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Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal ull.

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Speaker 2: That for me.

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Speaker 1: I'm a man, I'm for I've heard so many players say,

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Speaker 1: well I want to be happy. You want to be

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Speaker 1: happy for a day? Edo state is that? Woo woof?

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Speaker 2: And then and Tye, welcome back to the Sali verbal

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Speaker 2: Boys and girls. My name is ty Hildebrandt. That fine

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Speaker 2: gentleman over there in the heart of the Midwest is

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Speaker 2: so called monster of the podcasting Midway. Dan Rubinstein, Sir,

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Speaker 2: looking Dan today on the video how are you?

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Speaker 1: I'm fantastic, and you know we were going we had

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Speaker 1: a different concept planned for today's show and peel back

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Speaker 1: the curtain, the onions, the kimono, what have you. We

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Speaker 1: had a different concept planner than you. Noticed something that

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Speaker 1: there are some early lines. Oh yeah, right, that was it.

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Speaker 1: FanDuel Draftking, some some well placed online sportsbook had put

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Speaker 1: some lines out and at first I was a little

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Speaker 1: bit confused because it's it's May, and obviously it's early

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Speaker 1: in their early lines. But typically you're pretty conservative about

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Speaker 1: how our plan, and we plan ahead of time, and

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Speaker 1: we really approach things thoughtfully, and sometimes it just takes

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Speaker 1: time for me to get in that mode, to get

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Speaker 1: in that that wagering mode to get in that you know,

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Speaker 1: match up mode, and that's you know, we don't get

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Speaker 1: into it, and you know, previews July, August, and then

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Speaker 1: we're previewing games all year long, September, October, November, what

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Speaker 1: have you? December, and here you are with everything being

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Speaker 1: nice and peaceful in the spring and the Altar of

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Speaker 1: Dan just just slumbering beneath the ocean floor. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: just recharging after another successful year. Successful is relative, but continue,

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Speaker 1: and then you're you're bringing that that h bomb tie

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Speaker 1: to the proverbial Podzilla go Jira, you know, blame Kong,

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Speaker 1: Jurassic Park and the tea trannosaurs bets. No, that's not bad. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I do kind of like that Transor's bets. And all

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Speaker 1: of the sudden you're awakening something within the show that

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you were fully aware what the

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Speaker 1: consequences might be bringing the altar to the surface so

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Speaker 1: early on.

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Speaker 2: We have early college football lines for all thirteen weeks.

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Speaker 1: It's insane of the season.

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Speaker 2: It's not every game every week, but it's a lot

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Speaker 2: of the notable games. I made a list this morning

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Speaker 2: at about six am with all of them and I

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Speaker 2: sent it to you. Yeah, I'm in it has awakened

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Speaker 2: something on this sand as well. I have an intro

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Speaker 2: sound that's completely ridiculous that I will play momentarily. But

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Speaker 2: I am excited about this, and I'll tell you why.

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Speaker 1: In a little bit.

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Speaker 2: We're going to go through those lines and we're just

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Speaker 2: gonna call out some of them. Maybe they feel right,

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Speaker 2: maybe they feel off. Maybe we're just curious and want

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Speaker 2: to talk a little bit more amongst ourselves about them.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into that. I promise you this show, all

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Speaker 2: of our episodes driven by our good friends over at Geico.

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Speaker 2: If you like the show, do not hesitate to hit

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Speaker 2: that subscribe button. We do two public episodes a week.

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Speaker 2: We also do bonus content which you could find out

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Speaker 2: there at verballers dot com. Not only do we offer

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Speaker 2: a weekly bruin a, but we offer early access to

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Speaker 2: this episode all of our episodes. Get access to the

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Speaker 2: video versions of this episodes. Perhaps if you want to

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Speaker 2: see just how tan Dan Rubinstein actually is, you can

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Speaker 2: see that if you become a premiumberballer over averballers dot com.

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Speaker 2: We also offer access to our discord server, which I

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Speaker 2: am pleased to say has been teeming with life and

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Speaker 2: enthusiasm and.

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Speaker 1: Just good people. Man.

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Speaker 2: That's true all throughout the long cold months of this

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Speaker 2: year off season. It is May, which is why I'm

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Speaker 2: thrilled when I saw this drop of lines come out,

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Speaker 2: because it gives us content to discuss. We kicked it

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Speaker 2: around a little bit on the Discord server. That was

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Speaker 2: how I knew there was a little bit of steam

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Speaker 2: on this Yeah, that's true, and decided that we were

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Speaker 2: going to run with it, pull a bit of a

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Speaker 2: U turn and go in a different direction as per

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Speaker 2: what we had originally planned. Last but not least solid

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Speaker 2: giveaway dot Com. If you want to enter to win

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Speaker 2: a sign Frank Beemer Mini helmet, you got until the

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Speaker 2: end of the month, so like two more.

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Speaker 1: Weeks ish right at Vicinity.

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Speaker 2: A few quick and easy and free steps that you

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Speaker 2: need to file to get your name in that hat.

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Speaker 2: But as long as you do, we will pick that

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Speaker 2: winner at the end of the month.

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Speaker 1: Dan, any news bits you want to talk about General

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Speaker 1: Booty going to Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: General Booty, Yeah, that's a name.

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Speaker 1: That is a name nephew of John David is where

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Speaker 1: I think I saw correct? That is correct? Yeah, Jordan

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Speaker 1: Addison touring, calling on tour. Taking a look. I think

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Speaker 1: he posted a picture of eating some canes while in Austin.

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Speaker 1: It seems like a fun time unless you're a pit fan.

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Speaker 1: Hel to pit as always. No, I'm ready if you're

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Speaker 1: if you're springing this upon me in mid May. Tie,

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Speaker 1: I've got my hammer, I've got my screws, I've got

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Speaker 1: my mortar, I've got my grout. It's time to start building, tye,

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Speaker 1: is it not? We're already gonna start construction on this

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Speaker 1: season's betting.

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Speaker 2: Stop that music.

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Speaker 1: I've got the ability to see the future and react. Okay, okay,

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Speaker 1: that is what I do? What I what I what

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Speaker 1: I do? What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Get some intensity up in here with a little two

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Speaker 2: for the money. Friend of the show, Matthew McConaughey, the

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Speaker 2: one the always so here's a deal. This is from FanDuel.

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Speaker 2: FanDuel dropped early college football lines. As I said at

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Speaker 2: the top, weeks one, no week zero. Excuse me, that's

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Speaker 2: a two of a zero week zero. They should just

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Speaker 2: call week one. But whatever, week zero through week thirteen,

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Speaker 2: fourteen weeks of college football.

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Speaker 1: Good news.

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Speaker 2: We've got a doc here that is eight pages long.

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Speaker 2: What you and I did is we took turns going

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Speaker 2: on through highlighting the games that were of interest to us,

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Speaker 2: highlighting the ones that we liked, the ones that we

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Speaker 2: were curious about. I don't know to what end. You

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Speaker 2: went through all of these lines and took a look

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Speaker 2: just generally at the trends. Teams that Vegas in this

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Speaker 2: case Fanduels seem to like teams that they maybe didn't

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Speaker 2: like as much or surprise you how little they liked them.

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Speaker 2: I pulled out a couple trends.

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Speaker 1: Were there any things? Was there anything that jumped out

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Speaker 1: to you? The uncertainty around new teams and the variants

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Speaker 1: therein right, So there are Florida lines, there are USC

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Speaker 1: lines and Oregon lines. Obviously all of these teams are

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Speaker 1: playing in major matchups that it's going to command attention,

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Speaker 1: it's going to command dollars flowing into various sportsbooks. So

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Speaker 1: that's why they exist at this moment. So just seeing

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Speaker 1: the variance of expectations despite the opponent, right, and like

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Speaker 1: there's new coordinators, you know, has a new defensive and

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, Like who knows anything about any of these teams,

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Speaker 1: let alone what they're gonna look like? In week twelve,

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Speaker 1: and so the thing that stands out to me is

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Speaker 1: some like kind of cartoonish looking numbers later on in

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Speaker 1: the year. Obviously, Notre Dame is another team that is

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Speaker 1: going to command a lot of attention financially in the

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Speaker 1: betting markets. So it's more of just the like idea

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Speaker 1: that nobody knows anything about where these programs are going

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Speaker 1: to be, and the seductive nature of placing a bet

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Speaker 1: now on week ten or week fourteen or something wild

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Speaker 1: like that. That to me is it that, like, man,

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Speaker 1: even Texas, Texas is all over the place, like getting

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Speaker 1: road favorites against good teams, but huge dogs at home

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Speaker 1: against good like it's so fun to take a look

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Speaker 1: at this, like the literal spread, but also the spread

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Speaker 1: of numbers involved with some of these programs. It's great.

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Speaker 2: I was looking at these lines when my wonderful wife

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Speaker 2: Kate came downstairs this morning, and I was fully plugged

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Speaker 2: into this, leaning close to the monitor, looking at a

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Speaker 2: spreadsheet on one side, looking at these lines on the other.

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Speaker 2: And she looked at me and she said, you're cooking

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Speaker 2: up a little scheme over there.

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Speaker 1: Aren't you. What are you so into?

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Speaker 2: I love this? I love this to some extent, it

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Speaker 2: happens every year. This is actually, and maybe I've got

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Speaker 2: hazy history. This is about as comprehensive a set of

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Speaker 2: early lines as I can remember. I'm sure it's happened before,

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Speaker 2: but at least since I've been paying attention to it.

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Speaker 2: This is a meaty list here, and I'm really into

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Speaker 2: it because I did this a little bit last year

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Speaker 2: where I found some lines it felt like they were off,

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Speaker 2: and I decided I'm going to place some money. I

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Speaker 2: wanna see how I do, and I ended up doing

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Speaker 2: very well on those. Now, I didn't really go all

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Speaker 2: in because you're investing your money, you're locking up your money.

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Speaker 2: If you're like me, you're not really eager to tell

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Speaker 2: you don't have a whole lot of money in there

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Speaker 2: to begin with. You're not eager to tie up what

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Speaker 2: you have on a long term bet four months down

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Speaker 2: the road. But I did it a couple times last year.

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Speaker 2: I was really successful at doing it, and I'm fascinated

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Speaker 2: on so many different levels. First off, what you said

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Speaker 2: about new teams and new situations and coaches and coordinators

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Speaker 2: and players is absolutely the case. So case in Point Florida,

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Speaker 2: Florida falls into that category. To a lesser extent, you

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Speaker 2: can say Iowa State Notre Dame fall into that category.

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Speaker 2: In all of those cases, you've got teams either with

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Speaker 2: new coaches or with new starters at key positions that

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Speaker 2: nobody's really had a chance to fully suss out.

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Speaker 1: At this point.

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Speaker 2: We haven't even gotten to our previews, which we'll do

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Speaker 2: at the end of July. But to make any kind

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Speaker 2: of point spread based on the little information we have

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Speaker 2: now is almost ridiculous. Yeah, So I tend to approach

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Speaker 2: this as are these lines going to increase as a

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Speaker 2: game gets closer, or do I feel the line's going

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Speaker 2: to go down? And if I find something that I

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Speaker 2: think is particularly interesting, as I did here in Week one,

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Speaker 2: which I'll talk about, that's a game that I'm going

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Speaker 2: to throw a few shekels down on, even though it's

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Speaker 2: mid May.

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Speaker 1: Very early.

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Speaker 2: If I feel like there is potential for a line

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Speaker 2: to go hard one way or the other, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to put some money down. So it definitely seemed as

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Speaker 2: if there was a lot of uncertainty on Florida, and

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Speaker 2: for that reason, I'll probably stay away. But there were

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Speaker 2: other situations where it seems as if in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: now they were really overvaluing teams like Texas. Teams like

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Speaker 2: Texas A and m USC all missed to an extent.

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Speaker 2: Is interesting. Nebraska is very interesting, and I highlighted a

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Speaker 2: few of their games as well.

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Speaker 1: Are they getting a lot of love or a lot

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Speaker 1: of thinks?

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Speaker 2: So?

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Speaker 1: I think so, dismissiles.

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Speaker 2: And then on the flip side, I do think that Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Tennessee,

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Speaker 2: Michigan State, and Penn State are five teams right out

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Speaker 2: of the choot. That maybe Vegas again, FanDuel in this

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Speaker 2: case doesn't have a great sense for where they're at,

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Speaker 2: but definitely seemed a little less.

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Speaker 1: Bullish on them than I would expect.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I mentioned Nebraska. Let's go into week zero.

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Speaker 1: By the way, all as always all of these numbers,

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Speaker 1: the intention of all of these numbers is to seduce.

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Speaker 1: It's not saying George's sixteen ish points better than Oregon

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Speaker 1: or Ohio State's fourteen ish points better than Notre Dame.

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Speaker 2: It's ooh, that's rubbing me right where these lines will move.

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Speaker 2: These are not, of course set in stone by any stretch.

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Speaker 2: The interests for me is in looking at a point

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Speaker 2: spread and saying it's just going to move drastically in

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Speaker 2: one direction or the other. Yeah, and if I think

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Speaker 2: I've got a beat on that, then maybe let's throw

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Speaker 2: some money down. But don't get in over your skis here, because,

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Speaker 2: as you said, the product is to try and seduce.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned Nebraska. Nebraska's a nine and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorite week zero the games in Dublin, Okay against Northwestern. Yeah, Now, look,

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Speaker 2: Nebraska is one of those teams where I think they're

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Speaker 2: boom or bust this year. It's either going to go

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Speaker 2: real well and they're going to retain and re up

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Speaker 2: with Scott Frost, or it's really not and they're going

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Speaker 2: to be looking for a new coach at the end

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Speaker 2: of the year. Northwestern. We just talked about Northwestern a

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Speaker 2: week ago and how it's unclear to both of us

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Speaker 2: what they're doing to correct the situation they found themselves

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Speaker 2: in a year ago. Doesn't feel like there has been

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Speaker 2: any kind of uplifting off season message that we can

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Speaker 2: really hang our hat on. So I get the nine

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Speaker 2: and a half points, but travel across the Atlantic from

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Speaker 2: the middle of the country, new players at positions. You've

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Speaker 2: got a coach in Scott Frost, who is trying to

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Speaker 2: win to save his job. You've got a guy in

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Speaker 2: Pat Fitzgerald who look typically plays defense, didn't do that

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Speaker 2: all that well last year. Nine and a half in

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Speaker 2: that spot.

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Speaker 1: Feels like somebody really likes Nebraska.

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Speaker 2: Am I wrong about that?

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Speaker 1: You're not wrong about it. It's I think it's more

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Speaker 1: of a hedge against Northwestern and how little offense they

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Speaker 1: at times are capable of putting onto the field, And

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Speaker 1: so yeah, I don't know if it's confidence in the Huskers.

