1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network. 2 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: It's New Year's Eve Day Later onto the show, Simon 3 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: Hunter Professional Better and Darren Revel Professional Non Better. It's 4 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 1: gonna be on the show. They're gonna be on the show. 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: We're gonna review our year for the Westgate Las Vegas 6 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: Super Contest. We did not win one point five million dollars. 7 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: We did not win any money, but we came oh 8 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: so freaking close. We were four and one in the 9 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: final weekend of the year. We finished one and a 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: half games out of the money, which is just crushing. 11 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: But Darren and Simon are gonna come on and we're 12 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: gonna talk about what we've learned and reviewed the season 13 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: for a few minutes. We're gonna congratulate Simon on getting 14 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: us to Yahoo's as close as he did, because it 15 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: was not easy. I can tell you that right now. 16 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: But for first joining me for the last podcast of 17 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: the decade, two thousand nine from New Orleans representing all 18 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: of the BOYD Gaming books throughout the country. Bob Scucci, 19 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: Mr Scucci, how are you Chad? What's going on? Dude? 20 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: We made it through another season. I of course was 21 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: brilliant in case you need a reminder, I win your 22 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: final tally. Let me give you my final tally, Bob. 23 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: It was one, one, one, twelve and three. Fifty five 24 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: point seven was my winning percentage against the spread. What 25 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: do you think of that? That's pretty strong, I mean 26 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: approach and fifty is really good. I don't think people 27 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: realize how hard how hard that is to do. I mean, 28 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 1: you know, you hear people saying that they hit sixty. 29 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 1: That's over a short, short sample of games, I'm sure, 30 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: But to do two fifty six games throughout the entire 31 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,919 Speaker 1: football season, every NFL game, that's pretty good. How hard 32 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: is it, Bob? How hard is it to do that? 33 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: What would you say you would have expected me to 34 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: do betting every game? I would have expected right around 35 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: fifty four fifty three, and that would have been very 36 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: good as well. You know, every year for the last 37 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: fifteen twenty years, one of the local papers here in 38 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: Las Vegas, they have all the bookmakers at kind of 39 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: all the the major casinos, UH do kind of something 40 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: similar to pick every game throughout all the uh the 41 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 1: NFL season, and remarkably almost all of them are right 42 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 1: at So these are all these are all the sports 43 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 1: book directors. You know some some of them are well 44 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: below fift, some of them are a little higher than 45 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: but very rarely do you see anyone approaching uh, you know, 46 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 1: anything close to. So here's what's interesting to me is 47 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: I never expected to not make money on this. So 48 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 1: as you know, like I was doing this with a 49 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: friend and we put in money at the beginning of 50 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: the year. We never had to put money back in. 51 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: We went eleven and five the first weekend, and for 52 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: the rest of the year we were playing basically with 53 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: the initial investment, so we never had to put money 54 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: back in order to beat all two D and fifty 55 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: six games, which was a thrill because I was actually 56 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: nervous ab that. Um. But for some reason, I never 57 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: expected to do anything less than the r O I 58 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: positive inness. Yeah, that's pretty uh pretty positive thinking. They're 59 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: pretty confident. Yeah, well, listen, I am a confident confident man. 60 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: I mean the point spreads, I mean the points spreads 61 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: are specifically designed so that everyone goes fifty fifty. That's 62 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: what makes it so difficult, and picking picking winners is 63 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 1: kind of knowing or or seeming to know what is 64 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: not built into the point spread. That's kind of the 65 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: trick of handicapping is finding some kind of angle or 66 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: metric that's not built into the point spread, because that's 67 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: what they're designed for, so that everyone goes fifty. So 68 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: what I think is not built into the point spread 69 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: is usually public perception. And what I mean by that 70 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: is the public perception that comes from having watched the 71 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: games and then try to into it what you think 72 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: the public is going to believe and then betting against that. 73 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: And we've talked a lot about the Dolphins, we talked 74 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 1: a lot about the Cults earlier in the year. We 75 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: talked a lot about the Jets in very specific spots 76 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: and sort of the public knowing when it last saw 77 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: and then automatically deciding that's how a team was going 78 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 1: to perform the following week, and knowing that you, as 79 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: the bookmaker, we're going to shade the team that they 80 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: were playing, or shade the team that they were playing. 