Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.
Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe,
Speaker 1: Pi's apia And if you can believe it already, it's
Speaker 1: week five in the NFL. So we're going to look ahead.
Speaker 1: Leave week four in the dust, especially with some of
Speaker 1: those injuries. Were still waiting on some word for those.
Speaker 1: We still got one more Monday night football game to go,
Speaker 1: but that will not stop us from looking ahead. We're
Speaker 1: always trying to pursue onward. We're like great explorers. It's
Speaker 1: like Lewis and Clark. But I couldn't get those two guys,
Speaker 1: So instead I got paf fitz Morris, and I got
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman here to help me break it all down.
Speaker 1: And we're going to do just that this morning. Pat.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you, like everybody else, had you know, an
Speaker 1: enormous over in that Seattle Detroit game yesterday.
Speaker 2: Right, oh man? What a tract? Yeah? Like I want
Speaker 2: to go back and watch that one again. I mean it,
Speaker 2: it was on along with several other games, but I
Speaker 2: just like how we got to that point where there
Speaker 2: were almost one hundred points scored in that game. That
Speaker 2: was just wild. And by the way, start all your
Speaker 2: fantasy players against the Seahawks and Lions.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, that is very good advice. In the crossover,
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, before you completely leave Week four in the
Speaker 1: dust two. We got Kenny Pickett, we got Bailey Zappi.
Speaker 1: What a time to be alive, right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean one of those guys might end up
Speaker 3: being Rookie of the Year, which is real indictment on
Speaker 3: the rookies this year.
Speaker 1: But he's not bitter at all. All right, let's continue on,
Speaker 1: and we'll start with the Thursday night football game, which
Speaker 1: already has two running backs who probably are not going
Speaker 1: to be playing in this one. We think we're still
Speaker 1: waiting for word as we get it, probably definitely not
Speaker 1: so much Vonte Williams in this game, Jonathan Taylor. We're
Speaker 1: still waiting on word. But this number right now is
Speaker 1: forty three and a half is the total you're looking
Speaker 1: at Indianapolis traveling to Denver and Denver being three point
Speaker 1: road favorites in this game. If you like the Indianapolis
Speaker 1: upset right now, it's plus one forty over bettingpros dot Com. Freedman,
Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of uncertainty right now in
Speaker 1: this game. Does that lend itself to early opportunity or
Speaker 1: is this more of a cautionary tale to stay away?
Speaker 4: Maybe?
Speaker 3: I mean, I bet the under. I've already bet under
Speaker 3: forty three and a half. I don't think either team
Speaker 3: is really all that offensively inclined, and they're missing some
Speaker 3: of their better weapons in terms of the spread. I
Speaker 3: do have this right around where the market is at three,
Speaker 3: so I don't see any value there.
Speaker 4: But I do like the under.
Speaker 1: Offensively inclined. I like that. Pat fitz Morris, do you
Speaker 1: think any of these teams are offensively inclined to go
Speaker 1: over this total? Or are they more offensively challenged at
Speaker 1: this point?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Offensively challenged and this does feel like an undergame, there's
Speaker 2: no question. I mean, we have to call this the
Speaker 2: AFC Disappointment Ball. I would think so far, thank too.
Speaker 4: Two teams.
Speaker 2: They're fan bases we're certainly expecting to see in the
Speaker 2: playoffs this year and have been you know, letdowns to
Speaker 2: say the least. So yeah, looking at this one, I'm
Speaker 2: I don't know how you guys feel, but I feel
Speaker 2: like maybe Denver is a little bit better equipped to
Speaker 2: pick up the slack with a running back hurt, Like
Speaker 2: they're deeper at the position, and maybe they have more
Speaker 2: elsewhere too. I mean the Colts, like I worry about
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan, Like, even though the Colts offensive line is
Speaker 2: is decent, when he doesn't have that running game to
Speaker 2: take the heat off him. I mean, he just he
Speaker 2: looks old this year. Let's face and he looks old.
Speaker 2: And you know, I know Russ has had some struggles too,
Speaker 2: but I just feel like there are more tricks in
Speaker 2: the magic bag for the Broncos than for the Colts.
Speaker 1: And who knows, maybe the injury running back to Javonte
Speaker 1: Williams will force them to really open up this offense
Speaker 1: for once and see what it can do. Maybe I
Speaker 1: don't know, it'd be nice, but you know, I don't
Speaker 1: want to live in disappointment. Let's go to the next
Speaker 1: one here. Speaking of disappointment, the Green Bay Packers narrowly
Speaker 1: have just just by the skin their chinny chin chin.
Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris somehow dodged my Patriots, and of course that
Speaker 1: was all house money in that game. For me, I
Speaker 1: was enjoying the hell out of that. This one is
Speaker 1: actually going to be away nine thirty in the morning start.
Speaker 1: This was going to be in London, so Green Bay
Speaker 1: gets away, far far away from the States. They are
Speaker 1: eight point favorites in this one over the New York
Speaker 1: Football Giants. Forty one and a half is the number
Speaker 1: if you like the upset plus two eighty you're getting
Speaker 1: on the Giants. Pat I know, yesterday maybe you could
Speaker 1: say that the Green Bay Packers weren't taking the Patriots
Speaker 1: as seriously as they should have. Perhaps maybe, but some
Speaker 1: of the problems continue to rear their ugly head with
Speaker 1: this Packers offense.
Speaker 2: It feels like, yeah, they have issues. Their passing game
Speaker 2: is not what it once was, and that seems to
Speaker 2: be luring maybe the occasional safety to the box against
Speaker 2: them to stop the run, which you never see against
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers normally. So yeah, and do we see another
Speaker 2: back up this week with Daniel Jones apparently with an
Speaker 2: ankle injury, so we go maybe from the third stringer
Speaker 2: on the Patriots to the second stringer and the Giants.
Speaker 2: And uh, I saw who that was on Twitter just
Speaker 2: a second ago, and it's already slipped my mind.
Speaker 3: Uh Taylor, Yeah, Taylor appearance briefly yesterday in the game,
Speaker 3: but it was brief.
Speaker 2: So yeah, like, I don't know, Man, it's more than
Speaker 2: a touchdown seems too tall for this game. Even though
Speaker 2: the Giants offense yesterday, man was pretty sickly it was
Speaker 2: it was handed off to Saquon Barkley, or do some
Speaker 2: sort of bootleg where Daniel Jones pulls out and runs
Speaker 2: for his life with two guys chasing him and trying
Speaker 2: to find someone open, And of course there's no one
Speaker 2: open because they've got like you know, David Sills and
Speaker 2: Richie James are their top two wide receivers.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Like, on one hand, I don't know how the Giants
Speaker 2: score in this game other than just repeatedly feeding it
Speaker 2: to Barkley, giving him thirty more carries and letting him
Speaker 2: work on a somewhat soft Packers run defense because they
Speaker 2: can't throw. They just can't throw. But at the same time, like,
Speaker 2: I don't like this Green Bay offense to cover any
Speaker 2: sort of big number, especially when they're not in Lambeaus.
Speaker 1: You feel better now, Pat? Is that good?
Speaker 2: I do I do.
Speaker 1: Next week?
Speaker 2: So I'm Giants fans have some things to work through too,
Speaker 2: even though they're three and one. I mean they're they're
Speaker 2: the two shakiest three and one teams in football right now?
