WEBVTT - Israel Vows Retaliation for Iran Attack; VP Debate Reaction 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:06.840 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:12.920 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here 0:00:12.920 --> 0:00:15.240 are the stories we're following today, Karen. 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:17.640 Oil is on the rise once again following the latest 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 developments in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate CREWED is 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:22.680 up two and to third percent, trading its seventy one 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:26.080 dollars forty five cents per barrel Brent. The international benchmark 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.680 is up two point two percent, trading above seventy five dollars. 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:33.720 This as Israel vows to retaliate after Iran fired about 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:37.240 two hundred ballistic missiles at the country. Israel says most 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.520 of them were intercepted, but one person was reportedly killed 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:43.599 in the West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:45.000 says they will fight back. 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:46.640 Mal Mazaganosherlan. 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.360 Iran made a major mistake and it will pay for it. 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:52.879 Do agm in Iran just ton't understand our determination to 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:56.840 defend OFFO and our determination to retaliate to our enemies. 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:01.200 Benjamin Netanyahu's speaking there through an interpreter. US warships helped 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:04.120 to shoot down the Iranian projectiles. The US says the 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:07.920 attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective. Bloomberg News 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:10.880 Middle East Breaking News editor Dana Krash has more on 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:12.880 diplomatic efforts to end the fighting. 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:16.840 The US has been taking on this diplomatic role primarily 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:19.440 because it doesn't want to be dragged in a war 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:21.840 in the Middle East. It has interests there, it has 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:25.600 bases there, and that could be very risky for them. 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:29.000 It is not just a risk from Iran firing directly 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:32.680 at Israel, but also proxies spread around to fire at 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.560 US interests in US basis in the region. You have 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.680 once in Syria, once in a rock stale. Even after 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:41.560 the Israeli attack on the southern suburbs in Beirut, there 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:43.960 were reports in local media that there was heavy deployment 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:46.800 by the Lebanese army around the US embassy there. So 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.680 these interests are at risk because of the proxies, and 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.560 the US is trying not to drag itself into this 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:55.600 war that is becoming more regional by the day. 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:59.200 Bloomberg's Dana Krasch says Iran's latest move was a reprisal 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.559 for Israel's case of the leader of Hesballah, Hassan Nosrala 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:03.720 well Nathan. 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:05.960 The war in the Middle East was one of the 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.760 opening topics and what could be the final debate of 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:12.440 twenty twenty four. Democrat Tim Wallace went after former President 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:15.560 Trump at the start of the CBS News vice presidential debate. 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.079 It's those that were closest to Donald Trump that understand 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:21.640 how dangerous he is. When the world is this dangerous, 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.679 His chief of staff, John Kelly said that he was 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:26.360 the most flawed human being he'd ever met. 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.560 Republican JD. Vance was quick to respond. 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:31.760 As much as Governor Waltz just accused Donald Trump of 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:35.320 being an agent of chaos. Donald Trump actually delivered stability 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.760 in the world, and he did it by establishing effective deterrence. 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.800 The two running mates also sparred over immigration and the economy. 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:45.720 Senator Vance aimed his fire at the top of the ticket. 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:48.800 If Kamala Harris has such great plans for how to 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:52.440 address middle class problems, then she ought to do them now. 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.040 Not one asking for promotion, but in the job the 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:57.520 American people gave her three and a half years ago. 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.080 And during the debate, Governor Walls appeared nervous at times. 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.800 He addressed some of his past misstatements, like when he 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:06.000 said he was in Hong Kong for the TN and 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:08.280 Men's Square protests in nineteen eighty nine. 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:10.359 All I said on this was is I got there 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.320 that summer and misspoke on this, So I will just 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:14.880 that's what I've said. 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:18.280 And Senator Vance tried to soften his party's approach on 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:21.400 abortion rights, an issue that Democrats have tried to capitalize on. 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.400 We've got to do so much better of a job 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:28.120 at earning the American people's trust back on this issue 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.600 where they frankly just don't trust us. And I think 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:32.480 that's one of the things that Donald Trump and I 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:33.520 are endeavoring to do. 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:36.920 And following the CBS News vice presidential debate, Donald Trump 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.960 posted on social media that he not only doesn't support 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:42.400 a federal abortion ban, he would veto it. 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.600 Well, Nathan, there is plenty of reaction to the vice 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:49.920 presidential debate, and here's a Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Zeno 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:52.000 and Rick Davis right after the debate. 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.040 Yeah, I don't know if there were winners and losers. 