and they do have

799
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 3: a focal point up top like Salmon Rondan shouldn't be

800
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 3: the one, but they do have one up top. When

801
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 3: everyone's in the right spot, the team is al right. Unfortunately,

802
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 3: they still find a way to lose. Whatever, I'm gonna

803
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 3: do it. Someone come with me, bj.

804
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, all come. Well, this is the Cunningham leaboff Darby

805
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: on Monday afternoon, so this should be a lot of fun. Listen,

806
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 1: we said it last week. Everton may be in the

807
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: worst form of any team in the really maybe outside

808
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 1: of Newcastle. Right now, they're not that bad and there

809
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: is no reason why Arsenal should be plus one fifteen

810
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: on the road against this team. I understand the injury concerns,

811
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 1: but even without Dominie Calvert Lewin for a large stretch

812
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: of this season, Everton still only has a minus two

813
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 1: point three to two expected goal of French. Well, that's

814
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: really not that bad. That's just a mid table side.

815
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: And really what, Arsenal's not going to be able to

816
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: attack Everton or exploit them the way that Liverpool did

817
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: because Arsenal doesn't press. They are dead last and passes

818
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: for defensive action while Everton offensively is one of the

819
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: worst teams against pressure, so are still not gonna be

820
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 1: able to beat them that way. Arsenal defensively overall for

821
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,439
Speaker 1: the season has been horrible. They're allowing around one point

822
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 1: seven non penalty expectacles for match. Obviously a lot of

823
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: that came against some of the bigger sides, but still

824
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: it's still not a great number when you're sitting in

825
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: the bottom five of the expectacles allowed portion of the table. Offensively,

826
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: Everton still tenth in non penalty expected goals, fifth in

827
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 1: box entries, and the biggest thing there's still second and

828
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 1: crosses into the opponent's penalty. There are Arsenal's third worst

829
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 1: and allowing crosses in at the penalty box. So I

830
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: get Everton's defensive troubles, I get all the injury issues,

831
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: but I do not get Arsenal at their current state

832
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: being plus one fifteen on the road. So I have

833
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 1: this match projected closer to a pick them. So I

834
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 1: like Everton plus half a goal at minus one thirty five.

835
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 3: It's fatalistic to think this way, but it's also it's

836
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 3: been like every mistake Everton has made, no matter where

837
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 3: they make it on the pitch, it ends up in

838
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 3: the back of the net. And you saw that twice

839
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 3: today against Liverpool with two turnovers and yeah they were

840
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 3: bad ones, but still some defensive luck here there and

841
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 3: joined Pickford, by the way, played pretty well, so that

842
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 3: game could have been a lot worse off than it

843
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: actually was. Anthony, you love love to beat up on

844
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 3: my Toffees. I don't think you've bet them once this season,

845
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 3: but I think we might be able to get you

846
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 3: on the train because they're going up against ours. No.

847
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: I bet Everton one time this year.

848
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 4: They played pretty poorly against Burnley, but they magic up

849
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 4: like three or four insane minutes and one three to one,

850
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 4: so Everton in my good graces for that one win.

851
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: I have decided and just put a bed in while BJ.

852
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 4: Was giving his handicap on the game that I am

853
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 4: rolling and I am back on the Toffees.

854
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 2: Here I agree with BJ. This is a good by

855
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:12,280
Speaker 2: low spot.

856
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 4: As good as it's going to get a matchup that

857
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 4: I really like. I wanted to buy low on Everton

858
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 4: last week, but you know, Liverpool in a revenge spot

859
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 4: after what happened to Van Dyke last year in the

860
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 4: matchup we talked about it. Bet regret was not just

861
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 4: laying the goal in a half, squaring out and taking Liverpool.

862
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 2: This is a much better matchup.

863
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 4: Arsenal again does not get margin and so that's a

864
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: big problem when you play teams who are competent. And

865
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 4: I think this has draw written all over it. This

866
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 4: has one written all over it. When you look at

867
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 4: Everton's expected goals, yes they have not won a game

868
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 4: in a million years, but they played even with United,

869
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 4: they were a little worse in west Ham, they got

870
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:47,879
Speaker 4: beat by Watford, they were.

871
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 2: A little worse than Wolves.

