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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: Two three Rights.

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Speaker 1: And in the middle of the fans, Hello's football.

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Speaker 3: Who's got.

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Speaker 2: The one yard line?

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Speaker 1: How about that?

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Speaker 4: That is the ultimate kabash and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs, and joining me are Sean Corner and

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond. Shawn is the Action Network director of predictive

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Speaker 2: Analytics and one of the top end season fantasy football

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Speaker 2: rankers for the past half decade. Chris is a senior

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Speaker 2: editor and analyst of the Action Network and a co

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Speaker 2: host of the Action Network show on Series X and

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Speaker 2: Fantasy Radio at nine a m. Eastern. You can follow

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Speaker 2: them in the Action Network app at the Underscore. Odds

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Speaker 2: Maker and Chris Raybond use the app to get real

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Speaker 2: time odds and tracker bets for free. Gentlemen, our projections

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Speaker 2: are done. We've created rankings. We are working on our

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Speaker 2: customizable fantasy football cheat sheet, which will be available for

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Speaker 2: Action Network subscribers on July first. It is the off season,

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Speaker 2: but it is a very busy time of year. I

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Speaker 2: just spent the last week in Texas remembering where I

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Speaker 2: came from, immersing myself in my roots. So how y'all doing?

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Speaker 1: Doing pretty good? Pretty good.

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Speaker 3: I'm I'm hanging in there, going to Europe in a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks, so I'm excited for that and just

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Speaker 3: trying to grind while I'm still here because I know

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Speaker 3: once I get back, it's going to be like, wait July,

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Speaker 3: and it's going to be time to just go all

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Speaker 3: in for the next six months and not really come

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Speaker 3: out of the cave.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. And Truvan, you said our projections are done,

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Speaker 4: I would say just our initial projections are created and

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Speaker 4: we're going to be editing them diligently for the next

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Speaker 4: couple months.

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Speaker 2: You are such a kill joy, but the correct correct

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Speaker 2: is always all right, So it's going to be back

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Speaker 2: on the pot with you. Last week we previewed our

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Speaker 2: NFC player projections and Raymond and I bet on a

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Speaker 2: multitude of player props created by Corner aka the Odds Maker.

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Speaker 2: We're doing the same thing today for the AFC and

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Speaker 2: the next week we will kick off our epic position

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Speaker 2: by position podcast breakdowns and for those we will be

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Speaker 2: joined by a bounty of top tier guests, so be

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Speaker 2: sure to check out those future episodes. Sean, let's get going.

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Speaker 2: What do you have for us? All right?

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Speaker 4: So you guys are so sharp lost week, I had

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Speaker 4: to take this super seriously. I am really confident the

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Speaker 4: lines I have today, and we're going to start in

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Speaker 4: the AFC East with the Patriots. I think this guy

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Speaker 4: is probably the widest range of outcomes and probably the

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Speaker 4: most difficult to project right now. But it's nick hil

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Speaker 4: Harry receiving yards I have set for him at over

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Speaker 4: under five hundred and eighty and a half.

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Speaker 2: I will take the over, and primarily it's because of

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Speaker 2: the well two things. One, we don't know what's happening

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Speaker 2: with josh In, but I'm assuming he's going to miss

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Speaker 2: a lot of games if he even plays it all.

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Speaker 2: And then also we have the targets that have been

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Speaker 2: vacated by Rob Gronkowski. And even though the Patriots haven't

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Speaker 2: had success a wide receiver in terms of drafting guys

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Speaker 2: and kill, Harry sort of fits the mold, the pro

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Speaker 2: type of guys who tend to have first year's success

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Speaker 2: just in terms of his age, his draft position, his

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Speaker 2: production profile, his physical profile. So there's a lot to

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Speaker 2: like about him.

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Speaker 3: I'm going under as I guess I'm still doing still

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Speaker 3: out here. He's under his but I just think, you know,

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Speaker 3: it worries me that that's been kind of the Patriots

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Speaker 3: Achilles heo. It also worries me that, you know, some

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Speaker 3: separation issues, and I think the Patriots, if they want to,

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Speaker 3: they can use another pick that they have, Damien Harris

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Speaker 3: and you know James White last year he actually averaged

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Speaker 3: almost six carries per game. He usually is around two

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Speaker 3: and a half, so they could kind of treak him

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Speaker 3: more like a receiver and kind of use those running backs.

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Speaker 1: And teaching them heavily.

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Speaker 3: So I got Harry around ten percent of the target

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Speaker 3: chair right now getting thirty five catches for four hundred

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Speaker 3: and eighty two yards.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you.

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Speaker 4: Mentioned in the Achilles heel, so I'll segue into Demarius

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Speaker 4: Thomas as well. I mean, he's he's there's a chance

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Speaker 4: he might not make the team or start to be

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Speaker 4: on the pup list, but he's another threat that could

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Speaker 4: you know, impact this projection. So it's pretty vol projection

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Speaker 4: where yeah, if Thomas or Josh Gordon don't play all

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Speaker 4: this year. I think he goes over pretty easily. But

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Speaker 4: just just the threat of those guys potentially joining the

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Speaker 4: next and even we might be overlooking Philip dors said

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Speaker 4: a bit surprises and being the second leading receiver. So

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Speaker 4: but you know, the path is set for Harry to

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Speaker 4: you know, be the leading receiver behind Edelman. So it's

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Speaker 4: just a tricky prop. And I think that he could

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Speaker 4: find most of his fancy value in the red zone,

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Speaker 4: so he might not be a yardage monster. I think

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Speaker 4: he could be more like a Mike Williams last year

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Speaker 4: and just kind of, you know, surprise us with his

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Speaker 4: touchdown total. But I'm not expecting, you know, a thousand

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Speaker 4: nerds season from him. So I think five baby is

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Speaker 4: a pretty fair line for now.

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Speaker 1: I'll take your odds on.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what you'd said it at at Damarius

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Speaker 3: Thomas making the team, but I bet he doesn't.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say, yeah, there's a percent chance, like

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Speaker 4: I don't know, it'd be like what five percent, so

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Speaker 4: that that would just have a little impact on this line.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, games played for the Patriots point five. That's that's

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Speaker 2: the line.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to don trou inman, baby he did

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Speaker 3: it for Luck, you probably end up doing it for

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Speaker 3: Brady's a lot of guys mark.

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Speaker 4: These guys, all right, So moving on to the dumpster

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Speaker 4: car that is the Dolphins. Josh Rosen games start. This

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Speaker 4: is I love this prop and right now I have

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Speaker 4: the line set at eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: We'll take the under. I'm going I think I have

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Speaker 2: seven games as the projection right now. But this is

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Speaker 2: so fluid and it's I think, really hard hard to

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Speaker 2: get a read on this situation.

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Speaker 3: I haven't actually at exactly eight point five in my model.

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Speaker 3: I'll take the over just because I think at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day, you're gonna want to look at

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Speaker 3: this guy. I think we know what Fitzpatrick is, and

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Speaker 3: we've seen Fitzpatrick kind of have these magical fitsmagic seasons

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Speaker 3: and follow them up what complete does. And the Dolphins

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Speaker 3: just strike me as a team that you know, you're

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Speaker 3: going from Evans and DJs and Godwin and Howard to yeah, nobody.

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Speaker 1: So I think Rosen gets a long look.

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Speaker 4: Do you guys think that fitz Patrick starts week one

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Speaker 4: or the week one?

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Speaker 2: Sorry, yeah, yeah I do. And the thing is, like

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Speaker 2: Jim Caldwell, this is I think an underrated part of

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Speaker 2: what's happening with the Dolphins. Caldwell is the quarterbacks coach

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Speaker 2: and the assistant head coach, and he's had success with quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: And I think Fitzpatrick, as a guy who's like very

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Speaker 2: competent when he's had good coaches around him, will win

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Speaker 2: the Week one job, and I think because of the

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Speaker 2: Caldwell influence, he will do well enough early on to

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Speaker 2: keep the job long enough for Rosen to hit the

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Speaker 2: under I.

