Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene Jay Lee.
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
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Speaker 1: IMF out with this outlook, lifting the forecast for the
Speaker 1: global economy. But it's the story within regions that I
Speaker 1: think gets a little bit more interesting. Downgrading Europe and
Speaker 1: upgrading the United States get to go up and f
Speaker 1: the IMF chief economists right in the following Much now
Speaker 1: depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating
Speaker 1: virus and vaccines to when the pandemic and on the
Speaker 1: ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens.
Speaker 1: Get around, please to say joins us now get it.
Speaker 1: Thankful you time this morning. I know you're exceptionally busy.
Speaker 1: Let's just start with that breakdown on the regional side.
Speaker 1: What was behind the upgrade for the United States and
Speaker 1: the down grade for Europe. Firstly, it's a pleasure to
Speaker 1: join you. What we have is that in the case
Speaker 1: of the US, we ended twenty twenty with an additional
Speaker 1: uh stimulus that was provided and that is an important
Speaker 1: factor for the upgrade for the US by almost a
Speaker 1: percentage point in twenty also ended in some way in
Speaker 1: a you know, less worse place than what we had
Speaker 1: projected for the US. In the case of the Euro Area,
Speaker 1: we still have a strict containment measures in place. This
Speaker 1: virus resurgence is leading to a decline and mobility, which
Speaker 1: is much more than what we're seeing in the US,
Speaker 1: and that's part of the reason why because we have
Speaker 1: a downgrade for the first quarter in the Euro Area.
Speaker 1: For the year as a whole, we have a down
Speaker 1: grade for twenty twenty one. So I'd like to start
Speaker 1: in the United States and the stimulus effort and then
Speaker 1: we can turn to vaccines. It's what's happening in Europe.
Speaker 1: So I want to stimulus effort. N billion is what
Speaker 1: you baked into the outlook the one point nine trillion.
Speaker 1: Is that just a little bit extra for you gatsor
Speaker 1: what would that actually do to the outlook? And is
Speaker 1: it targeted enough? So of course the details, I mean,
Speaker 1: it still has to be completely settled, so it's not
Speaker 1: in our focus. We have a very preliminary estimate that
Speaker 1: says that about one point nine trillion stimulus would raise
Speaker 1: the level of US g d P by five pcent
Speaker 1: over three years, So that's between twenty one and twenty three. UM.
Speaker 1: I mean our view is that, of course we are
Speaker 1: still in the midst of this health crisis. There is
Speaker 1: need for much more faster vaccine rollout, force health spending
Speaker 1: including and testing, UH, and also for providing support to
Speaker 1: vulnerable households and businesses and so you know, all of
Speaker 1: those are important pieces that have to be addressed still. UH.
Speaker 1: And so so you know that those are support measures
Speaker 1: that should be provided five over the next three years
Speaker 1: that decent numbers, But get basis on the size of
Speaker 1: the program one point nine or is there some specifics
Speaker 1: about the composition of it the I M F likes
Speaker 1: and would like to see more of. So this is uh,
Speaker 1: you know where you know, I'm just making a statement
Speaker 1: about our estimate impact of one point i triuly and
Speaker 1: would be able three years. I mean, that's a fiscal
Speaker 1: wants to player point six just taking into account what
Speaker 1: we know from a previous data on how much of
Speaker 1: it tends to get saved based on the package that
Speaker 1: was was you know, was talked about, but again the
Speaker 1: details still have to be worked out, and so we'll
Speaker 1: see what exact shape that finally takes. One thing you've
Speaker 1: said in the outlook is the mutations the new strains,
Speaker 1: And I just wander from your perspective, whether the strains
Speaker 1: that we're seeing in the United Kingdom, Brazil, South Africa
Speaker 1: actually raised the bar to reopen these economies gets So
Speaker 1: how do you think about those things at the moment. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think what it tells us that, you know, while
Speaker 1: stay at home is difficult and social distancing is difficult,
Speaker 1: we know that the the chances of the various mutiating
Speaker 1: is higher when all of us are out there and
Speaker 1: you know, mixing, and so I think this is an
Speaker 1: additional reason for for you know, kind of being very
Speaker 1: cautious about going out and very and very important to
Speaker 1: wear masks and so on. So yes, I think we
Speaker 1: have to, you know, continue to vaccinate a very high
Speaker 1: basic It doesn't change what we need to do. I
Speaker 1: think we'll we still need to do is simply to
Speaker 1: exhilerate the pace of vaccine rollout, but also now we
Speaker 1: have to just make it available to the world as
Speaker 1: a whole. I mean, the way it is right now
Speaker 1: is terribly inequitive, and we know that the virus mutication
Speaker 1: can come from anywhere in the world. What you're building
Speaker 1: them right now, the gator is absolutely critical. The conversation
Speaker 1: of having at the moment almost every day with market participants.
