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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene Jay Lee.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. The

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Speaker 1: IMF out with this outlook, lifting the forecast for the

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Speaker 1: global economy. But it's the story within regions that I

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Speaker 1: think gets a little bit more interesting. Downgrading Europe and

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Speaker 1: upgrading the United States get to go up and f

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Speaker 1: the IMF chief economists right in the following Much now

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Speaker 1: depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating

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Speaker 1: virus and vaccines to when the pandemic and on the

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Speaker 1: ability of policies to provide effective support until that happens.

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Speaker 1: Get around, please to say joins us now get it.

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Speaker 1: Thankful you time this morning. I know you're exceptionally busy.

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Speaker 1: Let's just start with that breakdown on the regional side.

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Speaker 1: What was behind the upgrade for the United States and

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Speaker 1: the down grade for Europe. Firstly, it's a pleasure to

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Speaker 1: join you. What we have is that in the case

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Speaker 1: of the US, we ended twenty twenty with an additional

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Speaker 1: uh stimulus that was provided and that is an important

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Speaker 1: factor for the upgrade for the US by almost a

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Speaker 1: percentage point in twenty also ended in some way in

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Speaker 1: a you know, less worse place than what we had

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Speaker 1: projected for the US. In the case of the Euro Area,

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Speaker 1: we still have a strict containment measures in place. This

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Speaker 1: virus resurgence is leading to a decline and mobility, which

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Speaker 1: is much more than what we're seeing in the US,

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Speaker 1: and that's part of the reason why because we have

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Speaker 1: a downgrade for the first quarter in the Euro Area.

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Speaker 1: For the year as a whole, we have a down

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Speaker 1: grade for twenty twenty one. So I'd like to start

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Speaker 1: in the United States and the stimulus effort and then

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Speaker 1: we can turn to vaccines. It's what's happening in Europe.

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Speaker 1: So I want to stimulus effort. N billion is what

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Speaker 1: you baked into the outlook the one point nine trillion.

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Speaker 1: Is that just a little bit extra for you gatsor

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Speaker 1: what would that actually do to the outlook? And is

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Speaker 1: it targeted enough? So of course the details, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it still has to be completely settled, so it's not

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Speaker 1: in our focus. We have a very preliminary estimate that

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Speaker 1: says that about one point nine trillion stimulus would raise

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Speaker 1: the level of US g d P by five pcent

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Speaker 1: over three years, So that's between twenty one and twenty three. UM.

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Speaker 1: I mean our view is that, of course we are

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Speaker 1: still in the midst of this health crisis. There is

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Speaker 1: need for much more faster vaccine rollout, force health spending

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Speaker 1: including and testing, UH, and also for providing support to

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Speaker 1: vulnerable households and businesses and so you know, all of

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Speaker 1: those are important pieces that have to be addressed still. UH.

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Speaker 1: And so so you know that those are support measures

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Speaker 1: that should be provided five over the next three years

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Speaker 1: that decent numbers, But get basis on the size of

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Speaker 1: the program one point nine or is there some specifics

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Speaker 1: about the composition of it the I M F likes

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Speaker 1: and would like to see more of. So this is uh,

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Speaker 1: you know where you know, I'm just making a statement

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Speaker 1: about our estimate impact of one point i triuly and

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Speaker 1: would be able three years. I mean, that's a fiscal

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Speaker 1: wants to player point six just taking into account what

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Speaker 1: we know from a previous data on how much of

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Speaker 1: it tends to get saved based on the package that

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Speaker 1: was was you know, was talked about, but again the

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Speaker 1: details still have to be worked out, and so we'll

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Speaker 1: see what exact shape that finally takes. One thing you've

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Speaker 1: said in the outlook is the mutations the new strains,

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Speaker 1: And I just wander from your perspective, whether the strains

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing in the United Kingdom, Brazil, South Africa

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Speaker 1: actually raised the bar to reopen these economies gets So