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Speaker 3: Actually think it might be the other way. I think

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Speaker 3: they want to get a look at Rosen. They're not

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Speaker 3: too interested. I don't think in winning this year. I'm

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Speaker 3: just not sure Rosen is that good. And I think

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Speaker 3: at some point he might end up just getting straight

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Speaker 3: up benched and it will kind of be one of

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Speaker 3: those Winston Fitzpatrick situations from last year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that's fair.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's I mean, it's impossible to predict exactly

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Speaker 4: what's gonna happen, but I get se him starting. Fitzpatrick,

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Speaker 4: let Rosen learn the offense a bit and say, after

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Speaker 4: four or five games, if they're blow of five hundred,

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Speaker 4: throw Rosen out there, because you need to see what

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Speaker 4: you have in Rosen.

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Speaker 1: This year.

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Speaker 4: I think he for sure plays and then you know,

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Speaker 4: if he sucks, just let him keep losing games for

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Speaker 4: you and get the first pick next year and take

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Speaker 4: your future quarterback of the future. So I just think

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Speaker 4: it makes sense for the Dolphins to sort of want

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Speaker 4: this to be over. So you know, I would lean

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Speaker 4: over here, but I think it's gonna be close. Okay,

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Speaker 4: So moving on to the Bills. Josh Allen total rushing

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Speaker 4: yards this year have the over runners set at six

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Speaker 4: hundred and thirty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm under, but just barely, So I think that's that's

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Speaker 2: pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow, I'm over. I'm at six sixty two. We've

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Speaker 1: gotten over.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, man, I think you know, you could, you could

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Speaker 3: kind of put all these new receivers around him. I

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Speaker 3: still don't think he's a guy that wants to check down,

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Speaker 3: and if anything, I think they may drop back a

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Speaker 3: little bit more. They have a whole bunch of running backs.

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Speaker 3: None of them may be very good. So yeah, I

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Speaker 3: think josh Alla's gonna run around. He didn't play many

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Speaker 3: game as many games last season, but I think he's

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Speaker 3: going to keep running because that's what he does. He

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Speaker 3: makes off script plays, run and throw deep. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that's going to change.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the real question is how efficient is

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Speaker 2: he going to be with his scrambles, because he was

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Speaker 2: uber efficient last year. So even if you regress that

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Speaker 2: that comes down and you have to assume that he

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Speaker 2: will not be as efficient, he could still be a

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Speaker 2: pretty efficient runner and hit the over in Rayvon. As

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, he's just a scrambler, that's what he does.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know they brought in Cole Beasley to

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Speaker 4: I feel like to tell him, look, just throw it

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Speaker 4: underneath the him. But I think I agree. I think

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Speaker 4: he's a runner at Hart and I don't think if

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Speaker 4: you know he's gonna dump it off the Beza, he'd

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Speaker 4: rather just run with it. And like you said, his

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Speaker 4: effishing seal go down. You know, he had six hundred

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Speaker 4: and thirty one yards last year, but that was only

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Speaker 4: in twelve games, so I think is efficient seal go down.

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Speaker 4: But I mean, if you watch him play, he is

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Speaker 4: definitely a natural runner, so it wasn't necessarily a fluke.

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Speaker 4: But I you know, I guess he's gonna rest down

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Speaker 4: from a seven point one yards per tempt, but not

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Speaker 4: by much. I love him this year in fancy just

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Speaker 4: because of that rushing upside.

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Speaker 3: And rushing yards per game for quarterbacks is actually a

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Speaker 3: pretty stable stat. So you know, yards per carry is

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Speaker 3: obviously extremely hard to predict, but a lot of times

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Speaker 3: I just like to look at those yards per game

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Speaker 3: and that's why I have some confidence and now and Continuance,

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Speaker 3: who put up pretty good numbers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he has an outside chance of having

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Speaker 2: a thousand rushing yards this year, like that could absolutely

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Speaker 2: happen with him, just based on the offense, in his

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Speaker 2: style of play.

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Speaker 1: Might be a best running back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, probably is, all right.

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Speaker 4: So wrapping up the AFC East, let's head over to

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Speaker 4: the Jets. We've got Le'Veon Bell total rushing and receiving yards.

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Speaker 4: I messed up the over under at fifteen hundred and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 1: That's good. I am just over I think that.

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Speaker 3: You know, yeah, Adam Gase didn't want to pay Bell money,

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Speaker 3: but at the end of the day, that's that's sharp.

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Speaker 3: We all know that you're not supposed to pay back

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Speaker 3: so a lot of money. But he's there, fresh legs

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Speaker 3: year off. I think it does him well and I

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Speaker 3: think that they'll rely on him heavily because he's the

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Speaker 3: best player in their offense by far. They don't need

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Speaker 3: to be a pass heavy team, and they probably want

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Speaker 3: to hide that defense, which I'm I still have doubts about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with Raybon on this. I'm to the over.

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Speaker 2: I'm closer to sixteen hundred yards than to fifteen hundred,

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Speaker 2: and I'm maybe being a little bit aggressive there, but

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Speaker 2: I think that they're at least for one, you're going

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Speaker 2: to give him something close to the Steelers version of

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Speaker 2: the Le'Veon Bell treatment. And so even if if he's

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Speaker 2: not getting as many carries, I still think we're going

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Speaker 2: to see him used pretty heavily as a receiver.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm at two forty seven for ten eighty one

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Speaker 3: on the ground and then another fifty five catches for

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Speaker 3: just under five hundred.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm very close to that on the rushes.

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Speaker 2: I'm at two forty two, but I have sixty seven receptions,

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Speaker 2: which is probably aggressive, But I mean, he's just been

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Speaker 2: used so much in the passing game that really is

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Speaker 2: where he distinguishes himself. So I think they will continue

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Speaker 2: to use him there all right.

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Speaker 4: And then next for the Jets, I have Robbie Anderson

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Speaker 4: total receiving yards over under seven eighty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: I have more than that. I'll take the over, but

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Speaker 2: it is incredibly close. I have seven ninety two, so

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Speaker 2: it's I mean, it's right there.

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, then I'm under.

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Speaker 3: I'm at seven fifty three on fifty three catches, just

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Speaker 3: over five touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I think the one concern with Anderson is this is

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Speaker 1: a new regime.

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Speaker 3: We just don't know exactly how these targets are going

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Speaker 3: to shake out, which is why I'm a little bit conservative.

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Speaker 3: Even with Bell's receiving, you still have a noon with her,

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Speaker 3: you still have Jamison Crowder was brought in, and he's

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Speaker 3: a guy that can also catch a lot of passes underneath.

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Speaker 1: So I think Anderson things will be opened up a

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Speaker 1: little bit for him.

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Speaker 3: But he could be kind of the get the lowest

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Speaker 3: percentage targets because because he's gonna run a lot of

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Speaker 3: fly routes and that creates a little bit of volatility.

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Speaker 3: So I guess I like him a little more invest ball.

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Speaker 3: He might be might be tough to predict because he

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Speaker 3: usually has these big four game stretches, uh like during

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Speaker 3: the end of each season after everyone gets hurt, and

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Speaker 3: then kind of waits. His numbers just a little bit,

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Speaker 3: so even his switch just with a noon on the

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Speaker 3: field are are a lot lower. So I'm being a

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Speaker 3: little bit conservative with Robbie.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we always talked about how he's sort of benefited

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Speaker 4: from being just you know, by far the best talent

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Speaker 4: and then you know, being surrounded by Sean Peak and

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Speaker 4: things like that at the end of the year. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: with back healthy, uh, that brought in Crowder and even

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Speaker 4: love on Bell, He's gonna have more competition, I think.

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Speaker 4: So the over to hit he's gonna have to have.

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Speaker 4: Sam Carl will make a year or two leak, which

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Speaker 4: I could see happening obviously, So I think just the

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Speaker 4: passing game in general will have to grow for him

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Speaker 4: to match some of these numbers we've seen in the past.

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Speaker 4: But I still think he's the number one guy, of course,

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Speaker 4: but like you said, he'll just be his typical inconsistent

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Speaker 4: self and have you know, massive games over short periods.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think his his per game target sharer

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Speaker 4: should definitely go down this year.

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Speaker 1: We have him around nineteen percent. It's still number one,

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Speaker 1: but it's like a pretty low for a top option. Totally.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have that around twenty two percent, which might

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Speaker 2: be a little bit aggressive, But I think he's in

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Speaker 2: the best quarterback situation of his career, so I do

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Speaker 2: think he's also the best wide receiver on that team,

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Speaker 2: so I do think he will take a step forward.

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Speaker 2: One of the things I really like about him is

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Speaker 2: that for his height, he has such great deep speed.

