Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg weekly
Speaker 1: market podcast. I'm Sara pan Zack, or reporter on the
Speaker 1: Cross Asset team, and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor
Speaker 1: on the Markets team. This week on the show, maybe
Speaker 1: it's just me, but this week has felt like a month.
Speaker 1: Stock swings of at least five have become the norm,
Speaker 1: with trading halts going off left and right, bonds aren't
Speaker 1: necessarily providing the hedge that they should, and liquidity is
Speaker 1: being called into question. It's not just you, Sarah. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's good to know. I've got to say I'm exhausted,
Speaker 1: and I think we all are. I will say very
Speaker 1: often it is just you, I think in this case,
Speaker 1: in this case, it's not just you. I think. The
Speaker 1: craziest thing I saw in markets, I'm just gonna get
Speaker 1: it out of the way, was everything this week. It
Speaker 1: was just there's no avoiding it. But I have to
Speaker 1: give an extra special thank you to our guests this
Speaker 1: week for actually making it out into the world during
Speaker 1: this uh, this craziness we're saying and showing up today
Speaker 1: for the podcast. Returning to the show, Lauren Goodwin. She's
Speaker 1: an economist and multi asset portfolio strategist at New York
Speaker 1: Life Investments, Lauren. If I sneeze, it's allergies. I swear
Speaker 1: to God, you know what, My allergies are really bad.
Speaker 1: Every time I have a little tickle in my throat.
Speaker 1: I'm worried about the social ramifications of clearing Well. No, seriously,
Speaker 1: you have to you have to think about if this
Speaker 1: starts running into hay fever season. I mean, God help
Speaker 1: us all. So you get judged on the side of
Speaker 1: the straight now, if you sneeze, if you just look
Speaker 1: a little bit off, people are judging. Yes, I'm judging
Speaker 1: you right now, Sarah, I'm judging everyone. You're all a
Speaker 1: little suspicious to me. Every microphone I sit in front
Speaker 1: of them like, wait a minute, who is that this?
Speaker 1: Before but also joining us on the show, first time
Speaker 1: guest on the show, market Live's own Creaty Goopta Creaty.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. So you're welcome.
Speaker 1: Learn Let's start with you. Um now, you're a strategist
Speaker 1: and an economist. I feel like the big question is
Speaker 1: is a recession pretty much inevitable right now? I mean,
Speaker 1: is it a done deal by now? Yeah? I think
Speaker 1: so um there, it's it's interesting the way that you
Speaker 1: put it. You're a strategist and an economist, but there's
Speaker 1: no economy and no strategy to work with right now exactly. Yeah.
Speaker 1: You know, look, um, I think that, Um. One of
Speaker 1: the really really interesting things, Um, if we can take
Speaker 1: a step back from everything that's happening right now, is
Speaker 1: just how unreliable signal economic data is going to give
Speaker 1: us upcoming. So recession, no recession, I mean, look around,
Speaker 1: it's it's death. It feels almost certain that we will
Speaker 1: have recession or recession like circumstances here in the US,
Speaker 1: and even if they're transitory, they could they could be
Speaker 1: quite severe. What's going to be really interesting is we're
Speaker 1: not going to be able to tell what the official
Speaker 1: read on that is. I mean, you look at the
Speaker 1: economic data that's come in the amazing jobs report for
Speaker 1: example last week. Who cares it was before the virus.
Speaker 1: But also if you can think to the other side
Speaker 1: of this, because we will come to the other side eventually,
Speaker 1: we're not going to trust bad data because it was oh,
Speaker 1: you know, from before things got better, and we might
Speaker 1: get you know, a really brief, nice big bang of
Speaker 1: pent up demand, but no one will trust that either,
Speaker 1: because it's just the pent up demand. So I think
Speaker 1: it's going to be a year before we get a
Speaker 1: reliable signal from economic data. Doesn't mean that we won't
Speaker 1: still have useful clues. Um, But recession, no recession. I mean,
Speaker 1: the biggest indicator I'm using right now is my eyes
Speaker 1: looking what's going on. And I'll give you a statistic.
Speaker 1: This week, we put out a story, um, and it's
Speaker 1: just some food for thought. Since the SMP five hundreds inception,
Speaker 1: there have been thirteen bear markets, So thirteen times when
Speaker 1: we fell from a record too below as we have
Speaker 1: this week, and and only two of those experiences did
Speaker 1: a recession not come after. Um. So sure markets sell off,
Speaker 1: we get corrections a lot, but it's pretty rare to
Speaker 1: actually get this bear market and na see a recession.
