1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 2: What's going on? 3 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 3: Everybody, Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. Today we have 4 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 3: our UFC Fight Night betting previews. 5 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: Santos v. Hill is your main. 6 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 3: Event at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. We get to 7 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 3: the main event, of course, we'll get there momentarily. Also 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 3: coming up on the pod, which, by the way, when 9 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 3: we do a UFC it's every Friday as the schedule 10 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 3: plays out. Based on the schedule, we come and join 11 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 3: you on Friday to get you ready for Saturday. Favorite 12 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 3: underdog plays Fight of the night, favorite props. We'll get 13 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 3: a DFS breakdown and also best bets. Sean Zarillo, Billy Ward, 14 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 3: the usual crew for this show. Brendan Glasheen with you 15 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 3: as well here on the Action Network Podcast. 16 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: Let's dive right in. 17 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 3: Hill Santos is our main event this week, Seanzrillo, how 18 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 3: are you? And of course we do this. We don't 19 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 3: just talk about who we like to pick on the 20 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 3: money line. There's an angle to this. So what's the 21 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,639 Speaker 3: angle on the main event for the best betting angle? 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would lean to Hill on the money line 23 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 4: around minus three hundred, even as a big favorite, I 24 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 4: view him as the better fighter on the feet seven years, younger, 25 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 4: better cardio, taller, longer, probably hits harder, and he's the 26 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 4: natural light heavyweight where Santos used to compete at one 27 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 4: eighty five, where he did his best work. Has not 28 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 4: looked like his former self since returning from double knee 29 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: surgery after fighting John Jones. He still is durable. He 30 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 4: has not been KOed since twenty eighteen, but he also 31 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 4: hasn't scored a finish of his own in a while either, 32 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 4: and he has been much less aggressive since coming back 33 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 4: from injury, as while seeming very tepid, unwilling to engage, 34 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 4: particularly in the pocket, staying on the outside of the cage, 35 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 4: moving around easy to take down to not expect he'll 36 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 4: to take him down. Hill has also shown some grappling 37 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 4: deficiencies of his own, as arm snap by Paul Craig 38 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 4: has been proven to be able to take him down 39 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 4: be taken down in the past. Do not really see 40 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 4: Santos wrestling him, but that probably is Santos's best path 41 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 4: to victory is to probably grapple offensively, because I think 42 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 4: that's where Jamal Hill has his biggest weakness. But I 43 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 4: think eventually he'll takes over with cardio, can gass him 44 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 4: out with pressure, can overwhelm him with pressure. Curious to 45 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 4: see how Hill approaches the fight. If he's just going 46 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 4: to kind of force the issue and swing wildly and 47 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 4: try to get another early finish, because he's had a 48 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 4: number of early finishes, especially of late. But he's proven 49 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 4: that he can go three rounds, he can go five rounds. 50 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 4: He can rack up one hundred significant strikes in three rounds. 51 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 4: So I think he eventually takes over this fight to 52 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 4: a pretty significant degree, especially late, But based on how 53 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 4: he's been fighting of late, he may just come out 54 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 4: quickly and try to score a knockout. So the way 55 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: that I'm betting this, the way I see value is 56 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 4: the overs, the over one and a half, two and 57 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 4: a half, maybe even the fight to go to a 58 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 4: decision around plus three hundred. I projected that at about 59 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 4: plus two to fifty, so slight value there, and also 60 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 4: Hill by decision at around five to one six to one. 61 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 4: I would make that line closer to plus four hundred, 62 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 4: So would bet the overs and the Hill by decision props. 63 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 4: If I'm playing this fight, I'm still not sure one 64 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 4: hundred percent how I'm playing it. Because he'll, as I mentioned, 65 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 4: could just kind of come out and force the issue 66 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 4: and create a brawl and force one of them to 67 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 4: get knocked out rather quickly. So definitely tepid, just based 68 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 4: on how Hill might approach this fight, especially coming off 69 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 4: of a string of early knockouts. But I think the 70 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,839 Speaker 4: value side is in the overs and in the fight 71 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 4: to go on. 72 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 3: Santos on the money line is plus two fifty. MMA 73 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 3: analyst at Action Network former MMA fighter Billy Ward here 74 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 3: as well. Billy, how are you playing the main event? 