1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Michigan has become the first date 4 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: in sixty years to have right to work laws repealed. 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: We have such a great show for you today. Politico's 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: Rachel Baide gives us an update on the never ending 7 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: chaos in Congress. Then we'll talk to on the tape 8 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: host Dan Nathan about what's happening with our economy. But 9 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: first we have the editor of Balls and Strikes, Jay Willis. 10 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fast Politics. 11 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: Jay, thank you so much for having me to talk 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: about Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl. I wasn't expecting 13 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: an invitation to talk about this, but I can go 14 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 2: for two hours, three hours? How long do you want 15 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: to do this? 16 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: So it was fixed? 17 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 3: Right? 18 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: Yes? Okay, clearly? 19 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 2: Oh shit, wait, people are going to listen to this right. 20 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Explain to me what's happening in Fulton County right now? 21 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: Well, boy, so, the prosecutor in Fulton County, Fanny Willis 22 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 2: no relation, has been leading an investigation into Donald Trump's 23 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 2: efforts to Sorry for the legal jargon here, but fuck 24 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: with the vote count in the twenty twenty presidential election 25 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: in Georgia, Donald Trump unquestionably did like some very bad 26 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 2: things in there. He you know, was on the phone 27 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 2: with the secretary of State, the Republican secretary of State 28 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:25,639 Speaker 2: in Georgia, urging him to and I'm quoting here find 29 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 2: the votes or threatening him with some sort of like 30 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 2: vaguely defined criminal prosecution. I have no idea what Trump 31 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 2: was referring to. I kind of assumed he didn't know 32 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 2: what he was referring to either. But this is the 33 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: sort of thing that one does not do without incurring 34 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 2: the wrath of a prosecutor. The problem is that this 35 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 2: particular prosecutor apparently had an affair with someone in her office, 36 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 2: which is just like deeply misguided on several levels. But 37 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: what it's led to is Trump's defense team basically arguing 38 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: that the whole case needs to get thrown out, that 39 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: it is tainted by this scandal, and he might prevail 40 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: on that. I really know yet, but generally speaking, when 41 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 2: you're a prosecutor and things are on the rocks because 42 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 2: of who you slept with, it's not going great. 43 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, what is the larger implication for this? 44 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 2: I mean, so there are several parallel investigations into Donald 45 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 2: Trump's various alleged forms of criminality. Right, this case is 46 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 2: being brought by a local prosecutor. It is independent from, 47 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 2: for example, the criminal investigation into Trump in DC, which 48 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 2: is not to be confused with the civil investigation into 49 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 2: Trump in New York and so on and so forth. 50 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 2: But I think the real damage here is sort of 51 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 2: in the way that Trump is going to start spinning 52 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 2: this sort of thing if he can create a narrative 53 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 2: among his followers and among people who might be susceptible 54 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 2: to being his followers, that it is in his best 55 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: interest to sort of lump these different criminal investigations together. 56 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 2: And if he can use Fanny Willis's misconduct in one 57 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 2: particular investigation to sort of smear all of the criminal 58 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: investigations against him as tainted, as biased, as Democratic hit jobs, 59 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: that's good for him, which is exactly why he's trying 60 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 2: to muddy the waters here. 61 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 1: Yeah. The other thing that it does, right is that 62 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: it aids one of Trump's biggest legal tactics, right, which 63 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: is delay. 64 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 2: That's right for both legal and practical reasons, Like, legally speaking, 65 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: if he is the nominee and wins election and becomes 66 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: the president again, he suddenly has a whole lot of 67 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 2: control over the federal investigations into him. I mean, setting 68 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 2: aside the obvious issue of whether or not the president 69 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 2: should be directing Department of Justice investigations. Of course, not 70 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 2: like it's not like Donald Trump gives a shit about that. 71 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: He would presume just take action and kill that on 72 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: day one. But then also, just like practically politically speaking, 73 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 2: if he is president, I think it becomes a whole 74 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: lot more fraught, for example, for a local prosecutor like 75 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 2: Fanny Willis to prosecute him. So he is doing everything 76 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 2: he can in this investigation, in other investigations to just 77 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 2: run out the clock. I don't know if he's going 78 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 2: to be able to run out the clock on every 79 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 2: one of them. But again, the more he is able 80 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 2: to narrow down the scope of legal problems he faces, 81 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 2: the better his odds are of wriggling out of it. 82 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 1: One more time. I want to just unpack this for 83 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 1: another minute. So basically Trump is doing two things here. 84 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: He wants to discredit this investigation by sort of spreading 85 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: salacious gossip about Fanny Willis right that she was cheating 86 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 1: on her spouse or she actually wasn't married but her 87 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: boyfriend was cheating on his spouse. By the way, the 88 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: irony here, the thrice married adulter who has his problem 89 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: where he paid off a porn star and that's one 90 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: of his many legal challenges, is sort of rich. But 91 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: basically what he's trying to do here is try this 92 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: case with his people, his fans, right, that's right. 93 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 2: A lot of this is effectively going on in the 94 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 2: court of public opinion. I mean, what's happening with Fanny 95 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 2: Willis is a part of like functionally more of a 96 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 2: pr campaign than anything else. Right, If he can portray 97 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 2: the prosecutor who is investigating him as tainted, as biased, 98 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 2: as just as mired in scandal, is he is, that's 99 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 2: a victory. Like he doesn't necessarily have to rise above it, right, 100 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 2: dragging everyone else down to his level creates the same result. 101 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 2: I will say, Like, if you're a prosecutor, like, come on, 102 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: it's so easy not to sleep with one of your colleagues. 103 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 2: You got to not do that. One of the clearest 104 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: through lines of the legal system in this country is 105 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 2: prosecutors fucking up and doing something dumb. At the worst 106 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: possible time. But like at the same time, it's not 107 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: like that changes what Trump did. So again it's the 108 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 2: creation of an additional salacious story to the salacious story 109 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 2: that landed Trump in court in the first place. And 110 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: the last thing I'll say about this is if a 111 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 2: judge disqualifies Fanny Willis Fanny Willis's office, the case could 112 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 2: go forward still. But again, as you say, it's all 113 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: about delay. Reading about reporting this morning, there's only a 114 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 2: few other das in Georgia who have the bandwidth to 115 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 2: take on a case like this. So if Fanny Willis 116 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 2: gets booted, suddenly we're looking for somebody else, like who 117 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: has the manpower, who has the bandwidth to do this? 118 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 2: Maybe there is someone, But how long does that process take? 119 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 2: The longer it takes, the closer we get to election day, 120 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 2: and the closer this gets to practically speaking. 121 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 1: Not mattering, right, and that's the golf for Trump. But 122 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: also it would take a long time for a Fanny 123 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: Willis replacement to get read in on this case, right, 124 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: Can you talk about that? Because the preparation it's month 125 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: to month. 126 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 2: And month sure, I mean, nothing in the legal system 127 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 2: ever moves in like sort of the expeditious timeline that 128 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 2: we're used to that perhaps we would like to see 129 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 2: for purposes of the news cycle, for purposes of on election. 130 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 2: That is very much fixed on the calendar. And a prosecutor, 131 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 2: even someone who wanted to take this case, even if 132 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 2: they could take it on, like, they can't go into 133 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 2: court tomorrow and start freely discussing the subject matter. They 134 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 2: have to get read up on it, just like Willis 135 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: has been over the development of the case. So yeah, 136 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 2: it's not just a matter of designating another lawyer. It's 137 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 2: designating another lawyer, another da I mean, who can then 138 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:52,239 Speaker 2: begin the arduous process of reading in on the file 139 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 2: enough to actually be able to do something with it. 140 00:07:54,640 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: But also today Trump had another legal snaffo. Can you 141 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: talk about this? 142 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 2: So yeah, the case in New York is going considerably 143 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 2: different than the one in Georgia, very different. Tenor no 144 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 2: prosecutors sleeping with other prosecutors to the best of our knowledge. 145 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 2: And in that one we actually have a trial on 146 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 2: the calendar. Now the judge says the hush money trial 147 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: is going to go forward on March twenty fifth. That 148 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 2: is a case in New York State Court. So it's 149 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 2: not something that if he were to become president he 150 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 2: could do anything about. Yeah, the specter of this man 151 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 2: being in court again, in a courtroom passing notes to 152 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 2: his attorney on the rare occasions he constrained together more 153 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 2: than three or four words written down, that'll be fun. 154 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: I do think that Trump is not happy being a defendant. 