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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot Ye, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen Conny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 4: And the kick as block.

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Speaker 5: Look call it football, Laura stunder good bye, Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 5: he stumbled, and football the lateral turn a counter on

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Speaker 5: the inside, don't you The lad.

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Speaker 2: Came off the field to night.

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Speaker 5: It's not the sage on the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 5: it's the sage of the.

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Speaker 6: Fight in the Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast,

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Speaker 6: brought to you by Bet MGM on Mike Calvary's joins

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Speaker 6: by our illustrious group Stuckey, Colin Wilson and Brett McMurphy,

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Speaker 6: And we are talking about the college football Playoff. It

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Speaker 6: has been nine glorious seasons of a fourteen playoff, one

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Speaker 6: more before it rides off into the sunset and expands

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Speaker 6: to twelve teams.

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Speaker 7: And we're here to wax poetic.

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Speaker 6: On player movements, scheme changes, how college footble has really

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Speaker 6: gone through a revolution in terms of offenses since the

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Speaker 6: twenty fourteen season, and how that impacts how we bet it.

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Speaker 6: We're also going to turn to Brett McMurphy, who I

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Speaker 6: will pitch it to now because he has a little

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Speaker 6: bit of news about the twelve team playoff that's right

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Speaker 6: on the horizon.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, well, they finally officially determined obviously would be a

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Speaker 8: twelve team playoff. But I think more importantly, the first

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Speaker 8: round games will be on campus sites, the quarterfinals will

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Speaker 8: be rotated within the balls, the semifinals, in the bowls,

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Speaker 8: and in the championship game. Real quickly, the things that

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Speaker 8: stuck out for me, I don't know what you guys feel.

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Speaker 8: I really believe once we're like a minute into that

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Speaker 8: first playoff game in twenty twenty four and we see

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Speaker 8: it on campus, the common cry on Twitter will be

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Speaker 8: why isn't every playoff game on campus?

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of issues with that sticks.

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Speaker 8: You know, you only have a week lead time to

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Speaker 8: schedule these games when it's a week by week playoff.

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Speaker 8: I think those are excuses, and obviously the Bulls carry

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Speaker 8: a lot of influence with that.

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Speaker 1: The other thing, which you know, you guys.

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Speaker 8: Will have a better rad on this, probably the most

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Speaker 8: stuck is there's going to be some playoff games that

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Speaker 8: are going to be going head to head against NFL games,

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Speaker 8: and I don't think that's great for college football. I

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Speaker 8: don't like that, but you know, I like, you want

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Speaker 8: to play Wednesday afternoon at two pm. You kind of

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Speaker 8: got to go head to head with the NFL in

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Don't mind it more the better most people have multiple

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Speaker 2: teas now. Plus the NFL eventually is going to be

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Speaker 2: on every day of the week. I mean I just

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Speaker 2: saw the scheduleak today. They're playing on Black Friday. Now,

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Speaker 2: Like there's a Black Friday afternoon game, so like it's inevitability.

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Speaker 3: I don't care more meaningful college football. I'm happier. Look ahead, bro, I.

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Speaker 9: Mean, correct me if I'm wrong. Stuck Week eighteen in

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Speaker 9: the NFL, Like, I mean, what we're going to decide

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Speaker 9: like the last two seeds in each conference, Like it's

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Speaker 9: really not that much drama. I mean, the buys are

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Speaker 9: pretty much wrapped up by then. It seems like the

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Speaker 9: seeding's pretty much wrapped up usually. I mean it is

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Speaker 9: college table going to cut into something important from the

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Speaker 9: NFL at this time of year, there is a spot

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Speaker 9: for college football. I think the carve out when it

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Speaker 9: comes to Week eighteen in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I'm happy now that the age old argument is the

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Speaker 2: old guard will say there's that makes the regular season

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Speaker 2: less meaningful. I think it makes the regular season more meaningful,

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Speaker 2: Like there's more meaningful games overall, including conference championships. Now

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Speaker 2: I get it, like Alabama, there's not as many meaningful games,

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Speaker 2: Like they're probably still gonna make it right like before,

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Speaker 2: but like Alabama was most of the time, they're getting

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Speaker 2: in the conetable playoff.

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Speaker 3: Anyway.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of like, does the NFL playoffs suck because

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Speaker 2: Mahomes and the Chiefs. If mo Home stays healthy, you

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Speaker 2: know they're gonna get into the playoffs. Like, yeah, there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a couple of teams that you know going

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Speaker 2: into the year are going to get into the playoff.

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Speaker 3: But overall, I think.

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Speaker 2: There's more meaningful games in totality, and then you know,

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Speaker 2: we don't have that long break.

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Speaker 3: I love it.

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Speaker 2: I'm all for this twelve femer. I would have put eight,

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Speaker 2: but twelve was fining me too.

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Speaker 9: There's going to be a team that has one loss

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Speaker 9: get into the playoff, not host one of the opening

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Speaker 9: round games. I'm talking Alabama, Like think of Ohio State

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Speaker 9: this past year didn't win their conference one loss, got

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Speaker 9: into the playoff gets into a scenario going into somebody's house,

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Speaker 9: steam rolls a group of five game right, and then

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Speaker 9: gets all the way and wins the championship, which we've

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Speaker 9: had at largest win championships with Alabama before. I mean,

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Speaker 9: that's gonna happen, and you get that extra us because

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Speaker 9: you didn't have to play in the conference championship game.

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Speaker 9: Wouldn't you rather trade a conference championship game for going

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Speaker 9: on the road against like Central Florida.

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Speaker 6: You can't.

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Speaker 2: Your verbiage right now is one of the things that's

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Speaker 2: going to go off. Like we're talking about the ten

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Speaker 2: year anniversary of the Coastwell plaow hour five is one

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Speaker 2: of the things that came of this because like they

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Speaker 2: were guaranteed bowl games and the group of.

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Speaker 3: Five had a share one.

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Speaker 2: Now the whole landscape's gonna shift because it's what it's

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Speaker 2: gonna end up being, power too, right in a way

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Speaker 2: in power too and then group of what.

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Speaker 8: Ten Tuesday, I can RESCO, the American Athletic comm wrote

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Speaker 8: a nearly twenty six hundred word open letter. I mean,

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Speaker 8: by the time I finished reading this, three more teams

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Speaker 8: left this conference. But basically he was saying that there

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Speaker 8: should no longer be the power five and the group

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Speaker 8: of five, and YadA, YadA, YadA. I will not get

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Speaker 8: into it. So I said, okay, you're right. From now on,

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Speaker 8: I will refer to the conferences as power to middle

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Speaker 8: three in the group of five.

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Speaker 1: But you're right, it's going to be different.

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Speaker 8: The top rated six, the top highest ranked conference champion,

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Speaker 8: six of them automatically getting the playoff, and then six

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Speaker 8: at large. Bits what Colin hit on is, you're basically

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Speaker 8: described a Notre Dame. Notre Dame will never have to

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Speaker 8: play a conference championship game. Notre Dame will never get

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Speaker 8: a first round by everyone's like, oh my god, that's

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Speaker 8: going to force Notre Dame to join a conference. They

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Speaker 8: may join a conference, but not because of this, because

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Speaker 8: now they don't have to play a thirteenth regular season game,

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Speaker 8: they don't have to play conference championship.

