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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p Joe,

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Speaker 1: Pi's apia And if you can believe it already, it's

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Speaker 1: week five in the NFL. So we're going to look ahead.

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Speaker 1: Leave week four in the dust, especially with some of

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Speaker 1: those injuries. Were still waiting on some word for those.

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Speaker 1: We still got one more Monday night football game to go,

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Speaker 1: but that will not stop us from looking ahead. We're

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Speaker 1: always trying to pursue onward. We're like great explorers. It's

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Speaker 1: like Lewis and Clark. But I couldn't get those two guys,

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Speaker 1: So instead I got paf fitz Morris, and I got

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Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman here to help me break it all down.

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Speaker 1: And we're going to do just that this morning. Pat.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you, like everybody else, had you know, an

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Speaker 1: enormous over in that Seattle Detroit game yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Right, oh man? What a tract? Yeah? Like I want

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Speaker 2: to go back and watch that one again. I mean it,

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Speaker 2: it was on along with several other games, but I

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Speaker 2: just like how we got to that point where there

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Speaker 2: were almost one hundred points scored in that game. That

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Speaker 2: was just wild. And by the way, start all your

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Speaker 2: fantasy players against the Seahawks and Lions.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, that is very good advice. In the crossover,

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Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, before you completely leave Week four in the

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Speaker 1: dust two. We got Kenny Pickett, we got Bailey Zappi.

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Speaker 1: What a time to be alive, right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean one of those guys might end up

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Speaker 3: being Rookie of the Year, which is real indictment on

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Speaker 3: the rookies this year.

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Speaker 1: But he's not bitter at all. All right, let's continue on,

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Speaker 1: and we'll start with the Thursday night football game, which

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Speaker 1: already has two running backs who probably are not going

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Speaker 1: to be playing in this one. We think we're still

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Speaker 1: waiting for word as we get it, probably definitely not

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Speaker 1: so much Vonte Williams in this game, Jonathan Taylor. We're

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Speaker 1: still waiting on word. But this number right now is

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Speaker 1: forty three and a half is the total you're looking

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Speaker 1: at Indianapolis traveling to Denver and Denver being three point

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Speaker 1: road favorites in this game. If you like the Indianapolis

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Speaker 1: upset right now, it's plus one forty over bettingpros dot Com. Freedman,

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Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of uncertainty right now in

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Speaker 1: this game. Does that lend itself to early opportunity or

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Speaker 1: is this more of a cautionary tale to stay away?

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Speaker 4: Maybe?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I bet the under. I've already bet under

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Speaker 3: forty three and a half. I don't think either team

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Speaker 3: is really all that offensively inclined, and they're missing some

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Speaker 3: of their better weapons in terms of the spread. I

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Speaker 3: do have this right around where the market is at three,

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Speaker 3: so I don't see any value there.

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Speaker 4: But I do like the under.

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Speaker 1: Offensively inclined. I like that. Pat fitz Morris, do you

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Speaker 1: think any of these teams are offensively inclined to go

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Speaker 1: over this total? Or are they more offensively challenged at

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Speaker 1: this point?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Offensively challenged and this does feel like an undergame, there's

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Speaker 2: no question. I mean, we have to call this the

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Speaker 2: AFC Disappointment Ball. I would think so far, thank too.

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Speaker 4: Two teams.

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Speaker 2: They're fan bases we're certainly expecting to see in the

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Speaker 2: playoffs this year and have been you know, letdowns to

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Speaker 2: say the least. So yeah, looking at this one, I'm

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Speaker 2: I don't know how you guys feel, but I feel

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Speaker 2: like maybe Denver is a little bit better equipped to

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Speaker 2: pick up the slack with a running back hurt, Like

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Speaker 2: they're deeper at the position, and maybe they have more

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Speaker 2: elsewhere too. I mean the Colts, like I worry about

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Speaker 2: Matt Ryan, Like, even though the Colts offensive line is

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Speaker 2: is decent, when he doesn't have that running game to

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Speaker 2: take the heat off him. I mean, he just he

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Speaker 2: looks old this year. Let's face and he looks old.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I know Russ has had some struggles too,

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Speaker 2: but I just feel like there are more tricks in

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Speaker 2: the magic bag for the Broncos than for the Colts.

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Speaker 1: And who knows, maybe the injury running back to Javonte

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Speaker 1: Williams will force them to really open up this offense

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Speaker 1: for once and see what it can do. Maybe I

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Speaker 1: don't know, it'd be nice, but you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to live in disappointment. Let's go to the next

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Speaker 1: one here. Speaking of disappointment, the Green Bay Packers narrowly

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Speaker 1: have just just by the skin their chinny chin chin.

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Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris somehow dodged my Patriots, and of course that

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Speaker 1: was all house money in that game. For me, I

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Speaker 1: was enjoying the hell out of that. This one is

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Speaker 1: actually going to be away nine thirty in the morning start.

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Speaker 1: This was going to be in London, so Green Bay

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Speaker 1: gets away, far far away from the States. They are

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Speaker 1: eight point favorites in this one over the New York

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Speaker 1: Football Giants. Forty one and a half is the number

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Speaker 1: if you like the upset plus two eighty you're getting

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Speaker 1: on the Giants. Pat I know, yesterday maybe you could

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Speaker 1: say that the Green Bay Packers weren't taking the Patriots

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Speaker 1: as seriously as they should have. Perhaps maybe, but some

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Speaker 1: of the problems continue to rear their ugly head with

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Speaker 1: this Packers offense.

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Speaker 2: It feels like, yeah, they have issues. Their passing game

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Speaker 2: is not what it once was, and that seems to

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Speaker 2: be luring maybe the occasional safety to the box against

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Speaker 2: them to stop the run, which you never see against

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers normally. So yeah, and do we see another

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Speaker 2: back up this week with Daniel Jones apparently with an

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Speaker 2: ankle injury, so we go maybe from the third stringer

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Speaker 2: on the Patriots to the second stringer and the Giants.

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Speaker 2: And uh, I saw who that was on Twitter just

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Speaker 2: a second ago, and it's already slipped my mind.

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Speaker 3: Uh Taylor, Yeah, Taylor appearance briefly yesterday in the game,

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Speaker 3: but it was brief.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, like, I don't know, Man, it's more than

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Speaker 2: a touchdown seems too tall for this game. Even though

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Speaker 2: the Giants offense yesterday, man was pretty sickly it was

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Speaker 2: it was handed off to Saquon Barkley, or do some

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Speaker 2: sort of bootleg where Daniel Jones pulls out and runs

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Speaker 2: for his life with two guys chasing him and trying

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Speaker 2: to find someone open, And of course there's no one

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Speaker 2: open because they've got like you know, David Sills and

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Speaker 2: Richie James are their top two wide receivers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Like, on one hand, I don't know how the Giants

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Speaker 2: score in this game other than just repeatedly feeding it

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Speaker 2: to Barkley, giving him thirty more carries and letting him

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Speaker 2: work on a somewhat soft Packers run defense because they

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Speaker 2: can't throw. They just can't throw. But at the same time, like,

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Speaker 2: I don't like this Green Bay offense to cover any

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Speaker 2: sort of big number, especially when they're not in Lambeaus.

