1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 2: First, I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. 3 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 2: All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: aliens back to the places from which they came Boom. 6 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 3: I'm Stephanie Flander's head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 7 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 3: and this week on Trumpnomics, we're asking how will President 8 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 3: Donald Trump's immigration crackdown affect American workers. Now, as you know, 9 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 3: we usually go to our in house reporters and experts 10 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 3: for our discussion, and this week for the home side, 11 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 3: we do have Tim O'Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion, 12 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 3: back with us, catching up with him in London for 13 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 3: a change, because there weren't enough opinion here in the UK. 14 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: Hello, Tim, it's going to be here seventy. Thank you 15 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: for having me. 16 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: And I'm delighted to also be including Orn cass Oran 17 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 3: is the founder and chief economist of American Compass and 18 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 3: author of The Once and Future Worker, a vision for 19 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 3: the renewal of work in America. He served as Domestic 20 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 3: policy director for Governor Mitt Romney's twenty twelve presidential campaign 21 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 3: and has been senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for 22 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 3: many years, and then his prolific writing and speaking in 23 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 3: support of a more worker centric conservatism, he has definitely 24 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,679 Speaker 3: helped to shape the thinking of Vice President J. D. 25 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 3: Vance and others on what you might call the blue 26 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: collar wing of the mega coalition. Orn Cass Welcome to 27 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 3: Trump Andomics. We're really delighted to have you. 28 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: Oh thank you. 29 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 3: Donald Trump told supporters last week he thought immigration was 30 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 3: what got him elected, even more than the cost of living, 31 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 3: and we've seen him follow through on that in his 32 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 3: first hours as president with a slew of executive actions 33 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 3: that are already having consequences. There are troops down at 34 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 3: the southern border, for example, where he has declared a 35 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: national urgency. Asylum appointments have been canceled, and refugees around 36 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 3: the world have had their travel approvals revoked. So one 37 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 3: way or another, we know that Donald Trump intends to 38 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 3: lower the number of immigrants in the US. There'll be 39 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 3: plenty of discussion in the months ahead of the policies 40 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 3: he's using to do that, whether they're too much or 41 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 3: not nearly enough. But what we're looking at today is 42 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 3: how it will affect the economy, and especially whether it 43 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 3: will be good or bad for American workers. Many businesses 44 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: do fear it will put America's exceptional recent growth and 45 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 3: productivity record at risk and push up inflation. Others take 46 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 3: a more supportive and a certainly more nuanced view of it. 47 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: Welcome to Trumpnomics, the Bloomberg podcast that looks at the 48 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 3: economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the 49 00:02:49,880 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 3: global economy, and what on earth is going to happen next. 50 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 3: There's lots of strands here, but let's start with what 51 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: impact do you think presidence more aggressive approach to illegal 52 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 3: immigration will have on the economy and workers who remain 53 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 3: in the US. 54 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: Well. 55 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 4: I think there will be an immediate effect and a 56 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 4: longer term effect. I think the immediate effect is that 57 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 4: we will start to see the labor market tightening significantly, 58 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 4: especially at the lower end. The reality is that illegal 59 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 4: immigration overwhelmingly goes into the labor market in a set 60 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 4: of low wage sectors, and those happen to be sectors 61 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 4: where working conditions are not very good, where typically we 62 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 4: have not seen significant investments in productivity increases because there 63 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 4: has always been an assumption that we can find illegal 64 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 4: immigrants to do the work, and so as those folks 65 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 4: leave the labor market, what we are going to see 66 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 4: is employers having to offer higher wages and better conditions 67 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 4: to attract the workers that they need, and that will 68 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 4: be a very good thing for workers. I think, probably 69 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 4: even more importantly is the medium to long run effect, 70 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 4: which is a real shift in the expectations of labor 71 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 4: market conditions. We have now been for decades running an 72 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 4: economy where if employers can't find enough cheap labor, they 73 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 4: scream labor shortage, and policy makers are supposed to respond 74 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 4: by providing more cheap labor. And that is not a 75 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 4: formula for economic prosperity. In fact, it is a formula 76 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 4: for the low productivity growth and wage stagnation that we've seen, 77 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 4: and so I expect to see much higher investment in productivity, gains, 78 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 4: in training, in bringing workers off the sidelines, all of 79 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 4: which is what our economy needs and what it should 80 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 4: be doing. 