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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podas all Right,

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Speaker 1: here we.

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Speaker 2: Go, fifteen funny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty, forty five,

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Speaker 2: fifty and the.

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Speaker 3: Kick as Block Look College Football World Standard.

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Speaker 1: Good Bye, Oh my goodness, he stumbled and football.

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Speaker 3: It's the lateral turn, a counter of the job.

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Speaker 1: Get you the lad I'm not gonna table up the

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Speaker 1: veil to night God.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side on the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the size of the fight in the doll.

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Speaker 3: What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 3: Campus Podcast. This is the past twelve season betting preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm stucky in joining me, as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 3: Normally i'd make a joke about the back twelve last

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Speaker 3: and certainly.

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Speaker 1: Least Oh no, we suck again.

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Speaker 3: But you know, compared to the SEC where it's like,

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Speaker 3: you know, everyone's pretty convinced that family is going to

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Speaker 3: take that, and same with Ohio State the Big ten.

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Speaker 3: A lot of interesting takes that you can have in

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Speaker 3: the PAC twelve. This year, I think there's a lot

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Speaker 3: more disagreement in regards to some of the top teams.

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Speaker 3: A lot of transfers are going to impact some of

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Speaker 3: these teams. So we'll see if we can dig up

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Speaker 3: some of that value. And I think that we might

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Speaker 3: have a couple disagreements, and we do agree on a

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Speaker 3: couple for sure. But what's going on call.

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Speaker 2: A divisionalist PAC twelve. We're going to see if that

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Speaker 2: helps them get into the playoff. They haven't been there

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Speaker 2: since twenty sixteen. Washington went did not cover a three

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Speaker 2: possession spread against Alabama. PAC twelve essentially has caved every

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Speaker 2: time they've been at the doorstep in the PAC twelve

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Speaker 2: championship game. And we'll see if that continues, and we'll

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Speaker 2: see if USC is going to try to join that

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Speaker 2: list of teams that just come up short in the

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Speaker 2: back twelve.

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Speaker 3: Right in and USC is the favorite at plus one

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Speaker 3: seventy Utah plus two fifty Oregon plus three hundred, UCLA

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Speaker 3: ten to one, Washington seventeen to one. Then you get

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Speaker 3: down to the Wazoo, Oregon State at forty to one,

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Speaker 3: Arizona State Cal Fifty five to one, Stanford sixty five

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Speaker 3: to one in Colorado, and Arizona major long shots. Just

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Speaker 3: to summarize what the conference looks like, there are three

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Speaker 3: new head coaches at Washington, Oregon, and USC. You could

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Speaker 3: count Washington State, but Dickert was the coach for the

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Speaker 3: final six last year as the internment is still the

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Speaker 3: head coach. There are seven new offensive coordinators, there are

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Speaker 3: eight new defensive coordinators. And I think the most interesting

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Speaker 3: story of the Pac twelve this year is the quarterback position.

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Speaker 3: Obviously the most important position on the field. There are seven,

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Speaker 3: maybe eight, depending on how a quarterback battle shakes out,

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Speaker 3: new quarterbacks from you know, last year day one, Game

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Speaker 3: one to this year game one, eight possible starting transfers

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Speaker 3: at quarterback. So you know USC will have a transfer quarterback,

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Speaker 3: Oregon will most likely Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, Colorado,

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Speaker 3: Arizona intraconference transfer. So that's going to go a long

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Speaker 3: way in determining a lot of these wind totals and

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Speaker 3: what happens in the conference is so let's dive right

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Speaker 3: into it. There are no divisions this year, so that

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Speaker 3: makes the schedule even more important. The top two teams

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Speaker 3: from a win percentage perspective, and then obviously if there's

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Speaker 3: ties will be tie breakers will go to the Pac

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Speaker 3: twelve championship. USC plus one seventy Utah plus two fifty

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Speaker 3: Oregon plus three hundred. As I said, I think most

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Speaker 3: would agree, it's probably a three team race. I actually played,

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Speaker 3: and you're going to this discrimination so we can stay

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Speaker 3: high level. I actually played Oregon to win the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 3: I guess this is a time to get in next season.

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Speaker 3: Bow next season then full effect, that's our first bow Nicks.

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Speaker 3: He hasn't officially been named the starter. I don't believe

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Speaker 3: that there's Thompson and Butterfield are in in competition as well,

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Speaker 3: but I assume that he will be the starter against

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Speaker 3: Georgia in Week one. Nix's numbers, you know, haven't been

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Speaker 3: that impressive, but he also has had three different offensive

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Speaker 3: coordinators the past three years. Where did he look I

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Speaker 3: think the most comfortable, and that was in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 3: is you know, his freshman campaign when he was under

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Speaker 3: current offensive coordinator for Oregon Tillingham. So maybe you know

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Speaker 3: it's the first time he's going to have the same

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Speaker 3: officse coordinator for the second time, even though it was

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Speaker 3: three seasons ago. But here, I'll make my case for Oregon,

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Speaker 3: and I think you're going to make your case for Utah.

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Speaker 3: But for me, what put me over the edge is

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Speaker 3: no divisions, and I just think that Oregon. You know,

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Speaker 3: I haven't power rated ahead of USC, and I have

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Speaker 3: them barely marginally below buying Utah. Here's the thing Oregon

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Speaker 3: from a schedule perspective, they won the lotter, they avoid USC,

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Speaker 3: and they host Utah in a game that I project

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Speaker 3: them as a small favorite. They win that game, you're

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Speaker 3: in the driver's seat to go to the Pack twelve championship.

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Speaker 3: If you beat Utah at home and I make them

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Speaker 3: a small favorite, I get them plus three hundred compared

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Speaker 3: to Utah plus two to the USC plus one seventy.

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Speaker 3: I think it's being extremely overroud here. And then look

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Speaker 3: at their roads schedule for Oregon, Washington State, Arizona, cal Colorado,

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Speaker 3: and Oregon State. You cannot get an easier road schedule

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Speaker 3: in the Pac twelve if you were crafting it yourself,

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Speaker 3: and you get to like I said, you get to

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Speaker 3: avoid USC and you host Utah. Meanwhile, Utah gets USC

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Speaker 3: and they must travel to both UCLA and Oregon. USC

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Speaker 3: has a pair of road dates against Utah and UCLA.

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Speaker 3: So there are some questions on this Oregon roster, but

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Speaker 3: it's I mean, you can't question the talent. The offensive

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Speaker 3: line should be great. I think bo Nicks be fine,

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Speaker 3: especially going from like the SEC to the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 2: It's a bow time boom, like a powder keg in

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Speaker 2: your mouth sucking style.

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to be an upgrade over Anthony Brown,

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Speaker 3: who I never was a fan of the defense. Excellent linebacker.

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Speaker 3: I like their depth on the defensive line. Now they

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Speaker 3: lost a lot in the secondary, but I'm actually okay

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Speaker 3: with their corner situation with the Colorado transfer Christian Gonzales

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Speaker 3: and the five star sophomore Dante Manning. So I actually

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Speaker 3: think their defense is gonna be okay, especially with Landing

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Speaker 3: at the helm. I couldn't pass up the chance quack

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Speaker 3: quack three to one. I think this Oregon team is

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Speaker 3: going to give Georgia a game to start off the air.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't really matter for my bet. Maybe it gives

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Speaker 3: them some good experience, you know, playing against Georgia in

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Speaker 3: the first week. But I think they're being undervalued here.

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Speaker 3: USC is being overvaled. I'm sure that's going to be

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Speaker 3: part of your case for Utah. But give me the Ducks.

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Speaker 1: We lost a few games tough for the Ducks. Ducks

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Speaker 1: are undefeated.

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Speaker 3: To make your case for your beloved utes.

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Speaker 1: Well, I don't disagree with you on Oregon.

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Speaker 2: I actually think they're the ones who face Utah in

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Speaker 2: the Pac twelve championship game. So you're getting good value

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Speaker 2: with a team that I think is going to meet Utah.

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Speaker 2: And I love Bonix going there. We are a Bonux podcast,

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Speaker 2: and hopefully his accuracy will pick up with his arm strength.

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Speaker 1: The decision making has.

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Speaker 2: Come along, and we kind of have with bo Nix

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Speaker 2: exactly what we're seeing with Dylan Gabriel. Right, you meet

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Speaker 2: up with your offensive coordinator from your freshman year and

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Speaker 2: hopefully magic will turnout. So I think Oregon's going to

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Speaker 2: completely rebound from losing Travis Dye. I think their defensive

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Speaker 2: interior is insanely good for the Pac twelve, and their

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Speaker 2: offensive line is going to get him through.

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Speaker 1: So I do like them.

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Speaker 2: But Utah for me, is the team that's going to

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Speaker 2: win this conference and hopefully with one loss so they

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Speaker 2: can make the playoff. I mean, I've been calling for

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Speaker 2: Utah to make the playoff for years, but you know

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Speaker 2: they're getting seventy two percent of their offense back, sixty

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Speaker 2: six percent back on defense, more Importantly, they're hosting the

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Speaker 2: USC game, which is probably going to be the tiebreaker

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Speaker 2: needed to get into the Pac twelve championship game. Utah

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Speaker 2: is going to be favored in every single game this season,

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Speaker 2: albeit a close pick against Florida, USC and Oregon. And

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Speaker 2: Cam Rising is a Heisman dark horse candidate. There's there's

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Speaker 2: no doubt about it. You can't watch that Rose bowlt

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Speaker 2: film and not think that if he brings that every week,

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Speaker 2: he can win the Heisman, which would be crazy for

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Speaker 2: a quarterback west of the Mississippi River, quarterback that most

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Speaker 2: people on the East Coast won't see. He returns sixty

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Speaker 2: percent of most of his weapons in the backfield on

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Speaker 2: the outside, sixty percent of his offensive line STAPs. You

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Speaker 2: know he's going to use a bunch of tight ends.

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Speaker 2: Tavian Thomas is still there. He was second in the

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Speaker 2: Pac twelve and broken tackles per attempt. So, I mean

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Speaker 2: they have it everywhere in every single unit. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: run quick game, passing zone runs, occasional bombs from Rising.

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Speaker 2: I just you know they were top ten and third

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Speaker 2: downs last year. They're extremely well coached. And then the

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Speaker 2: defense is probably what leads Utah all these years, and

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Speaker 2: it's going to happen this year too. They're going to

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Speaker 2: get seventy nine percent of their PBUs back. That's a

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Speaker 2: that's great for defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley. He's running that

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Speaker 2: four two five. It gives a lot of teams in

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Speaker 2: the Pac twelve issues that's going to continue. They were

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Speaker 2: thirteenth in Havoc last year. I don't see that dropping off.

