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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We got to get to one of the key bullmarket indicators.

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Speaker 2: Ed your Donny Joints.

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Speaker 3: Ed, what's the name of your dog?

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Speaker 4: Well, Max, Max's always likes to show up here. And

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Speaker 4: for those of you on radio, the Max indicator continues

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Speaker 4: to see a bullmarket.

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Speaker 3: Max is snoozing on the couch. Max on the market

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Speaker 3: right shoulder. And because he's his head is closer to

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Speaker 3: the armrest. That's any bullish indicator. Paul. Max's signal get

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Speaker 3: us going, Yeah, he's very mellow.

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Speaker 5: And thanks so much for joining here. Eventful Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 5: Last week Tom Keen and his team were out there

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Speaker 5: reporting on that. What did you take away from FRED

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Speaker 5: chairman j Palse.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think what was important and what the market

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Speaker 4: sense was that he didn't say something he had earlier

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Speaker 4: this year, started saying that we are in no rush

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Speaker 4: to lower interst rates, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee,

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Speaker 4: and at Jackson Hole on Friday, he did not say

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Speaker 4: we are in no rush to lower interst rates. He

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Speaker 4: basically said, well, we maybe were ready to make some

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Speaker 4: adjustments here, and the market heard that as FED put

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Speaker 4: is coming. And what was interesting is he also didn't

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Speaker 4: mention that, oh, by the way, between now and the

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Speaker 4: September sixteen, seventeenth meeting, there'll be more economic indicators, and

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Speaker 4: those indicators are very important. There'll be two inflation indicators

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Speaker 4: in peril employment, and they might change the change everybody's

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Speaker 4: mind about what the FED should do next.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think he suggested that maybe the

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Speaker 5: labor dynamic of this economy is taking a little bit

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Speaker 5: of precedence for the FED visa VI inflation. But boy,

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Speaker 5: he can't discount inflation perking up because it just we

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Speaker 5: had more tariffs announced today with the furniture. So how

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Speaker 5: do you think about inflation.

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Speaker 4: Well, he himself said that tariff effects on inflation can

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Speaker 4: be sort of a one shot deal.

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Speaker 3: Said.

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Speaker 4: The problem is if the tariff implementation isn't one shot

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Speaker 4: and kind of gets spread over time, that could continue

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Speaker 4: to create some inflationary pressures. I think what also is

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Speaker 4: missing in the discussion here and he didn't discuss it,

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Speaker 4: is that there's some indications that services inflation. Maybe if

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Speaker 4: it's not heating up, it's certainly not cooling off. I

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Speaker 4: think what tariffs have done. If they've stalled the progress

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Speaker 4: on getting down to two percent and now we're kind

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Speaker 4: of stalled at three percent because durable goods inflation has

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Speaker 4: come up, and that's clearly an indication of the tariffs

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Speaker 4: and one of the.

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Speaker 2: Great triumphs of the Ardent and folks. I'd link this

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Speaker 2: with the great technical analyst Welthanka, for it is the

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Speaker 2: belief in revenue growth, in earnings. I mentioned nominal GDP,

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Speaker 2: the animal spirit of the nation at your Denny member

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Speaker 2: at Jackson Hall that I have in eighteen twenty years before.

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Speaker 2: If we get an elevated nominal GDP through real growth

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Speaker 2: or inflation for a stock market, does it really matter

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Speaker 2: which is pushing nominal GDP up?

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Speaker 3: We just go, don't we? Yeah, revenues or revenues.

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Speaker 4: The PE time Z is done in nominal terms and

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Speaker 4: the E is in nominal terms, so that's correct. We

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Speaker 4: look at the revenues and then we look at earnings,

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Speaker 4: and the implication is profit margins. And what we see

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Speaker 4: in the data is that the first and second quarter

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Speaker 4: earnings were remarkably strong, much stronger than expected that they

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Speaker 4: usually is a positive earning surprise, but there was particularly

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Speaker 4: strong in both quarters. And now during the second quarter,

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Speaker 4: we have earnings on the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 4: at an all time record high, and no wonder the

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Speaker 4: stock market is an all time record high. Of course,

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Speaker 4: it helps that the valuation multiple is elevated at twenty two.

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Speaker 4: But I'm thinking the bill market continues here on earnings,

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Speaker 4: and I think that earnings will continue to push stock

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Speaker 4: prices higher.

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Speaker 2: Bottle that, folks, and whether you agree or disagree with

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Speaker 2: Edgar Denny, go to the beginning of that conversation where

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Speaker 2: he's agnosket agnostic on why we have buoyant nominal GDP.

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Speaker 2: This is sacrilegion the modern days, Paul, And I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: doctor you.

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Speaker 3: Denny is correct. Nominal gets everything going. That's right.

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Speaker 5: So we did they have pretty strong earnings here. How

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Speaker 5: do you think about our earnings strong enough to support

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Speaker 5: this market going forward?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think so. Here's my arithmetic on that.

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Speaker 4: I think by year end we could get to sixty

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Speaker 4: six hundred on the S and B five hundred, that's

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Speaker 4: not that far off, and I think we can get

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Speaker 4: to seventy seven hundred by the end of next year.

