Speaker 1: Check it out, man. This is probably as fun and
Speaker 1: as hard as it gets for us. This is the
Speaker 1: Indian to use Drew's term, the Indian Wells Tennis Betting
Speaker 1: Preview podcast. We have done this now for several years
Speaker 1: in a row. This is tennis is de facto fifth Major,
Speaker 1: the BNP parry By Open, which I am going to
Speaker 1: on Friday. I cannot wait my second year going three years.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Let me just tell you how this is working. This year,
Speaker 1: Drew is skiing. I think one year we had Drew
Speaker 1: actually on the slope, but we didn't even have the
Speaker 1: manpower to do the Drew Densic version of this. So
Speaker 1: Drew is making this happen. From where are you skiing?
Speaker 2: Drew Grew?
Speaker 1: First of all, whale underscore capper. You know Drew from
Speaker 1: is the co host of, of course, both the Deep Dive
Speaker 1: Podcast with Andy Molitor and NBC Sports Bet the Edge
Speaker 1: with Jim Croucher. Thank you for.
Speaker 2: Doing, of course. So I'm in the beautiful Jackson Hole
Speaker 2: wholming and uh actually kind of some breaking news for
Speaker 2: the hardcore tennis folks. They're going to Sunset Bet the
Speaker 2: Edge at least until football season. We're going to do.
Speaker 2: We're basically just going to do like video on video
Speaker 2: on demand type of short form for NBA games series, tennis, uh,
Speaker 2: you know, for for the rev off season here while
Speaker 2: we wait for NFL comeback. So wow, Yeah, the podcast
Speaker 2: wasn't doing as well as we were doing these bedded
Speaker 2: in a minute after we recorded the podcasts that were
Speaker 2: they just did like Banana's numbers and sales for clicks
Speaker 2: compared to the podcast. So they were like, well, we
Speaker 2: need to do that for NBA. We need to kind
Speaker 2: of solidify ourselves as like the NBA, you know, kind
Speaker 2: of come to this place space handicap so and tennis
Speaker 2: as well. Like we'll do we'll do them for the
Speaker 2: French Open, We'll do it for them.
Speaker 1: I can't wait, So, so explain where people can see
Speaker 1: this online.
Speaker 2: As soon as I know, I'll tell you.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I'm like wait, wait my yeah, Well
Speaker 1: that's great, yeah man, right.
Speaker 2: I mean it's better than not having any other.
Speaker 1: Fine point. Yes, all right, So we're doing this just
Speaker 1: so y'all know. We're doing this at four thirty ish
Speaker 1: specific time, the draw was supposed to be from three
Speaker 1: to four. The draw was from three to four. Indian Wells.
Speaker 1: If I'm to sort of echo everyboding on Twitter. They
Speaker 1: do everything else right. The draw may be not the
Speaker 1: greatest thing because they don't live stream it, so apparently did.
Speaker 1: They did the ladies draw first, that didn't get put
Speaker 1: out in a bracket form. Then they did the men's
Speaker 1: and that is in a bracket form, even though we
Speaker 1: had to have like subruder film footage of the of
Speaker 1: the brackets being displayed on the board up there at
Speaker 1: Tennis Garden there at Indian well so we can see it.
Speaker 1: So we have a we have a full sense of
Speaker 1: the men's bracket, not quite a full sense of the ladies,
Speaker 1: but we do kind of know the ladies. Before we
Speaker 1: get into any of that and any specifics, we got
Speaker 1: to start with this, which is the surface itself. That
Speaker 1: is the biggest news. And this happened yesterday where it
Speaker 1: just I don't know if you had any knowledge of
Speaker 1: this drew, but this kind of.
Speaker 2: Competitively understand how this happens at all.
Speaker 1: I don't either. How do they keep the secret? I
Speaker 1: have no idea, So just to let everybody know, So
Speaker 1: this is hard courts, but Indian Wells for the last
Speaker 1: twenty five years has really been the among the slow,
Speaker 1: if not the slowest, of hard courts. Right it's this gritty,
Speaker 1: sandy kind of surface which was called I want to
Speaker 1: be very very thorough about this, it was called plexipave.
Speaker 2: For those of you who are really hard o's.
Speaker 1: You may know Plexi pave. Of course, they announced yesterday
Speaker 1: that they're changing their surface provider to something called Lake Cold,
Speaker 1: which is what they use on the second half of
Speaker 1: the Sunshine Double in Miami. It's a thousand and thousand
Speaker 1: tournaments back to back here before they go to clay
Speaker 1: and also at the US Open. They've been using Lake
Speaker 1: Colt since twenty twenty. And the press release and this
Speaker 1: is where I want to get your reaction. I want
Speaker 1: to get your reaction all this, but the press release says,
Speaker 1: by tailoring our courts to match the playing conditions, we've
Speaker 1: enabled tennis to move seamlessly around the world. This cross
Speaker 1: continental consistency ensures that within in between events, all courts
Speaker 1: are equal and the tennis comes down to the players.
Speaker 1: That's good for everyone.
Speaker 2: It's good for everyone. But but but us.
Speaker 1: Who wants this?
Speaker 2: I don't want this.
Speaker 1: This is not what I wanted. I wanted it to
Speaker 1: stay how it was. What are they doing?
Speaker 2: I mean, first they got first say, watered down Miami,
Speaker 2: and they're not playing it at Biscame Bay with the
Speaker 2: Iguanas anymore. They're playing at the stupid They're playing at
Speaker 2: the stupid hard rock the park. Yeah, just the no
Speaker 2: character hard rock Miami Stadium is now the home of
Speaker 2: Miami blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: And then this game, it is beautiful.
Speaker 2: It's kind of the only missing around around there. Like,
Speaker 2: I don't like Miami at all. I will take q
Speaker 2: Skane I need to Yeah, yes, yeah, no. So yeah,
Speaker 2: first they first they ruined Miami. Now they're ruining Indian wells.
Speaker 2: It's wild. Uh And yeah, I like, I don't think
Speaker 2: the players actually least, I've never heard them clamoring for consistency.
Speaker 2: I've never heard them being like, man, we really wish
Speaker 2: they were all the same. Every tournament was the same
Speaker 2: and the same people have the same advantages that No,
Speaker 2: you want variety, you want differentiation. And just because Medvedev
Speaker 2: happens to complain and belly ache every year because it's
Speaker 2: too slow of a hardcore for him, doesn't mean you
Speaker 2: should kowtow to you know, the the weird louder voices.
Speaker 2: I don't think. And this was such a perfect kind
Speaker 2: of kick off, like the true kickoff of the season,
Speaker 2: like nobody really like you know, everybody knows the Australian
Speaker 2: Open is like it's cool that it happens at early
Speaker 2: the Daytona five hundred of tennis where it's like, wow,
Speaker 2: tennis is back and bang we're right into a major, right,
Speaker 2: But like the next month and change is pretty preseason.
Speaker 2: Me and Indian Wells always served as a perfect sort
Speaker 2: of real kickoff to the spring and having a slower
Speaker 2: hard court in the mix before we got to the
Speaker 2: European clay was awesome. And if it's this effectively we
Speaker 2: get four weeks of Indian Wells replay it again in
Speaker 2: Miami and in the you know and like the uh,
Speaker 2: you know, the clinical confines of hard Rock Stadium, then yeah,
Speaker 2: this is not serving tennis well. I don't think it's
Speaker 2: definitely not serving tennis better as well. Any advantage you
Speaker 2: had of kind of knowing who's going to be able
Speaker 2: to thrive in these conditions is now out the window,
Speaker 2: and that stinks tennis.
Speaker 1: It's the worst for tennis better. Is it kind of
Speaker 1: stinks for tennis fans too, even if they sure like
Speaker 1: you're right, like if it's if you're cow telling to
Speaker 1: the Medvedev corner of the world or the public corner
Speaker 1: of the world, you know, like he always complains about
Speaker 1: shit like that, like it's so dumb. So I guess
Speaker 1: the only other question I have here, well, the biggest
Speaker 1: question that I have about all this is why do
Speaker 1: do you really take them at their word that this
Speaker 1: is what they were striving for, they were striving for uniformity.
Speaker 1: And secondly, is that a different way of Is that
Speaker 1: a way to conceal the other motive, which perhaps I'll
Speaker 1: see if you agree with this is Carlos proofing. Carlos
Speaker 1: Alcarez has won the last two Indian Wells tournaments, and
Speaker 1: Ega has won two of the last three. Is it
Speaker 1: Carlos and Ega proofing? Was that part of the thinking?
Speaker 2: I wouldn't have really gone there, but surely maybe it
Speaker 2: is kind of opening the door for more players to
Speaker 2: have a chance. I think the like honestly, though, you
Speaker 2: want to know what would be good for tennis broadley
Speaker 2: if Carlos won ten in a row here, because guess
Speaker 2: but Nadal winning ten in a row at b in
Speaker 2: Barcelona and in not ten in Row, but you oing
Speaker 2: ten in Monte Carlo, at Barcelona, at Rome. You know,
Speaker 2: I think he only had five in Madrid, but ten
Speaker 2: in Rome. Ten French open titles like that type of
Speaker 2: historical significance matters to like the animals of tennis fandom
Speaker 2: in history. And no, I honestly, if if that's if
Speaker 2: that was part of their thinking, that they want more
Speaker 2: players to have a chance than they're shooting themselves in
Speaker 2: the foot, I thought you were gonna go with more
Speaker 2: like that. Whatever this pavement system is just paid them
Speaker 2: a bunch of money so that they could be the
Speaker 2: paving system of the US Golden the Sunshine Swing, Okay,
Speaker 2: whatever I mean there there is still there's still some differentiation.
Speaker 2: Like Indian Wells is unique in terms of the humidity.
Speaker 2: It's a very dry. It's high desert, right, not not
Speaker 2: high desert. Jashu Trues high desert. Palm Springs is low desert,
Speaker 2: but it's still desert. March and the you know, the
Speaker 2: the conditions do affect the tennis balls. The conditions do
Speaker 2: affect the players. There's often times some very fun and
Speaker 2: interesting wind that has like a little bit to say
Speaker 2: about player performance here, so like, you know, there are
Speaker 2: still some unique nuances about this particular tournament that will
Speaker 2: make it different from Miami. But yeah, I mean it's.
Speaker 1: Uh, yeah, I agree with I mean, I would imagine
Speaker 1: it will be faster, the balls will bounce quite as high,
Speaker 1: but I doubt it will become the you know, I
Speaker 1: doubt it will play like the fastest courts of the world.
Speaker 1: Basically what you're.
Speaker 2: Saying, really, yeah, that's absolutely right. And like I fell
Speaker 2: in love with the Indian wells. I remember the match.
Speaker 2: It was very of Nadal and it was when Zvera
Speaker 2: broke out of nowhere, like he came out of nowhere
Speaker 2: at the Indian at the Australian Open, and it was like, oh,
Speaker 2: this guy's going to be a top three guy. He's
Speaker 2: now number one seed here, so obviously he's you know,
Speaker 2: he's realized his potential almost except for the Slams and
Speaker 2: except for whatever that happened to him this this this
Speaker 2: winter spring. But we'll get to that, I guess. But yeah,
Speaker 2: his match again Standaul was so good and it was
Speaker 2: because you you had lengthy rallies you needed to be
Speaker 2: able to x you know, kind of deploy very fun
Speaker 2: and interesting shots to get your winners home. Because the
Speaker 2: surface was slower, you had to be able to play
Speaker 2: the net, and it just it made for really visually
Speaker 2: exhilarating tennis compared to what you see when it's just
Speaker 2: serve bought stuff. And yeah, I'm I'm one who will
Speaker 2: always kind of champion. The most entertaining watching tennis is
Speaker 2: this the European clastline, not just because you get the
Speaker 2: interstitial shots of just beautiful European cities, but because the
Speaker 2: tennis itself is like movement rallies. You know, it's more war,
Speaker 2: it's more strategy as opposed to just being able to
Speaker 2: out physically your opponent.
Speaker 1: I uh, while the while the Oscars began last night,
Speaker 1: for the first hour of the Oscars, I was a
Speaker 1: sweating the championship in Santiago on clay. I had I
Speaker 1: had Loslow Jerry uh Loslow Jeri from before the quarterfinals
Speaker 1: at plus three eight thirty. So it was a U
Speaker 1: and I kept betting him his his clay numbers were,
Speaker 1: but just to just let play incredible clay player. Who's
Speaker 1: who's not the biggest clay name right the South American
Speaker 1: guys Bias and Navone and all the guys that were
Speaker 1: playing down there, right Sarundelo much bigger names for Clay
Speaker 1: at you very but yet his his more recent numbers
Speaker 1: were amazing. Anyway, I bring that up only to say,
Speaker 1: this is how deep into this we all are. We
Speaker 1: love we love this more than anything in the world.
Speaker 1: So for this thing to happen at any of Welles
Speaker 1: with the service, I'm just I was just like, why
Speaker 1: are you doing this? It makes me so sad. It's like,
Speaker 1: why would you Anyway.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see, I mean yeah, yeah, I mean like
Speaker 2: they you know, if they did this to stop Carlos,
Speaker 2: good luck. He's still the best player in this minstr
Speaker 2: u by margin.
Speaker 1: So I think it's more I think it's more hurtful.
Speaker 1: If if I had to choose, it's more hurtful for
Speaker 1: Ego than it would be for Carlos, just basically because
Speaker 1: as we'll get to with the uh with the lady
Speaker 1: side of things, as we talked about on the radio side,
Speaker 1: my oh my, have the top players taking the proverbial
Speaker 1: half step or full step backwards. So it's it's much
Speaker 1: more democratic. But let's let's start with the let's start
Speaker 1: with the men's side, because I'm I'm gonna put this
Speaker 1: uh this little charger in here, Drew, and you tell
Speaker 1: me if it messes with my audio, because it has before,
Speaker 1: So you tell me if this in any way.
Speaker 2: So far, so far, so good, so far, so yeah,
Speaker 2: sounds good. You sure, okay, Yeah, you're good.
Speaker 1: Okay. So the men's draw is out. See the men's draw, uh, Carlos.
