1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. We 5 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: begin with our top story, tensions escalating in the Middle 6 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: East after President Donald Trump ordered an air strike in 7 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: a rack, killing one of the rand's most powerful generals. 8 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 1: The U. S. Defense Department writing in a statement, at 9 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: the direction of the President, the U. S. Military has 10 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: taken decisive defensive action to protect US personnel abroad by 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 1: killing Cassem Sulimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard 12 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: Corps Coud's Force, a US designated foreign terrorist organization around 13 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: supreme leader swiftly responding, writing the following a severe retaliation 14 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: awaits murderers who have the blood of Sulimani and that 15 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: of other martyrs on their wicked hands from last night's incident. 16 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: We are pleased to join us by Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg 17 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: State Department reporter. He joins us on the phone. Nick, 18 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: my first question is decisive action from this administration action? 19 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 1: The President George W. Bush and Barack Obama did not 20 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: take Why is this administration chosen to do so? Well? 21 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,279 Speaker 1: I'm President Donald Trump has always said that he would 22 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: do what was necessary and respond with the greatest force 23 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: possible and the most report force required to protect what 24 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: he sees as US interests. The big question that's being 25 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: asked right now sort of in the national security community, 26 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: is whether he's thought out the consequences. So there's no 27 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: doubt among the United States officials. The Customs Suermaney was 28 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: a bad guy. He had UM according to the State Department, 29 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: was involved or responsible for the deaths of some six 30 00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: U S troops in Iraq um And so the question 31 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: now is what is the off ramp? Like Pompeo tweeted 32 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: this morning, the UM, the U S is still interested 33 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: in de escalation, but no one really knows where we go. 34 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: Nick Wadams, is so important that we lead with you 35 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: in this hour because of your experience not only with 36 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,519 Speaker 1: Secretary State Pompeo, but also with Secretary Tillerson. This is 37 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: an original administration with original responses. How different is this 38 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 1: moment with a unique Trump administration and this Pentagon versus 39 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: a more traditional administration and a Pentagon. Well, it's a 40 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: great question, because this is how they've shown they do 41 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: everything when it comes to foreign policy. I mean, remember 42 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: a couple of years ago it just seemed unfathomable that 43 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: President Trump would meet the leader of North Korea and 44 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: then suddenly there they were shaking hands in Singapore. This 45 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: is a This is a president who puts a lot 46 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: of stock in his own ability to achieve deals. And uh, yeah, 47 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: but Nick, he's not going to do the art of 48 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: Nicki's not I don't mean to interrupt, Nick, but you're 49 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: the pro with this. How do you do an art 50 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: of the deal with a nation, a people who's, from 51 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: what I can tell, war hero has just been murdered. 52 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 1: I mean, that's how they perceive it in Kerman to 53 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: bridge in Tehran, Isn't it right? And that is the 54 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: central flaw of the argument and the big question going forward. Uh. 55 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 1: The US claims that this was a defensive action and 56 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: that uh, it's still interested in de escalation. But obviously, 57 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: as you guys mentioned, the response from Iran right now 58 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 1: is there is absolutely no interest. And that's been the 59 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: problem bedeviling Donald Trump for the last two years. He 60 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: got out of the Iron nuclear deal, and then he 61 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: said he wanted a deal without preconditions. That Run so 62 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: far has had absolutely no willingness to play ball. So 63 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: it looks like the president's strategy so far toward I 64 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: RUN is not working. Well, let's talk about the strategy 65 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: in the broader region. Two events over the last twelve 66 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 1: months that stand out for me the attack on Saudi 67 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: oil facilities back in September the United States, the Trump 68 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: administration chose to do nothing. Then we had the Trump 69 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: administration pulling out of Syria, Russia moved in the United 70 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: States chose to do essentially nothing. Nick, what was the 71 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: red line that has been crossed in the last week 72 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: that has made the United States push forward with decisive action? Well, 73 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: the administration has always said that attacks on US troops, uh, 74 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: would be something that was the red line, that that 75 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: would provoke what Secretary Pompeo called a decisive response. Uh. 76 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: You saw that a few days ago when the US 77 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: killed two militia members. UM. And then obviously today we're 78 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 1: seeing the true limits of what the administration means by 79 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 1: a decisive response. UM. You know, the big question also 80 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: is whether they felt provoked into this action because of 81 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: the criticism that the administration faced over the fact that 82 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 1: it really hadn't done something. And of course President Trump's 83 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: defenders will say, well, look, we're not the one We're 84 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: not the ones who are instigating here. This is a 85 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: response to sustained