155 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: I go back and forth on that question, sort of 156 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,559 Speaker 2: the perils of trying to psychoanalyze a man whose brain 157 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 2: consists mostly of cottage cheese. I do sort of think 158 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: sometimes that, like me, he doesn't think that any of 159 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 2: this will ever result in meaningful legal consequences for him. 160 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 2: He has derived that lesson from living his entire life, 161 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 2: in which there have never been any meaningful legal consequences 162 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 2: for anything. If you sort of take him as someone 163 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 2: who is running for president largely because he has nothing 164 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 2: else to do, and also it seems like probably the 165 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 2: best weapon he can wield in his legal fights. I 166 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 2: sort of think he does like being able to frame 167 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 2: himself as a victim persecuted on multiple fronts in multiple states, 168 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 2: in different courtrooms, which is why, again, this Fanny Willis 169 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 2: thing is such a godsend for him, because what is 170 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 2: the George of prosecution about again who knows, right, we're 171 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 2: talking about the personal lives of the prosecutors now, not 172 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,839 Speaker 2: the stuff that landed Trump there in the first place. 173 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 2: It's of course, like benefits him. That's exactly what he wants. 174 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: Right, exactly, But it is silatious and it's legal, and 175 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: it's coming. So just give us an update on where 176 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: these are. Other cases are the immunity case, will you 177 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: explain to us what an ongoing bonk is and what 178 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: that means and if that's happening. 179 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 2: Yes, so, in the Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, 180 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 2: Trump has asserted that as president he has absolute immunity 181 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 2: against criminal prosecution for any acts that he committed as president. 182 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 2: If you want to like go a level or two deeper, 183 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: His argument is that as president, to basically, impeachment is 184 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: the only method of holding him legally accountable. Therefore, unless 185 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 2: he was impeached and convicted by the Senate, he has 186 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 2: immunity from criminal prosecution for it. Today, there are sort 187 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: of a number of problems with this, namely that it 188 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 2: resolves the issue of the president's criminal acts entirely to 189 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: like the ability to marshal a two thirds majority in 190 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 2: the Senate, which, like, I don't know if we could 191 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 2: get two thirds of the Senate to agree on anything, 192 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 2: much less convicting a president on impeachment charges. Fortunately, the 193 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 2: DC Circuit rejected Trump's claim of absolute presidential immunity, and 194 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 2: he is now asking the Supreme Court to sort of. 195 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,079 Speaker 1: Block that ruling to do him as solid. 196 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 2: Yes while he seeks what's called en banc review, basically 197 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 2: asking the entire DC Circuit to hear the case rather 198 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 2: than the smaller three judge panel that issued that decision 199 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 2: on bank review is sort of the last step before 200 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 2: appealing the merits to the Supreme Court. 201 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: Would you think the Supreme Court will go along with God, 202 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: King Emperor Trump or now? 203 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 2: I do not think that they will want to set 204 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 2: a precedent of presidents can never be prosecuted criminally for 205 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 2: anything they do in office. 206 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 1: I think the only. 207 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 2: Question is exactly how they how they try and dispose 208 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 2: of it to make as few waves as possible. I 209 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 2: don't think there's any way they can do it without 210 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 2: making waves. It's just how big are those going to be? 211 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 2: And what could they be the easiest thing they could 212 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 2: do is just decline to hear the case, right to 213 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 2: just let the DC Circuit's opinion speak for itself and 214 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 2: to allow the which would functionally allow the prosecution to 215 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 2: move forward. 216 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: But Alito and Thomas seem like such partisan hacks, and 217 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: also Gorsage and also Kavanaugh. Do you really think they 218 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: would do something like not help out their guy. 219 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 2: I've been wrong a bunch before, I'll probably be wrong again, 220 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 2: But I do think that's probably a bridge too far. 221 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 2: Like these justices had the opportunity to get involved in 222 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election if they so wanted, and that 223 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 2: was not a fight they're willing to do. The reason 224 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 2: control of the Supreme Court is so important for the 225 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 2: Republican Party and the conservative legal movement is the legal 226 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 2: system has sort of this unearned veneer of legitimacy. 227 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,319 Speaker 1: So they would compromise that. 228 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 2: That's right. They have a lot more to gain by 229 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 2: not giving Donald Trump everything he wants here in future cases, 230 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 2: in future issues that are much bigger than any one 231 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 2: person's political career, any one person's presidential aspirations. This is 232 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 2: one where they can save a bunch of political capital, 233 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 2: burnish the court's reputation, and fight another day, fight a 234 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 2: lot more days. 235 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:26,959 Speaker 1: Jesus so interesting. Also, we're all going to die. Thank 236 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: you for joining us, Thank you. 237 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 2: For having me. Let's save the Taylor Swift conversation for 238 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 2: next time. I look forward to it. 239 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: Did you know Rick Wilson and I are bringing together 240 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: some friends for a general election kickoff party at City 241 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: Winery in New York on March sixth. We're going to 242 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 1: be chatting right after Super Tuesday about what's going on, 243 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: and it is going to probably be the one fun 244 00:13:55,280 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: night for the next eighty days. If you're in the 245 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: New York area, please come by and join us. You 246 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: can go to City Winery's website and grab a ticket. 247 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: Rachel Bade is a senior Washington correspondent of Politico and 248 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 1: author of Unchecked Welcome Back, Too Fast Politics. Rachel Bade, 249 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: thank you, Mollie. 250 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 4: I've missed you. 251 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 3: Glad to be back. 252 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: I missed you, and I'm excited to have you back 253 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: because I think of you as someone I mean, first 254 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: of all, Congress Historically it can be a slightly sleepy beat. 255 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: Sometimes what is happening right now doesn't it feel unprecedented? Yeah? 256 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 3: Absolutely, the chaos is. It's definitely ranting supreme. I can 257 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 3: tell you that going into this year. My being thought 258 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 3: was like, Okay, the Hill's going to be quiet, the 259 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 3: campaign triot is going to be interesting. 260 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 4: I'm going to ignore Congress for a while. 261 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 3: No, I keep getting dragged back to my old stomping grounds, 262 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 3: the House of Representatives, because I mean, the Republicans right 263 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 3: now are just you know, eating each other alive. And 264 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 3: the thing that's most shocking to me in recent weeks 265 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 3: is the level of hypocrisy that we are seeing from 266 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 3: the GOP right now. I mean, in a cosey, it's Washington, 267 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 3: They're all I mean, this is we become cynical as reporters. 268 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's important just just couches. You 269 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: are not a partisan, absolutely not it. You come from Congress, 270 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: you work at politicos, so you're really here to just 271 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: say what you're seeing. But what you're seeing ishpocrasy. 272 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, I've covered the Hill for over a decade, 273 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 3: especially Republicans have a lot of great relationships with them, 274 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 3: and they will tell you some even on. 275 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 4: The record, that the level of hipocrasy or here. 276 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 3: Is just uncanny. I mean, I'm thinking first of all 277 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 3: about what happened with the border deal recently, so. 278 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: Talk us through that just for the people who are 279 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: not completely right in. 280 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 3: The White House obviously wants to send more money to Ukraine. 281 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 3: They've been asking about this for months now, and Speaker 282 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 3: Mike Johnson initially put up a requirement that, Okay, if 283 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 3: we're going to fund Ukraine, first we have to deal 284 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 3: with our defense here at home. We need to crack 285 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 3: down on the border. So this was a Speaker johnson 286 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 3: initial push right after he became Speaker, and he basically said, look, 287 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 3: I want to buy partisan border deal. It takes four months. 288 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: Lawmakers go into this rabbit hole in the Senate and 289 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 3: they come out and they have a bill that gives 290 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 3: Republicans a whole bunch of conservative policy wins. 291 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 4: Democrats get very little in terms of immigration. 292 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: It's not so far from HB two, right. 