Speaker 1: So let's just do Q one. I'll just I'll give
Speaker 1: names in Q one. Q one, to me off the
Speaker 1: top of my head, looks like the hardest quarter. It
Speaker 1: is number one seed. Sasha Zverev's quarter in that quarter
Speaker 1: is uh Tomas mahach Tiafo and out of form Rune
Speaker 1: Barrettini is in there, Umbar is in there. Sits a
Speaker 1: boss coming off a win in the Middle East is
Speaker 1: in there, and Mapechi Paracard is in there, although we'll
Speaker 1: see if the courts allow him to be effective. But
Speaker 1: that's that's the first court.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Q.
Speaker 1: I'll just go through so called Q two is the
Speaker 1: rude is the rude quarter, which I guess I didn't
Speaker 1: anticipate caspar Rude being the four seed. Yeah, yeah, Rude, Tommy,
Speaker 1: Paul Lehchka, Michelson, Medvedev. Q three is rube Lev. Q
Speaker 1: three is pretty stacked, rube Lev, Nakashima, hatchin Off, Menshic, Shelton, Draper,
Speaker 1: fonseka O j Alias Sim Fritz. Oh, that's a big one.
Speaker 1: And in Q four, Djokovic and Carlitos Scarlitos Akaraz they're
Speaker 1: both in the same quarter. Nick kiriosa potential second round
Speaker 1: match for Joker. Also in there, Demonor dimitrof moon Fis
Speaker 1: and Shapavalla, who's been play very well. Your initial thoughts
Speaker 1: on how those.
Speaker 2: Stat Yes, Q three is the quarter of death. In
Speaker 2: my opinion, you have the most informed players and the
Speaker 2: most kind of like guys that I had sort of
Speaker 2: highlighted and circled as to where are they going to
Speaker 2: land in the draw. They're all in Q three. Q
Speaker 2: four to me is being billed as another potential epic
Speaker 2: head to head between Alkras and Djokovic, which I take
Speaker 2: exception two because if Djokovics makes the quarterfinal then he
Speaker 2: will have surpassed my expectations here by margin. And also
Speaker 2: his path is very, very tricky. He's not he's not
Speaker 2: getting any you know, free free lunch here except maybe
Speaker 2: that curios match in round round two. I don't think
Speaker 2: curios Is has the fitness to go toe to toe.
Speaker 2: Is probably losing the qualifier for being honest.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no to the qualifier, yeah, Novak. Potentially it would
Speaker 1: have to go Kurios.
Speaker 2: Let's run below. Oh yeah, both guys are in form.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then the fourth round it will be Demonur
Speaker 1: or Cots, probably Demonoir.
Speaker 2: Both guys are in form.
Speaker 1: Quarterfinal Alcoraz, dimitrof Alcoraz, Let's just.
Speaker 2: Say Alkraz Yeah, and then.
Speaker 1: If if we were to go after that, it would
Speaker 1: be the Semis in the finals. But and then Carlos
Speaker 1: would be I guess canteen Alas in the round two. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Shapavallave round three, Dimitro for quarter round four, and then
Speaker 1: Djokovic or Demonor and the quarters before. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I think this is a pretty favorable draw for Alkres,
Speaker 2: and I think he comes through Q four pretty pretty cleanly.
Speaker 2: If you get a quarter price for him in Q four,
Speaker 2: my fare is going to be around minus one fifty.
Speaker 2: So I think al Kraz, if it's anything around pick
Speaker 2: them to win. Q four is a good bet. The
Speaker 2: way Djokovic was being priced at Ozzie, I don't know
Speaker 2: if that carries forward. The jig was up in Doha.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw that, but he went
Speaker 2: to Doha for some reason I guess probably sponsorship reasons,
Speaker 2: but he did not really perform there, And I think
Speaker 2: ultimately Djokovic is probably months away from being anywhere close
Speaker 2: to fit enough to make a deep run in a
Speaker 2: tournament like this with this many good players, so Outcras
Speaker 2: I think comes through pretty cleanly in Q four, Q three,
Speaker 2: let's put a pin in and come back to because again,
Speaker 2: that is the quarter of death. In my opinion, Q
Speaker 2: two is the most wide open. If you want to
Speaker 2: take a stab at some one you've seen play, that
Speaker 2: is playing well, that is doing something different, that is
Speaker 2: going to catch people by surprise, it's Q two. Both
Speaker 2: Rude and Medvedev are like laughably far off of their peaks,
Speaker 2: like not even the same players, practically Tommy Paul's hurt,
Speaker 2: Mussetti's no good on hard. They made this court less
Speaker 2: likely that Mussetti will make a run. Yeah, this like
Speaker 2: Q two, if you made me say it, like the
Speaker 2: blind what happens here?
Speaker 1: Before you even said the check.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Lechka versus Feasts and the Q two quarter
Speaker 2: finals probably that's probably where this goes. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: I don't even know if he is going to be
Speaker 2: able to keep keep it together well enough, but he
Speaker 2: at least has He is a super super super soft path.
Speaker 2: Feasts could very clearly clear easily be a quarterfinalist in
Speaker 2: Q two. So Lechka he may, he might make a
Speaker 2: nice price in that quarter. And he played well enough
Speaker 2: to oust uh Outcress in Dubai, right, great performance from him,
Speaker 2: So yeah, he could make a run here. Q one
Speaker 2: is the one that I have the least kind of
Speaker 2: conviction in saying this out loud.
Speaker 3: But is this probably just suppost to lose if you
Speaker 3: go strictly, I mean, if you go strictly on what
Speaker 3: you've seen from these players in the last month, like,
Speaker 3: there's no one there, there's no one playing well as
Speaker 3: well as him.
Speaker 1: Yes, Zverev had a very choppy early part of this season.
Speaker 2: Mrav went to South America for an extended vacation into
Speaker 2: collection and paychecks. My goodness, gracious. His performances in Argentina
Speaker 2: and Brazil were awful, awful. He was laughable, and then
Speaker 2: Acapulco too literal m got him cleanly. In Acapulco, I
Speaker 2: feel like that's a tournament where he usually tries to
Speaker 2: ramp it up. So I was a little surprised that
Speaker 2: he just mailed that one in. So he just collected
Speaker 2: three paychecks. I don't get a sense that he really
Speaker 2: can just flip a switch. And his path actually looks
Speaker 2: pretty dang tough, so I think he's going to get
Speaker 2: I would be a little bit surprised if he makes
Speaker 2: a final here. So I think we're talking about sis
Speaker 2: Paus Jerry for a final and in wells like.
Speaker 1: A semi final.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think those two guys are but that
Speaker 2: I think that's your semi final on the spot in
Speaker 2: the final. Yeah, So, I mean that's wild to say
Speaker 2: it out loud.
Speaker 1: I mean maybe the Titsapas thing is amazing, because like
Speaker 1: before this last tournament, he sucked, right.
Speaker 2: He was awful. Yeah, he was pretty awful.
Speaker 1: It's like, are you you're you're all in?
Speaker 2: I mean the he's he's So he is still a
Speaker 2: very vulnerable favorite because his his his game has been
Speaker 2: solved by a lot of people in tennis, right, like
Speaker 2: like he's not fighting his way through a very tough match.
Speaker 2: If you have the book on him that day, he's
Speaker 2: losing and so I but I was surprised that he
Speaker 2: shipped to the Dubaia. The way that he did it
Speaker 2: at least showed that he, you know, he has he
Speaker 2: has a level right now that's much better than we
Speaker 2: saw in Australia. In Australia, he just looked lost. So
Speaker 2: he's he's shaped up a bit.
Speaker 1: And all the answers against oj Alias seem in the
Speaker 1: finals too.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, he looked amazing. Yeah, he was kind of
Speaker 2: building into a crescendo throughout that tournament. Now, let me
Speaker 2: kind of caveat this. If you're new to tennis handicapping,
Speaker 2: Sometimes when a player who has been either had trouble
Speaker 2: breaking through or been sucking for a while and then
Speaker 2: has a breakthrough the next tournament out is a mission
Speaker 2: accomplished feed up. I don't really feel like doing that again.
Speaker 2: I'm just going to go ahead and mail this one in.
Speaker 1: But what we refer to in football as a letdown spot, a.
Speaker 2: Leftdown spot, is exactly what it is. But I don't
Speaker 2: know that CUSS can to afford that the way his
Speaker 2: ranking is right now, and the way he's sliding with
Speaker 2: his performances end the last year at beginning of this year,
Speaker 2: I think he's got to try to make a run here.
Speaker 2: So match of Q one is going to be Bartini's
Speaker 2: pass in the third round. Barantini's playing great tennis right now.
Speaker 2: He doesn't look to have much of a challenge in
Speaker 2: round two, So I think both Passin and Bartini are
Speaker 2: going to be, you know, right there in the third round,
Speaker 2: and that'll be a fun head to head. I gotta
Speaker 2: put you on the spot now though, Yes, sir, how
Speaker 2: do we feel about mister Jao Fonseka.
Speaker 1: Well, so I was just about to say we have
Speaker 1: if I am to right now say the most amazing
Speaker 1: round two matches on paper on the women's and the
Speaker 1: men's side. The men's side is clearly the potential round
Speaker 1: two matchup between Jack Draper and Jaufon Senca.
Speaker 2: God, that's gonna be so good.
Speaker 4: That is.
Speaker 1: That is by the way, when we get to the
Speaker 1: women Benchic might play and this Amova in round two
Speaker 1: that would be the equivalent to me on the women's side.
Speaker 1: But that is I mean, this is like you said,
Speaker 1: ask I thought Q one was the worst. You're probably right.
Speaker 1: Q three is probably a little harder with Fritz. Rube
Speaker 1: Lev has been great. Fonseka is the uh the guy
Speaker 1: coming up on tour who we all kind of know
Speaker 1: about now if you've been following tennis, he'll be new
Speaker 1: to the casual fan, but most no Draper was that
Speaker 1: guy maybe last year. Shelton is out of form. So
Speaker 1: he's the one guy where I'm sort of like I,
Speaker 1: you know, he could always rise up, but he has
Speaker 1: not been playing. I always think about you, by the way,
Speaker 1: when I think about I'm always.
Speaker 2: Fritz Man Fritz.
Speaker 1: He won this tournament against rofen Adahl. Who could forget
Speaker 1: that injury? Uh flippero that morning?
Speaker 2: Wild wild wild, I I.
Speaker 1: Think, jeah, let's put it this way. I we don't
Speaker 1: have odds. We were doing this early enough that we
Speaker 1: don't have odds yet. What odds would you need to play?
Speaker 1: Fun's sake, I'll just throw it right back at you,
Speaker 1: which is say again, because he got cut off there.
Speaker 2: I didn't say a number, but it's a big number.
Speaker 1: It's a big number. It's a big number, you know,
Speaker 1: honestly for any of these guys, like, what's the short
Speaker 1: shot here, Fritz would be the short shot at what
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I could argue that Draper or Rublove should be the
Speaker 2: short shot or Fritz any of those guys. I mean,
Speaker 2: Fritz is your top seeded player. This is his own tournament. Hey, yeah,
Speaker 2: so Fritz Fritz really like there's been years in the
Speaker 2: past where he has come into this tournament playing like
Speaker 2: dog's breath and he has been like a revelation all
Speaker 2: of a sudden. I don't know what it is about
Speaker 2: being at or near home. That just kind of helps
Speaker 2: kind of keep his focus a little bit Sharper. But
Speaker 2: he's got a tough draw here too, Like Bias as
Speaker 2: his opening match, Biaz Fritz, that's not easy, Biaz. Just
Speaker 2: he's playing. Yeah, he's playing great right now.
Speaker 1: He's a pain in the ass, is what.
Speaker 2: He's a pain in the ass. He's a pain in
Speaker 2: the ass. And then and then he's probably getting tableow.
Speaker 2: I guess round three that's an easy one. But but
Speaker 2: jal Fonseka man buried this poor kid in this draw.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's gonna he's gonna get firmly, no problem.
Speaker 2: But then Draper round two is a nightmare. Opponent for
Speaker 2: a guy like fan Seka. I mean, like Draper is
Speaker 2: just kind of crusted to like true blue top six
Speaker 2: pro kind of level. And if fan Seka can take
Speaker 2: him down head to head, that will be like, oh, oh,
Speaker 2: you thought fan Seka arrived winning Buenos Aires. No, he
Speaker 2: arrived just beating Jack Draper in that kind of a
Speaker 2: match Like that will be off the top of my head.
Speaker 2: Fans Sake is going to be at three four to
Speaker 2: one in that head to head against Draper and then
Speaker 2: against Felix Augeli Assim, who is who's in form. Fan
Speaker 2: Sak is going to be two fifty probably against Fritz
Speaker 2: three to one against uh rube Lev in the quarterfinal. This, yes,
Speaker 2: the Monday to the line rollover is going to be
Speaker 2: one hundred to one plus. Yeah, that's what we're talking about. Actually,
Speaker 2: let me let me do the math real quick since
Speaker 2: you ask, but but yeah, you tell you tell me
Speaker 2: like I don't think I doubt you were surprised that
Speaker 2: he was won and done in Buenos Aires after winning
Speaker 2: I went and done in real after winning Buenos Aires.
Speaker 2: But how much of that did you watch? And what
Speaker 2: is your current kind of read on his arc?
Speaker 1: First of all. I looked up and he was down
Speaker 1: five love. I was like, what was happening? He's even here? Yeah.
Speaker 1: I still think that he is going to be a
Speaker 1: top ten player, like if if Andreva is you know,
Speaker 1: Andreva is already in the top ten.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but like like over what time, ark.
Speaker 1: That's a great question, it's gonna it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: little bit. I think this time next year he'll be
Speaker 1: top twenty, and I think this time the year after
Speaker 1: he'll be top ten. How about that for a timeline
Speaker 1: two years top ten?
Speaker 2: I dig that. My money line rollover for him to
Speaker 2: win this quarter is triple digits.
Speaker 1: But to win the quarter, to win a quarter, yeah,
Speaker 1: well think about it. There's there's twenty four players in
Speaker 1: a quarter because we have buys there at any and welles,
Speaker 1: so it's not one hundred and twenty eight players. So
Speaker 1: it's twenty four players in a quarter. Here are ten
Speaker 1: of those twenty four all in this one quarter.
Speaker 2: They're all good. Yeah, yeah, Ruby.
Speaker 1: Lev, Nakashima, hatching Off, Menshik Shelton, Draper, fonseka O j
Speaker 1: Alias Siemen Fritz. I mean that's.
Speaker 2: Brutal, brutal, It's absolutely brutal.