81 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: When do you, as the bookmaker, structure we consider your 82 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: position or anything. The public is so smart that there 83 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: is no value in sort of overshading based on what 84 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: you think the public is going to believe. Yeah, I 85 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: mean it's different. I can't generalize and say when I 86 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: mean it's it's it's kind of a feel and when 87 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 1: you're saying, I think you have an advantage when you're 88 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: able to see thousands and thousands of bets coming across 89 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: every day and you kind of you're you're almost getting 90 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: inside the mind of the casual better, which is scary 91 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: actually when you think about that. But but you start 92 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: to see their patterns and you can almost predict what 93 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: they're gonna do and when they're going to jump off 94 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: a team and when they're going to keep riding a team. Um, 95 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,919 Speaker 1: And that's kind of what we try to do, is 96 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: get in get into their into their heads to kind 97 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 1: of predict what they're going to do, so we can 98 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: kind of head them off at the past and then 99 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 1: kind of at the same time, you've got the opposite 100 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: thing working where you're going up against the sharp professional 101 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: betters and in many cases they're on opposite sides of 102 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: the casual fans. So it's, uh, it's just one of 103 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: those dynamics that keeps going back and forth. I have 104 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: always believed that bookmakers are probably the best psychologists in 105 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 1: the country. They know more about what the public is 106 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: thinking and what people are thinking then they do when 107 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 1: they're actually doing it. Like you guys know what people 108 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: are going to do before they do it, and you 109 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: know why they're gonna do it. Yeah. It's funny because 110 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: like I'll like on Mondays or Tuesdays each week and 111 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: I run into people and they tell me, uh, yeah, 112 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: I had seven out of eight teams and uh And 113 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: I could always tell them what their eight team was 114 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: that the losing team, And then they're always amazed, and 115 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 1: I'm like, let me guess you're lost on this game. 116 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: They're like, how did you know that? Well? I just 117 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 1: picked all the most popular teams and saw which one 118 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: was the biggest surprise, and that was that was the 119 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: one that you you had that cost you your eight 120 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: team parlay. You're like, because it's my job to know, 121 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: because without you, I don't make any money. Exactly, that's 122 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: what you want to say. We got a bunch of 123 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: playoff games this weekend, so we gotta dig in. You 124 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: know what I'm saying. Are you ready to see that 125 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: I do? Here we go Saturday, Buffalo at Houston. Houston 126 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite. As you know, 127 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: I am also in a very high stakes super Bowl pool. 128 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: The beginning of the year. Uh, it's a two thousand 129 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: dollar buy in. There's four, there's three four people total. 130 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: Winner wins eight thousand dollars or six thousand dollars including 131 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: not including the money that they put in themselves. And uh, 132 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: you pick eight teams at the beginning of the year, 133 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: and hopefully you win the Super Bowl with one of 134 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: those teams. I picked eight teams, including I have five 135 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: teams that made the playoffs. No one else had five 136 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 1: teams make the plaoffs. I have the Chiefs, I have 137 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: the Niners, I have the Bills, Texans, and Titans. What 138 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: do you think of that? That's pretty strong, my man? 139 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: That is is it possible? And just really good at 140 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: this It's possible. All those years, all those years around 141 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: the sports books, they're paying off, finally paying us. So 142 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,079 Speaker 1: I got Buffalo visiting Houston two and a half way 143 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: favorites of the Houston Texans. I guess at two and 144 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: a half, I lean towards the Texans just because they're 145 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: a short home favorite. But I don't love this game. 146 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: I don't see a huge advantage here. That was kind 147 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: of what we were thinking. We hung three on this game, 148 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 1: and we've taken more money on the Bills than any 149 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: other game on the board. Part of that is the 150 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: initial uh just opinion of the sharp guys on the Bills, 151 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: but now recently it's because we're the only three left 152 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: out there. Like you mentioned, most everyone is at two 153 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: and a half. Um, I just want to avoid the 154 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 1: situation where I'm bouncing back and forth between two and 155 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: a half and three. I don't want to do that. 156 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: So I really if I'm going to get off the three, 157 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,319 Speaker 1: it's because it's going to be because of a lot 158 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: of money on the Bills. I did