1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 2: We begin this out with stocks slightly lower following the

3
00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,680
Speaker 2: biggest slid in three months as investors search for direction.

4
00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,040
Speaker 2: The Morgan Stanley, chairman and CEO of Ted Pig has

5
00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,000
Speaker 2: seen it. Oh and he joined us now for more Ted.

6
00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,320
Speaker 2: Good to see you, guys. Thanks for having me. I'd

7
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,560
Speaker 2: like to feel like to be feeling good, feeling pretty good.

8
00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:23,759
Speaker 2: You're not going to be in the speech in about

9
00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:25,520
Speaker 2: twenty eight minutes time, You're going to avoid that.

10
00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:27,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be with you, guys.

11
00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:30,520
Speaker 2: Let's talk about how things are set up for twenty six.

12
00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,840
Speaker 2: We've drawn a big distinction between the energy that's coming

13
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,199
Speaker 2: from European officials and the emotion they have about a

14
00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,559
Speaker 2: place like Greenland, and the optimism that people have for

15
00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 2: the broader US economy, particularly from bankers regarding the pipeline

16
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,280
Speaker 2: and the amount of debt issues we've seen over the

17
00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,240
Speaker 2: past few months. The dead end of writing that you've

18
00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 2: really benefited from, that's going to fund a lot of

19
00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,879
Speaker 2: the transition. How ammed up are you about the year ahead?

20
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,000
Speaker 3: Well, thanks for having me, guys. Great to see you.

21
00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,560
Speaker 4: I'm pretty amped up. You know, we had we had

22
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,520
Speaker 4: several years where the emine actor is going to get

23
00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:03,040
Speaker 4: going and then COVID happen and then rates roofed and

24
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:04,800
Speaker 4: it's taken a while for a ton glue.

25
00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,080
Speaker 3: But this kind of in this case.

26
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,400
Speaker 4: Literal noise speaks to c suite need to act, whether

27
00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,120
Speaker 4: it's to reglobalize or reorient where your operations are, who

28
00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 4: you want to do business with, and as long as

29
00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,360
Speaker 4: there's activity, we're busy. So crossboard or M and a

30
00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,959
Speaker 4: large cap M and A going to be important. AI

31
00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:24,840
Speaker 4: access an accelerant to that too. If you want to

32
00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,840
Speaker 4: actually get after their productivity gains and embedded in AI,

33
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:29,640
Speaker 4: you have to have the wherewithal to do it. And

34
00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,480
Speaker 4: if your market cap is thirty or forty billion, that's tough.

35
00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,040
Speaker 4: You know, how do you take a couple of points

36
00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:36,479
Speaker 4: off your income statement to do that year after year?

37
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,080
Speaker 4: But if you're two three hundred billion, maybe got a shot.

38
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,759
Speaker 4: So people are thinking bigger. And then the sponsors, as

39
00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,040
Speaker 4: you know, a couple thousand companies that have been sitting

40
00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 4: there that have a billion dollar market caps implied they

41
00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,200
Speaker 4: need to come. And then very importantly have these great

42
00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,200
Speaker 4: companies that have been private and over the last fifteen years,

43
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,360
Speaker 4: we've seen companies go public to defase options or effectively

44
00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,640
Speaker 4: be secondaries. You can actually see great companies that are

45
00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,000
Speaker 4: growth companies, some of them in the AI ecosystem.

46
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,600
Speaker 3: They want to go tap capital.

47
00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,240
Speaker 4: So for the investment bank, a great period and for

48
00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,440
Speaker 4: a wealth manager, leading wealth manager in the US and

49
00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,040
Speaker 4: the world, you want to allocate your capital efficiently.

50
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:09,760
Speaker 3: So very exciting.

51
00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:11,760
Speaker 2: Some pank some of those business lines. So let's just

52
00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,480
Speaker 2: pick up on the IPO pipeline the activity we could

53
00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 2: see later this year SpaceX, open AI. We're talking about

54
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,760
Speaker 2: some absolute monsters. Even the team have been historically quite

55
00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,280
Speaker 2: dominant in the tech sector. What are you doing right

56
00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:24,760
Speaker 2: now to prepare for that moment that might be in

57
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:25,280
Speaker 2: our future.

