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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus podcast podcast Poda.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go fifteen Conny twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as Black Look College Football World Stunde.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, please stumbled the football, the lateral turn,

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Speaker 3: the counter of the ad job.

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Speaker 4: Can't you believe I came him off the field to night.

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Speaker 5: It's not the side of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 5: It's the side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Big Bets on Campus. This is the Group

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Speaker 2: of five Deep Dive. I'm your host, Mike Calvarys. I

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Speaker 2: am joined by my wingman, the Bailey zapfy to my

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Speaker 2: Matt Riza. Of course, I'm talking about Mike Ianello. And

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Speaker 2: we have another special guest he puts the WU in

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Speaker 2: pig suy. That is Colin Wilson of Action Network Fame. Guys,

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Speaker 2: how you doing.

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Speaker 4: Good, good, well? Glad to be back a mine as

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Speaker 4: cool location as Colin. But I'm happy to be happy.

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Speaker 5: To be here, guys. I'm happy to be here on

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Speaker 5: the sun Belt.

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Speaker 1: This is one of my favorite conferences in the G five.

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Speaker 1: And you guys doing great job. So hopefully I can

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Speaker 1: help out but you know, I thought the highlight of

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Speaker 1: my day was going to be rising Brett Bielama up

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Speaker 1: on the podium here in Big ten media days. Turns

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Speaker 1: out talking about James Madison, Old Dominion, a little bit.

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Speaker 5: Of sun fun Belt action here is going to be

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Speaker 5: the highlight of my day.

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Speaker 4: Don't let the latest come between you and the book.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, going ahead, getting into the realignments, you know, nonsense

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Speaker 2: that's really kind of not allowed any of us to

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Speaker 2: get a moment's rest, you know during the off season

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Speaker 2: with all the major powers moving around. The Sun Belt

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Speaker 2: is just fortifying the southern region of the United States,

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Speaker 2: you know, adding Old Dominion eight, adding James Madison Southern

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Speaker 2: mess and then Marshall, who's kind of been you know,

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Speaker 2: the Thundering Herd had been looking for a home, wandering

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Speaker 2: the land escape for years from the Mac to Comfort

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Speaker 2: to USA. Now in the Sun Belt, kind of rekindling

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Speaker 2: some old FCS rivalries. A very exciting time to be

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Speaker 2: follow on the belt. So what we're gonna do is

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Speaker 2: we're gonna jump right in. We're gonna go east and west.

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Speaker 2: The East has been as dominant as really the Big

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Speaker 2: ten East, you know, to bring it back to Collins

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Speaker 2: current location, so we're gonna start there. We're gonna start

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Speaker 2: with Appalachian State. I'm going to run you through each

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Speaker 2: team here in the East their odds to win the

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Speaker 2: Sun Belt as well as their win total. So Appalachian

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Speaker 2: State five to two to win the whole thing, nine

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Speaker 2: wins set as they're over under for wins for the season.

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Speaker 2: S and P Plus has them projected as the fifty

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Speaker 2: first best offense, sixty sixth best defense, and there's a

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Speaker 2: lot to like about them. A veteran returning backfield, offensive

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Speaker 2: line is in good shape, new weapons on the perimeter.

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Speaker 2: They do lose to Marco Jackson and Sean Jolly from

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Speaker 2: a very good defense, but they have a lot of

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Speaker 2: talent on that side of the wall. Sean Clark has

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Speaker 2: built them into a consistent winning program twenty and seven

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Speaker 2: across the last three years. And what I love about

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Speaker 2: this team in particular, it starts with North Carolina at

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Speaker 2: Kid Brewer. To have an opportunity to play a five

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Speaker 2: program and to kick your season off right before traveling

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Speaker 2: to Kyle Field and work week two against A and M.

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Speaker 2: When either of those games and the sky is the

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Speaker 2: limit for Apple Aachian state. Let's start there quickly. What

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the Knears this year?

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Speaker 4: The low Yeah, like you said, I think they lose

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Speaker 4: those pieces on defense, but you know they're going to

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Speaker 4: run through run through Cameron People's in Natoel Again. I

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Speaker 4: think with those two back, I expect the offense to

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Speaker 4: be very similar. Chase Bryce is a veteran. We had

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Speaker 4: a lot of uncertainty with him last year, but he

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Speaker 4: kind of cleaned up the turnover issues he had at Duke.

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Speaker 4: Like you said, I think you know there that schedule

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Speaker 4: is going to be the biggest issues. The unc tex

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Speaker 4: A and M is a tough start, but they're apt stay.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think you can almost pencil him in

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Speaker 4: for the Sun Belt Championship every year. We'll kind of

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Speaker 4: get into it, you know, a little sneak preview, just

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Speaker 4: to touch on with Colin. Where Colin is right now.

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Speaker 4: I'm getting some big ten vibes from the sun Belt

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Speaker 4: this year because the Sunbelt East is a wagon and

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Speaker 4: then the sunblt went is like Louisiana is just going

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Speaker 4: to be the Wisconsin and just why I think you

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Speaker 4: can make an argument app state Coastal Georgia State, Marshall

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Speaker 4: are all better than Louisiana.

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Speaker 5: I'll go ahead and jump in on app State. I

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Speaker 5: mean there.

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Speaker 1: I had a problem with the Chase Brice transfer when

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Speaker 1: he first came in, and my issue with that was

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Speaker 1: that he didn't have mobile legs Zach Thomas set up.

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Speaker 1: No matter if it was Eli Drinkwitz, it doesn't matter

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Speaker 1: who the head coach has been there for for the

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Speaker 1: recent years. Even with Sean Clark taking over it, they

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Speaker 1: weren't going to change who they were on offense. But

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Speaker 1: that included a lot of Zach Thomas running the ball

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Speaker 1: over the field. We were shown last year that Chase

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Speaker 1: Brice is not a mobile quarterback. He is not near

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Speaker 1: as nimble out outside the tackles, and I think you

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Speaker 1: saw some of those struggles last year. This year we

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Speaker 1: talked about them losing pieces on defense. Just thirty six

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Speaker 1: percent comes back to a unit that was twelve in

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Speaker 1: success rate in twenty second finishing drives. But they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to lean on cornerback Stephen Jones on linebacker Nick

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Speaker 1: Hampton to really get things done here. And you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of echo what you guys are saying this East

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Speaker 1: Division is is that I mean that's where the action

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Speaker 1: is going to be this year. There are some loaded teams,

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Speaker 1: and from a scheduling perspective with Apps State, there's no

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Speaker 1: Louisiana from.

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Speaker 5: The other side.

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Speaker 1: You know, they have Southern Miss from the west. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's going to be an easy game. They've

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Speaker 1: played Troy, after they played Texas A and M. What's

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Speaker 1: the health of app State going to be after that?

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Speaker 1: And then at Marshall and at Coastal to decide the

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Speaker 1: East that I think this is more challenging than just saying,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think app State it's going to be

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Speaker 1: in the championship game, so we'll see.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Gun to my head, I think the numbers spot on

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Speaker 2: at nine. I don't really see value. If I were

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Speaker 2: to play it, I'd probably go under, just based on

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Speaker 2: how strong the East is and drawing every single team

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Speaker 2: out of that portion. Transitioning to Coastal, you know, they're

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Speaker 2: plus three fifty to win the belts eight wins as

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Speaker 2: they're over under. You look at the last two years

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Speaker 2: with Grace McCall leading the way twenty two and three

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Speaker 2: as the starter, and I loved what he did in

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Speaker 2: the offseason. He didn't mess around didn't flirt with the draft.

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Speaker 2: All that must much puts out that graphic design presentation card,

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Speaker 2: says ipissed Teal, I'm coming back to Conway. Unfortunately, coming

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Speaker 2: back to Conwy a little bit like that fresh Prince

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Speaker 2: of bel a Er gift where the first Princes in

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Speaker 2: his living room and no one else is there. Because

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Speaker 2: they lose so much from a team that the nation

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Speaker 2: really got familiar with over the last two seasons. But

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Speaker 2: McCall is good enough that you have to imagine that

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Speaker 2: he's going to be able to elevate a lot of

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Speaker 2: new playmakers around him. Highest rated passer nationally last year.

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Speaker 2: Runs a very complex offense. I think we made the

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Speaker 2: joke before if you've ever played mad in their NCAA.

