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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Draff

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Speaker 1: j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone.

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Speaker 2: It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode ten ninety eight

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Speaker 2: of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: I went over my pre draft rookie rankings right before

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Speaker 2: the draft, and then my post draft rookie rankings were

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Speaker 2: immediately in the Prospect Guy when that draft ended. But

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Speaker 2: I don't do this post draft rookie rankings episode right away.

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Speaker 2: I let it sit for a minute. That's why you

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Speaker 2: heard the Analyzing Front office decision making episode last week

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Speaker 2: that allowed me to talk more about these situations across

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Speaker 2: the league and across the draft. But we're back with

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Speaker 2: the rankings today. I'll be going through the first round

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Speaker 2: of single quarterback rookie drafts, though I can tell you

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Speaker 2: where I'd throw Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson and Superflex

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: It's a straightforward.

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Speaker 2: Episode, but now that we have landing spots, I can

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Speaker 2: talk about how I'm letting those landing spots dictate things.

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Speaker 2: Now before I get in the post draft rankings, I

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Speaker 2: just wanted to send another reminder about the Late Round

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Speaker 2: Prospect Guide. It's all updated. It's ready for your rookie drafts,

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Speaker 2: over one hundred and seventy pages of content, including a

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Speaker 2: background on the ZAP Models, prospect write ups for every

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Speaker 2: guy who is at the combine, year two profile writeups, rankings,

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Speaker 2: and more. You can find it over on lateround dot

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Speaker 2: com and it will deliver immediately to your email inbox

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Speaker 2: after you purchase. Again, that's lateround dot com. Unsurprisingly, my

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Speaker 2: one oh one didn't change pre to post draft. It's

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Speaker 2: still Jeremiah Love. I don't need to go crazy talking

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Speaker 2: about how good Jeremiah Love is as a prospect. I

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Speaker 2: talked about that a couple of weeks ago. But the

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Speaker 2: TLDR eighty eighth percentile, career avoided tackles per attempt rate,

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Speaker 2: seventy fifth percentile, explosive run rate ninety six percentile, yards

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Speaker 2: after contact per attempt ninety fourth percentile age, and schedule

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Speaker 2: adjusted total yards per team playing his best season. The

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Speaker 2: list goes on and on. If there's anything that you

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Speaker 2: might point to and say that it could have been

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Speaker 2: slightly better analytically, it's probably his twelve percent best season

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Speaker 2: reception share. That's a sixty fifth percentile number in the

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Speaker 2: ZAP Model. But you add all of the context on

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Speaker 2: top of him being a great athlete and sharing a

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Speaker 2: backfield with someone who ended up going round one, it's

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Speaker 2: an awesome profile. People are gonna hate the landing spot,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, I would have liked the place like Washington

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Speaker 2: more than Arizona. We could very easily see another Ashton

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Speaker 2: gent like season here where Love is maybe losing some

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Speaker 2: work to start the year, probably to Tyler Algier, especially

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Speaker 2: at the goal line, but then he's fed later on

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Speaker 2: in the season. I do think that the Algier factor

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Speaker 2: is something to consider in the short term only because

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Speaker 2: we've seen him share a backfield with a stud in

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Speaker 2: the NFL and he's taken work from that other player

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Speaker 2: in Bjean Robinson. Algier saw ten goal line rushes last year.

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Speaker 2: He's not bad in that role, but admittedly he's just

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Speaker 2: been average when it comes to converting those compared to

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Speaker 2: the fifteen year average of running backs converting goal line carries. Now,

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Speaker 2: that probably doesn't truly matter from a coaching intent perspective.

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Speaker 2: The Cardinals could very well see him in that role

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Speaker 2: given his size, and let's be honest, Arizona probably won't

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Speaker 2: be very good this year. They may not want to

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Speaker 2: even drive Jeremiah Love into the ground, knowing that they

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Speaker 2: want to get more out of him in twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: seven and beyond.

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Speaker 1: The good news is.