81 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: If you think the short term effect is going to 82 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 3: be to improve working conditions, because employers are forced to 83 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 3: offer more to workers, I mean higher wages, short term 84 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: surely spells higher prices, So you would agree with those 85 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 3: who are worried about the inflationary co consequences. 86 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 4: Well, I think it depends how the higher wages translate 87 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,039 Speaker 4: into prices. One thing you may see, and we've seen 88 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 4: in the past also, is that when you bring in 89 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 4: some of those other workers, when you do offer higher wages, 90 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 4: when you do provide better working conditions, you also get 91 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 4: better productivity. And particularly in a competitive market, we should 92 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 4: expect there to be enormous pressure on employers to actually 93 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 4: find ways to get those productivity gains very quickly and 94 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 4: to keep prices low. I'm always a little bit puzzled 95 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 4: when the exact same folks who celebrate the wonders of 96 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 4: the free market and competitive forces then turn around and 97 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 4: if we're talking about immigration, say you know, oh no, 98 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 4: none of this works. It's all broken, Everything will be terrible. 99 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 4: Businesses are designed to operate under constraints and solve the 100 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 4: problems put in front of them. And the problem is 101 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 4: for our economy we have not put the problem of 102 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 4: provide a good product at a low price with the 103 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 4: workers in America as the problem to solve, And now 104 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 4: that is going to be the problem to solve. And 105 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 4: I'm actually somebody who has a lot of faith in 106 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 4: markets and businesses to solve that problem. It's very funny 107 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 4: to me that the quote free market folks are the 108 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 4: ones who run around with their hair on fires saying 109 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 4: if we actually let the market work, somehow everything's going 110 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 4: to fall apart. 111 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,799 Speaker 3: That was I find, or at least it's sort of ironic. 112 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 3: Is the same people who say that immigration doesn't push 113 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: down wages do insist that reduced immigration will push up prices, 114 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 3: which I don't know it's one way or the other. 115 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: That's right. 116 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 4: I mean, we've gone through several rounds of this, right, 117 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 4: because when inflation was high, of course everybody said, well, 118 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 4: we need to bring in more immigrants to bring down 119 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 4: inflation and to suppress wage growth. And then of course 120 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 4: when inflation is not high, they turn around and say, 121 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 4: well we need to bring in more immigrants. That will 122 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 4: have no effect on wages. I think immigration absolutely does 123 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 4: have an effect on wages. I think it's just important 124 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 4: to recognize that the relationship between wages and prices is 125 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 4: not a direct one, and that in a healthy economy, 126 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 4: higher wages comes alongside higher productivity gains and in fact 127 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 4: lower prices. That is the tradition of capitalism working well 128 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 4: and generating prosperity. 129 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: There is one aspect of the economic research that I 130 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 3: wanted to put to you. I mean, we have a 131 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 3: team of economists here at Bloomberg, and you'll be interested 132 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 3: to hear that we don't think that cutting immigration and 133 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 3: expelling more illegal immigrants will raise inflation. In fact, because 134 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 3: of how much demand they represent, if you have a 135 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 3: lot of deportations, that's going to reduce consumption enough to 136 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 3: we actually think reduce GDP per head and even reduce inflation. 137 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 3: But for the same reason, we do think it will 138 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 3: hurt growth and jobs for everyone. And I don't know 139 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 3: you're probably aware of this, but the studies that have 140 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 3: been done in different counties that have had enhanced deportation programs, 141 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 3: they found that for every hundred migrant workers that was deported, 142 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 3: nine fewer jobs existed for natives because the demand of 143 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 3: those migrant workers was creating jobs for everyone, and the 144 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 3: native workers' wages also fell slightly. So are you not 145 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 3: concerned about that just directly deflationary effect and the possible 146 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 3: reduction and employment. 