293 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 3: So HR two, which is the House version, just the 294 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 3: House version of like a border crack down. It definitely 295 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 3: goes further. But these are not policy changes that Democrats 296 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 3: would want for free. It's like pulling their teeth here, 297 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 3: and it's all because they want Ukraine money, right, like 298 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 3: increasing Sanders or asylum, giving new authority to expel migrants, 299 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 3: basically ending what Republicans call catch and release, you know, 300 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 3: making it easier to detain people and not release them 301 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 3: but actually keep them in house while they're waiting for 302 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 3: their asylum cases. Anyway, a lot of conservative policy wins, 303 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 3: and Johnson blows it up, says no because Donald Trump 304 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 3: pressures him not to give Joe Biden a win on 305 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 3: the border, which is clearly one of his biggest political 306 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 3: problems right now. A lot of people do not like 307 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 3: how Biden's handling the border issue, and Johnson follows suit. 308 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 3: And then after the Senate just a few days ago, 309 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 3: passes this Ukraine assistance package without the border. Since Johnson 310 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 3: said no to what he originally. 311 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 4: Requested, they send it to the House and. 312 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 3: Guess what the speaker says now, he says it doesn't 313 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 3: address the border, so we can't accept it. 314 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 4: It's just like, oh my. 315 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: Gosh, right, it's not a great look to say the 316 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 1: thing you gave me I don't want. And also I 317 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: won't help you unless you give me the thing which 318 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: I just rejected. 319 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, and like, look, I know we always talk about 320 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 3: how during a presidential election year, like I wish we 321 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 3: were talking about at the beginning, Usually it goes dark. 322 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 3: Not a lot gets done. All the votes are usually 323 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 3: like very sort of posturing votes. Messaging, yeah, messaging, but like, 324 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 3: you know, there's a real need on the border right now. 325 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 4: It's a top concern for voters. 326 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 3: And you know, you had people like me McConnell in 327 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 3: the Senate who were really championing and cheerleading this for 328 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 3: a long time until they saw the writing on the 329 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 3: wall and then they backtracked. It was just a stunning, 330 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 3: sort of embarrassing thing on Capitol Hill recently. I will 331 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 3: also say that, you know, Speaker Mike Johnson, a lot 332 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 3: of House Republicans were excited about his ascension. Now, a 333 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 3: lot of them, and I just wrote about this in 334 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 3: Playbook a few days ago, a lot of them are 335 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 3: pining for Kevin McCarthy again. And that is saying something 336 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 3: people like Thomas Messy, who is a conservative libertarian esque 337 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,479 Speaker 3: member from Kentucky. He has long been a top critic 338 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 3: of Kevin McCarthy, never been a good fan of him. 339 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 3: He said that after Republicans tried and failed to impeach 340 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 3: may Orcists just a few days ago, and it's sort 341 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 3: of an embarrassing display. He was like, you know, getting 342 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,479 Speaker 3: rid of McCarthy was a huge mistake, and people are 343 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 3: starting to say that Republicans are saying that a lot 344 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 3: behind the scenes right now. 345 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 1: Not a great look for mad Gates, who was the 346 00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: driving force behind getting rid of McCarthy. 347 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, that's actually a really interesting point. 348 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 3: I should probably find him on the hill and catch 349 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 3: up little Buyer's remorse. I'm sure he will never admit it, right, 350 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 3: I mean, I think this is like Gates's crowning achievement 351 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 3: that he got rid of somebody he completely despised. But look, 352 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 3: it's showing that maybe the issue wasn't McCarthy so much 353 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 3: as the fact that they have a slim majority in 354 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 3: Republicans larger so divided right now between like the Magawine 355 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 3: of the party and the more traditional Republicans. Obviously the 356 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 3: Magawine is winging out hardcore right now, and that's a 357 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 3: problem when you know, the functions of Congress is to 358 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 3: govern and pass legislation and compromises needed, and that is 359 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 3: very out of fashion right now. 360 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: It's one of the things that I think makes your 361 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: point really well is that they lost a sixth procedural 362 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: vote on salt. I know Jesse loves to talk about 363 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 1: but it's a sort of like the state and local adoption. 364 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: Republicans from New York, and I think, quite smartly, believe 365 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: that if there's any chance of them keeping their seats, 366 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 1: they need to try to pass this solid deduction. Can 367 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: you talk us through what's happening there? 368 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, So these are a lot of Republicans in 369 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 3: New York and Biden districts. They're worried about their. 370 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 1: Seats in California too, right. 371 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, California too, absolutely, and a lot of their constituents 372 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 3: high cost areas. Right, they want to be able to 373 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 3: take the state and local tax deduction. They want the 374 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 3: sort of cap on that to be higher. So basically 375 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 3: a bigger tax break for the fact that they're paying 376 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 3: all these other state and local taxes at a much bigger 377 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 3: rate than the rest of the country is. The centrist 378 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 3: Republicans were pushing Johnson to allow vote on this. He 379 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 3: said he would allow it, but it didn't even come 380 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 3: to a full vote because before you have the vote 381 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 3: on the legislation, you have what's called a rule in 382 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 3: the House of Representatives. It's basically just governing the debate 383 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 3: for them considering this bill, and usually it's up to 384 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 3: the majority. To carry a rule two passage, they need 385 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 3: to get a majority of the House. Usually it's the 386 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 3: majority of Republicans are the ones who are supposed to 387 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 3: carry this. Instead, eighteen Republicans voted against it. All Democrats 388 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 3: voted against it. The rule went down and it. 389 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,159 Speaker 4: Never got considered. And the thing to know about this 390 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 4: is it's it's the sixth time this has. 391 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 3: Happened since Johnson began Speaker, and that is more than 392 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 3: I believe something in like half a century, Congress has 393 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 3: not seen a rule go down or fail on the 394 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 3: floor this often, and more than half a century. And 395 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 3: I will also note former Speaker Nancy Pelousi never lost 396 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,959 Speaker 3: a single vote on the House floor. Johnson has lost 397 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 3: more than a half a dozen, including an effort to 398 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 3: try to impeach the DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorchis and try 399 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 3: to fund Ukraine to Israel, which is a largely bipartisan 400 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 3: issue on Capitol Hill, but the way he did it 401 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 3: pissed a lot of people off and it went down. 402 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: He like did this sort of weird hell Mary pass 403 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: where he's like, we're going to do Israel funding with 404 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: no offsets, which would mean just like more money more 405 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: foreign a. Politically, there's a lot of popularity for it, 406 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 1: and it died too, and the Israel people were like, 407 00:21:58,119 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 1: don't do it this way. 408 00:21:59,400 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 4: Yeah. 409 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 3: So initially he had put this money up for a 410 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 3: vote months ago, but with these controversial offsets, basically targeted 411 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 3: a bunch of democratic priorities to cut spending there and 412 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 3: move that money to fund this new assistance for Israel. 413 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 3: That pissed off a lot of Dems. They said, no, 414 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 3: this isn't easy out. Now he sort of moved forward 415 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 3: getting rid of those offsets, just doing what they call 416 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 3: a clean bill that doesn't include sort of these partisan 417 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 3: policy winds. But it came right after Johnson killed the 418 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 3: border bill. And what's important to know about this is 419 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 3: that the White House has been asking for a national 420 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 3: security package that includes money for Israel, money for Ukraine, 421 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 3: and money for Taiwan. They want to keep them all 422 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,640 Speaker 3: together because the belief is that the medicine goes down 423 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 3: with a little sugar, right, So you know, people who 424 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 3: don't want to vote for Ukraine, maybe they vote for 425 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 3: this package because they do want to support Israel. Johnson 426 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 3: sort of carved that up, took Israel out, and tried 427 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 3: to pass it what is known as under suspension of 428 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 3: the rules of the House. This means it requires two 429 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 3: thirds of a majority to actually pass, not just a 430 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 3: simple majority. So a lot of Republicans and Democrats needed. 431 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 3: A lot of Democrats or pissed that he was trying 432 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,919 Speaker 3: to curve off this money just on Israel instead of 433 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 3: also addressing Ukraine. And then he had also flip flopped 434 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 3: on this notion of offsetting this funding, so a lot 435 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 3: of Conservatives who wanted to see this money paid for 436 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 3: were pissed at him too. So it's just the thing 437 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 3: I keep hearing over and over about him by Republicans 438 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 3: in the House is that he's all over the place. 439 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 3: He's flying by the seat of his pants. 440 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 4: With McCarthy, they said, at least he had a strategy. 