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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Perrault. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt, and we have hit a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a cold spell. It's been not a great week

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Speaker 2: for us here for the last week of July. We've

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Speaker 2: done well in the month, but not so much coming

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Speaker 2: up for this week. We had a pretty down day

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Speaker 2: yesterday one in three down two point eight two units.

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Speaker 2: Brewers were the play of the day that went down

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Speaker 2: more than that here in just one second. Phillies on

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Speaker 2: the money line that lost as well. Unfortunately, player props

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Speaker 2: continue to be sort of this like you know, one

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Speaker 2: in one, one in one, one in one. It's just

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Speaker 2: this ongoing thing. I don't really know why that's been happening,

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Speaker 2: but that's just the way we've gone with player props.

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Speaker 2: It's it's been pretty much a one in one night

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Speaker 2: almost every time we get out there and play it.

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Speaker 2: But Cubs win the game ten to three over the Brewers.

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Speaker 2: White Sox beat the Phillies nine to three, so that

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Speaker 2: results in a losing day for us here. On a Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: So here is the Major League Baseball trade deadline today,

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Speaker 2: not betting baseball, given the trades we have already seen,

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Speaker 2: given that we could have a couple of monsters. Showiatani

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Speaker 2: left the game last night after what six straight balls,

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Speaker 2: and we'll see what the actual injury might be to Atani.

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Speaker 2: So the Dodgers might be active, more active than they

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Speaker 2: thought they were going to be. If Atani's re injured

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Speaker 2: again and can't pitch or maybe even can't hit, you

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Speaker 2: know they're gonna go to the trade deadline and be

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Speaker 2: incredibly active. The Diamondbacks have got a ton of players

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Speaker 2: they can trade.

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Speaker 1: We'll see what.

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Speaker 2: You know, contending teams, Yankees, Red Sox, what do they do?

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Speaker 2: Are the Twins gonna sell off everybody? You know? What

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Speaker 2: will the Marlins do with Sandy l Contra? What would

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Speaker 2: the Twins do with you know, Joe Ryans? All sorts

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Speaker 2: of pitchers might be moving, might not be moving.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. We got burned a bit yesterday.

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Speaker 2: With a change in starting pitching that happened because of

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Speaker 2: a potential trade. So I'm gonna stay away in baseball

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Speaker 2: today and that and I'm not interested in the WNBA

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Speaker 2: right now, it's just not really something that I'm doing

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Speaker 2: well with. So I'm gonna stay awavement. So we're gonna

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Speaker 2: do college football. I'm gonna give you three more bets

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Speaker 2: in college football that you guys can make for today,

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Speaker 2: And if you want to hold off on it, you

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Speaker 2: want to wait, that's fine, But I've got some logic

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Speaker 2: as to how we're gonna do it and the reasons

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Speaker 2: behind why betting now, just to kind of refresh if

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Speaker 2: you haven't seen where we are or what we have

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Speaker 2: already bet for the Daily Juice, we have gone a

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Speaker 2: lot with the Big ten for some interesting reason. It's

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Speaker 2: not really I don't think it's been on purpose that

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Speaker 2: we've been so kind of committed and focused on the

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Speaker 2: Big ten. But you know, I think that there's opportunities

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Speaker 2: that will present this self, you know, money wise, for

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Speaker 2: us to be able to jump in with the Big ten.

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Speaker 2: So right now, first bet was Ohio State over ten

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Speaker 2: and a half wins at plus one twenty. We took

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Speaker 2: Penn State under ten and a half wins at mis

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Speaker 2: one thirty five, and we took Georgia to win the

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Speaker 2: SEC's championship at plus three sixty. That bet actually has

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Speaker 2: increased in value. Let me see what that bet at

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Speaker 2: plus three sixty. I think we've seen some Georgia money

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Speaker 2: that has come in for the SEC championship, and let

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Speaker 2: me see for for the SEC.

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Speaker 1: For the future sor are we going to roll through that?

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Speaker 2: There?

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Speaker 1: It is conference winners in the SEC.