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Speaker 2: There's those options to do the global playbook, there's triple

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Speaker 2: option elements, there's spread elements. He's sometimes under center. They

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Speaker 2: do so much and he makes it all go that

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Speaker 2: it's still a very difficult offense to prepare for. He

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Speaker 2: also led the nation in ESPN's raw QBR so with

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Speaker 2: so much to like about him, fifty three passing touchdowns

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Speaker 2: to just six picks across the last two years. That

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Speaker 2: seems like a typo. It's incredible, but if I'm being honest,

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Speaker 2: the plus three fifty is not enticing. When you look

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Speaker 2: at the SMP plus. They are a top twenty five offense,

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Speaker 2: ranked twenty third by Bill Connley nationally, but one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninth on the defensive side of the ball. I

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Speaker 2: realize that a lot of that has to do with

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Speaker 2: the the new faces and new places, but this should

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Speaker 2: be a staff continuity wise, it's the same coordinators as

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Speaker 2: the same head coach. What are your thoughts, I'll go

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Speaker 2: to you first, Colin on Coastal replacing so many key

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Speaker 2: positions and playmakers that have been there and reliable in

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Speaker 2: the last two years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with Coastal Carolina, a team that has made Action

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Speaker 1: Network all of us a lot of money and we

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Speaker 1: love them so much. And Grayson McCall coming back and

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Speaker 1: not hitting the portal was actually a little bit shocking

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Speaker 1: to me because knowing that they were just going to

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Speaker 1: return less than sixty percent on offense and only forty

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Speaker 1: seven percent from a tart perspective on defense, you know,

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Speaker 1: I was a little surprised that he came back. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think the one thing I should say about that,

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Speaker 1: I don't even know what we're naming in Calgary's I mean,

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Speaker 1: we go into madd and we pick our offenses. Is

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Speaker 1: a diamond triple option in space speed space. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what we're calling the offense, but he runs it

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Speaker 1: perfectly to a t. And the biggest indicator about teams

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Speaker 1: that cover the spread is finishing drives because coordinators no

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Speaker 1: longer care about what's happening at the forty and the

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Speaker 1: fifty yard line. They just want to firm up when

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Speaker 1: opponents get close. Coastal Carolina number one in the nation

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Speaker 1: last year in offensive finishing drives. There's a flip side

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Speaker 1: to that ninety third in defensive finishing drive So it's

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Speaker 1: you know, is one of those Are either of those

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Speaker 1: going to regress and come back to the pack. I know,

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Speaker 1: if you read Phil Steele, you'll see like maybe seven

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Speaker 1: returning starters, and you know they surely have lost a

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Speaker 1: lot for a complex system. But you know, Jamie Chadwell

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Speaker 1: is still the head coach, Grayson McCall is still there.

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Speaker 1: From a scheduling perspective, I don't like Coastal just for

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Speaker 1: this reason alone. You're gonna play app State five days

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Speaker 1: after you played Marshall, and then you're gonna play Southern

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Speaker 1: Miss at home after that.

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Speaker 5: That is a.

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Speaker 1: Brutal stretch of not even within just a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: That schedule tells me. I know Louisiana is not coming

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Speaker 1: over the west, but that little stretch is really tough

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Speaker 1: for a coastal team to get through. So definitely probably

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Speaker 1: not my pick to get through on the East.

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Speaker 2: I'll just hop in here quickly. I love that Colin

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Speaker 2: keeps peppering in Southern Mess because when it comes to

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Speaker 2: betting the Sunbelt, I really like the teams that appear

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Speaker 2: to be the dregs, the teams that people are looking,

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Speaker 2: you know, the average gamblers looking at their twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: one record and saying, I'm absolutely auto fading this team.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of tricky teams that are

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Speaker 2: now healthy. Some had scholarship issues, they're they're finally up

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Speaker 2: to full strength this season. So we'll get into that

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Speaker 2: a little bit later. I know, do you have a

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Speaker 2: play either way on the shots here?

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Speaker 4: Now? I'm with you, guys. I'm off on them both

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Speaker 4: from a win total and a future's perspective. I know,

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Speaker 4: obviously McCall's the story. I think, I it'd be hard

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Speaker 4: to argue that he's not the best player in the

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Speaker 4: group of five, but he's going to have to do

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Speaker 4: it alone. He lost, you know, his running back, all

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Speaker 4: of his receivers, their defense, you know, depending where you look,

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Speaker 4: returns two starters. Granted, those two are nasty with you know,

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Speaker 4: Jordan Strong and Josiah Stewart was a free last year.

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Speaker 4: But their schedule, they're not con is easy, so that

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Speaker 4: kind of helps them at least ease some guys into

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Speaker 4: playing time. But I love so many teams from this

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Speaker 4: division this year, and to me, Coastal's just I think

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Speaker 4: they take a step back. I don't think they'll be

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Speaker 4: you know, they were eleven to two last year. They

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Speaker 4: lost to app State in Georgia State, who I think

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Speaker 4: both are probably better, if not equal, and I think

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Speaker 4: Coachal takes a step back. So I'm staying away from

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Speaker 4: from pretty much any betting perspective.

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Speaker 2: We started at the top talking about some of the

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Speaker 2: new bees here in the Sun Belt. We now get

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Speaker 2: to Marshall there plus four fifty to win the Sun

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Speaker 2: Belt seven and a half wins. As they're over under,

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Speaker 2: you got to pay a little extra Juice minus one

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Speaker 2: twenty if you want to go over there, pretty balanced

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Speaker 2: according to Bill Conley's sixty second in projected offensive efficiency,

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Speaker 2: sixty fourth on the defensive side of the ball. Well,

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Speaker 2: we know for sure they have an amazing backfield. Rashine

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Speaker 2: not Lee is an incredible workhorse. But now they bring

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Speaker 2: in Klan Layborne from Florida State to transfer. Who if

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Speaker 2: he's finally healthy, talk about a change of pace that

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Speaker 2: could really be a difference maker for Marshall. They still

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Speaker 2: have great perimeter weapons. Henry Colombie coming in as a transfer.

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Speaker 2: Can he be the marsh Marshall's version of Chase Brice?

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Speaker 2: Could he even be better than that? Because honestly, you

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Speaker 2: know they're probably banking on some better balance offensively. Clint

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Speaker 2: Trickett coming in as the passing game coordinator, it would

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Speaker 2: seem as though maybe they can adjust by let's say,

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Speaker 2: five to ten percent run pass balance. If they do that,

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Speaker 2: is Marshall good enough to upset the cart here take

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Speaker 2: a lot of the established players in the East and

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Speaker 2: end up in the conference, you know, the SANTELP Championship game.

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Speaker 2: I think that they can And this is the first

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Speaker 2: number that finally grabbed me a little bit. I'm interested.

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Speaker 2: If you shop around, you can get even better in

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Speaker 2: terms of value. Coase to five to one. So if

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Speaker 2: you can get five to one, I would recommend snapping

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Speaker 2: that up.

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Speaker 5: Colin.

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Speaker 2: Where you on the Thundering Herd.

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Speaker 5: I am pro thundering Herd.

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Speaker 1: I love Charles off as her head coach. This is

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Speaker 1: a team that you know you would expect reggression. Last

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Speaker 1: year with him coming in as head coach. They finished

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Speaker 1: top thirty five and success rate finishing drives and they

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Speaker 1: were twenty second havoc allowed.

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Speaker 5: And why is havoc allowed important?

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Speaker 1: Because that means your offensive line is keeping guys off

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Speaker 1: of your quarterback, and it means that they're not fumbling

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Speaker 1: the ball. If you're going to make wagers, you're going

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Speaker 1: to want to put it on offenses that you can

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Speaker 1: trust not to you know, chuck the.

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Speaker 5: Ball around and drop it on the carpet.

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Speaker 1: You want to avoid the big boys in the crossover schedule.

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Speaker 1: You know they host mar Coastal on homecoming. That's a

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Speaker 1: really big game. That never underestimate how bit much Marshall

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Speaker 1: is going to show up on homecoming. Three consecutive road

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Speaker 1: games in September with Notre Dame, Bowling Green and Troy.

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Speaker 5: And I'm not going to go on a rant about

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Speaker 5: how Bowling.

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Speaker 1: Green's better they are, but you know, three consecutive road

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Speaker 1: games is going to have these guys battle Tesson. I

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Speaker 1: like their win total over they can reproduce what they

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Speaker 1: did and a conference last year that I think had

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Speaker 1: better competition than what they're going to face this year.

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Speaker 2: I certainly agree. I think I was even talked into,

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Speaker 2: just in terms of that explanation, maybe putting a little

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Speaker 2: bit more weight behind the win total as opposed to

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Speaker 2: the four and a half five to one on the

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Speaker 2: Conference USA championship.

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Speaker 4: I love Marshall. I love their win total over seven

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Speaker 4: draftings said Marshall plus five point fifty to win the

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Speaker 4: Sun Belt. I love that value. I think Marshall is

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Speaker 4: absolutely a competitor in this new Sumbelt. You know we

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Speaker 4: talked about you talked about Henry Columby coming over. That

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Speaker 4: might be an upgrade over Grant Wells. He was such

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Speaker 4: as stud his freshman year, and he was so frustratingly

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Speaker 4: bad last year. Thirteen interceptions, just sixteen picks. He kind

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Speaker 4: of had this, you know, chuck it around blindly and

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Speaker 4: you mentioned Rashine Ali when you have you know, he

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Speaker 4: led the country in touchdowns. Give him the ball every play.

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Speaker 4: Charlestoff obviously terrific running backs coach Penn State. You know

301
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Speaker 4: Barkley Sanders, they went over to Alabama and Najee Harris.

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Speaker 4: You give Rashin Alive the ball as much as possible

303
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Speaker 4: when they do throw it. Corey Gammage is back. That's huge. Defensively,

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Speaker 4: they were really good against the pass last year. They

305
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Speaker 4: bring back Steven Gilmore, who's at all conference to say cornerback,

306
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Speaker 4: and their biggest weakness last year was they were horrific

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Speaker 4: against the run. I know we talked about this and

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Speaker 4: we did our G five New Year six draft. I

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Speaker 4: took Marshall in that and one of the biggest reasons

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Speaker 4: I liked them to improve that was Charlestoff went out

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Speaker 4: and brought in Quinn Williams from Miami, Isaiah Gibson from Kentucky,

312
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Speaker 4: and Anthony Watts from Purdue. All are over three hundred pounds.

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Speaker 4: He's like, hey, we got torched against the run. Let's

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Speaker 4: get these power five beefcakes. Throw them in the middle

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Speaker 4: like Gilmore, roam in the back end. Colin mentioned the

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Speaker 4: non con They they do draw Louisiana, but they get

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Speaker 4: Louisiana app State Coastal. All at home and coming into

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Speaker 4: a new conference, you know that that injects some life

319
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Speaker 4: into the fan. Marshall always has a great fan base.