Speaker 1: And with that, Lauren, I saw in your notes that
Speaker 1: you sent over to us, you had a line and
Speaker 1: you said, by the dip is dead. And it sure
Speaker 1: feels that way. Um, We've just had day after day
Speaker 1: of extreme pressure. But but why do you say that
Speaker 1: and why do you think we feel that way right now?
Speaker 1: I think that one of the really really interesting developments
Speaker 1: in markets right now is um or changes perhaps is
Speaker 1: just in the last ten years we've gotten really used
Speaker 1: to buy the dip, just the idea that if you
Speaker 1: had a really bad week, UM, that there was always
Speaker 1: a reason to think positively as long as things weren't
Speaker 1: going really really badly. Right, We've had monetary policy almost
Speaker 1: always stepping in when we've hit roadblocks, UM mid cycle slowdowns,
Speaker 1: we can always justify markets moving down. Meanwhile, over the
Speaker 1: course of that ten years, profit conditions have been decelerating,
Speaker 1: if not deteriorating. We are late cycle, and so when
Speaker 1: I'm looking at you know, let's say three weeks ago,
Speaker 1: valuations are really high. All these late cycle dynamics are
Speaker 1: in play. We've been defensively positioned in our portfolio for
Speaker 1: six months saying, look, it's probably worth it even if
Speaker 1: we're a year early, because at some point we'll get
Speaker 1: a catalyst. I did not know that coronavirus was going
Speaker 1: to be the catalyst, but I'm not I'm not a
Speaker 1: buyer until I see a real reason for durable upside,
Speaker 1: and you know, case volumes still rising, UM credit markets
Speaker 1: still figuring this out. I don't that catalyst will certainly come,
Speaker 1: but it's it's not right now. Well, it was fascinating
Speaker 1: on Thursday. UM, you know, so much stress has been
Speaker 1: centered in the dollar funding markets UM, as well as
Speaker 1: the credit markets. But but really a lot of stress
Speaker 1: in the in the dollar uh you know cruss uh
Speaker 1: currency basis swap type of thing which don't ask me
Speaker 1: to even explain them, but I know there's stress there.
Speaker 1: I can't I've I've have it on good authority that
Speaker 1: they're stressed there, even though I can't quite explain it.
Speaker 1: And then you see the FED come out with really
Speaker 1: this surprise bazooka, a five hundred billion dollars worth of
Speaker 1: REPO operations UM effective the same day and spread out
Speaker 1: across the curve. So we can finally put that is
Speaker 1: a QI or is it not QI? Debates sort of
Speaker 1: a bed. I mean, I think this is much more
Speaker 1: like QUI than than what they're doing before. And you
Speaker 1: did see a pop in the smp F. I found
Speaker 1: it was like six percent off the lows, but then
Speaker 1: immediately for ten minutes ten minutes, and then you see
Speaker 1: headlines from Italy with a dramatic increases of cases and
Speaker 1: deaths and and right back down and I you know,
Speaker 1: I feel like the government in some ways, that the
Speaker 1: FED at least is getting a bad rap because there's
Speaker 1: only so much they can do. I mean, you can't
Speaker 1: repair this economic damage with monetary policy right now. I mean,
Speaker 1: is there you know, and and and the same as
Speaker 1: to some degree I think true of the federal government.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're going to throw everything they can at it,
Speaker 1: presumably that we have this really dysfunctional political situation which
Speaker 1: might make that impossible. I mean, it's just all hope
Speaker 1: loss basically as far as the putting a floor under
Speaker 1: equities with either monetary or fiscal policy, no, no, no, Um,
Speaker 1: it might feel that way for another few weeks. And
Speaker 1: I think that what we will get in the next
Speaker 1: few weeks is exactly what you're describing policy and and
Speaker 1: and hopefully in certain cases, really good policy, coordinated policy
Speaker 1: will reach the market in a way that is positive.
Speaker 1: And until we see geographic spread and case members of
Speaker 1: this virus decline, it just won't meet anything. And I
Speaker 1: think we actually need both of those things, um to
Speaker 1: go right to start to put a floor. And again,
Speaker 1: I think it will take a couple of weeks, if
Speaker 1: not longer, but but we will. We will get there.
Speaker 1: All hope is not lost in the short term though.
