WEBVTT - At the Money: Avoiding the Behavior Gap

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<v Speaker 1>In misbehaving saving me?

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<v Speaker 2>How many times has this happened to you? Some interesting

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<v Speaker 2>new fund manager or ETF is putting up great numbers,

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<v Speaker 2>sometimes for years, and you take the plunge and finally

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<v Speaker 2>buy it. It's a hot fund with tremendous performance. But

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<v Speaker 2>after a few years you review your portfolio and wonder, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>how come my returns aren't nearly as good as expected.

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<v Speaker 2>You may be experiencing what has become known as the

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<v Speaker 2>behavior gap. It's the reason your actual performance is much

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<v Speaker 2>worse than the fund you purchase. I'm Barry Riddolts, and

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<v Speaker 2>on today's edition of At the Money, we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>discuss how to avoid suffering from the behavior gap. To

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<v Speaker 2>help us unpack all of this and what it means

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<v Speaker 2>for your portfolio, let's bring in Carl Richards. He's the

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<v Speaker 2>author of The Behavior Gap, Simple Ways to Stop Doing

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<v Speaker 2>Things with Money. The book focuses on the underlying behavioral

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<v Speaker 2>issues that lead people to make poor financial decisions. So Carl,

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<v Speaker 2>let's just start with a basic definition. What is the

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<v Speaker 2>behavior gap?

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks? Verry, super fun to chat with you about this.

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<v Speaker 1>So I this is going back now twenty years right,

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<v Speaker 1>like I just stumbled upon this early on in my

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<v Speaker 1>work with investors that we would get all excited. I

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<v Speaker 1>would get all excited as you, exactly as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>like we would do some performance review. We would find

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<v Speaker 1>some fund we thought was great. Of course, past performance

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<v Speaker 1>is no indication of future results. But what's the first

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<v Speaker 1>thing you look at when you decide to make Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>past performance, get all excited about it, and then you

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<v Speaker 1>have this inevitable letdown. And so I think the easiest

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<v Speaker 1>way to describe this is imagine you open the newspaper

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<v Speaker 1>and there's an there's an advertisement, Remember the old fashioned newspaper, right,

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<v Speaker 1>There's an advertisement for a mutual fund that says ten

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<v Speaker 1>year average annual return of ten percent. Well, that's the

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<v Speaker 1>investment return. And I think we all forget that investments

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<v Speaker 1>are different than investors, and so the behavior gap is

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<v Speaker 1>the difference between the investment return and the return you

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<v Speaker 1>earn as an investor in your account. And my experience

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<v Speaker 1>and the data show that often individual investors underperform the

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<v Speaker 1>average investment. So it's this well intentioned behavior of finding

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<v Speaker 1>the best investment is generating a suboptimal result for us

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<v Speaker 1>as investors.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the underlying basis for that?

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<v Speaker 1>Gap.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm assuming, especially if we're talking about a hot fund,

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<v Speaker 2>the fund has had a great run up, people buy,

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<v Speaker 2>if not the top, well certainly after it's had a

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<v Speaker 2>big move, and then a little bit of mean reversion

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<v Speaker 2>comes back into it. The fund does poorly for a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of years and then kind of goes back to

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<v Speaker 2>where it was. Is just as simple as buying high

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<v Speaker 2>and being stuck with it low? Is it that simple?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's interesting. Let me just tell you a quick story,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is about all great investment stories are about

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<v Speaker 1>your father in law. Right, So I remember my father

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<v Speaker 1>in law in ninety seven, ninety eight, ninety nine, he

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<v Speaker 1>had an investment advisors was named Carter. I remember all this,

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<v Speaker 1>and he owned and I can name specific funds because

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<v Speaker 1>these things are not the problem. The fund didn't make

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<v Speaker 1>the mistake, right, So Alliance Premier Growth, if you remember

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<v Speaker 1>ninety seven, ninety eight, ninety nine, just you know he

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<v Speaker 1>owned Alliance Premier Growth, and he owned Davis New York Venture,

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<v Speaker 1>so a go go growth fund and something that was

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<v Speaker 1>classically value. And at the end of ninety seven he

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<v Speaker 1>looks at his returns and he's like, why do we

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<v Speaker 1>own this? This Davis this value fund. Why do we

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<v Speaker 1>own this thing? Carter talks him into rebalancing, which means

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<v Speaker 1>he took some from Alliance Premier Growth it to Davis,

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<v Speaker 1>opposite of what he felt like doing. Right. Ninety eight

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<v Speaker 1>comes wrong, same thing, Alliance Premier Growth knocks it out

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<v Speaker 1>of the park. Davis only does like twelve percent or something, right,

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<v Speaker 1>father in law complains. Carter says, hey, please come on, like,

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<v Speaker 1>this is just this is just what we do. We're

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<v Speaker 1>actually going to do the opposite of what you feel.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to sell some Alliance Premier Growth. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to rebalance into Davis ninety nine, right, And I can't

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<v Speaker 1>call the exact numbers, but if I Alliance did something

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<v Speaker 1>like fifty four percent and Davis only did seventeen, and

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<v Speaker 1>my father in law was like, that's it, that's it.