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Speaker 3: And my assumption is that by.

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Speaker 4: The end of this year, when we're thinking about what

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Speaker 4: earnings could be next year, we'll be looking at analys

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Speaker 4: talking about three hundred dollars per share, and then at

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Speaker 4: the end of next year, I think they'll be talking

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Speaker 4: about three hundred and fifty dollars per share. Multiply those

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Speaker 4: by the current twenty two multiple and evaluation marketable and

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Speaker 4: you get sixty six hundred and seventy seven hundred.

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Speaker 3: The tech moment that we're in, ed Yard Denny.

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Speaker 2: Does that change the way any of us calculate our

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Speaker 2: so called terminal value? If we have a see if

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Speaker 2: a one oh one five year view or seven year

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Speaker 2: study of terminal value is a new terminal.

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Speaker 3: Value out more, just as we think we're going to

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Speaker 3: grow so much.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that if you just kind of take

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Speaker 4: normal assumptions of what the economy can deliver and has

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Speaker 4: delivered in the past, you get to ten thousand on

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Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred by the end of

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Speaker 4: the decade. That's the end of twenty twenty nine, and

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Speaker 4: the assumption there is that earnings expectations get up to

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Speaker 4: four hundred dollars a share. And again that's all pretty straightforward,

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Speaker 4: consistent with the kind of growth rate of six seven

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Speaker 4: eight percent that we've seen in earnings over the years.

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Speaker 4: And if we get better than that, the market I

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Speaker 4: could very well close even higher than that.

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Speaker 5: And how concerned are you, if at all, about some

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Speaker 5: of the concentration we see in this market. A lot

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Speaker 5: of folks are saying it's just too too concentrated here

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Speaker 5: with some of those big tech names.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't bother me at all other than the fact

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Speaker 4: that you know, it's I haven't been concentrated in my

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Speaker 4: own portfolio like that. It's it's hard to be that

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Speaker 4: concentrated to own thirty percent of your portfolio. And seven

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Speaker 4: stocks is not exactly diversification, but it is what it is.

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Speaker 4: And the ETFs that reflect the S and P five

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Speaker 4: hundred obviously are in fact divers are in fact showing

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Speaker 4: the concentration of thirty percent market capitalization accounted for by

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Speaker 4: the seven stocks. You know, there's stock markets around the

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Speaker 4: world that are very concentrated, have been concentrated for years

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Speaker 4: and I think there's nothing terrible about what's happening here.

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Speaker 4: And by the way, if the Fed in fact doesn't

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Speaker 4: listen to me and goes ahead and lowers interest rates,

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Speaker 4: then we'll continue to see the broadening in the market

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Speaker 4: to smidcaps.

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Speaker 3: See her Denny is a governor vice chairman. Shure it'd

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Speaker 3: be too much, folks.

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Speaker 2: I use the famous Secunda interpolation calculator on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: at your Denny said, end of the decade, Paul ten thousand, SPX, folks.

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Speaker 2: Are you ready. I've never done this before. I've never

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Speaker 2: said this before. Paul dow seventy thousand seven zero yep,

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Speaker 2: seventy thousand, end of the decade, Ed, your Denny.

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Speaker 5: We're at forty five right now. Hey, Ed, talk to

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Speaker 5: us about just kind of where else in the marketplace

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Speaker 5: that you find value here? Is that to the except

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Speaker 5: people are looking for? Hey, I just need to find

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Speaker 5: some decent value here, and I don't need to chase

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Speaker 5: the hottest thing out There are certain sectors out there

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Speaker 5: that you like.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 4: I still do prefer the large caps over the smid caps,

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Speaker 4: but you know, I also pay attention to what the

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Speaker 4: market's doing and respect what the market is saying, and

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Speaker 4: clearly there's a move here towards cheaper stocks. So therefore

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Speaker 4: people are looking at the smaller and MidCap sector. Within those,

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Speaker 4: I would kind of focus on the sectors that we

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Speaker 4: like in the large caps, which would be information technology,

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Speaker 4: industrials and financials. So I think you can look in

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Speaker 4: that part of the market cap segment to find cheaper stocks.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the S and P five hundred is twenty

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Speaker 4: two forward pe the large cap, the MidCap and small

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Speaker 4: caps are at fourteen fifteen. So yeah, there are certainly

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Speaker 4: a lot cheaper we're just kind of waiting for their

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Speaker 4: earnings to improve. The problem I had with smid caps

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Speaker 4: is they keep getting snapped up by the lodge caps

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Speaker 4: every time. You know, you never get to own a

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Speaker 4: Microsoft because before it before it becomes a Microsoft, to

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Speaker 4: get snapped up by Microsoft, the leverag is up its technologies.

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Speaker 5: How about in a fixed income space, ED, how do

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Speaker 5: you think about just the allocation stocks and bonds these days?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think bonds are basically where they should be.

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Speaker 4: I think we've normalized the bond yield where it was

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Speaker 4: before the Great Financial Crisis. So I'm thinking that the

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Speaker 4: ten year bond yield should in fact be about four

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Speaker 4: and a half percent plus minus twenty five basis points,

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Speaker 4: and we've been in that range really since the beginning

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Speaker 4: of the year, and I think that's kind of settling down.