872
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 4: Overall, even with Tottenham and then even with Brentford. They've

873
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 4: played Okay, like BJ mentioned, and so I think when

874
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 4: you look here, you're not going to find a better

875
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 4: buylow spot than this game at home against Arsenal. And

876
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 4: I'm going to be on the Toffees too, so we'll

877
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 4: all If they lose, Michael, I might banish them forever.

878
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 1: Someone's gonna be disappointed.

879
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 3: It's a great, great or it.

880
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 1: Could be one. We're both gonna want to hate, We're

881
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 1: both gonna want to just We're both just gonna want

882
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 1: to be somewhere else than watching this match.

883
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, under the Goodison lights on Monday evening. I don't

884
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 3: know if anyone's going to be there because the crowd

885
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 3: does not nobody no everdon fans. I want to go

886
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 3: to the matches right now, watch this team managed by

887
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 3: a former Liverpool Champions League winner. All right, on that

888
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 3: positive note, we will move on to Germany and the Bundesliga.

889
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 3: Our favorite bets there and mine's favorite team over there

890
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: right now is Mines and that's where I'm going. Plus

891
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 3: one sixty at home against Wolfsburg. This is the nine

892
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 3: thirty am kickoff on Saturday. I actually like to draw

893
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: here like mine's Wolfsburg two, very stoic defensive teams near

894
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 3: the top of Bundesliga. In terms of defensive metrics, a

895
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 3: Bundesliga is a little bit insane, but I think it's

896
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 3: pretty good value here, better than plus two thirty. So

897
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 3: that's my favorite bet in Germany. A draw of all things, Anthony,

898
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 3: what about you?

899
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm back on the marsh Boys and RB Leipzig.

900
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 4: They play Friday afternoon against Ugnon Berlin. This is just

901
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 4: a classic Leipzig. Everybody's down on them again. They had

902
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 4: a terrible performance against Leverkusen, but there was a few

903
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 4: ways in which Leverkusen is kind of well suited to

904
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 4: take advantage of the frailties of Leipzig in the sense

905
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,720
Speaker 4: that Leverkusin's very good at exploiting teams on the wings.

906
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 4: Leverkusen is very good at playing that high frenetic pace

907
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,959
Speaker 4: kind of game, and they're very good at hitting balls

908
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 4: over the top and then using their pace to get

909
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 4: in behind.

910
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 2: While they did all that against Leipzig, but what does

911
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 2: Zunion do None of that.

912
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 4: They're a very industrious defensive first side who is vastly overperforming.

913
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 4: They're a little bit of a luck box, as we say,

914
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 4: they're expected goals numbers are in the red. They have

915
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 4: more chances allowed than created this season, yet they find

916
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 4: themselves with five wins and three losses and they sit

917
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 4: sixth in the Bundesliga, whereas Leipzig is actually below them

918
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 4: in eighth despite significantly better metrics across the board.

919
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 2: This is a situation where Leipzig.

920
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 4: Should dominate the game, should dominate the possession, should dominate

921
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 4: the chances and should get a win. Un know, not

922
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 4: the kind of team that I'm afraid to back Leipzig against.

923
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 4: So give me marsh and the boys and Leipzig on

924
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,879
Speaker 4: the money line minus one ten. I like it after

925
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 4: one to twenty BJ.

926
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 3: What about you, oh man?

927
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 1: I like ruther Firth plus two against Leverkusen. Man, this

928
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: ruther Firth team is going to break my heart repeatedly

929
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 1: this season because this is Germany's biggest overperformer versus their

930
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 1: biggest underperformer. Leverkusen this season has a plus ten actual

931
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 1: goal differential, but they're expected gold differential is around even

932
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: ruther Firth is in dead last and they have a

933
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 1: negative twenty eight actual gold differential, but they're expecting gold

934
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,919
Speaker 1: diferential is only around minus thirteen. So they're bad. They're

935
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 1: just not as bad as it seems like. One of

936
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 1: the worst teams in all you know, the five leagues

937
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 1: in Europe and Leverkusen we've talked about it offensively. They're

938
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 1: so overrated it's not even funny. They're thirteenth in shots

939
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: per ninety sixteenth and big scoring chances and seventeenth and

940
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: cross is completed in the eighteen yard box. But somehow

941
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 1: they're in third place and they've scored twenty eight goals

942
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: this season. The main reason for that is because teams

943
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: like Leverkusen this kind of applies to Real Madrid too,

944
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 1: is that a lot of their chances don't really come

945
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 1: inside the six yard box. It's all kind of around that.