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Speaker 1: It promises for a strange game. Although there's the time

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Speaker 1: difference thing, there's the weird like players are just off

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Speaker 1: because of that kind of travel. I'm sure they're traveling

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Speaker 1: well in advance. But it does seem like as you

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Speaker 1: go through this that Nebraska is getting a certain degree

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Speaker 1: of benefit based on I guess who they've added this year,

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Speaker 1: the changes they made on the coaching staff, and the

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Speaker 1: idea that you know, there's a desperation to Scott Frost

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Speaker 1: that he's throwing the kitchen sink even more than usual,

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Speaker 1: and last year's three and nine was not indicative of

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Speaker 1: the quality of this team.

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Speaker 2: The one that got me with Nebraska was whenever they

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Speaker 2: play Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's Week three. I don't know. I'm probably screwing

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Speaker 1: that up. Yep.

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma minus four and a half on the road at

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Speaker 2: Nebraska felt very low to me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very low to me.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Oklahoma's being undervalued as well. I don't know, but

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Speaker 2: that one to be really.

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Speaker 1: Do you do you have any teams because this, I

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Speaker 1: think is the actual strategy in looking at lines this early.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any teams in your mind that are

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Speaker 1: like clearly bounce back cases from where they were last

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Speaker 1: year or clearly a free falling type scenario, because if

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Speaker 1: you look at the teams who are especially successful against

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Speaker 1: the spread in twenty twenty one, which again is just

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Speaker 1: a single sample size year or whatever, the teams that

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Speaker 1: did especially well against the spread bounce back from a

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Speaker 1: bad twenty twenty and it was weird for everybody, and

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Speaker 1: you know, had to jump up against the spread and

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Speaker 1: Vegas didn't really adjust until later on in the season,

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Speaker 1: or teams that had come into the season aka Clemson

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Speaker 1: with oh yeah, they're definitely gonna win ten eleven, twelve

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Speaker 1: regular season games comfortably, and it took some time to

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Speaker 1: correct Vegas giving Clemson so much respect with those lines

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Speaker 1: that eventually it sort of came to fruition when they

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Speaker 1: started winning more and more games later on in the season,

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Speaker 1: blowing out teams. But if there's that team in your mind,

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Speaker 1: they're like, man, this team in my mind in May

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Speaker 1: is due to fall off a cliff. Now is when

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Speaker 1: you get in on it. This is a Stockton Malone situation.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate, Alioup.

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Speaker 2: This is where I was gonna go next with this

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Speaker 2: because my Week one maybe lock of.

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Speaker 1: The year, okay, lock of the week of the year

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Speaker 1: of the year.

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Speaker 2: We've got Penn State minus three at Purdue. When I

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Speaker 2: grabbed it. Full disclosure, I did grab this when I

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Speaker 2: saw it. It was Penn State minus two and a

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Speaker 2: half on the road at Purdue.

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Speaker 1: Mm hmm.

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Speaker 2: So look, I get it. I understand that Purdue was

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Speaker 2: a fan favorite last year because of how well they

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Speaker 2: performed in some big games. I feel a lot of

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Speaker 2: that was on the strength of George carloftis no longer

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Speaker 2: there now playing for the Chiefs. Yeah, and David Bell,

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Speaker 2: they're star wide out who is also now moved on.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 2: That's not to say that Purdue has not done fairly

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Speaker 2: well on the recruiting trail with Jeff Brohm. That's not

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Speaker 2: to say that Purdue won't be a formidable opponent, but

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Speaker 2: Penn State starts a veteran quarterback, presumably now healthy in

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Speaker 2: like his eighth year in state college. He will know

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Speaker 2: that offense, he does have plenty of reinforcements out wide,

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Speaker 2: even though Johan Dotson has gone to the NFL, what

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Speaker 2: with Parker Washington, Mitchell Tinsley, other guys that are now

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Speaker 2: stepping into the fold, Nick Singleton, They've got plenty of

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Speaker 2: AMMO at the running back position as well. I feel

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Speaker 2: like that line will get better in addition to a

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Speaker 2: defense that always is pretty stout. They did lose Brent Priye,

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Speaker 2: but at the same time, there are reinforcements there as well.

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Speaker 2: They've recruited pretty well. That is a make or break

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Speaker 2: game for Penn State very early, because if you lose

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Speaker 2: that game on the road at Purdue in Week one,

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Speaker 2: there are more difficult games that are soon to follow,

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Speaker 2: notably of which is that Auburn game, which I believe

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Speaker 2: is what two weeks later, right where they're on the

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Speaker 2: road at Auburn. So I feel like there will be

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Speaker 2: a sense of urgency. There needs to be a sense

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Speaker 2: of urgency right out of the shoot for Penn State.

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Speaker 2: They're coming off of seven and six overall season a

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Speaker 2: year ago, and the schedule is not such that they

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Speaker 2: can take that perdue game off. I think they'll be

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Speaker 2: focused in that game. I think they'll be prepared. And

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Speaker 2: the fact that the line is only a field goal

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Speaker 2: that feels to me case in point like a spread

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Speaker 2: that come closer, come kickoff that pops to five, that

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Speaker 2: pops to six. As more people see that number, it's

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Speaker 2: going to continue to grow. It's already grown to three

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Speaker 2: from two and a half. So I really like that game,

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Speaker 2: which is why I put some of my own money

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Speaker 2: down on it.

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Speaker 1: Remind me again, which of these quarterbacks is better? And

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Speaker 1: playing at home they know Connell better than Shan Clifford,

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Speaker 1: and playing at home to open up the season. Yes,

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Speaker 1: this is a quick Devil's advocate. I think I think

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Speaker 1: O'Connell's better than Shan Clifford. They have ad O'Connell for

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Speaker 1: Penn State than Shaan Clifford. I kind of would. Secondly,

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Speaker 1: James Franklin Sean Clifford on the road against a decent

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Speaker 1: opponent to open the season. Are the last year Are

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Speaker 1: they decent? They produced decent, They were decent last year.

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Speaker 1: Will they be decent this year? They win a bowl

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Speaker 1: game last year? Yeah, yeah, they're decent. Just walk me

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Speaker 1: through the first like seven drives against Wisconsin last year

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Speaker 1: for Penn State. Really get your juices flowing to open

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Speaker 1: up the season. I know they won that game because

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin was a nightmare on offense for chunks of last year.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying, Penn State to open up the season

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Speaker 1: on the road, they can come out of the shoot fully,

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Speaker 1: fully flat. They could.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they will. I don't think they will.

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Speaker 2: I think there will be an urgency there. Penn State's

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Speaker 2: a really good bounce back candidate, even though lows some

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Speaker 2: faces on defense and on offense. Heard that last year too,

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Speaker 2: I get.

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Speaker 1: It, I get it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you highlighted Notre Dame at Ohio State. We had

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Speaker 2: talked about this point spread a couple months back. The

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Speaker 2: early line here is No Dame plus thirteen and a

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Speaker 2: half on the road at Ohio State in Week one.

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Speaker 2: That's a big game. That's gonna be Marcus Freeman's first

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Speaker 2: official I guess game as like head football coach or

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Speaker 2: not interim coach.

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Speaker 1: In a bowl game.

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Speaker 2: Situation like they had last season. This is his first

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Speaker 2: big regular season Week one showdown against is Alma Mater

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Speaker 2: yep in Ohio State. Ohio State. We did videos on

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Speaker 2: Ohio State. High State's loaded yep, they're loaded for bear.

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Speaker 2: Which side of this bet do you like?

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Speaker 1: If I like Ohio State? Yeah, I again, the better

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Speaker 1: quarterback is playing at home. Who would you rather have

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Speaker 1: as a defensive coordinator right now? Jim Knowles or Al

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Speaker 1: Golden had to look up the last time Al Golden

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Speaker 1: called a defense tie. It predates the solid verbal. It's

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Speaker 1: two thousand and five for your whose not saying Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame is gonna be bad. I think they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: pretty good this year. But Tyler Buckner and Al Golden

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Speaker 1: against CJ. Stroud and Jim Knowles, I'm just saying, if

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Speaker 1: the game is going to get out of hand, it's

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Speaker 1: pretty clear which direction it will go out of hand

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Speaker 1: in and so this is me zagging. That's fair when

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Speaker 1: the line says zig, saying, oh, that's such a big number.

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame has guys on defense, they return X, Y

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Speaker 1: and Z on offense. Tommy Rees decided to come back.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying, first time head coach on the road

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Speaker 1: against probably a top three team, a Heisman probably finalist,

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Speaker 1: if not favorite in CJ. Stroud with arguably the best

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Speaker 1: receiver in the country against a Notre Dame secondary that

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Speaker 1: I think was fine last year but probably wasn't amazing

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Speaker 1: and lost its best player. I'm just not there right now.

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Speaker 1: Week one with those kind of chips stacked up against

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Speaker 1: the Irish.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Also, it should be noted game against Oklahoma State

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Speaker 2: second half did not go well, so in terms of

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Speaker 2: it in audition, I don't.

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Speaker 1: Care about that. I don't care about any of that.

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Speaker 1: And even though yes, Jim Knowles got to see Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame and Tommy Reeson in the second half and shut

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Speaker 1: him down, did he coach in that game? He did?

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Speaker 1: I think he did. Yeah, So it's just another interesting

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Speaker 1: chess piece there. But yeah, I think the the initial

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Speaker 1: instinct for me was that's too many points, Come on,

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Speaker 1: it's Notre Dame. But then I started thinking about, like

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Speaker 1: that Michigan State game and like what Ohio State looks

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Speaker 1: like that, you know, the Rose Bowl against that really

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Speaker 1: strong Utah team, even though they didn't blow them out,

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Speaker 1: but what the fireworks that could be on display in

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Speaker 1: week one. Oo, man, I think I'm going that way

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Speaker 1: with the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that line will come down, so I

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Speaker 2: think I agree with you. I think if anything, it

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Speaker 2: ends up closer to seventeen by kick off. So now

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Speaker 2: would be an interesting time to get in on thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half. The one game that I did want

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Speaker 2: to mention quickly, and I want to try and get

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Speaker 2: through any of these as we can without doing an

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Speaker 2: hour and a half show. Utah at Florida to open

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Speaker 2: up the seasons a really interesting matchup on a thousand

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Speaker 2: different levels. Points spread right now Florida minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half points. And this is one of those lines

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Speaker 2: where I mentioned it on our discord serververballers dot com

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Speaker 2: for those interested, and there was a little bit of

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Speaker 2: dispute back and forth. Dispute is probably putting it too harshly,

437
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 2: but some conversation around how do we feel about any

438
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 2: of these teams? Utah definitely much more of a known

439
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 2: quantity at this point. Florida, as I mentioned at the top,

440
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 2: remains a great unknown for a variety of reasons, not

441
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 2: the least of which is new coach, new quarterback knew

442
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 2: everything well, new full time starting quarterback, full time starting

443
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 2: they were interested.

444
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: Didn't play a good amount.

445
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, But it stands to reason that Florida's got talent.

446
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,199
Speaker 2: It just needs to do a better job of organizing. Yet,

447
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 2: Billy Napier, as I pointed out time and again, he

448
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 2: got his teams up to play at Louisiana. They were

449
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: always up for a fight. They always fought the better

450
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 2: teams on their schedule. Really tough. So Week one, Utah

451
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: coming to town. You got to picture this from Utah's standpoint.

452
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: Utah beats an SEC team on the road to open

453
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 2: up the season. There're suddenly in that national conversation whether

454
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 2: it's Florida and Florida goes eight and four or not.

455
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: That's still a tough place to play. Yeah, how do

456
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 2: you feel about this game? Should Florida be favored?

457
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:07,360
Speaker 1: Yes? Why it's difficult to go on the road against

458
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: an at least pretty good team. I don't know what

459
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: I mean, games Florida is gonna win. I'm not confident

460
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 1: that much about Florida. But the idea of Florida in

461
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 1: a as a dog in this game at home to

462
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: open up the season in front of that kind of

463
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: crowd that that sort of home field advantage, the heat

464
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: that will be the literal heat coming down from the

465
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: sky in Gainesville in whatever it is late August, early September.

466
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 1: I think we're dealing with reverse altitude here that if

467
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: you're a Utah player, I do not have that sound.

468
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: I know you don't. That's okay. I think I think

469
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: we're coming down. I think this is like the Alto's Adventure,

470
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 1: just skiing down the mountain to see what's what there

471
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 1: is to find in Gainesville. I like the idea of

472
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: going with the mystery with a very strong quarterback, potentially

473
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: at home and again week one or week zero or whatever.

474
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: You can throw out. Most of what happens, the most

475
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: change happens between week one and week two, and so

476
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: there is that element of mystery about Florida. I think

477
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: Utah has the more dependable and better quarterback. I think,

478
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: indeed their younger defense is more interesting long term over

479
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 1: the course of the season. I'm a higher on Utah

480
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: than I am Florida. But in Gainesville without any tape

481
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: on this Gator team, I like Florida here. I like

482
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: how the register went up for you. That was good,

483
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 1: all right?

484
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 2: Quick here. I'll just rattle these off. TCU minus nine

485
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: and a half at Colorado, your Oregon Ducks sixteen and

486
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: a half point dog neutral sider quote unquote neutral sider

487
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 2: against Georgia LSU favor by four and a half in

488
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 2: that opening kick game that they play in New Orleans

489
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 2: over Florida State. Clemson by about three touchdowns over Georgia

490
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 2: Tech they play that one in Atlanta, yep. And BYU

491
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: favored by two and a half in the Jeff Grimes

492
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 2: bawl part duh against Baylor. Okay, Week two, each of

493
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,040
Speaker 2: us highlighted a game and we talked about Florida a

494
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: moment ago. I am very curious about Kentucky at Florida.

495
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 2: This is another one of those lines that I saw

496
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 2: and I didn't really.

497
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: Know what to make of.

498
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got folks out there. We talked to one

499
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,919
Speaker 2: of them, our new friend Nate Tice, who's all in

500
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 2: on Will levis correct. A lot of good vibes coming

501
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: from that Kentucky football program after last season. Mm hm,

502
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: Florida favored by four at home Week two against Kentucky.

503
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: Yep. I kind of like Kentucky there. That's why I

504
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 1: highlighted it. It's kind of body blow ish right away

505
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: after hitting Utah and the excitement of starting the Billy

506
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: Napier era and then the reality of playing Kentucky and

507
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 1: now I look that. The other caveat here is neither

508
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: one of us has done a deep dive on these

509
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 1: teams in preparation for the season, and things changed during

510
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: fall camp, be at injuries, transfers, whatever, But right now, situationally,

511
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 1: I unless Florida shows something crazy on defense that at

512
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 1: this point would be unexpected, and there's talent. But I

513
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 1: like Kentucky there a little bit, I think too.

514
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 2: I highlighted it in blue, which is my color, my

515
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 2: signed color for the games that I'm curious about. Yep,

516
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 2: Kentucky plus four there is interesting to me. I think

517
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 2: that line will come down too. I think that line

518
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 2: will come down. So if that's something of interest to you.

