WEBVTT - U.S. Faces Cold War 2.0 With China

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio DATDS and go

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<v Speaker 1>by without obviously significant headlines out of China. We're watching

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<v Speaker 1>their economy, which we know is seeing pressures. We also

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<v Speaker 1>see Chinese official es Central Bank announcing lots of measures

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<v Speaker 1>to christian the economy, and so he watched up playing

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<v Speaker 1>out in the market's government departments today pledging more steps

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<v Speaker 1>to help companies resume production and key sectors. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think what's interesting, Tim, this is all against a longer

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<v Speaker 1>term backdrop of China's made in China statelet industrial policy

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<v Speaker 1>to really change to make China so dominant in global

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<v Speaker 1>high tech manufacturing. They want to be the world's dominant

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<v Speaker 1>power on so many different levels. They certainly do. And

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<v Speaker 1>we're really lucky to have joining us Robert Spalding, retired

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<v Speaker 1>Brigade your General for the U. S. Air Force. He's

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<v Speaker 1>the author of War Without Rules, China's playbook for global domination.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us via zoom from Washington, d C. General,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you, thank you, hey, It's good to have

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<v Speaker 1>you with us. I just want to start with with

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening in China right now. Uh, we see supply

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<v Speaker 1>chain scenaris as a result of yet another lockdown, this

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<v Speaker 1>one the biggest lockdown in Shanghai. And I'm wondering if

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<v Speaker 1>that is a weak point for China right now, because

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<v Speaker 1>you do argue that China has thrown out the old

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<v Speaker 1>rules of war. Well, I don't know if it's a

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<v Speaker 1>weak point or they're actually testing our ability to weather

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<v Speaker 1>through the supply chain shortages that are leading to increase

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<v Speaker 1>inflation in our own economy. So it's not just a

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<v Speaker 1>FED lifting the money supply, it's also the shortages of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the type of goods that you know is

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<v Speaker 1>adding to this increasing inflation that is really you know,

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<v Speaker 1>gnarling our our own society. So there's a there's, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a given take here that we have to be aware of.

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<v Speaker 1>You are a former China strategist for the Chairman of

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<v Speaker 1>the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Joint Staff at

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<v Speaker 1>the Pentagon, also UH senior defense official and Defense tash

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<v Speaker 1>A to China. I mean, you understand this country. You

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<v Speaker 1>speak Mandarin, you have watched I'm I'm assuming the evolution

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<v Speaker 1>of this country, which we thought that by being involved

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<v Speaker 1>would kind of bring us all closer uh in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of globalization, but we're definitely seeing a different China play out.

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<v Speaker 1>Why did you want to write this book? Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>wrote a book back in nineteen after I left the

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<v Speaker 1>White House trying to explain what I had witnessed during

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<v Speaker 1>my almost ten years working on US China relations in

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<v Speaker 1>the Pentagon and then as a senior defense official in Beijing.

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<v Speaker 1>And one of the real crucial documents that I relied

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<v Speaker 1>on for that book was Unrestricted Warfare. But Unrestricted Warfare

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<v Speaker 1>is so hard to read and inaccessible. I wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>bring it out and allow regular people and policymakers to

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<v Speaker 1>really understand the way the Chinese think. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's what war without rules is. It's it's allowing people

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<v Speaker 1>to understand how the Chinese communist parties thinks in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of competition and warfare with the West, which is totally

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<v Speaker 1>the alien to the way we think about war and

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<v Speaker 1>really doesn't involve weapons at all, and just bring that

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<v Speaker 1>out so people can understand and anticipate how the Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>might act or react to any given situation. What does

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<v Speaker 1>our audience need to understand? What does our investor audience

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<v Speaker 1>need to understand when when thinking about China's push for

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<v Speaker 1>for global domination your words China's playbook for global domination. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think for investors, one of the challenges with regard

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<v Speaker 1>to investing in China, particularly if you have assets in China,

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<v Speaker 1>is a non convertible nature of their currency and their

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<v Speaker 1>strict capital controls. You know, once you've gotten assets there

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<v Speaker 1>in China, it's very hard to get them out. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's a problem. And ultimately, if you have a relationship

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<v Speaker 1>with China, you can find yourself the subject of Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>Communist Party influence. So Marriott Corporations saw that when they

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<v Speaker 1>were asked to fire one of their employees that like

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<v Speaker 1>to tweet. Then NBA saw that lost revenues when Daryl

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<v Speaker 1>Morey tweeted. So what happens when you are a country

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<v Speaker 1>or a company that's trying to either sell to China

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<v Speaker 1>or in some way be financially related to China, You're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna find that you're that you have to listen to