946
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 1: So based on expected goals, you know, your chances of

947
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 1: scoring are obviously a lot higher when you're inside the

948
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: six yard box. Leverkusen has the fewest shots inside the

949
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 1: six yard box of anybody in the Bundesliga season, which

950
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 1: is kind of crazy to think about.

951
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 2: They're tied your boy, Patrick Shick.

952
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're tied with Armenia BFL with seven total shots

953
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: in the six yard box. And I mean, listen, I

954
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: can't find a lot of positives with growth there. Other

955
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: than they're just they're not as bad as it seems.

956
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 1: They have lost eleven straight matches, but they're going to

957
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: improve based on what their metrics are showing us. They

958
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 1: obviously a couple of weeks ago that I mean, they

959
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: just give six goals to Haffenheim, so it's hard to

960
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: sit here and say anything good about them. But you know,

961
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:03,280
Speaker 1: couple weeks ago they lost very in painful fashion to Frankfurt.

962
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 1: So this is a numbers play. It's too high. There's

963
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: no other way to describe it. That's just too high.

964
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: So i'll like grew with the first plus two at

965
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 1: minus one point.

966
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 3: I think we're going to join you on that money line.

967
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was going to be I told Anthony that

968
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: should have been in his money line play.

969
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 2: I did. I did not make it my money.

970
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 3: That sounds like just a vat of paint there.

971
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh.

972
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 4: So so I'm actually I just ran through it. I

973
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 4: bet them five times this year. Three of those five

974
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 4: the losing goal came in stoppage time. So they're plus

975
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 4: one against Wolfsburg conceee a stoppage time penalty, lose to

976
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 4: nil to one down to Colne plus one and a quarter,

977
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 4: concede a stoppage time counter.

978
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: Lose three to one.

979
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 4: Frankfurt score in stoppage time to catch the plus a

980
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 4: half and then concede thirty seconds later to lose the

981
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 4: plus a half. Just pain all over with this team.

982
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 4: But I will be joining bj on the plus two.

983
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 3: It sounds like our kind of team.

984
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have a one point and look, look the

985
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 2: first point horrible.

986
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 4: They're getting relegated at one at one point and I

987
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 4: bet in that game too, and they completely dominated well

988
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 4: yeah up.

989
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: The man on a BFL I believe five. They dominated

990
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 1: it and somehow I dided one to one. And that

991
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 1: was like the second match of the season where we're like, hey,

992
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 1: maybe this team's not that bad, you know, and then

993
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 1: they go on and lose eleven straight.

994
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 3: So I think that's enough bruther Firs talk for this week.

995
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 3: We'll get to them again. I'm sure on Mondays.

996
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 4: They're hosting un and Berlin next week, so yeah, yeah,

997
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 4: we'll get to them.

998
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 3: We'll get to them. Yeah, I'm sure this is a

999
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 3: team that you will be hearing a lot about over

1000
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 3: the course of the next few months. Let's move to Syria.

1001
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 3: BJ what's your favorite bet at Italy this week?

1002
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 1: Boloonia drawn no Bett minus one ten against Fiorentina, the

1003
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: team that's on my list. This line should not be

1004
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 1: a pick them. Bolognia should be favored Fiorentina. This season,

1005
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 1: we've talked about a lot twenty four goals, only fourteen

1006
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: have come from open play, and they've only created around

1007
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: eighteen non penalty expected goals in fifteen matches. Bolognia defensively

1008
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 1: has been really good at not allowing a lot of

1009
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: high quality chances their third and big scoring chances allowed.

1010
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: They're also due for some positive aggression defensively, They've allowed

1011
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: twenty four goals but only little over eighteen expected goals.

1012
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: Fiorentina provides no resistance in terms of pressing. They have

1013
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 1: the fewest pressures of anybody in Syria, as that will

1014
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 1: allow Blowna to play out of the back pretty easily

1015
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 1: and get the ball moving forward. And Fiorentina's road form

1016
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: is just horrendous. So I have blown you projected at

1017
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 1: plus one oh six, So I love Joono bet at

1018
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 1: minus one ten.

