WEBVTT - How Will Trump’s Immigration Raids Affect American Workers? 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:07.200 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:13.720 First, I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:18.800 All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:23.160 begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:27.240 aliens back to the places from which they came Boom. 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:38.320 I'm Stephanie Flander's head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.280 and this week on Trumpnomics, we're asking how will President 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:47.080 Donald Trump's immigration crackdown affect American workers. Now, as you know, 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.280 we usually go to our in house reporters and experts 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:52.360 for our discussion, and this week for the home side, 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:55.880 we do have Tim O'Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion, 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:58.360 back with us, catching up with him in London for 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:00.840 a change, because there weren't enough opinion here in the UK. 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:03.120 Hello, Tim, it's going to be here seventy. Thank you 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:03.720 for having me. 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:07.520 And I'm delighted to also be including Orn cass Oran 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.600 is the founder and chief economist of American Compass and 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:12.959 author of The Once and Future Worker, a vision for 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:15.679 the renewal of work in America. He served as Domestic 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:19.480 policy director for Governor Mitt Romney's twenty twelve presidential campaign 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:22.200 and has been senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.280 many years, and then his prolific writing and speaking in 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:29.560 support of a more worker centric conservatism, he has definitely 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:32.679 helped to shape the thinking of Vice President J. D. 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:35.080 Vance and others on what you might call the blue 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:38.520 collar wing of the mega coalition. Orn Cass Welcome to 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:41.080 Trump Andomics. We're really delighted to have you. 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:42.039 Oh thank you. 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:46.000 Donald Trump told supporters last week he thought immigration was 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.360 what got him elected, even more than the cost of living, 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.400 and we've seen him follow through on that in his 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.400 first hours as president with a slew of executive actions 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:57.000 that are already having consequences. There are troops down at 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.440 the southern border, for example, where he has declared a 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:04.120 national urgency. Asylum appointments have been canceled, and refugees around 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:07.960 the world have had their travel approvals revoked. So one 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.960 way or another, we know that Donald Trump intends to 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:13.920 lower the number of immigrants in the US. There'll be 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:16.280 plenty of discussion in the months ahead of the policies 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:18.600 he's using to do that, whether they're too much or 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:21.280 not nearly enough. But what we're looking at today is 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:24.640 how it will affect the economy, and especially whether it 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:28.280 will be good or bad for American workers. Many businesses 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:32.120 do fear it will put America's exceptional recent growth and 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:36.799 productivity record at risk and push up inflation. Others take 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.720 a more supportive and a certainly more nuanced view of it. 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.400 Welcome to Trumpnomics, the Bloomberg podcast that looks at the 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.840 economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the 0:02:49.880 --> 0:03:03.079 global economy, and what on earth is going to happen next. 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.240 There's lots of strands here, but let's start with what 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.200 impact do you think presidence more aggressive approach to illegal 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.520 immigration will have on the economy and workers who remain 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:14.200 in the US. 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:14.919 Well. 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:17.040 I think there will be an immediate effect and a 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:20.200 longer term effect. I think the immediate effect is that 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:24.359 we will start to see the labor market tightening significantly, 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:28.160 especially at the lower end. The reality is that illegal 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:32.600 immigration overwhelmingly goes into the labor market in a set 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:36.200 of low wage sectors, and those happen to be sectors 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:41.160 where working conditions are not very good, where typically we 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:45.600 have not seen significant investments in productivity increases because there 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:48.520 has always been an assumption that we can find illegal 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:52.360 immigrants to do the work, and so as those folks 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:54.880 leave the labor market, what we are going to see 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:58.360 is employers having to offer higher wages and better conditions 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.200 to attract the workers that they need, and that will 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:03.840 be a very good thing for workers. I think, probably 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:06.400 even more importantly is the medium to long run effect, 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:10.200 which is a real shift in the expectations of labor 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:13.840 market conditions. We have now been for decades running an 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:18.000 economy where if employers can't find enough cheap labor, they 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:21.600 scream labor shortage, and policy makers are supposed to respond 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:24.800 by providing more cheap labor. And that is not a 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:28.840 formula for economic prosperity. In fact, it is a formula 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:32.520 for the low productivity growth and wage stagnation that we've seen, 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:37.560 and so I expect to see much higher investment in productivity, gains, 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:41.520 in training, in bringing workers off the sidelines, all of 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:43.560 which is what our economy needs and what it should 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:43.960 be doing. 