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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're sitting.

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Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Swayne.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank small. I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine and you want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 6: We are presented by our friends at bet MGM, the

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Speaker 6: King of sports books. It's time for the final weekend.

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Speaker 1: In the NFL regular season.

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Speaker 6: You guessed it, NFL Week eighteen Best Bets. I'm your host,

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Speaker 6: Brendan glass Sheen, joined by Brandon Anderson and his bunker

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Speaker 6: in North Dakota. I hope that brings good vibes. We'll

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Speaker 6: get to a certain someone later in the program. We

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Speaker 6: have Luke Swayin aka Veas Vegas Refund and the Doctor's

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Speaker 6: checking in. After the holidays, Doctor Nick Giffen is joining us.

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Speaker 6: He's part of the predictive analytics team at the Action Network.

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Speaker 6: Hope you all had a great New Year's Eve, great holiday.

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Speaker 6: Happy New Year, Larry David, though at this point says

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Speaker 6: it's too late to now say Happy New Year.

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Speaker 1: So we're moving on. You can find the.

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Speaker 6: Video version of this podcast if you haven't done so already,

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Speaker 6: on the Action Network YouTube channel. Hit subscribe, not just

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Speaker 6: for this pod, but we'll have content all throughout the

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Speaker 6: NFL postseason. Please like the video too, We greatly appreciate it,

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Speaker 6: And of course, on the listening side of things, five

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Speaker 6: star rating on Apple, Spotify wherever you listen reviews as well.

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Speaker 1: We check that stuff out, so thank you very much.

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Speaker 6: Find each of these guys individually in the free award

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Speaker 6: winning Action Network app. You can find our other NFL analysts.

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Speaker 6: They've been cramming away all year long. And if you

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Speaker 6: are so inclined, check out the Action Network discord server.

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Speaker 6: We have the link in the episode description. You could

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Speaker 6: hop in chat it up with some of the guys

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Speaker 6: here and other gamblers. Creates a nice little community going

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Speaker 6: into the postseason. Four and five and week seventeen, we

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Speaker 6: had Joe Gallant here last week, so we had some

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Speaker 6: plus money with the touchdowns that did deliver for us

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Speaker 6: to Bundo's look Ahead did deliver as well, so ninety

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Speaker 6: one and seventy seven Heading into week eighteen, Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 6: from the Bunker, what do you have for us first

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Speaker 6: best bet for the final regular season weekend of the NFL.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I am glad that we get to fire this

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Speaker 7: one off because I kept checking this line all week thinking, surely,

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Speaker 7: surely it's not going to sit there for us. It's

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Speaker 7: still there. Is the first game of the week, go

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Speaker 7: on Saturday afternoon. Give me the Baltimore resting Ravens plus

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Speaker 7: four against the Steelers. Just honestly a shocking line to me.

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Speaker 7: I just really did not expect that we would still

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Speaker 7: get this above a field goal to the extent that

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Speaker 7: it almost feels fishy to me, like I keep trying

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Speaker 7: to figure out what's missing here, and what's missing is

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Speaker 7: Lamar Jackson and I'm sure some of the other Ravens players,

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Speaker 7: but not everyone can rest Like you can't just go

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Speaker 7: to the practice squad. Guys, the roster is only so deep.

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Speaker 7: If we're playing a lot of Ravens backups, usually still

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Speaker 7: a lot of the defense plays. And by the way

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Speaker 7: Ravens backups play in the preseason, the one thing we

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Speaker 7: know to bet every year is Ravens preseason. So even

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Speaker 7: if this is a Ravens preseason game, like it's still

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Speaker 7: their rival, they can try to knock the Steelers out

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Speaker 7: of the playoffs. Why not, Like this is your chance

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Speaker 7: to go out and play. I would have had Ravens

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Speaker 7: over a touchdown, like Ravens minus seven and a half,

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Speaker 7: eight nine, somewhere in that range. So this is a

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Speaker 7: huge swing over double digits. I don't see the huge swing.

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Speaker 7: Or Pittsburgh is twenty second in DVAA in the last

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Speaker 7: six games. That's basically about what they are. They're basically

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Speaker 7: like the twentieth best team on offense on defense during

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Speaker 7: that stretch, they're fine. And we've seen Mason Rudolph do

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Speaker 7: the backup quarterback thing. A little different playing Baltimore and

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Speaker 7: Mike McDonald than Cincinnati in Seattle, who are two terrible defense,

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Speaker 7: there is a great job lighting them up. You're gonna

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Speaker 7: have a little fun against Mike MacDonald this week, I

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Speaker 7: think so. Honestly, I think Baltimore is the better quarterback still.

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Speaker 7: Tyler Huntley pro bowler. We got Tyler Huntley coming in

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Speaker 7: for Lamar Jackson. He can do a fine job. They've

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Speaker 7: been fine with him in their Steelers have been much

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Speaker 7: worse in the first half this year, So I think

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Speaker 7: that kind of sets up for here we go, Pittsburgh's

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Speaker 7: not coming out well, and Baltimore is hanging around. We

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Speaker 7: got a low total in the mid thirties. We're looking

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Speaker 7: at weather here, whether in the thirties, windy, sixty five

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Speaker 7: percent rain. That sounds low, that's sloppy. That means four

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Speaker 7: points is a lot, right. That means that every point

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Speaker 7: here is even more valuable to us. I have a

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Speaker 7: barrage of trends on the under here. Tyler Huntley games

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Speaker 7: only averaged thirty two points a game for his career,

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Speaker 7: so now four points suddenly is like really valuable to us.

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Speaker 7: And then you know, I gotta do all the trends here,

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Speaker 7: because the trends is what caught miy on this in

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Speaker 7: the first place. John harbors underdog sixty one percent ats

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Speaker 7: division underdog seventy one percent. Some of those are with

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Speaker 7: Tyler hunt Lee, So don't worry about that. With Lamar

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Speaker 7: Rout AFC North, you want the underdog late in the

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Speaker 7: season Week fourteen forward sixty five percent underdogs in the division.

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Speaker 7: And then we know about raw Ra. Earlier this year,

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Speaker 7: we had the blah blah from De Bundo on the podcast.

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Speaker 7: I'm here with the na nah. This is the post

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Speaker 7: raw ra what happens the week after the rah Rah

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Speaker 7: they covered last week as an underdog, the following week

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Speaker 7: after covering as an underdog when Tomlin is more than

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Speaker 7: a three point favorite nine and sixteen ats thirty six percent,

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Speaker 7: going back too far the other way, We've made up

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Speaker 7: too much ground. We're giving them too much credit now.

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Speaker 7: And then the stat I'm sure you heard on a

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Speaker 7: six pack from Stuckey. I use this stat every time

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Speaker 7: I pick this pick, because I pick it every time.

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Speaker 7: When Tomlin Harbaugh play each other, the underdog is twenty

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Speaker 7: three five and three ats eighty two percent, and including

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Speaker 7: when we have a three or more point underdog eighteen

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Speaker 7: one and three against the spread ninety five percent. I

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Speaker 7: think the Ravens hang. I think the Ravens win. I

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Speaker 7: don't mind sprinkling the money line. Funniest possible outcome to

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Speaker 7: me as the jilted Lamar Jackson MVP hater. Lamar's replacement

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Speaker 7: comes in, gets the win with the Leade defense and

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Speaker 7: all the other Baltimore tools, only for Lamar to lose

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Speaker 7: again in the playoffs, just like yeahos does. Give me

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Speaker 7: the Ravens plus four.