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.600 I think it's one of them sort of comported themselves 0:03:56.640 --> 0:04:00.360 in a way that wasn't, you know, particularly special, but 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.200 you know, sort of met the needs of of their candidates. 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.000 I think from a purely debating perspective, I think you 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.280 have to give it to jd Vance. I don't think 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:09.560 that's much of a surprise. 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:11.360 He is a season debater. 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.480 I think what he did that through Tim waltz Off 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:18.560 a bit, was he was very sort of willing to 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:19.800 reach across the aisle. 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:21.720 He was friendly, he. 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:25.919 Was affable, he was talking about being bipartisan, all of 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:26.960 those kinds of things. 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.160 And that's Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Zeno and Rick Davis 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:34.360 on a special debate edition of Bloomberg Balance of Power 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:36.040 with Joe Matthew and Kaylee Lodge. 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:36.360 Here. 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.160 More of their analysis on the Balance of Power podcast 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:41.000 available wherever you download. 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:43.240 Well, Karen, it is day two of the strike that 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:46.400 has shut down thirty six ports in the United States. 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:49.279 Bloomberg's John Tucker is here with the latest. So, John, 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:50.960 are we seeing any signs of progress? 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:54.320 Few? If any. Nathan President Biden met with his chief 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:56.840 of staff and other senior ags yesterday evening to discuss 0:04:56.920 --> 0:05:00.599 the strike and reiterated his desire for his team to continue, 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.359 urging the carriers to present a strong offer to the 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:07.400 long shoreman Acting Labor Secretary Julie Sue she could prove 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:10.600 the instrumental she helped to broker a deal between West 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:13.880 Coast doc workers and their employers last summer. The ISLA 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.120 President Harold Daggett told longshormant of the picking lines to 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:19.600 prepare to stay off the job for as long as 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:21.760 it takes to get a deal for even higher pay 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.919 and protections from automation, which actually could prove to be 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:29.640 the bigger obstacle of Bloomberg Economics estimates a hit to 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.560 GDP of as much as three billion dollars per day 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.120 from foregone spending at production. A week long strike could 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.400 knock three tenths of a percentage point off annualized GDP 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:41.919 In New York. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:43.120 All right, John, thank you. 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:43.200 Well. 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:45.480 Let's turn to the markets now, and futures are lower 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.400 again following the escalation of fighting in the Middle East. 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:50.719 As for company news, shares in Nike, they're down more 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.960 than five percent this morning. The company has withdrawn its 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.719 guidance after sales missed estimates, and we get the numbers 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:58.279 from Bloomberg's Charlie Pillett. 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:02.760 It underscores the ch challenge that incoming CEO Elliot Hill, 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.880 will face when he takes the reins later this month. 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:09.480 During the company's call with analysts, chief financial officer Matt 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:13.719 Friend said the move was due to the upcoming leadership transition. 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:17.240 Before the call, Nike reported revenue in the fiscal first 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.920 quarter that dropped ten percent to eleven point five to 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:25.000 nine billion dollars, falling short of the average analyst estimate. 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:28.880 The declines were especially sharp in North America and the 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.440 region including Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, while the 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:36.440 Converse brand also persisted as a problem area in New 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:38.479 York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg. 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.920 Radio, all Right, Charlie, thank you. And in Asia, Chinese 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.159 shares listed in Hong Kong have jumped the most in 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:46.120 almost two years as traders returned from a public holiday. 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.960 The Hangsang China Enterprises Index climbed by more than eight percent. 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.240 The extended rally comes off the back of increased optimism 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:57.120 around China's economy. Authorities unveiled a range of stimulus measures 0:06:57.200 --> 0:06:57.680 last week. 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:02.039 Hey, it's time now. 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:03.920 For look at some of the other stories making news 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:05.520 in New York and around the world, And for that 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:07.359 We're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:09.159 Michael, Good morning, Good morning Karen. 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:12.760 Today, President Biden will surveyed the devastation in the southeast 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:17.360 caused by Hurricane Helene. Biden says it's urgent to get 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.360 a federal response to the victims of the storm. He 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:23.800 also talked about the administration's preparation ahead of Helene. 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:27.920 We had over one thousand federal personnel, including search and 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:31.440 rescue teams, at the ready on the ground before. 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:36.120 It hit, Biden spoke at an interagency briefing dedicated to 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:40.200 the federal government's response to Hurricane Helene. More than one 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.200 hundred and sixty people were killed in the storm, and 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:46.280 hundreds are still unaccounted for. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.160 We have ninety two search and rescue teams who are 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:54.680 continuing to work to rescue people. We know that there 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:58.280 will be more fatalities. 