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Speaker 1: how do you think about those things at the moment. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think what it tells us that, you know, while

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Speaker 1: stay at home is difficult and social distancing is difficult,

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Speaker 1: we know that the the chances of the various mutiating

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Speaker 1: is higher when all of us are out there and

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Speaker 1: you know, mixing, and so I think this is an

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Speaker 1: additional reason for for you know, kind of being very

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Speaker 1: cautious about going out and very and very important to

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Speaker 1: wear masks and so on. So yes, I think we

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Speaker 1: have to, you know, continue to vaccinate a very high

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Speaker 1: basic It doesn't change what we need to do. I

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Speaker 1: think we'll we still need to do is simply to

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Speaker 1: exhilerate the pace of vaccine rollout, but also now we

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Speaker 1: have to just make it available to the world as

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Speaker 1: a whole. I mean, the way it is right now

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Speaker 1: is terribly inequitive, and we know that the virus mutication

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Speaker 1: can come from anywhere in the world. What you're building

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Speaker 1: them right now, the gator is absolutely critical. The conversation

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Speaker 1: of having at the moment almost every day with market participants.

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Speaker 1: It's just relative growth differentials between Europe the United States.

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Speaker 1: The vaccine rollout is good here, it's bad there. One

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Speaker 1: will do okay, one we'll do better, the other one

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Speaker 1: will do terribly. Would you be willing to make the

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Speaker 1: argument now that if we don't make a bigger effort

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Speaker 1: to vaccinate those outside the developed world, that that ultimately

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Speaker 1: will drag down the global econom at some point anyway? Well, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: I mean the arguments are obviousible on the health side,

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Speaker 1: on the economic side. On the health side, because of

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Speaker 1: these new variants, we just know that the pandemic is

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Speaker 1: not over until it's over everywhere. But there's also a

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Speaker 1: strong economic argument. I mean, we estimate that if you

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Speaker 1: can get to a faster into this health crisis by

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Speaker 1: much more widespread rollout of vaccinism and therapies, you know,

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Speaker 1: we would add nine trillion dollars to the global economy

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Speaker 1: between twenty twenty and twenty five and everybody benefits, including

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Speaker 1: the advanced economies who stand to gain four trillion dollars

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Speaker 1: around four trillion dollars. So this is, you know, a

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Speaker 1: very strong economic case for doing much more. Now, final

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Speaker 1: question gates there is a take amongst some people, especially

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Speaker 1: at markets. It seems to be a belief that if

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Speaker 1: we have to delay reopenings by an extra quarter or so,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter, it won't be growth loss will make

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Speaker 1: up for it at the back end of the year

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Speaker 1: into two as well. Do you see it that way?

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Speaker 1: So there's a couple of things. Even if you just

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Speaker 1: look at when you have a lockdowns, the effect of

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Speaker 1: that on economic activity is much lower than what we

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Speaker 1: had in the spring last spring. You know, if you

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Speaker 1: look at, for instance, relation moving in mobility and economic

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Speaker 1: activity in the U S. Mobility has barely knew that much,

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Speaker 1: but economic activity has continued to recover. So countries have

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Speaker 1: gotten used to functioning with social distancing in place, so

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Speaker 1: the effect is going to be less severe. And indeed,

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Speaker 1: I mean, for many economies were wanting your higher savings

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Speaker 1: rates in the among households so you could rebound. But

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Speaker 1: again I just cannot emphasize enough the uncertain team. There

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Speaker 1: is so much more we still need to know about

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Speaker 1: how this pandemic evolves. I think that's a message that

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Speaker 1: resonites with a lot of our audience. Kata, thank you

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Speaker 1: for your time. It's precious getting golopment at there. The

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Speaker 1: I m f Chief economist right now. And this is

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Speaker 1: a joy, folks for those of you that aren't speed

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Speaker 1: on United Kingdom academics. If you're John Pharaoh, there's a