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:46.880 If you think the short term effect is going to 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:50.719 be to improve working conditions, because employers are forced to 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.960 offer more to workers, I mean higher wages, short term 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:58.400 surely spells higher prices, So you would agree with those 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:00.560 who are worried about the inflationary co consequences. 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.720 Well, I think it depends how the higher wages translate 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:07.039 into prices. One thing you may see, and we've seen 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.680 in the past also, is that when you bring in 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:12.400 some of those other workers, when you do offer higher wages, 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.440 when you do provide better working conditions, you also get 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:20.400 better productivity. And particularly in a competitive market, we should 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:23.320 expect there to be enormous pressure on employers to actually 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:27.000 find ways to get those productivity gains very quickly and 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:29.760 to keep prices low. I'm always a little bit puzzled 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:33.080 when the exact same folks who celebrate the wonders of 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:37.039 the free market and competitive forces then turn around and 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.599 if we're talking about immigration, say you know, oh no, 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:42.320 none of this works. It's all broken, Everything will be terrible. 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:46.880 Businesses are designed to operate under constraints and solve the 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.760 problems put in front of them. And the problem is 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.440 for our economy we have not put the problem of 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:55.800 provide a good product at a low price with the 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:59.280 workers in America as the problem to solve, And now 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:01.160 that is going to be the problem to solve. And 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.479 I'm actually somebody who has a lot of faith in 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.920 markets and businesses to solve that problem. It's very funny 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:09.839 to me that the quote free market folks are the 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.159 ones who run around with their hair on fires saying 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:15.760 if we actually let the market work, somehow everything's going 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:16.440 to fall apart. 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.799 That was I find, or at least it's sort of ironic. 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.720 Is the same people who say that immigration doesn't push 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:27.400 down wages do insist that reduced immigration will push up prices, 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:30.000 which I don't know it's one way or the other. 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:30.599 That's right. 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.040 I mean, we've gone through several rounds of this, right, 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:36.520 because when inflation was high, of course everybody said, well, 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:38.560 we need to bring in more immigrants to bring down 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:41.880 inflation and to suppress wage growth. And then of course 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:44.279 when inflation is not high, they turn around and say, 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.120 well we need to bring in more immigrants. That will 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.479 have no effect on wages. I think immigration absolutely does 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.279 have an effect on wages. I think it's just important 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.760 to recognize that the relationship between wages and prices is 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.440 not a direct one, and that in a healthy economy, 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:03.320 higher wages comes alongside higher productivity gains and in fact 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:06.880 lower prices. That is the tradition of capitalism working well 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:08.240 and generating prosperity. 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.480 There is one aspect of the economic research that I 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:11.720 wanted to put to you. I mean, we have a 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:13.960 team of economists here at Bloomberg, and you'll be interested 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:17.440 to hear that we don't think that cutting immigration and 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.840 expelling more illegal immigrants will raise inflation. In fact, because 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:24.080 of how much demand they represent, if you have a 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.960 lot of deportations, that's going to reduce consumption enough to 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:33.080 we actually think reduce GDP per head and even reduce inflation. 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:36.080 But for the same reason, we do think it will 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.320 hurt growth and jobs for everyone. And I don't know 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:40.600 you're probably aware of this, but the studies that have 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:44.840 been done in different counties that have had enhanced deportation programs, 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:48.640 they found that for every hundred migrant workers that was deported, 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.960 nine fewer jobs existed for natives because the demand of 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:55.160 those migrant workers was creating jobs for everyone, and the 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:58.200 native workers' wages also fell slightly. So are you not 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:03.520 concerned about that just directly deflationary effect and the possible 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:04.760 reduction and employment. 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.080 Well, first of all, I think it's very important to 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:12.200 distinguish between overall GDP and GDP per capita, because there's 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:16.000 no question that if you remove people from a population, 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.640 absolute GDP is going to decline, at least in the 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:20.200 short run. 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:23.160 There are on our findings is GDP per head I think, 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:26.440 because you're obviously aware of that issue, but this is 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:29.440 also about jobs for the Americans who stay behind as well. 