Speaker 1: You agree with that fun take a timeline though, you
Speaker 1: think that's about right?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would put I guess, uh, you know,
Speaker 2: I would. I would kind of pencil in that he
Speaker 2: does something cool in Europe on clay. Okay, right, let's
Speaker 2: give him Munich or Bru deepche yes, stute gart Oh
Speaker 2: yeah sure, sure, yeah, well we'll give him. We'll give
Speaker 2: him a clay title on the way to the French Open.
Speaker 2: And I think at the French Open he makes a
Speaker 2: run to like the quarterfinals, assuming he doesn't get a
Speaker 2: draw like this and uh, and then US Open, he's
Speaker 2: probably out of gas. He's probably like probably played too
Speaker 2: much for those young legs and people are expecting him
Speaker 2: to break out and he's a little underwhelming at that point.
Speaker 2: But next year's US so I feel like, if you
Speaker 2: know next year's French Open, USO, I feel like those
Speaker 2: are the two uh those that's where you circle him
Speaker 2: and you watch every one of those matches, And you
Speaker 2: should watch every one of these matches, like if when
Speaker 2: you're there, gosh, I hope, man, do I hope for you?
Speaker 2: On Friday it's bottom half of men's draw man, Like
Speaker 2: these are these are like those those Friday matches are
Speaker 2: going to be sick. There's going to be some sick ones.
Speaker 1: Have you ever been to any Wills, but have you
Speaker 1: been to this tournament.
Speaker 2: I've never been to the tournament, but I've been to
Speaker 2: the area fifty times. I love it out there.
Speaker 1: It is, I mean, as great as going. I've never
Speaker 1: been to any Slam but the US Open, which is
Speaker 1: obviously its own awesome bucket list item at night, but
Speaker 1: it's the There's something about this tournament like it is
Speaker 1: just perfect in every way. There's also that like area
Speaker 1: that field where all the players are working out right
Speaker 1: by the court. You can like just sort of hat
Speaker 1: It feels like you're hanging out with them.
Speaker 2: Almost you got any while you're on this, because I
Speaker 2: don't have anything else on the men's other than just
Speaker 2: Carclos is going to win. Q four Coast is going
Speaker 2: to win. You got any tips for fans of the
Speaker 2: megapod who are going to be out there to make
Speaker 2: the most of their experience.
Speaker 1: Uh, yeah, don't if you're coming from Vegas, don't drive
Speaker 1: through the desert. That's why I tried that. I tried
Speaker 1: that a couple of years. Well, if you have an
Speaker 1: electric car, thirty.
Speaker 2: Five dollars Southwest flights the Palm Springs the problem.
Speaker 1: But the problem is from Vegas. Wait does Southwest go
Speaker 1: direct from here?
Speaker 2: Southwest goes from Vegas to Palm Springs for sure. Then
Speaker 2: there's like thirty five minute flight. I said, thirty five dollars, men,
Speaker 2: thirty five thirty five minute flights? It's so fast?
Speaker 1: Did I botch this?
Speaker 5: Am?
Speaker 1: I literally you missed this on Southwest.
Speaker 2: I've definitely died it in the past. Bro.
Speaker 1: You know how, I'm flying there a fly.
Speaker 2: Frontier.
Speaker 1: No, I'm flying on a normal carrier. But I'm not flying.
Speaker 1: I'm literally flying to Phoenix to get there. I'm leaving
Speaker 1: after the show Friday, and I'm just I'm like, you
Speaker 1: know what, I don't care if it takes four hours.
Speaker 1: I'll be so happy when I get there well in
Speaker 1: time for the night matches can't wait. But if you're
Speaker 1: telling me Southwest as a direct, I am the biggest
Speaker 1: idiot going because I didn't even not somehow that that
Speaker 1: like escaped me to look at Southwest so dumb.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there are there's two nouns ups today. It is,
Speaker 2: it's not it's not a thirty five minute flight. It's
Speaker 2: an hour. It's an hour flight.
Speaker 1: But what times on a flight?
Speaker 2: What times on a flight you can depart at one
Speaker 2: fifty seven, your choice.
Speaker 1: It's so dumb. I cannot believe how dumb I this is.
Speaker 1: This is one of the worst revelations. So I botch that.
Speaker 1: I'll do better.
Speaker 2: Next.
Speaker 1: The advice there is merch takes can take about an
Speaker 1: hour and a half. The lines are so long.
Speaker 2: For the first thing you do, you go directly there.
Speaker 1: You almost like, I know, somebody a listener to a
Speaker 1: numbers game, Joe C who lives in southern California, he
Speaker 1: just went today because it was only an hour and
Speaker 1: a half drive for him to just buy merch. So
Speaker 1: that that's my first advice, is like figure that out.
Speaker 1: And the other thing is I have stadium one tickets,
Speaker 1: but that might not be the optimal way to play
Speaker 1: it either. You're almost as good just getting a whole
Speaker 1: what a field passes, the round round pass, that's right,
Speaker 1: and and just there's so much happening this first week,
Speaker 1: and this would be the week to go, Like if
Speaker 1: you go to the if you're into the semis and
Speaker 1: the finals, that's obviously a great thing, but that's not
Speaker 1: kind of why I'm there. I want to see as
Speaker 1: many matches as possible.
Speaker 2: So got it? Got it? I dig it, I dig it. Yeah. So,
Speaker 2: uh we agree on Jerry Q two price. That's gonna
Speaker 2: be like three four to one. I think you're gonna
Speaker 2: get a nice one there.
Speaker 1: Let me let me ever spell that for folks, because
Speaker 1: I always think everybody as into this as we are.
Speaker 1: Yuri leha j i or Uri Yeah, Yuri la hechka
Speaker 1: l e h e c k a is his name.
Speaker 1: He is on the He's in Q two along that
Speaker 1: which is which is rudees. I guess quarter, even though
Speaker 1: like I don't, I don't see him being the best
Speaker 1: player of that quarter. But anyway, uh that I agree
Speaker 1: with completely with you on. I agree that Q three
Speaker 1: is the hardest Q one probably right after that, And
Speaker 1: I also agree with you though generally speaking, if if
Speaker 1: I come to you from the future and I say
Speaker 1: Carlos didn't win this, who won it?
Speaker 2: I guess scam Norri No, not scam noy It's gonna
Speaker 2: be it's uh, I mean who probably like who won
Speaker 2: this tournament? Who won? You have the most fraudulent masters
Speaker 2: one thousand titles of all time uh Nicola, spacialist Vili Yes,
Speaker 2: thee the Georgian uh. I think he's still playing. I
Speaker 2: think he was still playing qualifying today. He was today.
Speaker 2: He might have beat someone in qualifying today.
Speaker 1: I saw him pop up in a tournament a couple
Speaker 1: of tournaments ago out of the blue. I was like,
Speaker 1: holy shit, he's still playing.
Speaker 2: Yes, he beat oh Man, he beat you Banks today,
Speaker 2: oh Pu and straight set six two sixty four, poor
Speaker 2: you Banks. That remember when he won that Wimbledon fourth quarter?
Speaker 2: Well what else right million years ago? You want to
Speaker 2: guess without looking what year LEAs? His current rank is
Speaker 2: among active players who are not suspended for the year,
Speaker 2: his year ELO, his yearly yearly ELO. To this point
Speaker 2: he is ten and three. He has a headhead win
Speaker 2: against Alcrez. What is his year to the date ELO
Speaker 2: rank nineteenth fourth, He is fourth right now. I think
Speaker 2: a lot of that is bulloied by that that Alcaz win.
Speaker 1: But many players what is his ranking in the world
Speaker 1: by the way, four twenty four.
Speaker 2: Yeah, his peak rank was twenty two. He's a twenty
Speaker 2: three year old, so he's very much coming on. But
Speaker 2: his run in Brisbane was excellent. He took out Rune, Nishioka,
Speaker 2: Jari Demotrov, Opelka on his way to a title. Now
Speaker 2: granted two of those were by retirement, but we don't
Speaker 2: count those. He got He got up to and defeated
Speaker 2: by Djokovic at the Australian Open wins. He got beat
Speaker 2: by her catch in Rotterdam Doha. He made it all
Speaker 2: the way to being defeated by Draper in the semi finals,
Speaker 2: and then Ugo and Bert got him in Dubai. Okay,
Speaker 2: so I make I made a misstatement a couple times.
Speaker 2: Then I don't remember who beat who beat Alcres and
Speaker 2: dohof it wasn't Jerry it the other check it was one.
Speaker 1: Of these guys I can tell you.
Speaker 2: Hold on now, I gotta look. You know who.
Speaker 1: I always you know who. Whenever I think of Lahedge guy,
Speaker 1: always think of beat him Legga beat him.
Speaker 2: Oh he did? Yeah, ok yeah, oh sorry yeah sorry sorry,
Speaker 2: yes yeah, that was a really really really impressive performance
Speaker 2: by him. So yeah, that's that's why is your That's
Speaker 2: why is your Eloisa anyway.
Speaker 1: And Mensick, by the way, are the two players that
Speaker 1: I think of in tandem. For some reason, they kind
Speaker 1: of came up, yeah, sort of at the same time,
Speaker 1: and I've I've won a lot betting on both of them,
Speaker 1: so I always feel like they're alive. Just in terms
Speaker 1: of like raw data before we move on from the
Speaker 1: men's these are just like you know, twelve months and
Speaker 1: six month numbers. Carlitos is number one. I have Joker
Speaker 1: at number two, Sasha Zverev three, Taylor Fritz four, Medvedev
Speaker 1: is five. Oh no, Fansek is in there. Pardon me,
Speaker 1: pardon me, Fanseka is in there. But basically it's it's
Speaker 1: no real surprise, like Fantaka might surprise people, but it's
Speaker 1: nothing really terribly surprising. Menschik and Mahach and Lea are
Speaker 1: the three names that are probably going to surprise the
Speaker 1: most people who I have towards the top.
Speaker 2: They're playing well. I think of the two players that
Speaker 2: I think of coming up in tandemar Mahach and Sinyakoba
Speaker 2: of course, because they were they were dating and playing
Speaker 2: mixed doubles and they won the Olympic gold medal together
Speaker 2: despite having just recently broke up, which was just a
Speaker 2: dramatically fun story last year. So if if Oprez does
Speaker 2: not win, I am going to say my most likely
Speaker 2: winner is probably Fritz, and it's because of the home
Speaker 2: home court advantage for him. My most likely winner from
Speaker 2: the top is Jiri and then second.
Speaker 1: And sit suppose that that is probably the most surprising
Speaker 1: thing you said for me. Not that I don't understand it,
Speaker 1: but I did not expect you to say that he.
Speaker 2: Could lose his first matcher. He could go to the final. Right,
Speaker 2: either one not neither would surprise me. You played that
Speaker 2: well at Dubai.
Speaker 1: And you say Fritz, but you're not making You're not
Speaker 1: making any bets on him.
Speaker 2: No way. Q three is way too tough, way too tough.
Speaker 2: If you want to bet Fritz, sit on your hands
Speaker 2: until he plays Draper probably in round four. H that'll
Speaker 2: be a really really really close match.
Speaker 1: Any and and so, Yeah, but you're I would have
Speaker 1: thought you would have said that be round four. I
Speaker 1: don't know about Barattini on this what the purpose.
Speaker 2: Is, Yeah, exactly, I really can't say. And I think
Speaker 2: Bartini Barattini sys pass winner probably wins Q one.
Speaker 1: What number would you I mean, Carlitos, is that what's
Speaker 1: the way to bet Carlitos for you?
Speaker 2: I think you just played that out right, and yeah,
Speaker 2: kick your feet up for two.
Speaker 6: Weeks, I don't know, kick your feet up and say,
Speaker 6: have had it, kid?
Speaker 2: Yeah, go get him, Go get him, big guy.
Speaker 1: We'll move on to the women. Last thing, though, you
Speaker 1: fan seka most most exciting men's tennis prospects since carl
Speaker 1: was correct.
Speaker 2: Without question. Yeah, yes, I didn't think we were going
Speaker 2: to get another Carlitos, either in the near term, even remotely.
Speaker 2: And for this to happen is a is a gift.
Speaker 1: Yeah for me. By the way, Carlitos and Ego will
Speaker 1: always be the tandem because it was so ahead of
Speaker 1: the curve on both and I just remember watching, you know,
Speaker 1: Carlos playing these night clay matches when he was like
Speaker 1: sixteen or maybe even fifteen, somewhere in South America, dead
Speaker 1: a knight, and you just like it was just it's
Speaker 1: an amazing time. But you're right, I didn't think we'd
Speaker 1: get another Maybe we will, all right, to the ladies,
Speaker 1: to the lady side. I haven't seen a bracket in
Speaker 1: my face since we've been doing this, but maybe you have.
Speaker 1: But I will give you the sort of we'll do
Speaker 1: the quarter by well, I don't have the quarter by
Speaker 1: quarter but what I do have is I can give
Speaker 1: you Ego's path. How about that we can start there.
Speaker 2: Sure, hit it.
Speaker 1: Ego's path is.
Speaker 2: Actually before we get there, let me just ask you
Speaker 2: the most important question.
Speaker 1: Oh please? Yes?
Speaker 2: Is she on the same side at the draw as Ostapenko?
Speaker 1: She is not?
Speaker 2: The title so ships is a good time, good poe ye,
Speaker 2: good pod, good pot. Another title for miss miss Sante.
Speaker 1: For those who don't know what Drew was talking about,
Speaker 1: is five hundred or better against every player on the
Speaker 1: w t A Tour except for one, and her name
Speaker 1: is Elena Ostapenko.
Speaker 2: Who won the It's a close head to head though, right, it.
Speaker 1: Is a very close head to head. It's oh and five?
Speaker 2: How is that possible?
Speaker 1: And they keep getting worse by the way.
Speaker 2: It feels like, how is that possible?
Speaker 1: I don't know that hamburger is in her head.
Speaker 2: It's got to be. It's it's it is, Yes, it is.
Speaker 2: H It's kind of concerning that there is some kind
Speaker 2: of mental there. There is there is it to me,
Speaker 2: at least a whiff of like a small mental distraction
Speaker 2: can really de really for some for some reason that
Speaker 2: I can't really quantify.
Speaker 1: I agree with you Yeah.
Speaker 2: For quality of play at the Australian Open, and we
Speaker 2: talked about this before, was so phenomenally good through the
Speaker 2: first four matches, including just an absolute destruction of Emma Navarrow.