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Speaker 2: That I do expect Love to play a pass catching

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Speaker 2: role for the Cardinals this year, and that's in an

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Speaker 2: offense that you see plenty of negative game scripts. You

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Speaker 2: can feel bearish about the short term landing spot, and

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Speaker 2: I get it, but players like this they typically find

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Speaker 2: a way. Now, the next tier of players for me

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Speaker 2: consists of Jordan Tyson and Carnell Tate, and you can

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Speaker 2: throw Fernanda Mendoza in here in Superflex as well. I

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Speaker 2: talked about him already on the pre draft show and

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Speaker 2: we knew his landing spots, so nothing really changes there.

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Speaker 2: I do have Tyson over Tate in my rankings, though,

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Speaker 2: which goes against consensus. I'm keeping them in the same tier,

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Speaker 2: but the ZAP model does have a decent enough gap

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Speaker 2: between Tyson and Tate in favor of Tyson, and I

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Speaker 2: actually don't mind the landing spot for Tyson at all.

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Speaker 2: I said it last week, but Chris Alave compliments Tyson

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Speaker 2: pretty well. In my opinion, He's a man. Tyson does

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Speaker 2: well against zone I think Matt Harmon's reception perception work

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Speaker 2: really shows that the.

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Speaker 1: Saints may want to run the ball more.

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Speaker 2: They actually had a minus three percent pass right over

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Speaker 2: expected last year. But Number one, they're not strong enough

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Speaker 2: defensively to not find themselves in negative game scripts consistently.

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Speaker 2: And number two, Kellen Moore coach teams, they always run faster.

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Speaker 2: They run a lot of plays. Last year, the Saints

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Speaker 2: were first in the NFL and seconds per play in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. Kellen Moore's Eagles, a run heavy team,

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Speaker 2: still rank close to top twenty and twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: As Chargers offensive coordinator, the Chargers were first and seconds

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Speaker 2: per play from twenty nineteen through twenty twenty two. When

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Speaker 2: he was with the Cowboys, his offenses were third, first, second,

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Speaker 2: and fourth and seconds per play. Tyler Schuck mostly looked

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Speaker 2: the part, or at least played way better than expected

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Speaker 2: last year, and I think Tyson can take on a

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Speaker 2: lot of those underneath routes while moving all over the

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Speaker 2: formation for the Saints. I kind of see him playing

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Speaker 2: like a Garrett Wilson like role for New Orleans. We

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Speaker 2: can't assume that he's going to be that good, but

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Speaker 2: Tyson's ZAT model marks are excellent, including a ninety ninth

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Speaker 2: percentile breakout score. That's a pretty predictive metric to lean on. Now,

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Speaker 2: ME liking Tyson more than Tate doesn't mean that I

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Speaker 2: don't like Carnell Tate. I do, and I love the

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Speaker 2: fit for Tennessee. Now, on one hand, we didn't have

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Speaker 2: to see Tate as the clear top target on his

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Speaker 2: team in Ohio State, and that was at least a

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Speaker 2: concern to his analytical profile. Would he be a target

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Speaker 2: hog in the NFL or would he be someone who

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Speaker 2: just works better as a real life player, stretching the field,

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Speaker 2: opening things up underneath, et cetera. Well, in Tennessee, he

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Speaker 2: could very easily lead that team in.

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Speaker 1: Targets right away.

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Speaker 2: We probably should project that to be the case, though

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Speaker 2: I do think Wandell Robinson could be close. And one

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Speaker 2: of the things everyone fell in love with with Tate

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Speaker 2: was his ability to get down the field. He can

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Speaker 2: win at all levels, including those down the field throws.

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Speaker 2: And yes, cam Ward struggled last year. He was bottom

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Speaker 2: five and completion percentage over expected, and he was dead

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Speaker 2: last in EPA per dropback. He was significantly worse in

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Speaker 2: EPA per dropback than JJ McCarthy. The weapons in the infrastructure,

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Speaker 2: though clearly weren't there, and if nothing else, we know

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Speaker 2: that Ward has the arm to get the ball down

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Speaker 2: the field, even if that didn't happen quite as frequently

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Speaker 2: as we won it last season. If you'd rather go

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Speaker 2: Tate because the draft capitol was a little bit stronger,

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Speaker 2: or you just like that, he's not competing with a

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Speaker 2: great receiver in Chris alave be my guest, that's why

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Speaker 2: they're in the same tier. But I do think that

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Speaker 2: Tyson is the better prospect for fantasy football, and there's

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Speaker 2: still plenty of avenues for Tyson to get his within

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Speaker 2: that Saints offense. Things get interesting after the one to

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Speaker 2: oh three in single quarterback leagues and the one oh

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Speaker 2: four in super flex leagues. In my eyes, you could

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Speaker 2: go after three players, the first one being Mackay Lemon.