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:31.880 But just to put a fine point on the GDP 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:35.280 per capita point, I'm not familiar with the particular study 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.040 that you're citing, but it's really important to keep in 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.640 mind also that the illegal immigrants who would be removed 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:45.720 from the labor force tend to be far below the 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:49.840 median GDP per capita, median wage level and so forth, 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:54.199 and so removing a significant number of them from the population, 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:58.199 just as a sheer matter of math, I think it's 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:02.480 extremely unlikely to reduce GDP per capita. I think the 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:05.720 best examples we have of what happens when you actually 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:08.120 enforce the law and remove people who are in the 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:11.600 country illegally is from the places that have actually done 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.320 that at scale. And you know, you can go all 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:16.480 the way back to the history of the end of 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:22.040 the Brasero program up through Florida imposing mandatory everify and 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.760 enforcing it over the last couple of years. I know 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.880 many people who predicted that Florida's economy would suffer as 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.920 a result. I don't know anybody who would say Florida's 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:32.800 economy has in fact suffered as a result. 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.400 Or in what lessons you take from Brexit in the 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.960 context of looking at other case studies. You know, one 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:43.240 of the arguments for Brexit, For example, Polish migrants were 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:48.040 taking farm jobs in Lincolnshire away from native Brits and 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.760 Brexit was imposed and the workers didn't come, and it 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:55.280 turned out that a lot of native laborers didn't want 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:59.400 those jobs anyway. So what do you have any lessons 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.600 real world lessons at a national level rather than a 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.680 state level from Brexit in the context of what we're 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:10.520 discussing about the impact of migration and restrictions. 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:14.080 Well, I don't take any lessons from Brexit in this respect. 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:19.000 I think Brexit was an entirely different context in terms 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:22.439 of both what was going on in the UK beforehand. 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:26.199 I mean, you're talking about very large numbers of legal workers, 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:30.640 and you're talking about a far broader economic Whether you 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:33.440 want to call it a dislocation or a shift in 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:37.720 the economic relationship that the UK had with the rest 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:41.840 of the EU. But I also do want to challenge 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:46.080 this sort of basic framing of somehow jobs that native 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:49.760 workers won't do. I'm not aware of any job that 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:54.040 anybody wants to take that is poorly paid in bad conditions, 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:57.600 and frankly, I'm aware of many people who will take 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:01.640 just about any job that is well paid in good conditions. 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.599 I'm not sure where we've gotten this idea that employers 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:08.720 are entitled to have workers take jobs that certainly the 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:12.440 employers themselves would not take. And again, it goes back 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:15.640 to this mental model that we've adopted that treats labor 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.440 as a commodity input, like it's lumber or steel or something, 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.400 and the cheaper and more plentiful it is, the better 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:25.920 off we will be. That's just not true. A key 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.360 feature and function of an economy, what we need it 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:33.360 to do, is to create good jobs for native workers 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:37.360 and legal immigrants, and having large numbers of illegal immigrants 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.840 makes that harder, and it's not something we should be pursuing. 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:43.120 I think one of the tricky things right now in 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:45.120 the discussion is that there are a lot of moving parts, 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.440 and a lot of them are theoretical. And in an 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:50.280 ideal world, yes, the economy would pay middle class wages 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:51.959 to everyone, so we could have a nation full of 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.200 middle class people. But the reason we don't is that 0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:59.520 some industries thrive on low wage labor by design, and 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.000 there are jobs that some people prefer not to take. 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:04.719 But we could go down a rabbit hole on that. 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.640 Well that that's no, I'd like to stay there for them. 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.080 That's not a rabbit hole. That's That is the exact 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.280 crux of the issue. Yeah, because why on earth should 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:17.640 we accept that some industries are designed to have bad 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:19.240 jobs that workers don't want to do. 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.559 I mean, because I think the rabbit hole. The rabbit 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.640 hole would spin off of the ways in which the 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:29.040 wage and price dynamic and labor supply. It is never 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:33.240 a perfect sphere of factors influencing one another. And and 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.840 the reality is low wage jobs have always existed in 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:42.960 the US that sometimes are at subsistence levels or certainly 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.840 don't provide entry into the middle class. That has been 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:48.360 a true forever, regardless of the models. 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:52.719 The other least the social safety net. It was one 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.840 of the things that was supposedly one of the strengths 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:57.959 of the US is that had a social safety net 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.880 that incentivized people to take to low paid jobs. 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.720 Let's take economics editor at Bloomberg as an example. I 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.920 don't know of anyone who would be economics editor at 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.440 Bloomberg for thirteen dollars an hour sitting on a dusty 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:13.760 crate in a hot field twelve hours a day. 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.200 But those aren't the jobs we're talking about. We're talking 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:20.200 about sledgehammer wielder at construction site. Why and we're talking 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.800 about hotel made or we're talking about restaurant workers at the. 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.959 Why should they have worse job experiences than you have? 