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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Norman. She content off the Action Network. It's

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Speaker 1: March Madness, we folks. We just did a part one

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Speaker 1: podcast looking at every game on Thursday with Action Network

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Speaker 1: college basketball expert b J Cunningham. I'm joined as I

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Speaker 1: am by my BFF, my companion, Michael Padre Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 1: B J. We gotta get to part two. Simon, why

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Speaker 1: don't you get to ask about the first game? Really,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna let me go first. I want you to

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Speaker 1: go first. All it's it's a Chicago team, so I

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Speaker 1: assumed you'd be be being on it, but I got opinions.

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Speaker 1: You know, this team feels like every year they're in it.

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Speaker 1: Liola ten seed, only point five dog right now to

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Speaker 1: Ohio State the seventh seed. That's that's an interesting line

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Speaker 1: right there. What do you think of it? B J? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it is interesting because Ohio State has some injury concerns.

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Speaker 1: Z Key and Kyle Young, two of their best big men,

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Speaker 1: are questionable play on Friday. It sounds like ze Key

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Speaker 1: is likely to play, but Kyle Young is still up

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Speaker 1: in the air, which would be you know, if both

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Speaker 1: of them will play, it's a huge boost of the

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Speaker 1: buck Eyes. But like every year, this Loyal Chicago team

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Speaker 1: is incredibly difficult to beat. They finished the season seventh

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Speaker 1: ineffective field goal percentage, They spaced the floor well, their

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Speaker 1: top twenty in shot selection, thirteenth in rim and three

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Speaker 1: point rate. It's just it's a really, really difficult team

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Speaker 1: to stop. With that being said, they're going to have

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Speaker 1: to hit a ton of their ton of threes to

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Speaker 1: win this game because they're not that efficient at the rim.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State is outstanding up preventing people to get to

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Speaker 1: the rim. The pace of this game is going to

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Speaker 1: be incredibly slow and played in the half court. Both

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Speaker 1: Loyal Chicago Ohio State bottom and adjusted tempo top one

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Speaker 1: in frequency of possessions in the half court. I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. They're very talented team. They have one of

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Speaker 1: the best players in college basketball and e j Lydell,

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Speaker 1: but they're very very reliant on him scoring, especially from

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Speaker 1: the post, so they basically get down there, they throw

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Speaker 1: it into him. They gets doubled, they throw it out

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Speaker 1: and it's just it's a long possession over and over.

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Speaker 1: And that's really what Loyal Chicago does great Defensively, I

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Speaker 1: prevented forcing teams to play those long type of possessions.

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Speaker 1: So I actually love the under thirties two and a

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Speaker 1: half points with that type of slow pace pace, with

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Speaker 1: both teams being pretty good defensively and taking away some

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Speaker 1: of the advantages the other offenses have. I like the

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Speaker 1: under here. As far as a team to win this one,

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Speaker 1: I mean I'll put I'll take Loyal Chicago to move on.

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Speaker 1: I don't like it much because if those are two

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Speaker 1: Ohio State big men are playing, that's gonna be troublesome

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Speaker 1: for Loyal down loan. But I do think the Ramblers

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Speaker 1: end up advancing here more than anything, obviously, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to have any opinion because it's Chicago. I am thrilled

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Speaker 1: the Leola has established a team that has a very

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Speaker 1: specific personality and a program that can last beyond program

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Speaker 1: those who obviously left this past year. They built a

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Speaker 1: reputation like they built a Gonzaga of the Midwest, and

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Speaker 1: I think they're fantastic and they're moving to the American

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Speaker 1: Conference next year. I love that. I love that for

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Speaker 1: that team. I love it for the area, I love

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Speaker 1: it for the campus, love everything about it. Go Ramblers.

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Speaker 1: All right, Simon, we got Jacksonville State visiting a very inconsistent,

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Speaker 1: up and down Auburn team that, to me, is one

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Speaker 1: of the teams that is most reflective of the personality

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Speaker 1: of its coach in that it is frenetic, it is emotional,

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Speaker 1: it is inconsistent. It can be great, it can be maddening.

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Speaker 1: All of those things also pertain to Bruce Pearl fifteen

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against Jacksonville State. You know

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be the poor opposite of the last game

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Speaker 1: we just talked about. If you want to see a

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Speaker 1: three point shooting contest, uh, this is the game for

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Speaker 1: you because Jacksonville State, they're gonna be completely out outmatched

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Speaker 1: in the front court. Jabarr Smith and Walker Kestler have

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Speaker 1: huge size advantages over them. But if for them to

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville State to actually have a chance in this game,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have hit a boatload of three pointers. And

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Speaker 1: that hasn't been a problem for them this season because

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Speaker 1: they are eleventh in the country in three point field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage and they take them at top sixty rates.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Jacksonville States two guards, the two Jalen's Jalen

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Speaker 1: Gibs and Jalen Fitch Finch, are both shooting over from

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Speaker 1: behind the arc. Auburn defensively is very hard to score

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Speaker 1: at the rim with those two big guys, but they

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Speaker 1: do tend to struggle defending three pointers. So Jacksonville State

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Speaker 1: is absolutely gonna be able to stay in this game.