favorite the Texans, uh, 159 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: like you said the earlier, given all things being equal, 160 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: I would probably uh take the home team here lay 161 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: in a field goal. Uh. The one kind of drawback 162 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: is that Houston is really banged up. So they have 163 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: got a lot of question marks going into this game 164 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: at the wide receivers spot, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills. On 165 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 1: the defensive side, I mean, they've got cornerbacks, linebackers all 166 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: listened as questionable. Uh that's gonna be. I mean, you 167 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: can fade one or two injuries, but when you're talking 168 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: about five or six going into a playoffs game, it 169 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: could it could have an impact, and I think that's 170 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 1: part of the reason, uh that we're seeing such a 171 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: uh an amount being a bet on the bills from 172 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 1: from some of the sharper guys. The ticket account on 173 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: this one is almost identical, so the that the casual 174 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: fans are just it's a coin toss to them. But honestly, 175 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: I feel like, if you're gonna bet on the bills 176 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,439 Speaker 1: at my at plus two and a half, you almost 177 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: might as well bet him on the money line, because 178 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: to me, this is a field goal game. Yeah, and 179 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: we did. We've got way more money on the bills 180 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 1: money line at plus one. Now we were at we 181 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: opened up the dollar fifty on the Texans money line, 182 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 1: which meant you could have gotten plus a dollar thirty 183 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: on the bills. Were down to plus a dollar and 184 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: almost no money on the Texans money line. Ironically, it's 185 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 1: just you know, just all bills money line. And uh 186 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: we got a little bit more, even split bets on 187 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: the point line on the game, but still just a 188 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: lot a lot of money on the bills. And impressed 189 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: that I transitioned it to money line at that numbers. 190 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: It's impressive to I never never ceased to be amazed 191 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 1: and impressed by myself and my ability to think about 192 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 1: the logic and strategy in sports betting after all these years. Scooch, Uh, 193 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: you are your fan? Yeah, exactly. New England, someone's got 194 00:11:58,000 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: to be New England is a four and a half 195 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: point favorite over the Tennessee Titans. I love Tennessee in 196 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: the spot. I'm not saying that I think they're gonna 197 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: win the game, but I do think that that line 198 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: seems awfully inflated. Tell me why you got to that line. Well, 199 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: we opened six, so it was really inflated, and it 200 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: got bet down four and a half. So yeah, we 201 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: took it. We took a lot of money on the Titans. 202 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 1: I will say that I moved it pretty quickly. Um So, 203 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 1: considering a point and a half line change from six 204 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: down to four and a half. There's still a lot 205 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: of places out there that are at five and a 206 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: half and five. So we did move pretty quickly. And 207 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: I agree with you, there seems to be more value 208 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: on the Titans. It's kind of it's ironic that after 209 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: all these years of needing whoever the Patriots faced, Uh, 210 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,959 Speaker 1: and all the public money and public support on the Patriots, 211 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: I think most of the casual fans realized that the 212 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: Patriots had really easy schedule this year. Uh. And outside 213 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: of you know, the two wins against the Bills, which 214 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: is probably they're kind of defining wins this year. You 215 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: look back, they beat the Cowboys, but in retrospect, uh, 216 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: that that really didn't carry as much weight as it 217 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: did at the time. Um. The rest of their schedule 218 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: was filled up with like the NFC East, They played 219 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 1: the Giants, they played the Redskins. Uh, they beat the Eagles, 220 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: but a lot of their wins were against teams like 221 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: the Jets, and uh, you know, Jets, Giants and Redskins 222 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: and Brown's not a whole lot of impressive wins. So 223 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 1: they do look beatable. And then of course that last 224 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: weekend against the Dolphins as a huge seventeen point favorites, Uh, 225 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 1: that didn't bode well for that neither going into the playoffs. Now, 226 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 1: having said all that, you just you always have to 227 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: kind of be be careful anytime you're betting against the 228 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 1: Patriots in the playoffs situation. I agree, I do think 229 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: there's value in this number, but I'm not going to 230 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: be one of those people who like this is exactly 231 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: what I'm talking about at the beginning of the podcast, Like, 232 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 1: look at what the public is saying, look at what 233 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 1: you just saw from this team. Do you truly believe 234 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: that the Patriots are as bad as the team that 235 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: lost to the Dolphins and the Titans are really the 236 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: team that beat up on the Texans