1019
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,399
Speaker 4: Anthony, Yeah, that Fiorentina attack is looking a little bit

1020
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 4: better and i'd expect that to continue, but for now

1021
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 4: we're not there yet. Whatever, Vlohovich still overrated, hoping Toddham

1022
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:34,279
Speaker 4: doesn't buy him in January. That being set, my favorite guy,

1023
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 4: Jose Mourinho got an under in for me yesterday and

1024
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,240
Speaker 4: I'm going back to the well. When you watch Roma

1025
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 4: games the last three weeks compared to the month or

1026
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 4: two prior to that, it is night and day how

1027
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 4: different they're playing. The defense has improved, the attack has

1028
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 4: gotten worse. They are not nearly as open at the back,

1029
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 4: and now they're playing the best attacking team in Italy

1030
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 4: in inter Milan under three goals is minus one to

1031
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 4: I think Marinho is gonna have the same approach to

1032
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 4: this game as he has in most big games against

1033
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 4: teams who are better than him, which Inter most certainly is.

1034
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 4: And Zogie and Inter are playing with more possession. I

1035
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 4: think that sets up for a lot of stale possession here,

1036
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 4: a lot of bad scoring chances for Inter, where Marinho

1037
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 4: sides tend to be compact, let you take bad shots,

1038
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 4: not give you high clear chances, which is how Inter

1039
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 4: gets most of their attacks.

1040
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 2: And again the market.

1041
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 4: Is just not pricing in this sea change in how

1042
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 4: Marinho's managing since they've had some blown leads and so

1043
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 4: I think they're going to be conservative again and I'm

1044
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 4: gonna play under three goals and minus one twenty.

1045
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 3: And now we will head to Spain for La Liga.

1046
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 3: Rea Associate dot plus two thirty five underdogs against Real

1047
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 3: Madrid on Saturday three pm. I like Associate Dot here

1048
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 3: they were unlucky in their lost Espanol. In their last

1049
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,840
Speaker 3: time out in Real Madrid, I got very lucky again

1050
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 3: taking on our boys from Bilbao, winning one nil despite

1051
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 3: getting basically doubled.

1052
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 1: Up on x G.

1053
00:45:57,600 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 3: So this is a huge match too in terms of

1054
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 3: the table. But for La Liga, Real Madrid now I

1055
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:05,359
Speaker 3: think is seven points clear. Sociodad and at Letti are

1056
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 3: both at twenty nine points with Madrid at thirty six.

1057
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 3: This is a must win game for sociodd if they

1058
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 3: want to stay within reach of Real Madrid, which we

1059
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: would love them to do because if you listen to

1060
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 3: our preview show from before the season, we all like

1061
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 3: punt on Sociodad to win La Liga. I'm so holding

1062
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 3: that ticket. I'm very ready to rip it up, though

1063
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 3: hopefully not this Saturday. So I'll take Socia Dodd plus

1064
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 3: two thirty five on the money line taking on Real

1065
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 3: Madrid BJ.

1066
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 1: It's going to be Anthony's fault if we lose that ticket,

1067
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: because I think after they beat some lower ends side

1068
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: he messaged all of us and said Socio DoD is

1069
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: winning La Liga and what have they done since then?

1070
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,959
Speaker 1: I don't think they've won, So we can all blame

1071
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 1: Anthony for that one. They lost one game, No, they's

1072
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: they've lost one and they've drawn one and now Real

1073
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 1: Madrid Lux Box has taken like a six point lead

1074
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 1: on him, so it's all your fault. But I like

1075
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 1: Savilla plus one hundred at home against Via Real. This

1076
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: is too low for one of the ten best teams

1077
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 1: in all of Europe. Sevilla has a plus zero point

1078
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 1: seventy three non penalty expected gold differential. That's the eighth

1079
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: best mark among your top five beliefs. Secondly, they play

1080
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 1: a very pragmatic, you know, build up, slow style, building

1081
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,719
Speaker 1: out for the back, keeping the ball, getting good possession

1082
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 1: going forward and shows. I mean they're controlling sixty three

1083
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: percent of the possession on average this season even though

1084
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 1: they play slow. Though they're very direct and they're attacking

1085
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 1: because they're sixth in box entries, seventh in progressive passes

1086
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: in first and crosses completed in the eighteen yard box.

