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Speaker 1: But if he finishes strongly, I would think he'll get

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Speaker 1: some downbout MVP votes as well. Not a lot, maybe,

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Speaker 1: but some. Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of Fair Territory.

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Speaker 1: Before we even get started today, I want to thank

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Speaker 1: Alana Rizzo, Bridgeroli and Alden Gonzalez for Philly in last week.

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Speaker 1: Really appreciated they all did a great job. And now

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Speaker 1: we are back and back with the Pennant races and

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Speaker 1: it's really interesting. At the start of every season and

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Speaker 1: even during the season, people will ask me, friends, fans, whoever, Hey, Ken,

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Speaker 1: who's going to win the World Series this year? And

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Speaker 1: my answer is always the same. I say, tell me

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Speaker 1: who's going to get traded and tell me who's going

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Speaker 1: to get hurt. And I'll be happy to tell you

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Speaker 1: who's going to win the World Series because the champion

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Speaker 1: is ultimately predicated largely on those two things. Right, Well,

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Speaker 1: we know who has gotten traded that happened before the deadline,

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Speaker 1: we still don't know the entirety of who is getting

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Speaker 1: hurt and who will be healthy because he changes every

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Speaker 1: single day in this sport. Examples from the weekend, James

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Speaker 1: Paxton goes down from the Red Sox James Paxton was

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Speaker 1: their big deadline edition for their rotation. He made two

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Speaker 1: starts and threw five pitches and that was that left

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Speaker 1: calf strain. He is probably down for a while. And

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Speaker 1: then the Dodgers with River Ryan, he became only their

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Speaker 1: eleventh pitcher, starting pitcher, I should say, to go on

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Speaker 1: the injured list this season. So this thing is constantly evolving.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to make a list here, two lists actually,

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Speaker 1: of teams that look to be on the upswing with

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Speaker 1: their starting pitching and team that looked to be on

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Speaker 1: the downswing. Now we're not talking about complete lists here,

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Speaker 1: not on either side. So before you start putting in

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Speaker 1: the comments what about my team, just hold on. I'm

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Speaker 1: not including the three teams that really have the best

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Speaker 1: rotations in the game, the Phillies, the Mariners, and the Royals.

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Speaker 1: The Phillies, yes, they've struggled of late, actually their nineteenth

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Speaker 1: and rotation erac it's the All Star break, but they've

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Speaker 1: got Taiwan Walker coming back, Rangers Suarez after that, I

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Speaker 1: ultimately believe they're going to be okay. The Mariners, we

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Speaker 1: know how good they are. And the Royals, yeah, with

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Speaker 1: Lugo and Waka and Brady Singer and Colerigan's and all

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Speaker 1: the things that they've done this year. They look like

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Speaker 1: they're in pretty good shape. I'm also not including, for

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Speaker 1: purposes of this discussion, the Brewers, who have a rotation

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Speaker 1: that I don't know is particularly good, but it seems

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Speaker 1: to be relatively stable right now. They've got Peralta, They've

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Speaker 1: got Savali. They had Dale Hall come back yesterday. I

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Speaker 1: don't know he'll be part of the long range outlook

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Speaker 1: for them. And they also have Tobias Myers and Frankie Mantas.

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Speaker 1: Mantes came over in the trade, and they have, for

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Speaker 1: whatever reason this season, been a really consistently good team.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not including the Brewers either. So let's get

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Speaker 1: to the actual lists of the teams that were I

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Speaker 1: think the arrows are pointing up. We'll start with them,

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to the teams where I think the

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Speaker 1: arrows are pointing down. Start with the ones pointing up.