Speaker 1: All right? They speaking of uh, you know shaky, the
Speaker 1: Giants are three and one? Are they the worst three
Speaker 1: and one team in football? Freman?
Speaker 4: Yes they are? Next question.
Speaker 3: No, looking at this game, and yeah, I think that's
Speaker 3: it's generous to call the the Packers run defense somewhat soft.
Speaker 3: They are totally soft against the run. Uh, And so
Speaker 3: that does you know match up well? I mean for
Speaker 3: for the Giants, although it's hard to say that, you know,
Speaker 3: if anything matches up well for them in general, because
Speaker 3: they're so incompetent everywhere. But I have this exactly at
Speaker 3: seven and a half, so we have to wait to see,
Speaker 3: you know, with Daniel Jones, if this number we're forty two,
Speaker 3: I would bet the under, but it's forty one and
Speaker 3: a half forty one in some places. I have it
Speaker 3: exactly at forty one, So I would see value at
Speaker 3: forty two. And we did see an early line at
Speaker 3: forty two, but it's moved down since then, and so
Speaker 3: I don't really see any value in this game.
Speaker 1: Now, speaking of over unders, sleeper has a new game
Speaker 1: for everybody Sleeper is the fastest scoring fantasy platform with
Speaker 1: millions of players already on it, and you probably already
Speaker 1: have a league on there, and if you don't, you
Speaker 1: probably should. And now you can win even more on
Speaker 1: Sleeper by playing their new over under game. It's very simple. First,
Speaker 1: you choose a sport, two or more players that you like,
Speaker 1: and pick the over under for example, rushing yards in
Speaker 1: a football game, number points in a basketball game. Then
Speaker 1: you choose the amount of money you want to enter
Speaker 1: into that contest, and if you pick correctly, you can
Speaker 1: win anywhere from two to twenty times your money. And look,
Speaker 1: I'm excited about the over under Sleeper app because it's
Speaker 1: the only app where I can join friends and contests
Speaker 1: together and play with them and hang out. And I
Speaker 1: think it's a fun thing. If you like the wagering
Speaker 1: space and you're already on Sleeper, it's the perfect marriage
Speaker 1: of all these things. So go check it out today.
Speaker 1: Go download the Sleeper app, Now, play the new over undergame,
Speaker 1: have fun with your friends, make some money. It's a
Speaker 1: win win for everybody. And on your mobile phone, you
Speaker 1: just join that listener group on Sleeper at Sleeper again.
Speaker 1: The actual app name is sleeper and the Sleeper Dot
Speaker 1: app slash Betting proslink is the one you want. That's
Speaker 1: Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. And when you use
Speaker 1: that promo code betting Pros, you get one hundred dollars
Speaker 1: match on your first deposit. Again, that's one word betting
Speaker 1: Pros on the sleeper app. Go play that over under game. Now,
Speaker 1: let's head on to the next game on our list,
Speaker 1: and it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. We think with Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 1: we assume with Kenny Pickett, not that it might change
Speaker 1: the number on this game anyway, because the Buffalo Bills
Speaker 1: are going to be hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, who look
Speaker 1: like a train wreck right now. They are fourteen point favorites.
Speaker 1: So this is a very large gap. Here, forty seven
Speaker 1: is the over under. Let's talk to you about this one, Friedman.
Speaker 1: Here is this number high enough.
Speaker 3: Thirteen and a half at a couple of books where
Speaker 3: I think that creates significant value relative to the consensus
Speaker 3: of fourteen that we're seeing at the rest of the market.
Speaker 3: So I have this at fourteen point twenty five, So
Speaker 3: I mean it's not like a massive numerical difference, but
Speaker 3: going through the key number of fourteen is pretty significant.
Speaker 3: And you know we've got questions, As you said, can
Speaker 3: you Pickett in this game? I know that miss Trubisky
Speaker 3: isn't good, but he's at least a veteran. He didn't
Speaker 3: throw three interceptions yesterday. I have the difference between about
Speaker 3: those interceptions.
Speaker 1: I don't want to interrupt you, but like one was
Speaker 1: in the hands of Chase Claypool and he dropped it,
Speaker 1: and the other I caught it. The other one was
Speaker 1: deflected by another receiver and it was called. And the
Speaker 1: third one was a deep ball that was a chuck
Speaker 1: up at the end. So I don't want to kill
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett. I can't believe I'm the Kenny Picken here
Speaker 1: for those three interceptions. That's not fair.
Speaker 4: That okay, that's fair.
Speaker 3: I was using it more as an illustrative point that
Speaker 3: I do think that Trubisky, even though like he's not good,
Speaker 3: he probably still has an edge over a rookie making
Speaker 3: his first start. So like, I think there should be
Speaker 3: a deduction from Trubisky to Picket. The question is like
Speaker 3: how much of a deduction is that? And then on
Speaker 3: the other hand, we also have Buffalo who I think
Speaker 3: will be getting healthier in this game relative to what
Speaker 3: we've seen in the past couple of weeks. So Christian
Speaker 3: Benford wanted their cornerback to be coming back. Trudeavius White
Speaker 3: is eligible to come back off the pup in this game,
Speaker 3: so like their secondary could be getting a significant boost,
Speaker 3: some of their defensive tackles could return, So I think
Speaker 3: they will be healthier than what we've seen. So thirteen
Speaker 3: and a half I think offers value fourteen is probably
Speaker 3: about right. But the difference between thirteen and a half
Speaker 3: and fourteen at this point of the year is pretty significant,
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 1: I'm in the mind that it can't be worse than
Speaker 1: Mitchell Trubisky here, but it's still not to be good
Speaker 1: against Buffalo pat That's how I look at this one.
Speaker 1: And Buffalo showed a lot of heart yesterday coming back
Speaker 1: down by seventeen points at one point in that game,
Speaker 1: coming back to win on the road. That was a
Speaker 1: huge victory for them, especially after dropping a game to
Speaker 1: Miami the previous week. So what are your thoughts on
Speaker 1: this early line here at fourteen? Is it big enough?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it is big enough, and for me,
Speaker 2: it might be a little too big. I mean, you
Speaker 2: just mentioned it, Joe, Buffalo has been through two pretty
Speaker 2: tough games now, and maybe they have kind of a
Speaker 2: letdown spot. Certainly, this is the worst edition of the
Speaker 2: Steelers that we've seen in a long long time. Like
Speaker 2: I can't remember one really worse than.
Speaker 5: The less I don't know, I'm yeah, I think we're
Speaker 5: going back to it. But maybe they are better for
Speaker 5: having like ripped off the Mitch Trubisky band aid, and
Speaker 5: maybe Kenny Pickett is the guy who better lets them
Speaker 5: leverage the talents of Deontay Johnson, George Pickens, and Chase
Speaker 5: Claypool because Trubisky really wasn't doing that for them. So yeah,
Speaker 5: I think fourteen is a little tall for me here too.
Speaker 5: Even though Friedman is slightly on the Bill side of this,
Speaker 5: I'm kind of slightly on the other side. I think
Speaker 5: maybe there is a little value to getting Pittsburgh at
Speaker 5: less than two touchdowns.