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Speaker 1: point where you must learn rawsy injustice. It's what they

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Speaker 1: do in terms of theory in the United Kingdom. And

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Speaker 1: right now, one of our experts on human rights and

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Speaker 1: its application to our public health in our law, Lawrence

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Speaker 1: Gonston joins us where Georgetown University. I want to go

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Speaker 1: back to your book Human Rights, Professor Gonston, and I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about the shocking change in philosophy without

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Speaker 1: saying Republican or Democrat, but this tectonic shift we're having

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Speaker 1: right now in the perception of American human rights on

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Speaker 1: this transfer of government. Your observation, please, wow, it's like

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Speaker 1: not in day, isn't it. Um. You know, all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, we're you know, we're back to the truth.

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Speaker 1: We're back to freedom of expression. Um, we've rejoined the

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Speaker 1: World Health Organization. UM, We've rejoined the Climate Change Agreement

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Speaker 1: in Paris. UM. So there. It's really been a tectonic

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Speaker 1: change from the last administration. It's kind of almost like

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Speaker 1: a whip saw, you you know, go ego from one

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Speaker 1: to the other. I think that the big thing is,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether American allies are going to think, well, gosh,

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Speaker 1: you know, is America here? Is this one America? Or

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Speaker 1: is this two America's where we see the old America again?

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Speaker 1: And it's you know, we don't know that. Well, this

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Speaker 1: is vitally important. And this spans your career of the

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Speaker 1: Reagan and the Trumpian individualism of less government or indeed

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Speaker 1: no government, uh somewhat outitorialized, Professor Gunston, Do you see

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Speaker 1: a shift here in an end or diminution of what

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Speaker 1: we got from Ronald Reagan? Yeah, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: if we're we're in the middle of we're all kind

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Speaker 1: of suffering. During the break, we were just having a

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Speaker 1: laugh about how COVID has completely gripped and changed our lives,

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Speaker 1: you know, and if there was ever a time that

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Speaker 1: really government has come through for us, the government failed

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Speaker 1: for sure in the United States we were no match

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Speaker 1: for the virus. But then you know, government public private

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Speaker 1: partnerships through science pharmaceutical companies, the nih UM we ended

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Speaker 1: up with. You know, we we we the science was

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Speaker 1: the match for the coronavirus. We've got this vaccine um

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Speaker 1: in we've never seen it this quick um and we're

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Speaker 1: now poised by the end of the year um to

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Speaker 1: think that we might climb our way out of that.

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Speaker 1: That was that was a partnership about what government can

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Speaker 1: do with the private sector. I think that the new

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Speaker 1: way that we move forward in America and globally are

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Speaker 1: really public private partnerships. Their nimble um they get the

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Speaker 1: best of both worlds. And you know, the proof of

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Speaker 1: the pudding is is that now we're starting to get

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Speaker 1: you know, vaccines and people's arms way too slowly, but

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Speaker 1: that will improve. That's what I was going to ask

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Speaker 1: Professor Gostin. How do we turbocharge getting vaccines and people's arms.

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Speaker 1: You know, we we've been able to do it before.

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Speaker 1: It's really kind of shocking to see how badly we've

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Speaker 1: done in the United States thus far. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if you think about you know, polio in the United States,

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Speaker 1: where we went through a massive campaign, or if you

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Speaker 1: think about UM the current polio eradication UM which the

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Speaker 1: United States UH is spearheading, or that we eradicated smallpox.

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Speaker 1: I mean the way to do it is you open

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Speaker 1: up a lot of vaccine clinics. You get mobile units

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Speaker 1: to go into rural areas, into elderly vulnerable people's homes,

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Speaker 1: into prisons, nursing homes. UM. You have UM drives right now.