58
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,120
Speaker 4: Well, these companies, you know, you bank them for a

59
00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,720
Speaker 4: whole bunch of years and you get to know them.

60
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,680
Speaker 4: So there's a process, obviously the formal bag off process

61
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,280
Speaker 4: and then the go or no go decision.

62
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:38,680
Speaker 3: But typically the.

63
00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 4: Company has a pretty good idea of what it wants

64
00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,200
Speaker 4: to do ahead of time because it's selected its group.

65
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,800
Speaker 4: And the stakes are really high this round because as

66
00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:50,240
Speaker 4: you say, these the implied market caps these companies are enormous,

67
00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,560
Speaker 4: but also they are paradoxically they are very large but

68
00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:55,840
Speaker 4: also mega growers. They have, you know, some of them

69
00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,040
Speaker 4: have a little bit of a change the world feel

70
00:02:58,080 --> 00:02:59,840
Speaker 4: to them, so they could become must on.

71
00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:01,040
Speaker 3: I mean, one of the things that you.

72
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:02,880
Speaker 4: Guys have talked a lot about is so much of

73
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,919
Speaker 4: the equity base has become either beta or it's become

74
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,119
Speaker 4: kind of the seven or eight names. What if there's

75
00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,720
Speaker 4: some additional companies that three, four or five hundred billion

76
00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,240
Speaker 4: dollar market caps and trillion and a half dollars market

77
00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,920
Speaker 4: cap the active management community is I want to own that.

78
00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:17,640
Speaker 4: I want to own that from the time of the IPO.

79
00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,600
Speaker 4: So I think it's not just Wall Street getting to

80
00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,840
Speaker 4: know these companies. It's a whole bunch of investors who

81
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 4: have either backed into early rounds or want to be

82
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 4: there when the IPO comes.

83
00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,480
Speaker 1: When we were speaking with you a year ago in

84
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 1: these seats, you were talking about how it is going

85
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:32,080
Speaker 1: to be a great year for IPOs and M and A,

86
00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:33,840
Speaker 1: and it was for your bottom line.

87
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:34,880
Speaker 3: You had an incredible year.

88
00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,680
Speaker 1: There was, though, a lot of IPOs and a lot

89
00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,680
Speaker 1: of deals that got stymied by Liberation Day and policy uncertainty.

90
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,840
Speaker 1: What has to go right for some of these deals

91
00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 1: to come to fruish and open AI anthropic SpaceX Well.

92
00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 4: I think part of the reason that these companies are

93
00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:55,440
Speaker 4: so interesting to investors is they are not rushed to

94
00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,840
Speaker 4: go public, So there has to be an element of

95
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,000
Speaker 4: being patient if you're in an around the ecosystem. They

96
00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,240
Speaker 4: don't have to come in the first half of twenty six,

97
00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:04,720
Speaker 4: they come in the second half of twenty sixth they

98
00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 4: could even come in twenty seven. But they are drawing

99
00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,120
Speaker 4: a whole bunch of interest to names like them derivative plays,

100
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,240
Speaker 4: and the ecosystem is you sort of disaggregate the entire

101
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,479
Speaker 4: AI daisy chain where you want to play. So the

102
00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:20,600
Speaker 4: anticipation of the company going public almost as important as

103
00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,640
Speaker 4: the company itself coming. But whether they come least in

104
00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,040
Speaker 4: twenty six or twenty seven, they're going to come.

105
00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:26,880
Speaker 3: They're going to come.

106
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,080
Speaker 1: It's sort of a dissonance right now. When you talk

107
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,400
Speaker 1: to business leaders about how much enthusiasm there is for

108
00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,200
Speaker 1: deals and for energy in the US economy, and then

109
00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,560
Speaker 1: when you hear the policy makers, you hear uncertainty and

110
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 1: you hear sell America.

111
00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:40,279
Speaker 3: How do you square those.

112
00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,360
Speaker 1: Two narratives at a time where you do hear a

113
00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,240
Speaker 1: growing number of investors say they are diversifying away from

114
00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:46,039
Speaker 1: US assets.

