WEBVTT - Surveillance: Iran Has Capable Cruise Missiles, Stavridis Says 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Lee. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.360 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. We 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:30.360 begin with our top story, tensions escalating in the Middle 0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:32.800 East after President Donald Trump ordered an air strike in 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:35.000 a rack, killing one of the rand's most powerful generals. 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:37.800 The U. S. Defense Department writing in a statement, at 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.040 the direction of the President, the U. S. Military has 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.559 taken decisive defensive action to protect US personnel abroad by 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.840 killing Cassem Sulimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:51.560 Corps Coud's Force, a US designated foreign terrorist organization around 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:55.960 supreme leader swiftly responding, writing the following a severe retaliation 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:59.080 awaits murderers who have the blood of Sulimani and that 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.200 of other martyrs on their wicked hands from last night's incident. 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:05.520 We are pleased to join us by Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.640 State Department reporter. He joins us on the phone. Nick, 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:12.440 my first question is decisive action from this administration action? 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:15.319 The President George W. Bush and Barack Obama did not 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:19.959 take Why is this administration chosen to do so? Well? 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:23.279 I'm President Donald Trump has always said that he would 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.920 do what was necessary and respond with the greatest force 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:31.800 possible and the most report force required to protect what 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:35.160 he sees as US interests. The big question that's being 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:37.960 asked right now sort of in the national security community, 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:42.080 is whether he's thought out the consequences. So there's no 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:47.920 doubt among the United States officials. The Customs Suermaney was 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:51.560 a bad guy. He had UM according to the State Department, 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:55.880 was involved or responsible for the deaths of some six 0:01:56.360 --> 0:02:00.360 U S troops in Iraq um And so the question 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.000 now is what is the off ramp? Like Pompeo tweeted 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:05.720 this morning, the UM, the U S is still interested 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:07.920 in de escalation, but no one really knows where we go. 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:10.360 Nick Wadams, is so important that we lead with you 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.800 in this hour because of your experience not only with 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:16.519 Secretary State Pompeo, but also with Secretary Tillerson. This is 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:21.760 an original administration with original responses. How different is this 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:27.799 moment with a unique Trump administration and this Pentagon versus 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:33.560 a more traditional administration and a Pentagon. Well, it's a 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:38.040 great question, because this is how they've shown they do 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:40.880 everything when it comes to foreign policy. I mean, remember 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:43.440 a couple of years ago it just seemed unfathomable that 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:46.320 President Trump would meet the leader of North Korea and 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:49.800 then suddenly there they were shaking hands in Singapore. This 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:51.880 is a This is a president who puts a lot 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:55.760 of stock in his own ability to achieve deals. And uh, yeah, 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:57.640 but Nick, he's not going to do the art of 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.200 Nicki's not I don't mean to interrupt, Nick, but you're 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:03.080 the pro with this. How do you do an art 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:07.480 of the deal with a nation, a people who's, from 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:11.760 what I can tell, war hero has just been murdered. 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:14.359 I mean, that's how they perceive it in Kerman to 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:18.320 bridge in Tehran, Isn't it right? And that is the 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:22.600 central flaw of the argument and the big question going forward. Uh. 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:26.120 The US claims that this was a defensive action and 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.920 that uh, it's still interested in de escalation. But obviously, 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:33.240 as you guys mentioned, the response from Iran right now 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:35.960 is there is absolutely no interest. And that's been the 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:38.880 problem bedeviling Donald Trump for the last two years. He 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:42.120 got out of the Iron nuclear deal, and then he 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.280 said he wanted a deal without preconditions. That Run so 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:48.160 far has had absolutely no willingness to play ball. So 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.520 it looks like the president's strategy so far toward I 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.000 RUN is not working. Well, let's talk about the strategy 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.960 in the broader region. Two events over the last twelve 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.640 months that stand out for me the attack on Saudi 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:03.320 oil facilities back in September the United States, the Trump 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.280 administration chose to do nothing. Then we had the Trump 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.400 administration pulling out of Syria, Russia moved in the United 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.000 States chose to do essentially nothing. Nick, what was the 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.880 red line that has been crossed in the last week 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:19.240 that has made the United States push forward with decisive action? Well, 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:24.240 the administration has always said that attacks on US troops, uh, 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:27.120 would be something that was the red line, that that 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:31.640 would provoke what Secretary Pompeo called a decisive response. Uh. 