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Speaker 2: He just looks so smooth running downfield. Speaking of smooth,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about razors. Did you know that the average

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Speaker 2: guy spends three thousand hours of his lifetime shaving. I've

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Speaker 2: grown a beard basically because of shaving laziness, But even

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Speaker 2: with the beard, I still have to shave around the

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Speaker 2: beard to shape it so that I look a smidgen respectable.

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Speaker 2: I hate shaving. There's nothing worse than having to shave

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Speaker 2: with shoddy razors. Fortunately, there's Harry's, a razor that is

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Speaker 2: so sharp you can shave less often and save money.

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Speaker 2: It's just two dollars per blade. Harry's founders were just

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Speaker 2: two regular guys tired of getting ripped off and paying

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Speaker 2: for overpriced razors. So Harry's makes quality, durable blades at

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Speaker 2: a fair price, and there's a one hundred percent quality guarantee.

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Speaker 2: Join the ten million people who have tried Harry's claimer

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Speaker 2: special offering. By going to Harry's dot com slash Action.

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Speaker 2: You get a trial set that comes with everything you

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Speaker 2: need for a close, comfortable shave. You get a weighted

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Speaker 2: ergonomic handle, a five blade razor shaving gel, and a

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Speaker 2: travel blade cover. Again, get your trial set at Harry's

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Speaker 2: dot com slash Action. Sean, what else do you have

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Speaker 2: for us?

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Speaker 4: All right, next step, We're going to the FC North

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Speaker 4: and we're gonna start with the Ravens. So Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 4: total rushing yards this year. I have the over under

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Speaker 4: set at eight forty and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's good.

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Speaker 3: I have him at eight twenty two, so still going

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Speaker 3: under by eighteen yards, but right there for him I have.

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Speaker 3: I have most quarterbacks I haven't projected, you know, to

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Speaker 3: play more than fifteen games and at fifteen and a

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Speaker 3: half range. So you know, if I add like another,

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Speaker 3: I have that fifteen point five. If I add you know,

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Speaker 3: you know, fifteen seventy five or sixteen, he probably goes over.

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Speaker 3: But I'm just under again. I think I think quarterback

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Speaker 3: rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: TJ.

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Speaker 3: Hernandez actually does articles on the most predictable stats every year,

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Speaker 3: and if you look at quarterbacks, rushing yards is right

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Speaker 3: there at the top of the list about a zero

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Speaker 3: point eight correlation year over year. So pretty confident that

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Speaker 3: Jackson's gonna keep it going in we don't know if

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Speaker 3: he's really gonna be able to throw that well. I

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Speaker 3: don't know how much improvement he's.

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Speaker 1: Gonna be able to make in that area.

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Speaker 2: I think I regressed him too far in two ways

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Speaker 2: when I created his projections, one in terms of his

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Speaker 2: efficiency and then also in terms of the total number

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Speaker 2: of attempts he would have. But yeah, so right now

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Speaker 2: I have projections for the under, but my heart wants

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Speaker 2: to take the over. So like I'm going to take

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Speaker 2: the under, I'm going to stick with my numbers, but

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Speaker 2: this is a projection I feel I need to come

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Speaker 2: back to. But it's just like Lamar Jackson was such

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Speaker 2: an outlier case last year that I think it's it's

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Speaker 2: hard to know, especially outlier just in terms of what

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Speaker 2: we saw, but then outlier also in terms of him

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Speaker 2: coming in in the middle of the season and the

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Speaker 2: team changing their offense. I think it's just hard to

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Speaker 2: know what they're going to do this year. Like I

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Speaker 2: expect them to be still a run heavy team, but

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Speaker 2: they could be run heavy and Lamar could still run

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Speaker 2: sixty percent, you know, less than he did last year.

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Speaker 4: So for AMID, do you have them like low seven

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Speaker 4: hundreds or even the six hundreds high six hundreds. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I don't think he can average seventeen attempts to games,

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Speaker 4: so have them closer to twelve. Do you think he

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Speaker 4: could stay healthy if he were to run seven team

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Speaker 4: times a game?

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Speaker 2: No, I don't think he could.

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Speaker 4: I mean I was watching some film and you know

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Speaker 4: the way his running style. He does know how to

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Speaker 4: avoid some of those big hits, but yeah, I just

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Speaker 4: it's impossible for him to maintain seventeen yards a game.

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Speaker 4: So I'm regressing him a bit. But you know, he's

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Speaker 4: like Josh Allen. What surprised me if he rushes for

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Speaker 4: over one thousand yards. But I think it's going to

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Speaker 4: be more of a self preservation sort of thing where

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Speaker 4: they limit him.

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Speaker 3: Yeahah, I have them right about about eleven eleven or

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Speaker 3: so characters per game, averaging four point six per carry.

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Speaker 4: It's also worth pointing out, you know, Gus Edwards is

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Speaker 4: the number one back last year, so having Ingram there

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Speaker 4: will help if Justice Hill is as good as we

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Speaker 4: think is we're here, that's gonna help too. So you know,

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Speaker 4: more reasons why they don't have to run him seventeen

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Speaker 4: times a game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's my sense. I'm I'm projecting for nine, which

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Speaker 2: is like I'm really bringing him back closer to the group,

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Speaker 2: which nine is probably too conservative, like I probably should

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Speaker 2: be closer to eleven or twelve. But as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: the addition to mark Ingram, the additions of Justice Hill,

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Speaker 2: him progressing into his second season, and I think them

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Speaker 2: wanting him to be a little bit more of a passer.

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Speaker 2: My thought is that he ran so often last year

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Speaker 2: when he was starting, in part because he was just

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Speaker 2: thrown in in the middle of the season, and that

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Speaker 2: they really will try to create a scheme where they

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Speaker 2: they use him as a runner a little more judiciously

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Speaker 2: and strategically.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And also they faced that really easy schedule of

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Speaker 3: defenses which probably a little bit easier to run against.

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Speaker 3: They went six and one in his starts during the

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Speaker 3: regular season, and then he had his season high twenty

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Speaker 3: nine pass attempts because they got behind against the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: So just something like that could drive up his pass

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Speaker 3: attempts as well, but he was extremely consistent, which which

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Speaker 3: is the only reason I kind of I'm not going

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Speaker 3: to go fow you out and like regress them crazily.

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Speaker 3: Because after that first start, it was twenty five twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four to twenty nine pass attempts, So it's clear

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Speaker 3: that they're kind of trying to keep them in that

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Speaker 3: that twenty five is range.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean their defense should regress a bit this year,

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Speaker 4: so yeah, they probably won't be playing with his many leads,

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Speaker 4: so you know, he's gonna probably have to throw more

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Speaker 4: out of necessity. So speaking of mark Ingram, let's let's

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Speaker 4: talk about how many touches is he gonna get. So

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Speaker 4: I have his overrunners set at two forty five and

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Speaker 4: a half, and I'm thinking we'll get a raybond over here.

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Speaker 2: I am right around to forty nine point five, so

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Speaker 2: pretty close I'll take the over. But that's you know,

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Speaker 2: like pretty in tensative.

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Speaker 1: I am going, yeah, I'm going over. I have them

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Speaker 1: at two seventy three.

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Speaker 3: I just think that the it's gonna be close, probably,

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Speaker 3: but I think that the Ravens intend to kind of

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Speaker 3: continue this run heavy attack in general their defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it may take.

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Speaker 3: A step back, but that's all the more reason for

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Speaker 3: them to kind of, you know, slow the game down,

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Speaker 3: run the ball, protect their defense, protect their quarterback. I

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Speaker 3: think Ingram's gonna get a lot of work, and I

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Speaker 3: think Gus Edwards may see a decent share too.

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Speaker 1: In Hill will probably be a factor as a dual

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Speaker 1: threat in the run.

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Speaker 4: In the past game, how many of those touches are receptions?

439
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:15,159
Speaker 2: For you guys, I have let me see just a

440
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: little over twenty one receptions I.

441
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 1: Have, yeahs, I have him at twenty two.

442
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, yep, Yeah, that's that's gonna be interesting to see,

443
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 4: you know, like how how heavily they utilized in the

444
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 4: passing game because Gus Edwards, I mean, not a terrible

445
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 4: pass catching back, but he was just non existent in

446
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 4: that role last year. So yeah, I think a lot

447
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: of these touches are going to be, you know, of

448
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 4: the rushing variety. All right, So next up the Steelers

449
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:44,560
Speaker 4: James Connor total rushing and receiving yards. I have the

450
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: overrunner set at one four and thirty.