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Speaker 6: Of course, I think what's factored in here is the

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Speaker 6: Steelers have to win to make the playoffs. If they win,

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Speaker 6: according to NFL dot com, sixty six percent chance to

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Speaker 6: get in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So they are still alive.

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Speaker 6: And it's not like Mike Tomlin's playing for the winning season,

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Speaker 6: but they could lose and also get in slim chance.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, it's not like we're worried about the raw

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Speaker 6: raw winning season angle here for Mike Tomlin. Luke, you

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Speaker 6: are in agreement here with Brandon you are also on

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Speaker 6: the Ravens plus four Why.

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Speaker 5: Yep, I'm on the Ravens as well, Which this will

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Speaker 5: gonna be pretty quick going after Brandon there where he

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Speaker 5: nailed all the key points really where like if you

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Speaker 5: want to pick between like Mason Rudolph or like Tyler Huntley,

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Speaker 5: like I'm taking Tyler Huntley like easily, and he's an

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Speaker 5: underdog in this game. And I just have a hard

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Speaker 5: time believing that this Ravens team is just going to

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Speaker 5: back down to their divisional rivals and in the Steelers

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Speaker 5: and just like let them win to get into the playoffs.

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Speaker 5: Like I just there isn't a world I see that

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Speaker 5: happening where it would be different if this is like

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Speaker 5: a non divisional game. Maybe the Ravens just don't have

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Speaker 5: the hatred.

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Speaker 3: That they do for their rival.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, Tyler Huntley, pro bowler last year, it's probably

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Speaker 5: one of the better backups in the league. Runs basically

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Speaker 5: is poor Man's Lamar where Yeah, Ravens plus fourth first one,

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Speaker 5: like first one that caught my eye, don't. I don't

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Speaker 5: think they should be a favorite. But plus four is

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Speaker 5: a little bit too. It's just too like quote unquote

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Speaker 5: the cliche had too many points in a spot like this,

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Speaker 5: I'll take the Ravens plus four.

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Speaker 6: I need a doctors note quickly here, mister Nick Giffen

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Speaker 6: Action Network luck rankings.

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Speaker 1: You pen these with Kerner every week.

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Speaker 6: Steelers are the luckiest team in the NFL heading into

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Speaker 6: Week eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Anything to add before you give you first one? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Well, actually I was. I recorded earlier this week with

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Speaker 4: former Action networker Matt Friedman, and we both talked about

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Speaker 4: Ravens plus four in this spot as well. But as

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Speaker 4: far as the luck rankings, I know Brandon mentioned that

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Speaker 4: the Steelers around twentieth and DVA. Well, that's based off

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Speaker 4: of plays that actually happened, which includes a lot of

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Speaker 4: the lucky things that happened, So really they're worse than

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Speaker 4: twentieth when you account for the fact that they've been

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Speaker 4: incredibly lucky. Our schedule adjusted expected scores, which powers the

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Speaker 4: luck rankings, has them closer to twenty fifth in the

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Speaker 4: NFL in terms of just raw strength. So I'm right

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Speaker 4: there in line with these guys on the Ravens plus four.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 6: Why don't you give us your first pick for week

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Speaker 6: eighteen on the podcast?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm going to go to a luck rankings

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Speaker 4: play as well, and this is for the final game

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Speaker 4: of the regular season. We're gonna go Bills and Dolphins

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Speaker 4: under forty nine and a half. This game is a

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Speaker 4: luck under. It's because it has a luck total of

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Speaker 4: minus five point seven. Any luck total below minus five

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Speaker 4: uh is one twenty three eighty four in three. That's

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Speaker 4: nearly forty games above five hundred to the under in

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Speaker 4: the last six years, so over a two hundred game

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Speaker 4: sample size, it has been hitting about sixty percent to

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Speaker 4: the under, including twenty nine, eighteen and one this year

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Speaker 4: at sixty one and a half percent, So you know,

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Speaker 4: definitely a good underspot. And the Miami offense is incredibly

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Speaker 4: banged up. You look at all their key players to

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Speaker 4: a sustained kind of a shoulder stinger a little bit

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Speaker 4: there at the end of their week seventeen game. We

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Speaker 4: have Tyreek Hill who has you know, the ankle spring

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Speaker 4: he's still recovering from, kind of tweaked it again this

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Speaker 4: past week. Jalen Waddle with his own high ankle sprain.

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Speaker 4: Of course, we got Raheem Mostert who has been banged up.

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Speaker 4: So all these key players for Miami that have been

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Speaker 4: scoring all the points banged up in some way, shape

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Speaker 4: or form. Meanwhile, the Bill's defense, they you know, start

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Speaker 4: off the year strong, then they took a whole bunch

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Speaker 4: of injuries, certainly got a lot easier to especially throw on.

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Speaker 4: But they're now getting healthier on the defense, and so

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Speaker 4: that that's going to bolster their defense. All that combined

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Speaker 4: is going to make it really tough for Miami to score.

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Speaker 4: And on the Bills side of the ball, they've actually

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Speaker 4: been pretty run heavy compared to what they've been in

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Speaker 4: the last few weeks. So if that were to continue,

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Speaker 4: that'll eat up some more clock and just kind of

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Speaker 4: keep this game under Plus, we're getting a spot where

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Speaker 4: we have division rivals, and anytime you have two division

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Speaker 4: rivals in a luck under, they hit at a sixty

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Speaker 4: seven percent rate to the under in the second time

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Speaker 4: they face each other, which, of course this is so.

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Speaker 4: I like the under here under forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: I got it under fifty, but definitely like under forty

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Speaker 4: nine and a half as well.

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Speaker 6: All right, very good, a luck under, and Brandon, we're

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Speaker 6: gonna stick on this same game Sunday night for the

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Speaker 6: AFC East Bill's Dolphins. You got to just give the

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Speaker 6: ball to the quarterback, it seems for Buffalo that's the

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Speaker 6: formula at this game kind.

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Speaker 7: Of game, that's the formula, Josh Allen, give me the

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Speaker 7: anytime touchdown, make sure to get the best line. I'm

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Speaker 7: seeing a minus one oh five. A few books out

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Speaker 7: there grab that if you can, and that's a terrible number.

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Speaker 3: I agree.

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Speaker 2: A lot of what Nick said kind of sets up

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Speaker 2: the pick.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 7: We got the CBS receive injury report from Miami. We

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Speaker 7: got Buffalo's power run game, like that's what they've become.

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Speaker 7: Here is the James Cook Power Run Show, except James

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Speaker 7: Cook is the Power Run Show until they get down

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Speaker 7: to the goal line. They don't trust him at the

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Speaker 7: goal line, and they don't trust Latavius Murray at the

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Speaker 7: goal line. Josh Allen's the goal line back in Buffalo.

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Speaker 7: And so here we go. We're just taking the guy

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Speaker 7: that scores the rushing touchdowns for the team that's willed

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Speaker 7: to score a lot because they're favored in the highest

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Speaker 7: total game of the week. So shouldn't this number be

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Speaker 7: a lot higher? I think it should be. Here's some

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Speaker 7: numbers I see. So the Bills this season are top

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Speaker 7: five and rushing touchdowns in the NFL. James Cook has two.

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Speaker 7: James Cook has two rushing touchdowns. Josh Allen has fifteen.

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Speaker 7: He is second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. I

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Speaker 7: didn't even realize that, honestly before looking at this. Josh

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Speaker 7: Allen has scored forty two of Buffalo's forty nine offensive

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Speaker 7: touchdowns this season. Eighty six percent of the scores have

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Speaker 7: been directly from Josh Allen. Pretty valuable if you ask me.