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Speaker 1: Look at the Diamondbacks, Zach Gallon, Brandon Fott, and Water Rodriguez,

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Speaker 1: Merrill Kelly, who came back yesterday after a lengthy absence,

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Speaker 1: and they also have Ryan Nelson and don't forget Jordan Montgomery,

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Speaker 1: who if he ever gets going, could be an outstanding

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Speaker 1: addition to that rotation. All right, that's the Diamondbacks. They're

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Speaker 1: the hottest team in baseball right now, fifteen and three

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Speaker 1: since the break, and only getting stronger as they're starting

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Speaker 1: pitching gets healthier. The San Francisco Giants. Here's a team

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Speaker 1: that is closed within one and a half games of

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Speaker 1: a wildcard, and their pitching, too, is stabilized. Why well,

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Speaker 1: Blake Snell is back obviously, Robbie Ray has been a

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Speaker 1: great addition too, and Logan Web still one of the

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Speaker 1: most consistent starters, consistently good starters in the game. And Harrison,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Harrison, of course, has pitched really well for them

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Speaker 1: as well. The Braves a team that seems to be

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Speaker 1: falling apart in a different way every day. Sunday they

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Speaker 1: blew that six run lead to the Rockies, but they

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Speaker 1: still have the makings of an excellent rotation. Freed is

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Speaker 1: back now, Chris Sale has been a cy young candidate

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Speaker 1: all year, Rinaldo Lopez on the verge of coming back.

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Speaker 1: And then if you're looking at a playoff type rotation

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Speaker 1: for people, Schwellenbach could be the guy if it's not

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Speaker 1: Charlie Morton, who of course has a great postseason history

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Speaker 1: but hasn't been that great this year. And then finally,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna list the Chicago Cubs here. The Chicago Cubs,

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Speaker 1: for all of their shenanigans this year, for all of

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Speaker 1: their disappointing performance and their buy sell moves at the deadline,

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Speaker 1: they still are left with a potentially strong postseason rotation

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Speaker 1: in Monaga, Steele, Tayone and Asad and the Cubs. There

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Speaker 1: are only three games out in the wild card right now,

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Speaker 1: three and certainly the move for Iszach Parades helped them.

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Speaker 1: They traded Mark Leer from their bullpen at the deadline

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Speaker 1: as well. Kyle Hendricks, who I didn't mention on that list,

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Speaker 1: has been somewhat inconsistent still, but for a fifth starter,

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Speaker 1: has been fine. So I don't rule out the Cubs

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Speaker 1: in the Wildcard race, even though it is so crowded

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Speaker 1: because of their starting pitching. All right, now, you've seen

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Speaker 1: the teams with the arrows pointing up. Let's get to

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Speaker 1: the teams with the arrows pointing down. I could list

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Speaker 1: a ton of them here, starting with the Red Sox,

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Speaker 1: but we'll list some other teams instead. The Minnesota Twins.

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Speaker 1: Here's a club that has been just decimated by injuries.

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Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez, you see Joe Ryan, he is likely. I

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Speaker 1: don't know when he's coming back, if at all. I

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Speaker 1: don't miss Chris Paddock there. We don't know when he's

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Speaker 1: coming back, if at all. Belly Over has been really good.

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Speaker 1: Simeon Woods, Richardson really good, but they're relying on all

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Speaker 1: of these young pitchers now, including Richardson, some guys beyond him,

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Speaker 1: prospects that we never really expected to see this season.

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Speaker 1: The Guardians a team I've loved all season, but have

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Speaker 1: questioned all season with regards to the rotation. Biby came

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Speaker 1: back yesterday, was really good in his return from a

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Speaker 1: twelve day break. Good news. Gavin Williams has been really

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Speaker 1: good as well. Good news. Ben Lively consistent all season.

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Speaker 1: Alex Cobb his first start wasn't great, but he is.

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Speaker 1: Alex Cobb has a great history as long as he

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Speaker 1: stays healthy. You can see this group stabilizing a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but boy, they're operating on a very thin margin for era.

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Speaker 1: The Orioles now. The only reason I list the Orioles

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Speaker 1: here is because of the uncertainty surrounding Grayson Rodriguez. They

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Speaker 1: insist that his injury is mild, that he's coming back.