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Speaker 1: You feel better now, Pat? Is that good?

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Speaker 2: I do I do.

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Speaker 1: Next week?

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Speaker 2: So I'm Giants fans have some things to work through too,

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Speaker 2: even though they're three and one. I mean they're they're

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Speaker 2: the two shakiest three and one teams in football right now?

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Speaker 1: All right? They speaking of uh, you know shaky, the

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Speaker 1: Giants are three and one? Are they the worst three

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Speaker 1: and one team in football? Freman?

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Speaker 4: Yes they are? Next question.

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Speaker 3: No, looking at this game, and yeah, I think that's

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Speaker 3: it's generous to call the the Packers run defense somewhat soft.

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Speaker 3: They are totally soft against the run. Uh, And so

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Speaker 3: that does you know match up well? I mean for

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Speaker 3: for the Giants, although it's hard to say that, you know,

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Speaker 3: if anything matches up well for them in general, because

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Speaker 3: they're so incompetent everywhere. But I have this exactly at

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Speaker 3: seven and a half, so we have to wait to see,

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Speaker 3: you know, with Daniel Jones, if this number we're forty two,

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Speaker 3: I would bet the under, but it's forty one and

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Speaker 3: a half forty one in some places. I have it

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Speaker 3: exactly at forty one, So I would see value at

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Speaker 3: forty two. And we did see an early line at

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Speaker 3: forty two, but it's moved down since then, and so

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Speaker 3: I don't really see any value in this game.

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Speaker 1: Now, speaking of over unders, sleeper has a new game

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Speaker 1: you choose a sport, two or more players that you like,

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Speaker 1: and pick the over under for example, rushing yards in

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Speaker 1: a football game, number points in a basketball game. Then

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Speaker 1: you choose the amount of money you want to enter

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Speaker 1: into that contest, and if you pick correctly, you can

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Speaker 1: win anywhere from two to twenty times your money. And look,

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Speaker 1: together and play with them and hang out. And I

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Speaker 1: space and you're already on Sleeper, it's the perfect marriage

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Speaker 1: match on your first deposit. Again, that's one word betting

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Speaker 1: Pros on the sleeper app. Go play that over under game. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's head on to the next game on our list,

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Speaker 1: and it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. We think with Kenny Pickett,

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Speaker 1: we assume with Kenny Pickett, not that it might change

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Speaker 1: the number on this game anyway, because the Buffalo Bills

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Speaker 1: are going to be hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, who look

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Speaker 1: like a train wreck right now. They are fourteen point favorites.

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Speaker 1: So this is a very large gap. Here, forty seven

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Speaker 1: is the over under. Let's talk to you about this one, Friedman.

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Speaker 1: Here is this number high enough.

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Speaker 3: Thirteen and a half at a couple of books where

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Speaker 3: I think that creates significant value relative to the consensus

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Speaker 3: of fourteen that we're seeing at the rest of the market.

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Speaker 3: So I have this at fourteen point twenty five, So

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Speaker 3: I mean it's not like a massive numerical difference, but

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Speaker 3: going through the key number of fourteen is pretty significant.

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Speaker 3: And you know we've got questions, As you said, can

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Speaker 3: you Pickett in this game? I know that miss Trubisky

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Speaker 3: isn't good, but he's at least a veteran. He didn't

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Speaker 3: throw three interceptions yesterday. I have the difference between about

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Speaker 3: those interceptions.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to interrupt you, but like one was

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Speaker 1: in the hands of Chase Claypool and he dropped it,

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Speaker 1: and the other I caught it. The other one was

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Speaker 1: deflected by another receiver and it was called. And the

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Speaker 1: third one was a deep ball that was a chuck

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Speaker 1: up at the end. So I don't want to kill

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Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett. I can't believe I'm the Kenny Picken here

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Speaker 1: for those three interceptions. That's not fair.

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Speaker 4: That okay, that's fair.

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Speaker 3: I was using it more as an illustrative point that

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Speaker 3: I do think that Trubisky, even though like he's not good,

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Speaker 3: he probably still has an edge over a rookie making

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Speaker 3: his first start. So like, I think there should be

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Speaker 3: a deduction from Trubisky to Picket. The question is like

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Speaker 3: how much of a deduction is that? And then on

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Speaker 3: the other hand, we also have Buffalo who I think

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Speaker 3: will be getting healthier in this game relative to what

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Speaker 3: we've seen in the past couple of weeks. So Christian

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Speaker 3: Benford wanted their cornerback to be coming back. Trudeavius White

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Speaker 3: is eligible to come back off the pup in this game,

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Speaker 3: so like their secondary could be getting a significant boost,

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Speaker 3: some of their defensive tackles could return, So I think

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Speaker 3: they will be healthier than what we've seen. So thirteen

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Speaker 3: and a half I think offers value fourteen is probably

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Speaker 3: about right. But the difference between thirteen and a half

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Speaker 3: and fourteen at this point of the year is pretty significant,

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Speaker 3: all right.

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Speaker 1: I'm in the mind that it can't be worse than

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Speaker 1: Mitchell Trubisky here, but it's still not to be good

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Speaker 1: against Buffalo pat That's how I look at this one.

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Speaker 1: And Buffalo showed a lot of heart yesterday coming back

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Speaker 1: down by seventeen points at one point in that game,

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Speaker 1: coming back to win on the road. That was a

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Speaker 1: huge victory for them, especially after dropping a game to

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Speaker 1: Miami the previous week. So what are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: this early line here at fourteen? Is it big enough?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it is big enough, and for me,

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Speaker 2: it might be a little too big. I mean, you

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Speaker 2: just mentioned it, Joe, Buffalo has been through two pretty

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Speaker 2: tough games now, and maybe they have kind of a

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Speaker 2: letdown spot. Certainly, this is the worst edition of the

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Speaker 2: Steelers that we've seen in a long long time. Like

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Speaker 2: I can't remember one really worse than.

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Speaker 5: The less I don't know, I'm yeah, I think we're

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Speaker 5: going back to it. But maybe they are better for

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Speaker 5: having like ripped off the Mitch Trubisky band aid, and

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Speaker 5: maybe Kenny Pickett is the guy who better lets them

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Speaker 5: leverage the talents of Deontay Johnson, George Pickens, and Chase

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Speaker 5: Claypool because Trubisky really wasn't doing that for them. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I think fourteen is a little tall for me here too.