Speaker 3: Let me add just a little context to this, the
Speaker 3: Bills trying out the Bills the Steelers. Out of all
Speaker 3: of the teams that haven't suffered an injury at quarterback,
Speaker 3: the Steelers are the team that I have downgraded the
Speaker 3: most in my power ratings since the season started. So
Speaker 3: there is a possibility that I've overreacted to what we've
Speaker 3: seen out of the Steelers and then I'm discounting, you know,
Speaker 3: pick it too much. So I will say that like
Speaker 3: that is a possibility.
Speaker 1: I mean, in case, don't you want to wait then? Like,
Speaker 1: shouldn't we wait to see if his line grows to
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half or even fifteen plus? Because it
Speaker 1: feels like if you think that Pittsburgh might be pluckier
Speaker 1: here now with a little change of QB and maybe
Speaker 1: Buffalo overlooks them early, or there's garbage time or all
Speaker 1: those circumstances, don't you want the bigger number then and
Speaker 1: maybe be a little more patient on this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if you're on pat side, if you
Speaker 3: like the Steelers, and the Steelers have historically been good
Speaker 3: as underdogs, so like this is kind of their spot.
Speaker 3: If you like the Steelers, I think you wait on
Speaker 3: this number. I don't think it's going to get shorter.
Speaker 2: See I disagree, like I don't want to see I
Speaker 2: think this number could get a little shorter. I don't
Speaker 2: think it goes to fourteen and a half because I
Speaker 2: think people are gonna see those trends like what Mike
Speaker 2: Tomlin has done as an underdog. But I think we
Speaker 2: know we should probably throw those trends out the window
Speaker 2: with this Steelers team because this is not like any
Speaker 2: of Tomlin's other Steelers teams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, TJ. Watt, no Ben Roethlisberger. They're missing a
Speaker 1: lot of pieces that historically we've seen in the past.
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell
Speaker 1: you about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. Sign up
Speaker 1: today with bet MGM and use that promo code betting
Speaker 1: pros when you do, and your first wager is risk
Speaker 1: free up to one thousand dollars. Visit betmgm dot com
Speaker 1: for terms and conditions, and don't forget to use that
Speaker 1: promo code betting Pros. That's one word, betting pros when
Speaker 1: you sign up today. Terms and conditions apply. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Misissippi, Nevada,
Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey, Pensylvania, Perto, Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington,
Speaker 1: d C West Virginia, Wyoming, and Ontario. Only. Must be
Speaker 1: twenty one years or older to wager nineteen or older.
Speaker 1: In Ontario new customer offer. All promotions are subject to
Speaker 1: qualification nowlie Billy requirements. Rewards issued as non with withdrawable
Speaker 1: free bets on site credit free bets expire seven days
Speaker 1: from insurance excludes.
Speaker 4: Michigan.
Speaker 1: Dississi stated persons please gamble responsiblely. Gambling problem called one
Speaker 1: hundred next step in Arizona one one hundred and five
Speaker 1: to two four seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas,
Speaker 1: Louisiana and Nevada, Wyoming or Virginia one eight hundred and
Speaker 1: two seven zero seven one seven for confidential help in
Speaker 1: Michigan one hundred Gambler Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey or West Virginia.
Speaker 1: One eight hundred bets off in Iowa. One hundred nine
Speaker 1: eight one zero zero two three in Puerto Rico called
Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hop E n Y or text
Speaker 1: hop E n Y. In New York, call or text
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight eight nine
Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee, or called one eight
Speaker 1: eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi.
Speaker 1: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns, Patrior gambling
Speaker 1: or someone close to you. Please contact Connects Ontario at
Speaker 1: eight six six five three one two six of zero
Speaker 1: zero to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports
Speaker 1: betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, and Utah and
Speaker 1: other states where prohibitive promotional offers is not available in
Speaker 1: Nevada and New York. And now back to the action
Speaker 1: next one on this list. The Chargers got the two
Speaker 1: and two the Cleveland Browns fell to two and two.
Speaker 1: They are going to be in Cleveland this week. The
Speaker 1: Chargers are three point road favorite to this one. Forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half is the number freedmen will start
Speaker 1: with you in this one. Look, Cleveland had some opportunities
Speaker 1: that are late in the game. They did not take
Speaker 1: advantage of them. Now they go home and lick their
Speaker 1: wounds a little bit. But the Chargers still a team
Speaker 1: that is dealing with a myriad of injuries. Keenan Allen
Speaker 1: was unable to get on the field last week. They
Speaker 1: were missing Bosa, J C. Jackson. Still a lot of
Speaker 1: issues there. So I'll ask you, just out of curiosity,
Speaker 1: is the wrong team favor in this game?
Speaker 3: I don't believe so, but I do like the over
Speaker 3: over forty eight and a half and I bet this
Speaker 3: last night. Both of these teams can score points and
Speaker 3: both of them have wounded defenses. You know, the Browns
Speaker 3: have been much better on offense, and I anticipated with
Speaker 3: you Gobe Brissette being pretty efficient and they're going to
Speaker 3: be able to run all over this Chargers rush defense,
Speaker 3: I mean, probably the worst in the league. If it's
Speaker 3: not Pat's Packers run defense. I mean there, they are bad.
Speaker 3: And we know that the Chargers, on the other hand,
Speaker 3: can score points, and they're going against the defense that
Speaker 3: is pretty wounded, especially on the front, and so I
Speaker 3: don't think they're going to be able to get the
Speaker 3: same pass rush that we would normally expect against the Chargers,
Speaker 3: and so it's not as big of a deal if
Speaker 3: they're missing their you know, all pro left tackle. So
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see points in this game.
Speaker 1: Pat, are you concerned at all? You know, when you
Speaker 1: have Kaream Hunt and Nick Chubb to run the football
Speaker 1: and the Chargers and ability at times to stop the run,
Speaker 1: that once again, maybe this game might be a lot
Speaker 1: higher than people realize.
Speaker 2: It could be. Joe, Like, my first instinct is that
Speaker 2: the Chargers are a much more complete team. But you know,
Speaker 2: they might have the Achilles that the Browns can really
Speaker 2: exploit here with that run defense. And it's the reason
Speaker 2: my instinct says to like the under in this. I
Speaker 2: went on a long rant on our Live Betting Pros
Speaker 2: Game Day live stream yesterday morning about scoffing at such
Speaker 2: a high total for a Jacoby Brissett game with the
Speaker 2: Browns and the Falcons yesterday, and you know, hit the
Speaker 2: under and it did come through. But man, I feel
Speaker 2: a little differently about that this week, with the Browns
Speaker 2: going up against a team that is so ill equipped
Speaker 2: to handle Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's my concern for this one as well. That'll
Speaker 1: be a fascinating outcome. I think the wrong team's just
Speaker 1: straight up, you know, not favored. I think I think
Speaker 1: the Chargers should be the underdog in this game. I
Speaker 1: really do. But we shall find out very soon. The
Speaker 1: Houston Texans, still winless on the year three and one,
Speaker 1: will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville got tested in
Speaker 1: the rains in Philadelphia. It wasn't very sunny there at all.
Speaker 1: Not for the Jaguars. At least. They are seven point favorites,
Speaker 1: though at home against Houston, forty four and a half
Speaker 1: is the number. Now, Pat, I love the Jaguars this year.