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Speaker 2: Now I mentioned this last week, but I do think

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Speaker 2: the fit in Philadelphia it's really interesting for a few reasons.

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Speaker 2: Number One, it signals that AJ Brown is probably gone.

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Speaker 2: That's gonna happen soon, so we're assuming that he's out

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Speaker 2: of the picture. Number Two, Lemon was a slot player

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Speaker 2: in college. He ran almost seventy six percent of his

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Speaker 2: out of the slot during his collegiate career, But like

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Speaker 2: I said last week, I'm not going to be overly

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Speaker 2: concerned about that when you layer on his production profile

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Speaker 2: and his draft capital. Since twenty twenty, first round wide

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Speaker 2: receivers with a sixty percent slot rader higher include Jerry Judy,

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Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson, Jalen Wattle, Kadarius Tony, Drake London, Treylon Burks,

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Speaker 2: Jackson Smith and Jigba Jordan Addison, a Mecca Buka, and

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Speaker 2: now Mackay Lemon and Casey Conceptsion. If you look at

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Speaker 2: seventy percent or more, you get Wattle, Tony Burks, jsn Abuka,

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Speaker 2: and then the two guys from this year's class, and

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Speaker 2: you may be hearing Kadarius Tony's name and you're scared.

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Speaker 2: But his production profile was not even close to what

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Speaker 2: you're getting with Mackay Lemon or even Casey Conceptsion. To me,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles don't draft Lemon where they draft him if

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Speaker 2: they're thinking that he can't move to the outside. Had

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Speaker 2: he been a second round pick, maybe there's more concern,

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Speaker 2: but with this draft capital that's less. So the case,

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Speaker 2: Lemon does project a win in the short areas and

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the field, though, and while j

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Speaker 2: Aalen Hurts hasn't been bad when he has thrown to

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Speaker 2: that area of the field, he hasn't done it frequently.

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Speaker 2: In fact, since he entered the league, he's thrown to

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Speaker 2: the middle of the field at the lowest rate in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. Those are some of the stats that I

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Speaker 2: threw out you guys last week. But the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: a smart organization. They know all this, and that means

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Speaker 2: that McKay lemon could be taking on a much bigger

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Speaker 2: role than what he had in college.

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Speaker 1: He has the ability to be.

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Speaker 2: On the perimeter. His perimeter yards per out run across

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Speaker 2: his career was the highest within this class and he

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Speaker 2: had an eighty eighth percentile breakout score. But also there's

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Speaker 2: a new offensive coordinator in town. Things should look a

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Speaker 2: lot different in Philly year over year, and the fact

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Speaker 2: that they took Eli Stowers that does hurt mckaye lemon

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Speaker 2: a little bit, just because he's kind of in a

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Speaker 2: similar boat where he works as a pass catching tight end,

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Speaker 2: but he can work on the outside as well. But

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Speaker 2: these moves signal to me that the Eagles have a

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Speaker 2: plan and Lemon had a solid ZAP score that put

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Speaker 2: him in the elite producer category.

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Speaker 1: So my stance is that, yes, it would.

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Speaker 2: Have been a cleaner projection had McKay Lemon gone to

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Speaker 2: a more wide open depth chart where the quarterback was

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Speaker 2: known for his accuracy on timing routes. That's what we

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Speaker 2: got with like Aman Ross Saint Brown when he was drafted.

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Speaker 2: Even if that's just a hindsight take, that means that

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Speaker 2: Lemon has to do a little bit more in order

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Speaker 2: to hit. He can't just hit his median projection as

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Speaker 2: a player as a talent, but I'm willing to risk

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Speaker 2: that at this point in rookie drafts because the overall

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Speaker 2: profile is very strong.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I like Lemon in that spot, but the player I

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Speaker 2: probably disagree versus consensus with more is Casey Conceptsione who

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Speaker 2: I have next? Conceptsion falls to the Browns and everyone

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Speaker 2: hates it, not just because it's the Browns, but they've

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Speaker 2: got Jerry Judy, they have Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannins there

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Speaker 2: and the Browns also drafted Denzel Boston in round two.