Speaker 2: I thought, I thought, oh, so this is the year
Speaker 2: that Eager just wins every tournament. But there's the weird
Speaker 2: double bounce that didn't mean anything. It gets all of
Speaker 2: this attention and it to me, it felt like that
Speaker 2: was a bit of a handicap for her against Keys.
Speaker 2: And I don't want to take away from what Keys did,
Speaker 2: because that run was maybe the most impressive title first
Speaker 2: title run we've ever seen, and yet she had a
Speaker 2: match point. Yeah, she had a match point, but it
Speaker 2: felt like she didn't feel like the same player that
Speaker 2: we saw just absolutely dismantled Navarro.
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm so glad you and I have
Speaker 1: been doing these tennis pots for a while now, and
Speaker 1: by the way, I can't thank you enough it's been
Speaker 1: I enjoy these as much as I enjoy anything that
Speaker 1: I do, and I'm so thankful that I brought up
Speaker 1: in sort of a Columbo in sort of a Columbo
Speaker 1: kind of way where you're just leaving like a seventies
Speaker 1: Detective Show, where like his hallmark was right before he
Speaker 1: would leave, he would be like, oh yeah, one more thing.
Speaker 1: I kind of did that with Madison Keys before the
Speaker 1: Australian Open, which I always I always go back to
Speaker 1: what was at Wimbledon last year? Was it where we
Speaker 1: none of us mentioned Marketa Vondersilva, because why would we.
Speaker 2: Why would we have.
Speaker 5: Keys?
Speaker 2: I mean, just to pull the curtain back for the listeners.
Speaker 2: We don't. We don't pref for this. There's only one
Speaker 2: document and it says men women don't forget to mention
Speaker 2: Madison Keys.
Speaker 1: I mean this, if if this was the same surface
Speaker 1: that we know and love, She's not a factor here, right.
Speaker 2: No, No, I don't think. I don't even remember the
Speaker 2: most without looking. What do you think the deepest run
Speaker 2: she's ever made it here? For if she's made a
Speaker 2: quarter final on here in the past, I'm forgetting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd be shocked if she did.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will look it up while we set the
Speaker 2: table here. But but yeah, egas your two seed, what
Speaker 2: do you think of her path?
Speaker 1: EA's your two seed? Your path for ego would be uh,
Speaker 1: Caroline Garcia, who's been terrible in round two. That's a win,
Speaker 1: but then good god, uh they always tricky on Jibur
Speaker 1: in round three, Carolina Muhova in round four, Good god, uh,
Speaker 1: never fun to play. Both of those players are spin masters.
Speaker 1: Quarterfinal would be anyone between Jangshen win, Paula Badosa or
Speaker 1: Linden Oskova. Semis would be Rebakkin or Pagoula. Final would
Speaker 1: be Sabalanca Golfer Ostapenko. I had to throw just to
Speaker 1: put it in there. Could you imagine an Egosta Panco
Speaker 1: Indian in Wells final. I'd be like, oh shit.
Speaker 2: Hey, I'll tell you what, man, when she finally beats her,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have Betty that day. Yes, i will have
Speaker 2: Bettyga that day. I'll be honest. We finally got it,
Speaker 2: Martin Galing this ahead day till till she finally wins.
Speaker 2: But yeah, to close the loop with you on keys,
Speaker 2: you know why we don't ever remember making a deep
Speaker 2: run here, It's because she never asked. She has made
Speaker 2: one quarterfinal here in her career. First time she played
Speaker 2: this event, by the way, twenty eleven, and she has
Speaker 2: only ever made one quarterfinal run. And you know how
Speaker 2: we don't remember that quarterfinal Gil, It's because Egostiante beat
Speaker 2: her six one, six zero, and it was a forty
Speaker 2: three minute match. Oh sorry, fifty six minute match, my dad.
Speaker 2: What year was that, twenty twenty two? You got her
Speaker 2: six one, six zero. So aside from that, she has
Speaker 2: never made a quarterfinal. She's only made round of sixteen twice. Like,
Speaker 2: this is a startlingly poor venue for her for some reason.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, she loves the fast courts, right, this
Speaker 1: is you know this, this would not be her surface.
Speaker 2: She she likes, she loves the Major's the fifth Major.
Speaker 2: Why doesn't she play better here?
Speaker 1: She does?
Speaker 6: I don't know, man, Yeah, that's a good place.
Speaker 2: She's made semi finals at the French Open, right.
Speaker 1: I believe, so semifinals at the French I mean, obviously.
Speaker 2: It's it's weird. It's weird that she's said that she's
Speaker 2: she's a literal uh uh, you know, ghost here despite
Speaker 2: her unbelievable pedigree at the at the slam level.
Speaker 1: Okay, I am now going to I'm going to.
Speaker 2: Reach twenty eighteen semi finals. She lost to Slone Stephens
Speaker 2: at the semi finals of the Rolling Girls. But yeah,
Speaker 2: carry on.
Speaker 1: How good was Sloan Stephens back then? Twenty seventeen US Stephens.
Speaker 2: Got her twice. Yeah, she got her in the finals
Speaker 2: of the US and the semis of the French.
Speaker 1: So Sloan Stevens was on the cusp of winning two
Speaker 1: out of three majors at that point, because didn't she
Speaker 1: win the US Open in twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2: I believe she did.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so here, Yeah she's not she's not playing
Speaker 1: well these days, Sloan. That is okay. So this is
Speaker 1: I'm reading this off the bracket now, so I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna do this sort of off the cuff here. But
Speaker 1: and I assume this is Q one, which is the
Speaker 1: Arena Sabeleaca Arena Saboleaca. Who was just here in Vegas,
Speaker 1: by the way, and ate it carbone about two hundred
Speaker 1: yards away from me?
Speaker 2: You're kidding?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't see.
Speaker 2: She get the Did she get the veil parmesan?
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 1: She was in the back room though, where I had
Speaker 1: just eaten two nights before. I was. I wasn't so
Speaker 1: interested in her. I was interested to see when Osaka
Speaker 1: wasn't down. But no one, no one seemed to see her.
Speaker 1: She probably went back by the way. Did you know
Speaker 1: what did did yesterday? Jesse Bagoula, who won the won
Speaker 1: in Austin. She waited after her singles championship for the
Speaker 1: doubles championship to end, and she invited U Yuan Yue
Speaker 1: and two other players or Blinkova was there and I
Speaker 1: think there was was it Chui Jiang zhang Shui was
Speaker 1: also there that she she took them all on her
Speaker 1: private jet.
Speaker 2: Very cool.
Speaker 1: Listeners may not know that Jesse Bogola is a billionaires
Speaker 1: in addition to being one of the top five players
Speaker 1: in tennis. And she invited there on their private jet.
Speaker 1: And Yuan Yue was like, she saved me nine hours
Speaker 1: of driving she was gonna drive.
Speaker 2: Wow, I like, you know what we call that in
Speaker 2: the biz, gil Yeah, good karma, good karma, that is
Speaker 2: good karma. Yue is playing in round one of this tournament.
Speaker 2: She of course was the Austin champion last year, but
Speaker 2: out in round one this year and not in very
Speaker 2: good form. Now she could use she could have used yes,
Speaker 2: she could use the the the charity.
Speaker 6: There, okay, so yeah, I mean here's Q one.
Speaker 1: By the way, this is an eight million dollars eight
Speaker 1: in the purse is eight point nine million here uh
Speaker 1: Q one, Sabolenka, I'll just give you names here in Alexandrova.
Speaker 1: I won't even say ha daj Maya. She hasn't been
Speaker 1: played very well. Uh Casa Kina. We just mentioned Sloan.
Speaker 2: Stevens, Sloan Stephens, my goodness.
Speaker 1: Stephen's Kennon in a battle of past slam champs. Uh, Simsonova,
Speaker 1: Leila Fernandez, cruder Matova and Paulini among those in Q one.
Speaker 1: That's arena, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is a very weak quarter. And uh,
Speaker 2: by the way, eight million dollars person you want, we
Speaker 2: call that in the biz a good month. Just kidding,
Speaker 2: just kidding. Uh No, q Q one, Q one is
Speaker 2: very weak. Uh and if sabal Inka does not come through,
Speaker 2: then we move her alarm level from like deaf con
Speaker 2: three is are like one at least two.
Speaker 1: Let me think. Let me thank you for saying, because
Speaker 1: as an eager guy, I feel like she gets all
Speaker 1: the she doesn't get the grace right the other everybody's
Speaker 1: sort of like.
Speaker 6: Well, you know.
Speaker 2: What if she just lost to somebody who's nine hundred
Speaker 2: in the world.
Speaker 6: Whatever, that's right. I agree with you.
Speaker 1: That is an easy pasy uh quarter. For sure. By
Speaker 1: the way, the winner doesn't get the eight point nine,
Speaker 1: it gets one point one two four, okay. Q two. Paulini,
Speaker 1: also in that quarter is not at her top as
Speaker 1: she was a year ago either.
Speaker 2: Palini looks like a full two steps backwards to yeah,
Speaker 2: like not close.
Speaker 1: Yes, but but this is less surprising than the run
Speaker 1: to greatness was itself right Like, I couldn't I never
Speaker 1: saw that coming.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Paulini actually threw me a bit off
Speaker 2: when she hammered benchage at the United Cup. I was like, oh, wow,
Speaker 2: she's really carrying this form into twenty twenty five. Good
Speaker 2: on her, and then it is been just the tires
Speaker 2: have fallen off and she is fully exposed right now.
Speaker 2: This is not she loses to Fernandez. I think she
Speaker 2: should Probably she could be a dog.
Speaker 1: She could be a dog.
Speaker 2: She could be that wouldn't shocked me.
Speaker 1: I would love to see that much, all right. Q two.
Speaker 1: Uh speaking of out of form, Coco golf man, dude,
Speaker 1: Cocoa golf Uh, soakery, who is not scaring any Oh,
Speaker 1: first of all, Emma rod o'conno who she could meet
Speaker 1: in the second round soccery. Also in this she is
Speaker 1: a shell of her former self.
Speaker 2: She was a finalist last year. She at this tournament,
Speaker 2: she is defending, she's defending major points, Amanda, who could
Speaker 2: take off these These are probably the lastest soaker.
Speaker 6: He's pointing, Oh yeah, I think you're right.
Speaker 1: It's finally come to an end. A Nissimova, who could
Speaker 1: take on Belinda Benchit in round two, which would be
Speaker 1: the most amazing round two match of them all. Schneider
Speaker 1: is in here, Navarro, Vekic, Mertens and keys, who dang really.
Speaker 2: Good, really really really good? Yeah? Really?
Speaker 1: And by the way, who's who's like, you know, she's
Speaker 1: playing great?
Speaker 2: She should have been Paula, I mean Navarro? And uh
Speaker 2: what was out of the tournament that was going on?
Speaker 1: Uhrita, Rita? Yeah?
Speaker 2: So did you know that?
Speaker 1: That was?
Speaker 2: It? A city in Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula that's
Speaker 2: not on the ocean. Why in the world would they
Speaker 2: send them to non coastal city and the Yukatampa peninsula.
Speaker 2: My goodness, gracious, yes, we're gonna send you to inland
Speaker 2: the Yucatan. What okay, all right, let's do it. But yeah,
Speaker 2: Navarro fine her final she was spectacular double bagel in
Speaker 2: the final for her.
Speaker 1: Double bagel against Yeah.
Speaker 2: Wow, that's rare.
Speaker 1: It's ra You're not supposed to do that.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I think Navarro and Keys come through
Speaker 2: on the bottom, even though we did spend all of
Speaker 2: that time kind of waxing about how Keys is not
Speaker 2: great here. But to me that means makes her a little,
Speaker 2: maybe a little vulnerable and fourth round or quarterfinal.
Speaker 1: Round of sixteen Navarro Keys.
Speaker 2: Round of sixteen Keys is probably a little little vulnerable. Navarro,
Speaker 2: maybe Keys comes through and is vulnerable to either Benches,
Speaker 2: Anisimova or Golf. I think the I think the move here,
Speaker 2: and I'm going to say this with somewhat some caution.
Speaker 2: I guess what you're I think, Yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 1: You are anxiously waiting to find out what Emmaradu Kano's
Speaker 1: price will be against Cocoa Golf in round two.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good one. That is a good one.
Speaker 2: I honestly, I don't know that she's so. I guess
Speaker 2: we should talk about real quick. Gough goff is she's
Speaker 2: having these mental breakdowns on the court of like frustration
Speaker 2: and and like like is being is very down on herself.
Speaker 2: You know, the body language experts are like, oh, like
Speaker 2: as soon as things go sideways, it gets really bad
Speaker 2: for her on court. I don't understand what's going on.
Speaker 2: I don't know if she snaps out of it. It
Speaker 2: plays more like what we saw at the United Cup
Speaker 2: in January, which was very sublime tennis for her. But uh,
Speaker 2: lately it has not been good for her, which.
Speaker 1: I agree with, which I agree with you. You said
Speaker 1: on the radio side you thought she was past that,
Speaker 1: and she's not.
Speaker 2: I no doubt. Yeah, this is again like big mental
Speaker 2: set backwards for her. My gut here is Gough probably
Speaker 2: gets by a rod of Kanu, but it's a war.
Speaker 2: She probably gets by a Sacchary or Dane Loovich and
Speaker 2: it's probably a war. And then, uh, I think the
Speaker 2: I think the move here is Benchies rollover. I think
Speaker 2: Ben over Marie over Anasamova, over Schneider, over Golf, over
Speaker 2: Keys or Navarro. I think that gets you into like
Speaker 2: the eighty to one range for Benchic to win this quarter.
Speaker 2: And I think that's the I think that's the move
Speaker 2: right now. I see Benchic as a she's playing top five.
Speaker 1: For me, I have her drew as in terms of
Speaker 1: the raw data on hard courts number two to Ego
Speaker 1: number two, number two. Okay, So now she only played
Speaker 1: fifteen matches, so it is a small sample size. But
Speaker 1: still that's what I have here last six months, I
Speaker 1: have so far three do I have it wrong at
Speaker 1: twelve and three? But it is fifteen matches either way,
Speaker 1: but I have her, I have her number two, I
Speaker 1: have Sabalanca third.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: So, by the way, I mean, Naomi's numbers are great.