Speaker 1: I'm very I'm enjoying this run that they're on, this
Speaker 1: rejuvenated squad here after some miserable seasons, especially last season
Speaker 1: being just the bottom of the barrel. But in this
Speaker 1: case here, are you ready to make them seven point
Speaker 1: favorites even against a team like Houston? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Is it a left down spot for them after you know,
Speaker 2: the big stage of going to Philadelphia and playing a
Speaker 2: game that a lot of people were interested in. And
Speaker 2: I'm still sort of interested in the Jags at seven points.
Speaker 2: If it gets to seven and a half, I'm totally off.
Speaker 2: But like I do think the Texans are pretty overmatched here.
Speaker 2: Like we've seen the Jaguars are pretty capable on both
Speaker 2: sides of the ball, and whatever magic we saw from
Speaker 2: from Davis Mills and the Texans offense, and you know,
Speaker 2: I would hesitate to call it actual magic late last season,
Speaker 2: but that passing game is really not looking as good
Speaker 2: as it did last December. So you know, I'm fairly
Speaker 2: comfortable with the Jaguars here. Is kind of a bigger
Speaker 2: home favorite but I just don't want to see that
Speaker 2: number get to seven and a half, so I might
Speaker 2: grab it at seven today.
Speaker 1: Matt, do you agree that this is the time to
Speaker 1: grab this Jaguars number.
Speaker 4: I don't. I don't know, to be honest.
Speaker 3: I mean, I have this at six point twenty five,
Speaker 3: so I lean slightly towards the Texans, but I assure
Speaker 3: you I am not betting on the Texans in this spot.
Speaker 4: At seven.
Speaker 3: I think it's right around where it should be. I
Speaker 3: in this game actually prefer the over, which I feel
Speaker 3: disgusting saying the overs, because you know, overs have not
Speaker 3: been hitting well this year, although we're about even on
Speaker 3: overs the past two weeks, so yesterday helped.
Speaker 4: I think, Yeah, the.
Speaker 3: Market, the market has evened out on the overs and
Speaker 3: the unders. And you know, forty three and a half
Speaker 3: that is a low number, and this Jags team, they
Speaker 3: can score a lot of points. I have this number
Speaker 3: at forty five, so I bet forty three and a
Speaker 3: half over last night. And man, the Jags they could
Speaker 3: get this all on their own with a couple of
Speaker 3: you know, pill goals from the Texans to help out.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's move to the next one. Here, The Minnesota
Speaker 1: Vikings at home, also seven point favorites here over the
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. The numbers forty three flat, and obviously we
Speaker 1: know that the Bears have not been a good football
Speaker 1: team so far this year. Is this an early opportunity
Speaker 1: to get on the Vikings bandwagon in Week five? Even?
Speaker 3: Man, it's tough because we've got the travel from London
Speaker 3: and so a lot of teams haven't historically opted to
Speaker 3: play the week after London. And I mean the Vikings
Speaker 3: had a weird travel schedule and that they didn't get
Speaker 3: to London until a couple of days before the game,
Speaker 3: whereas the Saints they got there like early in the
Speaker 3: week and they acclimated. So I'm not really sure how
Speaker 3: the travel is going to impact this, and so I'm
Speaker 3: kind of taking more of a hands off approach. I
Speaker 3: do have this at seven point seven to five, so
Speaker 3: you know, in theory, given that this number is at seven,
Speaker 3: there's value there.
Speaker 4: And I might, I don't know, I might be too
Speaker 4: high on Chicago.
Speaker 3: Just given how horrible they are on offense, but I
Speaker 3: still think their defense is pretty decent. So man, I
Speaker 3: don't know seven fields out right?
Speaker 1: How about you pat the seven field right to you,
Speaker 1: or do you think we're giving the Bears too much credit?
Speaker 2: No, I think we're giving the Vikings too much credit.
Speaker 2: I think I think, yeah, I mean, that's it.
Speaker 4: But I mean maybe.
Speaker 2: It's maybe it's my bias in the rivalry showing through here.
Speaker 2: But I think the Vikings are paper tiger and they're
Speaker 2: still getting overvalued because of that Week one game against
Speaker 2: the Packers. And we kind of saw that in London.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Saints were very much evenly matched with them.
Speaker 2: That was pretty much a toss up game. It comes
Speaker 2: down to the bounce of a field goal off the crossbar.
Speaker 2: So I do think the Bears are Yes, they're certainly
Speaker 2: deserving of being a bigger underdog here, but they play
Speaker 2: the kind of football where they can hang in a
Speaker 2: game like this, Like they play conservatively. They're basically just
Speaker 2: trying not to lose field position or give it away
Speaker 2: with turnovers. And like, I don't know, I just I
Speaker 2: don't think the Vikings are going to offul London game,
Speaker 2: off a big travel week like just crush the Bears here.
Speaker 2: I see this being a competitive game, all right.
Speaker 1: Bill, Let's move on to the next one. Here, the
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions in that same division, lost yet again. So
Speaker 1: for all the grit that they talked about in Hard Knocks,
Speaker 1: they're not quite showing enough of it on the field.
Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are home hosting the Lions. They
Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites. The number is
Speaker 1: forty seven in this one. If you like the upset,
Speaker 1: you can get Detroit on the money line at plus
Speaker 1: one twenty pat I know a lot of injuries in
Speaker 1: this game too, Potentially we have to wait to get
Speaker 1: sorted out. I'm on Rossaint Brown. Does DeAndre Swift come back?
Speaker 1: We've also got questions about DJ Hark, We've got questions
Speaker 1: about Mac Jones on the Patriots side. Are there are
Speaker 1: too many questions to get an early beat on this
Speaker 1: game or does that mean it's an opportunity to take
Speaker 1: advantage of one of these sides because of these injuries?
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe an opportunity. I just wonder if the Patriots
Speaker 2: might have too much class here and like a Bill
Speaker 2: Belichick team as this small a favorite, basically saying in
Speaker 2: a neutral site, this is a pick or less. You know,
Speaker 2: home field is no longer worth a full three points.
Speaker 2: It's closer to two and do I like Bill Belichick
Speaker 2: and a coaching matchup with Dan Campbell, absolutely, And you know,
Speaker 2: like if I were playing for Campbell, I'd run through
Speaker 2: a wall for the guy. But I also don't know
Speaker 2: about some of the game management decisions. We know Detroit
Speaker 2: does not hold leeds very well. I just think this
Speaker 2: is kind of a spot where I want to be
Speaker 2: on New England. I mean, we just saw them, like
Speaker 2: give the Packers all they could handle with a third
Speaker 2: string quarterback on the road. So you know, I am
Speaker 2: betting on the class here of the Patriots.
Speaker 1: All right, how about you, Freeman betting on the class
Speaker 1: of the Patriots or the fact that the Patriots might
Speaker 1: be starting Bailey Zappi in this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm on the other side of this, and
Speaker 3: I haven't bet it yet, but I am seeing a
Speaker 3: plus three at Caesar's and I might.
Speaker 4: Bet that after I'm done talking. I have this.
Speaker 3: I have this at plus one for Detroit, So I
Speaker 3: am seeing value there and you know, like one to
Speaker 3: two and a half, there's not that much of a
Speaker 3: difference there, but when you hit three, then their significant
Speaker 3: difference and the Bailey's Appy factor, you know, like I
Speaker 3: don't know if he's worse than Brian Hoyer, but he
Speaker 3: probably is. Like if I'm knocking, can he Pickett a point?