441 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 3: Not everybody liked it, and a lot of people accused 442 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 3: him of lying all the time, which was a big 443 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 3: problem for him. But he had a strategy, he pitched 444 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 3: it to his members, and oftentimes he stuck to it. 445 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 3: With Johnson, it seems like his mind is changing depending 446 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 3: on you know, the week, and you know he's doing 447 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 3: one thing with Israel, then he backtracks a couple weeks later, 448 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 3: his members get mad. He's telling members that he does 449 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,879 Speaker 3: support helping Ukraine, but then refuses to put Ukraine money 450 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 3: on the House floor because of the threat from the 451 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 3: magawing and some of his members like Marjorie Taylor Green 452 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 3: saying they will oust him a speaker if he allows 453 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 3: such a vote. So he's all over the place and 454 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 3: that's really angering a lot of people, whether they're Conservatives, 455 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 3: modern Republicans, Hawks, or even doves in the House right now, 456 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 3: and it's not a good place for him. 457 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: I want to ask you about retirements because one of 458 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: the things that we're seeing Republicans in the House and 459 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 1: Democrats do, but the Republican ones have gotten a lot 460 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 1: of attention. Mark Green, who's the Chair of Homeland Security, 461 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 1: is leaving after only six years. And these are like 462 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 1: young Gish people for Congress anyway, young I just was 463 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:40,719 Speaker 1: hoping you could talk about that. 464 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, Mark Green still has a brown hair, so yes, 465 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 3: that's not that's not the majority in Congress. It's a 466 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 3: huge deal Chairman leaving, and what it says is that 467 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 3: Republicans are not confident about keeping the House number one. Well, 468 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 3: obviously the majority is very slim right now. When is 469 00:24:58,520 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 3: it like a three C. 470 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:03,159 Speaker 1: Wait, I found the people are resigning, So with Kay Granger, 471 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: who voted to Keith McCarthy, Ken Buck, who's been actually 472 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 1: very vocal about the majorcist stuff, Blake luke Meyer. Right, 473 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: but these are all sort of twenty ten. I mean 474 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: Greg Pence, we knew, Mike Bence's brother. I mean, if 475 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 1: you look at the numbers, and then Kevin leaves, Kathy 476 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: McMorris Rogers, Mike Gallagher, they're sort of young ish and 477 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: sort of ambitious and leaving right. 478 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I mean CMR Kathy mc morris Rodgers once 479 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 3: in Republican leadership herself. Yeah, I mean, she's got a 480 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 3: powerful committee position that she's wanted for a long time. 481 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 3: Gallagher has very much been seen as sort of an 482 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 3: up and comer. He's super young. I don't think he's 483 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 3: gonna be like in his what lordies, No, not even 484 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 3: I think he's like in his thirties, actually maybe forties. 485 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 3: He yeah, the case closer to my age, but I 486 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,119 Speaker 3: could be totally warm about that. But again, he has 487 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 3: brown hair, which is not the norm in Congress. But 488 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 3: two things that this says. Number one is thirty ninety nine. 489 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 1: Wow. 490 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 4: Okay, he's older than me, I'm just saying, but still 491 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,800 Speaker 4: very young. It says two things. 492 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 3: It says that people are number one, there they're pissed 493 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 3: about Congress not working anymore, and like, you know, Republicans 494 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 3: are in the majority, and you don't hear a lot 495 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,359 Speaker 3: of them talk about this on the record, but basically 496 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 3: every one of them will admit this to you, either 497 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,640 Speaker 3: on background or you know, in a private conversation, that 498 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 3: they're a shit show right now. They don't know what 499 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 3: they're doing, and the party's all over the place, and 500 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 3: they think it's going to get worse because Donald Trump 501 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,440 Speaker 3: is going to be the nominee and there's a big 502 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 3: fear of him also pulling down Republicans. But like, if 503 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 3: you come to Congress, actually pass legislation, get things done, 504 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 3: and like you have Republicans openly admitting that they're not 505 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 3: putting a solution on the floor because Donald Trump wants 506 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 3: to keep that problem to run on in twenty twenty 507 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 3: four read the border specifically. That's frustrating to a lot 508 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 3: of members. And so you know, people are sort of 509 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 3: looking at the ready on the wall. They think they're 510 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,679 Speaker 3: probably not going to be in the majority again in 511 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five. And look, they're just saying this is 512 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 3: they're looking at their time and saying that they'd rather 513 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 3: be doing other things. 514 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 4: So it's pretty telling. 515 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, talk me through Maorca's this impeachment now starts. It 516 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: means that the Senate can't do anything right. 517 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, No, the Senate they can if they want, but 518 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 3: they have to do this trial. 519 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:25,120 Speaker 1: Right. 520 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,239 Speaker 3: That's actually been something that I've been doing some reporting on. 521 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 3: There's a number of ways Democrats can try to get 522 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 3: out of the trial, and there are conversations happening right 523 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,720 Speaker 3: now in the White House and also among Senate Democrats 524 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 3: about how quickly can they make this go away. There 525 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 3: is definitely a feeling amongst Democrats, and by the way, 526 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,440 Speaker 3: a lot of Republicans in the Senate, in the sort 527 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 3: of legal constitutional scholar braining act community too, that sort 528 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 3: of leans to the right, that this impeachment was not merited. 529 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 3: It was not high crimes into misdemeanors. The Founders talked 530 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 3: about whether they should allow impeachment to be done for 531 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 3: policy issues, and the Founders completely rejected that debate and 532 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 3: decided that no, they didn't want that yet. That's exactly 533 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,640 Speaker 3: what the House did, so there's a feeling amongst Democrats 534 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,640 Speaker 3: that they want to get rid of this. There's talk 535 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 3: right now about doing what's called emotion to dismiss, basically 536 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,360 Speaker 3: after the articles come over to the Senate, which will 537 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 3: happen next week. It's going to happen right after the 538 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 3: Senate comes back from their President's Day recess. They can 539 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 3: basically vote right away to try to get rid of 540 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 3: the articles dismiss. They can also allow for opening statements. 541 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 3: But by the way, if they do that, that means 542 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 3: Marjorie Taylor Green is going to be presenting on the 543 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 3: Senate floor talking about Biden and the border. 544 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,959 Speaker 1: That was my next question. Tell us who these impeachment 545 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,960 Speaker 1: managers are, because this is amazing. 546 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 4: The one that obviously stuck out to me was Marjorie 547 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 4: Taylor Green. 548 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 3: And this is not someone that the White House is 549 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 3: going to be wanting to give a huge microphone too. 550 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 4: So again, this is why Democrats are looking to end. 551 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: This or maybe they should. 552 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 3: Well that's actually a good point because I did have 553 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 3: that thought too. But also she could say a lot 554 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 3: of things that are not exactly true. During a trial, 555 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 3: you can't just rebut her, right, the managers present, and 556 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 3: then the defense presents. You can't interrupt and say objection, 557 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 3: this is not true, So it's basically giving her like 558 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 3: a free rate to say what she wants. They can 559 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 3: just dismiss it at the front. They can do opening 560 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 3: arguments and then dismiss it. And then the thing that 561 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 3: a lot of people are talking about right now is 562 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 3: actually referring these impeachment articles to a committee. This has 563 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 3: been done with non presdential impeachments in the past, things 564 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 3: like judicial impeachments, where they basically send it to a committee, 565 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 3: the committee investigates it and then recommends that the full 566 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 3: Senate vote up or down. In the Senate votes up 567 00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 3: or down. So the problem with this though is even 568 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 3: if it goes to a committee, we could see hearings 569 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 3: on this matter. And again I think the White House 570 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 3: wants this to go away asap. It'll be interesting to 571 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 3: see what they do, but definitely don't expect like a 572 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 3: long drawn out process. 573 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 1: So so interesting making Marjorie Taylor Green an impeachment manager. 574 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: The theory of the case here with Republicans, I think 575 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 1: is that the base loves Marjorie Taylor Green and the 576 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: rest of us or the sort of persuadable voter, of 577 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: which you know there are fewer and fewer that they 578 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 1: will grow to love her. But if you're trying to 579 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: keep the House, is this a brilliant play? 580 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 4: Absolutely not, I would say there are. 581 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 3: I know from conversations with Republicans on the Hill a 582 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 3: lot of them know that she is a loose cannon 583 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 3: and that it will very much blow back on them politically. 584 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 3: The reason she is in this position is because of 585 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 3: the power she wields in the House. I can tell 586 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 3: you you know, when they were doing these Biden and 587 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 3: impeachment hearings a while ago, just to give you some 588 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 3: insight into this, there was a debate about whether the 589 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 3: achiachment should be going through the House Oversight Committee or 590 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 3: the House Judiciary Committee. There was a couple hearings in 591 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 3: the House Oversight Committee that were frankly embarrassing or Republicans 592 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 3: where their own witnesses said that what Biden had done 593 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 3: or these allegations of gets Biden again were not. 594 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: Liberal turally right, yes, yes, exactly not so liberal, but 595 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: definitely very conservative. 