team that wasn't 237 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 1: playing any of its starters. Like, that's what you've got 238 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: to be considering. Like, I think there's value at four 239 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: and a half because I think the Titan, the Texans, 240 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: the Patriots are probably not better than a field goal 241 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: against anybody in the playoffs. But if it got to 242 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: a field goal, man, I'd be all over the Patriots. Yeah, 243 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: the numbers critical here, and uh, like I said, we're 244 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: probably opened a little too high at that number six 245 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: um that the wives guys, sure they let us know 246 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: that we were a little high on that um. You know, 247 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: but you know, you look at what this line would 248 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: have been at the beginning of the season and what 249 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: it is now. I think it says a lot about 250 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: how hot the Titans were the last half of the year. 251 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: I think I've said it every week, is that it's 252 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: one of the teams that the Sharp guys had really 253 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: been riding high on they absolutely love this play his 254 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: team the last five six weeks of the regular season. 255 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: And uh, and like I said, the Patriots have looked 256 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: beat a bold in every single game. So uh, you know, 257 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: outside of maybe at forty three to nothing win against 258 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: the Dolphins early in the year, or maybe that first 259 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: game against the Steelers when when Ben Roethlisberger was still 260 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: in the game. Um, but outside of that, they've looked beatable, 261 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: even even in games that they won. So, um, it's 262 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: gonna be It's gonna be a good one. I think 263 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: there's one of my games I'm most looking forward to, 264 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: me to New Orleans at Minnesota. Uh, New Orleans, I'm 265 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: sorry Minnesota. New Orleans. New Orleans is an eight point favorite. 266 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 1: I think I lean Minnesota here, but I don't know 267 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: a strong attended the Sharp. This is the game with 268 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: the biggest um split between Sharp guys in the public. 269 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: The public. It is all over the Saints. I mean 270 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: the ticket account on this one is about twelve to 271 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: one right now. Absolutely everybody that's just the casual fans 272 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 1: just walking in and just bet Saints. But the Sharp 273 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: guys have taken the plus eight I just noticed this 274 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: morning a lot of places went down to seven and 275 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: a half, which indicates they're getting the vikings of money 276 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 1: as well. So our bigger bets are on the Vikings 277 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: at plus eight and all the little guys are on 278 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: the Saints at minus eight. So um, I think it's 279 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: just indicates what you just said. They've got a lean 280 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: towards the vikings. It's not real strong, but I think 281 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: the value is probably a little bit more on the 282 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: plus eight here. Yeah, I think so too. But it's 283 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: my least favorite. It's my least favorite of all the 284 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: games on the board. Uh. The other game, the last game. 285 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: I love this Seattle minus one and a half at Philly. 286 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: Do you know what I love about this? What I 287 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: love getting a home dog in the playoffs, a team 288 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 1: that nobody is thinking should win anything. Yeah, yeah, that's 289 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: what I left. Um yeah, this is this is gonna 290 00:16:55,800 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: be our biggest game on the board for several reasons. Uh. 291 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: Number one, everybody sees the Seahawks as a much better team. 292 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: The casual fan they just see that. You know. The 293 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: Seahawks had a couple of real close games against the Fortys, 294 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: winning one losing one. Both games pretty close. Um. Eagles 295 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: really hadn't. They've been kind of battling injuries all year, 296 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 1: They've been up and down. They kind of backed their 297 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: way into the UH into the playoffs, non impressed of 298 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: the entire season at all. So there's absolutely no reason 299 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: for just the general public to like this Eagles team. 300 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 1: So it's a big game for that reason. And second, 301 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 1: it's the last game of of of the four, which 302 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: means that all of the liability going from all the 303 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: other three games, the parley's, the teasers, everything just go 304 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,160 Speaker 1: into this game, which is just gonna make this game 305 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: so much bigger than what it is right now, UH 306 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: and by far will be the biggest of the four games. 307 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: So we're gonna be huge, huge Eagles fan fans. I 308 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: just went to to probably about an hour ago. Actually 309 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: we were at one and a half as well, But 310 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 1: for the reason I just indicated, I said, let maybe 311 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: on the high side, I could actually see this line 312 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: going to two and a half UM pretty pretty soon 313 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 1: during the week. I don't know if it will get 314 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 1: up to three, but you could probably grab a three somewhere. 