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Speaker 5: Even though Friedman is slightly on the Bill side of this,

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Speaker 5: I'm kind of slightly on the other side. I think

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Speaker 5: maybe there is a little value to getting Pittsburgh at

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Speaker 5: less than two touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Let me add just a little context to this, the

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Speaker 3: Bills trying out the Bills the Steelers. Out of all

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Speaker 3: of the teams that haven't suffered an injury at quarterback,

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Speaker 3: the Steelers are the team that I have downgraded the

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Speaker 3: most in my power ratings since the season started. So

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Speaker 3: there is a possibility that I've overreacted to what we've

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Speaker 3: seen out of the Steelers and then I'm discounting, you know,

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Speaker 3: pick it too much. So I will say that like

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Speaker 3: that is a possibility.

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Speaker 1: I mean, in case, don't you want to wait then? Like,

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Speaker 1: shouldn't we wait to see if his line grows to

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Speaker 1: fourteen and a half or even fifteen plus? Because it

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Speaker 1: feels like if you think that Pittsburgh might be pluckier

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Speaker 1: here now with a little change of QB and maybe

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Speaker 1: Buffalo overlooks them early, or there's garbage time or all

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Speaker 1: those circumstances, don't you want the bigger number then and

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Speaker 1: maybe be a little more patient on this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if you're on pat side, if you

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Speaker 3: like the Steelers, and the Steelers have historically been good

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Speaker 3: as underdogs, so like this is kind of their spot.

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Speaker 3: If you like the Steelers, I think you wait on

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Speaker 3: this number. I don't think it's going to get shorter.

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Speaker 2: See I disagree, like I don't want to see I

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Speaker 2: think this number could get a little shorter. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it goes to fourteen and a half because I

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Speaker 2: think people are gonna see those trends like what Mike

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Speaker 2: Tomlin has done as an underdog. But I think we

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Speaker 2: know we should probably throw those trends out the window

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Speaker 2: with this Steelers team because this is not like any

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Speaker 2: of Tomlin's other Steelers teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, TJ. Watt, no Ben Roethlisberger. They're missing a

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Speaker 1: lot of pieces that historically we've seen in the past.

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Speaker 1: Nevada and New York. And now back to the action

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Speaker 1: next one on this list. The Chargers got the two

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Speaker 1: and two the Cleveland Browns fell to two and two.

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Speaker 1: They are going to be in Cleveland this week. The

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Speaker 1: Chargers are three point road favorite to this one. Forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half is the number freedmen will start

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Speaker 1: with you in this one. Look, Cleveland had some opportunities

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Speaker 1: that are late in the game. They did not take

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Speaker 1: advantage of them. Now they go home and lick their

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Speaker 1: wounds a little bit. But the Chargers still a team

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Speaker 1: that is dealing with a myriad of injuries. Keenan Allen

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Speaker 1: was unable to get on the field last week. They

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Speaker 1: were missing Bosa, J C. Jackson. Still a lot of

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Speaker 1: issues there. So I'll ask you, just out of curiosity,

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Speaker 1: is the wrong team favor in this game?

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Speaker 3: I don't believe so, but I do like the over

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Speaker 3: over forty eight and a half and I bet this

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Speaker 3: last night. Both of these teams can score points and

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00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,920
Speaker 3: both of them have wounded defenses. You know, the Browns

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Speaker 3: have been much better on offense, and I anticipated with

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Speaker 3: you Gobe Brissette being pretty efficient and they're going to

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Speaker 3: be able to run all over this Chargers rush defense,

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Speaker 3: I mean, probably the worst in the league. If it's

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Speaker 3: not Pat's Packers run defense. I mean there, they are bad.

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Speaker 3: And we know that the Chargers, on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: can score points, and they're going against the defense that

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Speaker 3: is pretty wounded, especially on the front, and so I

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00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,320
Speaker 3: don't think they're going to be able to get the

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Speaker 3: same pass rush that we would normally expect against the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: and so it's not as big of a deal if

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Speaker 3: they're missing their you know, all pro left tackle. So

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Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see points in this game.

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Speaker 1: Pat, are you concerned at all? You know, when you

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Speaker 1: have Kaream Hunt and Nick Chubb to run the football

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Speaker 1: and the Chargers and ability at times to stop the run,

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Speaker 1: that once again, maybe this game might be a lot

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Speaker 1: higher than people realize.

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Speaker 2: It could be. Joe, Like, my first instinct is that

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00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 2: the Chargers are a much more complete team. But you know,

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Speaker 2: they might have the Achilles that the Browns can really

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00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 2: exploit here with that run defense. And it's the reason

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00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 2: my instinct says to like the under in this. I

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Speaker 2: went on a long rant on our Live Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: Game Day live stream yesterday morning about scoffing at such

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Speaker 2: a high total for a Jacoby Brissett game with the

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Speaker 2: Browns and the Falcons yesterday, and you know, hit the

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Speaker 2: under and it did come through. But man, I feel

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Speaker 2: a little differently about that this week, with the Browns

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Speaker 2: going up against a team that is so ill equipped

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Speaker 2: to handle Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's my concern for this one as well. That'll

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Speaker 1: be a fascinating outcome. I think the wrong team's just

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Speaker 1: straight up, you know, not favored. I think I think

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00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 1: the Chargers should be the underdog in this game. I

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Speaker 1: really do. But we shall find out very soon. The

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans, still winless on the year three and one,

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00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville got tested in

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Speaker 1: the rains in Philadelphia. It wasn't very sunny there at all.

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Speaker 1: Not for the Jaguars. At least. They are seven point favorites,

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00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 1: though at home against Houston, forty four and a half

380
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Speaker 1: is the number. Now, Pat, I love the Jaguars this year.

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Speaker 1: I'm very I'm enjoying this run that they're on, this

382
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: rejuvenated squad here after some miserable seasons, especially last season

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00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 1: being just the bottom of the barrel. But in this

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Speaker 1: case here, are you ready to make them seven point

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Speaker 1: favorites even against a team like Houston? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Is it a left down spot for them after you know,

387
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Speaker 2: the big stage of going to Philadelphia and playing a

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Speaker 2: game that a lot of people were interested in. And

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Speaker 2: I'm still sort of interested in the Jags at seven points.

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00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 2: If it gets to seven and a half, I'm totally off.

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Speaker 2: But like I do think the Texans are pretty overmatched here.

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Speaker 2: Like we've seen the Jaguars are pretty capable on both

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00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 2: sides of the ball, and whatever magic we saw from

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00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 2: from Davis Mills and the Texans offense, and you know,

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Speaker 2: I would hesitate to call it actual magic late last season,

396
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 2: but that passing game is really not looking as good

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00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 2: as it did last December. So you know, I'm fairly

398
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 2: comfortable with the Jaguars here. Is kind of a bigger

399
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 2: home favorite but I just don't want to see that

400
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 2: number get to seven and a half, so I might

401
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:54,719
Speaker 2: grab it at seven today.

402
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 1: Matt, do you agree that this is the time to

403
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Speaker 1: grab this Jaguars number.

404
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 4: I don't. I don't know, to be honest.