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Speaker 4: I'm only on Marshall. So I'm taking the plus five

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Speaker 4: fifty to win the Sunbelt.

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Speaker 2: All right, We've got to discuss quote unquote, you know,

323
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Speaker 2: the three leaders, maybe the cream of the crop. Maybe

324
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Speaker 2: we could extend it to this next team. Georgia State

325
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Speaker 2: tend to one to win the conference six and a

326
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Speaker 2: half as their win total for the season, minus one

327
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Speaker 2: twenty to the over seventy eighth in protected offensive efficiency,

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Speaker 2: sixty eighth on defense. Listen, this is the little program

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Speaker 2: that could. They won seven of eight down the stretch

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Speaker 2: last season. They murdered ball, stayed in the bowl game.

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Speaker 2: Sean Elliott has sent the Panthers to three straight ball

332
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Speaker 2: games and was six and two in the Sun Belt

333
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Speaker 2: last year. So I understand that, you know, just their

334
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Speaker 2: geography where they are in the Sun Belt hurts them.

335
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Speaker 2: But when you look at what they accomplished last season,

336
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Speaker 2: what they bring back. Darren Grainger in particular, the firm

337
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Speaker 2: and transfer was a really nice dual threat who took

338
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Speaker 2: care of the football last season. I this is a

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Speaker 2: team I'm pulling for, and certainly if I'm going to

340
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Speaker 2: be holding futures tickets on either Marshall or app State,

341
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Speaker 2: you know ahead of them. This is a team that

342
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Speaker 2: scares me. Where do you come down on what Elliott

343
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Speaker 2: has been able to build in Atlanta? And I'm actually

344
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Speaker 2: colin it'd be interested in your perspective here. I'm surprised

345
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Speaker 2: that Georgia State's been able to retain his services.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how he hasn't been taking a

347
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Speaker 1: moving up, but maybe the right position hasn't come in.

348
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Speaker 1: There are a couple of coaches there are still in

349
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Speaker 1: G five and I still wonder why they're still there.

350
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Speaker 1: Hopefully a few more of these media day trips, I'll

351
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Speaker 1: figure out why they're still in the same place. Georgia

352
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Speaker 1: State is my most favorite win total to the over

353
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Speaker 1: of any team in this division. They return eighty three

354
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Speaker 1: percent on the offensive side of the ball eighty percent

355
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Speaker 1: on the defensive side of the ball. I mentioned the

356
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Speaker 1: most important things when it comes to covering a spread,

357
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Speaker 1: and that is finishing drives Georgia State fourteenth in the

358
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Speaker 1: nation of getting it Indian Zone once their drives went

359
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Speaker 1: past the forty yard line on defense, top forty in

360
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Speaker 1: every category.

361
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Speaker 5: Havoc be she drives success. Right.

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Speaker 1: So we have all the numbers there, we're returning all

363
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Speaker 1: the players here, but let's go take a look at

364
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Speaker 1: the schedule. Holy cow, no Louisiana and cross play, No

365
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Speaker 1: Troy and cross play, No South Alabama and cross play.

366
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Speaker 5: The reason I'm not taking a division.

367
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Speaker 1: Or conference future on these guys is because we have

368
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Speaker 1: games at Southern Miss at Marshall and you know, and

369
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Speaker 1: Adapts State, and that's just really tough. You're gonna win

370
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Speaker 1: the Sun Belt, You're gonna have to win all of

371
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Speaker 1: the toughest games on your schedule on the road. I

372
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Speaker 1: think this is a much This is my favorite win

373
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Speaker 1: total to go over, but not so much from taking

374
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Speaker 1: a division or conference futures perspective.

375
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Speaker 2: And Ela, where are you on the Panthers here?

376
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Speaker 4: Could not agree with Colin Moore And I am going

377
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Speaker 4: to be me and Colin are going to be praying

378
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Speaker 4: we get Duke tase Brice again because I hate that

379
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 4: they're in the same division. I love Georgia State. I

380
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 4: love Darren Granger. They went eight and two once he

381
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Speaker 4: took over as quarterback from Quad Brown. And you know,

382
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 4: they bring back their two stud belcow running backs, Tucker

383
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Speaker 4: greg and Jamius Williams. Jamis Williams was a cornerbacks he

384
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 4: was all freshmen SEC at South Carolina. Now he's their

385
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 4: running back. Each of them had over eight hundred and

386
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Speaker 4: fifty yards. Both of them scored nine touchdowns on the ground.

387
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Speaker 4: They do lose OC Brad Brad Glenn to Virginia Tech,

388
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Speaker 4: but they just elevated Trent McKnight, who was their wide

389
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,360
Speaker 4: receivers coach, so he had family eder with the team.

390
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,439
Speaker 4: I don't think he'll drop off. They're not changing the offense,

391
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,080
Speaker 4: not doing anything like that. Their defense was good last year,

392
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,920
Speaker 4: brings back a time and Tavius Lane is awesome as

393
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Speaker 4: their safety. And like Conn said, I think the schedule

394
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Speaker 4: kind of breaks nice for them. They do start out

395
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Speaker 4: with South Carolina and North Carolina, so that's kind of,

396
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Speaker 4: you know, not the best. They might start owing too,

397
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Speaker 4: but I'm all in on Georgia State and I might

398
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 4: just throw features on Georgia State and Marshall and just

399
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Speaker 4: hope to God app State sucks. I guess I'm already

400
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 4: kind of down on Coastal anyway, So we need we

401
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 4: need Duke Chase Bryce and then I'll just cross my

402
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,960
Speaker 4: fingers on the Georgia State Marshall game and hopefully the

403
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Speaker 4: winner that wins the conference.

404
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Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned the South Carolina and North Carolina

405
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 2: two step there to be in the season because as

406
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Speaker 2: a gambler, I'm praying that they lose both of those

407
00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 2: games so that you know, John Q public says, well,

408
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,680
Speaker 2: Georgia State's a middling Sun Belt team. They stink. I'm

409
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 2: going to write them off for the rest of the year,

410
00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 2: maybe get a few extra points baked into some point

411
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 2: spreads because people just you know, are trying to bail

412
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Speaker 2: themselves out by betting against quote unquote bad teams.

413
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Speaker 4: So that September twenty second their home again, they host

414
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Speaker 4: Coastal and that'll be a pretty sizeable bet on the Panthers.

415
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 2: Fantastic. All right, Let's turn now to Old Dominion, a

416
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,200
Speaker 2: team that's ill O was close to his heart. They

417
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,680
Speaker 2: walk in here fifty to one to win the Sun

418
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:21,359
Speaker 2: Belt four and a half. I was a little bit surprised.

419
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 2: I thought I was a little bit low. I think

420
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 2: goes over at bet MGM minus one twenty to the

421
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 2: over identical ninety third in terms of projected efficiency on

422
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. And listen, last year kind

423
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 2: of played out exactly as we anticipated. They had a

424
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 2: COVID year where they sat out, They get off to

425
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,719
Speaker 2: a slow start, but then just kind of out of nowhere,

426
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,680
Speaker 2: they win five in a row to make a Bowl game.

427
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 2: Hayden Wolf, Blake Watson, Zach kuns like they have a

428
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 2: lot of firepower. But I think it's interesting for two reasons. One,

429
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,320
Speaker 2: is Wolf even the right guy in this offense because

430
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 2: Brendan Clark, the Notre Dame transfer, He's a dual threat guy.

431
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 2: There hasn't been a whole lot of buzz that he's

432
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 2: going to seal this job away. But why would you

433
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 2: stick with Wolf, who really struggled in that Bowl game

434
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 2: against Tulsa when the ceiling could be so much higher

435
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,399
Speaker 2: with Clark, Particularly because of the way this schedule sets up,

436
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,879
Speaker 2: talk about a rough start. They're going local, They're playing

437
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 2: at home against Virginia Tech at ECU at Virginia. That

438
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 2: could be a recipe to feed Wolf into the into

439
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 2: the Wood Chipper and then make a switch and go

440
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 2: with Clark another team where if they start off really

441
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 2: slow and they have some issues, I'm going to try

442
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 2: to tuck away in my back pocket. What are your

443
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: thoughts on where the program sits? Now? Start with you,

444
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 2: I and L because this is a team that you

445
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 2: rode during that winning streak and you were really kind

446
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 2: of singing the praises of Ricky Ronnie as a former

447
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 2: Penn State coach. What are your thoughts on the Monarchs here?

448
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 4: Shut up, Breeze, of course, Hayden Wolf's the guy. We

449
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 4: will not stepped hand in Wolfs Slater on the amount

450
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 4: of money that dude made us last year. You guys

451
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 4: in week one, you're already talking crap. Watch your mouth.

452
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 4: Hayden Wolf five five and one is the starter when

453
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 4: he took over DJ Mack, who was trash obvious. Yeah,

454
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,880
Speaker 4: they got smoked in the bowl game. But Blake Watson

455
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 4: is a monster and he's an over Like he really

456
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 4: didn't get going until Wolf's took over. You look at

457
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 4: his numbers at the end of the year. He was,

458
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,239
Speaker 4: you know, not really I think he started like one

459
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty yards in like the first three games

460
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 4: as Wolf as the starter. Ali Jennings is back, Zach

461
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 4: Koontz is back. Their offensive line returns four starters. They

462
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 4: do have a new offensive coordinator, and I was reading

463
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 4: a little. I was doing the Colin Wilson listening to

464
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 4: the the Beat writers stuff. He really wants to run

465
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 4: up tempo, really pushed the pace on offense. So I

466
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,159
Speaker 4: think this offense is going to be very fun, very exciting.