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Speaker 2: And so the win total I think is a solid

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Speaker 2: bed at nine. I projected at ten point eight. But

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Speaker 2: the better bet is this is the Oklahoma treatment from

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Speaker 2: our Big twelve conferences in the past. Do you see

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Speaker 2: Utah finishing third in this conference? Highly unlikely. So I

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Speaker 2: would take a Pac twelve championship ticket in my pocket

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Speaker 2: and just I cannot see away this team falls to

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Speaker 2: third in the conference. So I think I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: playing the same angle as you. I think Oregon's great too.

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Speaker 2: I just would rather take a game of the year

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Speaker 2: on their schedule than wrap up a season long investment

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Speaker 2: when I'm almost more positive that Utah is a team

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Speaker 2: it's going to be in that championship game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Utah's not without questions. I mean they

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Speaker 3: did lose offensive lineman of the NFL. They lost their

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Speaker 3: top four tacklers. The one thing that I you know,

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Speaker 3: the minebacker is the big question with Utah. The defensive

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Speaker 3: line is going to be fine. Their second it should

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Speaker 3: actually improve significantly just by getting a bunch of guys

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Speaker 3: back from injury. If you recall that Ohio State game

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Speaker 3: when the Jigbo went bananas, uh, they had they had

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Speaker 3: a running back playing corner in that game because they

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Speaker 3: had so many injuries. So their secondary situation, well, there

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Speaker 3: is some questions at one corner spot should be significantly

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Speaker 3: better because they get a bunch of guys back from injury.

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Speaker 3: How how big is the loss of Britain Kobe. They

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Speaker 3: do get five of the top other six receivers back,

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Speaker 3: and their tight end might be the best in all

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Speaker 3: of college football. They do a five conference away games

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Speaker 3: plus at Florida to start the year. I'm at your

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Speaker 3: ten eight. Wow, I'm at like nine seven, so I

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Speaker 3: would certainly lean over, but it's a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean I'm double digit favorite. Seven times

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Speaker 3: have I actually have them? Was a small underdog at Oregon,

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Speaker 3: a small favorite at Florida, and then three other times

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Speaker 3: their favorite around seven points, so you know, ten times

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Speaker 3: they're a favorite of a touchdown or more per my numbers.

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Speaker 3: And then you have coin flips coin flipisch games against

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Speaker 3: Oregon in Florida because I'm lower on USC. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I have Utah at home is like a seven point

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Speaker 3: favorite as of right now against USC. Did you say

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Speaker 3: ut yeah, yeah, so the US he went on over

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Speaker 3: nine and a half minus one ten. Utah is over

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Speaker 3: you know, you can get over eight and a half

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Speaker 3: minus one seventy or over nine, and then Oregon is

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Speaker 3: over eight and a half minus one thirty. I like that.

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Speaker 3: I'm nine and a half for Oregon, so I would

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Speaker 3: play that over too. But I prefer the conference future

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Speaker 3: just because there's a there's uncertainty with Nicks, you know,

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Speaker 3: and the receiver, so you know, instead of the win total,

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Speaker 3: I think if they get to nine wins, assuming George

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Speaker 3: is a loss, they're going to be in the Pac

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Speaker 3: twelve title game. So I prefer the plus three hundred there.

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Speaker 3: But let's talk USC. Very polarizing team in the offseason obviously,

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Speaker 3: you know, we want to talk about transfer quarterbacks. They

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Speaker 3: have one, Okayla Williams came from Oklahoma as did Lincoln

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Speaker 3: Riley Mary Williams. Did they crushed the transfer portal, especially

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Speaker 3: on the offensive side of the ball. Do you add

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Speaker 3: in the Blandic GoF Winner and Jordan Adison from pitt

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Speaker 3: Late to their wide receiver room is absolutely loaded. They

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Speaker 3: have skill position players for days. If you just go

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Speaker 3: down the line up, go down the roster and be like, wow, wow, okay, wow,

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Speaker 3: they crushed the portal. You have Lincoln Riley in there. Now,

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Speaker 3: I think I have n't rated as a number one

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Speaker 3: transfer portal team in the country. He brings Alex Grinch

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Speaker 3: over as his new defensive coordinator, new scheme in at USC,

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Speaker 3: and then there's new offensive coordinator, but Riley will call

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Speaker 3: the plays there. Last year USC went four and eight,

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Speaker 3: a very disappointing year for them, obviously an upgrade a coach.

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Speaker 3: They could start eleven transfers. Depth is sort of an issue,

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Speaker 3: but the biggest thing is what is going to What

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Speaker 3: can Riley do in one year with this roster. The

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Speaker 3: offense should be excellent, but there are questions on the

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Speaker 3: offensive line in regards to depth. Although the Virginia transfer

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Speaker 3: tackle is not projected starter right now, so maybe some

249
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Speaker 3: of the younger players are showing out well in camp,

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Speaker 3: but I mean I didn't even mention the Travis Stytt

251
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Speaker 3: from Moregon, Rice the wide receiver from Colorado. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you can go on and on and on, and the

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Speaker 3: defense has I think the biggest questions on the team.

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Speaker 3: For me, it's getting rave reviews from Lincoln Riley, but

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Speaker 3: that's coach. There's certainly questions at cornerback outside of Blackman

256
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Speaker 3: big Get, he's their top corner from Colorado. Just mentioned

257
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Speaker 3: Oregon starting corner from Colorado. Colorada lost both of their

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Speaker 3: starting cornerbacks. We'll get to the Buffaloes interconference that will

259
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Speaker 3: start for two of the favorites in the league. So

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Speaker 3: there's new schemes, there's lots of transfers. You do at

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Speaker 3: least have a head coach with his you know who's

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Speaker 3: calling a call, plays, who brought his quarterback over? But

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Speaker 3: that's questions in the trenches on both sides. It's a

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Speaker 3: sexy team, you know if you look Lincoln Riley, Kleb Williams,

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Speaker 3: all the talent they brought in the transfer portal. But

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Speaker 3: I definitely think it's an over valued team. High variants here.

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Speaker 3: How's it all going to work. I project them their

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Speaker 3: win totals nine and a half over nine and a

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Speaker 3: half minus one ten, I project them eight nine. So

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Speaker 3: Eileen under here and that's yeah. I mean, you remember

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Speaker 3: there's a team that's twenty two and twenty one over

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Speaker 3: the past four years. They do miss Washington and Oregon

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Speaker 3: on the schedule, but as we mentioned, they do go

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Speaker 3: to Utah and they go to Ucla. They also have

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame on this schedule and Fresno State at home also,

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Speaker 3: which might be a tricky group of five opponent. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, it was hard for me to project where

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Speaker 3: USC is going to be just because there's so much unknown.

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Speaker 3: There's so much uncertainty here with how good this offense

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Speaker 3: actually can be. What is the defense going to look like?

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Speaker 3: Under Brench I don't necessarily love with a scheme change.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm still under. You know, you could tell

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Speaker 3: me you were an eight and a half. You can

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Speaker 3: tell me or nine a half. I probably won't bet

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Speaker 3: it just because of how much uncertainular on there. It's

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Speaker 3: just not enough of an edge for me to play.

287
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Speaker 3: But I'd certainly lean under. That's the way I would go.

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Speaker 3: It's under nothing. You like the under Here.

289
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Speaker 1: Oh, I love the under here.

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Speaker 2: It opened up nine and a half I think plus

291
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Speaker 2: one thirty at FanDuel, so I was happy enough to

292
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Speaker 2: go lay into that number as much as I could

293
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Speaker 2: a few months ago, and now it's down to minus

294
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Speaker 2: one ten. I project this a point two, and I

295
00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:32,720
Speaker 2: think there's a lot of usc that we see in LSU.

296
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Speaker 2: We can't accurately project this team through a spreadsheet. Number

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Speaker 2: one in players game through the portal. Twenty players gained

298
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Speaker 2: number three in number of snaps gained through the portal,

299
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Speaker 2: and they're over thirteen thousand.

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Speaker 1: So you know, it's the same thing with LSU, like,

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Speaker 1: how many of these guys do we have?

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Speaker 2: Does that mean that we're not going to have any

303
00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 2: depth issues? Does that mean we're going to have locker

304
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 2: room clashes about starting playing time? And you know, without

305
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 2: revealing any sources or anything, there's already rumbling is going

306
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 2: on within that locker room about some players not getting

307
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,840
Speaker 2: their NIL deals, some players not getting what they were promised,

308
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 2: some players not happy with the fact that Caleb Williams had.

309
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Speaker 1: Four hundred and sixteen four and sixteen yards last year.

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Speaker 2: On designed runs and that he's not giving that up

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Speaker 2: there's not enough balls to go around for the number

312
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Speaker 2: of players that came in on this offense. So if

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Speaker 2: you were somebody that was close to getting twenty targets

314
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Speaker 2: a game and now you're shaved down to eight targets

315
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Speaker 2: a game, that's not going to sit real well with you.

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Speaker 2: And we're already starting to hear some whispers come out that,

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Speaker 2: you know, some players are not happy with how many

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Speaker 2: times they're going to see the ball. So we'll see

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Speaker 2: how that plays out from a locker room perspective. And

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Speaker 2: no one is questioning that this team can score fifty

321
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Speaker 2: points a game. The skilled positions are some of the

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Speaker 2: best in the nation, but how are they going to

323
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Speaker 2: deal with less targets and less touches? And you know,

324
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Speaker 2: for the defense, complete unknown. That's the reason why my

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00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 2: power rating didn't go up very much for USC. A

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Speaker 2: lot of questions on defense. Now Alex Grinch comes in,

327
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Speaker 2: and you know, he can get that Havoc number going.

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Speaker 2: He can bump that up into the top twenty five,

329
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Speaker 2: like he has a Washington State. He did at Oklahoma,

330
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Speaker 2: But this USC defense was bottom fifteen and tackling finishing

331
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Speaker 2: drives and a lot of other categories there's a lot

332
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 2: of work to do here, and so you know, I

333
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 2: think their edge positions have some questions, or linebackers have

334
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 2: some questions. And I can see USC being seven to

335
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 2: zero heading into October fifteenth against Utah. But there are

336
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 2: offenses on this schedule, and we're going to talk about

337
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,360
Speaker 2: them because they're all conference games that can put up

338
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:28,520
Speaker 2: points in a flash. Stanford, Fresno, Oregon State, Wazoo. These

339
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,640
Speaker 2: teams can score in bunches and score fast, but they're

340
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Speaker 2: kind of a water down version of USC. They can't defend.