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Speaker 1: They still control their schedule.

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Speaker 8: If they're good enough to be in the top twelve

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Speaker 8: in the country, then they're probably gonna host a first

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Speaker 8: round game and bring, you know, several millions of dollars

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Speaker 8: to the South Bend community for what, in essence is

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Speaker 8: an eighth or ninth home game that season, so that

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Speaker 8: will plays out perfectly for Notre Dame and stuck to

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Speaker 8: your point, absolutely, this is going to bring more interest

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Speaker 8: into the regular season because now with a sixth conference

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Speaker 8: champ being guaranteed a spot, the POWERFI we assume will

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Speaker 8: get those five automatic bids. So now you've got multiple

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Speaker 8: conferences and multiple teams within the smaller conferences battling out

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Speaker 8: to be that highest RNGTH team. Obviously, you know you

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Speaker 8: mentioned Alabama getting in every year when they win the.

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Speaker 1: SEC more times than not.

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Speaker 8: But now you could have two three teams from the SEC,

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Speaker 8: two three teams from the Big Ten get in, So

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Speaker 8: those late games are gonna matter. You're gonna have to

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Speaker 8: win those late games to finish ten and two, maybe

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Speaker 8: possibly nine and three to get in a large bit.

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Speaker 8: So I agree more football is better. I'm just I

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Speaker 8: was just more concerned about the ratings impact it could

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Speaker 8: have when they go head to head against the NFL.

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Speaker 9: What a scene it's gonna be with two laner Troy

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Speaker 9: is hosting Michigan or Bama or god forbid, Georgia doesn't

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Speaker 9: win like their conference championship, like Georgia going into Troy,

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Speaker 9: like what a gambling opportunity to no one is going

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Speaker 9: to take the group of five home team against a

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Speaker 9: Michigan or a Georgia or Hale Tennessee would.

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Speaker 7: Have gotten in.

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Speaker 9: I think maybe last year, who knows, but right, you know,

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Speaker 9: I mean what a betting opportunity for me. That's great TV.

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Speaker 9: But I wonder if the ratings will sag when you

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Speaker 9: get these group of five teams?

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Speaker 7: Do playing hosts? Yeah, are we.

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Speaker 2: Totally positive that you say the middle three? But like,

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Speaker 2: look at the path whatever it is called. I guess

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Speaker 2: they always keep it d but like, are we sure

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Speaker 2: that their conference ship is going to be rated higher

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Speaker 2: than these the other.

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Speaker 3: Group of what we know now as the group of punts.

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Speaker 2: You might have a couple group of five and then the

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Speaker 2: PAC twelve champ is not maybe us to get in

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Speaker 2: our large I love it. I think it just creates

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Speaker 2: more drama. And then like the conference there's conference shimpsip weekend.

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Speaker 2: Now for most part it's like there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: irrelevancy on that weekend. Now there's no irrelevancy. All those

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Speaker 2: games matter, and then it's gonna be an electric atmosphere

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Speaker 2: and then but there's just a less of a break

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Speaker 2: between meaningful college football games, right instead of like waiting

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Speaker 2: a month and I'm like, wait, who's on these teams again?

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Speaker 3: That's what I love about it too.

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Speaker 2: People are gonna complain no matter what, but everyone will adjust.

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Speaker 2: There's gonna be lines and there's college football games. If

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Speaker 2: you listen to this podcast, that's all you care about.

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Speaker 2: That's all I care about. So like, yeah, people are

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Speaker 2: gonna complain. I love it personally, and if you don't

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Speaker 2: love it, you'll get over it because you'll be on

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Speaker 2: your couch with money on one of these sides and

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Speaker 2: hopefully getting to the window, because that's all that matters.

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Speaker 9: A question for Brett, though, is like, are cutting down

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Speaker 9: our bulls late?

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Speaker 1: Again?

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Speaker 8: This doesn't start till twenty twenty four, So basically that

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Speaker 8: from the from the BOWLD people I talk to, they

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Speaker 8: believe that in the bowl contracts, actually they coincide with

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Speaker 8: the College Football Playoff original twelve year deal, which weird.

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Speaker 8: As Mike alluded to earlier, we are now going into

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Speaker 8: year ten, so we have three years left twenty three,

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Speaker 8: regular season, twenty four and then twenty five. I think

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Speaker 8: we'll stay at forty one bowls through twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 8: and then in twenty twenty six and beyond then, I

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Speaker 8: think you'll see some balls get trimmed away because of

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Speaker 8: the popularity of the twelve team playoff for all the

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Speaker 8: reasons we said, I would be surprised if you had

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Speaker 8: seen any balls go away in the next before that time.

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Speaker 8: Because again, they've got contracts signed, they've got conferences that

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Speaker 8: are committed to their bowl games. That's obviously there's going

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Speaker 8: to be some tweaks in that because the Big twelve

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Speaker 8: membership is increasing, Conference USA is pre sing the Big ten,

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Speaker 8: and SEC is in create you know, musical chair.

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Speaker 1: So we will see some balls cut back.

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Speaker 8: I don't think it'll be until twenty twenty six and

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Speaker 8: then stuck. One thing which Mike knows this is the

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Speaker 8: Group five expert. Two or three years ago, if we

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Speaker 8: would have had the top highest six rated conference champs

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Speaker 8: to make the playoff, the PAC twelve Oregon number twenty

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Speaker 8: five would not have made it. You would have had

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Speaker 8: Cincinnati out of the American and you would have Coastal

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Speaker 8: Carolina the Sun Belt would have made the playoffs. In

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Speaker 8: a twelve team playoff that year, the PAC twelve would

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Speaker 8: not have made the playoff well that's interesting.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and best of both worlds.

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Speaker 2: Now you get twelve team playoff and the same amount

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Speaker 2: of balls until further notice. If that's the case, we'll

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Speaker 2: get like a two win UMass in a Bowl game, Like.

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Speaker 3: Come on, I love it. You gotta love it, right.

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Speaker 2: Is there any merit of potential expansion to sixteen like

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Speaker 2: in the in the horizon? Is it Let's see how

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Speaker 2: this goes first and then is that a possibility or

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Speaker 2: is this you think it's going to be for the

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Speaker 2: foreseeable feature with twelve?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, stuck, it's a possibility.

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Speaker 8: But look, they're just trying to get this twelve teamer

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Speaker 8: off the ground and that and again it's starting in

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty four. However, that's only for two years. They've

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Speaker 8: agreed to go twelve beyond that, so twenty twenty six

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Speaker 8: that's when if they will have a new contract, unless

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Speaker 8: they refer back to twenty twenty four. As far as

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Speaker 8: are they all going to be on ESPN? Is it

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Speaker 8: going to be ESPN and Fox? So there's a lot

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Speaker 8: of things involved in that. So yeah, could we get

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Speaker 8: to sixteen, absolutely, but I don't think it will be

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Speaker 8: for another probably five to ten years. Being optimistic. I

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Speaker 8: think they'll go with twelve, see how that goes, and

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Speaker 8: then you know, if there's an outcry or just look,

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Speaker 8: sixteen works better. And like you mentioned, who knows what's

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Speaker 8: going to happen with conference for alignment?