467
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 4: You know, I love Old Dominion. They're one of those

468
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 4: teams where I'll probably bet a lot. I don't Their

469
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 4: schedule is hard. I don't know that I love the

470
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 4: win total or any futures. I know Colin might, but

471
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 4: their schedule is hard. But they're definitely a team where

472
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 4: I'm going to be. You know, give me Ricky Ricky

473
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 4: that Virginia Tech game, a little Penn State offensive coordinator

474
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 4: face off, Like, I think I've taken the points with

475
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 4: Ricky Ronnie. There you got East Carolina. We still don't

476
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 4: know what they end up Virginia. I'm definitely taking Old Dominion.

477
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:05,880
Speaker 4: So they're a team I'll probably bet a lot week

478
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 4: to week like we did last year, especially if they're

479
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 4: getting points against some of those big bigger Power five schools.

480
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 4: I'm hoping Colin talks to me into a win total

481
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 4: or future bet, but now I don't have any action.

482
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 4: But you know, I love Old Dominion, love Ricky Ronnie,

483
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 4: and this is a pro Hayden Wolf podcast. Despite the

484
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,159
Speaker 4: start to the segment.

485
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 1: Well you hear calibers say that the number to win

486
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: the Sun Belt is fifty to one and the division

487
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 1: is twenty five to one. That's because it used to

488
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 1: be sixty to one, and it used to be thirty

489
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: five to one, and until I hit it last night,

490
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: this is a team that is I am picking to

491
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 1: win the East at the very least. I didn't mean

492
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 1: to rhyme there, but you know, if you're going to

493
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 1: take someone to take the Sunbuilt East, I think the

494
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: twenty five to one bet on Old Dominion is probably

495
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 1: some of the best value you can find in any

496
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: division of any of any conference of college football. And

497
00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 1: the reason is because this is a team that returns

498
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: ninety one percent of their offense. And by the way,

499
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 1: can we just say they did not play in twenty twenty, right,

500
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: I mean, as a brand new coach, look what they

501
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: did last year?

502
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:08,239
Speaker 5: They won.

503
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: They finally figured it out won their final five games,

504
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: two or three of them as underdogs. They won those games,

505
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 1: and I don't fault them for losing to Tulsa. Anytime

506
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: you go up against at Joseph Gillespie called defensive you know,

507
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: defensive set good luck. I'm not surprised that they didn't

508
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 1: score that many points, and I don't really hold it

509
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: against them. But when you look at what these guys

510
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: return all the offense, and you guys mentioned I said

511
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 1: ninety one percent on defense, they return I think the

512
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 1: best safety in all the Sunbelt and Artarium Johnson. And

513
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: when you get past that and you look at the schedule,

514
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 1: I know you mentioned a lot of tough games non conference,

515
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,120
Speaker 1: so immediately I'm just going to write off win totals.

516
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 1: Don't want to play the win total, not interested. But

517
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,439
Speaker 1: what can they do inside the Sun Belt and they

518
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: don't play Louisiana or Troy or Southern miss from the

519
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: other side, those are huge bumps. And then when you

520
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: look at the rest of the schedule, they start with

521
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 1: Arkansas State probably the worst team in the nation. Maybe

522
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: next New Mexico is, but Arkansas State's a dumpster fire,

523
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 1: you know, horrible, and they're playing a depleted coastal off

524
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: of a bye week huge bump there, and obviously at

525
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 1: Georgia State and at app State that's an issue. But

526
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: with these odds at twenty five to one to win

527
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: the division and at fifty to one to win the conference,

528
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 1: there is plenty of room for you to go back

529
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: and cover up your ten one hundred, five hundred dollars bets.

530
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 5: By the way, they won't let you lay five hundred

531
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 5: dollars bets. You can cover up.

532
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: That initial buy in you have on the division and

533
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 1: the conference in both games if you want, and maybe

534
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 1: if ty breakers work out, maybe Old Dominion is playing

535
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: in at some built championship. That number is ridiculously too high.

536
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 1: Go and get some futures on them to win the

537
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: division or the you know, if you want to worry

538
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 1: about the championship game against any of these teams in

539
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,239
Speaker 1: the West that we're looking at, fine, But I think

540
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 1: twenty five to one for the division is probably the.

541
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 5: Juicy's number out there from any conference right now.

542
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 2: And just a clarifier, are you a member of the

543
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: wolf Beck or are you leaning lucky the Irish and

544
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: hoping that they go with the vastly more athletically talented

545
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 2: backup quarterback.

546
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 5: I am a member of the Hayden Wolf Will Pack.

547
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: I do have a red colored wo shirts when I

548
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: join you guys this here on some podcasts, I will

549
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 1: bring that on set.

550
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 2: All right, So that's settled. I think you certainly talked

551
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 2: me into a flyer on Old Dominion. It was a

552
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: team I bet a lot. You know, I'm hopeful. You know,

553
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,360
Speaker 2: in some cases the backup quarterbacks the most popular guy

554
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 2: on campus. In my household, Brandon Clark will be as well,

555
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: all right. Transitioning to Georgia Southerne hundred to one to

556
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 2: win the belt. Four wins for their win total one

557
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 2: hundred and eleventh, offensive projected efficiency, hundred and fifth on defense.

558
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 2: Welcome to the party, Clay Helton. You only return nine starters,

559
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 2: You got a new offensive system. You bring in someone

560
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 2: that I wasn't even sure. If you told me that

561
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: Kyle Van Trees exhausted his eligibility in twenty nineteen, I

562
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 2: would have believed you. But here he is as a

563
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: super super senior to run this offense. Not interested in

564
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 2: this team. This team is one that I'm going to fade,

565
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 2: and honestly, it's It's pretty easy for me to do

566
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 2: because I know the bias isn't there. Georgia Southern when

567
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 2: they were running their version of the option offense all

568
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 2: those years, I loved them. Remember the Adrian Peterson day

569
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 2: is not that one. The other one way back in

570
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: the day when they were crushing it at the FCS level.

571
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 2: I loved what they were doing. It's a program that

572
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 2: I have a soft spot for in Statesboro. They have

573
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: been They've laid plenty of bear traps here in the

574
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 2: Sunbelt over the years, kind of ruining teams dream runs

575
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: and playing spoiler. But not this year. I am not

576
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 2: in on this transition. I think it's going to be

577
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 2: a rocky one. Somebody has to lose a lot of

578
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 2: games in the East. I think it's Trueorgia Southern. What

579
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 2: do you guys think.

580
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,239
Speaker 4: I don't think there's a team in the country that

581
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 4: I like, feel like I know less about than Georgia Southern.

582
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 4: I don't think I've ever bet on a Georgia Southern

583
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 4: game in my entire life. I was saying that as

584
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 4: when I was writing it up. They're just one of

585
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 4: those teams that I'm like, I don't care. I've just

586
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 4: come in trace. He's been at Buffalo for I'm pretty

587
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 4: sure he play with Khalu Mack at Buffalo. And to

588
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 4: your point, like, who knows they're they're going from triple

589
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 4: option to spread style. You know they're changing their defense.

590
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't care about this team. I'm

591
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,719
Speaker 4: not betting anything involving them ever, So Colin, you can

592
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 4: go yeah.

593
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, you know Vanreaues he did have some

594
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 1: extremely you know, some of the best weapons in the MAC.

595
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: So how much of those numbers that he posted up

596
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: there were because of him? I mean, he played decent

597
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: ball for Buffalo, but he had the best weapons in

598
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,479
Speaker 1: the conference. So that certainly helps O a lot. He

599
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: doesn't have this here. I don't believe one single player

600
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 1: will be listed for the Sun Belt preseason. You know,

601
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: All American whatever team it is, they put out a

602
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 1: none in the two depth.

603
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 5: And so Clay Hilton.

604
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: Comes in, a guy that hates to cover spreads, he

605
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: hates to make us money, so you know.

606
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 5: You want to fade him right off the bat.

607
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: There's going to be a scheme change going on on

608
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball, and you say, well, you know,

609
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 1: maybe it won't be so bad. Well, the offense, which

610
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: turned seventy one percent of the players that they had

611
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: last year from an experienced perspective, and those guys are

612
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 1: triple option based, right, Shywortz has gone, But I mean still,

613
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: this has been triple option forever here. I think before

614
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 1: I was born, they were running the triple and so

615
00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 1: it's a scheme change for seventy one percent of this

616
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: row uster And they finished in the bottom five and

617
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: success rate finishing drives last year, so that might get worse.

618
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: From a defensive side, they return less than fifty percent.

619
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 1: They finished almost outside the top one hundred and success rate,

620
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: so I don't expect any improvement there.

621
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 5: And then when you look at you know.

622
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: Their schedule, they draw Ull in South Bama, from the West,

623
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: at Nebraska, at UAB and then three and I think

624
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: this is really key. Three of their first four games

625
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: in Sun Belt are on the road. So what is

626
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 1: the status and the health of this team once they

627
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 1: get to November, right, because everybody's beat up. But when

628
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: you look at the number of teams that they play

629
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: and you consider they're switching schemes, I think you almost

630
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 1: blindly have to take an under on this team. If

631
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: you're looking for a bed, it's a number that I

632
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: make at four point six. I feel like that's way

633
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: too high.

634
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 5: I'm in line, it's in line with the market.

635
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with this team, but

636
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 1: the only play on them is the under.

637
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: Right, let's transition to a team that is fun to

638
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 2: talk about. You know, they can't win the Sun Belt

639
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 2: this year, but they have six wins set as their

640
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,239
Speaker 2: win total, and all the preseason projections, when you go

641
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 2: from FCS to FBS numbers, I kind of throw them out.