aggression by the Iranian forces and something 86 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 1: that they deserved and frankly had come. Nick aadums, thank 87 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: you so much, greatly appreciated with the news. With true 88 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: expertise on are the U. S. State Department, Johanna Kristell 89 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: bring in our next guess. Emrita send Edward Morrisset's City 90 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: Group publishes moments ago and he says this news of 91 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: a rock ship push oil price is higher. He says 92 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: obviously through seventy barrel, but very importantly at Morris, with 93 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: his knowledge of oil and also Saudi and the geopolitics 94 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: of the Middle East, suggests later in two thousand twenty, 95 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: there would be mitigating factors to drive oil lower. We 96 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 1: turn to the old market. Now we do that with 97 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: Embrita send chief oil analysts, Energy aspects. I'm really fantastic 98 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: to have you with us. Tremendously difficult to put a 99 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: price on geopolitical risk. We go back to September where 100 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 1: drones were used to attack Saudi Aramco facility. September four, 101 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: Oil closed exactly where it was the Friday before the attacks. 102 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: By the end of the month, many people looking at 103 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: this situation and wondering at what point does this move 104 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: begin to fade and ready to How different is this 105 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: situation that we wake up to this Friday morning. Yeah, 106 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: and I think that's exactly the question to ask. But 107 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: the difference is, um, the red line was breached, which 108 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: is attack on the US personal and US facilities, and 109 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: I think that's why there was an attack, right whereas 110 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: with the attack in Saudi Arabia it was made very 111 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: clear that the US is not going to get involved. 112 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: Um And I think that's where the differences. But also 113 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 1: remember we haven't seen that kind of a movie. Was 114 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 1: like a ten dollar move under the Southy. This has 115 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 1: been more of a three to four percent move. The 116 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: markets already tied. The The issue in many ways is 117 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: that this is going to get It's going to get 118 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 1: paid out over a long period of time. Iran isn't reckless, 119 00:06:57,839 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: They're not going to come back tomorrow, and it's not 120 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: gonna be retaliation just yet, right it is going to 121 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 1: get played out over time, and the risk is of 122 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: victarian violence in Iraq, and then it becomes a question 123 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: of do you start getting uh production affected in the region. 124 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: You've already seen foreign workers being evacuated. I in US, 125 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: foreign workers are being evacuated. What does it mean for 126 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: long term production in the country. UM, you know, say, 127 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: let's who we disagree on whether the market is tight 128 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: or not. Would you really be short oil over here? No? 129 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: I think that's where Uh. That's kind of the very 130 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: the clear difference. Also because this is coming out of 131 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: time when the Saudis have clearly said that they will 132 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: be supporting the floor at sixty and so they've card 133 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: production even more so, it's it's quite a different backdrop 134 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: and taking you've touched on Iran's response. They say they 135 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: will respond, let's talk about it in greater detail. The 136 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: pressure within a RAND to respond will be sky higher. 137 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: As Tom points out, this particular general incredibly popular in 138 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: the country. The question is how. The question is where 139 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: do you see them frustrating oil infrastructure, delivery channels the 140 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: straight of Homer's do you see that happening in the 141 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: coming months. I think they'll absolutely keep all their options open. 142 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: But if the red line, which again in some ways 143 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: you know the the Iranians had been poking to see 144 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: where the redline was for the US. It wasn't the 145 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: drone strike, it wasn't really a huge attack on one 146 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: of its allies, but it was very much on direct 147 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: US personnel. If they know that's the red line, they 148 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: probably are not going to go for anything similar there again, right, 149 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: But yes, attacks on other countries oil and gas facilities 150 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: or on the straits of foremost on shipping, which we've 151 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 1: already seen by the way, over the course of the 152 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: last year, absolutely very possible. But again I keep coming 153 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: back to Iraq. I think there's going to be a 154 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: lot of pressure UH on Iraq and particularly kind of 155 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: to push out the pro US forces from Iraq. I think, unfortunately, 156 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,719 Speaker 1: Iraq could just become the battleground and the Gubolito. We've 157 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: heard that from others. Emridson, thank you so much for 158 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: your cute analysis this morning, and she was brilliant earlier 159 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 1: on the distinction of the heavy crude of Iran and 160 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: how that folds it the Asian consumption of oil. Secretary 161 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: Pompeio speaking to Fox News saying it Running and Leadership 162 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: understands the president will take action. The US needed to 163 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: take action to restore a deterrence. The president says the 164 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: Solemnani strike decision was necessary. This according to Secretary Pompeio 165 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: just moments ago on Fox News that second headline, Tom, 166 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: the United States needed to take action to restore a deterrence. 