596 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 4: And so there was talk about, Okay, Oversight. 597 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 3: Doesn't know what they're doing. Jim Jordan is the chair 598 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 3: of the Judiciary Committee. Let's just move this over to Jordan. 599 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 3: A lot of Republicans were telling me they wanted to 600 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 3: do this. The answer, however, was no, because of one 601 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 3: main reason. Marjorie Taylor Green is on oversight and she 602 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 3: wants this and if we take it from her, she 603 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 3: will get pissed, and nobody wanted to piss her off 604 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,479 Speaker 3: in leadership. So the reason she is getting this position 605 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 3: is not because Republicans think she's a great messenger. They 606 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 3: know she's a very flawed one. The reason she's getting 607 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 3: it is because they're trying to praase her. And if 608 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,720 Speaker 3: they don't give her this position when she's been lobbing 609 00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 3: for it considerably behind the scenes, then they're going to 610 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 3: be in trouble. And that again, it's not a place 611 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 3: that these chairmen or Republican leaders be in right now. 612 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 1: So it's yet another Republicans being held hostage by their crazy. 613 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 3: By the bar right by the mataway, yes, and against 614 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,240 Speaker 3: what they know is their best interest in their own 615 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 3: political gut instincts. 616 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 1: So it's really interesting, really interesting. Thank you so much, Rachel. 617 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 3: Happy to be on while I get to see you. 618 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: Dan Nathan is a panelist on Fast Money as well 619 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: as the co host of the podcast on the tape 620 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: and Okay Computer. Welcome back to Fast Politics, Dan Nathan. 621 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,760 Speaker 5: Thanks for having me back, Molly. It's one of my 622 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 5: favorite podcasts. You know, I have a few of my own, 623 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 5: so therefore I have to put it in one of 624 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 5: my favorite but I love Fast Politics. 625 00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 1: Oh your best. So I'm very happy to have you here. 626 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: And first I want you to explain to us because 627 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: it's sort of an interesting week in the public markets, 628 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 1: not getting a ton of like non market related press. 629 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 1: It has not carried over into the news cycle, but 630 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,440 Speaker 1: a little bit interesting. Talk to this about what happened 631 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 1: on Monday and is sort of market volatility that followed. 632 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, so we had a situation where all eyes were 633 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 5: on this CPI report. This is an inflation reading that 634 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 5: a lot of market participants follow very closely, and you know, 635 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,560 Speaker 5: expectations have been and for the last year that a 636 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 5: lot of the effects of the Fed's monetary policy was 637 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 5: to bring down the level of inflation. We saw it 638 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 5: get as high as nine percent in twenty twenty two, 639 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 5: and therefore, you know they have this two percent target. 640 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 5: They've been speaking about it every time they have the 641 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 5: opportunity to do so. On the administration has been touting 642 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 5: the fact that inflation has come down dramatically from those 643 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 5: lofty levels in twenty twenty two. So we got a 644 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 5: reading for January inflation on Tuesday morning, and it was 645 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 5: a little hotter than expected. 646 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 1: Three point one for the year. 647 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 5: Correct three point one percent year over year, and so 648 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 5: a lot of I guess economists or strategists were expecting 649 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 5: possibly a two point something reading, right, getting closer to 650 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 5: their two percent target, which would give the Fed the 651 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 5: ability to then lower interest rates, right, And so that's 652 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 5: something that markets have been keying off. The stock market 653 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,760 Speaker 5: just made a new all time high with the S 654 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 5: and P five hundred at this nice round number of 655 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 5: five thousand. Well, there we were, we close there on Monday. 656 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 5: And on Tuesday, with that hotter than expected reading, which 657 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 5: is pushing out the Fed's ability to lower interest rates, 658 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 5: the stock market sold off pretty aggressively. It has since 659 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,920 Speaker 5: recovered over the last couple of days, but a lot 660 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 5: of economists, a lot of investors, a lot of strategists 661 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 5: are starting to price in the fact that maybe the 662 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 5: Fed will not be able to lower interest rates sooner 663 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,720 Speaker 5: than some had expected, which is something that buoy's stock 664 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,720 Speaker 5: market valuations, which is one of the main reasons why 665 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 5: the stock market from its October lows has rallied more 666 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:31,880 Speaker 5: than twenty percent. 667 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 1: Right, weill unpack that number for us, because it's actually 668 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. 669 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,400 Speaker 5: Right, Yeah, a lot of folks have been like arguing 670 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 5: for a very long time the way that that CPI 671 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 5: is calculated. You know, it just doesn't incorporate a lot 672 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,320 Speaker 5: of things that a lot of regular Americans feel, whether 673 00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 5: it be a hump and whether it be food, whether 674 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 5: it be auto insurance, whether it be certain services that 675 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 5: we all have to pay for, And so that reading 676 00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:00,680 Speaker 5: is a little funky, you know. It's also one of 677 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 5: these things where it seems like every sort of economic 678 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 5: reading that has the ability to kind of move the 679 00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,879 Speaker 5: stock market as it relates to what the Fed might 680 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 5: do with monetary policy, there's always some folks who just 681 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 5: want to tear them apart and say they're not actual 682 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 5: good readings. There's a lot of stuff in the employment 683 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 5: data that speaks to the same thing. And that's another thing. 684 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 5: You know, we can talk about inflation, but that January 685 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 5: employment report was really hot too. Write it's showing that 686 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 5: wage growth is really good at a time where unemployment 687 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 5: is that fifty year lows, basically all time lows. So 688 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 5: you can speak as much as you want about inflation 689 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 5: coming down, right, But you can also talk about a 690 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 5: very hot jobs market. You can talk about you know, 691 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,480 Speaker 5: upward pressure on wages. That is also a big input 692 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 5: as it relates to inflation, so you know, and then 693 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 5: you've got to go back to, Okay, well, if the 694 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,480 Speaker 5: employees are making more money year over year, right, and 695 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 5: if inflation is still higher than the Fed would like 696 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,239 Speaker 5: it to be, if that inflation rate is below the 697 00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 5: wage growth level, right, that should be good for consumers. 698 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 5: So there's all these sorts of ways that kind of 699 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,359 Speaker 5: parse this out. But the upshot of this week and 700 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 5: some of the data that we've seen unemployment over the 701 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 5: last week or two is that the economy is still 702 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 5: really strong. And as long as the economy is strong, 703 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 5: then the Fed doesn't really have much case to lower 704 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 5: interest rates. And that very high interest rate is the 705 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,240 Speaker 5: thing that could put the US economy into a recession, 706 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 5: and that's the thing that a lot of people are fearful, right. 707 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 1: So there's a circular logic here, and also even more 708 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 1: than that in those inflatiary numbers, wasn't the sort of 709 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,760 Speaker 1: the largest uptick in real estate? 710 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 5: Yeah? Right, So one of the things that you think 711 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 5: that with you know, interest rates going higher, mortgage rates 712 00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,000 Speaker 5: going higher, the ability to kind of for people to 713 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,160 Speaker 5: to kind of move it has been hindered. So you've 714 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 5: had this kind of really unnatural situation where you know, 715 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 5: like housing prices have stayed very high because people are 716 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,960 Speaker 5: not willing to move out of their very low mortgage rates. Right, 717 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:57,879 Speaker 5: So we've seen mortgage rates as high as they've been 718 00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,959 Speaker 5: in the last year or so in many decades or so, 719 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,600 Speaker 5: So you know, you have asset prices that are very high. 720 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 5: So you have housing, you have the stock market, you know, 721 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,320 Speaker 5: a whole host of other things. And so the Fed 722 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,000 Speaker 5: again what they're trying to do with these high interest 723 00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 5: rates is kind of tamp down demand. Right. They want 724 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,759 Speaker 5: the economy to cool a little bit because they don't 725 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 5: want inflation to become entrenched in the economy because then 726 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,480 Speaker 5: it's a situation where like in the seventies and Mally, 727 00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:27,360 Speaker 5: you and I you don't really remember you the idea 728 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,680 Speaker 5: of stagflation, right, where you have a low growth environment, 729 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:35,080 Speaker 5: but you have high prices and therefore it just that 730 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,080 Speaker 5: that's the sort of thing that would weigh on risk assets. 