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<v Speaker 1>what the Communist Party says, or it can be financially

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<v Speaker 1>detrimental to your business. You know. General, I wonder if

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<v Speaker 1>companies global companies misread China they thought by being involved,

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<v Speaker 1>that they would become that China would become more westernized.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's not what's happening, is it. Well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I lived in China, Shanghai uh and What's University from

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand two to two thousand four, and all of

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<v Speaker 1>my neighbors were building factories in the Shanghai Spectral Economic Zone.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is what I heard nearly universally, is that

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<v Speaker 1>we were going to somehow transform China to be like

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. And I thought that was a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit arrogant at the time, But yeah, truthfully, what's happened

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<v Speaker 1>is rather than us changing China to be more like

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<v Speaker 1>the US, they've been able to change us to be

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<v Speaker 1>more like them. And then again, it's through these relationships

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<v Speaker 1>where they're allowed to influence our corporate sector, financial sector,

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<v Speaker 1>or political system or academia. So it's a big problem. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it's interesting coming out a time when

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<v Speaker 1>we're focusing so much on E. S G factors and

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<v Speaker 1>companies saying we've got to take a stand on these

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<v Speaker 1>social policies. Our workers wanted, our customers were wanted, and

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<v Speaker 1>yet when it comes to China, you do feel like

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<v Speaker 1>everybody is so careful and so delicate with us. Right

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<v Speaker 1>now is Robert Spalding, retired Brigadier General for the U.

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<v Speaker 1>S Air Force. We are talking about his book War

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<v Speaker 1>Without Rulers, China's Playbook for Global domination. He's a former

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<v Speaker 1>China strategist for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of

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<v Speaker 1>Staff and the Joint Staff the Pentagon, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>a senior defense official and defense attache to China. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead, you actually we have like a million questions. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we've been talking during the break, Brigadier General. Uh. You

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<v Speaker 1>know something we've been thinking a lot about over the

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<v Speaker 1>last couple of months, leverage in terms of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what the US has done in the international community, have

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<v Speaker 1>done the UK the you, the U S in response

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<v Speaker 1>to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And I wonder if we

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<v Speaker 1>would do the same thing to China. And the reason

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<v Speaker 1>why if China were to do something on an international

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<v Speaker 1>scale similar to what Russia has done, because that was

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<v Speaker 1>part of the conversation early on in the invasion. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm thinking to myself, you know, the US and

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<v Speaker 1>global supply chain is so much more intertwined with China

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<v Speaker 1>than it is with Russia. In other words, we depend

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<v Speaker 1>so much more on China than we do on Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm wondering your take on that. What kind of

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<v Speaker 1>leverage does the US have when it comes to dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with China. Well, I think at this point very little.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they have a non convertible currency and strict

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<v Speaker 1>capital controls. Of course, the control most of the industrial

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<v Speaker 1>based supply chain of the world. So I think we

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<v Speaker 1>would be hard pressed. And I think what China wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to do with regard to this Russian invasion of Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>is to see what other message methods we brought out

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<v Speaker 1>to put pressure on the Russians that they might see

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<v Speaker 1>in the Taiwan scenario. So I think they have done

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<v Speaker 1>a good job of in elating their economy from any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of attacks, whether they be financial or trade related,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've done even more now and are going to

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<v Speaker 1>do even more realizing what we've been able to do

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<v Speaker 1>with the Russian economy. But again, having a closed financial

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<v Speaker 1>system really insulates him from a lot of the effects

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<v Speaker 1>that the Russians have seen as a result of their

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<v Speaker 1>invasion of Ukraine. You know, I do wonder too when

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<v Speaker 1>you say close financial system, and increasingly China has a

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<v Speaker 1>closed system to the world in terms of how it

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<v Speaker 1>does things. Will that since it feels like the endgame

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<v Speaker 1>for China um general is all about influence in the

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<v Speaker 1>world on a global scale. But if they continue to

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<v Speaker 1>cut themselves off in some ways, can they be as

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<v Speaker 1>influential as they want to be? No? And I think

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<v Speaker 1>you saw that when they tore up the trade deal,

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<v Speaker 1>the original trade deal that was negotiated by Ambassador Leightheiser.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they signaled that they were going to begin

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<v Speaker 1>to decouple themselves from the global economy. Now they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to take as much as they can before they go.