341
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Speaker 2: So there's going to be a lot of fifty one

342
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 2: to fifty ball games. And if you're going to say

343
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 2: that this team has to win, you know, ten out

344
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:42,879
Speaker 2: of twelve to get over their win total, and a

345
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Speaker 2: bunch of games where the opponent scores at least forty

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the under here. I mean I projected eight

347
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 2: point two, but throw that out. There's no answers on

348
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,640
Speaker 2: this defense, so you know, if they're not efficient enough

349
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:54,200
Speaker 2: to keep opponents out of the end zone and a

350
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Speaker 2: league full of you know, rising offenses, I'm going to

351
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Speaker 2: take the under.

352
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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I have them favored over a touchdown eight

353
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,760
Speaker 3: times double digit favorite seven and I have them like

354
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 3: minus four at Oregon State plus seven as I mentioned

355
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,199
Speaker 3: at Utah, and then they have two true coin flips

356
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,400
Speaker 3: to close the air Notre Dame at home and then

357
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,880
Speaker 3: at UCLA or in reverse order they close with Notre

358
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 3: Dame at home. But the end other date you bring

359
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,679
Speaker 3: in all the skill position talent with Lincoln Ronalley. If

360
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 3: you're a USC fan, what you're saying is the offensive

361
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,479
Speaker 3: line was pretty good last year from a metrics standpoint,

362
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 3: and they started two freshmen at tack both tackles for

363
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 3: the first seven games. So there's a lot to like

364
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 3: about the offense. Is the question is what can the defense?

365
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 3: Do you know in potential Pac twelve shootouts? But yeah,

366
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 3: I think it's under or nothing here, but certainly a

367
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 3: high variance team. So we'll we'll close out the old

368
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 3: South UCLA over eight and a half plus one hundred.

369
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 3: I project them at eight point five to nine wins.

370
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,160
Speaker 3: Lots of coaching changes here. You have a new OC,

371
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,639
Speaker 3: no new DC, other coaches on the staff, but you

372
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 3: do have dtr at quarterback. Of course, Chip Kelly back

373
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,639
Speaker 3: at head's coach, and he's gonna be the offensive coordinator

374
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,160
Speaker 3: calling plays the very transfer re alignant, which is a

375
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 3: theme in the PAC twelve this year. What do you

376
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 3: see with UCLA here? I do have them a double

377
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 3: edg your favorite seven times. I've a double digit dog

378
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 3: once three coin flips, and like plus six or seven

379
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 3: against Utah, who they do host. They do have a

380
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 3: pretty easy schedule for UCLA because you start out bowling

381
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 3: Green at home Alabama, stayed at home South Alabama, at

382
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 3: home at Colorado, home against Washington before a home date

383
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 3: against Utah. Realistic, you're starting five to zero and building

384
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 3: a lot of momentum gelling with you know, a lot

385
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 3: of these transfers who are coming in new coaches, some

386
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:54,479
Speaker 3: new schemes. So that's the feel good story about UCLA.

387
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 3: You can build a lot of momentum early, but you

388
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 3: do lose your top three pass catchers two to the NFL.

389
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 3: You lose three offensive line starters, your offensive line coach.

390
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 3: You know, only they only played two defensive linemen a lot.

391
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 3: I actually they lost both of them. They lost their

392
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 3: top three linebackers. Their entire front seven is transferver liant,

393
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: and their d was great against the run last year

394
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 3: and awful against the pass and they lost almost you know,

395
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 3: the replacing almost their entire front seven. But the schedule

396
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 3: leads me to I would lean over here, But like

397
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 3: I said, I make it eight point six. It's over

398
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 3: eight and a half plus one hundred. What do you

399
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 3: see with UCLI and Chip by the way, as two

400
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 3: wins in his tenure at UCLA against teams with a

401
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 3: winning record, and we two.

402
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 2: What a stat I didn't even know that. I love UCLA.

403
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: They were our most fun team to bet on last year.

404
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 2: I knew DTR was going to have improvement over quarterback

405
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 2: coach when Ryan Gunderson came in from San Jose State,

406
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 2: and we saw that in the numbers it was his

407
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 2: best year. Yet he also had a lot less pressure

408
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,679
Speaker 2: last year. I think that should be noted that is

409
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 2: it coaching or is it the fact that he had

410
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 2: an offensive line state end up? And yeah, Zach Charbonney

411
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 2: comes back at running back and this should be an

412
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 2: elite ground attack. But there's a lot of missing stamps

413
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 2: on this offensive line. You know, I think you know

414
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 2: they were a top twenty five. They got Dorian Thompson

415
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 2: Robinson to be top twenty five and turnover worthy play

416
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 2: rate of all p five quarterbacks, and that's a major

417
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 2: step up from him, and he was thirteenth in average

418
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 2: depth of target and sixteenth highest and PFF grading of

419
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: all P five quarterbacks. But the offensive line has a

420
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 2: ton of replacements, especially on the interior, and that makes

421
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: me a little bit nervous, not just about dtr throwing

422
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 2: in passing downs, but how quick are they going to

423
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 2: get into passing downs when you have taken a couple

424
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: of hits in the backfield and we don't know if

425
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 2: you're going to be able to rush the ball as well,

426
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 2: get those highlight yards, get those opportunity rate and stuff

427
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 2: rate because the offensive line is replacing some new guys.

428
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 2: And then you look over on the defensive side of

429
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,479
Speaker 2: the ball. Not that Jerry Asnarrow was adding anything as

430
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 2: a defensive coordinator, but we are going to have a

431
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: change and who the coordinator is.

432
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 3: With only two returning starters.

433
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: With only two returning starters, yeah, I mean they were

434
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 2: below fifty per cent and TARP and you know they're

435
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: gonna get a wealthy amount of pressures back. But other

436
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: than that, you know, I mean they have transfers coming in.

437
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: The reason why I had them up around eighty percent

438
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 2: of their pressures coming back is because of edge rushers

439
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: Grayson and Gabriel Murphy brothers that are coming in to

440
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 2: play the edge position. Ucla is one of those teams

441
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 2: that dipped into Wyoming. Wyoming is acting like a double

442
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 2: a farm system for for everybody in college football this year.

443
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,479
Speaker 2: But they do get Corner a Z's hearn. So you know,

444
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 2: I put them at eight point one. I'm not taking

445
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 2: I'm not running to get it under but there's no

446
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 2: way I'm taking it over because I have issues with

447
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 2: what they have on the interior offensive line and a

448
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 2: ground based attack with a quarterback that has to have

449
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:40,719
Speaker 2: a clean pocket.

450
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: That's not a good formula.

451
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 2: So as much as I loved him last year, we

452
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 2: kind of put UCLA to bed and we'll see how

453
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: it turns out and we'll pick our spots on this schedule.

454
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, lose ten of their top fifteen tackles. The defense

455
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 3: is the unit to watch, you know, and they got

456
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 3: also to have some pass catchers step up. But the defense,

457
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: you know, new scheme, new coaches, and and the offensive

458
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 3: line too that the offensive line could really stunt the

459
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 3: offense once there's a lot of questions very transfer liant,

460
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 3: so a lot of variants with UCLA speaking of a

461
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 3: high variant Temon transfers Arizona State over five and a

462
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 3: half minus one fifty five or over six. You know,

463
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 3: I really interesting team because is HERM Edwards is going

464
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 3: to make it through the year? What is going to

465
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,959
Speaker 3: hap there? You know, all this just a crazy offseason

466
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 3: and they've had a crazy couple of years dealing with

467
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 3: all of the off the field stuff that has served

468
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 3: as a potential distraction for Arizona State. They only returned

469
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 3: seven total starters, three on offense, four and defense. That's

470
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,199
Speaker 3: the fewest in the Pac twelve. And one of their

471
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:47,199
Speaker 3: projected starters, Mattis, their defensive end got her yesterday's out

472
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 3: for the year. Huge loss for a defensive line that

473
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 3: was going to have to carry this defense. You know,

474
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 3: HERM Edwards and a new defensive coordinator. They do no

475
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: secondary as well, and that's their strength. But they lost

476
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 3: two corners to the NFL. They also lost the defensive

477
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: lineman in the NFL. They had a linebacker who just

478
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 3: found his way under the Raiders or rosters. They lost

479
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:11,239
Speaker 3: four defenders and to the NFL, and you know, one

480
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 3: of their best defensive lineman to the transport of the

481
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 3: defensive coordinator from a defense that I had in the

482
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 3: top fifteen, I had to finish the year. Last year,

483
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 3: the defense was excellent. Last year it carried Arizona State.

484
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 3: I have to mention penalties. Penalties have been a major

485
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 3: major issue with Arizona State. We've seen that for years.

486
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: But Herm Edwards, for all the shit that he's dealt with,

487
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: he has gotten them to boiligibility at least in all

488
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 3: five years.

489
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 1: You play to win the game, hello, You play to

490
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 1: win the game.

491
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: You don't play to just play it. Lots of questions

492
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 3: with this team, including who's going to start a quarterback? Right?

493
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 3: You have Tyson the Alabama transfer, and then Emory Jones,

494
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 3: who I thought would be named the starting yet I

495
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 3: haven't seen anything the dire say. Herm Edwards said he's

496
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 3: going to name them shortly. He's keeping this tight as best.

497
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 3: He doesn't want to disclose to the starters to Northern

498
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 3: Arizona finds out in week one. I don't know. I

499
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 3: would assume Memory Jones gets the job, but I'm not

500
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 3: sure they You know, they lost their quarterback Jim Daniels,

501
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 3: who transferre to LSU. There are two leading rushers, three

502
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: offensive linemen, top two wide receivers. They had more than

503
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 3: a dozen scholarship players transfer, and you know the offensive

504
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: line is going to be extremely transfer liant, and there's

505
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 3: some shuffling of positions there. You could start six transfers

506
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 3: on offense and four on defense. As I mentioned, their

507
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 3: secondary was gutted. They lost a defensive end to injury,

508
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 3: really important defensive end to injury yesterday. So now they're

509
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 3: abound eight of their top nine tacklers for last year

510
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: from last year. So you know, they do avoid Oregon

511
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 3: out of the North and they get to host Utah

512
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 3: and UCLA. They do go to USC. Their road games

513
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 3: are Oklahoma State, USC Stanford, Colorado, Washington State, and Arizona.