115
00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:48,960
Speaker 3: I hear you guys talking about this a lot.

116
00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,640
Speaker 4: I think there are two separate phenomena, but they're not exclusive.

117
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 4: One is we got the arca history. You know, I've

118
00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:57,800
Speaker 4: gone on about the end of the end of history

119
00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 4: and that things would get going again. Nation States would

120
00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,160
Speaker 4: be battling for a Gemini and kind of trying to

121
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,680
Speaker 4: win out on the rise and fall nations. That's just

122
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,760
Speaker 4: a historical fact that kind of got there was an

123
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,640
Speaker 4: interregment between Berlin Wall and COVID. We're actually back to

124
00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,279
Speaker 4: the balance of human history as we've all studied, and

125
00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,200
Speaker 4: that means there's going to be the kind of stuff

126
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,400
Speaker 4: that we are living through right now. It's just been

127
00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 4: a while, and I don't know necessarily that that is

128
00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,640
Speaker 4: something we should expect to go away anytime soon. There's

129
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,599
Speaker 4: going to be renationalizing nationalizing, and that means in some

130
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,520
Speaker 4: case they'll be higher country risk, They'll be maybe pockets

131
00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:38,840
Speaker 4: of iniquity, there may be opportunistic transactions or allocations that happened.

132
00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,760
Speaker 4: But after twenty years of financial oppression, we're back to

133
00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:43,160
Speaker 4: live markets and.

134
00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 3: Live nation states. That's here.

135
00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,080
Speaker 4: But at the same time you have US capital markets

136
00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,240
Speaker 4: which are more than half the capital stock. And the

137
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:53,320
Speaker 4: reality is very basically as we know, corporate health is excellent,

138
00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,480
Speaker 4: consumer health at the top end is excellent, and obviously

139
00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 4: the administration is getting after how for the bottom half

140
00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,080
Speaker 4: of the k earnings as you.

141
00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 3: Know, grew eight percent this year. They could grow in.

142
00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,160
Speaker 4: The mid teams next year. That's double the long term average.

143
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 4: That's pretty good. So good corporate, good, consumer, excellent capital

144
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,960
Speaker 4: markets and easier fed the lowered by seventy five.

145
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 3: Maybe there's more to go.

146
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,640
Speaker 4: Maybe it's a demand driven twenty twenty six, in which

147
00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:23,919
Speaker 4: case the Fed doesn't have to move. We have good inflation,

148
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,760
Speaker 4: we keep on powering forward growth. Or maybe it's supply

149
00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,360
Speaker 4: side where they're spending but there isn't the same kind

150
00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,600
Speaker 4: of job creation. Then the federal help out. So they're

151
00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,800
Speaker 4: downside cases. But just in the main, oh, and the

152
00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,120
Speaker 4: tailwinds of deregulation and the bill are kicking in. It

153
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,320
Speaker 4: kind of is hard to argue against the twenty six

154
00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:45,359
Speaker 4: US led growth case.

155
00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:46,520
Speaker 3: Now we can get a.

156
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,719
Speaker 4: Debate about where ASID prices should be, but in terms

157
00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:50,760
Speaker 4: of just two years ago were talking about recession.

158
00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:51,920
Speaker 3: Last year we weren't sure.

159
00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,799
Speaker 4: Because the administrations come in, we're not talking about that today.

160
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,960
Speaker 4: So for our business, very simply, we write tickets to

161
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,800
Speaker 4: kind of two times GDP nominal and so if you

162
00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:02,440
Speaker 4: think about our Wealth and Investment Bank, if we're going

163
00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,960
Speaker 4: to grow you know, five ten percent on a two

164
00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,800
Speaker 4: times basis nominally, that should be pretty good for our

165
00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:08,800
Speaker 4: business for doing our job.

166
00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:12,600
Speaker 2: Corporate health is very good, it's excellent. Software and health

167
00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,200
Speaker 2: is questionable. Can we talk about that right? The move

168
00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,040
Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours, the life market stuff,

169
00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,320
Speaker 2: let's get into that. The move in Japan at the

170
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,679
Speaker 2: long end of the curve, is that a warning shot?