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Speaker 1: The pace is gonna be, like you said, Frenetick fast

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Speaker 1: if it's played at Auburn's liking their top ten in

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Speaker 1: the country in terms of efficiency in transition. Well that's

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Speaker 1: also good for Jacksonville State, who's also top ten in

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Speaker 1: terms of efficiency in transition. So if this turns into

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Speaker 1: a track meet three point shooting contest, I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be just scoring galore. But the worry I

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Speaker 1: have for Jacksonville State is their two biggest guys or

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Speaker 1: six ten and six seven. That is not good going

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Speaker 1: against Barri Smith and Walker Kestler, who are six eleven

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Speaker 1: and six and seven to so given the fact that

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville State shots a ton of three pointers, they're efficient

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Speaker 1: in transition and the pace this game is if it's

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Speaker 1: played fast and should be because you know, Auburn is

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Speaker 1: the favorite. I love over a hundred and thirty six

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Speaker 1: and a half points here. I think this is gonna

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Speaker 1: go way way over the total given the style that

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Speaker 1: this game is gonna be played at. I like that

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Speaker 1: you're giving us totals and not just focusing on the sides.

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Speaker 1: Because now we got an opportunity for every market. We

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Speaker 1: get the fourth team seed, Montana State, playing against what

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Speaker 1: you said, it is one of the best defenses in

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Speaker 1: the country, Texas Tech fifty and a half points. That's

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Speaker 1: a lot of points for a team that is, you know,

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Speaker 1: defensively strong, but are they offensively strong to cover that number?

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Speaker 1: Is this one of those that the bookmakers are saying

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Speaker 1: this team won't be able to keep up with such

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Speaker 1: a great defense. This is one ultimately be passing on.

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Speaker 1: I think Texas Tech, you know, cruises here, but there

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Speaker 1: is one little bugaboo troublesomething for Texas Tech. The Montana State.

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Speaker 1: They get to the free throw line at the fifth

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Speaker 1: highest rate in the country, and well, Texas Tech does

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Speaker 1: everything well defensively, that's one area they tend to struggle

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Speaker 1: with their two in thirty seconds in free throw rate allowed.

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Speaker 1: So if Montana Day is able to get them in

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Speaker 1: foul trouble and gets the free throw and they could

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Speaker 1: stay in this uh there. You know, the Bobcats are

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Speaker 1: very efficient in both transition and the half court. But

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Speaker 1: like I said, this is the number one team in

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Speaker 1: terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, number one team in college

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Speaker 1: basketball in half court defense. Montana State the two biggest

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Speaker 1: nonconference teams they played where Colorado and South Dakota State,

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Speaker 1: and they were pretty efficient fishing offensively in both those games.

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Speaker 1: But this is a really really bad matchup for them,

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Speaker 1: and then really just a massive step up in competition

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Speaker 1: from what they've been seeing in the Big Sky Conference.

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Speaker 1: You know, Montana State, it's not that greater defensive team,

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Speaker 1: especially in transition. Uh. Texas Tech is third in terms

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Speaker 1: of efficiency and transition, but they don't. They play a

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Speaker 1: pretty slow pace and they don't get out and transition

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Speaker 1: that much. So it's it's kind of a weird matchup.

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Speaker 1: I do think the line is absolutely correct and along

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Speaker 1: with the total, uh maybe look at it and over

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Speaker 1: if this game is if Montana State push this to

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Speaker 1: an above average tempo which they usually play at UM.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Ultimate really is just another one of those

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Speaker 1: matchups that has given me a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: head scratcher. So I will ultimately passing Texas Tech, Loyal

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Speaker 1: per Due. Three college basketball programs that are sustaining success

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Speaker 1: after like the long time or which they brought them

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Speaker 1: to that level of success, got them there. I love that.