167 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:40,839 Speaker 1: You raise your group and in the last twenty four 168 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: hours saying the following, Running and leaders can no longer 169 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: assume that Trump is a paper tiger who will not 170 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: take decisive and risky military action. This is key, many excuses, 171 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: many reasons across the President's desk in the last twelve 172 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: months to confront Iran. He hasn't taken the opportunity. Many 173 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: people out there today may suggest he had a little choice. 174 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: I guess. On the phone. Mark Champion Bloomberg, senior reporter 175 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: for international affairs in London, joined us on the phone 176 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 1: right now. Mark talked to me about that the need 177 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: to restore a deterrence the president, who was increasingly being 178 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: viewed as a paper tiger. Your thoughts on that issue, Yes, 179 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 1: I think it is the critical issue because you know, 180 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: here are the alternatives. One is that what happened recently 181 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: in Iran. And remember that it was Iranian bank militias 182 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:31,239 Speaker 1: in Iraq that attacked the US base and killed US contractor. 183 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: And then it was militia's again Iranian bank that attacked 184 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:41,199 Speaker 1: the US embassy um in response to U s retaliation 185 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: which had killed some of their members. So that was 186 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 1: the background. So the question here is either what the 187 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: US was trying to do and that those events provided 188 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 1: the trigger for it was to restore belief that it 189 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: was willing to take military action in addition to the 190 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: maximum pressure economic UM policy that it has had in 191 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: trying to pressure the Iranian economy, or one or both 192 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: sides actually want a war UM. And you know, I 193 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: think that's correct. The analysis correct is that they don't 194 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: want a war. Neither side wants a war, but the 195 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 1: US wanted to draw a line where many of its 196 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 1: allies in the region, Saudi and so on for some 197 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 1: time have been saying the US was not drawing a line. 198 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 1: Mark You've got such expertise on the depth of these 199 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: ancient debates frame or triangulate the United States Iranian battle 200 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 1: going back the nine for some of US, with the 201 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 1: Shiai Sunni battle which goes back centuries and centuries, which 202 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 1: is more important to Tehran. Uh, you know, one would 203 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: it's it's a it's a tough question to pose in 204 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 1: that sense. UM. You know, the obviously there is these 205 00:11:56,720 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: are two parallel narratives. You're absolutely right, UM. And the 206 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: you know, the Iranian relationship to the US UM is 207 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: very has been very dominant ever since nineteen seventy nine. UM. 208 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: And uh, you know, it is no coincidence that the 209 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: US has been a close ally of Iran's, the Iranian 210 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: regime's main sunny rivals in the region. So the two 211 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: things become very intertwined. UM. And it's kind of hard 212 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: to pick them apart. You know, just to take an 213 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: example right now here, you have the Iranian regime UM 214 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: trying to decide how it will respond to the US 215 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: in a US action. But among the options that it 216 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 1: has there are, you know, not just lobbying a ballistic 217 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: missile at one of the American bases in the region, 218 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 1: which is something that the you know, the the Iranian 219 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: officials have said they can do, UM, but much more 220 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: likely is that they use some of their militias in 221 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 1: order to attack the interests of the US and it's 222 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 1: allies in the region, the militias that have been working 223 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: with them in Syria, in Yemen, in Afghanistan, and which 224 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: Hassim Sonimney was absolutely instrumental in both putting together and 225 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 1: using what Markus you point out. At the epicenter of 226 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: the effort to push a sphere of influence in the 227 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: region for the Shia it's from Iran was Kasan Sulimani. 228 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: That doesn't end with his death, though, does it, Mark 229 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,199 Speaker 1: And I just wonder what the next steps the Iranians 230 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: will take to maintain that sphere of influence in the region. 231 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,959 Speaker 1: Many people will remember just a week ago we had 232 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: naval exercises in the Gulf of a Mom between Russia, 233 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: China and Iran. What happens with some of these key 234 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 1: allies of Iran, Yes, um, So, on the one hand, 235 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: you're you're absolutely right, because son of Money dies, that 236 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 1: does not mean that everything that he's built suddenly goes away. 237 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: It doesn't, and those remain the primary tools that are 238 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: available to the Iranian regime as they decided on what 239 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 1: to do. And then the secondary which is also an 240 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 1: absolutely key question. You know that you know a couple 241 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: of people have already said, you know, this is a 242 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 1: bit reminiscent. This assassination of such an iconic figure in 243 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: Iran is a bit reminiscent of what happened in nineteen 244 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: fourteen with the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the Austrian Prince, 245 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: and that of course began, um the World War One. 246 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: But the difference is the question there is, so what 247 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: do the other great powers do? Um? And that goes 248 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: directly to your question, what about Russia and China um? 249 