Speaker 3: You know versus Trubisky because it's his first NFL start?
Speaker 3: I should probably do something similar for Zappy versus Brian Hoyer.
Speaker 3: And you know they are they being the Lions. They
Speaker 3: are missing a number of players, but some of those
Speaker 3: guys are going to come back this week, like DeAndre Swift,
Speaker 3: He's probably out, but a mon ros Saint Brown Chark
Speaker 3: was close to playing last week. Both of those guys
Speaker 3: might come back. They also might get back left guard
Speaker 3: Jonah Jackson. You know their kicker, Austin Sebert, he might
Speaker 3: come back.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I I'm on Detroit. You know Dan Campbell as a favorite,
Speaker 3: that's not where you want to be. But Dan Campbell
Speaker 3: is an underdog. That is when the Lions start to bark,
Speaker 3: to mix everything together. So I think I'm gonna be
Speaker 3: on the Lions in this spot.
Speaker 1: Lions are barking here on the show. There you go.
Speaker 1: You have it, Seattle at New Orleans in this one,
Speaker 1: New Orleans loses on the double doink four and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites in this one, regardless at home against
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. Forty three and a half is the number.
Speaker 1: If you like the Seahawks upset, it is plus one
Speaker 1: point eighty right now on the money line to take
Speaker 1: them outright, Gino Smith, Sean Penny, Seattle Seahawks yesterday getting
Speaker 1: the job done. Friedman, any any chance you were repressed
Speaker 1: enough with what you saw out of the Seahawks yesterday
Speaker 1: to be concerned for this four and a half on
Speaker 1: the New Orleans.
Speaker 4: Side, talk to Fitz because I am betting.
Speaker 1: The last week sure fits same question to you, my friend. Look,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Seahawks have you want to
Speaker 1: talk about. Pluckiness is something you mentioned on the show
Speaker 1: quite a bit. The Seahawks have kind of shown that
Speaker 1: a little bit. It's kind of them against the world
Speaker 1: and this is another perfect setup and Alva Kamara was
Speaker 1: out for that last game and Winston once again. A
Speaker 1: lot of injuries here or four and a half number,
Speaker 1: I think is kind of telling you in a perfect world,
Speaker 1: if everybody's healthy, and when the Saints were winning games,
Speaker 1: this is probably a six, right or a six and
Speaker 1: a half. But it's four and a half right now.
Speaker 1: So do you feel like this is an opportunity or
Speaker 1: do you feel this is a trap?
Speaker 2: I feel like this is a stay away for me, Joe.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Seattle offense has been fun. And how
Speaker 2: hilarious is it that we have gotten the narrative for
Speaker 2: so many years about like Ross being constrained, having these
Speaker 2: manacles on him by Pete Carroll and the design of
Speaker 2: the Seattle offense and now they trade him get you know,
Speaker 2: a bevy of draft capital in return, and now they're
Speaker 2: running this wide open, fun offense everyone wanted to see
Speaker 2: all along.
Speaker 1: It hasn't been fun all year, but it was funny, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so and doing it with Gino smethic quarterback. So yeah,
Speaker 2: but yeah, there's it's one thing to go against Detroit's defense,
Speaker 2: It's another to go against a professional defense, which is
Speaker 2: what New Orleans has. So I don't know if we're
Speaker 2: going to see the same sort of pyrotechnics from the
Speaker 2: Seattle offense that we saw yesterday. And yeah, I just
Speaker 2: like I think these numbers are about right. Like the
Speaker 2: wild card is maybe the travel situation for the Saints.
Speaker 2: Do they have sort of a letdown after losing a
Speaker 2: game that they were highly competitive in and such a
Speaker 2: heartbreaking way, you know, coming back to a game they
Speaker 2: should win, but do they Maybe? I don't know. Is
Speaker 2: this a letdown spot for them? I just I don't
Speaker 2: really feel anything about this game. I think it could
Speaker 2: go any which way and I kind of don't want
Speaker 2: to touch it.
Speaker 1: Well, Friedman, here's another team traveling back from London. They're
Speaker 1: going to face the Seahawks. Certainly this feels very trappy
Speaker 1: for New Orleans. They lost, well, they could have tied
Speaker 1: the game. Let's put that way on the field goal
Speaker 1: and things that not go their way. It's a long
Speaker 1: flight back to think about all the things that went wrong.
Speaker 1: How do you look at this contest you're coming up
Speaker 1: in Week five between the Saints and the Seahawks.
Speaker 3: I have this number at four point seventy five, So
Speaker 3: the consensus is five. I don't really see any value
Speaker 3: it's and this this New Orleans scene, there are so
Speaker 3: many injury questions with it. We don't know if Andy
Speaker 3: Dalton starting or if it's Jameis Winston. Michael Thomas was out,
Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara was out, you know, mark Ingram was in
Speaker 3: and out of the game.
Speaker 4: Left guard Andrews Pete.
Speaker 3: So like they're just They're dealing with so many injuries,
Speaker 3: and Seattle is running so well right now. It's like
Speaker 3: it's like the guy who gets divorced, uh, and like
Speaker 3: everything that the ex wife was like complaining about, he's
Speaker 3: now like doing with the new wife. It's like, oh,
Speaker 3: we're taking the trip to to London, you know, like everything.
Speaker 3: It's like the ex wife is just looking at this
Speaker 3: being like, why can't you do that when we were together? Anyway,
Speaker 3: That's that's like what's going on with Seattle right now.
Speaker 3: I don't know what to make out of that offense,
Speaker 3: Like is this something that is sustainable or is it not?
Speaker 4: I have this near the number. I'm just staying away, Okay.
Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating upset. I just don't think
Speaker 1: New Orleans is as good as people want to get.
Speaker 1: I think they're living in the past when it comes
Speaker 1: to New Orleans a little bit. This team. They just
Speaker 1: don't seem to have any sort of cohesion to this
Speaker 1: unit at all. The Jets might not be the doormat
Speaker 1: they used to be. I don't know if there's good
Speaker 1: to a good football team quite yet either. They are
Speaker 1: three point underdogs at home this week against Miami Miami's
Speaker 1: three and one. The Jets are two and two. They
Speaker 1: were very competitive in that game against the Steelers. Granted
Speaker 1: it was the Steelers, but it was in Pittsburgh. Forty
Speaker 1: four and a half is the number if you like
Speaker 1: the Jets for the upsets plus one twenty five on
Speaker 1: the money line. Freedman, I know Zach Wilson's return yesterday.
Speaker 1: I don't think you can call it triumphant, but he
Speaker 1: did have some moments certainly in that game, as did
Speaker 1: the offense in general. And Miami still looking like most
Speaker 1: likely Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback for them. So how much
Speaker 1: of an impact does that make on this line for
Speaker 1: you when you're looking at this game early Monday morning.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Zach Wilson returned, that's what we can say. And
Speaker 3: with Tua, the drop from Tua to Teddy, that is
Speaker 3: a real question because before the season started I would
Speaker 3: have had I don't know, some smart people had that
Speaker 3: number two, like multiple people had that number two. It
Speaker 3: would have felt a little bit closer to me. But
Speaker 3: we have seen Tua play really well this year, and
Speaker 3: you know, I think some of that is the system,
Speaker 3: but you know, maybe I should also assume some of
Speaker 3: that is just too a with a competent, competent group
Speaker 3: around him, with coaches, with the receivers actually progressing and
Speaker 3: taking a step forward. So I have that number right
Speaker 3: now as one and a half point difference. Maybe I
Speaker 3: should go to two, but either way, I have this
Speaker 3: number right around where it is now. The number is
Speaker 3: three in the market. I have Miami at three point
Speaker 3: twenty five. So if it's I don't really see any.