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Speaker 1: I love that for these programs, Legacy, legacy, what we're

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Speaker 1: doing with the Action Network long after I'm gone, Matt Mitchel,

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Speaker 1: B J. Simon. Yes, I'm putting myself in the same

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Speaker 1: category as Gene Katie. You guys, we'll be just taking

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Speaker 1: the Action Network to the tournament every year, losing in

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Speaker 1: the second round, and it's going to be fantastic. The

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Speaker 1: Yale Bulldogs winners of the IVY League being Princeton, they

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Speaker 1: get the benefit of getting into the tournament to be

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Speaker 1: sixteen point under out to the Produce Boiling Makers. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is um gonna be a very very interesting game,

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Speaker 1: and I think one that's gonna be played in a

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Speaker 1: pretty high tempo with a lot of scoring. So Produe

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Speaker 1: ended this season third in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency

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Speaker 1: and as you saw in the Big Ten, tournament. They

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Speaker 1: have two incredible big men and Zachie who's seven four

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Speaker 1: in Trevion Williams, who was about as physical and skilled

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Speaker 1: of a big man that you're gonna find in college basketball.

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Speaker 1: Their top twelve and two point in three point field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage. They're unbelievably good in transition, where I think

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Speaker 1: most of this game is gonna be played. Yale does

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Speaker 1: play at a pretty fast paced or a six in

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Speaker 1: adjusted tempo. Their average possession linked on defense is ninth

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Speaker 1: lowest in the country, which means teams are either getting

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Speaker 1: shots up in transition what they're scoring very quickly in

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Speaker 1: the half court, which definitely UH favors Perdue. And this

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Speaker 1: one the biggest problem is Yale is not a good defensive,

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Speaker 1: rebounding team or defending at the rim, which is a

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Speaker 1: big big problem facing produced so I think produced scores

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Speaker 1: at well. I mean Isaiah Kelly is their starting center

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Speaker 1: for Yale. He is six ft seven trying to defend

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Speaker 1: a seven four zach eat, so Perdue a big time

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Speaker 1: advantages on the flip side. Perdue not that great of

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Speaker 1: a defensive team eleven a hundredth in the country and

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Speaker 1: adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Palm there three d sixteenth

201
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Speaker 1: in points procesession allowed in transition defense, three second in

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Speaker 1: defending midrange jumpers, which Yale is twenty most efficient net

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Speaker 1: on offense. So the total is set at a hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty three. Given the fact that Yale plays at

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Speaker 1: a fast pace produe is incredibly good in transition offensively

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Speaker 1: but really bad defensively. I think we're gonna go way

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Speaker 1: over that total. So I love over a hundred forty

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Speaker 1: three points. All. We got the fifteen seed Delaware, which

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Speaker 1: is a school I did get into Chad, but they

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Speaker 1: wouldn't give me any money, so I was not allowed

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Speaker 1: to go there. Delaware versus Nova the two seed fifteen

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Speaker 1: and a half a lot of points. Yeah, it is

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Speaker 1: a tad high, uh, And I think that if it

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Speaker 1: gets a little higher, I might end up playing Delaware,

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Speaker 1: who finished the season as the number one team in

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Speaker 1: the CIA in terms of just offensive efficiency. But I

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Speaker 1: don't think that will translate too well against Villanova. They

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Speaker 1: played a team in very similar in terms of the

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Speaker 1: style of Illanova, which is very slow pace, very sufficient defense,

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Speaker 1: and shoots a ton of threes. They played Davidson in

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Speaker 1: the first game of the season, they got their doors

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Speaker 1: blown off seventy one Davis hit fourteen threes against them.

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Speaker 1: That was the first game of the season, I understand,

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Speaker 1: but that's also the last time they saw a team

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Speaker 1: even close to the caliber they're going to face against Villanova.

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Speaker 1: Delaware not a good defense against three pointers two fifty

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Speaker 1: seventh in the country and three point philbo percential out

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Speaker 1: against the Villanova team that shoots the twenty three highest

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Speaker 1: rate in terms of three pointers in the country. So

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Speaker 1: very very bad matchup here for Delaware. But Delaware is

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Speaker 1: good at defending and transition um. But for those, like

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Speaker 1: I said, Villanova has played a very very slow pace,

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Speaker 1: with almost all of it coming in the half court.

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Speaker 1: So it's a really tough match up here for Delaware.

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Speaker 1: But with that being said, the number is getting steamed.

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Speaker 1: It is getting a tattoo high. If Villanova shoots up

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Speaker 1: to sixteen and a half seventeen, I might have to

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Speaker 1: end up playing Delaware, but other than that, I will

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Speaker 1: be staying away. Miami sneaks into the tournament as a

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Speaker 1: what looks like a ten seed. They're playing the usc Trojans,

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Speaker 1: which has become a very consistent program. They're one and

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Speaker 1: a half favorites USC is. I think USC covers and advances,

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Speaker 1: so they have a pretty massive size advantage against Miami

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Speaker 1: Trojans or fourth and average heights. Miami is two twelve,

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Speaker 1: but Miami is the most efficient team in scoring in

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Speaker 1: transition in all of college basketball. Will you USC is