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Speaker 7: And I noticed looking at okay, well, what about near

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Speaker 7: the goal line? Is how what's happening here? Thirty nine

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Speaker 7: times this season Buffaloes run the ball from inside the seven.

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Speaker 7: James Cook is five of those. They are not trusting

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Speaker 7: James Cook down there. They were trying Latavius Murray for

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Speaker 7: a while. I found out there was a split here.

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Speaker 7: I looked back Week six, they play the Giants. Latavio's

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Speaker 7: got stuffed on three straight caes inside the seven, and

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Speaker 7: since then, Josh Allen has had fourteen of the seventeen

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Speaker 7: carries inside the seven. He has seventeen out of those

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Speaker 7: thirty nine for the season, He's scored ten touchdowns on them.

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Speaker 2: For the season.

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Speaker 7: Josh Allen has now scored in five straight games, and

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Speaker 7: by the way, he has two and three of those five,

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Speaker 7: and he has scored in nine of the last ten.

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Speaker 7: He's scored in ten of the last fourteen. Again rushing touchdowns.

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Speaker 7: These are not counting passing touchdowns. That's, of course how

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Speaker 7: the any time Marco works. But I didn't realize the

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Speaker 7: numbers were this high until I dug into it. By comparison,

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Speaker 7: if you play anytime touchdowns, you know, not this week

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Speaker 7: because he's out, but who's the shortest line on the

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Speaker 7: entire board every single week for the season. Christian McCaffrey.

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Speaker 7: Christian McCaffrey has scored the touchdown thirteen on sixteen games

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Speaker 7: for the season. He was listed at minus seven hundred

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Speaker 7: to score at one book last week. Josh Allen is

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Speaker 7: near evan odds at minus one oh five and has

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Speaker 7: scored in twelve of sixteen, one less game from any

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Speaker 7: time touchdown than McCaffrey. So I like Allen here. I

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Speaker 7: think he's gonna score. Obviously, we're gonna get some points

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Speaker 7: in this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm with Nick.

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Speaker 7: Honestly, I'm with the under on this one, but under

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Speaker 7: forty nine and a half, we're still going to get

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Speaker 7: some points out here. So for my money, this is

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Speaker 7: the best quarterback in the NFL this season. I think

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Speaker 7: he should have gotten the Pro Bowl spot over Lamar.

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Speaker 7: I'm gonna throw that into I think he's ticked. He's

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Speaker 7: gonna come out and put up a big game in

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Speaker 7: the finale against Miami, show that he is valuable, get

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Speaker 7: that division win. Miami's all banged up. But rather than

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Speaker 7: play the side, I want to play the side. I

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Speaker 7: got my division ticket. Still, I'm gonna take the Allen

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Speaker 7: touchdown here, by the way, two touchdowns five to one.

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Speaker 7: He's done that in three of the last five, So

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Speaker 7: you know, I love my Escalators me. I want to

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Speaker 7: sprinkle that as well, but give me the Josh Allen

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Speaker 7: anytime touchdown minus one oh five.

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Speaker 4: There's a room for two touchdowns here and still get

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Speaker 4: in the under. So let's be very clear about that.

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Speaker 4: I'm totally with Brandon here, all right.

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Speaker 6: For context, Allen's r rushing yardage prop is at thirty

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Speaker 6: six and a half, and these primetime spots he's gone

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Speaker 6: under the last couple of weeks. The Chargers game stands

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Speaker 6: out is one of those spots in Cook priced at

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Speaker 6: sixty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: But that's Brandon's point.

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Speaker 6: Cook kind of brings me down there and then Josh

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Speaker 6: Allen takes the cake does the rest.

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Speaker 7: I know we've talked about the Josh Allen rushing over

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Speaker 7: in a big game like that's been one of my

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Speaker 7: go tos in the.

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Speaker 2: Spot here, So I did. I looked at that first.

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Speaker 7: Honestly, That's where I got to this one that has

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Speaker 7: not been as strong of the season. I think maybe

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Speaker 7: a little bit is the change from Ken Dorsey to

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Speaker 7: Joe Brady, a little bit change in what they're doing.

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Speaker 7: Like like Nick talked about the power run thing, So

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Speaker 7: I'm not doing the rushing yards here.

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Speaker 2: Who's gonna stick with.

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Speaker 7: The touchdowns, So yeah, I think cook cook for the

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Speaker 7: yards if you want it, but Allen for the touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it's Joe Brady, not Joe Ryan.

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Speaker 6: I was calling him Joe Ryan on Action Island a

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Speaker 6: few weeks ago, thinking of the Minnesota Twins pitcher and

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Speaker 6: not Joe Brady.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Luke, what you got for your second one.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the Titans getting four now host

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Speaker 5: and Jags, which this morning this was Titans plus five

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Speaker 5: and a half, which I'm gonna guess this has come

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Speaker 5: down with probably news or rumors, who knows. Nothing's official yet.

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Speaker 5: I haven't heard anything, honestly that Trevor Lawrence is going

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Speaker 5: to be out. And I definitely was wrong last week

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Speaker 5: back in the Panthers, and I was definitely wrong thinking

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Speaker 5: that Trevor Lawrence is going to play as well last week,

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Speaker 5: which honestly, last week Jags game where they just beat

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Speaker 5: down the Panthers twenty six nothing, I think was a

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Speaker 5: lot more the Panthers than it was the Jaguars, where

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Speaker 5: I mean that Panthers seemed just they looked defeated on

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Speaker 5: the road, and I mean the Jags had four or

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Speaker 5: five field goals and two touchdowns, and one of them

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Speaker 5: was sixty plus, which it is CJ.

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Speaker 3: Bethard.

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Speaker 5: Honestly, I would kind of prefer a better number with Lawrence,

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Speaker 5: but Bethard's fine. They're probably going to run the ball

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Speaker 5: again a ton. They had one hundred plus last week

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Speaker 5: and this is not the team you want to run

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Speaker 5: the ball against. And I was going to put it

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Speaker 5: in Bethard's hands, and I'm fine with that, and the

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Speaker 5: tie had nothing to play for Rabel. I've said one

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Speaker 5: hundred times in this podcast how much I love them,

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Speaker 5: especially as an underdog. And if you saw his press conference,

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Speaker 5: I want to say it was either yesterday or two

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Speaker 5: days ago about losing, and he dropped a few f bombs.

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Speaker 5: He definitely snapped I want to say where he was

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Speaker 5: basically telling us in his preface conference that they're not

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Speaker 5: going to bend over in this game.

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Speaker 8: They're going to go boss.

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Speaker 5: At the Wall divisional game, it was honestly awesome having

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Speaker 5: a press conference like that. I wish every coach could

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Speaker 5: tell us their plans that were eliminated like.

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Speaker 3: He basically did.

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Speaker 5: But Rabel, I'm going to back them as an underdog

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Speaker 5: in every spot. And then if you look at some

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Speaker 5: trends eliminated teams facing teams that have something to play

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Speaker 5: for or one hundred and sixty four hitting sixty one

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Speaker 5: percent of the time, and then teams also who score

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Speaker 5: three points or less in their past game are hitting

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Speaker 5: at sixty percent of the time as well, which would

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Speaker 5: be the Titans. So at plus four, that is totally

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Speaker 5: fine if you didn't get the five and a half,

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Speaker 5: I'm going to take the Titans hosting the Jags.

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Speaker 3: And I mean, yeah, excuse me.