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:35.000 You saw that a few days ago when the US 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:41.760 killed two militia members. UM. And then obviously today we're 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:45.360 seeing the true limits of what the administration means by 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:48.359 a decisive response. UM. You know, the big question also 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.320 is whether they felt provoked into this action because of 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.560 the criticism that the administration faced over the fact that 0:04:54.560 --> 0:04:57.159 it really hadn't done something. And of course President Trump's 0:04:57.160 --> 0:05:00.200 defenders will say, well, look, we're not the one We're 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:02.760 not the ones who are instigating here. This is a 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:07.920 response to sustained aggression by the Iranian forces and something 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:11.600 that they deserved and frankly had come. Nick aadums, thank 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:14.160 you so much, greatly appreciated with the news. With true 0:05:14.200 --> 0:05:32.880 expertise on are the U. S. State Department, Johanna Kristell 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:35.680 bring in our next guess. Emrita send Edward Morrisset's City 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.880 Group publishes moments ago and he says this news of 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:41.280 a rock ship push oil price is higher. He says 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:45.760 obviously through seventy barrel, but very importantly at Morris, with 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:50.000 his knowledge of oil and also Saudi and the geopolitics 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.279 of the Middle East, suggests later in two thousand twenty, 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:56.440 there would be mitigating factors to drive oil lower. We 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.039 turn to the old market. Now we do that with 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:02.000 Embrita send chief oil analysts, Energy aspects. I'm really fantastic 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.240 to have you with us. Tremendously difficult to put a 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.440 price on geopolitical risk. We go back to September where 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:10.320 drones were used to attack Saudi Aramco facility. September four, 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.880 Oil closed exactly where it was the Friday before the attacks. 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:16.240 By the end of the month, many people looking at 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.520 this situation and wondering at what point does this move 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:20.839 begin to fade and ready to How different is this 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:25.080 situation that we wake up to this Friday morning. Yeah, 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.200 and I think that's exactly the question to ask. But 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:30.800 the difference is, um, the red line was breached, which 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:33.080 is attack on the US personal and US facilities, and 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.440 I think that's why there was an attack, right whereas 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:37.960 with the attack in Saudi Arabia it was made very 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:39.560 clear that the US is not going to get involved. 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.760 Um And I think that's where the differences. But also 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:46.279 remember we haven't seen that kind of a movie. Was 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:47.840 like a ten dollar move under the Southy. This has 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:49.880 been more of a three to four percent move. The 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:53.400 markets already tied. The The issue in many ways is 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.360 that this is going to get It's going to get 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.839 paid out over a long period of time. Iran isn't reckless, 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.560 They're not going to come back tomorrow, and it's not 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.560 gonna be retaliation just yet, right it is going to 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:04.719 get played out over time, and the risk is of 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:08.279 victarian violence in Iraq, and then it becomes a question 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:11.440 of do you start getting uh production affected in the region. 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:13.920 You've already seen foreign workers being evacuated. I in US, 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:16.400 foreign workers are being evacuated. What does it mean for 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:19.800 long term production in the country. UM, you know, say, 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:22.120 let's who we disagree on whether the market is tight 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.720 or not. Would you really be short oil over here? No? 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:28.120 I think that's where Uh. That's kind of the very 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.160 the clear difference. Also because this is coming out of 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:32.480 time when the Saudis have clearly said that they will 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:35.960 be supporting the floor at sixty and so they've card 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:39.320 production even more so, it's it's quite a different backdrop 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:41.920 and taking you've touched on Iran's response. They say they 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.320 will respond, let's talk about it in greater detail. The 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:46.560 pressure within a RAND to respond will be sky higher. 