519
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: Of course, we're not going to put our professional reputation

520
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 2: at this point on any of these bets outside of

521
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 2: the Penn State Perdue.

522
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: One, which I feel very confident about. Okay, just just

523
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: it's a curiosity for me. Kentucky starts the season with

524
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: Miami of Ohio. Yeah, by the way, the week prior.

525
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 2: Okay, also to the point of body blow. Also to

526
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 2: the point of let down slash look ahead. I don't

527
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 2: know the exact circumstance, but Pitt at home week two

528
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 2: getting four points against Tennessee. This is a week after

529
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: the backyard brawl, which they play in week zero, the.

530
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 1: USC backyard brawl, right JT. Daniels against Keaton Slovas.

531
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 2: That's right? Or no, two weeks playing week zero.

532
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: Week zero, Yeah, a couple of weeks after the backyard brawl.

533
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, so to get ready for Tennessee. Tennessee minus four

534
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 2: on the road at pit. I'm not a huge proponent

535
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: of road favorites. You know that I love Tennessee in

536
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 2: that matchup because Pitt at that point, right, they've got

537
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: Keton Slovas. Sure, I think Pitt's okay, despite the fact

538
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: that Jordan Addison has garnered a lot of the headlines

539
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: here via the transfer portal and nil and all that,

540
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 2: they do have other dudes that I think they can

541
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 2: get the ball to. I just don't know a whole

542
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: lot about Pitt, and I know an awful lot about Tennessee,

543
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 2: and I feel great about Tennessee. So I highlighted that

544
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: one Tennessee minus four.

545
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: I think could be interesting. By the way, the Tennessee

546
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: team that lost maybe asterisk to your downtroden Purdue boiler

547
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: Makers in the bowl game. That's also true. Yeah, it's

548
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: also true. It doesn't have an asterisk that they won

549
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: that game. Yeah, this game doesn't excite me a terrible amount.

550
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: I think I'm more down on Pitt If you're taking

551
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 1: away Whipple, Pickett and Addison, that was my fire too,

552
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: that was my firepower and offense. There's just a lot

553
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: to be replaced, and I know there are still guys there.

554
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: Tennessee went five and eight against the spread last year,

555
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: so as fun as they were, they weren't especially dependable

556
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: in a positive direction. Vegas wise. Vegas didn't have a

557
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: real good handle on Tennessee. So I I'm just sort

558
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: of inclined if not stay away, take the home dog there.

559
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: See this this is why I disagree, because, Okay, if

560
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 2: you're gonna beat Tennessee, you gotta score.

561
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: How many points? Thirty five?

562
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 2: They're gonna score points. Tennessee's gonna score points this year. Sure,

563
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: they might not play a whole lot of defense, who knows. Yeah,

564
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 2: but you're gonna have to score thirty thirty five points

565
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 2: in order to beat them. Okay, I'm not confident picking

566
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: do that. That's my I don't know enough about pitt

567
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 2: And so if you're beating Tennessee, you're probably beating them.

568
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: A score is sort of like last year, which was

569
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 2: like forty one thirty four something in that realm, and

570
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: it was a lot on the arm m ckenny, pickett.

571
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 2: I just don't know on whom we can rely on

572
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: the pit's side right now. So I like Tennessee there.

573
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: If I'm looking ahead some of the other lines here

574
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: that I thought, you know, we'll just call them out.

575
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: Wazoo at Wisconsin, Wisconsin favored by fourteen and a half,

576
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: USC minus eleven and a half on the road at Stanford,

577
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: Alabama minus fifteen at Texas. Maybe this is one of

578
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 2: those Texas spots that you referenced earlier. We've got Iowa

579
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: minus six at home against Iowa State, and we've got

580
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: Notre Dame on the heels of that thirteen and a

581
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 2: half point dog line. Now is seventeen and a half

582
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 2: point favorite at home against Cal.

583
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: That's interesting to me. I meant nice I would take

584
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: Cal justin Wilcox, Cal teams started out I think nine

585
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: to zero in non conference play, so they start well.

586
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: Obviously they don't have the depth nor the firepower to

587
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: make it happen over the course of a PAC twelve season.

588
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: But Justin Wilcox against a Green quarterback in what we

589
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: believe to be Tyler Buckner is at least intriguing from

590
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: a confusion and turnover standpoint that Justin Wilcox, now with

591
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,719
Speaker 1: Peter Sermon as a defensive coordinator, have that reputation of

592
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: just making quarterbacks think an extra second and a half

593
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: longer than they shull bit. Yeah, it's interesting. It's the

594
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 1: whole seeing ghost thing. Ty that's it.

595
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: Week three, you highlighted Penn State minus one on the

596
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: road at Auburn.

597
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, why do you hide it again? I just am

598
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: not as high on Penn State as you are. And

599
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 1: even though Auburn has its own host of issues from

600
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: the top on down, I'm just Auburn's a tough place

601
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 1: to play. And if Auburn is not especially deep on

602
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: offense skill position wise, even though Tank Bigsby did decide

603
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: to return, and that the defensive talent level across the

604
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: board has fallen off, I just don't know what I've

605
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: seen in terms of benefit of the doubt to say

606
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 1: now Penn State should be favored against Auburn, I don't know.

607
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: I think it's just gonna be an ugly game. So again,

608
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: I'll take a home dog. Happily. It's only one point, though,

609
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: I know I hear you. I totally hear you. Point.

610
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:20,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, I get the confusion there. That's one of those lines, right,

611
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 2: stay away from Okay, So I'm not betting most of

612
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: these games. I'm definitely not betting that one. Yeah, just

613
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 2: too many variables.

614
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 1: Are there any teams that have come up a bunch

615
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: where you're like, I am in on who they are

616
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: and the lines cannot be high enough, or I am

617
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: in on the huge bounce back potential, or I am

618
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: in on fading so and so State, so and so

619
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: Tech anybody Like is there somebody where you're just like,

620
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: I'm already planting the flag now and you can say

621
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: Tied told me way back when.

622
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: I think Oklahoma is an interesting answer there, and it's

623
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: not necessarily because of any step back, but it's mostly

624
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 2: because of Perceptionklahoma lost a lot. Lincoln Riley right, their quarterback,

625
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: wide receivers, guys, transfer out, but they did do a

626
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 2: pretty good job replenishing, not just with bringing over brand

627
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: venables from Clemson, but also Dylan gab like, they've got

628
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: guys that I think will perform admirably. To see them

629
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: only a four and a half point favorite on the

630
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 2: road at Nebraska, somebody can clip this and play it

631
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: back to me later after I'm proven wrong, go for

632
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 2: it right. Just seems to me like they're being undervalued.

633
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: And so as I went through that was one trend

634
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 2: that kept popping up, like I would expect Oklahoma to

635
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 2: be favored a little bit more than this. So I

636
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 2: think I'm planting my flag there. And there are some

637
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 2: other teams that we can talk about, but I don't

638
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 2: think any quite rise to the extent of Oklahoma, which

639
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: really really had some eyebrow raising lines here. By the way,

640
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: Week three is Oklahoma minus four and a half on

641
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 2: the road at Nebraska. Two other lines this week that

642
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 2: are of interest to me, West Virginia two two and

643
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: a half at Virginia Tech. I think West Virginia could

644
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 2: be a team that takes a step forward. We talked

645
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 2: a lot about them a couple weeks back, a couple

646
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: months back, where we just weren't sure which direction the

647
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 2: program's headed. But with JT. Daniels perhaps being a more

648
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 2: capable option at quarterback and with Virginia Tech being in

649
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 2: a spot where I think they'll get better. But they're

650
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: doing this thing, and you know, we talked about this too.

651
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: They're moving guys around on defense, They're not sure where

652
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: the right positions are for people. This is really a

653
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 2: year zero type of situation for Brent Pry. I'm not

654
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: sure what version of Virginia Tech we're going to get.

655
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: So West Virginia Mine is two and a half is

656
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 2: interesting to me. I don't think interesting enough that I

657
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 2: put money on it, But that's that's a notable matchup

658
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: that I'm curious about. The one that I'm most curious

659
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: about though, in Week three is Miami on the road

660
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 2: at Texas A and M.

661
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 1: Okay.

662
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: This one is interesting to me because despite all the

663
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: good vibes around tench Texas A and M and the

664
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 2: recruiting hall that they brought in a historic recruiting hall,

665
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 2: it sometimes takes a while to organize those pieces. And

666
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 2: you got to believe if you are Mario crystal Ball

667
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 2: and the Miami Hurricanes, a game like this against Texas

668
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 2: A and M is one that you're going to have

669
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 2: circled on the calendar for months to come. They will

670
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,959
Speaker 2: be ready for this game, and I think crystal Ball

671
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 2: knows well enough from his own time in the SEC

672
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 2: that this is a game where they need to show out.

673
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: This is a game where they need to show out,

674
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: So I think they'll be ready for it. I think

675
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 2: they'll be prepared, and I do think on the A

676
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: and M side, even though I'm pretty high on the agis,

677
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,439
Speaker 2: it will take some time to assemble the pieces. I'm

678
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: not saying they lose this game. I think they'll beat Miami,

679
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 2: but right now the line I see is their favor

680
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 2: by nine. The reason I wouldn't bet on it yet

681
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 2: is because I think it's got potential to go up higher.

682
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: I think eventually, as this thing gets closer to kickoff,

683
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 2: that could end up over ten, and I will probably

684
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 2: jump up Miami in that case because it just feels

685
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: like a situation to me where Miami feels like they've

686
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: got nothing to lose, they need to show out well,

687
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: they need to perform. They've got a good quarterback, and

688
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 2: perhaps they have throwing too.

689
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 1: I'm not sure.

690
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 2: I'm sure, yeah, it doesn't have and Evan Stewart on

691
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 2: his side. But I just feel like that's a situation

692
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 2: where maybe your boy Mario plays some guerrilla ball and

693
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: keeps to score down and keeps it close and tries

694
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 2: to win with defense.

695
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: Ty, I think you're the best. I really do. I'm

696
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: fading Tie so much this year. Holy hell, you're in

697
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: on West Virginia bouncing back. You're in on like the

698
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: mines that brought you a woefully disappointing USC offense these

699
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: past three years are coming to Morgantown. That's what you're

700
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: in on. Graham Harrell and JT. Daniels with no receiving talent.

701
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm in on it, Okay, but because who's stopping

702
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 2: that talent at Virginia Tech?

703
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Brent Pry I don't know. At least there's

704
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: something new and interesting about the Virginia Tech defense. Hypothetically there.

705
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,919
Speaker 2: Were seven, but three? Can they beat them? Virginia Tech,

706
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 2: who doesn't know who's playing anywhere by three?

707
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, they can beat them there. Okay. Sure, it's a

708
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: tough state place to play, and you're dealing with mystery

709
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: a little bit. I mean, you'll have two weeks of

710
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 1: tape or whatever. It's what you said Week three, right

711
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: me three? Week three, Miami, Miami, Mario, big game, Mario

712
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: last scene against Utah losing like seventy seven to thirteen.

713
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 1: I just okay, I mean, okay. I think they're going

714
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,839
Speaker 1: to become a very talented team, and I think they're

715
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: gonna win a good chunk of games. There'll be a

716
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: threat at least to win the division more often than

717
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: not under Mario Christapal. I think they're trending in the

718
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: right place right now against Texas where that game's not Miami,

719
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: is it the Texas A and M. So you have

720
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: first year Mario against a team with offensive line issues

721
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: going up against what was a top seven twelve defense

722
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 1: nationally in Texas A and M that's only getting deeper, younger, faster,

723
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: and is more secure at quarterback. Whoever ends up being

724
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback, it's not gonna be Zach Kelsott, as

725
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: we know, has interesting skill talent, though the game changing

726
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: receiver and whoever that is is yet to be seen.

727
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: I just I think A and M's in a much

728
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 1: better spot that I'm not even saying A and M

729
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: is gonna cover this game, but to be in on

730
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: Miami this early.

731
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 2: On, I'm not in on Miami. I'm saying. Here's what I'm.

732
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 1: Saying, that there's a scratch and claw element that Mario

733
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 1: is gonna play guerrilla ball with a bad offensive line.

734
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: Is that a thing that you want to see.

735
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 2: Here's what I'm saying. Okay, I will reiterate what I

736
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 2: said already. Okay, I'm not saying A m loses this game.

737
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 2: I'm also not saying to bet this game now. I'm

738
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 2: saying I can't get that point spread. That point spread

739
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 2: is gonna go up, and as it gets closer as

740
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 2: we get to our Week three preview at some point

741
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:56,479
Speaker 2: in mid December, if it stands as is, I will

742
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 2: likely take Miami in those points.

743
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: Okay, I just want to say, as the fire hose

744
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: sometimes to cool you off as you get all hot

745
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:08,439
Speaker 1: and bothered about Miami on the road in College Station

746
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: in West Virginia at Lane Stadium, like these gigantic loud

747
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: places to play are like I'm feeling good about.

748
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 2: Is there a look ahead element for A and M

749
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 2: because in Week four they've got Arkansas in the neutral

750
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 2: site Arlington.

751
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: No, no, no, They'll take Miami very seriously. Yeah yeah, yeah,

752
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 1: all right.

753
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: Some other lines here very quickly. In Week three, Michigan

754
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 2: State minus three on the road at Washington, Oregon favored

755
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: by six and a half YEP at home against by

756
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: you all miss favored by ten at Georgia Tech. Tough

757
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,439
Speaker 2: year for Georgia Tech. A lot of tough games here.

758
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 2: They were a frequent visitor to this early lines list,

759
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 2: if only because they play so many big games.

760
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: But okay, I, by the way, early on, I would

761
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 1: not bet Oregon with if you handed me one hundred

762
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: dollars bill either way, I would not bet four or

763
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 1: against the like. I would not like I Bonix has

764
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 1: played George right if bonenicks the Brezum starter starts in

765
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 1: that game in Atlanta and start you know BYU and

766
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: whoever else. This is the most talented, arguably the most

767
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: talented Oregon team is just in terms of like twenty

768
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 1: four to seven composite ranking, the depth. You know, you

769
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: have a Dan Lanning overtaking and taking over with Tosh

770
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 1: on the defense and Matt poul Like, there's all sorts

771
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: of reasons to be very up on Oregon returning the

772
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: offensive line, the receiver room is very deep. You know,

773
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 1: they've done a lot of work on the defensive line

774
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: in the portal, but still the wild card of like

775
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: Bonix can throw you in or out of a game

776
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: at any given time. Not not me, not my money?

777
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough your money either, Okay, continue money either? Okay.

