WEBVTT - NFL Week 5 Lookahead (Ep 212) 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:03.400 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:24.079 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe, 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:26.599 Pi's apia And if you can believe it already, it's 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.000 week five in the NFL. So we're going to look ahead. 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:31.360 Leave week four in the dust, especially with some of 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:34.000 those injuries. Were still waiting on some word for those. 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.239 We still got one more Monday night football game to go, 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:39.120 but that will not stop us from looking ahead. We're 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:43.320 always trying to pursue onward. We're like great explorers. It's 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:45.480 like Lewis and Clark. But I couldn't get those two guys, 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.639 So instead I got paf fitz Morris, and I got 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:49.680 Matthew Friedman here to help me break it all down. 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:52.920 And we're going to do just that this morning. Pat. 0:00:52.960 --> 0:00:55.560 I'm sure you, like everybody else, had you know, an 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:59.000 enormous over in that Seattle Detroit game yesterday. 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.720 Right, oh man? What a tract? Yeah? Like I want 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.040 to go back and watch that one again. I mean it, 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:07.000 it was on along with several other games, but I 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:09.520 just like how we got to that point where there 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.440 were almost one hundred points scored in that game. That 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:14.920 was just wild. And by the way, start all your 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:17.959 fantasy players against the Seahawks and Lions. 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:21.440 Yes, yes, that is very good advice. In the crossover, 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:24.120 Matthew Friedman, before you completely leave Week four in the 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.560 dust two. We got Kenny Pickett, we got Bailey Zappi. 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:29.360 What a time to be alive, right. 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:32.440 Yeah, I mean one of those guys might end up 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:34.880 being Rookie of the Year, which is real indictment on 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:35.840 the rookies this year. 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:40.480 But he's not bitter at all. All right, let's continue on, 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:43.600 and we'll start with the Thursday night football game, which 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:46.200 already has two running backs who probably are not going 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:47.960 to be playing in this one. We think we're still 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.920 waiting for word as we get it, probably definitely not 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:54.520 so much Vonte Williams in this game, Jonathan Taylor. We're 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:57.120 still waiting on word. But this number right now is 0:01:57.160 --> 0:01:59.760 forty three and a half is the total you're looking 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:03.480 at Indianapolis traveling to Denver and Denver being three point 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:05.960 road favorites in this game. If you like the Indianapolis 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:09.560 upset right now, it's plus one forty over bettingpros dot Com. Freedman, 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:11.600 I know there's a lot of uncertainty right now in 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:14.640 this game. Does that lend itself to early opportunity or 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.840 is this more of a cautionary tale to stay away? 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:18.120 Maybe? 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:20.200 I mean, I bet the under. I've already bet under 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:22.960 forty three and a half. I don't think either team 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:27.200 is really all that offensively inclined, and they're missing some 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:29.840 of their better weapons in terms of the spread. I 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.720 do have this right around where the market is at three, 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:34.320 so I don't see any value there. 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:35.880 But I do like the under. 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.400 Offensively inclined. I like that. Pat fitz Morris, do you 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:42.600 think any of these teams are offensively inclined to go 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.640 over this total? Or are they more offensively challenged at 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:46.000 this point? 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:46.560 Yeah? 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:49.440 Offensively challenged and this does feel like an undergame, there's 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:51.400 no question. I mean, we have to call this the 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.839 AFC Disappointment Ball. I would think so far, thank too. 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:56.280 Two teams. 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:59.560 They're fan bases we're certainly expecting to see in the 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.600 playoffs this year and have been you know, letdowns to 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.480 say the least. So yeah, looking at this one, I'm 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:07.680 I don't know how you guys feel, but I feel 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.320 like maybe Denver is a little bit better equipped to 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.160 pick up the slack with a running back hurt, Like 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:17.160 they're deeper at the position, and maybe they have more 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.200 elsewhere too. I mean the Colts, like I worry about 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:23.280 Matt Ryan, Like, even though the Colts offensive line is 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.560 is decent, when he doesn't have that running game to 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:28.960 take the heat off him. I mean, he just he 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:31.519 looks old this year. Let's face and he looks old. 