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Speaker 2: We have plus three sixty plus three thirty plus two

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Speaker 2: ninety plus two eighty depending on where you are. So

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Speaker 2: you can SI get Georgia at a pretty good price

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Speaker 2: at plus three thirty to win the Big ten if

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Speaker 2: you want to go ahead and trail that at Ohio

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Speaker 2: State as well, if you want to jump in with

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Speaker 2: Ohio State and then Penn State under I got another

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Speaker 2: You know, if I think Ohio State's going over ten

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Speaker 2: and a half wins, which I do, and Penn State's

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Speaker 2: going under ten and a half wins, well, the third

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Speaker 2: team is Michigan. Let's talk about Michigan a little bit here,

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Speaker 2: and we'll get to their schedule, and then I have

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Speaker 2: a game I want to break down in week two,

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Speaker 2: which you might go, what, Well, there's a reason why

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Speaker 2: I think we should bet right now, because I don't

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Speaker 2: think this number is going to last for very long.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to Once we get really into college

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Speaker 2: football people, we're gonna wake up and realize, like.

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Speaker 1: Wait, what's the number? This is not numbers too low.

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Speaker 2: So before we do that, a reminder of the offer

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Speaker 2: day free trial. For the prop bet cheat sheet the

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Speaker 2: prop bet Analyzer, you guys can make your own analysis.

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Speaker 2: You can look at your own information with all the

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Speaker 2: data collected by the prop bet cheat sheet and the

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Speaker 2: prop bet Analyzer, plus other picks and plays all on

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Speaker 2: in the upgrade screen to get a seven day free trial.

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Speaker 2: for you on the Betting Pros app with Betting pros Premium.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's start with Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Here's the thing, So Penn State under Ohio state over right,

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Speaker 2: So here's Michigan and what they could do do I

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Speaker 2: think they run the table. Well, you tell me, you

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Speaker 2: tell me here when it comes to their schedule. Sorry

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Speaker 2: about that. Here is the schedule. This is Michigan schedule

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Speaker 2: on your screen. I'm gonna read it for you guys

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Speaker 2: on the podcast on the audio. New Mexico at home,

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma on the road, Central Michigan at home, Nebraska on

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Speaker 2: the road, Wisconsin at home, USC on the road, Washington

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Speaker 2: at home, Michigan State on the road, Perdue at home,

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Speaker 2: Northwest Stern in Maryland on the road. And they end

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Speaker 2: of the year at home against Ryan Day and Ohio

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Speaker 2: State and a team that Michigan has simply owned owned.

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Speaker 2: There's just no debate. They've owned them. Now, different year,

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Speaker 2: different season. But if you look at Michigan and where

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Speaker 2: most metrics have them, they have them as maybe the

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Speaker 2: top defense in college football, like they're gonna be really,

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Speaker 2: really tough, at least on paper. Right now, Michigan's defense

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Speaker 2: is going to be one of the best in all

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Speaker 2: of college football. The schedule strength is wild, because I'm

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Speaker 2: going to read you what the analytics are spitting out

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Speaker 2: here from ESPN and what they think the schedule strength

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Speaker 2: is for Michigan. New Mexico is one hundred and thirtieth,

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma is sixteenth, Central Michigan is one seventeenth, Nebraska's thirty fourth,

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Speaker 2: Wisconsin thirty seventh, USC is thirtieth, Washington is thirty ninth,

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Speaker 2: Michigan state sixty fourth, Perdue one hundred and first, Northwestern

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Speaker 2: eighty seven seventy from Maryland in number one for Ohio State. Now, okay,

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Speaker 2: you can go, well, Matt hold on second. You know

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Speaker 2: there's some guys that they're kind of clothes that aren't horrible,

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Speaker 2: and they're playing the number one team in the country. Well,

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Speaker 2: here's the thing. If Sharon Moore can get these guys

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Speaker 2: rolling and get these guys to buy in with a

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Speaker 2: brand new quarterback, Bryce Underwood is a gigantic question mark,

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Speaker 2: but he's the number one player in the entire twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five recruiting class. The quarterback from Michigan. He is

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Speaker 2: being compared to Cam Newton. He's big, he's strong, he's physical,

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Speaker 2: he can run the football. In Sure, Michigan lost a

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Speaker 2: lot of talent off of last year's squad, but they've

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Speaker 2: got some really good players, and they've got to a

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Speaker 2: bunch of really good players transferring in as well, players

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Speaker 2: that you're gonna talk about players that we're gonna watch

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Speaker 2: all year, and if Bryce Underwood can go on the road, Now,

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be the big question for me with

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Speaker 2: Bryce Underwood. Can he go on the road? That Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: game is massive? That is a tough place to play.