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Speaker 4: So if you're very a conservative investor, I think you

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Speaker 4: can buy yourself a ten year treasury and feel fairly

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Speaker 4: comfortable that you know, if you have to sell.

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Speaker 3: It early, you're not going to take a hit at

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Speaker 3: your Denny.

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Speaker 2: On index funds, Paul and I were looking at the

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Speaker 2: ownership of Nvidia before, and of course it's hugely index

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Speaker 2: fund based. I mean, in the old days of CJ.

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Speaker 2: Lawrence said, your Denny it was individual stocks. You actually

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Speaker 2: know perhaps what you were buying your Denny index funds?

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Speaker 2: Is it made our thinking sloppy.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's you know, I have a kind of a

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Speaker 4: realistic view of things, and my motto wants something like

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Speaker 4: this is it is what it is. The ETFs are

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Speaker 4: here to stay. I think you can certainly argue that

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Speaker 4: they've kind of mucked up valuation because if somebody says,

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Speaker 4: you know, I want to be in the market, and

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Speaker 4: all they do is jump into the s and P

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Speaker 4: five hundred, they are contributing to the high valuation of

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Speaker 4: the Magnificent seven because it's so concentrated. But it is

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Speaker 4: still a market. There's still plenty of people who can

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Speaker 4: trade it one way or the other, and so I

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Speaker 4: think the market is still efficient. Paul, get one worry

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Speaker 4: in here. Max needs this morning walk exactly.

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Speaker 5: Hey, yeah, talk to us about the US dollar here.

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Speaker 5: The Bloomberg dollar innex is down still about nine percent

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Speaker 5: from its high earlier in the year.

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Speaker 6: What do you make of that?

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Speaker 4: I think I'm getting a sense that I'm just one

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Speaker 4: of the only bulls left on the dollar. Let's put

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Speaker 4: it this way.

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Speaker 3: I'm one of the only.

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Speaker 4: Strategists looking at the dollar. That isn't it the bearish

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Speaker 4: There's so much bearish talk about the dollar. And yet

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Speaker 4: when you look at the Treasury data on monthly net

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Speaker 4: capital inflows the past twelve both through June, we had

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Speaker 4: a record inflow into the US equity market by foreigners

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Speaker 4: that's on a net basis of over six hundred billion dollars.

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Speaker 4: And you look at all capital inflows, they were one

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Speaker 4: point seven trillion dollars over the past twelve months. So

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Speaker 4: foreigners didn't get that that memo, that You're supposed to

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Speaker 4: be selling the dollar and buying the euro, but that's

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Speaker 4: what somebody's been doing that And I'm thinking that, technically speaking,

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Speaker 4: were probably at the bottom of a of a channel

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Speaker 4: that's still got an upward trend to it. So I'm

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Speaker 4: not giving up on the dollar. I think it's still

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Speaker 4: going to remain a vitally important currency.

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Speaker 3: Edgar Denny, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: Just thrilled with your effort for Edgear Denny's important nodes.

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Speaker 2: Go to your Denny Research. We greatly appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We are strong here at the end of August forget

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Speaker 2: about the summer. Dildos Henry out to Trey's wanders in

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Speaker 2: the Door and joins us here for an extended conversation. Okay,

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Speaker 2: if you go to eight sources, there's what you do

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Speaker 2: with VEDA partners. I look at Amy Walter summing it

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Speaker 2: up at the political report. The Jerry Mander uproar is about,

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Speaker 2: so what will Latino voters do? Who's winning the high

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Speaker 2: ground for twenty six and twenty eight with Latino voters.

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Speaker 8: I don't know that there's a high ground to be

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Speaker 8: one right now, but there definitely is a regret trade

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Speaker 8: on the Trump side, and you're seeing a migration, which

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Speaker 8: is very normal for any majority party.

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Speaker 9: To come back.

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Speaker 8: So I wouldn't say that Democrats are winning per se,

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Speaker 8: but Trump is not continuing to win.

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Speaker 2: Do you look at the multiple state Jerrymander debate and

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Speaker 2: say I have a winner or is it an unknown unknown?

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Speaker 8: I think it has to be a permanent state of wartime,

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Speaker 8: and I think that these gerrymandering redistricting cases are going

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Speaker 8: to be a constant source of what we see as

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Speaker 8: long as the two parties remain as competitive as they are.

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Speaker 8: When you have margins that are this slim in the house,

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Speaker 8: you kind of have to keep up with the Joneses,

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Speaker 8: and so whatever Republicans do, Democrats are going to do,

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Speaker 8: and vice versa.

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Speaker 5: Henry, it it seemed like the market, at least the

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Speaker 5: equity markets, to put the trade concerns kind of in

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Speaker 5: a river mirror. But then I see President Trump announcing

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Speaker 5: major tariff on furniture, So I forgot all about that

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Speaker 5: sector stuff that could be material. Talk to us about

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Speaker 5: like what's going on at the sector level, because I

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Speaker 5: thought all this was in the rearview mirror.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I think the whole street would like it to

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Speaker 8: be in the rear view mirror. But I honestly, and

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Speaker 8: I know this is a lot to say, I think

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Speaker 8: the second half of this year is going to be

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Speaker 8: more volatile on tariffs than the first half of this year.