Speaker 1: We're playing this market very tactically. Um. It's interesting someone
Speaker 1: asked me earlier today, you know what's if you're talking
Speaker 1: to a long term investor, what do you tell them?
Speaker 1: And it's just honker down. You know, you gotta you
Speaker 1: have to take what you got, and what we have
Speaker 1: for now is is going to be these ebbs and flows,
Speaker 1: and if you're getting eight percent swings within a day,
Speaker 1: that's that's what you have to work with. Now. When
Speaker 1: we do see that decline in case volume, declining, geographic
Speaker 1: spread and policy that's meant to sustain that positive outcome,
Speaker 1: that's when we're we'll get back into the markets, but
Speaker 1: it'll probably still be in a really targeted way, looking
Speaker 1: at cyclicals for example, to to capture that upside, and
Speaker 1: it might not last long. We're just there's so much
Speaker 1: uncertainty around every element of this market that you've got
Speaker 1: to play a day by day. Yeah, everyone's already wondering, well,
Speaker 1: maybe it will subside a little bit in the summer,
Speaker 1: but then you have to worry about a reoccurrence in
Speaker 1: the fall. I guess obviously, you know, events last weekend
Speaker 1: really accelerated this sell off as far as the this
Speaker 1: oil price war that we've seen. Um, you know, Saudi
Speaker 1: Arabia came out over the weekend and drastically lowered their
Speaker 1: selling prices, said they were gonna, you know, pump a
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of oil. Russia kind of responding, Uh, curty,
Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you about the center you you
Speaker 1: follow this pretty closely. I mean, to me, this feels
Speaker 1: like a game of chicken between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Um,
Speaker 1: is that a good way to look at it? And
Speaker 1: I gotta say, you know, as we get near the
Speaker 1: end of the week here, it doesn't seem like anyone's blinking.
Speaker 1: I mean, is there any sign of when this you know,
Speaker 1: tremendous price war in oil could sort of end. Well,
Speaker 1: this has happened before, and that's what you really need
Speaker 1: to keep in mind here when you're talking about time
Speaker 1: frame and the sort of thing. Looking back, when we
Speaker 1: saw the U S. Shail market really boom, and and
Speaker 1: these players overseas face the same fears and have to
Speaker 1: go and try to flood the market and then cut
Speaker 1: once again to try to eliminate these players. So I
Speaker 1: would look to history for that. As far as the
Speaker 1: time frame goes, it doesn't look like this is going
Speaker 1: to end anytime soon. Once again, this is that second
Speaker 1: punch in the one to punch we saw for markets
Speaker 1: this week. This is really a key as we're going
Speaker 1: into just kind of an already recessionary period, already seeing
Speaker 1: a demand really drop anyways, and to see this price
Speaker 1: war potentially last for two or three months, which is
Speaker 1: what I'm hearing from strategist and traders, that could change
Speaker 1: the game. And it seems like, you know that, as
Speaker 1: you say, the show patch in the US is just
Speaker 1: caught in the middle. Um, it doesn't seem like there's
Speaker 1: anything they can do to punch back. I mean even
Speaker 1: President Trump politically, Uh, you know, he's got so much
Speaker 1: else on his plate that how can he push back
Speaker 1: at at both Russian and Saudi Arabia. Just seems like,
Speaker 1: you know, asking too much, even from someone like him
Speaker 1: who's not afraid to mix it up geo politically, right,
Speaker 1: And when we were seeing these headlines, I believe this
Speaker 1: really Our colleague Xavier Blasso around the Energy team actually
Speaker 1: tweeted this out and said that the real start of
Speaker 1: this price war was when Energy Minister Novak walked out
Speaker 1: of the OPEC meeting and said all OPEC producers are
Speaker 1: free to pump at will starting April first. I was
Speaker 1: really when all this sparked, really angered the saudis UH
Speaker 1: And the original reasoning for all of this was to
Speaker 1: attack the U S shale market, which has anyway kind
Speaker 1: of threatened market share and certainly threatened prices as well.
Speaker 1: So what we're seeing here is not just a term
Speaker 1: of kind of we need to flush out the US
Speaker 1: policy market, but there are geopolitics that play in the U. S.