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<v Speaker 1>And I remember New Year, like over Christmas, over the

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas holiday of ninety nine, right, and you know what

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<v Speaker 1>happens next, he tells me, He's like, yeah, I finally

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<v Speaker 1>had enough. I fired those Davis, that Davis New York

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<v Speaker 1>Venture Fund and moved all the money to Alliance Premier

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<v Speaker 1>Growth just in time. You know, we had another He

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<v Speaker 1>felt like a hero for January February and then March

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<v Speaker 1>of two thousand, just in time to get its head

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<v Speaker 1>taken off. And we repeat that over and over, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's kind of wired into us. So's it's challenging. You

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<v Speaker 1>want more of what gives you security or pleasure, and

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<v Speaker 1>you want to run away from things that cause you

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<v Speaker 1>pain as fast as possible. And somehow we've translated that

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<v Speaker 1>into by high and so low and repeat until broke. Huh.

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<v Speaker 2>And I happen to have the number one of that

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<v Speaker 2>series of lithographs you did, repeat until yes, hanging in

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<v Speaker 2>my office. And let's put a little a little meat

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<v Speaker 2>on the bones if you were heavily invested in any

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<v Speaker 2>fund that was heavily exposed to the Nasdaq from the

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<v Speaker 2>peak in March two thousand to just two years later.

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<v Speaker 2>By October of two the Nasdaq was down about eighty

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<v Speaker 2>one percent pete to troth. Yeah, that's a hell of

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<v Speaker 2>a haircut, losing four fifths of the value.

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<v Speaker 1>Especially just I mean, I remember those conversations like there

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<v Speaker 1>was I mean, this is kind of fun to poke

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<v Speaker 1>fun at your father in law, right, but it wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>very fun when there was like some pretty major drastic

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<v Speaker 1>changes in the way the family was operating because of

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<v Speaker 1>that experience, Like it was, it was a real deal

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<v Speaker 1>for lots of people, right sure, because that was and

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<v Speaker 1>and Barry just to point out, like that was not

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<v Speaker 1>an investment mistake, that was an investor mistake. Right. If

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<v Speaker 1>you had just stuck to the plan, which is rebalance

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<v Speaker 1>each year, you would have been fine. It would have

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<v Speaker 1>been painful, but not nearly as painful as it turned

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<v Speaker 1>out to be.

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<v Speaker 2>And I would bet the Dave's Value Fund did pretty

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<v Speaker 2>well in the early two thousand, certainly relative to the

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<v Speaker 2>growth fund for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>For sure, So you would have been protecting that. You

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<v Speaker 1>would have been systematically buying relatively low and selling relatively

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<v Speaker 1>high along the way systematically, because it's just what you do,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's called rebalancing.

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<v Speaker 2>So the behavior gap creates this space between how the

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<v Speaker 2>investment performs and how the investor performs. How big can

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<v Speaker 2>that gap get? How large does the behavior gap between

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<v Speaker 2>actual fun performance and investor returns become?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, this is really problematic because there are a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of different studies and none of them are great. My

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<v Speaker 1>experience with it is more antidotal, right, Like the experience

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<v Speaker 1>I have, like the story I just told, I could

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<v Speaker 1>tell twenty of those stories, right given, I mean, did

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<v Speaker 1>anybody listening become a real estate investor in No? Seven? Right?

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<v Speaker 1>Like over, you know, we don't have to even go

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<v Speaker 1>into the crypto NFT situation, right, but just over and

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<v Speaker 1>over we do it. But morning stars numbers I think

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<v Speaker 1>are my favorite, and that always puts it around. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a percent, a percent and a half over long periods

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<v Speaker 1>of time, which when we're all scraping for twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>basis points, you know, running around trying to eke out

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<v Speaker 1>the last bit of return, then this behavior gap that

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<v Speaker 1>costs us one hundred and twenty you know a point

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<v Speaker 1>to a point in a quarter is something worth paying

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<v Speaker 1>attention to.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, especially as as how that's compounded over time, it

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<v Speaker 2>can really add up to something substantial. So let's talk

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<v Speaker 2>about where the behavior gap comes from. It sounds like

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<v Speaker 2>our emotions are involved. It sounds like fear and greed

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<v Speaker 2>is what drives the behavior gap. Tell us what you've found.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I originally it's funny when I originally this was

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<v Speaker 1>sort of I felt like this was a discovery, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>cute of me because lots of other people have been