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Speaker 8: And that's because as soon as this week, if not

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Speaker 8: in the next couple weeks, the Federal Circuit Court of

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Speaker 8: Appeals has been to rule on whether the President has

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Speaker 8: the authority to maintain these AIPA tariffs, which is where

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Speaker 8: we're getting two point seven trillion.

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Speaker 9: Dollars worth of revenue happens.

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Speaker 8: Well, it's widely anticipated that the courts are going to

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Speaker 8: side with the Court of International Trade, which determined unanimously

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Speaker 8: that Trump does not have the authority to impose these tariffs.

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Speaker 8: So what must happen thereafter is the President has to

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Speaker 8: pivot to Section two thirty two and three zero one tariffs,

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Speaker 8: which is where the furniture announcement came from So for clients,

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Speaker 8: what I've said for the last couple of weeks now

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Speaker 8: is watch to see if the administration starts to launch

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Speaker 8: new investigations on a sector basis, And they launched two

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Speaker 8: last week win turbines and furniture. And it's because the

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Speaker 8: Department of Justice is aware that they're very likely to

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Speaker 8: lose this case and the entire IEPA structure will be upending.

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Speaker 3: So is the simplistic phrase, it doesn't go to the

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Speaker 3: Supreme Court?

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Speaker 9: It doesn't, it does?

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Speaker 3: It will?

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Speaker 9: I mean that's the expectation if they choose to take

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Speaker 9: it up, Yes, which they will.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the Trump and the administration they're on a

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Speaker 5: winning streak here. I mean, they've got tons of momentum.

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Speaker 5: It just feels like, so why wouldn't they take everything

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Speaker 5: to the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 8: They're certainly going to try. They're obviously telegraphing that this

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Speaker 8: is going to be the biggest disaster since the nineteen

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Speaker 8: twenties if they don't have this continued tariff authority, which

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Speaker 8: is ironic because obviously that's the last time we had

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Speaker 8: tariffs of this magnitude in the first place. But the

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Speaker 8: administration is definitely prepared to go to the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 8: and they're very likely to lose at the Court of Appeals.

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Speaker 8: And it becomes is this a constitutional legal case or

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Speaker 8: is it more about politics? And that's where you're winning

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Speaker 8: sort of argument comes in.

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Speaker 5: So, I mean, I guess investors here we should not

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Speaker 5: get too complacent. Is that kind of what we're saying here? No,

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Speaker 5: because the stock market's setting all time highs here and

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Speaker 5: it seems again the market seems so discounted that risk

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Speaker 5: here a little bit.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think the number one thing I'd say is

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Speaker 8: that when Powell says we could see tariffs be a

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Speaker 8: one and done kind of event, think about what's happening.

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Speaker 8: We're getting deminimus changed for I don't know the fourth, fifth, sixth.

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Speaker 9: Time this week.

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Speaker 8: We're getting fifty percent tires put on India. Now we're

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Speaker 8: having additional tires put on furniture. Those tariffs are going

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Speaker 8: on countries that we already have fifty percent TIFFs on, whether.

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Speaker 9: It's India, China, Vietnam.

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Speaker 8: I mean, the sector analysts are the ones that are

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Speaker 8: really going to struggle for the back half this year.

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Speaker 2: What is Henrietta Tres's inside story on the body language

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Speaker 2: from a collective White House. The perception is it's all

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Speaker 2: about President Trump. I get that, But are the cabinet

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Speaker 2: members and the advisors are they working?

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Speaker 4: Is one.

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Speaker 8: I think it's everything everywhere, all at once. If you

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Speaker 8: are a cabinet secretary for Defense or the IRS or

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Speaker 8: Treasury or wherever, find an issue that you can seize

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Speaker 8: on and blow it out of the water, whatever you

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Speaker 8: can do to draw attention to whatever your issue is

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Speaker 8: of the day. We're looking for all news items, all

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Speaker 8: headlines at all times.

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Speaker 5: Midterms, I don't know, it's a year away. What's the

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Speaker 5: current thinking about midterms?

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Speaker 8: Heare current thinking is basically the default to conventional wisdom,

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Speaker 8: which is that on average, the majority party loses twenty

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Speaker 8: four seats in the House. And I think Democrats are

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Speaker 8: more and more excited about the opportunities that they have

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Speaker 8: in the United States Senate with Sheret Brown and Ohio,

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Speaker 8: with Tom Tillis dropping out in North Carolina, seeing Susan

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Speaker 8: Collins in Maine, they launched a new candidate in the

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Speaker 8: last couple of weeks. Everybody's excited, ready to get into

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Speaker 8: the election probably be a pretty high turned out event.

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Speaker 9: So do you feel that the Senate's in play barely?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, want to be too optimistic about it. I would

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Speaker 8: anticipate that Republicans are still the majority next year.

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Speaker 9: And in the House, I think the House should flip.

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Speaker 8: Just statistically, they should flip by anywhere between you know,

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Speaker 8: five and twenty five seats.

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Speaker 3: Take us back to Civix one on one, What does

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Speaker 3: that mean for the president?

