1 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heart Radio. It's the big tag. 2 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 1: I'm West Cassova today Why this year's US midterm elections 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: will decide whether the presidential election can be overturned no 4 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: matter what the voters decide. Republican candidates for offices around 5 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: the country are taking their cue from former President Donald Trump. 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: They falsely dispute the outcome of the election, saying Trump 7 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: was a real winner and Joe Biden stole it from him. 8 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: And in five key states where Trump tried and failed 9 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: to overturn the results, the Republican nominees for governor and 10 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: other important jobs overseeing elections are pushing changes to how 11 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: elections are run and how votes are counted, and if 12 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: they succeed, it could be easier to change the outcome 13 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: if Trump or another candidate tried to do it again. 14 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: In Well, there's no question that they rigged the election. 15 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: There's no question that they said about changing the rules 16 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: of game of the game three months out and they 17 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,759 Speaker 1: gave us mail in balloting and we have no voter. 18 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: I d that was Adam Laxall, the Republican Senate nominee 19 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: in Nevada. It was candidates like him that led a 20 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: team of Bloomberg reporters to have fan out across the 21 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: country to try to figure out how vulnerable the states 22 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: are to having their election results overturned, including how state 23 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 1: lawmakers have changed laws around voting and elections since, and 24 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: whether election officials and candidates for important offices say they'll 25 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 1: respect the outcome. In candidates like Tutor Dixon, who's running 26 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: for governor in Michigan, they wouldn't have voted to have 27 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: other people influenced this election. I think there were too 28 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: many opportunities for fraud and that Democrats took advantage of 29 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: the fact that we were in the middle of a pandemic. 30 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: From all this reporting, Bloomberg created an election risk index, 31 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: which assesses what the candidates might do if they win office. 32 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: People like Kerry Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona. 33 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,839 Speaker 1: It's really really game over for those spinalist politicians who 34 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: stood by and they didn't do a damn thing for us. 35 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: They sat there, they did nothing as our elections were 36 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: stolen from us. And Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for 37 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: governor in Pennsylvania, most of the bad things sadly happened 38 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. We see bags and bags of ballots showing 39 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: up with without any good chain of custody, and all 40 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: this smells very rotten and something's gone wrong To short 41 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 1: off this out, I'm here with Ryan t back with 42 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: one of the reporters on the Election Risk project, and 43 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: later in the show, we're gonna speak with Mario Parker, 44 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's politics editor, Ryan You, and reporter Bill Elsen, who 45 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: was your partner on this project, along with a whole 46 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: lot of other journalists in Bloomberg bureaus around the country. 47 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: You set out to answer this deceptively difficult ship, How 48 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: sound is America's election system? How do you even go 49 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 1: about trying to measure something as elusive as that. What 50 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: we came up with was a set of criteria for 51 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: each state that we looked at where we could kind 52 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: of break it down to yes, simple yes, no questions, 53 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: do they have this or not? And we looked at 54 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: voting access first of all, um regisuring and voting, and 55 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: then second of all, we looked at ballot security. What 56 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 1: is ballot security? You know, how do they count the votes? 57 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: How is secure or the voting machines? That a lot 58 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: of the things that people have been calling election integrity. 59 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: We're trying to kind of shy away from that because 60 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: it's become such a politicized term, But you know, is 61 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: is it being counted like accurately and quickly? I think 62 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 1: those two things have always been kind of like when 63 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: any changes to election law were made, they usually included 64 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: some voter access and some ballot security measures combined, and 65 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: we wanted to make sure that we were capturing both 66 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: of those um And then for the third was like 67 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: what are the people who are running to oversee election, Like, 68 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: what are the governors and secretaries of state and attorney generals? 69 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: What are they saying? What did they say about the election? 70 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: And then we looked at all of the laws that 71 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: were being proposed in all fifty states, and there were 72 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: a lot of them. Yeah, I mean there's thousands. Uh, 73 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 1: there was more laws proposed in this two year period 74 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 1: since the election by an order of magnitude than in 75 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: any previous two year two years after an election for 76 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: like the last twenty years. So definitely like a ton 77 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: of interest in this and both Democrats and Republicans, and 78 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: in some ways, like voting is actually easier in a 79 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: lot of parts of the country than before for two reasons. 