75 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm saying that a little bit definitely than Sean, 76 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 5: but kind of along the same lines. I just think 77 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 5: with it being a five round fight, I have a 78 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 5: really hard time seeing this one go all five rounds. 79 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 5: I think he'll gets it done before that, and it's 80 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 5: just a way better line. He'll buy tkos minus one forty. 81 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 5: There's almost zero chance he submits, submits him, or submits anyone. 82 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 5: So if you're gonna play inside the distance, you might 83 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 5: as well get the better price on the knockout, and 84 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 5: that's minus one forty. And mostly with Sean, I think 85 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 5: like it's likelier to happen late. You know, Santos has 86 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 5: been complaining a little bit about some of his opponents 87 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 5: not wanting to get in fist fights with him and 88 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 5: not wanting to strike back and forth. So I think 89 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 5: Santos is gonna be bringing it forward a little bit. 90 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 5: I don't think he's gonna try to offensively wrestle. With 91 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 5: that said, every fighter says that every time, how they 92 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 5: just want to stand and bang. If he's smart, he 93 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 5: wouldn't actually do that against Hill. But I really think 94 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 5: he'll has the best striking in the division, or at 95 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 5: least the best boxing, and you know, he's a really 96 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 5: good counter striker. So if Santos is really coming forward, 97 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 5: I think he eventually finds him and puts him out late. 98 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 5: So yeah, I don't hate the over one and a 99 00:04:57,880 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 5: half over two and a half, but I think he'll 100 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 5: finish it on a little bit later onto this fight, 101 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 5: and minus one forty for his TKO line. I think 102 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 5: if he wins it, it's you know, eighty ninety percent 103 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 5: chance that he wins it by knockout. 104 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: So that's why I'm playing. 105 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I was thinking hell like round three, four five, 106 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 4: which is why those one and a half. So those 107 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 4: two and a half were interesting to me. But I'm 108 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 4: kind of like scared to play to go to the 109 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 4: decision to play hill by decision at bigger plus numbers. 110 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 4: So maybe the over one and a half at juice 111 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 4: minus one fifty or so is the best way to 112 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 4: play it for me. 113 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 3: Okay, scanning the card and we also keep our eyes 114 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 3: on the pre limbs for those of you knew to 115 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 3: the to the podcast when we break down UFC, so 116 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 3: we go through the whole card, in this case all 117 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 3: twelve fights. 118 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 4: Favorite underdog play zerolo. Yeah, this is an awful card. 119 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 4: I'm actually not going to be playing a lot of 120 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 4: money lines. I'm mostly going to be playing totals. The 121 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 4: one underdog at a juicy number who I think is 122 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 4: the best chance of winning is Jason Witt around plus 123 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 4: two hundred. He should be winning more minutes here against 124 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 4: the Contender series debutante josh Quinlan Quinn lone undefeated amateurs 125 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 4: professionally one hundred percent knockout rate, but definitely a guy 126 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 4: you can wrestle get on top of. He's been able 127 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 4: to reverse positions against lesser grapplers scramble back to his feet. 128 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 4: Wit has pretty good top control and he does a 129 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,279 Speaker 4: lot of damage from top two. So if Wick just 130 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 4: grapples immediately, which he should, I think he can get 131 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 4: takedowns and certainly win minutes here. The problem is he 132 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,239 Speaker 4: may have the worst chin in the UFC. This guy, 133 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 4: every time you touch his chin just goes on chicken legs, 134 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 4: looks like he's on skates. So he may be winning 135 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 4: this fight up until the moment he loses. He may 136 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 4: get an early takedown, Quinlan gets back up, hits him 137 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 4: once in the fight's over. He may even win the 138 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 4: first two rounds and then can't get a takedown on 139 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 4: the third because he's tired and get knocked down with 140 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 4: the first punch that lands clean. So Quinnlan is taller, 141 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 4: has the reach advantage, he's the better striker, and I 142 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 4: think he has solid takedown defense. But I do like 143 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 4: what's wrestling. I can certainly see Wit winning this fight, 144 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 4: but probably my preferred way to play this fight is 145 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 4: just about the under two and a half rounds at 146 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 4: minus one seventy, the fight doesn't go to a decision. 