451
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 3: I am under that I have him closer to the

452
00:20:54,720 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 3: closer about thirteen hundred rushing and receiving on about two

453
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 3: two hundred, just over two hundred and sixty touches.

454
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 4: Do you have Samuel's taking a large share of his receiving.

455
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 3: No, I have I have, Well, I have Samuel's at

456
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:10,920
Speaker 3: about seven and a half percent. I think Samuels will

457
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 3: kind of be used as a little bit of a

458
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 3: wild card kind of he can still play that that

459
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 3: tight end kind of h backish role, so I think

460
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 3: they'll get him the ball. But I have Connor around eleven,

461
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 3: just over eleven percent of the target share, and then

462
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: I have him at just under fifteen carries a game,

463
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: So I think I still think Pittsburgh will be relatively

464
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 3: pass heavy, maybe not quite as much so as with

465
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 3: with Ab, but trying to be a little bit conservative

466
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 3: with Connor.

467
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 1: And he still comes out as my number eight back

468
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 1: in PPR.

469
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair, I will take the over. I'm pretty

470
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 2: bullish on Connor this year in part because of well,

471
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 2: obviously just what we saw last year, but then also

472
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 2: how they have used Baby and the Steelers have used

473
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 2: backs previously, and a portion of the workload with Leveon

474
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 2: bellicating a really high percentage of the usage. We saw

475
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: it last year with Connor, We've seen it in spurts

476
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 2: with even DiAngelo Williams. I think he's going to continue

477
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,160
Speaker 2: to be the lead back, even though there has been

478
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 2: some talk at this time of the year, but we

479
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 2: always get talked of this time of the year about

480
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: this guy or that guy. But there's been talk about

481
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 2: them wanting to split the backfield work a little bit more.

482
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 2: I think when the season starts, it's still going to

483
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 2: be Connor as the main guy who's out there all right.

484
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 4: Moving on to the Browns. Baker Mayfield total passing yards

485
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 4: this year, I have it set at over under four thousand,

486
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 4: three hundred and fifty.

487
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 2: I will take the over, probably not a surprise. I'm

488
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 2: pretty optimistic on Mayfield this year.

489
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 3: I'm under by eleven yards. I have him at four

490
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 3: to three to three nine. I don't feel good about

491
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 3: taking the under though, because yeah, I'm really bullheim and

492
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 3: you know, it's just a matter of, you know, how

493
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 3: much you want to regress his yards per attempt, how

494
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 3: much you want to wait that the second half of

495
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 3: the season, when he averaged eight point five to seven

496
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 3: over the over those last eight weeks, and that was

497
00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 3: behind only.

498
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahon, and that was without Odell Beckham.

499
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 3: So you know, after some regression, he's still I believe

500
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 3: my number top three in the yards per attempt, but

501
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: he's at I have him had about seven point nine,

502
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 3: So that's just it's more of a matter of regression

503
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 3: for me than anything. But I think he could have

504
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,199
Speaker 3: a monster season. I think he could have probably the

505
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 3: closest to my homes of last year, probably the best

506
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 3: candidate for for a season like that this year.

507
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, with him, it's interesting because you know, the defense,

508
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 4: if they stay healthy, can be really good, and you

509
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 4: know they're going to be potentially be a double digit

510
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 4: winning team. So I'm just worried about them almost being

511
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 4: too good and you know, be becoming more of a

512
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 4: balanced team and you know, feeding Nick Chubb and then

513
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 4: Kareem Hump when he gets back. So with him, it's

514
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 4: more just about a highly efficient passing attack that probably

515
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 4: doesn't have to throw as much as we think. But yeah,

516
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 4: you're right, It's it's hard to not set the line

517
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 4: over like forty five hundred yards, but I feel like

518
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 4: forty three hundred is probably closer to the means. So

519
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 4: it's a tough line that stuff. So you're on the

520
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 4: under correct.

521
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, really right, I didn't want to will actually.

522
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 4: Be over there.

523
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm with Raymond on the efficiency. Raybon has

524
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 2: him at seven point nine yards per attempt. I have

525
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 2: him right at eight, so we're in the same neighborhood.

526
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be very efficient. One of

527
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: the I think underrated or just a factor that I

528
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 2: think is harder to take into account, is that when

529
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 2: they made this scheme change with the coaching change last year,

530
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 2: the Browns gave up only five sacks in the second

531
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 2: half of the season, and so like that obviously is

532
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 2: not projectable moving forward. It's not as if they're going

533
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 2: to allow only ten sacks this year. But you know,

534
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: there was something pretty drastic that they did to change

535
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 2: this scheme, and so I'm wondering if they will continue

536
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: to be as efficient on a per dropback basis, because

537
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 2: I think that could be an extra source, sort of

538
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 2: like a hidden source of more past attempts.

539
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

540
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 3: I mean, it's interesting the way you phrase it as

541
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: like they gave up only five sacks, because I would

542
00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 3: kind of put it as Baker Mayfit only took five sacks, right.

543
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 3: I think that's a sign of he did a lot

544
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 3: of impressive things, which is why I think he could have.

545
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 3: He has the upside of that Mahomes, you know, fifty

546
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 3: touch fifty touchdown kind of year. Five thousand yards, you know,

547
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 3: over nine yards of target to guys like Higgins and

548
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 3: Brashad Perriman and Ratley and all these guys, and just

549
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,159
Speaker 3: I think he learned to spread the ball around. He

550
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 3: targeted Jarvis Landry, who's getting about thirty percent of the

551
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 3: targets over that first half, only about twenty percent of

552
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 3: the time, So he kind of was able to move

553
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 3: off the guys that the defense was paying the most

554
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 3: attention to spread the ball around, get it out, don't

555
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: take sacks. Just overall really impressed him and some really

556
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 3: good signs heading into year two for Baker.

557
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, he certainly has better weapons than the Homes going

558
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 4: into this year, depending on how what happens with Terry Hill.

559
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 4: So all right, So closing out the IFC North, let's

560
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 4: go to the Bengals. Joe Mixon total rushing and receiving

561
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 4: yards over under fifteen hundred.

562
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 2: I am just over. I am at fifteen hundred and

563
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 2: one point six.

564
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 3: I'm at fourteen oh three, so I'm under by about

565
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,239
Speaker 3: one hundred. I'm guessing I don't know fre even how

566
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 3: many games played. I haven't at fourteen. I'm guessing you

567
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 3: probably have him like fourteen.

568
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 2: Five, Yeah, fourteen and a half.

569
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, So that's probably really the difference when it comes

570
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 3: down to it. But I think this is going to

571
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 3: be another high volume year for him when he's on

572
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: the football field that he missed a couple of games

573
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 3: last year. Same, I haven't projected for the same, but

574
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: I don't think Bernard or any of those other guys

575
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 3: will be too much of a factory.

576
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 4: All right, So heading to the South, let's start off

577
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 4: with the Texans. Will Fuller total receiving yards over under

578
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 4: seven forty and a half.

579
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: I am over.

580
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 3: I think that he could conceivably do that by like

581
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 3: week ten. I mean I have n't at eight twenty five,

582
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: but I mean he is upside just in terms of

583
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 3: the air yards and how efficient he was with Deshaun

584
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 3: Watson when he's been on the field these last couple

585
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 3: of years going over even though he's a bit injury from.

586
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's assuming he plays all ten games. But yeah,

587
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 4: I agree, this is all If he's healthy, he will

588
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 4: crush this. But that's that's really the question with them.

589
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with Raybond on the over. I haven't projected

590
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 2: for eight hundred and seven right now. The Yeah, as

591
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 2: Raybond mentioned, the issue is the health. I haven't projected

592
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 2: for thirteen and a half games. But there are two

593
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: questions tied to the health. One does he even start

594
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: in week one? I know there's some optimism that he

595
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 2: will be available, but he tours ACL in the second

596
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 2: half of the season, so we can't assume that he's

597
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 2: going to be healthy for week one, And then even

598
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 2: if he returns, we can't assume that he's going to

599
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 2: be his playmaking self. It takes guys a little bit

600
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: of time to return from that injury. So I'm projecting

601
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 2: to the over, but I can easily see how the

602
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 2: underhits here.