80 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: One is that during the pandemic, a lot of states 81 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,840 Speaker 1: experimented with things like early voting um or letting people 82 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 1: register online and things like that because of the pandemic, 83 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: and when they try those they were popular, and so 84 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: they continued with them. In other cases, I think that 85 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: former President Donald Trump's attacks on voting and attacks on 86 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: vote by mail and attacks on the election inspired democ 87 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: rats the sort of rally around those, And so you 88 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: saw a lot of states, particularly in the Northeast, like 89 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: New York, put a lot more energy into trying to 90 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 1: make it easier to vote, make it easier to register. 91 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: So really like overall, like it's easier to vote in 92 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: most parts of the country. And yet, Yeah, there's a 93 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: big and yet in your story, which is that even 94 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: though it is unexpectedly, according to your reporting, easier to 95 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: vote in a lot of places, and that this year's 96 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: elections are likely to be okay. Um that maybe some 97 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 1: candidates will claim they won when they lost. By and large, 98 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: the two midterm elections are gonna be okay. But depending 99 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: on who wins this time around, especially in important keys states, 100 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: could determine whether or not the election is going to 101 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: be free and fair. When we looked at what officials 102 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,359 Speaker 1: have had to say, what people who are running for 103 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 1: key offices have to say, we found two hundred and 104 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:05,160 Speaker 1: fifty eight people who are either currently holding office or 105 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 1: running and have been nominated for an office governor, secretary 106 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: of state, attorney general, or US House and US Senate 107 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 1: who are election deniers. So that's two hundred and fifty 108 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: eight people. We published a story noting how many people 109 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: were on that list, and we had to update it 110 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: literally like within a day because there was another two 111 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: people who'd been nominated r And one thing you found 112 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: was that in five key swing states, and these are 113 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: the states that tend to decide presidential elections. And tell 114 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: me if I'm going to name them all right, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, 115 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 1: and Nevada and also sort of toss up state of Pennsylvania, 116 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: the candidates for governor, Republican candidate for governor and or 117 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: secretary of States. Some of them have kind of multiple 118 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: candidates deny that Joe Baden won the election, and have 119 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: in one way or another said that they would take 120 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: steps to correct what they see as election fraud in 121 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: election if you should rise right. So the concerning thing 122 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: there is that what we didn't see in the election, 123 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 1: Trump and his allies pushed back in a lot of ways, 124 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: but when push came to shove, local and state officials 125 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: didn't go along with their sort of schemes. It was 126 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: Republican officials. You know, a lot of case Republicans and 127 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: a lot of cases these were die hard Trump loyalists 128 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: who said, I just can't go along with this, right, 129 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: And I don't know that that's going to be the 130 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: case if Trump or someone else tries a similar effort 131 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: next time. At least among these governors, uh, Doug Mastriano 132 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania's probably the one who did the most, both 133 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: behind the scenes and as a state lawmaker to try 134 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: to further Trump's attempts to overturn the election in that state. 135 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: And in his subernatorial campaign he has said things like 136 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: he wants to de certify all of the voting machines. 137 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: We saw Governor Wolf de certified every single machine in 138 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: the state twenty nineteen. We can do the same. And 139 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: you have a Secretary of State candidate Mark Fincham. State 140 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: Representative Mark Fincham is calling for statewide door to door 141 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: voter verification in Arizona. He is running for secretary of 142 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: State right now and as a strong supporter of former 143 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump's unproven claims of widespread voter fraud. If 144 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: they're elected, paint is a picture of what Arizona looks 145 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: like in the next two years and what the state's 146 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: laws would look like. On the eve of the election, 147 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: Arizona state lawmakers are not anxious to completely upend their 148 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: very popular vote by mail system based on you know, 149 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: conspiracy theories and complaints um from a fraction of voters. 