315 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: If you are an Eagles fan, you want to wait 316 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: until until Sunday to get that three. Oh my god, 317 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: are you kidding me? I am so freaking waiting, you 318 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 1: know what. I know what's interesting. I started the year 319 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: with this project to going eleven five. I ended the 320 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: year going in going eleven and five. And what I 321 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: did at the end of the year that was the 322 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 1: smartest thing I could have done. I waited. I waited 323 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: as long as I possibly could until Sunday morning to 324 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: make some of my bets because I felt so good 325 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,640 Speaker 1: about some lines going in different directions, and it totally 326 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 1: made sense. It totally matters. Get honestly, get the best 327 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: of the number. Scoots. You've been saying it for years. 328 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: I believe it. I'm gonna wait on the Eagles game. 329 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: A bet that game plus the I like it all right, Scoos, 330 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: guess what it is? Time? It is time to play 331 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: a little scooch roulette. Last week? Uh, I believe I 332 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: had the Dolphins last week? Or did you have the Dolphins? 333 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: I had the Dolphins. I forgot who I had. Patrick, 334 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: you were going back and forth. I forgot who you 335 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: had to Patrick, yet I had Houston. That was terrible. 336 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: That was terrible. After your talent yourself, after that huge 337 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: build up, that's who you had last week? All right, scoog, 338 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,640 Speaker 1: guess what you get to go first? You weren't last week. 339 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: I get to go first. I'm going to take the 340 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: Vikings plus that eight point good. You know what. That's 341 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 1: the game that I was least interested in forw me once, 342 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 1: shame on me, through me twice, Shame on you. I 343 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:09,120 Speaker 1: have been fooled by the Texans eight thousand times. Yet 344 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: I can't quit Texas. I'm going with Houston minus two 345 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 1: and a half in Scuci who let round one of 346 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: the playoffs. Okay, Bob Scucci. I want to wish you 347 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: and yours whom I adore, a very happy new year. 348 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: Thanks again for a wonderful, thoughtful, and exciting NFL season 349 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 1: of handicapping and podcasting. I had fun. Happy new Year 350 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: to you and yours and everyone out there. All right, 351 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 1: all right? Coming up right next after this, we are 352 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: going to bring in Simon Hunter, Darn Revel. We're going 353 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 1: to review our attempt to win two hunt to win 354 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 1: one point five million dollars in the west Gate last 355 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: Vegas Super Contest, as promised, bringing back Simon Hunter professional 356 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: better Darren Revel, my colleague, friend and sometimes a nemesis 357 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: at the Action Network. All season long, Simon was on. 358 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 1: One of my favorite stories of my career is the 359 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 1: fact that Simon Hunter just tweeted at me and said, Hey, 360 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: I think I can help you in your super contest. 361 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: I called him up. He has a great story. I'm 362 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: a sucker for stories. I like the guy. We had 363 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: a great conversation. I said, come on the podcast every week. 364 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: Simon took time out of as busy schedule as a 365 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: professional better to come on the podcast and give Darren 366 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: and I expert advice. I got so much positive reaction 367 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 1: from people about Simon, like becoming more and more valuable 368 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: week to week on the podcast. It was fantastic. Um. 369 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: We were trying to win one point five million dollars 370 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: in the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest. It didn't happen. 371 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 1: We tried to cash, just win a little bit of money. 372 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: Winner to the final weekend, probably needed to go for 373 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: one of five and oh we went for in one. 374 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: We finished one and a half games out of the money. 375 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 1: Still a value and effort. We finished forty something like, Um, Simon, listen, 376 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: I like, we owe you so Darren and I owe 377 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: you so much. Gratitude, thank you for doing this all year. 378 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: And now a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. Yeah, man, 379 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: it was really fun and uh, it was funny that 380 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: like I I do it with other pros, like we 381 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: do a super contest together, so like we do a 382 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 1: rotation where like you know, two guys picked two, two 383 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: guys picked one, then one guy picked one and we 384 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: actually finished above us. So it's just funny, like a 385 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 1: group of pros, like the one guy's pro in college, 386 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 1: other guys does pro baseball. Um, we actually beat my group. Um. 387 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 1: And then in Gold we finished like two back, like 388 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: one back of the leader who the guy just had 389 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: a great final week just like us, like he went 390 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: four and one. So I unfortune just like you guys, 391 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: I got bust. I got busted this year for super 392 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 1: contests no money. But that's why we play the game, buddy. 