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.720 Governor Cooper says, Rescue teams trying to reach those washed 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:06.400 out by the catastrophic flooding. The attorney representing Sean Didty 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:10.880 Combs categorically denies claims that his clients sexually assaulted anyone. 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.560 This after a new lawsuit filed against the hip hop 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:18.240 Pioneer on behalf of more than one hundred alleged victims. 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.720 They're suing Combs, claiming they are victims of the Hip 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:25.240 hop Mogul. Several alleged that they were invited to a 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:27.920 party and given a drink that made them block out. 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:31.360 Attorney for the alleged victims Tony Busby, we. 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.360 Now represent one hundred and twenty individuals who intend to 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:38.400 bring civil claims in civil court against Sean Ditty Combs, 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:42.880 as well as claims against many other individuals and entities. 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.320 Combs is in jail after a New York judge denied 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:49.800 the Hip Hop Mogul's requests for bail last month on 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:53.920 charges of sexual assault and racketeering. The change of plea 0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:57.199 hearing for the former doctor charged in actor Matthew Perry's 0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:00.400 death is scheduled for today in Los Angeles. He is 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.440 expected to plead guilty to one count of conspiracy to 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:07.720 distribute ketamine. Perry suffered from depression, and his doctors convinced 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:11.200 him that he needed to take high doses of ketamine. 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.800 And John Amos, who starred as the family patriarch on 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.440 the hit nineteen seventy sitcom, Good Times has died. Amos 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:21.280 also earned an Emmy nomination for his role in the 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:25.080 nineteen seventy seven mini series Roots. John Amos was eighty 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:28.600 four Global News, twenty four hours a day and whenever 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.480 you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:32.800 and this is Bloomberg Karen. 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:34.440 All right, Michael Barr, thank you. 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:41.520 Time now for the Bloomberry Sports Update, brought to you 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:45.599 by try Stage. Howdy, here's John stash Hour, John, good morning. 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:45.840 Good morning. 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.520 During all season, the Mets have not made things easy 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:51.480 for themselves. Began zero and five or later eleven under 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.040 five hundred and so often when they won, they did 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:56.640 it and come from behind fashion happened in that epic 0:09:56.920 --> 0:09:59.600 playoff clinching win in Atlanta and the next night in 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.960 mil One. Twice the Brewers went ahead. Both times, the 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:06.120 Mets followed with runs three in the second inning and 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:09.480 even bigger uprising in the fifth and a swinging a. 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:10.400 Bouncer right side. 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:13.280 It's a base hit. One run is in for New York. 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.600 Here comes Viento's from second. The throw goes to third, 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:20.040 and the Mets have scored five runs in the fifth. 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:23.600 They now lead the Brewers eight to four, and this 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:26.240 entire rally has happened with. 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:28.040 Two outs ESPN the call. 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:30.720 Not a single hit by either team after that, Mets one, 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.360 eight to four. Another win tonight gives in their first 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:36.720 series victories in twenty fifteen and San Diego Fernando Tatis 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:39.480 Junior two run over first inning and Andres went on 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.680 to shut out Atlanta four to nothing. In the American League, 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:44.560 the road teams won Detroit red hot down the stretch 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:47.760 with a likely Cy Young Winna Drink Scooble dominating. The 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.040 Tigers won three one at Houston. That breaks the street 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:53.600 for the Astros, they had won ten consecutive series openers. 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:57.120 Kansas City won one nothing at Baltimore. That's the Orioles 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.520 ninth postseason los in a row. All four games twos 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:03.280 take place today. The Mets game starts at seven thirty 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:05.320 at Barkley. Is another one for the Liberty. They held 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:07.600 out at the end eighty eight eighty four over the 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:11.800 defending WNBA champion Aces Sabrina. Inisk you score twenty four 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:13.920 Liberty four and O in the playoffs up to nothing 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.840 in the semifinals, they go for the sweep Friday in Vegas. 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:19.920 The link speaks the sun that series. 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:20.079 Time of one. 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:22.960 It would not be a surprise if the Raiders trade 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:25.760 Davonte Adams. They admit to talking to Teams. Adams has 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:29.040 now requested a trade. Jets are interested Adams many years 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.360 a teammate of Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Rodgers said 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.559 yesterday his relationship with Jets coach Robert Sala has been 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.880 great since day one. The two openly disagreed about Rogers 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:41.480 use of cadence. Last Sunday, John Stasheedward Bloomberg Sports, Karen and. 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:45.240 Nathan all Right, John, thank you and the Bloomberg Sports Update. 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:46.760 It is brought to you by Audi. 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:50.199 Visit your tri state Audi dealer today and get behind 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:52.720 the wheel of the Audi model you've always wanted. 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:59.280 Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:00.079 and around. 