Speaker 1: It's just relative growth differentials between Europe the United States.
Speaker 1: The vaccine rollout is good here, it's bad there. One
Speaker 1: will do okay, one we'll do better, the other one
Speaker 1: will do terribly. Would you be willing to make the
Speaker 1: argument now that if we don't make a bigger effort
Speaker 1: to vaccinate those outside the developed world, that that ultimately
Speaker 1: will drag down the global econom at some point anyway? Well, absolutely,
Speaker 1: I mean the arguments are obviousible on the health side,
Speaker 1: on the economic side. On the health side, because of
Speaker 1: these new variants, we just know that the pandemic is
Speaker 1: not over until it's over everywhere. But there's also a
Speaker 1: strong economic argument. I mean, we estimate that if you
Speaker 1: can get to a faster into this health crisis by
Speaker 1: much more widespread rollout of vaccinism and therapies, you know,
Speaker 1: we would add nine trillion dollars to the global economy
Speaker 1: between twenty twenty and twenty five and everybody benefits, including
Speaker 1: the advanced economies who stand to gain four trillion dollars
Speaker 1: around four trillion dollars. So this is, you know, a
Speaker 1: very strong economic case for doing much more. Now, final
Speaker 1: question gates there is a take amongst some people, especially
Speaker 1: at markets. It seems to be a belief that if
Speaker 1: we have to delay reopenings by an extra quarter or so,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter, it won't be growth loss will make
Speaker 1: up for it at the back end of the year
Speaker 1: into two as well. Do you see it that way?
Speaker 1: So there's a couple of things. Even if you just
Speaker 1: look at when you have a lockdowns, the effect of
Speaker 1: that on economic activity is much lower than what we
Speaker 1: had in the spring last spring. You know, if you
Speaker 1: look at, for instance, relation moving in mobility and economic
Speaker 1: activity in the U S. Mobility has barely knew that much,
Speaker 1: but economic activity has continued to recover. So countries have
Speaker 1: gotten used to functioning with social distancing in place, so
Speaker 1: the effect is going to be less severe. And indeed,
Speaker 1: I mean, for many economies were wanting your higher savings
Speaker 1: rates in the among households so you could rebound. But
Speaker 1: again I just cannot emphasize enough the uncertain team. There
Speaker 1: is so much more we still need to know about
Speaker 1: how this pandemic evolves. I think that's a message that
Speaker 1: resonites with a lot of our audience. Kata, thank you
Speaker 1: for your time. It's precious getting golopment at there. The
Speaker 1: I m f Chief economist right now. And this is
Speaker 1: a joy, folks for those of you that aren't speed
Speaker 1: on United Kingdom academics. If you're John Pharaoh, there's a
Speaker 1: point where you must learn rawsy injustice. It's what they
Speaker 1: do in terms of theory in the United Kingdom. And
Speaker 1: right now, one of our experts on human rights and
Speaker 1: its application to our public health in our law, Lawrence
Speaker 1: Gonston joins us where Georgetown University. I want to go
Speaker 1: back to your book Human Rights, Professor Gonston, and I
Speaker 1: want to talk about the shocking change in philosophy without
Speaker 1: saying Republican or Democrat, but this tectonic shift we're having
Speaker 1: right now in the perception of American human rights on
Speaker 1: this transfer of government. Your observation, please, wow, it's like
Speaker 1: not in day, isn't it. Um. You know, all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, we're you know, we're back to the truth.
Speaker 1: We're back to freedom of expression. Um, we've rejoined the
Speaker 1: World Health Organization. UM, We've rejoined the Climate Change Agreement
Speaker 1: in Paris. UM. So there. It's really been a tectonic
Speaker 1: change from the last administration. It's kind of almost like
Speaker 1: a whip saw, you you know, go ego from one
Speaker 1: to the other. I think that the big thing is,
Speaker 1: you know, whether American allies are going to think, well, gosh,
Speaker 1: you know, is America here? Is this one America? Or
Speaker 1: is this two America's where we see the old America again?