150 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: But you could see a lot of The secretary of state, 151 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: for example, in most states certifies which voting machines can 152 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: be used. So if you are the secretary of state 153 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: in your an election denier, you could simply pick, you know, 154 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: the machines that are used by counties that you don't 155 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: like that tend to go for you know, the other party, 156 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: and you could just simply de certify all as machines. 157 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: So suddenly those counties have to spend a bunch of 158 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: money on their own because they're generally bought by the 159 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: local officials to buy new machines. In fact, Maricopa County 160 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 1: had to buy new machines because that cyber Ninjas audit 161 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: of Maricopa County in Arizona was so poorly run that 162 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:30,599 Speaker 1: they didn't have chain of custody of the machines, and 163 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: they couldn't keep using the machines because they couldn't say 164 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: that they hadn't been tampered with. You could do things like, 165 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,839 Speaker 1: you know, try to kick more people off of the 166 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: voter rules as Secretary of State through really aggressive purge. 167 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: So just even creating sort of an air of chaos 168 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: around you know, when and how elections are conducted could 169 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: be enough to really make it harder for people to vote. 170 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 1: So given all of that, Ryan, how concerned should people 171 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 1: be about the integrity of the next presidential election? The 172 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: thing is is there are so many election deniers running 173 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: for so many offices that some of them, statistically speaking, 174 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: some of them are going to win. I think that 175 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: some of the people who have staked out the most 176 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: extreme positions on this are going to lose. And that's 177 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: largely because they've also staked out extreme positions on other 178 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: issues that are more salient to voters, and I think 179 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: may end up hurting them more. You know, But some 180 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 1: of these people are going to get in there. I mean, 181 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: when you look at the Senate, you know, a lot 182 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: of the Republicans who did not go along with Trump's 183 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: efforts are retiring. So like Rob Portman of Ohio, the 184 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 1: Republican nominee in the state is J. D. Evance, who 185 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 1: has endorsed election denial, and Senate nominees in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, 186 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, and New Hampshire who have 187 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: all denied the election was free and fair. And that's 188 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: a lot of people, and some of them are going 189 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: to win. And so you know what happens if some 190 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: of these governor nominees win, and some of these secretary 191 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: of state nominees win, and some of these Senate nominees win, 192 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: you know the next time that you see a similar 193 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: effort to what Trump tried and so far, I would 194 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: say if you were a major party nominee. And you know, 195 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: there's really been very little downside for Trump himself to 196 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: have tried to contest the election. So I don't think 197 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: that this is the last time that an election is 198 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: going to be contested. And given the number of people 199 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: who are running for office, the odds that it may 200 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: come down to one of these people are are good, 201 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: and that's concerning. The laws don't concern me as much 202 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: as the people do. You just don't know what they 203 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: may do the next time they're faced with that question. Ryan, 204 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: you've given us a lot to think about, So thanks 205 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: for that. We're gonna keep you in the chair just 206 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 1: a little bit longer. When we come back from the break, 207 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: we are going to ask you what we should be 208 00:11:49,320 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: looking for in this year's midterm elections. Ryan, you've given 209 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:09,239 Speaker 1: us a pretty sobering overview of how all these potential 210 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: changes to laws and candidates could affect the U S elections. 211 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: But what about this year's mid term elections that are 212 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 1: coming up in November? What are the places right now 213 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: that people who are watching this election should keep an 214 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: eye on for uh, looking at election interference, other election 215 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 1: problems and what that might mean. So, there's three laws 216 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: that have been passed since the election which I think 217 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: you can already see an effect from which could be 218 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: decisive enough to decide a close race. Um. The first 219 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: is in Texas, they passed a law that said you 220 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: need to put some kind of voter i D number 221 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: on a vote by mail ballot, and that number had 222 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 1: to either be your driver's license number or you're such 223 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: security number. And they were warned when they passed this 224 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: law that the state database only has one of those numbers. 