778
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's combine weeks four and five together here and

779
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 2: keep this show moving. We've got another A and M

780
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 2: game which had just referenced, a M favored by seven

781
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 2: and a half in that neutral site game in Arlington

782
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 2: against Arkansas. Clemson favored by ten on the road at

783
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: Wake and and then the following week in week five,

784
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: favored by ten at home against NC State. We've got

785
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 2: Michigan minus four at Iowa. We've got Alabama minus seventeen

786
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 2: and week five against Arkansas, which an interesting line. And

787
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 2: then we've got three games that you and I highlighted.

788
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 2: In week four, you highlighted Wisconsin at Ohio State with

789
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: the Buckeyes favored by sixteen. In week five, you highlighted

790
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 2: Utah minus three at UCLA. I think I also may

791
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 2: have highlighted that one.

792
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 1: Yeah.

793
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:36,240
Speaker 2: And then we've got West Virginia at Texas minus thirteen

794
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,879
Speaker 2: and a half. Why don't we start with that West

795
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 2: Virginia Texas game since you like to dunk on the Mountaineers.

796
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 2: Are you going Texas? Is that why you highlighted it?

797
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: I think so, yeah, and I don't love it, but

798
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: I think they're due for a randomly excellent game. And

799
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,959
Speaker 1: because I'm just not especially in on West Virginia, that's

800
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: the game that's interesting to me, that they'll be randomly

801
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,240
Speaker 1: great one week and they'll pour it on West Virginia's defense.

802
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: Last year. I mean, I have it up in front

803
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 1: of me right now. It was essentially average and you

804
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 1: can throw the ball on them, and that's all Texas

805
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 1: is basically, even despite having b John Robinson, who I

806
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: think will be a threat in the pass game. That's

807
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: what Texas should be able to do successfully this year

808
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 1: as they strengthen their offensive line. I'm still not all

809
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: that in on Texas at the moment in May, but

810
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,879
Speaker 1: just less so on West Virginia. I just don't see

811
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: away in which West Virginia is anything more than a

812
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: five hundred team this year. And so on the road,

813
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 1: with the distance between the Texas and Alabama game, yeah,

814
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: I think Texas will randomly have an outburst, even though

815
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 1: I think they lost that game last year, Right, Texas

816
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: did lose to the Ears. I think I'm in. I'm

817
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 1: in on a randomly excellent week for Texas. In that spot,

818
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 1: I highlighted the Utah Ucla game. It's at Ucla. Oooh, big, scary,

819
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: twelve thousand people, I know, right, Utah minus three? Yeah?

820
00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:00,760
Speaker 2: What am I not understanding here? Because Utah was loaded

821
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 2: on offense last year after Cam Rising got in there

822
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 2: and got comfortable, they were really good, scored a ton

823
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 2: of points on offense. M hm.

824
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 1: UCLA's defense was dreadful.

825
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 2: They were dreadful. They were a half team a year ago.

826
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 2: Is Utah only three points better than Ucla in your view?

827
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 2: Even if the game is not at Utah? Three points

828
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 2: feels real light to me?

829
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, that's almost a game that I would go

830
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,399
Speaker 1: Ucla because the line seems so screwy. It's a it's

831
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: a tricky part of Utah's schedule. If you're gonna look

832
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 1: at the context of things, I think Oregon State is

833
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 1: going to be again. They're gonna be frisky to me

834
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 1: because of their ability to run the ball, and they

835
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 1: have ASU the week before that, San Diego State the

836
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: week before that. It's also a look ahead spot with

837
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 1: SC right, So you're gonna have the Lincoln Riley against

838
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 1: Right Utah's sc the next week. You can see that.

839
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: So that's if am I not mistaken that that's the

840
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: biggest game on Utah's home schedule. I would assume. So

841
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 1: I can't imagine one that's bigger. Yeah, Organ's on the road,

842
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: Organs at Autson UH November eighteenth. So there's that look

843
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 1: ahead spot where the team that's getting all of the

844
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:11,280
Speaker 1: attention in this our mind.

845
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 2: Never mind strike that from the record, I get it.

846
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 2: We'll start just in that one.

847
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: I'm just saying we could have an undefeated Utah team

848
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: in that spot. Right, They've gone to Florida and won

849
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 1: this game, definitely within the realm of reason, and then

850
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: the whispers are like, I don't know, game day might

851
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: come to song like siting if they're undefeated against the

852
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 1: USC team and then they lose to UCLA at home

853
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 1: or you know, in the Rose Bowl. I just I

854
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: think that I think there's something interesting situationally about that.

855
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 2: Well, definitely don't bet it. Then don't bet it because

856
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:44,359
Speaker 2: that line probably jumps. Then if that's the narrative. If

857
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 2: we want to if we want to anchor ourselves to

858
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 2: that possibility, that line pops, that line's not three at kickoff, right,

859
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 2: goes up.

860
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 1: Man, keep your eyes.

861
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 2: On UCLA in that matchup because of the look ahead potential.

862
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 2: The other one I wanted to call out briefly is

863
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: Wisconsin at Ohio State. This is actually back in Week four.

864
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 2: I know we're jumping around a little bit here. Yeah,

865
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 2: Ohio State favored by sixteen points. This is a recurring

866
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 2: trend with Wisconsin. I mentioned that earlier. Wisconsin feels like

867
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: they're not getting enough love. I kind of get it.

868
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 2: I obviously get it to see that Ohio State's favored

869
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 2: by a healthy margin against pretty much any team on

870
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 2: the schedule. Right, they're gonna be loaded. Yep, They're absolutely

871
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 2: gonna be loaded, and Wisconsin look. Questions on offense, Questions

872
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 2: on offense persist. Graham Mertz has never again lived up

873
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 2: to what he did the very first game that he

874
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 2: played against Illinois, and just we haven't seen that version

875
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: of him all that frequently. You gotta like the running game.

876
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 2: You always like the running game at Wisconsin. But the

877
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 2: question is do they have enough firepower to hang with

878
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 2: Ohio State. Will they be good enough on defense to

879
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 2: tame that offense and keep this one within that margin?

880
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 1: Right?

881
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 2: Again, I don't think i'd want to bet that line,

882
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 2: but I think it's worth calling out that it's sixteen

883
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: and probably going up before kickoff.

884
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:03,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I don't know what you're getting from

885
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 1: this Wisconsin offense. Every year, it's the same thing in

886
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 1: the off season, we're like, okay, so we know that

887
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 1: they need a receiver and this guy is a converted

888
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 1: javelin thrower. Hear me out, And it's always some deep

889
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: sleeper who's going to emerge as like the big play

890
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: threat on the outside. You know, occasionally it happens. You know,

891
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: Quintez CFS was very good. But that that's the concern

892
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 1: to me. It's the same line of thinking that you

893
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 1: have about Tennessee and Pitt. We're like, how many points

894
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: do you need to score to beat Ohio State? And

895
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: how is how is Wisconsin scoring more than seventeen? Like

896
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 1: that's the issue when you look at this game, especially

897
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: as we I think we both agree that Ohio State's

898
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 1: defense is going to be considerably improved that like we've

899
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 1: seen the Graham Artz show. Yeah, what is different this year?

900
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,359
Speaker 1: There's a potentially new back who's gonna pop full time

901
00:45:55,360 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 1: in Brayleen Allen. Okay, what's different? And that's why I'm

902
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: not as high on Penn State as you are. Where

903
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: two years ago Penn State fans were all amongst theirselves

904
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 1: saying John Lever should be back, and then he played

905
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,280
Speaker 1: another season, and now he's about to play another season

906
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: and he's still John Clifford.

907
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 2: I said before, he's so old, he's got his own

908
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 2: business now, right.

909
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 1: I just like Owle State. I just do Yeah.

910
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's move over to week six and week seven.

911
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 2: In week six, we've got the Red River Shootout basically

912
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 2: pick them between Texas and Oklahoma. Yep, Notre Dame minus

913
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:35,760
Speaker 2: seven and a half against BYU.

914
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 1: They play that one in Vegas.

915
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 2: Also in week six, two games that we highlighted, the

916
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 2: A and m Bama game Bama right now favored by sixteen.

917
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 2: We can talk about that in more detail, and then

918
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 2: the aforementioned USC against Utah USC right now favored by

919
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 2: one per this early line against Utah and quickly. In

920
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 2: week seven, we also have the LSU Florida matchup, which

921
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: is interesting. That's interesting.

922
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 1: Think if nothing more, Florida right now favored by a

923
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: field goal.

924
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 2: We got Penn State and Michigan, Michigan favored by about

925
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 2: a touchdown, Stanford Notre Dame. Notre Dame a healthy favorite there.

926
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 2: And then another one with Texas favored by one point

927
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 2: on the road at Oklahoma State. And another Bama game

928
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 2: where they're favored by sixteen and a half against Tennessee.

929
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 2: So one of the trends here that you saw this

930
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 2: past season that you're going to see. I think again,

931
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 2: if these lines are any indication, you see a definite

932
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 2: trend where Alabama and Georgia and maybe this year Ohio

933
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,800
Speaker 2: State pretty much every game favored by at least seventeen points.

934
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: That's just sort of the way the way it goes down.

935
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 1: But let's go back.

936
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:42,359
Speaker 2: Let's talk about that Bama Texas A and M game.

937
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 2: Sure and M last year the Calzada Armada knocked off Alabama.

938
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 2: You could argue on the power as we have the

939
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:55,919
Speaker 2: power of that win alone. Zach Calzada secures a move

940
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: over to Auburn, He's going to be the presumed starting

941
00:47:58,160 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 2: quarterback there.

942
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 1: Now, look, I don't think he's all that good. Okay,

943
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 1: is he though? I don't even know if he's gonna

944
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 1: win that job, but continue, Yeah, I don't know.

945
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 2: I don't think he's all that good. I'm gonna presume

946
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 2: at this point that you know, kel Zada might be

947
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 2: the guy for Auburn, right, But so A and M's

948
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 2: coming at this from a different perspective. They're gonna have

949
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: a new quarterback, and presumably that's Max Johnson who comes

950
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 2: over from LSU. A lot of good steam, a lot

951
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 2: of good vibrations on Texas A and M right now,

952
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 2: but they do have to go to Tuscaloosa. They do

953
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 2: have to knock off the Crimson tide. Sixteen points is

954
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 2: a lot. Alabama's not without their own questions. But I mean,

955
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 2: would you go A and M here based on this

956
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 2: high of a number, knowing the talent that is coming

957
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:47,760
Speaker 2: to college station?

958
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: No, I don't think. I mean, look, it's what would

959
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: you say? It was about sixteen pointeen sixteen, but it's

960
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 1: in Tuscaloosa. Yeah, that's why you mentioned Max Johnson. I

961
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 1: don't love Max Johnson. I don't know that he's the

962
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 1: presumed starter. Haines King was named the starter last year.

963
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 1: Jimbo liked him enough last year to have him lead

964
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 1: the way. I assume Max Johnson's at least going to

965
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 1: get time early on in the season, and this could

966
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: be a time where because what A and M before

967
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 1: this point has both Arkansas and Miami. So it's like

968
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: Max Johnson's the starter, but Haines King's going to see

969
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 1: him time kind of thing.

970
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:29,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've got a Cayn's King package, right, And so

971
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 2: this is when you have to start thinking of the

972
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: different possibilities at quarterback because Texas A and M is

973
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:36,919
Speaker 2: going to be a successful team this year.

974
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 1: But if you're saying Alabama at minus sixteen, you're talking

975
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 1: about the firepower coming in of Jermaine Burton and Jamier

976
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: Gibbs working out, which we have no reason to presume

977
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: it won't. The offensive line should still be good, the

978
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 1: defense should still be excellent, and the question remains if

979
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 1: you're talking sixteen points, so you're saying, how does A

980
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 1: and M keep it within fourteen? There has to be

981
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 1: some firepower emerging. We know about you know, A Smith,

982
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 1: We know about guys on this team that are good,

983
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 1: but it's that deep threat to sort of scare Alabama

984
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: into playing more conservatively on defense. I wouldn't touch this game. No,

985
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,760
Speaker 1: I wouldn't touch this game. With how quickly Alabama can

986
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 1: and will score and now that they have, I don't

987
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 1: think Jamiir Gibbs is all that different or better to me.

988
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,720
Speaker 1: I just think he's excellent than something you like. Najie

989
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 1: Harris was excellent, he was an all purpose, he was ridiculous.

990
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,240
Speaker 1: I just think the home run threat at this point

991
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: is going to scare more teams into keeping eyes on

992
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 1: the Alabama backfield than they have with some other guys recently. So, No,

993
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 1: this line feels about right. It doesn't push me in

994
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 1: any direction.

995
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 2: One thing that we see here. On back to back weeks,

996
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 2: We've got Texas against the State of Oklahoma. Week six,

997
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 2: Red River Shootout, Texas favored by one, basically a pickham.

998
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: Week seven on the road in Stillwater against Oklahoma State,

999
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 2: Texas also favored by one. You highlighted that game.

1000
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're you're the pokes here. Yeah, well here here's why.

1001
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 1: So if Texas is great, if Texas and quin yours

1002
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 1: is everything, or I don't know if it's Hudson card

1003
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 1: whoever it is. But if if the Texas offense continues

1004
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 1: to step forward. Who's your guy that you like or

1005
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 1: not NI or Isaiah and I or yeah? If he

1006
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: provides to be, If he provides that that second option

1007
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 1: next to Xavier Worthy, if be John Robinson is healthy

1008
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:28,000
Speaker 1: and pops, I think Texas loses his game. Right. It's

1009
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 1: just a difficult to go to Boone Pickens and presumably

1010
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a night game. If Texas is excellent

1011
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 1: in this kind of headline matchup, I think that's where

1012
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 1: an excellent Texas team will go to.

1013
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 2: Duh.

1014
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 1: And if Oklahoma State is really good and Texas is

1015
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: sort of up and down, you're getting Oklahoma State as

1016
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: a home dog here, and granted they lose whatever it

1017
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 1: is seven full time starters from last year's defense that

1018
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 1: was all everything. I don't love Spencer Sanders, but I

1019
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 1: think he can be randomly excellent for half he can

1020
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 1: be like we've seen that. So I like the either

1021
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: or of Texas being really good or Texas being merely

1022
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:07,440
Speaker 1: okay and still Water being a very difficult place to

1023
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 1: win a game as a road favorite.

1024
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: The only other game here between these two weeks that

1025
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,399
Speaker 2: I highlighted was the usc Utah game, and we talked

1026
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 2: a little bit about this. Yeah, I have USC down

1027
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 2: in my on my list of teams being overvalued. Sure,

1028
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 2: and you know, it may not necessarily be because Vegas

1029
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 2: or the fine folks at FanDuel that made these lines.

1030
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 2: It could just be because they feel they need to

1031
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 2: protect themselves a little bit. USC is going to be

1032
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 2: a heavily bet team this coming season. They're going to

1033
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 2: be a heavily bet team this season because of all

1034
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 2: the offseason news stories. So generally you will see that

1035
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 2: influence the lines one way or the other. And this

1036
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: could be one of those circumstances where they're favored even

1037
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 2: though Utah might be the better team. Utah was the

1038
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 2: better team a year ago. Uh, it could just be

1039
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 2: because there's been a lot of activity in the USC direction.