642
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 2: The fact that the S and P Plus has James

643
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: Madison as the ninety fifth best offense one hundred and

644
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: fourth best defense. Listen, this was as dominant an FCS

645
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 2: program as there is nationally other than North Dakota State,

646
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: which is constantly a thorn in their side. They went

647
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: thirty three and five across the last three seasons. Their

648
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 2: big problem is losing Cole Johnson forty one tds four

649
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 2: picks last year. They bring in the transfer from Colorado State,

650
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 2: try to run this offense, but at the end of

651
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 2: the day, it's still Mike Shanahan as the OC and

652
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 2: since he took over in twenty nineteen, the Dukes have

653
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: average thirty seven points per game. They got a run

654
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 2: based scheme. I think they can, you know, score some

655
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: points in this conference. So I have them circled as

656
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: maybe you know, an overbetter's dream early on as they

657
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 2: try to work some things out. They got a lot

658
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 2: of new faces on defense. Do you have any thoughts

659
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 2: on James Madison, even if it's a long term you know,

660
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 2: where they fit into the pecking order. It's almost a

661
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: shame that they have to, you know, join the East

662
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: because there's already so many heavy hitters. If they were

663
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: in the West, I mean, I would imagine they'd be

664
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 2: competitive for a division title in year two at the

665
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 2: very least. But what are your thoughts on the Dukes.

666
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm a little surprised that you said that in

667
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 4: sp plus. Maybe I'm just wrong because I actually was

668
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 4: going into it thinking their defense would be a little

669
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 4: better than their offense and that they would transition easier.

670
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 4: To be honest, I feel like their defense has been

671
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 4: so dominant the FCS that I would be shocked if

672
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 4: that transitions easier. I think losing Cole Johnson is huge.

673
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 4: He's one of the best SCS quarterbacks we've seen, and

674
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 4: I don't know Sintao's, I don't know whatever, So I'm

675
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 4: a little shaky on their offense. They're another team where

676
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 4: I just there's too much unknown for me that I

677
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 4: can't picture myself betting them a lot this year. I

678
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 4: think they're kind of all, let's wait and see. I

679
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 4: want to kind of see. You know, Middle of Tennessee

680
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 4: and Norfolk State are a nice couple easy. You know,

681
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: they should win at least one of those and then

682
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 4: you know, probably get smoked by Apps Stay and then

683
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 4: you know, maybe Texas State is when I kind of

684
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 4: started like, all right, let's see what this team's about.

685
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 4: So there team, I'm probably just gonna sit back and

686
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 4: watch for at least the first you know, month or

687
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 4: so of the season.

688
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I definitely that's that's the way you have

689
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: to approach a team that is moving on up. You know,

690
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: first off, they're only playing eleven games, and then when

691
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: I look at some of their projected points spreads, they're

692
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: going to be massive favorites over Norfolk State. They're actually

693
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: going to be double digit favorites over Arkansas State and

694
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: Texas State. So I mean there are wins available here. Uh,

695
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: they're going to be in coin.

696
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 5: Flips against you know, Old Dominion. They're gonna be a

697
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 5: way at Old Dominion. I project that.

698
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: Around a pick, but then there's a lot of other

699
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: coin flips on games on this. But they are going

700
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: to serve as an underdog to app State, to Georgia State,

701
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: to Coastal uh, and then they're probably going to get

702
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: ran out the building against Louisville.

703
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 5: So, uh, there are spots to back them. I don't

704
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 5: think you know.

705
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: The win total I have projected at six point two.

706
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: That seems pretty high for a team team it's only

707
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: playing eleven games coming into FBS. I don't trust their

708
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 1: quarterback who you know, Todd Steny, who's coming in from

709
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: Colorado State. So for me, this is going to be

710
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: a week to week and try to catch them. Where

711
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: teams are completely overlooking the Dukes.

712
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: We're going to transition out to the West, and I

713
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 2: would say we're going to focus a little bit more

714
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: on the bottom half of this because there's really one

715
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: team to win the West and it's Louisiana. They're plus

716
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: three fifty to win the whole thing eight and a

717
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 2: half wins as their win total minus one thirty juice

718
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: to the over eighty third projected S and P plus

719
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 2: offensive efficiency fifty fifth on defense could be the best

720
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 2: defense if everything comes together in the Sunbelt for them

721
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: this season. Obviously, Billy Napier off to greener pastures down

722
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 2: there in the swamp coaching up the Florida Gators.

723
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 5: Scared money, don't.

724
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: Make money, you know that leaves Michael Desormo. He's the

725
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: new head coach. This potentially special defense. This is what

726
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: I want to focus in on Zion Hill anchoring the

727
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: defensive line. They have quality players and playmakers at all

728
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: three levels, but the super soft schedule for me, is

729
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: what potentially could hide their warts, and it's going to

730
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 2: make it difficult to gauge how they're doing without a quarterback.

731
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 2: Who I mean if you told me Levi lewe played

732
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: across three presidential terms, I would have believed you. Like

733
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 2: the fact that I have to quickly do the math

734
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: in my head. Is it possible he had been there

735
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: for so long and taken such a high percentage of

736
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 2: the snaps? Really, the only person left is Chris Smith,

737
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: who's still awesome and has the potential to be a

738
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: bell cow and to be kind of, you know, a

739
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: Swiss Army Knight for them offensively, but outside of that,

740
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: it's it's really just a shame that the probably the

741
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 2: second best team here in the division is Troy, because

742
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 2: every part of me wants to say this seems like

743
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: a fallback to earth after a good four year run

744
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 2: with new pieces on offense, a new leading man. But

745
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 2: I just don't necessarily know if I have a horse

746
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 2: in this race that I think is going to pass them.

747
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on louisianam being too harsh? Is

748
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: this a team that's just established themselves from a recruiting

749
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 2: perspective that they're just head and shoulders above everybody else

750
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: in the West. We'll start with you callin.

751
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, No, I think I think you're on the right track.

752
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 5: That's the track that I'm on. There's a huge discrepancy

753
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 5: where between where I project their wintiler versus WSP plus

754
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 5: SP plus is more around nine. I'm more around seven

755
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 5: point two.

756
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: And I just don't like the back teams early to

757
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: lose almost their entire offensive line. Their percentage of offensive

758
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: line snaps is just you know, it completely was drained.

759
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 5: We're looking at a new quarterback here.

760
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: The strength you mentioned it, Mike. The strength of this

761
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: team is their defense. Right outside of app State, this

762
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: is the best defense in the Sunbelt. The finished top

763
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: twenty five and success right there were eighteenth in defensive

764
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: finishing drives and hey, they like to cause a lot

765
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: of havoc. I don't expect any of that to change.

766
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: This coaching staff is going to do the same thing.

767
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 5: That Billion Napier did.

768
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm allowed to say his name anymore,

769
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: but coach Billionnapier moving on to Florida. But this coaching

770
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: staff is going to do exactly what he had already

771
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: put in. So you know, I don't I expect the

772
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: players have a lot of familiarity, but I have issues

773
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: with the offensive line. We don't have a quarterback there anymore.

774
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: That was making me lose a whole bunch of bets

775
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: all the time. So just thirty seven percent returns on

776
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: the offensive side. But I am definitely a win total

777
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: under on this.

778
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 4: It's so hard to guess their win total based on

779
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 4: how I feel about the team because because the schedule

780
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 4: is an absolute joke. I mean, Southeast Louisiana, Eastern Michigan,

781
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 4: Rice Ulm. That's their first four games. They're going to

782
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 4: steam roll all four of those teams. I assume you

783
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,760
Speaker 4: have Upstate, Coastal, Georgia State, and Marshall all well ahead

784
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 4: of them in your power ratings. They lost their entire

785
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 4: offensive line, they lost their quarterback. I'm with you sometimes

786
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 4: be like, I can't believe that guy's still there. I

787
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 4: can't believe Levi Lewis isn't there. I feel like he

788
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 4: just should just keep playing forever. They lost their linebackers,

789
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: so their defense should be fine, but they did Lewis

790
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 4: almost all their lineback and corps. They lost their running backs,

791
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,439
Speaker 4: Napier Chuck after you know, position players to Florida with him.

792
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 4: Mccasko left left, he went in the portal. So I

793
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: just they're going to cake walk to this division championship

794
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 4: because it's just Wisconsin in the Big Ten West, and

795
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 4: they're going to get probably pounded in some Belt championship game.

796
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: They're going to enter the season with the same power

797
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 1: rating as Troy, and they're going to enter the season

798
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 1: about five and a half points below app State. Here's

799
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: a ceiling and a Florida your conference, and Louisiana has

800
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 1: been eclipsing that ceiling for years, and at some point

801
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: that's going to run rest back to the conference. And

802
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 1: that really goes by your recruiting, right, you can only

803
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,399
Speaker 1: get a certain time a kid, And Caligaryes is right

804
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: when he says, hey, they've been bringing in a whole

805
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: bunch of high level recruits.

806
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:05,280
Speaker 5: But we do have a coaching regime.

807
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 1: I don't know what you have on the offensive line,

808
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 1: So I think being five and a half points less

809
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: than app stayed a proper place to put them to

810
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: start this season.

811
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 2: Let's see if we can talk ourselves into any other teams.