405
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I have this at six point twenty five,

406
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 3: so I lean slightly towards the Texans, but I assure

407
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 3: you I am not betting on the Texans in this spot.

408
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 4: At seven.

409
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Speaker 3: I think it's right around where it should be. I

410
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,120
Speaker 3: in this game actually prefer the over, which I feel

411
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Speaker 3: disgusting saying the overs, because you know, overs have not

412
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Speaker 3: been hitting well this year, although we're about even on

413
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 3: overs the past two weeks, so yesterday helped.

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00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 4: I think, Yeah, the.

415
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 3: Market, the market has evened out on the overs and

416
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 3: the unders. And you know, forty three and a half

417
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 3: that is a low number, and this Jags team, they

418
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Speaker 3: can score a lot of points. I have this number

419
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 3: at forty five, so I bet forty three and a

420
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Speaker 3: half over last night. And man, the Jags they could

421
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 3: get this all on their own with a couple of

422
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Speaker 3: you know, pill goals from the Texans to help out.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's move to the next one. Here, The Minnesota

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Speaker 1: Vikings at home, also seven point favorites here over the

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Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. The numbers forty three flat, and obviously we

426
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Speaker 1: know that the Bears have not been a good football

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Speaker 1: team so far this year. Is this an early opportunity

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Speaker 1: to get on the Vikings bandwagon in Week five? Even?

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Speaker 3: Man, it's tough because we've got the travel from London

430
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Speaker 3: and so a lot of teams haven't historically opted to

431
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Speaker 3: play the week after London. And I mean the Vikings

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Speaker 3: had a weird travel schedule and that they didn't get

433
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: to London until a couple of days before the game,

434
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 3: whereas the Saints they got there like early in the

435
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 3: week and they acclimated. So I'm not really sure how

436
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 3: the travel is going to impact this, and so I'm

437
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 3: kind of taking more of a hands off approach. I

438
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,919
Speaker 3: do have this at seven point seven to five, so

439
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 3: you know, in theory, given that this number is at seven,

440
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 3: there's value there.

441
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,439
Speaker 4: And I might, I don't know, I might be too

442
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 4: high on Chicago.

443
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 3: Just given how horrible they are on offense, but I

444
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 3: still think their defense is pretty decent. So man, I

445
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 3: don't know seven fields out right?

446
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 1: How about you pat the seven field right to you,

447
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 1: or do you think we're giving the Bears too much credit?

448
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 2: No, I think we're giving the Vikings too much credit.

449
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: I think I think, yeah, I mean, that's it.

450
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 4: But I mean maybe.

451
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 2: It's maybe it's my bias in the rivalry showing through here.

452
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 2: But I think the Vikings are paper tiger and they're

453
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 2: still getting overvalued because of that Week one game against

454
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: the Packers. And we kind of saw that in London.

455
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: I mean, the Saints were very much evenly matched with them.

456
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 2: That was pretty much a toss up game. It comes

457
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 2: down to the bounce of a field goal off the crossbar.

458
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 2: So I do think the Bears are Yes, they're certainly

459
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 2: deserving of being a bigger underdog here, but they play

460
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: the kind of football where they can hang in a

461
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 2: game like this, Like they play conservatively. They're basically just

462
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 2: trying not to lose field position or give it away

463
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 2: with turnovers. And like, I don't know, I just I

464
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 2: don't think the Vikings are going to offul London game,

465
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 2: off a big travel week like just crush the Bears here.

466
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 2: I see this being a competitive game, all right.

467
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 1: Bill, Let's move on to the next one. Here, the

468
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions in that same division, lost yet again. So

469
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 1: for all the grit that they talked about in Hard Knocks,

470
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: they're not quite showing enough of it on the field.

471
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are home hosting the Lions. They

472
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites. The number is

473
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: forty seven in this one. If you like the upset,

474
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: you can get Detroit on the money line at plus

475
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 1: one twenty pat I know a lot of injuries in

476
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 1: this game too, Potentially we have to wait to get

477
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 1: sorted out. I'm on Rossaint Brown. Does DeAndre Swift come back?

478
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 1: We've also got questions about DJ Hark, We've got questions

479
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 1: about Mac Jones on the Patriots side. Are there are

480
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: too many questions to get an early beat on this

481
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: game or does that mean it's an opportunity to take

482
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 1: advantage of one of these sides because of these injuries?

483
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe an opportunity. I just wonder if the Patriots

484
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 2: might have too much class here and like a Bill

485
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 2: Belichick team as this small a favorite, basically saying in

486
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 2: a neutral site, this is a pick or less. You know,

487
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 2: home field is no longer worth a full three points.

488
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 2: It's closer to two and do I like Bill Belichick

489
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 2: and a coaching matchup with Dan Campbell, absolutely, And you know,

490
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 2: like if I were playing for Campbell, I'd run through

491
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: a wall for the guy. But I also don't know

492
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 2: about some of the game management decisions. We know Detroit

493
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:25,199
Speaker 2: does not hold leeds very well. I just think this

494
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: is kind of a spot where I want to be

495
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 2: on New England. I mean, we just saw them, like

496
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: give the Packers all they could handle with a third

497
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 2: string quarterback on the road. So you know, I am

498
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 2: betting on the class here of the Patriots.

499
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: All right, how about you, Freeman betting on the class

500
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 1: of the Patriots or the fact that the Patriots might

501
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: be starting Bailey Zappi in this game.

502
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm on the other side of this, and

503
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 3: I haven't bet it yet, but I am seeing a

504
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 3: plus three at Caesar's and I might.

505
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 4: Bet that after I'm done talking. I have this.

506
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 3: I have this at plus one for Detroit, So I

507
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: am seeing value there and you know, like one to

508
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 3: two and a half, there's not that much of a

509
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: difference there, but when you hit three, then their significant

510
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: difference and the Bailey's Appy factor, you know, like I

511
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: don't know if he's worse than Brian Hoyer, but he

512
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 3: probably is. Like if I'm knocking, can he Pickett a point?

513
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: You know versus Trubisky because it's his first NFL start?

514
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: I should probably do something similar for Zappy versus Brian Hoyer.

515
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 3: And you know they are they being the Lions. They

516
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 3: are missing a number of players, but some of those

517
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 3: guys are going to come back this week, like DeAndre Swift,

518
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 3: He's probably out, but a mon ros Saint Brown Chark

519
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 3: was close to playing last week. Both of those guys

520
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 3: might come back. They also might get back left guard

521
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 3: Jonah Jackson. You know their kicker, Austin Sebert, he might

522
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 3: come back.

523
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 4: I don't know.

524
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 3: I I'm on Detroit. You know Dan Campbell as a favorite,

525
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 3: that's not where you want to be. But Dan Campbell

526
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 3: is an underdog. That is when the Lions start to bark,

527
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 3: to mix everything together. So I think I'm gonna be

528
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 3: on the Lions in this spot.