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Speaker 1: I said, you know, it's.

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Speaker 8: The power to the middle three, the group five. In

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Speaker 8: two or three years, it may be the power to

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Speaker 8: the middle two the group. I mean, who knows what's

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Speaker 8: going to happen with conference realignment in the next two

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Speaker 8: or three years.

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Speaker 2: You could see other teams drop down to like divisions.

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Speaker 2: But I personally, like I said, I wouldn't really care.

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Speaker 2: But well, feels like the MACS like sixteen. You're talking

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Speaker 2: now over ten percent of the team to twelve percent

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Speaker 2: of the teams are making it.

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Speaker 3: It is what it is. I'm excited.

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Speaker 7: Just a few things to react to.

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Speaker 6: First, I know, the NFL is the eight hundred pound

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Speaker 6: gorilla when it comes to TV ratings, and they.

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Speaker 7: Just dominate a day of the week.

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Speaker 6: But historically they don't come up against other sports all

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Speaker 6: that often, so a lot of this is like hypothetical.

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Speaker 6: It's like, yeah, every once in a while, they're up

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Speaker 6: against the Hawaii Bowl and they crush that in terms

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Speaker 6: of the ratings, but I would be interested to see

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Speaker 6: how they do against a collegeable playoff game in a

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Speaker 6: Week eighteen Jets versus Browns game that doesn't matter, Like,

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Speaker 6: let's let's actually find out.

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Speaker 7: So I do think there's been increased.

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Speaker 6: Confidence from collegeable power brokers that like, it's possible to

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Speaker 6: get it done. And this question, I'll just throw it

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Speaker 6: a breat before we wrap on this section of it

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Speaker 6: in terms of the flexibility of potentially moving everything into

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Speaker 6: week zero, because they've already kind of showed the logistics

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Speaker 6: of how that can work, and I know some of

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Speaker 6: the conference commissioners and ads have paid lip service too.

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Speaker 1: Well.

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Speaker 6: The kids have summer school class. It's like, oh, all

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Speaker 6: of a sudden, you care about academics. I think realistically

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Speaker 6: you could move everything to week zero and then maybe

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Speaker 6: mitigate some of these NFL collegeable playoff head to head

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Speaker 6: issues down the line, and then the last part of

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Speaker 6: it too. I saw some commentary in the past few

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Speaker 6: weeks that potentially you could have a conference championship week

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Speaker 6: where everyone in the conference plays.

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Speaker 7: I believe we did.

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Speaker 6: This during the COVID year, where you had the conference

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Speaker 6: championship game and then everyone else who didn't play each

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Speaker 6: other matching up like in the Big Ten, the SEC.

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Speaker 7: That way, there's not as much of that.

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Speaker 6: To me, it feels a little bit icky where it's like, oh,

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Speaker 6: we didn't even want to play in the conference title game.

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Speaker 6: We'd prefer to get rest and then play in the

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Speaker 6: college football Playoff. This way, everyone's playing that game either way.

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Speaker 6: Have you heard any rumors on that front.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, look, anything that you've heard, read, or

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Speaker 8: thought of is obviously being thought about.

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Speaker 1: In the Week zero that you mentioned that was brought up, they've.

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Speaker 8: Decided to table that or delay that because again, while

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Speaker 8: that makes a lot of sense, you know, one of

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Speaker 8: the few remaining things that hasn't changed with college football

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Speaker 8: is that the traditional Thanksgiving games and the traditional rivalries

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Speaker 8: around that time of year. So if you go week

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Speaker 8: zero now those games get moved up a week potentially.

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Speaker 8: All we know right now is for the next three years,

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Speaker 8: we're pretty much well we'll be set for the twelve

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Speaker 8: teamer But when ESPN and or Fox finalize whatever the

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Speaker 8: future of the twelve team playoff is, like you mentioned, Mike,

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Speaker 8: that could impact where we will now be required to

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Speaker 8: have a week zero, or we will be required for

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Speaker 8: all teams within a conference to play the week of

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Speaker 8: the conference title games.

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Speaker 1: I don't really think.

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Speaker 8: I know that happened in COVID, I believe, but I

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Speaker 8: don't really think that's going to happen, because again, these

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Speaker 8: conferences want the most bang for their buck for these

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Speaker 8: conference championship games. That's why they're being played for money,

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Speaker 8: not determined who's the best in their league, despite what

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Speaker 8: they want to tell you. So why would you dilute

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Speaker 8: your product with five games that day? I guess you

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Speaker 8: could say they could be lead INDs to your game,

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Speaker 8: but again, there's only so many TV windows, you know,

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Speaker 8: for a regular season.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think. I don't think that would happen.

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Speaker 2: Hey, you mentioned you mentioned not have an incentive, by

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Speaker 2: the way, Mike, but incentive like even if like hey, rest.

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Speaker 2: But that's why I think twelve works in that the

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Speaker 2: top top four are going to get buys, so like,

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Speaker 2: we want to win that game, get a bye, and

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Speaker 2: then if you're not, you know, maybe necessarily guaranteed one

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Speaker 2: of the top four slots and you're playing, you want

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Speaker 2: to host the game. So I think that there's still

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Speaker 2: proper incentive for that conference championship weekend.

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Speaker 3: But ahead, what we're gonna say.

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Speaker 6: All right, so the confetti falls on Jamis Winston. FSU

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Speaker 6: beats Auburn in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl. Jimbo's traditional

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Speaker 6: a little bit more pro style offense against the Gus

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Speaker 6: bus and his hurry up, you know, fast tempo jet

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Speaker 6: sweeps in everything that he had Marshall ring for that offense.

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Speaker 6: So those are the two kind of ying and yang

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Speaker 6: of college baball at the time. So much has changed

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Speaker 6: schematically since the end of the twenty thirteen season. What

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Speaker 6: to you stands out from a college foo ball perspective

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Speaker 6: from twenty thirteen to today and how much has changed

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Speaker 6: in that, you know, nine plus years.

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Speaker 7: I'll go to you first calm the adoption of the spread.

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Speaker 9: Once Saban put his flag in the ground and said,

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Speaker 9: I am done with ground and pound trit Richardson and

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Speaker 9: we're going to spread it out and go as deep

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Speaker 9: as we can with double tights. Thank you Sark for

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Speaker 9: implementing double tights into the Alabama offense. You know, once

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Speaker 9: that was in, it was just like an explosion in

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Speaker 9: college football. It was just trying to be the most

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Speaker 9: explosive team down the field shades of South Florida twenty thirteen,

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Speaker 9: twenty fourteen. I think that has led to these crazy scores.

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Speaker 9: We just saw TCU Michigan fifty one to forty five

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Speaker 9: in a playoff game. LSU scored sixty three with Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 9: So you know, I think just the offensive explosion that

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Speaker 9: we've seen is great for the game. I do like

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Speaker 9: a good defense. I haven't seen one in a while.