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Speaker 1: What's the real problem with the American rollout is is

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Speaker 1: that it's just far too complicated. You have you know,

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Speaker 1: you just talk to any of your friends and they'll say, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, have you called this number, have you been

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Speaker 1: on this website, did you try you know this pharmacy,

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Speaker 1: are you in this county, this state? UM. So it

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Speaker 1: privileges the people that are tech savvy, that kind of

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Speaker 1: know their way around, but the people who really need

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Speaker 1: the vaccines really really can't compete in that kind of

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Speaker 1: a way to search for them. So we know we

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Speaker 1: need to search for them, they don't need to search

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Speaker 1: for the vaccine. Looking forward, Professor Gossa, there's a question

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Speaker 1: of whether what we have seen over the past two years,

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Speaker 1: year and a half will turbo charge investment in pharmaceutical

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Speaker 1: companies in the development of new drugs and new biological research.

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Speaker 1: And this comes as Israel gets a headstart in part

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Speaker 1: because of their production of some of these vaccines. Do

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Speaker 1: you already see the groundwork being laid for more investment,

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Speaker 1: both on the public side as well as the private side,

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Speaker 1: for this type of development. It's a really interesting question,

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I think, I think pharma is

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, certainly come come through for us

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Speaker 1: on this UM. But on the other hand, you know,

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Speaker 1: pandemics are funny things from an economic point of view. UM.

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Speaker 1: The reason companies don't invest in them, and the reason

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Speaker 1: that the public doesn't invest in them is because they're

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Speaker 1: so unpredictable. Um. You know, it's very possible that you

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Speaker 1: know that the next uh novel coronavirus or novel influenza, UM,

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Speaker 1: and we'll we'll we'll jump from an animal to a

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Speaker 1: human and then we'll just get it right under control.

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Speaker 1: We're and and a lot of money putting into vaccines

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Speaker 1: won't work. And so what what what the new thinking

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Speaker 1: is is is that we develop with public private partnerships.

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Speaker 1: You you need public investment for this platforms, and so

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Speaker 1: the platform can be there, and then when the pathogen comes,

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Speaker 1: you've already got kind of a way to a tackle it.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly what Fiser and Maderna have done with their

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Speaker 1: messenger RNA vaccines. You know, they started out as platforms.

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Speaker 1: We were looking at them for things like um the

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Speaker 1: stars virus, and then when this came, we were all

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Speaker 1: ready in the way ahead. And I think that's the future.

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Speaker 1: Professor come back saying, great to catch up. Professor of Georgetown,

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Let's stuff tell this together with

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Speaker 1: Mr Burlin's comments with Fiser and bring it over to

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Speaker 1: Tina Fordham, Avener's partner and ahead of Global political strategy.

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Speaker 1: We do this and welcome all of you on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio and Bloomberg Television. Tina, I love how you address

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Speaker 1: in your note the walls of worry of January, and

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Speaker 1: you make very clear they're not going to be the

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Speaker 1: same as the walls of worry of Q three. The

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Speaker 1: market right now is looking out at the politics of

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Speaker 1: the third and fourth quarter of this year. What will

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Speaker 1: it look like? Well, I think your previous speakers have

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Speaker 1: have already taken us through some of the obstacles to

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Speaker 1: the rollout. Um. I've been talking about my VACS popular

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Speaker 1: thesis for a while. I think there's phase one and

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Speaker 1: phase two. The phase one is the logistics, the government

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Speaker 1: capacity that the like willingness UM plus the risk of

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Speaker 1: mutant strainings. But I think the second phase is that

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Speaker 1: periods um following pandemics tend to see more political disruption

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Speaker 1: and extremism. And whether we're thinking about the capital riots

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Speaker 1: and Black Lives Matter or that we're anti curfew protests

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Speaker 1: in the Netherlands yesterday, this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: volatile period as we look to get this under control. Tina,

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Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about the politics of getting

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Speaker 1: the vaccine out. There is a question of what went

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Speaker 1: so wrong in the European Union that they are so