147 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I think it's very important to 148 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 4: distinguish between overall GDP and GDP per capita, because there's 149 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 4: no question that if you remove people from a population, 150 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 4: absolute GDP is going to decline, at least in the 151 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 4: short run. 152 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 3: There are on our findings is GDP per head I think, 153 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 3: because you're obviously aware of that issue, but this is 154 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 3: also about jobs for the Americans who stay behind as well. 155 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 4: But just to put a fine point on the GDP 156 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 4: per capita point, I'm not familiar with the particular study 157 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 4: that you're citing, but it's really important to keep in 158 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 4: mind also that the illegal immigrants who would be removed 159 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 4: from the labor force tend to be far below the 160 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 4: median GDP per capita, median wage level and so forth, 161 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 4: and so removing a significant number of them from the population, 162 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 4: just as a sheer matter of math, I think it's 163 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 4: extremely unlikely to reduce GDP per capita. I think the 164 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 4: best examples we have of what happens when you actually 165 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 4: enforce the law and remove people who are in the 166 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 4: country illegally is from the places that have actually done 167 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 4: that at scale. And you know, you can go all 168 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 4: the way back to the history of the end of 169 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 4: the Brasero program up through Florida imposing mandatory everify and 170 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 4: enforcing it over the last couple of years. I know 171 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 4: many people who predicted that Florida's economy would suffer as 172 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 4: a result. I don't know anybody who would say Florida's 173 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 4: economy has in fact suffered as a result. 174 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: Or in what lessons you take from Brexit in the 175 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 1: context of looking at other case studies. You know, one 176 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: of the arguments for Brexit, For example, Polish migrants were 177 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: taking farm jobs in Lincolnshire away from native Brits and 178 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: Brexit was imposed and the workers didn't come, and it 179 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: turned out that a lot of native laborers didn't want 180 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: those jobs anyway. So what do you have any lessons 181 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: real world lessons at a national level rather than a 182 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: state level from Brexit in the context of what we're 183 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: discussing about the impact of migration and restrictions. 184 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 4: Well, I don't take any lessons from Brexit in this respect. 185 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 4: I think Brexit was an entirely different context in terms 186 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 4: of both what was going on in the UK beforehand. 187 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 4: I mean, you're talking about very large numbers of legal workers, 188 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 4: and you're talking about a far broader economic Whether you 189 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 4: want to call it a dislocation or a shift in 190 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 4: the economic relationship that the UK had with the rest 191 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 4: of the EU. But I also do want to challenge 192 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 4: this sort of basic framing of somehow jobs that native 193 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 4: workers won't do. I'm not aware of any job that 194 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 4: anybody wants to take that is poorly paid in bad conditions, 195 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: and frankly, I'm aware of many people who will take 196 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 4: just about any job that is well paid in good conditions. 197 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,599 Speaker 4: I'm not sure where we've gotten this idea that employers 198 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 4: are entitled to have workers take jobs that certainly the 199 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 4: employers themselves would not take. And again, it goes back 200 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 4: to this mental model that we've adopted that treats labor 201 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 4: as a commodity input, like it's lumber or steel or something, 202 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 4: and the cheaper and more plentiful it is, the better 203 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 4: off we will be. That's just not true. A key 204 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 4: feature and function of an economy, what we need it 205 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 4: to do, is to create good jobs for native workers 206 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 4: and legal immigrants, and having large numbers of illegal immigrants 207 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 4: makes that harder, and it's not something we should be pursuing. 208 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: I think one of the tricky things right now in 209 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: the discussion is that there are a lot of moving parts, 210 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: and a lot of them are theoretical. And in an 211 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: ideal world, yes, the economy would pay middle class wages 212 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 1: to everyone, so we could have a nation full of 213 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: middle class people. But the reason we don't is that 214 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: some industries thrive on low wage labor by design, and 215 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: there are jobs that some people prefer not to take. 216 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:04,719 Speaker 1: But we could go down a rabbit hole on that. 217 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 4: Well that that's no, I'd like to stay there for them. 218 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 4: That's not a rabbit hole. That's That is the exact 219 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 4: crux of the issue. Yeah, because why on earth should 220 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 4: we accept that some industries are designed to have bad 221 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 4: jobs that workers don't want to do. 222 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 1: I mean, because I think the rabbit hole. The rabbit 223 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: hole would spin off of the ways in which the 224 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 1: wage and price dynamic and labor supply. It is never 225 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: a perfect sphere of factors influencing one another. And and 226 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: the reality is low wage jobs have always existed in 227 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 1: the US that sometimes are at subsistence levels or certainly 228 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: don't provide entry into the middle class. That has been 229 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: a true forever, regardless of the models. 