147 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 4: At minus two hundred, I could see Wi ground and 148 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 4: pounding him to a Wane, could see him getting a 149 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 4: submission on the map, or most likely Quinnlan just connects 150 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 4: ones and knocks him out of the feet. 151 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 2: I'm happy Zarrillo got that in there. 152 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 3: I was curious when he'd mentioned that some of these 153 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 3: money lines are really ugly on this card, so that 154 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 3: we got to that eventually. 155 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 2: That's good, Billy. How about yourself favorite underdog. 156 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 5: Play real quick? I do really like Sean's steak. Just 157 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 5: wanted to mention Quinnlan was suspended for testing positive for 158 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 5: a band substance after his Contender series about and you know, 159 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 5: having fought in some regional scenes before. Not all these 160 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 5: states are really good about testing for that. So when 161 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 5: you see a guy test positive the very first time 162 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 5: he fights on a ZUFA owned promotion, that raises some 163 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 5: red flags for me. So you know, whether he was 164 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 5: using stuff the whole time or it was truly just 165 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 5: you know, the tainted supplement that everybody says. I don't know, 166 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 5: but that's another point towards WIT. I think when a 167 00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 5: guy the first time he probably faced a real streng 168 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 5: a drug test immediately failed it and was suspended for 169 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 5: nine months. So but yeah, anyway, moving on, my favorite 170 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 5: underdog is Miranda Granger. She's at plus one to eighty 171 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 5: five on MGM is the best line. Now, this will 172 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 5: be her first fight back after having a kid, and 173 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 5: we talked about this a little bit. The records of 174 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 5: women fighters who carried their babies coming back is really 175 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 5: not as bad as I thought it would have been. 176 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 5: I looked up a few, you know, when they come 177 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 5: back too quickly, that seems to be more of an issue. 178 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 5: But she's had a pretty good layoff in here, and 179 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 5: she just has a really good matchup against Coorting McKenna. 180 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 5: McKenna's one one in the UFC. She lost to Elise Reid, 181 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 5: who's not great, and then beat Kay Hansen, who doesn't 182 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 5: really seem to be much of a fighter, and was 183 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 5: cut shortly. 184 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 2: There after that. 185 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 5: So neither of those are impressive. You know, Granger's only 186 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 5: one in two, but she fought way tougher competition. She 187 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 5: has somehow has a ten inch reach advantage against McKenna 188 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 5: in this one, which I can't recall ever seeing, especially 189 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 5: with people that short, So she should get the better 190 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 5: of the striking exchanges. And then it's just another one 191 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 5: where if we've got a female fight highly likely to 192 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 5: go to a decision going to be kind of a 193 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 5: low level. That's when I want the plus money so 194 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 5: at plus one eighty five or so, that's the best 195 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 5: line still out there. That's one if you're listening, I 196 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 5: would get to right away because she's been dropping throughout 197 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 5: the week with MGM being a little bit of an 198 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 5: outlier and not having moved it down yet. 199 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 3: Okay, the fight of the night that Sean and Billy 200 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 3: want to discuss, luke K the Neil Luk on the 201 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 3: money line minus one eighty. Neil is at plus one 202 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 3: fifty five. That is one of the that is a 203 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 3: welterweight matchup. Again, these fights are it's not pay per view, 204 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 3: it's on ESPN or ESPN Plus. It varies, so just 205 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 3: keep on the schedule. But yes, Luk Neil Shonzrello again, 206 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: like you kind of said, you kind of adhere to 207 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 3: this in the in the last in the underdog discussion, 208 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 3: you might be playing totals more so than you will 209 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 3: money line. So is that kind of the same way 210 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 3: you'll go about this? 211 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. 212 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 4: I like this fight to go to her decision and 213 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 4: plus money. Both of these guys very durable. Do not 214 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 4: see any submission thread from Jeff Neil can expect him 215 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 4: not to get knocked out by Luka. Luca should be 216 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 4: trying to pressure a lot, but Neil tends to back up, 217 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 4: be very low volume, tends to try to get his 218 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 4: fights to a slow paced affair where he is the 219 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 4: guy with bigger power. He's probably gonna lose on volume, 220 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 4: may end up landing the biggest shot of the round 221 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 4: and flipping it in his favor. So I think the 222 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 4: margins here should be pretty close, even though I expect 223 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 4: Luka to be more aggressive to land more volume throughout 224 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 4: the course of the fight. 