1040
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,800
Speaker 2: I don't know, but that's you know, I'm not picking

1041
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 2: that at this stage of the game. I'm just saying

1042
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 2: that's that's something to keep your eyes on.

1043
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:14,240
Speaker 1: I think the potential of Caleb Williams is sky high.

1044
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 1: But I think the potential of Caleb Williams offering up

1045
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: random turd weeks also exists like it did last year.

1046
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:24,839
Speaker 1: Granted just a freshman, but man to go to altitude

1047
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: rice Ecles. Maybe it's too personal for me after seeing

1048
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: the you two just demolish close to un I'm too close,

1049
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: h my beloved Oregon Ducks Limb from Limb. But that

1050
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 1: place gets electric for some of these games, and I

1051
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,799
Speaker 1: just think there's there's a chip on Utah's shoulder with

1052
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: the entire offseason being about USC in that division and

1053
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 1: not the defending champ. A man, I just I don't

1054
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 1: see it. So I love Utah here in this spot.

1055
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 1: All right.

1056
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 2: Week eight, Week nine, let's go through these quickly. Let's

1057
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: LSU favored by three over Ole Miss Okay, Minnesota nine

1058
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 2: point dog on the road at Penn State Okay, Ohio

1059
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 2: State three scores over Iowa Okay yep. As we get

1060
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: into week nine, I think we've got a little bit

1061
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 2: more intrigue in some of these matchups. One that you

1062
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 2: highlighted that I do want to talk about. But elsewhere,

1063
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 2: Texas A and M favored by nine over Florida. Again,

1064
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 2: I don't think they have a good sense for Florida.

1065
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 1: Yep.

1066
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 2: North Carolina favored over pitt Michigan by ten over Michigan State.

1067
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 1: Okay. Interesting. Georgia seventeen over Florida. Yep.

1068
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 2: I think maybe they got some of their Florida games

1069
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 2: here mixed up, and I'm mislabeling what weeks they occur in.

1070
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 2: But nonetheless, there is a Florida Georgia game in week nine.

1071
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: By the way, Georgia an amazing team to plant a

1072
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: flag against. To fade not winning games. I think they'll

1073
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 1: win a bunch of games. But judging by the number

1074
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: of guys drafted off of this defense events and losing

1075
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 1: the running backs and losing Jermaine Burton, I love the

1076
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: tight end room. I love that Stetson Bennett's back, but

1077
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 1: it feels more like, oh, they won twenty eight to seventeen,

1078
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,759
Speaker 1: they didn't win thirty four to seven kind of year

1079
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 1: that they're going to take a step back in terms

1080
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 1: of the dominance factor, and so that I think is

1081
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:24,839
Speaker 1: going to be reflective in these lines. So, yes, fade

1082
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 1: Bonnicks by all account, that's fine. I get that, But

1083
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: in some of these matchups, especially later on in the year,

1084
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 1: I think you could get good value now if you

1085
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 1: feel like Georgia is merely going to be very very

1086
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 1: good in not all everything.

1087
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 2: So the Florida A and M game is actually in

1088
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:46,360
Speaker 2: Week ten that was mistakes. Okay, but you highlighted Ohio

1089
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 2: State minus thirteen at Penn State.

1090
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1091
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 2: My hunch is based on what you said earlier about

1092
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 2: Ohio State and Penn State that you're all in on

1093
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 2: the Buckeyes here.

1094
00:55:56,160 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 1: Nope. Really the same reason why I think that going

1095
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 1: up against Texas for Oklahoma State is a nice play Situationally,

1096
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 1: Penn State has always and look, it's various defensive and

1097
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 1: offensive coordinators, and I like Manny Diaz, and I like

1098
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: the creativity and whatever. I just think it's gonna be

1099
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 1: closer than that. I think it's just it's gonna be

1100
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:20,279
Speaker 1: a whiteout game. We assume week nine. Even if Penn

1101
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 1: State seven and two, six and three are I guess

1102
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:24,319
Speaker 1: that's not gonna happen going into week nine. But you know,

1103
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 1: even if they're a one to two lost team, I

1104
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 1: think they're gonna feel a very good defense. I think

1105
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: the electricity of that crowd it was arguable. I think

1106
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:35,920
Speaker 1: Penn State will be improved this year. And this was

1107
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 1: not an especially good Penn State team last year, especially

1108
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 1: at closing out close ish games, and they still kept

1109
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:45,319
Speaker 1: it pretty close against Ohio State last year so I

1110
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 1: just think it's I think, situationally to be a double

1111
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: digit dog at home in a whiteout. I think it's

1112
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 1: too much.

1113
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 2: That line probably goes down as the game gets closer. Yeah,

1114
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 2: so you see it at thirteen if you like Penn State,

1115
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 2: could be an interesting time to jump in on that.

1116
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 1: Now, you told me that I could bet on the

1117
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:09,759
Speaker 1: potential of Penn State being up three in the third

1118
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:11,800
Speaker 1: quarter and losing by ten to twelve.

1119
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:13,919
Speaker 2: You can't bet by that. You can't do an game

1120
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 2: all over that live. You can't do a live in game.

1121
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: So I'm saying very specifically, now, if you gave me

1122
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: like plus odds that Penn State would blow a second

1123
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 1: half lead to Ohio State, I would take it.

1124
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's move quickly through weeks ten, eleven, twelve,

1125
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 2: and thirteen. Let's week ten. You highlighted Clemson minus three

1126
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 2: at Notre Dame. You like Clemson here, don't you?

1127
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,480
Speaker 1: I do? Yeah? Yeah.

1128
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 2: You also highlighted Colorado at usc US he favored by

1129
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 2: twenty one.

1130
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 1: I think Notre Dame has a really interesting especially given

1131
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 1: maybe it's just the karmic off season of saying, like, oh,

1132
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: Marcus Freeman, it's a new era, bringing that youth, bringing

1133
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 1: that energy. Notre Dame is gonna poll players that are

1134
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 1: going to put them over the top. I think we

1135
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 1: might have a moment collectively as a college football universe

1136
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 1: where we're going to have to say so, it turns

1137
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 1: out Brian Kelly was a really good coach. And as

1138
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 1: much as you're gritting your teeth as I say that,

1139
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 1: because of the manner in which he left and the

1140
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 1: way in which Notre Dame hit their ceiling, it seemed

1141
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 1: at times, I think it's very a good amount of

1142
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 1: potential where we're like, oh so, replacing a proven, long

1143
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 1: term ten plus win coach with a first year guy

1144
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 1: who's thirty four whatever. It's going to take some time,

1145
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 1: he's going to take some lumps, And it turns out

1146
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 1: Brian Kelly was pretty good at coaching college football. I

1147
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 1: think there's high potential for that. And so when I

1148
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 1: see a line like this with where I expect Clemson's

1149
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 1: defense to be, yeah, I'm okay with it. I'm okay

1150
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 1: with riding with the U. And look, there's me a

1151
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 1: lot of emotion in this game, a lot of the

1152
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 1: same reasons why I'm going with home dogs. Other places.

1153
00:58:56,160 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: I just think, situationally Notre Dame, there might be that

1154
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: moment where Notre Dame fans, either out loud or within

1155
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 1: their own head or within their cribbage groups or whatever,

1156
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 1: are going to say Brian Gellow was pretty good.

1157
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of potential on this list

1158
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:15,600
Speaker 2: for Clemson. You if you are a Clemson believer, you've

1159
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 2: got options here. You've got options in week one favored

1160
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 2: by three touchdowns against Georgia Tech. Neither you nor I

1161
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 2: like Georgia Tech all that much. You've also got options

1162
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 2: on back to back weeks in four and five where

1163
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 2: they're favored by ten on the road at Wake Yeah,

1164
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 2: or NC State, I guess is more of a revenge

1165
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 2: spot at home favored by ten. Like, there are situations

1166
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 2: here if you are a Clemson believer where you could

1167
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 2: potentially lock in on a better line now then come kickoff.

1168
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 2: And I think this Clemson Notre Dame game is probably

1169
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:47,800
Speaker 2: a very good example of that.

1170
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 1: It depends how good kid Klubnick is going to be. Right,

1171
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 1: we're in the club level here where you've planned the flag.

1172
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:54,160
Speaker 1: I get that.

1173
00:59:54,680 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 2: I'm ready, So I kind of like that pick as well.

1174
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 2: Clemson Monastery. I wouldn't want to go Notre Dame. I

1175
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:02,960
Speaker 2: also feel like there are again I keep saying good

1176
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 2: vibes and I mean that around Notre Dame and Marcus

1177
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 2: Freeman in new era, new blood running the program like

1178
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 2: it's all very exciting. There are a lot of questions, though,

1179
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 2: not the least of which is what are we getting

1180
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:18,439
Speaker 2: with Tyler Buckner? Because we saw him run a couple

1181
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 2: times last year and that was fun, but we didn't

1182
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 2: get to see a whole lot of him to really

1183
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 2: have any idea.

1184
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 1: For what to expect this coming season.

1185
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 2: It's going to be his team. It's not going to

1186
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 2: be Drew Pine. It's going to be Tyler Buckner, provided

1187
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 2: he's healthy, and we just I don't. I don't know

1188
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 2: what to expect. Everybody likes what they saw from him

1189
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 2: in the spring, but it's a great unknown.

1190
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 1: Okay. I highlighted Florida State against Miami here.

1191
01:00:41,200 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm inclining to go FSU. FSU getting nine and

1192
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:47,440
Speaker 2: a half points. Florida State is going to be a

1193
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: team that haunts me all season long because I can't

1194
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 2: make up my mind how I feel about that. Let's

1195
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 2: be clear. On a podcast what a week ago it said, Ah,

1196
01:00:57,320 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 2: they got to do better than Jordan Travis. But then

1197
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 2: everybody's telling me, ah, the numbers on Jordan Travis sorr, Yeah,

1198
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:05,360
Speaker 2: they're not bad. You should pay maybe you should pay

1199
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 2: more attention to the numbers on Jordan Travis. And so

1200
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 2: then I talk myself into that corner. I look at

1201
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:16,080
Speaker 2: his advanced numbers, and you're right, the numbers aren't bad.

1202
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 2: And so I stand firmly on this pedestal of I

1203
01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 2: have no idea what to expect that out of Jordan

1204
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 2: Travis and Florida State. I hope they're better this coming

1205
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:29,040
Speaker 2: season than they were a year ago, and they started

1206
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 2: out zero to four. And clearly this game against Miami

1207
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 2: is going to be a pretty big deal, not just

1208
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,040
Speaker 2: because it's Miami and it's a traditional rival, but also

1209
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 2: because there's I think a lot of recruiting.

1210
01:01:38,320 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 1: Hay to be made on this matchup.

1211
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 2: Now, of course, I mean there always is, there always is,

1212
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 2: but it's at such a pivotal time for both of

1213
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 2: these programs, especially come week ten of the season. Especially

1214
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 2: come week ten of the season. Yeah, Miami nine and

1215
01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:54,680
Speaker 2: a half points, the favorite at home. I feel like

1216
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 2: this one's closed. This is usually a close game, or

1217
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 2: at least has been historically, So I would go Florida

1218
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 2: State postal points.

1219
01:02:00,720 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, we don't know how many recruits will be on

1220
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 1: hand to choose an HBCU over Florida State this year

1221
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:08,960
Speaker 1: for a matchup this pig. We don't even know. We

1222
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 1: don't know that number. The other issue with Jordan Travis

1223
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 1: is just availability randomly. I don't you know, is he

1224
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 1: gonna miss two three games this year? He just gets

1225
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 1: beat up. He takes hits, especially be on that line,

1226
01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: especially the athletic brand of football that he plays. Yeah,

1227
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:31,000
Speaker 1: this is it's a it's a revenge spot. I don't know.

1228
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:33,600
Speaker 1: There's a lot going on in this game. So yeah,

1229
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:35,520
Speaker 1: this one didn't really interest me because I think this

1230
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 1: has wide swings coming in terms of this number. Otherwise,

1231
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:44,120
Speaker 1: by the way I mentioned USC Colorado, I think USC

1232
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:46,840
Speaker 1: might just blow the doors off Colorado. And I don't

1233
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: think it matters how good you with USC's defense is

1234
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 1: in this game is going to be that bad A

1235
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 1: straight track, all right? They just got so Colorado got Pilford.

1236
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:56,680
Speaker 1: They had good players on defense who like basically all

1237
01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:59,040
Speaker 1: left Like there's just it's fallen.

1238
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 2: Apart quickly in Boulder, all right, Florida at A and

1239
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 2: M A and M favored by nine. We've got Bama

1240
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:09,200
Speaker 2: by sixteen. Wow, on the road at LSU. That could

1241
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 2: be one to keep your eyes on. Sure, that line

1242
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:13,800
Speaker 2: I could see coming down. So if you like LSU,

1243
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:17,520
Speaker 2: which I would not advise anyone liking LSU in that matchup,

1244
01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:19,680
Speaker 2: but if you like him, I could see that line

1245
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:21,640
Speaker 2: maybe getting a little bit tighter around kickoff.

1246
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 1: I like the de coordinator that Brian Kelly hired, I

1247
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:25,439
Speaker 1: think away from the Chiefs, but he was with Mark

1248
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 1: Soops in Kentucky before that. Yeah, I like him.

1249
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,800
Speaker 2: If LSU look strong to the first couple weeks of

1250
01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 2: the year, you could see a future in which that

1251
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 2: line comes down a little bit lower.

1252
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 1: Sure.

1253
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 2: Georgia favored by seventeen over Tennessee's prize prize, seventeen's magic number.

1254
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:44,880
Speaker 2: Let's go to week eleven, YEP Oregon by nine over Washington.

1255
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 2: Michigan eleven and a half over Nebraska. Arkansas favored by

1256
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 2: a field goal over LSU. Oklahoma favored by five and

1257
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 2: a half in the Bedlam Game. The two that we

1258
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:59,479
Speaker 2: highlighted here were Wisconsin minus two at Iowa and Utah

1259
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 2: minus four king against Stanford. I think you highlighted the

1260
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:02,960
Speaker 2: Utah game.

1261
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 1: What do you like there? Utah? I like Utah good amount.

1262
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 2: No bounce back for Stanford this year.

1263
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:12,320
Speaker 1: I think Tanner McKee is pretty good, but I just

1264
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 1: think the defense has next to nothing, and in terms

1265
01:04:16,160 --> 01:04:18,320
Speaker 1: of firepower, I don't really like Stanford's talent there, so

1266
01:04:18,320 --> 01:04:20,760
Speaker 1: you gotta score points and going to altitude going against

1267
01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:23,840
Speaker 1: the defending champ. I like the utes. And by the way,

1268
01:04:24,320 --> 01:04:26,960
Speaker 1: I think I love Wisconsin in that game against Iowa.