603
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, how are you factoring Kiki Qt

604
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 4: and all this, because he's a bit injury prone too,

605
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 4: So I think they kind of have a situation where

606
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 4: you know, one guy's going to be healthy, one guy's

607
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,040
Speaker 4: going to be out, so they're going to be I

608
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 4: think they're both going to be extremely efficient whenever they're

609
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 4: on the field.

610
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Toshaun Watson, he can get the ball

611
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: of these guys.

612
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: I don't think that's the problem.

613
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: Houston is just known for kind of highly concentrated target shares.

614
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 3: They let go of their leading pass catching tight end

615
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 3: from a year ago, Ryan Griffin, got into some trouble

616
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 3: in the offseason, Jordan Thomas Aikens.

617
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,120
Speaker 1: Those guys are more blocking type.

618
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 3: They drafted to Hill Warring, but you don't expect him

619
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 3: to make really any noise in year one, and even

620
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 3: Lamar Miller, he usually stays in a passbox. I only

621
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 3: have him about seven and a half percent of the

622
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 3: target chare, So like Howkins, you get thirty percent Fuller

623
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: twenty and KT twenty, and that's like a realistic projection

624
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 3: for this team.

625
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 4: All right, Heading over to the Colts, let's go with

626
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 4: Andrew Luck passing touchdowns. I have the overrunners set at

627
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 4: thirty three and a half. I have them under I

628
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 4: have him at thirty in five hundred and seventy six

629
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 4: attempts with just under forty three hundred yards.

630
00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: All right, so this is interesting, Sean, you're perfectly splitting this.

631
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 2: I have him at thirty six, and I have him

632
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: in much more of a pass heavy scheme. I have

633
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: him projected for six hundred attempts, so I think that's

634
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 2: that's probably the difference there.

635
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know he had thirty eight last year.

636
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: Obviously he'll regress a bit, but his his weapons are

637
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 4: gonna be much better this year. If we recall, you know,

638
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 4: it was a bang that t Y Hilton and Eric Ebron.

639
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 4: That was pretty much it. So you know, adding functions

640
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 4: to the mix, even Paris Campbell and getting Jack Doyle

641
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 4: healthy back, it's really hard to set it lower than that.

642
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 4: So if Ravon, if you want to double down on

643
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 4: your under, or if you want to give me thirty

644
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 4: one and a half, I'll you know, I'll make another

645
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 4: side bet with you too, because yeah, I think that

646
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 4: he can crush this this projection.

647
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: I mean no, I don't think I want to do

648
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: that now. It's just that's just the way.

649
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 3: You know, touchdowns are a little bit you know, harder

650
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 3: to predict from one year to the next. You know,

651
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 3: things as simple as you know, more rushing touchdowns for

652
00:29:58,880 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 3: the team.

653
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: You know, luckily amazing in the red zone a year ago.

654
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 3: So he's still one of only three quarterbacks that I have.

655
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: Projected for at least thirty. But yeah, I'm not gonna go.

656
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: I think thirty three and a half is a little high,

657
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,959
Speaker 3: just because you never know, you can miss a game Injurie.

658
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 3: They may, I mean, they could be really good and

659
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 3: not have to play in Week seventeen, which is always

660
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 3: a you know, can kind of hurt some of these

661
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 3: props as well.

662
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: So I have him going under by a couple of scores.

663
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, good, great point on the week seventeen. That's something

664
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 4: I actually don't factor in. But that's that's smart. I

665
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 4: think that's a sneaky thing that kind of blend in

666
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 4: if you can.

667
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 3: That's why I almost never project, like even even quarterbacks

668
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 3: like I always like knock off maybe you know, a

669
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 3: quarter of a game or something, never project them for

670
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 3: a flat sixteen because you really any player because there's

671
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 3: there's just a non zero chance that for whatever reason,

672
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: they could rest.

673
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Raymond, I'm with you there. And the number of

674
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: games played is where I try to factor in Week seventeen.

675
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: So I have Luck projected for fifteen and a half games.

676
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 4: Same Yeah, okay, Eric Ebron total receiving touchdowns over under

677
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 4: six and a half, and I don't think I could

678
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: set any other line. I think that's that's a good line.

679
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be the donkey here and take the over,

680
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 2: but I don't feel good about it. I've regressed the

681
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 2: number down and I'm still getting the over, but I'll

682
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 2: I'll take it here.

683
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 4: Are you still under seven? Are you like high sixes?

684
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 2: I don't want to say it's embarrassing. I'm at eight nine,

685
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: I'm at eight.

686
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: So I have him. I have him in the in

687
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: the mid five.

688
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: And that part of that is just because there's a

689
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 3: lot of players on that team at Sean as you mentioned,

690
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 3: that could are competing now for target here.

691
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: And I think one of the more important ones is.

692
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 3: Devin Funches because when you look at him, he's a

693
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 3: guy that kind of lost his way abut to be

694
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 3: in Carolina. But he's another guy that could He could

695
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 3: be the Eric he Bronner this year and get random

696
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: twelve touchdowns or something. You kind of remember Dante Moncrief

697
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago, didn't really put up much yardage,

698
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 3: but anytime they got in the red zone, it was

699
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 3: just mon creef all day. So I'm just a little

700
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 3: bit concerned. I think touchdown to something again, you have

701
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 3: to regress them. I mean, we've seen James Jones go

702
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,239
Speaker 3: from like thirteen to three and whatnot. So I do

703
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 3: think your line of six and a half is probably

704
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: the right line, especially if you're trying to still attract

705
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 3: some action on the over.

706
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 1: But I yeah, I have it in the high fives.

707
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: And also we heard a little bit about you know,

708
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 3: him struggling with with some injuries. He's a bigger guy

709
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 3: where I could see that kind of affecting him a bit.

710
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 3: So I'm just kind of the combination of all those

711
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 3: things and all the mouse to feed, I'm going conservative.

712
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, just to defend you a little it, Freeman, I mean,

713
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 4: if you're if you're projecting you know, thirty six thirty seven,

714
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 4: then that's absolutely reasonable to kind of project Ebron for

715
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 4: eight because it's you know, that's about a good percentage

716
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 4: of the pie. So yeah, I'm with you on that one.

717
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that is really where it happened because kind of

718
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 2: on its own, in a vacuum, I had Ebron around

719
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: seven and a half, a little under seven and a half,

720
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: but then factoring in the uh, I mean exorbitant number

721
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 2: of touchdowns I'm expecting Andrew Luck to get, there was

722
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 2: an excess that kind of had to be distributed elsewhere

723
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 2: to guys, and I mean Ibron gets a pretty big

724
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: chunk of it. Yeah.

725
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 4: Absolutely, So we're gonna go to the Titans first. We're

726
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 4: gonna do Derrick Henry total rushing yards over under one

727
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 4: eighty five.

728
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: I'm over.

729
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: I have him at twelve twenty one. I think he

730
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 3: could end up leading the league in rushing. I don't

731
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 3: think he'll get like he'll be in that thirty carry

732
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 3: range the way he went to close out last season,

733
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: but I do think that the Titans will continue to

734
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 3: ride him when they can.

735
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 2: I will take the under but relatively close one. I'm

736
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: at one and ten. I think Dean Lewis will still

737
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: continue to see more carries than he probably deserves to see,

738
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: and I think that will be the difference.

739
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 4: How many miss games do you guys have for him?

740
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 4: Are you giving him the standard two or one and

741
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 4: a half here, I.

742
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 2: Have the fifteen games.

743
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: I have him at fourteen. I just have him with

744
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 1: a bullet carries.

745
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 3: I have him getting about three three quarters of the

746
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: team's carries, and I still have.

747
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: Them run heavy.

748
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 3: So I for quarterbacks, I find that attempts are somewhat

749
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 3: of a sticky stat and Marcus Mariota has just and

750
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 3: part of this is because I'm you know, he gets injured,

751
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: but you know, generally one of the lower lowest pass

752
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 3: attempt figures in the league over the last couple of years,

753
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 3: and that kind of when you're projecting the Titans to

754
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 3: still be a pretty run heavy team, that's probably where

755
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: my like the carries for Henry are coming in.