Speaker 1: Is still very much a part of it. When those
Speaker 1: headlines came out, we were expecting a policy response from
Speaker 1: the US and and we didn't get much. Lauren, what's
Speaker 1: the effect of this oil price shock actually on the
Speaker 1: stock market and on the economy, Because sure, we had
Speaker 1: the worst day in the oil market since go for
Speaker 1: But then you think about energy companies a share of
Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred being at a record low around
Speaker 1: three per cent or so. But also at the same time,
Speaker 1: does don't oil companies make up a pretty large amount
Speaker 1: of capex spending? Like, how do you think about filtering
Speaker 1: with oil price shock into examining not just the equity markets,
Speaker 1: but also the economy at large. Well, we'll start with
Speaker 1: the economy. This is a net negative for the U
Speaker 1: S economy period um. I think normally, when you think
Speaker 1: about oil prices falling, you think about boost to the
Speaker 1: consumer through lower gas prices, especially in the in the
Speaker 1: U S where lots of people drive. But right now,
Speaker 1: when economic activity is already under stress from the virus,
Speaker 1: that positive impact can't really make its way through the
Speaker 1: way it normally would. If if half of us aren't
Speaker 1: going to work, then you're you don't get that benefit,
Speaker 1: if you don't have a job, then you then that
Speaker 1: that's just just such a small impact relative to some
Speaker 1: of the bigger picture things going on. Meanwhile, as you're mentioning,
Speaker 1: we have the energy sector under stress, especially energy services.
Speaker 1: You and and this, as you mentioned, is such a
Speaker 1: sector that's already taken such a beating. You know that
Speaker 1: of of everyone that was struggling before, this energy has
Speaker 1: had has such had such a hard couple of years.
Speaker 1: You don't have the business capex, you have the drag
Speaker 1: on confidence, and you have this depends on the day
Speaker 1: but seeming correlation and assets being drawn down that makes
Speaker 1: the equity market sell offs feel so much worse. It
Speaker 1: just to me seems like a clear indicator that we
Speaker 1: won't have the rebound in Q three that people were
Speaker 1: hoping for, even if the virus does improve a little bit. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you about that. That's sort of
Speaker 1: odd correlations that we're saying. You know, there's some points
Speaker 1: during this week where you know, treasure yields actually started
Speaker 1: rising off the lows. Gold has been really hit hard.
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the sort of easy way to
Speaker 1: to theorize about it is that again it's that dollar
Speaker 1: funding stress. There's margin calls being made. That's sort of thing.
Speaker 1: I mean, is it that simple? Do you think? You know?
Speaker 1: Because it really, in a way it feels like markets
Speaker 1: just aren't functioning the way they should be. I think
Speaker 1: it could be that simple. Hindsight will be on this one.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's there's there's a lot going on. I
Speaker 1: think not all of these we talk about cross currents
Speaker 1: such strong cross currents. Not everything is going to be
Speaker 1: a one to one. But you have fear, which is
Speaker 1: of course a big sell off. I think you probably
Speaker 1: do have some financial deleveraging where investment companies that are
Speaker 1: under stress or trying to make sales without making a
Speaker 1: big deal of things. And and so you're seeing some
Speaker 1: of what would normally be uncorrelated assets all moved down together. Um.
Speaker 1: But but for example, in the Wednesday of this week,
Speaker 1: that was very much the case, like the only things
Speaker 1: that did. Okay, we're orange juice, you know, in terms
Speaker 1: of financial assets, um, other days there has been a
Speaker 1: little bit more of what we would call normal market
Speaker 1: activityor normal risk off behavior. I don't know. To me,
Speaker 1: it seems that that financial de leveraging piece has to
Speaker 1: be a part of the story, otherwise we would see
Speaker 1: something consistent across these days. Orange juice, baby vitamin C is.