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Speaker 9: Right Georgia just one sixty five to seven. That's a

364
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Speaker 9: great defense. But I mean still, I would like a

365
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Speaker 9: good two defenses on the field, which I don't think

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Speaker 9: we've seen in a playoff.

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Speaker 7: Game in a while. How about you stuck what stands out?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll say on kind of a piggyback off that

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Speaker 2: it's also Alabama in going faster, right, not just to spread,

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Speaker 2: but it's actually the speed as well, going back to

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Speaker 2: like the Alabama ground and pound, like those teams. You know,

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Speaker 2: you go to the elite. Other elite teams have caught

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Speaker 2: up to Alabama, But back when Alabama was the class, right,

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Speaker 2: we're talking by the time frame, we're talking in ten

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Speaker 2: years ago, when their teams are so much more dominant

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Speaker 2: imagine if they also you know, spread it out and

377
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Speaker 2: we're playing faster because more plays equals less variance, right,

378
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,120
Speaker 2: and like you just get I have the more talented team,

379
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Speaker 2: and you know, Saban finally realize that all these other teams,

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Speaker 2: which makes it more difficult. I think to kind of

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Speaker 2: cut off the cream of the crop.

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Speaker 3: At the top of college football.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, just the speed and the spread and the

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Speaker 2: modernization of the game and going back to the time

385
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Speaker 2: to the college wall playoff expansion. I do think that

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Speaker 2: you know, it's it's much more difficult. I think it's

387
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Speaker 2: only going to get more difficult to beat these elite

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Speaker 2: teams at the very top. But with college football expansion,

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Speaker 2: I do like it's still football. It's still one game.

390
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Speaker 2: You still got to roll the ball out there. It's

391
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,399
Speaker 2: still an oblong ball. I do think it'll make the

392
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Speaker 2: futures market much more instriguing because over the last tenure,

393
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:31,879
Speaker 2: who's won it. It's the same teams that we're recycling.

394
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Speaker 2: But I remember, and it's so hard to hit a

395
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 2: college football future. It's like you're trying to time when

396
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 2: to buy Alabama, but it's there's not much to this uncertainty.

397
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,720
Speaker 2: I think brings potential investing opportunities into a market, especially

398
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Speaker 2: early on.

399
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Speaker 3: And I remember the only.

400
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Speaker 2: College football nationals out of the future I ever hit,

401
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 2: sorry calling to bring this up again.

402
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: I sent them a TikTok the other day.

403
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Speaker 2: It was like TCUs the twenty fourteen TCUs like the

404
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:54,879
Speaker 2: greatest team never to make the College Bow plup. But

405
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:59,200
Speaker 2: I bought Ohio State, you know, fifty to one after

406
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Speaker 2: they lost a tech and week two, and you know,

407
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 2: that's a team that has the chops to you know,

408
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:06,199
Speaker 2: you could argue that TCU probably should have got in,

409
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,119
Speaker 2: but they had the chops and the and the pedigree

410
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Speaker 2: to actually go in and win it all, and they did.

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Speaker 3: But I think that you know, teams like that.

412
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 2: You know, take an early loss, maybe even two early on,

413
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 2: and it's a power conference team, they could still find

414
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 2: themselves back into the mix. Whereas before and this goes

415
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Speaker 2: back to meaningful games, Right, you lose two games early,

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00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 2: you're cooked done, sometimes sometimes one depending on who you

417
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,160
Speaker 2: lose to. Now your season is still alive, depending on

418
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 2: what the price is. And because really when we're we've

419
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 2: been talking futures over the past, you know, since colleg

420
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 2: football playoff expansion very few and far that the opportunities

421
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 2: to maybe find a long shot or someone that's just

422
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: you know, even third twenty thirty to like, very few

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00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 2: and far between. I think those opportunities will open up,

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00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 2: which makes the conversation at least more interesting from a

425
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Speaker 2: gambling perspective.

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Speaker 3: Gole, do you agree with that?

427
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Speaker 6: Oh?

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Speaker 9: I think you and I are back into what we

429
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 9: did ten years ago. Ohio State lost that game I

430
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Speaker 9: believed to Virginia Tech right and immediately got to take

431
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 9: a future because twelve team playoff, that loss is gonna

432
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Speaker 9: signify you're probably not gonna have to play an extra

433
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 9: game in the conference championship game and you're still gonna

434
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Speaker 9: slip in.

435
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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're gonna have to go on could make them

436
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Speaker 3: even more interesting.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, So, I I mean, I think you and I

438
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Speaker 9: are back on the whole boom. Took a loss time

439
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 9: to hit a future because there's no way this team's

440
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 9: missing the playoff.

441
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Speaker 3: So yeah, before we go any further.

442
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Speaker 2: As a reminder, Big Bets on Campus is presented by

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464
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470
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471
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472
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473
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474
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 6: In New York, looking at it on the other side

475
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 6: of the ball, everything you mentioned, the spread, the up tempo,

476
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 6: and also RPOs, tagging these passing plays onto every running

477
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 6: concept that you have. Joe Morehead really kind of being

478
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 6: the lightning rod for that at Penn State, and once

479
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 6: he was able to modernize Penn State's offense so quickly

480
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 6: and take them from kind of a plotting Big ten

481
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 6: team to a threat to win the national championship all

482
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 6: with that offensive scheme. What it's done on the other

483
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 6: side of the ball is it's reshaped how teams put

484
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 6: together their rosters. There's no room for these these huge

485
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 6: two hundred and fifty pounds linebackers. You know, that species

486
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 6: of defender is dead and now everything there's this incredible

487
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 6: premium placed on those hybrid defenders that Derwin James, the

488
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 6: Isaiah Simmons. If you can play in the box, on

489
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 6: the edge at the linebacker position, make plays in the secondary,

490
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 6: then you're worth your weight in gold. And because of that,

491
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 6: when you look at some of the best teams in

492
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,719
Speaker 6: the college show will playoff Era. Most of them have

493
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 6: a dynamic and they usually come up with like a

494
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 6: name from a star rover. You know, they give them

495
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 6: their own custom defensive player name because they're so impactful,

496
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 6: because you can stay on the field and actually match

497
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 6: up whether you know they're moving personnel in and out

498
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 6: or if they're playing like what Georgia does. This you know,

499
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 6: in the last few years has been unfair because they

500
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 6: can leap hours on the field. But he essentially could

501
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 6: be a running back, assalid receiver, wide receiver, tight ends,

502
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 6: how do you on the chessboard kind of match that.

503
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 6: So from nex's and o's perspective, that's what stands out

504
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 6: to me. That's so much different in college football today

505
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 6: as opposed to twenty thirteen. Brett, what's something that stood

506
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 6: out to you from the x's and o's part of

507
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 6: the game.