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: And you know, obviously we don't we don't know exactly 250 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: the answer. But my very strong uh, you know, guests 251 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: would be or that this is not the same as 252 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: nineteen fourteen. Neither the US nor Iran actually wants a war, 253 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: and neither China nor Russia would be willing to go 254 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: to war with the US in you know, on Iran's behalf, 255 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: so completely different. Is usually must expand the conversation with 256 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: Mark Champion, and I'm sure we'll do that in the 257 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: coming hours. Thinking is a bloomberg opinion of in Londard 258 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: Senior Middle East corresponded. What we'd like to do is 259 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: spend the entire half hour rather with James Travidez. He's 260 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: the dean, former dean, I should say of the Fletcher 261 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: School at Tufts University. I can say he's former Supreme 262 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: Commander for NATO, but John Farrell, that doesn't matter because 263 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: what he really is is a former combat veteran on 264 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: destroyers and on fleets as well. A Mustavides thank you 265 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. I want you to speak 266 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: to the people listening to our show coast to coast 267 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: who have family in the military. These people are out 268 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: on platforms, they're in the Army, the Navy, the Marines 269 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: at all. At what risk is our military this morning? Well, 270 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: as usual, Tom, there's good news and bad news here. 271 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: I'll start with the obvious bad news, which is that 272 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: we have assassinated a leading Iranian political figure and there 273 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: will be repercussion. So Iran is going to lash out 274 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: and that will put our troops at risk and to 275 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: some degree, their family. Here's the good news, Tom, our 276 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: military is ready for this. Iran does not have the 277 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: element of surprise here. At every base around the world. 278 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: Security is increasing. We're moving missile defense systems in place. 279 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 1: We're ready, but it is going to be a very 280 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: challenging time ahead. So my my word for all of 281 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,479 Speaker 1: our military families, especially and certainly our troops were deployed 282 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: and they know this is be ready because Iran will respond. 283 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: What is so important here, and I go back to 284 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: the Sheffield and the Argentinean War, is there's all these 285 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: big plans and all of this work of big budgets 286 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: and a pentagon in that and in it can be 287 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: you know, one exo can be one excess at missile 288 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: uh which was the feeling done? And that's the nakedness, 289 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: if you will, of the American public. How do we 290 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 1: defend at the Persian Gulf gap? How do we defend 291 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 1: on a geography where Iran could respond? We've got to 292 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: take a three sixty view here, Tom. In other words, 293 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: there's no silver bullet. No one missile defense system is 294 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,719 Speaker 1: going to save you. No one intelligence capability is going 295 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: to give you perfect knowledge. No one defensive system against 296 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: an incoming torpedo in the water is going to be perfect. 297 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: But if you put all of those elements together, you've 298 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 1: got a very good chance of defending yourself. And this 299 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: is both at sea and ashore and in the air. 300 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: And again we're quite capable of this. I think we 301 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: can handle just about anything Iran throws out. Tom let 302 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,479 Speaker 1: me tell you one thing I worry about the most. 303 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:59,679 Speaker 1: It's cyber and cyber security. Here, I think our level 304 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: of preparation is not as high relative to all the 305 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: obvious kinetic military effects that Iran could launch against us. 306 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: So for all who are involved in the cyber world today, 307 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: heads up, they will use cyber against US. Admiral Jonathan here, 308 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: let's explore that just a couple of steps further. Some 309 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: of the American press, in fact, the international press, may 310 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: wish to paint Iran as some kind of reckless rogue state. 311 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: They're incredibly calculating foreign policy is wealth thought out. And 312 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: I'm just wondering if you can take us into the 313 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: mind of the government with within Iran right now, the 314 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,160 Speaker 1: Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the thoughts, the process they'll be going 315 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: through to calculate their next step, their response. Indeed, let's 316 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: look at what Iran's options are, and so in the 317 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 1: Iranian equivalent of the Pentagon this evening, it is evening 318 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 1: there they will be looking at attacking our troops in 319 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and Western Afghanistan. They will look at perhaps going 320 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 1: after that embassy in Baghdad again, although I think it's 321 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: unlikely because it's now well defended. Still look got strikes 322 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:10,199 Speaker 1: against Israel. They will look at cyber attacks against the 323 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 1: US mainland as well as our command and control overseas. 324 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: And lastly, I think they'll look very seriously at the 325 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 1: Persian Gulf at raritime options. Well, I'm gonna get the 326 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,719 Speaker 1: map out here, and this is something folks, I'm as 327 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: weak on our goldar Montevalis helped me so much with 328 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 1: a fabric of the large geography of Iran atmalstvenis your 329 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: expert at this. There's Tehran in four or five miles south. 