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Speaker 5: It feels like every year the Jacks have their last

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Speaker 5: game to play in and I just remember them blowing

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Speaker 5: against the Colts as like seventeen point favorites two years ago,

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Speaker 5: and they didn't blow it last year, but I think

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Speaker 5: they blew it for like seating last year something. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: the Jags were great at home on the road, They're

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Speaker 5: gonna walk into the mic fable buzz huh.

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Speaker 6: All right, And I would also encourage listeners and viewers

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Speaker 6: to check out Evan Abrams and his incentives article that

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Speaker 6: will be out for this week. DeAndre Hopkins has a

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Speaker 6: lot on the line too that could help you if

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Speaker 6: they want to take this game seriously. Even though there's

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Speaker 6: like rumors and reports that Vrabel wants out in Tennessee

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00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,399
Speaker 6: to get the star receiver what he needs for his

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Speaker 6: possible next destination could help you too.

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Speaker 7: I hope I'll chime in on the Hopkins one that

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Speaker 7: from Evans article. That was the one, the one incentive

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Speaker 7: that I marked more than anything else. So just for

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Speaker 7: listeners here, I haven't even seen prop lines yet for this.

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Speaker 7: Hopkins needs seven catches for two hundred and fifty K

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Speaker 7: needs forty nine receips yards for a million dollars, So

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Speaker 7: forty nine probably a little lower than what his line

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Speaker 7: will be, but you might be able to add in

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Speaker 7: like an alternate fifty. That sort of thing. That just

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Speaker 7: seemed like Hopkins is a veteran. We all like him,

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Speaker 7: Like you want to get your guy paid, Like that's

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Speaker 7: a good look for you for your franchise.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of like that one.

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Speaker 7: I'm pretty cautious on some of these incentives because the

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Speaker 7: incentives you just want to go win the game, right, like, like,

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00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 7: oh you get instead you get two undre freft k bonus,

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Speaker 7: you make the playoffs. Oh cool, Well, I guess I'll

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Speaker 7: try in this game. I wasn't really planning to make

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Speaker 7: the playoffs otherwise, but receptions, receiving yards, you know, like,

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Speaker 7: all right, Tennessee is getting blown out here.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they do.

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Speaker 7: But let's at least get a nuke a few catches

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Speaker 7: the end of the game and hit a couple bonuses

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Speaker 7: for him here. I think it's a good look and

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Speaker 7: good feel for everyone. So yeah, I like that one

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Speaker 7: in particular. I'm glad you brought it up.

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Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Use

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00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 6: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

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00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 6: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

415
00:19:55,119 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 6: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

416
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 6: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 6: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 6: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, Nick Giffen,

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Speaker 6: your second one please. I think this is a luck

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Speaker 6: matchup for targeting.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, you gotta go with the luck rankings here

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Speaker 4: on this one, especially late season as they've been crazy successful.

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Speaker 4: I am going to take the Carolina Panthers plus four

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Speaker 4: and a half, actually got them plus five, but plus

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Speaker 4: four and a half I still like over the Tampa

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Speaker 4: Bay Buccaneers. I mean you mentioned it, Brandon Luck rankings.

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Speaker 4: Carolina Panthers dead last thirty second in the luck rankings,

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers fourth in the luck rankings. That is

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Speaker 4: a difference of twenty eight places. That's important because if

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Speaker 4: we have a twenty four or more place difference in

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Speaker 4: the luck rankings after Week thirteen, the unlucky team is

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Speaker 4: twenty four, three and two against the spread. Over the

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Speaker 4: last six years, and I've only removed one game where

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Speaker 4: a team was either like tanking or resting starters in

435
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 4: the final week of the regular season. That was the

436
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 4: Bears last year, who successfully tanked to the number one

437
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 4: overall draft pick with some help from their former head coach.

438
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 4: But so just this late season luck trend has been

439
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 4: absolutely huge. I mean, twenty one games over five hundred

440
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 4: and twenty nine game sample size is pretty incredible. That

441
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 4: includes just in the final week three to one and

442
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 4: one against the spread. If the luck difference is twenty

443
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 4: four or more and three to zero to one against

444
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 4: the spread, if it's twenty six or more. So not

445
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 4: major sample sizes there, but just going to show the

446
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 4: idea that even in the last week of the regular

447
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 4: season when things get crazy, as long as there's normal,

448
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 4: normal motivation for the under or sorry for the unlucky team,

449
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 4: then everything seems to be just fine. It's also six

450
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 4: three and one in the final week the regular season.

451
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: If the luck gap, which is how we rank them,

452
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 4: is by luck percentage, if that difference in luck percentage

453
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 4: between the two teams, that gap is twenty five percent

454
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 4: or more, we got twenty six point six percent here.

455
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 4: We also have a couple other system trends here dogs

456
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 4: after a blowout fifty eight percent for eleven percent ROI.

457
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 4: Of course, Panthers getting blown out last week, as as

458
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 4: Luke mentioned here, also eliminated teams against teams trying to

459
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 4: make the playoffs over the final two weeks of the

460
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 4: regular season sixty percent just over sixty percent against the

461
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 4: spread since nineteen ninety so a lot of trends here

462
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 4: on These Carolina Panthers were also semi fading the public,

463
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 4: at least according to our Action Network Pro tools here

464
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 4: it's about fifty to fifty in terms of bets on

465
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 4: the Panthers versus the Buccaneers, but ninety percent of the

466
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 4: money is on Carolina. So the big, the professional money

467
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 4: has been on the Panthers. And you know, even just

468
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 4: looking at the histics here, I can definitely get behind this.

469
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 4: If we look at success rates defined as positive EPA

470
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 4: plays offensively on Russian pass plays, Tampa Bay ranks just

471
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 4: twenty seventh. And I know everybody's been high on Baker

472
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 4: Mayfield recently, but we're like at peak Baker aside from

473
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 4: I guess this past week we've been at like peak Baker,

474
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 4: but they're just twenty seventh in offensive success rate while

475
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 4: Carolina is thirtieth. That's only three places difference. And then defensively,

476
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 4: using the same metric, Carolina is twenty third and Tampa

477
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 4: Bay is twenty fifth in defensive success rate allowed, So

478
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,959
Speaker 4: Carolina actually ranking slightly better. So at least going back

479
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 4: to the offense, why does Tampa Bay have a significantly

480
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 4: higher EPA per play? It comes down to explosiveness. Tampa

481
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 4: Bay is sixteenth in explosiveness in terms of exposive play

482
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 4: rate offensively, while Carolina is thirtieth, And Carolina does rank

483
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 4: twenty fourth in defensive exposive play rate allowed, which could

484
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: bite them. So the key here is going to be

485
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: if Carolina can limit the explosive plays, they should be

486
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 4: able to cover this one. And look, these guys are professionals.

487
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 4: Bryce Young is still trying to play for a career,

488
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 4: you know, stats and getting better. All these guys are professionals. Yeah, exactly.

489
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 4: All these guys are still professionals, so they want to

490
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 4: put on the best performance as they can. So I

491
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 4: see this as a normal motivation spot for Carolina. So

492
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 4: they have no reason to tank, right, They're not getting

493
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 4: the number one pick because they traded that away, so

494
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 4: may as well play hard and try to knock their

495
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 4: division rival out of playoffs.

496
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 6: I feel like talking to Nick if in a consecutive

497
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 6: days is helpful for my brain because they feel like

498
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 6: I'm studying for a final and it's one of those

499
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 6: on the flash cards where Nick's giving me that stat

500
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 6: after week thirteen in the luck differential, and it's just

501
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 6: I can't leave my mind. So I have been convinced

502
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 6: on Carolina. I am very much looking forward to it.

503
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 6: And if they stink, it's not Nick's fault.