508
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 8: Well, basically kind of what you guys have all touched on,

509
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 8: but specifically more and I talked. I was in Arizona

510
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 8: last week and met up with a lot of coaches

511
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 8: and ads, and it's the quarterback position. It's not her shattering,

512
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 8: but if no quarterback, no chance. I mean maybe you know,

513
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 8: back in twenty fourteen or fifteen or whatever, you could

514
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 8: have a solid run game, a solid defense. Stecky talked about,

515
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 8: you know, Alabama finally going fast Lane Kiffin had to

516
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 8: convince Saban to do that. I mean, it wasn't it

517
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 8: wasn't that long ago. Saban was trying to change the

518
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 8: rules where the offense would have to give the defense

519
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 8: a certain amount of time to line up, and when

520
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 8: that didn't pass, Saban has done so often.

521
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 1: He says you either.

522
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 8: Adapt or you die. So he adapted. He ran up

523
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 8: tempo with Kiffen and it hasn't been the same. So

524
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 8: more specifically, and you see this with the transfer portal. Now,

525
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 8: you know, you guys look at this when you look

526
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 8: at your win totals and projections on a team as

527
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 8: far as getting the national title game. First thing you

528
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 8: look at quarterback and if they don't a quarterback, it's like, yeah,

529
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 8: you know, do I really want to take a chance

530
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 8: on that. So I think that's been the biggest difference

531
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 8: is the quarterback is worked so much more to a team.

532
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 9: And the old Grayson McCall is worth ten points to

533
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 9: the spread.

534
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I mean the book Alvama, the progression of

535
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 2: their quarterbacks. I mean when they were winning, winning with

536
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: like just heading the Trent Rickerson a million times, lying

537
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 2: on their date, like the best quarterback to come into

538
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 2: the draft was like aj McCarron. And now look it's

539
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 2: like a top ten, top five pick every year. But yeah,

540
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 2: I think a team that really encapsulates what we're talking

541
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 2: about is Syracuse. Like if you go back to when

542
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 2: Dino Babers first arrived at Syracuse, one of their competitive

543
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: advantages was going super fast, right, like, we're gonna have

544
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 2: play as many plays as humanly possible, and defenses aren't

545
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: ready for it. They don't see it a lot, they

546
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 2: don't practice against it. Fast forward to the last couple

547
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,400
Speaker 2: of years, it's not really that big of a competitive

548
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 2: advantage anymore.

549
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 3: Everyone is doing it. So to credit to Syracuse, actually,

550
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 3: I mean.

551
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 2: They went to more RPO and they weren't just about like,

552
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 2: let's go as fast as possible, and they kind of

553
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 2: had a little bit of a resurgent year. But that's

554
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 2: one of the things, like the having that competitive advantage

555
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: for those things are it's harder to find. That's why

556
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 2: I'm so upset that Army is abandoning the triple optim

557
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 2: because that was one of the few left that still

558
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 2: had merit. Everyone's going faster, we're gonna just play this

559
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 2: crazy style and we're only down to two. But whatever,

560
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 2: I'm not going to talk about that. And again, total perfect.

561
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 8: A perfect example is specifically the playoff Clemson with Sean

562
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 8: Watson and Trevor Lawrence and Clempson with Doddy the quarterback.

563
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: Look at the difference and their success.

564
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: Yep.

565
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 6: Let me yeah, just to hop in real quick, because

566
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 6: I have thoughts on player movement impacting quarterback play in general.

567
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 6: Across all of FBS. So these are some stats that

568
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 6: I found to be really interesting. ESPN started doing their

569
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 6: QBR metric, which isn't perfect, but it's, you know, a

570
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 6: nice barometer for overall quarterback play. They started in two

571
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 6: thousand and four. Here's a quick question for the group.

572
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,479
Speaker 6: How many of those quarterbacks scored seventy or higher on

573
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 6: their QBR out of I believe at the time there

574
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 6: was like one hundred and twenty four schools, So in

575
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 6: two thousand and four, how many and seventy more or

576
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 6: less is like a B plus or better quarterback?

577
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 7: How many do you think out of one hundred and

578
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 7: twenty five.

579
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: Ish in two thousand and four, yep, in college football?

580
00:26:55,920 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 7: In college football, I'm.

581
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 3: Going to say thirteen, Alan, what do you think I

582
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: was gonna say.

583
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,719
Speaker 1: Twelve, So I'll keep going lower. I'll say nine.

584
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 6: You guys were circling it eleven quarterbacks. It went up

585
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 6: every single year for about six years, and twenty and

586
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,479
Speaker 6: four to twenty thirteen the average was twenty two and

587
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 6: a half per year. Then the playoff era begins. They

588
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 6: have some of those graduate transfer rules that come into

589
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 6: effect from twenty fourteen to twenty eighteen, it jumps to

590
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 6: thirty four, and now with the transfer portal heating up

591
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 6: and everybody can leave and you have instant eligibility, it's

592
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 6: up to thirty six from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty two.

593
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 6: So that's a big impact in terms of the overall

594
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 6: quality of the sport in my opinion, where you can

595
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,679
Speaker 6: have every single conference has three or four really good quarterbacks,

596
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 6: and a lot of the power conferences. You know, if

597
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 6: you don't have an answer there, you may as well

598
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 6: just fire your coach and start all over again. But

599
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 6: the beauty of it is that you can plug and play.

600
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 6: You can grab somebody out of the portal. You can

601
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 6: take someone who historically twenty years ago would a sat

602
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 6: behind a starter for two or three years. Now he

603
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 6: can be your guy day one as a freshman or

604
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 6: Richard freshman. So I just thought that was really interesting

605
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 6: from a player movement perspective.

606
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,719
Speaker 2: Let me say, I just looked up that year Stefan

607
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 2: Lafores was number one colin your boy Matt Jones number five.

608
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 7: Oh god, Matt Jones is a god.

609
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 9: Last thing I'll I'll end on about from a college

610
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 9: football how it's changed, and I'm going to say something

611
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 9: that sounds sacrilegious, but it might be brilliant. And I

612
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 9: think success rate is dead. And Colin Holst would never

613
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 9: say that four years ago. Right, But when Arkansas hired

614
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 9: Barry otom, the big knock on him was when he

615
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 9: was at Missouri. We'll rush three and drop eight, drop

616
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 9: eight coverage, draw eight coverage.

617
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 7: That's all we're going to do.

618
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 9: And now you look around college football and every defensive

619
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 9: coordinator is given up the middle of the field. They

620
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 9: don't care about the middle of the field. They will

621
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 9: drop seven, drop eight. You look at Georgia winning the

622
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 9: national title because they only had to rush four. The

623
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 9: best defenses can get pressure with three or four, and

624
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 9: almost I'd say eighty percent of the defensive coordinators do

625
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 9: not give a shit about the forty or the fifty

626
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 9: yard line. They will give up the middle of the

627
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 9: field to protect within the forty and get their finishing

628
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 9: drives and rather stop the score. And so now when

629
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 9: you have offenses that move this fast because Saban decided

630
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 9: to do this, and now everybody goes flash fast, right,

631
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 9: that makes these defenses only able to not even get

632
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 9: a blitz in, get a play call in or you know,

633
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 9: change up. You know we're going to crossers of the

634
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 9: defensive interior. Now it's just rush three or four, drop

635
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 9: seven or eight. And I think that kills success rate numbers.