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Speaker 2: Boomer sooner in your ear like crazy. But if they

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Speaker 2: can win that game, they'll beat Nebraska, they'll beat USC

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Speaker 2: they'll win all the home games. They'll play Michigan State

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Speaker 2: on the road, and that is a tricky game. I'm

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Speaker 2: not gonna lie, but they should. They should win that game. Okay,

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Speaker 2: they should win that game. And then it comes all

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Speaker 2: the way down to Ohio State. Can Michigan State go

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Speaker 2: undefeated with this schedule? No Oregon, no Penn State. All

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Speaker 2: they're playing is Michigan State in Ohio State. Rival games

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Speaker 2: for sure. But if they get to Ohio State at

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Speaker 2: eleven and oh we have an awesome hedge opportunity, an

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Speaker 2: awesome hedge opportunity to jump in with Michigan to go

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Speaker 2: undefeated in the regular season. That is a twelve to

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Speaker 2: one return for Michigan to run the table. That is

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Speaker 2: worth a flyer to go ahead and take them to

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Speaker 2: win to go undefeated. To win every game, but maybe

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Speaker 2: not the Ohio State game and they lose to the.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State but they could beat Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: They're at home. Okay, Ryan Day's gotta do it. He

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Speaker 2: can't beat Michigan. He's gotta go on the road to

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Speaker 2: do it.

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Speaker 1: Could he do it? Should he do it? Yeah? Probably?

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Speaker 1: But if they're eleven and oh and.

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Speaker 2: If Ohio State's eleven and oh awesome game in Michigan,

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Speaker 2: very possible both teams to be undefeated, and then we'll

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Speaker 2: bet Ohio State and kick our heels up and go Okay,

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Speaker 2: great man a nice profit, four, five, six units, depending

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Speaker 2: on what we're gonna do. So twelve to one Michigan

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Speaker 2: to go undefeated in the regular season for one unit.

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Speaker 2: Now you saw the other one on Michigan to win

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten championship.

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Speaker 1: Look, this is really possible. Okay.

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Speaker 2: Again, if they run the table, just get into the game, like,

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Speaker 2: just get into the game. Just get into the Big

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Speaker 2: Ten Championship game. Now, last year it was Oregon against

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Speaker 2: Penn State, and Penn State very might very well be

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Speaker 2: there again.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so that would cause this bet to lose.

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Speaker 2: But again, if they run the table, they should be

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Speaker 2: in the Big Ten Championship, depending on how the you know,

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Speaker 2: things break down and how the whole year unfolds. But

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Speaker 2: for the most part, you know, I think we're gonna

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Speaker 2: see Michigan eleven and one, ten and two at worst,

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Speaker 2: and that might even get them into the Big Ten

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Speaker 2: Championship game, depending on what the records wind up being.

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Speaker 1: Here it's nine to one.

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Speaker 2: It's nine to one, Okay, I'm sorry, you've got to

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Speaker 2: take that on Michigan given what they're gonna look like.

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Speaker 2: I know they went eight and five last year, but

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Speaker 2: there's seduble strength. It's outside the top twenty like that

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Speaker 2: they should as long as Underwood doesn't go belly up,

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Speaker 2: as long as he plays the way he's supposed to play.

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Speaker 2: I know the road trips can be treacherous, but I

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Speaker 2: think not playing Penn State is so big that as

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Speaker 2: a massive break for Michigan to not play Penn State

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Speaker 2: and only play Ohio State and then play Ohio State

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Speaker 2: in the last day, the last game of the regular season.

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Speaker 2: I'll take the flyer on the nine to one Michigan

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Speaker 2: to win the Big Ten at plus nine hundred year

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Speaker 2: for one unit. Finally, we go to the second week

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Speaker 2: of the college football season Iowa Iowa State. I have

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Speaker 2: been watching this game for a long time. I've been

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Speaker 2: to this game multiple times. I think up to seven

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Speaker 2: times I've seen Iowa in Iowa State play. This is

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Speaker 2: a weird number. I'm not even gonna go that deep,

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Speaker 2: but the fact that the number is Iowa State minus

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Speaker 2: one and a half. You have to lay this right

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Speaker 2: now before this goes to three. This thing is going

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Speaker 2: to be bet to three one. I don't like Iowa

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Speaker 2: this year. Okay, I'm down on the Hawkeyes. I don't

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Speaker 2: think I was gonna be that good. But it's Syhawk,

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Speaker 2: so I'll throw the records out. Iowa State de panted

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Speaker 2: the Hawkeyes last year by scoring twenty points on answered.