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<v Speaker 1>writing about it for years. But I was trying to

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<v Speaker 1>put a name on this gap, and I called it

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<v Speaker 1>originally the emotional gap. I'm really glad I changed the

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<v Speaker 1>name to the behavior at for the book. But to me,

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<v Speaker 1>there was just I couldn't explain it other than or

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<v Speaker 1>invest behavior. And I think when we understand how we're wired,

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<v Speaker 1>and I can't remember who was a Buffett that said,

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<v Speaker 1>of course we could just we can always attribute it

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<v Speaker 1>to Buffett if it was smart. But it was. If

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<v Speaker 1>you want to design a poor behavior, a poor investor,

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<v Speaker 1>design a human right, we're we're hard wired and it's

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<v Speaker 1>kept us alive as a species to get more of

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<v Speaker 1>the stuff that's giving us security or pleasure, and to

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<v Speaker 1>run as fast as we can. Like I don't really care, Berry,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't care what you tell me. If my hand's

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<v Speaker 1>on a burning stove, I'm going to take it off.

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<v Speaker 1>There are all the facts and figures you want at me.

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<v Speaker 1>Try to be rational with me all day long. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>I'm taking my hand off. And somehow, especially given the

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<v Speaker 1>sort of circus that exists around investing, you know where

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<v Speaker 1>you got people yelling and screaming by sell buy sell

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<v Speaker 1>all day long. We translate market down, mark it down.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh no, if I don't do something, and we project

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<v Speaker 1>the recent past and definitely in the future, and I've

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<v Speaker 1>seen people actually do the ca oculations. If the last

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<v Speaker 1>two weeks continue, in fifty two weeks, I'm gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>no money left, right, so market's going to zero. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we have this recency bias problem. We have being hardwired

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<v Speaker 1>for security and pleasure. We have safety heard behavior when

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<v Speaker 1>all your neighbors are yelling, right, it's really hard not to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know. And it was a buffet quote. Right, I

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<v Speaker 1>want to be greedy when everybody else is fearful, and

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<v Speaker 1>fearful when everybody else is greedy. And that's cute to say,

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<v Speaker 1>But when you've actually been punched in the face, you

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<v Speaker 1>behave a little differently, right.

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<v Speaker 2>So the other thing that I noticed that you've written

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<v Speaker 2>about regarding the behavior gap is how much we focus

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<v Speaker 2>on issues that are completely out of our control. What's

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<v Speaker 2>happening with markets going up and down? Who is Russia invading?

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<v Speaker 2>What's happening in the Middle East? When's the FED gonna

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<v Speaker 2>cut or raise rates? All of these things are completely

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<v Speaker 2>outside of not only our control but our ability to

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<v Speaker 2>fore cast what should investors be focusing on instead.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think portfolio construction, when done correctly, it takes

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<v Speaker 1>into account the weighty evidence of history, and the weighty

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<v Speaker 1>of evidence of history includes all of those events that

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<v Speaker 1>we couldn't have forecasted before, So we shouldn't be surprised

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<v Speaker 1>that things that we didn't think about will show up

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<v Speaker 1>next year, next week, and those things that we didn't

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<v Speaker 1>think about will have the greatest impact on our portfolio.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's literally like the unknown unknowns that will have

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<v Speaker 1>the greatest impact. Will design the portfolio with that in mind, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you do that? We'll use the weighty evidence

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<v Speaker 1>of history because it's been going on for a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the way to focus on what, like

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<v Speaker 1>the thing you can control the most is portfolio construction,

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<v Speaker 1>asset allocation and costs. Like if we just get clear

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<v Speaker 1>about that the portfolio is designed. Here's a question ask you.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been asking this question as like a game for

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<v Speaker 1>the last five years. Why is your portfolio built the

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<v Speaker 1>way it is? And the most common answers like I

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<v Speaker 1>heard about it on the news. This really smart people

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<v Speaker 1>whisper everything about it. An economist, right, so you, But

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<v Speaker 1>the correct answer is this portfolio is designed intentionally to

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<v Speaker 1>give me the greatest chance of meeting my own goals. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>those are the things you can focus on. Huh.

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<v Speaker 2>Quite intriguing. So to wrap up, when investors chase hot

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<v Speaker 2>funds or ETFs or sectors or whatever is the flavor

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<v Speaker 2>of the moment, there's a tendency to buy high, and

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<v Speaker 2>if subsequently they get out of these positions or sell

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<v Speaker 2>into a panic or market correction, they're all but guaranteed

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<v Speaker 2>to generate a performance worse than the fund itself. To

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<v Speaker 2>avoid succumbing to the behavior gap, you must learn to

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<v Speaker 2>manage your own behavior. I'm Barry Ritolts, and this has

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<v Speaker 2>been Bloomberg's at the money. Ain't misbehaving, I'm saving my value.