171
00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 2: Is that the start of something bigger?

172
00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,920
Speaker 4: Well, I mean this Japan trade has been talked about forever,

173
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:33,200
Speaker 4: and I would expect that in a lot of you know,

174
00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:38,720
Speaker 4: highly indebted countries, you know, off the Liz Trust moment

175
00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,320
Speaker 4: where the demographics are poor and you don't have the

176
00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 4: wherewithal our FIAT to kind of work your way through that,

177
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:47,240
Speaker 4: there could be some vulnerability.

178
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:48,480
Speaker 3: So what does that mean?

179
00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,080
Speaker 4: That means if we're sort of do our economics meets

180
00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:53,560
Speaker 4: you know, poly side thing I think that means you

181
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,760
Speaker 4: want to get closer to places where you can act

182
00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:00,760
Speaker 4: in your joint economic interest, and I think the Japanese

183
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,480
Speaker 4: examples one that we should continue to pay attention to.

184
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised if we see pockets of that

185
00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,640
Speaker 4: now and then when you know, there's a little talk

186
00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,480
Speaker 4: of the bouncyet looks lousy, but we're going to inject

187
00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,080
Speaker 4: a little stimulus, and let's see if anyone notices, Yeah,

188
00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,200
Speaker 4: they noticed, so you know, you sort of have to

189
00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:19,800
Speaker 4: you know, then you just it's you know, it's a

190
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,800
Speaker 4: trial balloon. It gets pulled back, and that's probably healthy

191
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,280
Speaker 4: for markets. You know, you see a lot of that's

192
00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,840
Speaker 4: been bought back today. But that's different than the US

193
00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,480
Speaker 4: Treasury phenomenon. Yeah, that that that's been that's been hugely overblown.

194
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 4: The reality is that when we did this a year ago,

195
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,600
Speaker 4: the Treasury secretary is you know of anyone was talking

196
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,520
Speaker 4: about the ten year being so important to keep an

197
00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,800
Speaker 4: eye on. I think the ten years around four fifty seven,

198
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,600
Speaker 4: four fifty five, four sixty. Now it's a four twenty five,

199
00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,680
Speaker 4: four to thirty, so the ten years doing his job,

200
00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:46,520
Speaker 4: there's some steepening.

201
00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,640
Speaker 3: Yes, it's probably healthy. So I do think there's a.

202
00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,719
Speaker 4: Conflation between kind of US Treasury phenomenon and the world,

203
00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,680
Speaker 4: and I think there's a difference, and you know, we

204
00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,480
Speaker 4: just have to continue to highlight the difference very quickly.

205
00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:00,880
Speaker 5: Ted because you spend time you grew up in Venezuela,

206
00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,119
Speaker 5: New world. Now are you planning to maybe help facilitate

207
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:04,960
Speaker 5: companies go back in?

208
00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 3: I'd not prep for that question. Uh, you lived in

209
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

210
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,679
Speaker 5: Interested because you have a different take, probably than every

211
00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,640
Speaker 5: other CEO walking around this forum.

212
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,640
Speaker 4: Well, ven as well as an extraordinary place, has a

213
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,840
Speaker 4: proud but now in recent decades, very troubled history.

214
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,200
Speaker 3: But is uh you know, uh, if you know your.

215
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:32,000
Speaker 4: Monroe doctrine critical and has albeit as you've talked about

216
00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:32,480
Speaker 4: at length.

217
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,520
Speaker 3: Uh, it's it's it's more sulphuric, but very.

218
00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,720
Speaker 4: High, uh vast quantities of of oil beneath the ground.

219
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:41,920
Speaker 4: So do I think Venezuela is going to be relevant?

220
00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,000
Speaker 4: I think Latin America is going to be relevant. I

221
00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,560
Speaker 4: think the hemisphere is going to be relevant, and its

222
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,559
Speaker 4: sort of thinking around how wants to get closer while

223
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,760
Speaker 4: maintaining its own uh, you know, political and social independence

224
00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,120
Speaker 4: from the US, but I think coming together of some

225
00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,319
Speaker 4: places may make some sense and maybe in the broader

226
00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:01,079
Speaker 4: economic interest.