636
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 9: It's phony success rate numbers because you're just given up

637
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 9: the middle of the field. So I've said that a

638
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 9: couple of years now with these with these spread offenses

639
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 9: and in the tempo, these defensive coordinators just care about

640
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 9: stopping the score.

641
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, I wouldn't say it's dead, but I don't

642
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 2: necessarily fully disagree with you. I think that it's definitely

643
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 2: now its importance is has diminished, and the importance of

644
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: you know, preventing explosive plays creating havoc. Those are where

645
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: defensive coordinators and teams are putting more of their folk.

646
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 2: Guess So, but I think that there's and I was

647
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 2: actually thinking about this is one of the things I

648
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 2: want to look at off season is there's definitely like

649
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 2: a a hybrid success rate of when it matters depending

650
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 2: on where you are in the field. You know, it's

651
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 2: mixing in like finishing drives and havoc, So there's there's

652
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: definitely some opportunity there from a analytics metrics standpoint that

653
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 2: we'll probably touch on as we're close to the season,

654
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: but we don't want to get too much in the

655
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 2: leagues now. But I think there's a really good point on.

656
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 9: There will be a research piece I did one last year.

657
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 9: Does finishing drives equate to against the spread victory? And

658
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 9: the answer is absolutely yes, So yes, s success rate matters.

659
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 6: One more point to hit on is you know, through

660
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 6: the lens of twenty fourteen to today in the fourteen playoff era,

661
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 6: a gambling trends that stands out to you or one

662
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 6: that you've either mined yourself, you've tailed, just had the

663
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 6: warm fuzzies for because this may be a lot of

664
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 6: money for me. It's shocking how few upsets there are

665
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 6: at the very top of the pole. So from two

666
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 6: thousand and one to twenty twelve, nine unranked teams beat

667
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 6: the number one team in the country. Since then, it's

668
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 6: happened one time, and that's when A and M upset Alabama. Now,

669
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 6: a big part of that is the Saban and Kirby

670
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 6: smart effect and kind of how they've taken the roster

671
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 6: building to a different level. But also when you start

672
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 6: to look at the top five's also a huge difference

673
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 6: in terms of the overall upsets. So since the start

674
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 6: of the twenty nineteen season, four years worth of games,

675
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 6: we've only seen nine top five upsets by unranked teams.

676
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 6: And thanks to our action labs, you know, data treasure trove,

677
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 6: you know, we can go all the way back to

678
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 6: two thousand and five. There was twice as many of

679
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 6: those upsets from five to thirteen, thirty eight of them

680
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 6: in nine years, so you really have seen kind of

681
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 6: a stabilizing factor at the top of the polls. It

682
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 6: still happens from time to time, but in terms of

683
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 6: me building my card and taking those kind of wild

684
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 6: moneyline shots, I've kind of really reeled it in just

685
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 6: because you're not seeing them hit. As I mentioned, there

686
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 6: was nine top five upsets in the last four years.

687
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 6: Iowa was one of them. I don't think anybody was

688
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 6: buying in on Iowa at that point in the season.

689
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 6: Michigan State also is upset by Produce scoring two in

690
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 6: the same year. So really it's just to me, at least,

691
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 6: there's been kind of a dearth of these wild upsets

692
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 6: that we really saw in the mid auds.

693
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 7: What are your thoughts on those?

694
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree. I think it might only continue.

695
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 2: But mine is I'll go back to an old reliable men.

696
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 2: It has to be service academies and underdogs. I've seen

697
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 2: how people model these things. I don't even know how

698
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 2: to necessarily model them either, as far as like your

699
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 2: basic model when you're going up against the service count team,

700
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: like take for example, success for it doesn't matter, like

701
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 2: three yards is fine for them. So underdogs, especially double

702
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 2: digit underdogs. But I don't know who knows how anymore

703
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: we'll get, but we'll get one against Notre Dame. They're

704
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 2: sixty sixty five percent. It makes sense why, and it

705
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 2: makes sense why the market hasn't adjusted because they're so

706
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 2: you know, there's only a couple of year, and how

707
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 2: everyone is setting odds.

708
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 3: I thought the linesbigers some of the most respect in

709
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 3: the world.

710
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 2: They still don't not accept these, even the totals, because

711
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 2: it's just such a unique style. And then we'll translate

712
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: that into postseason, our favorite time there ball season. Service

713
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 2: academies and balls, they're always going to show up. A

714
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 2: lot of it's beout motivation still true to this day.

715
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: I think it's seventy one percent over the past forty years.

716
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: So Service Academy is always near and dear to my

717
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: heart and my shoulder with Army Navy helmet.

718
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, of course I gotta stay on. Brandon said

719
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 3: that col.

720
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 9: Mine is the semi finals of the playoff. This spread

721
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 9: never matters. It never matters. And I mean I'm looking

722
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 9: at all the scores right now and I'm riding this

723
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 9: pretty high until Georgia Beatlehiose State by one point this

724
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 9: last year. But before that, I mean, if if you

725
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 9: were a favorite, you always covered or you lost out right.

726
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 9: The spread was never it was never an underdog covering

727
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 9: and losing the game. And I mean I can go

728
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 9: back to Alabama beating Washington twenty four to seven. Spread

729
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 9: was sixteen and a half, right, it didn't matter. And

730
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 9: you know, if I look at all these games, if

731
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 9: you're a favorite, you either won out right or you

732
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 9: lost out right. So there was no need to ever

733
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 9: in a semi final game take an underdog. You're going

734
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 9: to take the money line, and that I mean, I'll keep.

735
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 7: Writing that this year.

736
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 9: I'm not sure it's going to work with a twelve

737
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 9: team playoff, but you know, even with Ohio States showing up,

738
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 9: I think that's a one off especially considered.

739
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 7: We all considered Ohio State.

740
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 9: Good enough to be in the playoff against Georgia, but

741
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 9: all the other years complete blowouts in the semi finals.

742
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 2: I would also add, this is very we'll have to

743
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 2: talk about this year this year, but always fade Arkansas

744
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 2: against Bobby Petrino.

745
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: Anyway, Well, if we have more time to get to

746
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: that in the future.

747
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 6: Brett, any gambling trends that you've been able to take advantage.

748
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 8: Of, Yeah, I mean this is I guess more straight

749
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 8: up than against spread, and it will only work for

750
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 8: this season and then the twelve team playoff comes.

751
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: And this will be useless.

752
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 8: But Mike, it's kind of something you hit on on

753
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 8: the lack of upsets. So we've had nine years in

754
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 8: the playoff. At the point of the season where there

755
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 8: are four weeks left in the regular season, the teams

756
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 8: that made playoff at that point in the season four

757
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 8: weeks left in the season, thirty of the thirty six

758
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 8: teams were ranked in the top six.

759
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: At that time.