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<v Speaker 1>But ultimately, they wanted to make sure that the United

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<v Speaker 1>States did not have the type of books that China

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<v Speaker 1>has into the United States. And so they weren't going

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<v Speaker 1>to give up, you know, control. They weren't going to

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<v Speaker 1>give up. For instance, we've been hearing that they are

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<v Speaker 1>going to allow their companies to be audited, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as for the new law passed by Congress. But I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think they're actually going to do that. They're going

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<v Speaker 1>to signal that they're going to do that, but they

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<v Speaker 1>won't make take the full step because they are concerned

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<v Speaker 1>about the United states influence over their own economy, something

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<v Speaker 1>that they want to have, you know, influence over ours,

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<v Speaker 1>but does don't want the alternative to happen. So what's

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<v Speaker 1>the endgame here? Though? Ultimately we've often talked about the

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<v Speaker 1>world splitting into you know, China with its allies in

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<v Speaker 1>the US and certain Western nations, although that gets a

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<v Speaker 1>little complicated to uh and it's Alice. Is that where

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<v Speaker 1>we're going? And I do think about is to mention

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<v Speaker 1>you know, our audience, our investment audience, like, what do

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<v Speaker 1>they need to be thinking about in this situation as

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<v Speaker 1>you put it out in your book. Well, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>like I said before, they have a non convertible currency

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<v Speaker 1>and strict capital controls. There's a lot of money that's

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<v Speaker 1>never coming out of China. Yes, we are resolving into

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<v Speaker 1>more of a bipolar world. We are splitting apart. I think, um,

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<v Speaker 1>for one, I would not be investing in China, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's a lot of people who recognized now

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<v Speaker 1>that China is uninvestable. I think the other the corollary

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<v Speaker 1>that goes along with this, at some point you're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have to write off those assets. You're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to recover that's going to be painful for

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<v Speaker 1>for people, but ultimately, you know it is inevitable. But

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<v Speaker 1>what about companies that have large exposure to China? I

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<v Speaker 1>mean a company like Apple, for examples, of the company's

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<v Speaker 1>revenue actually comes from greater China. What about that and

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<v Speaker 1>and that's just revenue. I mean you think about what

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<v Speaker 1>it does with the Taiwanese company fox Con and other

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturers there. Does that mean Apple's uninvestable? Well, it depends

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<v Speaker 1>on what you assessed to be uninvestable. I think a

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese company that can basically wipe out the share whole

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<v Speaker 1>holders as can be done because the Communist Party basically

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<v Speaker 1>has full control over their economy is I would say,

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<v Speaker 1>more uninvestable than say an Apple. So yes, an Apple

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<v Speaker 1>is exposed to China. But ultimately, as we have this

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<v Speaker 1>too coupling, Apple is going to continue to survive and

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<v Speaker 1>thrive as a company, and probably I think ultimately they

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<v Speaker 1>will be within societies that are thriving and more prosperous

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<v Speaker 1>than they currently are because the supply chains are in China.

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<v Speaker 1>So ultimately, yeah, we're gonna have a smaller um. All

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<v Speaker 1>these companies that are relying on China for their numbers

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<v Speaker 1>they are gonna be they're gonna be smaller afterwards. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think ultimately as a society, we're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>better off because there's not going to be this influence

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<v Speaker 1>of a totalitarian regime onto our corporate, financial, and academic

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<v Speaker 1>and political systems. But online, would you say that China

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<v Speaker 1>is at war with the world, or at least with

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<v Speaker 1>the United States specifically, and we can't think of war

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<v Speaker 1>and conventional military you know, military modes if you will,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, they tend to wage a quiet war, right

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<v Speaker 1>and and the whole point of war without rules to

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<v Speaker 1>show people that the that China is a war with

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<v Speaker 1>the United States, and it's a different kind of war.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not a war that we would necessarily fight, but

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<v Speaker 1>it is one nonetheless, and it ultimately results in, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>less prosperity for American people. And so I think ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>recognizing this and beginning to invest in ourselves infrastructure, manufacturing,

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<v Speaker 1>science and technology, STEM education, these are things that we

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<v Speaker 1>haven't invested in ourselves in over thirty years, I think

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<v Speaker 1>we'll eventually lead us into a more prosperous place. Is

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead, Carol, Is there the political will to do that?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, Washington gets faulted for such short

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<v Speaker 1>term thinking. But I'm wondering if there's political will to

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<v Speaker 1>actually on shore in that way and just quickly if

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<v Speaker 1>you could. Yeah, you know, I think that we did

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<v Speaker 1>it during the first Cold War. We're in a Cold

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<v Speaker 1>War again. I think we can must do that. So yes,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, gonna leave it there, Thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Really enjoy this. Uh retired brigadier don't know the US

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<v Speaker 1>Air Force. Robert Spaulding his book War Without Rules, China's

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<v Speaker 1>Playbook for Global domination