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Speaker 1: in the bottom half in defending and transition. However, I

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Speaker 1: still like this match from USC. The Trojans are the

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Speaker 1: number two team in the country in fieldal percentage, a

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Speaker 1: lout at the rim, where a lot of Miami shots

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Speaker 1: are coming from because they have one of the lower

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Speaker 1: three point rates in the a SEC. So if Miami

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Speaker 1: isn't shooting a high number three pointers and isn't able

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Speaker 1: to score effectively at the rim, that means gonna be

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Speaker 1: forced into a ton of mid range jumpers, which USC

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Speaker 1: is pretty good at defending. On the flip side, USC

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Speaker 1: with their size that the time of post ups with

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Speaker 1: Isaaiah Mobli, which is a big, big advantage against Miami,

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Speaker 1: who's outside the top two post of defense and field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage allowed at the rims. So also USC twenty

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Speaker 1: six and offensive rebounding Miami two sixty six. That keeping

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Speaker 1: teams off the offensive glass. So outside of the kind

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Speaker 1: of a bad matchup for USC and Transition given their

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Speaker 1: size advantage, and I think they'll be able to dominate

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Speaker 1: Miami downlow. So I love the Trojans to cover minus

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Speaker 1: were and a half in advance the second round and

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Speaker 1: BJ thanks again. Man at Virginia Tech, which is the

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Speaker 1: next game where I talk about that was such a

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Speaker 1: great call. I'm a Duke fan, so for me, it's

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Speaker 1: it hurt to lose and coach K lose like that.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know, I hate too, so I savored

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Speaker 1: every single moment, you know what. I was thinking about

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Speaker 1: hedging it, but at this last second, I was kind

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Speaker 1: of just like, you know what, let's just it's ten

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Speaker 1: to one. Let's just let it ride. Yeah, let it ride.

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Speaker 1: I got nine to one, so I like, again, kid,

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Speaker 1: I was like, you know what, that sucked for Coach K,

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Speaker 1: but I just made nine K to watch a basketball game,

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Speaker 1: so exactly. Yeah. I mean, listen, Virginia Tech is an

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Speaker 1: incredibly underrated team. You saw me CE tournament. Back to

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Speaker 1: the same thing I spoke about with IOWA. These teams

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Speaker 1: that aren't used to winning the conference tournaments, aren't used

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Speaker 1: to going deep. I really worry about the hangover playing

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Speaker 1: four games in four days and having that type of

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Speaker 1: you know, that that high of winning the tournament and

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Speaker 1: then coming in and having to play a very very

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Speaker 1: good Texas team that grades out very well analytically. But

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Speaker 1: there are just so many times with Texas, and the

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Speaker 1: TCU game is a perfect example in the Big Twelve tournament,

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Speaker 1: where they just go through these scoring droughts that completely

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Speaker 1: take them out of the game. I mean, Texas, they're

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Speaker 1: the second best team in college basketball and points for

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Speaker 1: possession allowed in half court defense, so you know, Virginia

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Speaker 1: plays at a snail's pace with most of their possessions

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Speaker 1: coming in the half court. So that's not really that

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Speaker 1: great of a matchup for them. But as we spoke

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Speaker 1: about the last podcast, Virginia's Tech really really efficient three

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Speaker 1: point shooting team over thirty nine percent from behind the

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Speaker 1: arc this season. But it's really hard because I really

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Speaker 1: do like Virginia Techs matchup, I really do. I think

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Speaker 1: they're one of the more Andrea team to college basketball,

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Speaker 1: and Texas has given me so many bad vibes all

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Speaker 1: season long. But then you look at look at it

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Speaker 1: analytically and you're like, Okay, this is not the best

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Speaker 1: matchup for Virginia techs, so I will ultimately be passing

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Speaker 1: doing how good Texas defense has been all season long.

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Speaker 1: This could be a good live betting situation if Virginia

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Speaker 1: Tech gets down from that hangover from the a CEC

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Speaker 1: tournament as we saw so many times with Texas just

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Speaker 1: blowing these type of huge leads. So you could be

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Speaker 1: a better number on Virginia Tech live. But unless the

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Speaker 1: Hoaxes get to plus two and a half or plus three,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna ultimately be passing and just waiting to bet

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Speaker 1: this life. What about just advancing? I will be picking

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Speaker 1: Virginia Tech to advance in my bracket. Do you think

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Speaker 1: they are a better team than Texas? But I will

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Speaker 1: say it does not give me a good feeling, give

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Speaker 1: you a yucky feeling, Yes, gives me a hangover feeling. Chet.