393 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: It's super fun. Now Gold is sort of the elevator, 394 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 1: so people understand Gold is like the next level super contest. Um, 395 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: what's the buy in for that? Right? Where gold is 396 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: it's winner take all, so it's it's a big, big 397 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: money pot where I think it was five thousand this year, 398 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: and basically there's like Adeen of Us. So I would 399 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: say like twenty to thirty guys in it or just 400 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 1: you know Joe Joe, public guys who got money and 401 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: they're just trying to have fun with it. And then 402 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: the rest are just really good pro groups, Like the 403 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 1: group that won this year was a pro group. And 404 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 1: then with the Super Contest, I think the guys that 405 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: won were two buddies from Nebraska. Um. So that's what's 406 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: so great about the Super Contests is that you just 407 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: got to get on a hot run. And just like 408 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 1: that's where we're done this year, and I'm going through 409 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: all our picks. There's just so many games. You go 410 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: back to, wow, we just have gotten two different games, right, 411 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: we would have been in the money. So it's it's 412 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 1: tough when you're that close you don't get anything. It 413 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: is so crushing. And I can think of the two games, Darren, 414 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 1: I want to bring you in for a second. I 415 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: know you're family. I could think of the week, Chad, 416 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about it, go ahead and say it, 417 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: go ahead and do it. There was one week I 418 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: think it was probably Week fourteen, uh, three weeks ago. Yeah, 419 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: and I gave my five picks and you decided you 420 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,919 Speaker 1: were going to say that they were terrible, and you 421 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: didn't horrible or terrible, I'm not sure the exact word. 422 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:44,879 Speaker 1: And they went and they went four and one. So 423 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: you're saying, if I hadn't have judged you that week, 424 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: we would have won. Well, I don't know, because because 425 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 1: because for most for most of you know, this has 426 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 1: been a great experience for me. I mean, this is 427 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: really my first season of betting football like this, both 428 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: on the side and through the Super Contest. And I 429 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:09,239 Speaker 1: was really skeptical of of as a square myself. I 430 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 1: was really skeptical of sharps. And I was like, oh, 431 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,680 Speaker 1: come on, they just they just take the other side 432 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: of the publish just to say they're cool and they're pro. 433 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 1: And and what I learned through Simon and you is 434 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: that the reason why sharps are sharps is not necessarily 435 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: because they know more. It's that when the public is 436 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: on one side, obviously, especially recency bias, there is value 437 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,240 Speaker 1: in the other side, which is often where the sharps are. 438 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:47,200 Speaker 1: And so I understood. I played myself, I was fifty seven, 439 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: you know, on my own, and I really learned about 440 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 1: playing against recency bias that you know, kind of just 441 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,080 Speaker 1: makes the public do what they do. So I learned 442 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: a lot too. So I want to thank you guys. 443 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,479 Speaker 1: You know what I want to say. You want to say, Darren, 444 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 1: how many games did I save you from this year 445 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 1: where we would have been so much worse off? Correct? 446 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 1: Let's talk about it that four one week where I 447 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 1: said they were horrible. Let's talk about all the games. 448 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 1: You're like, oh, I gotta go with this one. I'm like, Darren, 449 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 1: that is that is true? That is true. That is true. 450 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: That is true. You guys want to get through the 451 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:27,879 Speaker 1: list of our best and worst calls? Yes, go all right, 452 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 1: so we'll just start with the worst. We get that 453 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,959 Speaker 1: out of the way. So it is hilarious going through 454 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: these picks now that the season is over. I loved 455 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,640 Speaker 1: the Bengals Week two plus one against San France at home. 456 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: Think about that. I thought I thought there was value 457 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 1: on the Bengals plus one against San France. You know what, though, 458 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: I like looking back looking back, it's not it wasn't 459 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 1: a bad pick. Like the Bengals showed up and week 460 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: you liked them in Week one, right right? And you 461 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,879 Speaker 1: guys wouldn't take it right, and like they actually didn't 462 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 1: play horribly in that game, and like Week one is 463 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,360 Speaker 1: always tricky, but I don't think that was a horrible pick. 464 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: Like looking back, of course, the Bengals literally the worst 465 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 1: thing in the NFL, the Niners one of the two 466 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 1: best teams, and so of course it's horrible you're taking 467 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 1: them at plus one, But looking back, I don't think 468 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 1: that was a bad pick at all. Right, Right, but 469 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 1: I'm just saying, you just love looking back where oh 470 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: my god, i'd same frame minus one against the Bengals, 471 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: Like that's that's like a layoff. So it's just point. 