731 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,439 Speaker 5: So the FED is not ready to drop the mic 732 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,080 Speaker 5: and take a victory lap and say mission accomplished just yet. 733 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,680 Speaker 5: And that's the one thing, going back to your original question, 734 00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,280 Speaker 5: that cause volatility in the equity market, because on the 735 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,839 Speaker 5: CPI report, you saw interest rates move higher and you 736 00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:57,319 Speaker 5: saw stock market prices go lower, and that's the sort 737 00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,880 Speaker 5: of thing that if that were just kind of you know, 738 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 5: if investors were starting to think that, oh man, we 739 00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 5: are not going to get to that two percent in 740 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 5: a target, and the Fed's going to keep interest rates higher, 741 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 5: meaning more restrictive on the economy, then the longer that 742 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,120 Speaker 5: goes on, is that the greater the likelihood that we 743 00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 5: have to go into recession. And just so you know, 744 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,759 Speaker 5: as we're recording this today, two of the headlines that 745 00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 5: I saw is that the UK pushed into a recession 746 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 5: over the last quarter, and so did Japan. So we're 747 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,800 Speaker 5: starting to see this in some very large economies around 748 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:28,200 Speaker 5: the world. 749 00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:35,440 Speaker 1: Right, UK and Japan both countries that said no to immigration, 750 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:41,200 Speaker 1: thus having a tighter labor market, thus having more inflation, 751 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 1: US tipping into recession, not necessarily why they tipped into recession, 752 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,200 Speaker 1: but certainly Brexit is not helping. 753 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean this situation. I mean, we know that 754 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,000 Speaker 5: Japan has this massive demographic issue and it's been going 755 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,359 Speaker 5: on for a very long time. Their economy has been 756 00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 5: really stuck in the mud for a long time also, 757 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,239 Speaker 5: But when you think about the UK and obviously the 758 00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 5: break from the EU, you know, the EU is probably 759 00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,799 Speaker 5: the next shoe to drop, as you know, as it 760 00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,720 Speaker 5: relates to a recession. You know, the war in Ukraine 761 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,719 Speaker 5: has obviously been a bit of a headwind for the 762 00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 5: European economy and so you know, it brings us back 763 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,880 Speaker 5: to the US a little bit, and all the kind 764 00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,440 Speaker 5: of fiscal wrangling that we have about aid towards Ukraine. 765 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,080 Speaker 5: I mean, the situation in Ukraine was one of when 766 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:28,680 Speaker 5: Russia invaded, was one of the major issues that caused 767 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,040 Speaker 5: that inflationary spike. In twenty twenty two. We were just 768 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,120 Speaker 5: coming out of COVID, We're dealing with a lot of 769 00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,319 Speaker 5: the supply chain disruptions. A lot of that came from 770 00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 5: you know, China and the like. But then all of 771 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 5: a sudden, we saw it with energy. We saw it 772 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,000 Speaker 5: with grain, and so this is one of the reasons 773 00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,319 Speaker 5: why I just don't get the Republican stance towards aid 774 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,719 Speaker 5: to Ukraine if you think about just the potential bottlenecks 775 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 5: that it has with the global economy. The other aspect 776 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,200 Speaker 5: that I just mentioned is obviously an expanded war in the 777 00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,080 Speaker 5: Middle East, and we already know what's happened to shipping 778 00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,239 Speaker 5: routes in the Red Sea right causing the US and 779 00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,279 Speaker 5: the UK the bomb you know, the Hooti rebels who 780 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 5: are causing a lot of disruptions there. You know, that 781 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,319 Speaker 5: is inflationary. And then throw into the fact that on 782 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,120 Speaker 5: the flip side of this, we have further you know, 783 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,640 Speaker 5: wrangling about you know, trade situations with China which are 784 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,880 Speaker 5: obviously inflationary at a time where the Chinese economy is 785 00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,239 Speaker 5: actually in the opposite situation, it is deflationary. And you 786 00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,880 Speaker 5: could make the argument, while we have inflation in the 787 00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:27,400 Speaker 5: developed world, you know, a deflationary economy in China because 788 00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 5: so much of the world relies on China rights as 789 00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,200 Speaker 5: a as a place to you know, kind of do 790 00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:36,480 Speaker 5: business with them. That's a really, really bad situation in 791 00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,280 Speaker 5: my opinion, so not being priced into the stock market 792 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,400 Speaker 5: here in the US at all time highs in my opinion. 793 00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, those hooty rebels, God forbid you disrupt shipping lines. 794 00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,760 Speaker 1: America is not going to tolerate that. I'm not taking 795 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,279 Speaker 1: the side of the hoosy rebels. I mean, whatever is 796 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:52,120 Speaker 1: going on there is. 797 00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:53,920 Speaker 5: Not a good stance. But you know, one of the 798 00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,399 Speaker 5: things that I am routinely, you know, as I sit 799 00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,799 Speaker 5: on the desk at Best Money on CNBC and the 800 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,759 Speaker 5: podcast that we do in the life, there's a little 801 00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:02,880 Speaker 5: bit of a conundrum playing out here right now because 802 00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,520 Speaker 5: when I think about the stock market at all time highs, 803 00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:08,160 Speaker 5: I think about consumer confidence at pretty decent levels. I 804 00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,800 Speaker 5: think home prices where they are, right, I see, you know, households. 805 00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,040 Speaker 5: You know, we're starting to see the savings rate tick 806 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:17,440 Speaker 5: down a little bit, consumer credit tick up considerably, but 807 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,200 Speaker 5: consumer confidence is pretty high. We have, again, we have 808 00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,960 Speaker 5: decent waves growth above four percent year every year. We 809 00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:27,200 Speaker 5: have unemployment below four percent at all time highs. We 810 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,799 Speaker 5: see you know, inflation, while this is a measure of 811 00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:31,920 Speaker 5: year over year, so at three point one percent, it's 812 00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,280 Speaker 5: still high, right, that's a cumulative sort of level here 813 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,680 Speaker 5: things seem okay for the economy. We avoided a recession 814 00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,280 Speaker 5: that the stock market in twenty twenty two was pricing 815 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,840 Speaker 5: in in twenty twenty three. The thing that I can't 816 00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:48,360 Speaker 5: figure out is that why registered voters, right and even 817 00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:53,000 Speaker 5: Democrats feel so pessimistic about the economy in this election year. 818 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:54,920 Speaker 5: And it's one of the things that I'm going to 819 00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,080 Speaker 5: be you know, I'm going to be really trying to 820 00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,680 Speaker 5: figure out for most of this year because we see 821 00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 5: how the Biden administration, how poorly they rank when it 822 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 5: comes to the economy. And given everything that we know 823 00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:09,560 Speaker 5: about Donald Trump and the chaos that he causes with 824 00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:11,640 Speaker 5: just the kind of world order, the comments that he 825 00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,240 Speaker 5: made about NATO, that should be one of the scariest things. 826 00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,719 Speaker 5: If you are a US multinational company and you do 827 00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,719 Speaker 5: a lot of business in Europe, you do a lot 828 00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,480 Speaker 5: of business in Asia, you do a lot of business 829 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,000 Speaker 5: in the Middle East. What he has to say about 830 00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,400 Speaker 5: NATO is massively disruptive, in my opinion, and you should 831 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,319 Speaker 5: be scared shitless about that, right, And so nothing is 832 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,440 Speaker 5: being priced into that now. I don't want to talk 833 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,920 Speaker 5: about Donald Trump every day like we had to in 834 00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,680 Speaker 5: twenty sixteen or like we had to in twenty twenty, 835 00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,799 Speaker 5: at least from my standpoint as a market show. But 836 00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:44,319 Speaker 5: I feel like the markets are really underestimating this sort 837 00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,480 Speaker 5: of thing. And at some point the Biden administration has 838 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,239 Speaker 5: to start leading with their successes that they've had on 839 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,040 Speaker 5: the economic front. Right, at some point it has to 840 00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:54,239 Speaker 5: kind of plow through to the voter. 841 00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,799 Speaker 1: I'm going to blow your mind here when I tell 842 00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:02,600 Speaker 1: you that. In fact, Joe Biden and even in Axios yesterday, 843 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,719 Speaker 1: Axios in a piece about how the Inflation Reduction Act is 844 00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:11,520 Speaker 1: actually creating these mini booms in states that have not 845 00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,080 Speaker 1: had any investment. I mean, I agree, and I think 846 00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,440 Speaker 1: they have to take it to the road. But I 847 00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,520 Speaker 1: just want to point out that the road. For example, 848 00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:23,040 Speaker 1: I was with a bunch of smart people and they 849 00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,439 Speaker 1: were like, why doesn't Biden go out there. He's out 850 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,680 Speaker 1: there literally every day giving speeches. They are not being 851 00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:34,000 Speaker 1: covered because people find it boring unless he gaffs. So 852 00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:35,920 Speaker 1: you do see, I mean, I have seen and the 853 00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:38,879 Speaker 1: I mean these guys you kind of get them too. 854 00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,840 Speaker 1: I mean, you cannot get them to shut up about chips. 855 00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:45,320 Speaker 5: Well, they need better surrogates. I mean, like it's really simple. 