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Speaker 2: I'm just a believer of a couple of things here. First,

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Speaker 2: I think Conceptsion's a good prospect better than others do.

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Speaker 2: He scored very close to Lemon and the ZAP model.

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Speaker 2: He found himself in that elite producer category as well

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Speaker 2: when it was all said and done. But second, I

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Speaker 2: think you can squint and see sort of a bigger

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Speaker 2: version of Zay Flowers with Nceepsion's profile, and Concepcion's profile

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Speaker 2: is better according to the ZAP model. He's younger, he

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Speaker 2: had a better breakout score, but both profiles were a

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Speaker 2: little bit non traditional, and Todd Monkin worked with that

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Speaker 2: and worked with Zay Flowers in Baltimore. And I'd also

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Speaker 2: be shocked if a year from now we're looking at

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Speaker 2: this Cleveland Browns team the exact same way. There's a

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Speaker 2: very real chance they're drafting high next season and they're

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Speaker 2: looking for a quarterback they can get out of Jerry

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Speaker 2: Judy's contract, and Cedric Tillman's a free agent. This could

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Speaker 2: be a case where I actually don't think Conceptsion is

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Speaker 2: dust and redraft this year with this twenty twenty six season.

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Speaker 2: But even if he is, the market may be more

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Speaker 2: forgiving than you think, because the market will recognize that

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Speaker 2: the situation will almost definitely be better next year. So

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Speaker 2: I'm betting on the talent profile here with conceptsion, and

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Speaker 2: I'm saying that while I think the landing spot isn't amazing,

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Speaker 2: it's probably not quite as bad long term as many think.

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Speaker 1: And then the other.

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Speaker 2: Player in this tier for me is the biggest riser

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Speaker 2: post draft and this Jendarium Price. If you want to

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Speaker 2: take Price above the wider receivers, I can get behind it.

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Speaker 2: Just know that it's a lot more volatile. I'd rather

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Speaker 2: take the wideouts if I had just one dynasty roster. Yes,

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Speaker 2: the first round draft capital is nice, and he actually

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Speaker 2: doesn't look that bad in the ZAP model because of

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Speaker 2: that capital, and because he played alongside Jeremiah Love, who

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Speaker 2: went about as high as he possibly could have gone

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Speaker 2: this year from a draft capital perspective, that's really boosting

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Speaker 2: Price's teammate score. But yeah, I mean, in the end.

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Speaker 1: We just don't know.

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Speaker 2: Price is the worst production profile not just any first

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Speaker 2: round running back in the ZAT model's history, but also

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Speaker 2: any Day one or Day two pick. That's what I

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Speaker 2: would argue among top one hundred picks in the ZAP

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Speaker 2: Model database. At running back, which goes back to twenty eleven,

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Speaker 2: Price's dead last and pro rated best season reception share.

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Speaker 2: He's tied for the second worst adjusted total yards per

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Speaker 2: team play, which looks at total yards per team play

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Speaker 2: and adjusted for strength of schedule and age, and that's

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Speaker 2: of his best season. Only Josh Jacobs was worse, but

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Speaker 2: Jacobs had a lot more going for him as a receiver.

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Speaker 2: And funny enough, by the way, the player that Price

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Speaker 2: is tied with who has top one hundred draft capital

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Speaker 2: within that metric is Kaylon Black. But then Price has

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Speaker 2: an adjusted receiving yards for team pass attempt that's sixth worst,

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Speaker 2: and each of the backs with a lower number busted.

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Speaker 2: This is an outlier case, to say the least, and

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Speaker 2: because of that we have to keep an open mind.

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Speaker 2: It's different than a player like Kaylon Black, who didn't

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Speaker 2: get the same type of draft capitol and who's twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half years old. He had his opportunity

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Speaker 2: to shine, he just didn't really do that. With Price,

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Speaker 2: he played alongside a truly elite prospect who got insane

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Speaker 2: draft capital. I've said this before on the show, but

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Speaker 2: while I do think Seattle is a great landing spot

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Speaker 2: within the context of possible reasonable landing spots in this class.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's like amazing.