472 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,959 Speaker 1: And then for Darren, Darren had a couple bad plays, 473 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 1: but for the biggest one, we're gonna go with. We 474 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 1: had one week we were five and oh that was 475 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:44,120 Speaker 1: when Darren wasn't on the show, and I like, I love, 476 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,120 Speaker 1: I love the Chargers and they were playing the Green 477 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 1: Bay Packers. At them, I think they're plus three and 478 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 1: a half, and Darren wouldn't wouldn't have it. He said, no, no, no, 479 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: we're not taking the charges here. That's a dumb pick. 480 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 1: Let's put the Bucks in and the Bucks end up 481 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,120 Speaker 1: pushing overtime. So that was instead of having our only 482 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: five and oh, we grew up four oh and one. 483 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 1: All right, So that was the game right there. No, 484 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 1: don't seem here with the same friend. Chad's were sick 485 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 1: of the year by four. It was he loved the 486 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: Panthers plus five and a half versu San France, where 487 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: I think they end up. I did. That was the guy. 488 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: This is funny. That was the Panthers coming out of 489 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,439 Speaker 1: a bye and Kyle Allen had been playing really well 490 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 1: and the Niners were entering into the back half of 491 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 1: the year where they looked a little bit vulnerable, and 492 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: I thought the Panther's defense was better than it was. 493 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey was sort of in the middle of his streak, 494 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: and my logic was, if any team was going to 495 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 1: beat the Niners, because they were undefeated at that point, 496 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: it was going to be this Panthers team, which people 497 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 1: were underestimating. And I believe instead of the Panthers coming 498 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 1: out of that bye and like go out a tear, 499 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: they came out of that by and turned into one 500 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the NFL. Well, it's actually funny. 501 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 1: We actually didn't give up on them, So I'll go 502 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: to our best calls. Literally, I think it's two weeks later, 503 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: which is even now the season is over. You look 504 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: back and it's just crazy. But we we found a 505 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 1: little spot where this this Titans. The Titans have had 506 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: a crazy run here, I think they've won um seven 507 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 1: of nine in the year, and we picked the Panthers 508 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: minus three and a half verst of Titans. That was 509 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: your that was your best call where it was a 510 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: great spot where the Titans had just beaten I think 511 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: the Chiefs they're coming in and the Panthers, who were 512 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 1: looking terrible, that's the last one they've had the whole year. 513 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 1: So we got we had a good spot there. The 514 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 1: Pants clearly have a genius. So Panthers taken out the Titans. 515 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: Who would have thought that? And then for Darren's best call, 516 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: Darren loved, he loved the Jets plus seven versus the 517 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: Cowboys and they end up winning outright. What about Wait, 518 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not sure here to shoot my horn, 519 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 1: but what if out my identification on the fact that 520 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: the Dolphins were two separate teams and that oddsmakers were 521 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: really like not treating them like the second team that 522 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 1: they became under Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'd be like, I got 523 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: like four or five weeks on on the Dolphins being 524 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: the New Age Dolphins. Well, Darren jumped the gun there. 525 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 1: I haven't written down our best teams for us individually 526 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 1: and super contests, so darn picking four picking the Dolphins 527 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 1: and picking against them won seven and one, which is 528 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 1: really really good. In the super contests. My best was 529 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 1: Verson against picking four, and then picking against was the Titans. 530 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: I went six and two, and then Chad was really 531 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 1: good at knowing when to take the Rams and when 532 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 1: to fade the Rams. You went eight and three with 533 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: the Rams this year in our super contests, so we 534 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: were really good. We did really good and when picking 535 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 1: the Rams, and then it's kind of looking at our 536 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 1: worst teams. Um, we could not get right with the Saints. 537 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: We we won three straight with Teddy Bridgewaters, and then 538 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 1: every other time of the Saints we went oh five. 539 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 1: So we went We ended the year three and five 540 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: with the Saints, and I think it's kind of funny 541 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 1: that you look back, I thought we had done horrible 542 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: with the Bucks. We actually finished with a ringing winning record. 