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Speaker 1: The next matchup is Chattanooga at Illinois. Listen, Illinois. We

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Speaker 1: talked about this. I feel they've been inconsistent. They proved

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Speaker 1: it during the Big Ten Attorney. I feel like the

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Speaker 1: past two years, even when they were number one seed

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Speaker 1: last year, a little bit overhyped. Great in the middle

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Speaker 1: with Kofi obviously but chat was live to me. I

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Speaker 1: just gotta say, yes, they definitely are alive. In this

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Speaker 1: number is a tad inflated. I mean, Chattan has two

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Speaker 1: incredible players Malachi Smith and Kansas transfer Silvio and Desusa

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Speaker 1: are two we're two of the best big two, best

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Speaker 1: two players in the whole SOAC on this year, and

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Speaker 1: Desuza can definitely match up with KOFE down low. The mocks. No,

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Speaker 1: if you remember they wanted that desperation three beat fermant

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Speaker 1: to go to the tournament, you know, just one of

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Speaker 1: those uh first basket that's like, hey, we're finally here

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Speaker 1: at March. Defensively, they're not that great, I'll be honest.

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Speaker 1: Uh they pretty much every category you look at down

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Speaker 1: the line they tend to struggle in and to beat Illinois.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously they've been inconsistent. But you have to

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Speaker 1: defend in the post well against KOFE. You have to

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Speaker 1: defend the pick and roll well, which they run a

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Speaker 1: ton of with KOFE. And you have been three point

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Speaker 1: line because they can throw four shooters out there on

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Speaker 1: the three point line and just you know, run away

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Speaker 1: with it. A certain type of game. Now, the reason

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Speaker 1: they've been kind of inconsistent. Is they weren't hitting the

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Speaker 1: three pointers at the high of the at higher rate

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Speaker 1: in the Big Ten Conference that they were uh in

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Speaker 1: the non conference. But on the flip side, you know,

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Speaker 1: for Chattanooga offensively, they're gonna have to push the pace

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Speaker 1: to compete in this game. They don't spend a ton

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Speaker 1: of time in transition, but they are very very efficient

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Speaker 1: there twenty five in the nation points per possession, Illinois

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Speaker 1: defensively seven in defending and transition. Chattanooga also very good

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Speaker 1: offensive rebounding team. It hardly turns the ball over. It's

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Speaker 1: a really really good team. It worries me how bad

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Speaker 1: they aren't defensively and that Illinois could just score at

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Speaker 1: will on them, But they definitely do have the talent

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Speaker 1: and the offense to hang with Illinois. And I do

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Speaker 1: think Illinois is a tad overvalued on the spread here

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Speaker 1: that I think the line should be around five. UM

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Speaker 1: So I do like chattanoog get plus seven and a halfeed,

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Speaker 1: cal State Fullerton is playing Duke, a two seed. Coach

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Speaker 1: K's last run in March Madness plus nineteen. That's that's

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Speaker 1: a lot Duke will get by this one. But Duke

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Speaker 1: can't stop anything right now. They can't turn anybody over,

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Speaker 1: they can't stop anybody in transition, and they're horrible at

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Speaker 1: defending three pointers. Cal State Fullerton split in terms of

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Speaker 1: their percentage of possessions in both half court and transition,

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Speaker 1: but they don't take a high number of free pointers.

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Speaker 1: So I think Duke might be a little bit off

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Speaker 1: the hook here in the first round. You know, Calsa Florton,

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Speaker 1: they do not have the size to compete with Duke.

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Speaker 1: They're pretty poor at defending threes, so I think this

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Speaker 1: line is pretty much spot on along with the overrunders,

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Speaker 1: so I will ultimately passing. But what I will say

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Speaker 1: is if Davidson gets by Mischion State, I will be

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Speaker 1: fading Duke so hard in the second round. Duke last

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Speaker 1: four games allowed over one point one point for possession

378
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Speaker 1: in North Caronta, Syracuse without Buddy Beheim, Miami, and Virginia Peck.

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Speaker 1: They are ripe for a big time upset playing especially

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Speaker 1: a David's team filled with guys who wanted to go

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Speaker 1: to Duke but coach K wouldn't recruit. So that I'll

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Speaker 1: just say I love Davidson if they can get by

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Speaker 1: to face Duke UH Davidson. Also one of the teams

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Speaker 1: that we wrote about an action network that's getting a

385
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 1: lot of wise guy love right now. Iowa State UH

386
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Speaker 1: and Louisiana State. Louisiana State the team that best represents

387
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 1: the history of corruption and malfeasance in sort of the

388
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Speaker 1: best representation of that from the state known for it

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Speaker 1: long live herely long. Right. Well wait, it has been fired. Man,

390
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Speaker 1: that guy had nine lives, but there's still four point