Speaker 1: The other one was CoCom which, yeah, maybe you're hungering
Speaker 1: down and need to feel better, so pretty I'm curious,
Speaker 1: is you know, you read a lot of the research
Speaker 1: and the news in the oil patch. Is anyone predicting
Speaker 1: sort of what the bottom in oil prices will be
Speaker 1: or you know, I know a lot depends on where
Speaker 1: what the sort of break even prices for the Saudi
Speaker 1: government's budget and the Russian government's budget. I mean, can
Speaker 1: we depend on those sort of break even levels of
Speaker 1: the budget to act as a floor. So we've dropped
Speaker 1: way past those. And what's key here to note is
Speaker 1: that the Saudis have been really struggling with this and
Speaker 1: why this is why they were trying to bring the
Speaker 1: Russians and and other OPEC members really to the table here,
Speaker 1: because they need that eighty dollar price level to just
Speaker 1: balance their budget. Uh and then of course for their
Speaker 1: RAMCO uh I p O as well, that's a big
Speaker 1: part of the story. The Russians can have a little
Speaker 1: bit more room to play with here because forty is
Speaker 1: their price limit, forty to forty two, depending on how
Speaker 1: you calculate. For U shale producers, that number before we
Speaker 1: hit bankruptcy. And I remember the U S shale patch
Speaker 1: is a private kind of sector, not necessarily a state
Speaker 1: owned one. Uh So when you're looking at the U
Speaker 1: S shale sector, those numbers were forty fifty, were way
Speaker 1: past them. And now the strategists and the traders I'm
Speaker 1: talking to her saying it could go down as low
Speaker 1: as ten dollars a barrel, which really puts all three
Speaker 1: players in troubles. So it's a matter of everyone's feeling pain.
Speaker 1: It's just who can who can who who kind of
Speaker 1: calls for mercy first? Right, right? Honestly, the only saving
Speaker 1: grace that I see in what's going on in the
Speaker 1: oil sector is that because we've experienced this rapid decline
Speaker 1: in oil prices so recently, you know, it's only been
Speaker 1: three or four years since we were experiencing this, we've
Speaker 1: tested these levels a little bit. We know that shale
Speaker 1: really starts to hurt before forty below forty five dollars barrel.
Speaker 1: It's not everybody. The range for u S show is
Speaker 1: really right. It's like between seven and eighty or something
Speaker 1: where companies are solvent, but at forty five level is
Speaker 1: really sensitive. We also know which countries start to really hurt,
Speaker 1: and so I think, while that's not good news that
Speaker 1: those dynamics are coming up again, it is a slightly
Speaker 1: more known unknown than the virus. I think if we
Speaker 1: were experiencing this for the first time like we did
Speaker 1: through or four years ago, our first times of recent memory,
Speaker 1: this would this would be even feel even more pandemic
Speaker 1: pandemonium than it does right now. And then before we
Speaker 1: get to the craziest thing, I have to ask you,
Speaker 1: Lauren about the credit markets, because it did feel like
Speaker 1: that was where we really saw a large change this week.
Speaker 1: I mean you think of Boeing drawing down a full
Speaker 1: amount of its thirteen point eight billion dollar credit line,
Speaker 1: Hilton drawing down its credit line. Then you have the
Speaker 1: likes of Blackstone and other firms telling their companies to
Speaker 1: draw down their credit lines to high old t d
Speaker 1: X breads jumping. I mean, what's the credit market telling
Speaker 1: you at this point? Is this at the point where
Speaker 1: people have to truly start worrying more because we are
Speaker 1: now seeing some signs of credit stress. I I'd say, so, um,
Speaker 1: we're not jumping yet. Um from a portfolio management perspective.
Speaker 1: And when it comes to are we truly in a
Speaker 1: credit event, I think we're three to four weeks away.
Speaker 1: But what we've seen and and this week was the
Speaker 1: first time we've started to see that pressure in the
Speaker 1: public markets, but in private credit and private equity markets,
Speaker 1: deal flow or the pipeline flow has dried up. It's
Speaker 1: been a couple of weeks. Makes sense, right, You can't
Speaker 1: travel to do due diligence. No one's gonna lend in
Speaker 1: this environment when you're not really sure what's going on.
Speaker 1: And so I think three to four weeks from now,
Speaker 1: we'll be looking at companies saying we're not going to
Speaker 1: be able to do deal flow until the fall. And
Speaker 1: that's when we start to be much more concerned about
Speaker 1: the knock on effects of this virus to the economy.
Speaker 1: Because if you can keep credit markets stable and secure,
Speaker 1: and you can and you can keep small busines, this
Speaker 1: is afloat to sort of wade through a couple of months.
Speaker 1: You're fine. If we're looking at four months of stress,
Speaker 1: stress and six months of defaults, that it's a different,
Speaker 1: different scenario. I love how relaxed you said, Oh, we're
Speaker 1: three or three or four weeks away from PRIMI major credit. Okay,
Speaker 1: but I do wonder. You know, there's been so many
Speaker 1: reforms put in place in the banking system, and we
Speaker 1: also you know, in the global financial crisis of of
Speaker 1: a two eight, the whole credit default swap market was
Speaker 1: this giant gorilla in the room that had uh grown,
Speaker 1: you know, way out of proportion to the point there,
Speaker 1: you know, there was much more default swaps out on
Speaker 1: certain types of debt than there was actually the debt.