Speaker 1: She's up there, so is Pagoula, so is Andreva, re'bakan
Speaker 1: is seventh, and then it's golf and noskovin keys. But
Speaker 1: I mean that's that's a that's a great top ten
Speaker 1: of data. It's really good with jang shin win, you know.
Speaker 1: And there's Amva right on the outside of Navarro on
Speaker 1: the outside looking in of that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a good quarter quarter one, stink Sclare
Speaker 2: two is awesome.
Speaker 1: Yes, agree, quarter quarter three that is Rebakkena's quarter. Rebakkina
Speaker 1: will play the winner of moskovin Lamens in round two.
Speaker 1: Who else is in here? Katie Bolter, we haven't seen
Speaker 1: a lot of is in there.
Speaker 2: Surprised by her ranking honestly issues the SI.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Towson is in there, but there's there's Osaka and
Speaker 1: there's Andreva. Oh boy, so Andreva and Osaka could meet
Speaker 1: in round three.
Speaker 2: It feels like that's happening too. Andreva tousand would be good.
Speaker 2: We just saw that, although I'd rather see Osaka Andreva
Speaker 2: the conditions freaking yeah.
Speaker 1: Freaking colins in there on the other side of that quarter.
Speaker 1: Fiddelina and Austa Panco as well as pulaas on the
Speaker 1: other side of that quarter.
Speaker 2: Okay, Oh so we got a correction. Retraction is on
Speaker 2: the same side of the draw. She's just not in
Speaker 2: the quarter, same quarter. Pinko is not coming through this. Sorry,
Speaker 2: no way, no ways coming through this. Q three is yes,
Speaker 2: jokes about this, and she's she's in She's in Q three,
Speaker 2: So they would be in the semi finals, but they
Speaker 2: all meet in my final.
Speaker 1: Yes, what is the initial So wait, so the initial
Speaker 1: reports that came out must have been wrong. Maybe that's
Speaker 1: why put.
Speaker 6: Out the bracket.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that must have been.
Speaker 1: So she is on the same half.
Speaker 2: Oh no, well they wouldn't need to the semifinals and
Speaker 2: they're not meeting in the semi finals because Panko is
Speaker 2: not coming through here, no way, he said, was probably
Speaker 2: taking her out in the third round to Goula si
Speaker 2: poolas section here way softer. She's almost certainly a quarter
Speaker 2: finalist in Q three.
Speaker 6: The top half, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the top half, the top section section five here
Speaker 2: the top half of Q three. This is this is
Speaker 2: something else.
Speaker 5: Man.
Speaker 2: I was going to use a lot of the women's
Speaker 2: pod on this recording to to just class on the
Speaker 2: fact that Andreva is rating as one of the best,
Speaker 2: if not the best women's player going right now. But
Speaker 2: this is tough, man. I don't really fancy her second
Speaker 2: round being a difficult one, although look at that flash
Speaker 2: from the past mission for Covidova's back from eternity leave.
Speaker 2: I would just like her to get some match fitness
Speaker 2: under her so she can be fun to talk about
Speaker 2: for Wimbledon. I don't think she has any realistic here,
Speaker 2: but yeah, Osorio Osaka is fun, Asaka thousand's fun, Osaka
Speaker 2: Andreva is fun, or Bakan Andreva is fun. All of
Speaker 2: those matches really are coin flips. I think Andrevia Tausend
Speaker 2: would not be a coin flip. Andrevo Osaka would be.
Speaker 2: For me, Rebaknas we don't have to get into the
Speaker 2: details of what's going on there. But I'll just say, scoreboard,
Speaker 2: we were right about all of that bullshit. Just a
Speaker 2: gross story I've top to bottom, and no real end
Speaker 2: insight there. From what I can tell, doesn't sound like
Speaker 2: that's a finalized chapter of her life by any stretch
Speaker 2: of the imagination.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will get into details, but but what Drew
Speaker 1: is referring to is a coach slash romantic interest slash
Speaker 1: hing abuse presence presence.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, and in multiple channels, and abusive presence in
Speaker 2: her life is still kind of you know, still trying
Speaker 2: to sort out the messiness there. But yeah, she's still
Speaker 2: good enough to win this. I just I don't think
Speaker 2: she Andreva getting the better of her. At at Dubai,
Speaker 2: I thought was pretty it was pretty tell tale that
Speaker 2: Andreva is out of her right now, what did you think?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I thought so too, and and and you can't
Speaker 1: help but have your mind go to if that situation
Speaker 1: did not exist in her life, this would.
Speaker 2: Be yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah, Andreva is trying to
Speaker 2: prove it like she's she's trying to prove it as
Speaker 2: opposed to Rebecca looking for answers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, he's not, by the way, for those
Speaker 1: he's not as he's not technically her coach in everything.
Speaker 2: He's been suspended from from the w t A Tour,
Speaker 2: but he's still is like showing up at all these
Speaker 2: tournaments and like camping out in the freaking lobby like
Speaker 2: a stalker. It's bad news anyway. Yeah, if you made
Speaker 2: me take one, I'll take Andreva. But I think the
Speaker 2: math is going to say to take to bet Pagoula
Speaker 2: here just because there's an imbalance. Does that make sense?
Speaker 1: Yep, Yeah, because Pola has the easier half of that
Speaker 1: quarter Yeah.
Speaker 2: Q four probably going to pass though, because I don't
Speaker 2: want to have a ticket on Pegula and see her
Speaker 2: draw Andreva, Rebakna or Osaka in that quarterfinal, and I'd
Speaker 2: be like, well, I guess I need to do her
Speaker 2: job against the monster.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a tough one. And then the final quarters
Speaker 1: is Egas, which is Egos seated two here. But it's
Speaker 1: not easy. It's uh. On the other side of it,
Speaker 1: Jangshin Win, Leninoskova, Paola Badosa on her half of the bracket. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's not easy. Mohova and Jabbors we talked about earlier
Speaker 1: there you go.
Speaker 2: There's Yeah, there's a lot of really good, interesting women's
Speaker 2: tennis players in her quarter, but they all have real
Speaker 2: they have more serious question marks than Ega is right now. Yes,
Speaker 2: EGA's question marks are like can she just stay the distraction?
Speaker 2: And we should also kind of point out the distraction
Speaker 2: also includes the fact that she has a new coach,
Speaker 2: that she is going through the same sort of drug
Speaker 2: you know, kind of non impactful positive tests, you know,
Speaker 2: kind of appeal nonsense that Cinner went through, and there
Speaker 2: is you know, just little things like that have had
Speaker 2: sort of an outsize impact on her for whatever reason.
Speaker 2: So ultimately, I wouldn't say with high confidence Eagles to
Speaker 2: play here, but if you're going to get her anywhere
Speaker 2: in the ballpark of pick them for her quarter, it's
Speaker 2: a smash. I would lay up to about minus one
Speaker 2: twenty five for her in this quarter because Bodosa is
Speaker 2: a health question mark right now. She withdrew from Mereda.
Speaker 2: Mereda when is out of form. Noskova has been solved
Speaker 2: for Yga, Shabor has been solved. Putin Seva is a
Speaker 2: little bit of an interesting one, but now super scary
Speaker 2: Muhovah is not a full you know, thumbs up question
Speaker 2: mark or full thumbs up of health right now, So
Speaker 2: put it.
Speaker 1: Zema is a total pain of the ass.
Speaker 2: She's a pain. But I don't think she gets by
Speaker 2: Mohova personally. I think IGAs match against Mukova and fourth
Speaker 2: round is probably that decides the quarter. And I think
Speaker 2: if you can, I would lay up to minus one
Speaker 2: twenty five've heard one Q four.
Speaker 1: Okay, I like that.
Speaker 2: Not losing sleep over.
Speaker 1: That, No, I agree with you. This is a you know, again,
Speaker 1: we don't know about the surface. We don't know. We
Speaker 1: don't know what the change will. You know the effect
Speaker 1: that it will have, but if it's anywhere close to
Speaker 1: what it was. This is her kind of hard court,
Speaker 1: meaning that it's a slower variety of it. She can
Speaker 1: get to everything on the court. It's just she's an
Speaker 1: amazing athlete and obviously has all the shots. It's just
Speaker 1: between the ears. As you say, just see, she does
Speaker 1: have to seem it. She does seem to have a
Speaker 1: a very I don't know that there's another player that
Speaker 1: I think of like this, where they can be so
Speaker 1: dominant and then you show up in a quarter, you
Speaker 1: show up in a semi whatever it is and something
Speaker 1: one thing will go wrong, there'll be a little bit
Speaker 1: of adversity, and it's just a crumble kind of situation.
Speaker 1: But this, I said this on the radio side, I
Speaker 1: think the Sunshine double meaning this in Miami will tell
Speaker 1: us a lot about how we feel about the women's
Speaker 1: tour moving forward, because you could it could very much
Speaker 1: revert to how it's been and we would jump on
Speaker 1: that in no time. If like IgA performs well or
Speaker 1: Saballaga performs well, in all the great players as we
Speaker 1: know at the top of the tour play well, I
Speaker 1: think it reverts to how we sort of compartmentalize all
Speaker 1: this or put it in context, I should say. And
Speaker 1: if it doesn't, then we really truly have a wide
Speaker 1: open besides Clay, maybe we have a wide open truly
Speaker 1: as wide open as it's been a really wide open tour,
Speaker 1: or maybe a Mirra Andreva is now thought of as
Speaker 1: one of that top group, if not towards the top
Speaker 1: of that top group, you know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if we get to the end of
Speaker 2: the year and Andreawa is world number one, are you
Speaker 2: gonna suppressed.
Speaker 1: A little bit but not completely.
Speaker 2: Not considering yeah, I mean, just considering the state of
Speaker 2: everybody else. You could end up getting the center, you know,
Speaker 2: slap slap on the wrists. After French Open, she helped
Speaker 2: she just to miss Wimbledon and a bunch of hard
Speaker 2: courts that she doesn't like to play anyway.
Speaker 1: I thought I thought Ego was done with all that, though.
Speaker 2: I thought Sinner was too until they out of the
Speaker 2: clouds appealed it. So who the heck knows?
Speaker 1: I don't know who? Okay, So then let's just recap
Speaker 1: then what we like. Well, first of all, so is
Speaker 1: there a outright on the lady side or are you
Speaker 1: steering clear? Or is the benchit roll over your sort
Speaker 1: of way of doing it.
Speaker 2: I think the biggest money is coming benchich rollover to
Speaker 2: win Q two. I don't think she wins the title here.
Speaker 2: I think she'll probably be out of gas when she
Speaker 2: takes on probably a lightly tested sable Anka in the
Speaker 2: semi final. In the top I think he guad comes
Speaker 2: through the bottom and I think we get we finally
Speaker 2: get our you know, a long time coming. A little
Speaker 2: head to head between Egan and sable Anca like both.
Speaker 2: They're both they're both pretty lately they're both pretty lately
Speaker 2: tested so far, this year in terms of fatigue, like
Speaker 2: they should be able to they should be this should
Speaker 2: be sort of the I guess here, if these two
Speaker 2: women do not meet in the final, whichever one doesn't
Speaker 2: get there or both don't get there, then you know
Speaker 2: it's it's time to call another fire department raised, you know,
Speaker 2: another fire alarm up. You know, like, let's this is
Speaker 2: starting to.
Speaker 1: Get serious my apartment, because yeah, because this is.
Speaker 2: This is this is this is the start of the
Speaker 2: season for these two women. They need to flip the switch.
Speaker 2: This matters more and they need to play better.
Speaker 1: Okay, and just so benchits rollover IgA quarter up to
Speaker 1: minus one twenty.
Speaker 2: Five Sablanca quarter is good. Pretty much got it. It's
Speaker 2: going to be a big number. It's going to be
Speaker 2: like one. I gotta think she.
Speaker 1: Got a she got a cake walk.
Speaker 2: And then if it's not a big number, then that's
Speaker 2: a lay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, men's side hechka q two. We are in agreement
Speaker 1: on that.
Speaker 2: And then fun one.
Speaker 1: Carlitos is still the guy to beat though for the
Speaker 1: whole thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think outright, Carlitos, kick your feet up endore
Speaker 2: these two weeks at tens. If the surface really is
Speaker 2: that different than we idjest next year. But that's right,
Speaker 2: even on like a medium fast hardcore, he's still clearly
Speaker 2: like we live in a world right now. I think
Speaker 2: where the men's is, center, Carlos and everyone else, and
Speaker 2: guess who's not in this tournament center.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's correct, serving his little band.
Speaker 6: It'll be back for the French.
Speaker 2: It'll be the freaking one seed. I did the math
Speaker 2: at the other day and I was like, good lord,
Speaker 2: he's still gonna be the freaking one seed for the French.
Speaker 2: Even if he doesn't do anything in the Italian Open,
Speaker 2: He's still going to be the one seed.
Speaker 1: He's uh he he got off. I mean, it's just
Speaker 1: guess you know, we've talked about it. It's I think
Speaker 1: the whole thing in tennis is stupid, Like I just
Speaker 1: do I do, I mean cause I don't know. People
Speaker 1: fall into their own little fiefdoms of well, if they
Speaker 1: like the player, they don't. They obviously think the players innocent.
Speaker 1: They don't like the player, they immediately think the player
Speaker 1: is guilty. And who knows what's true what's not. It's funny.
Speaker 1: Maybe Simona Hallip, maybe Simona Hallep wasn't wrong. Maybe I
Speaker 1: don't know.
Speaker 2: Oh she got she got the real raw she did,
Speaker 2: Brian of this, no question. I'll just say this. If
Speaker 2: you think ropin the Dolls perfectly crystal clean, look at
Speaker 2: yourself in the mirror and say that out loud. If
Speaker 2: you think Djokovic is perfectly clear, yourself mirror. If you
Speaker 2: think Fetter is perfectly clean, you're right. He is perfect clean.
Speaker 2: He's a very very good person, and he's my favorite
Speaker 2: player of all time.
Speaker 1: And I can't imagine are exactly exactly what I mean.
Speaker 1: It was so funny because people are like nodding their
Speaker 1: heads and they're like, wait a minute, yeah, but three
Speaker 1: of them, to your point, the three of those guys
Speaker 1: changed everything we ever knew about tennis. But so did
Speaker 1: Serenas right in terms of an age curve.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, absolutely all right.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Man.