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.639 And you know, I know Russ has had some struggles too, 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.120 but I just feel like there are more tricks in 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.040 the magic bag for the Broncos than for the Colts. 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:44.120 And who knows, maybe the injury running back to Javonte 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:46.640 Williams will force them to really open up this offense 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:48.800 for once and see what it can do. Maybe I 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.320 don't know, it'd be nice, but you know, I don't 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.800 want to live in disappointment. Let's go to the next 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.840 one here. Speaking of disappointment, the Green Bay Packers narrowly 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.920 have just just by the skin their chinny chin chin. 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:05.280 Pat Fitzmorris somehow dodged my Patriots, and of course that 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:07.440 was all house money in that game. For me, I 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.320 was enjoying the hell out of that. This one is 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.440 actually going to be away nine thirty in the morning start. 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:13.960 This was going to be in London, so Green Bay 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:16.160 gets away, far far away from the States. They are 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:17.720 eight point favorites in this one over the New York 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:20.359 Football Giants. Forty one and a half is the number 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.599 if you like the upset plus two eighty you're getting 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:27.880 on the Giants. Pat I know, yesterday maybe you could 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.000 say that the Green Bay Packers weren't taking the Patriots 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.080 as seriously as they should have. Perhaps maybe, but some 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.320 of the problems continue to rear their ugly head with 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:38.200 this Packers offense. 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:42.360 It feels like, yeah, they have issues. Their passing game 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:44.880 is not what it once was, and that seems to 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:48.839 be luring maybe the occasional safety to the box against 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:51.000 them to stop the run, which you never see against 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:56.120 Aaron Rodgers normally. So yeah, and do we see another 0:04:56.520 --> 0:05:00.400 back up this week with Daniel Jones apparently with an 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:02.960 ankle injury, so we go maybe from the third stringer 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.240 on the Patriots to the second stringer and the Giants. 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:08.560 And uh, I saw who that was on Twitter just 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:10.719 a second ago, and it's already slipped my mind. 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:18.600 Uh Taylor, Yeah, Taylor appearance briefly yesterday in the game, 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:20.440 but it was brief. 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.760 So yeah, like, I don't know, Man, it's more than 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:29.279 a touchdown seems too tall for this game. Even though 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:32.920 the Giants offense yesterday, man was pretty sickly it was 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:36.920 it was handed off to Saquon Barkley, or do some 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:40.359 sort of bootleg where Daniel Jones pulls out and runs 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.400 for his life with two guys chasing him and trying 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.080 to find someone open, And of course there's no one 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.360 open because they've got like you know, David Sills and 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:50.920 Richie James are their top two wide receivers. 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:51.640 Yeah. 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.000 Like, on one hand, I don't know how the Giants 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:56.760 score in this game other than just repeatedly feeding it 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.960 to Barkley, giving him thirty more carries and letting him 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:03.680 work on a somewhat soft Packers run defense because they 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:07.400 can't throw. They just can't throw. But at the same time, like, 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:09.640 I don't like this Green Bay offense to cover any 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:14.120 sort of big number, especially when they're not in Lambeaus. 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:18.560 You feel better now, Pat? Is that good? 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:19.400 I do I do. 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:21.400 Next week? 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:25.160 So I'm Giants fans have some things to work through too, 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:27.080 even though they're three and one. I mean they're they're 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:30.560 the two shakiest three and one teams in football right now? 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:35.120 All right? They speaking of uh, you know shaky, the 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.160 Giants are three and one? Are they the worst three 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:38.599 and one team in football? Freman? 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:42.279 Yes they are? Next question. 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:46.400 No, looking at this game, and yeah, I think that's 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:51.000 it's generous to call the the Packers run defense somewhat soft. 