230 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,719 Speaker 3: The other least the social safety net. It was one 231 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 3: of the things that was supposedly one of the strengths 232 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:57,959 Speaker 3: of the US is that had a social safety net 233 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 3: that incentivized people to take to low paid jobs. 234 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 4: Let's take economics editor at Bloomberg as an example. I 235 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 4: don't know of anyone who would be economics editor at 236 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 4: Bloomberg for thirteen dollars an hour sitting on a dusty 237 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 4: crate in a hot field twelve hours a day. 238 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 1: But those aren't the jobs we're talking about. We're talking 239 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 1: about sledgehammer wielder at construction site. Why and we're talking 240 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: about hotel made or we're talking about restaurant workers at the. 241 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,959 Speaker 4: Why should they have worse job experiences than you have? 242 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 1: Welluse because the market deems them to be less skilled. 243 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 4: That's that's why we just a market has done that 244 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 4: because of the illegal immigration and the massive influx. 245 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: Of low skill I would argue, I would argue that's 246 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: where the rabbit hole emerges. 247 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 3: Bat Really, what is interesting about that and what is 248 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 3: kind of revealing about where you've gone with that or 249 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 3: is that you are you represent a strand of conservative 250 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 3: thinking that is very focused on the well being of workers, 251 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 3: and indeed, your your book was very focused on that 252 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,559 Speaker 3: and a critique of a certain what you might call 253 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 3: in the a liberal approach to economics to immigration that 254 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 3: the administration has promised is one that you are in 255 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 3: principal sympathetic towards. And have you made a case for 256 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 3: in all the ways that you've just described. But you've 257 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 3: made that case not in the spirit of some of 258 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 3: the rhetoric of that we might say was kind of 259 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 3: dehumanizing of immigrants or anything else. It's very much focused 260 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 3: on improving the livelihoods of people here. So I just 261 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 3: wondered if that is one's focus, and if that's the 262 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 3: thing that one's most concerned about, as opposed to kind 263 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 3: of dividing Americans from each other or making people kind 264 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 3: of blame immigrants for everything that's wrong in society. What's 265 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 3: the kind of thing we should be looking for in 266 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: the administration? What will you be hoping to see the 267 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 3: kinds of policies, you know, for example, cracking down on 268 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 3: employers employing illegal immigrants, give us a guide to the 269 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 3: sort of if you care about workers, what should you 270 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 3: be most wanting to see the president prioritize. 271 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 4: Well, I think there are a number of directions from 272 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 4: which we have to come out at this problem, because 273 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 4: it has been a problem that is fester. It has 274 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 4: festered for a long time. It obviously metastasized under the 275 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 4: Biden administration. And so one element that I think you 276 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 4: see is a focus from day one is just actually 277 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 4: stepping up border enforcement, staunching the incoming flow. And that's 278 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 4: obviously an incredibly important first step. You're not going to 279 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 4: reduce the level of illegal immigration and illegal workers in 280 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 4: America if you still have large numbers coming in. So 281 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 4: I would say that in a sense is step one. 282 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 4: I think step two, which is where you see the 283 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 4: Trump administration, then focusing out of the gate, is in 284 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 4: actually enforcing the law in terms of folks who already 285 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 4: have active deportation orders, in terms of folks who who 286 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 4: are have already been convicted of other crimes, and making 287 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 4: sure that those farks are being removed as the law requires. 288 00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 4: And then step three that I hope we get too 289 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 4: quickly is actually pursuing workplace enforcement, because I think at 290 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 4: the end of the day, where the rubber meets the 291 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 4: road for these labor market issues is in terms of 292 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 4: how employers behave and whether employers are able to hire 293 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 4: people who are in the country illegally and not authorized 294 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 4: to work. And so a mandatory everify system, again, which 295 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 4: they've done in Florida to great effect, is a very 296 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 4: important tool that both empowers employers and holds them accountable 297 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 4: for only employing people who are in the country legally, 298 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 4: and then you need very harsh sanctions against both employers 299 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 4: who fail to use the system properly and against people 300 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 4: who try to work around it and continue to work illegally. 