Speaker 1: You know, it's like ensuring your house for ten times
Speaker 1: what it's worth. So I do feel like we've sort
Speaker 1: of eliminated some of those risks, you know the banking system. Uh,
Speaker 1: for all the complaints about all the uh, you know,
Speaker 1: liquidity requirements and reserves they've had to maintain. UM, I
Speaker 1: do feel like, you know, they're in a better shape
Speaker 1: to handle a stress. I don't think anyone had ever
Speaker 1: stress test for exactly what we're being faced with. I mean,
Speaker 1: when do we start worrying about the banks? You know,
Speaker 1: like five or six weeks my my father, My father
Speaker 1: called and asked me this question this morning, which I
Speaker 1: think is perhaps telling UM really interesting because you know
Speaker 1: Dad's and I tend to we were on the same wavelength. Well,
Speaker 1: that's not what I meant that people laugh at my job.
Speaker 1: Nobody said, Look, I have X number of months of
Speaker 1: payroll in the bank. I was feeling really good about that.
Speaker 1: Do I need to be really worried about that? And
Speaker 1: I think because of the regulations that have been put
Speaker 1: into place, the answer to that question is probably not.
Speaker 1: I think. I think that the banks are in a
Speaker 1: really good spot now where what that regulation has done
Speaker 1: is shift some of that activity into the private credit markets,
Speaker 1: which is why we're monitoring that space so closely. So UM.
Speaker 1: Where you did have leverage in the banking system, now
Speaker 1: you have leverage in in private credit and private equity.
Speaker 1: Now that doesn't mean every private equity or private credit
Speaker 1: provider is in bad shape. Quite the contrary. If you've
Speaker 1: been investing all along in UM, perhaps you know sectors
Speaker 1: that are less cyclical or less vulnerable to shocks, or
Speaker 1: just defineable value creation, then this is probably okay because
Speaker 1: those aren't going to be the companies that lose all
Speaker 1: of their cash flow and default in two months. UM
Speaker 1: companies that were struggling to create that casual in the
Speaker 1: first place. That that's where you start to have defaulse
Speaker 1: rise and so it's not going to be every credit
Speaker 1: provider out there but that, but that leverage has shifted
Speaker 1: outside of the banking system to other areas. That's where
Speaker 1: we need to be focused on from a crisis perspective. Sarah,
Speaker 1: what is the craziest thing you saw in markets this week?
Speaker 1: I have to say the craziest thing things that I
Speaker 1: have seen this week, or just all the trading halls.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll get all my my days straight here,
Speaker 1: but Sunday night futures go limit down. Monday night futures
Speaker 1: go limit up. Then we have uh CAST trading circuit
Speaker 1: breaker on Monday. Then Wednesday night futures go limit down.
Speaker 1: On Thursday, we have another circuit breaker and cast trading
Speaker 1: session too, and it's just been NonStop and it's crazy
Speaker 1: because these huge, huge moves have become such the norm.
Speaker 1: And and for me, I mean over the weekend, the
Speaker 1: last weekend, I was the one who had to sit
Speaker 1: around on Saturday and prepare a story just in case
Speaker 1: futures actually traded limit down, not thinking they actually would.
Speaker 1: And then Sunday night I was in working and helping
Speaker 1: cover Asia TV when they did go limit down, and
Speaker 1: it was just all it was all really just so surreal,
Speaker 1: um and I think it was just really eye opening
Speaker 1: as to what we were truly at for this week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'd say i'd be interesting for someone to study, you know,
Speaker 1: if these circuit breakers helped in any way. I mean
Speaker 1: at some point, you know, you know when the market
Speaker 1: is actually acting rationally irrational response to just a very
Speaker 1: irrational situation. Uh boy, it's it is a surreal feeling,
Speaker 1: all right. That's pretty good, Sarah. I'll give you. I'll
Speaker 1: give you high points for that one. I couldn't avoid it.
Speaker 1: Creat how about you? What do you have? So oil
Speaker 1: has been my my big one, seeing almost at de
Speaker 1: client in oil prices and then trading sideways and oil
Speaker 1: for the rest of the week, just on any potential
Speaker 1: news out of the Saudias, in the Russians despite those
Speaker 1: kind of limit downs, the limit up news that Sarah
Speaker 1: was talking about, and of course the FED and all
Speaker 1: REAP operations. Oil not budging after that massive moved. That's
Speaker 1: pretty good too. That's pretty good, Lauren. Are you come prepared?