Speaker 4: Value on it.
Speaker 1: Fits Do you see any early value at all in
Speaker 1: this game?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I think the Jets are kind of a plucky dog here,
Speaker 2: and I think we're still the betting public is maybe
Speaker 2: still it has the image of the Jets as lovable losers,
Speaker 2: and maybe they are starting to shed that a little bit.
Speaker 2: And for all the for everything they've handled, the Wilson
Speaker 2: injury and the preseason having to roll out with Joe
Speaker 2: Flack at the beginning of the season, that the rotating
Speaker 2: cast they've had to use it left tackle, this defense
Speaker 2: is starting to get legitimate. Sauce Gardner like his gives them.
Speaker 2: They did not have someone they could lean on in
Speaker 2: their secondary to cover top receivers last year, and I
Speaker 2: think they've got that now with Sauce Gardner, Like, I
Speaker 2: think this team is for real and you know Miami
Speaker 2: with the quarterback change. I agree with Friedman, I, you know,
Speaker 2: tend to think it's maybe worth less than two points.
Speaker 2: You know, we've we've seen Teddy be a competent. He's uh,
Speaker 2: you know, as our friend Scott Piinowski, Yaho would say,
Speaker 2: he is a spare tire. He's the donut. Like he
Speaker 2: can he can get you across town to go to
Speaker 2: a yoga session or go get groceries. But you don't
Speaker 2: want to go across state lines with him for you know,
Speaker 2: more than a short period. So yeah, like I see
Speaker 2: a little value in the Jets here, Like I think
Speaker 2: they're a legitimate team. Maybe Zach Wilson is a downgrade
Speaker 2: from Joe Flacco, but he's got some weapons, man like
Speaker 2: Dog Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore. And he seems to love
Speaker 2: Corey Davis too.
Speaker 1: He does. So Corey Davis was the big standout to
Speaker 1: me yesterday in those games, those big moments, that's what
Speaker 1: he was looking for and that's we found in that
Speaker 1: game against the Steward.
Speaker 2: Yesy, and I can't fail to mention Tyler Conklin who
Speaker 2: you know, is very good and looks like Kyle Drogo
Speaker 2: from a Game of Thrones, so also.
Speaker 1: A good look. Yeah, yes, yeah, we all wish we
Speaker 1: could look like that. Atlanta Falcons at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 1: Oh man, Tampa got down early and it just wasn't
Speaker 1: enough for them to come back in that game. They
Speaker 1: are eight and a half point favorites though this week
Speaker 1: against the Atlanta Falcons as they travel to Tampa. Forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half is the number for this one.
Speaker 1: So Pat, let's talk about this. We've seen a lot
Speaker 1: bigger numbers this week than we've seen I think all year,
Speaker 1: probably a bit of the schedule, but probably also just
Speaker 1: finally getting a little bit more of an identity of
Speaker 1: some of these teams. So do we have enough of
Speaker 1: identity of the Falcons right now at this juncture to
Speaker 1: think that Tampa's going to stomp them to an eight
Speaker 1: and a half point deficit here? Yeah?
Speaker 4: Maybe not.
Speaker 2: I mean, Atlanta has been pretty plucky so far, but
Speaker 2: I'm a little less inclined to do anything with the
Speaker 2: side here than the total, which I think is a
Speaker 2: tad high. I just don't think this Buccaneers offense is
Speaker 2: as dangerous as it was last year, And it seems
Speaker 2: to me like there are times when it looks like
Speaker 2: Brady just wants to get rid of the ball quickly,
Speaker 2: like you know, he is very eager to just check
Speaker 2: down and not take a hit. And you know we're
Speaker 2: seeing these at all two and three yard Leonard Fournette
Speaker 2: completions wide of the field. Sometimes it seems like even
Speaker 2: before the Buccaneers receivers have time to get into their patterns.
Speaker 2: So this number does seem a little tall because I've
Speaker 2: never really believed in the Atlanta offense, and I don't
Speaker 2: know if the Bucks can push this one over themselves.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, the Bucks defense certainly had a longer night
Speaker 1: at the offense last night. Excuse me, longer night the
Speaker 1: office last night, Friedman. When you are looking at this
Speaker 1: number here and what you've seen other Bucks this year,
Speaker 1: it seems like Tom Brady either says it's Mike Evans
Speaker 1: or it's nobody. So is that going to be enough
Speaker 1: in this one to really get them over that eight
Speaker 1: and a half number? In your opinion?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this very close to ten, just to
Speaker 3: shade under ten. So I am on the Buccaneers in
Speaker 3: this spot, but I will say maybe I haven't been
Speaker 3: quick enough to adjust them down.
Speaker 4: But I still think they have one of the best
Speaker 4: defenses in the.
Speaker 3: League, regardless of what we saw last night against a
Speaker 3: very good Chiefs offense, and with the weapons that they
Speaker 3: have returning, I think the offense will progressively improve. So
Speaker 3: I like the Falcons. I like their offense, but I
Speaker 3: think their defense still has a lot of vulnerabilities. So
Speaker 3: I am on the Buccaneers in this spot, and you know,
Speaker 3: like Tom Brady coming off of a loss, I just
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna smash in this spot.
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, fresh off and important win, are two and
Speaker 1: a half my favorites on the road against Washington, who
Speaker 1: got pummeled by Dallas as many of us thought that
Speaker 1: they would in that defense. So no surprise there. Forty
Speaker 1: two and a half is the number for this one.
Speaker 1: But I have to ask this readman, is this the
Speaker 1: classic Tennessee Titans let down where they look good, they
Speaker 1: big that big game, they've got it against the Colts,
Speaker 1: and then they go and they drop a turd basically
Speaker 1: over in Washington. Because it seems like this is just
Speaker 1: shaping up to be one of those kind of moments.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this it feels like for both teams. This is
Speaker 3: the kind of spot in which Carson Wentz would somehow
Speaker 3: like be a competent quarterback and the Titans would look
Speaker 3: like an offense that just has no idea what they're doing.
Speaker 4: So I have this number very close to it. Pick them.
Speaker 4: I have it ate point twenty five.
Speaker 3: And I feel disgusting being on the Commanders in this spot,
Speaker 3: which might be the sign that this is the right
Speaker 3: side here. So I am on the Commanders. I bet
Speaker 3: it last night at plus three. I think you can
Speaker 3: still find that number in a couple of books. But
Speaker 3: plus two five is in the market, not nearly attractive,
Speaker 3: but I still see value at that number.
Speaker 1: Plus one twenty five on the money line. Come on, fits,
Speaker 1: let's go. This has got to be classics, classic Tennessee
Speaker 1: Titans right at this time, where you know, they win
Speaker 1: the game you're worried about, and then they go on
Speaker 1: the road and they lose the game that they probably
Speaker 1: should romp on somebody. But I mean, I know the
Speaker 1: Commanders looked terrible last week, but you got to shake
Speaker 1: that off because it's week to week here in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Your thoughts on the Commander's opportunity here to maybe even
Speaker 1: upset the Titans outright.