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Speaker 1: If he comes back, and he comes back healthy. I

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Speaker 1: love their top three Burns, Rodriguez and Eflyn. That is

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Speaker 1: a really good start of a postseason rotation. Then you've

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Speaker 1: got Dean Kramer and Trevor Rodgers, but without Grayson Rodriguez

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit thin. And then finally we have

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Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Dodgers. Who knows what will become of

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers' rotation by the time the season ends. It

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Speaker 1: seems to evolve by the day Glass now, yes, Flaherty, Yes, Yamamoto,

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Speaker 1: we haven't seen him in a while. Who knows if

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Speaker 1: he's coming back. And then you've got Gavin Stone, who's

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Speaker 1: been really good but hasn't thrown this many innings in

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Speaker 1: a season in his career, Kershaw, Bueller, Bobby Miller. They'll

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Speaker 1: have enough bodies to choose from, I expect. But how

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Speaker 1: good those bodies will be, how effective they will be,

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Speaker 1: who knows. So as the season goes on and we've

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Speaker 1: got seven weeks left, this ultimately amounts to a survival

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Speaker 1: of the fittest and it's a survival of the fittest

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Speaker 1: contest in a postseason that will include for most teams

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Speaker 1: four rounds that is really difficult to get through even

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Speaker 1: if you've got healthy arms. So it's going to be

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Speaker 1: really interesting to see how all this plays out. But again,

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Speaker 1: when you're talking about which team stand the best chance

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Speaker 1: of getting through October, it's going to be the teams

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Speaker 1: that have the most stable rotations, the healthiest rotations, and

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Speaker 1: of course the best rotations. Time out for the Inside Dish,

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Speaker 1: the part of the show where I talk about something

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Speaker 1: I've written, or something going on in the game or

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Speaker 1: an interesting trend, and this week I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about what I wrote about in the wind Up on Monday.

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Speaker 1: The wind Up, of course, is the Athletics Free Daily

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Speaker 1: Baseball newsletter, and what I wrote about is an awards

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Speaker 1: race that in my view, is shaping up to be

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Speaker 1: really interesting. And yes, you can talk about al MVP,

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Speaker 1: but no, I'm going to talk about NL Rookie of

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Speaker 1: the Year because this one, to me, has all the

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Speaker 1: elements of the great Rookie of the Year debates that

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Speaker 1: we always have each year, it seems, or not always,

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Speaker 1: but often enough. The three leading candidates in my estimation

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Speaker 1: right now are Padre Sana fielder, Jackson Merrill, Cubs Lefty

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Speaker 1: Showa Immenaga, and of course Pirates Wrighty Paul Skeins. Now,

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Speaker 1: there are other really good rookies in the National League

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Speaker 1: as well, and I'll mention some of them to avoid

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Speaker 1: the backlash that is inevitably coming. Mason win is one,

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Speaker 1: Jackson Churio is another, Michael Bush, even Tyler Fitzgerald who

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Speaker 1: hasn't even played sixty games yet, but those sixty games

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Speaker 1: or whatever it is have been pretty impactful. Okay, we've

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Speaker 1: got a lot of candidates. I'm sure I missed one

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Speaker 1: or two. Save it. Let's talk about the actual leading contenders,

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Speaker 1: because again, this is a really interesting question that we have.

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Speaker 1: And the first question is, Okay, what about a Japanese player,

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Speaker 1: an established foreign professional, as a rookie. Should that player

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Speaker 1: be considered in the same way as a Paul Steins

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Speaker 1: or Jackson Merrill. The answer is yes, and the answer

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Speaker 1: historically has been yes. We've had four previous rookies of

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Speaker 1: the Year who came over from Japan. Here's the list.

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Speaker 1: Hideo Nomo in nineteen ninety five with the Dodgers, Kausahiro

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Speaker 1: Sasaki the closer with the two thousand Mariners iiro of

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Speaker 1: course in two thousand and one with the Mariners, and

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Speaker 1: Shohei Otani in twenty eighteen with the Angels. And yes,

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Speaker 1: these guys really are not the same as the rookies

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Speaker 1: who come up through our system, but because they face

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Speaker 1: different challenges, they play in a different culture, in a

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Speaker 1: different country, with a different ball, it's certainly a test

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Speaker 1: that is almost at the same level. I guess you

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Speaker 1: could say as what a normal rookie in an American or

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Speaker 1: North American or even Latin American rookie would be facing.

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Speaker 1: So Immanaga is in the discussion, let's start with that.

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Speaker 1: Then the question becomes, okay, starting pitcher versus position player,

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Speaker 1: And this is a more interesting question in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Starting pitchers obviously don't have as big an impact in

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Speaker 1: many respects as an everyday player. They don't play as much.