756
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I only ask because you know, I'm

757
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 4: in the same way where I typically just project guys

758
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 4: down if they're you know, an injury risk like Fuller

759
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 4: like I mentioned, but Henry, it seems like the guy

760
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: where it's it's like I'm gonna give him an extra

761
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 4: game because he's he just never gets hurt. I mean

762
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 4: even if you go back and look at his days

763
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 4: at Alabama, I mean, he never missed a game despite

764
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 4: getting you know, twenty five carries a game, so and

765
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 4: just by looking and he seems to embody the kind

766
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 4: of running back that can take a beating and be

767
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 4: healthy for sixteen games.

768
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: That's where I am. I'm with you there. One weird thing,

769
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 2: just to mention is like we know nothing about their

770
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Like he was the Titands coach

771
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 2: like he's He's been with the Titans under like four

772
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,280
Speaker 2: different head coaches. It's just it's hard to know exactly

773
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 2: what type of scheme he's going to run. I mean,

774
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: I'm imagining it's going to be pretty similar to what

775
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 2: we've seen in the past, but still it's just kind

776
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 2: of this this weird scenario where it's a guy where

777
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 2: there's nothing on him.

778
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm hoping they scheme at closer to the end

779
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 4: of last year, where Henry was, you know, the bell

780
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 4: cow back and not trying to you know, make lewis

781
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 4: a thing. So I'm hoping it's closer to the end

782
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 4: of last year because I definitely want to load up

783
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 4: on all the Derrek Henry this year. Okay, So closing

784
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 4: out the ANFC South the Jaguars, Leonard Fournette's total rushing yards,

785
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 4: I have it over under nine to ten.

786
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: I will take the over, but I am at nine

787
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: to eighteen.

788
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 3: I'm at nine to twenty three, so we're all we're

789
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 3: all pretty much there. It's funny because I actually have

790
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 3: Fournette like just around four yards to carry too, so

791
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: it's not even like I'm projecting him to be super efficient,

792
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 3: but I think there's just a huge potential for again,

793
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 3: like miss games for running backs. Not still not as

794
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 3: predictive as you think that the most accurate outcome is

795
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 3: going to be. He's probably gonna miss two games by

796
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 3: media by average little about two point seven.

797
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 1: But I think you know, when.

798
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 3: He was in there, he got a thirty touch game,

799
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 3: he had another like three other twenty touchdown games.

800
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 1: They're still I.

801
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 3: Mean, when you're talking about Chris Conley as a buzzworthy

802
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 3: receiver in the offseason, you have nothing. So yeah, I

803
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: think Fournette might be a bell cow and he I

804
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 3: think he go in fantasy drafts, like he kind of

805
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 3: goes after all of those like wide receivers in that

806
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 3: in that tier with Gigs and all those guys, Like

807
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 3: I think Fournette deserves to go on the other side

808
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 3: of that tier, like in the Dalvin Cook range, you know,

809
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 3: kind of end of the mid to end of the

810
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 3: second round, rather than the third where he's going.

811
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 4: Now, yeah, I'd rather not have you guys both on

812
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 4: the over I was expecting to sort of vouch for Fornette,

813
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 4: but yeah, I mean he's a guy where you know,

814
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 4: yards per carry is something that typically regresses to the

815
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 4: me and and he's been pretty poor in that career.

816
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 4: Three point seven. That's you know, basically seen a ton

817
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 4: of eight man boxes. But we saw with Melvin Gordon

818
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 4: last year. You know, we bashed on him a bit

819
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 4: for being a low yards per carry guy and then

820
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 4: he just broke out last year. So I think a

821
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 4: four Nette is healthy. He crushes this and also our

822
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 4: own in heart. It sort of fantastic piece on Fournette

823
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 4: that kind of hels off ten different factors that I think,

824
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 4: you know, I like Fournette going to this year, so

825
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: definitely check that out on Fancy Lobs.

826
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot to like it him. It could

827
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 2: go sideways, but lots of like about him on the show.

828
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: We try to keep things light, but sometimes life comes

829
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 2: at you fast and it gets you down. You know,

830
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: just ask anyone who drafted for NET last year. But

831
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 2: when you need someone to talk to, someone to support you,

832
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 2: Talkspace is there for you. It's therapy for how we

833
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,360
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834
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,120
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835
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 2: to wait for your next appointment to talk about what's

836
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 2: on your mind. With Talkspace, you can send unlimited messages

837
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 2: to your dedicated therapist from the privacy of your device,

838
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839
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,239
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840
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841
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Speaker 2: One month of therapy on the Talkspace platform coals about

842
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843
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844
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845
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,600
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846
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847
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848
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,000
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849
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,040
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850
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852
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: that is talkin talkspace dot com. All right, Sean, let's

853
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 2: close it out with this final division.

854
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we're gonna close out the AFC West and

855
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 4: we're gonna start with the chiefs. Patrick Mahomes through fifty

856
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 4: passing touchdowns last year, I think it's sick to say

857
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 4: he's going to regress, but the question is how much.

858
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 4: So I think this is important prop for us to

859
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 4: figure out. Right now, I have his passing touchdown set

860
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,760
Speaker 4: at thirty six and a half.

861
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 1: This sounds crazy, but I'm going under. I have n't

862
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,240
Speaker 1: at thirty four.

863
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 2: I'm going under as well. I have him just under

864
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 2: thirty six and a half, thirty six point two.

865
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 4: Thirty six point two. If they announced tomorrow that Tyreek

866
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 4: Hill is suspended four games and expected to play the

867
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 4: rest of the season, where would you, guys, like, how

868
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 4: would you bomp it up? I'm just curious how many

869
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 4: games you have Tyreek Hill factored in, because that's that's

870
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: also a question mark.

871
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had him for a long time. I had

872
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 2: him factored in for six games, and I recently bumped

873
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 2: that up to eight games. But it doesn't really change

874
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 2: the touchdown number all that much for me for Mahomes

875
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 2: because it's still like a top down type of number.

876
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I have him.

877
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 3: I still have him projected if he's going to miss

878
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 3: the season until we get news that he's not, I'm

879
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: treating him like that. I see people starting to get

880
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,280
Speaker 3: a little confident when we don't hear anything.

881
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: But I'm just not going there yet.

882
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 3: So but if I do, he would my homes would

883
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 3: get a bump, not only in a touchdown department, but

884
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,399
Speaker 3: in the yarders department as well.

885
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 4: Yeah that's fair, Okay. The next the next prop I

886
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 4: think is one of the most critical ones offc in

887
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 4: my opinion, it's Damian Williams total rushing and receiving yards.

888
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 4: I have the over runner set at one fifty over.

889
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 1: I have him about twelve to fifty.

890
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 3: I think he maintains that role and I think anytime

891
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,240
Speaker 3: he'll misses and you know this obviously would go down.

892
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: A little bit if Hill in there.

893
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 3: But I think Williams is going to be a major

894
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:06,720
Speaker 3: part of this offense.

895
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: I don't even know if Carlos Hyde makes the team.

896
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 2: I'm taking the over as well, but I'm a little

897
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 2: I'm not quite as bullish as Raybond. I have him

898
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: at eleven twenty five, but I'm still pretty optimistic on

899
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 2: him because I felt I was pretty rigorous in trying

900
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: to rein in my optimism about him, so I didn't

901
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: project for as much of a market share and rushing

902
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: attempts as I think he probably will get and I

903
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 2: also tried to, I don't know, in terms of efficiency,

904
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 2: kind of pull him back a little bit. But even

905
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 2: with that, I still have him going over eleven hundred yards.

906
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take the over.

907
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: What do you have his rushing attempt market share at.

908
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 2: On a per game basis? I have it at point

909
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 2: five to four, but I think it could be higher

910
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 2: than that, just based on what we saw out of

911
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt, out of Spencer Ware, out of Jamal Charles,

912
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,240
Speaker 2: and also just based on what he did last year

913
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 2: on a per game basis when he was the lead back.

914
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 2: That number was around point sixty four last year when

915
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 2: he was the lead back. So I'm really bringing him

916
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: down in comparison to the other guys that we've seen.

917
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 4: If he maintains that Roley had in the final four weeks,

918
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 4: I mean he's a slam dunk RB one.

919
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you know.