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:54.360 They are totally soft against the run. Uh, And so 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:58.120 that does you know match up well? I mean for 0:06:58.120 --> 0:06:59.880 for the Giants, although it's hard to say that, you know, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.080 if anything matches up well for them in general, because 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.240 they're so incompetent everywhere. But I have this exactly at 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.800 seven and a half, so we have to wait to see, 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.920 you know, with Daniel Jones, if this number we're forty two, 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:14.600 I would bet the under, but it's forty one and 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:17.560 a half forty one in some places. I have it 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:20.640 exactly at forty one, So I would see value at 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:23.080 forty two. And we did see an early line at 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:25.080 forty two, but it's moved down since then, and so 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:27.480 I don't really see any value in this game. 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.960 Now, speaking of over unders, sleeper has a new game 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.640 for everybody Sleeper is the fastest scoring fantasy platform with 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.320 millions of players already on it, and you probably already 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:37.600 have a league on there, and if you don't, you 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:40.280 probably should. And now you can win even more on 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:43.600 Sleeper by playing their new over under game. It's very simple. 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Now, 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:43.120 let's head on to the next game on our list, 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.880 and it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. We think with Kenny Pickett, 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.600 we assume with Kenny Pickett, not that it might change 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.520 the number on this game anyway, because the Buffalo Bills 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:54.920 are going to be hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, who look 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.959 like a train wreck right now. They are fourteen point favorites. 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.160 So this is a very large gap. Here, forty seven 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:06.480 is the over under. Let's talk to you about this one, Friedman. 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:08.559 Here is this number high enough. 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.480 Thirteen and a half at a couple of books where 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:15.680 I think that creates significant value relative to the consensus 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:18.760 of fourteen that we're seeing at the rest of the market. 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:22.640 So I have this at fourteen point twenty five, So 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.160 I mean it's not like a massive numerical difference, but 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:29.240 going through the key number of fourteen is pretty significant. 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:32.960 And you know we've got questions, As you said, can 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.760 you Pickett in this game? I know that miss Trubisky 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:39.040 isn't good, but he's at least a veteran. He didn't 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:44.040 throw three interceptions yesterday. I have the difference between about 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:44.840 those interceptions. 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.200 I don't want to interrupt you, but like one was 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.280 in the hands of Chase Claypool and he dropped it, 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:50.880 and the other I caught it. The other one was 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.280 deflected by another receiver and it was called. And the 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:55.640 third one was a deep ball that was a chuck 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:57.679 up at the end. So I don't want to kill 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.560 Kenny Pickett. I can't believe I'm the Kenny Picken here 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:02.080 for those three interceptions. That's not fair. 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:03.520 That okay, that's fair. 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:06.520 I was using it more as an illustrative point that 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:10.200 I do think that Trubisky, even though like he's not good, 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.800 he probably still has an edge over a rookie making 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.360 his first start. So like, I think there should be 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.680 a deduction from Trubisky to Picket. The question is like 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:22.560 how much of a deduction is that? And then on 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:25.719 the other hand, we also have Buffalo who I think 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.120 will be getting healthier in this game relative to what 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:30.320 we've seen in the past couple of weeks. So Christian 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:33.840 Benford wanted their cornerback to be coming back. Trudeavius White 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.600 is eligible to come back off the pup in this game, 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.720 so like their secondary could be getting a significant boost, 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:42.760 some of their defensive tackles could return, So I think 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:46.080 they will be healthier than what we've seen. So thirteen 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:49.480 and a half I think offers value fourteen is probably 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:52.000 about right. But the difference between thirteen and a half 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:54.600 and fourteen at this point of the year is pretty significant, 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:55.480 all right. 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:57.400 I'm in the mind that it can't be worse than 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.559 Mitchell Trubisky here, but it's still not to be good 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.760 against Buffalo pat That's how I look at this one. 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:04.959 And Buffalo showed a lot of heart yesterday coming back 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.680 down by seventeen points at one point in that game, 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:09.000 coming back to win on the road. That was a 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.719 huge victory for them, especially after dropping a game to 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.360 Miami the previous week. So what are your thoughts on 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.679 this early line here at fourteen? Is it big enough? 