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Speaker 1: favorites Agasiowa State. Yeah. I guess that shows you just

392
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Speaker 1: how bad the sanctions were. Have to fire a coach

393
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Speaker 1: the day before the selection Sunday. Yeah, yeah, So, I

394
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Speaker 1: mean the Tigers are absolutely influx. This is a game

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Speaker 1: I will ultimately passing on. Maybe potentially, I think you

396
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Speaker 1: could play a live under. These are two teams, both

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Speaker 1: top ten in the country and adjust the defensive efficiency

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Speaker 1: both top five and turnover percentage, while both offenses are

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00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 1: outside the top three hundred in terms of turning the

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Speaker 1: ball over. So if I'm playing anything, I mean the

401
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 1: total set one one, seven and a half. That's fairly

402
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 1: priced and honestly pretty low. Um, But you know, both

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Speaker 1: these teams if they come out shooting lights out. I

404
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,400
Speaker 1: think that that's obviously gonna regress to is the main

405
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 1: because both are hitting under from behind the arc, and

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Speaker 1: these are also two of the twenty best three point

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Speaker 1: field goal defenses in the country. So we'll be trying

408
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 1: to look to play alive under. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: we'll be able to. It might come out and these

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00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 1: teams might just turn the ball over back and forth

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Speaker 1: for the first ten minutes, but that is where I'd

412
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 1: be looking. But definitely just completely staying away from this

413
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Speaker 1: altogether because I was state, I mean, they are so

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00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 1: so bad in the half court, really, they they've regressed

415
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 1: so much from They obviously had a high at the

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00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: beginning of the season. They were outperforming and then they

417
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 1: regressed all the way back down to earth, which was

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Speaker 1: so so sweet to see as any fan, start your

419
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 1: bracket with a bang right now, Fando Sports Book is

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Speaker 1: giving you customers a one hundred and fifty dollar instant

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423
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424
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,719
Speaker 1: or more. How you bet. The bracket is up to you.

425
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 1: You can choose from the money line, totals, prof bets,

426
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: and so much more. This tournament. I'm loving Sandy A

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00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 1: State Arizona and i love Colorado State plus with cash

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449
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. So we got twelve seed U

450
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 1: a B at the Blazer saw dude playing the five

451
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: seed Houston eight and a half is the spread eight

452
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 1: and a half? Yeah, u AB has got a guy

453
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: point guard if you watched him in the Conference us

454
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: A tournament, jelly Walker, Uh absolutely electric point guard. You

455
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: know how hung forty in a triple overtime game against

456
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee. But listen, I know everybody's gonna love jelly

457
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 1: Walker and this is gonna be a very very trendy

458
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: underdog because they're fun. I mean, who doesn't want to

459
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: bet on a fun team? Who wants doesn't want to fund?

460
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 1: Seemed to advance, But this is a really, really bad

461
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 1: matchup for them. Houston despite losing some key pieces injury wise.

462
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 1: Really on the season, they finished top five in the

463
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 1: Ken Palm rankings and there are fifth they're they're five

464
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 1: seed and their top eleven both adjusted defensive and offensive

465
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: efficiency eleventh and defensively their eleventh feel in UH three

466
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: point field well percentage allowed eighth and two point field

467
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: percentage allowed top twenty in both half court and transition defense.

468
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 1: They turn opponents over to high rate, and they're very

469
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: good defensive rebounding teams. So I understand everybody loves jelly Walker.

470
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 1: I understand he's fun, but this is a really really

471
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 1: bad matchup for U A B two UH. Even though

472
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 1: they took a ton of threes in this Commence USA Tournament,

473
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: they're actually one of the lower three point rate teams

474
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: in the entire country, only two to be exact, but

475
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: they are heading over thirty eight percent of the season.

476
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: Jelly Walker um u AB is actually one of the

477
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 1: highest mid range jumper for frequency teams in all of

478
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: college basketball, which is bad news against Houston, who is

479
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 1: seventh at defending mid range jumpers. So the market has

480
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,679
Speaker 1: correctly priced this. I believe Houston being a minus eight

481
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. You know, if Jelly Walker

482
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: hot and they go up early. You might feel Houston

483
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: had a better number, but I will ultimately passing. You know,

484
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: you mentioned adjusted UH efficiency for offense and defense. Ryan

485
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: Collinsworth has this incredible piece that he's done the past

486
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 1: three seasons UH well the past four, but three final

487
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 1: fours because we missed one about UH. It's it's based

488
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 1: on a formgula that includes offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and

489
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: marginal victory, and it has been incredibly accurate at predicting

490
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 1: who would advance right and so based on this formula,

491
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: the teams that heat pinpoints have made it to the

492
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: sweet sixteen every single year, all sixteen teams advanced to

493
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,239
Speaker 1: the round of thirty two. Fourteen teams have made it.