1087
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 1: And that's huge because Viiral's defense is allowed the eighth

1088
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:33,240
Speaker 1: most crosses into their own penalty era, so Viial doesn't

1089
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 1: really provide much resistance when you're trying to play out

1090
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 1: of the back. Uniam Ras is eleventh in pressures per

1091
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: ninety inside the final third, so Sevia will be able

1092
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,320
Speaker 1: to play out of the back and put those combinations

1093
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 1: passes together and move the ball forward and likely control

1094
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,359
Speaker 1: out of the possession. And really what happens is Via

1095
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: Real is when they have to play some of these

1096
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 1: bigger sides or sides that can control possession, and I'm

1097
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 1: talking like Real Madrid, Athletico Madrid and Barcelona. They obviously

1098
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 1: can play a very good defensive structure, but when they

1099
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 1: play some of the smaller sides, they're used to having

1100
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 1: the ball. I mean, they're averaging sixty percent possession this season,

1101
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: but you know, playing those bigger sides, having to play

1102
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 1: those defensive low blocks, it hasn't worked out well this season.

1103
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 1: They've lost on expected goals to Barcar, Real Madrid and

1104
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: Athletico Madrida combined around seven expected goals to around two

1105
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: and a half. So I think this is a great

1106
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: spot for SVIAT to dominate possession, build up play from

1107
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 1: the back, get some progressive passes going forward in the

1108
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 1: penalty box. I have them projected at minus one forty,

1109
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 1: so I think there's value on them at plus one hundred.

1110
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:28,759
Speaker 3: All right, BJ and we'll stay with you for our

1111
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 3: tour through France and League. Do you have a play

1112
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 3: for us?

1113
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: I absolutely have a play for us this weekend. I

1114
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: think this might be a grouper here. Lens against PSG.

1115
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 1: I love Lens plus one at minus one thirty. They

1116
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:46,240
Speaker 1: drew too to today with Claremontfilt. It wasn't a great

1117
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 1: showing from them. They gave up two leads. But this

1118
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: is a spot that I question if PSG is actually

1119
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: going to care here because they are leading league on

1120
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: by twelve points. Neymar is out. They played in the

1121
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:02,439
Speaker 1: midweek against Nice. Nice held them to a zero zero draw.

1122
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: Obviously they have a Champions League match coming up that

1123
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 1: doesn't really mean anything, but with all these injuries, Nymar

1124
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 1: being out, I question how seriously they're going to take

1125
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: this match and this Lens team. I've been talking about

1126
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: it over and over again. They're really, really, really good.

1127
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 1: They're averaging like one point nine expected goals per match.

1128
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,280
Speaker 1: They're top five and pretty much every single offensive metric

1129
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 1: we look at, including big scoring chances. The big thing though,

1130
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: is that when they've played the big boys in France

1131
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 1: this season, they have not been scared at all. They

1132
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 1: have beaten Monaco, Lil and Marseille and the two other

1133
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: big teams they played were Leon and Renes, and they

1134
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 1: won the expected goals battle in both of those but

1135
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 1: didn't get the results they deserve. So they will be ready.

1136
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,800
Speaker 1: They'll be at home. PSG when they're playing big teams

1137
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: in France this season have not played very well. Got

1138
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 1: it out a two to one win over leyone, drew

1139
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: with Marseille nil nil, lost on the road to Renees

1140
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: to nothing, that needed a late winner to beat Lil

1141
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 1: to one, and like I said on Wednesday, they were

1142
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,399
Speaker 1: held to a zero zero draw with Nice. So they're

1143
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,760
Speaker 1: basically just beating up on a lot of the smaller sides.

1144
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 1: So with it being their fit match in fifteen days

1145
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 1: maymar being out, I only have PSG projected at minus

1146
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: one twenty one so I love one of my favorite

1147
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 1: teams in all of Euroup Lens plus one at minus

1148
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:10,319
Speaker 1: one thirty at home.

1149
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 4: All right, follow me in the Action Network app. You

1150
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 4: know that I've pretty much just been blindly fading PSG

1151
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 4: in Liga for the last five six weeks. Set Atien

1152
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:22,720
Speaker 4: was up up a goal at half and then crumbled,

1153
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 4: gave up too late, including one in stoppage time to

1154
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 4: lose that one. But nice, never in doubt plus one

1155
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:28,439
Speaker 4: and a half we fade them again.