1269
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's why I highlighted it. I think I

1270
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 1: do too.

1271
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 2: Here's the rationale behind it. Wisconsin favored by two on

1272
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 2: the road at Iowa.

1273
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:35,000
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.

1274
01:04:37,080 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 2: There are games that are decided by one point. There

1275
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 2: are games that are decided by two. I don't have

1276
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:43,560
Speaker 2: the numbers in front of me. I feel like more

1277
01:04:43,560 --> 01:04:47,880
Speaker 2: decided by three or more could just be bad logic.

1278
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:50,360
Speaker 2: But whenever I see two points, it's like, well, why

1279
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 2: not three?

1280
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 1: Close enough?

1281
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 2: My sense is that if you like Wisconsin to win

1282
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:58,919
Speaker 2: that game, you should just take Wisconsin because the line

1283
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 2: is so low. I don't know what to expect that

1284
01:05:01,400 --> 01:05:06,400
Speaker 2: of Iowa's offense, Brian Farren's now getting more control. Okay, great,

1285
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:11,360
Speaker 2: I don't like that situation. I still like Wisconsin's defense,

1286
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:14,200
Speaker 2: I still like their running game. It might be ugly,

1287
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 2: But if I like Wisconsin to win, then in theory

1288
01:05:18,080 --> 01:05:19,880
Speaker 2: I should like them minus the two, and I think

1289
01:05:19,880 --> 01:05:20,120
Speaker 2: I do.

1290
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. Also, the teams, the good teams, if we assume

1291
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:25,959
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's going to be good, perhaps not great, the good

1292
01:05:26,000 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 1: teams that go to Iowa or that try to challenge

1293
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 1: Iowa and end up losing or losing demonstrably are the

1294
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 1: ones that are looking to challenge them downfield, which I

1295
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:37,280
Speaker 1: don't think that. I mean, that's just not what Wisconsin's

1296
01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 1: I don't look. Maybe Bobby Ingram is going to completely

1297
01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 1: convince Paul Chris to abandon everything he's done for the

1298
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 1: past decade plus. Maybe, but I think it's just going

1299
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:46,280
Speaker 1: to be tweaks. I think it's just going to be

1300
01:05:46,360 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 1: changes on the margins. So I don't think Wisconsin is

1301
01:05:48,720 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 1: going to really try and push the Iowa secondary and

1302
01:05:51,920 --> 01:05:55,480
Speaker 1: sort of throw into that aggressive zone. So no, I'm

1303
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 1: with Wisconsin winning much in the way that they won

1304
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:01,400
Speaker 1: last year, which is being a better version all around.

1305
01:06:01,440 --> 01:06:04,000
Speaker 1: In Iowa. Now, I know Wisconsin lost what they lost

1306
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 1: last year, especially in the linebacking corps. That's significant, It

1307
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 1: absolutely is significant. But they also have earned the benefit

1308
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:12,200
Speaker 1: of the doubt in terms of what they've been able

1309
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:17,080
Speaker 1: to develop internally that what's changed with Iowa. Are we

1310
01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 1: still talking about Spencer Petris and Alex Padilla? We are? Are

1311
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:22,560
Speaker 1: we still talking about Brian farrens now assuming even more

1312
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 1: power and more control we are and exerting more will

1313
01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 1: over this offense. I'm happy to take Wisconsin even though

1314
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:32,680
Speaker 1: it's a tough spot to win. It's a tough spot

1315
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 1: to play. I mean, just it is. Iowa City just

1316
01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 1: is a very They just win games with help being

1317
01:06:37,520 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 1: good on offense. So I'm still gonna roll with Wisconsin

1318
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:43,960
Speaker 1: being the right type of team to beat Iowa on

1319
01:06:44,000 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 1: the road.

1320
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:46,480
Speaker 2: I actually might have to throw some shekels down after

1321
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 2: we hit it. Oh man, I convinced you, yeah, yeah,

1322
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 2: because the other thing about Iowa that you didn't mention

1323
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:53,880
Speaker 2: is that their line was not that good last year, right,

1324
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 2: And typically the Iowa teams that do well, that win

1325
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 2: double digit games are actually as good as their record

1326
01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:04,480
Speaker 2: would indicate, which I could argue is not the case

1327
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:07,959
Speaker 2: last year. They're better along the line, they're better running

1328
01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:10,280
Speaker 2: the football, and they haven't been good at doing that,

1329
01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 2: and longer than a while since they've run the ball

1330
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:14,920
Speaker 2: consistently in a hot minute, hasn't it?

1331
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 1: Yeah? All right?

1332
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:22,080
Speaker 2: Week twelve, Georgia by sixteen seventeen over Kentucky. Wisconsin by

1333
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 2: three on the road at Nebraska.

1334
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 1: Again, I think was Nebraska getting a little bit more

1335
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 1: love than they should be. Okay, but that also you

1336
01:07:28,360 --> 01:07:31,080
Speaker 1: said this is the following week, right, this week twelve? Yeah,

1337
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 1: so this is a week after Wisconsin is on the

1338
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:37,320
Speaker 1: road against iowather on a road once again at Nebraska. Yeah,

1339
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 1: that might be a little bit fady for that back

1340
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:39,959
Speaker 1: to back.

1341
01:07:40,680 --> 01:07:43,520
Speaker 2: Miami a seven and a half point dog at Clemson.

1342
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 2: We've got USC minus six at UCLA. Okay, And the

1343
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 2: game that you highlighted, No, I highlighted this one. I'm

1344
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:54,240
Speaker 2: losing my own colors here. Yeah, Oregon minus three at

1345
01:07:54,240 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 2: home against Utah. My inclination was to say that Utah

1346
01:07:58,560 --> 01:08:02,400
Speaker 2: is the better team and Oregon's only favored because they're

1347
01:08:02,440 --> 01:08:04,680
Speaker 2: at home, or in this case, because there's gonna be

1348
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:09,160
Speaker 2: more steam on Oregon more interest. Explain that line to me,

1349
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:09,920
Speaker 2: Does it.

1350
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 1: Make sense to you that Oregon's favored by three? Yeah,

1351
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:15,760
Speaker 1: I think Oregon's gonna be a good team this year,

1352
01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:17,920
Speaker 1: and they're playing at home in a very difficult place

1353
01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:21,080
Speaker 1: to win, and it's a double revenge spot based on

1354
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:25,240
Speaker 1: how the season ended, and Oregon's head coach presumably isn't

1355
01:08:25,560 --> 01:08:28,519
Speaker 1: hasn't already started recruiting for his next place, which is

1356
01:08:28,600 --> 01:08:31,920
Speaker 1: just an unfounded accusation I just made. But Mario Christobal's

1357
01:08:31,960 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 1: head was in figuring out what he was gonna do,

1358
01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:35,960
Speaker 1: whether or not to take the Miami job or not.

1359
01:08:36,400 --> 01:08:40,840
Speaker 1: So I think just Oregon's defense is gonna be good.

1360
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:43,439
Speaker 1: It's a good defense against and I think it'll be

1361
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:45,280
Speaker 1: a better defense than it was last year, even without

1362
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 1: Kavon Thibodau and Veron McKinley, and you know, they lost

1363
01:08:47,680 --> 01:08:49,479
Speaker 1: a bunch of players. I think by this time, though,

1364
01:08:50,000 --> 01:08:52,080
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be better. I do. I really am

1365
01:08:52,080 --> 01:08:55,400
Speaker 1: a believer in this defense, a healthy justin flow, a

1366
01:08:55,400 --> 01:08:58,280
Speaker 1: secondary that has you know, they've hit the transfer portal

1367
01:08:58,320 --> 01:08:59,840
Speaker 1: pretty hard. I mean the defense in general. So I

1368
01:08:59,840 --> 01:09:01,280
Speaker 1: think they're going to be pretty deep and they're going

1369
01:09:01,320 --> 01:09:03,400
Speaker 1: to rotate guys in and out. I think they'll have

1370
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 1: a handle on the quarterback situation, he said famously in

1371
01:09:06,320 --> 01:09:09,840
Speaker 1: May by the time this game is played. I think

1372
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 1: as is just a very difficult place to win, no

1373
01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:15,280
Speaker 1: matter how good you are. And so I'm in on

1374
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:18,160
Speaker 1: Oregon as being a rightful field goal favorite here.

1375
01:09:18,479 --> 01:09:20,040
Speaker 2: I don't have a lean there.

1376
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:21,800
Speaker 1: I was just curious perspective.

1377
01:09:22,120 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 2: Let's go to a week thirteen. I'm not going to

1378
01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 2: rattle through all of these games because there are a bunch.

1379
01:09:26,720 --> 01:09:29,679
Speaker 2: Is a rivalry week, yeah, this is rivalry week. Each

1380
01:09:29,720 --> 01:09:33,559
Speaker 2: of us highlighted a couple games. Let's go through the

1381
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:37,000
Speaker 2: ones that you picked first, the lines that you like.

1382
01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:42,799
Speaker 2: If I am reading this color coding correctly, Florida minus

1383
01:09:42,840 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 2: six against Florida State is a game that you highlighted.

1384
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:47,559
Speaker 2: I don't know who you picked, but that's one game.

1385
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:48,280
Speaker 1: Yep.

1386
01:09:48,360 --> 01:09:52,679
Speaker 2: Iowa minus three at home against Nebraska is another. Oregon

1387
01:09:52,760 --> 01:09:58,080
Speaker 2: minus seven on the road, Platypus Cup against Oregon State,

1388
01:09:58,760 --> 01:10:02,360
Speaker 2: and then Washington on the road pretty much a pick

1389
01:10:02,400 --> 01:10:06,120
Speaker 2: them against Wazoo. Let's go through those four games quickly.

1390
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:09,559
Speaker 2: What did you see that you liked in those four I.

1391
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:11,560
Speaker 1: Like Florida State's defense. They're playing at home in a

1392
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:14,040
Speaker 1: rivalry game. That's enough for me as a home dog

1393
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:17,320
Speaker 1: to feel happy about that. Sam goes for Iowa, and

1394
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:19,680
Speaker 1: I still think that this Nebraska offense is the kind

1395
01:10:19,680 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 1: of offense that's going to throw into coverage in an

1396
01:10:23,479 --> 01:10:25,600
Speaker 1: unfortunate way, even though they were successful in doing it

1397
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 1: last year until they weren't with This was a Logan

1398
01:10:27,720 --> 01:10:30,120
Speaker 1: Smothers game, if I remember correctly, was it not? Yeah,

1399
01:10:30,360 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 1: it was a Logan Smothers game. So they'll have a

1400
01:10:32,080 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 1: higher level quarterback. But still I like Iowa to force

1401
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:37,599
Speaker 1: some turnovers here. I like Oregon on the road against

1402
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:40,479
Speaker 1: Oregon State, even though it's a potential letdown game after

1403
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:43,720
Speaker 1: maybe beating Utah or having an emotional loss to Utah

1404
01:10:43,760 --> 01:10:45,720
Speaker 1: the week before that. I'm just not in on the

1405
01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:48,200
Speaker 1: Oregon State defense at all. I think they should have

1406
01:10:48,240 --> 01:10:50,360
Speaker 1: their way, especially with how deep Oregon now looks at

1407
01:10:50,360 --> 01:10:55,639
Speaker 1: the skill positions. Wazoo against Washington, I'm just not sure

1408
01:10:55,800 --> 01:10:58,800
Speaker 1: what Washington has done since last year. They've gotten worse

1409
01:10:58,800 --> 01:11:02,000
Speaker 1: than the secondary, which was the strength. Quarterback is fully

1410
01:11:02,040 --> 01:11:04,439
Speaker 1: up in the air. I don't think there's any way

1411
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:06,760
Speaker 1: Michael Pennix makes it this far into the season if

1412
01:11:06,760 --> 01:11:09,519
Speaker 1: he's named the starter at Washington, and so I just

1413
01:11:09,600 --> 01:11:12,800
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a tough back half of

1414
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 1: the season for Washington. It's a particularly thin squad in

1415
01:11:16,439 --> 01:11:18,960
Speaker 1: terms of talent, so I mean, at least compared to

1416
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:22,080
Speaker 1: where they've been these past few years. And I just

1417
01:11:22,120 --> 01:11:24,799
Speaker 1: think there are going to be better vibes at Wazoo

1418
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 1: right now now. If you feel like this, I think

1419
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:32,400
Speaker 1: it's incarnate. Word is where the transfer Cameron Ward, Yes,

1420
01:11:32,640 --> 01:11:36,080
Speaker 1: Cameron Ward, which is very confusing with word yes Cameron Ward.

1421
01:11:36,240 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 1: If you're in on him, if you feel like he

1422
01:11:38,479 --> 01:11:43,120
Speaker 1: is the extremely rare FCS two fbs or especially power

1423
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 1: five quarterback transfer that works out, and you're you're high

1424
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 1: on him, than this is a no brainer to take Wazoo.

1425
01:11:50,040 --> 01:11:53,080
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit less in on him that I

1426
01:11:53,120 --> 01:11:56,639
Speaker 1: think some early narratives may suggest on the West Coast,

1427
01:11:56,640 --> 01:11:58,679
Speaker 1: which there aren't. There's not a lot of buzz about

1428
01:11:58,680 --> 01:12:02,400
Speaker 1: Wazoo right now and the j dickerd era, but I

1429
01:12:02,439 --> 01:12:06,439
Speaker 1: don't know Apple Cup rivalry game one point. I just

1430
01:12:06,479 --> 01:12:09,600
Speaker 1: think Washington's more of an uphill battle right now and

1431
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:11,640
Speaker 1: Wazoo is just a wildcard. So I'll go with the

1432
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:14,960
Speaker 1: wild card as a one point favorite at home. Okay,

1433
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 1: I don't hate you to stand. I'm with you. I'm

1434
01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 1: with you on that front.

1435
01:12:21,000 --> 01:12:24,080
Speaker 2: The two games that I highlighted are South Carolina at

1436
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,360
Speaker 2: Clemson Clemson favored by seventeen and a half and then

1437
01:12:27,439 --> 01:12:30,679
Speaker 2: Auburn at Alabama Alabama favored by twenty six. So look,

1438
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:32,559
Speaker 2: let's start with the Iron Bowl. Let's start with the

1439
01:12:32,560 --> 01:12:34,800
Speaker 2: iron balls. Yeah, that's a lot of points for the

1440
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:38,679
Speaker 2: Iron Bowl. There is definitely a perception out there, especially

1441
01:12:38,680 --> 01:12:42,040
Speaker 2: on rivalry week, that this is all you're heared a lot.