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:50.080 As Tom points out, this particular general incredibly popular in 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.880 the country. The question is how. The question is where 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:57.840 do you see them frustrating oil infrastructure, delivery channels the 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.520 straight of Homer's do you see that happening in the 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:04.880 coming months. I think they'll absolutely keep all their options open. 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:07.280 But if the red line, which again in some ways 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:09.840 you know the the Iranians had been poking to see 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.200 where the redline was for the US. It wasn't the 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:16.440 drone strike, it wasn't really a huge attack on one 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:19.480 of its allies, but it was very much on direct 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.040 US personnel. If they know that's the red line, they 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:25.160 probably are not going to go for anything similar there again, right, 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:28.520 But yes, attacks on other countries oil and gas facilities 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:30.520 or on the straits of foremost on shipping, which we've 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:32.679 already seen by the way, over the course of the 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.840 last year, absolutely very possible. But again I keep coming 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:37.400 back to Iraq. I think there's going to be a 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.680 lot of pressure UH on Iraq and particularly kind of 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:45.360 to push out the pro US forces from Iraq. I think, unfortunately, 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:49.719 Iraq could just become the battleground and the Gubolito. We've 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.160 heard that from others. Emridson, thank you so much for 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:56.000 your cute analysis this morning, and she was brilliant earlier 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:59.120 on the distinction of the heavy crude of Iran and 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:17.640 how that folds it the Asian consumption of oil. Secretary 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.600 Pompeio speaking to Fox News saying it Running and Leadership 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:23.560 understands the president will take action. The US needed to 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:27.520 take action to restore a deterrence. The president says the 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:32.040 Solemnani strike decision was necessary. This according to Secretary Pompeio 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:35.080 just moments ago on Fox News that second headline, Tom, 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:38.800 the United States needed to take action to restore a deterrence. 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:40.839 You raise your group and in the last twenty four 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:43.520 hours saying the following, Running and leaders can no longer 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:45.920 assume that Trump is a paper tiger who will not 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:50.240 take decisive and risky military action. This is key, many excuses, 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:52.960 many reasons across the President's desk in the last twelve 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:57.040 months to confront Iran. He hasn't taken the opportunity. Many 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:59.640 people out there today may suggest he had a little choice. 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.400 I guess. On the phone. Mark Champion Bloomberg, senior reporter 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:05.360 for international affairs in London, joined us on the phone 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.840 right now. Mark talked to me about that the need 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:11.880 to restore a deterrence the president, who was increasingly being 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:15.920 viewed as a paper tiger. Your thoughts on that issue, Yes, 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:18.200 I think it is the critical issue because you know, 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:21.880 here are the alternatives. One is that what happened recently 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:25.640 in Iran. And remember that it was Iranian bank militias 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:31.239 in Iraq that attacked the US base and killed US contractor. 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:36.040 And then it was militia's again Iranian bank that attacked 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:41.199 the US embassy um in response to U s retaliation 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.160 which had killed some of their members. So that was 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:47.640 the background. So the question here is either what the 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.559 US was trying to do and that those events provided 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:54.679 the trigger for it was to restore belief that it 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:57.280 was willing to take military action in addition to the 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:01.520 maximum pressure economic UM policy that it has had in 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:06.120 trying to pressure the Iranian economy, or one or both 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.600 sides actually want a war UM. And you know, I 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.280 think that's correct. The analysis correct is that they don't 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:15.920 want a war. Neither side wants a war, but the 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:19.719 US wanted to draw a line where many of its 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:23.200 allies in the region, Saudi and so on for some 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:25.439 time have been saying the US was not drawing a line. 