301 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 3: I may be wrong about this, but I just haven't 302 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 3: heard that the folks who are coming into the administration, 303 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: and indeed sort of restoric on the campaign trail in 304 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 3: previous sort of eras of this discussion. I've definitely heard 305 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 3: people talk about Everify, and obviously the Florida example was 306 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 3: used a lot. Just haven't heard members of the incoming 307 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 3: administration talk about it very much. Is that just I've 308 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 3: not been listening carefully enough. 309 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 4: I think it depends who who you're focused on. Vice 310 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 4: President Vance is certainly somebody who has talked a lot 311 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,399 Speaker 4: about this employment side of things and the need for 312 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 4: enforcement in the labor market. I think you're certainly right 313 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 4: that President Trump's focus has been first and foremost on 314 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 4: the border and on the deportation of criminals. And that's 315 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 4: what you see them doing out of the gate. But 316 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,400 Speaker 4: I think this will be a process over a number 317 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 4: of years, and hopefully we're headed in the right direction. 318 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 1: On the deportation side of it or in right now. 319 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: We've had, you know, in the first week, small insignificant 320 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 1: numbers relative to what they say they want to do 321 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: the administration around deportation. The number Trump put out on 322 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 1: the campaign trail was eleven million. Do you have a 323 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: sense of whether or not different sectors of the economy, 324 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 1: different businesses are really positioned to adapt to a shock 325 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: of eleven million people vacating? And yeah, is there a 326 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: number you've like sort of landed on that is acceptable 327 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: and taking human rights and those issues off the table 328 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: for this particular discussion. But for example, if you moved 329 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: several million people simply into camps and didn't even deport 330 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: them right away, what would happen to the construction trades, 331 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: What would happen to hotels and restaurants and farms that 332 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: all depend on a lot of workers who don't have 333 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 1: criminal records and have wanted to be processed legally. But we, 334 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: in addition to having a poorest border, have a horrid 335 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: judicial system for processing those migrants in a timely and 336 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: effective way. How quickly actually you get a snap back 337 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: to those jobs just being filled right away in a 338 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: way that's also cost effective for the businesses themselves. 339 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 4: Well, I think there are a few things going on here, 340 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 4: but I actually think that the market's ability to adapt 341 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 4: to this very quickly is quite high. You know, I 342 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 4: would point based on what well, I would point to 343 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 4: two things. One is, I think it's very funny that 344 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 4: when the economy goes into a recession, let's say you 345 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 4: see employers lay off millions of workers much more quickly, 346 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 4: and everyone just sort of shrugs and says, that's the 347 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 4: business cycle. In fact, we, in fact, we do see 348 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 4: very large swings in the labor market over time and 349 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 4: in very short periods of time in some instances. But 350 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 4: I also think that the aftermath of COVID is a 351 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 4: good illustration of this, where we had labor market shocks 352 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 4: probably in order of magnitude at least larger than what 353 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 4: we're talking about now. Were there challenges for employers, Were 354 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 4: there times when when there were disruptions in various local markets. Absolutely. 355 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 1: The government also spend quite a bit of stimulus money 356 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: to keep consumer demand high and to keep businesses afloat. 357 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: So actually the full effect of those job losses weren't effect, 358 00:19:58,840 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: weren't felt. 359 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 4: I'm not sure what that has to do with your question, 360 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 4: which is whether employers could cope with disruptions in the 361 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 4: labor market and workers coming in and out. And the 362 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 4: reality is that in the aftermath of COVID there was 363 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 4: a dramatic short term shortfall in labor market participation, and 364 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 4: you saw widespread concern about labor shortages and employers complaining 365 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 4: that they couldn't hire and find anywhere near the workers 366 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 4: they needed. And one thing that happened was that wages 367 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 4: went up a good deal and a lot of people 368 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 4: were brought in off the sidelines. But at the end 369 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 4: of the day, the market is an extraordinarily flexible one. 370 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 4: I mean, let's keep in mind just how many millions 371 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 4: of workers enter and exit the labor market every year anyway. 372 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 4: And so what I find, again so peculiar is this 373 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 4: attitude that you know people it's you said, like, oh, 374 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,880 Speaker 4: these people they're just they're waiting to be processed. They 375 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 4: do not have a right to be in the country. 376 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 4: They crossed the border legally. They know that they crossed 377 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 4: the border illegally. 