812
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with my favorite, what I'd like

813
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: to refer to as a half team. Just think about

814
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 2: the opposite of like Texas Tech during all those Mike

815
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: Leach years where it's like great offense, lousy defense. Let's

816
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 2: flip it around with Troy. They're fifteen to one to

817
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 2: win the Belt six for their win total minus one

818
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 2: twenty to be over there. The projected S and P

819
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 2: plus on offense one hundred and sixteenth, defense forty eighth.

820
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 2: And here's the thing. The new head coach, he's all

821
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 2: about defense. John Sumrall, former defensive coordinator at Kentucky. He's

822
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 2: leading Troy now.

823
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 5: They get nine.

824
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: Returning starters on that side of the ball, including All

825
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: World linebacker Carlton Marshall. He has a chance, I believe,

826
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 2: to break the NCAA record for tackles because he got

827
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: an extra bonus here due to COVID. I'm interested if

828
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: they can get anything more out of their offense because

829
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: in terms of returning productions, a lot of these guys

830
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: have played together for a long time. Now, their new

831
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: OC Joe Cratick, was a tight ends coach at UAB. Recently,

832
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 2: apparently coming out of spring ball, he wants to use

833
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: tight ends more often, you know, kind of have more

834
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 2: of a bully ball situation to pair with the stingy defense.

835
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: I like that. I think the only direction is up

836
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 2: for this offense. There were one hundred and ninth in

837
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: total offense last season. If if the Trojans can give

838
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: us anything on that side of the ball, really signs

839
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: the life get into the nineties offensively, I think they're

840
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: gonna have a puncher's chance to give Louisiana trouble here

841
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 2: and to potentially pull out a division championship. At fifteen

842
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 2: to one, I'm not interested because even if that's the case,

843
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 2: they get to the championship game, they're probably close to

844
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,439
Speaker 2: a touchdown underdog, regardless of who's on the other side

845
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 2: of it. But I'm gonna play over on the win total.

846
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: I like Troy, I love the defense. I think they're

847
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: going to be in a lot of games. That potentially

848
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: throws some variants up there for me. But I'd like

849
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: to roll the dice. I think they could, you know,

850
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 2: the high end of this win nine games, the low

851
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 2: end probably five, and you know, kind of chalk it

852
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: up to a bad offense. What are your thoughts on

853
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: how I'm couching my expectations with Troy Collen, I.

854
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 5: Think you're right on the mark.

855
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 1: I will say this, Joe Kratick, before he was at UAB,

856
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: was the Arkansas offensive coordinator during the the Chad Morris years,

857
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 1: and I can't even begin to tell you how bad

858
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: of an offense that was and how changes after the first,

859
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 1: second and third quarter never happened. So if we're looking

860
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: for adjustments on the fly for Troy in the middle

861
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: of the game and you think that this offense can

862
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: madually come back, don't get caught up in live betting

863
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: Troy to come back anytime in this season here right,

864
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 1: it is an offense to finished outside the top one

865
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 1: hundred and all the advanced analytics. At the same time,

866
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 1: this defense returns eighty nine percent of the return of

867
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 1: their returning production and their transfer portal pulls. From the

868
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: past season, they were twentieth in success rate. I don't

869
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: expect that to change whatsoever with the head coaching higher.

870
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: I am with you, though, I am kind of bullish

871
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: on their win total. I put them in at seven

872
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 1: point two. I believe SPPLUS has them around six point four.

873
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: It's good enough for me to take an over here

874
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: considering what the schedule is. But offense makes me nervous.

875
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 5: I think that's really a rule of fulm with Troy here.

876
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 5: If you're getting into live betting all of us do.

877
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: Do not think that Troy is going to come back

878
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 1: in any of these games from an offensive perspective.

879
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, I had them as kind of a lean over,

880
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 4: but not play it. Maybe you guys will talk me

881
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 4: into it. I do love this defense. They'll probably be

882
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 4: a pretty decent like under team that all miss game

883
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 4: is going to be pretty fun, But I'm probably staying

884
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 4: away for now. Because there's another team in the West

885
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 4: that I absolutely love.

886
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 2: There remaining five teams here in the West. You can

887
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: make an argument that they're all not good, but just

888
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 2: a question of is there a position you can take

889
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,720
Speaker 2: to make some money? Are their teams that could surprise

890
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 2: on one side of the ball. I'm going to start

891
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 2: with the team that I have no faith in, and

892
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: I'm actually surprised that they are as high in some

893
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 2: power rankings and media polls as they are. South Alabama

894
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 2: also fifteen to one, also six wins in terms of

895
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 2: their win total for the season. The projection here matches

896
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,720
Speaker 2: how I feel about their offense one hundred and twentieth

897
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 2: according to S and P Plus. Major Applewaite could not

898
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 2: turn the turn this around last year, and he had

899
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 2: Jalen Tolbert. It's hard to overstate how special of a

900
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 2: player he was and what he gave to them in

901
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 2: terms of explosiveness. And when I look at the schedule

902
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 2: trips to Central Michigan early on, I see that as

903
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: a loss. Trip to UCLA loss so one and two start,

904
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: I think is going to doom them. I don't see

905
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 2: anyone coming in to give them something different at quarterback

906
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: I'm out on South Alabama. I'm going to take advantage

907
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 2: of them just kind of by default being considered the

908
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,240
Speaker 2: two A or third best team in the West Division.

909
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on this column?

910
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 5: My win total projection at five point five. I think

911
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 5: guess peplus is at five point one. I just don't

912
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 5: see any value in the market on this team whatsoever.

913
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 5: Is definitely not one of the remaining teams that I'm

914
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 5: taking to win this division.

915
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is one of those teams where it's important

916
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 4: not to get fooled when you see that they're returning

917
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 4: their whole offensive line because their offensive line was horrible.

918
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 4: I think only like four teams in the country allowed

919
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: more sacks and more tagles for loss. This is the

920
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 4: more I'm like, get them all out of here.

921
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 5: Let's bring something one hundred and twentieth than Havoc allowed, right,

922
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 5: the worst offensive line.

923
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 4: That's like when you look when you're doing your preseason research,

924
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 4: the first thing you do is who's returning. It's like, Oh,

925
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 4: they're returning their whole offensive line. Nope, that's not a

926
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 4: good sign.

927
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 5: Here.

928
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 4: You mentioned Jalen Tobert Levin. They also lose Jake Bentley,

929
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,280
Speaker 4: who you know, I'm assuming he just transferred to another

930
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 4: school and I have to figure out which one that was.

931
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 4: But they brought they brought in Carter Bradley from Toledo.

932
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,240
Speaker 4: I don't know he was, Okay. I think Desmond Trotter,

933
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 4: who was their twenty twenty starter, is also in this

934
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 4: quarterback competition. They're another team like Troy who just cannot

935
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 4: run the ball whatsoever. Their defense is good, but I'm

936
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 4: with you, guys, I'm off on them.

937
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 5: You know, I'm just gonna surprise that way.

938
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 2: All right, Let's go from a quote unquote bad team

939
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: to another bad team that I'm excited about, and that's

940
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 2: Southern Mess twenty five to one to win the seven Belt.

941
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 2: But I'm circling five and a half wins as their

942
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 2: season total one hundred and twenty third projection in SMP plus.

943
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: I don't care because they had so many quarterback injuries

944
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 2: last year. It was ridiculous. With every option hurt last year.

945
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 2: The last two games they ended up playing like a

946
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 2: hybrid wildcat situation. They win both. So if they go

947
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 2: into the offseason with a little bit of juice, a

948
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 2: little bit of positivity, and now they get Taikeyack four

949
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,360
Speaker 2: starters on the offensive line, some interesting options at running

950
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 2: back and experience there with Frank Core Junior, and then

951
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: they bring in the Juco sensation Latrelle Jones at wide

952
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 2: receiver on the perimeter. You add all of this in

953
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 2: and they're one of the few teams in the country,

954
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 2: I think only nineteen or twenty nationally head coach, oc

955
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 2: DC and quarterback all coming back, if you count Tay

956
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 2: Keys as officially coming back. I'm in on Southern Miss.

957
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 2: I think that they can, you know, win some games,

958
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 2: be competitive across the board in the sun Belt West,

959
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 2: and I'm excited that they're being viewed as kind of

960
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 2: a middling team in the same breath as an Arkansas State.

961
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. We'll get to Arkansas State in the second.

962
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: I got lots of bad things to say, but they

963
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 2: should never be mentioned in the same sentence.

964
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts here, Colin, Oh, Southern Miss all

965
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: the way, this is the team that is going to

966
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 1: win this division.

967
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 5: Go ahead and market down.

968
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: I don't want to hear any Louisiana that nonsense, any

969
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: white noise before the season gets kicked off. I don't

970
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: think that you can properly handicap a team that had

971
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,280
Speaker 1: five quarterbacks and two interim coaches.

972
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 5: I don't think that's ever happened in college ball before.

973
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 1: And you know, I mean some coaches are getting fired

974
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 1: in October now before they make a ball. We've got

975
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: interim coaches that are fleeting before their interim time is up.

976
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 1: So Southern Miss just went through so much to where

977
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,919
Speaker 1: Frank Gore was taking snaps in the last two games

978
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: of the season. Who they beat, you know, Louisiana Tech

979
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: and FIU. They returned eighty seven percent on the offense,

980
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 1: which was second in the in the whole entire sun Belt.

981
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 1: They returned eighty six percent on defense, second in the

982
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 1: entire sun Belt.

983
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 5: And that defense was actually really good. Last year.