Speaker 1: Did I have high hopes? So this has been a
Speaker 1: week where I'm not I'm not even asking could that
Speaker 1: number be real? When I flipped through numbers on my iPhone.
Speaker 1: It's just everything's crazy. Um. One of the things that
Speaker 1: y'all mentioned on the podcast last week is that, um,
Speaker 1: you know, look at purel on Amazon or whatever, and
Speaker 1: it's three Um a white belt just like airs seven
Speaker 1: seven dollars, seven dollars can be yours. That seems about
Speaker 1: seven dollars over price, right, That's the craziest thing I've
Speaker 1: seen in the market this week, that it costs. So
Speaker 1: no one wants belts, or maybe more people want white belts. Alla,
Speaker 1: Luke Cava more than we expect. Yeah, you're so so
Speaker 1: obviously that belt was priced lower before the podcast, and
Speaker 1: so you have boosted demand for white belts. Amazing. I
Speaker 1: think you win the craziest thing of the year with
Speaker 1: that one. That is you gotta love the paying attention
Speaker 1: to the podcast and the poor Luke he's not here
Speaker 1: to defend himself, but that's all right, that's right. This
Speaker 1: is going to make his month though. That is fantastic.
Speaker 1: Guess and uh, sir, remind the people about our hotline
Speaker 1: if if they've seen something crazy in the markets, they
Speaker 1: can call us. Do you have that number? I have
Speaker 1: that number handy is always um. You can always give
Speaker 1: us a call. That number is six four six three
Speaker 1: two four three four zero. And if you you have have
Speaker 1: seen anything crazy in this last week, because we're all
Speaker 1: sure that you have, or you have any questions, feel
Speaker 1: free to leave us a message and maybe we'll played
Speaker 1: on the show. Absolutely and feel free to call and
Speaker 1: tell us the craziest thing you saw. Lukawa where too.
Speaker 1: That's that's acceptable. Let me give you a couple of
Speaker 1: tweets from some of the listeners about the craziest things
Speaker 1: they've seen this week one guy at I'm assuming it's
Speaker 1: a guy at t J Beller on Twitter. Uh. The
Speaker 1: craziest thing he saw is that almost two thirds of
Speaker 1: all high yield energy issues are now trading at a
Speaker 1: thousand basis points over US treasuries. That is pretty amazing.
Speaker 1: So two thirds of the of the junk energy complex
Speaker 1: is trading at a full ten percentage points above treasuries.
Speaker 1: And then we had a couple of requests, uh from
Speaker 1: some other long time listeners. The head of the Chris
Speaker 1: Nag fan club, Eli Panamy, wrote in to say better yet,
Speaker 1: what has been saying this week? And then uh, a
Speaker 1: response came to him from j Y Squall at Twitter. Yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe this week it would be different to do what
Speaker 1: went fine good in the market. We got nothing for you, guys.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Don't forget the orange juice. The orange juice
Speaker 1: that's pretty good. Yeah. I have one one other thing.
Speaker 1: There's a down Jones long short market neutral portfolio of
Speaker 1: quality stacks um having its best streaks since two thousand
Speaker 1: and nine. That's pretty good. Yeah, so something Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: finally the long short hedge funds are having their day,
Speaker 1: I guess yeah, um yet not not too much great
Speaker 1: in the market. Hopefully by next week maybe we can
Speaker 1: share some positive things for you, I hope so yeah.
Speaker 1: Um but with that, hopefully things are looking up from here. Um.
Speaker 1: But Lauren Goodwin, pretty Gupta, thanks so much for coming
Speaker 1: on the show today What Goes Up. We'll be back
Speaker 1: next week. Until then, you can find it's on the
Speaker 1: Blueberg Terminal website and app or ever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: We'd love it if you took the time to rate
Speaker 1: interview the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can
Speaker 1: find us, and you can find us on Twitter. Follow
Speaker 1: me at at Sara Ponzack, Mike is a prey anonymous,
Speaker 1: and Kretty Koopta is at Kretty Kopta News. You can
Speaker 1: also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts. What Goes Up is
Speaker 1: produced by tober Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg podcast is
Speaker 1: Francesca Levie. Thanks for listening, See you next time.