227
00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 3: Back to the previous question.

228
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,640
Speaker 2: That it was a fantastic conswer, thank you. I've got

229
00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:06,880
Speaker 2: one more that's just not a landmine. There was some

230
00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,439
Speaker 2: news earlier about Deutschebank, and I just want to breathe

231
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,360
Speaker 2: some life into that story. And essentially the Treasury Secretary

232
00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,000
Speaker 2: came out there was some research that he didn't like,

233
00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,760
Speaker 2: and according to him, the Deutsche Bank CEO has turned

234
00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 2: around and said, I don't stand by that research. That's

235
00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,320
Speaker 2: basically the point. Is it difficult for the research department

236
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,840
Speaker 2: of Morgan Stanley to say what they think in an

237
00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,160
Speaker 2: environment like this one? And I asked this question because

238
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:34,960
Speaker 2: I know some tremendous individuals at Morgan Stanley in research

239
00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,400
Speaker 2: and they are all highly intelligent, capable and have their

240
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,440
Speaker 2: own thoughts about where they think we are in this

241
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:42,599
Speaker 2: moment right now. But is it difficult in the C

242
00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,000
Speaker 2: suite to allow them just to go out their full throat,

243
00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:47,480
Speaker 2: full thrott or full blooded and just say what they

244
00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,000
Speaker 2: really think about this moment?

245
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:49,800
Speaker 3: Absolutely not.

246
00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,760
Speaker 4: I'm not at a piece of research at my desk

247
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,959
Speaker 4: for a yellow light or a no go. I think

248
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,600
Speaker 4: what gets a little tricky is these institutions also had

249
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 4: desk analysts. I don't know if this one came out

250
00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,280
Speaker 4: of the research department or maybe a desk analyst sitting

251
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,520
Speaker 4: in one of the divisions. But to answer your question directly,

252
00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,880
Speaker 4: we want we celebrate broad opinion, I do think, but

253
00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,960
Speaker 4: to give to give not kind of the standard answer.

254
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,360
Speaker 4: Part of the reason you like our research is because

255
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,840
Speaker 4: it's not just regurgitation.

256
00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:22,640
Speaker 3: Because we all have a bloomer terminal.

257
00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,120
Speaker 4: Okay, so it has to have some kind of value

258
00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,720
Speaker 4: add but it doesn't have to just be provocation for

259
00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,160
Speaker 4: its own sake. So we have industry leaders, we have

260
00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:36,000
Speaker 4: sector leaders. We have Seth Carpenter, who you pointed out.

261
00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 4: I was watching you talk to him, and I was

262
00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:43,280
Speaker 4: and that was quite a moment when I looked Starbucks

263
00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,880
Speaker 4: all over my suit. So thanks for that.

264
00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:46,440
Speaker 3: That was excellent.

265
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:48,440
Speaker 4: You had at least one viewer that day, and that

266
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:53,640
Speaker 4: was me, so and Seth. But the answer is the

267
00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:57,640
Speaker 4: independence of research is important. We've invested in it for

268
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,320
Speaker 4: all these years that haven't been said sort of writing

269
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:05,120
Speaker 4: research to just sort of provoke and kind of get

270
00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,520
Speaker 4: your warhol moment. I mean that is not really fair

271
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:12,600
Speaker 4: to the institution either, and it puts the particular government

272
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,480
Speaker 4: or whomever in an awkward spot.

273
00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:15,439
Speaker 3: Because they read the research.

274
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:17,520
Speaker 4: So I think there's got to be a balance between

275
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,840
Speaker 4: independent integrity and what you're writing and writing something that

276
00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 4: actually is meant to add value and bring intellectual capital

277
00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:24,480
Speaker 4: to the fore some of.

278
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:25,480
Speaker 2: The Joan cleanand Bill.

279
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:28,760
Speaker 3: I didn't actually split it up. I just swallowed and smiled.

280
00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:30,800
Speaker 2: Thank you, sir, thank you very much.

281
00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:31,559
Speaker 3: Thank you Ted Pick.

282
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,280
Speaker 2: There the moment Stanley Chairman and c e out