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Speaker 1: delayed there so behind the United Kingdom, the US and

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Speaker 1: places like Israel. Does this raise questions about the integrity

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Speaker 1: of the EU as a social experiment if they are

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Speaker 1: unable to plan on a routine and mass basis for

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Speaker 1: their population to be inoculated. Well, I think that's a

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Speaker 1: particularly American point of view. Um. The US has just

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Speaker 1: started its role out and UM, you know, it's kind

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Speaker 1: of starting from from nothing. The UK here where I'm

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Speaker 1: based is is very pleased that it's out doing Europe

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Speaker 1: UM so far, part of the logistics, part of its

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Speaker 1: government capacity, part of its federal universus, regional infrastructure. UM.

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Speaker 1: I do think the EU will get there. I think

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Speaker 1: there's not any reflection on the EU as a as

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Speaker 1: a social experiment. UM. As you suggested, UM, the U

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Speaker 1: S and the UK still have the highest death rates

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Speaker 1: out of the countries that we mentioned. UM. The UK,

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Speaker 1: out of all of the countries that we're talking about,

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Speaker 1: also has one big advantage, and that is a higher

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Speaker 1: rate of willingness to take the vaccine, which is helping

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Speaker 1: and approval it approved before the EU did well. There's

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Speaker 1: a question though, Tina, about the conservatism in the European

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Speaker 1: Union approach and not necessarily going as aggressively after the

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Speaker 1: vaccines as early in prioritizing the price and trying to

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Speaker 1: be sort of more democratic about the whole situation in

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Speaker 1: terms of who gets the vaccine, and it isn't necessarily

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Speaker 1: working in the same way. What kind of political reckoning

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Speaker 1: will there be in Europe as a result of this?

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Speaker 1: I think when I you know, my conception of this vaccs.

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Speaker 1: Popular risk idea is where there is a combination of

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Speaker 1: high futalities um a slow rollout plus or minus this

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Speaker 1: vaccine hesitancy factor and elections coming up. So if we

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Speaker 1: put that kind of lens over countries at risk, France

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Speaker 1: obviously comes out, you know, quite quite near the top

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Speaker 1: with parliamentary elections this year, presidential next, Italy always because

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Speaker 1: Italy has got kind of all of the risk factors

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Speaker 1: and the government there is certainly starting to to wobble.

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Speaker 1: So it is imperative that governments find the capacity to

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Speaker 1: to roll this out and they regain the advantage on

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Speaker 1: competence because that's the biggest political risk factor in the

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Speaker 1: government incompetence. Tuna Fordham, thank you so much. With Evan Hurst,

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Speaker 1: partner and head of Global Political Strategy, worked Green on

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Speaker 1: the screen today, Tom and why not the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: back stopping this market. A lot of folks are saying,

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Speaker 1: have I missed my entry point? I've talked to a

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Speaker 1: few little have I missed my I'm getting solo Chris.

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Speaker 1: Heisie Meryl and Bank of America Private Bank Chief Investment Officer. Chris,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. You know you

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Speaker 1: take a look at this market. You see Tom's favorite

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Speaker 1: investment vehicle, SPACs almost on a daily basis, coming to

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Speaker 1: the market. You see Robin Hood retail traders pushing stocks

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Speaker 1: all around the board like game stop. Give us a

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Speaker 1: sense of how you view this market in terms of

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Speaker 1: the frothiness if you will, in this market. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think it's a subject that it really started to take

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Speaker 1: off in no member of last year when small caps

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Speaker 1: had their best month ever and the whole head fake,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Michael Jordan's head fake of investing started

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Speaker 1: to go away, and people started to believe that cyclical

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Speaker 1: can actually extend some of their rally. And then now

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Speaker 1: we talk about offering three, four or five six a week.

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Speaker 1: We talk about, you know, what's going on in the

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Speaker 1: big story, little profit stocks that are out there being

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Speaker 1: bit up, the high enterprise value to sales companies that

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Speaker 1: are about a quarter of trading volume in the US.