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Speaker 2: The team lost Clinton Kubiak to the Raiders, so the

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Speaker 2: offense might not be as strong in.

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Speaker 1: The short term and it could look different.

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Speaker 2: Just to be fair, maybe we see less of a

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Speaker 2: split backfield compared to last year, but we definitely saw

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Speaker 2: a split backfield last year with Kenneth Walker. I wrote

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Speaker 2: the following in the Late Round Prospect Guide. It's probably

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Speaker 2: still worthwhile to temper expectations. Seattle ran hot last year

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Speaker 2: and still ranked his twelfth and running back PPR scoring,

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Speaker 2: and they frustratingly split their backfield. In sixteen games with

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Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker and Sharbonay active together, Walker led with a

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Speaker 2: forty three point two percent rushing share to Sharboney's thirty

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Speaker 2: eight point eight percent twelve point eight to eleven point

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Speaker 2: five carries per game. Meanwhile, Sharboney handled about seventy three

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Speaker 2: percent of the team's goal line work, leading to eleven

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Speaker 2: point eight expected touchdowns versus four point seven for Walker. Now,

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Speaker 2: of course, Price is going to compete with Emmanuel Wilson

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Speaker 2: and George Hallane to start the year because Zach Sharboney

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Speaker 2: is banged up, but there's already a report floating around

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Speaker 2: that says that Price might not be a bell coow

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Speaker 2: right away, which makes sense. He literally wasn't that in college,

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Speaker 2: and I think there's a real chance that by the

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Speaker 2: time he gets enough reps, we may see Sharbonay back

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Speaker 2: on the field like later on in the season, which

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Speaker 2: is obviously Price's biggest hurdle. In general, with running back,

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Speaker 2: I care less about how insane the production profile is

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Speaker 2: because a team can simply say, hey, we want you

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Speaker 2: to be the workhorse a wide receiver running a route

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Speaker 2: is not enough. You have to get open. You have

299
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Speaker 2: to earn that target, making it a more talent driven position.

300
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Speaker 2: So I keep more of an open mind with running backs.

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Speaker 2: The thing is, though, with a profile like this, you

302
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 2: should really understand that it's highly, highly volatile, and I'm

303
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,920
Speaker 2: not sure that the ceiling is like a top ten

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Speaker 2: dynasty running back Top twenty definitely, But Price still has

305
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Speaker 2: work to do as a pass catcher and in pass

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00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 2: pro that could limit that fantasy upside, and if the

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00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 2: team doesn't end up using him at the goal line,

308
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,840
Speaker 2: that could be a huge problem. That's why I still

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00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,239
Speaker 2: have him ranked below even a player like Casey Concepcione.

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Speaker 2: I really want this next tier to just be Kenyan Sadik.

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Speaker 2: I did have Omar Cooper in at post draft, and

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Speaker 2: I'll talk about Cooper in here as well, but I

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Speaker 2: do think I like Sadik almost a tier above Cooper.

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Speaker 2: Sadik scored really well in the ZAP model. He had

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Speaker 2: a score of ninety eight point five. That's higher than

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Speaker 2: any other player from this and I've gotten a lot

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Speaker 2: of questions from people who are like, why isn't Kenyan

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Speaker 2: Sadik ranked a head of KC Concepcion when Sadik has

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Speaker 2: the better ZAP score. It's because that's not how ZAP

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Speaker 2: scores are supposed to be consumed, and it's my fault

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Speaker 2: if I haven't made that clear. The ZAP scores are

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Speaker 2: meant to compare within the position. A legendary performer at

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Speaker 2: tight end is way different than a legendary performer at

324
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Speaker 2: running back. At tight end, we rarely see huge, huge

325
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Speaker 2: difference making players, largely because number one, they're not massive

326
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Speaker 2: parts of NFL offenses and don't see as many touches

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Speaker 2: as an elite running back would. But number two, we

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Speaker 2: only start one of them in our fantasy squads. They're

329
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,760
Speaker 2: just not as important in fantasy football. But yes, according

330
00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:42,680
Speaker 2: to the Zapp model, within the context of the position,

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Speaker 2: Sadik is a very good prospect. He's not Brock Bauers,

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Speaker 2: he's not Kyle Pitts, but he's extremely good. And I'll

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00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,080
Speaker 2: say what I've said before, I feel like people are

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00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 2: recognizing his age when they talk about his production profile.