494
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 1: Of the teams that sort of fit this bill that

495
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 1: he has predicted have made it to the sweet six

496
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: team in the paste refinal UH tournaments that he's written

497
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: about ten have made it to the Elite eight and five.

498
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: So that's five twelve and made it to the final four.

499
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 1: You mentioned Houston adjusted off into efficiency. They're one of

500
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 1: the ten teams that qualifies, along with Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke, Auburn,

501
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: U C l A, Kansas, and Nova. So all teams

502
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: that we've been talking about in both podcasts that we

503
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: like to advance. You've got Kentucky and Zona in your

504
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: final four if I'm not mistaken, So you know we're

505
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: aligning the stars here a little bit. All right, we

506
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 1: talked about Davidson, what a great match of that would

507
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: be if they get to play Duke there against Michigan State.

508
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: We've now went through the games. I will not be

509
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: awake for Michigan State. I always think Thomazo and Michigan

510
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,479
Speaker 1: State is overrated and inflated in the tournament. There one

511
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 1: or a half point favorites against Davidson, and you would

512
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: be correct in this type of matchup. They are one

513
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: of the more over eight teams in all of college basket.

514
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: So uh, Like I mentioned earlier, there's a shot a

515
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: site called shot quality that measures basically expected results for

516
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: certain teams. They you know, keep track of what team's

517
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 1: records should be based on the quality of shots they take,

518
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: essentially expected points. So Michigan State finished the season, finished

519
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 1: the season with the six ten record over the last

520
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 1: sixteen games. But if you look at their shot quality

521
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 1: record in games essentially they should have won. They only

522
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 1: should have won one of them. They should have gone

523
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: one in fifteen to end the season. So uh, for

524
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: a team that is two in offensive efficiency in terms

525
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: of their shot shot selection three thirty four and rim

526
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 1: and three point rate, which are the two most valuable

527
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 1: shots in half court offense, that has caused the Spartans

528
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 1: two rank outside the top two hundred points per possession

529
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: in both the half court and transition. So even though

530
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 1: Davidson isn't that great of a defensive team, Michigan State

531
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 1: is not going to be able to exploit their weaknesses. Uh.

532
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: Davidson also top ten defensive rebounding teams, so there can

533
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: be very few second chance points for the Spartans. If

534
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: you haven't seen Davidson play one of the one of

535
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 1: the best shooting teams in all of college basketball. They

536
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: can just shoot anybody right out of the gym. I

537
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: mean they finished the season shooting over thirty eight percent

538
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: from behind the arc, you know, top six, and both

539
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: catch and shooting off drible three pointers. They can really

540
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: just do it all from behind the arc. The thing

541
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: about Davidson I mentioned earlier, they played a very very

542
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 1: slow tempo one of the highest frequency teams coming in

543
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: the half court. Their third in points for possession and

544
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: half court offense, while Michigan State is outside the top

545
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 1: one in defending in the half court, so that that

546
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: slow pace will be big in this matchup. Michigan State

547
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: with UH plays primarily a lot of their possessions in transition.

548
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: So I just absolutely love Davids's probably my favorite play

549
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 1: in all of Friday. But there is one good storyline here.

550
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: Davidson's starting point guard UH Foster Lawyer played at Michigan

551
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: State for three years. He was a captain there, but

552
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 1: he mainly was on the bench. Transferred to Davidson this season,

553
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: is having a complete breakout years they're starting point guard

554
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,479
Speaker 1: and now has a big time revenge spot to get

555
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 1: his old team back. And also Michigan State has some

556
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: injury concerns. Point guard Tyson Walker is questionable for this one,

557
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 1: so I really don't think the Wildcats should be underdogs

558
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: at all here. So I love Davidson money line plus two.

559
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: Whatever you want to do throwing around Robin Uh that's

560
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 1: my best bet for the entire Friday. You like sorry,

561
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 1: you like Davidson and make a run this year. Yeah, though,

562
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 1: I I they are I believe around eight or around

563
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: seven to six plus six eighty on fandable to make

564
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen. Thinking by Michigan State. They are not

565
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 1: going to be plus six eight against Duke. I can

566
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 1: tell you that much. So I think that's a wonderful,

567
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: wonderful price for the Wildcats to to get to the

568
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: Sweet six team. Next up, we got the fourteen seed

569
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: Colgate Dental School verse three seed Wisconsin plus seven. Yeah,

570
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 1: this is uh Wisconsin. Essentially it's a home game for

571
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: them because it's gonna be in Milwaukee, but this Colgate

572
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 1: team is going to give them a ton of problems.