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Speaker 1: And everybody remembers when or at least some of us

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Speaker 1: remember when right um fall in terms of but I

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Speaker 1: would point to this, you have to look at policy,

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Speaker 1: You have to look at what are the tail winds

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Speaker 1: that are driving not just the thin parts of the

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Speaker 1: market that the risk areas that are suggesting, you know,

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Speaker 1: quite frankly flashing orange as you As you pointed out,

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Speaker 1: the sentiment indicators are clearly at highs right now. For

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Speaker 1: all this is out there, there's a lot of discussion

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Speaker 1: as to did I miss it? Valuations are high, but

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Speaker 1: earnings are low, and mathematics tells you that when earnings

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Speaker 1: are at a trough, many times valuations are going to

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Speaker 1: be high. That's where we are right now. I would

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Speaker 1: think differently if earnings were at a peak and valuations

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Speaker 1: were high, and thank you so much for that analysis.

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Speaker 1: I would point out, folks, Microsoft, Paul taught me the

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Speaker 1: symbol and the break Microsoft here with a jump condition

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Speaker 1: out to two thirty two. I believe that's out to

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Speaker 1: a record high Dow well over SPX were on watch, Chris.

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Speaker 1: That's all great and well, but the way this always

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Speaker 1: ends is a cathartic move. Do you see an emotional

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Speaker 1: catharsis right now that leads you to say tippy tippy

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Speaker 1: top yea not yet, not yet Tom. It feels that

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Speaker 1: way because of headlines. It feels that way because of

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Speaker 1: focus that we read and whether you're talking about the

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Speaker 1: short squeezes that are going on. But actually, when you

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Speaker 1: talk to individual investors, and you talked to to folks

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Speaker 1: out there that are in the market already but not

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Speaker 1: participating as much, they don't believe that there are no

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Speaker 1: risks out there. They still build the five top risks.

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Speaker 1: They're still worried, they're concerned, and they're marching too risks. Still,

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Speaker 1: they're not coming into the market blindly, and that to

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Speaker 1: me means that whatever pause is coming at whatever time

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Speaker 1: is a temporary pause and it's not the tippy top alright. So,

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Speaker 1: as you talked to the thundering herd at Mary Lynch,

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Speaker 1: that huge retail brokerage force across the country, here, what

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Speaker 1: is the risk appetite here? Um, Chris? Are they willing

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Speaker 1: to continue to take risk in this market that they

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Speaker 1: are they playing that reopening trade in the back half

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Speaker 1: of this year. It's a fantastic question because it does

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Speaker 1: give you a really good feel for not only the

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Speaker 1: client side, but the advisors side. And from my perspective,

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Speaker 1: what we have done and we always do on a

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Speaker 1: quarter basis, as we we write down what are the

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Speaker 1: big questions out there and what's the mood. The mood

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Speaker 1: is cautiously optimistic on the economy, but cautious on the market,

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Speaker 1: so they're waiting for that. Things are not only okay,

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Speaker 1: but we're not walking into a pullback of say ten percent,

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Speaker 1: So there's still a little bit of trepidation out there.

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Speaker 1: There's cash on the sidelines, and I know cash has

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Speaker 1: come into the markets. We saw the record flows go in,

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Speaker 1: but if you go back to oh eight and even

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Speaker 1: two eighteen, more than of all flows are still into

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Speaker 1: fixed income. So on a relative basis, you know, in

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Speaker 1: about six percent eight percent or so into equities, So

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Speaker 1: we have a ways to go here. On a longer

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Speaker 1: term basis, shorter term, I would paint the mood as

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Speaker 1: there's cash out there waiting to invest. Advisors and callience

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Speaker 1: are cautious, but they're optimistic on the economy. So Chris,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about this rotation trade? It's really

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Speaker 1: becoming to vote here, and it's you know, we're kind

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Speaker 1: of four to five months into this trade where people

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Speaker 1: are willing to look to the other side of this pandemic,

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Speaker 1: look to an opening of this economy and saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take some cyclical risk here. I may even

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Speaker 1: go small cap here, looking for value and looking for performance.