543 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 1: Picking with and against the Bucks. We went six and two, 544 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 1: four and against the Bucks. So it's it's one of 545 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: the things where people always saying, why do you guys 546 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 1: take these ugly, ugly teams all this other stuff, But 547 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: like when I went through our numbers, our most profitable 548 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: quarterbacks were Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Listen, 549 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet the NFL, you're gonna bet bad 550 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 1: teams and sketchy quarterbacks. You're not gonna win bet. And 551 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 1: Tom Brady and Drew Brees and sort of the guy 552 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes, you're just not. I learned that. Yeah, 553 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: I learned that for sure. There's no such thing as 554 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 1: a bad game. That those are opportunities, right, And that's 555 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: one of those where early in the season, early in 556 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: the season, it's good to do that. We're back you 557 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: you always want to back usually the better team, Like 558 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 1: I think we had a really bad one. Was like, 559 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 1: oh yeah, the week one we took the Jaguars against 560 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: the Chiefs and everything went wrong that the Chiefs destroyed 561 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 1: the Jaguars. So early in the year you can get 562 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 1: away with taking the good teams. But like like Darren 563 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 1: was saying, when you start seeing the value, like we're 564 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 1: not always gonna take downder dog like we took stand 565 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: friend this week. They were a big public favorite, but 566 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: that's just because that number was good. But there's other 567 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 1: times where there's just so much value, Like just this 568 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 1: past weekend, we were joking about the Dolphins. Why were 569 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 1: the Dolphins fifteen a half point underdog to the Patriots. 570 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 1: So that's one of those where he's right. You can 571 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: spot these values as the year goes along with these 572 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 1: bad teams, well even with the even with the teams 573 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 1: like the Chiefs, I think they opened at seven signing 574 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 1: you and I talked about in the Castle last a week. 575 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 1: I got them at seven and a half. They raced 576 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: up like I don't remember where they closed, but I 577 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 1: know they were closing above nine. Um, not the Titan 578 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,080 Speaker 1: I'm talking about. I'm talking about the Chiefs alright, again 579 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 1: the best of the number that last week. But you're 580 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,479 Speaker 1: right about the Titans too, Like the Titans opened at 581 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 1: three and a half, like by Sunday that game was 582 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 1: at seven and a half and like yeah, and we 583 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,040 Speaker 1: joked about that that like we were unsure to take 584 00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 1: him or not because we didn't know Bill O'Brien was 585 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 1: going to do and they said, what are we thinking? Here? 586 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,480 Speaker 1: Are the Chiefs really gonna lose to the Chargers? So 587 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 1: thank god we put the Titans in the contest, because 588 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 1: I think that line closed at ten minus ten and 589 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 1: a half before kickoff. You know what I also learned 590 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: from you guys. I the way I used to bet 591 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,240 Speaker 1: would be I like this team, and now I know 592 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 1: and this this could be just obvious, but now I know, 593 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 1: and I'm good at staying away if the if the 594 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 1: number you know, moves too much or is not right. 595 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: I think before I said I want to watch this game, 596 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,400 Speaker 1: it's gonna make it more exciting, and so I'm gonna 597 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 1: bet on them. I pay much more attention to movement. 598 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 1: Now look what we did, and that's what things to where. Um, 599 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,920 Speaker 1: you can trust line movement, but sometimes sharps will do 600 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,359 Speaker 1: line movement just a third off steam. Like I might 601 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,319 Speaker 1: be going in early this week. I might have been 602 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: betting the Bills, but I love the Texas, so I 603 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,760 Speaker 1: bet I might just like these other sharps, We're betting 604 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 1: the Bills down to get the Texans up the number 605 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,880 Speaker 1: we want. Yeah, I get I get that. Yeah, you 606 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 1: can't always trust the Steam, but I do I do 607 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 1: think that is a huge part of to like know 608 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 1: what you're looking at. Just was watching that. Boys. Listen, Simon, 609 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,600 Speaker 1: I feel like you and I together we raised a 610 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:50,360 Speaker 1: fine young better in Darren Revel who really came around 611 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,719 Speaker 1: and learned a lot. Simon. Like I said, we are 612 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 1: forever in your debt. We are all the three of us. 613 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 1: Are gonna go celebrate in a couple of weeks. Um, 614 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:00,879 Speaker 1: We're gonna go to dinner. We'll report back. I'm sure 615 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:06,879 Speaker 1: Darren will both instagram it and it um. I want 616 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:08,319 Speaker 1: you boys to have a great new year. It was 617 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 1: a fantastic season. I enjoyed doing it with both of you. 618 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 1: This has been The Favorites from the Action Network. Another 619 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: season in the books. I want to thank my season 620 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:21,480 Speaker 1: long guests, Bob Scucci, Simon Hunter, Darren Revel. You can 621 00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: download the podcast from Apple podcasts from Radio dot Com 622 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 1: search the Favorites wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time, 623 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 1: I love you.