504
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: They just stink.

505
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 4: That's the thing everybody's I've heard so much. I can't

506
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 4: do the Carolina Panthers. They're awful, they're arriable.

507
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: I can't do.

508
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 4: I can't every time they say they can't. As soon

509
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 4: as people stop betting them, because they've been betting them

510
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: all year, that's when they hit right. It just goes

511
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 4: like that, and.

512
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: That's part of the luck. Like, that's why they're thirty

513
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: second luck.

514
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 4: If they actually just suck that bad, they wouldn't be

515
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,719
Speaker 4: thirty second in our luck rankings. They'd be much higher up.

516
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: So they've had a lot of bad luck this.

517
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: Year, all right.

518
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 6: So from backing an NFC self team, we head to

519
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 6: the last round of picks and Brandon.

520
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: Anderson will put this division in its place with.

521
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 6: A pick I think you've given, Like this is something

522
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 6: you've been on consistently, Brandon the second half of the season.

523
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 3: Yeah.

524
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 7: Actually, I was looking at Luke's pick the Titans. I

525
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 7: had that as my third pick an hour ago to

526
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 7: the line moved at five and a half. I'm still

527
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 7: with Luke, but I probably waited out hope to get

528
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,479
Speaker 7: the Titans later. I then I was scrammling like okay, well,

529
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 7: what's my pick. I wanted James Connor anytime touchdown. I

530
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 7: haven't seen lines yet, but there's a bonus pick for you.

531
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 7: Anything near Evan odds. He's scored in four straight Seattle's

532
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 7: allowed a touchdown, a rushing touchdown at thirteen US and

533
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 7: I think that's a key matchup in that game.

534
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 6: I'll give it to you right now minus one thirty

535
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 6: for James Connor anytime touchdown.

536
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I like that too. That's as a bonus pick.

537
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 7: I'm gonna go to the pick, Brandon that you brought

538
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 7: up now and back to the NFC South in the trashy,

539
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 7: terrible NFC South, one last chance to fade this trash

540
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 7: division before they're out of here. Give me the Falcons

541
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 7: and the Saints under forty two and a half. What

542
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 7: are you doing putting a four in front of a

543
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 7: total for the NFC South games, Like, come on, we've

544
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 7: been watching this all season or trying not to.

545
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 2: Watch all season.

546
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 7: I literally copy pasted my notes from last week and

547
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 7: just changed a couple tiny little numbers and it's the

548
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 7: exact same thing. So here, let me just resummarize for you.

549
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 7: The offenses suck. Nobody knows how to play offense in

550
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 7: this division. You just heard about it from two of

551
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 7: the teams from Nick, I don't have to tell you

552
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 7: much about the Falcons or Saints either. Alvin Kamara high

553
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 7: ankle Sprain. I don't know if he's playing, that'd be

554
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 7: a big miss here. The Falcons are dead last again

555
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 7: running back receptions, so great for me if he's out.

556
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 7: Atlanta's defense been pretty good this season. Actually, they are

557
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 7: number ten in DVA over the last six games. They

558
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 7: have a pretty good success rate on the season. They've

559
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 7: been good on third downs where the Saints are bad offensively.

560
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 7: Saints defense, I've talked on this podcast how they dropped off.

561
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 2: That was mid season.

562
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 7: They've rebounded pretty nicely since then. They got a little

563
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 7: healthier from a lot of the guys missing. They're still

564
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 7: not great against the run lately, but Atlanta apparently doesn't

565
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 7: have run the football anymore. Like they're near the bottom

566
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 7: of the league and rushing lately, so I'm not super

567
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 7: worried there. Saints at home defense is better, offense is worse.

568
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,479
Speaker 7: Atlanta averaging fourteen points a game on the road. And

569
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 7: now back to the stats I copy pasted from last week.

570
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 7: The Saints are now eleven and five to the under,

571
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 7: up a game from last week when we hit it.

572
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 7: The Falcons are ten and six to the under on

573
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 7: the season. And then here's that stat you've heard now

574
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 7: a few times. NFC South games this season average thirty

575
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 7: five point three points a game. Adam, move it up

576
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 7: by tenth point because they scored thirty six and the

577
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 7: game we took last week and hit the under on

578
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 7: so on the season, thirty nine points or less in

579
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 7: nine of ten division games.

580
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 2: Get the NFC South out of here. I don't want

581
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: to watch.

582
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 7: Them anymore, but I'm gonna keep playing The unders. Saints

583
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 7: games are thirty six are below in over half of

584
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 7: their games. Saints would dominated this rivalry and helped kept

585
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 7: Atlanta scoring pretty low, but we get a lot of

586
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 7: a lot of close, one score ugly sort of games.

587
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 7: I just don't see it here. I will say we

588
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 7: may get a bit of a roller coaster late for

589
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 7: whatever reason. Both of these teams are trash offenses through

590
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 7: three quarters and then they're both top seven DVA and

591
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 7: just the fourth quarter. So I would love to take

592
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 7: like a through three quarters under, but I think it'll

593
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 7: be low enough at that point and honestly, they might

594
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 7: both be eliminated by that point too.

595
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 2: If Knicks pick is wrong. I don't think it is.

596
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 7: I like Carolina, but if Tampa goes up big, these

597
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 7: teams are both out at that point anyways, and that

598
00:28:58,160 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 7: would be a way that they might both just kind

599
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 7: of off the dogs and run the ball into the

600
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 7: line a few times and get the stupid division out

601
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 7: of here. So Falcons Saints under forty two and a.

602
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 6: Half, okay, and two head coaches that are under a

603
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 6: lot of scrutiny right now, Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen.

604
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 6: More so Allan because of all the money they've spent

605
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 6: and they have. I would think the Baker Mayfield had

606
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 6: a good year, but Derek Carr was the prize for

607
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 6: them to put them over the top in that division.

608
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 6: That is, so we'll see Brandon will talk about how

609
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 6: much he hates it, Nick and then still want to

610
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 6: bet it.

611
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: So keep you know, it's a little not too hypocritical.

612
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 6: The assessment lines up, but it's interesting he still wants

613
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 6: to bet this division.

614
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: Okay, Luke, your last one for us for Week eighteen.

615
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go to the Giants as a five

616
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 5: point Hunderd Dog hosting the Eagles on Sunday, which I mean,

617
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 5: this Eagles team is just in disarray. I mean, it's

618
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 5: honestly crazy. But this Giants team is They're gritty every

619
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 5: single week. They got nothing to play for. Aligns with

620
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 5: all of the trends that we've been saying in terms

621
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 5: of teams with nothing to play for going against the

622
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 5: team that has something to play for, which the Eagles

623
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 5: technically do, but it's really dependent off of the Cowboys,

624
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 5: who are thirteen point favorites hosting the Commanders.

625
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 3: So the Eagles could sit starters.

626
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 5: I don't think they will, There's no there's nothing in

627
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 5: the news cycle implying it. I would assume DeVante Smith

628
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 5: is probably gonna sit after he got it hurt last week.

629
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 5: But this is one where they don't sit starters. And

630
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 5: they see the Cowboys go up against the Commanders early,

631
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 5: you can totally see them yanking everyone, maybe even before

632
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 5: the first half, because we've seen the Cowboys off season

633
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 5: beat down bad teams and have competitive games with good

634
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 5: teams and usually and lose them. But when they faced

635
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 5: like the bad teams, they beat them down. So I

636
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 5: can see this one getting out of hand early for

637
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 5: the Cowboys, and the Eagles do see that.

638
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 8: It's all the reason for them to pull everyone.