514
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: Not terrible when you have Colorado, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford there.

515
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 3: I project them and I was shocked. They're what are there?

516
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 3: Over six? I project them at like six eight. Now,

517
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 3: obviously there's a lot going on with this team with

518
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,199
Speaker 3: only six now six returning starters, new offense porer, new

519
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,239
Speaker 3: defense porner. We still don't know who the quarterback is.

520
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: Extremely transfer line, but I would lean over here with

521
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 3: Arizona State might come down to their season finale though.

522
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 3: At Arizona what are your thoughts here?

523
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 2: I completely agree, which is why I like the over

524
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: five and a half when it came out more than

525
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 2: I like the six. So if you're shopping around there,

526
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 2: I do like the over, but I would really work

527
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: hard to see your finacy. I of a five and

528
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 2: a half is still out there. This is one of

529
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 2: the highest fluidity rates in the portal out there. I mean,

530
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: we've mentioned LSU and USC so far, but Arizona State's

531
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 2: right up there. Thirteen players game through the portal, over

532
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: ten thousand snaps game from the portal. Both of those

533
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: are top ten in their respective categories. Losing Jayden Dani

534
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 2: to LSU but gaining Emery Jones. Believe it or not,

535
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 2: the numbers say that Emery Jones is positive. It is

536
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 2: a positive. He's more safe at the quarterback position overall,

537
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 2: So you know, there a lot of positions are like this.

538
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 2: They've brought guys in from the portal that are going

539
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 2: to be as good as what they had or even better. Uh,

540
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 2: and they're going to be able to run the ball.

541
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: Sixty percent of the offensive line is back from the

542
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 2: snat from a SNAT perspective.

543
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 3: UH.

544
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: With the with the transfers coming in and running, you know,

545
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 2: running back transfer z Zavian Valida joins from Wyoming. There

546
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 2: we go with the Wyoming farm system again. And you know,

547
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 2: they got plenty of defensive players back. It's going to

548
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 2: be a little bit of a question whether they can tackle.

549
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 2: They lost so much out of the secondary.

550
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 3: Uh.

551
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 2: And you know defensive tackle nests to Jade Silvera comes

552
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 2: over from Miami to stabilize the defensive line and he

553
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 2: was eighteenth in run defense grading of all P five

554
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 2: defensive interior players. So what I'm saying is we've lost

555
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: a lot of brand names that you remember from this

556
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 2: Arizona State team, but we've backfilled with players that had

557
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: just as good advanced statistics as a players that were

558
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: already there. So I didn't understand what the huge drop

559
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 2: off was for books to like post this at five

560
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 2: and a half, it's at six, I make it seven.

561
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: I would still bet over six. I would bet it

562
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,360
Speaker 2: for a lot lighter. See if you can five fine

563
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: five and a half. But this is a play on team.

564
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: And if you don't think herm Edwards is not going

565
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 2: into that final game against Arizona with five wins and

566
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 2: not like pumping them up to the max to get that,

567
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: you know, bowl eligible win and that might be their

568
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: super Bowl, right, that might be their bowl game? Is

569
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 2: that Arizona game if they get you know, canned from

570
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 2: going to postseason having postseason eligibility. So yeah, definitely I

571
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: think that they can hit the six mark and I

572
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 2: would play the over.

573
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have them as a double digit underdog

574
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: in any games this year. I mean, I having plus

575
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 3: nine at home against Utah, plus nine at USC but

576
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 3: they have a lot of coin flips on the schedule,

577
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 3: but certainly an intriguing team. I think I'm probably gonna

578
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: wait to see how everything shakes out and then play

579
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: them on a game the game basis. But I would

580
00:28:56,040 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: my numbers say that the over, and also whoever wins

581
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 3: a quarterback position, but penalties and special teams can term

582
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 3: you gotta clean both of those issues up. Let's stay

583
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: in the same state and go to Arizona over two

584
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 3: and a half minus one sixty five over three around

585
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 3: even money. I make this win total four point zero three,

586
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: and there's a chance that Arizona could be one of

587
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 3: the most improved teams in the country that one and

588
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 3: eleven last year, but they were one in five in

589
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 3: one possession games. They were one hundred and thirtieth in

590
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 3: turnover marchin negative seventeen turnover margin. They obviously were extremely

591
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 3: unlucky on offense with the quarterback injuries they had but

592
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: three quarterbacks get hurt. And then on defense they only

593
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 3: had six takeaways. That don brown aggressive plitzink defense cause

594
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: six takeaways. That's the fewest, and they'll past twenty five

595
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 3: years for a team it fully forced four fuffles at

596
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 3: two interceptions. That's just crazy non COVID year. By the way,

597
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 3: there was fewer by some teams of twenty t twenty.

598
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: Even if as a coordinator comes in you see more

599
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 3: zone less blitz, I would assume that you're going to

600
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: get more takeaways this year. Just simple regression to the

601
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 3: mean after last year. One of the two things that

602
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: give me some hesitation with Arizona if you do look

603
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 3: at their schedule, you know I have them as a

604
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 3: seven plus point dog seven times double digitalg five of

605
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 3: those seven I have them favored in two games, right,

606
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, maybe three North Dakota State. I gotta do

607
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 3: work on, but I assume that's a kind of a

608
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 3: coin flip game. It was one of their home games

609
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: against North Dakota State, who's the best FCS team. I

610
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 3: still have to do work in projecting that's spread, but

611
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 3: I'm assuming it's around a coin flip. They start opening

612
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 3: the season plus six at San Diego State. It shows

613
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: you what the market, what odds makers think of this

614
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 3: Arizona team. But I have them favored, you know, by

615
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: ten at home against Colorado. I have them, you know,

616
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 3: favored at home four or five points against Washington State,

617
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 3: Arizona State at home, last game of the year, sort

618
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 3: of a coin flip. At CAL, sort of a coin flip.

619
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 3: So there's some winnable games on this schedule, but they

620
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 3: do face all the league's top teams. Plus you know,

621
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 3: it is a very tough non conference schedule. They start

622
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 3: at Santego State and they get Mississippi State at home.

623
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: But like I said, they are four very winnable games

624
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: plus that, you know, and that Cal. You could argue

625
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 3: five very winnable games on the schedule. It's over two

626
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 3: and a half over three. I project four looks pretty intriguing.

627
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 3: The two major questions that I do have is you know,

628
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 3: there's a lot of freshmen and they were the top

629
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 3: twenty five recruiting class this year. And one of the

630
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 3: reasons Jedfish was able to do that is he promised

631
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: them a lot of playing time and he said, look,

632
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 3: come here and you can play. So there's a really

633
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 3: talented freshmen that are going to play. So, you know,

634
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: again kind of like transfer's with a lot of variants

635
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 3: with how that's actually going to work out, semi risky.

636
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 3: And then Jaden Delara, who comes in from Washington State,

637
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: will be the starting quarterback for Arizona. Jetfish his system

638
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 3: pro style system very similar to the Rams in what

639
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 3: the Rams run out of the same concepts. It's a

640
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 3: completely different system for Dolora, who struggled at times in

641
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 3: fall camp and it's you know, it's all about timing.

642
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 3: And last year with all these quarterbacks, they kept saying

643
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 3: how complex the offense is, so changing. Joy is gone

644
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: from a completely different scheme, you know, doing a one

645
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 3: to eighty in the scheme coming from Washington State to Arizona,

646
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 3: So how is that going to work out? But this

647
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 3: is certainly a team that is on the rise compared

648
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 3: to last year positive aggression candidate. I'm very close to

649
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: This is my last scratch, so I'm very close to

650
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 3: adding this over. You agree here, you like the over

651
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 3: on Arizona.

652
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm over Arizona. Project them at four. I'll take

653
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 2: over three of minus one fifteen. It is one of

654
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 2: the toughest schedules in Power five. I mean they're opening

655
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: up snap Dragon Stadium against San Diego State. They got

656
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 2: Misstate on there North Dakota State. If that game would

657
00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: have been played at the end of last season, Saguran

658
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: would have made that game sixteen. So we'll see if

659
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 2: Arizona has made it up in Power rating points. They

660
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 2: returned eighty six percent of the offense, but just half

661
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: of their offensive line snaps. So we mentioned Jaden Delore

662
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: having you know, issues in fall camp, but he's not

663
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 2: going to get any protection and neither is any quarterback

664
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: that comes in there for a while. He had really

665
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: good numbers at Washington State. I mean he was twenty

666
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 2: eight to thirteen td to iront at five rushing tds

667
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 2: and you know he was top twenty and an average

668
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: depth of target. But he does make a lot of mistakes.

669
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 2: They do get wide receiver Jacob Cowing transferring in from UTEP.

670
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 3: How good Nation.

671
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: We're talking minor Nation out in the West Dixons town

672
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: of Lpast.

673
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: So picks up.

674
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, Minor Nation was went to a bowl and they

675
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: were cruising. Last year.

676
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: Jacob Cowing three point eight two yards per route run.

677
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: You need two to be an explosive player to be

678
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 2: considered an explosive player. He's almost doubled that up. So

679
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: we can expect plenty of play action from offensive coordinator

680
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: Berning Carroll. And then you look at the other side

681
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 2: of the ball. You Don Brown's out. He's now the

682
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 2: UMass head coach.

683
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: Good luck to you.

684
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 4: Solve your problems with aggression. Okay, sit there and go, oh, we're.

685
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 3: Gonna read this pull. We're gonna run up the fuck that.

686
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: Let's call defensive corner coordinator Johnny Mazim comes in the

687
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 2: first time coordinator role. For him, sixty seven percent of

688
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 2: the defense is back. Nearly all of the passes defense

689
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 2: from last year is going to return, so at least

690
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 2: there some experience there. And you know Zona was dead

691
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 2: last and turnover margin last year, I mean there nobody

692
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: had a bigger turnover margin air issue problem than Arizona,

693
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: So you think maybe that would regress a little bit.

694
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 2: Hopefully at least some coaching is around for that. So

695
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: you know, the schedule's tough, but three wins is not

696
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 2: tough to get over. They definitely have the portal talent

697
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: that has come in. You know, they're they short up

698
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: their coaching staff a little bit. I think there's gonna

699
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: be more stability at the quarterback position. If we can

700
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 2: get the offensive line to you know, get within the

701
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,439
Speaker 2: top one hundred line yards and pass blocking, this team

702
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: can get the four wins on the schedule.