Speaker 2: Enjoyed the desert, man.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Enjoy the rest of your trip skiing.
Speaker 1: We will put that. I'm gonna put this up as
Speaker 1: soon as I can. I know Zach wants to chime
Speaker 1: in as well, but we will throw it up right
Speaker 1: after that, and uh, good luck with the tournament, man.
Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll be uh communicated as it goes, all right,
Speaker 1: see then Drew dinsic everybody, uh whale, Underscore Capper again,
Speaker 1: Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molitor, and then NBC Sports
Speaker 1: bet the which she does with Jay Croucher and to
Speaker 1: come is what again, let's close with.
Speaker 2: That NBC Sports betting analyst. You'll see us all over
Speaker 2: if you go to the NBC Sports webpage apparently, so
Speaker 2: I'll keep you posting.
Speaker 1: Fantastic, Thank you, Drew. All right, So that was me
Speaker 1: and Drew on Monday evening, right as the draw had
Speaker 1: come out on the men's side and was coming out
Speaker 1: on the women's side, or again, as I should clarify,
Speaker 1: the women's actually came out first, but I think they
Speaker 1: had a problem with the bracket and so they released
Speaker 1: the full men's bracket first because initially they were like
Speaker 1: Osta Penko's on the other side of Sia Tech. Now
Speaker 1: she's on the same half as Fiatech. So I don't
Speaker 1: know they had a thing at any Wells. They do
Speaker 1: everything right at Indian Wells except for the draw release.
Speaker 1: Now it is Tuesday morning, the second part of this SPoD,
Speaker 1: and I'm joined by of course Zach Cohen, who not
Speaker 1: only works at VSON, part of the glue that holds
Speaker 1: the whole operation together at VSON, but obviously not obviously
Speaker 1: maybe some don't know does a whole bunch for the
Speaker 1: tennis channel and podcast for him, and every once in
Speaker 1: a while might be able to be seen on the
Speaker 1: actual TV itself talking sports or talking tennis betting, although,
Speaker 1: as he has told us in the past, maybe they're
Speaker 1: not as open to receiving it as we'd like them
Speaker 1: to be at this point. Zach joins us now from
Speaker 1: his spot in Phoenix. How you do it, man, I'm
Speaker 1: doing well.
Speaker 5: I can't wait for this tournament.
Speaker 4: This is This is usually as good as it gets
Speaker 4: for a non major. I do like some of the
Speaker 4: clay Court Masters one thousands, but this is probably my
Speaker 4: favorite tournament.
Speaker 5: I really need to get over there again. I haven't
Speaker 5: been since Leave twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: Oh this will be my second. I am I am
Speaker 1: so excited. I was telling I was telling my girlfriend.
Speaker 1: I was like, I'm more excited for this two day
Speaker 1: trip than I was for like the two week vacation.
Speaker 1: I love this tournament so much, so obviously I'll you
Speaker 1: and I will will try to do it with alacrity.
Speaker 1: Here we talked about earlier with Drew the surface. None
Speaker 1: of us knew this. I assume you didn't know either. Sunday,
Speaker 1: they come out with the announcement, Oh, we're switching the surface.
Speaker 1: Remember that gritty, are slow, sandy hardcourt that we had.
Speaker 1: It's probably gonna be a little fashion now because we've
Speaker 1: gone with this with a surface that makes it more
Speaker 1: uniform with Miami and the US Open, which absolutely nobody
Speaker 1: was clamoring for Lake Cold. I don't know how you
Speaker 1: felt about that initial announcement in what you've.
Speaker 2: Observed so observed so far, so at first I.
Speaker 5: Really didn't like it. I texted you right away.
Speaker 4: I'm like, I like, you know, the diversity and events,
Speaker 4: especially on hard courts. I don't want everything to play
Speaker 4: really fast and favor of the big servers and the
Speaker 4: power players. I like, you know, the grittier clay court
Speaker 4: like vibe that we've had with the Indian Wells in the past.
Speaker 4: But I will say, having watched a lot yesterday of qualifiers,
Speaker 4: I was giving out qualifier picks. I was trying to
Speaker 4: kind of figure out how these conditions would play. It
Speaker 4: played really slow. First serve percentage points one were actually
Speaker 4: down from the past four years on the ATP side,
Speaker 4: and it was you know, not a significant margin, just
Speaker 4: but definitely a little bit low. And you saw some
Speaker 4: you know, big servers like a Christopher Eubanks just really
Speaker 4: struggling to hold serve. So I think I'm going to
Speaker 4: kind of treat it the same way that I have
Speaker 4: in the past. Maybe things changed drastically today, but I
Speaker 4: think for you know, as much as they might want
Speaker 4: to speed up the surfaces in terms of you know,
Speaker 4: switching the lake cold and actually changing the surface itself,
Speaker 4: the desert conditions are going to slow it down.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mentioned that with Drew, where it's like, okay, I
Speaker 1: mean we all tend to overreact. Maybe the balls will
Speaker 1: balance a little less high, maybe it will be a
Speaker 1: touch faster, but no one's expecting it to play like brass, right,
Speaker 1: So that's interesting what your observation is from Quali's already.
Speaker 1: So that makes me feel better because I don't, like, like,
Speaker 1: I don't know why they would strive for uniformiti Zach like,
Speaker 1: I don't want that. I want diversity. This is what
Speaker 1: makes this tournament interesting.
Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe it's you know, reading too much into medvetive
Speaker 4: and players of his status complaining about it being so different,
Speaker 4: But I really just don't want to see it to
Speaker 4: play anything like Miami. I love how different these two
Speaker 4: weeks are. It's called the Sunshine Double, where the tournaments
Speaker 4: can not play anymore differently.
Speaker 5: So I like that. I hope it stays that way.
Speaker 4: I did pull from tennis abstract that you know the
Speaker 4: surface speed for Indian Wells's point eighty four, which means
Speaker 4: a sixteen percent lower ace rate at Indian Wells than
Speaker 4: a tour average surface. I think maybe you bumped that
Speaker 4: up to point nine or so with the changes, but
Speaker 4: I would say it's still gonna play slower than the
Speaker 4: US Open in Miami.
Speaker 1: I love that perfect quantification of it. Okay, that makes sense.
Speaker 1: I'll go with that. I'll go with point nine, and
Speaker 1: I'll be happy, all right. So now Zak and I
Speaker 1: were just talking about this. Obviously, you know people have
Speaker 1: been listening to this pod to this point. This is
Speaker 1: a real quick turnaround. The draw comes out, however quickly
Speaker 1: or slowly, they get that out, and it's thirty six
Speaker 1: hours so this tournament starts. So now it's the next morning.
Speaker 1: Nothing was available before we went to sleep last night.
Speaker 1: This morning, DraftKings at MGM were the first to put
Speaker 1: out tournament odds. MGM BET MGM the first to put
Speaker 1: out quarter odds. Let's start on the lady side. What
Speaker 1: did Julanta? Because I have made one wager, that is
Speaker 1: all I have made so far, one wager so far,
Speaker 1: and I'm curious where you have gone on the ladies, so.
Speaker 5: I made a few. I have Sabalanca to win the
Speaker 5: tournament at plus four fifty. I got that at fan Duel.
Speaker 5: I think it's still out there.
Speaker 4: I also took Sablanca to win her quarter at minus
Speaker 4: one twenty. I just looked at the players that she
Speaker 4: might be facing compared to the other elite players, and
Speaker 4: it's like a completely different tournament like this is it
Speaker 4: feels like a Grand Slam for Ega for Sabolanca, She's
Speaker 4: not going to feel that way until the semifinals. I
Speaker 4: think I just don't see anyone in her portion of
Speaker 4: the bracket really challenging her. It's really crazy, honestly, if
Speaker 4: you really look at it, like there's not even a highly.
Speaker 5: Seated player that would even threaten her.
Speaker 4: Having said that, nothing's a given, but I do really
Speaker 4: like her at minus one twenty. That was my biggest
Speaker 4: play of the tournament so far. Also with you though,
Speaker 4: on Belinda bench just win quarter two. I got that
Speaker 4: at plus five hundred, and I also took Emma Navarro
Speaker 4: plus seven hundred. And the way I kind of saw
Speaker 4: that bracket playing out is I see Benchach playing Navarro
Speaker 4: in the quarterfinals.
Speaker 5: So I'm hoping just to have you know, one of
Speaker 5: those two getting to the Sunnies.
Speaker 1: I agree with everything you've said, obviously in the Benchic
Speaker 1: case I got. I got Benched six to one Q
Speaker 1: two this morning, and I was telling Drew I have
Speaker 1: Benchic as having and it is a smaller sample size
Speaker 1: because she hasn't played as much, certainly not even in
Speaker 1: the last year she hasn't. But these are all like
Speaker 1: out of fifteen matches her hardcore numbers. I'm just taking
Speaker 1: pure hard courts, not sort of distinguishing by gradation of
Speaker 1: hard courts as you just did with this cord. But
Speaker 1: hers is second to EGA in terms of just raw data.
Speaker 1: So six to one for me in a stacked quarter,
Speaker 1: right Goff who's out of form big time. And I'm
Speaker 1: being kind Rod O'Connor, zakari a Nissimova, which could be
Speaker 1: benchitch A, Nissa Mova, round two, Schneider Navarro. I've an
Speaker 1: Asian is even playing great, Beckich Merten's Keys. I mean,
Speaker 1: everybody keys has never done think of this tournament. But
Speaker 1: all of those are in one bracket in one quarter,
Speaker 1: and you're right about Sabolenka, Zach, that's the easiest quarter.
Speaker 1: To me, she really got the best of it. Kessler
Speaker 1: is her second, her potential second round apointed. That might
Speaker 1: be the scariest person she has to play Alexandrova, I said,
Speaker 1: Keina Fernandez, kuder Matova and Paulini, and Paulini is a
Speaker 1: shell of what she was a year ago. I think,
Speaker 1: so I'm with you on that, man. It really played
Speaker 1: out well for her.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know actually who I have playing Sabolenca
Speaker 4: in the quarterfinals of that, right, I have Kennon getting
Speaker 4: all the way there, which is I just think that's
Speaker 4: a really weak part, a really weak part of the draw.
Speaker 4: And I do think we saw something from Kennan in
Speaker 4: the Middle East. She played a lot better than we've
Speaker 4: seen in the last two years, and just talent wise,
Speaker 4: I do think she's still there. I have her beating
Speaker 4: Paulini again, which we saw happen in the Middle East
Speaker 4: as well. But yeah, I just don't see any of
Speaker 4: these players challenging, challenging Sabalanca with you on on a sign,
Speaker 4: I have her beating Donna Vekich in round two. But
Speaker 4: I do think that it's going to be Navarro Benchic
Speaker 4: in that quarter. And I think that Navarro's playing really
Speaker 4: well after having played well in Marito last week.
Speaker 5: And I don't really trust Madison Keys at this tournament.
Speaker 1: No, it's ever been we drew and I talked about
Speaker 1: it's never been her surface. She's only gotten to the
Speaker 1: quarters once. We had to look that up. So yeah,
Speaker 1: and it's all gravy for her at this point, right,
Speaker 1: everything is gravy. Yep. That's interesting about Kennon because I
Speaker 1: sort of smiled some of us remember Kennon's run to
Speaker 1: the Australian Open Final championship. Pardon me, right before the pandemic,
Speaker 1: I had that and she just when she's playing great,
Speaker 1: she's a pain in the ass, right, She's a really
Speaker 1: gritty player. But she she saw the bottom here for
Speaker 1: a couple of years, so we'll see what we did.
Speaker 1: Did she play Sloan in the first round?
Speaker 4: I think we said she played Sloan in the first
Speaker 4: round in a battle of like two not disgraced former
Speaker 4: Grand Slam champions, but two that just have been nothing
Speaker 4: like what we saw when they were in their primes.
Speaker 1: By the way, that is an amazing statut. I don't
Speaker 1: know what it is. I'd have to look it up
Speaker 1: right now, but the number of active players on the
Speaker 1: WTA Tour that have won a Slam is like, I
Speaker 1: want to say, it's like eighteen, or at least it
Speaker 1: was at one point. It's just an unbelievable number of
Speaker 1: players committed. For instance, right, who's won two Wimbledon's back
Speaker 1: in this tournament as well anything on the other half
Speaker 1: of the brack.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So in quarter three I took Naomi Osaka plus
Speaker 4: nine hundred, and I also took Jess Pagoula plus six
Speaker 4: hundred and just kind of playing off. You know, Pagoula
Speaker 4: played really well in Austin last week. I think that
Speaker 4: she's a player that kind of runs hot and cold.
Speaker 4: But you know, I think she found her form and
Speaker 4: I do think she's really dangerous on you know, what
Speaker 4: we think are these conditions in Indian wells where she
Speaker 4: hits really flat strokes kind of deep in the court
Speaker 4: makes it difficult on you to kind of get comfortable
Speaker 4: from the baseline. Is a really solid server now and
Speaker 4: a really solid returner. I think, you know, she's.
Speaker 5: Got a really reasonable draw.
Speaker 4: Obviously there's a potential early round matchup with Astapenko and
Speaker 4: you know Peyton Stearns is never easy. But I do
Speaker 4: think that at the number I really liked her. And
Speaker 4: then Osaka hasn't lost a match this year. She retired
Speaker 4: from a match she was winning an Alkoland against Clara Tossin,
Speaker 4: and then she retired a really close match against Benchich
Speaker 4: at the Australian Open. But when we've actually seen around
Speaker 4: the court, the movement has been great. The power is
Speaker 4: still there, and I do think that looking at you know,
Speaker 4: what the surface is now at the lake holds. She's
Speaker 4: been good at the Miami Open in the past, so
Speaker 4: I think she's really dangerous and live here. She would
Speaker 4: have to play, you know, Tossing in round two. I
Speaker 4: think Andreva round three a murderers row, honestly including a
Speaker 4: Rebakkana to get to the quarterfinals. But I do think
Speaker 4: Osaka plus nine hundreds of good value.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna mention. That's that's I guess Rebaccana's
Speaker 1: quarter is how we're supposed to say it, Rabakkana's quarter
Speaker 1: with Andreva in there. Andreva, who won her first one
Speaker 1: thousand tournament here in the early part of the season
Speaker 1: and is the Jesus Jo fun Sake of the women's tour,
Speaker 1: right She's the player on the come up who who
Speaker 1: you know, could be a top fiver before you know,
Speaker 1: she's already a top ten player. Sid Alina is also
Speaker 1: in there. Alter is just a sort of another name
Speaker 1: that I like your strategy on both of these though,
Speaker 1: in terms of your Osaka would play Pagoula in the
Speaker 1: quarter in the quarterfinal, correct.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so yeah, hoping to get both or one of
Speaker 4: them and then you take a few shots.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I don't. I don't hate it though, because
Speaker 1: these are kind of juicy numbers, like nine to one
Speaker 1: on Osaka. You're right, is is the surface fast enough
Speaker 1: for her? Would be my only but she's she's played
Speaker 1: great on clay before too. I think she's kind of
Speaker 1: all court yep.