330 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: There's Kerman k e R m a n. We've seen 331 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: that image this morning of the people of Kerman silently 332 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: in the streets, standing in mourning. And then if you 333 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: go three hundred miles directly south, you get to your 334 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 1: Persian Golf. It's distant from Tehran, but it's not, is it? 335 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: It is not? And of course the Iranian military has 336 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: very significant basis book inside the Persian Gulf. And then 337 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 1: you go through the straight up cor moves into the 338 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: North Indian Ocean tom as you can see on your map, 339 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: and that is where the most significant of the Iranian 340 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: naval bases are and by the way, Iran, China and 341 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: Russia have just concluded a two week naval exercise in 342 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: the Northern Indian Ocean, so the Iranian fleet is preparing 343 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: to move to see. I think we will see a 344 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: potential response from them. What I know, Jonas again and 345 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 1: here again James Tavitis with us, and we'll be with 346 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: us through much of his half. Our amials Trevitas. When 347 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: you say the Iranian fleet, what is that? It's um 348 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: not remotely capable in the way that the U. S 349 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: Fleet is. Tom, But I'll tell you three things that 350 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: are pretty good at They have diesel submarines which are 351 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: very quiet and capable of operating in the relatively shallow 352 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: waters of the Persian Gulf in the North Indian Ocean. Secondly, 353 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 1: they have small craft that they can deploy high numbers 354 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: in what are called swarm attacks. Uh. They have rocket 355 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,719 Speaker 1: fired missiles on them, and you can send twenty of 356 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: them to attack a big navy destroyer and that can 357 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: be a problem. Third finally, Tom, they have very capable 358 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: cruise missiles which they can launch both from at sea 359 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: and from their naval platforms. So they're certainly not the U. S. Navy. 360 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: They're not ten feet tall, but they can inflict real 361 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: damage on a US warship. We ought to be very 362 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: concerned about that. As the next few days unfolds, Adam, 363 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: you mentioned the wall games taken place in the Gulf 364 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: of a Mon in the last week between Russia, China 365 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 1: and Iran. What do you expect the response of Russian 366 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: Shota to be in the coming days. They will undoubtedly 367 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 1: condemn this attack. They'll portray it as an assassination of 368 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 1: a political figure. They'll ignore the fact that Sulamani was 369 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: not only the Machiavelli, the cardinal richelieu of violence in 370 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: this Iranian hierarchy, but that he was also personally involved. 371 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: He literally has blood on his hands. They'll ignore all that, 372 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: and they'll portray this as a rogue US military operation. 373 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: I will say, um, we are to recognize that Sulimani 374 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,959 Speaker 1: was deadly and evil and taking his peace off the 375 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: chessboard is tactically a good thing. What we have yet 376 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: to do is lay out a strategy to deal with 377 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: the after effects and the longer term issues here. Well, 378 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: let's talk about that. The opportunity to take down General 379 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: Slimani existed in the president of the presidency of George W. Bush, 380 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: the presidency of Barack Obama as well. Those opportunities weren't taken. 381 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 1: Admiral why not because of the sense that that would 382 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: escalate a direct military confrontation between the US and Iran. 383 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: So that begs the question why now, and my guests 384 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,399 Speaker 1: is that within the White House the calculus was made 385 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: that at this moment they have overwhelming evidence that Sulimani 386 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 1: was behind the rocket attacks that killed Contractor a couple 387 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 1: of days ago, that he was behind the attacks on 388 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 1: our embassy. He became a target of opportunity. His level 389 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: of threat and level of violence has only increased since 390 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: the days of both Bush and Obama. I think those 391 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,679 Speaker 1: three things came together and the administration, as the words 392 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: go in top Gun had a shot Maverick and they 393 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: took it. So you can argue with whether or not 394 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: that is pouring gasoline on a smoldering fire. I think 395 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 1: it is. On the other hand, tactically we are ahead 396 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: for taking out Sulimani. Comgically, we still have work to do. 397 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 1: I've been talking to Admirals tor Vetus about the military 398 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: impacts of the killing of this general of Iran, and 399 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 1: it has been absolutely brilliant, particularly admalster Vitus's comments on 400 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: what the Iranian navy can do at the Gulf of 401 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: Her Moves. Now let us turn to Washington, and I 402 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,679 Speaker 1: will say, deans to be this's formerly with a Fletcher 403 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: School at Touch University. This is occurring within the most 404 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: polarized Washington of our lifetimes. How does that change the 405 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: Washington debate that we are so polarized in our modern politics. Unfortunately, Tom, 406 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 1: there's no good news here. Let's face it. We're about 407 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,679 Speaker 1: to see an impeachment trial, we have an election in 408 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: eleven months. It's the most uh, as you say polarized, 409 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: I would say highly charged environment I can remember in 410 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: my lifetime, my adult lifetime. So the unfortunate part about 411 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: it is that we used to have a philosophy that 412 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: foreign policy makes sure that there's bipartisanship at the water's edge. 413 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: That's not what we're seeing today. And I think you're 414 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: going to see both Republicans and Democrats on divergent paths 415 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: as we look at what we need to do going 416 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 1: forward with Iran. And that's a mistake because we have 417 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,959 Speaker 1: to pull together as a team here, inter agency working together, 418 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: and indeed the branches of government working together, and must 419 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: Vida's one final question if I made this morning, is 420 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:21,199 Speaker 1: the State Department any semblance of the State Department you 421 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,439 Speaker 1: have studied through your career or is it essentially a 422 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: state department run out of the White House. I would 423 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 1: say in this administration, the moves of foreign policy are 424 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,879 Speaker 1: not strategic. As you know, Tom, We think back to 425 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,919 Speaker 1: George Kennon and the Policy Planning staff, the creation of 426 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: the strategy of containment that came out of the State 427 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 1: Department into the inter agency. Today it's driven by the 428 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: National Security Council staff. We have a relatively new National 429 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: Security Advisor, Robert O'Brien UH, and we have a Secretary 430 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: of State in Mike Pompeo UH, who is a very 431 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,880 Speaker 1: good tactical thinker, but hasn't created the long term strategy 432 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: that would like to see. So yes, this is being 433 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 1: driven largely by diplomacy of tweets. Think of it as 434 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 1: shots of espresso into the system day after day, hour 435 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: after hour, and that is not a good way to 436 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 1: run foreign policy. I will do out today a full 437 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: court press on the authorship of James David is this 438 00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: important new book chapter by chapter on the admirals of 439 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 1: the Navy, including Mr Rickover, and I will of course 440 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:36,360 Speaker 1: mention his wonderful the Leader's Bookshelf Apple James Dravidas. Rather 441 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: with us this morning, Team Surveillance has done just such 442 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 1: a wonderful job today to get perspective from military, from 443 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: those of international relations, and indeed from finance on these 444 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: in Baghdad and the silence we see in the streets 445 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: of Carmont to Bruce in Tehran, in Iran, and of 446 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,400 Speaker 1: course the responses in Washington. We do that now in 447 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: some that now with a Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt Uh 448 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,239 Speaker 1: is with the Army. He is formally serving with the 449 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 1: State Department as well, and we're thrilled he could join us. 450 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 1: I should mention as unusual he is expert in finance 451 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 1: with his c f A as well. General kimm It, 452 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,719 Speaker 1: I have to rip up the script, Uh this morning 453 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: with you, and I want to take you from the 454 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 1: staffing and strategy you are claimed for back to Fort Sill, Oklahoma, 455 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: and that is a United States Army Field Artillery school. 456 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: How does our military with traditional events as you were 457 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: once a field artillery officer. How do we dovetail that 458 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 1: military into the new military that needs to defend against 459 00:27:55,400 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 1: unique Iranian strategies. Well, first of all, uh, this is 460 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: not the same army that my father was in nineteen 461 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,399 Speaker 1: fifty four at Fort Sill when I was born. That 462 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 1: was a very heavy, conventional army that relied on tanks, artillery, airplanes. 463 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,960 Speaker 1: We do have those same capabilities these days, and if 464 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: we have a conflict with Iraq, we will certainly use 465 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: some of those capabilities, but that's not the way that 466 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,719 Speaker 1: iron will fight us, and will fight us an unconventional manner, 467 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 1: and that's something that our unconventional forces have become premier 468 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,199 Speaker 1: experts in the world on. You take a look at 469 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 1: the special forces, which were virtually nothing in nineteen fifty 470 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 1: four two now the capabilities that they can bring to 471 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: the battlefield. They're also going to fight us, not only 472 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 1: unconventionally with troops. They'll also use drones, will also use missiles, 473 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 1: will also use other kind of capabilities targeted assassinations. Um, 474 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: we've been training for decades on these types of conflicts. 475 00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 1: Were not perfect at it, but we're pretty damn good 476 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: at it within all this, and as Atmos Dravides told 477 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 1: us a bit ago, there is a new warfare that 478 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: James Dravidz talks about, which is cyber war. As well. 479 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: You're again a tune as an expert on this, explain 480 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 1: exactly how Iran commits cyber war against the people of 481 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 1: the United States. Well, first of all, let me clarify 482 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: I am no longer in the army. I am right, yes, 483 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 1: of course. And second I would say Jimmy Stebritez has 484 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: exactly right. If you took a look at take a 485 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: look at the types of war in the shadows that 486 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: is going on right now on the Internet. Probably the 487 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 1: best example of that is when a combined effort went 488 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 1: after the stuck snet capability, used the stuck s net 489 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 1: to stop the Iranian capability, the centrifuge capability. That we 490 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: have that capability, they have that capability. Of course, what 491 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,719 Speaker 1: they will try to do is attack some of our 492 