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Speaker 1: And in Skin's case, he didn't even get to the

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Speaker 1: big leagues until early May. Imanaga has been with the

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Speaker 1: Cubs all season, So how do you value them in

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Speaker 1: this kind of race. We're not talking about war We're

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Speaker 1: talking about Rookie of the Year. Against a position player

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Speaker 1: such as Merrill, who has been with the Padres from

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Speaker 1: opening day. Well throughout baseball history, this has been a question,

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Speaker 1: and there have been a number of pitchers, starting pitchers

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Speaker 1: and relievers who have won the Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 1: Just hasn't happened that often, and it hasn't happened at

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Speaker 1: all since twenty sixteen. I'm excluding O'tani from this conversation because,

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Speaker 1: of course he is a pitcher and a hitter. Let's

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Speaker 1: look at the list of starting pitchers who have won

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Speaker 1: this award in this century. It's not very long. Jason

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Speaker 1: Jennings with the Rockies in two thousand and two, Don

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Speaker 1: Trulle Willis with the Marlins in two thousand and three,

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Speaker 1: Verlander Tigers, and six Jeremy Hellison with the Rays in

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Speaker 1: twenty eleven, Jose Fernandez, the late great Jose Fernandez with

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Speaker 1: the Marlins in twenty thirteen, to Graham with the Mets

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Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen. As I mentioned, Michael Folmer with the

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Speaker 1: Tigers in twenty sixteen. Six relievers have also won in

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Speaker 1: this timeframe, this century, the last twenty four years. So

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Speaker 1: what this ultimately will come down to is how you

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Speaker 1: value the starting pitcher, and how you value skeins versus

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Speaker 1: Imanaga versus the position player, whether it is Merril or

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Speaker 1: any of the others that I mentioned who might emerge

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Speaker 1: for all we know in the final seven weeks. Merrill,

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Speaker 1: to me, though, is a really interesting guy, a guy

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Speaker 1: who is at this point quite deserving. Now keep in

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Speaker 1: mind who Meryll is. He's a guy who played only

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Speaker 1: forty six games above a ball entering this season. He's

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Speaker 1: a guy who had never appeared in center field as

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Speaker 1: a professional, and the Padres handed him that job on

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Speaker 1: opening day said you're our opening day center fielder. This

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Speaker 1: guy had been an infielder, and he has played an

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Speaker 1: adequate center field and offensively has been an excellent player.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen in recent weeks that he has become

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Speaker 1: this incredibly clutch player as well. I want to show

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Speaker 1: you a statistic that Sarah Langs and the Elias Sportsbureau

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Speaker 1: came up with. This is amazing. Jackson Merrill has five

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Speaker 1: game time or go ahead home runs in the eighth

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Speaker 1: inning or later. Now, that ties mel Ott nineteen twenty

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Speaker 1: nine for the second most home runs of that nature

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Speaker 1: in a season at age twenty one or younger. Since

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Speaker 1: nineteen hundred, behind only Frank Robinson, who had six in

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Speaker 1: nineteen fifty six. Those two cats, Melott and Frank Robinson

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Speaker 1: are Hall of famers and pretty much inner circle Hall

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Speaker 1: of famers. Now, I'm not saying Jackson Merrill is going

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Speaker 1: to be that guy, but he has been a player

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Speaker 1: who not only has established himself as a Rookie of

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Speaker 1: the Year candidate. I expect that if this keeps up,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know that it will exactly, but if

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Speaker 1: he finishes strongly, I would think he'll get some downbaut

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Speaker 1: MVP votes as well, not a lot maybe, but some.

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Speaker 1: So the race again looms as something that will be

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Speaker 1: quite fascinating and it could get quite intense in the

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Speaker 1: weeks ahead, depending upon how all these guys perform. Now

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Speaker 1: there's one variable here that I haven't mentioned, the future

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Speaker 1: of schemes with regard to the twenty twenty four season.

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Speaker 1: There is the possibility, as the Pirates fall out of

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Speaker 1: the race, which I expect them to do, that he

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Speaker 1: will be shut down, that they will say, okay, that's enough.