Speaker 2: Like Friedman doing a look aheadlines on Sunday morning before
Speaker 2: the Week four action took place, or at least the
Speaker 2: Week four Sunday action. I had this game as a pick.
Speaker 2: I'm also, and then we saw Washington go out and
Speaker 2: look absolutely terrible, So I guess that is the reason
Speaker 2: this line is opening where it is. Yeah, Washington's offense
Speaker 2: was very functional in the first two weeks of the season,
Speaker 2: and it is completely driven off the road in the
Speaker 2: last two weeks of the season.
Speaker 1: I don't know by good pass rushes, to be honest. Yeah,
Speaker 1: those teams had good pass rushes, So I don't think
Speaker 1: the Titans pass rush is the same thing as like,
Speaker 1: you know, Micah Parsons and Marcus Lawrence.
Speaker 2: No exactly, There's there's no Harold Landry, so like this
Speaker 2: is definitely a better spot for Washington to rebound. So, yes,
Speaker 2: as gross as it feels too on the side of
Speaker 2: the Commanders, that's where I am too.
Speaker 1: All Right, we haven't seen anything yet tonight. We have
Speaker 1: to wait for the forty nine Ers and Rams to
Speaker 1: see what those two teams do. But in the meantime,
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers are regardless four and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Oh,
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers have one win. The number for this
Speaker 1: game is thirty nine and a half. Is that number
Speaker 1: low enough fits?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it is. Boy, it is just and
Speaker 2: I've got this, uh, I've got you know, Carolina's four
Speaker 2: point dogs instead of four and a half. But I
Speaker 2: refuse to recognize value with a Baker Mayfield quarterbacks team.
Speaker 2: So yeah, like I just I can't. I can't back
Speaker 2: the Panthers right now. That offense is just too you know,
Speaker 2: an offense with Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore just to
Speaker 2: be non functional. At this point, I wonder how soon
Speaker 2: we're gonna see Sam Darnold back in you know, once
Speaker 2: his uh.
Speaker 1: Well just got chills when just straight up my spine,
Speaker 1: I think, say, maybe it's time we don't see Matt rule.
Speaker 1: That's what I thought. That was probably a more likely scenario.
Speaker 2: Getting close to that time too. But think of that
Speaker 2: where the fans might be relieved to see Sam Darnold's
Speaker 2: or maybe you know, skip directly to Sam Howell some
Speaker 2: sort of Sam, but not Baker Mayfield anymore, because I
Speaker 2: just don't want to watch any more of him running
Speaker 2: this offense.
Speaker 1: Friedman, have you seen enough of the Panthers here? Do
Speaker 1: you think that they stand a chance of this number?
Speaker 1: Four and a half?
Speaker 3: Where I have this exactly for I think the total
Speaker 3: is about right. Let's move on to the next game.
Speaker 1: All right, very good? So running away. These gentlemen are
Speaker 1: no courage at all in this game. I don't blame them.
Speaker 1: I have no faith either. Philadelphia Eagle is the only
Speaker 1: undefeated team left in the NFL. They are five and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites traveling to Arizona team with no defense.
Speaker 1: Forty nine and is half is the number. Now, the
Speaker 1: Cardinals did get a w yesterday. There's some things that
Speaker 1: certainly went their way. The defense did create some turnovers,
Speaker 1: make some moments, so I want to give them some
Speaker 1: credit here. But this is a different class of opponent.
Speaker 1: I think this week where you're getting the Philadelphia Eagles
Speaker 1: coming to town. So Friedman, five and a half. The
Speaker 1: weather will not be an issue in this game. This
Speaker 1: is in Arizona. So do you think that this number
Speaker 1: might be too small?
Speaker 3: I bet this at six at DraftKings I did it
Speaker 3: last night.
Speaker 4: That number is still available. I feel disgusting doing it.
Speaker 3: You know, Arizona I have very little faith in them organizationally,
Speaker 3: I have no faith in head coach Cliff Kingsbury. I
Speaker 3: do have a little bit of faith in Kyler Murray
Speaker 3: and Phoenix.
Speaker 4: Not Phoenix, Philadelphia.
Speaker 3: They got a little they got a little beat up
Speaker 3: on Sunday. Left tackle Jordan Mulatto left the game, They
Speaker 3: lost their right guard, they lost Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox
Speaker 3: wasn't playing, like not all of those guys are going
Speaker 3: to return. And Philadelphia at four, and oh, I think
Speaker 3: the hype is just getting a little too strong here.
Speaker 3: And so I am on the Cardinals and I'm just
Speaker 3: holding my breath because I don't feel good about it.
Speaker 3: But I do see value in this. I think this
Speaker 3: number should be about three.
Speaker 1: All right, fits, How do you feel Freeman brings up
Speaker 1: some of those injuries now? At the same time, the
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals have not been a very good football team,
Speaker 1: let's be honest, so far this year, and despite a
Speaker 1: couple of wins, I think some of things have really
Speaker 1: bounced their way for some of those victories. The Eagles
Speaker 1: seem like a much better team just in terms of
Speaker 1: a class above them, regardless of the pieces they might
Speaker 1: be missing. But is it enough in this game for you?
Speaker 2: Oh, the Eagles are definitely better, but they are traveling
Speaker 2: cross country in this game. Friedman mentioned the injury concerns,
Speaker 2: and just as last week when Friedman and I thought
Speaker 2: it was pretty gross to be betting the Cardinals in Carolina,
Speaker 2: we did it and that was the way to go.
Speaker 2: And I kind of feel the same way that there's
Speaker 2: value to the Cardinals as a home dog here.
Speaker 1: All right. The Dallas Cowboys, at three and one, will
Speaker 1: travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams. The Rams
Speaker 1: will be five and a half point favorites, and this one,
Speaker 1: forty five and a half is the number. This one
Speaker 1: feels about right. I want to give the Cowboys some credit, though,
Speaker 1: because they've certainly been more petitive with Cooper RuSHA I
Speaker 1: think any of us thought they might be. Is this
Speaker 1: another one of those spots where they're more competitive than
Speaker 1: we think they might be fits or is this them
Speaker 1: just getting out class potentially by the Rams on the road.
Speaker 2: No, I think they could be more competitive than we
Speaker 2: think and that's seven and a half is big, and
Speaker 2: that's the reason I have no interest in the Rams
Speaker 2: and maybe some interest in the Cowboys at this number,
Speaker 2: but I think I'm more interested in the under here.
Speaker 2: Like this Dallas defense is for real and it's pretty ferocious,
Speaker 2: and we've not seen the Rams offense in on all
Speaker 2: cylinders at any real point this season. So plus they're
Speaker 2: going to be coming off a short week following the
Speaker 2: Monday night game, and you know, Dallas obviously as offensive
Speaker 2: limitations of their own with Cooper Rush at quarterback, although
Speaker 2: he has been a very competent game manager in Dak
Speaker 2: Prescott's absence, so to me, like I had the total
Speaker 2: at forty four, So I see definite opportunity here with
Speaker 2: the under, but I don't think I'm going to play
Speaker 2: a side.