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Speaker 8: That means indictments, That means all day, every day, oversight, investigation,

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Speaker 8: subpoenas for every cabinet, secretary, every official. You'll usually see

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Speaker 8: massive turnover in an administration in that scenario, but Trump's

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Speaker 8: life gets very uncomfortable, which is obviously why they're trying

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Speaker 8: so hard to redistrict Texas for example.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're so savvy at this, and Paul's got eighteen

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Speaker 2: questions I should cut in by hand. Is he a

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Speaker 2: lame duck the first Wednesday of November twenty twenty six?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 9: Absolutely.

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Speaker 8: If Democrats win the House the second they're sworn in,

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Speaker 8: over it's over.

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Speaker 9: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: But you know, in this administration, he's doing so much

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Speaker 8: with tariffs and executive actions that even though he's already

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Speaker 8: a lame duck president, already the last administration that he'll have. It's,

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Speaker 8: you know, guns blazing all the way, no shortage of activity.

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Speaker 5: So is there any sense that the Democratic Party needs

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Speaker 5: a just a fundamental redo to really challenge not just

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Speaker 5: President Trump here, but you know, maybe the President Trumps supporters,

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Speaker 5: that the MAGA supporters, and just that that that branch

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Speaker 5: of the Republican Party which seems to be in such

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Speaker 5: control of that party. Is there sense that the Democratic

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Speaker 5: Party needs a complete rebrand?

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Speaker 9: Absolutely?

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Speaker 8: And I think they're having that fight, and they keep

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Speaker 8: launching new little child balloons.

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Speaker 9: Something's got to stick, but they're trying.

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Speaker 3: Henrietta Trees with a.

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Speaker 2: Saveta partner, thrilled to ever in the studio here to

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Speaker 2: get your last week of the summer started futures at

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Speaker 2: negative twenty, the Vicks of fourteen level pulls back fifteen

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Speaker 2: point one four.

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Speaker 3: But there is a cadence in August cadence to it

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Speaker 3: right now, a lot of good economic data coming up

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Speaker 3: this week. How's the mayor?

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Speaker 2: Yes? Is there an the national interest in the mayor

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Speaker 2: race of New York City? Mister momma DONI I guess

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Speaker 2: trouble work in the bar this weekend.

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Speaker 8: I saw that I don't think I could bench one

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Speaker 8: hundred and thirty five. I'm pretty sure that's not what

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Speaker 8: I trained for. But yeah, no, I think that there's

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Speaker 8: a lot of interest because of the attention that it's

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Speaker 8: captured in New York City and the number of you know,

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Speaker 8: extremely high net worth, very involved social advocates in the

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Speaker 8: finance world even that really want to see this race

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Speaker 8: go in a different direction. When I go to client

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Speaker 8: meetings and I'll be doing that all week, we talk

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Speaker 8: about it a lot. People feel very intently about it

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Speaker 8: and making sure that there's some other direction.

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Speaker 9: People get excited.

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Speaker 5: All right, it's September. I don't have to worry about

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Speaker 5: my government shutting down. Soon's what's going on in Washington

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Speaker 5: when the folks come back from their recess.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I do think we have to worry about a shutdown.

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Speaker 8: I'm at twenty five percent ons that we shut down

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Speaker 8: on October first.

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Speaker 9: That's really high for me.

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Speaker 8: I'm usually fade that whole noise, and I'm at five

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Speaker 8: percent ordinarily.

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Speaker 9: But this year, to your exact point about.

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Speaker 8: Democrats not having a message, Chuck Schumer got you know,

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Speaker 8: steamrolled for not shutting the government down when he had

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Speaker 8: the chance. In the first quarter of this year, and

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Speaker 8: I think this is the next best opportunity. It also

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Speaker 8: serves to gum up the works for the majority party,

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Speaker 8: so the minority generally likes to have really short lived crs.

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Speaker 9: When we get back, we're.

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Speaker 8: Going to debate something called the National Defense Authorization Act,

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Speaker 8: which is roughly nine hundred and thirty billion dollars of

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Speaker 8: spending on defense, which will complicate you know, the FEDCE

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Speaker 8: nomination of Stephen Miron. There's a lot that they need

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Speaker 8: to do.

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Speaker 3: It goes through the pacifics of this.

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Speaker 2: Again, if the Democrats are in the minority, they can

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Speaker 2: affect a government shutdown.

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Speaker 9: Yes, exactly, yeah to our global audience. Sure.

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Speaker 8: So the senator, the Republican senators have fifty three seats,

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Speaker 8: and you need sixty votes to keep the government open.

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Speaker 8: And it's usually this very contentious debate, and everybody hems

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Speaker 8: and haws and fights about pork barrel spending and you know,

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Speaker 8: individual military bases in their distracting. You get a very protracted,

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Speaker 8: long debate about how to fund the Department of Education

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Speaker 8: or Justice or commerce. And the minority party is in

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Speaker 8: a position of power because they're going to need to

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Speaker 8: deliver probably what will be ten to twenty seats, especially

443
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 8: on the House side. Hakiem Jeffries is going to be

444
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 8: responsible for delivering the bulk of the votes for whatever

445
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 8: government funding bill they passed.

446
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 9: He doesn't want to do that right well, which which

447
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 9: is why you shut down.