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 1: critical infrastructure. And the important thing is they may have 493 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 1: an offensive capability. The important thing is how good is 494 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: our defensive capability. Um, They've got Tavern, we've got Silicon Valley, 495 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: They've got a bunch of ir GC guys running around 496 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: screaming depth to America. We have a bunch of millennials 497 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 1: sitting in cubicles out in Silicon Valley, and I think 498 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: we've got the better deal on that. I think we'll 499 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 1: be able to extend against anything they try to throw 500 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 1: at us. And the time that we've got left, we 501 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 1: can go back to your father, who had a nodding 502 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 1: acquaintance with the machinery of the Senate. A few years back, 503 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: it was a less polarized Senate. How does General Kimmitt, 504 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: how do you perceive a deeply polarized Washington And is 505 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 1: that a deterrence to the Pentagon. Well, it's not a 506 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,239 Speaker 1: deterrence to the Pentagon. It's certainly, in some ways an 507 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: impediment to the Thank you better said we we would 508 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: like to see a bipartisan Congress, even if bipartisan decisions 509 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 1: are not necessarily what the Pentagon believes in. But there's 510 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: this fist fight that's going on up there where you've 511 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 1: got one side of the aisle screaming at the other 512 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 1: side of the aisl It doesn't do for the Pentagon 513 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 1: what we needed to be doing, making bipartisan decisions for 514 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: the best interests of the United States of America, and 515 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 1: that's what we could use right now. Well, it's what 516 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 1: we could use right now, and certainly what the Pentagon requests. 517 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 1: And some would say, whether a Republican or Democrat, that 518 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 1: the Trump administration is original, Is it a factor that 519 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 1: that's such a different administration method versus previous Republican and 520 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: Democrat administrations. Um, there is. There are two sides of 521 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: that coin. On one side of the coin, one would 522 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 1: argue that the conventional way of doing diplomatic relations negotiations 523 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: that we've seen for years and years and places such 524 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 1: as North Korea haven't worked. And as President Obama once said, 525 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: when you've been doing the same thing for fifty years 526 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 1: and it doesn't work, and try something new. This president 527 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 1: is certainly trying something new, particularly in the areas of 528 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 1: foreign policy. UM. He is taking a risk with this 529 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 1: action that he took over the past twenty four hours. 530 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: I certainly hope his advisers and the Pentagon are prepared 531 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,920 Speaker 1: for the inevitable backlash that we're going to see. Whether 532 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 1: it will lead to the end to the forty year 533 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 1: conflict that we've had with Iran is yet to be seen. UM. 534 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 1: But that's what we pay presidents to do. Well, I 535 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 1: guess it's all Germaine. But what is so important here? 536 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 1: And Mark kemmed again, you have the synthesis of this 537 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 1: with in Washington is somewhat the cliche getting everyone on 538 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 1: the same page. We have a state department that's certainly original. 539 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 1: I think Secretary of State Pompeio would even admit that 540 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 1: the Pentagon is a pentagon. And then we god, as 541 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 1: you mentioned, the fractured politics. Do you have any sense 542 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: that these events of the last twenty four hours will 543 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 1: get people on the same page. Oh, I don't think so, 544 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 1: if for no other reason than it's an election year. However, 545 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 1: if it if it elevates to the point where we 546 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 1: have some pretty bleak scenarios where we have outcomes such 547 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 1: as large number of American troops killed, embassies being attacked, 548 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 1: that may rally everyone to a common effort. But I 549 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 1: think as long as we are seeing the conflict and 550 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 1: the crisis at at a moderate level, I think you're 551 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 1: going to see both sides of the out come out 552 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 1: with different press statements. Um none of them completely self serving, 553 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 1: but none of them completely with the interests of the 554 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 1: United States. In mind, General Kimmon, thank you so much, 555 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 1: greatly appreciated. Mark Kimmont, of course retired Brigadier General of 556 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 1: the United States Army, his service also at the State Department. 557 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 1: We greatly appreciate it. We've talked to James Tavitaz this morning. 558 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 1: We've talked to Mark Kimmon, of course, with our expertise 559 00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,799 Speaker 1: in the Pentagon and with a certain authority. Here is 560 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 1: Margaret Brennan, you of course know her from facin Nation 561 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,799 Speaker 1: on CBS, and we'll talk a minute about this Sunday show, 562 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,359 Speaker 1: which I'm sure she's blowing up and destroying right now 563 00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: and rebuilding. But Margaret, I really thought of you about 564 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: your tour of duty covering State for CBS. We heard 565 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 1: Secretary Pompeo on Fox News today on CNN. I'm sure 566 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 1: he'll do a walk through with CBS at some point. 567 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:54,840 Speaker 1: How different is the State Department now versus the State 568 00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 1: Department of a few years ago or of two thousand 569 00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 1: and eleven on the killing of Osama in Laudon, Oh, 570 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 1: Completely different? I mean, the silence was deafening last night. 