335
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 2: His production profile could be better, sure, but he still

336
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,520
Speaker 2: had an eighty six percentile Brankout score, which is age

337
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,560
Speaker 2: and schedule adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. And

338
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 2: if you compare his yards put run across his career,

339
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 2: it's one point seven to two. According to PFF, It's

340
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,880
Speaker 2: really not that different from a lot of elite tight

341
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,560
Speaker 2: ends in fantasy football, and how they performed across their

342
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 2: first three years, like Samuel Porta or Trey McBride. They

343
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,720
Speaker 2: just happened to play more in college. Now, I thought

344
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 2: the landing spot was weak, but Brandon Gadula made a

345
00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 2: great point in the Sadiq profile in the Prospect Guide.

346
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 2: Frank Reich, the Jets new offensive coordinator across ten seasons

347
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 2: where Reich was a team's coordinator, head coach. His teams

348
00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 2: have just ranked once outside the top twenty and tight

349
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,320
Speaker 2: end target share, while ranking in the top five four

350
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 2: different times. I low key don't really mind the Jets

351
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 2: offense in twenty twenty six for fantasy purposes. That doesn't

352
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Speaker 2: mean I'm gonna be drafting tons and tons of Sadik.

353
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Speaker 2: I actually haven't taken him yet in post draft best Ball.

354
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,640
Speaker 2: But there's a world where you can still command a

355
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 2: twenty percent target share this year in this offense. But

356
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Speaker 2: one of the ways that happens is if Omar Cooper

357
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,000
Speaker 2: doesn't really hit. And unfortunately, both of those guys kind

358
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 2: of project to occupy a similar area of the field.

359
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,680
Speaker 2: They're both extreme yards after the catch profiles. Cooper actually

360
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 2: didn't score that much better than Jeremy Bernard and Denzel

361
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,880
Speaker 2: Boston in the ZAP model. I do think his comp

362
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,959
Speaker 2: of ver Shee Rice is pretty accurate when just kind

363
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 2: of getting a quick and dirty way of thinking about

364
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,440
Speaker 2: him in the NFL, but Rice also found the perfect

365
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,640
Speaker 2: spot to really exploit that skill set, and to be honest,

366
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 2: that model didn't really love Vershee Rice. Cooper had a

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00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,679
Speaker 2: fifty fifth percentile breakout score, but he did have some

368
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,879
Speaker 2: versatility in his production, logging ninety seven rushing yards and

369
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 2: the pair of scorers on the ground. I think New

370
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 2: York can get really creative with him and deploy him

371
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 2: all over the field. But I'm fearful he's gonna have

372
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Speaker 2: a cap target ceiling in year one or early on

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Speaker 2: in his career, especially if the Jets run more twelve personnel.

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Speaker 2: Because they have Sadik and they have Mason Taylor who

375
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 2: they drafted last year. Ad Nai Mitchell is easily the

376
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 2: biggest bodied wide out that they have right now. He

377
00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 2: profiles best to play the X, not that Garrett Wilson can't,

378
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,400
Speaker 2: So that's where Adnai Mitchell projects. So that could hurt

379
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 2: Cooper's route share and snapchair, which makes me a little

380
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,199
Speaker 2: bit more pessimistic in the short term. And then you

381
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:10,920
Speaker 2: add in the fact that the ZAP model's not like

382
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,719
Speaker 2: totally in love, and that leads me to having Cooper

383
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 2: more as a fringe player within this tier. It's just

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Speaker 2: such a weak class that I'm gonna keep him here.

385
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 2: And this is also where i think you can start

386
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 2: considering Ty Simpson in Superflex, though I'm not super all

387
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 2: in on that idea. Mostly because there's gonna be a

388
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 2: period where you're just simply holding onto that asset. Now,

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Speaker 2: this final tier to wrap up the first round of

390
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Speaker 2: these drafts, it's just a bunch of dudes. It's pretty deep.