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.520 The world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:05.720 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.240 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Tensions in the Middle East 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.640 running higher than ever after Iran's barrage of ballistic missile 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:17.000 attacks against Israel. Speaking through an interpreter, Israeli Prime Minister 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.880 Benjamin Natan Yahoo is promising to retaliate. 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:22.000 The regime in Iran does not. 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:26.320 Understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:28.240 taliate against our enemies. 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.320 For the very latest with us from Tel Aviv is 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:35.680 Bloomberg News Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner Ethan, good morning. 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:39.199 First off, do we have a sense of the impact 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:43.719 of Iran's attack yesterday. Obviously it was much bigger than 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:46.800 what we saw back in April, So. 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:50.520 The attack was much bigger, Nathan, And indeed the impact 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:55.440 was bigger, but it still was relatively limited. We're still 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.360 gathering what we can figure out about. There seemed to 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.280 have been some apartments damage to north of Tel Aviv. 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:05.400 There was a restaurant damaged. There was one man killed 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:10.760 in the West Bank of Palestinian but we're I'm unaware 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:16.280 of any other deaths or any very serious damage from 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.760 this attack. But they you know, these missiles got through 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:24.360 some of the air defense systems and it was a 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:28.480 much more punishing attack. This was this was two hundred 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:35.079 or so missiles compared to what it was in where 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:39.760 there were three hundred in April. But they but this 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.240 time they were all ballistic missiles, so they were much 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:43.320 more dangerous. 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.920 At the same time, we did hear from the White 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.120 House that really President Biden said that the attack appeared 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:53.600 to have been defeated and ineffective. At the same time 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:57.240 as we just heard Israeli Prime Minister Netsan yahoo Is 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:02.920 vowing retaliation. What kind of response could we see could 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.560 we be anticipating from the Israeli side. 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:08.400 I think we're. 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:12.040 Looking at a fairly severe expectation. I think that this 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.440 is going to ratchet it up. I think the Israelis 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.600 feel that they have to respond with severity. 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:20.920 I don't know when it's. 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:22.320 Going to come, but I think it's going to come 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.160 in the coming days, and I think it's going to 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.640 go after It's not going to be symbolic. It's going 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:32.000 to go after some fairly important spots in Iran, strategic 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:36.440 perhaps oil, perhaps nuclear. I don't know. The Americans say 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.280 that they're on board with cooperating in some fashion. I 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:43.680 think we are looking at a fairly intense upsurge here, 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:44.360 to be honest. 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:48.160 So we don't see any sign that the movement of 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:53.760 further US personnel, further US equipment into the Middle East 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.880 could be acting as some kind of deterrent at this point. 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:59.560 I mean, when you say to Turrent, the implication is 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:03.720 that deter Israel's actions, I think the idea, yeah, But 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:04.440 I mean I think. 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.400 That the turns to those things. 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.360 Yeah, yeah, So don't I think that the goal of 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:14.920 sending those people in personnel ad equipment is to bolster 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.560 the anti Iran approach, And so I think that may happen, 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.280 and I think that, No, I don't think that the 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:27.920 Americans are seeking to drive Israel away from much. I 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.400 don't know. I mean, obviously they're negotiating together right now, 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.720 but I don't forget that the Americans said to Iran, 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:36.760 don't do this, and if you do, there'll be severe consequences, 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:40.200 And now it looks like there will be. I don't 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:42.720 really know what that means, but I think there's reason 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.000 to believe something quite serious is a foot and soon. 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.280 Is there a risk at this point that if we 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:54.520 do see a further direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:57.880 that even more parties could be drawn into the conflict. 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.000 Sure, I mean the part is that you're thinking about, 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:04.200 I suppose are the various militias and proxies that around 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:08.920 you know, funds and train so they will. Certainly, I 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.720 expect there'll be more terrorism inside as well, the way 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.560 there was yesterday two guys carried out gun attacks south 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:16.240 of Tel Aviv. 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:17.520 There might be more of that. 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.680 Look, I don't think that the States are going to 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.240 get involved Syria, Egypt and so forth. And you know, 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.080 I don't think so. I think when we talk about 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:27.400 an uptick, we mean the United States and around. 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:28.720 That's about as big as it gets. 