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.800 Yeah? I think it is big enough, and for me, 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:21.760 it might be a little too big. I mean, you 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:25.120 just mentioned it, Joe, Buffalo has been through two pretty 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:27.760 tough games now, and maybe they have kind of a 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:31.600 letdown spot. Certainly, this is the worst edition of the 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:35.320 Steelers that we've seen in a long long time. Like 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:38.199 I can't remember one really worse than. 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:41.960 The less I don't know, I'm yeah, I think we're 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.120 going back to it. But maybe they are better for 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:47.199 having like ripped off the Mitch Trubisky band aid, and 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:50.640 maybe Kenny Pickett is the guy who better lets them 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.959 leverage the talents of Deontay Johnson, George Pickens, and Chase 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:59.640 Claypool because Trubisky really wasn't doing that for them. So yeah, 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.760 I think fourteen is a little tall for me here too. 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:06.280 Even though Friedman is slightly on the Bill side of this, 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.120 I'm kind of slightly on the other side. I think 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.160 maybe there is a little value to getting Pittsburgh at 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:13.560 less than two touchdowns. 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:17.160 Let me add just a little context to this, the 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.760 Bills trying out the Bills the Steelers. Out of all 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:23.400 of the teams that haven't suffered an injury at quarterback, 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.839 the Steelers are the team that I have downgraded the 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:30.160 most in my power ratings since the season started. So 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.880 there is a possibility that I've overreacted to what we've 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:37.000 seen out of the Steelers and then I'm discounting, you know, 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.920 pick it too much. So I will say that like 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:41.120 that is a possibility. 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:43.040 I mean, in case, don't you want to wait then? Like, 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.160 shouldn't we wait to see if his line grows to 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:48.720 fourteen and a half or even fifteen plus? Because it 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.560 feels like if you think that Pittsburgh might be pluckier 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.880 here now with a little change of QB and maybe 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.760 Buffalo overlooks them early, or there's garbage time or all 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.319 those circumstances, don't you want the bigger number then and 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:00.960 maybe be a little more patient on this one. 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.160 Yeah, I mean, if you're on pat side, if you 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:05.880 like the Steelers, and the Steelers have historically been good 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:08.080 as underdogs, so like this is kind of their spot. 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:10.640 If you like the Steelers, I think you wait on 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:12.520 this number. I don't think it's going to get shorter. 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.560 See I disagree, like I don't want to see I 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.880 think this number could get a little shorter. I don't 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:19.640 think it goes to fourteen and a half because I 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.560 think people are gonna see those trends like what Mike 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.280 Tomlin has done as an underdog. But I think we 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:27.760 know we should probably throw those trends out the window 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:30.240 with this Steelers team because this is not like any 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.080 of Tomlin's other Steelers teams. 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:36.400 Yeah, no, TJ. Watt, no Ben Roethlisberger. They're missing a 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:38.720 lot of pieces that historically we've seen in the past. 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.480 Let's take a quick break in the action to tell 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.400 you about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. 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Sports 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.000 betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, and Utah and 0:14:57.040 --> 0:14:59.160 other states where prohibitive promotional offers is not available in 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.000 Nevada and New York. And now back to the action 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.080 next one on this list. The Chargers got the two 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.520 and two the Cleveland Browns fell to two and two. 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.040 They are going to be in Cleveland this week. The 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:10.920 Chargers are three point road favorite to this one. Forty 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:12.720 eight and a half is the number freedmen will start 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:16.720 with you in this one. Look, Cleveland had some opportunities 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:18.040 that are late in the game. They did not take 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.840 advantage of them. Now they go home and lick their 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:22.720 wounds a little bit. But the Chargers still a team 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.320 that is dealing with a myriad of injuries. Keenan Allen 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.400 was unable to get on the field last week. They 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.920 were missing Bosa, J C. Jackson. Still a lot of 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:33.200 issues there. So I'll ask you, just out of curiosity, 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:35.040 is the wrong team favor in this game? 