391
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,919
Speaker 2: I'm gonna rapid fire with who I've got here. I

392
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 2: do have Mendoza in single quarterback leagues, but aside from him,

393
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 2: I have Denzel Boston, Jeremy Bernard, Antonio Williams, Jonah Coleman,

394
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 2: and then possibly Chris Bell or like an Eli Stowers

395
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 2: at the end of this tier, depending on your flavor. Now,

396
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 2: I have concerns about Denzel Boston's overall profile. It's a

397
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,200
Speaker 2: pretty average breakout score. He's not as good of a

398
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 2: prospect his case. He conceptsion. He's got a career yards

399
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 2: per out run that sits in a subset that typically

400
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 2: does not hit at a high rate. I'll say it again,

401
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 2: though it's a weak class. He's a bigger, bodied perimeter

402
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,120
Speaker 2: guy who could give you something. I've comped him all

403
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,399
Speaker 2: off season to Jayden Higgins, and I'm gonna stick with

404
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 2: that comp.

405
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 1: I still think it applies. He's good.

406
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 2: I just don't think he's great. Jeremy Bernard seems really

407
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 2: underrated in these early rookie drafts. I don't think he's

408
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 2: like a massively high ceiling player, but he played alongside

409
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: a lot of NFL talent throughout his collegiate journey and

410
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 2: he still had some production.

411
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 1: And Pittsburgh is a landing spot.

412
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, not amazing, but the Steelers have outs with both

413
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 2: dk Metcalf and Michael Pittman next year and they needed

414
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 2: a slock guy, so Bernard can find the field right away.

415
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 2: There's versatility to his profile. The model really likes that

416
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 2: he's a solid prospect. He's not spectacular, but he's solid.

417
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: Antonio Williams got the perfect landing spot. His top comp

418
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,360
Speaker 2: in the ZAP model was Lad McConkey, so it's something

419
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 2: that we should be p paying attention to. He was

420
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 2: used heavily in the slot, which is a little bit

421
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 2: scary for fantasy forecasting. But we're already hearing that the

422
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: commanders think that he can play Z which would really

423
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 2: up his range of outcomes. I said it in The

424
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 2: Prospect Guy when it was published, but I could easily

425
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 2: argue Williams at the top of this tier ahead of

426
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: someone like Denzel Boston, Chris Bell, and Eli Stowers. They're

427
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 2: the higher variance plays, but I also have Jonah Coleman

428
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 2: in this tier. I talked about Coleman at length on

429
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: last week's show, and as I said, I think there's

430
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: a non zero chance there might even be a good

431
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 2: chance that the Dynasty market views Coleman higher than RJ.

432
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: Harvey at the end of the season. He's not elite

433
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 2: at one thing, but he can do everything and after JK.

434
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 2: Dobbins went down last year, it was clear the Broncos

435
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 2: needed a running back like that, a reliable running back.

436
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: RJ.

437
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 2: Harvey just couldn't fill the void. He was bottom three

438
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 2: and rushing yards overexpected per attemph last year. He wasn't

439
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: enough of that grinder for that offense. That's what Coleman

440
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 2: can bring to the table. So very very intrigued. And yes,

441
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 2: having a running back selected after pick one hundred as

442
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 2: a one to two turn pick in rookie drafts is very,

443
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: very gross, but that's what this class is really all about.

444
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: It's not deep at all.

445
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: So go and get the guys that you like, the

446
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 2: guys that you can back as prospects, the guys who

447
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: are in the right infrastructure and for me. Jonah Coleman

448
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 2: checks a lot of those boxes, but those are the

449
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 2: top of my rankings. I think there's a lot of

450
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: directions you can go in this year, but hopefully hearing

451
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,160
Speaker 2: my logic allows you to understand and appreciate where I'm

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00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 2: coming from. If you disagree and you want to yell

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00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 2: at me about it, feel free to hit me up

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00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 2: for a mailbag episode. That's it for today's show, though,

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Speaker 2: Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get

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00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure

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00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 2: you are best searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast

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00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 2: can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and

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00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 2: on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone.

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Speaker 2: I've got the Late Round Show coming your way on

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00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: Wednesday at noon Eastern on the Late Round Fantasy Football

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00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: YouTube channel, and then there's another episode of Perspectives dropping

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Speaker 2: on Friday. I'll talk to you then,