703
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: So you're right, they're they're the best biggest rising team

704
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: in the Pac twelve right now.

705
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 3: Yep, yeah, I think it's over or nothing. I think

706
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 3: they're heading the right direction. It's definitely an overplayer nothing.

707
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to close out their old

708
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 3: South with Colorado over three and a half plus one

709
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 3: forty five out there juiced under three and a half.

710
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 3: I love this under I love it to death. I

711
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 3: project them at two point three one wins. I would

712
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 3: be surprised if Durrell makes it through the year or

713
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 3: into next year. I'm not a fan quarterback competition year.

714
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 3: I'm not a fan of Brendan Lewis, I think he's terrible.

715
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 3: I'm not a fan. You know j T Strout, the

716
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 3: Tennessee transfer. Who knows what are you gonna get with him?

717
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: But the defense one hundred and twenty first in returning production.

718
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 3: Like I mentioned before, they lost both starting quarterbacks interconference.

719
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: That was their strength their defense last year. There's also

720
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 3: massive holes of Philip linebacker are transitioning to a four

721
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 3: to three D and the offense lost a ton from

722
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 3: skill position stand up. I mean, this team just got

723
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 3: crushed in the portal. They also lost a very productive

724
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 3: punter to the portal. There's just nothing I like about

725
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 3: this team. And then when I look at their schedule,

726
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 3: their schedule is absolutely vicious. They play I mean, you know,

727
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 3: you know you have a bad schedule when you play

728
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:29,959
Speaker 3: they played. This is their non confidence TCU at air

729
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 3: Force at Minnesota. They play eleven Power five teams and

730
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 3: their one exception is at air Force. That is brutal.

731
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 3: They are having double digit dogs in eleven games and

732
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 3: then a small home favorite against Cal. Good luck getting

733
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 3: the four wins. They hired a new offenseporter and Mike Sanford,

734
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 3: who I don't like. They have sixteen things all like

735
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 3: Carl Drell. It's just if they were plus sixteen turnover

736
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,760
Speaker 3: margin lest year two and one on one possession games.

737
00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 3: They got the four wins because and they got to

738
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 3: play as team now instead of the FCFS team. They're

739
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 3: playing at air Force. They lost six starters to the

740
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 3: Portal nineteen players overall, six new coaches, those five of

741
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 3: their top seven tackles on d Their defensive line will

742
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 3: be decent. If they go up against any team with

743
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 3: an offensive line, their secondary is going to get shredded.

744
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 3: There's freshmen all over in camp starting there is. Their

745
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 3: schedule is just brutal, too tough. They mentioned they're non

746
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 3: conference and they play the top six projected teams, all

747
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 3: six in the Pac twelve. They're winnable games. I guess

748
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 3: you could argue. Or at Arizona home against Cal and

749
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 3: home against Arizona State they win all three, they get

750
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 3: to three. I don't know where the fourth is coming from.

751
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 3: This team's bad under.

752
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 1: Well.

753
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 2: I mean, you hit the nail on the head when

754
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 2: you mentioned the new offensive coordinator, Mike Sandford Junior, possibly

755
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: our most favorite coach two fade in college football history.

756
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 2: If you're not familiar with the podcast. You're familiar with

757
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 2: listening to us about Sanford. He had a stint that

758
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: Boise didn't go well. Went to Notre Dame, they only

759
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 2: won four games, went to Western Kentucky, they were lifeless

760
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 2: on offense for a couple of years. Utah State was

761
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: chased out of there, and then he takes over for

762
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 2: Kirk Saraka at Minnesota and now, guess what, Serato's back.

763
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: He's not there.

764
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 2: Everywhere he has been, the offense has declined in every

765
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 2: single way that you can look at it. This is

766
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 2: his seventh different school since twenty thirteen.

767
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 1: If that tells you like how.

768
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 3: He has some nudes on that, like every coach.

769
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how he I don't know how

770
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:28,919
Speaker 1: he's in the Power five.

771
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: I thought he would regress even further, maybe get some

772
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 2: FCS schools going on. But you know, I could go

773
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: through everything Stuck just said.

774
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: But I agree with him.

775
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 2: The offense is just you know that Brandon Lewis was

776
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 2: a forgettable quarterback, took thirty one total sacks.

777
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 1: I don't see that stopping JT.

778
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 2: Shroud hasn't played since his forty two attempts for Tennessee

779
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. I don't know how r J. Sneed transferred.

780
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,439
Speaker 2: There must have been a hell of an il deal.

781
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 2: He's a great possess, great possession receiver if he's used correctly.

782
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: But I'm not sure that's gonna happen. So I agree

783
00:38:58,800 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: with Stuck.

784
00:38:59,120 --> 00:38:59,800
Speaker 1: I like to underhear.

785
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 2: But more importantly, that TCU line in week one that

786
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 2: should be about fourteen, maybe higher. I think it's going

787
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: to stop at about thirteen and a half. In Teeter,

788
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,359
Speaker 2: I took it a game of the year at ten.

789
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,399
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, game of year it's week one, but week

790
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 2: one I took TCU minus ten. Why because you're giving

791
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 2: me Mike Sanford junior at offensive coordinator versus Joseph Gillespie

792
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 2: is a defensive coordinator.

793
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: That's a joke.

794
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 3: So good luck, good luck to the Colorado freshman in

795
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 3: the secondary against those receivers at TCU. Yeah.

796
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, we're fade City on the buffs all year.

797
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 3: Yep. Yeah, there are two transfers at cornerback. Really crushed

798
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 3: them because you can do a live if you have

799
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: two really good corners and they both transferred late intraconference.

800
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the old North. We

801
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 3: already covered Oregon. Let's go to Washington, which was a

802
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 3: complete disaster last year under Jimmy Lake. Whole new staff.

803
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 3: Now you bring Kaitlin Divores head coach. He brought his

804
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 3: offense recording to Ryan up with him from Fresno, and

805
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,280
Speaker 3: you had two new code defensive coordinators from Fresno, basically

806
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,720
Speaker 3: a Fresno coaching staff. Now Washington was one hundred and seventeen,

807
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: the turn of margin, three and five, one possession games,

808
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 3: un ritual, four and eight record, including an opening season

809
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 3: loss at home to Montana, which really set the tone.

810
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 3: The quarterback play was almost offensive futrid all year long.

811
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 3: They had what they have ten touchdown passes and fifteen interceptions.

812
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 3: It is something disgusting. It was absolutely horrible from start

813
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 3: to finish at quarterback. But I think there's a lot

814
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 3: of reasons for optimism in Seattle, and I like the

815
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 3: over this year over seven and a half minus one

816
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 3: fifteen I played. I think you can get over seven

817
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 3: and a half minus one twenty minus one twenty five.

818
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: I think de war is gonna be Jimmy like. Things

819
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 3: were just messy even off the field. There's nothing was

820
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 3: going right. Quarterback plays should improve tremendously. With Michael Poenix

821
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 3: who is transferring in from Indiana and Phoenix Penis, I

822
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 3: say his name wrong every year. I'm going to say

823
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 3: it wrong all year again.

824
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 2: I say it out of the way that you're not

825
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 2: going to get El Paso and Missouri. Can we just

826
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 2: get it out of the way for everybody?

827
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 3: Now that's my delco roots showing from from Philly. But

828
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 3: there's a couple of names that I just always forget

829
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:29,760
Speaker 3: how to pronounce. And then I while I'm doing the podcast,

830
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 3: but I used to say Poenix, but it is Penix.

831
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 3: But I'm going to say Phoenix. I bet a couple

832
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 3: more times this year. But Penix comes in and he

833
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 3: thrid Indiana and twenty nineteen under then offense coordinator Debor.

834
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 3: This is a theme that we mentioned with Bo Nicks

835
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 3: Dylan Gabriel, and so I think there's gonna be approved

836
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:52,240
Speaker 3: quarterback play, at least just compety quarterback play, improved play calling.

837
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 3: The offense should be a lot better. The defense does

838
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 3: have to replace two first team All Pack twelve quarterbacks

839
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 3: who got drafted. That is a question. Another defensive back

840
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 3: also signed with the Bengals recently. So that's three defensive

841
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: backs for one of the best pass defense in the

842
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 3: country last year. But one of the reasons, you know,

843
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 3: they were really talented corners, but everyone just ran all

844
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: over Washington. Their run defense was horrific. Scheme change in

845
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 3: that department they were running, you know, the the two

846
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 3: four five. You're gonna come in here and you're gonna

847
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,240
Speaker 3: see more of a traditional four two five. I actually

848
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 3: like to fit for this defense, and that should improve

849
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 3: their run defense significantly. You're not gonna be able to

850
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 3: just run through them. I think Dom Hampton fits in

851
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 3: at the husky position really well. They'll have a lot

852
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 3: more bulk. I think up front, you gotta hope ZTF

853
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 3: is healthy and flashes you know what we saw a

854
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:45,879
Speaker 3: couple of years ago because Ulofoshia, that linebacker I think

855
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 3: is going to be out to like mid season. But

856
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,320
Speaker 3: they did add Camp Bright from Pitt their captain at linebacker,

857
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 3: which will help. And you know, so I think that

858
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 3: this team is on the upswing from a coaching and

859
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 3: quarterback perspective, which are the most important pieces based on

860
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 3: what we saw last year. And then if you look

861
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 3: at their schedule, you know, their toughest games, you're at

862
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 3: Oregon and at UCLA. We can count those as losses

863
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 3: and if we want. I mean, they're not not winnable,

864
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 3: but what's counted as lost. I have them going over

865
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 3: seven f I'm double digit favorites in eight games, and

866
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 3: then and then a couple coin flips, so you know

867
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 3: you start off. I even have small favorites against Michigan State,

868
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 3: which others might not have. They start off at home

869
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 3: against ken State, important state. I think that's really important.

870
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 3: This isn't an Oregon State. We'll talk about next who

871
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 3: has like Boise and Fresno to start. When you're gonna

872
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 3: have a new quarterback, you're gonna have new coaches. They

873
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 3: should start out too and out here, build some nice momentum.

874
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: Then you get Michigan State and then Stanford at home.

875
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 3: So I like how this schedule starts out. You avoid

876
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 3: USC in Utah out of the South, very easy home schedule,

877
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 3: so there's a lot of really easy home games that

878
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 3: they should pick up here. I think they get to

879
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 3: at least eight wins. A lot of it's based on schedule,

880
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 3: but I also like the coach in the quarterback upgrades,

881
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 3: so I'm going over with Washington.