920
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 3: I have him actually a little lower than you, Freeman

921
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 3: have him about even fifty. And the only reason is

922
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 3: his carries in those games started were ten, thirteen, eleven,

923
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 3: and then he had one twenty five carry game in

924
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 3: the first playoff game against the Colts, and then he

925
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 3: was at ten, but he he had six seven, six,

926
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 3: eight targets and four of his five starts. So I

927
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 3: think whatever he doesn't do on the ground, I think

928
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 3: he will make up through the air, especially if Tyreek

929
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 3: Hill isn't in the lineup. I think Williams has a

930
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,760
Speaker 3: chance to be right there with with Watkins and Kelsey

931
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,959
Speaker 3: as a as a top target for that team.

932
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, all right.

933
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 4: So heading over to the Chargers, Mike Williams total receiving yards,

934
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 4: I have it at over under eight to fifteen.

935
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 1: I have him under I have him at seven fifty seven.

936
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: I still have him.

937
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 3: He's my number thirty PPR receiver. But yeah, the Chargers

938
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 3: are another team. They have three good three three pretty

939
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 3: good running backs.

940
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers.

941
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 3: Pass attamps have been down a little bit so that

942
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,320
Speaker 3: that's and Williams did struggle with some injury earlier.

943
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 1: But I think he has a chance to really crush.

944
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 3: I think the year two breakouts are usually what I'm

945
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 3: looking for, So now he's he's in the year three,

946
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 3: so I'm not projecting quite as much of a step forward,

947
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 3: even though Tyrell has moved on.

948
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 2: Okay, I will take the over, but I have him

949
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: at eight forty.

950
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 4: Eight, So if I want fifty yeah, yeah.

951
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: So, but yeah, I mean, I'm projecting him on a

952
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 2: per game basis for about twenty percent of the target

953
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 2: market share he's It's an interesting situation because, like I

954
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 2: think he has if you had to pick one of

955
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 2: these guys on the team, Keenan Allen versus Mike Williams,

956
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 2: like I think Mike Williams is the guy who would

957
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 2: have a better chance of having I don't know, like

958
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 2: a fourteen hundred yard, fourteen touchdown season, you know what

959
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 2: I mean. But there's so much kind of downside built

960
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 2: into his style of play, and I don't expect him

961
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 2: to be a high volume guy relative to Keenan Allen.

962
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 2: But I still think eight hundred and fifty ish around

963
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,320
Speaker 2: there is probably the number I would shoot for freedom.

964
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 3: When you said fourteen touchdown, fourteen hundred yards, you meant

965
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 3: you think you really think Keenan Allen has less yardage

966
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 3: upside than Mike Williams.

967
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: No, it's not. No, it's not the yardage upside, but

968
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 2: the touchdown upside. If one of these guys had a

969
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 2: fourteen hundred and fourteen season, it has to be Mike Williams, like,

970
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 2: there's no way it's Keenan Allen.

971
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 1: I don't know about that.

972
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 3: I mean, I think yardage comes with I mean touchdowns,

973
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 3: excuse me, come with volume.

974
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: I mean we have this conversation every year where you're.

975
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 3: Just just down on Keenan Man.

976
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: He is so nasty. I mean, like this guy could

977
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,760
Speaker 1: just walk. He just walks defensive backs like dogs.

978
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 3: I think he could easily get fourteen hundred yards and

979
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 3: it just takes one outlier touchdown season.

980
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Williams, it's just a little tough.

981
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:10,760
Speaker 3: For him to get the yards on a consistent basis,

982
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 3: But I could certainly see that the fourteen touchdowns for

983
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 3: either of them.

984
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, so real quick before we move on, just tell

985
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 4: me your guys is projected touchdown receptions for Willians I

986
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 4: am at seven point zerh.

987
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 2: I have him at seven point seven.

988
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 1: I have him at six point four.

989
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, so we average out around seven.

990
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 2: All right.

991
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 4: Next up the Broncos. Philip Lindsay total rushing yards. I

992
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 4: have it set at nine point fifty.

993
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 2: I'm taking the over. I have it around ten forty.

994
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 1: I'm taking the under. I have it currently. I'm way under.

995
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: I have it at just under eight hundred.

996
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 3: That is perhaps because he's one of those guys that

997
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 3: not fully healthy right now. Also just kind of the

998
00:45:55,520 --> 00:46:00,879
Speaker 3: way he burst on the scene, I think, and there's

999
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 3: like a new coaching regime, so all these things caused

1000
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 3: me to be a little bit more conservative with running

1001
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: back projections. I still have him at about fifty five

1002
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 3: percent of the running back carries and uh and it's

1003
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 3: just at the Miss game.

1004
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: I think it is knocking him down a little bit.

1005
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: I have my thirteen games.

1006
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 2: Thirteen games. Yeah, that's I think that's pretty aggressive.

1007
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:25,320
Speaker 3: So like there's certain guys that I knocked down a

1008
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 3: little more and he just happens to be one of them.

1009
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 3: And I mean also I also do think that that

1010
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,399
Speaker 3: Roy Friedman, I'm ecu Roy Freedman, Royce Freeman, could could

1011
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 3: get a little bit more of the carry share this season.

1012
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 3: And I just think again with the new coaching regime,

1013
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 3: because Whens, he kind of jumped on the scene and

1014
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 3: he was like this guy that came out of nowhere

1015
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 3: and that and in the last coaching staff really seemed

1016
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 3: to love him.

1017
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 1: You know.

1018
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 3: Now it's kind of starting the offseason hurt. You still

1019
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 3: have this highway drafted back waiting in the wings, but

1020
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 3: just a lot of I think I think question marks

1021
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 3: as far as you know him getting on the field

1022
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 3: in addition to his health.

1023
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think the split is much more even

1024
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,919
Speaker 2: between Lindsay and Freeman this year. But I still think

1025
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: Lindsay is so efficient and he was so explosive in

1026
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 2: college too. He has the speed. I think he's much

1027
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 2: more of a I don't want to say Jamal Charles

1028
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 2: type of player, but like, even though he's small, he

1029
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 2: didn't miss time in college. Like I think he maybe

1030
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 2: has the type of style to be able to withstand

1031
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 2: despite his size. So I don't know, but I mean

1032
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,879
Speaker 2: you're right to for your right to be cautious about

1033
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 2: him because he is small. Small lead backs tend not

1034
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 2: to last that long.

1035
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, so that I wanted to fall up with that

1036
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 4: with raeb on your docting extra game because of his

1037
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 4: frame or because of his the risk injury.

1038
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: He's coming back a little bit of both.

1039
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 3: More so the injury like it might bump up to

1040
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 3: like thirteen to five as we know he's healthy. I

1041
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 3: think we talked about this last pot. But for guys

1042
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 3: who are kind of starting the offseason hurt. I tend

1043
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 3: to knock off what you we amounts to about an extra

1044
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 3: game because that's just how it tends to work out.

1045
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 3: If you look at the numbers of you know, guys

1046
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 3: who you know get injured once they tend to they

1047
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 3: tend to get injured. Again, this is not a soft

1048
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:13,839
Speaker 3: necessarily a soft tissue injury. So that's a little bit

1049
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 3: not as quite as concerning. But until he's fully healthy,

1050
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 3: I think you have to be a little bit conservative.

1051
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great point. And with in terms of

1052
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 4: his yards per carry, I mean, obviously he's gonna regress

1053
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 4: this year from five point four. Do you guys have

1054
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 4: handy what you guys have projected from this year because

1055
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 4: I have the round four point five?

1056
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, same, I have him for four or five six.

1057
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 3: And yards per carries is a really tricky stat depending

1058
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 3: on how you look at it.

1059
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:40,479
Speaker 1: If you kind of do it.

1060
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 3: The straight up, you know, base rate way with it,

1061
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 3: they take almost about two thousand excuse me carries to

1062
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 3: stabilize that. You can also for certain backs that have

1063
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 3: been on the same team, you know, there's certain people

1064
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 3: have found, you know, regressions that you know you're still

1065
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 3: only about about fifteen to twenty percent of the variants,

1066
00:48:58,040 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 3: but you can get a little bit more predictive doing

1067
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 3: it that way.

1068
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, I have him about right over four to five.

1069
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 2: I'm much closer to five, which is aggressive, but just

1070
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 2: because he was so explosive in college and because of

1071
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 2: his verified forty time, and then there were some next

1072
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 2: gen stats I don't remember what they were, but also

1073
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:20,879
Speaker 2: kind of indicated how explosive he was with the ball

1074
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 2: in his hand. He's someone I will probably just be

1075
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,720
Speaker 2: aggressive on. From an efficiency perspective, I'm.