1442
01:12:42,080 --> 01:12:45,320
Speaker 2: This is always a close game. This is always a

1443
01:12:45,320 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 2: close game if you go back and actually look through

1444
01:12:49,479 --> 01:12:53,240
Speaker 2: that Iron Bowl. All right, recent memory, I'm talking since

1445
01:12:53,280 --> 01:12:56,719
Speaker 2: two thousand and eight, basically since Saban got there. Sabin

1446
01:12:56,800 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 2: has owned Auburn. There have been a couple exceptions, right,

1447
01:13:00,680 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 2: three or four exceptions win to everybody, but yeah, right,

1448
01:13:04,439 --> 01:13:08,719
Speaker 2: where Auburn has won a game, and I think back

1449
01:13:08,760 --> 01:13:12,839
Speaker 2: to what was it twenty seventeen, they won by double digits,

1450
01:13:12,840 --> 01:13:14,479
Speaker 2: but pretty much all the other games they want have

1451
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:17,040
Speaker 2: been closed. Alabama's had some games.

1452
01:13:16,800 --> 01:13:19,040
Speaker 1: In there where they won by like thirty one points.

1453
01:13:19,439 --> 01:13:22,639
Speaker 2: All right, sure, and that's just the course of the

1454
01:13:23,040 --> 01:13:28,679
Speaker 2: Alabama program under Nick Saban. I just I can't see

1455
01:13:28,720 --> 01:13:31,519
Speaker 2: laying that number in a rivalry game, like I am

1456
01:13:31,560 --> 01:13:34,040
Speaker 2: falling victim to this narrative that I just told you

1457
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:36,960
Speaker 2: shouldn't fall victim to. But twenty six points feels like

1458
01:13:36,960 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 2: an awful lot to me, especially in a rivalry game.

1459
01:13:40,200 --> 01:13:41,880
Speaker 2: I would probably be inclined to go Auburn. So last

1460
01:13:41,960 --> 01:13:45,640
Speaker 2: year was twenty one. Obviously they cover that game or

1461
01:13:45,640 --> 01:13:46,400
Speaker 2: they don't cover the game.

1462
01:13:46,439 --> 01:13:48,360
Speaker 1: They win that game by two points. They don't cover

1463
01:13:48,439 --> 01:13:51,400
Speaker 1: against Arkansas. This Alabama team, if you're looking at the

1464
01:13:51,439 --> 01:13:55,759
Speaker 1: pairing or the triplet, the triumvirate of Nick Saban, bell O'Brien,

1465
01:13:55,800 --> 01:14:00,559
Speaker 1: and Bryce Young eight and seven against the spread last year.

1466
01:14:01,320 --> 01:14:04,559
Speaker 1: So whatever benefit they were given in terms of being favorites,

1467
01:14:04,560 --> 01:14:08,720
Speaker 1: and I think they were favorites until the National Championship game.

1468
01:14:08,720 --> 01:14:10,799
Speaker 1: That first matchup of Georgia they were not a favorite,

1469
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:12,160
Speaker 1: and then the second matchup they were not. It was

1470
01:14:12,200 --> 01:14:14,800
Speaker 1: plus six and plus three. Otherwise they were favored all

1471
01:14:14,880 --> 01:14:18,960
Speaker 1: year long. So what I'm seeing here, if I'm doing

1472
01:14:19,040 --> 01:14:22,120
Speaker 1: quick back of the Napkin math, they cover that first

1473
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:24,639
Speaker 1: the sec Championship game as a dog, and they obviously

1474
01:14:24,640 --> 01:14:29,320
Speaker 1: don't cover the National Championship game, so as favorites, they

1475
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:30,519
Speaker 1: were right at five hundred.

1476
01:14:30,880 --> 01:14:35,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty six is a big number, and clearly they

1477
01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:37,080
Speaker 2: used to have a good handle. Yeah, they're gonna have

1478
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:38,160
Speaker 2: the AMO to cover it.

1479
01:14:39,120 --> 01:14:42,320
Speaker 1: But it is a rivalry spot. But what are they

1480
01:14:42,560 --> 01:14:46,280
Speaker 1: that's the But like they they had those cartoonish covers

1481
01:14:47,120 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 1: with top twelve level receiving talent with Jerry Judy and

1482
01:14:54,200 --> 01:14:59,240
Speaker 1: Devontae's all these guys. Do they have that? They Jermaine Burton,

1483
01:14:59,320 --> 01:15:02,880
Speaker 1: They have guys, but it's not as obvious. Well, it's

1484
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:04,439
Speaker 1: ninety six points. I don't know.

1485
01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:09,280
Speaker 2: We're doing a week thirteen line projection here on the

1486
01:15:09,360 --> 01:15:12,000
Speaker 2: same There might be value right now on the seventeen.

1487
01:15:12,120 --> 01:15:15,040
Speaker 2: I think the values on Auburn. Yeah, okay, if I'm

1488
01:15:15,040 --> 01:15:17,040
Speaker 2: being honest and I'm not crazy about Auburn, you know,

1489
01:15:17,080 --> 01:15:19,680
Speaker 2: I don't like Zack Zach Calzada. I talked about that

1490
01:15:19,720 --> 01:15:23,120
Speaker 2: twenty minutes ago. But twenty six points is a lot

1491
01:15:24,240 --> 01:15:26,600
Speaker 2: and they played them tight last year with a quarterback

1492
01:15:26,640 --> 01:15:27,120
Speaker 2: on one leg.

1493
01:15:27,120 --> 01:15:29,200
Speaker 1: They should have won. They should have gone for two. YEP.

1494
01:15:29,360 --> 01:15:32,040
Speaker 1: So maybe Harson's a different kind of cat in this game.

1495
01:15:32,080 --> 01:15:32,439
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1496
01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:35,840
Speaker 1: But here's the other thing I'm curious about that game.

1497
01:15:36,920 --> 01:15:40,559
Speaker 1: Alabama's not going to need We don't think they're not

1498
01:15:40,680 --> 01:15:43,280
Speaker 1: going to need if they are a top five ish

1499
01:15:43,320 --> 01:15:47,519
Speaker 1: team to play for style points because it's sort of

1500
01:15:47,520 --> 01:15:49,479
Speaker 1: a win the SEC and you're in unless you have

1501
01:15:49,520 --> 01:15:53,240
Speaker 1: three losses. It almost seems to be right now the reality.

1502
01:15:54,360 --> 01:15:57,840
Speaker 1: So to say that like they're gonna really need to

1503
01:15:57,840 --> 01:15:59,960
Speaker 1: pour it onto impressed voters or something to beat Auburn.

1504
01:16:00,000 --> 01:16:02,760
Speaker 1: I don't think Aburn's gonna be an especially well ranked team, no,

1505
01:16:02,840 --> 01:16:06,600
Speaker 1: at this point in the season, so either so, I

1506
01:16:07,240 --> 01:16:09,920
Speaker 1: just don't see them necessarily anyway thirty one to thirty

1507
01:16:09,920 --> 01:16:12,960
Speaker 1: five points or something like that. So I'm in on

1508
01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 1: just taking a taking the emotion of a rivalry game,

1509
01:16:16,280 --> 01:16:18,280
Speaker 1: and even if Alabama blows the doors off of them,

1510
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:20,479
Speaker 1: you know aubur can get a backdoor touchdown it lose

1511
01:16:20,520 --> 01:16:21,719
Speaker 1: by twenty two or something.

1512
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:24,920
Speaker 2: The other game that I'm intrigued about is the South

1513
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:31,280
Speaker 2: Carolina Clemson game called Metal Bowl. What's the big story

1514
01:16:31,360 --> 01:16:36,839
Speaker 2: this offseason as it relates to South Carolina? Dan Spencer

1515
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:41,320
Speaker 2: Rattler Spencer Rattler. Yeah, they got a lot better at quarterback.

1516
01:16:41,360 --> 01:16:43,320
Speaker 2: They lost this game thirty to nothing at home.

1517
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:45,280
Speaker 1: I must say, literally zero points.

1518
01:16:45,880 --> 01:16:48,640
Speaker 2: Lost this game by thirty at home. Did go on

1519
01:16:48,680 --> 01:16:51,720
Speaker 2: to win the Duke's Mayo Bowl, and Shane Biemer had

1520
01:16:51,760 --> 01:16:54,720
Speaker 2: the Mayo bath dumped upon his.

1521
01:16:54,760 --> 01:16:57,479
Speaker 1: Head yep, bonked upon his head.

1522
01:16:58,240 --> 01:17:02,120
Speaker 2: But I don't know, seventeen feels like a lot to me,

1523
01:17:02,680 --> 01:17:06,639
Speaker 2: And I think Spencer Rattler, especially with an enthusiastic coach

1524
01:17:06,720 --> 01:17:09,160
Speaker 2: like Shane Biemer who's trying to build this thing quickly,

1525
01:17:10,080 --> 01:17:12,840
Speaker 2: feels to me like the type of matchup where you're

1526
01:17:12,880 --> 01:17:15,519
Speaker 2: not gonna win. They're going to Clemson here, it's a

1527
01:17:15,560 --> 01:17:19,320
Speaker 2: tough place to play in Death Valley, but I could

1528
01:17:19,360 --> 01:17:21,840
Speaker 2: see him keeping it close on his arm and on.

1529
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 1: His arm alone.

1530
01:17:23,439 --> 01:17:26,080
Speaker 2: I'm not saying I'm betting it now. I also think

1531
01:17:26,080 --> 01:17:27,640
Speaker 2: there's a chance this could be twenty one by the

1532
01:17:27,680 --> 01:17:29,640
Speaker 2: time the game kicks off, So don't bet it now,

1533
01:17:29,720 --> 01:17:33,360
Speaker 2: maybe if you like Clemson better now. But I'm intrigued

1534
01:17:33,400 --> 01:17:36,519
Speaker 2: by that matchup at this point in mid May.

1535
01:17:37,560 --> 01:17:41,200
Speaker 1: All right. I'm I'm always trying to be less mean

1536
01:17:41,640 --> 01:17:44,360
Speaker 1: in the way I look at things because I know

1537
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:47,080
Speaker 1: that I can fall into that trap. Didn't Spencer Rattler

1538
01:17:47,120 --> 01:17:48,920
Speaker 1: get benched last year? He did?

1539
01:17:49,120 --> 01:17:51,320
Speaker 2: Dan didn't he get bench playing.

1540
01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:53,439
Speaker 1: For a power five program with good receivers and a

1541
01:17:53,439 --> 01:17:56,280
Speaker 1: good offensive mind and it wasn't a great offensive line.

1542
01:17:56,320 --> 01:17:59,240
Speaker 1: He did? He did? Okay, so quarterback gets bench. He's

1543
01:17:59,240 --> 01:18:01,439
Speaker 1: going to a place won't be as good upfront, that

1544
01:18:01,520 --> 01:18:05,160
Speaker 1: doesn't have the receivers, that doesn't have the offensive line plays.

1545
01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:06,320
Speaker 2: I'm a romantic.

1546
01:18:06,360 --> 01:18:08,759
Speaker 1: What can I say? I think I think he's better

1547
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:11,160
Speaker 1: than what they started for a chunk of last year.

1548
01:18:12,040 --> 01:18:16,559
Speaker 1: They'll scored zero points against Clubson. It doesn't do too

1549
01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:17,080
Speaker 1: much for me.

1550
01:18:17,160 --> 01:18:20,160
Speaker 2: Okay, on the line two that you called out here

1551
01:18:20,240 --> 01:18:24,000
Speaker 2: quickly and then will end this promise. Okay, USC favored

1552
01:18:24,040 --> 01:18:25,920
Speaker 2: by two and a half at home against Notre Dame,

1553
01:18:26,200 --> 01:18:28,519
Speaker 2: and A and M favored by nine and a half

1554
01:18:28,520 --> 01:18:29,559
Speaker 2: at home against LSU.

1555
01:18:29,560 --> 01:18:33,880
Speaker 1: Why do you highlight those games? I highlighted USC because

1556
01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:36,639
Speaker 1: if you have a strong stance about USC right now,

1557
01:18:37,000 --> 01:18:40,960
Speaker 1: that their defense has a long ways to go, that

1558
01:18:42,640 --> 01:18:45,000
Speaker 1: their offensive line has a long ways to go, whatever,

1559
01:18:45,479 --> 01:18:47,800
Speaker 1: there's value in seeing them as a favorite against Notre

1560
01:18:47,880 --> 01:18:49,760
Speaker 1: Dame team that I think should be pretty good by

1561
01:18:49,760 --> 01:18:51,280
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Again, I think they're gonna

1562
01:18:51,280 --> 01:18:52,960
Speaker 1: take their lumps, and I think people are gonna say, oh,

1563
01:18:53,000 --> 01:18:55,000
Speaker 1: it turns out Brian Kelly is pretty good. But by

1564
01:18:55,040 --> 01:18:57,320
Speaker 1: the end of the year. I think if you feel

1565
01:18:57,360 --> 01:18:59,840
Speaker 1: strongly about either one of these teams, you should circle

1566
01:18:59,880 --> 01:19:04,360
Speaker 1: the possibility of wagering this game. Also, I like Texas

1567
01:19:04,400 --> 01:19:06,840
Speaker 1: A and M against LSU in this matchup. Do you

1568
01:19:07,240 --> 01:19:12,519
Speaker 1: who's starting a quarterback for LSU. That's probably everybody you

1569
01:19:12,560 --> 01:19:14,720
Speaker 1: know where I stand on this, Yeah, And same question

1570
01:19:14,760 --> 01:19:16,320
Speaker 1: about A and M. I get all that, I get

1571
01:19:16,320 --> 01:19:18,519
Speaker 1: all that A M's a difficult place to play. I

1572
01:19:18,560 --> 01:19:20,280
Speaker 1: think the defense is going to be humming with DJ

1573
01:19:20,360 --> 01:19:22,519
Speaker 1: Dirkin by this time. There's so much talent, and the

1574
01:19:22,680 --> 01:19:26,160
Speaker 1: freshman will be worked in by this time. I think

1575
01:19:26,200 --> 01:19:28,720
Speaker 1: A and M. I think a receiver will emerge by then.

1576
01:19:29,240 --> 01:19:31,280
Speaker 1: And as much as I do like the potential in

1577
01:19:31,320 --> 01:19:33,320
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of different areas for LSU,

1578
01:19:33,880 --> 01:19:36,440
Speaker 1: I think it's a great matchup for A and M. Potentially,

1579
01:19:38,080 --> 01:19:41,439
Speaker 1: I think LSU will be better than people expect. Who's

1580
01:19:41,520 --> 01:19:48,479
Speaker 1: people me, Yeah, you're people, Okay, I'm people. I'm curious

1581
01:19:48,520 --> 01:19:53,040
Speaker 1: to see how lsu faars this year. That's an interesting matchup,

1582
01:19:53,040 --> 01:19:56,200
Speaker 1: but it's hard to really gauge from my standpoint because

1583
01:19:56,200 --> 01:19:58,800
Speaker 1: I don't know who's playing quarterback at that point in

1584
01:19:58,840 --> 01:20:01,599
Speaker 1: the season for A and M yep at that point

1585
01:20:01,600 --> 01:20:02,080
Speaker 1: in the season.