639
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 5: They lost last week, but the week before that when

640
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 5: they won, which was a close one. I forget who

641
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 5: they played, is it the Giants? It was a close

642
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 5: win against someone that they should have blown out, and

643
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 5: like they weren't even excited to win. Maybe they just

644
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 5: need a reset, but this Giants team has been gritty.

645
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 5: Tyrod is three and zer against the spread the season.

646
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 5: Tyrod has always been the guy that instead of Tommy

647
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 5: cutlets the Giants at plus five.

648
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 3: It's just a valuable bat.

649
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 5: And even if they don't pull the starters like this

650
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 5: Eagles d it's just thirtieth a EPA the last six

651
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 5: weeks given up points to absolutely everyone who lost the

652
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 5: Cardinals as twelve and a half point favorites. It's just

653
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 5: like normally you would want to buy low on these

654
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 5: spots for the Eagles or like teams like this that

655
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 5: are considered as good as the Eagles are. But this

656
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 5: defense is just too bad. It's it's a huge problem.

657
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 5: I'll take the Giants to plus five. Who knows they

658
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 5: might even win.

659
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: This is a game that.

660
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 7: Last year's Eagles just like blow out city, like last

661
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 7: year's Eagles against this Giants team. His Eagles all the

662
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 7: way and they ended at halftime, but like this is

663
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 7: the ultimate test. This is not last year's Eagles anymore.

664
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 7: I'm with Luke on this one. Giants was another one

665
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 7: of the picks I was considering here, And just to

666
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 7: point out here too, as Luke was saying, like one

667
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 7: of the other picks, I looked at here. I know

668
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 7: I'm on my eighth pick, but I looked at Cowboys

669
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 7: first half. Cowboys first half are eleven and five ats

670
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 7: and Washington is five and eleven ats. I'm just gonna

671
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 7: point it out because in week eighteen and I have

672
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 7: an article out at Actually now we're pointing out you

673
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 7: can create some fun correlated outcomes here. And if you

674
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 7: think like Luke does, and I agree, if the Cowboys

675
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 7: go up early and that's what causes the Eagles to

676
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 7: call off the Dogs and then lose or not cover

677
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 7: to the Giants, well you can play those two together

678
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 7: because those games are not independent with the way the

679
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 7: results are coming. So if you like the Cowboys to

680
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 7: go up early and you like that to be part

681
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 7: of why the Giants end up covering. You can juice

682
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 7: the odds a little bit and play them both. I've

683
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 7: got some crazy parlay correlations up there, including like one

684
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 7: hundred and fifty eight to one version that the Bills

685
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 7: would need to have a tiebreak scenario at the end

686
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 7: of the night. So yeah, we gay team. You can

687
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 7: have some fun because these games, the games are never independent,

688
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 7: but especially now with the incentives, with the way that

689
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 7: the playoff scenarios go, you can get creative and you

690
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 7: can really find some plus ev edges to build there, so.

691
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 2: That one that Luke just talked about is one of them.

692
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: And also like.

693
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 5: This is like probably one of the better live betting

694
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 5: weeks of the season, which books are always going to

695
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 5: offer live betting. It's not like they can just hold

696
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,719
Speaker 5: back live betting like they're holding back player props right now.

697
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 5: Because to the incentives or who's playing, live betting is

698
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 5: going to be available. If any week you're going to

699
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 5: have be logged in so that you can open it.

700
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 3: Up as fast as possible, this would probably be the week.

701
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: Okay, I said this to Sean Carter yesterday.

702
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 6: My only concern for all of this would be the

703
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 6: Eagles need a get right game, and maybe that's wall starters.

704
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: They've lost four or five. They're not playing.

705
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 6: Even the win against the Giants we just talked about,

706
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 6: they're not playing well. I don't know if they're good

707
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 6: enough to just say yay, you know what, Well this,

708
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 6: you know, will wait till a couple of weeks and

709
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 6: we'll circle the wagons for the playoffs.

710
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: Like they need to get right game. So I don't know.

711
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 5: I feel like I feel like they've had a couple

712
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 5: of get right games in a row at this point.

713
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: You know, whether they do it or not is another question.

714
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, But in terms of motivation, I agree,

715
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 5: just to stay on brand. They will likely play the

716
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 5: NFC South next week, so there's another get right opportunity

717
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 5: for them, just to get one more shot in here

718
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 5: on the NFC South.

719
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, Okay, Nick, take us home last one. We're gonna

720
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 6: shift backwards and go to Saturday Night. And this is

721
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 6: a great segue because he just dumped on the Eagles

722
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 6: and now we're going to talk about the Texans and

723
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 6: Texans Island. But you're gonna go first on this and

724
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:33,399
Speaker 6: give the pick.

725
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sure Brandon is on board with Texans Island

726
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 4: pick here. I'm gonna take CJ. Stroud anytime touchdown. I

727
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,439
Speaker 4: got it eight to one. As we've been recording, it's

728
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: moved to seven to one, but make sure to shop

729
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 4: this and get that number there. But I like this,

730
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,439
Speaker 4: and we'll get to it. But I like this even

731
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 4: at seven to one and even shorter than that.

732
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: C J.

733
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: Stroud this year played in fourteen games. He has touchdowns

734
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 4: in three of them. Right, So if you just do

735
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 4: the simple math three divide of fourteen, that ends up

736
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 4: as plus three sixty seven if that were to be

737
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 4: his long term fair odds. Now we don't know if

738
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 4: they are. I mean, there's a lot of things that'll change,

739
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,399
Speaker 4: but that is still a long way to plus seven

740
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: hundred or plus eight hundred. So even if that's in

741
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 4: the ballpark, we're already getting value just based off the

742
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 4: simple math there. Then we talk about the fact that

743
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 4: we've got an interesting matchup here. He's playing the Indianapolis Colts,

744
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 4: and of course the Colts have allowed the tied ninth

745
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 4: most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year. That includes the

746
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 4: fifth highest yards per rush allowed on QB scrambles this year.

747
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 4: So Indy really hasn't been great at containing QB scrambles,

748
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 4: letting them run for a lot of yards, and twenty

749
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 4: of Stroud's thirty two none kneel down rush attempts have

750
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 4: been scrambles, so he's, you know, pretty much if he's running,

751
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 4: he's scrambling around two thirds of the time. And yeah,

752
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,839
Speaker 4: Stroud did only have the one rush attempt last week

753
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 4: in his return from a concussion. Maybe they were kind

754
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 4: of protecting him a little bit, but I'm less worried

755
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 4: about that with you know, the playoffs on the line,

756
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 4: we've got the potential to win the division even so,

757
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 4: you know, I think at this point you just got

758
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 4: to let Stroud be Stroud, and if he's gonna have

759
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 4: to scramble, if you need a designed run in there,

760
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 4: let him do his thing. So, you know, even baking

761
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 4: in a little bit of caution around him taking hits,

762
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 4: which I think, like I just said, may not even

763
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 4: need to be I'm getting fair odds at around plus

764
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 4: five fifty. If I remove that caution, I'm getting it

765
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 4: just shorter than plus five hundred, So like I said,

766
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 4: plus seven hundred is great. I don't mind if you

767
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 4: want to take this all the way down to five

768
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,240
Speaker 4: to one. But you know, in terms of my actual

769
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 4: fair odds projection, I have around plus five fifty if

770
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 4: we are baking in a little bit of caution here,

771
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 4: but this is just way too long and it's not

772
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,399
Speaker 4: likely to hit. That's why it's five to one, seven

773
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 4: to one, eight to one. But it hits better than

774
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 4: one in six times.