984
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 1: They were fifteenth in defensive finishing drives. Teams got the

985
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 1: opponent drives got into the red zone, they weren't able

986
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 1: to get anything up on the board that's going to

987
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 1: stick and that's going to play out. And defensive finishing

988
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 1: drives is the biggest indicator of covering games. So you

989
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 1: don't have to twist my arm, but take Southern Miss

990
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: here until you show me the schedule, which you know,

991
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,879
Speaker 1: I don't see app state on the schedule. I don't

992
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: see Marshall on this schedule. I see getting Louisiana, the

993
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: big division rival, on a Thursday night. That's a short

994
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: week for them to go travel. This absolutely is my

995
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,320
Speaker 1: pick to win the division on Southern Miss. I'm not

996
00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: going to mess with the win total.

997
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 5: I'm just gonna believe they're gonna get it done in

998
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 5: the Sun Belt Championship game.

999
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 2: Iel, are you as bullish on the Eagles here? Let's

1000
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: hear it.

1001
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 4: Fly Eagles fly baby, all of us unite. I'm with you.

1002
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 4: Throw out. Last year they lost their entire quarterback room.

1003
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 4: I'm all in on ty Keys. You know you just

1004
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 4: hurt Week five last year. But this is a This

1005
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 4: is a kid that had SEC scholarship offers.

1006
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 2: He had mister football in this mister football, mister football.

1007
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,800
Speaker 4: He He had offers from Mississippi State and Ole Miss

1008
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 4: turned him down. He had offers from Alburn, he had

1009
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 4: offered from Oregon, Nebraska. He picked Southern Miss. God knows why,

1010
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 4: but I'm happy he's here. Frank Gore Junior's back, Like

1011
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 4: you said, he was quarterback half the time, so now

1012
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,879
Speaker 4: he can actually focus on running back. Jason Brownlee's back

1013
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 4: at receiver. DeMarcus Jones is back at receiver. And what

1014
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 4: have we talked about with all these last teams? What

1015
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 4: do we talk about with Troy? What do we talk

1016
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 4: about South Alabama? A lot of the teams in the

1017
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 4: West cannot run the ball well. Southern Miss have the

1018
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 4: best passing defense in the entire conference last year, and

1019
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 4: they returned their whole secondary. Malik Shorts and Cam Harrell

1020
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 4: are nasty safeties both back, so their strength is what

1021
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 4: everyone else is gonna have to do against them. And yeah,

1022
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 4: we'll Haul, you know, Will Haul. We loved him when

1023
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 4: he was at Tulane. He used to be he was

1024
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 4: the ose at Tulane. That offense was awesome. You really

1025
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 4: couldn't tell anything from their season last year because they

1026
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 4: did not have a quarterback. So I'm all in on

1027
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 4: Southern Miss. I talked about how much I'm down on Louisiana.

1028
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,919
Speaker 4: Every team we've gone through. You know, all these teams stink.

1029
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 4: So I like Southern Miss a lot. I'm with you guys.

1030
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 4: I actually do like their win total and I also

1031
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 4: like them to win the division as well.

1032
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 2: All Right, this next segment I'll refer to as the

1033
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: Saturday Night Live cut for time segment. We're gonna go

1034
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 2: quickly through Arkansas State because I think we're of the

1035
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 2: same mind on them nine to one, five wins for

1036
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: their win total five one hundred and tenth projection on

1037
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 2: offense on hundred and twenty first on defense, they returned

1038
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 2: just eight starters after a disastrous season under Butch Jones.

1039
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 2: I'm sure he's got all kinds of motivational employees like that,

1040
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 2: you know, put the football in the garbage can and

1041
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 2: all that stuff. He came up with ten that to

1042
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 2: my memory, totally work Tennessee. It's got it turned around there.

1043
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 2: They can still throw the ball. That's fine. Whoever ends

1044
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 2: up being the quarterback in that spot Lane Hatch ends

1045
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 2: up transferring out of the program. But this defense has

1046
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 2: an opportunity to be Yukon level bad this season. Anything

1047
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 2: that I said, do you take any issue with that?

1048
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 2: Otherwise let's just say under on the winner, I.

1049
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 4: Take an issue. I take an issue with you saying

1050
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 4: they could throw the ball. James Blackman might be a

1051
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 4: starting quarterback in the year twenty twenty two. They can't

1052
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,839
Speaker 4: throw the ball. They sink they're the worst team. I'm

1053
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 4: with Colin under five is my best bet in this conference.

1054
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 4: This team is so bad, their defense is horrific. They

1055
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 4: might give up fifty points a game. And if you

1056
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 4: think James Blackman is gonna be able to put up fifty,

1057
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 4: good luck to you. I'm betting they're under.

1058
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 5: Let's just have a side bet, gentlemen.

1059
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna set the over under on October fifteenth before

1060
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 1: mister Butch Jones himself as an offensive analyst at Alabama.

1061
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 2: I'll say he's fired before October fifteenth.

1062
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 4: I like that after they lose to James Madison. Is

1063
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 4: that what you're saying, Colin, They're gonna lose James Madison

1064
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 4: to follow oh and six.

1065
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 5: And nope, he gone, Yep, he's gone.

1066
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 4: What is the first half team total for Ohio State?

1067
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:09,280
Speaker 4: Forty five?

1068
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: All those points are gonna get scored in the second

1069
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: quarter too. I'm gonna it's gotta be thirty eight.

1070
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 5: And a half.

1071
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:16,399
Speaker 1: Thirty eight and a half, right, there will be a field,

1072
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: but it might not be enough. I think we're gonna

1073
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 1: have to go forty two and a half.

1074
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:22,319
Speaker 2: We're gonna go ahead now and close out with two

1075
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 2: teams that have a little bit more intrigue. Gonna start

1076
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 2: with Texas State fifty to one. Four and a half

1077
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 2: is their win total one hundred and six projection on offense,

1078
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,959
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty eight on defense. It's the Spavital show.

1079
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 2: Jake is the head coach, Zach's the THEOC or sorry,

1080
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 2: the DC. Four single digit losses in twenty twenty one,

1081
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 2: that's the headline. That's the silver lining. As far as

1082
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 2: I'm concerned. They won four games last year, they were

1083
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 2: in four others. They bring in Lane Hatcher, stealing them

1084
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 2: from Arkansas State. He certainly has had some success, more

1085
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:53,360
Speaker 2: under Anderson obviously than Butch Jones. Not gonna hold that

1086
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 2: against him. But what's interesting to me if you go

1087
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: ahead and play the over here, they're opening with a

1088
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 2: Nevada team that's been totally rated, lost their coach in

1089
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 2: the off season. They get FIU, who's in big trouble

1090
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 2: as well, and then Houston Baptist all in September. I

1091
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: can close my eyes and see winning those three games.

1092
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 2: And if you do, then it's how do you do

1093
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 2: in those one possession games against you know, some of

1094
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 2: the dregs of the Sunbelt West. The rest of the way,

1095
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 2: where are you on on Texas State. This is probably

1096
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 2: the last year of this experiment if you can't get

1097
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 2: to let's say five hundred. But what do you think

1098
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 2: about Spabitall?

1099
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, Spabitol came in just hair on fire.

1100
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 1: I thought he was going to you know, I think

1101
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: I believe a couple of years ago I did have

1102
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,240
Speaker 1: a Texas State to win the Sunbelt like one hundred

1103
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: and one or something like that.

1104
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 5: So I do believe in him and as a coach.

1105
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 1: But you know, bringing in Lane Hatcher, I think the

1106
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 1: biggest question that I have because they return a lot.

1107
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 1: Ninety percent of this offense comes back. That's from offensive line,

1108
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: that's from the wide receivers. So there is some there

1109
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: is some talent here for Elaine Hatcher to work with.

1110
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,320
Speaker 1: And you mentioned three easy wins. I mean Houston Baptist

1111
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: is not the same Houston Baptist of Dailey's Appe he

1112
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: was at a couple of years ago.

1113
00:47:57,120 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 5: Right, They've they've completely regressed back.

1114
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 1: ZAPPI. So I think there's three easy wins on here,

1115
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: and then when you look at that the rest of

1116
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: that division, it's for the taking. I think the biggest

1117
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,320
Speaker 1: question that I have is Lane Hatcher going to be

1118
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 1: able to play within the confines of the offense that

1119
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: it is that spab at all wants to run, because

1120
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 1: this is not Blake Anderson's offense whatsoever. I do like

1121
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 1: the win total this is actually I project this at

1122
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 1: six and that is in strong, strong comparison against s

1123
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 1: P plus, which I think is a three point seven.

1124
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 5: So I am going to play the over on this

1125
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 5: just because of the schedule, the division, the non conference.

1126
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 5: You have to play this.

1127
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 4: Well, I don't have to play it. I'm not as

1128
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 4: high as on Colin as them. I'm not playing the over,

1129
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 4: but I would play it before I played the under.

1130
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 4: I do think they'll be better bringing in Hatcher, probably

1131
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 4: an upgrade over Brady McBride for one of these, like

1132
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 4: lower level G five teams, their offense sneaky, has a

1133
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 4: lot of depth. They have a ton of depth at receiver,

1134
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:52,759
Speaker 4: they have pre solid running back depth. Did not create

1135
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 4: any turnovers, which is a huge issue. I'll probably stay

1136
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 4: away from them, but I definitely think they'll be better

1137
00:48:58,080 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 4: than they were last year.

1138
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 2: All right, move and on. We made it to the

1139
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 2: last team here in the Sun Belt, and that's Louisiana

1140
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 2: Monroe one hundred to one. To win two and a

1141
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 2: half for their win total one hundred and twenty eighth

1142
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 2: projection on offense, one hundred and twenty seventh on defense.