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:31.560 Welluse because the market deems them to be less skilled. 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:33.760 That's that's why we just a market has done that 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:37.920 because of the illegal immigration and the massive influx. 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:39.760 Of low skill I would argue, I would argue that's 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:40.880 where the rabbit hole emerges. 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.280 Bat Really, what is interesting about that and what is 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:45.719 kind of revealing about where you've gone with that or 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:50.040 is that you are you represent a strand of conservative 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.120 thinking that is very focused on the well being of workers, 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:55.160 and indeed, your your book was very focused on that 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:57.559 and a critique of a certain what you might call 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:00.800 in the a liberal approach to economics to immigration that 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.360 the administration has promised is one that you are in 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:06.280 principal sympathetic towards. And have you made a case for 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.840 in all the ways that you've just described. But you've 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:13.760 made that case not in the spirit of some of 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.160 the rhetoric of that we might say was kind of 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:20.240 dehumanizing of immigrants or anything else. It's very much focused 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.360 on improving the livelihoods of people here. So I just 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:27.160 wondered if that is one's focus, and if that's the 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.520 thing that one's most concerned about, as opposed to kind 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.080 of dividing Americans from each other or making people kind 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.280 of blame immigrants for everything that's wrong in society. What's 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:37.960 the kind of thing we should be looking for in 0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.040 the administration? What will you be hoping to see the 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:43.320 kinds of policies, you know, for example, cracking down on 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:47.240 employers employing illegal immigrants, give us a guide to the 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:50.640 sort of if you care about workers, what should you 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:54.720 be most wanting to see the president prioritize. 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.880 Well, I think there are a number of directions from 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.480 which we have to come out at this problem, because 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.160 it has been a problem that is fester. It has 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:07.080 festered for a long time. It obviously metastasized under the 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.440 Biden administration. And so one element that I think you 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.200 see is a focus from day one is just actually 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:19.440 stepping up border enforcement, staunching the incoming flow. And that's 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.320 obviously an incredibly important first step. You're not going to 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:27.280 reduce the level of illegal immigration and illegal workers in 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:31.920 America if you still have large numbers coming in. So 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:34.240 I would say that in a sense is step one. 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.280 I think step two, which is where you see the 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.960 Trump administration, then focusing out of the gate, is in 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:45.000 actually enforcing the law in terms of folks who already 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.640 have active deportation orders, in terms of folks who who 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:53.080 are have already been convicted of other crimes, and making 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:56.880 sure that those farks are being removed as the law requires. 0:15:57.600 --> 0:15:59.480 And then step three that I hope we get too 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:04.000 quickly is actually pursuing workplace enforcement, because I think at 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:05.680 the end of the day, where the rubber meets the 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:09.360 road for these labor market issues is in terms of 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.920 how employers behave and whether employers are able to hire 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.080 people who are in the country illegally and not authorized 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:20.840 to work. And so a mandatory everify system, again, which 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:24.240 they've done in Florida to great effect, is a very 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:29.160 important tool that both empowers employers and holds them accountable 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.200 for only employing people who are in the country legally, 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:36.080 and then you need very harsh sanctions against both employers 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:40.200 who fail to use the system properly and against people 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:43.600 who try to work around it and continue to work illegally. 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:45.640 I may be wrong about this, but I just haven't 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.160 heard that the folks who are coming into the administration, 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:51.360 and indeed sort of restoric on the campaign trail in 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.760 previous sort of eras of this discussion. I've definitely heard 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.760 people talk about Everify, and obviously the Florida example was 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:00.880 used a lot. Just haven't heard members of the incoming 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:03.120 administration talk about it very much. Is that just I've 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:04.720 not been listening carefully enough. 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.160 I think it depends who who you're focused on. Vice 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:11.360 President Vance is certainly somebody who has talked a lot 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.399 about this employment side of things and the need for 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.760 enforcement in the labor market. I think you're certainly right 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.720 that President Trump's focus has been first and foremost on 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:24.000 the border and on the deportation of criminals. And that's 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:26.320 what you see them doing out of the gate. But 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:28.400 I think this will be a process over a number 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:31.440 of years, and hopefully we're headed in the right direction. 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:34.440 On the deportation side of it or in right now. 