775
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 6: In my opinion, that bodes well for the Texans to

776
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 6: win and make the playoffs, and that would help us

777
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 6: on a variety of fronts, including Brandon's Texans Island, who

778
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 6: he wrote about extensively in his preseason right ups in

779
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 6: the power rankings, the initial power rankings, he had the

780
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 6: Texans very high. Well, here you go, Brandon, I'll hand

781
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 6: the baton to you. This sets up for a variety

782
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 6: of things. I'm not sure about Demiko Ryans as coach

783
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 6: of the Year, but our friend Will Anderson has risen

784
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 6: out of the coffin and he is very much in

785
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 6: play for defensive Rookie of the Year.

786
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 1: If you've been listening.

787
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 6: Faithfully, we have discussed Will Anderson on this podcast a

788
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 6: handful of times, and chances to get in Brandon, go ahead.

789
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 7: Yeah, Texans Island, man. It has been a roller coaster.

790
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 7: It has been a bumpy ride. I've been ready to

791
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 7: get off the ride a few different times.

792
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: This team can't stay healthy, right.

793
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 7: The injuries have just been just awful all season long,

794
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 7: and they keep hanging around, and to their credit, the

795
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 7: Jaguars keep hanging around the other direction.

796
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 6: Right.

797
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 7: That's really the bet was a bet against Jacksonville. And

798
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 7: here we are Week eighteen. Luke and I are Ben

799
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 7: against Jacksonville again. We're both liking the Titans here. The

800
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 7: Texans to win the division. That was the big preseason

801
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 7: bet for me on this podcast. They need to win,

802
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 7: but they need Jacksonville's help. Still any lost Tennessee's help,

803
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 7: I guess, but either way you do it. So yeah,

804
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 7: I believe on six pack. I think Raybond took the

805
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 7: Texans minus one, so Texans aside there.

806
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:36,439
Speaker 2: Hopefully we get a CJ.

807
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 7: Stroud touchdown. Maybe you get a couple of those, just

808
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 7: to be safe. Get next eight to one, seven to

809
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 7: one hit here, and yeah, why not get a little

810
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 7: Will Anderson like stripsack fumble touchdown clincher I don't like.

811
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,720
Speaker 7: I'm assuming the Texans have been on television sometime this season.

812
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 7: We got at least a London game. I believe, I

813
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 7: don't remember watching them on like a national TV game.

814
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,479
Speaker 7: We get a bonus game. They earned it because they're good.

815
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 7: And now they're on TV where the voters have to

816
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 7: watch them, and they're gonna see Will Anderson, you know who.

817
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 2: They're not gonna.

818
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:10,320
Speaker 7: See Jalen Carter and the terrible Eagles defense that haven't

819
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 7: done anything or stopped the nosebleed for the last six

820
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 7: weeks of the season. And like that, honestly, shouldn't early matter.

821
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 7: Don't tell the voters. I think so, but it does.

822
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 7: Like the whole thing with MVP and Coach of the

823
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 7: Year and all these awards is that wins matter, and

824
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 7: who the team is matters, and what the narrative matters.

825
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 7: And the Texans get the big win against the Colts

826
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:31,760
Speaker 7: and Will Anderson.

827
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: Who had two sacks last week.

828
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 7: Will Anderson's making a lot of buzz from like Seth

829
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 7: Walder put up a stat this week, I believe Will

830
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 7: Anderson is top four in pressure rate with Micah Parsons, TJ. Watt,

831
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 7: and Miles Garrett, the three guys who have been the

832
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 7: DPOT leaders all year. Right, Yeah, Garren Parsons won two,

833
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 7: and then he's ahead of TJ. Watt, who's the sack

834
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 7: leader right now, who's in the fourth. So he's been

835
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 7: in the backfield all season. He's been getting run stops

836
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 7: all the season. He missed a couple of games, but

837
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,479
Speaker 7: he plays nearly every snap, so he's still like way

838
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 7: higher and snaps than the other options. I think that

839
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 7: this is very alive. Luke about a month six weeks

840
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 7: ago on this podcast, came in on the Will Anderson

841
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 7: bandwig and then so, Luke, where are you out of

842
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 7: the Will Anderson thing? Are we gonna get this one over?

843
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 5: I mean, I want to say when he got hurt

844
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 5: like two weeks ago or three weeks ago, which was

845
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 5: the same week that Jalen Carter had like his fumble

846
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 5: return for a touchdown and sign against him, and like, yep,

847
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 5: we were like we all jumped into like slack. It's like,

848
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 5: well there it goes. And he was out for two

849
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 5: games and as like he was out, like Jalen Carter

850
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 5: is like his snap rate has been decreasing. Jalen Carter

851
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 5: hasn't really been making a lot of noise, which is

852
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 5: really a combination of probably his position which doesn't get

853
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 5: a lot of sacks, and the team just in shambles defensively,

854
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 5: and Way Anderson, I think he played eighteen snaps last

855
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 5: Sunday and he had two sacks and like five pressures

856
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 5: or something. And I remember watching it on ren Zone.

857
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 5: I'm like, oh God, here we go again. And Jalen

858
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 5: Carter went from a minus two thousand favorite to now

859
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 5: he's minus one fifty. And at this point, which this

860
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 5: is like there's like the human factor in this, Like

861
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 5: people are voting, and it's very easy at this point

862
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 5: to kind of read the tea leaves, whether it's Twitter

863
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 5: or like the Athletic or whatever it is, to see

864
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 5: where these vats are.

865
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 8: Going to be going.

866
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 5: And I'm only seeing Will Anderson. And that guy from

867
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 5: the Rams who hadn't been listed until yesterday. I think

868
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 5: his name is Toby or Kobe Turner. I don't even

869
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,760
Speaker 5: know his name, Kobe Turner, which his odds weren't even listed,

870
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 5: and he might not even play Somenday, which leaves us

871
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 5: Will Anderson. And I mean, there's just a lot more

872
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 5: opportunity for Will Anderson to take this home National TV sacks,

873
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 5: et cetera, where Jalen Carr is going to be playing

874
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 5: pretty much basically a meaningless game on a defense that

875
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 5: is going in the wrong direction.

876
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:57,959
Speaker 8: That won't be on national TV.

877
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 5: So if Will Anderson gets a sad fumble a huge play,

878
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,439
Speaker 5: like I think that honestly, I plus two hundred plus

879
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 5: two seventy five, Like, I wouldn't think you're doing anything

880
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 5: wrong betting him at this point either.

881
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 3: As well, so you feel good about it. I agree.

882
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 7: I want to say I'm excited if you if you

883
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 7: have not played Will Anderson yet, I'm with Luke. I

884
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 7: think you can still play right now. We were talking

885
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 7: just before the show. I honestly think that Will Anderson

886
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 7: should be favored right now. I think the reason he's

887
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 7: not favored is because of odds movement and the way

888
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 7: lines work, and that Jalen Cutter has been such a

889
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 7: huge favorite that like, we have to get there, the

890
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 7: line has.

891
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 2: To move that way.

892
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 7: But as you watch guys who are actually you know,

893
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 7: the folks who are voters, like Nate Tice has his

894
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 7: ballot up today, has a whole thing, goes through the

895
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,359
Speaker 7: options picks Will Anderson. Like if you look, if you

896
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 7: have followed week by week, like we have. It started

897
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 7: as Jalen and it's been moving away. If you haven't

898
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 7: followed this award a week by week like a normal

899
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 7: scene person and are just checking in the vote now

900
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 7: as a voter, which is how ors tend to operate.