1143
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,760
Speaker 2: It may shock you to remember that this team started

1144
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 2: four and three last year and then dropped three single

1145
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: possession games down the stretch. But they do return sixteen

1146
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 2: starters of them Boogie Knight, great name, great player. But

1147
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 2: it's a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator

1148
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 2: for the third straight season. That's just really difficult. That's

1149
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 2: that's taking any enthusiasm I had kind of off the table.

1150
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: And then you flip open the magazine, you scroll over

1151
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 2: to their schedule at Texas, at Alabama all in the

1152
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 2: first three weeks. I think they're going to get there,

1153
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 2: you know, what's pounded into the dirt, and after that,

1154
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 2: it's going to be difficult for them to get off

1155
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 2: the mat. So this is a pass for me on

1156
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:50,919
Speaker 2: a team that has a lot of continuity coming back,

1157
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 2: but that coaching staff's trying to instill some new value,

1158
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: some new technique, systems, everything else. I'm going to pass

1159
00:49:58,560 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 2: on the Warhawks here.

1160
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 1: What do you think it's a win total projection that

1161
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 1: I have at one and a half. So it's hard

1162
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 1: for me to get excited about this team. And you

1163
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: know what's funny, I.

1164
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 5: Have to choose my words carefully.

1165
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: A lot of the talking heads that we see on

1166
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: TV pick a team out like ULM, look at their

1167
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 1: wind total and say we got to go under. This

1168
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 1: team is terrible, and then yeah, you're right, they've you know,

1169
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: won four games early last year and blew everybody's taken

1170
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 1: away and you never heard anybody talk about that ever again.

1171
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 1: But in the case of this right now, you know,

1172
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 1: we do have a different scheme. I believe in Terry Bowden.

1173
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: I mean, he got Akron to a MAC championship, right

1174
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: so even with I think a quarterback like Kato Nelson,

1175
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 1: which is pretty impressive. So I do believe that Terry

1176
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,800
Speaker 1: Bowden can make something out of nothing here. The problem

1177
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 1: is is there is a really long journey to go here.

1178
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 1: We're talking the worst team in the nation and offensive

1179
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 1: success rate, one of the worst teams in the nation

1180
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 1: at scoring points when they pass the forty yard line,

1181
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: and then the defense doesn't return almost anything from last year.

1182
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 1: They had problems in that area too. So when I

1183
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 1: look at you know, if I project this at one

1184
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: and a half and we've got a win total above that.

1185
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 5: Where are you going to get this third win?

1186
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 4: Right?

1187
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,879
Speaker 1: Nichols is on the schedule, Armies on this schedule, You're

1188
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: not winning that game on a back to back road trip.

1189
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 5: You're going to get a bye week and head into

1190
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 5: Texas State.

1191
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 1: And the problem is you're going to have to lean

1192
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 1: into your conference to get these wins because you're not

1193
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 1: going to be Texas and you're not going to be

1194
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,799
Speaker 1: at Alabama. So I'm not one of these guys that's

1195
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 1: going to tell everybody to take the.

1196
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 5: Under here and it's the easiest play in the world.

1197
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 1: But I don't see where they I don't see even

1198
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 1: remotely how they how they can even get to probably.

1199
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:27,800
Speaker 5: Two wins on the schedule.

1200
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 1: It's a brutal non conference play, and that's where you've

1201
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 1: got to make your money.

1202
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 2: It just quickly in terms of, you know, a glimmer

1203
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 2: of hope as well. You know, they bring back the

1204
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 2: former offensive coordinator Matt Kubick, and he was able to

1205
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: work some magic with calb Evans. He kind of turned

1206
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:45,439
Speaker 2: him into statistically at least like a top thirty, top

1207
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 2: forty kind of quarterback. We're not talking about threatening for

1208
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 2: Bowl eligibility here. It's more for competency, so he's at

1209
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,400
Speaker 2: least done it in the past' That's the last positive

1210
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 2: thing I'll say for any Warhawk fans out there. I

1211
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 2: just want to make sure that we're not totally raining

1212
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 2: on your parade before a two intent season gets kicked off.

1213
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 1: They do have a decent defensive cornerator of Vic Connig,

1214
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 1: but the problem is I think he got fired for

1215
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 1: some comments that he made at West Virginia so he

1216
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 1: could coach just got to put some duct tape on

1217
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 1: his mouth.

1218
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 4: I'm not playing them, by the way. I'm another stay away.

1219
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:14,320
Speaker 4: I do like Trry about in two they were the

1220
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 4: least penalized team in the country in twenty two one.

1221
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 4: Maybe that's because the defense wasn't close enough to hold anybody,

1222
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 4: but that's a good sign they were disciplined all right.

1223
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 2: Before we get out of here, or minor to our audience,

1224
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: that all of the Group of five content is going

1225
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 2: to be dropping by August eighth. So that's every single

1226
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 2: conference covered in depth. As we are here, we're gonna

1227
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 2: go with the quick lightning rounds. Your favorite bet, your

1228
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 2: best bet here, and your favorites future to win the

1229
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 2: sun Belt outright, I'm gonna go ahead and start. I

1230
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 2: talked it up. I'm gonna hold my nose when Troy

1231
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 2: has the ball offensively and hope that that defense can

1232
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 2: carry me across that six win threshold. And then in

1233
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 2: terms of the Sun Belt Championship, I'm going to shop around.

1234
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 2: Sounds like Ianello found eleven to two on Marshall. Gonna

1235
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 2: go ahead there, hope that Henry Colombi can be my man.

1236
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 2: This is hard to say up four man's chase price.

1237
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: Just just give me some be the beat plus quarterback play,

1238
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 2: and I think everywhere else they have enough to get

1239
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: it done. And their fan base is going to be

1240
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 2: on fire this year. To be immediately inserted into a

1241
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 2: conference with some former fcs fos with a chance to

1242
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 2: win right away, I can go with the Thundering Herd.

1243
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 2: That's my two pack of picks. Let's go with you, Ianella.

1244
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 2: What do you got?

1245
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 4: Yeah? My feature is also Marshall to win the Sunbelt.

1246
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 4: I'm all in on the Thundering Herd. I'm hoping Colin

1247
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 4: goes Georgia State for his best win tell so I

1248
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 4: don't have to take him but because I do love that,

1249
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 4: So assuming he takes Georgia State over I'm gonna go

1250
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 4: with the Arkansas State under. I don't know how this

1251
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:40,879
Speaker 4: team gets five. I look, DraftKings has a flat five.

1252
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 4: I don't know if you ever see it anywhere else. Differently,

1253
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:47,320
Speaker 4: they're certainly not getting six wins, so that's a push

1254
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 4: at the worst. There's no way this team is bowling.

1255
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 4: So give me Arkansas State under five is my best bet.

1256
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:56,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, it would be a disservice if we didn't tell

1257
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,839
Speaker 1: people that the best bet was under Arkansas State. I'll

1258
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 1: be you know, I'll be on that myself. As far

1259
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 1: as my best bets go. You know, let's let's start

1260
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 1: in the East here. I'm absolutely taking Georgia State.

1261
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,760
Speaker 5: On the over here. That's a dangerous team.

1262
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 1: They've beaten Power Five teams before. I'm going to be

1263
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 1: looking for them on the money line and several occasions.

1264
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 1: I'm going to stick with the win total and not

1265
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 1: on the division futures because of how their schedule lines up.

1266
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: The team I am going to play is going to

1267
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 1: be Old Dominion twenty.

1268
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 5: Five to one. I think that's got legs to run

1269
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 5: all day.

1270
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 1: It really should be more properly priced around eight to

1271
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 1: one to win the division. They should be more properly

1272
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 1: priced around fifteen to one to win the Sun Belt.

1273
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 1: So I would play it to those numbers because I

1274
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 1: think I've already seen it move overnight.

1275
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 5: I think once this podcast comes out of my moose

1276
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:39,120
Speaker 5: some more.

1277
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: So, stop buying in eight to one for the division,

1278
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 1: stop buying at fifteen to one for the conference.

1279
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 5: Switching to the other side, I completely agree with I

1280
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 5: know in.

1281
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 1: Arkansas at Startzaw State and the under, but I'm going

1282
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 1: to go out on a limb and say Louisiana.

1283
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:52,759
Speaker 5: Under on their wind total. I'm just not as high.

1284
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:54,759
Speaker 1: I know that the coaching staff is going to do

1285
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 1: what Billion Apier wanted, but I am a big believer.

1286
00:54:57,719 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 1: When you've lost it in the trench, especially on the

1287
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 1: offense trench, it just throws everything else off. You don't

1288
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: know how good your quarterback is when he's scrambling and

1289
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 1: he's got to throw in a crowded pocket. I'm gonna

1290
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 1: go with Louisiana on the team total on their under

1291
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:11,440
Speaker 1: Southern miss all the way there. Might pick to win

1292
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 1: the division in the West.

1293
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 5: If you're feeling a.

1294
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: Little froggy and you see that forty to one out

1295
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 1: there on them to win the Sun Belt.

1296
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 5: Why not pairing it up with your old dominion might

1297
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 5: not be such a bad idea, but I do love

1298
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 5: Southern miss in that West division.

1299
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:24,439
Speaker 2: So this has been the group of five deep dive.

1300
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 2: We're on the tarmac, the season is about to start.

1301
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 2: The stewardnesses let us know that we need to strap

1302
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 2: in our fun belts. We've done that. We're gonna fly

1303
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 2: out to the thin air of the mountain west out

1304
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: in the Rockies. Cover them next. Very excited for that.

1305
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 2: For Colin Wilson, Mike Ianello, I'm Mike Calvary's. This has

1306
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 2: been an Action Network production. Thank you so much for listening.