225 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: It doesn't have both, because you only needed one to 226 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: sign up to vote, And in some cases, you might 227 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: have signed up to vote a long time ago and 228 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 1: your driver's license number has changed because you've moved. And 229 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: why did they do this, Well, this is one of 230 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: those things where in the abstract and the hypothetical, it's 231 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: actually a better law than the alternative, which is signature verification. 232 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: Um Signature verification has been shown to be extremely problematic. 233 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: A lot of young black and Hispanic voters have their 234 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 1: signatures rejected at a higher rate, and so I'm not 235 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: really a fan of signature verification than numerical i D 236 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: works in a lot of states where it's used, and 237 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: it's not really a problem. But the reasoning behind all 238 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: of this is presumably to prevent fraud, right, I mean, 239 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: the reason to pass this is that there's a theory 240 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 1: that you know, people are sending in fraudulent mail and ballots, 241 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: and again there's not really evidence that there's a lot 242 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: of that happening. But I think it's fine for a 243 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: state to require some kind of I D verification and 244 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: loss of states to do that. But what happened in 245 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: Texas was that if you put the wrong number to verify, 246 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: then it was thrown out, even if it was legitimate ballot, 247 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: because they had no way to verify that number. They 248 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 1: only had the other number. And so this is just 249 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: incredibly poor execution of an otherwise fine law um they had. 250 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,479 Speaker 1: In the primary, they had twelve percent of mail ballots rejected. 251 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: That's three thousand ballots statewide that were thrown out. The 252 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: national average for an election is about one percent of 253 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: mail ballots are rejected, which is actually still probably includes 254 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: a lot of people whose ballots were legit, they just 255 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 1: were thrown out. That's a really, really bad rejection rate 256 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: to be twelve times the national average. And if an 257 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: election came down to a few thousand votes and you 258 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: were throwing out, you know, and that's a primary, so 259 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: so you can imagine it's gonna be higher than twenty 260 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: three in November, that could be bad. Does that mean 261 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: that the twelve percent are people who put down a 262 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: wrong number? And therefore you could argue that it was 263 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: a front know, they that's the that's the correct number. 264 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: They put down their driver's license number, but the system 265 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: only had their so security number, and so it was 266 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 1: flagged as we can't verify this, and it was thrown out. 267 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's not a fraudulent ballot. That's not 268 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: a ballot that you know, should be rejected under the 269 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: state's own laws. It's just that they enacted this law 270 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: without you know, updating the database and putting the effort 271 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: into actually making sure that this would work. And these 272 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: ballots are disproportionately democratic because Democrats are much more likely 273 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: to vote by mail right now in Texas. Uh So 274 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: in the primary, there's a lot more Democratic ballots and 275 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: Republican ballots that were thrown out. So that was really problematic. So, 276 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: I mean raises the question. I don't know if you 277 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: have the answer. The Republicans know that this would mostly 278 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: affect Democrats, and is there reasonably that that's behind it 279 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: or is that just an effect of it? You know, 280 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: vote by mail historically has not been partisan. It's not 281 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: been something that either party had a consistent advantage in 282 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: any state. There were some states where Republicans were more 283 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: likely to take advantage of it. Republicans being older and 284 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: less likely to move around, it's tended to be a 285 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: little bit more friendly to Republican voters. And some states, 286 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: like in Florida, they have a really good system for 287 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: sort of getting out the vote through vote by mail. 288 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: Since Trump's attacks on vote by mail, Republicans are much 289 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: less likely to indicate that they want to vote that way, 290 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: and Democrats are much more likely to indicate that they 291 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: do want to vote that way. So I think a 292 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: lot of these laws that are seeking to limit vote 293 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: by mail are sort of predicated on the idea that 294 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: it's more popular Democrats. That's not necessarily true, but it 295 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 1: was true in the primary in Texas this time around. 