529
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: Lions are barking here on the show. There you go.

530
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 1: You have it, Seattle at New Orleans in this one,

531
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: New Orleans loses on the double doink four and a

532
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: half point favorites in this one, regardless at home against

533
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. Forty three and a half is the number.

534
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: If you like the Seahawks upset, it is plus one

535
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 1: point eighty right now on the money line to take

536
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 1: them outright, Gino Smith, Sean Penny, Seattle Seahawks yesterday getting

537
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 1: the job done. Friedman, any any chance you were repressed

538
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 1: enough with what you saw out of the Seahawks yesterday

539
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: to be concerned for this four and a half on

540
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 1: the New Orleans.

541
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 4: Side, talk to Fitz because I am betting.

542
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: The last week sure fits same question to you, my friend. Look,

543
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Seahawks have you want to

544
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: talk about. Pluckiness is something you mentioned on the show

545
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 1: quite a bit. The Seahawks have kind of shown that

546
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,959
Speaker 1: a little bit. It's kind of them against the world

547
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 1: and this is another perfect setup and Alva Kamara was

548
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: out for that last game and Winston once again. A

549
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: lot of injuries here or four and a half number,

550
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: I think is kind of telling you in a perfect world,

551
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 1: if everybody's healthy, and when the Saints were winning games,

552
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 1: this is probably a six, right or a six and

553
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 1: a half. But it's four and a half right now.

554
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: So do you feel like this is an opportunity or

555
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: do you feel this is a trap?

556
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 2: I feel like this is a stay away for me, Joe.

557
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: I mean, the Seattle offense has been fun. And how

558
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 2: hilarious is it that we have gotten the narrative for

559
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 2: so many years about like Ross being constrained, having these

560
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: manacles on him by Pete Carroll and the design of

561
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: the Seattle offense and now they trade him get you know,

562
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 2: a bevy of draft capital in return, and now they're

563
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: running this wide open, fun offense everyone wanted to see

564
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 2: all along.

565
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: It hasn't been fun all year, but it was funny, right.

566
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so and doing it with Gino smethic quarterback. So yeah,

567
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 2: but yeah, there's it's one thing to go against Detroit's defense,

568
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 2: It's another to go against a professional defense, which is

569
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 2: what New Orleans has. So I don't know if we're

570
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: going to see the same sort of pyrotechnics from the

571
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 2: Seattle offense that we saw yesterday. And yeah, I just

572
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 2: like I think these numbers are about right. Like the

573
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 2: wild card is maybe the travel situation for the Saints.

574
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,919
Speaker 2: Do they have sort of a letdown after losing a

575
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,479
Speaker 2: game that they were highly competitive in and such a

576
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 2: heartbreaking way, you know, coming back to a game they

577
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 2: should win, but do they Maybe? I don't know. Is

578
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 2: this a letdown spot for them? I just I don't

579
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: really feel anything about this game. I think it could

580
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 2: go any which way and I kind of don't want

581
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 2: to touch it.

582
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: Well, Friedman, here's another team traveling back from London. They're

583
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: going to face the Seahawks. Certainly this feels very trappy

584
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 1: for New Orleans. They lost, well, they could have tied

585
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: the game. Let's put that way on the field goal

586
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 1: and things that not go their way. It's a long

587
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 1: flight back to think about all the things that went wrong.

588
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 1: How do you look at this contest you're coming up

589
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: in Week five between the Saints and the Seahawks.

590
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 3: I have this number at four point seventy five, So

591
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,719
Speaker 3: the consensus is five. I don't really see any value

592
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 3: it's and this this New Orleans scene, there are so

593
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 3: many injury questions with it. We don't know if Andy

594
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 3: Dalton starting or if it's Jameis Winston. Michael Thomas was out,

595
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara was out, you know, mark Ingram was in

596
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: and out of the game.

597
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 4: Left guard Andrews Pete.

598
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 3: So like they're just They're dealing with so many injuries,

599
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 3: and Seattle is running so well right now. It's like

600
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 3: it's like the guy who gets divorced, uh, and like

601
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: everything that the ex wife was like complaining about, he's

602
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 3: now like doing with the new wife. It's like, oh,

603
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: we're taking the trip to to London, you know, like everything.

604
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 3: It's like the ex wife is just looking at this

605
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 3: being like, why can't you do that when we were together? Anyway,

606
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 3: That's that's like what's going on with Seattle right now.

607
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: I don't know what to make out of that offense,

608
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 3: Like is this something that is sustainable or is it not?

609
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 4: I have this near the number. I'm just staying away, Okay.

610
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: I think it's a fascinating upset. I just don't think

611
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: New Orleans is as good as people want to get.

612
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: I think they're living in the past when it comes

613
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: to New Orleans a little bit. This team. They just

614
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: don't seem to have any sort of cohesion to this

615
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: unit at all. The Jets might not be the doormat

616
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 1: they used to be. I don't know if there's good

617
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: to a good football team quite yet either. They are

618
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: three point underdogs at home this week against Miami Miami's

619
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: three and one. The Jets are two and two. They

620
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: were very competitive in that game against the Steelers. Granted

621
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: it was the Steelers, but it was in Pittsburgh. Forty

622
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: four and a half is the number if you like

623
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: the Jets for the upsets plus one twenty five on

624
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: the money line. Freedman, I know Zach Wilson's return yesterday.

625
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: I don't think you can call it triumphant, but he

626
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: did have some moments certainly in that game, as did

627
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: the offense in general. And Miami still looking like most

628
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: likely Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback for them. So how much

629
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 1: of an impact does that make on this line for

630
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 1: you when you're looking at this game early Monday morning.

631
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Zach Wilson returned, that's what we can say. And

632
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 3: with Tua, the drop from Tua to Teddy, that is

633
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 3: a real question because before the season started I would

634
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,959
Speaker 3: have had I don't know, some smart people had that

635
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 3: number two, like multiple people had that number two. It

636
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 3: would have felt a little bit closer to me. But

637
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: we have seen Tua play really well this year, and

638
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 3: you know, I think some of that is the system,

639
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: but you know, maybe I should also assume some of

640
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 3: that is just too a with a competent, competent group

641
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 3: around him, with coaches, with the receivers actually progressing and

642
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 3: taking a step forward. So I have that number right

643
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 3: now as one and a half point difference. Maybe I

644
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: should go to two, but either way, I have this

645
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: number right around where it is now. The number is

646
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: three in the market. I have Miami at three point

647
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 3: twenty five. So if it's I don't really see any.

648
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 4: Value on it.

649
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: Fits Do you see any early value at all in

650
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 1: this game?

651
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah?

652
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: I think the Jets are kind of a plucky dog here,

653
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 2: and I think we're still the betting public is maybe

654
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: still it has the image of the Jets as lovable losers,

655
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: and maybe they are starting to shed that a little bit.