448
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 5: But I mean, but do I want to who gets

449
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 5: the blame for shutdown there? Is it the majority party

450
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 5: or is it the Democrats who in fact did not

451
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 5: deliver the votes.

452
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 8: Historically the president takes the blame. The longest shut down

453
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 8: in history was under President Trump. You shut it down

454
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 8: for thirty five days in that war with Pelosi over Christmas.

455
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 8: It's usually the Republican Party just because they have been

456
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 8: the ones who were willing to shut it down. Democrats

457
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 8: generally believe that the government is here to do good,

458
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 8: so they like to keep it open.

459
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 9: But we'll see if that holds this time around.

460
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 2: Have you been in Washington for the National Guard? Do

461
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: you have an anecdotal observation?

462
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 8: I have not seen it, not live. I hear a

463
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 8: lot about it. My friends are all there, but I

464
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 8: haven't been there since it got launched.

465
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 3: No, you're on recess, that's.

466
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 5: I mean, it just seems like the Trump administrations on

467
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 5: a role. Yeah, any way you look at it, He's

468
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,959
Speaker 5: winning almost everywhere, in every facet.

469
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 10: Is that the feeling?

470
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: Yeah?

471
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 2: And Greg Vaillier's note this morning, he's piercing. He says

472
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 2: there's a complete underestimation of support the nation is giving

473
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 2: him for some of these topics.

474
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 3: Is that true?

475
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 8: That is absolutely true. I mean I lived down in Louisiana.

476
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 8: I was out in the Marsh and grand Isle all weekend.

477
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 8: I mean, you see Trump flags everywhere you go, Trump

478
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 8: flags for twenty twenty eight.

479
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 9: The support is very real.

480
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 8: Even as they're paying the tariffs, even as prices remain

481
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 8: high at grocery stores, they do not care. And all

482
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 8: these opportunities to win are well translated.

483
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 3: This is a joy.

484
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: Come back again when you're on recess. Henrietta Trees with

485
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 2: his holst of Veda Park and just lover work.

486
00:24:58,720 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 3: Stay with us.

487
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

488
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

489
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

490
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

491
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg

492
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: terminal the.

493
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 2: UNADI Goldberg Joints US now head of the US Rates

494
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 2: Strategy TD Securities. First thing I did this morning. It

495
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,719
Speaker 2: was mentioned repeatedly at Jackson Hole. The Japanese thirty year

496
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 2: twenty year gives way, price down, yield higher, The United

497
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 2: Kingdom thirty year guilt a new high, new recent high,

498
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: going back decades and decades, price down, yield up.

499
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 3: Can the same thing happen here?

500
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean certainly could. I mean, it's why you've

501
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 11: got the US Treasury talking about issuing a lot more

502
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 11: at the front end. You know, they're not looking to

503
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 11: issue a lot more thirty years. In fact, I'm surprised

504
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 11: that Sexuary Vestment hasn't pulled out that trump card, which

505
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 11: is basically threatening to decrease the size of twenty and

506
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 11: thirty year auction sizes. That's something that they could undertake

507
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 11: if they feel like supplying demands out of balance like

508
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 11: it is in the UK in Japan, and those governments

509
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 11: are already talking about issuing fewer long end bonds.

510
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 5: So we heard Fed Cherman Jpal definitely go a little

511
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 5: bit dubbish last week. How do you think the Fed's

512
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 5: going to proceed with their easing cycle. Is it twenty

513
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 5: five here, wait and see how the data is another

514
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 5: twenty five, wait and see how.

515
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 3: The data is.

516
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 11: Cautiously, I would say, you know, it's interesting. This cutting

517
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 11: cycle sort of breaks the mold of most cutting cycles.

518
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 11: Usually it's you know, escalator up, elevator down on rates.

519
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 11: This is quite the opposite. It's elevator up, escalator down.

520
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 11: You know, they're very cautiously cutting rates. I think they

521
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 11: do it very very gradually, you know TD we're thinking September, October,

522
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 11: December cuts, then switching to a quarterly pace. I think

523
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 11: we usually when they start to go, they want to

524
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 11: go more than once. They know one twenty five basepain

525
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 11: cut doesn't do much. But I think they're going to

526
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 11: keep a very close eye on the data. If the

527
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 11: data doesn't tell them that they should be cutting, they

528
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 11: can pause, they can skip meetings. This is going to

529
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 11: be a strange one.

530
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 2: Is it in the market or will there be a

531
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: shock in bonds? Is this unfolds like the shock we

532
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: saw inequities on Friday?

533
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 11: Well, it's eighty eighty five percent price or September right now,

534
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 11: the pricing for the rest of the year, there's about

535
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,479
Speaker 11: thirty five basis points or so priced in, so call

536
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 11: it fifty sixty percent of each of September, October, and December.

537
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 11: The market knows that it doesn't know, and that pricing

538
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 11: is going to get refined as we get closer. The

539
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 11: problem is we're all looking at the same data prints

540
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 11: over and over and over again, and every time we

541
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 11: get print, the market adjusts and then we move on

542
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 11: to the next one.

543
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 2: If your scenario works out, will there be a shortage

544
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 2: of longer dated paper?