1156
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 2: It's very similar to.

1157
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 4: The PSG road spot where they had to go to

1158
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,760
Speaker 4: Marseille a few weeks back. Plus one came out flat,

1159
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 4: got a red card, never looked like scoring, never did

1160
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 4: score at the game. I didn't know. I think there's

1161
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 4: going to be a similar spot here. Great look on Lens, who,

1162
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 4: as Bja has said, is great. But I just want

1163
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 4: to keep fading PSG because they are not very good.

1164
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 4: We might have to sprinkle some money line too.

1165
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 3: We might, No, we will, we will be as Yeah,

1166
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 3: all right, let's move on to our favorite underdogs of

1167
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 3: the week. Once again. I will tell you to bet

1168
00:50:59,880 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 3: the lightly, if at all, because they are underdogs for

1169
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 3: a reason, So tread carefully. I'm gonna do it. I

1170
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 3: originally was not gonna go here, but I'm going to

1171
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 3: because I am a masochist. So I'm gonna take everydon

1172
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 3: plus two twenty five on Take you on Arsenal Monday

1173
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 3: Afternoon Monday Night Football. Like we've said, this is just

1174
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 3: the line is just inflated on Arsenal. Anthony said it.

1175
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 3: It's a great Bilo spot on Everden. So I'm gonna

1176
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 3: do that To kick off our parlay BJ who's your

1177
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 3: favorite hunderdog this week?

1178
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 1: I like Venetia plus two fifty five at home against Verona's.

1179
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 1: Verona team has really just been outperforming offensively. They've scored

1180
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,439
Speaker 1: twenty eight goals, but I have only created around twenty one

1181
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 1: expected goals. A lot of that's due to Diego Simoni's kid, Giovanni,

1182
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: has nine goals off of around four expected coals this season,

1183
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: so I don't. I honestly, that's just going to regress.

1184
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 1: He's not that level of striker yet. He might be,

1185
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 1: but who knows. There's not a lot of positives with

1186
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: Venicia right now. There just isn't. They're dead last offensively

1187
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 1: and totally expected goals seventeenth defensively. In expected goals as well,

1188
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 1: but they are eighth in a big scoring chances allowed,

1189
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 1: and they do press quite a bit. And Verona is

1190
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 1: susceptible to getting beat against pressure because they're fifteenth in

1191
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:16,800
Speaker 1: offensive passes per defensive action. So this is a spot

1192
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 1: where I really don't think Verona should be a decent

1193
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 1: favorite against one of the bottom five sides. So I

1194
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 1: like Venezia plus two to fifty five.

1195
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 3: Anthony wrap us up here.

1196
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 4: John Pierro Gasparini has done it again, Ladies and gentlemen.

1197
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 4: I wrote earlier in the year about six seven matches in.

1198
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 4: I was like, okay, what's wrong with that? Alonta not

1199
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 4: creating chances? They are looking very sluggish, they're not pressing

1200
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 4: as much. All of their numbers were very concerning. Well,

1201
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 4: let's fast forward Alanta. Are they as good as they

1202
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 4: were last year?

1203
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 2: Still? Probably not, but goos they were the last two years.

1204
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 4: No, that being said, they're back in the top four

1205
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 4: and they're looking like a team who in a wide

1206
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 4: open Seria I.

1207
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 2: Might be able to make a run.

1208
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 4: Now I don't think they're going to, but this is

1209
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 4: aland spot for Atlanta. They did just steamroll Bjay's Venetzia

1210
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 4: in the midweek four nil. They're getting Napoli here without

1211
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 4: their best striker in Usaman, who is out for the

1212
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 4: foreseeable future. Napoli looked pretty sluggish in attack against Soswolo.

1213
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:18,879
Speaker 4: They blew the lead late, almost lost it in stoppage time.

1214
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 4: Var overturned the game winning goal for Suswolo, but only

1215
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 4: one point two expected goals against Lazio and what was

1216
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,240
Speaker 4: a pretty routine victory but then only point nine today.

1217
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 4: Defensive regression is coming for Napoli. As much as I

1218
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 4: like Spiletti and like Napoli, they're not going to continue

1219
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 4: to keep out goals at this rate. Atlanta at plus

1220
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 4: two ten is worth a look here on the road.