656
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: And for all the for everything they've handled, the Wilson

657
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: injury and the preseason having to roll out with Joe

658
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 2: Flack at the beginning of the season, that the rotating

659
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: cast they've had to use it left tackle, this defense

660
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 2: is starting to get legitimate. Sauce Gardner like his gives them.

661
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 2: They did not have someone they could lean on in

662
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 2: their secondary to cover top receivers last year, and I

663
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: think they've got that now with Sauce Gardner, Like, I

664
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 2: think this team is for real and you know Miami

665
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: with the quarterback change. I agree with Friedman, I, you know,

666
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 2: tend to think it's maybe worth less than two points.

667
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 2: You know, we've we've seen Teddy be a competent. He's uh,

668
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: you know, as our friend Scott Piinowski, Yaho would say,

669
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: he is a spare tire. He's the donut. Like he

670
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: can he can get you across town to go to

671
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: a yoga session or go get groceries. But you don't

672
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 2: want to go across state lines with him for you know,

673
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 2: more than a short period. So yeah, like I see

674
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 2: a little value in the Jets here, Like I think

675
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 2: they're a legitimate team. Maybe Zach Wilson is a downgrade

676
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 2: from Joe Flacco, but he's got some weapons, man like

677
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: Dog Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore. And he seems to love

678
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: Corey Davis too.

679
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: He does. So Corey Davis was the big standout to

680
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: me yesterday in those games, those big moments, that's what

681
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: he was looking for and that's we found in that

682
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: game against the Steward.

683
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 2: Yesy, and I can't fail to mention Tyler Conklin who

684
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: you know, is very good and looks like Kyle Drogo

685
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 2: from a Game of Thrones, so also.

686
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: A good look. Yeah, yes, yeah, we all wish we

687
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: could look like that. Atlanta Falcons at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

688
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: Oh man, Tampa got down early and it just wasn't

689
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: enough for them to come back in that game. They

690
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: are eight and a half point favorites though this week

691
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: against the Atlanta Falcons as they travel to Tampa. Forty

692
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: seven and a half is the number for this one.

693
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 1: So Pat, let's talk about this. We've seen a lot

694
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: bigger numbers this week than we've seen I think all year,

695
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: probably a bit of the schedule, but probably also just

696
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 1: finally getting a little bit more of an identity of

697
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: some of these teams. So do we have enough of

698
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: identity of the Falcons right now at this juncture to

699
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: think that Tampa's going to stomp them to an eight

700
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: and a half point deficit here? Yeah?

701
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 4: Maybe not.

702
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Atlanta has been pretty plucky so far, but

703
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: I'm a little less inclined to do anything with the

704
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 2: side here than the total, which I think is a

705
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: tad high. I just don't think this Buccaneers offense is

706
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: as dangerous as it was last year, And it seems

707
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: to me like there are times when it looks like

708
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 2: Brady just wants to get rid of the ball quickly,

709
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: like you know, he is very eager to just check

710
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 2: down and not take a hit. And you know we're

711
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 2: seeing these at all two and three yard Leonard Fournette

712
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 2: completions wide of the field. Sometimes it seems like even

713
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 2: before the Buccaneers receivers have time to get into their patterns.

714
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 2: So this number does seem a little tall because I've

715
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: never really believed in the Atlanta offense, and I don't

716
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: know if the Bucks can push this one over themselves.

717
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: Okay, well, the Bucks defense certainly had a longer night

718
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: at the offense last night. Excuse me, longer night the

719
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: office last night, Friedman. When you are looking at this

720
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: number here and what you've seen other Bucks this year,

721
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 1: it seems like Tom Brady either says it's Mike Evans

722
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: or it's nobody. So is that going to be enough

723
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 1: in this one to really get them over that eight

724
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: and a half number? In your opinion?

725
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this very close to ten, just to

726
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 3: shade under ten. So I am on the Buccaneers in

727
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 3: this spot, but I will say maybe I haven't been

728
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,439
Speaker 3: quick enough to adjust them down.

729
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 4: But I still think they have one of the best

730
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 4: defenses in the.

731
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 3: League, regardless of what we saw last night against a

732
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 3: very good Chiefs offense, and with the weapons that they

733
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 3: have returning, I think the offense will progressively improve. So

734
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 3: I like the Falcons. I like their offense, but I

735
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 3: think their defense still has a lot of vulnerabilities. So

736
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 3: I am on the Buccaneers in this spot, and you know,

737
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 3: like Tom Brady coming off of a loss, I just

738
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna smash in this spot.

739
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, fresh off and important win, are two and

740
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 1: a half my favorites on the road against Washington, who

741
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: got pummeled by Dallas as many of us thought that

742
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,959
Speaker 1: they would in that defense. So no surprise there. Forty

743
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,760
Speaker 1: two and a half is the number for this one.

744
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: But I have to ask this readman, is this the

745
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 1: classic Tennessee Titans let down where they look good, they

746
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: big that big game, they've got it against the Colts,

747
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 1: and then they go and they drop a turd basically

748
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: over in Washington. Because it seems like this is just

749
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: shaping up to be one of those kind of moments.

750
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, this it feels like for both teams. This is

751
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 3: the kind of spot in which Carson Wentz would somehow

752
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 3: like be a competent quarterback and the Titans would look

753
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 3: like an offense that just has no idea what they're doing.

754
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 4: So I have this number very close to it. Pick them.

755
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 4: I have it ate point twenty five.

756
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 3: And I feel disgusting being on the Commanders in this spot,

757
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 3: which might be the sign that this is the right

758
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 3: side here. So I am on the Commanders. I bet

759
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 3: it last night at plus three. I think you can

760
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 3: still find that number in a couple of books. But

761
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 3: plus two five is in the market, not nearly attractive,

762
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: but I still see value at that number.

763
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 1: Plus one twenty five on the money line. Come on, fits,

764
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 1: let's go. This has got to be classics, classic Tennessee

765
00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 1: Titans right at this time, where you know, they win

766
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: the game you're worried about, and then they go on

767
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 1: the road and they lose the game that they probably

768
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: should romp on somebody. But I mean, I know the

769
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: Commanders looked terrible last week, but you got to shake

770
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 1: that off because it's week to week here in the NFL.

771
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: Your thoughts on the Commander's opportunity here to maybe even

772
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: upset the Titans outright.

773
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 2: Like Friedman doing a look aheadlines on Sunday morning before

774
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 2: the Week four action took place, or at least the

775
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: Week four Sunday action. I had this game as a pick.

776
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: I'm also, and then we saw Washington go out and

777
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 2: look absolutely terrible, So I guess that is the reason

778
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 2: this line is opening where it is. Yeah, Washington's offense

779
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: was very functional in the first two weeks of the season,

780
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: and it is completely driven off the road in the

781
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 2: last two weeks of the season.