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.160 Right right, Well, We'll be continuing to monitor developments. We 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.880 appreciate the update from you. Ethan Bronner, our Middle East 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:39.920 Israel Bureau Chief, joining us this morning from Tel Aviv 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:42.840 and for more insights. We have a roundtable discussion on 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:45.040 what's happening in the Middle East, as well as reaction 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:49.440 to the vice presidential debate from CBS News, where the 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:53.280 tensions between Israel and I ron did figure prominently. Joining 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:57.280 us now is Tina Fordham, the founder and geopolitical strategist 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:00.400 at Fordham Global Foresight, along with Terry Haynes is the 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.840 founder of Pangaea Policy. Thanks to both of you for 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:07.120 being with us this morning. I want to start with you, Tina, 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:11.479 where do you see the level of tension now between Israel, 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:16.320 between Iran and Iran's proxies following Iran's missile attack. 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:20.400 Thank you. It's clearly very elevated. 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:26.400 Markets have been trying to ignore the escalation since October 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.720 seventh of last year. The anniversary is coming up. Israel 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:36.480 will need to respond and we stay in this very dangerous, 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:41.760 high stakes game of geopolitical ping pong. But market participants 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:46.399 will be focused on targets and for something that seems. 0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:48.639 To be different in terms of escalation. 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:53.680 So last night's attack had a modest impact on oil prices, 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:57.919 but that's going to be counterbalanced by Saudi Arabia's announcement 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:01.119 that it's increasing its product targets. 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.639 Terry, I want to bring you into this conversation as well. 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:09.760 We saw the candidates for vice president address this issue, 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:13.520 the current tensions between Israel and i Ron right at 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.960 the top of last night's vice presidential debate. Did the 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:19.840 running mates meet the moment? Did they make the case 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:23.680 effectively in your view for the tops of the tickets 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:27.879 being able to confront these geopolitical risks. 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:32.600 Well, I don't think they convinced anybody that already wasn't convinced. 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:37.399 For one candidate or the other. But the unanimity and 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:42.679 the approach overall should be a significant takeaway for people 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:46.359 outside the United States as to the degree of unity 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.080 that in fact and bipartisan unity that in fact does exist. 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.000 Beyond that, markets have been ignoring a great deal. You've 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.760 already got the highest geo political risk in fifty years. 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:01.000 This situation in the Middle East is preciously close to 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:06.280 boiling over completely. A great deal depends on just how 0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:11.560 proportional the Israeli response is and to where it's pitched, 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:14.840 whether it's you know, the Iranians of course, have have 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:18.439 gone after the citizenry and you know, the Ethan and 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:21.800 in your last segment says, I think quite rightly that 0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.640 what you're going to see from Israel is a lot 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:28.600 more targeted towards towards military targets and the ability to 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:34.239 continue to prosecute a war on the Iranian side. So 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:37.399 you know, the question is what the Israelis do next 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.040 and the degree to which the Iranians see that as 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:45.440 a provocation. So this situation is much more, much more fraught, 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.080 uh than markets are used to. Markets think this is 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.200 the same old, same old, and they're reacting that way, 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:50.719 and it's not. 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.239 We did see a wide range of topics discussed in 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:57.320 the vice presidential debate last night, Terry, I want to 0:19:57.359 --> 0:19:58.920 ask what stood out to you. 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:05.480 Well, fundamentally, you know, for markets, what markets heard is 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.600 that you know, I thought was very consequential. Rather, they 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:12.560 didn't hear it. Neither ticket, nor did neither political party 0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:15.960 wants to deal with or talk about unsustainable US fiscal 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:20.520 debt and deficit, which is firstly as a significant markets concern. 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:21.280 Uh. 0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:24.080 Secondly, it imperils the ability of the United States to 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:28.679 continue directly in perils now the ability to continue to 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:33.240 fund domestic programs of all kinds. And thirdly, we're now 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:35.960 in a situation I think that which markets are slow 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:39.879 to pick up on that debt service is now larger 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:44.439 than anything spending on anything else, larger than defense, larger 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:48.359 than you know, healthcare, larger than anything. And you know, 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:52.600 great powers don't last a great deal longer in that situation. 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.720 And yet you know, neither political party is interested in 0:20:56.760 --> 0:20:59.680 even talking about it, much less dealing with it. Uh. 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:01.760 So you know that I think that was a major 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:02.840 market disappointment. 0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:06.639 Tina, Why are you some of your reactions to the 0:21:06.720 --> 0:21:09.879 Vice presidential debate. Obviously a lot of discussion, maybe not 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:14.040 necessarily pointed on the fiscal policy, but we did hear 0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:17.320 a lot when it comes to the threat of tariffs 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:19.840 from former President Trump on immigration as well. 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:24.639 Well of all of the things that might move the 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:27.720 needle in the polls that we could talk about, the 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.480 escalation of the Middle East conflict being one of them, 0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:34.240