882
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, lots of positives here, Kayln de Bor. We knew

883
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: when he was a offensive coordinator at Indiana that he

884
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 2: was going to be a great head coach and he

885
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 2: was going to take that uh you know, and we

886
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 2: didn't know he was going to go out to the

887
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 2: west coast of Fresno. We didn't know he's getting end

888
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 2: up at Washington as the head coach. But you know,

889
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 2: not only is this an easy schedule, Kaylin de Boor

890
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: knows how to win on the road because Ucla a

891
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 2: team that they considered one of the toughest road games.

892
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 2: Presne beat Ucla in Pasadena last year, So de Bor

893
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 2: is no stranger to winning on the road. You know,

894
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 2: there's so much room for improvement on the defensive side

895
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 2: of the ball. They were one hundred and eighteenth in linyards,

896
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 2: one hundred and twentieth and defending standard downs explosiveness. The

897
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 2: defense for Jimmy Lake was just as bad as the offense.

898
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 2: And this is a conference that's you know, extremely offensive happy.

899
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: So you know, there, I think that the room, the

900
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: defensive level is going to get turned up a little

901
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 2: bit from what they had last year. They have co

902
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 2: coordinators going into William Ingge and Chuck Morrow, they're going

903
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 2: to have their hands full because you know they they're

904
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: not going to in either PBUs back from their back

905
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 2: seven from last year. Asa Turner did take over the

906
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 2: safety position halfway through last year, so that's real positive

907
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: for them. That doesn't show up in the numbers for

908
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: a full season. And the Huskies get eighty five percent

909
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: of their offense back eighty percent of their offensive line,

910
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 2: So whether it's Michael PENNOCKX Junior or Sam Heward or

911
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 2: Dylan Morris, at least they're going to be protected. Maybe

912
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:23,959
Speaker 2: not in that Kent State game. They've already announced tackle

913
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 2: Jackson Kirkland. He's not going to line up in the opener,

914
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: but it shouldn't matter against Kent State's defensive line. You know,

915
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,919
Speaker 2: an offense according to Ryan Grubb, crumbs with de Bor

916
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 2: from Fresno, So there's a lot of familiarity here. There's

917
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 2: a lot of success in the past for Kaitlin to boor.

918
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 2: I think Washington at over seven and a half minus

919
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 2: one thirty probably the last number you want to take

920
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 2: from a juice perspective, but I project this at nine.

921
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 2: Like Stucky said, at least eight games where they're favored,

922
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 2: so you know this. To me, this is an over

923
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 2: all the way. My question is, can they get into

924
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 2: the pack towelve Championship game by not having Utah.

925
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: And USC on this schedule? It's they win at Oregon

926
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 1: on November twelve.

927
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 2: It's a possibility, but not going to go that high

928
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 2: yet until you know, we see that the offense is

929
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 2: capable of having explosive plays as well as some of

930
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 2: these other offenses that we know about.

931
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not quite as high as nine, but I'm

932
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 3: closer to eat and half, but right around were actually

933
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,919
Speaker 3: slightly below, but at eight and a half over seven

934
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 3: and a half, I like not to like about this team.

935
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 3: Let's move on to Oregon State over five and a

936
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: half minus one eighty or over six depending on the

937
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: juice that you know, closer to even money, depending on

938
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 3: the book that he is shot. And by the way,

939
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 3: make sure you shop around as always. Uh. Offensive line

940
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 3: was dominant last year, should be really good this year.

941
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 3: But they lose all the receivers and NFL running back

942
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 3: in the NFL tight end, Their defense is experienced, defensive

943
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 3: line must be better. It looks like chance Nolan won

944
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 3: the quarterback job. This team is boring to me. I

945
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 3: don't really care. And one of the reasons is and

946
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 3: if they start off with boys in an at Fresno,

947
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 3: it's probably gonna determine their wind total those two games.

948
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 3: I project them at six point zero zero zero zero zero,

949
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 3: like literally to the thousandth deskment point. I think that

950
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 3: they probably end six and six. They get the bow eligibility,

951
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 3: which is right around where the wind total is.

952
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 2: Nothing here, yeah, yeah, the juice is on the ender

953
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 2: and that's where it should be because I'm around six and

954
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 2: you know, listen, they're loaded at quarterback, at least from

955
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: experience perspective. You know, Chance Nolan returns from last year

956
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 2: twenty twenty starter Tristan Gebby is in there. The running

957
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,240
Speaker 2: backs are going to try to replace them with Deshaun

958
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 2: Fenwick and Trey Low. They're going to try to replicate

959
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 2: all the success that they've had in the past. I

960
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 2: think it's possible they get seventy six percent of their

961
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 2: offensive line snaps. I mean, it's not as explosive as

962
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: what we've had on the ground in the past, but

963
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 2: that's just what the offense is going to be the

964
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 2: defense loses more than fifty percent of their tackles, and

965
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 2: when Stuckey says boring, really it kind of means more

966
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 2: of the same. Defense has always been the issue with

967
00:47:57,960 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 2: the Oregon State. They've always had a powerful ground game.

968
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 2: They do have a lot of experience at quarterbacks, so

969
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 2: maybe they'll be more successful in passing downs, third down

970
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 2: and third and long.

971
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 3: We got to get some exposive in this. They're really

972
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 3: lacking in that department here.

973
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think they're they're a team that can

974
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 2: make a bowl game. So I think it's an under here.

975
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 2: Seeing them win seven, I probably is less probable than

976
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 2: them just winning six.

977
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they go six and six. But if

978
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: they you know, if they sweep Boise and Fresno to

979
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:27,879
Speaker 3: start the year, those are coin flippish games, then they're

980
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 3: gonna go over. If they don't, if they lose both,

981
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 3: they're at risky going five and seven. If they split,

982
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 3: and they're probably gonna go six and six. No bet there. Uh,

983
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 3: let's move on to Stanford talk about boring. The same

984
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 3: same coordinators, same staff, same play calling, same boring offense.

985
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 3: They do have an NFL quarterback who I'm very high

986
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 3: on with his potential in the NFL and Tanner McKee

987
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 3: back but and some promising talent at receiver. But also

988
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 3: you're gonna hear a lot about E. J. Smith at

989
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 3: running back, and it's it's sun But recruiting is difted

990
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 3: on the farm and things have just been going downhill

991
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 3: for Stanford, who was one hundred and sixteenth EPA per

992
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 3: play on both offense and defense last year. Their secondary

993
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 3: was one hundred and twenty seventh in EPA per pass.

994
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 3: They had a bottom five rushing offense and defense last year.

995
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 3: They're eleven to nineteen the past three years. This program

996
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 3: is just going like this. It is the seventh straight

997
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 3: to close the year last year, Like I mentioned, recruiting

998
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 3: is diffed and they have a brutal schedule. They faced

999
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 3: the top four teams from the South or the Old South.

1000
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 3: They played BYU, they played Notre Dame, all outside of

1001
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,439
Speaker 3: their old division. They have an early buy which might

1002
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 3: not help. They have won free win I guess against

1003
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 3: Colgate to start the year.

1004
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 2: What's I don't attendance for that Colgate Stanford game considering

1005
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 2: kids on aren't on campus in Stanford until like September

1006
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 2: twenty seventh.

1007
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 1: What do you think a hundred people aren to show

1008
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: up that coldgate game.

1009
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 3: There'll be a lot of people drinking wine in the

1010
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 3: tailgate and Stanford winetailgates, but not not yet, not many

1011
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 3: in the actual stadium. But yeah, one free win. I

1012
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 3: have a favorite in one game, like a significant favorite,

1013
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 3: more than a field goal. One game that's a coldgate

1014
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 3: to start the year. I project them, you know, their

1015
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 3: win totals over four and a half plus one oh five.

1016
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 3: I've here them four point twenty five. So it's a

1017
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 3: pass for me, but it's definitely a program on the

1018
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 3: decline pass for me. I think the wind totals are

1019
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 3: not right.

1020
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:29,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to like this team coming into this season,

1021
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:31,880
Speaker 2: especially with Tanner McKee coming back. And you know, McKee

1022
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 2: was Boomer Bus. He had a big time throw rate

1023
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 2: that was in the top thirty all Power five quarterbacks.

1024
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,720
Speaker 2: He was also outside the top fifty and turnover worthy

1025
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 2: play rates. So you know, it's a lot of highlights

1026
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:42,919
Speaker 2: and then there's a lot of things that you don't

1027
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 2: want on the highlight reel. So the defense switches from

1028
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:46,919
Speaker 2: a three to four to a four to three. Under

1029
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 2: coordinator Lance Anderson, their goal is to get more players

1030
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 2: into the backfield to cause some havoc. The size isn't there.

1031
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 2: It's a scheme change. There's a lot of things going

1032
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 2: on with this defense. There's a lot of work to

1033
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:00,880
Speaker 2: do here with these guys. I'm not going to take

1034
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: an under because they can't upset. They did upset, they

1035
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 2: have upset before. They remind me of a lot of

1036
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 2: other Pac twelve teams. They can score at any time

1037
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 2: on offense, They're gonna have explosive plays, can't play a

1038
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 2: lick of defense. Out of all the defenses that are

1039
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 2: in NEPT in this conference, this one might be the worst.

1040
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say.

1041
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 2: They're going to be in a lot of games that

1042
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 2: they shouldn't be and the defense is going to leave

1043
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 2: them short. And for that matter, I took Stanford plus

1044
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 2: eleven for Game of the Year. It's a number that

1045
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 2: I make seven and a half against USC. I think

1046
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 2: eleven is too high. I believe that'll be below ten

1047
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 2: when we get closer to the game. But if USC's

1048
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,919
Speaker 2: defense is not capable of stopping tip ball University, Tanner

1049
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 2: McKee's going to get protection from that offensive line and

1050
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 2: he's going to make things happen. So I took Game

1051
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 2: of the Year plus eleven on the cardinal. Nothing for

1052
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 2: me on the under perspective, because I do think they

1053
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 2: are going to get a couple of upsets throughout the schedule.