782
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 1: I don't know by good pass rushes, to be honest. Yeah,

783
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: those teams had good pass rushes, So I don't think

784
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 1: the Titans pass rush is the same thing as like,

785
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 1: you know, Micah Parsons and Marcus Lawrence.

786
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 2: No exactly, There's there's no Harold Landry, so like this

787
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 2: is definitely a better spot for Washington to rebound. So, yes,

788
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 2: as gross as it feels too on the side of

789
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 2: the Commanders, that's where I am too.

790
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 1: All Right, we haven't seen anything yet tonight. We have

791
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 1: to wait for the forty nine Ers and Rams to

792
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: see what those two teams do. But in the meantime,

793
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers are regardless four and a half

794
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Oh,

795
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers have one win. The number for this

796
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: game is thirty nine and a half. Is that number

797
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 1: low enough fits?

798
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it is. Boy, it is just and

799
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,919
Speaker 2: I've got this, uh, I've got you know, Carolina's four

800
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 2: point dogs instead of four and a half. But I

801
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 2: refuse to recognize value with a Baker Mayfield quarterbacks team.

802
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, like I just I can't. I can't back

803
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 2: the Panthers right now. That offense is just too you know,

804
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 2: an offense with Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore just to

805
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 2: be non functional. At this point, I wonder how soon

806
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,959
Speaker 2: we're gonna see Sam Darnold back in you know, once

807
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 2: his uh.

808
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: Well just got chills when just straight up my spine,

809
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,959
Speaker 1: I think, say, maybe it's time we don't see Matt rule.

810
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: That's what I thought. That was probably a more likely scenario.

811
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: Getting close to that time too. But think of that

812
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 2: where the fans might be relieved to see Sam Darnold's

813
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 2: or maybe you know, skip directly to Sam Howell some

814
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: sort of Sam, but not Baker Mayfield anymore, because I

815
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 2: just don't want to watch any more of him running

816
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 2: this offense.

817
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: Friedman, have you seen enough of the Panthers here? Do

818
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 1: you think that they stand a chance of this number?

819
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 1: Four and a half?

820
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:28,280
Speaker 3: Where I have this exactly for I think the total

821
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 3: is about right. Let's move on to the next game.

822
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: All right, very good? So running away. These gentlemen are

823
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 1: no courage at all in this game. I don't blame them.

824
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: I have no faith either. Philadelphia Eagle is the only

825
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: undefeated team left in the NFL. They are five and

826
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: a half point favorites traveling to Arizona team with no defense.

827
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: Forty nine and is half is the number. Now, the

828
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 1: Cardinals did get a w yesterday. There's some things that

829
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 1: certainly went their way. The defense did create some turnovers,

830
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 1: make some moments, so I want to give them some

831
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 1: credit here. But this is a different class of opponent.

832
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: I think this week where you're getting the Philadelphia Eagles

833
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: coming to town. So Friedman, five and a half. The

834
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: weather will not be an issue in this game. This

835
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 1: is in Arizona. So do you think that this number

836
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: might be too small?

837
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 3: I bet this at six at DraftKings I did it

838
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: last night.

839
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 4: That number is still available. I feel disgusting doing it.

840
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: You know, Arizona I have very little faith in them organizationally,

841
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 3: I have no faith in head coach Cliff Kingsbury. I

842
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: do have a little bit of faith in Kyler Murray

843
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: and Phoenix.

844
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 4: Not Phoenix, Philadelphia.

845
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: They got a little they got a little beat up

846
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 3: on Sunday. Left tackle Jordan Mulatto left the game, They

847
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 3: lost their right guard, they lost Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox

848
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 3: wasn't playing, like not all of those guys are going

849
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 3: to return. And Philadelphia at four, and oh, I think

850
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 3: the hype is just getting a little too strong here.

851
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: And so I am on the Cardinals and I'm just

852
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 3: holding my breath because I don't feel good about it.

853
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 3: But I do see value in this. I think this

854
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 3: number should be about three.

855
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 1: All right, fits, How do you feel Freeman brings up

856
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 1: some of those injuries now? At the same time, the

857
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals have not been a very good football team,

858
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 1: let's be honest, so far this year, and despite a

859
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: couple of wins, I think some of things have really

860
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 1: bounced their way for some of those victories. The Eagles

861
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 1: seem like a much better team just in terms of

862
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: a class above them, regardless of the pieces they might

863
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: be missing. But is it enough in this game for you?

864
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 2: Oh, the Eagles are definitely better, but they are traveling

865
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 2: cross country in this game. Friedman mentioned the injury concerns,

866
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 2: and just as last week when Friedman and I thought

867
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 2: it was pretty gross to be betting the Cardinals in Carolina,

868
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 2: we did it and that was the way to go.

869
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: And I kind of feel the same way that there's

870
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 2: value to the Cardinals as a home dog here.

871
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 1: All right. The Dallas Cowboys, at three and one, will

872
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 1: travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams. The Rams

873
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: will be five and a half point favorites, and this one,

874
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 1: forty five and a half is the number. This one

875
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 1: feels about right. I want to give the Cowboys some credit, though,

876
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: because they've certainly been more petitive with Cooper RuSHA I

877
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 1: think any of us thought they might be. Is this

878
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: another one of those spots where they're more competitive than

879
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: we think they might be fits or is this them

880
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 1: just getting out class potentially by the Rams on the road.

881
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 2: No, I think they could be more competitive than we

882
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 2: think and that's seven and a half is big, and

883
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: that's the reason I have no interest in the Rams

884
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: and maybe some interest in the Cowboys at this number,

885
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 2: but I think I'm more interested in the under here.

886
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 2: Like this Dallas defense is for real and it's pretty ferocious,

887
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 2: and we've not seen the Rams offense in on all

888
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 2: cylinders at any real point this season. So plus they're

889
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 2: going to be coming off a short week following the

890
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 2: Monday night game, and you know, Dallas obviously as offensive

891
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 2: limitations of their own with Cooper Rush at quarterback, although

892
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,479
Speaker 2: he has been a very competent game manager in Dak

893
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: Prescott's absence, so to me, like I had the total

894
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 2: at forty four, So I see definite opportunity here with

895
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 2: the under, but I don't think I'm going to play

896
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 2: a side.

897
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: How about you here, Friedman? With that defense and the

898
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: game management of Cooper Rush, is that enough here? Or

899
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: maybe this five and a half number isn't really as

900
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 1: safe as people think it is.

901
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm upset myself for not betting this at six

902
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 3: and a half last night. I think I think there's

903
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 3: a real chance that this is the game Dak Prescott returns.

904
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:22,240
Speaker 4: You know, there are reports.

905
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:26,839
Speaker 3: Adam Schefter yesterday said that Dak Prescott is eyeing Week

906
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,919
Speaker 3: five as a possible return date, and so I think

907
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 3: there is the possibility. And even if that doesn't happen,

908
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush has been more than competent as the fill in,

909
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 3: and the Rams are also pretty injured, both on the

910
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 3: offensive line and in the secondary. So, you know, at

911
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 3: five and a half, I think this number is pretty

912
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 3: close to where it should be. Let me see where

913
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 3: I have it right now. I have it at five

914
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 3: point twenty five, which is kind of factoring in like

915
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 3: the possibility of Dak returning at six and a half.