225 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 2: But the fact that Neil. 226 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 4: Is a south pole may take away some of Luke's 227 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 4: best weapons. We are getting southpod versus orthodox in this matchup, 228 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 4: so he's not gonna be able to kick the leg 229 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 4: as easily, not gonna be able to land his left 230 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 4: hook as easily. I do trust them to be more active. 231 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 4: Would expect Luke to win more minutes, as I said, 232 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 4: but this should be a competitive fight likely goes to 233 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 4: decision more often than not. I think I made it 234 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,599 Speaker 4: about fifty three percent to minus one fifteen, and you 235 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 4: can get a plus one twenty. 236 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 2: Five on that number. 237 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 4: So the over two and a half fight to go 238 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 4: to a decision, and then either fighter to win by 239 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 4: decision in the propmer as well. I think you can 240 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 4: find value and either of their decision props. I know 241 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 4: some of our Action Network contributors are taking a shot 242 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 4: on Neil by decision at four to one. I think 243 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 4: it's going to be a razor close decision if it 244 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 4: gets the scorecards. So just the GTD for me at 245 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 4: plus money, I'll probably end up skipping the fighter to 246 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 4: win by decision props. 247 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 2: And one of those daring people is Billy Ward. Explain yourself. 248 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Sean pretty much laid out everything that 249 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 5: I was looking at too in the same way. The 250 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 5: only thing I will say is Luke has never been 251 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 5: finished in the UFC, but he's one in four and 252 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 5: fights that go to a decision, So you know, I 253 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 5: don't know how like sustainable that is, or whether it's 254 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 5: a future of judging or just how he fights doesn't 255 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 5: play well to the judges. But you know, twenty percent 256 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 5: win rate win the fights go to a decision isn't great. 257 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 5: And then Neil also has a better track record against 258 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,559 Speaker 5: their two common opponents. He beat Billel Muhammad, who Luke 259 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 5: lost to, and then Neil got a faster finish against 260 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 5: Nico Price. You know, I don't love the whole mma 261 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 5: math thing, but I think there's an angle to him 262 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 5: being better longer in a fight where Luk probably has 263 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 5: the better quick stop of Jodge is the more aggressive fighter. 264 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 5: So if I'm gonna play it, I'll just take the 265 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 5: four to one odds, lay like half a unit on it, 266 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 5: and you know, hope Neil gets the decision. And it's 267 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 5: probably if it goes to a decision, people are gonna 268 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 5: complain on either side, So I want the longer ticket 269 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 5: when it's one that we're gonna be whinding about. 270 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 2: You know, let's go to props. 271 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 3: That's next here on the Action Network Cast, UFC Betting Preview, 272 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 3: UFC Fight Night Main Event Santos and Hill in Las Vegas, Zorrillo. 273 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:30,839 Speaker 2: Where we looking on the prop market. 274 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, like SERGEI speedback on the money line. I also 275 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 4: like Brian battle on the money line. I'm probably gonna 276 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 4: parlay those two guys up, But in terms of prop bets, 277 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 4: speedback inside the distance at minus one twenty may be 278 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 4: the best way to play him. Also, that fight to 279 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 4: end inside the distance out about minus two hundred, we'll 280 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 4: get to a similar way I'm playing my best bets 281 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 4: as well, just for a different fight, but basically the 282 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,559 Speaker 4: same bets. Fighter to win inside the distance, fight to 283 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 4: end inside the distance at roughly similar prices to minus 284 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 4: one twenty about minus one seventy minus one hundred on 285 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 4: the fight to end inside the distance. I like Spevak 286 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 4: in this matchup in a heavyweight fight, even as a 287 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 4: big favorite, because he's reliable to shoot takedowns. He has 288 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 4: all the grappling upside here, not something you typically see 289 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 4: from a heavyweight, but he is aggressive in pursuit of 290 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 4: his takedowns, shoots over five or six per fifteen minutes, 291 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 4: lands more than three sixty percent accuracy. He's really good 292 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 4: at getting them from clinch positions too, which is where 293 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 4: Sakai likes to fight and close from that Muti clinch. 