Speaker 1: And it's you know, we don't know that. Well, this
Speaker 1: is vitally important. And this spans your career of the
Speaker 1: Reagan and the Trumpian individualism of less government or indeed
Speaker 1: no government, uh somewhat outitorialized, Professor Gunston, Do you see
Speaker 1: a shift here in an end or diminution of what
Speaker 1: we got from Ronald Reagan? Yeah, I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: if we're we're in the middle of we're all kind
Speaker 1: of suffering. During the break, we were just having a
Speaker 1: laugh about how COVID has completely gripped and changed our lives,
Speaker 1: you know, and if there was ever a time that
Speaker 1: really government has come through for us, the government failed
Speaker 1: for sure in the United States we were no match
Speaker 1: for the virus. But then you know, government public private
Speaker 1: partnerships through science pharmaceutical companies, the nih UM we ended
Speaker 1: up with. You know, we we we the science was
Speaker 1: the match for the coronavirus. We've got this vaccine um
Speaker 1: in we've never seen it this quick um and we're
Speaker 1: now poised by the end of the year um to
Speaker 1: think that we might climb our way out of that.
Speaker 1: That was that was a partnership about what government can
Speaker 1: do with the private sector. I think that the new
Speaker 1: way that we move forward in America and globally are
Speaker 1: really public private partnerships. Their nimble um they get the
Speaker 1: best of both worlds. And you know, the proof of
Speaker 1: the pudding is is that now we're starting to get
Speaker 1: you know, vaccines and people's arms way too slowly, but
Speaker 1: that will improve. That's what I was going to ask
Speaker 1: Professor Gostin. How do we turbocharge getting vaccines and people's arms.
Speaker 1: You know, we we've been able to do it before.
Speaker 1: It's really kind of shocking to see how badly we've
Speaker 1: done in the United States thus far. But you know,
Speaker 1: if you think about you know, polio in the United States,
Speaker 1: where we went through a massive campaign, or if you
Speaker 1: think about UM the current polio eradication UM which the
Speaker 1: United States UH is spearheading, or that we eradicated smallpox.
Speaker 1: I mean the way to do it is you open
Speaker 1: up a lot of vaccine clinics. You get mobile units
Speaker 1: to go into rural areas, into elderly vulnerable people's homes,
Speaker 1: into prisons, nursing homes. UM. You have UM drives right now.
Speaker 1: What's the real problem with the American rollout is is
Speaker 1: that it's just far too complicated. You have you know,
Speaker 1: you just talk to any of your friends and they'll say, well,
Speaker 1: you know, have you called this number, have you been
Speaker 1: on this website, did you try you know this pharmacy,
Speaker 1: are you in this county, this state? UM. So it
Speaker 1: privileges the people that are tech savvy, that kind of
Speaker 1: know their way around, but the people who really need
Speaker 1: the vaccines really really can't compete in that kind of
Speaker 1: a way to search for them. So we know we
Speaker 1: need to search for them, they don't need to search
Speaker 1: for the vaccine. Looking forward, Professor Gossa, there's a question
Speaker 1: of whether what we have seen over the past two years,
Speaker 1: year and a half will turbo charge investment in pharmaceutical
Speaker 1: companies in the development of new drugs and new biological research.
Speaker 1: And this comes as Israel gets a headstart in part
Speaker 1: because of their production of some of these vaccines. Do
Speaker 1: you already see the groundwork being laid for more investment,
Speaker 1: both on the public side as well as the private side,
Speaker 1: for this type of development. It's a really interesting question,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I think, I think pharma is
Speaker 1: you know, you know, certainly come come through for us
Speaker 1: on this UM. But on the other hand, you know,
Speaker 1: pandemics are funny things from an economic point of view. UM.
Speaker 1: The reason companies don't invest in them, and the reason
Speaker 1: that the public doesn't invest in them is because they're
Speaker 1: so unpredictable. Um. You know, it's very possible that you
Speaker 1: know that the next uh novel coronavirus or novel influenza, UM,
Speaker 1: and we'll we'll we'll jump from an animal to a
Speaker 1: human and then we'll just get it right under control.
Speaker 1: We're and and a lot of money putting into vaccines
Speaker 1: won't work. And so what what what the new thinking
Speaker 1: is is is that we develop with public private partnerships.
Speaker 1: You you need public investment for this platforms, and so
Speaker 1: the platform can be there, and then when the pathogen comes,
Speaker 1: you've already got kind of a way to a tackle it.