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:29.600 Mark You've got such expertise on the depth of these 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:36.640 ancient debates frame or triangulate the United States Iranian battle 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.319 going back the nine for some of US, with the 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:44.959 Shiai Sunni battle which goes back centuries and centuries, which 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:50.560 is more important to Tehran. Uh, you know, one would 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:52.640 it's it's a it's a tough question to pose in 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:56.679 that sense. UM. You know, the obviously there is these 0:11:56.720 --> 0:12:01.200 are two parallel narratives. You're absolutely right, UM. And the 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:06.120 you know, the Iranian relationship to the US UM is 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:11.280 very has been very dominant ever since nineteen seventy nine. UM. 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:15.240 And uh, you know, it is no coincidence that the 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:19.520 US has been a close ally of Iran's, the Iranian 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:22.880 regime's main sunny rivals in the region. So the two 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:26.400 things become very intertwined. UM. And it's kind of hard 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:28.160 to pick them apart. You know, just to take an 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:33.160 example right now here, you have the Iranian regime UM 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:37.160 trying to decide how it will respond to the US 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.840 in a US action. But among the options that it 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:43.680 has there are, you know, not just lobbying a ballistic 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:47.640 missile at one of the American bases in the region, 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.559 which is something that the you know, the the Iranian 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.600 officials have said they can do, UM, but much more 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:56.480 likely is that they use some of their militias in 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.880 order to attack the interests of the US and it's 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.960 allies in the region, the militias that have been working 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:07.360 with them in Syria, in Yemen, in Afghanistan, and which 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:13.400 Hassim Sonimney was absolutely instrumental in both putting together and 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.559 using what Markus you point out. At the epicenter of 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.840 the effort to push a sphere of influence in the 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.880 region for the Shia it's from Iran was Kasan Sulimani. 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.120 That doesn't end with his death, though, does it, Mark 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.199 And I just wonder what the next steps the Iranians 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:30.240 will take to maintain that sphere of influence in the region. 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:32.959 Many people will remember just a week ago we had 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:36.240 naval exercises in the Gulf of a Mom between Russia, 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.440 China and Iran. What happens with some of these key 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:44.560 allies of Iran, Yes, um, So, on the one hand, 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:48.120 you're you're absolutely right, because son of Money dies, that 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.240 does not mean that everything that he's built suddenly goes away. 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.360 It doesn't, and those remain the primary tools that are 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.200 available to the Iranian regime as they decided on what 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.920 to do. And then the secondary which is also an 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.720 absolutely key question. You know that you know a couple 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:05.880 of people have already said, you know, this is a 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:09.080 bit reminiscent. This assassination of such an iconic figure in 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.600 Iran is a bit reminiscent of what happened in nineteen 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:16.120 fourteen with the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the Austrian Prince, 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:19.960 and that of course began, um the World War One. 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.720 But the difference is the question there is, so what 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.560 do the other great powers do? Um? And that goes 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.880 directly to your question, what about Russia and China um? 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:33.040 And you know, obviously we don't we don't know exactly 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.760 the answer. But my very strong uh, you know, guests 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:40.080 would be or that this is not the same as 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:44.160 nineteen fourteen. Neither the US nor Iran actually wants a war, 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.600 and neither China nor Russia would be willing to go 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.240 to war with the US in you know, on Iran's behalf, 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.840 so completely different. Is usually must expand the conversation with 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:56.800 Mark Champion, and I'm sure we'll do that in the 0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:00.680 coming hours. Thinking is a bloomberg opinion of in Londard 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:17.800 Senior Middle East corresponded. What we'd like to do is 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:22.000 spend the entire half hour rather with James Travidez. He's 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:24.880 the dean, former dean, I should say of the Fletcher 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.960 School at Tufts University. I can say he's former Supreme 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:32.640 Commander for NATO, but John Farrell, that doesn't matter because 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.200 what he really is is a former combat veteran on 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:40.040 destroyers and on fleets as well. A Mustavides thank you 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.120 so much for joining us. I want you to speak 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.720 to the people listening to our show coast to coast 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:49.080 who have family in the military. These people are out 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.920 on platforms, they're in the Army, the Navy, the Marines 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:56.560 at all. At what risk is our military this morning? Well, 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.200 as usual, Tom, there's good news and bad news here. 