294 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 4: So I certainly see Spevac getting into that clinch and 295 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 4: getting trip takedowns from there. Skai got out grappled by 296 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 4: a kickboxer and Alistar over him taken down multiple times. 297 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 4: I expect Spivak to be able to take him down, 298 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 4: and when he does get the fight to the mat, 299 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 4: I expect him to be able to keep it there too, Sakai, 300 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 4: not good at getting off of his back, tends to 301 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 4: throw strikes and close his guard rather than trying to 302 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 4: get back up and progress positions. So with heavyweights on 303 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 4: top of you, it's harder to get back up in general, 304 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 4: but it's hard to get back up when you're not 305 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 4: trying to get up. I think this fight could be 306 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 4: competitive on the feet as well. I don't necessarily see 307 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 4: Sekai having some huge advantage in the striking, so competitive 308 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 4: on the feet. All the grappling upside towards the speedback side. 309 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,479 Speaker 4: Think he gets on top and either finds his submission 310 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 4: or pounds Sakai out for a mount. So speedback inside 311 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 4: the distance minus one twenty. Fight to end inside the 312 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 4: distance around minus two hundred. I think you could play either, 313 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 4: you could play both. I'll probably end up playing both. 314 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 2: Billy props. What do you like? 315 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I really like it's really hard to get 316 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 5: up if you don't try to, which is one of 317 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 5: those weird truisms. But yeah, I'm looking at the female 318 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 5: fight between Priscilla Ketchoea and Arion Lipski. Uh Ketchojea is 319 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 5: nickname zombie Girl because she kind of just walks forward 320 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 5: Korean zombie style just taking punchers to the head. Sheets 321 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 5: almost eight significant strikes per a minute in her fight, 322 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 5: and she's seen three of her last four go end 323 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 5: inside the distance. So his lipski, So I'm targeting the 324 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 5: under two and a half. I just think catchohy style 325 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 5: kind of makes it so either she gets finished or 326 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 5: her opponent does. She's just going to walk forward until 327 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 5: somebody dies. And I prefer the under two. 328 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 4: And a half. 329 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 5: It's plus one fifty five. You can get plus one 330 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 5: twenty that ends inside the distance. But the odds of 331 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 5: the stoppage happening in the last two and a half 332 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 5: minutes are probably not as high as that line would imply. 333 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 5: If you break down the imply to odds, you tend 334 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 5: to see more finishes early than late, as fire fighters 335 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 5: tire out. So yeah, you know, I usually don't like 336 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 5: bedding female fights stend inside the distance or end early. 337 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 5: But you know, someone nicknamed the zombie girl fighting against 338 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 5: the muhite tai fighter who tends to get finished on 339 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 5: the ground, just kind of a perfect recipe for this 340 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 5: one done fast. 341 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 3: Hey, always when we do this, we do this show 342 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 3: on Action Network podcast. As we get a little DFS breakdown. 343 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 3: I admit I am recording today in Connecticut, so I 344 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 3: can't pull up the contest Billy. 345 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 2: It's so freaking annoying. I always forget about that part. 346 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 3: Give it to me because I don't have the salaries 347 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 3: and I can't pull them up because you can't do 348 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 3: that stuff here in Connecticut. 349 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually would rather not be looking at these 350 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 5: salaries myself. This is just a terrible It's a terrible 351 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 5: DFS slate because there's a bunch of you know, really 352 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 5: wide money lines as we've talked about, and all those 353 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 5: fighters are really appealing, you know, Mike mkal Ola, Jayshuck 354 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 5: really want to get him in there, really want to 355 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 5: get Terrence McKinney in there. Spivik Whushan just mentioned obviously 356 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 5: Jamal Hill. These guys are all close to or above 357 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 5: nine thousand, and I just don't really see any underdogs 358 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 5: that I are, cheap underdogs that I really like for GPPs. 359 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 5: So you know, one of these cheap fighters is going 360 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 5: to probably shock everyone and that's going to be the 361 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 5: one you need. But I don't have the slightest clue 362 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 5: who it is this time. I'm just going to mix 363 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 5: and match. You know, two or three of those expensive fighters. 