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.200 I don't believe so, but I do like the over 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:42.720 over forty eight and a half and I bet this 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:46.240 last night. Both of these teams can score points and 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:49.920 both of them have wounded defenses. You know, the Browns 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:52.400 have been much better on offense, and I anticipated with 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.400 you Gobe Brissette being pretty efficient and they're going to 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.600 be able to run all over this Chargers rush defense, 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.560 I mean, probably the worst in the league. If it's 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.600 not Pat's Packers run defense. I mean there, they are bad. 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.400 And we know that the Chargers, on the other hand, 0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:11.680 can score points, and they're going against the defense that 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:16.000 is pretty wounded, especially on the front, and so I 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:17.320 don't think they're going to be able to get the 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.440 same pass rush that we would normally expect against the Chargers, 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.160 and so it's not as big of a deal if 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:24.880 they're missing their you know, all pro left tackle. So 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:26.840 I think we're gonna see points in this game. 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.880 Pat, are you concerned at all? You know, when you 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.800 have Kaream Hunt and Nick Chubb to run the football 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:35.920 and the Chargers and ability at times to stop the run, 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.200 that once again, maybe this game might be a lot 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:39.960 higher than people realize. 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.960 It could be. Joe, Like, my first instinct is that 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:47.520 the Chargers are a much more complete team. But you know, 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:51.120 they might have the Achilles that the Browns can really 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.520 exploit here with that run defense. And it's the reason 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.040 my instinct says to like the under in this. I 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.240 went on a long rant on our Live Betting Pros 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:03.440 Game Day live stream yesterday morning about scoffing at such 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:06.719 a high total for a Jacoby Brissett game with the 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:09.520 Browns and the Falcons yesterday, and you know, hit the 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:12.400 under and it did come through. But man, I feel 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:16.040 a little differently about that this week, with the Browns 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:18.520 going up against a team that is so ill equipped 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:20.120 to handle Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.080 Yeah, that's my concern for this one as well. That'll 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:24.920 be a fascinating outcome. I think the wrong team's just 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:28.600 straight up, you know, not favored. I think I think 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:31.000 the Chargers should be the underdog in this game. I 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.600 really do. But we shall find out very soon. The 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:35.959 Houston Texans, still winless on the year three and one, 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.040 will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville got tested in 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:42.080 the rains in Philadelphia. It wasn't very sunny there at all. 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.120 Not for the Jaguars. At least. They are seven point favorites, 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:47.879 though at home against Houston, forty four and a half 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.840 is the number. Now, Pat, I love the Jaguars this year. 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.800 I'm very I'm enjoying this run that they're on, this 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:58.760 rejuvenated squad here after some miserable seasons, especially last season 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.440 being just the bottom of the barrel. But in this 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:03.840 case here, are you ready to make them seven point 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:06.520 favorites even against a team like Houston? Yeah? 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:08.960 Is it a left down spot for them after you know, 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.199 the big stage of going to Philadelphia and playing a 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:13.439 game that a lot of people were interested in. And 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:17.719 I'm still sort of interested in the Jags at seven points. 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.119 If it gets to seven and a half, I'm totally off. 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:25.840 But like I do think the Texans are pretty overmatched here. 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:29.320 Like we've seen the Jaguars are pretty capable on both 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:33.919 sides of the ball, and whatever magic we saw from 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:37.040 from Davis Mills and the Texans offense, and you know, 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:40.159 I would hesitate to call it actual magic late last season, 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.160 but that passing game is really not looking as good 0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:47.159 as it did last December. So you know, I'm fairly 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:49.439 comfortable with the Jaguars here. Is kind of a bigger 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:51.639 home favorite but I just don't want to see that 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:53.200 number get to seven and a half, so I might 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:54.719