856 00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,400 Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know if you watched John Stewart's 857 00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,560 Speaker 5: return to the Daily Show the other night, it was 858 00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,880 Speaker 5: a pretty brilliant piece where he came out on that 859 00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,359 Speaker 5: Thursday night press or he was unhappy with you know, 860 00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,359 Speaker 5: like the you know, the categorization of him as a 861 00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,959 Speaker 5: well meeting elderly man with a bad memory and John 862 00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,399 Speaker 5: Stewart's bit. And I'm so glad he's back. I really 863 00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,160 Speaker 5: missed him. I actually honestly think that if he and 864 00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,840 Speaker 5: Colbert had not gone off Comedy Central in twenty sixteen 865 00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,120 Speaker 5: before the election, I think that Hillary would have won. 866 00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:15,280 Speaker 5: I'm not blaming them. I go, like, kudos to those guys, 867 00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,799 Speaker 5: but I'm glad he's back. But the point there is that, 868 00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,960 Speaker 5: like he had the opportunity to come out, be force full, 869 00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,759 Speaker 5: stick to the message, be combative with some of these 870 00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,640 Speaker 5: fox a holes, and then he just couldn't let it 871 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,160 Speaker 5: be and he had to come back and remind everybody 872 00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:34,520 Speaker 5: that he literally in twenty twenty campaigned from his basement 873 00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,840 Speaker 5: in Delaware. He will not be able to kind of 874 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,560 Speaker 5: deliver the message on his own. Kamala Harris will not 875 00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,040 Speaker 5: be able to deliver the message on the areas that 876 00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,400 Speaker 5: they need to be strong on, whether it be the economy, 877 00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,279 Speaker 5: whether it be you know, his legislative agenda that was 878 00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:51,399 Speaker 5: very successful in the first term. So I don't know, man, 879 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:53,959 Speaker 5: I think we're kind of like whatever the bad def 880 00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,719 Speaker 5: con is, you know what I mean, I don't know 881 00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,640 Speaker 5: one or five, but we're getting close to that one. 882 00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:02,000 Speaker 5: And when folks, you know, John Stewart and his return 883 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 5: to the Daily Show, you know, put a very fine 884 00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,839 Speaker 5: point on it. We know who that audience is, and 885 00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:09,680 Speaker 5: we know the sort of messaging they have. They need 886 00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,960 Speaker 5: better sarrogates, that's how they get covered. 887 00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:14,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, if we're going to open the door. And does 888 00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:17,400 Speaker 1: John Stuart make a great point by making fun of 889 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,600 Speaker 1: Biden for his age? I mean, okay, I mean I 890 00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,000 Speaker 1: don't know. I've watched a lot of Biden's speech shoes 891 00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,840 Speaker 1: And is the man a gifted orator he gifts a 892 00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,040 Speaker 1: good speech? No, he never was. 893 00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:30,920 Speaker 5: You know, let me tell you something. I'm going to 894 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,320 Speaker 5: point you to a podcast that my friend Wilfred Frost 895 00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,480 Speaker 5: did that his father did with Joe Biden in nineteen 896 00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,839 Speaker 5: eighty eight, and it's in the podcast stores. It's called 897 00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,279 Speaker 5: the I Think it's called the Frost Files. And this 898 00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,799 Speaker 5: was a never before released interview of Joe Biden when 899 00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,600 Speaker 5: he was running for president the first time in nineteen 900 00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,239 Speaker 5: eighty eight. And go listen to this. He sounded like 901 00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,759 Speaker 5: an absolute fighter and a rock star. And I get 902 00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,120 Speaker 5: it, it was a long time ago, but you know what's crazy. 903 00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:57,640 Speaker 5: As I was listening to this interview, Okay, this was 904 00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,880 Speaker 5: David Frost and Joe Biden, it sounded like Gavin Newsom 905 00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,800 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty four. And that's the sort of fighters 906 00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:05,799 Speaker 5: that we need out there, you know what I mean, 907 00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:09,520 Speaker 5: like kind of like making the case against Trump right now, 908 00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:13,600 Speaker 5: against against Maga politics, against you know, like isolation is 909 00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,480 Speaker 5: sort of stuff that that couldn't be worse for our 910 00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,720 Speaker 5: country's future as we think about this kind of rhetoric, 911 00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,880 Speaker 5: as they know, and the economy, if the economy is 912 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:23,960 Speaker 5: doing well, then they need to make a better case 913 00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,799 Speaker 5: for it. If Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are not 914 00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,080 Speaker 5: the people to do it, certainly Janet Yellen's not the 915 00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,400 Speaker 5: person to do it, then they need to find those people, 916 00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,200 Speaker 5: and they need to find them fast. Because I'll tell 917 00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:33,960 Speaker 5: you this, Molly right now, and you get me a 918 00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:37,160 Speaker 5: little fired up here, okay. Is that the economy's okay 919 00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:40,800 Speaker 5: right now? Okay, So if we think to November fifth, Okay, 920 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,200 Speaker 5: if we think about that date, they'll likely and if 921 00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,680 Speaker 5: we want to look at the probabilities, okay, whether the 922 00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:48,799 Speaker 5: economy is much better than it is right now or 923 00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 5: much worse, Okay, I'm kind of leaning towards much worse 924 00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,560 Speaker 5: as we get longer into this year, okay, And that 925 00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,400 Speaker 5: will be an absolute disaster. And it also brings me 926 00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,080 Speaker 5: back to twoth Zoan and eight and that election year 927 00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:07,240 Speaker 5: where the McCain thing was sunk because the economy fell apart, right, 928 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,120 Speaker 5: and obviously he was not doing a great job on 929 00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:12,080 Speaker 5: the campaign front and everything like that. But I get 930 00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:15,120 Speaker 5: really nervous about that. And so as bad as Biden 931 00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,479 Speaker 5: is polling right now in the economy, and the fact 932 00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,480 Speaker 5: that all this stuff as it relates to Trump, all 933 00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,360 Speaker 5: the stuff that's in the news, and all the gas 934 00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,279 Speaker 5: and all the nastiness and all the cruelty and all 935 00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,520 Speaker 5: the demronic sort of things that he says, that Joe 936 00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,200 Speaker 5: Biden is still pulling the way he is on the 937 00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:31,719 Speaker 5: economy in this environment. It's just crazy to me, and 938 00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:33,120 Speaker 5: I don't think it gets better from here. 939 00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,200 Speaker 1: So let's talk about the tight labor market for a minute. 940 00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:42,080 Speaker 1: Labor markets still tight. No immigration passed yet again, because 941 00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,480 Speaker 1: why legislate, I mean, what is the solve for that? 942 00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:49,920 Speaker 5: Well, the hard part here is that until they actually 943 00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,960 Speaker 5: get any credit for putting some policy in place, and 944 00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,719 Speaker 5: I know that they wanted to do this bipartisan deal 945 00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,480 Speaker 5: on the border, the border is the thing that's going 946 00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:00,480 Speaker 5: to actually get all that headline. 947 00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:04,440 Speaker 1: I mean, it'll get all the right wing headlines. 948 00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:06,600 Speaker 5: But it's crowding everything else out. And so when you 949 00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,040 Speaker 5: think about immigration, and you started talking about this as 950 00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,480 Speaker 5: it relates to unemployment, we're talking about that data, you 951 00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,960 Speaker 5: know what I mean, Like, look at the demographic problems 952 00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,640 Speaker 5: that a country like China has. They have over you know, 953 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,760 Speaker 5: one point two billion people some estimates, by twenty fifty, 954 00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,560 Speaker 5: they're going to have eight hundred billion people. They have 955 00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,520 Speaker 5: a huge problem. So, like the whole idea that China 956 00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,320 Speaker 5: is our big advisary right now over the next few decades, 957 00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,040 Speaker 5: that just might not be the case. But fixing our 958 00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:34,239 Speaker 5: border in a bipartisan way, in a humanitarian way, you 959 00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:35,840 Speaker 5: know what I mean, And then doing the sorts of 960 00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:39,239 Speaker 5: things that I think Democrats want to do the way 961 00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,319 Speaker 5: that they view immigration, and you know, for you know, 962 00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,040 Speaker 5: our economic well being, we can't do that until we 963 00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,040 Speaker 5: fix the border. And that's obviously another place right or 964 00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:52,760 Speaker 5: wrong that this administration and the party in general, they 965 00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:53,840 Speaker 5: rank very poorly on. 966 00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,680 Speaker 1: I'm going to blow your mind here, which is you 967 00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,480 Speaker 1: know that the Republicans blow up the border? 968 00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,920 Speaker 5: Do you know that? But like when you think about 969 00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:04,600 Speaker 5: who are the people that are going to dictate who 970 00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:08,360 Speaker 5: wins this election in November, it's from four or five states. 971 00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,080 Speaker 5: We know the states very well, okay, we know the 972 00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,920 Speaker 5: economic sensibilities of those states. Again, you and I on 973 00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,520 Speaker 5: Fast Politics or whatever, we have these sorts of conversations 974 00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,960 Speaker 5: among the people that we generally agree with. We can 975 00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,640 Speaker 5: talk about it until we're blue in the face. But 976 00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:24,560 Speaker 5: I'll tell you this, I'm gonna blow your mind. A 977 00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:27,319 Speaker 5: lot of very left leaning people that I speak to 978 00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,040 Speaker 5: who are in business or in Wall Street or or 979 00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:34,480 Speaker 5: related industries who actually vote against their economic best interests 980 00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,799 Speaker 5: for social reasons as it comes to democratic politics, are 981 00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,520 Speaker 5: really freaking worried right now. Okay, And I don't think 982 00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,600 Speaker 5: there's enough of that you know, trepidation in the public 983 00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,800 Speaker 5: scene right now among Democrats. I think it's a huge problem. 984 00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:48,960 Speaker 5: So we're all gonna sit here and make ourselves feel 985 00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:52,520 Speaker 5: better about like how we align on certain social issues, 986 00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,200 Speaker 5: how we align on geopolitical issues. But we're going to 987 00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,760 Speaker 5: lose this election. Okay, we're going to lose this election 988 00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,319 Speaker 5: if we really don't get our act together, become a 989 00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,800 Speaker 5: bit more vocal about some of these really important points 990 00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,880 Speaker 5: that I don't think between now and November they're going 991 00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,479 Speaker 5: to rank better on the economy. I don't think they're 992 00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,240 Speaker 5: going to rank better on the war in gozep between 993 00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,040 Speaker 5: now in November. And you can talk to about to 994 00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:16,120 Speaker 5: me about gun control, you can talk to me about 995 00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,400 Speaker 5: abortion and all those sorts of things that they have 996 00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,680 Speaker 5: won elections on over the last few cycles, and they're 997 00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:24,000 Speaker 5: not going to matter this time because these other ones 998 00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:25,800 Speaker 5: are going to be more important, and it's going to 999 00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,680 Speaker 5: be in my opinion, it's about messaging and it's about 1000 00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:29,720 Speaker 5: choosing the right fighters. 