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.600 I'll start with the obvious bad news, which is that 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:08.240 we have assassinated a leading Iranian political figure and there 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.520 will be repercussion. So Iran is going to lash out 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.000 and that will put our troops at risk and to 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.280 some degree, their family. Here's the good news, Tom, our 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:21.000 military is ready for this. Iran does not have the 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:24.760 element of surprise here. At every base around the world. 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:29.280 Security is increasing. We're moving missile defense systems in place. 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.080 We're ready, but it is going to be a very 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.200 challenging time ahead. So my my word for all of 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:39.479 our military families, especially and certainly our troops were deployed 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:43.840 and they know this is be ready because Iran will respond. 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.280 What is so important here, and I go back to 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.040 the Sheffield and the Argentinean War, is there's all these 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:52.200 big plans and all of this work of big budgets 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:56.160 and a pentagon in that and in it can be 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:59.680 you know, one exo can be one excess at missile 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:03.880 uh which was the feeling done? And that's the nakedness, 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.840 if you will, of the American public. How do we 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:10.160 defend at the Persian Gulf gap? How do we defend 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:14.879 on a geography where Iran could respond? We've got to 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:18.359 take a three sixty view here, Tom. In other words, 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:22.480 there's no silver bullet. No one missile defense system is 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.719 going to save you. No one intelligence capability is going 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:31.760 to give you perfect knowledge. No one defensive system against 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:35.120 an incoming torpedo in the water is going to be perfect. 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:38.440 But if you put all of those elements together, you've 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:41.680 got a very good chance of defending yourself. And this 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.760 is both at sea and ashore and in the air. 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.520 And again we're quite capable of this. I think we 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:52.320 can handle just about anything Iran throws out. Tom let 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.479 me tell you one thing I worry about the most. 0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:59.679 It's cyber and cyber security. Here, I think our level 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:03.840 of preparation is not as high relative to all the 0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:09.040 obvious kinetic military effects that Iran could launch against us. 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.600 So for all who are involved in the cyber world today, 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:16.800 heads up, they will use cyber against US. Admiral Jonathan here, 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.520 let's explore that just a couple of steps further. Some 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:21.679 of the American press, in fact, the international press, may 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:25.040 wish to paint Iran as some kind of reckless rogue state. 0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:28.920 They're incredibly calculating foreign policy is wealth thought out. And 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:30.520 I'm just wondering if you can take us into the 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.760 mind of the government with within Iran right now, the 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.160 Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the thoughts, the process they'll be going 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:42.560 through to calculate their next step, their response. Indeed, let's 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:45.960 look at what Iran's options are, and so in the 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:49.680 Iranian equivalent of the Pentagon this evening, it is evening 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.679 there they will be looking at attacking our troops in 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:58.000 Afghanistan and Western Afghanistan. They will look at perhaps going 0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:01.720 after that embassy in Baghdad again, although I think it's 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:05.520 unlikely because it's now well defended. Still look got strikes 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:10.199 against Israel. They will look at cyber attacks against the 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:14.399 US mainland as well as our command and control overseas. 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.600 And lastly, I think they'll look very seriously at the 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:21.639 Persian Gulf at raritime options. Well, I'm gonna get the 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:23.719 map out here, and this is something folks, I'm as 0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:26.520 weak on our goldar Montevalis helped me so much with 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:30.920 a fabric of the large geography of Iran atmalstvenis your 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:34.960 expert at this. There's Tehran in four or five miles south. 