Speaker 1: That's exactly what Fiser and Maderna have done with their
Speaker 1: messenger RNA vaccines. You know, they started out as platforms.
Speaker 1: We were looking at them for things like um the
Speaker 1: stars virus, and then when this came, we were all
Speaker 1: ready in the way ahead. And I think that's the future.
Speaker 1: Professor come back saying, great to catch up. Professor of Georgetown,
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Let's stuff tell this together with
Speaker 1: Mr Burlin's comments with Fiser and bring it over to
Speaker 1: Tina Fordham, Avener's partner and ahead of Global political strategy.
Speaker 1: We do this and welcome all of you on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Radio and Bloomberg Television. Tina, I love how you address
Speaker 1: in your note the walls of worry of January, and
Speaker 1: you make very clear they're not going to be the
Speaker 1: same as the walls of worry of Q three. The
Speaker 1: market right now is looking out at the politics of
Speaker 1: the third and fourth quarter of this year. What will
Speaker 1: it look like? Well, I think your previous speakers have
Speaker 1: have already taken us through some of the obstacles to
Speaker 1: the rollout. Um. I've been talking about my VACS popular
Speaker 1: thesis for a while. I think there's phase one and
Speaker 1: phase two. The phase one is the logistics, the government
Speaker 1: capacity that the like willingness UM plus the risk of
Speaker 1: mutant strainings. But I think the second phase is that
Speaker 1: periods um following pandemics tend to see more political disruption
Speaker 1: and extremism. And whether we're thinking about the capital riots
Speaker 1: and Black Lives Matter or that we're anti curfew protests
Speaker 1: in the Netherlands yesterday, this is going to be a
Speaker 1: volatile period as we look to get this under control. Tina,
Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about the politics of getting
Speaker 1: the vaccine out. There is a question of what went
Speaker 1: so wrong in the European Union that they are so
Speaker 1: delayed there so behind the United Kingdom, the US and
Speaker 1: places like Israel. Does this raise questions about the integrity
Speaker 1: of the EU as a social experiment if they are
Speaker 1: unable to plan on a routine and mass basis for
Speaker 1: their population to be inoculated. Well, I think that's a
Speaker 1: particularly American point of view. Um. The US has just
Speaker 1: started its role out and UM, you know, it's kind
Speaker 1: of starting from from nothing. The UK here where I'm
Speaker 1: based is is very pleased that it's out doing Europe
Speaker 1: UM so far, part of the logistics, part of its
Speaker 1: government capacity, part of its federal universus, regional infrastructure. UM.
Speaker 1: I do think the EU will get there. I think
Speaker 1: there's not any reflection on the EU as a as
Speaker 1: a social experiment. UM. As you suggested, UM, the U
Speaker 1: S and the UK still have the highest death rates
Speaker 1: out of the countries that we mentioned. UM. The UK,
Speaker 1: out of all of the countries that we're talking about,
Speaker 1: also has one big advantage, and that is a higher
Speaker 1: rate of willingness to take the vaccine, which is helping
Speaker 1: and approval it approved before the EU did well. There's
Speaker 1: a question though, Tina, about the conservatism in the European
Speaker 1: Union approach and not necessarily going as aggressively after the
Speaker 1: vaccines as early in prioritizing the price and trying to
Speaker 1: be sort of more democratic about the whole situation in
Speaker 1: terms of who gets the vaccine, and it isn't necessarily
Speaker 1: working in the same way. What kind of political reckoning
Speaker 1: will there be in Europe as a result of this?
Speaker 1: I think when I you know, my conception of this vaccs.
Speaker 1: Popular risk idea is where there is a combination of
Speaker 1: high futalities um a slow rollout plus or minus this
Speaker 1: vaccine hesitancy factor and elections coming up. So if we
Speaker 1: put that kind of lens over countries at risk, France
Speaker 1: obviously comes out, you know, quite quite near the top
Speaker 1: with parliamentary elections this year, presidential next, Italy always because
Speaker 1: Italy has got kind of all of the risk factors
Speaker 1: and the government there is certainly starting to to wobble.