Speaker 1: How about you here, Friedman? With that defense and the
Speaker 1: game management of Cooper Rush, is that enough here? Or
Speaker 1: maybe this five and a half number isn't really as
Speaker 1: safe as people think it is.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm upset myself for not betting this at six
Speaker 3: and a half last night. I think I think there's
Speaker 3: a real chance that this is the game Dak Prescott returns.
Speaker 4: You know, there are reports.
Speaker 3: Adam Schefter yesterday said that Dak Prescott is eyeing Week
Speaker 3: five as a possible return date, and so I think
Speaker 3: there is the possibility. And even if that doesn't happen,
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush has been more than competent as the fill in,
Speaker 3: and the Rams are also pretty injured, both on the
Speaker 3: offensive line and in the secondary. So, you know, at
Speaker 3: five and a half, I think this number is pretty
Speaker 3: close to where it should be. Let me see where
Speaker 3: I have it right now. I have it at five
Speaker 3: point twenty five, which is kind of factoring in like
Speaker 3: the possibility of Dak returning at six and a half.
Speaker 4: I think there would value there.
Speaker 1: Okay, moving on to the next contest, we have the
Speaker 1: primetime game Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens three and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals. This one could
Speaker 1: be very fun. Forty seven and a half is the
Speaker 1: number here in this one, Freeman, Is that over under
Speaker 1: total a little on the lower side, you think for
Speaker 1: these two offenses? Let me see here, Well, these two defenses,
Speaker 1: I couldn't even phrase it that way.
Speaker 4: I have this close to fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that sounds about right to me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I do see value there, and honestly, I
Speaker 3: see value on the Bengals. It feels a little wrong
Speaker 3: to say that because I have been really impressed by
Speaker 3: the Ravens. But three and a half in a divisional
Speaker 3: game with Cincinnati getting extra rest, I think there is value.
Speaker 1: There Cincinnati getting extra rest. But well, the Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: lose two home games in a row, fits you think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the trend I worry about because I did
Speaker 2: have this as more of like a two point game.
Speaker 2: I feel like on a neutral site, these teams are even.
Speaker 2: But that's the thing, Like, I don't like betting against
Speaker 2: the Ravens when they're playing at home, especially coming off
Speaker 2: a home loss, So I might just settle on playing
Speaker 2: the over, which like Freeman, I don't have it as
Speaker 2: high as he had. I had it at forty eight,
Speaker 2: and you said it's forty seven and a half, right,
Speaker 2: So you know, a little bit of value on my projection,
Speaker 2: A lot of value in Freedman's projection.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the over the way these two defenses
Speaker 1: have played so far this year. Give me the over
Speaker 1: in this one. Las Vegas Raiders will head to Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Kansas City is seven and a half point favorites in
Speaker 1: this one. Fifty two and a half is the number,
Speaker 1: so fits you know, it's an indivision game. Sometimes we
Speaker 1: say those are always a little bit more peculiar than
Speaker 1: people ever expect. Could this end up becoming another one
Speaker 1: of those games where you know, you see the Kansas
Speaker 1: Chiefs look really good one week, and then next week
Speaker 1: they're at home and they struggle against the Raiders. Do
Speaker 1: you think they smash in this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I've learned some hard lessons about the perceived invincibility
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs in the past betting them at big numbers.
Speaker 2: Once again, I'm kind of inclined to lay the points
Speaker 2: with the Chiefs. But maybe it is one of those
Speaker 2: things where after just coming out of the gate, roaring
Speaker 2: out of the gate against the Buccaneers on Sunday night,
Speaker 2: where they just struggle to move the ball against the Raiders,
Speaker 2: like it's plausible, but it's kind of improbable because the
Speaker 2: Raiders are still a little bit banged up in the secondary.
Speaker 2: That's not what you want to be going against the
Speaker 2: Chiefs and Arrowhead. So I do see some value in
Speaker 2: the Chiefs here, even as a big home favorite.
Speaker 1: All Right, do you like the spread here or maybe
Speaker 1: the fifty two and a half number over? What are
Speaker 1: your thoughts here, Friedman on this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this number is seven at DraftKings. That's the only
Speaker 3: seven I'm seeing in the market right now. And I
Speaker 3: would bet that I bet this on the look ahead
Speaker 3: at six and a half. Was, you know, obviously very
Speaker 3: happy to get that. I still see value at seven
Speaker 3: because I think this number should be about nine. And
Speaker 3: the Raiders, Yeah, they got to win yesterday and there
Speaker 3: was a lot of luck involved in getting that win.
Speaker 3: I mean, now you could say there was some luck
Speaker 3: involved in them not winning some of their earlier games,
Speaker 3: but you know, they had a fumble six like to
Speaker 3: swing this game. Like, I think that the Raiders are
Speaker 3: still pretty fraudulent, and I think the Chiefs are, if
Speaker 3: not the best team in the league. Is that should be,
Speaker 3: you know, the Bills and anyone's power ratings, But I
Speaker 3: think the Chiefs are pretty cleanly the number two team
Speaker 3: in the league, and I think they take care business here.
Speaker 1: All right, let's take care of business here with the
Speaker 1: boys and find their favorite early look ahead bets for
Speaker 1: Week five in the NFL. For even let's stick with
Speaker 1: you give me your three favorite things that you saw
Speaker 1: so far this morning that you want people to jump on.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Washington plus three. I still think there's value there
Speaker 3: against Tennessee. We have Fits and I both talked about
Speaker 3: Arizona plus six against Philadelphia.
Speaker 4: Arizona at home.
Speaker 3: It's a disgusting bet, but Arizona is underdogs, you know,
Speaker 3: that's when they historically outperformed. And then yeah, Kansas City
Speaker 3: minus seven against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 4: I will be on that all day long.
Speaker 1: All right, Fits you, what are your three favorites looking
Speaker 1: ahead to Week five?
Speaker 2: J E t SS jets ch Jets No like that
Speaker 2: getting getting the field goal against the Dolphins, and presumably
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater, the backup quarterback. I think this is a
Speaker 2: different Jets team and they're still getting undervalued. Uh. The Cardinals. Uh,
Speaker 2: we're gonna keep riding this train together, Friedman, you and
Speaker 2: I before it goes over the over, off the rails
Speaker 2: and over a cliff. Yeah, yeah, we are going to
Speaker 2: take the six points. And uh, finally, I also agree
Speaker 2: with that Chiefs pick minus seven, Like that's just not
Speaker 2: enough for them against the Raiders.
Speaker 1: That's your early look ahead for week five in the NFL.
Speaker 1: If you need more help, you can always go to
Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com, where we have all kinds of amazing content.
Speaker 1: We've got the prop bet cheat sheet, We've got incredible
Speaker 1: tools and articles to help you get everything you need
Speaker 1: and don't forget to subscribe to our Betting Pros channel
Speaker 1: over on YouTube YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros and
Speaker 1: go play a little over under game have some fun
Speaker 1: with your friends. Sleeper app. Go to Sleeper dot app
Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros that Sleeper dot app slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Use the promo code betting Pros when you sign up,
Speaker 1: and you'll get a one hundred dollars deposit match on
Speaker 1: your first deposit. Doesn't get much better than that, except
Speaker 1: maybe hanging out with these two guys and talking football
Speaker 1: every single Monday morning. I love it. Little Monday morning
Speaker 1: quarterbacking for the week ahead. That'll do it for us.
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Pet
Speaker 1: and Matt. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,