1054
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,359
Speaker 3: Let's move on to cal Over five and a half

1055
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 3: plus one hundred. I'm strongly into the under. I project

1056
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 3: four point six. This offensily brings back two starters. It's

1057
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 3: the most inexperienced offense in the twelve ten twelve top

1058
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 3: twelve highest snap count players on offense lest year are gone,

1059
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 3: including a four year starting quarterback and Chase Garber's. They

1060
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 3: bring in Plumber from Purdue at quarterback. He had similar

1061
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,760
Speaker 3: stats to Garber's. But here's the thing. Is not mobile,

1062
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 3: and that's what you need. Last year, Garber's seventy nine

1063
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 3: rushes for six hundred and four yards seven and a

1064
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 3: half yards per carry. That was fifteen percent of their offense.

1065
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,640
Speaker 3: Plumbers not mobile, and they are major questions on this

1066
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 3: offensive line. They also lost six to their top eight

1067
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:32,439
Speaker 3: tacklers on defense. This roster is a mess. I don't

1068
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 3: think Plumber is actually gonna work out because he's not mobile,

1069
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 3: and that was one of the strengths of Garber's last year.

1070
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 3: So you know, the wide receivers have thirty three career catches.

1071
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,920
Speaker 3: You've lost their star safety and your main sack linebacker

1072
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 3: to the NFL. Also, they they're underdog, they're double the

1073
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 3: Jenne dogs. I'm projected double the junder dogs in six games,

1074
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 3: so I think their ceiling is six over five. But

1075
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 3: they have four coin flips and then I have, you know,

1076
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 3: two games if they should win against UC Davis and

1077
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 3: UNLB to start the year and then four coin flips,

1078
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:05,719
Speaker 3: they're gonna win all four coin flips. And if they

1079
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 3: don't get an upset as a double jog, I doubt it.

1080
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 3: So I would lean under here. I like I said,

1081
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:14,399
Speaker 3: I project closer to four and a half. This team

1082
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:16,800
Speaker 3: has a lot of issues. Willcox twenty six and twenty

1083
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 3: eight record. I don't think they get the Bowl eligibility.

1084
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 3: The one thing that I'm having, it gives me a

1085
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:25,840
Speaker 3: little bit of plause with these some of these California teams,

1086
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 3: is that maybe though we'll really benefit from you know,

1087
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 3: Cal was zero and five and one possession games last year,

1088
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 3: but you know they were also plus ten turnover margin.

1089
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 3: That's because Garber's didn't turn it over and they only

1090
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 3: fumbled at seven times and the second fewest an FBS,

1091
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 3: so they could have some turnover regression coming to balance

1092
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 3: out maybe the close game regression. But some of the

1093
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 3: California teams didn't really have a real offseason last year,

1094
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 3: a lot of restrictions, so maybe they benefit from that

1095
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 3: this year. But it's under or nothing for me on

1096
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 3: cal You agree.

1097
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, project them at five. So under that five and

1098
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 2: a half minus won twenty ishes. What's out there? And

1099
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 2: I think that this is probably the best replication of

1100
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 2: a Justin Wilcox's team that we're going to see, which

1101
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 2: is the offense is going to be in nept and

1102
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,240
Speaker 2: gonna have a lot of issues. The defense is actually,

1103
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 2: I think going to pick it up a little bit

1104
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 2: this year. You know, seventy percent of the offensive line

1105
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 2: is back, but they lost sixty five percent of their

1106
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 2: pass rushing and receiving yard. So we'll see if Jack

1107
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 2: Plumber can switch that around. But like you said, he's

1108
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 2: not mobile whatsoever. Defensive coordinator Peter Sermon took over for

1109
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 2: Tim Tim de Ruder, a defensive coordinator that I am

1110
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:30,760
Speaker 2: not a fan of because of you know offense defense

1111
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:33,880
Speaker 2: is usually declined under his reign. He likes to do

1112
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 2: the bend, don't break, and try to stiffen up in

1113
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:39,919
Speaker 2: the red zone. Peter Sermon took Cal into a top

1114
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 2: fifty rank and havoc and finishing drives on defense, so

1115
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 2: they had a major upgrade at least from an advanced

1116
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 2: analytics perspective. Once de Ruter was out and Peter Sermon

1117
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 2: took over. The defense returned sixty percent of their stops

1118
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:53,279
Speaker 2: from last season. That's a stat that looks at the

1119
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 2: location of the tackle means the play was successful for

1120
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 2: the defense, and sixty seven percent of their passes defense

1121
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 2: are back safety Daniels Scots back he was a big

1122
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:03,280
Speaker 2: part of that, and a pair of highly graded corners,

1123
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 2: So you know, from a back seven perspective, I like

1124
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 2: this team. Coverage grading of all P five safeties, Scott

1125
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 2: was seventh in the nation, So you know, I like

1126
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 2: the defense, but the offense is going to be absolutely

1127
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 2: do absolutely nothing, and that's just what a typical cow

1128
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,480
Speaker 2: team has been over the past few years under Wilcox.

1129
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 3: No explosiveness. They don't have any receivers who can really

1130
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 3: break out, which is a major problem. And then the

1131
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 3: offensive line is an issue. In Plumber it's not mobile,

1132
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 3: it's uh and he fumbles a lot, he turns it over.

1133
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 3: The turnover numbers are going to go way up. So yeah,

1134
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 3: it's under nothing speaking under nothing. I think that's the

1135
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 3: same thing with Washington State. I think Washington State and

1136
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:41,320
Speaker 3: Cal are similar in the aspect that I have six

1137
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:43,839
Speaker 3: games where I don't you know, they're double digit underdogs,

1138
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 3: and they you know, they have six winnable games, two gimmes,

1139
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 3: and then you know, three or four coin flips on

1140
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 3: the schedule. But here's the thing with Washington State is

1141
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,760
Speaker 3: that they're a huge wildcard on the offense. We pretty

1142
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 3: much what the Cal offense is going to look like

1143
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 3: because everything is different. And by the way, this is

1144
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:05,719
Speaker 3: the third offensive scheme in three years. They're going back

1145
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:08,400
Speaker 3: to a true air raid. Jake Dicker, who took over

1146
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 3: his interim head coach last year, is back, but he

1147
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 3: brings in a new offense coordinator for Incarnate Word and

1148
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 3: cam Ward who put up gaudy numbers at FCS. It's

1149
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 3: kind of like the Bailey Zappi story will work as well.

1150
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 1: Bailey Zappie.

1151
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 3: Same thing, like just taking the offensive coordinator and the

1152
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 3: quarterback and then moving into Power five. Last year was

1153
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 3: Group of five Western Kentucky and then hoping that it

1154
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 3: works true air raid. You have a new defensive coordinator

1155
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 3: who comes in from the BATO, new special teams coach.

1156
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 3: This team lost a lot. I mean they lost their

1157
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,359
Speaker 3: starting quarterback to Arizona the lor. They lost their top

1158
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 3: two running backs, the top two receivers, four or five

1159
00:56:46,280 --> 00:56:49,719
Speaker 3: offensive linemen, including one of the NFL, and they only

1160
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 3: have thirty one career starts on the offensive line. And

1161
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 3: if you remember the Bowl game of Central Michigan last year,

1162
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 3: they didn't have their tackles in that game and the

1163
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 3: offensive line was horrendous. So the Lord got hurt and

1164
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 3: they couldn't stop anyone. So that is a really big concern.

1165
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 3: Here's a really shaky offensive line. Can you know Ward

1166
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 3: is very mobile, so the hope is that he can

1167
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 3: make up for that with his legs. You get Bell

1168
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:12,560
Speaker 3: back at wide receiver, which should help. But their defense

1169
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 3: also lost a ton. It was four of your top

1170
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 3: six tacklers, so you know it's over five and a half.

1171
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 3: I project four point seven under the unders juice of

1172
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 3: five and a half, So I'm not playing it because

1173
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 3: of the wildcard with cam Ward. What's what's this going

1174
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:32,720
Speaker 3: to look like? And you know, you have a new offense,

1175
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 3: new defense, they're gonna you're gonna see a tight end

1176
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 3: for the first time in years, and so there's a

1177
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 3: lot of change here and it's all going to come

1178
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:44,560
Speaker 3: down to what Ward can do because the offensive line

1179
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 3: is is going to be shaky, and then the depth

1180
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 3: behind him is all freshman. If he gets hurt, something

1181
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 3: happens and it's all downhill. So I lean under, but

1182
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 3: no play here on wazoo on the polofs anything for you.

1183
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're calling it the coup grade. The coup grade, right,

1184
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: So that's offensive corner. Eric Morris from Incarnate Word. He's

1185
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 2: gonna load the offense with h backs, tight ends, and

1186
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:07,400
Speaker 2: he's going to run the ball a lot. That's not

1187
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 2: good when you have an offensive line that's gonna struggle

1188
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 2: to get some continuity going on there. It's gonna be

1189
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 2: a stark difference from the air raid, the run and

1190
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 2: shoot from the years past. But you know, cam Ward

1191
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 2: is an absolute highlight machine. So that is the X

1192
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 2: factor and that's the reason I project them at four

1193
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 2: point four is that he comes from FCS where I'm

1194
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 2: not able to carry over incarnate words statistics that I

1195
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 2: have for cam Ward and just slot them in and say, okay, well,

1196
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 2: per TARP and the transfer portal, it says that they

1197
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 2: should you know, get x amount of power rating bump.

1198
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 2: They didn't get any power rating bump on offense. But

1199
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 2: that's a little misleading. So you know, like I said

1200
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: about LSU and USC, it's hard to put these teams

1201
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 2: in a spreadsheet and say well they should be plus

1202
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: two minus too. You really don't know until you see

1203
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 2: these players that are, you know, been all stars in

1204
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 2: the FCS level get out there on the field. So

1205
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 2: we'll be quick to just adjust their power rating number

1206
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 2: once the season starts. But after that, you know, I

1207
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 2: mean Stuck pointed out about what is this offense going

1208
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 2: to be and what happens if he gets hurt because

1209
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: there's just not a lot of depth here.

1210
00:59:04,520 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 1: Now.

1211
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 2: The defense can't tackle, which is really a problem with

1212
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 2: most of the defenses in this conference. So you know,

1213
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 2: keep an eye on wide receiver Lincoln Victor for the offense.

1214
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 2: He's probably not going to get tackled. He formally played

1215
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 2: a Hawaii He's going to make a great one two

1216
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 2: punch with Cameron Ward. And he played quarterback in high school.

1217
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 2: So I completely expect a lot of mistackles forced from

1218
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 2: this offense, but I expect the same thing from their defense.