916
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 4: I think there would value there.

917
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: Okay, moving on to the next contest, we have the

918
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,840
Speaker 1: primetime game Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens three and a

919
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: half point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals. This one could

920
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 1: be very fun. Forty seven and a half is the

921
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: number here in this one, Freeman, Is that over under

922
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 1: total a little on the lower side, you think for

923
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: these two offenses? Let me see here, Well, these two defenses,

924
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:21,919
Speaker 1: I couldn't even phrase it that way.

925
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 4: I have this close to fifty.

926
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that sounds about right to me.

927
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I do see value there, and honestly, I

928
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 3: see value on the Bengals. It feels a little wrong

929
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 3: to say that because I have been really impressed by

930
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 3: the Ravens. But three and a half in a divisional

931
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 3: game with Cincinnati getting extra rest, I think there is value.

932
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 1: There Cincinnati getting extra rest. But well, the Baltimore Ravens

933
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: lose two home games in a row, fits you think.

934
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the trend I worry about because I did

935
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 2: have this as more of like a two point game.

936
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: I feel like on a neutral site, these teams are even.

937
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 2: But that's the thing, Like, I don't like betting against

938
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens when they're playing at home, especially coming off

939
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,479
Speaker 2: a home loss, So I might just settle on playing

940
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: the over, which like Freeman, I don't have it as

941
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,439
Speaker 2: high as he had. I had it at forty eight,

942
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 2: and you said it's forty seven and a half, right,

943
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 2: So you know, a little bit of value on my projection,

944
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: A lot of value in Freedman's projection.

945
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:24,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the over the way these two defenses

946
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 1: have played so far this year. Give me the over

947
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: in this one. Las Vegas Raiders will head to Kansas City.

948
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 1: Kansas City is seven and a half point favorites in

949
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: this one. Fifty two and a half is the number,

950
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 1: so fits you know, it's an indivision game. Sometimes we

951
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: say those are always a little bit more peculiar than

952
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 1: people ever expect. Could this end up becoming another one

953
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: of those games where you know, you see the Kansas

954
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 1: Chiefs look really good one week, and then next week

955
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 1: they're at home and they struggle against the Raiders. Do

956
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 1: you think they smash in this one?

957
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 2: Yeah? I've learned some hard lessons about the perceived invincibility

958
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs in the past betting them at big numbers.

959
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 2: Once again, I'm kind of inclined to lay the points

960
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: with the Chiefs. But maybe it is one of those

961
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 2: things where after just coming out of the gate, roaring

962
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 2: out of the gate against the Buccaneers on Sunday night,

963
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,959
Speaker 2: where they just struggle to move the ball against the Raiders,

964
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: like it's plausible, but it's kind of improbable because the

965
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: Raiders are still a little bit banged up in the secondary.

966
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 2: That's not what you want to be going against the

967
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 2: Chiefs and Arrowhead. So I do see some value in

968
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: the Chiefs here, even as a big home favorite.

969
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 1: All Right, do you like the spread here or maybe

970
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 1: the fifty two and a half number over? What are

971
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: your thoughts here, Friedman on this one.

972
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, this number is seven at DraftKings. That's the only

973
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 3: seven I'm seeing in the market right now. And I

974
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 3: would bet that I bet this on the look ahead

975
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 3: at six and a half. Was, you know, obviously very

976
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:50,439
Speaker 3: happy to get that. I still see value at seven

977
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 3: because I think this number should be about nine. And

978
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 3: the Raiders, Yeah, they got to win yesterday and there

979
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 3: was a lot of luck involved in getting that win.

980
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 3: I mean, now you could say there was some luck

981
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 3: involved in them not winning some of their earlier games,

982
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 3: but you know, they had a fumble six like to

983
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 3: swing this game. Like, I think that the Raiders are

984
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 3: still pretty fraudulent, and I think the Chiefs are, if

985
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 3: not the best team in the league. Is that should be,

986
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 3: you know, the Bills and anyone's power ratings, But I

987
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 3: think the Chiefs are pretty cleanly the number two team

988
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: in the league, and I think they take care business here.

989
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:24,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's take care of business here with the

990
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: boys and find their favorite early look ahead bets for

991
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: Week five in the NFL. For even let's stick with

992
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 1: you give me your three favorite things that you saw

993
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: so far this morning that you want people to jump on.

994
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Washington plus three. I still think there's value there

995
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 3: against Tennessee. We have Fits and I both talked about

996
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 3: Arizona plus six against Philadelphia.

997
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 4: Arizona at home.

998
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 3: It's a disgusting bet, but Arizona is underdogs, you know,

999
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:53,320
Speaker 3: that's when they historically outperformed. And then yeah, Kansas City

1000
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 3: minus seven against the Las Vegas Raiders.

1001
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,479
Speaker 4: I will be on that all day long.

1002
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: All right, Fits you, what are your three favorites looking

1003
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 1: ahead to Week five?

1004
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: J E t SS jets ch Jets No like that

1005
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 2: getting getting the field goal against the Dolphins, and presumably

1006
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater, the backup quarterback. I think this is a

1007
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 2: different Jets team and they're still getting undervalued. Uh. The Cardinals. Uh,

1008
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 2: we're gonna keep riding this train together, Friedman, you and

1009
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 2: I before it goes over the over, off the rails

1010
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:27,279
Speaker 2: and over a cliff. Yeah, yeah, we are going to

1011
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: take the six points. And uh, finally, I also agree

1012
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 2: with that Chiefs pick minus seven, Like that's just not

1013
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 2: enough for them against the Raiders.

1014
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: That's your early look ahead for week five in the NFL.

1015
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: If you need more help, you can always go to

1016
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,240
Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com, where we have all kinds of amazing content.

1017
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 1: We've got the prop bet cheat sheet, We've got incredible

1018
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 1: tools and articles to help you get everything you need

1019
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: and don't forget to subscribe to our Betting Pros channel

1020
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 1: over on YouTube YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros and

1021
00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 1: go play a little over under game have some fun

1022
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: with your friends. Sleeper app. Go to Sleeper dot app

1023
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros that Sleeper dot app slash Betting Pros.

1024
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 1: Use the promo code betting Pros when you sign up,

1025
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 1: and you'll get a one hundred dollars deposit match on

1026
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 1: your first deposit. Doesn't get much better than that, except

1027
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 1: maybe hanging out with these two guys and talking football

1028
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 1: every single Monday morning. I love it. Little Monday morning

1029
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,840
Speaker 1: quarterbacking for the week ahead. That'll do it for us.

1030
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Pet

1031
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: and Matt. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,