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Speaker 1: We want to keep you healthy, we want to get

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Speaker 1: you ready for twenty twenty five. He has thrown ninety

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Speaker 1: two innings this season, and ninety two innings in the

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Speaker 1: major leagues, I should say, in addition to his minor

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Speaker 1: league innings, and at some point they might say, you

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Speaker 1: know what, Okay, that is enough that obviously would compromise

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Speaker 1: his chances somewhat in this discussion. And one other thing

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Speaker 1: I want to mention as well, for those who think

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Speaker 1: with the awards races that there's some kind of East

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Speaker 1: coast bias or West coast bias, some kind of coastal

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Speaker 1: thing going on. The way each of these BBWAA awards

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Speaker 1: is decided is with two voters in each league's city.

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Speaker 1: So for instance, in the National League, it's two voters

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Speaker 1: from every National League city. What that does is eliminate

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Speaker 1: the possibility of bias. Now, yes, certain players might get

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Speaker 1: more media attention, but for a writer in Pittsburgh or

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Speaker 1: a writer in Colorado anywhere, really that doesn't necessarily factor in.

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Speaker 1: We are all looking at the advanced now, all of

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Speaker 1: the things that are in front of us for each

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Speaker 1: particular player in each given year, and it really is

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Speaker 1: not numerically possible for the ballot box and awards races

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Speaker 1: to be flooded by one coast or another so it

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Speaker 1: will be a fair competition. And actually the three guys

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Speaker 1: I mentioned Emanaga comes from a big market obviously Chicago,

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Speaker 1: but Jackson, Merril, San Diego, Paul Skins Pittsburgh, these are

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Speaker 1: not two of the larger markets in the game, so

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Speaker 1: I don't expect that to be a factor at all.

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Speaker 1: I am looking forward to this race. I am looking

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Speaker 1: forward to all the races. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun discussion as we get into the final weeks. Now,

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Speaker 1: for Grill and Ken, let's get to your questions. First

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Speaker 1: question this week comes from Owen Amorine, who asked, do

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Speaker 1: you see a possibility that four NL West teams make

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Speaker 1: the playoffs? If so, how do we get there? Well,

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Speaker 1: obviously you get there by winning more games than any

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Speaker 1: of the other teams. But yes, to be serious about

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Speaker 1: your question, which is a really good one, it is

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Speaker 1: possible that four NL West teams will make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the standings right now, the Dodger's

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Speaker 1: still in first place in the West, though their lead

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Speaker 1: has shrunk. The Diamondbacks and Padres are kind of comfortable

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Speaker 1: in the wildcard race right now. They're the two leaders

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Speaker 1: and they've got a four game lead over the next

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Speaker 1: team in the mix, the Atlanta Braves, and then you

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Speaker 1: go down a little bit more and they are the

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Speaker 1: San Francisco Giants, only a game and a half back.

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Speaker 1: So for the Giants to do this to become the

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Speaker 1: fourth team in the National League Playoffs from the NL West,

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Speaker 1: they would have to jump the three other teams that

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Speaker 1: you see there, the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets,

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Speaker 1: and the Saint Louis Cardinals. Certainly not impossible, not mathematically impossible.

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Speaker 1: As you can see right there, a game and a

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Speaker 1: half is nothing. Will it happen? I don't know. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the schedule means something to each of these teams, and

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Speaker 1: actually each of these teams I'm talking about the wildcard

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Speaker 1: contenders here from the West. They're hot right now, really

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Speaker 1: hot right now, all of them. The Padres, the Diamond,

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Speaker 1: the Giants. The question is how can they sustain it?

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Speaker 1: Can they sustain it? And will they be able to

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Speaker 1: ultimately beat out the Braves, Mets, and Cardinals. I don't

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Speaker 1: see that it's impossible by any stretch of the imagination.

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Speaker 1: What are the odds? Probably not great, but it'll be

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Speaker 1: something to watch as we go on. Here. Next question

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Speaker 1: comes from Thomas Garvain, who asks, Ooh, what do you

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Speaker 1: think will change for the Cardinals coaching staff, front office

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Speaker 1: ownership if they have another season without the playoffs and

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Speaker 1: possibly another losing season. It is possible that they will

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Speaker 1: have another losing season. There are only two games over

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Speaker 1: five hundred right now. They are not currently in playoff position,

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Speaker 1: and yes, there could be changes if they don't make

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. You would expect almost that there would be

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Speaker 1: right this would be two disappointing seasons in a row.