1221
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 4: They just beat Juventus as well, so they've they've proven

1222
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 4: that they can hang with these teams. I think Napoli

1223
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 4: has more of the ball here, but I think Adalanta

1224
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 4: will score and at that point they're alive underdog plus

1225
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 4: two ten, with Napoli not quite getting as much out

1226
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 4: of their attack without Big Vic leading the line. And

1227
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 4: that brings us to the last portion of our program,

1228
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 4: our favorite EPO bets for the weekend. I think I

1229
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 4: basically bet against Newcastle every chance I could this season,

1230
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it again. Burnley plus two ten on

1231
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 4: the road. I just think they are a couple of

1232
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 4: tiers above this Newcastle team, who I really questioned their

1233
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 4: commitment given what's going on at the club and the

1234
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 4: fact that the January transfer window is illouoming so a

1235
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 4: lot of these players. Honestly, Newcastle to stay in the

1236
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 4: Premier League is going to have to completely overhaul their squad.

1237
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 3: So I just think that there's too much weird stuff here.

1238
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 3: Worst defensive team at preventing big scoring chances, Burnley is

1239
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 3: pretty good at creating them. So give me the Clarts

1240
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 3: at plus two ten on the road at Saint James

1241
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 3: Park BJ. What's your favorite Premier League bet this week?

1242
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:40,840
Speaker 1: I like Everton plus half a goal at minus one

1243
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 1: thirty five. Listen, I know Everton has a ton of

1244
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 1: injury issues. I know they just got thrashed by Liverpool,

1245
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:50,760
Speaker 1: but this team is not that bad. Even without Dominique

1246
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 1: Calvert Lewin and a lot of other of their other

1247
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: key guys injured. They only have a minus two point

1248
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 1: three to two expect a goal to offrontial. That's around

1249
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 1: the middle of the table. So they're There is no

1250
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:02,480
Speaker 1: reason why Arsenal should be plus one p fifteen on

1251
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 1: the road if they can't exploit Everton the way that

1252
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 1: Liverpool can, because Arsenal doesn't press at all, and that's

1253
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 1: how you beat Everton. On the flip side, Everton defensively

1254
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:14,879
Speaker 1: hasn't been that great, but Arsenal going forward hasn't been

1255
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: that great either. They're around middle of the table and

1256
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 1: expected goals. Arsenal has allowed the third most crosses into

1257
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 1: their own eighteen yard bucks. So I do ever think

1258
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 1: Everton will be able to create a few chances. I

1259
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 1: have this match projected around to pick them, so I

1260
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 1: like Everton plus half a goal at minus one thirty five.

1261
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 3: And Anthony, who is your favorite Premier League bet? This week?

1262
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 2: Aston Villa drawno bet minus one ten at home.

1263
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 4: The Villains have had a significant defensive improvement since the

1264
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 4: arrival of Steven Gerrard the manager. This is no surprise

1265
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 4: given how good he was in Scotland his previous job.

1266
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 4: They were elite defensively by their standards, and he's come

1267
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 4: into Villa and already improved them. They only allowed one

1268
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 4: expected goal to Manchester City, extremely impressive performance even though

1269
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,240
Speaker 4: they did lose ultimately two to one in that game.

1270
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 4: They're getting a lesser defense at bottom six and expected

1271
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 4: goals allowed that has had an attack that's been heavily

1272
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 4: reliant on quick strike stuff and on set pieces of late.

1273
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 4: They're not going to get as many of those against

1274
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 4: a compact Villa defense, which is trending in the right direction.

1275
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 4: And I think Villa's attack showed some life in the

1276
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 4: last couple of weeks and is going to start to

1277
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 4: turn it around here. So I like Villa at home

1278
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 4: against an overrated Lester who looks more and more like

1279
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:24,360
Speaker 4: a mid table team.

1280
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 2: Every single week. Villa at home minus one ten on

1281
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 2: the drawer.

1282
00:56:27,200 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 3: Bedline, and that'll do it for this episode of Wonder

1283
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:33,359
Speaker 3: Goal for BJ Cunninghand, for Anthony Dabundo, We'll see you

1284
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:38,280
Speaker 3: next week. Enjoyed their classicer everybody