296 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: A Texas makes that's really hard to vote by mail. 297 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: So this is just a fraction of votes. You have 298 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: to have an excuse or be over the age of 299 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 1: sixty five in Texas to vote by mail. So it's 300 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: not a ton of ballots, but if you're throwing out 301 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: twelve percent of them, you know, in a very close race, 302 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: that could make a difference. So there's Texas. You said, 303 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: there are two other states. Yes, the other one that's 304 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: the most concerning is going on right now in Georgia, 305 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: where a law passed since the election makes it dramatically 306 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 1: easier for people to come in and basically say I 307 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: think that this person is not a registered voter, or 308 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 1: like who is a registered voter is not valid and 309 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,239 Speaker 1: should be kicked off the voter rules. And so a 310 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: group affiliated with some allies of Donald Trump has gone 311 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 1: into various counties. They went into Gwynette County, which is 312 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: formally Republican part of the state this now trending democratic, 313 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: and they challenged the voter registrations of thirty seven thousand people. 314 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: What was the basis for saying they identified those particular people. Yeah, 315 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,239 Speaker 1: so under the voter at law, it's actually kind of 316 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: hard to remove someone from the voter rules. It has 317 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: to be done under certain circumstances. So there's a lot 318 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 1: of times where someone has moved to a new state, 319 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: they'll remain on the old states voter rules and tell 320 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 1: either the state, you know, get some kind of notification 321 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 1: that you know they've moved, or they don't vote and 322 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: they show up as inactive and then they get sent 323 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: up postcard and if they don't respond to the postcard, 324 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: then they're finally be canceled, but it can take years 325 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 1: for that process to play out, so there's always some 326 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: dead weight on the voter rules. So the risk is 327 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: that along with people who maybe shouldn't be on the 328 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: voter rules in Georgia anymore, are a lot of people 329 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: who do live in Georgia should be able to vote 330 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,199 Speaker 1: in Georgia but are now being disqualified. Right. There's a 331 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 1: reason why they typically wait to clean the voter rules 332 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 1: until the January following a major federal election, and that's 333 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: because it's bad to take someone off who should be 334 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 1: allowed to vote, because someone who's legally valid and just 335 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 1: hasn't voted in a while because they just weren't inspired 336 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: by the candidates, or they got busy, or they forgot, 337 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: and then they decide, now this is the time I'm 338 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 1: going to vote. And they show up to vote and 339 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: they can't and Georgia doesn't have same day voter registration, 340 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: so they're out of luck. And the last state is Florida. 341 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 1: Never a shortage of drama there, I will say Florida. 342 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 1: After the two thousand election where everything kind of came 343 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: down to Florida and all eyes were on Florida really 344 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: cleaned up its laws and and overall its voting laws 345 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: are pretty good and they really didn't want to tinker 346 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: with them too much. Then, ain change that they made 347 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: that was problematic since the election was that the Governor, 348 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: Rhonda Santis, asked for a special election crimes police task 349 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: force kind of agency that reports directly to him. And 350 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: what is it that this uh police force is going 351 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 1: to do. Well, what they're supposed to do is look 352 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: for people who voted fraudulently, people who voted twice, you know, 353 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: voter registrations that people who have broken some kind of 354 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: voting law. And yeah, the particular reason why it was 355 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: flag is problematic was just that they report directly to 356 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 1: the governor. And so, sure enough, a couple of days 357 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 1: before the primary, Florida Governor Rhonda Santis held a press 358 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 1: conference in which he said, well, you know, I'm announcing 359 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 1: that we're charging a bunch of people around the state 360 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: with crime of voting, even though they are felons and 361 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 1: aren't allowed to vote. And normally I've been to a 362 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: lot of these kinds of press conferences in the past. 363 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: Usually they're done by an attorney general, and usually if 364 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 1: it was something as sensitive as like voter fraud, they 365 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 1: wouldn't do it three days before I Mary, and this 366 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 1: was very much not did not follow that rule. He 367 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 1: did not name who the people were, He didn't say 368 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: where they were from. He just sort of insinuated that 369 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 1: they were from more democratic areas of the county. He 370 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: went to a democratic county to make the announcement. People 371 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: in the state, voting right advocates in the state said that, 372 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: you know, doing this just before an election is kind 373 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: of an effort to intimidate people who you