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Speaker 1: How do you view that trade is? Is it something

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Speaker 1: we can depend upon you know going forward? We believe so.

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Speaker 1: We we just upgraded in January small caps two more

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Speaker 1: of an overweight. We had a slight overweight. We were

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Speaker 1: waiting for some data to come through to make sure

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Speaker 1: that there was more of a secular trend at play,

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Speaker 1: not just an ultra cyclical trend that we saw to

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Speaker 1: close the year. UM, we upgraded, UH, Financials and industrials

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Speaker 1: and materials as well. UH, those areas you know, provide

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Speaker 1: a little bit more cyclical value and growth quite frankly

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Speaker 1: in those areas, and we are upgraded, and you know,

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Speaker 1: we closed out of merging markets underweight and we went

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Speaker 1: to neutral. The point is you're in the market, right.

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Speaker 1: How many people do you see his Paul mentions at

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Speaker 1: Marylynch with the sprawl of your retail and institutional and

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Speaker 1: high networth people, how many people are just flat out

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Speaker 1: not in the market. It's tough to tell. UM, I

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Speaker 1: would say a low point are flat out not in Uh.

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Speaker 1: There has been a small increase of of of a

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Speaker 1: risk budget if you will, Tom where you've saw people,

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Speaker 1: you know, because of a backup and yields lower, some

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Speaker 1: fixed income allocations raise, some equity allocations. But on the margin,

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Speaker 1: we didn't see a huge know that so called great rotation. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we do believe though, that one is a great rotation

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Speaker 1: foundational year for those long term institutional accounts that I

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Speaker 1: had going to have a hard time matching total return targets.

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Speaker 1: As you'll back up. I mean, Paul, just to put

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Speaker 1: this in perspective, is chriss You know, I'm so used

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Speaker 1: to the gloom of Lisa Bramo. It's that gets through it.

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Speaker 1: But a ten percent correction here, obviously three thousand down

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Speaker 1: points get you back to November six, it gets you

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Speaker 1: back to the second week of August, and it's just

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Speaker 1: beneath the peaky peak we'd never see again Valentine's Day

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Speaker 1: pre pandemic. I mean, the only thing I can say constructive, Paul,

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Speaker 1: from my entry point is a ten percent correction gives

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Speaker 1: me beneath the nirvana of Valentine's Day. So, Chris, how

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Speaker 1: about for the for the folks that feel like maybe

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Speaker 1: they've missed the market? Who would that be? What's your

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Speaker 1: advice for those folks? Chris? Yeah, I think it's tough.

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Speaker 1: We all point to dollar cost averaging, we point the seasonality,

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Speaker 1: we point to the calendar. I think use the capital

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Speaker 1: markets as your friend. I know that sounds like it's

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Speaker 1: easy to do. It's not. But if you're disciplined and

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Speaker 1: you actually point to week periods in the market, as

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Speaker 1: Thomas suggesting, you know, don't wait for that large invitation

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Speaker 1: to the so called party, wait for the small invitation

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Speaker 1: and figure out what your target is. If your target

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Speaker 1: here at sixty deployed to three on weekdays, week weeks

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Speaker 1: over the course of the first quarter, and from our

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Speaker 1: perspective we see the Maverick bull market. We call it

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Speaker 1: a Maverick bull market continuing because it's independently thinking. And

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Speaker 1: that's what, from our perspective, is the more what I

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Speaker 1: would say, expective way to deploy money into the market. Chris,

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Speaker 1: as you think it's so much for the Marylynch and

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Speaker 1: Bank of American Private Bank. Thanks for listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg radio