Speaker 4: I think the best match she played last year was
Speaker 4: that French Open match against the Egos. So I think that,
Speaker 4: you know, the slower conditions maybe help her with her
Speaker 4: footwork a little bit, but it has been improved since
Speaker 4: she brought on Maritaglu to her coaching team. And this
Speaker 4: is a really fascinating portion of the job because I
Speaker 4: am with you. Andreva is just an unbelievable player to watch,
Speaker 4: and you know she's going to continue having big results.
Speaker 4: I do think that maybe we get a slam went
Speaker 4: out of her this year, but I think they're having
Speaker 4: to do it with this draw is going to be
Speaker 4: really difficult.
Speaker 1: All right. And then there is EGA's quarter, and you know,
Speaker 1: I asked you off I had actually asked Drew of this,
Speaker 1: but I asked you about via text, you know, about
Speaker 1: the Carlos proofing and the EGA proofing, and your comment back,
Speaker 1: which I think was accurate, was probably hurts Ega a
Speaker 1: little more. But what you're saying for what you've observed
Speaker 1: in the in the qualities, maybe it's not as big
Speaker 1: of a surface shift as we might think, but it's
Speaker 1: pretty stacked, like it's not easy. Mohov was in there,
Speaker 1: Odosa Noskova, who was giving Ego some trouble putin seven
Speaker 1: is a pain in the ass. Jabor's in there. Jane
Speaker 1: shin Winn who's out of form, is in there not
Speaker 1: to mention as a rank. So it's not easy anything here, No, And.
Speaker 4: I just think it's less to do with the conditions
Speaker 4: and more the draw. Like I think that having to
Speaker 4: potentially face like you just said, Jabor the Mukhova and
Speaker 4: then maybe like a Noskova or Jang like in the quarters.
Speaker 4: It's just a really tough draw for egos. So that's
Speaker 4: the reason I laid off. I still think I'm gonna
Speaker 4: be on Ego to win the French Open if I
Speaker 4: can get you know, minus won sixty five or so.
Speaker 4: But I do think hard courts players believe they could
Speaker 4: beat her now, and I think that's kind of you know,
Speaker 4: the big difference is there's not just the feeling defeated
Speaker 4: mentality when you get on the court with her anymore.
Speaker 1: Gee, we were talking about it earlier, which is she
Speaker 1: still got the best numbers and she still has the
Speaker 1: ability to dominate opponents. I mean, she destroyed Navara earlier
Speaker 1: this year, she destroyed her. But there is something about
Speaker 1: a little mental tweak like if something goes wrong in
Speaker 1: a match, or even calls it like the weird double
Speaker 1: bounce the match that she won, and how that he
Speaker 1: thinks that lingered with her, like there is just a
Speaker 1: weird thing with her. So I have I have Pagoula
Speaker 1: Q two at six to one. That bet is already in.
Speaker 1: I may add I like your Navarro, Osaka and Pagoula
Speaker 1: a strategy. I'm not going to say I'm to bet
Speaker 1: all of them, but I think that the Osaka and
Speaker 1: Pagoula one interests me a lot Osaka nine to one
Speaker 1: is a great number, yep. But if she thinks but
Speaker 1: if she played Pagoula, who I think she beats Pagoula.
Speaker 6: I'm not sure.
Speaker 4: I filled it out with beating Osaka. I I filled
Speaker 4: out a racket like it's much badness just to kind
Speaker 4: of like give myself a visualization. But I have Pagoola
Speaker 4: beating Osaka.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then I I think I'm going to have
Speaker 1: a you got ticket to win it all just because
Speaker 1: I'm just that's me and but I'm with you. Sabalaka
Speaker 1: got the easy part of it. And again, if he
Speaker 1: go wins this, it is three out of four. So
Speaker 1: like wouldn't be the biggest shot in the world if
Speaker 1: she did. Because again, people can say what they want.
Speaker 1: She still got the best numbers in them, So yes,
Speaker 1: she's very early.
Speaker 4: She's very early in a partnership with a new coach too,
Speaker 4: which is kind of underrated is that, you know, there's
Speaker 4: some some feeling out there it needs to be done,
Speaker 4: and I do think that just everything that they're doing
Speaker 4: is to kind of work on hard courts, Like she
Speaker 4: doesn't need to change the way she plays on clay.
Speaker 4: So there's definitely a little bit of, you know, just
Speaker 4: stuff they're figuring out right now. And I wouldn't be
Speaker 4: surprised if she were to put it together here. This
Speaker 4: is definitely the most clay like of the hard courts
Speaker 4: I think we saw in Doha. She played very well
Speaker 4: before running a toasta Pankos, so it's not it wouldn't
Speaker 4: be surprising.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for those who don't know Ego with all of
Speaker 1: her slams, all five of them. Thomas wick Tarowski was
Speaker 1: her coach and then sort of surprising, No, I didn't
Speaker 1: really see this coming. She decided to make a move
Speaker 1: and Wim Facett is her new coach who she hired
Speaker 1: at the end of last year. And once Wim Faset
Speaker 1: can figure out how to pronounce her name correctly. Things
Speaker 1: should be going well, can't. He's like swia tech. I'm like,
Speaker 1: oh god, dude, come on, just ask her. That's right.
Speaker 1: You better not like you don't know her all right.
Speaker 1: To the men, I like everything you said there, man.
Speaker 1: To the men, where Carlitos is the short shot to
Speaker 1: win all of this? Now, by the way, I should
Speaker 1: od just to clarify for folks who don't have it
Speaker 1: front and center on the lady side to let me
Speaker 1: pull them up. So I'm I'm timely inaccurate. But Arena Sabalanca,
Speaker 1: the number one seed, number one in the world, is
Speaker 1: the short shot at plus or fifty, Ega the number
Speaker 1: two seed and the number two player in the world
Speaker 1: right behind her. At what's the consensus you're seeing like
Speaker 1: four plus four seventy five something like.
Speaker 5: That on this Let me try to find it.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to find out what the e consists here again,
Speaker 1: this is all there's a for you five to one
Speaker 1: at DraftKings for Ego.
Speaker 5: Yeah, four to one.
Speaker 1: On Arena five to one for Ega. Then Rebakena and
Speaker 1: Golf both at eight to one. If you bet Coco
Speaker 1: Golf at this point, you're braver than I am. And
Speaker 1: then Andreva eleven to one, Maddie Keys twelve to one.
Speaker 1: Don't do that, Jesse Pagol twenty five to one, Mohova
Speaker 1: thirty to one, Anissimova thirty to one, Astapenko forty to one.
Speaker 1: What is benchic to win at all? Sixty to one?
Speaker 1: Good god, jesh, maybe I'll play that too. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: have to add some man. I'm gonna go crazy. Men's side,
Speaker 1: let's start the men's discussion with actually giving these on
Speaker 1: the men's side, men's side, let's see what here. See
Speaker 1: the men, it doesn't come up. They don't have it listed,
Speaker 1: I see, whereas on the lady's side they do have it.
Speaker 1: Hold on, maybe hold on. Maybe I'm wrong, I know.
Speaker 2: This is fascinating.
Speaker 1: Checker. Oh, here you go. Uh, Carlitos plus two fifty. Novak,
Speaker 1: who is in Carlitos's quarter, is the second shot of
Speaker 1: plus six fifty. The number one seed Sasha is Verev
Speaker 1: is seven to one, then Medvedev fourteen to one, Fritzen
Speaker 1: Sitsipas both eighteen to one. There's your men's autum. Uh.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have an outright to start
Speaker 1: with you can all either go there or go to
Speaker 1: quarter one? What do you want?
Speaker 5: I played two outrights.
Speaker 4: I played Sitzepass at nineteen to one, which feels definitely
Speaker 4: a little prisoner of the moment. He after, you know,
Speaker 4: a good run in Dubai last week. But I do
Speaker 4: think that that top half of the draw is gettable,
Speaker 4: and I think on a slower kind of hardcourt like
Speaker 4: we just saw, you know, two events in a row,
Speaker 4: I think that sits Apasa is going to look a
Speaker 4: little better from the backhand wing which he has over
Speaker 4: the last two weeks, and I just don't really see
Speaker 4: anybody in front of him that he's going to be fearing.
Speaker 4: I think, you know, a potential matchup with Barrettini in
Speaker 4: round three is is tough because those that match could
Speaker 4: have gone either way in Dubai. But I think nineteen
Speaker 4: to one is a pretty good number considering who's in
Speaker 4: that half of the draw. I think that Zverie is
Speaker 4: going to go out early again. I don't know if
Speaker 4: it's the bicep injury that he's got taped right now,
Speaker 4: or it's you know the pressure of trying to play
Speaker 4: for you know, the number one ranking in the world.
Speaker 4: But he has not looked good between the Golden Swing
Speaker 4: and then just everything we've seen Nacapolco. I just I
Speaker 4: think he's bound for an early loss, and that's kind
Speaker 4: of where I see the opening with Sitsupas. And then
Speaker 4: I did play Djokovic plus six fifty, and I can
Speaker 4: kind of talk to you a little bit more about
Speaker 4: how I view that Alcoraz matchup going. But I just
Speaker 4: am not the point where I need to see Carlos
Speaker 4: Pete Jokovic again before I believe it's happening.
Speaker 1: You are very much with Drew on Sitzipas. You are
Speaker 1: very much not with Drew on Joko. That's how I would, Yeah,
Speaker 1: but I did not have both of you landing on Sitzipas.
Speaker 1: By the way, you you for the outright hymn for
Speaker 1: the quarter, but you're right. I mean, Sasha Zverev is
Speaker 1: not in form. And while there are names in that quarter,
Speaker 1: Rune not in form. There is the Mahachas of the world,
Speaker 1: and the Baratinis and the Umbars, the Petchi Pericard probably
Speaker 1: not the service for him. Q two probably the easiest
Speaker 1: of the quarters, which is Caspar Rud's quarter of all people. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Medvedev have Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Leahchka, feast and mix and
Speaker 1: anything in Q two.
Speaker 4: So this is like, this is the draw of opportunity,
Speaker 4: and it's like I wanted to find a quarter winner
Speaker 4: really badly here, but honestly, like Rude Paul Medvedev, I
Speaker 4: could see any of them losing in rest second round here,
Speaker 4: It's like I just have not seen anything that makes me,
Speaker 4: you know, trust them to win a match that you
Speaker 4: know they should really go out and win. So I
Speaker 4: ended up staying away. The way I see it playing
Speaker 4: out is kind of you know, seeing Rude against Medvedev
Speaker 4: for you know, in the quarterfinals, but I don't feel
Speaker 4: strongly enough about it to about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is Drew definitely had one and he's he's
Speaker 1: going to Leahchka here. But I'm I, you know, when
Speaker 1: that when the quarter's numbers came out this morning, I
Speaker 1: was thinking Bench it's in Lahchka and I just I
Speaker 1: only bet Bench it. I was like, I gotta do
Speaker 1: a couple of shows. I'll come back and I'll think
Speaker 1: of others. I'm not sure I'm going to make that
Speaker 1: play I'm going to right now. My thinking is I'm
Speaker 1: going to have multiple plays on the lady side, and
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where my money's going get on the men's. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so you're staying away from Q two and you got Titsubas,
Speaker 1: I assume you're also betting him Q one. In addition
Speaker 1: to an out right with tits about, I.
Speaker 4: Was choosing between plus four hundred to win the quarter
Speaker 4: nineteen plus nineteen to one to win the tournament. I
Speaker 4: ended up going with you out right, just because I
Speaker 4: think that sits APAs is gonna beat whoever's in Q
Speaker 4: two the way he's playing right now. I don't think
Speaker 4: you know Mevedev's got the firepower right now to beat
Speaker 4: him if that ends up being the matchup, and if
Speaker 4: it's rude, We've seen Citzipas, you know, kind of beat
Speaker 4: up on rude in the past, so I like him
Speaker 4: to make the final.
Speaker 1: I'll say this again about Titsupas. A week, you know,
Speaker 1: ten days ago, this would be an impossible discussion. We
Speaker 1: would not have the same discussion. Yeah, he was playing
Speaker 1: so badly, but he had I was a thing I
Speaker 1: did very well on futures last week. I hit not
Speaker 1: I didn't do him pre flop, but I did a
Speaker 1: mid tournament on Jerry and Poul and Navarro wasn't anything
Speaker 1: that sexy. Jerry was good, but the others weren't. But
Speaker 1: the one that I didn't get was I had Ojali
Speaker 1: Asim and sits APAs kind of destroyed him in that final.
Speaker 1: Now am I played more on court, but every time
Speaker 1: the few times that he did get pressed, he looked
Speaker 1: sits APAs looked completely unmoved by any of it at all.
Speaker 1: The answers, as they say on the tennis.
Speaker 5: Stop, uh, the other side of a racket change.
Speaker 4: Yeah, oh sorry, I just he just made a racket change,
Speaker 4: and you never know like what that means to a player.
Speaker 4: It's like maybe it's a placebo. But there was just
Speaker 4: a different energy to him last week. You know, on
Speaker 4: return he was bouncing up and down on his feet
Speaker 4: and just kind of looked very engaged for the first time.
Speaker 5: In a long time.
Speaker 4: It's a guy that you know, it hasn't looked like
Speaker 4: he's been enjoying tennis for two three years now. And
Speaker 4: I know that there's a lot of weird stuff with
Speaker 4: you know, his dad and his coaching team. He got
Speaker 4: rid of him. Now he's you know, working with an
Speaker 4: interim coach. But I just thought he looked like he
Speaker 4: was enjoying himself for the first time in forever. And
Speaker 4: I think that just all of that equated to just
Speaker 4: a much better version of him.