Speaker 1: So it is imperative that governments find the capacity to
Speaker 1: to roll this out and they regain the advantage on
Speaker 1: competence because that's the biggest political risk factor in the
Speaker 1: government incompetence. Tuna Fordham, thank you so much. With Evan Hurst,
Speaker 1: partner and head of Global Political Strategy, worked Green on
Speaker 1: the screen today, Tom and why not the Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: back stopping this market. A lot of folks are saying,
Speaker 1: have I missed my entry point? I've talked to a
Speaker 1: few little have I missed my I'm getting solo Chris.
Speaker 1: Heisie Meryl and Bank of America Private Bank Chief Investment Officer. Chris,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. You know you
Speaker 1: take a look at this market. You see Tom's favorite
Speaker 1: investment vehicle, SPACs almost on a daily basis, coming to
Speaker 1: the market. You see Robin Hood retail traders pushing stocks
Speaker 1: all around the board like game stop. Give us a
Speaker 1: sense of how you view this market in terms of
Speaker 1: the frothiness if you will, in this market. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think it's a subject that it really started to take
Speaker 1: off in no member of last year when small caps
Speaker 1: had their best month ever and the whole head fake,
Speaker 1: you know, the Michael Jordan's head fake of investing started
Speaker 1: to go away, and people started to believe that cyclical
Speaker 1: can actually extend some of their rally. And then now
Speaker 1: we talk about offering three, four or five six a week.
Speaker 1: We talk about, you know, what's going on in the
Speaker 1: big story, little profit stocks that are out there being
Speaker 1: bit up, the high enterprise value to sales companies that
Speaker 1: are about a quarter of trading volume in the US.
Speaker 1: And everybody remembers when or at least some of us
Speaker 1: remember when right um fall in terms of but I
Speaker 1: would point to this, you have to look at policy,
Speaker 1: You have to look at what are the tail winds
Speaker 1: that are driving not just the thin parts of the
Speaker 1: market that the risk areas that are suggesting, you know,
Speaker 1: quite frankly flashing orange as you As you pointed out,
Speaker 1: the sentiment indicators are clearly at highs right now. For
Speaker 1: all this is out there, there's a lot of discussion
Speaker 1: as to did I miss it? Valuations are high, but
Speaker 1: earnings are low, and mathematics tells you that when earnings
Speaker 1: are at a trough, many times valuations are going to
Speaker 1: be high. That's where we are right now. I would
Speaker 1: think differently if earnings were at a peak and valuations
Speaker 1: were high, and thank you so much for that analysis.
Speaker 1: I would point out, folks, Microsoft, Paul taught me the
Speaker 1: symbol and the break Microsoft here with a jump condition
Speaker 1: out to two thirty two. I believe that's out to
Speaker 1: a record high Dow well over SPX were on watch, Chris.
Speaker 1: That's all great and well, but the way this always
Speaker 1: ends is a cathartic move. Do you see an emotional
Speaker 1: catharsis right now that leads you to say tippy tippy
Speaker 1: top yea not yet, not yet Tom. It feels that
Speaker 1: way because of headlines. It feels that way because of
Speaker 1: focus that we read and whether you're talking about the
Speaker 1: short squeezes that are going on. But actually, when you
Speaker 1: talk to individual investors, and you talked to to folks
Speaker 1: out there that are in the market already but not
Speaker 1: participating as much, they don't believe that there are no
Speaker 1: risks out there. They still build the five top risks.
Speaker 1: They're still worried, they're concerned, and they're marching too risks. Still,
Speaker 1: they're not coming into the market blindly, and that to
Speaker 1: me means that whatever pause is coming at whatever time
Speaker 1: is a temporary pause and it's not the tippy top alright. So,
Speaker 1: as you talked to the thundering herd at Mary Lynch,
Speaker 1: that huge retail brokerage force across the country, here, what
Speaker 1: is the risk appetite here? Um, Chris? Are they willing
Speaker 1: to continue to take risk in this market that they
Speaker 1: are they playing that reopening trade in the back half
Speaker 1: of this year. It's a fantastic question because it does
Speaker 1: give you a really good feel for not only the
Speaker 1: client side, but the advisors side. And from my perspective,
Speaker 1: what we have done and we always do on a
Speaker 1: quarter basis, as we we write down what are the
Speaker 1: big questions out there and what's the mood. The mood
Speaker 1: is cautiously optimistic on the economy, but cautious on the market,
Speaker 1: so they're waiting for that. Things are not only okay,
Speaker 1: but we're not walking into a pullback of say ten percent,
Speaker 1: So there's still a little bit of trepidation out there.