know, may 374 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,959 Speaker 1: be unsure if they can vote. And it's particularly fraught 375 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: in Florida because voters actually passed a referendum to restore 376 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: voting rights cuffelons, which the state legislature and to Santist 377 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: then undermined by sort of complicating the process for doing that. 378 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 1: So there may be a lot of people who are 379 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: really uncertain of whether they can vote, and by holding 380 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 1: this announcement, by doing this, you know, he sort of 381 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,199 Speaker 1: made some of those people more fearful of voting. The 382 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 1: other reason why I was problematic is that, you know, 383 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: as it came out, like who these people were, like 384 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,200 Speaker 1: a lot of their cases were you know, they were 385 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 1: told by elections officials that they could out. You know, 386 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: in one case they were sort of directly handed a 387 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: forum and said here, sign up to register. It's fine. 388 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: And so those cases really weren't as strong as he 389 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: made them sound. So then, of course RU understanders widely 390 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,880 Speaker 1: thought to have his own eye on the White House, right, 391 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: And I think that that's the other reason why he 392 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 1: did this, was just that it allows him to show 393 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 1: himself as being tough on election and security, and right now, 394 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: that's something that a lot of Republican office holders and 395 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: nominees want to do. Thanks so much to Ryan tu 396 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: Backw for joining me. After the break, I speak to 397 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: Mario Parker, Bloomberg's US politics editor. He'll tell us about 398 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: the latest in key races around the country. With just 399 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: one week to go before election day, I'm here with 400 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: Blomberg's politics edator, Mario Parker. Mario, we've been talking all 401 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 1: about the mid terms, how election deniers could possibly disrupt 402 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 1: a whole lot of things in this election and the next. 403 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: But election day this year is fast approaching. Can you 404 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: just kind of give us a lay of the land 405 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 1: of what to expect, because it just seems completely upside 406 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 1: down out there. Well, that's absolutely it is upside down 407 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 1: is an app description. I think what's troubling from the 408 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,919 Speaker 1: election integrity perspective is the fact that a lot of 409 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: these races are so close. Right, if they were looking 410 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: to be blowouts, well, that temper is maybe the expectations 411 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: that someone may be able to deny the results of 412 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 1: the election, right, but the close races kind of signaled it. 413 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: At least they'll have a pathway to making those type 414 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,239 Speaker 1: of arguments, whether they're salient or not. So here are 415 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 1: the races that are going to be crucial to determining 416 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: control of Congress. In Pennsylvania, we've got Democrat John Fetterman 417 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: against Republican of med Oz who was backed by former 418 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump. Ump In Georgia, we have herschel Walker, 419 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 1: backed by former President Donald Trump as well, facing golf 420 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: against incumbent Democrats Senator Raphael Warnock. Similar races are taking 421 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 1: place in Wisconsin with incumbent Senator Ron Johnson against Democrat 422 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: Mandela Barnes. Arizona has another Trump backed Republican and Blake Masters, 423 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,400 Speaker 1: who was facing golf against incumbent Democrat U S Senator 424 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: Mark Kelly. So those are some of the close races 425 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 1: to watch in addition to Nevada, where you have incumbent 426 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: Democrats US Senator Katherine Quartets Mastow facing off against another 427 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: correct me if you heard this before, another Trump endorsed candidate, 428 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: and Adam lex I just wanted everybody know because you 429 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: can't see this, but Maria just did all that at 430 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: the top of his head without looking at an your note, 431 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: So kudos to you. And one of the things that 432 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of these races, as you say, 433 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: there closed, but it wasn't that close. And a lot 434 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: of the races not so long ago, even just a 435 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 1: few weeks ago, some of these races of Titan. What 436 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 1: happened that made a Republicans kind of pull up to 437 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 1: Democrats who not so long ago looked like they were 438 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 1: gonna win. Talking to Democrats six weeks ago, Oh, they 439 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 1: were exuberant. He talked to him earlier this year. They 440 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: were pretty glow. And why were they exuber They were 441 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: exuberant if you were called that was off the heels 442 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: of a couple of things happened during the summer that 443 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: turned the tide for Democrats. You had the rollback of 444 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: Roe versus Way that really ignited the base. Then you 445 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 1: had former President Donald Trump back in the news with 446 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: the search of his property in mar Lago, whether or 447 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 1: not he was keeping state secrets there as well, And 448 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 1: so that's just a gift for Democrats, right, So they 449 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 1: felt like they were gonna get a little bit of momentum. 