364 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 5: Try to let the fantasy labs optimize or do the 365 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 5: work and mix in some of those cheaper fighters, and 366 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 5: you know, sometimes you get lucky on those. I'm going 367 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 5: to take a stand. I don't want any Santos, but 368 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 5: even the other three, like could Augusto, Sakai Pul and 369 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 5: knock out out of somewhere maybe, I don't know. Crazier 370 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 5: things have happened, So that's what we're looking at. You know, 371 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 5: it's not a bad cash game slate. I think there's 372 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 5: some of the cheaper female fighters are in good spots. 373 00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 5: You know, we just talked about Miranda Granger's only seventy one. 374 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 5: Don't love her for GPPs. Don't think she puts up 375 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 5: a big score there. So yeah, outside of that, like 376 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 5: I said, this is one where I'm not trying to 377 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 5: get too deep into specific fighters. You can block off 378 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 5: the fighters I don't like and let the optimizer do 379 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 5: the work. 380 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm like half Kenning. 381 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 3: I know we can pull up the optimizer, but it's 382 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 3: more for effect. But yeah, I mean, being in Connecticut, 383 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 3: I can't even open up the thing. So anything to 384 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 3: add there's aerill level before we go to best bets. 385 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 4: This is somehow a worse DFS slate than it is 386 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 4: a betting slate. I agree completely with Billy, like none 387 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 4: of these underdogs are appealing since he brought up Terrence McKay. 388 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 4: The one thing I will say, McKinney is about as 389 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 4: aggressive as a fighter as you will ever see. I 390 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 4: tend to get his guys out of there early, but 391 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 4: if he doesn't, he can gass out big time. So 392 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 4: Eric and Zales sixty seven hundred on DK live after 393 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 4: round one, that's going to be pretty appealing. You may 394 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 4: get like fifteen to one on this guy after McKinney 395 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 4: maybe tenants him in the first round, So look for 396 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 4: Eric and Zales to potentially steal a comeback in the 397 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 4: second or third round if he can survive the opening 398 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 4: frame Live after round one on Gonzalez, I think is 399 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 4: an appealing play. 400 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 3: Okay, before we wrap, as we always do, best bets 401 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 3: for UFC Fight Night, and uh, we're gonna start with Zorilla. 402 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 2: What do you got? 403 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mentioned you know how I'm betting a fight 404 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 4: this feedback fight in the top prop section. I'm betting 405 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 4: the mcal Olex a chuck versus Sam Alvi fight in 406 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 4: pretty much the exact same way. McCall inside the distance 407 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 4: at minus one twenty, fight to end inside the distance 408 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 4: at minus one seventy. I think this is actually pretty 409 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 4: good matchmaking. Now. Alvi is thirty six years old on 410 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 4: seven to one in his past eight UFC fights, probably 411 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 4: getting cut here even if he manages to win. But 412 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 4: McCall pressures a ton and Alvi prefers to be on 413 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 4: the back foot and counter. So it's actually very good 414 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 4: matchmaking from a violence perspective. Because olex A Chuck's going 415 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 4: to look to swarm him, pressure him, especially in the 416 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 4: small cage, Alvi is going to look to move backwards 417 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 4: at land one huge left hand. Olex Say Chuck does 418 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 4: a really good at keeping a high, tight guard even 419 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 4: when he's moving forward. He's very good at moving his 420 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 4: head as well. Defended strikes at sixty four percent. I 421 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 4: would imagine his head strike defense is probably even higher 422 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 4: because he's very easy to kick and hit to the body, 423 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 4: but not as easy to hit upstairs. Alve fifty plus 424 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 4: pro fights definitely on the downside of his career. Knocked 425 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 4: out by Brendan Allen in his past fight and what 426 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 4: I really don't like or from a violence perspective, but 427 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,479 Speaker 4: what I really do like is that both guys are 428 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 4: cutting to one eighty five. Here, Alvi's gone back and 429 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 4: forth between middleweight light heavyweight. Going back down to one 430 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 4: eighty five at thirty six years old is a recipe 431 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 4: for disaster. Olex Say Chuck looks like he always should 432 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 4: have been fighting at middleweight as opposed to light heavyweight. 