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Speaker 1: Ownership is not going to change. Builderwitz is not going anywhere.

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Speaker 1: The president Baseball Operations, John Mosey Lock there is kind

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Speaker 1: of an understanding in baseball circle that he's not going

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Speaker 1: to do this job much longer, maybe a year, maybe two.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he steps down after this year. Regardless of what happens,

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Speaker 1: I would say that is possible. He's done this a

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Speaker 1: long time. He is one of the longest tenured heads

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Speaker 1: of baseball operations in the game. So they certainly could

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Speaker 1: transition to either Hein Bloom, who is there right now,

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Speaker 1: or Michael gersh who has been there a while in

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Speaker 1: that front office as well. They also could go outside

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Speaker 1: if they decided to make a change. I don't know

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Speaker 1: that Ali Marmal will be in trouble. Remember they gave

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Speaker 1: him an extension in spring training, and I don't know

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Speaker 1: that you can put this on him. This is a

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Speaker 1: team that probably has come back pretty well considering how

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Speaker 1: it started, and a team that has kind of disappointed

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Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. They're two biggest stars, Paul

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Speaker 1: Goldschman and Noan Arnatto have not performed to expectations. So

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Speaker 1: if they missed the playoffs, if they finished below five hundred,

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Speaker 1: might that change at the top the head of baseball

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Speaker 1: operations happen? I would say the chances would be decent,

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Speaker 1: but it's not a sure thing. They value their stability

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Speaker 1: in Saint Louis sometimes to a fault, and I expect

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Speaker 1: that that is going to continue in one form or another.

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Speaker 1: Final question comes from I can't even pronounce this person's identification,

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Speaker 1: so we won't even try. But he or she asks

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Speaker 1: the future of Alex Bregman. Great question. Alex Bregman is

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Speaker 1: a potential free agent, as we all know, He's also

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Speaker 1: a guy who is not having his best year. His

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Speaker 1: on base is down, his power is still there, He's

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Speaker 1: not having a horrible year. He's still on an above average

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Speaker 1: offensive player and of course a consistent player overall for

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Speaker 1: the most part. But this is not what he would

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Speaker 1: have envisioned for his platform season. So where does he stand.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be interesting because of a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: One Matt Chapman in San Francisco, who hasn't opt out,

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Speaker 1: has arguably had actually not even arguably he's had a

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Speaker 1: better offensive year than Bregman. Slow start, but he's really,

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Speaker 1: come on, he is the better defender. We know that

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Speaker 1: he's also a year old older than Bregman. He'll be

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Speaker 1: entering his age thirty two season next year, Bregman his

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Speaker 1: age thirty one. So then the question becomes, Okay, these

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Speaker 1: two guys will be on the open market. Which teams

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Speaker 1: will be looking? It's probably not as many as we think.

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Speaker 1: I can think of a couple of teams right off

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Speaker 1: the bat who will need third basement, starting with, of course,

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Speaker 1: Regman's current team, the Houston Astros. The Diamondbacks, Yes, to

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Speaker 1: replace a Johanno Suarez the Mariners, that's certainly a spot

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Speaker 1: that they could look to address now With players the

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Speaker 1: caliber of Chapman and Bregman, and I should include the

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Speaker 1: Giants as well in this discussion if they lose Chapman.

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Speaker 1: But with players of that caliber, you will sometimes see

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Speaker 1: teams do things, make trades whatever to open up spots.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that that will happen, but I do

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Speaker 1: believe that Alex Bregman coming into this season stood a

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Speaker 1: much better chance of becoming like an elite free agent

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Speaker 1: than he does now. He's still going to be right

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Speaker 1: up there. Don't get me wrong, I'm not ripping Alex Bregman.

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Speaker 1: It just hasn't been the season in that maybe some

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Speaker 1: expected will this matter and free agency remains to be seen.

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Speaker 1: I want to thank everyone for their questions, everyone for watching,

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Speaker 1: for listening. You know where to find us, YouTube, Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 1: like us, subscribe to us, and of course join us

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Speaker 1: for the Thursday edition of Fair Territory, the one with

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Speaker 1: Alta Rizzo that's coming up in a few days. Have

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Speaker 1: a great week everyone.

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