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Speaker 2: Basically not basically did twenty points unanswered to win twenty

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Speaker 2: to nineteen in last year's matchup. Matt Campbell is a

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Speaker 2: tremendous coach. But this number is three every year it's three.

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Speaker 2: Why is it only one and a half?

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Speaker 1: Last year?

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Speaker 2: Twenty to nineteen. The final score thirty twenty to thirteen.

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Speaker 2: The final score for.

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Speaker 1: In Ames.

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Speaker 2: Last time I played the game in Jack Trice win

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Speaker 2: for Iowa ten to seven. The win in Iowa City

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Speaker 2: for the Cyclones twenty seven to seventeen to win back

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Speaker 2: in ames for the Hawkeyes back time, back to back

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Speaker 2: with years because they skipped it because of the COVID year.

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Speaker 2: But in twenty nineteen, eighteen, seventeen, thirteen to three, forty

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Speaker 2: four forty one. Do you see the trend here? These

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Speaker 2: are all one or two score games. The home team

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Speaker 2: wins a lot, but the road team wins a lot too.

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Speaker 2: But this is typically a very tight football game that

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Speaker 2: goes under. Now, we'll see what the totals wind up being,

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Speaker 2: We'll see what weather comes in, we'll see what. I'm

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Speaker 2: not betting a total in July, okay, but most likely

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Speaker 2: the under is going to be a good play here

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Speaker 2: for the Syhawk game. I just think you go ahead

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Speaker 2: and jump in with Iowa State now, and let's see

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Speaker 2: what's up of closing line value we can get. Because

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Speaker 2: let's just say the number goes over three and it

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Speaker 2: winds up getting to four, which it could. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it could go to four. I mean, it's not crazy.

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Speaker 2: Depends on what Iowa look like in their first game.

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Speaker 2: If it crosses three and goes to three and a half,

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Speaker 2: we'll take Iowa plus three and a half and we'll

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Speaker 2: just try to middle it. We'll have one and a

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Speaker 2: half and we'll have three and a half and we'll

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Speaker 2: try to middle it. Like I know, it's not great

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Speaker 2: to have your money tied up this long, but I

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Speaker 2: think it's a good play. I think the number is wrong.

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Speaker 2: I think the numbers should be three. Iowa State minus

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Speaker 2: three and it's Iowa State minus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think when you're giving a gift like this in

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Speaker 2: the preseason, I think, get the jump on it. Go okay,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna give me this number. Now, this number should

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Speaker 2: be three. This number is always three. Home team favoritboy,

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Speaker 2: three home team is favorby one and a half in

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Speaker 2: this game in Iowa State should be the better football team,

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Speaker 2: because again I'm not high in Iowa this year. I

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Speaker 2: don't like what Kirk Farrins has got cooking, not a

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Speaker 2: fan of it. I like what Matt Campbell's got. Let's

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Speaker 2: go with Iowa State minus one and a half, and

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Speaker 2: hopefully the number gets bet up to three and a

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Speaker 2: half and we'll take Iowa during the week of the game.

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Speaker 1: Here. So it's not really a future.

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Speaker 2: It's just kind of grabbing a number right now which

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Speaker 2: I think is wrong, which is Iowa State minus one

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Speaker 2: and a half in the Syhawk Trophy Game versus Iowa Okay.

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Speaker 2: So three plays for college football today. Taking a break

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Speaker 2: from baseball, gonna cool it off for a little bit.

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Speaker 2: We'll pick it back up coming up on Friday, Michigan

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Speaker 2: win win the Big Ten at plus nine hundred for

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Speaker 2: one unit, Michigan to go undefeated in the regular season

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Speaker 2: at twelve to one for one unit, and the Syhawk

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Speaker 2: Game Iowa State Iowa minus one and a half for

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Speaker 2: the Cyclones. We're gonna lay the one and a half

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Speaker 2: to start here for one point one units. My name

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Speaker 2: is Matt Pearl. To guess and following me because all

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Speaker 2: my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you

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Speaker 2: guys get your podcasts, it is the Daily Juice.