1001 00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,520 Speaker 1: So you're getting this off polls, well, you tell me. 1002 00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,439 Speaker 1: I mean, I just saw New York's third district where 1003 00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,479 Speaker 1: Democrats won by eight points. It was this sixteen points 1004 00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:41,640 Speaker 1: in Nassau County. It was a Republican seat. 1005 00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:43,360 Speaker 5: They never should have lost that seat. 1006 00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,359 Speaker 1: You can Monday Morning Gorter Rag And in fact, when 1007 00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,960 Speaker 1: you listen to the voter interviews, the voters were One 1008 00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:52,959 Speaker 1: of the things Swazi did, which I think is quite 1009 00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:56,080 Speaker 1: smart and Democrats need to do, is he said there 1010 00:50:56,160 --> 00:51:00,319 Speaker 1: was a border deal. The reason why you believe and 1011 00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,480 Speaker 1: a lot of New York people believe that migration even 1012 00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,760 Speaker 1: though it's down for the last two months, but okay, 1013 00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:10,239 Speaker 1: is because the Republican governor from Texas is busing migrants 1014 00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:14,000 Speaker 1: into New York City, and the New York Post, which 1015 00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:17,440 Speaker 1: is owned by Rupert Murdoch, who is a reactionary fascist 1016 00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,760 Speaker 1: and who would die for another Trump presidency, is running 1017 00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,400 Speaker 1: pictures of migrant crime all the time. So I go 1018 00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:26,560 Speaker 1: to my dermatologist and she says, what are they going 1019 00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,959 Speaker 1: to do about the migrants because we have a manufactured 1020 00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:34,200 Speaker 1: bomb here. Fine, okay, tight labor market. So I have 1021 00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:38,400 Speaker 1: complicated feelings about demonizing a group of people desperate for 1022 00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,800 Speaker 1: a better life, like our grandparents and great grandmars. But okay, 1023 00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:45,600 Speaker 1: but I'm just saying, if you look at what Swazi did, 1024 00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:49,000 Speaker 1: which was smart and is A really good template was 1025 00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:52,160 Speaker 1: he went to voters and he said, look, Democrats made 1026 00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,600 Speaker 1: all these compromises to get a border deal. Donald Trump 1027 00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,239 Speaker 1: told Speaker Mike Johnson not to take the deal. And 1028 00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,120 Speaker 1: there is no orderdale and so these people have no 1029 00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:04,839 Speaker 1: path to make money. There is no legal way for 1030 00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:08,760 Speaker 1: them to earn money. They cannot pay Social Security taxes, 1031 00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,600 Speaker 1: they cannot work, and so they live on the doll. 1032 00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:15,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, listen, iimus is sympathetic to all of that. Okay, 1033 00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:16,919 Speaker 5: Like I live in New York City, I see what's 1034 00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,120 Speaker 5: going on. I give to a whole host of things, 1035 00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:20,680 Speaker 5: you know what I mean, And I try to be 1036 00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:22,719 Speaker 5: extremely empathetic to all that. 1037 00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:25,239 Speaker 1: So you don't even need to be sympathetic. This is 1038 00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,480 Speaker 1: economic sense to have people work in the labor market. 1039 00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:30,200 Speaker 5: You and I are on the same page. But what 1040 00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:32,480 Speaker 5: I'm saying is is, like we have the potential to 1041 00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,040 Speaker 5: maybe win back the House, the potential to hold the Senate, 1042 00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,960 Speaker 5: right but like the strong potential or the probability right 1043 00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,480 Speaker 5: now is that we lose the White House, and we 1044 00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:42,839 Speaker 5: know what's going to happen. He didn't give a crap 1045 00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,640 Speaker 5: who owns what House or the Senate. Like things are 1046 00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:47,720 Speaker 5: going to get really nasty here. And so my point 1047 00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:51,040 Speaker 5: is really happy about this, you know, special election. He's 1048 00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,799 Speaker 5: going to have to run again in November, right like 1049 00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,800 Speaker 5: then we need more people voicing those sorts of messages 1050 00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,000 Speaker 5: in a way that that's kind of relating to the people. Listen. 1051 00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,920 Speaker 5: I live in New York City. I canceled the New 1052 00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:04,440 Speaker 5: York Post in twenty sixteen. You know, I read the 1053 00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:06,400 Speaker 5: Wall Street Journal. I don't read the page, but I 1054 00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:08,399 Speaker 5: read the New York Times. Read the same things that 1055 00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,239 Speaker 5: you do, right like every morning, and I don't read 1056 00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,200 Speaker 5: the ruper burdock crap. It is busting through you know 1057 00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:17,120 Speaker 5: what I mean? Oh yeah, Bubble, I agree with No. 1058 00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:19,680 Speaker 1: No, it's a good point. Thank you so much. I 1059 00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:21,759 Speaker 1: didn't mean to be combative. 1060 00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:23,640 Speaker 5: No, I love it. Let me tell you something. I'll 1061 00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:26,680 Speaker 5: leave you with this. Okay, if we on this side 1062 00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,400 Speaker 5: don't have these sorts of battles right now, we are 1063 00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:31,319 Speaker 5: literally going to be in for it, man. Because if 1064 00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,120 Speaker 5: you thought twenty seventeen, eighteen, nineteen twenty and into early 1065 00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:36,719 Speaker 5: twenty one were bad, just wait. 1066 00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,120 Speaker 1: No, and I agree. And the truth is like the 1067 00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,040 Speaker 1: road to Hillary Clinton losing was filled with a lot 1068 00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:43,040 Speaker 1: of smugness. 1069 00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,319 Speaker 5: Yeah. I talked to a lot of people like you, Molly, 1070 00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:47,920 Speaker 5: who have big voices in bullhorns and the like, and 1071 00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,400 Speaker 5: everybody has just coalesced around the fact that this is 1072 00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:53,759 Speaker 5: the team. It's Biden Harris and I get it. There's 1073 00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,000 Speaker 5: not this you know, you can't challenge them. You're never 1074 00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,200 Speaker 5: going to have a future in the Democratic Party. The 1075 00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:01,600 Speaker 5: DNC's rigged it. There's not you know, primary apparatus in place. 1076 00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:03,840 Speaker 5: But man, if this guy you know, trips over a 1077 00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,520 Speaker 5: podium like his, I guess Defense secretary and his immobilized, 1078 00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,279 Speaker 5: I mean, its lights out because Kamala Harris at the 1079 00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:12,479 Speaker 5: top of the ticket, that's not winning. And you tell 1080 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,600 Speaker 5: me how you get a you know, Gavin Newsom Witner 1081 00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:17,879 Speaker 5: ticket that dog hunts. I'm just telling you that Doug 1082 00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:20,840 Speaker 5: hunts right now. But listen, I'm going off here. But 1083 00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,359 Speaker 5: I think more people need to start to speak up 1084 00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,520 Speaker 5: and figure out what a plan be is because we're 1085 00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:28,240 Speaker 5: right about ready to be in a very difficult situation 1086 00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:31,359 Speaker 5: and not so distant future. Thank you, Dan, all right, 1087 00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:32,400 Speaker 5: MOLLI seea thanks. 1088 00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:39,280 Speaker 1: No moment Jesse Cannon Hi jug fast. 1089 00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:41,359 Speaker 5: There is a lot of exciting clips coming out of 1090 00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:43,680 Speaker 5: the Fanny Willis trial today, what'd you see here? 1091 00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:47,520 Speaker 1: I'm enraged about this trial. First of all, it's not 1092 00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,480 Speaker 1: a trial, it's a hearing. The Republicans are trying to 1093 00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:55,120 Speaker 1: get Fanny Willis. The Fulton County DA kicked off of 1094 00:54:55,160 --> 00:55:00,560 Speaker 1: this case because she had before the indictment data. One 1095 00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,120 Speaker 1: of the lawyers on the case, by the way, she's 1096 00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:07,200 Speaker 1: no longer with him. And it was an entire four 1097 00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:11,000 Speaker 1: or five six hours, a bunch of hours of them 1098 00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:16,640 Speaker 1: trying to sully her and imply that she was somehow 1099 00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:20,399 Speaker 1: doing something improper. It was like yet another time when 1100 00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:24,719 Speaker 1: I've watched Maga World try to target a woman, in 1101 00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:28,240 Speaker 1: this case, a woman of color with like a low, 1102 00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:33,840 Speaker 1: sleeezy innuendo, and it's funny because it's like, it's not funny, 1103 00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,640 Speaker 1: it's infuriating. But if you think about it, the Republicans, 1104 00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:41,120 Speaker 1: this is all in service to one Donald J. Trump, 1105 00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,759 Speaker 1: who in fact did pay a porn star when his 1106 00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,200 Speaker 1: third wife was pregnant so that she would not rat 1107 00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:51,919 Speaker 1: him out during his run for president. I mean, all 1108 00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:56,680 Speaker 1: of the CD innuendo, all of the sleazy crap that 1109 00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,960 Speaker 1: these lawyers are trying to pin on this woman because 1110 00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:05,040 Speaker 1: she wants to hold Donald Trump accountable. Well, all that stuff, 1111 00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:08,279 Speaker 1: by the way, Donald Trump did it. So to sit 1112 00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:12,640 Speaker 1: there and watch really a professional, smart woman, who with 1113 00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,320 Speaker 1: a really accomplished career, who had had all of these 1114 00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:22,680 Speaker 1: very accomplished jobs be sullied by these disgusting lawyers in 1115 00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,239 Speaker 1: service to Donald Trump, it gave me real flashbacks to 1116 00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,560 Speaker 1: some of the many, many times we've seen Trump sick 1117 00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:33,120 Speaker 1: of fans do disgusting things to women in the name 1118 00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:36,719 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, and those fuckers they're my moment of fuckery. 1119 00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:41,120 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in 1120 00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:44,400 Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the best minds 1121 00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:47,640 Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you 1122 00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,440 Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend 1123 00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:54,040 Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.