1219
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 2: Brian Ward is the coordinator there. He's going to stick

1220
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 2: to a four two five that Jake Dickard initially installed

1221
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 2: through his transition of taking over Ward comes from Nevada

1222
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 2: last season where they finished top ten nationally and gaining

1223
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 2: twenty five turnovers. Whether that's luck or that is coaching

1224
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 2: the pop balls out, we'll see. But Nevada was right

1225
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 2: up there and that was because of Brian Ward. So

1226
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:51,200
Speaker 2: you know, Jordan Lee's in safety. He's going to join

1227
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 2: Ward and transitioning into pullman from incurrent word. So we're

1228
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 2: going to see, you know, a defense that I believe

1229
00:59:58,320 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 2: is on the rise. I want to believe in the

1230
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: coordinate for what he did in Nevada. You know, the

1231
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 2: team could miss bowl season, but then again, the ceiling

1232
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 2: with this team, they could play in the Pac twelve

1233
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 2: Championship game. If Cameron Ward blows everybody away, I'm not

1234
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 2: ruling it out. I don't think I'm betting on it. Either,

1235
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 2: So no play for me. I understand and feel everybody

1236
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 2: out there that wants to put a Washington States sixty

1237
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:22,640
Speaker 2: to one, forty to one ticket out there on them

1238
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 2: to win the conference.

1239
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 1: Because it's the PAC twelve. Anything can happen. Offenses rule,

1240
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 1: and Cameron Ward.

1241
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 2: Has the ability to be to make as many highlights

1242
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,959
Speaker 2: as Caleb Williams, So we will see what happens with them.

1243
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 2: I don't blame people for taking a long shot on them,

1244
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 2: but at the same time, I project from four point four,

1245
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:42,280
Speaker 2: so I can't put any viable amount of money behind

1246
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 2: this team whatsoever.

1247
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you want to throw a fun flyer on it.

1248
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 3: But they do host Oregon in Utah. But from a

1249
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 3: wind total perspective, that's not always good when you're hosting

1250
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:54,000
Speaker 3: the best teams. But yeah, I project four point seven.

1251
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 3: With the Ward uncertainty, it's a pass for me. But

1252
01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:59,160
Speaker 3: the defense, defensive lines of strength of the D. They

1253
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 3: lost two really tove linebackers, slow the team tackling a

1254
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 3: lot from the secondary major questions on that D. All right,

1255
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 3: great stuff on the PAC twelve should be an interesting

1256
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 3: conference to track and update power ratings for all season,

1257
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:13,200
Speaker 3: long before we get out of here. Let's just highlight

1258
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 3: our favorite future end or wind totals. I'll start. I'm

1259
01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 3: gonna say you Oregon plus three hundred to win the

1260
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 3: Pac twelve. I have them marginally behind Utah my power

1261
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:27,600
Speaker 3: ratings bow next season in full effect. Here's the thing.

1262
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 3: I think the defense will be fine despite some of

1263
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:33,040
Speaker 3: the losses under the tutelage of Dan Lanning. I think

1264
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 3: bow Knicks will also be fine being reunited with his

1265
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 3: offense a coordinator from twenty nineteen. And the schedule. Oregon

1266
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 3: won the schedule lottery. They avoid USC, they host Utah

1267
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:48,000
Speaker 3: that is massive, and then look at their roads schedule.

1268
01:01:48,240 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 3: You cannot get an easier road conference slate than Oregon

1269
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 3: has in in a year with no divisions in the

1270
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:56,920
Speaker 3: PAC twelve. Now the schedule means a lot more. I

1271
01:01:56,920 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 3: think Oregon gets to the PAC twelve title game. And

1272
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 3: I just think in general USC is extremely overvalued here

1273
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 3: with all of the shiny new toys. Favorite win totals

1274
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 3: Washington over seven and a half. I like the Deboor

1275
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 3: signing bringing him in coaching upgrade. I think the quarterback

1276
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 3: play will be more competent as well as the play calling.

1277
01:02:16,960 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 3: I think the defensive scheme change will be a net

1278
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 3: positive as well. The area to watch is the secondary,

1279
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:24,440
Speaker 3: but I think overall it will be fine. And then

1280
01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:27,960
Speaker 3: Colorado under three and a half, under three wins. I

1281
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 3: have them double dish underdogs in eleven of twelve games.

1282
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:33,200
Speaker 3: You know they're winnable games. I mentioned earlier, they're like

1283
01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:36,280
Speaker 3: plus ten. I haven't projected at Arizona. This team got

1284
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 3: crushed in the portal. Their secondary is all freshmen. I

1285
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 3: am not fan of any of the quarterback situation. It

1286
01:02:43,120 --> 01:02:45,640
Speaker 3: is just a mess across the board. And of course

1287
01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 3: Mike Sandford not a fan of what I think is

1288
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:52,120
Speaker 3: a desperation moveent offensive coordinator. So Colorado, I just cannot

1289
01:02:52,120 --> 01:02:54,120
Speaker 3: see this team getting the four wins. So going under

1290
01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 3: on the buffs where you're going.

1291
01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a lot of agreement with Stucky in

1292
01:02:58,320 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 2: what you just wrote it off. Not only do I

1293
01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 2: want to fade Colorado a year, I'm going to fade

1294
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 2: them in week one. I'm take TCU now at minus ten.

1295
01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:07,520
Speaker 2: That number should gain traction, get to thirteen, maybe fourteen

1296
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 2: before we kick off. The first game of the season

1297
01:03:10,600 --> 01:03:13,919
Speaker 2: for TCU and Colorado. Just a major mismatch and Mike

1298
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:16,960
Speaker 2: Sanford junior at offensive coordinator going up against defensive coordinator

1299
01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:19,760
Speaker 2: Joseph Gillespie. As far as wind totals, I'm right there

1300
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,160
Speaker 2: with Stuck. There's none that I love more than Washington

1301
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:24,520
Speaker 2: over seven and a half. I think that's still playable

1302
01:03:24,560 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 2: with the juice. And you have to look at the

1303
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:28,920
Speaker 2: fact that we have a head coach that's coming in

1304
01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 2: from Fresno that's already Upstate UCLA down in pat Pasadena.

1305
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 2: He's gonna have to do that again. But this is

1306
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 2: the easiest schedule in the Pac twelve. There's no Utah,

1307
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,440
Speaker 2: there's no USC. There is a lot of depth at

1308
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:43,520
Speaker 2: the quarterback position. The defense loses plenty, but they do

1309
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 2: have a solid safety back there to lean on. This

1310
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 2: is definitely an over on Washington State, and I'm going

1311
01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 2: to take Utah to win the Pac twelve. I definitely

1312
01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 2: think that they are going to make the championship game.

1313
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:55,920
Speaker 2: Remember there's a different format now, and for Utah to

1314
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 2: not make this Pac twelve championship game, they got to

1315
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,920
Speaker 2: finish third in the conference, which is highly likely, especially

1316
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 2: since they are hosting USC on the schedule, probably going

1317
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 2: to meet up with Oregon. But I think getting plus

1318
01:04:06,080 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 2: money on Utah now is going to pay off when

1319
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 2: we get to that final weekend of conference championship games.

1320
01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:13,960
Speaker 2: Utah has it in every sense of the way with offense,

1321
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:17,000
Speaker 2: Cameron Rising, Tavi On Thomas in the backfield. If we

1322
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 2: can get what we saw on the Rose Bowl out

1323
01:04:18,560 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 2: of that offense is going to be one of the

1324
01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 2: best and on the West coast west of the Mississippi.

1325
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 1: So we'll see what we get there. But that's my pick.

1326
01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 1: You taught to win the Pac twelve.

1327
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 3: Sleeping on boat next season. And by the way, Colorado,

1328
01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:32,400
Speaker 3: that's schedule twelve eleven Power five teams and then at

1329
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 3: air Force no Giineas all right, that'll do it for us.

1330
01:04:36,280 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 3: Thanks as always to Colin for joining me. Great stuff.

1331
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 3: Thanks to all of you for listen. Thanks to everyone

1332
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 3: behind the scenes, producers as always for all their hard

1333
01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:45,880
Speaker 3: work as well. Help us out. This is the time

1334
01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 3: when ratings matter, So lead a five star review. If

1335
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 3: you already have, grab your girlfriend's phone, steal your friend's phone,

1336
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 3: leave it. We'll do giveaways. Matt Our producer, want your

1337
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:57,400
Speaker 3: list some names of people that have done some reviews.

1338
01:04:58,040 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 1: Let the games begin.

1339
01:05:04,560 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 3: I'm very aroused.

1340
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:12,000
Speaker 4: Thank you, Stucky. Another round of winning reviews on Apple Podcasts. Again,

1341
01:05:12,080 --> 01:05:14,000
Speaker 4: thank you so much for everyone who is giving us

1342
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 4: five star reviews.

1343
01:05:14,920 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 3: Keep them coming.

1344
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 4: We've got lots more giveaways in the weeks ahead. First,

1345
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna select j Money seven six four whose review

1346
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:29,680
Speaker 4: best pod. Also floopd Do and his review awesome show.

1347
01:05:29,760 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 4: Thank you very much, floop doy Doo and MVP one

1348
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:37,040
Speaker 4: two three three best podcast out there bar none. Thank

1349
01:05:37,080 --> 01:05:40,280
Speaker 4: you very much to you as well. To claim your prize,

1350
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:43,040
Speaker 4: please dm me on Twitter at old Boy Uncle Mitch

1351
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:49,200
Speaker 4: or email me at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. Thanks everyone,

1352
01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 4: and good luck this season.

1353
01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 3: Tell a friend, Telling Enemy. Subscribe on Subscribe Subscribe. We

1354
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 3: will be back next week with our recap episode. We'll

1355
01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:01,000
Speaker 3: go through all of our favorite bets for every conference,

1356
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:04,000
Speaker 3: and then we'll have our Week zero. We're eleven days away,

1357
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:05,680
Speaker 3: as if we're reporting this when you're listening, it's probably

1358
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:08,240
Speaker 3: ten days away. Then we'll have our Week zero betting preview.

1359
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 3: But make sure you tune in next week and make

1360
01:06:10,040 --> 01:06:12,040
Speaker 3: sure you tune into all of the previous episodes. A

1361
01:06:12,120 --> 01:06:14,120
Speaker 3: group of five guys, Mike and Mike are gonna kill

1362
01:06:14,120 --> 01:06:16,400
Speaker 3: it all year. I'm excited. We're almost in single digit

1363
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 3: days of college football. Get excited, get your bets in,

1364
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 3: make sure you shop around. We'll catch you next week. Cheers.

1365
01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:28,000
Speaker 1: He's out.