450 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: Maybe they wouldn't keep the House because in the mid 451 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 1: term elections, the party of the president often loses, but 452 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: maybe it wouldn't be a total blowout, right, because it 453 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,640 Speaker 1: wouldn't be a total blowout, it wouldn't be the red 454 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 1: wave that they thought there was coming for them. About 455 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 1: a year ago after the Virginia gubernatorial election in which 456 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: Republican and former Carlisles Co CEO Glenn Young Can upset 457 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: Terry mccauloff, who was a big deal in Democratic circles. 458 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 1: So what changed from there because that kind of winding 459 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: their sales where they're all feeling pretty good about a 460 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 1: bad situation now kind of feels more like they're feeling 461 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: bad about what looks like it's going to be a 462 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: bad situation. Yeah, just a couple of things happened. Donald 463 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: Trump isn't in the news as much now, that's relative, right, 464 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: So as much as he was in August. In September, 465 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 1: uh Democrats went all in on the rollback of abortion rights. Really, 466 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: if you look at some of the ads the Democrats 467 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: are running, he likened it to squeezing all the juice 468 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 1: out of that limit per se, right. And then Republicans 469 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: really harped on crime, the post pandemic, rising crime. And 470 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: you're saying that they that was an effective cudgel. In Wisconsin, 471 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: Mandela Barnes had been pulling quite well against Ron Johnson. 472 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: It eroded his lead. Same thing in Pennsylvania, same thing 473 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 1: in Georgia. And so when you look towards election night, 474 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 1: and that's gonna be a hectic night for you, how 475 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 1: do you see things shaping up? Now? One of the 476 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 1: things we have to get comfortable with. And we saw 477 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: some of this in that we didn't really expect. It's 478 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: just a prolonged amount of uncertainty. We may just not 479 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 1: know who controls the Senate for sure, as you mentioned, 480 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 1: was the House is a little bit more clear, but 481 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: more challenging for them in the Senate races. And when 482 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 1: it's all said and done, um, who do you think 483 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 1: controls the Senate? And who do you think controls the hopps. Oh, 484 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 1: I wish I had that crystal ball. All right, Uh, 485 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 1: but I won't didge your question. And on this one. 486 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: A few weeks ago, as I mentioned, Democrats maybe could 487 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: have held onto their majority, picked up one seat Republicans. 488 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 1: Right now, I think that dynamic has flipped right where 489 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,880 Speaker 1: Republicans feel like it could be worst case scenario for them. 490 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: It could be a draw. We stayed deadlocked with the Senate, 491 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 1: and maybe they pick up a seat. It's funny. We 492 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 1: had a reporter out with Joe Manson, senator from West Virginia, 493 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: who has really stemmied parts of Biden's agenda, and he 494 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 1: essentially said something like he's praying to God that it's 495 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 1: not fifty fifty because then we just have a deadlock 496 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 1: for the next two years heading into the presidential election. Well, 497 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 1: if the Republicans are able to somehow November eight fulfill 498 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: right their goal of having some sort of rare wave 499 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,199 Speaker 1: where they take the House and are able to at 500 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: least take a slight majority in the Senate, maybe they 501 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 1: pick up one seat. If it's a great night for them, 502 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: maybe they pick two stints. Right, maybe they pick up Pennsylvania, 503 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 1: Georgia and Arizona. Right, that's the type of wave of 504 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 1: moments and that they're hoping to catapult them to the 505 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 1: White House in Mario. Parker, thanks for coming on the show. 506 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, West, great to be with you. You 507 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 1: can check out Bloomberg's complete election night coverage and I 508 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 1: mean complete maps and results, reporting, analysis, everything you want 509 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: and need to know. That's all on Bloomberg dot com. 510 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take, 511 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: the daily podcast from Bloomberg and I Heart Radio. For 512 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: more shows from my Heart Radio, visit the i Heart 513 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: Radio app podcast or wherever you listen. Read today's story 514 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 1: and subscribe to our daily newsletter at Bloomberg dot com 515 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: slash Big Take, and we'd love to hear from you. 516 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 1: Email us with questions or comments to Big Take at 517 00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot net. The supervisor producer of The Big Take 518 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 1: is Vicky Bergalina. Our senior producer is Katherine Fink. Our 519 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 1: producers are Moe Barrow and Michael Falero. Hilda Garcia is 520 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: our engineer. Original music by Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova. 521 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take