760
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 8: In other words, nobody's going to come storming back from seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven,

761
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 8: twelve for the most part, So thirty out of thirty

762
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 8: six with four weeks to go, your top four is

763
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 8: out of those top six, you want to take it

764
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 8: a couple of steps further the week before the conference

765
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 8: title game, so the regular season is complete. Every single

766
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,240
Speaker 8: team that has made the playoff ranked in the top

767
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 8: six going into conference championship weekend.

768
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:36,919
Speaker 1: So if you think your.

769
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 8: Number seven team or eight team has a chance, the

770
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 8: reality is there's too many bodies to climb over and

771
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 8: you're not gonna make it. Of the thirty six teams

772
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 8: that have made the playoff, only two ranked number six

773
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 8: going into conference title game weekend, and only four ranked

774
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 8: at number five. That means the remaining thirty teams were

775
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:57,760
Speaker 8: already in the top four.

776
00:35:58,239 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: Kind of what you were touching on, Mike.

777
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 8: There a lot of upsets, but I think it's a

778
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 8: it's kind of a combination. There haven't been a lot

779
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 8: or any upsets in the SEC title game as they

780
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 8: are usually the top ranked team, and two, there's just

781
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 8: too many bodies to climb over to climb up that far.

782
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 8: Even in twenty fourteen, you know, Ohio State, they were

783
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 8: fit and TCU plummeted, so they were in position. People

784
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 8: just didn't expect TCU to fall from three to six.

785
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 8: But again, if you're wanting to play on a potential

786
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 8: national title team when you get into the month of November,

787
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 8: I would recommend not taking anybody outside the top six.

788
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 8: Your odds are going to be great, but you know,

789
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 8: just send it to me. I'll book it for you

790
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 8: because they're not going to win the national.

791
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 2: Time and that's a great transition into any potential futures.

792
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: I don't have any now. I'll see if I can

793
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:55,320
Speaker 2: avoid going to Vegas this summer and not getting drunk

794
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 2: and firing on futures. National title futures, I should say,

795
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: because I just pulled out of my desk. Every year

796
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: I go and then I'll buy last year Arizona State

797
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,720
Speaker 2: two under to watch a Brice like, why two hundred

798
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: to win thirty grand?

799
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 3: You know, if you know what it was, two hundred to.

800
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 2: Win zero hour the sit it actually at least have

801
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 2: provided this little piece of content worth maybe three cents.

802
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 3: So I have no futures yet.

803
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,919
Speaker 2: I'm just taking notes now and I'll get in during

804
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 2: the summer and we'll have obviously all of our preview episodes,

805
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 2: so conin, I don't know if you have any win

806
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 2: totals futures there's something just at least one. I know

807
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 2: people can go check out all this stuff on the

808
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 2: Action Network app and follow on that, but is there

809
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,240
Speaker 2: something that's still out there that you feel really passionate

810
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: about you want to bring up?

811
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 9: Well, I mean I've taken LSU and Clemson futures so far.

812
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 9: LSU was the first one out of the gate after

813
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 9: the national title. I am so excited to see Harold Perkins.

814
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 9: They've had defense around him is going to be as

815
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 9: good as him. Uh, They're loaded at quarterback no matter

816
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 9: who they choose where they go, it's i think the

817
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 9: most talented team in the SEC West. The news out

818
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 9: of Bama is not making me feel like they're gonna

819
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 9: be able to hold up and give l s UNI competition.

820
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 9: So I'm happy with my LSU national title futures. As

821
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 9: far as win totals, I think I got seven or

822
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 9: eight in the app Power five. I am fully prepared

823
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:10,919
Speaker 9: for a group of five to hit the board at

824
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 9: one of the you know, one of the books, and

825
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 9: once it does, I'll load up the app with with

826
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 9: more of those, and I'll keep pushing out these nice

827
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 9: PNG photo pictures of each team's summary and their their

828
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 9: win totals.

829
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,959
Speaker 3: Yeah great, Yeah, I did it.

830
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 9: Really for us so that when we podcast, it's like

831
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 9: we got a great summary right here, you know.

832
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 7: I mean it's now that the portals closed for good.

833
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 9: I'm ready to fire on as many wind totals as

834
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 9: possible and start making some conference future bets.

835
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 7: Oh and we'll save this for next pod.

836
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 9: I did fire on Texas plus one fifty to win.

837
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 7: The Big Poll.

838
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, we'll talk about that next pot. By the way,

839
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 2: this has gonna stay with some two years.

840
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 3: Ago and not last year. I want to clarify that.

841
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 3: And then Iowa State by.

842
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 2: The way, Now, now party is like he's a lot

843
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 2: NFL starter.

844
00:38:58,640 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 3: Where is this?

845
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 2: Yeah? I thought that they were gonna potentially go to

846
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 2: the coswew of playoff.

847
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 4: Brock, I know, but now it comes in in January

848
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 4: and he's fine, Like what I mean?

849
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 2: I see, I was onto something before anybody. Unfortunately, it

850
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 2: just costs me money.

851
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 6: It's two more things, just quick. I like penn State

852
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 6: to win the Big ten. I'm still waiting here in

853
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 6: Pennsylvania for that number to hit. They're twenty five to

854
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 6: one to win the national title, so anywhere north of

855
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 6: five to one. I think this holistically could be Franklin's

856
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 6: best roster. Aler is the missing piece. I know it's

857
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 6: a gamble, but he has all the pedigree he showed

858
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 6: off the arm strength. He can do things and stretch

859
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 6: the defense in ways that Clifford couldn't last year. And

860
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 6: their offensive line has an opportunity to be special. They

861
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 6: got top ten pick at left tackle, they got three

862
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 6: other seniors on the line. Really like their backfield, so

863
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 6: I like Penn State. Also like the way the schedule

864
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 6: shakes out. It's not clumped together in terms of their

865
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 6: difficult games.

866
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 7: If you want a flyer, you've.

867
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 2: Been hanging out on line now of lately a lot

868
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 2: I have.

869
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 6: Not, And if you know me, there's no love loss

870
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 6: for me and the Nitney Lions. So for me to

871
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 6: pull the trigger on them for the first time in

872
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 6: my gambling career. From a future's perspective, I'm really gritting

873
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 6: my teeth putting that bad in. But if you want

874
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 6: to talk about a flyer, how about Duke forty to

875
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 6: one to win the acc the arguably the biggest game

876
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 6: in the history of Duke football, and their opener against Clemson.

877
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 6: They win that game all of a sudden things get

878
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 6: really manageable. From a hedge perspective, they arguably have the

879
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 6: most consistent quarterback in the ACC right now. Jordan Travis

880
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 6: has a much higher ceiling. K club Nick higher ceiling.

881
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 6: But we saw Roylan Leonard all season last year and

882
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 6: they pistol whipped you sef in the bowl game.

883
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 3: So I don't know.

884
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 7: I think that's mispriced. I think that's just on name

885
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 7: brand alone.

886
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 8: Real quick, on my future play, whatever play you you

887
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 8: decide on, that's.

888
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: A meta graduated, that's a graduate graduated.

889
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: So we need we need another highs and lung shot.

890
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 8: Right at least T one is conference title. Unlike all

891
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 8: your national title picks, parlay it with Caleb Williams will

892
00:40:58,840 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 8: not win the Hives.