1076
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 3: Actually curious, what who do you guys have weeding the

1077
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:33,399
Speaker 3: week in yards per carry?

1078
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: I run him back and what's the number.

1079
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:37,879
Speaker 4: Aaron Jones four point seven to two.

1080
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 1: I am at.

1081
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,840
Speaker 3: I have Philip Lindsay in the weak and yards for

1082
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 3: carrying at that four or five.

1083
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:44,360
Speaker 1: That's how I was curious.

1084
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 4: I was like, I also have I have Cream Hunt

1085
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 4: really high, because you know he's gonna get less carries

1086
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 4: and probably in more desirable situations. I think he could

1087
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 4: be a guy and the speaking sample where he could

1088
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 4: lead in rushing yards pertemp. But I mean, it's such

1089
00:49:57,560 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 4: a fall little stat and it's not something that I

1090
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 4: I think just because I have Aaron Jones is my

1091
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 4: top guy, I don't necessarily think he's gonna lead in

1092
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 4: that car r. It's just just the way I kind

1093
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 4: of shaped out.

1094
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, shooting from the hip. I would imagine that Philip

1095
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 2: Lindsay is probably my highest ranked guy in terms of efficiency.

1096
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 4: All right, so wrapping up, we'll go to the Raiders

1097
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 4: and Josh Jacobs total touches this year. I have it

1098
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 4: set at over under two forty five.

1099
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 2: I have a question. Did you just adjust that number

1100
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 2: on the fly?

1101
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,319
Speaker 4: Adjusted it? As looking at your guys eyes, I think

1102
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 4: I know you're going so I won't tell you which

1103
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 4: way I adjusted it.

1104
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: You adjusted it up, I've adjusted it.

1105
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 4: Oh are you looking at my projections?

1106
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 2: No? Yeah, I'm still gonna take the over.

1107
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 4: That's what the figure.

1108
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've met to sixty one, so yeah, I'm taking

1109
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 3: the over as well. I think this is a guy

1110
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,839
Speaker 3: who if you looked at Marshawn Lynch and what he

1111
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,280
Speaker 3: did when healthy last year, in those first six games

1112
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,919
Speaker 3: he had about eighty six touches. He was getting about

1113
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 3: three targets per game, which I think is a fair

1114
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 3: projection for Jacob so Wnch was getting fifteen seventeen and

1115
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 3: a half touches per game. I think that's a very

1116
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 3: fair projection for Jacobs, who I think they drafted to

1117
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 3: be a for one replacement, and maybe they would have

1118
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 3: given Isaiah Crowell something, but then he was lost for

1119
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 3: the season. They had to go resign Doug Martin, who

1120
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: who I don't think will be much of a factor.

1121
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: I'm right there with Raymond. Number of touches for me

1122
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,280
Speaker 2: is two hundred and sixty three point six.

1123
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 4: It would have been a mess ive Krow is still there,

1124
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 4: but you know, him being out for the season kind of,

1125
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 4: you know, helps the situation be a little more predictable.

1126
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 4: But I mean, how do you guys envision Jaalen Rashard

1127
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 4: factoring and is he still going to be heavily used

1128
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,439
Speaker 4: in passing downs or you think they want to keep

1129
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 4: Jacobs on the field more. That's the only tricky thing

1130
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:53,800
Speaker 4: with his projection.

1131
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 2: For me, Yeah, I think Rashard will still get usage,

1132
00:51:56,640 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 2: but I mean, Jacobs is a three down back and

1133
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 2: so I think that's one of the real benefits that

1134
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: he adds. So I think Richard will be the guy

1135
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 2: that they'll rely on in like clear pass catching situations

1136
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 2: where they don't get an edge of having Jacobs out

1137
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,359
Speaker 2: there with the defense not knowing for sure that they

1138
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:15,320
Speaker 2: have to pass.

1139
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's like Richard is just a guy

1140
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 3: that they would like to use Wes.

1141
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 1: I think he's better in that role.

1142
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 3: If in the six games that Winch played last season,

1143
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 3: Richard only averaged one point eight rushing attempts, then once

1144
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 3: Lynch got hurt over those final ten games, that double

1145
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:35,320
Speaker 3: more than doubled to four point four, but his targets

1146
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 3: went down from six point two with Lynch to four

1147
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 3: point four without, So they kind of they probably just

1148
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 3: want to phase him out a little bit more.

1149
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 1: And I think I wouldn't be surprised.

1150
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 3: Like Jacobs is kind of in that four net bucket

1151
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 3: for me, where I think these are guys that in

1152
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 3: any given week they could get thirty touches. I'm gonna

1153
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 3: be looking to play him early on in the season

1154
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 3: in DFS, it's when they're still healthy and fresh, because

1155
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:58,280
Speaker 3: I think these are guys that can just have monster

1156
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 3: games and at the end of the year, if they

1157
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:03,239
Speaker 3: stay healthier, play you know, fifteen games or so. I

1158
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised to see those guys, this top five

1159
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 3: fantasy running back.

1160
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean outside of even what would be

1161
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 2: the considerations for this team, I just like take a

1162
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 2: macro perspective on Josh Jacobs as a twenty one year

1163
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 2: old first rounder who's a big guy. Those guys tend

1164
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 2: to get usage right away, So I mean, I'm pretty

1165
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 2: bullish on what he's going to do, even though he

1166
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: was never a high volume usage guy in college.

1167
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 1: I mean, Gruden, I.

1168
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 3: Don't think he has any like reservations about feeding a

1169
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 3: guy that he essentially traded, like you know, went out

1170
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 3: and got in the first round of the draft.

1171
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1172
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 4: Absolutely, I agree with you guys on that one you

1173
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 4: kind of mentioned with Alabama not using him much. I

1174
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:48,920
Speaker 4: just think that, you know, he has the frame to

1175
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 4: handle a big workload. If anything, he just has less

1176
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 4: tread on his tires. So yeah, I think they'll use

1177
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 4: him heavily this year.

1178
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 1: And Rashard just to go back to him.

1179
00:53:57,160 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 3: I mean, he averaged six targets in the first six

1180
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 3: week even with Lynch there. A lot of that was

1181
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 3: because they really didn't have much going for them at receiver.

1182
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 3: Now they have Antonio Brown who's gonna command a large

1183
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 3: target share.

1184
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 1: So I think I don't think Rishard will be much

1185
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:11,839
Speaker 1: of a factor.

1186
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 3: I think he's more of like that that guy you

1187
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 3: can get in like the last round of a PPR

1188
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 3: Best Ball draft or something and maybe get a couple

1189
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 3: of the games out of them, But I don't think

1190
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:22,800
Speaker 3: he'll be a factor or Martin.

1191
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 2: All Right, that is the previews for all of our

1192
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 2: AFC player projections. Again, those will power our customizable Fantasy

1193
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 2: Football cheat sheet, which will be out on July first. Sean, Actually,

1194
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 2: do you want to talk a little bit about that tool,

1195
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 2: kind of preview it for the people who are listening,

1196
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 2: because you guys are doing a lot of work on

1197
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 2: it with the dev team and it's going to be

1198
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: a pretty awesome tool for people to use. Yeah.

1199
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 4: So we have all three of our projection sets in

1200
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 4: the tool itself, so you can go in and set

1201
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 4: your league settings, customize it to you know the number

1202
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:58,839
Speaker 4: of teams in your league with the scoring and roster configuration,

1203
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 4: and it'll update you know, the overall rankings as well

1204
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 4: as auction values if you play an auction league. So

1205
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:05,879
Speaker 4: check it out and you know, like I said, you'll

1206
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 4: have access to all three of our production sets. So

1207
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 4: it's gonna be really cool.

1208
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 2: All right. Next episode, we will start our position by

1209
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 2: position breakdowns. We're going to be looking at quarterbacks. We

1210
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 2: have some wonderful guests coming up for the next two

1211
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 2: episodes to talk about quarterbacks. Be sure to check out

1212
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 2: those episodes till then. That is going to do it

1213
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: for this NFL episode of the Action Network Podcast. Please

1214
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:30,280
Speaker 2: rate and review the show and iTunes for Sean and Chris,

1215
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:39,480
Speaker 2: I Am, Matthew Freeman, mattithorcle See again next episode.