571 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,919 Speaker 1: Many State Department officials, uh WEAD policymakers for the Middle 572 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,919 Speaker 1: East were in the dark about this um. And this 573 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 1: is the kind of assassination of a leader that is 574 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,480 Speaker 1: sort of a step above taking out a Ben Lawden 575 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:26,760 Speaker 1: or bag Daddy in terms of actually challenging a state 576 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:31,879 Speaker 1: and having a war footing. So this is incredible, and 577 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 1: UH Secretary Pompeo this morning is making these oblique, kind 578 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:39,319 Speaker 1: of mysterious references to UH imminent threats to the U S. 579 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 1: And we just don't have any explanation yet. Well, you 580 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,440 Speaker 1: go right to the heart of the matter. And I'm 581 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,239 Speaker 1: going to frame as Paul Sweeney as I did earlier. 582 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 1: I was with Nora Robini on the stage at the 583 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 1: Milk and Institute, and the clearest memory of the taxicab 584 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,960 Speaker 1: right from l A X Margaret with an Ethiopian cab 585 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,480 Speaker 1: driver in tears over to the Beverly Hills whatever I mean, 586 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:02,320 Speaker 1: that was such an important moment for America, the killing 587 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,920 Speaker 1: of Osama bin Laden. And you're suggesting this is actually 588 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:11,120 Speaker 1: a larger event. Well, I do not mean in any 589 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:15,440 Speaker 1: way to lessen nine eleven by any stretch of the imagination. 590 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 1: But what really has the national security implications long term 591 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 1: for the United States were the dominoes that fell after 592 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,120 Speaker 1: Bin Lauden. That was or after Bin Lads attack on 593 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 1: the United States, rather than the assassination of him. It 594 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 1: was the war in Iraq, it was the war in Afghanistan. 595 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,480 Speaker 1: It was the US actions that were triggered by the 596 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: event itself, rather than a decade later, the targeting and 597 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: killing of a terrorist leader. Cosum Sulamani was considered an 598 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 1: enemy of the United States. He has blood on his 599 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,759 Speaker 1: hands of at least six hundred US servicemen, thousands of 600 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 1: Middle East uh nations on his hands. But he was 601 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,880 Speaker 1: also a red hand man to the Supreme leader of Iran. 602 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,279 Speaker 1: This is like targeting the Vice President CIA director in 603 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 1: the United States. This is an act of war Um, 604 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,760 Speaker 1: and this is a dramatic escalation, and a dramatic escalation 605 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 1: after Iran has been rationing up tensions incredibly over the 606 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 1: past two and a half years at the direction of Sulamani, 607 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,879 Speaker 1: after the US pulled out of that around nuclear deal 608 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,840 Speaker 1: UH the sanctions the Trump administration is piled on have 609 00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,160 Speaker 1: not stopped Iran from meddling. It did not stop Sulamani. 610 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 1: Assassinating him takes out the leader. Does it kill the organization? No, Margaret, 611 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 1: I know it's very very early hours for this story, 612 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 1: just having broken overnight. But within the belt Way, are 613 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 1: you getting any sense of kind of what the folks 614 00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 1: in Washington believe the next steps will be, expectations for 615 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,040 Speaker 1: some type of retaliation? I guess well, yes, I mean, 616 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,439 Speaker 1: there are obviously a lot of people going to horset 617 00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 1: case scenarios there. And I do not want to be 618 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 1: hyperbolic here, but we are seeing, you know, messages of 619 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 1: increased security from mayors across the country about the U 620 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 1: s homeland. We are seeing you a worst case scenarios 621 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,440 Speaker 1: being drawn up by US allies who are concerned that 622 00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,319 Speaker 1: Iran may ditch what remains of that nuclear deal that 623 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 1: it has with the world powers that President Trump pulled 624 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 1: out of but still has been in place. Does this 625 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 1: make Iran decide to go forward? Right? There is a 626 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,720 Speaker 1: lot of um back of the envelope sort of risk 627 00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,920 Speaker 1: assessment here, and that is why it is so incredible 628 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,680 Speaker 1: really that Trump administration hasn't explained what comes next, and 629 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,440 Speaker 1: they are saying this is to deescalate. Most allies and 630 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,800 Speaker 1: adversaries are saying this is escalatory, Margaret, Instead of asking 631 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:35,759 Speaker 1: who your guests are in fac the Nation, because I'm 632 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,560 Speaker 1: sure you're working on a new show right now. What 633 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,080 Speaker 1: is your number one questions Sunday morning, whether it's a 634 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,760 Speaker 1: politician or someone from the military, etcetera. What's your number 635 00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 1: one face the Nation question Sunday? How does this end? 636 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,880 Speaker 1: Is America safer? I agree? Is America's safer? That's one 637 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,799 Speaker 1: of been one of our themes today. Margaret Brennan, thank 638 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,359 Speaker 1: you so much, of course, with fac Nation can see 639 00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,600 Speaker 1: it on CBS Sunday morning. You can hear facin Nation 640 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:07,800 Speaker 1: with Margaret Brennan. I'm Bloomberg Radio Sunday afternoon two pm 641 00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,000 Speaker 1: in New York, Washington, d C. And now Bloomberg one 642 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:13,920 Speaker 1: or six one Boston New Report Facin Nation this Sunday 643 00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,920 Speaker 1: at two. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for listening to the 644 00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:24,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 645 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:29,000 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 646 00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:33,319 Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 647 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:34,880 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.