Speaker 1: Not that I come to you for the gossipy part
Speaker 1: of this, but is he still with Podosa?
Speaker 2: They still together?
Speaker 4: Yes, But Bodosa just pulled out. I just saw a
Speaker 4: tweet that she pulled both out of that mixed doubles event.
Speaker 4: So I wonder if she's not gonna play the tournament
Speaker 4: this week?
Speaker 1: Oh wow, Well that would be a plus for Ego
Speaker 1: is in her quarter, right, I mean that not that
Speaker 1: she necessarily needed that, but that doesn't hurt if that's
Speaker 1: the case. That's interesting about Bodosa. Yeah, she just walked
Speaker 1: off the court in her last tournament, right, Jesus was
Speaker 1: just like, I've had enough back back injury. Allo Bodosa
Speaker 1: to the second half of the of the men's draw,
Speaker 1: Q three is the tough one, right rube Lev fritz
Speaker 1: O j Alias seem drape Or Fonseka menshik Na Kashima,
Speaker 1: Hatchinoff Shelton. I mean that is stacked. What do you
Speaker 1: got there?
Speaker 4: I didn't take anything yet I've been flirting with rube
Speaker 4: Lev and Fritz. I just think that rube Lev, the
Speaker 4: way he played in Doha a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 4: was lights out tennis, and I think these are going
Speaker 4: to be very similar conditions where he's going to have
Speaker 4: time on the ball and just his power is going
Speaker 4: to be a little overwhelming. It's just such a tough
Speaker 4: quarter that I could see anybody coming out of here. Like, honestly,
Speaker 4: I think Draper might be the best player in this quarter,
Speaker 4: but I just I'm nervous about him running out of
Speaker 4: steam the way he did against rube levn that final
Speaker 4: and in the third set he was kind of out
Speaker 4: on his feet and had no chance. I think that,
Speaker 4: you know, playing four physical matches in a row here
Speaker 4: would be it would meet in a similar fate if
Speaker 4: he faces Fritz in the quarters. So I think it's
Speaker 4: going to ultimately be Fritz rub Lev. I just don't
Speaker 4: love the price on Fritz at plus three fifty and
Speaker 4: ruby Lev five to one. It still seems a little
Speaker 4: short too.
Speaker 1: Drew was making the point too. This is a California tournament.
Speaker 1: Fritz loves a California tournament. He won this, he won
Speaker 1: Indian Wells. Remember the famous yep is he hurt? Oh no,
Speaker 1: it's an dull who's hurt that final right after the
Speaker 1: pandemic or during the pandemic. Okay, yeah, I'm with you
Speaker 1: there because the Draper thing is, you know, I guess
Speaker 1: I I can draw the comparison to Benchic and people
Speaker 1: might be like, well, why'd you bet? Benchi said, Benchicic
Speaker 1: probably has the most if you're talking about marquee potential
Speaker 1: round two matchup, benchis in this A movid probably doesn't
Speaker 1: get better than that. But I really believe Benchich is
Speaker 1: just a notch above and I think she can get
Speaker 1: her way through that quarter. In this case, Draper's got
Speaker 1: to play fun Seka in the second round, which is
Speaker 1: probably the Marquis's second round potential matchup. But it's just
Speaker 1: a gump, right, there's no resting, and so you just
Speaker 1: wonder if a bet is worth it here, and I'm
Speaker 1: with you, I don't necessarily fall on one. And then
Speaker 1: it's Q four Zach Carlitos, Alcarez, Novak, Djokovic, who may
Speaker 1: play Nick Kirios if Kirios beats a quality in round two,
Speaker 1: Shop of alof who's in form demnor is in there, Mofeist, Dmitrov, Davidovich, Folkina.
Speaker 1: You know, it goes on and on, but this is
Speaker 1: about Carlos and about Novak, and you've already sort of
Speaker 1: made your case here.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I just really like Novak and plus six fifty and
Speaker 4: I know that he would have to come out of
Speaker 4: a match against al Karaz and that seems really daunting.
Speaker 4: And it is like Alcaraz has been so good at
Speaker 4: Indian Wells. This is maybe the best tournament he has. Honestly,
Speaker 4: it's as good as he's looked at Wimbledon, as good
Speaker 4: as we think he's going to be at the French Open.
Speaker 4: I just think that this slow, hard court has produced
Speaker 4: the best tennis for him. But at the same time,
Speaker 4: the last two matches between Djokovic and al Karaz have
Speaker 4: been not lopsided.
Speaker 5: I wouldn't say that they've been dominated in any way.
Speaker 4: But I think that Alcaraz is having a lot of
Speaker 4: trouble kind of returning Djokovic's slider serve into his forehand side,
Speaker 4: and that was a big problem at the Olympics and
Speaker 4: it was something that they did not correct at all
Speaker 4: for the Australian open, and I'm just nervous about them
Speaker 4: kind of coming to this match with the right game
Speaker 4: plan to figure that out. And I also kind of
Speaker 4: think that Djokovic is just ability to hit flat, solid
Speaker 4: strokes eventually leads to Alcaraz errors when you know he
Speaker 4: kind of pumps up a forehand and tries to end
Speaker 4: a point, just you know, relying on his talent. I
Speaker 4: think that Djokovic kind of knows now that he can
Speaker 4: outlast him, both physically and mentally. And I think that
Speaker 4: if Djokovic is healthy after that hamstring injury.
Speaker 5: I think he's gonna beat him again.
Speaker 4: I know that that's a little crazy after he lost
Speaker 4: to Baratini, but that was his first tournament back. He's
Speaker 4: had a little bit of time since then, and I
Speaker 4: also don't know that it's really that bad of a loss,
Speaker 4: given the way Baratini has played over the last two years.
Speaker 4: So I just think that plus six fifty for Djokovic
Speaker 4: to get by Alkoraz and then from there, who has
Speaker 4: the mental strength and confidence to beat Djokovic in a
Speaker 4: big match.
Speaker 5: I don't think it's anyone.
Speaker 1: I'm unpumped because I have seen Carlitos play live but
Speaker 1: never Nadal or Federer or Djokovic, And so if I
Speaker 1: get a chance to see Jokovic would be awesome just
Speaker 1: to put on the old Bingo card. Djokovic, who will
Speaker 1: turn thirty eight years old in May as won five
Speaker 1: of these BNP Priybo opens one of five of these
Speaker 1: Indian Wells titles. Roger Federer won five as well on
Speaker 1: the men's side. That is the most, I believe all time,
Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken, Yes it is, but Carlos has
Speaker 1: won the last two, beating Medvedev in both finals. Did
Speaker 1: Djokovic ever play Federer in the final, Yes, he did
Speaker 1: twice and won both times. Who did not know that
Speaker 1: till just this moment, Yeah they did, They did overlap.
Speaker 1: Federer had won four of his five when he then
Speaker 1: faced Djokovic twice, and Djokovic ended up winning his third
Speaker 1: and fourth. Then Djokovic won his fifth against Rounich. Federer
Speaker 1: than won his fifth against Favrinka, and Federer actually lost
Speaker 1: a couple more after that. He got to two more finals.
Speaker 1: So Federer, yeah, he's been to nine finals. Yeah, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: go ahead, No, I.
Speaker 4: Was gonna say leave the year I was there. I
Speaker 4: believe it was Dominic team that beat Federer in the final.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean a team got his slam, so I
Speaker 1: didn't retire with that one, all right. So then recapping here,
Speaker 1: you like you are going. Let's let me you tell
Speaker 1: me if I left anything out here. Lady's side, you
Speaker 1: are going Sabalanca to win it all, and she does
Speaker 1: have the favorable draw. You have both Navarro and Benchit
Speaker 1: in Q two. You went both Pagoula and Osaka in
Speaker 1: Q three. Uh, and then on the men's draw. In
Speaker 1: the men's draw, you are going sits APAs outright, you
Speaker 1: steered clear of Q two and Q three, and then
Speaker 1: are all about Djokovic both to win Q four.
Speaker 5: In the outright, I just took the outright for the
Speaker 5: tournament plus.
Speaker 1: Fifty yep, gotcha, Okay, just put the outright. I like it. Man.
Speaker 1: There's nothing there that I'm that I WinCE at at all.
Speaker 1: I've only got the Q two benches play so far.
Speaker 1: I am going to add as well. I don't. The
Speaker 1: interesting thing is, and you had more on the women's
Speaker 1: side then you did the men's. I'm not sure I
Speaker 1: can get myself to any men's bet except for in
Speaker 1: matches obviously, but like I don't know, Like I'm too,
Speaker 1: I have too many question marks about everybody in what
Speaker 1: ends up being loaded brackets, whereas I have way more
Speaker 1: conviction with some of those and the numbers are more
Speaker 1: generous on the women's side. That's how I kind of
Speaker 1: landed on.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that I went into the tournament expecting
Speaker 4: to have something on Draper, But like you said, Fonseka,
Speaker 4: Felix Fritz, like he could lose any of those matches
Speaker 4: because they're all going to kind of be survefests where
Speaker 4: you get late into the sets and it becomes fifty
Speaker 4: to fifty late in those matches.
Speaker 1: They really legislated on sake out of this tournament, like
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, the kid will be great here soon,
Speaker 1: but it's not going to be here this week or
Speaker 1: or I should say this one week and a half.
Speaker 1: I like how Indian Wells tries to like say we're
Speaker 1: not a major, but we're more than just your average tournament.
Speaker 1: We do it for a week. By the way, the
Speaker 1: biggest thing that happened earlier on this podcast is that
Speaker 1: Drew because I'm an idiot, Apparently zact I forgot to
Speaker 1: check Southwest Airlines here from Vegas. So Drew tells me, Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's two straight flights from Vegas to Palm Springs on Southwest.
Speaker 1: I canceled all the flights I have. I got refunds,
Speaker 1: not credits. I assume I got credits, not refunds. Pardon me.
Speaker 1: And so I'm on Southwest now direct to Palm Spring.
Speaker 1: So I was literally you in Phoenix, pick you up,
Speaker 1: and then go to Palm Spring. That's what we're gonna do.
Speaker 5: So what days are you going?
Speaker 1: I'm just going for this weekend. I went last year,
Speaker 1: two years ago for the first weekend, didn't go last year.
Speaker 1: I think the first weekend is the if I mean
Speaker 1: if you have a job. Obviously, if you did have
Speaker 1: a job, go for the whole thing. But I think
Speaker 1: the first weekend to me, is better than the second
Speaker 1: because the second it's like Semis and finals and it
Speaker 1: finally kind of feels like the party's over. But the
Speaker 1: first weekend, man, it's unbelievable. They call it tennis Paradise.
Speaker 1: It really is tennis. The weather is typically perfect, the
Speaker 1: merch is awesome, the atmosphere in that tennis garden is incredible,
Speaker 1: as great as the US Open. As I was saying this,
Speaker 1: there's nothing quite like Indian will. It really is awesome
Speaker 1: the tennis hards, and I love that yesterday that everybody
Speaker 1: was waiting desperately for the draws, Like I love that
Speaker 1: about tennis fans. It's like this little community of like,
Speaker 1: where is it? It was our crack.
Speaker 4: Yes, Honestly, the early portion of any tennis tournament is
Speaker 4: the best. Just the matches all day. You get a
Speaker 4: day pass and just kind of cruise around. It definitely
Speaker 4: beats the end of a tournament.
Speaker 1: Yeah, even the US Open, which I mean I think
Speaker 1: a night match of the US Open ship on everybody's
Speaker 1: bucket list. The way they used to have it at
Speaker 1: the US Open, where they would play the men's semis
Speaker 1: and the women's semis the day before the men's final.
Speaker 1: Do they do that anymore? I did, I maybe they
Speaker 1: still do. I feel I don't think they do. I
Speaker 1: could be wrong about that.
Speaker 5: Infuse all the schedules now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it used to be used to have it
Speaker 1: every year and we can know it. But I remember
Speaker 1: that Super Saturday used to be a thing at the
Speaker 1: end of the US Open, and I'm not sure they
Speaker 1: play it that way anymore. I can't remember. Like you said,
Speaker 1: I'll run into each other, Zach, I appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: We're going to get this podcast out. I know it's
Speaker 1: a little abbreviated with you and me, but we want
Speaker 1: to get it out so that people have, you know,
Speaker 1: most of twenty four hours at least to listen to
Speaker 1: it with a quick turnaround and all of your picks,
Speaker 1: all of my picks for vson subscribers throughout the tournament
Speaker 1: and every tournament at Visa dot Com slash picks that is,
Speaker 1: for subscribers. I've been doing a bit. I've sort of
Speaker 1: been knocking up the management with like, hey, we need
Speaker 1: to get these tennis picks, you know, in the same
Speaker 1: way that these golf guys get their picks up. I've
Speaker 1: been on that what podcasts? Well, where can people find
Speaker 1: you these days?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 4: So, I mean most of my work will be at
Speaker 4: Visa and I'll have daily write ups for this tournament.
Speaker 4: I'll have a tournament preview up in a little bit
Speaker 4: after this. But I also so do this podcast called
Speaker 4: Tennis Bets Live. We're doing it, I believe tomorrow afternoon.
Speaker 4: I should know this salurd tomorrow afternoon or Thursday afternoon.
Speaker 4: Look at my Twitter and I'll tweet it out. But
Speaker 4: we'll do a live one hour kind of breaking down
Speaker 4: the fields, and then maybe another one next week or
Speaker 4: twice next week, kind of looking just through some matches.
Speaker 4: But yeah, you're getting most of my stuff at liston
Speaker 4: dot com daily write ups and then additional plays just
Speaker 4: as I kind of see lines move a little bit.
Speaker 1: And I will be on one. This is my second
Speaker 1: time the Inside in Tennis podcast.
Speaker 5: Yeah. Yeah, that's with Mitch who does these, the host
Speaker 5: of our Tennis Bets Live.
Speaker 1: With Mitch, right with Mitch who has a great voice,
Speaker 1: by the way, great radio. So I'm looking forward to
Speaker 1: that to talk Indian welles with him. Can't wait. Man.
Speaker 1: Zach appreciated it at betting on x on Twitter is
Speaker 1: where you can find Zach as well. Thank you, brother,
Speaker 1: appreciate that.
Speaker 5: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets Indian wells. We will
Speaker 1: be back next with a March Madness megapod with Todd
Speaker 1: Wish to even Will Hill