Speaker 1: There's cash on the sidelines, and I know cash has
Speaker 1: come into the markets. We saw the record flows go in,
Speaker 1: but if you go back to oh eight and even
Speaker 1: two eighteen, more than of all flows are still into
Speaker 1: fixed income. So on a relative basis, you know, in
Speaker 1: about six percent eight percent or so into equities, So
Speaker 1: we have a ways to go here. On a longer
Speaker 1: term basis, shorter term, I would paint the mood as
Speaker 1: there's cash out there waiting to invest. Advisors and callience
Speaker 1: are cautious, but they're optimistic on the economy. So Chris,
Speaker 1: what do you think about this rotation trade? It's really
Speaker 1: becoming to vote here, and it's you know, we're kind
Speaker 1: of four to five months into this trade where people
Speaker 1: are willing to look to the other side of this pandemic,
Speaker 1: look to an opening of this economy and saying, hey,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take some cyclical risk here. I may even
Speaker 1: go small cap here, looking for value and looking for performance.
Speaker 1: How do you view that trade is? Is it something
Speaker 1: we can depend upon you know going forward? We believe so.
Speaker 1: We we just upgraded in January small caps two more
Speaker 1: of an overweight. We had a slight overweight. We were
Speaker 1: waiting for some data to come through to make sure
Speaker 1: that there was more of a secular trend at play,
Speaker 1: not just an ultra cyclical trend that we saw to
Speaker 1: close the year. UM, we upgraded, UH, Financials and industrials
Speaker 1: and materials as well. UH, those areas you know, provide
Speaker 1: a little bit more cyclical value and growth quite frankly
Speaker 1: in those areas, and we are upgraded, and you know,
Speaker 1: we closed out of merging markets underweight and we went
Speaker 1: to neutral. The point is you're in the market, right.
Speaker 1: How many people do you see his Paul mentions at
Speaker 1: Marylynch with the sprawl of your retail and institutional and
Speaker 1: high networth people, how many people are just flat out
Speaker 1: not in the market. It's tough to tell. UM, I
Speaker 1: would say a low point are flat out not in Uh.
Speaker 1: There has been a small increase of of of a
Speaker 1: risk budget if you will, Tom where you've saw people,
Speaker 1: you know, because of a backup and yields lower, some
Speaker 1: fixed income allocations raise, some equity allocations. But on the margin,
Speaker 1: we didn't see a huge know that so called great rotation. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we do believe though, that one is a great rotation
Speaker 1: foundational year for those long term institutional accounts that I
Speaker 1: had going to have a hard time matching total return targets.
Speaker 1: As you'll back up. I mean, Paul, just to put
Speaker 1: this in perspective, is chriss You know, I'm so used
Speaker 1: to the gloom of Lisa Bramo. It's that gets through it.
Speaker 1: But a ten percent correction here, obviously three thousand down
Speaker 1: points get you back to November six, it gets you
Speaker 1: back to the second week of August, and it's just
Speaker 1: beneath the peaky peak we'd never see again Valentine's Day
Speaker 1: pre pandemic. I mean, the only thing I can say constructive, Paul,
Speaker 1: from my entry point is a ten percent correction gives
Speaker 1: me beneath the nirvana of Valentine's Day. So, Chris, how
Speaker 1: about for the for the folks that feel like maybe
Speaker 1: they've missed the market? Who would that be? What's your
Speaker 1: advice for those folks? Chris? Yeah, I think it's tough.
Speaker 1: We all point to dollar cost averaging, we point the seasonality,
Speaker 1: we point to the calendar. I think use the capital
Speaker 1: markets as your friend. I know that sounds like it's
Speaker 1: easy to do. It's not. But if you're disciplined and
Speaker 1: you actually point to week periods in the market, as
Speaker 1: Thomas suggesting, you know, don't wait for that large invitation
Speaker 1: to the so called party, wait for the small invitation
Speaker 1: and figure out what your target is. If your target
Speaker 1: here at sixty deployed to three on weekdays, week weeks
Speaker 1: over the course of the first quarter, and from our
Speaker 1: perspective we see the Maverick bull market. We call it
Speaker 1: a Maverick bull market continuing because it's independently thinking. And
Speaker 1: that's what, from our perspective, is the more what I
Speaker 1: would say, expective way to deploy money into the market. Chris,
Speaker 1: as you think it's so much for the Marylynch and
Speaker 1: Bank of American Private Bank. Thanks for listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Tom Keane. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide.
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg radio