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:38.680 We've had, you know, in the first week, small insignificant 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:40.879 numbers relative to what they say they want to do 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:44.879 the administration around deportation. The number Trump put out on 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:48.560 the campaign trail was eleven million. Do you have a 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:53.320 sense of whether or not different sectors of the economy, 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:58.120 different businesses are really positioned to adapt to a shock 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:04.280 of eleven million people vacating? And yeah, is there a 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.800 number you've like sort of landed on that is acceptable 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:12.720 and taking human rights and those issues off the table 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.639 for this particular discussion. But for example, if you moved 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:19.560 several million people simply into camps and didn't even deport 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:22.560 them right away, what would happen to the construction trades, 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:28.040 What would happen to hotels and restaurants and farms that 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:31.040 all depend on a lot of workers who don't have 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:35.640 criminal records and have wanted to be processed legally. But we, 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:38.520 in addition to having a poorest border, have a horrid 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:42.600 judicial system for processing those migrants in a timely and 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:46.600 effective way. How quickly actually you get a snap back 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.280 to those jobs just being filled right away in a 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:52.200 way that's also cost effective for the businesses themselves. 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.520 Well, I think there are a few things going on here, 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:58.080 but I actually think that the market's ability to adapt 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:01.480 to this very quickly is quite high. You know, I 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.840 would point based on what well, I would point to 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:05.960 two things. One is, I think it's very funny that 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.320 when the economy goes into a recession, let's say you 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:13.919 see employers lay off millions of workers much more quickly, 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:16.960 and everyone just sort of shrugs and says, that's the 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:21.240 business cycle. In fact, we, in fact, we do see 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:25.119 very large swings in the labor market over time and 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:29.240 in very short periods of time in some instances. But 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.320 I also think that the aftermath of COVID is a 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:36.040 good illustration of this, where we had labor market shocks 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:38.560 probably in order of magnitude at least larger than what 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:42.520 we're talking about now. Were there challenges for employers, Were 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:47.080 there times when when there were disruptions in various local markets. Absolutely. 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.400 The government also spend quite a bit of stimulus money 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:54.160 to keep consumer demand high and to keep businesses afloat. 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:58.760 So actually the full effect of those job losses weren't effect, 0:19:58.840 --> 0:19:59.399 weren't felt. 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:02.720 I'm not sure what that has to do with your question, 0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:05.800 which is whether employers could cope with disruptions in the 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:08.320 labor market and workers coming in and out. And the 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:11.320 reality is that in the aftermath of COVID there was 0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:17.000 a dramatic short term shortfall in labor market participation, and 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:22.320 you saw widespread concern about labor shortages and employers complaining 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.880 that they couldn't hire and find anywhere near the workers 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:29.680 they needed. And one thing that happened was that wages 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:31.600 went up a good deal and a lot of people 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:35.560 were brought in off the sidelines. But at the end 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:39.880 of the day, the market is an extraordinarily flexible one. 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:42.240 I mean, let's keep in mind just how many millions 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:46.080 of workers enter and exit the labor market every year anyway. 0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:49.119 And so what I find, again so peculiar is this 0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:52.960 attitude that you know people it's you said, like, oh, 0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:56.880 these people they're just they're waiting to be processed. They 0:20:57.000 --> 0:20:58.840 do not have a right to be in the country. 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:01.679 They crossed the border legally. They know that they crossed 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:03.200 the border illegally. 0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:05.320 Employers wanted them to work for them. 0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:06.600 That makes it legal. 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:09.359 I'm not saying it makes it legal. I'm saying people 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.879 were winking and nodding at the inefficiency of the processing system, 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.199 which I agree with you needs to be fixed. But 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:20.840 they weren't regarded whole cloth as economic balls and chains 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:24.040 or as a pox upon the functioning of the economy. 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:27.080 Yeah, I'm not sure how we decide which laws we 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:29.399 do have to follow in which we don't based on 0:21:29.480 --> 0:21:32.400 why employers want that, again, is not how markets work. 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:36.359 The way that a well functioning market democracy should be 0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:40.280 operating is that we have laws establishing who can enter 0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:44.280 the country under what conditions. We enforce those laws, and 0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:47.399 we expect employers and people trying to immigrate to the 0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:50.080 country to comply with them. And that seems to me 0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:53.960 to be a much better formula for capitalism and broad 0:21:54.000 --> 0:21:58.399 based prosperity than the crazy situation that we've had with 0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:03.000 this sort of vague hand waiving encouragement in recent decades. 0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:05.080 They do have a different status if they're even if 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:08.200 they've crossed the border illegally, if they're seeking asylum, a 0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.720 refugee status. I think that they do have, they're not 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:13.000 I think they're not technically illegal. But can I just 0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:17.639 ask you about the skilled immigration because a lot of 0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:24.399