1586
01:20:02,240 --> 01:20:05,519
Speaker 2: Haynes King, Yeah right. We talked to Sam kN SAMKHN

1587
01:20:05,600 --> 01:20:09,400
Speaker 2: talked a lot about his conversations with Jimbo Fisher, and

1588
01:20:09,960 --> 01:20:13,080
Speaker 2: you alluded to it earlier as well. Jimbo likes Haynes King.

1589
01:20:13,520 --> 01:20:15,400
Speaker 2: He liked him last year. He named them the starting quarterback.

1590
01:20:15,640 --> 01:20:18,080
Speaker 2: Haines King is a different kind of quarterback. He is

1591
01:20:18,120 --> 01:20:21,400
Speaker 2: more mobile, true dual threat kind of kid. And those

1592
01:20:21,439 --> 01:20:24,519
Speaker 2: types of quarterbacks have given Notre Dame fits. Now they

1593
01:20:24,520 --> 01:20:28,000
Speaker 2: give everybody fits, to be fair, but Brian Kelly in

1594
01:20:28,040 --> 01:20:31,400
Speaker 2: particular has had problems with those types of quarterbacks scheming

1595
01:20:31,400 --> 01:20:33,920
Speaker 2: a defense in a way that can curtail what they

1596
01:20:33,920 --> 01:20:36,040
Speaker 2: bring to the table. Part of the reason why I

1597
01:20:36,040 --> 01:20:38,519
Speaker 2: think that Week one game against Florida State could be interesting.

1598
01:20:38,560 --> 01:20:41,479
Speaker 2: Despite what I said about Jordan Travis, Jordan Travis is

1599
01:20:41,520 --> 01:20:44,400
Speaker 2: a true dual threat guy, maybe more of a runner

1600
01:20:44,439 --> 01:20:44,880
Speaker 2: than a thrower.

1601
01:20:44,920 --> 01:20:45,400
Speaker 1: But he's good.

1602
01:20:45,760 --> 01:20:48,559
Speaker 2: Okay, He's better than I thought, so that's of interest

1603
01:20:48,600 --> 01:20:50,599
Speaker 2: to me. That's an interesting matchup that I think could

1604
01:20:50,600 --> 01:20:53,200
Speaker 2: pose a challenge for Brian Kelly. It always has before

1605
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:56,720
Speaker 2: looking forward to this game. They're just too many variables.

1606
01:20:57,000 --> 01:20:58,680
Speaker 2: I get why you would like A and M there.

1607
01:21:00,040 --> 01:21:02,080
Speaker 2: I totally get it, especially late in the season to

1608
01:21:02,160 --> 01:21:04,519
Speaker 2: that point, but I don't think we should discount what

1609
01:21:04,680 --> 01:21:07,960
Speaker 2: LSU has from a talent standpoint either. They've done pretty well.

1610
01:21:08,040 --> 01:21:10,160
Speaker 2: Quarterback might be the thing that we're all fixated on,

1611
01:21:10,240 --> 01:21:12,439
Speaker 2: but I do think that team, by that point in

1612
01:21:12,439 --> 01:21:15,240
Speaker 2: the season, if we see out of this Brian Kelly

1613
01:21:15,240 --> 01:21:18,480
Speaker 2: team what we saw out of previous Brian Kelly iterations

1614
01:21:18,520 --> 01:21:21,840
Speaker 2: at Notre Dame. They play hard down the stretch, that

1615
01:21:21,880 --> 01:21:23,519
Speaker 2: could be a situation where A and M's got to

1616
01:21:23,520 --> 01:21:26,680
Speaker 2: target on their back. And if that's the case, I

1617
01:21:26,680 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 2: think Kelly will do well enough as a coach to

1618
01:21:29,479 --> 01:21:32,160
Speaker 2: keep that game relatively close. So I'm staying away there.

1619
01:21:33,439 --> 01:21:35,760
Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from. The USC Notre Dame

1620
01:21:35,800 --> 01:21:37,840
Speaker 2: one's interesting. I don't know what to make of either

1621
01:21:37,880 --> 01:21:40,840
Speaker 2: of those teams. My sense based on these lines is

1622
01:21:40,840 --> 01:21:43,000
Speaker 2: that everyone's favoring USC a little too much and that

1623
01:21:43,040 --> 01:21:46,160
Speaker 2: Notre Dame's all over the place right. Week one, you've

1624
01:21:46,160 --> 01:21:49,040
Speaker 2: got Notre Dame as a thirteen and a half point

1625
01:21:49,080 --> 01:21:52,360
Speaker 2: dog against Texas A and or Texas Oha State.

1626
01:21:52,400 --> 01:21:52,920
Speaker 1: Excuse me.

1627
01:21:53,160 --> 01:21:57,120
Speaker 2: Week two against Cal, they're a seventeen point favorite. I

1628
01:21:57,160 --> 01:21:59,320
Speaker 2: get it. Cal's not that good. They weren't last year,

1629
01:21:59,360 --> 01:22:03,240
Speaker 2: but they're better and people thought. And week two, after

1630
01:22:03,280 --> 01:22:07,599
Speaker 2: that big game, just it seems to me like Vegas.

1631
01:22:07,640 --> 01:22:09,400
Speaker 2: Maybe it doesn't have a great sense for Notre Dame either,

1632
01:22:09,600 --> 01:22:13,040
Speaker 2: So I would stay away from that one. I wouldn't

1633
01:22:13,040 --> 01:22:15,559
Speaker 2: bet that with one hundred dollars of your money. Just

1634
01:22:15,640 --> 01:22:17,320
Speaker 2: keep it, keep that one well away from me. But

1635
01:22:17,400 --> 01:22:19,240
Speaker 2: I do agree if you like USC there could be

1636
01:22:19,320 --> 01:22:19,760
Speaker 2: value there.

1637
01:22:20,560 --> 01:22:23,439
Speaker 1: I just there is something about if you're going to

1638
01:22:23,479 --> 01:22:26,000
Speaker 1: make me choose. Maybe this goes against something I just said.

1639
01:22:26,040 --> 01:22:29,160
Speaker 1: I don't even remember when I said ten minutes ago.

1640
01:22:29,280 --> 01:22:32,320
Speaker 1: There is something more dependable about a good defense late

1641
01:22:32,320 --> 01:22:34,760
Speaker 1: in the year, that there is something about effort, that

1642
01:22:34,800 --> 01:22:37,800
Speaker 1: there is something about lines, specifically that if you're good

1643
01:22:37,800 --> 01:22:39,920
Speaker 1: at preventing big plays, if you're good at getting after

1644
01:22:39,960 --> 01:22:42,960
Speaker 1: the quarterback, even if you lose, you can cover. And

1645
01:22:43,000 --> 01:22:46,000
Speaker 1: that's I think reflected on the teams that seem to

1646
01:22:46,000 --> 01:22:50,599
Speaker 1: perform well against the line, I'll side with defenses more often.

1647
01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:54,639
Speaker 1: I just think there's more that can be depended on. So, okay,

1648
01:22:55,680 --> 01:22:57,080
Speaker 1: I think USC is going to be all over the

1649
01:22:57,080 --> 01:22:58,600
Speaker 1: place because when they win, it's going to be with

1650
01:22:58,680 --> 01:23:01,759
Speaker 1: offensive fireworks, and when they don't, it's going to because

1651
01:23:01,800 --> 01:23:03,800
Speaker 1: they can't get off the field on defense. And so

1652
01:23:04,280 --> 01:23:06,439
Speaker 1: that's where I think if you like Notre Dame late

1653
01:23:06,439 --> 01:23:09,920
Speaker 1: in the year, that they're not reliant on transfers in

1654
01:23:09,960 --> 01:23:12,120
Speaker 1: the same way that USC is. And even though those

1655
01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:14,840
Speaker 1: transfers will be well acclimated to a USC system by then,

1656
01:23:15,439 --> 01:23:17,880
Speaker 1: there is something about Notre Dame. If you like Notre Dame,

1657
01:23:17,920 --> 01:23:21,479
Speaker 1: I think it's the good reason is that it's easier

1658
01:23:21,479 --> 01:23:23,400
Speaker 1: to bank on defense over the course of a year

1659
01:23:23,439 --> 01:23:24,280
Speaker 1: against the spread.

1660
01:23:24,720 --> 01:23:26,280
Speaker 2: One other one that I'm calling out quick and then

1661
01:23:26,280 --> 01:23:29,599
Speaker 2: we're going to end this thing. Please Baylor getting seven

1662
01:23:29,640 --> 01:23:31,559
Speaker 2: on the road at Texas final week of the year,

1663
01:23:32,680 --> 01:23:35,559
Speaker 2: it is not beyond Texas for just a good week

1664
01:23:35,640 --> 01:23:39,360
Speaker 2: thirteen bed crapping a one, two, three can coon or

1665
01:23:39,439 --> 01:23:43,680
Speaker 2: a can't coon' nailing it in. But okay, it is

1666
01:23:43,720 --> 01:23:48,679
Speaker 2: not beyond Texas too, especially against a well coached team. Yeah,

1667
01:23:49,560 --> 01:23:52,080
Speaker 2: David r Anda laed Baylor Bears. It is not beyond

1668
01:23:52,080 --> 01:23:54,360
Speaker 2: those Longhorns for a late season bed crapping.

1669
01:23:56,000 --> 01:23:58,000
Speaker 1: Well, Baylor did come on strong to close out the

1670
01:23:58,040 --> 01:24:01,240
Speaker 1: air and win the conference. And let's see, Texas is

1671
01:24:01,280 --> 01:24:05,120
Speaker 1: at Kansas the week before Baylor, so that's not especially challenging.

1672
01:24:05,200 --> 01:24:08,840
Speaker 1: And Baylor will be who do they have this year

1673
01:24:08,880 --> 01:24:12,800
Speaker 1: before Texas? I'm looking at their schedule TCU. Okay, so

1674
01:24:12,920 --> 01:24:17,560
Speaker 1: the revivalry, so some emotion there, Okay, I don't know,

1675
01:24:17,600 --> 01:24:20,439
Speaker 1: maybe Texas. Maybe Texas has a championship game on deck.

1676
01:24:21,760 --> 01:24:25,160
Speaker 1: Perhaps a look ahead situation. I don't know, Okay, I understand,

1677
01:24:25,360 --> 01:24:26,719
Speaker 1: it's week thirteen, it's May.

1678
01:24:26,880 --> 01:24:30,000
Speaker 2: I have no idea what to expect, all right, So look,

1679
01:24:30,120 --> 01:24:33,639
Speaker 2: we covered a lot of ground here. Yeah, the whole season.

1680
01:24:33,640 --> 01:24:34,400
Speaker 1: We don't even need to do.

1681
01:24:34,320 --> 01:24:37,080
Speaker 2: A podcast anymore. We just laid it all out there

1682
01:24:37,080 --> 01:24:40,760
Speaker 2: for you. Some early reactions to some of these early

1683
01:24:40,800 --> 01:24:43,639
Speaker 2: lines that we saw right in. So yeah, at gmail

1684
01:24:43,680 --> 01:24:44,400
Speaker 2: dot com, let us.

1685
01:24:44,360 --> 01:24:45,040
Speaker 1: Know your thoughts.

1686
01:24:45,400 --> 01:24:49,600
Speaker 2: Please do follow along on social media. Tweet us, Facebook, us, Instagram,

1687
01:24:49,640 --> 01:24:52,160
Speaker 2: whatever whatever you got, send us a message.

1688
01:24:52,240 --> 01:24:54,880
Speaker 1: Let us know where you stand. Ties home number six

1689
01:24:54,880 --> 01:24:55,760
Speaker 1: to one oh no, no, no.

1690
01:24:57,120 --> 01:25:02,600
Speaker 2: So let's go through these as we typically do with

1691
01:25:02,720 --> 01:25:05,680
Speaker 2: ourverballers over on discord, which you can find at for

1692
01:25:05,720 --> 01:25:09,960
Speaker 2: ballers dot com. Talk through these lines. Great people, good

1693
01:25:10,040 --> 01:25:12,479
Speaker 2: college football fans, and form college football fans. We love

1694
01:25:12,520 --> 01:25:14,880
Speaker 2: each and every one of them. Talk about these lines

1695
01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:17,000
Speaker 2: over there. You know how to get in touch with this.

1696
01:25:17,120 --> 01:25:19,200
Speaker 2: We want to get your take on this. Frankly, if

1697
01:25:19,200 --> 01:25:21,040
Speaker 2: there is an angle that I have missed or something

1698
01:25:21,040 --> 01:25:22,880
Speaker 2: that I'm really off on, I would like to know

1699
01:25:22,920 --> 01:25:24,519
Speaker 2: about it because I do have some money that I'm

1700
01:25:24,520 --> 01:25:25,400
Speaker 2: willing to invest here.

1701
01:25:26,240 --> 01:25:26,720
Speaker 1: So me know.

1702
01:25:26,880 --> 01:25:28,360
Speaker 2: Let me know what I got wrong, what it got right,

1703
01:25:28,400 --> 01:25:31,320
Speaker 2: what Dan got wrong? When he got right? And come

1704
01:25:31,360 --> 01:25:33,200
Speaker 2: on back Thursday. What are we doing Thursday?

1705
01:25:33,280 --> 01:25:35,000
Speaker 1: Q and A. Yeah, we're gonna do a Q and

1706
01:25:35,120 --> 01:25:36,960
Speaker 1: A And I guess you said you have a bunch

1707
01:25:36,960 --> 01:25:39,600
Speaker 1: of crypto tips that you're going to give out. Is

1708
01:25:39,600 --> 01:25:40,479
Speaker 1: that what you've been saying?

1709
01:25:40,560 --> 01:25:42,599
Speaker 2: No, it's definitely did I miss hear that. Oh I'm

1710
01:25:42,640 --> 01:25:43,600
Speaker 2: definitely misheard that.

1711
01:25:43,680 --> 01:25:46,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's somebody else. Okay, that's all I have.

1712
01:25:48,040 --> 01:25:51,200
Speaker 2: Thanks again for stopping on by. We appreciate your download,

1713
01:25:51,280 --> 01:25:54,200
Speaker 2: your support. Don't forget to hit that subscribe button if

1714
01:25:54,240 --> 01:25:56,200
Speaker 2: you like what you heard. Forballers dot com is the

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01:25:56,200 --> 01:26:00,320
Speaker 2: Patreon soldgiveaway dot com. If you want to compete, at

1716
01:26:00,400 --> 01:26:02,960
Speaker 2: least get your name in the hat to win. Frank

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01:26:02,960 --> 01:26:05,040
Speaker 2: Beamer signed NEO for that. Gu Up there, Dan Rubenstein,

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01:26:05,080 --> 01:26:07,719
Speaker 2: form myself, tie Hilden Brandon. We will be back on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: In the meantime, they sign him Peace