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:37.320 There's Kerman k e R m a n. We've seen 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:40.880 that image this morning of the people of Kerman silently 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:43.600 in the streets, standing in mourning. And then if you 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:47.080 go three hundred miles directly south, you get to your 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:51.440 Persian Golf. It's distant from Tehran, but it's not, is it? 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:56.840 It is not? And of course the Iranian military has 0:19:57.080 --> 0:20:01.440 very significant basis book inside the Persian Gulf. And then 0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:03.879 you go through the straight up cor moves into the 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.720 North Indian Ocean tom as you can see on your map, 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:10.400 and that is where the most significant of the Iranian 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:15.199 naval bases are and by the way, Iran, China and 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:19.119 Russia have just concluded a two week naval exercise in 0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:23.800 the Northern Indian Ocean, so the Iranian fleet is preparing 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:26.520 to move to see. I think we will see a 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:29.560 potential response from them. What I know, Jonas again and 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:31.720 here again James Tavitis with us, and we'll be with 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.760 us through much of his half. Our amials Trevitas. When 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:40.119 you say the Iranian fleet, what is that? It's um 0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:43.280 not remotely capable in the way that the U. S 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:45.320 Fleet is. Tom, But I'll tell you three things that 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:49.000 are pretty good at They have diesel submarines which are 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:53.280 very quiet and capable of operating in the relatively shallow 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:57.119 waters of the Persian Gulf in the North Indian Ocean. Secondly, 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.960 they have small craft that they can deploy high numbers 0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:05.000 in what are called swarm attacks. Uh. They have rocket 0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:07.719 fired missiles on them, and you can send twenty of 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.840 them to attack a big navy destroyer and that can 0:21:10.920 --> 0:21:14.040 be a problem. Third finally, Tom, they have very capable 0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:17.520 cruise missiles which they can launch both from at sea 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:22.160 and from their naval platforms. So they're certainly not the U. S. Navy. 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:25.520 They're not ten feet tall, but they can inflict real 0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:28.720 damage on a US warship. We ought to be very 0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:31.880 concerned about that. As the next few days unfolds, Adam, 0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:34.040 you mentioned the wall games taken place in the Gulf 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.520 of a Mon in the last week between Russia, China 0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:39.199 and Iran. What do you expect the response of Russian 0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:43.600 Shota to be in the coming days. They will undoubtedly 0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:47.879 condemn this attack. They'll portray it as an assassination of 0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:52.679 a political figure. They'll ignore the fact that Sulamani was 0:21:52.760 --> 0:21:57.040 not only the Machiavelli, the cardinal richelieu of violence in 0:21:57.080 --> 0:22:02.440 this Iranian hierarchy, but that he was also personally involved. 0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:05.720 He literally has blood on his hands. They'll ignore all that, 0:22:06.119 --> 0:22:10.440 and they'll portray this as a rogue US military operation. 0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:15.080 I will say, um, we are to recognize that Sulimani 0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:18.959 was deadly and evil and taking his peace off the 0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:22.800 chessboard is tactically a good thing. What we have yet 0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:26.160 to do is lay out a strategy to deal with 0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:29.800 the after effects and the longer term issues here. Well, 0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:33.520 let's talk about that. The opportunity to take down General 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:37.760 Slimani existed in the president of the presidency of George W. Bush, 0:22:37.760 --> 0:22:41.439 the presidency of Barack Obama as well. Those opportunities weren't taken. 0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:46.679 Admiral why not because of the sense that that would 0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:53.200 escalate a direct military confrontation between the US and Iran. 0:22:53.359 --> 0:22:57.760 So that begs the question why now, and my guests 0:22:58.119 --> 0:23:01.399 is that within the White House the calculus was made 0:23:01.920 --> 0:23:06.920 that at this moment they have overwhelming evidence that Sulimani 0:23:07.200 --> 0:23:11.600 was behind the rocket attacks that killed Contractor a couple 0:23:11.600 --> 0:23:14.639 of days ago, that he was behind the attacks on 0:23:14.720 --> 0:23:18.480 our embassy. He became a target of opportunity. His level 0:23:18.520 --> 0:23:21.760 of threat and level of violence has only increased since 0:23:21.800 --> 0:23:24.800 the days of both Bush and Obama. I think those 0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:28.679 three things came together and the administration, as the words 0:23:28.760 --> 0:23:32.000 go in top Gun had a shot Maverick and they 0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:35.800 took it. So you can argue with whether or not 0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:39.560 that is pouring gasoline on a smoldering fire. I think 0:23:39.600 --> 0:23:44.440 it is. On the other hand, tactically we are ahead 0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:48.760 for taking out Sulimani. Comgically, we still have work to do. 0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:51.560 I've been talking to Admirals tor Vetus about the military 0:23:51.600 --> 0:23:55.080 impacts of the killing of this general of Iran, and 0:23:55.119 --> 0:23:58.359 it has been absolutely brilliant, particularly admalster Vitus's comments on 0:23:58.400 --> 0:24:01.119 what the Iranian navy can do at the Gulf of 0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:04.280