433 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 4: He was very small for light heavyweight, so I think 434 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 4: this certainly favors him going back down to one eighty five. 435 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 4: He should be the faster man, should be the stronger man, 436 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 4: and Alvi may just be a little more zach than 437 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 4: he has been fighting at light heavyweight, so I expect 438 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 4: Olex say Chuck to knock him out like his knockout prop, 439 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 4: like he's inside the distance prop. I would consider his 440 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 4: round one prop at plus two hundred, but I actually 441 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 4: may even prefer to all of those the under one 442 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 4: and a half at plus money as opposed to laying 443 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,439 Speaker 4: the minus one twenty. And his id prop tends to 444 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 4: finish his fights earlier if he's going to finish them, 445 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 4: and he doesn't have the best guest gas tank even 446 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 4: at light heavyweight, so moving down another weight class, probably 447 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 4: his five seven minutes of cardio, that's when I would 448 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 4: expect him to have the highest chance of putting Alvia away. 449 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 4: He can get plus money on that under one and 450 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,479 Speaker 4: a half, that may be the best way to play it. 451 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 4: But his itd odds at minus one twenty, the fight 452 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 4: to end inside the distance at minus one seventy. I 453 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 4: think those are all fine ways to play this fight. 454 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 2: Okay, Billy, take us home. Best bet for UFC fight Night. 455 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 5: Yeah, Sean referenced it a little bit, but I'm actually 456 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 5: seeing the Terence McKinny fight a little bit differently, So 457 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 5: I'm gonna set this up for you guys a little bit. 458 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 5: He's had three fights in the UFC. I believe two 459 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 5: of them are on short notice. He has two wins, 460 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 5: both in under two minutes and eleven seconds. Then he 461 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 5: comes out against Drew Dover, looks awesome early on, drops Dover, 462 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 5: but then totally just tank gases out, ends up losing 463 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 5: the fight, gets knocked out three and a half minutes in. 464 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 5: If I'm Terrence McKinney's camp or his team, or even 465 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 5: McKinney himself, I'm thinking that we need to get him 466 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 5: some cage time. We need to get him, you know, 467 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 5: practice at a measured pace, have him lasting longer in 468 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 5: a fight. But when a you're you gonna do that. 469 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 5: You're not going to do that in a tough fight 470 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 5: against Drew Dover. You're gonna do it against Eric Gonzalez, 471 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 5: who's owned one in the UFC and got knocked out 472 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 5: by million year old Jim Miller in his debut. This 473 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 5: is a pretty non threatening matchup for McKinney, I think, so. 474 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 5: I expect them to come out and just try to 475 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 5: build some cage time. If this hits the second round, 476 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 5: that's going to be more time than he spent in 477 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 5: a UFC octagon in his previous three fights. And the 478 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 5: best way I can see to bet that is the 479 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 5: fight to start round two is plus one thirty. I 480 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 5: have a suspicion that his camp is going to tell him, hey, 481 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 5: let's win round one, like you know, touch him up, 482 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 5: win some minutes, and then round two kind of unleash 483 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 5: him once we warn him down. 484 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 2: A little bit. 485 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 5: You know, it's hard to say because I don't know 486 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 5: what they're thinking. I know that's what I would do 487 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 5: if I were in McKinney's camp, and he just needs 488 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 5: to build some endurance up a little bit there, get 489 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,080 Speaker 5: some experience in a fight that he doesn't win in 490 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 5: twelve seconds. So at plus money, I think that's probably 491 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 5: likelier in the not to happen. It's also just crazy 492 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 5: to see a guy who's favored to win a fight 493 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 5: inside round one. So anytime I can bet against that, 494 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 5: I'm gonna do it at plus money. 495 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 2: Excellent stuff. 496 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 3: As always Fellas Again, this is not pay per view 497 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 3: this week. You can find these fights on ESPN ESPN Plus. 498 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 3: That's going to do it for the Action Network podcast 499 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 3: UFC Betting Preview, It's UFC Fight Night. 500 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 2: Santos v. 501 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 3: Hill goes down Saturday at UFC Apex in Las Vegas 502 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 3: for Shanzillo, Billy Ward. 503 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 2: Brendan Glassie. We will join you all again next week. 504 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 3: We join you every Friday as the schedule works itself 505 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 3: out and get you ready for Saturday. 506 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in, have a great weekend. We'll talk 507 00:22:44,600 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 2: to you next