893
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 1: You will be add some more bang for your back.

894
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 6: And then finally, one question from our audience, our listener JT.

895
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 6: Sparks would like to know if you took every college

896
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 6: football playoff champion twenty fourteen to twenty twenty two, you

897
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,839
Speaker 6: put them in a little playoff, who's coming out Number one?

898
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 6: His guest is twenty nineteen Lsu. I'll kick it to

899
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 6: Brett first. Who are you picking to come out on

900
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 6: top of the heap of the playoff champions.

901
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 1: Mike, it would have to be LSU.

902
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 8: But my god, Georgia's team last year with Yes Stets

903
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 8: and Vinnity should have won the Heisman when he's sober.

904
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 8: He's the best quarterback out there. You know, that defense

905
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 8: that would be too bad. You know, at some point,

906
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 8: I guess we can get AI on a match up

907
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 8: those those teams to see what would have happened. But

908
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 8: that defense against Joe Burrow gets your popcorn. I would, man,

909
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 8: I know recency bias. I'd have to lean towards Georgia last.

910
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 2: Year top OLSU because I don't care if Burrow's drunker,

911
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,720
Speaker 2: so he's winning that game. So I'm riding with Barrow.

912
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 2: That twenty nineteen team. You people forget like Georgia could

913
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:08,439
Speaker 2: have lost on a field goal. Like if Ohio State

914
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 2: makes a field goal, that Georgia team goes down last

915
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:12,280
Speaker 2: year right from a very good kicker.

916
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 3: That LSU team.

917
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 2: I remember trying to adjust my power ratings and then

918
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 2: I just said I'm going to just bet them in

919
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 2: the national title. I couldn't adjust them fast enough. I

920
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 2: faded this Georgia team in the semi finals successfully, so

921
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 2: that's where like that LSU team wasn't being touched like

922
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 2: they were, and I just they were just blowing everyone's

923
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 2: rating systems out of the water.

924
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 3: And I'll take Burrow over Bennett.

925
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 7: Two quick things here.

926
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 6: One that LSU defense gave up thirty eight to Texas,

927
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 6: thirty seven to Ole Miss, and forty one to Bama

928
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 6: that season.

929
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 7: They're also untouchable that offense. What did what did CJ.

930
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 3: Shroud do to Georgia's d Well?

931
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 6: How about the twenty I won Georgia team Because the

932
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 6: entire twenty twenty one Georgia defense, every starter got drafted

933
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 6: in the NFL. So I would roll with that team.

934
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 6: If you're making an argument to potentially I agree that

935
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 6: LSU nineteen should be the number one seed in this thing,

936
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 6: which thank you Brett for bringing this up. Currently working

937
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 6: on a book where I'm simulating the sixty eight best

938
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 6: college of ball team since nineteen eighty that should, hopefully,

939
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 6: if everything works out ready, it'll come out before the

940
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 6: College of Ble season starts. But LSU nineteen is a

941
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 6: one seed for me. Ninety five Nebraska, oh one Miami,

942
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 6: and four USC those are the four number ones.

943
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 2: But yeah, so you're agreeing, So you're agreeing it's to

944
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 2: day the other one you're agreeing that it would be them, right.

945
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 6: I agree that they deserve to be number one of

946
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 6: the College Football Playoff champions. I just there's something about

947
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:41,320
Speaker 6: the twenty twenty one Georgia team defensively and Stetson Bennett

948
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 6: playing so well in crunch time his entire career. I

949
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 6: think if they matched up hypothetically, LSU's what a two

950
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 6: and a half three point favorite on neutral field, So

951
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 6: I think they're a slight favorite in that game.

952
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 9: An oddsmager that I respect said that LSU twenty nineteen

953
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 9: would have been two and a half point favorites over

954
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 9: the Georgia team that just played. So I remember from

955
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 9: my power ratings that have been like one and a half.

956
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,800
Speaker 9: So obviously I would lean LSU. But I'm nervous because

957
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 9: that is the same day of Randa defense. It gave

958
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 9: up thirty to Vandy. But Stuck is right. This Georgia

959
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 9: team did give up forty one points to C. J. Stroud,

960
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:15,959
Speaker 9: So I think it would go down to the wire.

961
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 9: But you know, I'd stick with the odds makers and

962
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 9: say that LSU wins by two. The difference in that game.

963
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 9: Calvary's is Clyde Edwards Laar and the reason is because

964
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 9: Georgia played so much quarters coverage. It would back everybody

965
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 9: off about twelve yards back off the line of scrimmage,

966
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 9: and the ability for Burrow to dump off there at

967
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 9: the line of scrimmage, it would be completely just a

968
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 9: game changer.

969
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, we also look a lot of respect for that

970
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 2: Georgia day lsu and undefeated. That twenty twenty one jord

971
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 2: team did not. They got blown out in a game

972
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 2: and they beat Clemson ten to three on like a

973
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 2: pick six early in the season. I just don't think

974
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 2: that that Georgia offense would have kept up ultimately.

975
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 6: Just to play Devil's Avocado one last time. That Georgia

976
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 6: defense gave up single digit points per game, and when

977
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 6: you factor in their defensive scores, their net was like

978
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 6: minus three per game. So I agree that as the

979
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 6: season went on they got better offensively. I'll also throw

980
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 6: one more team in the ring.

981
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 7: Twenty eighteen.

982
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 6: Clemson, I think for some reason, is getting lost to history.

983
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 6: They got Trevor Lawrence. The receiving corps was probably the

984
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 6: best that it's been since Mike Williams left Clemson, they

985
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 6: had ETCN and then they had the Power Rangers on

986
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 6: the defensive line, and it's kind of what Colin was

987
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 6: talking about this whole episode. They can drop seven guys

988
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,359
Speaker 6: and get to the quarterback in that situation. So I

989
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 6: also think schematically personnel wise, they were a good matchup.

990
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 7: They'd still be an.

991
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 6: Underdog the twenty nineteen LSU, but I think that'd be

992
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:35,879
Speaker 6: an interesting head to head as well.

993
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 3: Yep, all right, well that'll do it for us.

994
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 6: There's been the Big Bets on Campus podcast, brought to

995
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 6: you by bet MGM for Stucky, Brett and Colin on

996
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 6: Mike Calabaries. Thanks so much for listening my little show.

997
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 6: The Group of Five Deep Dive with Mike Ianello will

998
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 6: be sure to get plenty of love to the Group

999
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 6: of Five because they're much maligned at this point. They're

1000
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 6: just getting rated. They're Oregon donors to the rich and

1001
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,479
Speaker 6: giving up all their best teams to the Power Five.

1002
00:45:57,600 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 6: But there's gonna be some interesting races in there this

1003
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 6: up seasons. We'll be sure to dig through everything to

1004
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 6: give you as much.

1005
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 7: Value as possible. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll

1006
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 7: caet you next time.

1007
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 3: Peers.

1008
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 7: Peace Out.

1009
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 9: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1010
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1011
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:28,839
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1012
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:29,719
Speaker 5: hundred gambler