545
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 11: I think we're far from that, To be quite honest,

546
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,239
Speaker 11: I think there's We're far from a shortage of long

547
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 11: data paper. I think that's why the Treasury is issuing

548
00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 11: in the front end. They view the demand as being

549
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 11: one higher there. It'll bring rates down, but it'll you know,

550
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 11: what's known as bull steep in the curve, will bring

551
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,239
Speaker 11: all rates lower, front end rates faster, the long end

552
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 11: will simply lag. You know, I don't think long end

553
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 11: rates go higher, but I think they come down.

554
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 3: I have real trouble with this jargon, like I've flunked

555
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,719
Speaker 3: it three times. In the CFA is at a bull steepener?

556
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 3: In what way is that bull meaning? Good.

557
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 11: So all interest rates lower, but the front end really

558
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 11: leading the way. So you'll have kind of five year

559
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 11: and under rates really dropping down much faster because they're

560
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 11: responding to FED rate cuts. The long end will come

561
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 11: down as well, just because of term structure of interest rates,

562
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 11: but it'll come down at a much lower pace, so

563
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 11: you'll still have longer dated rates relatively elevated.

564
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 3: I listened to that point and I still couldn't pass

565
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 3: it on the exact.

566
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,479
Speaker 5: I think I think I got it. As an equity guy,

567
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 5: I think I got it. Ten year treasury yielding four

568
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 5: point two eighty percent?

569
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 9: What do you think that is?

570
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 6: Year end?

571
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 11: We're thinking four percent by your end, so we're a

572
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 11: little bit lower, not too much. We've got, you know,

573
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 11: three rate cuts penciled in, like I said, and that's

574
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 11: the thing. Most of that will be in the very

575
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 11: front end of the curve, So five years and under,

576
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 11: I think that's where a lot of investors are hiding

577
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 11: out at the moment. Nobody really wants six cent out

578
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 11: into twenty and thirty year space. But there's been some defying.

579
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 11: You saw the twenty year auction last week went off

580
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 11: fairly well. You know, there was a concern that nobody

581
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 11: would want to take it. Now you're starting to see

582
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 11: a little bit of difying depending on the valuations.

583
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 5: So the Fed are they focusing more on the labor

584
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 5: market at this point and feeling like inflation's kind of

585
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 5: in check or is that how they're thinking about it.

586
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 6: That's really the shift to jackson Hole.

587
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 11: If you look at the minutes of the last meeting,

588
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 11: which came out last week, and then we're instantly dated

589
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 11: because they thought the onus is really on the inflation

590
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 11: data and that was the risk Powell's remarks, as jackson

591
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 11: Hole basically said, well, now the labor market's at risk.

592
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 11: Inflation is not quite as much of a risk as

593
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 11: we thought. It is still very much a risk. Let's

594
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 11: be frank. The Fed is not committing to anything. They're

595
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 11: watching everything, but it's really on the data to dissuade

596
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 11: them from in September rather than persuading them to.

597
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 6: Cut in September.

598
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: Wait, I don't know.

599
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 5: I just see like all these teriffs, including just the

600
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 5: furniture thing that came out of nowhere. For at least

601
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 5: for me, that kind of feels like inflation to me

602
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 5: seems to be a real concern and I'd be maybe

603
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 5: sitting on the sidelines, but I guess the pressure is

604
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 5: for them to do something.

605
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 11: Well, really, what really matters here is services inflation. We

606
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 11: know goods inflation is going to be hit. We know,

607
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 11: you know, all these trade disruptions are going to hit

608
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 11: that good side. If that starts to translate into services,

609
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 11: So your barber starts to increase the price of haircuts

610
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 11: because the razors are more expensive. Right, that would be

611
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 11: troublesome because that really feeds through into the economy in

612
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 11: unpredicted ways.

613
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 6: They don't know yet. The next one is going to

614
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 6: be a little bit hot, but we're expecting that to

615
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 6: calm down a little bit over the next couple months.

616
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 2: One final question, TD is Toronto Dominion wonderful? Great to

617
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: seats that make believe that garden you know, the TD,

618
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: like it's the TD arena, right.

619
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, the food is awesome.

620
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: I gave it speech up there last year and went

621
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: in and like the food is like the dive divers

622
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 2: the leaf's loss.

623
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 3: You know it's appropriate. Canedy Are Canadians buying less US

624
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: full faith and credit paper?

625
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 11: Interestingly enough, no, we did see foreign investors generally shedding

626
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 11: US holdings back in the April data. The data since

627
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 11: then has basically showing you a full bown rebound. No

628
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 11: one's really you know, that sell America trade that everyone

629
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 11: was talking about for months and months, it's not really

630
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 11: going on in it is the hedge America trade. That's

631
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 11: what's happening right now. So you hedge the foreign exchange

632
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 11: component of it. You still buy the assets, but you

633
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 11: realize the dollar is probably going to continue to offten

634
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 11: a little bit, and you hedge that dollar exposure.

635
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 3: That kid McCormick at TED Securities, I don't know. I mean,

636
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 3: are you guys modeling a week dollar?

637
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 6: We're thinking of a slightly weaker dollar, so about three

638
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 6: to five percent lower by your end. You're hedging out

639
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 6: your trade exactly.