573
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: Similar to Providence Wisconsin, Wisconsin drastically overperformed. It was pretty

574
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: lucky this season. They were fifteen and three in games

575
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: to stuf out of by six points or less. Now

576
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: you know, that is actually one of the best records

577
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: in all of college basketball history. So an area around

578
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: is like, well, they have the clutch, the clutch gene.

579
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: You know, uh, they can win these type of close

580
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: games well statistically and as you know Simon and Chad

581
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: that these type of things tend to regress towards the mean,

582
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: and you saw it in their last two games, when

583
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: they lost games in Nebraska and Michigan State. Matchup wise,

584
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: Colgate is the third most efficient three point shooting team

585
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: in the entire country, their top twelve and points possession

586
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: in both half court and transition. That transition number is

587
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: key because Wisconsin. If this turns into attract me, Wisconsin

588
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: is terrible in transition. Now, Wisconsin, offensively, they have the

589
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: Big Ten Player of the Year, Johnny Davis, who makes

590
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: up a ton of makes up for a ton of

591
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 1: their real inefficiencies on offense. However, he's coming off a

592
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: brutal ankle injury and he definitely wasn't a percent the

593
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: Big Ten Tournament against Michigan State, went three of nineteen

594
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: from the field only scored eleven points. If he is

595
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: the Badgers are in big, big time trouble. Also, the

596
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: way to beat Colgate you gotta get out in transition.

597
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 1: They are one of the ten worst teams in college

598
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: basketball and transition defense. But Wisconsin, they play a really

599
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 1: slow pace there. They have the twelve highest frequency of

600
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: their possessions coming in the half court, so they're not

601
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: used to getting up in transition and beating Colgate are

602
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: doing what they need to do to beat Colgates. So

603
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: I love Colgate in this match, but another fun team

604
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 1: to throw a money line round, Robin, I love them

605
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half loved them on the money line.

606
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: This is a really, really bad matchup for Wisconsin in

607
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: the first round, even though it is kind of a

608
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 1: home game in Milwaukee. All right, now we're ending it

609
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: with like a couple of you juicy spicy money lines.

610
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: I like that last game TCU Seton Hall Seaton Hall

611
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: short favorite here. Yeah, another game that's similar to the

612
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: last game on Thursday. They might put you to bed

613
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: earlier than expected. So if you're gonna beat TCU, you've

614
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: got to keep them off the offensive glass. They are

615
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: second in the country an offensive rebounding percentage, And while

616
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: Seaton Hall isn't a great defensive rebounding team, they definitely

617
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: have the size advantage down low, and they have some

618
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: other advantage that I believe will be able to outweigh

619
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: that advantage that TCU has on the boards. First off,

620
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: Seton Hall is third in the country and field will

621
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: percentage allowed at the rim, which is basically all TCU

622
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: uh does. They try to get all their shot attempts

623
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 1: closer to the rim because they have the eighth highest

624
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: rim frequency rate in the nation, but they're in terms

625
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: of their fieldal percentage there, so that's pretty big advantage

626
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: for Seaton Hall even if they do give up those

627
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: too many offensive rebounds of TCU can't put those back

628
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: uh at the rim. Secondly, Seaton Hall seventh in the

629
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: country in half court and points perossession all out and

630
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: half court defense. TCU plays an incredibly slow pace with

631
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: a lot of their possessions coming in the half court.

632
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 1: So seton Hall. Even though they're not a great defensive

633
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: rebounding team, I think this is a really good matchup

634
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: for them against TCU, who, Yes, they'll have a lot

635
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds, but they're not really efficient at putting those backups.

636
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: So I love Seaton Hall on the money line minus

637
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: one ten. I think they should be uh closer to

638
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: two or three point favorites. All Right, we went through

639
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: every Thursday game in part one. We went through every

640
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: Thursday game in part two. Reminder your final four texas

641
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 1: to check out of the West, Kentucky out of the East,

642
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: Arizona out of the South, and Iowa out of the Midwest.

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Speaker 1: And you like Arizona to beat Kentucky in the National

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Speaker 1: Championship Game. First title for Arizona. Sin is what it

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Speaker 1: would be. B J. Countyham, you did a herculean job

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Speaker 1: of lifting us through March madness. We appreciate it. Everyone

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Speaker 1: should go read your stuff. Read all of our college

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Speaker 1: basketball coverage. Action Network app, Action Network dot Com for

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter might beff my companion for Matt Mitchell, our producer,

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. This has been the favorite podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network, down the Letter and Spotify,

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast right review you subscribe,

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Speaker 1: give us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as

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Speaker 1: a gift. We will see you and talk to you

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Speaker 1: and engage with with you next week. Until then, I

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Speaker 1: love you. M