378 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: Employers wanted them to work for them. 379 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 4: That makes it legal. 380 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,359 Speaker 1: I'm not saying it makes it legal. I'm saying people 381 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 1: were winking and nodding at the inefficiency of the processing system, 382 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,199 Speaker 1: which I agree with you needs to be fixed. But 383 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: they weren't regarded whole cloth as economic balls and chains 384 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: or as a pox upon the functioning of the economy. 385 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure how we decide which laws we 386 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 4: do have to follow in which we don't based on 387 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 4: why employers want that, again, is not how markets work. 388 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 4: The way that a well functioning market democracy should be 389 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 4: operating is that we have laws establishing who can enter 390 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 4: the country under what conditions. We enforce those laws, and 391 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 4: we expect employers and people trying to immigrate to the 392 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 4: country to comply with them. And that seems to me 393 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 4: to be a much better formula for capitalism and broad 394 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 4: based prosperity than the crazy situation that we've had with 395 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 4: this sort of vague hand waiving encouragement in recent decades. 396 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 3: They do have a different status if they're even if 397 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 3: they've crossed the border illegally, if they're seeking asylum, a 398 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 3: refugee status. I think that they do have, they're not 399 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 3: I think they're not technically illegal. But can I just 400 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 3: ask you about the skilled immigration because a lot of 401 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 3: evidence around US innovation, the production of patents, and contribution 402 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,400 Speaker 3: to the productivity of companies has shown that you get 403 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 3: very good return on your investment from a lot of 404 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 3: skilled immigrants that we've had, and that seems particularly front 405 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 3: and center at the moment when you think of the 406 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 3: aggressive competition with China, that the administration has called for 407 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 3: an investment in AI and all these things. A colleague 408 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 3: was pointing out to me the Ohio State Dashboard of 409 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 3: engineering enrollment. Half of the students who are applying for 410 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 3: graduate degrees in engineering are international. Are you on the 411 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 3: Elon Musk side of the argument when it comes to 412 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,680 Speaker 3: some of those skilled vas or are you worried about 413 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 3: the impact of that immigration for workers at home. 414 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 4: Well, I think you've just blurred a few issues together there. 415 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 4: I don't know of anyone, frankly, who is saying that 416 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 4: we should not have skilled immigration. And obviously, we have 417 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 4: always had an immigration system that brings large numbers of 418 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 4: people into the country legally every year, and I think 419 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 4: reorienting that toward focusing on people with highly valuable skills 420 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 4: who are likely to succeed in the US economy is 421 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 4: exactly the way to make that system work well. The 422 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 4: question of temporary visas like H one B is entirely different, 423 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 4: and even Elon Musk has conceded the H one B 424 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 4: program is poorly structured and widely abused. And so I 425 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 4: don't think the temporary visa programs the way that we 426 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 4: are operating them at all achieve those very important benefits 427 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 4: that you were describing. I think they are yet another 428 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 4: way that employers have found to gain the system and 429 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 4: create lower quality jobs at lower wages. 430 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 3: Would you want to see that skilled immigration, the more 431 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 3: permanent immigration go down over the course of the next 432 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 3: few years in this new environment. 433 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:14,159 Speaker 1: No. 434 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 4: What I would like to see is US actually get 435 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 4: the system under control so that immigration is limited to 436 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 4: legal immigration, and we then use our level of legal 437 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 4: immigration to focus on bringing in those who will make 438 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 4: the greatest contributions to the country. 439 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,239 Speaker 3: Or and Cass, thank you very much for joining us. 440 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: It was my pleasure. 441 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 4: Thank you. 442 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 3: I appreciate your patience as we go through all these 443 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 3: questions on immigration, and that there clearly is a very 444 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 3: wide agenda here which we'll be looking at sort of 445 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 3: week to week. Thanks for listening to Trump Andomics from Bloomberg. 446 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,359 Speaker 3: It was hosted by me Stephanie Flanders, with special thanks 447 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 3: to our guests Orncass and Tim O'Brien. Trump and Noomics 448 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 3: is produced by Summer Saudi and Most and with help 449 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 3: from Chris Martlou. Sound designed by Blake Maples. Brendan Francis 450 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 3: Newnham is our executive producer. To help others find the show, 451 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 3: please give us five stars wherever you listen to podcasts