640
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: That's too much thinking for one. This has been brilliant. Seriously,

641
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 2: Goodnightni Goldberg. He is with Ted Security. He's talked her

642
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: on a dominion. Can't say enough about his work on

643
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 2: full faith you credit.

644
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 3: Stay with us.

645
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

646
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

647
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

648
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

649
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

650
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 5: Got some newspapers here with Lisa Matteo. Tom, I mean

651
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 5: it's been I mean people just want this forget about

652
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 5: all this stuff. We do want newspapers, Lisa Matteo and.

653
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: Then stock Mores. It's just too much. We have to

654
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 3: talk to man. Yeah, continue newspapers, what do you go,

655
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 3: let's go. H.

656
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 9: This one's from Business Insider.

657
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,239
Speaker 10: Okay, so it's saying a Harvard professor he's talking out

658
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 10: about how AI is.

659
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 9: Doing more harm than good in education.

660
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 10: So this was a really interesting read. His name is

661
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 10: Alex Green, and he's telling Business Insider that it's undermining

662
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 10: the relationship between teachers and students. And the reason why

663
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 10: is because it's saying there's this loss of fundamental communication

664
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 10: skills like knowledge and reasoning. Like you have some students

665
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 10: complaining that they write this twenty page paper and then

666
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 10: all they get back is like these tiny little comments

667
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 10: and then a mediocre grade. And they're saying that teachers

668
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 10: are using chat GPT to review their their twenty page

669
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 10: paper get the comments.

670
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 9: So that's one side.

671
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 10: Then you have the other side too, or it says

672
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 10: that you know, the students are losing communication skills, but

673
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 10: he also points out another factor that AI could start

674
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 10: hurting their career opportunities too, and he said it's frustrating

675
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 10: for him because it's his job, it's a teacher, to

676
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 10: help them get jobs.

677
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 9: So that's yeah.

678
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 5: I don't know how this whole it's a giv.

679
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: Education.

680
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know how they're going to manage it.

681
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 2: I find it an immense value. But I see the kids,

682
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 2: including various offspring I'm identified with.

683
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: You know, I'm sorry, they're just not working like we work.

684
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 10: I guess the creative aspect of it you kind of

685
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 10: lose because you just type it in and say, hey,

686
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 10: tell me to do this too.

687
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 3: You got three chapters. By Monday morning, there will be

688
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 3: a quiz and that's gone. Yeah, I don't know.

689
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a different it is.

690
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 10: Okay, this next one, I'm not sure if you've seen

691
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 10: the movie, but a big milestone for an animated musical

692
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 10: that was released by Netflix.

693
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 9: Take a listen.

694
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 10: Okay, that is Capop Demon Hunters. Okay, Ken Faliot knows

695
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 10: all the moves to the song. Okay, So just in

696
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 10: case you missed it, it's about this fictional female pop group.

697
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 10: They're facing off against a rival boy band who were

698
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 10: actually demons, so that's a competept behind. It a debut

699
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 10: on Netflix Bake back in like June twentieth, and it

700
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 10: did so well that Netflix decided to release it this

701
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 10: past Saturday and Sunday in theater as a singalong. Okay,

702
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 10: it was the top the box office in North America,

703
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 10: if you can believe it. Variety says expected to gross

704
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 10: up to twenty million dollars over the weekend from that.

705
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 10: And in case you miss it, the singalong version is

706
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 10: actually coming back to Netflix starting today. So they're really like, really,

707
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 10: you guys know what's going off of this. Let's it's

708
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 10: K pop Demon Hunters.

709
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 3: We'll do their music tomorrow.

710
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 10: But it is, but the soundtrack top Billboard and Spotify

711
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 10: charts and it's not a real group.

712
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 5: Now, I mean, what is the demo here?

713
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 6: Say young kids?

714
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 9: It's it's young kids. I think teens. Yeah, Like my

715
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 9: sister said, her kids are into it. My daughter's not,

716
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 9: but some some are all right. But it's a huge,

717
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 9: huge hit, quick one. Okay.

718
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 10: A lot of stories about the housing market, right, so

719
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 10: this is a growing trend. More buyers are asking to

720
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 10: stay overnight at a home before buying it. Yeah, they're

721
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 10: like a sleepover. Okay, it's like a test drive. Okay,

722
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 10: there are there. It could be a price for it.

723
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 10: One buyer agreed to pay two months to one hundred

724
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 10: and fifty thousand dollars each month that he stayed because

725
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 10: it included the staff, to the cars that were on

726
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 10: the property, that kind of thing. But some people just

727
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 10: do an overnight for free, and they're saying that this

728
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 10: is becoming like a real thing that people want to

729
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 10: start giving a little the house.

730
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 5: Short state, because I'm very close to the train tracks

731
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 5: and it's not the sound of the train itself, it's

732
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 5: the dude blowing the horn on the train.

733
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 10: So if you would have known that beforehand, Okay, see

734
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,399
Speaker 10: see you learn these by staying in the house.

735
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. That was a golden report.

736
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

737
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,399
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

738
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

739
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

740
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,600
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741
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

742
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 3: Inga had pried