901
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,240
Speaker 7: You look at the whole season. Will Anderson's been better

902
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 7: over the whole season and is the hot name at

903
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 7: the end all the better, Like, the sacks are there,

904
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 7: the numbers are there, the snaps are there. If you

905
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 7: played early, if you played in the preseason, I think

906
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 7: I was five to one, then I think you probably

907
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 7: just need to ride this out. If you played when

908
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 7: in the middle of the year, I think, Luke, what

909
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 7: number did you get when you play it A it

910
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 7: was like twenty five to one. Yeah, So if you

911
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 7: have twenty five to one, which I yeah, Luke, at

912
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 7: twenty five to one, I think I was. I think

913
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,760
Speaker 7: I doubled down after like a month at maybe eighteen

914
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,919
Speaker 7: to one or something. If you're there your other option here,

915
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 7: I see less. I see a minus one twenty on

916
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 7: Jalen Carter. You can pretty easily just basically free roll

917
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 7: your Will Anderson. Bet you can hedge out of your

918
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,919
Speaker 7: original amount, cover yourself and then just be your free

919
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 7: role on the Will Anderson come through. So I think

920
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:55,839
Speaker 7: you got a lot of options here, just to kind

921
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 7: of give you some ideas of this is the look ahead.

922
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 7: For the look ahead is Will and since Saturday night

923
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 7: Texans Island CJ.

924
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: Stroud, it's all of it.

925
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 1: Nick's probably like, all right, I want.

926
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 8: I gotta look ahead.

927
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 4: I've got to look ahead too. Deron Bland Defensive Player

928
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 4: of the Year two hundred to one. Yeah, I gave

929
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 4: it out the other day. Brandon just mentioned it. The

930
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 4: voters are just tuning in. They look at certain things,

931
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 4: and I think a couple of things to look at

932
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 4: is well.

933
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,280
Speaker 1: He broke the record.

934
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 4: On Thanksgiving in an Island game for pick sixes in

935
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 4: a season.

936
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: He was Defensive Player of the Month in November. You

937
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 1: know who.

938
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 4: There's only three guys right now in Defensive Player of

939
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 4: the Year with odds shorter than sixty one. That's Miles Garrett,

940
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 4: who's the favorite at minus t twenty or so. Micah Parsons,

941
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 4: which of course is teammate to Deron Bland and TJ.

942
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: Watt.

943
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 4: Only TJ Watt of those and Micah Parsons have been

944
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:02,240
Speaker 4: defensive player of the month, not favorite Miles Garrett TJ.

945
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 4: Watt might not even make the playoffs. That would almost

946
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 4: have to eliminate him from consideration of his team doesn't

947
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 4: even make the playoffs, So Deron Bland kind of sticks out.

948
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 1: Just because of that factor.

949
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 4: National TV breaking the record and right now he's tied

950
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 4: for the record in terms of most defensive touchdowns in

951
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 4: a season. That's because you also include fumble recovery touchdowns.

952
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 4: If he were to get one in the final week

953
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 4: of the season, that's the last thing fresh on voters' minds.

954
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 4: As well. He breaks the record most defensive touchdowns in

955
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 4: the NFL. What does a defender's job. Defenders job is

956
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 4: to prevent teams run the ball and to prevent teams

957
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 4: from throwing the ball. If we look at EPA in

958
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 4: terms of tackles for losses plus passes defended, number one

959
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 4: in the NFL, Deron Bland. So just something there, a

960
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 4: little sprinkle at two hundred to one. Sam Howell be

961
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 4: in the quarterback helps this, I think, instead of Jacoby

962
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 4: Brissett because I think it increases the odds of a

963
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 4: pick six. So why not just a little sprinkle there.

964
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 8: I'll throw one out there too.

965
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 5: How about Browns to win the AFC Championship eighteen to one, which, honestly,

966
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 5: in the AFC, like Miami's in shambles, the Bills, who

967
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 5: I'm heavily invested in, there is a way more likely

968
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 5: scenario for them to miss the playoffs, and I honestly

969
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 5: thought there was going.

970
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 3: To this week.

971
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 5: But like outside of like honestly the Bills in Miami

972
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 5: and I might be in I guess the Chiefs. The

973
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 5: Chiefs are not the Chiefs. Like, the biggest threats to

974
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 5: the Ravens to me is the Browns, which is the

975
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 5: divisional opponent rival in Joe Flacco. I think that if

976
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 5: the Ravens have a kryptonite in this playoffs, it could

977
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 5: be the Browns. At eighteen to one, I think that

978
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,399
Speaker 5: as value, it definitely shot round. That might not even

979
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,800
Speaker 5: be the best price. But I'll throw out the Browns

980
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 5: to win the AFC Championship.

981
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 6: Okay, I double checked this. Also, just last note on

982
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 6: Will Anderson and the Texans. Not only did they not

983
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:03,839
Speaker 6: play a single Island game this year Sunday night, Thursday night,

984
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 6: Monday night, they never played in the four o'clock window.

985
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:09,399
Speaker 6: They didn't even get Nancy Romo, like.

986
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 8: Four third they only had a Thursday night game.

987
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 1: They had, No, they didn't play Thursday. They played one

988
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: o'clock every Sunday until this weekend.

989
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 5: Every team's guaranteed a primetime game. No, they got the

990
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 5: London game this weekend. Oh wait, they did away with

991
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 5: the guaranteed, didn't they. Yes, this was the first year

992
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 5: they didn't, and it was like them the Falcons and

993
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:26,919
Speaker 5: someone else.

994
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 8: You're right, Yes, they.

995
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 1: Didn't play on the Amazon Prime.

996
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:33,280
Speaker 6: Michaels didn't get to scoff at them earlier when Strau

997
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 6: was out. They haven't played a single primetime game Thursday Monday.

998
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 5: And when Strauda's going ham like, they were like the

999
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 5: public team for a good shunk of this season.

1000
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: Everyone got to watch on the red zone.

1001
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, including me.

1002
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 1: Okay, that's what that's crazy.

1003
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 6: When Brandon said it, I'm like, I think he's right,

1004
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:53,879
Speaker 6: and then I went and looked at him. They didn't

1005
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 6: play a single game by themselves all.

1006
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 1: This year, and they get it this weekend. Oh it's

1007
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 1: setting up. I'm too excited, all right.

1008
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 6: Got to stay in control here and assume that it

1009
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 6: might not go well, because that's how you be mature.

1010
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 6: As a better for Luke swayn Aka Vegas refund. Brandon Anderson,

1011
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 6: Nick Giffin, Brendan Lashen. Thank you all for listening to

1012
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,439
Speaker 6: the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week eighteen Best

1013
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 6: Bets episode, presented by our friends at bet MGM.

1014
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network app.

1015
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 6: We've got the Sunday six pack up with Stucky and Raybond,

1016
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 6: and we get the recap show coming on Monday.

1017
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 1: We will be here.

1018
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 6: We will have a Best Bets podcast for the postseason,

1019
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 6: so stay tuned for that. We will be here, a

1020
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,800
Speaker 6: wild Card weekend, Divisional Round weekend, AFC Title weekend, et cetera,

1021
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 6: so NFC Title weekend.

1022
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 1: As well Championship weekend. Be on the lookout for that information.

1023
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 6: Thank you all so much for listening to the Action

1024
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,760
Speaker 6: Network podcast presented by bet MGM.

1025
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 1: Good luck go, Will Anderson.

1026
00:48:54,880 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 6: We'll talk to you next week. Action Network reminds you

1027
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 6: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

1028
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 6: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

1029
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 6: seven at one eight hundred Gambler